Economic Experience Dashboard - Q2 2026
The Economic Experience Dashboard is designed to provide insight into the actual economic experience of the US population. US headline economic statistics may imply misleadingly positive conditions skewed by extremely high numbers at the upper end of the wealth spectrum. By factoring multiple economic data sources we get a better sense of how individuals and families are experiencing the economy, through the lens of living expenses and balancing a budget.
S3T Affordability Distress Indicator
U.S. Severe Affordability Distress: 14%
Modeled using the latest blended inputs from
Fed SHED,
BLS labor data,
Freddie Mac mortgage rates,
Fed household debt service,
Fed G.19 credit-card APRs,
NY Fed household debt,
MIT Living Wage,
Harvard JCHS housing burden, and
KFF affordability and medical debt.
Secure
35.4%
Budget stress is manageable for most households in this category.
Anchored to Fed SHED well-being.
Mild
27.3%
Pressure is present, but disruption is still limited.
Calibrated with Fed SHED and BLS labor conditions.
Moderate
23.4%
Tradeoffs, debt use, or cost strain are common.
Severe
14.0%
Households are materially exposed to affordability shock.
Regional comparison: severe distress
Regions use Census definitions. Differences are scaled using
FRED regional family income and
Fed SHED resilience gaps.
Northeast
12%
Midwest
11%
South
17%
West
14%
Geography snapshot
Geography groups are informed by
USDA rural-urban continuum codes and
Fed SHED metro/non-metro savings plus
$400 emergency resilience.
Rural
Severe
20%
Moderate
24%
Small Metro
Severe
13%
Moderate
24%
Large Metro
Severe
13%
Moderate
23%
Linked sources
- Federal Reserve SHED overall financial well-being
- Fed SHED emergency savings by metro/non-metro
- Fed SHED $400 emergency expense by metro/non-metro
- BLS Employment Situation / labor conditions
- Freddie Mac PMMS mortgage rates
- Federal Reserve household debt service ratio
- Federal Reserve G.19 credit-card APR table
- New York Fed Household Debt and Credit
- MIT Living Wage Calculator and methodology
- Harvard JCHS State of the Nation’s Housing 2025
- KFF health care costs and affordability and KFF medical debt analysis
- FRED real family income by Census region
- Census region definitions
- USDA rural-urban continuum codes
This represents a deterioration compared to the December 2025 numbers, included below for comparison.
S3T Economic Experience Dashboard
Severe affordability distress: 10%
Share of U.S. adults in “Severe” ADI category (latest data vintage used).
As of: 2025-12
ADI combines essentials cost pressure, borrowing costs, employment quality, and wage adequacy vs realistic budgets.
Secure
48%
Budget covers necessities + savings.
Mild distress
24%
Tight months; limited buffer.
Moderate distress
18%
Frequent tradeoffs; debt reliance.
Severe distress
10%
Bills behind or persistent shortfall.
Severe distress by region
(Bar length scaled to the highest region)
Northeast
10%
Midwest
8%
South
10%
West
12%
Moderate & severe distress by geography
Rural
Moderate: 17%
Severe: 9%
Higher transport + thinner job markets.
Small metro
Moderate: 18%
Severe: 10%
Rents rising faster than wages.
Large metro
Moderate: 19%
Severe: 12%
Housing + childcare dominate budgets.
Where the strain is most intense
Recurring necessities (housing, childcare, healthcare, food, utilities) drive most household stress because they are paid frequently and leave little room to absorb borrowing costs (mortgages, credit cards, student loans, medical debt). “Employed” does not always mean “economically secure” when wages lag realistic local budgets.
Data sources (click to view)
- Federal Reserve – SHED (Economic Well-Being) — latest annual release used (verify most recent on page)
- BLS – CPI (CPI-U) — accessed 2026-01-05
- BLS – Consumer Expenditure Survey (CE) — accessed 2026-01-05
- NY Fed – Household Debt and Credit — most recent quarterly data (verify on page)
- Federal Reserve – G.19 Consumer Credit — accessed 2026-01-05
- MIT – Living Wage Calculator — methodology / calculator (verify latest update on site)
- Harvard JCHS – Housing cost burden research — most recent annual publications (verify on site)
- KFF – Medical debt / affordability analysis — most recent reports (verify on site)
- Urban Institute – Mobility Metrics (ratio_living_wage, debt in collections, etc.) — files modified 2025-12-12; dashboard updates logged 2025-12-16
- Urban Institute – Dashboard update log — updated 2025-12-16
How these numbers are produced (at a glance)
ADI buckets are estimated by reconciling (a) self-reported hardship signals (Fed SHED), (b) housing cost burden distributions (Harvard JCHS / Census), (c) debt stress and delinquencies (NY Fed / Fed G.19 / KFF), and (d) wage adequacy vs realistic budgets (MIT Living Wage methodology). Output shares are normalized to sum to 100% across Secure/Mild/Moderate/Severe.