☁️5.23.2025 - Navigating dual uncertainties
The entire world is in a fog. It's not just you.
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☁️This issue in 30 secs
🌀 Navigating dual uncertainty: Many professionals today are facing disruption both at work (e.g., layoffs, reorgs, AI shifts 🤖) and in their personal lives 🏠. These overlapping uncertainties create disorientation 😵💫 but don’t have to stall progress ✅.
🧭 Remember: Uncertainty is normal—and temporary.
Transitions like AI adoption 🤖, geopolitical shifts 🌍, and economic fragmentation 💥 are universal. Don’t assume the worst; instead, stay mentally flexible 🧘 and intentional in how you process ambiguity 🧩.
🛠️ Key practices for navigating foggy periods:
- 🗣️ Keep communication lines open and ask questions.
- 🚫 Avoid labeling colleagues—alliances can shift.
- 🤝 Focus on solving problems and creating wins not protecting turf.
- 📄 Calmly prepare for worst-case scenarios (résumé, contacts, success stories).
- ✂️ Once a contingency plan is made, close the worry loop and move on.
📈 Bottom line:
Even amid major change, progress is possible 🛤️. Stay steady, stay strategic 🎯, and keep preparing for both current performance and future opportunities 🚀.
🌐 Macro insight – global economic shift:
The biggest IPO of 2025 (battery maker CATV 🔋) listed in Hong Kong 🇭🇰, not the U.S. 🇺🇸—signaling declining confidence after tariff shocks 📉 and a Moody’s downgrade. Blackstone remains bullish 🐂 on U.S. assets.
🏙️ Elite Microstates & emerging Network States:
Cities like Hong Kong, Dubai, and Singapore thrive by serving elite populations and outsourcing nation-state burdens. This may foreshadow the rise of network states 🌐—e.g., crypto-based political memberships 🪙👥.
💼 Side hustles on the rise:
44% of Americans now have a side hustle (up from 36% in 2024), with 26 million more expected by 2027 📊—a key signal of changing economic behavior and growing financial independence 💪.
[perspective]
Navigating Uncertainty: Leading Yourself Through Workplace Disruption
Progress is still possible, even in the fog.
I frequently get to talk to people who are simultaneously worrying about something going on at work and in some other part of their life.
So many professionals today are balancing personal goals—career growth, health, family responsibilities—AND at the same time navigating major uncertainty in their workplace. A reorg, a merger, or a sudden market shift can throw everything into question. It’s disorienting. You’re left wondering:How do I keep moving forward when the ground is shifting beneath me?
2020-2030: the Messy Decade
Right now there are a lot of transitions underway:
- AI is changing the way we work, and even the way we team up.
- Other new technologies are disrupting growth plans of companies - prompting layoffs
- The world order is fragmenting, and with it the economy.
These transitions have ripple effects: additional M&A activity, changes in investment patterns. The entire world is in a fog. It's not just you. It's the whole world. So let's realize that. Everyone is going through something these days. And ...this too shall pass. Until it does, here are a few notes on what to Remember and what to DO.
What to Remember
You can't know everything. You'll have to decide what to focus on, when to chase something down and figure out vs when to let it play out on its own.
Uncertainty is normal—and temporary.
Our minds crave clarity, but transitions often involve a foggy phase where answers are scarce. Don’t expect immediate resolution. Instead, expect change and stay mentally flexible.
When we don't have clear answers or info we tend to assume the worst. It’s easy to think: I have these super important goals and now they're not going to happen. OR “This mess at work is going to ruin everything I care about.” But that mindset leads to resentment, disengagement, and poor decisions. Interrupt negative thought loops with intentional practices.
What to Do
1. Keep communication lines open.
Check in with people frequently. Ask questions instead of making assumptions:
- "How are you feeling about _____ "
- “What are you seeing from your vantage point?”
- “Is there context I should keep in mind?”
Wherever you can invite and encourage dialogue—especially across levels or teams. Don’t rant. Stay curious.
