S3T Economic Experience Dashboard

Moderate + Severe Distress trend

Comparability note: 2025 Q4 and 2026 Q2 are legacy modeled estimates based on mixed adult- and household-level indicators. The 2026 Q3 point uses the current household-oriented model and data available through September 5. The line shows the sequence of published editions; it is not an official statistic, and the methodology break means changes should be interpreted as directional rather than precise.

Household distribution

Component pressure

These figures are weighted points in the 100-point ADI, not percentages of households. For example, Recurring Essentials at 22.3/30 means that this component contributes 22.3 points to the current total distress score.

Why the weights differ: there is no official or universally accepted standard requiring this 30/20/10/40 allocation. It is an S3T modeling choice that should be treated as provisional and tested against independent hardship measures. Employment Quality receives 10 points because it is narrowly intended to capture access to work, adequate hours, stability, and underemployment. Whether earnings from available jobs actually cover local living costs is captured primarily in the 40-point Wage and Budget Adequacy component. Taken together, labor conditions and income adequacy account for 50% of the ADI. Recurring Essentials receives 30 points because unavoidable prices directly affect household budgets, while Borrowing and Debt receives 20 points to capture financing and delinquency pressure without double-counting basic expenses. The four component scores add to the overall ADI.

Key insights

• July CPI slowed slightly to 3.4% over the year; shelter rose 0.1% in July and 3.2% over the year, while food at home declined 0.1% in the month. BLS CPI
• August payrolls rose by 162,000 and unemployment held at 4.1%; June and July payroll changes were revised up by 55,000 combined. The stronger reading is post-quarter evidence and does not revise completed Q2. BLS Employment Situation
• The complete Q2 debt report supports holding borrowing pressure broadly steady: total debt fell 0.1% and overall delinquency improved slightly, but new auto and credit-card delinquencies remained elevated. New York Fed Household Debt and Credit
• July household expectations were mixed: perceived missed-payment risk was 12.0%, while current and expected household financial situations improved. New York Fed SCE
• The latest SHED benchmark found financial well-being broadly unchanged, but 23% of renters had been behind on rent during the prior year. Federal Reserve SHED

Methodology and sources

The ADI is an S3T modeled estimate constructed from government, university, nonprofit, and financial datasets. Component results use data available as of September 5, 2026; individual source periods vary because publication schedules differ. Household categories are generated from the locked four-component score and validated against—not forced to equal—SHED hardship measures.

Principal sources: BLS CPI, BLS CPS, New York Fed Household Debt and Credit, Federal Reserve SHED, and MIT Living Wage Calculator.

Methodology v1.0.0; last revised 2026-08-03. Full calculation notes and source inventory accompany this review edition.