Quantum Computing

The advent of business- or science-ready quantum computing could unleash a new wave of innovation, but also poses unprecedented risks to information security and - potentially - crypto assets.

1. Quantum computing will bring a new level of compute power that may disrupt encryption and security.

Error correction is an important problem to solve for quantum compute: fragile quantum states introduce errors ("quantum noise") which until now have tended to only increase when attempts were made to correct them. Google Willow's breakthrough solves this issue, and may make quantum computing viable for real world uses as early as 2030.
Quantum computers that operate without succumbing to quantum noise could use Shor's algorithm to break the widely used public-key cryptography methods currently considered secure against classical computing attacks.
A hostile actor armed with a quantum computer could in theory be able decrypt and read encrypted messages and break the encyption that protects all ecommerce and private communications.
Quantum Computing is considered a risk to the encryption that enables Bitcoin and other crypto protocols.
Quantum will bring a new level of compute power to AI - which could be used to strengthen security attacks or defenses.

2. Post quantum security (PQS) capabilities are under development, but will they be ready in time?

The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has begun exploring what kind of security approaches could "secure against both quantum and classical computers, and can interoperate with existing communications protocols and networks."
NIST has announced 4 candidate algorithms that promise to enable security against quantum powered hacking.
It is not clear whether these upgraded security capabilities will be ready and implemented before quantum computing becomes generally available.
A state or corporate actor (with funds and motivation) could launch a quantum based security threat well before quantum computing is generally available.
This poses risk to e-commerce, data privacy and digital currencies all of which rely on encryption that current levels of compute power cannot crack.

3. Breakthroughs are accelerating the arrival of quantum to as early as 2030-2035

HSBC and IBM are piloting a bond trading use case for quantum computing, that delivered 34% improvement. Hints at pre-2030 viability.
Google Willow, a new Quantum Chip leverages an error correction breakthrough and completed a benchmark test in five minutes that would have taken 10 septillion years on Frontier, the world's fastest supercomputer. Error correction is an important problem to solve for quantum compute: fragile quantum states introduce errors ("quantum noise") which until now have tended to only increase when attempts were made to correct them. Google Willow's breakthrough solves this issue, and may make quantum computing viable for real world uses as early as 2030.
A new cryogenic chip design uses could minimize power use, while maximizing scalability.
This UC Irvine research recently discovered a previously unknown state of quantum matter that could enable high powered radiation resistant rechargeable compute on deep space missions.
Another breakthrough harnesses "heavy" electrons to achieve higher performance at normal room temperatures.

4. Investors, firms and cities are making large bets on Quantum

IQM Quantum Computers secured $320 million in a Series B round, boosting its total funding to $600 million.
Quantinuum reaches $10B valuation.
Nvidia is building a Quantum research center in Boston.
Chicago wants to be the Silicon Valley of Quantum Computing

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