# S3T
> Learn the set of skills you need to thrive in the 21st century
Public Ghost content for AI and LLM tooling. This file includes a bounded export of public pages first, then recent public posts.
Append `.md` to any post or page URL to get the content in Markdown (for example, `/example-post.md`).
## Pages
### About this site
URL: https://www.s3t.org/about/
Last updated: 2024-12-01T14:23:48.000Z
Unlike posts, pages in Ghost don't appear the main feed. They're separate, individual pages which only show up when you link to them. Great for content which is important, but separate from your usual posts.
An about page is a great example of one you might want to set up early on so people can find out more about you, and what you do. Why should people subscribe to your site and become a member? Details help!
> **Tip:** If you're reading any post or page on your site and you notice something you want to edit, you can add `/edit` to the end of the URL – and you'll be taken directly to the Ghost editor.
Now tell the world what your site is all about.
### Contact
URL: https://www.s3t.org/contact/
Last updated: 2024-12-01T14:23:10.000Z
If you are a S3T subscriber and would like to start a conversation, please reach out via the [S3T Discord](https://discord.gg/DmFwTtss?ref=s3t.org) or [Twitter](https://twitter.com/RalphPerrine?ref=s3t.org).
**Some great reasons to reach out:**
- You are working on a project that you'd like to see featured or discussed in a future.
- You have a suggestion or idea for a future article
- You have feedback or additional insights on something you read
- You'd like to be a contributor, or be interviewed
### Privacy
URL: https://www.s3t.org/privacy/
Last updated: 2024-12-01T14:22:53.000Z
S3T uses the email you provide in order to deliver your subscription. Your email address is not shared with any other party or used for marketing purposes by S3T.
Wondering how Ghost fares when it comes to privacy and GDPR rules? Good news: Ghost does not use any tracking cookies of any kind.
Read more about [Ghost GDPR Compliance here](https://ghost.org/help/ghost-gdpr-compliance/?ref=s3t.org).
### Contribute
URL: https://www.s3t.org/contribute/
Last updated: 2024-12-01T14:22:02.000Z
If you'd like to contribute to S3T or have an idea for a feature, please reach out via the [S3T Discord](https://discord.gg/DmFwTtss?ref=s3t.org) or [Twitter](https://twitter.com/RalphPerrine?ref=s3t.org). We'd love to hear from you!
If you'd like to contribute to Ghost here is some additional info: Ghost is a non-profit organization, that gives away its intellectual property as open source software. If you believe in what they do, there are a number of ways you can give them a hand, and they hugely appreciate all of them:
- Contribute code via [GitHub](https://github.com/tryghost?ref=s3t.org)
- Contribute financially via [GitHub Sponsors](https://github.com/sponsors/TryGhost?ref=s3t.org)
- Contribute financially via [Open Collective](https://opencollective.com/ghost?ref=s3t.org)
- Contribute reviews via **writing a blog post**
- Contribute good vibes via **telling your friends** about Ghost
Thanks for checking us out!
### Get S3T
URL: https://www.s3t.org/get-s3t/
Last updated: 2025-12-01T00:49:56.000Z
S3T (yes, its pronounced "set") offers a unique critical take on emerging tech and economics, tailored to change leaders who have a bias for positive action. S3T is written to mobilize, connect, energize, educate, encourage the change leaders of this world.
**Click the Subscribe button to sign up now. You'll be on your way.**
Change is hard because change is multi-dimensional - you can't succeed by coming at the problem narrowly.
Change leaders need help:
- Excavating the perspectives and the inevitabilities that should shape our work and thinking.
- Focusing and investing our energy in the most pivotal elements for driving needed change.
- Strategizing how to manage the fact that change usually comes in sets of issues and sets of solutions.
**Goal:** Be a valued connector and outcomes conduit for the most effective change leaders in the world.
### Why the "Set" approach Matters
Art, nature, finance and community are important frames of reference when thinking about how to shape the future - **we cannot expect to create livable futures armed with technology alone**.
Yes, software is eating the world as Marc Andresson observed. *But let's not think of this as "the plan."*
Bear illustration from [The History of Four-footed Beasts and Serpents (1658)](https://publicdomainreview.org/collection/the-history-of-four-footed-beasts-and-serpents-1658?ref=s3t.org)
**Blindly software-izing the world is like letting a bear eat all the beans it wants. Yes, there will be massive productivity. No, it will not be easy to clean up.**
Technology can drive amazing innovations - but without a set of values and reference points to guide us - the innovations can unleash more harm than good.
### How S3T aspires to be different
Most publishing and social media platforms miss a key point: in our zeal to identify and engage a “Target Audience” it is easy to forget that people are multi-dimensional. The Target Audience concept is perfect if all we want to do is reinforce people’s biases - and dumb the worlds problems down into good vs. evil comic book dramas.
If on the other hand we want to learn, cross-germinate, test ideas, mobilize *and take an engineering approach* to learning about, understanding and then successfully resolving crucial problems, **we need to stop addressing people as “targets” being hit with narrow self-reinforcing messages.** We need to address people instead as partners who can each bring something to help solve some crucial part of the puzzle.
While some may not initially understand the reason for a mix of seemingly disparate subjects - nature, art, finance, technology, equality - our shared goal is to learn over time how these elements comprise **the crucial set of reference points** as we design and execute toward a wealthy *world not just a wealthy few.*
### The S3T Point of View
- A healthy wealthy world is worthwhile outcome to work toward.
- A problem solving mindset that learns and works toward a healthy wealthy world will achieve more good than a pessimistic mindset that retreats into despair.
- A healthy planet requires healthy *ecosystems* \- including natural, social and financial.
- Healthy ecosystems require healthy communities.
- Healthy communities require healthy individuals.
- These are all sets of things that work together and impact each other. We must combine our individual skills and perspectives into sets of initiatives that effectively address challenges we face.
Nurturing the health and wealth of indviduals, communities, ecosystems and the planet is a high calling that offers an opportunity for every person's diverse gifts and talents.
### Why the name S3T?
When I was thinking of what to call this, I set some criteria:
- short
- simple
- ages well - not a buzzword
I liked the idea of finding a word that was almost non-descript, something you could over time load your own meaning into. The word "set" rose to the top of my list. It was so overused it was almost invisible.
Think of all the ways we use the term “set”:
- *All set* as in prepared or ready
- *Set* in the surfing sense - a set of waves and especially the phrase “*back set*” meaning a set of waves coming behind the current set that are the real ones you want to get in position for.
- *Set* as a foundational math concept, ie set theory
- *Set* as in a movie set - the place where a story is crafted
- *Set* as in complete collections - a set of vintage comic books or dishes
- *Set* in the volleyball sense - as in setting up a spike opportunity for your team mate.
- Set as a reference to success or security - “*set for life*”
Beyond this, it seemed to have a natural relevance to one of the core viewpoints of this publication - *change comes in sets.*
### Why is it spelled S3T?
The 3 is a stand in for the symbol **∈** which in [math set theory](https://www.rapidtables.com/math/symbols/Set%5FSymbols.html?ref=s3t.org) indicates membership in a set. It is also known as the "Element of" symbol.
For example:
2 ∈ {2,3,4} means 2 is an element of the set {2,3,4}
Yes, in this case, its backwards. If it had been practical to register a domain name S∈T, I would have considered it, but as this [domain faq](https://unicode.org/faq/idn.html?ref=s3t.org) details, certain unicode symbols in domain names is technically possible but reliable only in specific jurisdictions. Alas, we always must adapt. :)
*Thank you for being a part of* S∈T!
### Meet the Author
URL: https://www.s3t.org/meet-the-author/
Last updated: 2024-12-01T14:20:08.000Z
*Hi - thank you for checking out S3T!*
S3T is part of my own learning journey. I've found that regular publishing deadlines gives me a helpful structure for learning then crystallizing and sharing what I'm learning. This starts to create a loop when others join in the conversation and share what they are learning.
This newsletter also ties together several of my interests - technology, society, nature - into a single common denominator they share: *economics*. Its a topic I keep coming back to no matter what I get involved in.
I've always been fascinated by systems - natural or human-engineered. I think I got it from my Dad. He would draw very precise neat drawings of things he was building. Simple things - like book shelves, or workbenches. Sometimes he would draw something that showed a flow or process. He had this great way of drawing "exploded views" that I found fascinating.
This fueled my own curiosity as a child, and I began drawing my own inventions. I learned to use drawing as a way to work out ideas and express my thoughts. This artistic approach to sharing my thinking stayed with me my whole life. That is why editions of S3T usually feature one of my art works.
*Smoke and Mirrors* Mixed Media Ralph Perrine 2022
My family also gave me a respect and love of nature. Well worn bird guides were handed down to me from both my Mom and Dad's side of the family. I came to see that Nature is the greatest possible classroom for developing your ability to understand, design and evolve systems.
I hope the Nature Notes segment of S3T inspires readers to value and enjoy nature, and find ways to protect and nurture its capabilities. I'll occasionally share photos of locations, plants or animals I've encountered outdoors.
Trout Lily, Durham Co. NC
As an adult I noticed that in my own work - designing and implementing complex systems - I occupied this vantage point where I could see and draw all the working parts, how they fit together, and how they could function in an optimal way. And I couldn't help noticing the economic impacts of these systems and platforms.
I've been fortunate to have a career that caught part of wave after wave of innovation from 1990-present:
- Interactive CDROM/DVD and 3d simulation
- Web 1.0
- Object oriented programming Java (remember the first JavaOne conferences?)
- Web 2.0
- Mobile
- Cloud
- AI
- Blockchain
Not by any stretch the entire spectrum of innovation but an interesting selection. Every one of these introduced economic shifts.
I was introduced by Don Child to the book publishing world and had the privilege of writing for McMillan's Unleashed series of technology books. Later I published several books of my own including *12 Drawings That Will Change Your Life*, *America 2076*, and *The Ringtone Game*. In writing *America 2076* I became interested in how money and influence impacted decision-making in the US political system. In *Ringtone Game* I delved into this further, using a fictional account to better understand and illustrate scenarios playing out inside the beltway. This writing experience along with a notable kayaking trip made me realize the huge role that *values* play in economic decisions both large and small. This led to another round of thinking and writing which resulted in the *Wealthy World Manifesto*.
*America 2076* Available in Paperback on Amazon.com
Somewhere in the 90's I got the book collecting bug. This also probably came from my Dad, who had his own library of treasured books he'd collected over the years. Again, I found myself gravitating toward books - new and old - related to economics and risk. I began to see that specific roles in society exert tremendous influence over the economic options that others have - and that the mental models of the individuals in these specific roles have outsized influence on whether others have a good set of options or are forced to choose between very bad options.
This connected with my concern that we seemed to be rapidly deleting Nature's ability to sustain our survival on this planet. Flawed financial models give the false impression that there's no other option. That economic growth requires us to destroy our future.
As my career unfolded I was fortunate to have opportunities to be involved in entrepreneurial ventures and growth oriented companies. This often required working closely with a finance team to weigh the options or measure the value and results. These conversations frequently tested our knowledge and foresight regarding about economic factors and risks in play.
I got involved in crypto, taking a learning approach. Nothing helps you pay attention and learn quite like having your own money involved. I'm fascinated here by the organizational and financial innovations that seem to be setting the stage for the next chapter of economics - one with more equal access and opportunity for all.
In my work with the Innovation Garage at Blue Cross NC I truly appreciated what I saw as a once in a lifetime opportunity to be part of a significant transformation of healthcare. Again, the economics of this was fascinating to me.
Across all of these experiences I've learned that change is hard, messy disorienting and often chaotic. Being a change leader can be lonely. But working to drive the right kinds of change is worth it. It matters to those who lack access to financial services or healthcare. It matters to future generations who will have to live in the world we shape by our actions today.
On this path, it really helps to connect with others who are learning and working toward the same goals.
So now you know the backstory of S3T. :)
I look forward to comparing notes and driving change together!
Ralph Perrine
### Welcome to the Free Tier of S3T!
URL: https://www.s3t.org/welcome-free/
Last updated: 2024-12-01T14:19:27.000Z
Thank you for joining S3T! You now have free access to the weekly newsletter delivered to your inbox Friday morning!
You are joining an exclusive group of committed change leaders who are learning and working together to make good things happen for the world.
**How to get the most from S3T:**
1. Use whatever device is most comfortable for you: S3T is designed to be read from anywhere your phone, tablet or computer - on large or small screens.
2. Set up time for yourself to read and reflect. Each Friday S3T Edition shares a keynote topic, followed by a quick preview of the larger trends and issues covered in the paid Sunday Edition.
3. Join the [S3T.ORG Group on LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/groups/14135270/?ref=s3t.org).
4. Bring others into the conversation: Feel free to forward this to friend Encourage them to subscribe and get S3T delivered free each Friday morning.
5. Consider signing up for the paid subscription of S3T, which gives you additional value, and time saving resources. You can update your subscription anytime by clicking the Subscribe button.
Thank you for signing up and being part of S3T!
### Why you need S3T Full Access
URL: https://www.s3t.org/why/
Last updated: 2024-02-19T17:49:31.000Z
###
---
## You need tools and resources that give you an edge:
Paying Members receive the full edition of the S3T Weekly Newsletter + Full Access to the S3T tools, insights, and accelerators.
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## S3T Full Access is an investment in you
S3T Full Access subscribers get a weekly edition delivered to their inbox each week plus unlocked *full access* to immediately usable leadership tools and premium content and resources on the S3T.org website.
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All wrapped in a quick, enjoyable, focused reading experience to help you reflect and get set to be your best!
### Quickly Find Talking Points You Need with S3T's fast search engine
Click the search icon 🔍 at the top of any s3t screen for fast powerful search of the entire S3T library of S3T insights, trends, nature notes, food ideas and more:
Whether you are learning how to enable change in yourself, your career or your industry, or the world, the tools and insights here will put you on the path to achieving your goals and helping you get the most out of life.
### Access the entire history of S3T editions
S3T editions frequently cross-link to each other - for example noting where a previous S3T edition prediction has proven to be accurate. Or where additional context can shed light on an important point to understand. Here is a partial gallery of some of the weekly S3T editions:
Partial gallery of recent editions of S3T
### Invest in your own success while learning how to position your organization for impact and growth.
*S3T (pronounced "set") empowers you to:*
- Save time and cut thru the noise with our concise expert analysis
- Get advance notice on key issues, shifts and opportunities that matter most to your success as a leader.
- Reduce trial and error through proven guides and explainers
- Be in the most crucial conversations and learn with top leaders
- Be the trusted advisor your teams, customers and stakeholders depend on you to be.
- Establish your reputation as a thought leader and proactive problem solver.
### If you are technology leader
- who works in a challenging role
- innovating in a highly regulated industry
- for a customers with complex needs
### where
- innovation is badly needed
- emerging tech could enable better economics and experiences for individuals and communities
- BUT resistance to change is strong
If you understand the value that innovation and emerging tech can bring, *but you know too well what a struggle it is to make it happen*.
If you want to be a change leader, and you have THIS mix of feelings:
- You feel the temptation to give up because it feels safer to focus on "more practical" things,
- At the same time you feel an urgency to enable something better for your customers, your patients, your community. You worry that this better outcome won't happen if you give up,
- So you feel *torn*, because you have limited discretionary time, you already struggle with work-life balance, not to mention your desire to balance your need to drive change with your need to fulfill the daily obligations of your job.
Underneath all of this, your deepest desire is to be a resilient, effective change leader making a positive impact, making a difference for people and communities. And leading your team to do the same.
**If this sounds like you, then S3T Full Access is tailor-made to help you on your journey to create the achievement & success experience you want.**
## [Sign up for S3T Full Access](https://www.s3t.org/#/portal/signup)
Photo by [Rowan Freeman](https://unsplash.com/@rowanfreeman?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### S3T Topics
URL: https://www.s3t.org/topics/
Last updated: 2024-03-22T02:23:26.000Z
_This page is for paying subscribers only._
### Moral Hazard and Healthcare
URL: https://www.s3t.org/moral-hazard/
Last updated: 2025-01-29T02:56:10.000Z
*The 18th-century moral hazard logic of traditional insurance no longer serves the best interests of the healthcare industry and the communities and individuals who depend on health insurance for access to care.*
### Beyond Moral Hazard
Healthcare is very tangled up in the *moral hazard* logic which assumes that patients "[consume less healthcare when they are required to pay more for it out of pocket](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6128379/?ref=s3t.org)."
There are several serious flaws in this line of thinking:
- For the patient, the deterrent to moral hazard is already sufficient: the fear associated with uncertainty, treatment costs, medical debt, pain, not to mention the risk of harm due to medical errors. These elements loom large in the minds and motivations of patients. People generally try to avoid utilizing healthcare. Going to the doctor is not as appealing as eating pizza or drinking beer.
- There is more than one form of over-consumption. People who "over-consume" health services are not being "greedy", they are usually *being under-served*. They return to the doctor over and over, or seek out additional doctors because they are not getting the solutions they need and the system is failing them. **Its not indulgence, its *distress*.**
- Finally, the problem of clarity: when people order burgers at a drive thru, they are willfully, consciously making a decision to consume something: they are presented with a clearly priced menu, the opportunity to select from the options, the opportunity to confirm their order and the price, then promptly receive what they ordered. In contrast, Healthcare rarely - safe to say *never* \- offers this kind of experience. Bills accumulate via non-transparent processes and fee schedules, then are delivered via inscrutable paperwork. Patients must wait to see if a treatment is effective or not. If it's not effective, then they are forced to start another cycle of "consumption."
In this context, going on about moral hazard and "over-consumption" is failing to connect to the realities people are living through. Moral hazard - as frequently invoked in healthcare discussions - fails to accurately describe the economic behaviors of patients and doctors in healthcare.
### The Failure of the Moral Hazard Construct in US Healthcare
The moral hazard argument as structured today tacitly accepts the twisted insensitive logic that healthcare cost and complexity are actually *good(!)* because they help control moral hazard and supposedly limit what the industry has come to call "over-consumption". The US healthcare industry needs to either abandon moral hazard thinking, or admit that the mission statements about healthcare equity and "healthcare for all" are just purpose-washing. Right now, the industry attempts to serve two conflicting mental models - working in literal opposition to itself. The enormous waste and churn in US healthcare is the result.
The logic of moral hazard has been a dominant influence on pricing and capital management strategies of health insurance for decades now. Yet during that same time, **moral hazard and its implementations have completely failed to control costs - which are higher than ever.**
**Healthcare Finance leaders on both the payer and provider sides should acknowledge that this construct no longer serves us.**
It is time for *more diligent financial innovation* toward simple affordable healthcare.
### Moral Hazard: Different Takes
In 2005, Malcom Gladwell published [this essay](https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2005/08/29/the-moral-hazard-myth?ref=s3t.org) which provides a good history of how moral hazard found a home in the health policy logic in the US, but interestingly *not in other western nations*.
The moral hazard section starts about 1/3 way thru - highly recommended read for healthcare leaders.
Not everyone agrees with Gladwell's argument.
[This counter argument](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6128379/?ref=s3t.org) by Liran Einav and Amy Finkelstein offers a different take, and a window into the curiously selective way moral hazard is applied to the players in US healthcare system.
Einav and Finkelstein acknowledge dissenting opinions, but try to establish that moral hazard does exist in health insurance:
*"Just like almost any other good, individuals increase their healthcare utilization when the price they have to pay for it is lower."*
But healthcare is not just "like any other good." The purchase and selection process is very different. Patients aren't selecting and making purchase decisions the same way they are when they are shopping for rice or apples.
In "normal" retail there are a range of options with clear differences and clear pricing. All of the options are functional and typically backed by a return policy. One brand of rice might be more expensive than another, but I can make dinner with either one. I might like one better than the other. If the rice has bugs in it, I can return it for a refund. Whatever the scenario, I can manage to get some rice and not go hungry.
This, as you know, is not how healthcare works.
- Significant portions of healthcare purchases are not discretionary. They are forced by life threatening events, and fear of harm to self or a loved one. This is not the difference between "nice rice" and "cheap rice". This is the difference between getting what you need or not making it.
- Patients rarely have a full understanding of the price at the time they are making their purchase decisions. Neither does anyone else for that matter.
- A very small percentage of patients drive a very large percentage of the spending.
- Patients are not really agents capable of controlling their spending. They have no view into how pricing is calculated, or how it aggregates. In other words, **they are not really in a position to be incentivized by price manipulation. Pricing can stress them out, deprive them of needed treatment or cause harm, but it can not to any reasonable mind provide a safe or effective means of guiding behavior.** This should be over the doorway of every conference room where health insurance products are designed.
Curiously, Einav and Finkelstein acknowledge these realities throughout their paper linked above, but never crystallize them into actionable conclusions. The concluding paragraphs dissolve into hazy statements clinging to one premise: *demand responds to pricing, so if we just make patients pay more, then demand will subside.*
**Their argument rests on a traditional economic assumption that predates the rise of corporate pricing power** (the ability of companies to raise prices without fear of losing market share) and the way pricing power is enabled by debt - in healthcare's case: *medical debt*. In the face of national crisis of healthcare affordability it's an incredibly obtuse position to take.
How many times have you heard, "We didn't go to the doctor because we had no idea what it would cost"? Vague unclear pricing causes people to avoid care. **Delayed utilization forces more expensive forms of utilization *later*.**
Plot twist: I am inclined to agree with the writers that moral hazard may exist in healthcare. But perhaps **the vector for moral hazard is *not the patient*.**
### Where does Moral Hazard *really* occur?
*Caveat: The language here may seem unfair and accusatory to the passionate and deeply caring individuals working across the different industry verticals in healthcare. To be clear, we're attempting to describe the economics in play, NOT the intentions and character of the individuals working inside the systems guided by those economics.*
Photo by [Andre Taissin](https://unsplash.com/@andretaissin?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
**Who are the "bad actors?"**
As described in the paragraphs above, moral hazard in healthcare is framed as if *patients* were the "bad actors", and that charging them more, or complicating their care pathways is just a necessary evil for counteracting the behaviors of these "bad actors."
It seems like such an obtuse position, in the face of the national crisis of healthcare affordability.
But for the financial establishment of healthcare it could also be very convenient line of financial logic: it justifies raising prices and taking a greater and greater share of GDP, while blaming things on "consumers."
But what do we mean by the *financial establishment* of healthcare?
This is where it is important to be very clear about who or what we might actually accuse:
**Do not** think in terms of individuals, companies or even healthcare industry segments.
Think in terms of economic *roles*.
