🍜Contentment wins in a bubble prone, value starved age...

The process of unlocking success happens more efficiently when you work and learn with a mindset of contentment.

S3T PodCast October 17 2025

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In this Issue

🌱 1. Counterintuitive Key to Success: Contentment

• Success doesn’t come from restlessness — it comes from contentment.
• Apathy ≠ Contentment: apathy says “it’ll never be good,” while contentment says “this is good and getting better.”
• Leaders who stay calm, curious, and grounded in contentment learn and adapt faster than those driven by frustration or discontent.

🤖 2. New Value Equation in Tech

• “Software is no longer eating the world; it’s demanding a new one.” — Azeem Azhar
• True value = solving tomorrow’s problems, not chasing yesterday’s ROI.
• Our pricing models and expectations are outdated — we’re using old maps for new terrain.

💥 3. The Great AI Bubble

• Analysts estimate the AI bubble could be 17× bigger than the dot-com bubble.
• Mag 7 stocks now make up ⅓ of the S&P500 at high valuations.
• Early signs of AI fatigue: users turning off AI in search, creatives rejecting AI-made art.

💸 4. The “Debasement Trade”

• The U.S. dollar dropped 10% in six months — the steepest fall in 50 years.
• Investors are shifting to non-inflationary assets like gold and bitcoin.
• As Michael Saylor quips: “We call it saving our money.”

🛍️ 5. GPT Meets Retail

• Walmart is partnering with ChatGPT to sell products directly through conversation.
• Could disrupt traditional retail and search-based e-commerce models.
• Big question: will this create new value — or just redistribute existing demand?

📘 6. Rethinking Failure & Identity

• All the Cool Girls Get Fired reframes job loss as transformation, not tragedy.
• Being fired often reflects organizational weakness, not personal failure.
• Perfect reading for anyone navigating reinvention in a volatile economy.

🐕 7. Nature’s Insight: The Untamed Majority

• 80% of the world’s dogs aren’t pets — they’re free-ranging, self-reliant, and adaptive.
• A reminder: thriving systems balance independence and interdependence — just like resilient leaders and teams.

[change leadership]

The Calm Edge: Counterintuitive reasons why contentment is key to success

Many of us hold the notion that success somehow depends on being discontented and restless, and this spurs us on to greater success. It’s understandable why we would think this way, because discontentment feels like the opposite of apathy, ("Of course I want to be discontented - I don't want to be apathetic!!") but it’s important to dig a little deeper.

Apathy and Contentment are not the same thing

• Contentment says "this is good and it's getting better" 
• Apathy says "it'll never be good and I don't even care anymore" 

Now you might be thinking hold on this goes counter to everything I've ever known. Yes, probably so. Here's the twist:

Successfully creating value in today's complex accelerating operating environment inevitably requires you to go through cycles of try, fail, learn, try again.

People with a contented mindset get through these cycles faster than people who operate from a discontented, impatient, frustrated mindset.

The process of unlocking success happens more efficiently when you think, plan, work and learn with a mindset of contentment, NOT discontent.

Why is that?
Click here to access this weeks Change Leadership segment and learn how contentment fosters behaviors that succeed

Click here for an overview of the full Change Leadership Learning Series.

[emerging tech]

New world, new kinds of value

Software is no longer eating the world; it is demanding a new one says Azeem Azhar in his latest Sunday read on the shifting nature of value:

Azhar warns that our pricing mechanisms haven't adjusted to the new realities. We're using yesterday's models to price tomorrow's value, and the ways we've connected value creation and value capture are breaking apart.

The AI-energy-talent web is one example where this is playing out. Big investment outlays are happening in order to grab talent, chips, and hoped for market share. While talk of bubbles goes from whispers to headlines.

How big is the AI Bubble?

Julian Garran and the MacroStrategy Partners team (institutional investment advisors) believes the AI bubble is 17 times the size of the dot-com bubble and 4 times the size of the housing bubble (using calculations based on 19th-century Swedish economist Knut Wicksell's insights on capital efficiency).

The Bank of England noted that the Mag 7 now represent 1/3 of the S&P500, which is running a 25x P/E ratio - not as high as 1999 but very high.

