Quantum Computing
The advent of business- or science-ready quantum computing could unleash a new wave of innovation, but also poses unprecedented risks to information security and - potentially - crypto assets.
1. Quantum computing will bring a new level of compute power that may disrupt encryption and security.
- Google Willow, a new Quantum Chip leverages an error correction breakthrough and completed a benchmark test in five minutes that would have taken 10 septillion years on Frontier, the world's fastest supercomputer.
- Error correction is an important problem to solve for quantum compute: fragile quantum states introduce errors ("quantum noise") which until now have tended to only increase when attempts were made to correct them. Google Willow's breakthrough solves this issue, and may make quantum computing viable for real world uses as early as 2030.
- Quantum computers that operate without succumbing to quantum noise could use Shor's algorithm to break public-key cryptography methods currently considered secure against classical computing attacks.
- Another indicator: the current Quantum computing arms race implies commercially feasible quantum compute could be available by 2035.
- Quantum will bring a new level of compute power to AI. Nvidia is building a Quantum research center in Boston.
2. Post quantum security capabilities are under development, but will they be ready in time?
- The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has begun exploring what kind of security approaches could "secure against both quantum and classical computers, and can interoperate with existing communications protocols and networks."
- NIST has announced 4 candidate algorithms that promise to enable security against quantum powered hacking.
- It is not clear whether these upgraded security capabilities will be ready and implemented before quantum computing becomes generally available.
- A state or corporate actor (with funds and motivation) could launch a quantum based security threat well before quantum computing is generally available.
- This poses risk to e-commerce, data privacy and digital currencies all of which rely on encryption that current levels of compute power cannot crack.
3. Breakthroughs are accelerating the arrival of quantum to as early as 2030-2035
- Google Willow, a new Quantum Chip leverages an error correction breakthrough and completed a benchmark test in five minutes that would have taken 10 septillion years on Frontier, the world's fastest supercomputer. Error correction is an important problem to solve for quantum compute: fragile quantum states introduce errors ("quantum noise") which until now have tended to only increase when attempts were made to correct them. Google Willow's breakthrough solves this issue, and may make quantum computing viable for real world uses as early as 2030.
- A new cryogenic chip design uses could minimize power use, while maximizing scalability.
- This UC Irvine research recently discovered a previously unknown state of quantum matter that could enable high powered radiation resistant rechargeable compute on deep space missions.
- Another breakthrough harnesses "heavy" electrons to achieve higher performance at normal room temperatures.
4. Investors, firms and cities are making large bets on Quantum
- IQM Quantum Computers secured $320 million in a Series B round, boosting its total funding to $600 million.
- Quantinuum reaches $10B valuation.
- Nvidia is building a Quantum research center in Boston.
- Chicago wants to be the Silicon Valley of Quantum Computing
Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.