There is a specific role that exists across the different verticals of healthcare:
- That role in some way is **responsible to preserve and grow capital**.
- This role is not evil. It has a legitimate purpose.
- This role holds profound influence over healthcare processes and outcomes.
- *This role* is subject to moral hazard.
Look at any government healthcare program, any hospital system, insurer, just about any team or organization in healthcare, and you will find a person or team that is required to play this role.
**The Role that is subject to Moral Hazard**
Let's call this role the "Capital Protector", and let's define it:
*A Capital Protector is an entity that has a responsibility to preserve and grow capital. The Capital Protector entity may directly own the capital, or may be managing capital entrusted to it by another entity. The Capital Protector entity could be an individual, an organization, or even a set of affiliated organizations who have a shared interest in preserving a set of capital.*
What are examples of Capital Protectors at work?
- For-profit healthcare providers working to provide care while also provide return on investments to shareholders who support them.
- Healthcare VCs try to generate largest possible revenues and ROI for new medical devices and treatments.
- Health system finance teams trying to ensure healthy balance sheets.
- Health insurers trying to maintain required reserves.
These entities have a large set of protective instruments at their disposal. A few examples (each of these are actually *categories* of protective instruments):
- [Political connections](https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2021/07/big-pharma-largest-lobbying-spender-biden-crackdown/?ref=s3t.org) to ensure that rules are written in their favor or at least written fairly.
- [Insurance barriers](https://coveragerights.org/insurance-barriers/?ref=s3t.org) that can be used to reduce how much is paid to cover a patient's treatment cost.
- Regulation designed to [protect investors](https://www.sec.gov/about/what-we-do?ref=s3t.org) and [protect capital](https://mcmahonsolicitors.ie/capital-protection/?ref=s3t.org).
**So where does the moral hazard arise?**
If we state what moral hazard is in simple terms...
*If I am given some kind of advantage, I may be tempted to take advantage of it in an inappropriate manner.*
We can restate the moral hazard premise as follows:
*Moral hazard in healthcare exists when capital protectors use the large set of protective instruments at their disposal to obtain one-sided benefits for themselves at the expense of individuals who need healthcare.*
### **Summary: Conventional Wisdom vs Reality**
The *conventional* healthcare industry thinking on moral hazard holds the following:
- Moral hazard exists and it is a risk to the industry
- **Consumers** are alleged to be the cause and source of this moral hazard
- Onerous mechanisms like cost and complexity are appropriate and necessary for managing this moral hazard
**It turns out that Capital Protectors may actually be the source of moral hazard in healthcare.** *This raises the interesting question: what might be the "onerous mechanisms" appropriate and necessary for managing this moral hazard?*
And is an onerous control mechanism actually what is needed?
Maybe what is needed is a change in mindset that reframes the risk/reward equation and aligns our shared interests in a more productive equitable way?
We need to lay a new policy foundation for this reframing so we can correct the distorted economics of US healthcare. This reframing would start with the question: **What are the responsibilities of capital managers to their societies?**
If we want to achieve this kind of foundational change in healthcare, then what is the most timely and effective approach for doing so?
At a minimum we need to start challenging the status quo thinking so we can drive affordability in more meaningful ways. **We should also begin actively experimenting with ideas outside of the canon of traditional health insurance underwriting so we can take more meaningful steps toward enabling affordability.** This kind of financial innovation may be able to reveal a new path forward for an industry where our math has changed, our values have chanted but our mental models are still rooted in 18th century economics.
**Further Reading**
- [Learning Path & Recommended Reading for Healthcare Leaders](https://www.s3t.org/learning-path-for-healthcare-leaders/)
- [Implementation Paths and the Evolution of Governance](https://www.s3t.org/evolution%5Fof%5Fgovernance/).
### Implementation Paths and the Evolution of Governance
URL: https://www.s3t.org/evolution_of_governance/
Last updated: 2025-10-19T14:52:15.000Z
Different governance models offer different pathways for implementation.
##
As change leaders, we naturally seek the fastest path rapidly solve the complex and urgent problems of our time.
Learning how to solve a complex problem requires *attempts* at implementing solutions, learning from the implementation attempts, and iterating or pivoting until the desired outcomes are being achieved.
Given this, it's helpful to know what implementation platforms are available and which ones allow for the *most empirical learning in the least amount of time* (and money).
Implementation platforms have a direct relationship with governance, and governance is evolving as shown in the featured image above.
Note: we use "governance" here to refer to the kind of control, constraints, rules that exist at the macro level (national, global). This is analogous to the more typical use of the term "governance" in the organizational context - but it exists at a larger scale.
### **Implementation Path #1: Decree**
The world's oldest implementation platform - where a king, religious leader or similar power decrees that something will be built, invaded or enforced - still has relevance today. Authoritarian governments follow this playbook when they do things like ban bitcoin mining, for example. Large transnational companies can also weld this kind of power.
Limitations of this approach:
- It stems from centralized ideation that is narrowly focused on serving the needs of those in power.
- It overlooks or suppresses the needs and human rights of its dependent populations.
- You can't use this option unless you are the one with the power.
### **Implementation Path #2: Legislation**
Typically the first thought of implementation platform is the law. If you want to implement change, write policies and legislation and get them enacted into law. Once the law is passed, think tanks and universities conduct studies reviewing the impact and cost-benefits of the policy, and recommend changes (or often, further study 🙂 ).
Limitations of this approach:
- In spite of representational mechanisms, legislation often does not seem to address the full set of needs and concerns of constituents.
- Political gridlock often prevents meaningful progress. This breeds frustration among the voter base.
### **Implementation Path #3: Software Release**
Today we have a newer, faster way of implementing large solutions (and sometimes large problems): Building an releasing a platform or app - think Facebook, TikTok, Slack and think about the huge influences they have had. Emerging blockchain architectures seem set to push this even further, by combining code, currency and governance into a single programmable layer.
**Compare the speed of these platforms**
Legislation is the slowest Implementation Path. Consider Healthcare Reform:
- FDR mulled and then abandoned a healthcare agenda,
- Eisenhower briefly floated a National Reinsurance Program,
- Hillary Clinton proposed reforms that were rejected.
- Finally the ACA implemented a set of measures that achieved notable improvements in national coverage, but continue to be debated and questioned by partisan players.
In addition to being the slowest implementation platform, legislation is also - thanks to the partisan bedlam that surrounds any meaningful change - the least likely to allow empirical learning and clear conclusions. Policy does not lead. It lags and gridlocks. Over and over lawmakers struggle to understand the changes being put in motion by technology - whether from the rise of the Internet, or more recently the rise of blockchain based ecosystems.
By contrast consider the rapid rise of software driven [transnational corporations](https://bostonreview.net/articles/beyond-the-nation-state/?ref=s3t.org) like Facebook/Meta and the impactful platforms and new patterns it implemented: from a small group of college students to a collective user base larger than most nations of the world, developing its own currency and demonstrating more soft power and influence than most nations of the world.
Today emerging decentralized blockchain architectures, and *the *financial ecosystems* being built on top of them*, show indications of unleashing change in even bigger and faster ways. These architectures do not simply offer building blocks of code - the building blocks are **both code and at the same time programmable financial primitives. That's why they represent an evolutionary forward step in governance.**
Consider Bitcoin. It has become one of the world's most highly valued investments, yet it has no corporate structure, no employees, never filed for any approvals, and marks the first widely adopted store of value and form of currency that was not created and controlled by a government.
The point is, software releases offer much faster more scalable implementation paths than legislation can. If you are serious about solving the pressing problems in your community, nation or world, your options for faster implementation are getting better all the time.
### **Full circle" but with a twist**
If you go way back, one of the earlier implementation platforms were the decreed charters that European kings granted to shipping companies. The charters granted wide powers enabling these companies to exploit the natural resources of colonized territories, provide increased tax revenues for the crown, and - where possible - employ piracy to interfere with the colonial profit-making of other European nation-states.
The implementation platform that enabled this colonial era was primarily a *financial* one. The roots of our modern insurance industry derive from this era.
As we stand on the threshold of the next generation financial ecosystem it feels a little like we have come full circle.
But this time, instead of working solely for the health and wealth of a few European kings, we could have a chance to be focused on enabling a healthy wealthy world.
That is exactly what an unsung cohort of founders and builders are working towards. They don't make the daily headlines but they are out there, patiently working. Every day is a new opportunity to be part of that work.
## Reflect and prepare to implement in your work
###
Review questions
First, 3 review questions to test your learning about change leadership:
1. **What are the three implementation platforms discussed in the text, and what are the key limitations of each?**
2. **How does the speed and effectiveness of software release as an implementation platform compare to legislation, and why is this significant for solving complex problems?**
3. **What historical example is provided to illustrate the evolution of implementation platforms, and how does it connect to modern financial ecosystems like blockchain?**
### Apply your new lens
What you've learned here gives you a new lens that can bring new ideas and insights when you are planning new companies, initiatives, or products:
**#1\. Leverage Software-Driven Implementation for Speed and Scalability.** When developing new products or initiatives, prioritize solutions that can be implemented through software platforms. Look for opportunities to "force" new ways of working or processing - leverage rapid iteration, scalability, and the ability to gather empirical data quickly and act on it.
**#2\. Focus on Decentralized and User-Centric Models**. Learn from the limitations of centralized approaches (like decrees) and design solutions that empower users and stakeholders. For instance, consider how blockchain ecosystems enable decentralized governance and financial primitives, creating more inclusive and transparent systems. Apply this mindset to your ideation by asking, "How can my solution give power and value back to the end user?"
**#3\. Iterate and Learn from Feedback.** Embrace an iterative approach to problem-solving. Launch minimum viable products (MVPs) or pilot programs, gather feedback, and refine your solution based on real-world data. This aligns with the text’s emphasis on empirical learning and avoids the pitfalls of slow, rigid implementation paths like legislation.
**#4\. Explore Emerging Technologies and Financial Ecosystems**. Stay informed about cutting-edge technologies like blockchain, decentralized finance (DeFi), and programmable financial primitives. Consider how these tools can be integrated into your product or initiative to create innovative, impactful solutions. For example, could your idea benefit from tokenization, smart contracts, or decentralized governance structures?
By applying these tips, you can create faster, more scalable, and user-focused solutions that align with modern implementation platforms and address pressing problems effectively.
---
### Click here to continue go to the next learning segment: [The upside of wicked problems](https://www.s3t.org/the-upside-of-wicked-problems/)
*The 21st century has an epidemic of "wicked problems." What approaches offer the best chances of resolving or containing them?*
##
### Housing Prices and Monetary Policy
URL: https://www.s3t.org/ferguson-pattern/
Last updated: 2024-10-07T02:14:30.000Z
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### "Featured On" Program
URL: https://www.s3t.org/featured/
Last updated: 2024-12-01T14:13:08.000Z
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URL: https://www.s3t.org/welcome-fullaccess/
Last updated: 2026-08-01T02:40:37.000Z
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###
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*Welcome!*
### Crypto Investment Cultures
URL: https://www.s3t.org/crypto-investment-cultures/
Last updated: 2024-12-01T14:10:23.000Z
*The unprecedented clash of different investing cultures*
### By 2020 two basic kinds of crypto investors were evident: Mavericks and Mainstreamers:
- **Mavericks** \- the original diehard Bitcoin (and altcoin) HODLrs. These individuals believe that central banks and fiat currencies are fatally flawed and that crypto offers a better future well worth the risk and volatility.
- **Mainstreamers** \- the newer entrants who didn’t want to miss out on huge gains they were hearing about.
### By 2021 Mainstreamers could be divided into 2 subgroups - Corporate vs Retail:
- **Corporate** \- established institutional investors and fund managers, corporations (Microstrategies, Tesla) and finance (BNY Mellon, PayPal) probably nudged by Paul Tudor Jones' [inflation thesis](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/07/paul-tudor-jones-reportedly-buys-bitcoin-as-an-inflation-hedge-compares-crypto-to-70s-gold-trade.html?ref=s3t.org).
- **Retail** \- individual often non-qualified investors day trading via consumer apps like Robin Hood, Coinbase etc.
The financial press [noticed](https://www.yahoo.com/now/43-of-retail-investors-are-trading-with-leverage-survey-172744302.html?ref=s3t.org) and [worried](https://www.ft.com/content/ff39c4b7-401d-4b03-8d7b-48e7fbc25237?ref=s3t.org) that Retail Mainstreamers made excessive use of leverage - borrowing in order to bet on future price movements. When they bet wrong, forced liquidations had a cascading effect and caused the market to plunge.
### But who caused the crashes?
If you think the 2021 bubble and crash was exacerbated *primarily* by Retail Mainstreamers, listen to NLW unpack [how the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust NAV trade *also* contributed to the bubble](https://www.coindesk.com/podcasts/the-breakdown-with-nlw/are-gbtc-unwinds-bullish-or-bearish-for-bitcoin?ref=s3t.org) (and wait til you hear how goofy it was).
So no we can't blame this entirely on inexperienced retail investors using too much leverage. Corporate investors played a role as well.
### Takeaway
There is so much we don't know about this emerging new financial ecosystem. It has so much promise. And yes, crypto prices are in most cases higher than they were a few years ago. And the inflation thesis remains compelling for most categories of crypto investers (Related: David Leonhardt lays out arguments and indicators for [high vs low inflation scenarios](https://messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/template/oakv2?abVariantId=1&campaign%5Fid=9&emc=edit%5Fnn%5F20210617&instance%5Fid=33222&nl=the-morning&productCode=NN®i%5Fid=116853498&segment%5Fid=60936&te=1&uri=nyt%3A%2F%2Fnewsletter%2Fa2fb04ff-7fb3-55f7-98bb-d845e6f175c5&user%5Fid=e3bbd04d4db4c803fc4a5f0a58fc7833&ref=s3t.org) for next 2 years.)
But all of us - not just the regulators - still have an extremely limited understanding of how our behaviors impact the overall system and its participants. And things are evolving FAST. This is a crash course and need to take notes as fast as we can.
### 4 Phases of Risk & Reward for Emerging Tech
URL: https://www.s3t.org/4-phases-of-risk-reward-for-emerging-tech/
Last updated: 2025-01-23T02:39:50.000Z
##
*To be effective - and effectively leverage technology - change leaders need to understand (and leverage) how "New & Unfamiliar" tech becomes "Accepted & Familiar" tech over time. This is a foundational aspect of the emerging tech literacy that change leaders need in order to be effective.*
### New technologies (and new things in general) tend to emerge in a 4 phase pattern.
As this pattern unfolds the new technology becomes more understood and accepted over time. This pattern reflects the diverse ways humans respond to new technologies - **we don't *all* jump in all at once.**
The risks and opportunities of emerging technologies become more apparent to more people over a timeline that can be divided into 4 phases:
1. Experimentation > 2\. Stabilization > 3\. Adoption > 4\. Absorption
Understanding these four phases isn’t just useful; it’s essential. It will help you anticipate the kinds of concerns that your stakeholders will raise when you propose a bold idea.
Different categories of investors and stakeholders have different levels of tolerance for different phases. Some with high risk tolerance will prefer to be involved as early as possible. Others will prefer to get on board later. We will examine why this is, and how you can use this understanding to increase your ability to influence and drive change.
This simple 4 phase pattern gives change leaders a helpful framework for anticipating, empathizing with and addressing the concerns of stakeholders. It will help you manage your communication and messaging to gain buy-in effectively. This framework is a game-changer for anyone serious about driving intentional, lasting innovation while preserving relationships and achieving buy-in. For those who aspire to lead change at scale, mastery of these phases is not optional—it’s the foundation of success.
### How to leverage this pattern for better success
Keep this pattern in mind when crafting enterprise roadmaps that include the exploration or adoption of emerging technologies, or when thinking about the level of risks facing a new set of capabilities - say web3 - and *the timing of risks and opportunities* in that emergence.
2 Key points:
1. The *types of risks* and the *levels of risk* are NOT static across these 4 phrases: they change (for investors and other participants) as this pattern unfolds from one phase to the next.
2. Likewise the *rewards* also change as the phases progress.
You can use this knowledge to build empathy, improve your mobilization and persuasion track record: it will help you know who is ready to come along with your new idea or initiative, and who may not be.
### Key: Understand how the risks and rewards *change* as you move from one phase to the next
The following sections break out each phase and describe the specific risk and reward combinations in each. Understanding this will help you think about
- what kind of participant or investor you want to be, and
- how and when you want to get involved.
It can also be used to help a group of organizational stakeholders or venture partners decide how/when they want to approach a specific set of opportunities or risks related to emerging tech.
### Phase I: Experimentation
The new thing is not well understood, even by its most diehard practitioners.
- Risk is high and its magnitude and implications are very unclear.
- Reward is low, over-stated, or unclear.
Players with the ability to accept risk have a *slight* chance of gaining significant rewards. This is the domain of pioneers who are intrinsically motivated to blaze new trails regardless of risk. As an example, this Phase for cryptocurrency (and the emerging financial ecosystem it is spawning), in my estimation, was something like 2009-2022\. A relatively small cohort reaped outsized gains, but this was the exception.
### Phase 2: Stabilization
The new thing is becoming more understood by those who focus on it, and they understand it well enough to sometimes eek out good results for themselves or for a narrow group of stakeholders, but its broader impacts to other stakeholders or the broader community is still not fully understood.
- Risk is significant, and its implications (what could go wrong, how bad it would be) are still not fully understood.
- Rewards are becoming clearer, and may be significantly better than what is available in the status quo.
Players with the ability to accept higher risk have a reasonable chance at gaining significant rewards. This is the domain of the risk seeking investor and early adopters. For cryptocurrency this Phase may have been 2017-2023, and yes, maybe phases overlap.
### Phase 3: Adoption
In this phase the new thing is becoming more commonly understood and accessible, easier to use.
- Risks are tapering to be more in line with risks present in the existing status quo. By this time, stable laws and regulations have emerged, which give more conservative participants confidence that they understand the rules of the road, and how they can succeed.
- Rewards are commonly recognized as significantly better than what is available from the status quo, and there is enough of a track record to give consumers and regulators confidence on this point. Companies and consultants begin to formulate strategies for harnessing the new tech for competitive advantage. Adoption accelerates as companies or individuals fear they will be marginalized or left out of the "big new thing."
This is the domain of the mainstream adopters. They may not have the resources and risk appetite of the earlier adopters and investors, but they will participate if they perceive that the risks inherent in the new financial ecosystem are becoming similar in magnitude to the risks presents in the existing financial ecosystem.
As an example, as of early 2024 crypto appeared to be in the early stages of the adoption phase, given the 2024 ETF approvals, and developments like [Fidelity's offerings and investor education material](https://www.fidelity.com/crypto/overview?ref=s3t.org).
### Phase 4: Absorption
The new thing is no longer new. It has been fully absorbed by the market, and now has *become* the new **status quo**. Ironically, its adherents will likely be resistant to whatever new things are now emerging.
- Rewards are no longer significantly better than what is available in the status quo.
- Risks are not significantly different/worse than what is available in the status quo.
This *can* become the domain of laggards, the inertia class, those who are comfortable, basking in the receding glow of past successes.
### What You Just Learned:
You’ve explored the 4-phase process by which emerging technologies move from "New & Unfamiliar" to "Accepted & Familiar." This framework—Experimentation, Stabilization, Adoption, and Absorption—highlights how risks and rewards shift as technologies mature. This in turn should influence how you communicate with stakeholders, and how and when you choose to engage them.
Understanding these phases equips change leaders to craft more effective roadmaps, have empathy for different stakeholders, and improve their ability to mobilize teams and resources. By recognizing how risks and rewards evolve, you can better navigate opportunities, anticipate challenges, and align your proposals and communication to match the readiness levels of your audience or organization.
### Reflection Questions:
1. Which phase of the adoption process do you find yourself most comfortable in? Can you think of advantages that you might gain if you stretch beyond that comfort zone?
2. How can you apply your understanding these four phases to help you approach the adoption of a new technology in your organization or community?
3. What strategies can you use to build empathy and mobilize stakeholders who are hesitant to embrace emerging technologies?
---
### Click here to go to the next learning segment: [Implementation paths and the evolution of governance](https://www.s3t.org/evolution%5Fof%5Fgovernance/)
*Governance (the way nations and industries implement and enforce policies) is evolving. This evolution gives change leaders new options.*
### Crypto Regulation Perspective
URL: https://www.s3t.org/crypto-regulation-perspective/
Last updated: 2024-12-01T14:09:28.000Z
###
### Pain of the Current vs Next systems
A review of the conversation on crypto regulations seems to ignore the very real pain of the dysfunctional current system, while giving disproportionate weight to sometimes real sometimes hypothetical pains of the emerging system.
One gets the impression that the comfortable incumbents who benefit from the status quo have already "priced in" the pain and dysfunction of the current system, and concluded that since it doesn't impact them personally, they can safely ignore it when making comparisons to the emerging system.
To be clear the regulatory community has conscientious, compassionate individuals who are dedicated to serving the public good, and for them, these comments are a cheap shot.
These comments are not directed at them, but rather at a behavior that we should have a conversation about.
**A direct appeal to regulators**
The headline commentary from the regulator community so far screams a near total absence of first hand experience, hypothesizing from afar, opining on things one has clearly not taken the time to personally learn and test.
This is ironic because the crypto space is hard wired for participation, with low barriers to entry. Nothing stops anyone of us from trying this stuff and learning firsthand.
And specifically from me to you: if you are a financial regulator, you most likely *can afford* \- better than most Americans - to test and learn first hand. Open a crypto account, invest in altcoins and stablecoins and see for yourself. Put your bitcoin up as collateral, make yourself a loan. Convert between alt and stablecoins. Create and trade NFTs and see what that's all about. Try all the different things the rest of us are trying.
In other words, *participate.* Learn along with the rest of us. You'll see that there is a lot here that is far from perfect and frankly frustrating. And you'll see where *the real issues* can occur, and *the real work and governance* needs to happen.
There is a world of good and a world of hurt that can come out of this space. It is not without risk. But it is important enough to the future of the world's economies and the future of individuals and families, to warrant you and me personally investing time in first hand learning. If we take a *test and learn* approach our input will be way more relevant and helpful than the hypothesizing of those who never actually got involved.
A potential objection of someone with regulatory responsibilities might be: "*Hey I'd love to participate and test and learn, but will I be creating a conflict of interest if I do this?*" If that is your active concern, one option is to create or support innovation safe harbor legislation, [like this example](https://financialinnovationnow.org/2019/10/21/fin-applauds-rep-mchenrys-financial-services-innovation-act-of-2019/?ref=s3t.org).