2. Resist labeling people.
Our brains— like many performance review processes — tend to put people into categories: high performer, low performer, useful, not useful. Be cautious with these mental lists. Unexpected allies can emerge in a crisis, and labeling undermines both collaboration and team potential.
3. Stay solution-oriented, not territorial.
Trying to protect your or job or your team is natural. But overprotectiveness can block broader wins. Instead, ask: Who can help us succeed right now—even if I haven’t worked with them before or don’t always see eye to eye?
4. Sit down and deliberately make a plan for the worst-case scenario—calmly.
Layoffs? Role elimination? Don’t obsess—but don’t ignore. Stress and anxiety levels tend to rise when we're ignoring something we need to address. So address the unpleasant tasks or decisions you are facing:
- Refresh your résumé.
- Reach out to contacts.
- Write down your success stories.
- Make a plan.
👉 And treat those tasks as just tasks. No drama. If a robot had to do them, it would just... do them. Try this: tell yourself "Its just a task".
5. Close out your worry cycle, and don’t let worst-case scenario-making steal your focus.
Our minds can quickly potential scenarios where all the worst things happen. When you have made your plan, then close the loop on that planning cycle. "Ok I thought about the worse case scenario and I know what I would do. I know it won't be easy, but I'll get through it, and I've got a plan." And then cut it off. I"m not processing that any more. I spent some time thinking about it, and I've got a plan. Ok moving on.
When fearful thoughts creep in, you can, “Yeah, I’m not processing that right now. I'm working my Plan” That helps you stay engaged with the present—and confident in your readiness.
Bottom Line:
Uncertainty doesn’t have to derail your goals. Stay connected, stay thoughtful, and take steady action—both in your current role and in preparing for what might come next. Progress is still possible, even in the fog.
[macro]
Looking abroad...
Biggest IPO so far in 2025: Battery maker CATV, listing in Hong Kong, not NY. Many connect this to a general flight away from US assets, in the wake of the tariff induced uncertainty, and Moody' downgrade of US credit rating:
- Global investors worry they are overweighted in US assets - and that the US economy won’t do well in the foreseeable future.
- Blackstone disagrees, saying US assets are "still core to portfolios."
Microstates-->Network States
The IPO also spotlights the "elite micro state" thesis: Hong Kong like Dubai, Singapore, Luxemborg, and a handful of others seem to be following a recipe for outsize prosperity:
- Support only a tiny - mostly elite - population.
- Let a bigger sponsor bear the brunt of the usual nation-state grunt work - domestic policy, national security etc.
- Provide tax havens or other attractions.
Recommend reading the Microstates history and context from Columbia Journal of International Affairs. And considering that Microstates may presage Network States as discussed July 2024. One early glimpse? The recent dinner for the top holders of the Trump meme coin is an example of how buying a crypto asset can grant membership to a powerful political circle that sits in parallel to a nation state. More than half of the attendees were from outside the US.
Side Hustles
44% of Americans have a side hustle per the Lending Trees latest Side Hustle Survey, up from 36% in 2024. The increase in people starting side hustles is expected to continue: 26 million more will likely add side hustles by 2027.
AI Driven Work Trends
💯 Highly Recommended: Microsoft's 2025 Work Trend Index - based on aggregate data on how 31,000 individuals are using MS Copilot to close the capacity gap (between business demands vs max staff capacity).
Full Access Members: See the S3T Economic Dashboard for the Top 500+ US & International real-time economic indicators.
Click here for an overview of the full Change Leadership Learning Series.
[playbooks]
- Spend Wisely in a Hype-Driven World
- Gaining Buy-in for Data Modernization
- Flipping the Script: Understanding and Changing Internal & Macro Narratives
- Shift to effective gatekeeping in the age of generative AI
- How to Stop Zombie Projects from Sapping your Focus and Resources
- Harmonize Different Kinds of Expertise to Achieve Success
- Addressing issues related to uneven accountability
- Validating AI use cases
- 6 Proven Ways to Resolve Conflicts
See Full List of S3T Playbooks
[panoramas]
Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.