This comes amid signs of AI-fatigue from corporate and consumers:

• This week at the New York Comic Con, DC Comics president Jim Lee vowed that DC Comics won't use AI "not now, not ever".
• Search users are turning off AI. The advice going around among GenZers: "When you do an online search, put -ai at the end of your search term or phrase."

The AI bubble is being funded by US dollars which are being debased (made worth less and less) as Wall Street is finally discovering this week.

The Debasement Trade - Wall Street finally gets it

Financial news outlets around the world are reacting to JPMorgan's comments about its own investors who worry that government issued currencies (US dollars included) are losing value due to governments inability to control inflation.

This is prompting a broad investor shift toward non-inflationary assets like gold and bitcoin. Good US and International summary here.

Of course this is nothing new for readers of S3T who have been tracking these issues for years:

• In the US, inflation is not measured accurately, and has not been for decades. (see Flawed inflation tracking and how to correct it)
• At the same time the federal governments tax income over-relies on individual vs corporate tax payers. (See Comparing taxes on individuals vs companies).
• This forces government to finance growing debts by increasing the money supply, which "devalues" the national currency (ie US dollars).

Persistent government deficits, inflation, and lack of fiscal responsibility have also been long noted in the crypto world, which is feeling a bit snarky this week as noted in NLWs Breakdown episode "Wall Street Discovers the "Debasement Trade."

In response to JPMorgan's use of the phrase "Debasement Trade", Michael Saylor is quoted as suggesting a less fancy, more straightforward phrase: "We call it 'saving our money.'" 😄

But wait there's more...GPT + Retail

Walmart will start selling its products via ChatGPT in a few months. OpenAI began offering single purchase items from Etsy and Shopify (shopping cart functionality on the way). The Walmart GPT partnership has interesting implications for Amazon and other large online retailers who relied on traditional web search and online ads for visibility.

Big Question: will this fuel economic growth, or just cannibalize the existing retail industry? If the GPT-ification of retail simply displaces other players, expect more layoffs and economic distress. This could increase the risk of an AI bubble pop.

Which takes us back to the opening theme of this episode - the shifting nature of value. What seemed to be valuable yesterday might not be valuable tomorrow. There are a lot of land grabs happening right now. It will be interesting to see if they really pay off.

[macro-economics]

Full Access Members: See the S3T Economic Dashboard for the Top 500+ US & International real-time economic indicators.

[Books]

💼 When someone says "You're Fired" they may not realize what they are admitting:

• "I'm not resourceful enough to manage this team through challenging times"
• "We weren't proactive enough about the financial risks facing our company"
• "I don't know how to set people up for success"
• "I am not good at recruiting and hiring the right people for the right roles"
• "I'm uncomfortable with and possibly jealous of strong talent"

Ironic that the people who get fired or laid off are the ones who feel ashamed.

Laura Brown and Kristina O'Neill want to change this. These two leaders - friends who both got fired from different jobs about 14 months apart - banded together to create a great new book "All The Cool Girls Get Fired".

The book gives readers resources to guide them through a career setback. Losing a job can make one feel a loss of worth and identity. But the truth is whatever skills and value you created in your previous job is still part of who you are and what you can do. Perfect for anyone who may have just lost their job - or those who want to establish a healthy relationship with their work.

Job losses have affected many in 2025. If the indicators are accurate, we'll continue to see heavy job losses going into 2026, meaning lots of people will probably be able to benefit from this book.

P.S. See also: Turn your Layoff into a Level-Up.

P.S.S Someone who seems to relish or take pride in firing people might not be a good person to work with.

[nature notes]

80% of the world's dogs are not pets

They never were pets. They're "free-ranging dogs", not strays most often found in India, Africa and other southern hemisphere or warmer regions. This fascinating introduction to free-ranging dogs describes why dogs are one of the most successful species on the planet and what scientists are continuing to learn from these amazing creatures.

We think of dogs as so close and familiar, yet we still know so little about their resilience - especially their ability to thrive inside or outside of human constructs.

Reminder for change leaders: thriving systems balance independence and interdependence — just like resilient leaders and teams.

Canis familiaris? Maybe Less Than You Think - bioGraphic

We think of them as pets, but the vast majority of the world’s dogs live free-range in the environment. Understanding them could be key to helping urban wildlife thrive.

bioGraphicMark Garrison

Premium S3T Resources for Paid Memberships: Curated list of the top web sites and online tools.

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