And know this: People in the US and other countries are testing and learning because they **don't have a strong sense of confidence in the current system**. On a gut level, most Americans are clear on one thing: you can't rely on wages alone. You've got to have some kind of access to capital that will grow in value or else you won't have what you need for you and your family. That reality is driving what the comfortable like to label - condescendingly - as "reckless retail investor behavior".
The emerging crypto space is immature and full of rough edges, but already it appears to be more capable, more efficient, more open, more accessible and equitable than anything we've seen from the current financial ecosystem, with its voluminous history of corruption, racial bias, onerous fee structures, lopsided inequity and its undeniable track record of reserving meaningful upside for its centralized inner circle while tossing crumbs and fees to the rest of the world.
Our opportunity is to see how to maximize the good and prevent the bad - and we can do that together with a test and learn approach.
### Learning Path for Healthcare Change Leaders
URL: https://www.s3t.org/learning-path-for-healthcare-leaders/
Last updated: 2025-12-19T22:49:02.000Z
*A very different kind of healthcare system - simpler, more affordable, more cost-effective, and more functional - is very possible. But it requires a willingness to swap out some long-standing assumptions and mental models. The following learning path is designed for leaders who want to get educated on how healthcare could and should work.*
## Books
The following books provide grounding in the finance and risk management approaches that underpin insurance in general, with a specific focus on the mental models that guide these approaches.
- *The Economics, Regulation, and Systemic Risk of Insurance Markets* Koijen, Hufeld and Thimann - Oxford Press. Provides grounding in what can go wrong in insurance and risk transfer methods, and approaches for protecting beneficiaries.
- *Embracing Risk - The Changing Culture of Insurance and Responsibility* \- Collection edited by Tom Baker & Jonathan Simon. University of Chicago Press. Includes Deborah Stone's essay "Beyond Moral Hazard: Insurance as Moral Opportunity."
- *Managing Risk in Reinsurance* Hauter and Jones - Oxford Press. Deep coverage of the evolution of reinsurance and the financial innovation driving better approaches.
- *Health Policy Issues - An Economic Perspective* Feldstein - Health Administration Press – Overview of healthcare policy challenges and opportunities.
- *Against the Gods The Remarkable History of Risk* Bernstein - John Wiley and Sons – helpful history of risk management and how frameworks of thought (moral hazard for example) continue to evolve.
- *Capital in the 21st Century* Picketty – Belknap Harvard Press – definitive guide to the social impact of capital management practices.
- *Deep Medicine* Topol – Basic Books – Scan of technology innovations impacting healthcare from a medical perspective.
- *The Exponential Age* Azar – Diversion Books – Explanation of the “exponential” thesis: how the combinatorial effects of recent technology innovations (cloud, AI, blockchain) are combining to drive accelerated change.
- *The Economics of Social Issues* – Sharp, Register and Grimes – Irwin Books – covers impact of health policies and practices on communities and populations.
- *Bullshit Jobs* David Graeber - Simon and Schuster - Snarky but spot on analysis of why regulated industries that pool and manage funds tend toward wastefulness. Required reading for anyone who wants to understand the *artificial complexity and cost* of healthcare.
- Somers and Somers have published a number of pieces about the progression of health insurance in the 20th century, for example: H. M. Somers & A. R. Somers, *Doctors, Patients and Health Insurance.* The Organization and Financing of Medical Care. Washington, The Brookings Institution, 1961
## Online Resources
###
### History of Health Insurance
- [Health Insurance 2nd Edition](https://account.ache.org/iweb/upload/Morrisey2253%5FChapter%5F1-3b5f4e08.pdf?ref=s3t.org) (PDF) - Good coverage of History of Health Insurance.
- [Origins and Evolution of Employment-Based Health Benefits](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK235989/?ref=s3t.org) (NIH)
- [Regulation of Employment-Based Health Benefits](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK235993/?ref=s3t.org): The Intersection of State and Federal Law
- Somers, Herman M.. "[PRIVATE HEALTH INSURANCE: PROGRESS AND PROBLEMS](https://doi.org/10.4159/harvard.9780674593244.c10?ref=s3t.org)". Hospitals, Doctors, and the Public Interest, edited by John H. Knowles, Cambridge, MA and London, England: Harvard University Press, 2013, pp. 187-200\. [Another link here](https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.4159/harvard.9780674593244.c10/pdf?ref=s3t.org).
- *Health Care in the Early 1960s* \- Rosemary A. Stevens, Ph.D. Synopsis with very helpful list of [related reference material here](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4193636/?ref=s3t.org#b1-hcfr-18-2-11). [Full text here](https://www.cms.gov/Research-Statistics-Data-and-Systems/Research/HealthCareFinancingReview/Downloads/CMS1191466dl.pdf?ref=s3t.org) (PDF).
Several summaries of the history of insurance have been published, usually from the perspective of employer brokers:
- Academic Health Plans [summarized history of US private insurance](https://www.ahpcare.com/a-brief-history-of-private-insurance-in-the-united-states/?ref=s3t.org).
- Griffin Benefits published materials on the [history of employer sponsored healthcare](https://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/457237/JP%5FGriffin%5FGroup%5FHistory%5Fof%5FEmployer%5FSponsored%5FHealthcare.pdf?ref=s3t.org).
- American College of Healthcare Executive's [History of Development of Healthcare in America](https://account.ache.org/iweb/upload/Cellucci%5FCh1-e8991004.pdf?ref=s3t.org).
### Key Issues
- **Moral Hazard:** [The Moral-Hazard Myth](https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2005/08/29/the-moral-hazard-myth?ref=s3t.org) 2005 New Yorker essay by Malcolm Gladwell.
- **Regulatory Capture:** [The Theory of Economic Regulation](https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwiW-rvG3u%5F6AhUaFlkFHVW9Cj4QFnoECA0QAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fedisciplinas.usp.br%2Fpluginfile.php%2F4866368%2Fmod%5Ffolder%2Fcontent%2F0%2FAula%25201.%2520STIGLER%252C%2520George%2520J.%2520The%2520Theory%2520of%2520Economic%2520Regulation.%2520In%2520Bell%2520Jo..%5F.pdf%3Fforcedownload%3D1&usg=AOvVaw0BiCpirOVchdM1fDuFu1Pl) (PDF) by George Stigler. The original articulation of the problem of "Regulatory Capture" where a regulated industry ends up "capturing" (manipulating) regulators and regulatory frameworks for its own interests. Very helpful for understanding the artificial cost and complexity of healthcare.
- **Prior Auth:** [Prior Authorization as a driver of risk and cost](https://www.ama-assn.org/system/files/prior-authorization-survey.pdf?ref=s3t.org) (PDF). See also [FixPriorAuth.org](https://fixpriorauth.org/?ref=s3t.org) which collects stories of prior auth impacts to patients and providers. [What is being done about it](https://www.ama-assn.org/practice-management/prior-authorization/prior-authorization?ref=s3t.org).
- **Physician Burnout:** [Documentation Requirements Drive Physician Burnout](https://ehrintelligence.com/news/excessive-documentation-staffing-challenges-driving-clinician-burnout?ref=s3t.org)
- **Waste:** [Administrative inefficiencies drive 250B in waste in healthcare](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/healthcare/our-insights/administrative-simplification-how-to-save-a-quarter-trillion-dollars-in-us-healthcare?ref=s3t.org)
### Emerging Tech impacting Healthcare
- [BNY Mellon Digital Revolution Reports](https://www.bny.com/corporate/global/en/insights/download-digital-revolution-financial-markets-report.html?ref=s3t.org): How BNY is connecting traditional and digital infrastructure for more cost-effective transactions and financial instruments. Covers emerging financial infrastructure, digital cash equivalents and tokenization.
- [Overview of Decentralized Finance](https://ethereum.org/en/defi/?ref=s3t.org) (De-Fi) published on Ethereum.org.
- National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) published a [listing of anticipated blockchain use cases for insurance](https://content.naic.org/cipr%5Ftopics/topic%5Fblockchain%5Ftechnology.htm?ref=s3t.org).
### Models and Simulations
- The [Health Insurance Policy Simulation Model for 2020](https://www.urban.org/research/publication/health-insurance-policy-simulation-model-2020?ref=s3t.org): Current Baseline and Methodology - The Urban Institute. Used to model implications of key healthcare policy decisions including ACA repeal.
- [A Dynamic Model of a Nonlife Insurance Company](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/305893978%5FA%5Fdynamic%5Fmodel%5Fof%5Fa%5Fnonlife%5Finsurance%5Fcompany?ref=s3t.org) \- Mustafa Akan Dogus Universitesi · Economics and administrative sciences Ph.D. Explores the value of "goodwill" (roughly Net Promoter Scores) and its relationship to "technical capability" (business competence), with a model recommending when to invest in each.
### S3T.ORG - The Halloween Edition, Big Tech & Crypto, Future of Fiber, DAO Best Practices, Is Decentralization Real?...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3toct31_page_linkedin/
Last updated: 2024-12-01T14:02:46.000Z
## 📈 📉 Macro & Key Developments
### Hopeful Signs
Economic growth measured by the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) [beat expectations last week, rising 2.6%](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/27/us-gdp-accelerated-at-2point6percent-pace-in-q3-better-than-expected-as-growth-turns-positive.html?ref=s3t.org) and Bitcoin kissed 21,000 for the first time in a while early Saturday morning. Still food shortages loom around the world ([here](https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/10/25/world-bank-disburses-additional-500-million-the-latest-tranche-of-11-4-billion-provided-to-ukraine?cid=ECR%5FLI%5FWorldbank%5FEN%5FEXT%5Fprofilesubscribe&ref=s3t.org) and [here](https://blogs.worldbank.org/voices/empower-her-address-food-and-nutrition-security-africa?cid=ECR%5FLI%5FWorldbank%5FEN%5FEXT%5Fprofilesubscribe&ref=s3t.org)), and 55% of Americans [are behind on retirement savings](https://www.bankrate.com/retirement/retirement-savings-survey-october-2022/?ref=s3t.org).
Iranian women continue [fighting for freedom](https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-middle-east-63148420?ref=s3t.org), amid hope that this time they will prevail. [How you can help](https://www.wfpg.org/wfpg-in-support-of-iranian-women?ref=s3t.org).
### Big Tech & Crypto Pairing Up
Binance - the worlds largest crypto exchange and $500M equity partner with Elon Musk's takeover of Twitter - [is forming a team to assist Twitter's crypto plans](https://www.reuters.com/technology/crypto-exchange-binance-musks-co-investor-help-twitter-with-blockchain-2022-10-28/?ref=s3t.org). **In a similar vein**, [Coinbase announced a partnership with Google](https://www.yahoo.com/now/google-partners-coinbase-experts-see-171841141.html?ref=s3t.org) this week (more about this in the next segment).
---
## 🔎 Closer Examination: Fiber & Decentralization
*A look at the future of infrastructure and the emerging question of how far "down the stack" decentralization will need to go.*
> New [#dataviz](https://twitter.com/hashtag/dataviz?src=hash&ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org)! The Earth's submarine fiber optic cable network, visualized in [#RStats](https://twitter.com/hashtag/RStats?src=hash&ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org) with [#rayrender](https://twitter.com/hashtag/rayrender?src=hash&ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org).
>
> Code:[https://t.co/6tFsS4vfAK](https://t.co/6tFsS4vfAK?ref=s3t.org)
>
> Rayrender Github:[https://t.co/iB5nWhGY7l](https://t.co/iB5nWhGY7l?ref=s3t.org) [pic.twitter.com/1FTKM0FPHr](https://t.co/1FTKM0FPHr?ref=s3t.org)
>
> — Tyler Morgan-Wall (@tylermorganwall) [September 22, 2021](https://twitter.com/tylermorganwall/status/1440669533157556227?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org)
Consider the evolution of the World Wide Web in relation to fiber optic networks:
- Web1 (Read Only) largely predated fiber optic networks.
- Web2 (Read & Write) was enabled by the higher speeds of fiber optic networks
- Web3 (Read, Write, Execute, Own) - *for now* \- relies on this same network.
But is the future state of Web3 (as presaged by the design requirements demanded by some of its champions) actually compatible with the current ownership structure and capabilities of current fiber optic networks?
Starting point context:
- Existing Web2 players seek involvement in Web3\. For example [Google Cloud / Coinbase partnership](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/google-cloud-and-coinbase-launch-new-strategic-partnership-to-drive-web3-innovation-301645592.html?ref=s3t.org) announced last week, bringing Coinbase's payment and [Cloud Node](https://www.coinbase.com/cloud/products/node?ref=s3t.org) functionality to Google Cloud (Also: [why this matters for crypto](https://www.makeuseof.com/coinbase-google-partnership-why-huge-for-crypto/?ref=s3t.org)).
- Distinction between basic vs premium fiber. The Google/Coinbase partnership noted above lets Coinbase its clients and developers [use Google's Premium Fiber-Optic Network](https://www.pymnts.com/partnerships/2022/google-cloud-coinbase-team-to-serve-web3-developers/?ref=s3t.org). (Premium [moves data faster w fewer hops](https://cloud.google.com/blog/topics/developers-practitioners/googles-subsea-fiber-optics-explained?ref=s3t.org)).
- Changes to the fiber optic equipment will be required due to sea level rise over the next 15 years. See [this report for detailed analysis](http://ix.cs.uoregon.edu/~ram/papers/ANRW-2018.pdf?ref=s3t.org) and publicly traded companies with the highest risks. And this AAX note on [current vulnerabilities in the current internet infrastructure](https://trends.aax.com/how-decentralized-is-the-internet?ref=s3t.org).
- Web3 will be maturing alongside other scaling technologies (think IOT, 5G and beyond, etc) and will likely have greater and greater bandwidth requirements due to its design and intended use.
Taken together these 4 points suggests what to anticipate:
_This page is for paying subscribers only._
### ⌛How to protect your time and focus in an uncertain economy
URL: https://www.s3t.org/protect-your-time/
Last updated: 2024-12-19T00:52:23.000Z
*In the next 6 months your company and customers will face tough decisions. You want to be on the right side of those decisions when they happen.*
To ensure that, you will want to protect your time and your focus - while staying ahead of the curve - so you can be proactive and relevant. But how best to preserve your time and focus?
Here's 1 practical choice to tilt the odds in your favor: **relevant just-in-time learning.**
Meaning: There are LOTs of sources for learning. But they are not equally valuable. Many may waste your time.
You need to find ways to get more concise insights in less time. Cut to the heart of the matter, quickly understand the pivotal pieces of the situation and then leverage that understanding for the benefit of your partners and customers.
## Inviting you to join S3T Full Access
S3T(pronounced "set") is a change leadership newsletter and portal designed to give you concise insights you need *in less time*. These insights will save you time, and *save you trial and error*. If you're ready, [**Start your free 30 day trial here.**](https://www.s3t.org/change-leadership-30-day-free-trial)
### ⏱️Here's what makes S3T a better use of your time:
1. **Concise not verbose** \- Instead of large paragraphs that make your eyes glaze over, quick bullet points and sharp insights that cut to the heart of the matter.
2. ***"Best of"* not "*One of"*** \- You need perspectives that **challenge** your thinking. You don't need repeats of things you've heard 100 times.
3. **Empathy not "Look-at-Me"** \- Many newsletters and influencers sound like: "I'm insanely $ucce$$ful and here's my 3 easy steps!" If you are working to change something in the world, it's challenging. **You need to hear from people who understand that.** Recent years made it easy to confuse *having an impact* vs. *grabbing easy capital.* They're different.
4. **Skin in the game not sideline commentary** \- Who is writing this? Is this their life's work? What do they have to lose if they're wrong? This makes a big difference in the quality of the research.
Bottom Line: **Know what your time is worth. Invest in relevant just in time expertise that saves you time** and makes you more effective and influential.
I created and refined S3T (pronounced "set") - the premier change leadership community - with these exact points in mind, because I wanted to give change leaders a way to invest in their own success and impact.
Each week in S3T I share crucial insights I uncover in my research and industry conversations, as I look for indicators of how to invest my resources and focus. I also share from my own emerging tech and innovation experience so others can benefit.
### [**Start your free 30 day trial here.**](https://www.s3t.org/change-leadership-30-day-free-trial) You're not just subscribing, you're choosing to level up! Welcome!
## Posts
### Economic Resilience: Sept 11 Then vs Now
URL: https://www.s3t.org/sept-11-economic-resilience/
Last updated: 2026-09-11T21:20:47.000Z
S3T PodCast Sept 11 2026
0:00
/924.3951020408164
1×
Twenty-five years ago today the United States entered the 9/11 era that in many ways has been reshaping the world ever since. My family and friends have been reflecting on where we were when it happened, and sharing memories with the younger generation who weren't even born in 2001.
It is useful to compare the economic strength then vs now. In 2001 the nation was coming out of the dot.com bubble but also possessed considerably more fiscal room to respond to shocks like the terrible events of 9/11\. Consider these differences:
- Federal debt held by the public in 2001 was approximately one-third of GDP, compared with nearly 100% today, according to [Federal Reserve economic data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYGFGDQ188S?ref=s3t.org).
- Healthcare spending [was 1.4Trillion - about 14% of GDP](https://www.cms.gov/newsroom/press-releases/report-details-national-health-care-spending-increases-2001?ref=s3t.org), compared to $[5.7T today, about 18.4% of GDP](https://www.aha.org/news/headline/2026-06-25-cms-projects-national-health-spending-grew-57-trillion-2025?ref=s3t.org).
In 2001 the US had a shock absorbing ability that it may not have now.
### National resilience depends on more than the strength of financial markets, corporate earnings or headline GDP.
It also depends on the reserves held across society—the savings, income stability, affordable necessities and access to credit that allow households, businesses and government to absorb a sudden shock.
The latest edition of the [S3T Economic Experience Dashboard](https://www.s3t.org/eed/) is now available for paid membership with updated data for Q3\. This latest edition reveals a concern that speaks directly to national resilience:
The portion of the US population experiencing moderate to severe financial distress has risen sharply since Q4 2025 when the Economic Experience Dashboard was first launched.
43% of the American population are facing moderate or severe financial distress - meaning they must make frequent tradeoffs and rely on debt (moderate), or they are behind in their bills and have persistent budget shortfalls (severe).
### Risk of Wall Street Recession vs Main Street Depression
While the past week's stronger than expected jobs report is welcome assurance that the *risk of recession* is moderating, it does not improve the economic challenges faced by increasing numbers of Americans.
US total household [debt currently sits at $18.8 Trillion](https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2026/20260811?ref=s3t.org) \- note that this is $3T higher than [total income of US individuals at $15.2T](https://apps.bea.gov/scb/issues/2025/11-november/1125-nea-annual-update.htm?ref=s3t.org). In other words, American households collectively owe roughly **$1.24 for every $1 of annual household income.**
At this point[nearly 60% of U.S. households are unable to afford a $300K home](https://www.nahb.org/blog/2025/03/priced-out-affordability-pyramid?ref=s3t.org). This is significantly lower than the median home price which is currently pegged at $459,826.
[Courtesy of NAHB](https://www.nahb.org/blog/2025/03/priced-out-affordability-pyramid?ref=s3t.org)
In addition, MLS and Redfin data show that the number of home buyers has actually been declining since 2013 - aside from a bounce in 2021-2022\. Increasing numbers of sellers cannot find buyers.
To put all of this in perspective, consider the imbalance in spending power - and how it is set to progress over the foreseeable horizon. The chart below shows consumer spending, categorized by core consumers vs affluent consumers.
Courtesy of the [Visual Capitalist](https://www.voronoiapp.com/demographics/Asia-overtakes-North-America-on-total-spending-by-2036-and-still-trails-on-affluence-8976?ref=s3t.org)
The chart shows just how much of consumer spending now depends on a relatively small population of consumers. 83% of consumer spending comes from affluent consumers. Note that between now and 2036 that ratio will only worsen: 87% of spend will be from affluent consumers.
💡
Full Access Members: See the [S3T Economic Dashboard](https://www.s3t.org/dashboard/) for the Top 500+ US & International real-time economic indicators.
### AI drives another shift: the education premium falls (again)
A growing chorus is noticing that [the college degree premium is falling](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract%5Fid=7364838&ref=s3t.org) consistently year after year now. Stepping back to look thru a wider lens - the crisis has been building for some time now. As noted in this recommended read: [The multiversity is finished](https://www.persuasion.community/p/the-multiversity-is-finished?ref=s3t.org), the definition of what makes a good education is evolving, perhaps faster than academia can process.
The very clear historic pattern shared in the first link above:
- In a given period of time, there is a dominant technology construct (the way work gets done)
- This dominant technology construct requires a specific kind of skill and education.
- Those who have that education, are differentiated from those who don't, and enjoy a wage premium.
- This continues until the majority of the population have that level of education. After that, the wage premium erodes.
We are now entering a era with a new and very different technology construct - driven by AI. In this era, workers will be doing work very differently. They will be interacting with or designing artificial intelligence driven automation tools or agents to get the work done. These agents will become more and more capable. with the rogue agents that can’t seem to get control over
*If you have a group of AI Agents working at your direction - what is the optimal *management science* for getting the most value from them?*
There is a crucial opportunity here for talent teams and educational institutions to rethink both education and work.
