S3T New Years Edition - Jan 1: 2023 Predictions, Crash Watch, Crypto Regroup, Geopolitics, The BTC Many, Margaux, Winter Bees
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🔮 2023 Outlook
Prediction Season is here again!
Happy New Year! Here is your quick roundup of the top macro and innovation predictions for 2023:
- Recession (JP Morgan)
- $5K BTC and 2.4% World Economic Growth (Bloomberg)
- Global impacts from Chinese economic weakness (El Pais)
- Crypto will be less volatile than fiat and the Fed will cut rates (Baby Pips - FOREX focused)
- Tech Innovation in FinTech and notably RegTech ie helping companies bridge new tech, ESG and compliance (Forbes)
In addition, the crypto predictions are out. Top themes:
- 4 Predictions about Privacy Preserving Solutions for 2023 - keep an eye on Zero Knowledge Cryptography.
- 3 Crypto Investment Predictions from 3iQ Research - expecting a rebound in crypto prices by Q3.
- Coindesk's 10 Predictions for the Future of Crypto in 2023.
- Longer, but Highly Recommended: Messari's Crypto Thesis 2023, Ryan Selkis's annual deep dive into the longer trends and what's really going on below the headlines in financial innovation.
🌎 Geopolitics and the Outlook for the US
As Europe reels from its difficulties driven in part by what the London-based Economist calls "American economic populism", John Ikenberry continues to maintain that American power is enduring (he's been saying this for a decade).
This Bloomberg piece on reasons for optimism in 2023 outlines a number of factors - including the US chip industry rebuild and the decentralization of manufacturing - that are all quite favorable to the US.
But national unity will continue to be a challenge.
You've probably heard of the historic Christmas Truce. John Blake sees another side of this story, arguing it was a loss of the will to fight, and offers a cautionary tale about national unity as a prerequisite for winning conflicts.
And it appears, unfortunately, that there will be increasing risk of conflicts:
- The Atlantic Council has identified the top 23 Risks and Opportunities for 2023...many of which involve unrest, conflict or risk of war.
- The Council on Foreign Relations shares top global trends to watch in 2023 - global food insecurity being one, political division being another.
In the sections below I share a few of the larger themes to watch for and be part of in 2023.
In spite of all the global concerns, there are - as Peter Diamandis notes - things to celebrate from 2022 that are going to have positive impacts in 2023 and beyond:
🔥 Equator Economics
As noted in previous editions of S3T, equatorial populations are at risk due to climate change-driven heat and this is likely to drive unprecedented human migration and displacement. It will definitely impact the global workforce and economy.
📉 Market Crash Watch?
A consensus has formed among investors that a crash is coming sometime in 2023, perhaps early in the year, often voiced in the phrase "we haven't found the bottom yet."
It's no secret that