---
**Keep learning with S3T Playbooks**
- [Spend Wisely in a Hype-Driven World](https://www.s3t.org/spendwisely/)
- [Gaining Buy-in for Data Modernization](https://www.s3t.org/s3t-playbook-data-modernization/)
- [Flipping the Script: Understanding and Changing Internal & Macro Narratives](https://www.s3t.org/changing-internal-and-macro-narratives/)
- [Shift to effective gatekeeping in the age of generative AI](https://www.s3t.org/genai-supervisory-workloads/)
- [How to Stop Zombie Projects from Sapping your Focus and Resources](https://www.s3t.org/stop-zombie-projects/)
- [Harmonize Different Kinds of Expertise to Achieve Success](https://www.s3t.org/harmonize-expertise/)
- [Addressing issues related to uneven accountability](https://www.s3t.org/disabling-accountability-shields/)
- [Validating AI use cases](https://www.s3t.org/validating-ai-use-cases/)
- [6 Proven Ways to Resolve Conflicts](https://www.s3t.org/6-ways-to-resolve-conflicts/)
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
*(c) 2026 All Rights Reserved. No part of this may be copied or shared without permission.*
### NVIDIA & Hugging Face - the implications of Open Source models
URL: https://www.s3t.org/nvidia-hugging-face-the-implications-of-open-source-models/
Last updated: 2026-09-04T21:14:25.000Z
*You thought you knew Open Source models...time to take a closer look...*
S3T PodCast Sept 4 2026
0:00
/1062.6089795918367
1×
[Hugging Face](https://huggingface.co/?ref=s3t.org) has become the top place to discover open AI models, and the top platform for distributing them. So when thinking about the implications of NVIDIA's acquisition of Hugging Face, realize NVIDIA isn't just buying a platform...they're buying an *ecosystem*:
- 18 million developers
- 3 million models
- 1 million datasets
- 1 million applications
- 200,00 enterprise users
NVIDIA is making a $12.9B bet that Open Source AI models will become a large and permanent layer in the AI economy. [In his blog post](https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/nvidia-to-acquire-hugging-face/?ref=s3t.org), Jensen Huang promised that Hugging Face will remain open for the entire AI economy, and that NVIDIA compute will not be required to build on or deploy through Hugging Face.
Implications for investors & corporate decision makers
- The cost war is starting to get serious, especially if firms start connecting open source models to AI routers to route workloads to lower cost models, or to provide failover protections against "puppet master risks" (where a compromised frontier model forces multiple companies to halt dependent operations).
- Open Source models are not just coming from China - US open source is growing too.
- NVIDIA isn't betting that one open model will beat OpenAI. It's betting that an enormous competitive market of open models will drive AI usage. NVIDIA wants to own the infrastructure and developer ecosystem underneath that market.
Take together this gives leadership teams, some crucial "stop" and "start" imperatives:
**Stop**
- Framing AI strategy as "OpenAI vs. Anthropic vs. Gemini."
- Stop thinking in terms of choosing a 1-3 AI models
**Start**
- Defining a model strategy that includes both open and closed models.
- Designing for a world of many models, rapidly falling inference costs, increasing specialization, and much greater model portability.
At this point, may enterprise decision makers are used to thinking about AI as either Anthropic or OpenAI. The Open Model space is probably bigger and more diverse than you realize. Highly Recommended Read: [Current State of Open Models: Summer 2026 Observations](https://huggingface.co/blog/state-of-open-models-summer-2026?ref=s3t.org)
---
## Up a Level
### Macro: AI moved further into macro policy and power economics
- In his first [Federal Reserve Jackson Hole remarks](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/warsh20260828a.htm) as Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh made it clear that the AI investment cycle—and its uncertain effects on productivity, labor, and markets—is now part of the Fed’s monetary-policy calculus. WEF's latest energy round-up points to fast-rising AI power demand and data-center pressure on grid construction ([WEF energy round-up](https://www.weforum.org/stories/energy-transition/record-us-power-use-as-ai-surges-and-more-top-energy-stories/?ref=s3t.org)).
- **AI becomes a monetary-policy variable.** AI is now tied to capex, productivity uncertainty, labor demand, inflation pressure, semiconductor exports, power demand, and market internals.
- AI strategy now has to answer two questions at once: where will productivity gains show up, and who pays for the physical capacity required before they arrive?
- Capital is still interested but more careful: Haver sees resilient global growth and improving flash PMIs alongside restless long-term yields and strong South Korean semiconductor exports ([Haver](https://www.haver.com/articles/charts-of-the-week-resilient-growth-restless-yields?ref=s3t.org)). EPFR reported that AI-linked stocks lost roughly $1 trillion in market value during the third week of August, even as AI funds extended their inflow streak ([EPFR](https://epfr.com/insights/global-navigator/fears-ai-bubble-fake-news/?ref=s3t.org)).
- Investors have not abandoned the AI cycle, but capital is becoming more sensitive to duration, concentration, power costs, policy rates, and proof of economic return.
### Updated macro narratives: What to expect over the next 5 years:
- Expect growth planning to be less about whether the economy is expanding and more about whether income, confidence, savings, local labor, import exposure, and financing costs still fit together for the customer segment that matters.
- Expect AI infrastructure to be judged as macro infrastructure: power, chips, debt, productivity, rate sensitivity, cyber resilience, and workforce capability will matter alongside model performance (Remember the ROI cycle is going to extend well into the next 5 years and beyond).
- Expect capital to remain interested in AI and infrastructure, but to demand clearer evidence of payback under higher long-term yields, concentrated market exposure, and rising physical-capacity costs. This will likely also apply to AI derivative industries that build on top of the foundational layer being built out now.
- "Trusted automation" expect there to be required controls not only around what AI can do, but deliberate **protection of human judgment,** including learning pathways, and line of sight needed to know whether the right things are happening. Human accountability can't be subtracted from the equation, but it can be narrowed to a point of meaninglessness: where individuals lacking the ability to provide meaningful scrutiny rubber stamp AI actions or decisions without understanding the implications.
---
## AI Impacts to Talent: learning paths & the development of judgement
For change leaders one realization hits home: In the future, the world will need *more* good judgement not less. And we'll need the ability to apply it meaningfully in an accelerated world.
Concerns have already surface about the hollowing out of career paths for younger workers. We need to look at the implications of this for talent development: **turning all work into prompting exercises might not make for the best learning path to good judgement.**
If career work becomes a long series of prompts texted into an all wise vending machine, it risks **turning talent into consumption** \- and if we’re not careful we'll end up with increasingly less capable workers.
Automation can raise output while eroding the learning paths that create judgment. And this will lead to *lapses in judgement at scale.*
### Thought exercise to get your team in the right mindset:
Pick one investment, product idea, vendor proposal, partnership, or hiring plan and test it against five questions:
- Does the plan rely on current spending or future confidence?
- Which imports, inventories, or capital goods create timing risk?
- Which power, grid, chip, or cybersecurity dependency could delay scaling?
- What would higher long-term yields do to the payback case?
- Which human skills or review paths must be preserved as automation expands?
### Talent strategy teams and hiring managers should zoom in on understanding these kinds of skills:
- Segment-level demand and savings analysis
- Import and inventory-quality reading
- Capital-cost and duration-risk modeling
- Utility-rate and power-capacity literacy
- AI productivity measurement
- Cyber resilience and dependency mapping
- Human judgment and early-career leaning paths - what human capabilities must be preserved (conscience, judgement, prioritization, contextual awareness, dot-connecting etc) **and how will we help younger generations of workers develop and preserve these capabilities?**
All in all some pretty sober questions reflect on this Labor Day weekend. Hope you get some time to relax with friends and family,
Thank you for reading & sharing S3T,
Ralph
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
*(c) 2026 All Rights Reserved. No part of this may be copied or shared without permission.*
##
### MCP for the real world, More investment needed not less, Emerging new discipline...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/mcp-for-the-real-world-more-investment-needed-not-less-emerging-new-discipline/
Last updated: 2026-08-29T17:15:47.000Z
S3T PodCast Aug 29
0:00
/1129.482448979592
1×
**Anthropic's new Model Hardware Standard (MCP for the real world) is one more indication: We are entering a new era where**[ **the need for investments - large scale investments - is *increasin***](https://www.haver.com/articles/the-contest-for-capital?ref=s3t.org)***g*:**
- AI and energy grid buildouts
- Climate resiliency infrastructure (including recovery from climate events)
- Marked increases in defense spending worldwide,
- Aging populations that create gaps in the workforce and overload in healthcare
- Increased requirements for *upgrading or migrating systems* \- to take advantage of new capabilities (Agentic AI, **Model Hardware Standard**), or to protect against new threats (Rogue AI agents, Post Quantum Security).
All drive the need for - not just increased *spend* \- but increased *investment* in order to proactively build *foundational* capabilities and infrastructure to support these needs.
Even if the capital investment is secured, there is also the risk that it won't get spent in a timely manner. Exhibit A: the ["logjam" in AI capital spending](https://www.exponentialview.co/p/ai-capex-deployment-gap?ref=s3t.org), as Azhar notes. There is a **rising wait time for capital dollars to actually get spent** \- as construction queues and waits for energy access increase. At stake is a collection of different kinds of investment, including debt levels that sharply increased after 2025\.
### This is the cumulative effect of accelerated innovation **in both finance and technology**
We are already familiar with what is happening in AI. But the rapid evolution in AI is also driving new problems and solutions in finance.
- Problems: The new reality of rogue AI Agents is prompting [Cyber Insurers to update their policies and the conditions under which they will pay claims](https://www.claimsjournal.com/news/national/2026/08/28/339830.htm?ref=s3t.org). Expect insurers to emerge as a new form of de-facto regulators...no compliance, no coverage. Companies adopting AI need to make sure they don't inadvertently innovate their way into risk territory that their insurers refuse to cover.
- Solutions: In finance for example [Coinbase and Better have partnered to create crypto-backed mortgages](https://help.coinbase.com/en/coinbase/mortgages/crypto-backed-mortgages?ref=s3t.org). The working mechanics of this - two loans, one payment - have broader implications for debt and risk transfer.
This will create a volatile mix of different kinds of risks - higher investment needs, new societal and environmental challenges, new technology buildouts and new financial mechanisms supporting them.
### Must go faster......can't
There's something else: the conflict between the need to move faster, but the inability to move faster in the physical and infrastructure and governance layers of the world.
In the past, digital innovation happened with relatively little friction because we were mostly figuring out more efficient ways to move bits and bytes around. Sure maybe it required us to build data centers and lay fiber. But that's nothing compared to the massive physical infrastructure upgrades that innovation is driving today. And **the layers of the broader macroeconomy are just not ready to move at this kind of speed.**
This is why it is crucial to monitor not just headlines and tech announcements but *all of the specific layers of the big picture* \- starting with the real world physical layer with its scarcity and constraints, then examine the implications of that to capital flows, economics, government policy and societal impacts so we can manage our exposure to these different layers, and increase our chances of discovering crucial opportunities.
S3T Members will recognize immediately that I'm talking of course about the [S3T Strategic Awareness Dashboard](https://www.s3t.org/5layers/), which we update each week with the latest early signals from each of the 5 Layers of Strategic Awareness.
### Strategic Awareness Dashboard: Watch local & regional conditions vs national.
There has been a long trend of disparity across different US cities, when you compare average work week vs average wage by job titles. *In some cities you will work longer hours and make less.* In others it's more balanced.
This local variation is starting to become impactful beyond individual jobs.
As noted in the latest [S3T Strategic Awareness Dashboard](https://www.s3t.org/5layers/): Over the next five years, expect labor and demand strategy to become local-first: regional employment, youth pathways, skill availability, wages, housing costs, and customer segment will matter more than the national headline economic figures.
Early signals of big change emerge from 5 Layers:
- Layer 1: Physical
- Layer 2: Economic
- Layer 3: Capital
- Layer 4: Political
- Layer 5: Societal
These layers are arranged in order of structural constraint:
- Each layer tends to *constrain* the layers below it.
- Signals often appear in higher layers first.
- Major tipping points occur when constraints propagate across layers.
Related sets of signals are usually spread across multiple layers. Noticing connections between signals in different layers enables more complete understanding of the timing and impacts of oncoming change, threats and opportunities.
If you want to stay ahead in your career, your investments, and decisions, then this is the discipline for you. This is the highest leverage way that you can spend your focus and energy on learning and building the right skills. This discipline is called change leadership. It's a set of skills that previously have not been taught together, but now need to be.
Tech finance relationships, foresight, execution, skills, collaborative, cross, disciplinary execution.
### Where new possibilities emerge:
Innovations that impact the scarcity at the physical layer have the potential to drive huge shifts at the other layers. For example:
- AI is making fossil based energy more scarce, but green energy innovation that taps into abundant energy sources can change the equation.
- The same can be said for innovation that turns deprecated urban spaces, discarded materials and pollutants into mineable resources. Or discovers [fungi that can clean up plastic and sunscreen pollution in ocean water](https://www.soest.hawaii.edu/soestwp/announce/news/fungi-degrade-plastic-sunscreen-vera-wang/?ref=s3t.org).
This week's introduction of Anthropic's Model Hardware Standard (MHS) is another example of an innovation that will change physical and economic possibilities. Anthropic's MHS solves an important bottleneck that has made it difficult and expensive to create coordinated networks of physical devices that follow instructions from any single centralized source let along AI agents.
### Claude's Model Hardware Standard: MCP for the real world
This week Anthropic introduced the Model Hardware Standard (MHS), a shared specification that allows AI agents to operate *physical devices* (cameras, microscopes, robotic arms, conveyers, etc) in a lab or factory and enable communication and reasoning between those devices.
Think of this as the physical world counterpart to Model Context Protocol (MCP):
- MCP provides standard protocol for connecting agents to data and APIs
- MHS provides standard protocol for connecting agents *to physical devices.*
The standard is being piloted with a limited set of robotics labs and manufacturers.
### How MHS solves the integration bottleneck for physical devices
Before MHS, getting different physical devices to work together (for example in a robotic or complex system) required custom software integrations to be created between each individual device or system:
[Courtesy of Anthropic](https://www.anthropic.com/news/model-hardware-standard-research-preview?ref=s3t.org)
Now, any device that is MHS compatible could be connected to and orchestrated by an AI Agent. The protocol enables one or more agents to orchestrate coordinated actions across the set of devices:
[Courtesy of Anthropic](https://www.anthropic.com/news/model-hardware-standard-research-preview?ref=s3t.org)
Once implemented at sufficient scale, this removes months of bespoke hardware integration work from the typical robotic system project.
### Tentative outlook
How soon might MHS force hardware manufacturers to pivot from selling isolated physical machinery to shipping API-first, MHS-compliant devices or risk rapid market obsolescence?
[Notes from Kingly](https://kingy.ai/blog/anthropic-model-hardware-standard-mhs/?ref=s3t.org) and other sources suggest it will be 3-4 years before widespread Model Hardware Standard (MHS) adoption creates a sharp competitive and operational divide.
For enterprise customers—factories and research labs—this transition requires auditing existing legacy assets to establish deterministic safety boundaries and identify equipment needing API wrappers or physical retrofits.
Over the next four years, will we see buyers increasingly phase out closed, proprietary hardware in favor of "MHS-Ready" infrastructure? We shall see.
Investor signals I will be watching:
- MHS vs incumbent robotics protocols: which will win out? MHS could be complementary to some protocols but directly compete with others.
- Manufacturing sectors: which ones are positioned to quickly adopt MHS vs which ones will require longer timeframes for retooling?
We will do a deeper dive on this in a future segment. But for now, watch the protocols and the adoption rates in manufacturing.
---
## Continue Your Learning
### Dig into the [S3T Strategic Awareness Dashboard](https://www.s3t.org/5layers/)
*The S3T 5 Layers of Strategic Awareness framework provides a forward-looking view of early signals shaping technology, markets, capital allocation, governance and public trust.*
### Change Leadership Learning Series
*A new discipline is emerging - and you can become excellent at it. If you do, you're going to be able to further your work and your life in a very big way.*
Technology and finance are evolving so rapidly they force corresponding changes in governance, capital flows, economic performance, and society in general, before they have developed usable playbooks and responses to the changes. they're also consuming physical resources in order to drive this change.
[Starting Learning about Change Leadership today](https://www.s3t.org/what-is-change-leadership/)
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
*(c) 2026 All Rights Reserved. No part of this may be copied or shared without permission.*
### High Value vs Low Value Work
URL: https://www.s3t.org/aug-21-high-value-vs-low-value-work/
Last updated: 2026-09-12T17:41:45.000Z
*More Work—or More of the Right Work? AI Can't make the choice for you...*
High Value Vs Low Value Work
0:00
/1196.355918367347
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Over and over, I talk with people who feel *swamped*. They're working at the limit of their capacity, their to-do lists keep growing, and it seems to increasingly common these days no matter what industry you are in. And this is supposedly the age of AI where agents are doing all the work!
And there's something else: privately, people frustrated that they can't get more done. They feel like they should be doing more.
I've been there too. Maybe you're there right now.
So let's talk. And, btw...this isn't an argument for pushing harder. Sometimes people really are working at an unsustainable level, and the answer is to reduce the load—not find another productivity trick.
But there's another possibility worth getting curious about:
**Maybe the problem isn't how much work you're doing. Maybe it's the value of the work that is consuming your limited capacity.**
Instead of asking, *How can I get more done?*, try asking:
**How can I get more of the *right things* done?**
This will help you open up a very different conversation. A conversation about high value work vs low value work. What are those highest impact tasks I should be focused on, that will unlock the most value. Now, most people on some level understand they should - you know - work smarter not harder. But when you ask people how to do that, it gets fuzzy. So I want to share a simple exercise that will help you analyze more objectively how to focus on the higher value work.
### The skyscraper and the small box
Here's an exercise we use in our Change Leadership learning: Take a sheet of paper and draw a tall rectangle, like a skyscraper.
This tall rectangle represents **all the work you could possibly do today or this week**: emails, meetings, projects, problems, ideas, customer requests, administrative tasks, things other people want, and things you've decided you ought to do.
Keep in mind there's *always more work than you can possibly complete*.
Now draw a much smaller box beside it. That box represents **the time, attention and energy you actually have available.**
That little box is a reminder of how constrained our focus and energy is. You don't have endless amounts of either.
You cannot fit the skyscraper into the little box.
So the challenge isn't figuring out how to cram everything in. It's deciding **which parts of the skyscraper deserve access to your little box.**
## Not all work has equal value
Imagine the skyscraper arranged vertically by value.
At the very top is your highest-value work: the things that, if done well, could have the greatest impact.
Perhaps you solve a problem that's blocking ten other people. You talk with a customer and discover that an assumption underlying a major investment is wrong. You make a decision that opens an important opportunity. You create something once that hundreds of people can subsequently use.
This is the territory of:
**Right work. Right person. Right time.**
As we move down the skyscraper, however, things start getting muddier.
Something might be the **right work but the wrong person**. It needs doing, but someone else could do it better—or doing it yourself prevents you from doing something only you can do.
Something else might be the **right work but the wrong time**. It's a perfectly good idea six months from now, but premature today.
And eventually we reach the bottom:
**Wrong work.** The work NOBODY should be doing. Not you, not anyone!
The report nobody uses. The meeting nobody needs. The feature customers don't care about. The bureaucratic process that exists because it has always existed.
These things consume real human attention while creating little or no value.
## Try the disappearance test
Here's one of my favorite ways to investigate questionable work:
**If I decided not to do this, who would scream?**
Or, for a product or service:
**If we turned this off tomorrow, who would notice—and how long would it take them to tell us?**
Don't assume you know the answer.
If you're uncertain, go find out.
That's part of the exercise. Talk with the supposed customer. Ask the person who requested the report what decision it informs. Find out who's actually using the feature.
You might discover something is extremely important.
You might also discover that everyone thought somebody else wanted it.
For important tasks, try writing down:
**Task → Customer → Outcome → Timing → Next Door**
Who actually wants this? Is it self-assigned or externally required? What outcome changes because I do it? When is it really needed? And **what door does completing it open?**
That last question is particularly useful.
A 20-minute conversation that prevents three months of unnecessary work may be enormously valuable even though you've produced no tangible "deliverable."
##
## High-value work isn't the whole equation
There's another dimension we often overlook. Suppose you've identified genuinely valuable work. How efficiently can you perform it? Well, here's a secret:
*The amount of time it takes a person to do a given task is surprisingly elastic.*
It depends partly on **top-of-mind expertise**. Someone who has recently and repeatedly performed a task may accomplish in 30 minutes what takes someone else three hours.
It depends on **focus**. Interruptions and context switching consume capacity.
It depends on **mindset**. If you're convinced something is pointless, stupid or unnecessary, notice how difficult it becomes to engage with it—particularly when learning is involved.
Fear, uncertainty, resentment and procrastination can similarly make a relatively straightforward task consume extraordinary amounts of time.
And then there's **energy**.
Sometimes when we're overwhelmed, exercise is one of the first things we eliminate: *I have too much to do today to work out.*
Consider reversing that logic:
**I have so much important work to do today that I need the energy and mental clarity the workout helps me create.**
Your objective isn't maximizing the number of hours spent working. It's maximizing the value created from your available capacity.
## 3 dimensions of high-value work
This gives us a more useful way of thinking about effectiveness.
1. **High-value work:** Am I choosing activities that materially improve outcomes?
2. **High-value methods:** Am I doing that work in ways that reduce wasted effort, unnecessary iteration and distraction?
3. **High-value enablement:** Does my work make other people more effective too?
That third category can create *extraordinary* leverage. Solving a problem for yourself creates value once. Removing a barrier affecting 20 people multiplies it.
Creating a tool, process, insight or capability that enables hundreds of people to perform better can multiply it again.
Now, this also reveals an important trap:
**You can be doing high-value work using low-value methods.**
A strategically important project can still be buried under unnecessary meetings, duplicated effort, poor communication and endless rework. Likewise, you can become *extraordinarily efficient at low-value work.*
Neither is the goal.
## Get curious about your own work
This week, don't immediately try to change everything. Just start *investigating*.
Look at your calendar and to-do list and start asking:
- What outcome changes if I do this?
- Who is the customer?
- What happens if I don't do it?
- Does this require me—or could I delegate, partner or automate?
- Is this the right work at the wrong time?
- What door does this open?
Am I applying 100% effort to something that only needs 70%? What am I doing repeatedly that could be eliminated altogether?
And perhaps most importantly:
**What could I be doing with this same hour that would create substantially more value?**
The goal isn't squeezing more work out of ourselves.
I used to work and think in a way that basically amounted to me celebrating and being proud of being exhausted. I work so hard! Right? But that's not the right mindset. It isn't about celebrating exhaustion. Not good for your health or your relationships.
And it isn't getting better at jamming through an ever-expanding to-do list. (More focused! More disciplined!)
The skyscraper will always be bigger than the little box.
The skill is learning to recognize which work belongs near the top—and becoming increasingly deliberate about giving **that work** your scarce time, attention and energy.
**Don't just ask: How do I get more done?**
Ask the much more valuable question:
**How do I get more of the *right things* done?**
Ralph
PS. Don't forget to check out the latest [Capital Monitor](https://www.s3t.org/capital/)...
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### Aug 14 - What to aim for
URL: https://www.s3t.org/aug-14-what-to-aim-for/
Last updated: 2026-08-14T20:45:48.000Z
*Should you invest in learning about Change Leadership?*
S3T PodCast Aug 14 2026
0:00
/668.7869387755102
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I'm fascinated by the question of "What does trustworthy leadership look like here in the accelerating 21st century, *what is that counterintuitive set of skills, expertise, and tools that make leaders effective in times of change? ...and effective at leading change?*
So my goal is to learn about and curate these change leadership skills, tools and insights and look for like-minded leaders who also value them, and find ways to help them. That is the premise of the S3T subscription and newsletter.
You may be wondering - should I invest in learning about Change Leadership? How do I know if its right for me?
Change leadership learning is for you if:
- You're ready to be the kind of leader who shakes things up, not just keeps things the same.
- You want to help your organization or clients think and work smarter.
- You're eager to understand the big changes happening in the world, explain them clearly to others, and create strategies that outsmart conventional thinking.
- You're ready to push yourself to the next level.
## Why Change Leadership is the most important skillset of the 21st century
Why do we say change leadership is the most important skillset of the 21st century?
- **The world has accelerated** as Thomas Friedman pointed out in [*Thank You for Being Late*](https://www.thomaslfriedman.com/thank-you-for-being-late/?ref=s3t.org). New ideas and capabilities - new technologies, new platforms, new financial tools, new ideas for governance - are being unleashed at a faster rate than ever before - often with big unforeseen and unwanted side effects.
- **The stakes are higher than ever.** There are more people, more needs, bigger risks, often with stricter less forgiving timelines - than ever.
- **There is too much intentional or misguided change:** change for greed's sake, or change driven by hype, or power struggles. This often results in change that has very negative impacts and unwanted side effects. Being passive and unengaged in this era of accelerating change runs the risk of allowing toxic and negative impacts to proliferate.
- **Organizational fluidity:** Leaders no longer lead static organizations with stable chains of command. Organizations are in constant flux. A new set of leadership competencies are needed.
### Change Leadership then vs now
100 years ago being a change leader, an inventor or innovator was considered rare...something that occurred randomly here or there in any given country or population.
It wasn't for everyone. Change leadership was something done only by a few atypical innovators and status-quo challengers like Harriet Tubman, Thomas Edison or Albert Einstein. Sure, *they’ll* bring big changes, but the rest of us will just keep our heads down and mind our own business.
That was the mindset for the 20th century and much of history. ***Today we are in a very different place.***
💡
***We can no longer afford to assume that change leadership is optional, or that it is just something that a few rare people do while the rest of us go on business as usual**
We can no longer afford to assume that change leadership is optional, or that it is just something that a few rare people do while the rest of us go on business as usual. That is no longer the right mindset. There is no business as usual. Truth be told it probably never was an accurate mindset. **Every person is born to have an impact and every person has the potential to have a great impact.**
Finding that change leadership opportunity that resonates with you - that mission you have, that gift that you can bring to make things better for others, is such an exciting opportunity. And its more crucial today than ever.
### Change leadership is *not* just for a few of us. It’s for all of us.
Given the challenges we face today, it’s all hands on deck. *Every person* needs to be a change leader: someone who is constantly learning and building their skills to drive *good change* \- the kind of intentional change that we actually want and need.
Not negative change, not careless change, and certainly not staying stuck in the status quo.
### We each have a choice to make
We can:
- Perpetuate the status quo OR
- Be part of unintentional or careless change that has unwanted side effects OR
- **Learn how to thoughtfully and effectively drive *positive beneficial change that lasts*, as depicted here:**
This is where all of us want to be focused. This is where good outcomes become possible.
This is also why S3T exists. S3T (pronounced "set" but just spelled differently) refers to this set of skills that comprise change leadership. We'll describe and give you ways to develop this crucial set of skills in the upcoming learning segments.
**S3T focuses on sharing 21st century leadership skills set in the context of emerging tech and the evolving economic landscape. This unusual combination of skills (not usually taught together) has become essential for the global and local challenges we face today.**
### You have a unique role to play
You have the potential and the ability to create lasting and very beneficial changes in the world.
There are change opportunities that *you* notice and urgently wish you could change. No one you know of may be thinking about it in the exact same way that you are. That's because you've been given a vantage point or set of experiences that **sensitized you to a specific issue**. Maybe something happened in your life that gave you awareness of some needed changes - and these have become very important to you.
It could be changes needed on an individual level, or changes within families, or communities. It might be a change that you recognize is needed in your team or your company or perhaps on a change needed on an industry level or macro, national or even a global level.
Whatever change you are motivated to desire and drive, you will can increase your chances of successfully enabling that change by committing to learning and building *change leadership skills*.
I invite you to visit the S3t.org website and click the change leadership link to learn more about the [change leadership learning series](https://www.s3t.org/change/).
Thank you again for investing in your change leadership skills. It matters.
Ralph
P.S. [Check out this page you are curious about what is available to S3T paid memberships](https://www.s3t.org/members).
And the latest Premium Briefing: [*The AI Puppetmaster Problem: the Frontier Model Risk No One is Talking About*](https://www.s3t.org/puppetmaster-problem-the-frontier-model-risk-no-one-is-talking-about/)
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### AGI & Trustworthy Leadership
URL: https://www.s3t.org/aug-7-agi-trustworthy-leadership/
Last updated: 2026-09-13T00:46:37.000Z
S3T PodCast Aug 7 2026
0:00
/642.0375510204082
1×
I'm fascinated by the question of "What does trustworthy leadership look like right now?" Here in the accelerating 21st century, *what is that counterintuitive set of skills, expertise, playbooks and tools that make leaders effective?*
What I notice is that this specific set is...
- different from the established business norms
- is not taught in a unified way - you get pieces of it here and there, but it is not taught as a unified curriculum
- does not come with a set of tools that support operating at the level of trusted leader.
So my goal has been to learn about and curate these skills, tools and insights and look for like-minded leaders who also value them. That is the premise of the S3T subscription and newsletter. [Check out this page you are curious about what is available to S3T paid memberships](https://www.s3t.org/members).
### Every where you look, you see deep hunger for trustworthy leadership.
I noticed it this week in this passage from the [Situational Awareness paper](https://situational-awareness.ai/?ref=s3t.org):
*“As a kid you have this glorified view of the world, that when things get real there are the heroic scientists, the uber-competent military men, *the calm leaders who are on it, who will save the day. It is not so.* The world is incredibly small; when the facade comes off, it’s usually just a few folks behind the scenes who are the live players, who are desperately trying to keep things from falling apart.”*
(emphasis mine)
These are the words of 20-something Leopold Aschenbrenner whose AI focused hedge fund (also named Situational Awareness) melted down last week and was rescued by Citadel, a larger hedge fund.
The business headlines fixated on how a young person like Aschenbrenner with no financial background was enabled to start and grow a hedge fund. (Short answer: some people will write a check to anyone who spent time at OpenAI.)
But what is not getting as much focus is the [Situational Awareness](https://situational-awareness.ai/?ref=s3t.org) paper Aschenbrenner wrote in 2024 - which was the genesis of the hedge fund. The entire paper is worth a read, but if you read nothing else, at least read the [Parting Thoughts](https://situational-awareness.ai/parting-thoughts/?ref=s3t.org) section.
The paper highlights the national security concerns as [China disrupts the frontier AI model space](https://www.interconnects.ai/p/kimi-k3-the-open-weights-escalation?ref=s3t.org), and contemplates the high stakes arms race for AI super intelligence.
China's models are leapfrogging - Courtesy of Interconnects
Aschenbrenner outlines the perils of super intelligence vs. super intelligence. And how hard it will be to control and contain super intelligence going forward.
### What do super intelligent AI cage matches look like? - we are about to find out - and the world is the cage.
First implementations are always flawed. Some of them have a very large blast radius. As the world does its first implementation of super intelligent AI, an analogy from the history of financial innovation is worth remembering:
The Black-Scholes formula is a groundbreaking innovation that underpins much of the world's quantitative finance today. Its creators Fischer Black, Myron Scholes and Robert Merton won the 1997 Nobel Prize in Economics.
But its first large scale implementation ended in the 1998 collapse of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM), a massive hedge fund. The culprit? A toxic mix of bad assumptions, blind faith in the financial formula, and failure to anticipate what could go wrong.
Where are the bad assumptions and blind faith in today's AI formula?
One assumption already getting overturned thanks to rogue AI tools "escaping" and wreaking havoc: the assumption that AI is a tool for hackers to create smarter viruses or malware. This reflects cybersecurity's narrow traditional focus on malicious actors armed with tools.
Photo by [Miguel Ángel Sanz](https://unsplash.com/@maswdl95?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### Today the problem is not that the virus is intelligent… it's that *intelligence is the virus*.
The threat is no longer a specific piece of "smart" software, but the risk that an omnipresent cognitive engine could drive an attack through thousands of different vectors.
Think about how many companies are making themselves reliant on a single AI puppet master:
- "wrapper startups" that wrap specific business functions around a frontier model,
- large enterprises refactoring themselves to be directed by those same frontier models
....so many companies and governments setting themselves up to be trojan horsed by super intelligent cyberthreats coming from a single compromised puppet master.
To illustrate this from a different angle:
In the 9/11 attacks, the hijackers took a common everyday item - passenger jets - and weaponized them. Perhaps they noticed how much airliners had in common with ICBMs: huge explosive payloads, high speeds and precise navigational abilities. And what was different: unlike ICBMs, airliners were allowed to travel freely inside US airspace.
As they executed their plan, every passenger jet in the sky became a potential attacker. The entire travel industry itself became **the threat that could not be contained** \- until the FAA grounded *all* air traffic. The entire ecosystem had to be shut down in order to contain and remove the threat.
This 9/11 shut-down scenario could play out again *but in a more potent way*. Think about the key difference between 9/11 airliner attacks vs the AI puppet master scenario becoming plausible today:
- In 9/11 only a few of the airliners were *actually* under the control of the hijackers
- In 2026, thousands of companies are delegating execution authority to 1-2 frontier models.
In this extreme concentration of dependency, if a single frontier model is compromised, containing the threat could require pulling the plug on the foundational components and the API layer - instantly halting operations across thousands of dependent enterprises.
Photo by [Richard Hedrick](https://unsplash.com/@fortuitousfoto?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### Intentional Beneficial Change
This is where the question of trustworthy leadership becomes urgent. Trustworthy leadership is not simply about moving fast toward whatever tech promises the newest advantages, or even knowing the right facts or answers.
Trustworthy leadership today is about leading well in times of change. And driving *intentional beneficial change* vs. change that burns money, extracts ROI from new rounds of creditors / investors and unleashes “innovations” riddled with unwanted side effects and risks.
Trustworthy leaders are the people willing to focus on developing their [change leadership skills](https://www.s3t.org/what-is-change-leadership/). Then using that set of skills as a compass and lens to think ahead, to see the whole system, see what innovation is useful, and build it thoughtfully. This means we notice and question our assumptions, understand where unhealthy dependencies are forming, and the most importantly: **take *proactive* responsibility for what could go wrong**. Craft the required resilience before it is fashionable, preserve and *improve* human judgment where others rush to diminish or automate it out of existence. These desperately needed leaders create the true conditions that allow people and institutions to adapt emerging tech and use it *constructively*.
In an age of extraordinary intelligence and accelerating change, trustworthy leadership is ultimately defined by something deeply human: humility, foresight, courage, and the commitment to protect the people and communities who - whether they realize it or not - may have placed their future in your hands.
Thank you again for forwarding the S3T newsletter to others, and inviting them to sign up! Thank you also for investing time in learning about change leadership. It matters.
Have a great weekend, and a great week ahead!
Ralph
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### 🌏 Midyear Geopolitical scan: The shifting definition of power
URL: https://www.s3t.org/midyear-geopolitical-scan-the-shifting-definition-of-power/
Last updated: 2026-08-01T12:38:27.000Z
*The most consequential geopolitical shifts rarely begin with dramatic announcements*
S3T PodCast Aug 1
0:00
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For those of you who may not know, the [S3T Strategic Awareness Engine (SAE) ](https://www.s3t.org/5layers/)is a platform that monitors early signals and indicators from hundreds of sources and then organizes them into 5 Layers:
Layer 1: Physical
Layer 2: Economic
Layer 3: Capital
Layer 4: Political
Layer 5: Societal
In the S3T Strategic Awareness model we tend to focus on the top layer that represents the operational realities and limited resources of the physical world.
Early signals telling us what will happen in the Economic, Capital, Political and Society layers almost always start in the Physical layer. These signals may be ignored or misread in the layers below - Capital, Economics, Politics and Society - at least until the inevitable consequences start to become obvious. This recurring cycle of unaware-->vaguely aware -->fully aware is what drives the bull and bear markets, corrections and bubbles. It can also take the form of ignorance-->refusal to acknowledge-->acceptance.
I saw this in the months playing up to the housing crisis in 2007-2008\. Data and indicators clearly spelled out *what* was going to happen and pretty accurately *when* it was going to happen and how long it would last. But I found that people who were exposed to this data and/or the concerns of a bubble market often just refused to see it. There was too much greed driven momentum, and seeing the obvious sometimes requires a level of independent thinking that most apparently don't possess. That was a powerful lesson for me: sometimes we really *can* see what’s coming - *we just don’t want to*.
So if we want to have a strategic advantage, we pay close attention to the signals coming from the Physical layer of the Strategic Awareness model. These signals include all the physics, math and scarcities of the physical world: air supply, water supply, gravity, distance, shipping routes, transportation speed, sources of energy, climate and weather drivers - to name just a few.
We tend to devote a lot of time to the interaction between Layer 1 (Physical) and Layers 2 and 3 (Capital and Economics) because scarcity impacts price and economic activity.
But this week - with the maritime escalations in the Middle East and the reviewed shipping/tariff friction - is a great time to look at the interaction **between the Physical layer and the Political layer** \- specifically how do governments read and respond to the realities in the Physical layer?
You could say Geopolitics is basically the study of how governments respond to scarcity.
A chief questions in geopolitics at a given point in time:
- Which nations will have the best built in advantages vs. which ones will have to work harder to maintain any sort of parity
- Which nations are behaving in ways that *undermine* their own advantages? Which ones are *growing* their advantages?
It boils down to *which Governments are doing the better job of reading the signals in the Physical layer?*
### This week we released the [S3T 2026 Midyear Geopolitical Scan](https://www.s3t.org/geoscan/) for paying members.
Once or twice a year its important to take time to examine the "large techtonic plates" of geopolitics because while they may be moving in less than obvious ways, they are definitely reshaping the world we will live in. This was a lot of fun to develop and examines three connected questions:
1. **What gives nations real strategic power here in the the 21st century?**
2. **How is China building influence across the entire technology stack?**
3. **Where might today’s most serious constraints become tomorrow’s greatest opportunities?**
Together, the three parts offer a broader way to understand the strategic landscape.
### The most consequential geopolitical shifts don't always begin with dramatic announcements
One shift underway for a while now relates to the world's **working definition of what global power actually is.** In the past we have defined it in terms of military might and deterrence: The ability to give everyone the impression that they don't want to go to war with you. Here in the 21st century the domination model runs afoul of new realities:
- Smaller nations and non-state actors armed with modern technology can create fear and chaos that forces larger nations to spend beyond their means.
- Smaller more focused powers can create the rapid kind of innovation that Ukraine executed in its highly effective drone industry - and stall the momentum of larger more heavily armed opponents.
In place of the domination model, a new definition of power seems to be forming, based on the calculus that **the most useful form of power is not being dominant but rather being *indispensable*.**
It is fascinating to notice which countries seem to get this, and which ones do not.
To be clear this is not saying that some countries are perfect or doing everything right. **All countries make mistakes** \- even big ones- but it’s useful to notice which direction their trial and error is headed. Different countries have different margins for error or “mistake budgets” - how many errors you can make without seriously damaging your advantages and position.
Some are patiently building future advantages for themselves by shifting to more abundant forms of energy and continuously building infrastructure and alliances. Some are squandering their “mistake budget” on less intelligent aims.
💡
Get your full access to the ****2026 Geopolitical Scan** plus all of the S3T Playbooks and Premium Content: [Go here to sign up now](https://www.s3t.org/change-leadership-30-day-free-trial) and get your first month free!
Thank you for reading and for continuing to explore these questions together. Hope you have a restorative and enjoyable weekend and a great week ahead!
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### July 24 - Everyone wants to build the future. Who wants to maintain it?
URL: https://www.s3t.org/july-24-everyone-wants-to-build-the-future-who-wants-to-maintain-it/
Last updated: 2026-07-25T02:57:51.000Z
*The central strategic risk of the next decade - and the opportunity window for acquiring the talent to mitigate that risk.*
S3T PodCast July 24 2026
0:00
/937.7697959183673
1×
For years, we have celebrated the *builders* of the next breakthrough. AI models, cloud platforms, agents, all that. But underneath, there’s an overlooked trend. We are losing maintainers of the foundation. Critical software, often held together by a handful of people, is quietly aging. AI can write code, but can it replace the institutional memory and care that keeps our systems alive?
The world runs on software. But to keep running, that software needs layers of dependencies to keep functioning. Not very many people understand those layers. Each year fewer have the expertise to keep it running. And it's just not exciting and cool enough to get much attention in boardroom budget discussions.
**Everyone wants to build the future. Almost no one wants to maintain it.**
This may well be the central strategic risk of the next decade. And a key opportunity for smart founders and talent focused companies.
### The software beneath the software—and why AI will not magically take care of it
For years, business leaders have been told that software is eating the world.
What they have not always been told is that much of the software doing the eating rests on layers of older, less visible software—encryption libraries, compatibility tools, schedulers, editors, build systems, operating-system packages and protocols.
Some of these projects are maintained by large, well-organized communities. Others depend on a remarkably small group of people. Sometimes, one person.
This arrangement has existed for decades. But emerging conditions and new risks may force change:
- AI is increasing the speed at which vulnerabilities can be found and exploited. Autonomous systems are becoming more capable of pursuing goals in ways their operators did not anticipate.
- Quantum computing is creating the need to replace some of the cryptography embedded deep inside the digital economy.
- Many of the unsung maintainers of today's software and systems are retiring, moving on to other things.
At precisely this moment, many leadership teams are doubling down on a bet that software engineers are becoming expendable. This may prove to be one of the more expensive strategic misunderstandings of the AI era.
> **AI can generate code. That does not mean it can assume responsibility for the accumulated software infrastructure on which modern civilization depends.**
This weeks' Executive Explainer [*Think AI will replace developers? Why smart firms are hiring not cutting tech talent*](https://www.s3t.org/ai-talent-window/) provides deeper background on this issue, and explains why smart firms see this as the best time to hire top engineering talent not cut it. The piece also provides a fascinating historical tour of real world examples where crucial systems were impacted by dependencies on smaller teams or individuals.
## Fragile foundations
The Heartbleed vulnerability was and remains one of the strongest examples of immense mission critical operations running on fragile foundations.
OpenSSL is an open-source cryptographic library used to secure communications across websites, email systems, applications, servers and networking infrastructure.
In 2014, the Heartbleed vulnerability revealed that certain versions of OpenSSL could allow attackers to read sensitive information from a system’s memory—including credentials, communications and cryptographic keys. The vulnerability affected a foundational component of internet security and could be exploited without leaving an obvious trace. ([Heartbleed](https://www.heartbleed.com/?utm%5Fsource=chatgpt.com))
Enterprise leaders were shocked that such a serious bug existed. They were more shocked when they discovered how little institutional support surrounded this software on which so much commercial activity depended.
The incident helped catalyze the Linux Foundation’s Core Infrastructure Initiative, through which technology companies began funding security audits, developers and open-source projects considered essential to global infrastructure. The initiative was explicitly created in response to Heartbleed and the realization that critical projects were operating without resources proportionate to their importance. ([Linux Foundation](https://www.linuxfoundation.org/press/press-release/linux-foundations-core-infrastructure-initiative-launches-new-census-project?utm%5Fsource=chatgpt.com))
> **The world had built enormous economic systems on software that almost nobody in the executive suite understood, funded or took responsibility for maintaining.**
### Debian: one counterexample worth studying
Ian Murdock, who founded Debian in 1993, offers an example of how to do things right. By the time Murdock died in 2015, Debian had long since become a broad, developer-governed community. Its history describes a worldwide volunteer project, supported by defined governance, package-maintenance processes and nonprofit infrastructure. ([Debian](https://www.debian.org/doc/manuals/project-history/project-history.en.txt?utm%5Fsource=chatgpt.com))
Debian is great example of how open-source infrastructure can outlive its founder when governance, contribution practices, institutional identity and succession are deliberately built into the project.
## New risks
Emerging conditions and new risks are putting critical pressure on the stability of the world's current software enterprises. This will force companies to scrutinize the software components that their mission critical systems depend on, and make sure they retain technical talent capable of providing this scrutiny and resolving the risks and issues they find. A few of the key risks are summarized below. For a deeper dive see the S3T Executive Explainer [*Think AI will replace developers? Why smart firms are hiring not cutting tech talent*](https://www.s3t.org/ai-talent-window/).
### AI is increasing offensive cyber capability
AI systems are becoming better at identifying vulnerabilities, chaining exploits and carrying out multistep technical operations. This week, that risk became much less theoretical with the OpenAI Hugging face hack.
During an internal cybersecurity evaluation, OpenAI models were prompted to pursue complex exploitation tasks. The normal production classifiers intended to stop high-risk cyber activity were deliberately disabled so researchers could test the models’ maximum capabilities.
The models then found and exploited a previously unknown vulnerability in OpenAI’s test infrastructure, obtained open-internet access, escalated privileges and reached Hugging Face’s production systems. OpenAI characterized the event as an “unprecedented cyber incident.” Hugging Face detected and contained the activity. ([OpenAI](https://openai.com/index/hugging-face-model-evaluation-security-incident/?ref=s3t.org))
### Maintainers will face more pressure, not less
AI will help defenders find vulnerabilities. It will also help researchers, criminals and automated systems generate more reports, probe more packages and test more possible attack paths. That creates a workload problem.
An exhausted maintainer receiving thousands of AI-generated findings still has to determine which reports are valid, reproduce the problem, understand the consequences, write a safe patch, test it against downstream systems and coordinate a release.
AI can assist with those activities, but it cannot assume accountability for them.
The Open Source Security Foundation recently raised additional funding specifically to help overworked maintainers deal with the increased volume of AI-generated security reports. That is an early indication of where the pressure is heading. ([OpenSSF](https://openssf.org/newsletter/2026/03/26/openssf-newsletter-march-2026/?utm%5Fsource=chatgpt.com))
### Quantum migration is approaching
The quantum-computing threat is often presented as though it will arrive on one dramatic morning when a giant machine suddenly breaks the internet.
The more practical danger is the migration.
NIST has already finalized its first major post-quantum cryptography standards and has encouraged organizations to begin transitioning. Its current planning anticipates deprecating and eventually removing quantum-vulnerable algorithms from federal standards by 2035, with high-risk systems moving earlier. ([NIST](https://www.nist.gov/news-events/news/2024/08/nist-releases-first-3-finalized-post-quantum-encryption-standards?utm%5Fsource=chatgpt.com))
That means companies will have to locate cryptography embedded across applications, devices, networks, identity systems, databases, vendor products and archives. Someone will have to understand where those systems are, how they interact and what will break when the cryptography changes.
That someone will not be a chatbot operating without experienced engineers.
## The fashionable mistake: replacing developers with AI
Companies have recently found it fashionable to announce that AI will allow them to operate with fewer developers.
AI can automate routine coding, improve documentation, generate tests, translate between languages and help teams understand unfamiliar systems.
But software engineering is more than the production of code. It includes architecture, integration, testing, maintenance, security, incident response, prioritization, negotiation with users, understanding undocumented behavior and deciding which apparent improvement is too dangerous to deploy.
- The more AI-generated code companies introduce, the more they will need people capable of evaluating and supporting what the AI produced.
- The more autonomous agents companies deploy, the more they will need engineers who understand permissions, containment, monitoring and failure modes.
- The more sophisticated AI-enabled attackers become, the more they will need security engineers who can think beyond known attack patterns.
- And the closer quantum migration gets, the more they will need people who understand the technology several layers beneath the user interface.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics still projects software-developer employment to grow approximately 16% between 2024 and 2034\. It projects employment for information-security analysts to grow 29%, partly because of increasing cyberattacks, AI adoption and the need to protect new technologies. ([Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/information-security-analysts.htm?ref=s3t.org))
The tasks will change. But the need for smart technical people will *not* disappear.
## 3 unpleasant discoveries in the next 3 years
My expectation is that many organizations will make 3 unpleasant discoveries over the next 3 years:
**First, they need more experienced engineers than their AI workforce plans currently assume.** Not necessarily armies of people writing routine code by hand—but engineers who understand systems, dependencies, security, architecture and operational consequences.
**Second, cybersecurity spending will have to rise.** Organizations will be defending against conventional attackers using AI, autonomous tools pursuing objectives in unexpected ways, software-supply-chain vulnerabilities and the early stages of post-quantum migration.
**Third, this spending will compete with AI spending.** Within constrained technology budgets, money spent on security engineers, code audits, dependency inventories, cryptographic modernization, testing infrastructure and open-source support is money that cannot also be spent on premium frontier-model subscriptions, enormous token budgets and experimental AI projects.
This may lead some another unpleasant discovery for AI Big Tech and their investors and shareholders: The AI industry’s revenue forecasts often assume that customers will expand AI consumption to a level sufficient to warrant current valuations.
But customers may soon discover that AI itself creates additional security, governance and infrastructure expenses. They are already discovering that AI tokens aren't as affordable as they once thought.
None of this makes AI a poor investment. But it does underscore that the total cost of responsible AI adoption is larger than the starting invoice.
## 2026-2027 may be an ideal window for acquiring top talent
Software-development hiring remains well below its pre-pandemic baseline. As of July 17, 2026, Indeed’s U.S. software-development job-posting index stood at approximately 75.6, compared with a February 2020 baseline of 100\. ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE?ref=s3t.org))
That does not prove that salaries have reached an absolute bottom or that every engineer is inexpensive.
But it does suggest that employers currently have access to a talent market that is considerably less overheated than it was several years ago.
> **Good technical talent may be about as affordable and available now as it will be for much of the next five years.**
Smart companies should be using this period to recruit people who understand infrastructure, security, cryptography, distributed systems and complex software maintenance.
They should also be identifying the open-source dependencies buried inside their critical products and asking:
- Who maintains them?
- How many active reviewers do they have?
- Who can publish a release?
- What happens when the lead maintainer disappears?
- Is the project adequately funded?
- Do we have the expertise to repair or replace it?
- Are we contributing anything to the infrastructure from which we profit?
And btw: These are not questions for the IT department alone. They are questions about operational resilience, capital allocation and enterprise risk.
## AI needs engineers more than engineers need hype
The unsung-maintainer problem has been with us for decades. The difference now is that we are placing more automation, more economic value and more autonomous capability on top of the same uneven foundations.
AI could be harnessed and extraordinarily useful in maintaining those foundations.
But AI will not care whether an obscure encryption library remains secure. It will not feel accountable when a compatibility package loses its maintainer. It will not negotiate a controversial Bitcoin upgrade or decide how to balance property rights against quantum theft.
People will still have to do those things.
Organizations that understand this will use AI to make strong engineers more capable. Organizations that do not may dismiss the very people they will soon need to rescue them.
The age of AI is not the end of software engineering. It may be the beginning of a period in which genuinely good engineering becomes more strategically valuable than ever.
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### July 17 - Beyond Frontier AI: The Scientific Breakthroughs That Could Change the Strategic Landscape
URL: https://www.s3t.org/july-17-beyond-frontier-ai-the-scientific-breakthroughs-that-could-change-the-strategic-landscape/
Last updated: 2026-07-17T05:28:56.000Z
*Frontier Science may be getting more interesting than Frontier AI.* Be the first to understand the strategic landscape. [Sign up today at S3T.org](https://www.s3t.org/#/portal/signup).
S3T PodCast July 17 2026
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## The business world has been mesmerized by frontier AI...meanwhile...
Less conspicuous teams working at the frontiers of biology, chemistry, energy and materials science have continued making progress on some of humanity’s most difficult and persistent problems.
We do not want to lose sight of how consequential these developments could become.
> **The strategic question is not simply which technology is attracting the most capital or attention. It is which developments have the potential to alter the underlying constraints shaping markets, industries and human possibilities.**
### Start With the Physical Layer
The [**S3T Five Layers of Strategic Awareness Dashboard**](https://www.s3t.org/5layers/) organizes signals, bellwethers and leading indicators according to the different forces they represent.
Layer One is the **Physical Layer**: the measurable realities of the world around us.
This includes factors such as:
- Energy availability
- Water supplies
- Temperature trends
- Sea levels
- Mineral and material availability
- Grid capacity
- Physical infrastructure
**These realities impose *constraints* on human ambitions.** Capital, enthusiasm and policy can influence what gets built, but they cannot instantly create water, electricity, transmission capacity or critical materials where those resources do not exist.
Recent versions of the dashboard have repeatedly highlighted physical constraints on AI infrastructure—often before those constraints were widely acknowledged across the industry.
These have included limited access to power and water, delays in connecting data centers to electrical grids, rising cooling requirements and the construction of facilities before dependable grid access had been secured.
Individually, these issues may appear manageable. Collectively, they are beginning to exert a grinding effect on the pace, cost and future economics of AI expansion.
## From AI Maximalism to Cost Discipline
Writing in *Futurism*, Frank Landymore recently observed that “*the era of AI maximalism is grinding to a halt.*”
Only months ago, some executives were pressing employees to use AI as extensively as possible, including for software development. Now, many organizations are examining the resulting costs and asking harder questions about productivity, value and return on investment. ([Futurism](https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/ceos-reverse-course-ai-spending?ref=s3t.org))
Employees and operating teams have incorporated AI tools into their workflows, but usage costs can escalate rapidly. The challenge is no longer persuading people to experiment with AI. It is determining which uses generate enough value to justify their ongoing cost.
We have been tracking this transition for some time.
But this week, several important signals emerged—not only from frontier AI, but also from frontier science.
What makes these scientific developments particularly interesting is that some may eventually help alleviate the physical and economic constraints appearing elsewhere in the S3T Strategic Awareness Dashboard.
## What Actually Changed This Week?
From a strategic-awareness perspective, three developments deserve particular attention.
---
## 1\. AI Credit Exposure Became More Visible
The scale of AI-related borrowing is becoming much harder for investors to ignore.
Hyperscalers and other major technology companies have issued substantial volumes of investment-grade corporate debt to finance data centers, chips, energy infrastructure and other components of the AI buildout.
Recent reporting indicates that AI-related borrowing has become a major contributor to the rise in U.S. investment-grade bond issuance. Investor appetite has remained significant, but concerns are growing—particularly around long-dated bonds and the volume of additional borrowing that markets may eventually be asked to absorb. ([MarketWatch](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ai-related-debt-jumped-99-over-the-past-year-its-a-shock-to-the-system-for-investors-b47ce4ea?utm%5Fsource=chatgpt.com))
This matters because AI infrastructure risk is no longer concentrated primarily in venture capital rounds or public-equity valuations.
It is migrating into the credit markets.
> **Strategic interpretation: AI buildout risk is moving from speculative equity exposure into the balance sheets and long-term portfolios of institutional investors.**
Bond investors must now consider whether they want to commit capital for 10, 20 or 30 years to infrastructure whose economics may change dramatically within a much shorter period.
The central concern is not necessarily that companies such as Amazon, Alphabet, Meta or Microsoft will suddenly become unable to repay their debts. It is that investors could become locked into long-duration securities while AI technology, pricing models and infrastructure requirements continue to evolve rapidly.
At the same time, many enterprise customers are struggling to reconcile what they are spending on AI with the measurable value they are receiving.
That tension can ripple through the market:
AI providers need continued demand to support infrastructure investment. Enterprise customers need sufficient productivity or revenue gains to justify rising usage costs. Credit investors need confidence that the resulting cash flows will support decades of financing obligations.
### Questions for executives and investors
- How much long-duration exposure does your organization have to the AI infrastructure cycle?
- What assumptions about AI adoption and pricing are embedded in those investments?
- What happens if customers adopt AI but aggressively reduce token consumption?
- What happens if infrastructure becomes obsolete faster than anticipated?
---
## 2\. Compute Economics Are Narrowing Around Memory
The second shift concerns the economics of memory.
For much of the AI infrastructure debate, electricity and access to GPUs received the greatest attention. Those constraints remain important, but high-bandwidth memory, or HBM, and other forms of advanced memory are becoming equally important strategic variables.
A recent analysis published on arXiv connects potential restructuring within the AI industry to DRAM and HBM scarcity, inference bandwidth, model efficiency, infrastructure ownership and the cost advantages enjoyed by companies that acquired computing capacity before memory prices increased. The analysis remains a scenario study rather than a settled forecast, but it raises important questions about how AI cost structures may evolve. ([arXiv](https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.07207?utm%5Fsource=chatgpt.com))
At the point of use, several issues now converge:
- Who pays for inference?
- How much memory bandwidth does each workload require?
- Which generation of hardware is being used?
- Has that infrastructure already been substantially amortized?
- Is the model proprietary, open-weight or locally deployed?
- Can organizations shift to smaller or less expensive models?
- How durable will premium model pricing prove to be?
Leading AI providers are tightening usage policies, adopting more explicit consumption-based pricing and attempting to move customers toward plans that better reflect underlying compute costs.
Customers, in turn, are imposing token budgets, selecting cheaper models, reducing low-value usage and considering open or locally hosted alternatives.
> **Strategic interpretation: The critical constraint is no longer simply access to electricity or GPUs. Memory availability, bandwidth economics and the ownership history of compute infrastructure are becoming central components of the AI cost curve.**
This creates an important decision point for companies signing long-term agreements with hyperscalers or AI providers.
The question is not merely whether the service works today. The question is what cost structure the organization is locking itself into—and whether the products, services or productivity gains enabled by that agreement will retain sufficient margin to cover those costs.
### Executive implication
Before entering a major AI infrastructure or platform agreement, leaders should examine:
- Minimum consumption commitments
- Token and inference pricing
- Model-substitution rights
- Data-egress costs
- Contract duration
- Exposure to memory and hardware repricing
- The ability to move workloads to smaller, open or local models
AI strategy increasingly requires procurement discipline, architecture discipline and financial modeling—not simply enthusiasm for adoption.
---
## 3\. A Synthetic Cell Could Eventually Change the Physical Layer
The third development comes from synthetic biology.
Kate Adamala, Aaron Engelhart and their colleagues at the University of Minnesota have developed **SpudCell**, a synthetic cell-like system assembled from defined, non-living chemical components.
The system can perform several functions associated with a complete cellular life cycle, including genome replication, growth, feeding, division, selection and competition across multiple generations. ([University of Minnesota Twin Cities](https://twin-cities.umn.edu/news-events/worlds-first-synthetic-cell-complete-life-cycle-could-revolutionize-biological?ref=s3t.org))
That represents an important step toward creating increasingly functional biological systems from known components rather than modifying existing living cells.
> **Why it matters: A cell that can be constructed, understood and programmed from the bottom up could eventually become a new platform for manufacturing medicines, materials and industrial chemicals.**
Many products currently depend on either energy-intensive industrial chemistry or natural cells that are complex, variable and difficult to control.
A more predictable synthetic-cell platform could eventually help researchers perform molecular transformations that are difficult or expensive using existing methods. See this [S3T Explainer on the mechanisms that could reduce drug development costs](https://www.s3t.org/synthetic-cells/).
Potential long-term applications include:
- Precision therapeutics
- Specialized biologics
- New materials
- Industrial chemicals
- Lower-temperature manufacturing processes
- Agricultural inputs
- Products that currently depend on fossil-fuel-based chemistry
Healthcare is an especially important area to watch.
Precision medicines—including targeted cancer therapies, gene therapies and customized biologics—can be extraordinarily expensive to develop and manufacture. One reason is that biological manufacturing often relies on complex living cells whose behavior can be difficult to predict and consistently control.
In theory, a synthetic cell with a defined chemical composition and programmable functions could eventually provide a more controllable manufacturing platform.
That does not mean inexpensive precision drugs are imminent. The work has been released as a preprint, and substantial technical challenges remain. SpudCell still depends on externally supplied materials, has limited generational endurance and does not yet reproduce all of its own internal machinery. ([Biotic](https://www.biotic.org/research/spudcell?ref=s3t.org))
But it does demonstrate something strategically significant: essential cellular behaviors can be reconstructed from defined components.
## Frontier Science May Rewrite Existing Constraints
The larger point is not that synthetic cells will immediately solve healthcare affordability—or that every scientific breakthrough will become commercially viable.
The point is that frontier science is advancing alongside frontier AI.
Developments in biology, chemistry, materials science, energy and climate modeling may eventually alter some of the physical constraints we currently treat as fixed.
They could change:
- How products are manufactured
- Which materials are scarce
- How much energy industrial processes require
- How medicines are developed
- What healthcare costs
- Which countries or companies control critical capabilities
- Where value accumulates across supply chains
Some of these developments may complement AI. Others may become more consequential than many of today’s highly visible AI applications.
## The Bottom Line
AI remains an extraordinarily important general-purpose technology. But strategic awareness requires looking beyond the technologies receiving the most attention.
At the moment, the AI buildout is encountering increasingly visible constraints involving capital, credit, power, water, memory and cost.
At the same time, less visible scientific teams are developing capabilities that could eventually change some of those constraints—or create entirely new economic possibilities.
This could get interesting. As always, we'll be monitoring the horizon for early signals.
> **The future will not be shaped by AI alone. It will be shaped by the interaction between intelligence, biology, energy, materials, finance and the physical limits of the world in which all of them must operate.**
That is why the Strategic Awareness Dashboard looks across multiple layers.
**Change leaders who take accountability for the future cannot simply follow the loudest narrative.** They must identify which signals are changing the underlying conditions—and prepare their organizations before those changes become obvious to everyone else.
Thank you again for listening and reading, sharing S3T. And thank you especially for being a change leader and investing time in learning change leadership skills and tools to stay ahead of the curve and innovate intentional beneficial change.
Hope you have a great weekend and a great week ahead!
Ralph
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interest in companies mentioned.*
---
### Gift wrap vs insight - the changing nature of strategic awareness
URL: https://www.s3t.org/gift-wrap-vs-insight-the-changing-nature-of-strategic-awareness/
Last updated: 2026-07-10T01:41:16.000Z
*If you read the top shelf news outlets - especially in finance and tech - you can't help notice a certain repetition...*
S3T PodCast July 10 2026
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### Similar stories repeated week after week
Something is changing in the way we consume information. News companies have put themselves on a rat wheel that requires them to talk about *something* round the clock just to keep drawing eyeballs to their ads. As a result the major trends of the month or quarter get *repackaged* each week with slightly different phrasings and anecdotes - that is when they aren't completely displaced by click bait.
**Take the recent funny business in private capital.** Over weeks of time, dozens of news stories reported on this, each sharing one or two pieces of the puzzle gift wrapped in nice writing. In the top finance news outlets, the underlying realities are alluded to, but diluted with stories of banter over swanky lunches, snarky asides, background context that is unchanged from two weeks back, but now wrapped in fresh phrasing. A offers wittiness, B has dry humor, C and D have their vibes etc. Different retellings of the same rock rolling down the same hill.
Entertaining at times.
It's a dilemma for those who need to stay ahead of the curve but don't have unlimited time (or money). If a key trend / insight should influence our decisions or investments, please explain it to us in clear terms, *once*. Don't raise the topic again until something changes.
This is the need that drives the S3T Strategic Awareness Dashboard - a macro intelligence engine that monitors early signals and developing trends across hundreds of primary sources, datasets and research.
### Highlights from the latest release of the S3T Strategic Awareness Dashboard:
- **AI has shifted from innovation story to system-risk story:** AI is still a growth story, but evidence now links it to grid access, labor restructuring, private credit exposure, service-sector cost pressure, and tokenized financial infrastructure. AI economic risks are now being discussed at the economic policy level in the US: A draft Treasury report obtained by NOTUS warns that AI firms are now deeply embedded in the economy, more than dot-com firms were. Corrections, or even missed expectations could send shockwaves through markets and infrastructure.
- **Services are still expanding, but watch price pressure and margin compression.** Service sector metrics show slight expansion in June, as does employment. Backlogs are rising, and the prices index remained elevated. Expansion persists, but costs remain selective: Services and manufacturing are expanding, but labor, electronics inputs, prices, and backlogs show that **growth is still constrained.**
- **Competition is heating up in the programmable money sector:** Open USD and Robinhood's tokenized-market push show stablecoins, brokerage, exchange infrastructure, and customer rights moving into the same strategic frame. This is going to disrupt the macro-vertical that entire finance industries operate in: banking, insurance, private capital, as well as retail and institutional investing. In spite of their ground breaking technical capabilities, stablecoin and tokenized-market growth is constrained by lack of token-holder protections (akin to shareholder protections).
### The operating environment is dropping hints about the next 3 years:
- Expect AI competition to be judged by the combined credibility of model performance, power access, financing structure, utility exposure, but most of all measurable productivity payback. Don't be fuzzy about your token budget.
- Expect the labor signal to split between headline employment resilience vs sector-specific redesign.
- AI is driving job cuts, but some firms are finding their cuts were premature, and that people are cheaper than tokens. As the hype and noise dies down, expect to see flatter firms, and continuing but different skill demands.
- We may start to see a change in the math around modernization: one story, making the rounds right now is the [migration of Bun in 11 days](https://bun.com/blog/bun-in-rust?ref=s3t.org). Bun is a javascript programming and testing toolkit. The port from Zig to Rust was done in 11 days and per the team lead would have otherwise three engineers about a year to complete.
- Expect a strategic contest in the stablecoins and tokenized assets space over who will dominate programmable settlement rails, partner economics, customer rights, and regulatory perimeter. ROI in this space may be more straightforward/doable than in the pure AI / Agentic space.
💡
Links to these and more signals and developments in the [S3T Strategic Awareness Dashboard](https://www.s3t.org/5layers/). To gain access, start your Premium Subscription: [**Sign up now and get a 30 day free trial*](https://www.s3t.org/the-adaptability-principle-how-to-leverage-it-to-drive-change/#/portal/signup).
Why sign up for the Strategic Awareness Dashboard? If you and your team are trying to understand the most important moves to make and skills to develop, if you want to increase your strategic awareness, and understand the strategic landscape before everyone else does, the S3T Strategic Awareness Dashboard is for you. Each week you get the latest sets of early signals synthesized so you can quickly and easily consider what developments you want to factor into your decisions, investments and preparations for future strategic advantages.
### One question that comes up: Does the rise of signals dashboards mean journalism dead?
Hardly.
Anyone worried about the prospects of high quality independent journalism should check out Substack, other publishing platforms not owned by billionaires, and the abundance of primary research and data portals.
There is more good quality, deeply researched insight and reading available *than ever*.
Perhaps, the only thing that's dead is the myth that ad supported for-profit media companies would ever be reliable sources of independent high quality journalism. (Seriously, what corporate sponsor was ever truly willing to underwrite free speech for anyone besides themselves?)
Thank you all for reading and sharing S3T! Hope you have a wonderful weekend and a successful week ahead.
Ralph
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### July 4, 2026 - The uncertainty was always part of the deal...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/july-4-2026-the-uncertainty-was-always-part-of-the-deal/
Last updated: 2026-07-04T04:58:04.000Z
S3T PodCast July 4 2026
0:00
/1120.574693877551
1×
*Happy July 4th - today we are celebrating the nation's 250th birthday and a milestone of this magnitude deserves a pause for reflection, and as we always share in the S3T newsletter - a forward outlook on the work required to enable a better future.*
Just 8 years after the American Revolution had been won, Robert Johnson was riding on his horse through the woods of western Pennsylvania. Suddenly he found himself surrounded by 11 men dressed as women. They pulled him off his horse, stripped him naked, then tarred and feathered him. After this they stole his horse, and left him alone in the woods.
Robert Johnson was a federal tax agent sent to enforce a new tax on whiskey - part of young American government's desperate plan to raise revenue and address the crushing debt from the costs of the War for Independence. Most citizens figured taxing whiskey was just plain wrong. They were determined to make it stop.
This was just one of the [bizarre opening events of what became the Whiskey Rebellion](https://www.history.com/articles/whiskey-rebellion?ref=s3t.org). It culminated in a movement that created its own flag and ultimately recruited a local militia of 7,000 men planning to attack Pittsburgh (the *original* Pittsburgh "stealers") .
As the armed militia gathered outside the town, the Pittsburgh folks - always quick thinkers - sent out a gift of several barrels of whiskey. This helped defuse or at least delay the crisis but ultimately George Washington ended up assembling a federal militia of 12,000 to put down the revolt.
This was just one of many rebellions, uprisings and riots in our 250 years of history - here is the [full list](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List%5Fof%5Fincidents%5Fof%5Fcivil%5Funrest%5Fin%5Fthe%5FUnited%5FStates?ref=s3t.org) and it's *longer* than you're expecting. And this is just one category of the many different kinds of **uncertainty** in the long story of our nation.
Uncertainty - and the way we handle it - turns out to be a *very timely* topic as we celebrate our 250th.
Much has been written about the noticeable tilt toward authoritarianism here in the opening years of the 21st century - not just in the US, but across other nations as well - and what makes this happen. Why do people create emotional bonds with authoritarian leaders?
### The allure of certainty in a changing and complex world
People who feel economically insecure, socially displaced, isolated, or status-threatened are more susceptible to movements or political leaders that say with certainty:
*“Your problems are real. Here is who to blame. I will fix it for you.”*
People fall into this, not because they are unintelligent. But rather because **certainty can be emotionally relieving.** The promise of certainty from an authority figure is powerful - it hits the core of what made us look to our parents, coaches, teachers, older siblings and other figures for reassurance when we were little.
Today we face a world that makes us feel little, unready, un-knowledgeable. As we face this world and its extreme uncertainty, something inside us has a strong desire to turn to a parent figure. The rising complexities and changes of our world today increases anxiety. Certainty - even just the promise of it - *reduces* anxiety.
Political strategists have learned to use this to their advantage. Politics always was a competition for emotional bandwidth. Today it's powered by algorithmic technology. In a world of constant feeds, short videos, and fragmented attention, **oversimplified emotionally resonant fear-based narratives always outperform detailed explanations.** This applies across the political spectrum, not just the far right.
These negative fear based messages are then paired with the promise of certainty:
*"Your anxiety is well-founded. Dangerous things are happening. Here's who to blame, vote for me and I will punish them for you."*
The election results over and over show just how powerful this formula can be. When triggered by fear based messages, paired with the promise of certainty from an authority figure, voters will overlook reason, ethics, legalities, scandals, any number of disqualifiers and vote for that authority figure anyway. Because we all have a very strong emotional need for certainty.
Amp the fear, promise the certainty, win the election.
Election results seem baffling only when viewed through "fact-based" lenses that doesn't factor in human psychology.
It's a depressing thought: This is supposed to be republic of freedom - but it's being run more like a republic of feardom.
But it doesn't have to stay this way. Our 250th is a perfect time to reflect and recalibrate for the work that remains, and the path ahead.
Photo by [Richard Lee](https://unsplash.com/@brock222?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### What our 250th means to me
What I think about and share here, I share as someone who wants to see our nation succeed. And as a son of ancestors who arrived in America *before* the Revolution, and at least 2 ancestors who fought in the Revolutionary War. On the shelves and walls above the desk where I work every day, I have my great great grandfather Huston Perrine's Civil War medal, my Dad's flag, and my collection of books on American history dating back to 1794\. Beyond that I carry with me generations of stories handed down from my parents and grandparents about the work and the realities of being an American citizen.
I think our 250th is a good time to re-connect with the true uncertainty of the early years of our nation. We look back at the story of the Revolution, the Liberty Bell, the first flag, and maybe have this false notion that this was all a predetermined guaranteed march to freedom. In hindsight, in the retelling of the stories, it can feel very certain.
It absolutely was not. Not even after the War for Independence was won. The fact that today our continued security and freedom is *still* not a predetermined and guaranteed thing shouldn't surprise or demoralize us.
High uncertainty, dangerous errors, exhausting work to be done were always just part of the deal. We may have forgotten that, and this 250th celebration is a great time to reflect and reconnect with the realties. And steel ourselves for the path forward.
### High Uncertainty
As a young adult I started collecting old books on political and economic history. One treasure on my shelves: the 1899 edition of the Presidential Papers: a 10 volume set of all US Presidential correspondence and speeches from George Washington to William McKinley.
Reading through these heavy old books, you get a sense of the day to day chaos that is very different from the sanitized stories of American history we learned as kids. And you can't help notice how fragile and imperiled our young nation was...how very *unlikely* it was that it would survive even the first 20 years. And how deeply divided it has *always* been, *even in the initial years after the Revolution was won*. So many aspects of the government were just a complete hot mess. Debt, currency, other hopeless challenges. Scary events like the Whiskey Rebellion. **Nothing about those early days even hinted we'd still be here 250 years later.**
Today we face new kinds of uncertainties as technology accelerates and the global economy changes. As in the early days, these uncertainties are often connected in some way to dangerous errors and issues in our national experience.
### Dangerous Errors
I think most of us are aware of the errors in our beloved country, so there isn't a need (or time/space) to write out the entire litany.
But a few of the obvious ones from the past:
- Writing a beautifully inspired Declaration of Independence about equality and liberty - but then refusing to apply it to more than half of the population.
- Slavery and the systematic displacement of native people.
- The lack of an organized economic system, debt from the Revolutionary War, multiple currencies and other financial dysfunction.
- Taking nearly 200 years to recognize and encode basic civil rights into law in the 1960's.
- The odd fact that - except for the original native peoples - the rest of us were all literally immigrants...yet we can be easily induced to hate immigrants(!??)
Some of the obvious ones from the present:
- The US today is an exhibit of power minus wisdom - what Diana Senechal calls a Republic of Noise - where social media and memethink override clarity.
- Our leaders subvert our own economy, and give our international adversaries step by step lessons in how to let us defeat ourselves.
- We take the most vulnerable groups within our society and make them national punching bags for political gain. Basic rights for gender diverse individuals and families still seems to be a point of contention.
- Economic elites use their wealth to control media and shape political attention in ways that preserve their economic position, keeping non-elites compliant by distracting them with emotionally charged cultural conflicts.
- We destroy the credibility of our system of law by deploying poorly trained paramilitary teams to raid our own cities.
- Extreme concentrations of capital threaten economic stability. Our top leaders use their office to enrich themselves through blatant and obscene schemes.
But I would argue that **none of what is happening today is any worse than the majority of US history.** Aside from pockets of peace and prosperity - usually distributed very unevenly, our nation has always been a place where life for the average citizen was not certain or easy.
America is called "home of the brave" for a reason: You literally have to be brave to live here. That was always the case, and it still is.
[Camp Gordon 1918](https://www.georgiahistory.com/ghmi%5Fmarker%5Fupdated/camp-gordon/?ref=s3t.org) \- Image from [Public Domain Image Archive.](https://pdimagearchive.org/?ref=s3t.org)
### Work to be done
When we look back at our history its easy to look at the accomplishments and milestones - from the Declaration of Independence, to victories in WWI and WWII, the abolition of slavery, the interstate highway system, the trips to the moon, and so much more - but forget the blood, sweat and tears that went into each of them.
And there has always been a lot of work to be done. There may not have always been enough jobs. But there has always been a lot of work required - even just to be a citizen. The work to understand the great challenges of our day. The work to overcome our great errors, and make things better for everyone.
And perhaps the hardest work of all: the work it takes to understand and connect with each other so we can live peaceably together.
Americans in general seem to have lost perspective on what is expected of them as American citizens.
What is the role of citizen and what are the responsibilities required? We seem to confuse being a citizen with being a sports fan. We show up for the big fight every 4 years, root for our team and maybe get a little crazy. After that we're free of all responsibility? Really? Slap on a bumper sticker, buy a hat, be sure to insult the other team anytime we can, that's it? Most of us do not engage in the full work of being an American citizen.
When you vote, you're **starting** a conversation with whoever gets elected - A conversation that should be carried on fearlessly *at least monthly if not weekly* with your elected representatives.
A conversation that needs to be informed by your thoughtful reflection and research. Taking the time to read and study, and develop your own independent perspective, rather than repeating memes from YouTubers and cable news shows.
Why? Because in a free democracy, power is invested in *you*. You are kind of like ...the owner or the boss. You have a leadership role to play. And like any leader you need to communicate frequently with your team. If you don't, who knows what they will do?
When you hear someone complaining about the state of the country, ask them: When was the last time you called or emailed your representative?
Perhaps the hardest work: the work to understand each other and live peaceably.
This is what will break the cycle of people falling prey to promises of certainty from authoritarian figures. This will also allow us to work together in a unified coherent and effective way to address the errors that put our nation at risk. Let's zoom in on this.
First, the very nature of our democratic experiment *requires* that we put extra effort into getting along. Understanding each other, sharing our experiences, what makes us different, and adapting and adjusting to each other.
It's a uniquely challenging thing to be a melting pot of free people who live peaceably together. Most nations of history were either large groups of a single nationality or ancestry. Where there were mixes of different groups, they were usually kept in forced conformity under the authoritarian fist of a monarch or emperor.
The ideas of freedom to pursue life liberty and happiness, and freedom of speech, freedom of religion are very challenging to implement and sustain when its a broad diverse group.
It takes work - *more than we might expect* \- but when we are willing to invest in this, you get a level of strength, peace and security that surpasses any other arrangements in the world. You also get a level of resilience and creativity that rises above any challenge. That's what we're going for, and that's what makes it worthwhile. If you think about it, you've gotten glimpses of this in your experience so far. There's more to come. It just takes work. And bravery. And a willingness to endure uncertainty rather than believe politicians who promise to save us from it all.
An early whiskey ad from a [certain Perrine](https://pre-prowhiskeymen.blogspot.com/2014/10/the-perrines-blue-bloods-in.html?ref=s3t.org)
### Fortitude
I think if we could go back and talk to our ancestors, and tell them what we are going through, they would empathize. But they might also tell us what *they* went through - and when we hear it, we might agree their experience was tough too...and maybe worse.
And therein lies the hope. The courage and resilience that got them through can get us through too. It lives on in you and me.
Being a citizen in a free democracy sounds dreamy. Sounds wonderful. The reality is, it is a lot of uncertainty, and a lot of hard work to overcome dangerous risks and errors. Slow progress on great flaws that comes only through exhausting diligence. Taking risks, caring and showing up. This is not for the faint of heart.
On this July 4th, if you reach for a little whiskey, I won't blame you. As an American citizen **you literally have one of the toughest jobs in the world.** Maybe no one told you.
Now you know. Happy 250\.
Ralph
---
Photo by [JOGphotos](https://unsplash.com/@jogara%5F0?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### The adaptability principle - how to leverage it to drive change
URL: https://www.s3t.org/the-adaptability-principle-how-to-leverage-it-to-drive-change/
Last updated: 2026-06-28T19:29:07.000Z
S3T Podcast June 26 2026
0:00
/908.0424489795919
1×
A couple of weeks back, we started talking about why it's time to define and hire those new AI job roles that are starting to emerge. We've also talked about the need to rethink business processes rather than simply bolt AI onto a specific step (and cause downstream congestion etc). These emerging imperatives are putting organizations in some very awkward positions: figuring out where these jobs should reside and how the org structure needs to change.
As AI becomes a more pervasive enabler for enterprise capabilities, change leaders are under tremendous pressure to figure out:
- what new kind of organizational structures they should have going forward:
- how teams should be arranged,
- how should roles and responsibilities be allocated
### Increasingly common leadership dilemma: deciding how/when to communicate about upcoming changes
When facing reorgs, mergers or other organizational changes that impact people, leaders have always wrestled with the dilemmas of deciding when to share, what to share, how to share about oncoming change.
But now it's even more challenging: *today's* kinds of changes and pace of change - especially in regulated or critical business operations - literally **can't be responsibly planned *without* engaging the people who will be impacted by those changes.**
Should leaders share information early, knowing that details may be incomplete or questions will follow, or should they wait until everything is finalized?
Whether it's reorganizations, mergers, new partnerships and ventures, new product launches, or even strategic pivots within an organization, this same dilemma shows up over and over again: How long should you keep things under wraps?
So this week we want to learn some of the evolving principles and research that should guide our decisions on how to engage, communicate when we are leading change.
Very timely, as today's organizations struggle to find the structures that will allow them to match the demands of the new operating environment.
### Welcome to the new abnormal
This is probably going to continue for the next several years. Rapid/continuous organizational changes, reorgs, new kinds of partnerships, new ways of working, and new ways of incorporating technology. Organizations are and will be in a constant state of flux.
So how to manage this new pace of change? And especially the *timing* of what you reveal and how much do you reveal?
💡
The S3T platform (for paid subscriptions) now features a brand new two-part learning segment on the [Adaptability Principle: How successful change leaders communicate and influence during times of change](https://www.s3t.org/the-adaptability-principle-why-change-leaders-share-earlier-than-they-feel-comfortable/) \- a must-have perspective & principles for anyone facing the challenge of leading a team through AI-driven organizational change. [**Sign up now and get a 30 day free trial*](https://www.s3t.org/#/portal/signup).
I want to take a few minutes here in our newsletter and podcast this week to jump start your thinking and learning on this critical new take on change leadership. Let's walk thru a few key points together.
### People are very adaptable, more than we give them credit for
Think about this objectively, and you start to realize **we should probably share things earlier so that people have the most time to adapt to them**.
One caveat: You can't *always* share everything. Sometimes there can be legal reasons or other reasons why you might not be able to share something.
But all things being equal, if you share earlier, people have more time to adapt.
And **people can't adapt to something that they haven't been exposed to.**
### A smaller group can't outwit a larger group
This is another highlight from the learning segment.
I've seen this play out over and over again in organizational change scenarios:
- A smaller group of people, usually the management team or select team that's responsible for planning out a future phase, desperately trying to keep everything under wraps.
- Meanwhile, a larger group of employees already know *something* is up. They are rapidly connecting the dots, getting little pieces of information here and there, noticing little things that are different, comparing notes with other individuals who are also picking up on things. They're going out for beers and talking after work etc.
It becomes this huge intelligence network. Someone hears something offhand from a customer or vendor (these groups are not usually aware of, or motivated to be conscientious about lines of confidentiality) and then more dots are connected.
Your safest bet, I would almost say this is an immutable principle: A smaller group of people will *never* be able to keep a larger group of people totally in the dark about anything. A smaller group of processors can't stay ahead of a larger group of processors.
### There comes a point at where further attempts to keep things hidden are just credibility busters
And we'll share some case studies in the premium content where you'll be able to see this both from negative *and* positive examples. Sometimes revealing the truth too late creates more harm than if you had revealed it earlier.
When you're thinking about the timing of "when do we share this?" especially with impacted employees or partners, I think there is a personal reflection that becomes really important:
- Am I delaying communication just because I'm squeamish about the confrontation or the reaction that will happen? Am I trying to keep this under wraps because I'm fearful that somehow the plan will be jeopardized once it is fully known?
OR
- Am I really thinking about this in objective terms of how do I share in the optimal timing when I'm legally allowed or allowed per the terms of maybe a partnership that's pending etc?
And, am I sharing in the optimal timing that enables the right level of trust, the right kind of preparation for a well executed change, and the time needed for the team to adapt and get themselves ready for the next chapter?
Trust is a very, very important element - and a critical predictor of successful change. A large body of change management research consistently finds that employee trust in leadership is one of the strongest predictors of positive reactions to change and follow through.
### 3 Phases of Collective Understanding - how to use this to your advantage
Now, part two of our 2 part learning segment goes into the three phases of *collective understanding*. What is collective understanding?
So people tend to have their own *personal view* of things.
But then they also tend to be heavily influenced by what we could call the *collective understanding* or **the way the group is thinking about any event or situation that's playing out.** This gets into interesting territory:
- The options that the group believes are THE options (which is usually different from the actual *entire* set of possible options),
- Which options are preferred by some sub-groups - different subgroups will prefer different options
- Why different parts of the group have different preferences and dreads
- How this starts to resolve.
It's actually some fascinating stuff. And in times of change, this collective understanding goes through 3 phases. If you understand these 3 phases, it will help you navigate how and when to communicate, and how to drive alignment on a viable path forward.
### New day, new game
Like it or not, we're all now in a new chapter, a sea change, and we have to adapt. We're all learning the new rules, and the new techniques that work, and which ones don't.
So that's why this two-part section on adaptability and change is such a timely set of valuable resources. I hope you will go and take advantage of this learning opportunity!
That's going to do it for this week. Thank you again for reading and listening to S3T, and investing time in your own change leadership skills.
I hope you have a great weekend and a great week ahead!
Ralph
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### Juneteenth, Change & the Responsibility of Leadership
URL: https://www.s3t.org/juneteenth-change-the-responsibility-of-leadership/
Last updated: 2026-06-19T17:34:11.000Z
*Juneteenth reminds us to stay committed to our baseline ethical duties of leadership*
S3T PodCast June 19 2026
0:00
/708.9110204081633
1×
Many across the United States will pause to observe Juneteenth, the day of remembrance that [began in Texas so many years ago](https://texashighways.com/culture/history/how-juneteenth-brought-emancipation-enslaved-people-texas/?ref=s3t.org). It is worth reflecting on this day of profound, complicated gravity - and what it actually represents.
Juneteenth marks the day in 1865 when enslaved Americans in Galveston, Texas, finally learned of their emancipation—a full two and a half years after the Emancipation Proclamation was signed - and that it [would be finally *enforced*](https://www.sethkaller.com/item/2161-26129-Rare-Houston-Texas-Newspapers%3A-the-Juneteenth-Order-Freeing-Slaves%2C-Lincoln%E2%80%99s-Emancipation-Proclamation%2C-and-Much-More%26from%3D7?ref=s3t.org).
[Houston Tri-Weekly Telegraph 1865](https://www.sethkaller.com/item/2161-26129-Rare-Houston-Texas-Newspapers%3A-the-Juneteenth-Order-Freeing-Slaves%2C-Lincoln%E2%80%99s-Emancipation-Proclamation%2C-and-Much-More%26from%3D7?ref=s3t.org)
To be clear, this delay was *not* some kind of communication oversight.
This was a case of prioritizing commercial profits over human equity. [Slave owners ignored the Emancipation Proclamation and continued business as usual so they could profit from cotton and corn harvests](https://texashighways.com/culture/history/how-juneteenth-brought-emancipation-enslaved-people-texas/?ref=s3t.org). In other words this was a commercial attempt to withhold information in order to extract maximum profits from exploited people.
Important point before we proceed: we should not equate modern workplace or wealth inequities with the unique horror and brutality of slavery. They are fundamentally different in gravity.
But if we are permissive toward small inequities today—letting the efficiencies of AI squeeze workers while consolidating wealth for a few—we pave the way for greater harms tomorrow. **Passive leadership always defaults to inequality.** True change leadership requires an active, unyielding commitment to ensure that the breakthroughs of this new era are used to widen prosperity, not restrict it.
This sets the tone for the key themes from this week’s executive briefings and dashboard updates:
---
Photo by [Bankim Desai](https://unsplash.com/@rochangraphics?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### 🔍 AI Adoption Requires Organizational Transformation
One of the clearest signals emerging from recent research: successful AI adoption is rarely just a technology story. Organizations that see meaningful gains tend to redesign workflows, invest in people, rethink incentives, and prepare for temporary disruption before productivity gains arrive. The AI Absorption Challenge is real - and it will steal your ROI if you don't understand it. [**Click here for S3T Executive Briefing *The AI Absorption Challenge***](https://www.s3t.org/the-ai-absorption-challenge/) **with key insights for leaders of IT Services Firms.**
---
Photo by [Vitaly Gariev](https://unsplash.com/@silverkblack?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### ⚖️ Human-Centered Recruiting Still Matters
As companies automate hiring, there is a growing leadership question: are recruiting systems helping candidates understand culture and opportunity — or inadvertently creating experiences that feel impersonal or dehumanizing? First impressions shape trust, engagement, and ultimately team performance. **AI can become a powerful part of a culture of service and care when leaders think carefully about *where* to position AI and *where* to keep a human touch.** Click here to access the [S3T *Executive Briefing: How to Position AI in Your Talent Process Without Damaging Culture, Brand, or Trust* ](https://www.s3t.org/ai-in-the-hiring-process-the-welcome-test/)
---
Photo by [Kumiko SHIMIZU](https://unsplash.com/@shimikumi32?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### ☀️ Energy abundance & SpaceX: 3 questions leaders should wrestle with
The debate around energy abundance, innovation, and large-scale technological bets is becoming more important. Leaders benefit from examining both sides carefully — asking hard questions about feasibility, incentives, timing, unintended consequences, and what creates the greatest long-term value for society. Click here to access the [S3T Perspective: Betting on the future of space, solar and civilization: 3 questions to wrestle with](https://www.s3t.org/betting-on-the-future-of-space-solar-and-civilization-3-questions-to-wrestle-with/).
---
Photo by [Tanguy Sauvin](https://unsplash.com/@tanguysauvin?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### 📊 Strategic Awareness Dashboard: Signals Beneath the Headlines
The latest [Strategic Awareness Dashboard](https://www.s3t.org/5layers/) highlights key developments worth watching:
• AI “freebies” are fading as pricing shifts toward usage-based consumption and ROI scrutiny increases.
• Gold’s growing role in reserve allocation raises longer-term questions about confidence, debt, and monetary systems.
• Rising debt servicing costs and private credit uncertainty continue to shape macroeconomic risk.
• The gap between technological capability and organizational readiness may prove larger than many expect.
---
## Takeways
The common thread across all of these topics is simple:
**Good leadership begins with seeing clearly.** Learning the strategic landscape before it becomes obvious to everyone else. The early signals, the tradeoffs they bring. The impacts to people and strategies. Seeing what may need to change. And seeing this before others do.
Whatever this week brings, I hope you find moments to rest, reflect, learn, and invest in people - you, your family, your team, your community - and in the ideas that matter most.
Wishing you a meaningful Juneteenth, and wisdom for the changes ahead.
— Ralph
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### Baked Alaska, UBI, Tax code changes, why its time to define & hire those new AI job roles.
URL: https://www.s3t.org/baked-alaska-ubi-tax-code-changes-why-its-time-to-define-hire-those-new-ai-job-roles/
Last updated: 2026-06-13T03:06:33.000Z
*Alaska is already* [*warming at the 2-3x the global average*](https://www.climatehubs.usda.gov/hubs/northwest/topic/alaska-and-changing-climate?ref=s3t.org) *with permafrost thaw damaging critical infrastructure. Ironically its oil-dividend model may be used to rationalize a continued mad rush to overbuild AI energy grids and data centers - and make Alaska's warming even worse. *This week's S3T executive briefing reviews the stark choices that change leaders are facing - at the macro policy level and the organizational level. But regardless of how those play out, savvy leaders have a chance to gain first mover advantage for the key talent needed for the next 3-5 years.**
---
S3T PodCast June 12 2026
0:00
/1495.0661224489795
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## 3 emerging proposals for addressing potential AI disruption to the workforce
### #1\. Use AI profits to pay dividends to citizens
Alaska’s oil-dividend model is the hottest new policy idea for cushioning AI disruption to the workforce.
The [Alaska Permanent Fund](https://pfd.alaska.gov/?ref=s3t.org) has been providing equal annual payments to Alaska state residents for more than 40 years now. The model is often cited as a template for AI-era “universal dividends” because when it was created in the 1970s it transformed a shared public asset — oil royalties — into a sovereign investment fund that pays annual cash dividends to residents.
The core idea behind adapting this model to AI: if AI becomes a civilization-scale engine of wealth creation, citizens can collectively own a share of its upside through equity stakes, taxes, or an AI sovereign wealth fund that distributes annual payments.
There may be something worth exploring here. But Alaska’s experience also highlights the limitations of this approach: while the fund has been broadly positive, and [has lifted some above the poverty line](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/pop4.398?ref=s3t.org), annual dividends have averaged less than $2,000 per person and have been trending downward.
[Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend in dollars and as percent of income](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/pop4.398?ref=s3t.org)
So let's do some math to reality-check the idea that sharing AI company profits could help offset workforce disruptions and rising unemployment:
- The [US individual federal poverty level for 2026](https://www.healthcare.gov/glossary/federal-poverty-level-fpl/?ref=s3t.org) is **$15,960/year**.
- The Census Bureau’s [latest official poverty rate is **10.6%**](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2025/demo/p60-287.html?ref=s3t.org), which means **35.9 million people were below the poverty line as of 2024**.
- To simply keep everyone above the poverty line, an AI Universal Basic Income plan would require AI companies to pay out **$573B in dividends each year** ($15.9K x 35.9M people).
- For reference, the entire SP500 *combined* paid out [dividends of $665B in 2025](https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/corporate-news/article/sp-500-q3-2025-buybacks-post-modest-62-gain-to-249-0-billion-after-declining-20-1-amidst-uncertainty-in-q2/?ref=s3t.org).
- And - the AI companies to date, are generally NOT yet profitable so they wouldn't actually be contributing to this payout. One AI *related* company is profitable - NVIDIA - but [NVIDIA's 2025 profits of $130.5B](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-fourth-quarter-and-fiscal-2025?ref=s3t.org) would only cover a fraction of the required payout.
- If AI causes unemployment rates to rise even modestly, then this dividend would need to be a lot bigger.
Bottom line - we probably shouldn't be calling this "Universal Basic Income" ....it's more like "annual stimulus check". It could be helpful as a financial buffer, yes, but nowhere close to offsetting widespread unemployment or replace lost wages at a national scale if AI significantly disrupts labor markets.
### #2\. Change Tax Policy
AI's anticipated impacts to the workforce and economy are also prompting calls for changes to the US Tax Code.
- Vinod Khosla - early OpenAI investor - at a conference in DC [proposed a tax code overhaul](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/technology/tech-news/openai-founder-vinod-khosla-proposes-remove-income-tax-on-americans-earning-less-than-100000-by-/articleshow/129877621.cms?ref=s3t.org) eliminating income tax on individuals making less than $100,000 a year. Coverage [here](https://fortune.com/2026/04/07/sam-altman-vinod-khosla-openai-tax-code-american-income-tax-100k/?ref=s3t.org) and [here](https://www.ft.com/content/b277360e-bf23-4366-afd7-acab940f66b7?syn-25a6b1a6=1&ref=s3t.org). Predictably Fortune magazine hit back with a "let's not get crazy here" [rebuttal](https://fortune.com/2026/06/05/sam-altman-vinod-khosla-ai-tax-wrong-tax-foundation/?ref=s3t.org).
- Dario Amodei also posted [a blog piece](https://darioamodei.com/post/policy-on-the-ai-exponential?ref=s3t.org) proposing higher capital gains taxes to fund universal income: "*The key challenge in such a world won’t be incentivizing growth, but finding a way for everyone to share in the benefits."*
As noted in the S3T explainer [Comparing taxes on individuals vs companies](https://www.s3t.org/taxes/), US Tax policy needed an overhaul even before AI.
But Amodei and Khosla's proposals are some of the more concrete additions to emerging thought on how to cope with AI's radical remake of the workforce expected sometime before 2035\.
### #3\. Just believe in awesomeness
The proposals reviewed so far stand in sharp contrast to the "Age of Abundance" memes floated out of Silicon Valley since 2024\. These memes carry a general message of "it's going to be awesome" dressed up in evangelistic prose.
Consider this breathless gem from [an A16Z devotional](https://a16z.com/how-ai-will-usher-in-an-era-of-abundance/?ref=s3t.org):
*"what indeed are the implications for software that can write poetry, listen emphatically, compose music...Consumers will rediscover the latent creativity that lives within all of us. Lacking creative skills will no longer be a barrier to creating art..."*
Asking AI to draw you a picture is *creating*??....So....when you order a burger on the MacDonald's app, you're actually cooking??
Just this week at the launch of Prometheus (a startup that seeks to build an AI engineer) Bezos claimed [AI will create a labor shortage](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/bezos-bats-down-ai-job-loss-fears-while-launching-new-venture-d1e6fb09?ref=s3t.org) and once again reiterated the "golden age" meme.
This is a very shiny *brochure*, cooked up by people who live in a cocoon and believe they are [on their way to becoming super-human](https://thepointmag.com/examined-life/superhuman-fantasies/?ref=s3t.org). And of course if the reality turns out to be different from the brochure, this won't matter to the cocooned class.
As Zoe Keating put it:
"*One of the problems with Silicon Valley is that tech people can't imagine that everything they make isn't totally awesome for everyone else, because they can't imagine scenarios outside their own reality.*"
Are there scenarios where AI capabilities could empower humans and take us to a new level of universal thriving? Absolutely, but we need to look for independent evidence of this, rather than naively believe the assurances of a group that has been very talented at lobbying and scheming to avoid accountability.
Don't get me wrong. I would LOVE to see a "golden age" for everyone. But it's just important to remember: promises without accountability aren't worth much.
## Intentional investments or baked Alaska?
These 3 responses to AI risks present us with a choice: find ways to make intentional investments in our collective well being or just believe a "golden era" is coming and let opportunists turn the world into a hyperscaler heated oven. How ironic if Alaska's oil dividend model is used to rationalize a dismissal of AI's impact to global warming: [Alaska is already warming 2-3x the rate of the global average](https://www.climatehubs.usda.gov/hubs/northwest/topic/alaska-and-changing-climate?ref=s3t.org) and permafrost thaw is damaging critical infrastructure.
Khosla and Amodei's concepts seek to funnel a portion of AI gains into 3 investment goals:
- **Providing basic needs** for underemployed groups (which could become a majority of the population),
- **Stimulating an artisanal economy** where new forms of human creativity and entrepreneurialism become key value drivers - AI empowered humans are freed from working drudgery jobs just to survive.
- **Creating wealth funds** that give every citizen the ability to own a capital stake in the productivity gains and wealth creation that AI driven manufacturing and automation would be providing at that point.
Even with these kinds of targets, the workforce could go a couple of different directions:
- Not so good: While a few rarified (and who knows -maybe super human!) moguls use their social media platforms to [distort markets](https://www.ft.com/content/d4069188-30ca-4838-a3d3-f3c8ffe4a13b?ref=s3t.org) and [elections](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/wrong-claims-by-musk-us-election-got-2-billion-views-x-2024-report-says-2024-11-04/?ref=s3t.org) for profit, the rest of the population will be happily enrolled in a magical Montessori day care being "creative." Said Montessori is dependent on the rarified moguls for funding - and history tells us how well that will go.
- Better: Individuals earn dividends or other forms of income from AI companies, agents, robots etc - ie capital ownership is diffused enough to allow broad financial security derived from AI productivity. Individuals are highly empowered by these technologies and agents to create, build, grow ideas, products, companies more prolifically and powerfully than ever before. In addition they are able to devote generous time to caring for each other and restore/care for nature.
Getting to the 2nd scenario will take a lot of intentional learning, work and investment. The best path forward is to carefully plan with cross-disciplinary teams and heavy engagement with the people who will be impacted. In other words, figure it out together.
### Details to watch because they will predict outcomes...
- **Payroll tax policy** \- If AI creates rising unemployment, it will reduce the payroll taxes that fund Social Security thus hastening its collapse - and making it harder for other universal income schemes to work. Worth noting here that Khosla's idea may need additional homework: Payroll Taxes - which finance Social Security - are levied only on wages up to $184,500 ...if no "income tax" also means "no payroll tax" then Social Security's viability could be affected severely.
- **Immigration policy** \- if the current anti-immigration policies continue, they [will erode Social Security's viability](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/social-security-is-facing-a-political), per the Social Security's own [2026 Trustees Report](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2026/VI%5FD%5FLRsens.html?ref=s3t.org#92900).
- **Labor Compensation as a Share of Consumption** \- [This lesser known metric](https://cepr.net/publications/the-ai-bubble-consumption-is-outrunning-wages/?ref=s3t.org) provides an indicator of the fragility of the economy and risk of a bubble. Since 2021 the metric has been below historical range and declining. Continued decline raises the likelihood of a bubble burst.
[](https://cepr.net/publications/the-ai-bubble-consumption-is-outrunning-wages/?ref=s3t.org)
Courtesy of CEPR
## Time to define and hire new AI-native jobs
###
Why we will see more work but fewer jobs
It seems apparent to most that AI/Robots/Automation in general will to change the workforce equation significantly. Sharp increases in unemployment are possible, but there are other possible outcomes too.
Historically, innovations have automated and reduced *certain kinds* of work, while also enabling - and actually requiring - new forms of work.
Emerging examples already indicate that AI is causing more work - *and new kinds of work:*
- AI is creating new digital supply chains. Designing, building and maintaining these supply chains will (for some time) require solid engineering talent.
- AI is enabling new kinds of "Mashups" between different categories of technology: [Coinbase has rolled out Base MCP](https://blog.base.org/base-mcp?ref=s3t.org) a capability that allows your AI agent to connect your Base Account and perform actions on your behalf: track balances, send funds, view transaction history, swap tokens and more. TON Tech’s launch of “[Agentic Wallets](https://agents.ton.org/?ref=s3t.org)" offers similar capabilities.
- AI will often impose new requirements for porting systems from old non-AI environments and systems to AI-native platforms and ecosystems.
- AI logistics is likewise a growing category of new work. Mission critical AI requires a lot of support including world models, guardrails and other components that provide guidance to AI agents so they can function reliably in specific business domains, while adhering to the security and compliance requirements of those domains. Models require updates. Robots require maintenance.
- Security and governance is becoming more complicated. AI is difficult to predict and difficult to control. This itself will generate work and jobs. Look at the extra work AI is already generating for security teams.
- Alignment & negotiation: AI brings new capabilities and speed that corporate and government policy structures didn't anticipate and can't govern efficiently or effectively. Likewise corporate org structures and decision-making processes are ill prepared to leverage and get value from AI. There will be high demand for people who can translate/update the *intent* of old policies into the AI contexts of today, while educating and upskilling security and goverance stakeholders in newer better ways of fulfilling their responsibilities.
### Crucial opportunity: define the new AI job roles your company needs - and start hiring ASAP
Calcified corporate org structures and job families may be one of the biggest drivers of the scenario of fewer jobs but way more work. Why? Because companies historically have not been great at recognizing the emergence of new kinds of work, and likewise not quick or good at accurately defining/hiring for new job roles.
SO, companies that want first mover advantage must make it a priority to:
- Identify which of their engineers and staff are working on the front lines of new AI-enabled work
- Engage those engineers in understanding how the work is evolving, and in defining the next generation of job roles
- Quickly define those new jobs and job openings and start filling them before the rest of the market catches on.
**Change leaders that focus on this right now will give their teams a first mover advantage that will have lasting value over the next several years.**
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### The coming sticker shock: The cost to use and adopt AI is going up
URL: https://www.s3t.org/june5_2026/
Last updated: 2026-06-05T02:08:34.000Z
*As noted in the latest* [*S3T Strategic Awareness Dashboard*](https://www.s3t.org/5layers/)*, capital is still funding AI infrastructure, but scarce resources continue to impose operating constraints. Now two new forms of market friction threaten to slow AI adoption and value realization: stricter usage based pricing and emerging investment data about the true cost of successfully deploying AI.*
S3T PodCast June 4 2026
0:00
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### Top Need to Know in this Edition:
- 💸 **AI pricing is shifting from flat subscriptions to metered usage**, forcing companies to manage token budgets like a new FinOps discipline.
- 🧮 **Companies need controls to prevent waste**, including spending limits, duplicate prototype detection, and earlier identification of AI projects that are unlikely to create value.
- ⚠️ **Outcome-based AI pricing sounds simple but can be misleading**, because measurable events like “handoff completed” or “no further help requested” may not reflect actual customer satisfaction or business value.
- 🏗️ **Successful AI adoption requires organizational redesign**, not just buying tools; the cited Stanford research suggests companies may spend up to $10 on process redesign, reskilling, and transformation for every $1 spent on technology.
- 📉 **The executive takeaway: AI is an operating model decision**, and companies that treat it as a plug-in tool risk rising costs, thinner margins, and disappointing returns.
---
### Token Budgets: the new FinOps discipline
AI companies are shifting from generic subscriptions to more strict usage-based pricing, charging enterprise customers for actual metered usage vs flat generic subscriptions.
In response, leading companies that *consume* AI tokens are starting to proactively set spending limits, ie:
*Number of Developers x Agentic Coding Allowance per Developer = Total Coding Budget.*
These companies are also looking for **better ways to spot and reduce low value token use.**
This is tricky. Using a ton of tokens to create a tool or app no one is willing to pay for is an obvious no-no. But does your team have a disciplined approach for identifying flops before a critical amount of tokens have been burned?
Likewise do you have a way of preventing two teams from burning tokens to create duplicative prototypes, or chase common problems?
### Impacted next: pricing strategies for services and products
The more strict usage based pricing for tokens is also starting to impact *pricing strategies for products* \- as companies and consumers become more wary of paying for AI buzz vs actual results. [Azeem Azar has noted](https://www.exponentialview.co/p/does-pricing-shrink-or-expand-markets?ref=s3t.org) several early examples and expects this to be a new norm. For example Intercom Fin's customer support agent costs 99 cents per case handled.
But there is a layer of complication here: Fin's "[Outcome Pricing](https://www.intercom.com/pricing?ref=s3t.org)" specifies that you pay 99 cents if 1 of 2 things happens:
- "No further help is requested after the last AI answer" or
- "Fin completes a procedure designed to handoff to a human".
If you have experience with these kinds of arrangements, you'll notice right away this is a rather over-simplified framework that doesn't map to real world scenarios in customer service:
- If a frustrated customer yells "operator!" repeatedly because the AI agent is being too clumsy, it might hand off to a human agent, but should you have to pay for that??
- Likewise if a frustrated customer hangs up on an AI agent, this may qualify as a "no further help requested" scenario, but *should you have to pay for that??* Especially if the customer is now making repeat calls or trashing you on Instagram?
The fatal flaw here: This kind of pricing model doesn't address *intent of the customer or "purpose of visit".*...AI agents to this day are still not very good at fully understanding intent (though some [promising work is underway](https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.18327?ref=s3t.org)).
The maturity issue here is: when it comes to AI agents, the tasks they do that are easy to measure are not always aligned to actual value. You can see the obvious tension here between a solution provider trying to find a clean simple approach for automated micro-billing. Real life is a little too messy. Buyer beware.
Ankit Chopra [reviews several variants of the emerging "pay for outcome" models](https://www.cfo.com/news/ai-revenue-potential-roi-optimism-reality-strategy-ankit-chopra-neo4j-cfo-/753497/?ref=s3t.org) and concludes:
*"The guiding principle is that none of the individual metrics are perfect and organizations need to focus on a combination of key performance indicators that drive the most value in their specific business context."*
Aren't some companies getting their money's worth? Yes, well....
### AI adoption costs 10x the cost of AI tech
Standford's Digital Economy Lab recently published [Lessons from 51 Successful Deployments](https://digitaleconomy.stanford.edu/app/uploads/2026/03/EnterpriseAIPlaybook%5FPereiraGraylinBrynjolfsson.pdf?ref=s3t.org), a study of 51 AI adoptions deemed successful - live systems, real world workflows, consistent scaling operational use, with documented gains in productivity, growth or customer satisfaction.
The net net of this must-read:
**Effective use of AI doesn't transform companies.**
**Companies that transform themselves make effective use of AI.**
> "for every $1 of tangible tech investment, companies spend up to $10 on intangibles (process redesign, reskilling, organizational transformation), initially depressing productivity before gains are realized" - [51 Successful Deployments](https://digitaleconomy.stanford.edu/app/uploads/2026/03/EnterpriseAIPlaybook%5FPereiraGraylinBrynjolfsson.pdf?ref=s3t.org)
Put another way, in order to adopt AI in an GDP-meaningful way, companies are going to have to invest massively in - not *buying* AI - but remaking their organizations to be able to use it.
> "top performers are nearly three times more likely to fundamentally redesign workflows"
Zooming out, the AI industry as a whole needs to take a more disciplined approach to securing its future ROI, by making a deliberate shift:
- From pouring millions into talent wars and ever higher model benchmarks
- To investing in meaningful ways to help their prospective enterprise customers successfully adopt and get value from AI.
The study also found that the success stories did not seem to depend on choosing any specific "best" LLM. The fixation on having the most powerful model while still relevant for national security is not relevant for AI adoption and value realization in the private sector.
### Margin Pressure from Both Sides
At the macro level this presents a mixed set of concerns about the overall economic impact of AI. The AI cost curve is rising faster than most expected - both for adoption and for usage based pricing.
- Companies that successfully adopted AI had to invest large amounts in preparatory and change management efforts beyond just the purchase of the AI solutions themselves.
- At the same time AI solutions are shifting to stricter usage based pricing.
Together these factors threaten to leave companies with narrowing margins (and employment impacts) while exposing the AI supply chain to the prospect of deferred/reduced ROI.
The executive takeaway is blunt: **AI adoption is not a software purchase. It is an operating model decision.** Companies that treat AI as a plug-in tool may find themselves paying more while realizing less. Companies that treat AI as a catalyst for disciplined organizational redesign have a better chance of turning the technology into measurable advantage.
---
### [For Premium Members: S3T Strategic Awareness Dashboard](https://www.s3t.org/5layers/)
S3T provides a unique 5 layer framework for identifying and interpreting current strategic signals early. This week’s dashboard spotlights where physical constraints, economic data, capital flows, governance choices, pricing models, and social trust appear to be moving out of alignment.
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
---
### How many AI use cases will Quantum steal?
URL: https://www.s3t.org/how-many-ai-use-cases-will-quantum-steal/
Last updated: 2026-05-29T04:14:19.000Z
*The Quantum race is heating up - thanks to government investment*
S3T PodCast May 29 2026
0:00
/1272.1371428571429
1×
IBM made headlines this week on news it will invest $10B in Quantum to deliver large-scale fault-tolerant quantum compute by 2029\.
But IBM is not the only player in Quantum: a number of other companies are, and - unlike IBM- focused *solely* on Quantum computing. Some names to know:
- Rigetti
- Infleqtion (defense use cases)
- IonQ has a [roadmap for delivering the world's most powerful quantum computer by 2030](https://www.ionq.com/roadmap?ref=s3t.org).
### Will Quantum obsolete at least some of the agentic approaches being built today?
One Quantum company [D-Wave deployed a small scale Quantum compute powered auto-scheduler for Pattison Food Group](https://www.dwavequantum.com/media/2sof3qhz/the-pattison-food-group%5Fcase%5Fstory%5Fv8.pdf?ref=s3t.org)'s food delivery services. The solution maps out each worker's availability and preferences, then assigns drivers their weekly routes while meeting the required performance criteria.
Key point to notice: Quantum compute is being used to solve a fairly tricky optimization problem - bit of complex math there - *but in a deterministic way*.
Quick explainer: we can solve problems with probabilistic or deterministic answers:
- **Deterministic** \= absolutely provably correct, like 2+2 does actually and always equal 4.
- **Probabilistic** \= has a percent chance of being correct, is *likely* accurate but not guaranteed. When you snap a photo of a plant with the iNaturalist app, it comes back with a list of possible identifications. Note the green percent confidence numbers below each ID Suggestion:
Courtesy of iNaturalist Mobile App
So I think this is something to watch and test: will quantum computing represent a hard math-based *deterministic* approach for complex problems that previously haven't been economically viable for us to solve with the computers we had? Problems that we tended to approach via AI solutions that no matter how advanced, were still ultimately *probabilistic*, not deterministic?
And by extension, will quantum compute, when it arrives perhaps in 2029 or 30, obsolete at least some of the agentic approaches that are being designed and built today?
I don't know right now, but I think its something to watch carefully.
Photo by [Harrison Mitchell](https://unsplash.com/@harrisonmitchell?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### Why are quantum companies suddenly in the headlines?
The US Government has identified quantum computing as another national security priority - like AI. On May 21, the government announced it will take a minority stake in [9 Quantum Compute companies in exchange for grants](https://www.nist.gov/news-events/news/2026/05/department-commerce-announces-letters-intent-9-companies-2-billion?ref=s3t.org).
This effectively means **Quantum computing is now a federally backed strategic technology.** (And yes, Wall Street has taken note, there are Quantum ETFs now).
This also marks the 2nd time the federal government has in recent times *invested in companies.* Recall that last year the government took a stake in Intel.
Now you may be wondering, is this appropriate? is there some red line we should not cross? Are we becoming like China - with state controlled industries?
### Industrial policy vs state capital models
There are similarities in the support that China's government has provided to BYD, Huawei etc and the support that the US government provided for the interstate highway system, the Internet, GPS etc.
But there are some key differences that boil down to *investment vs full control.*
There are cautionary tales of what can go wrong when a powerful centralized entity exercises undue influence over investments:
- In the 1980's Japan's industrial planners (keiretsu) completely underestimated software and PCs, which caused them to miss out on the global software industry ([Fascinating long read here](https://www.disruptingjapan.com/the-forgotten-mistake-that-killed-japans-software-industry/?ref=s3t.org)).
- Europe supported telecom champions that later struggled.
- Some would argue too that China even has had some misguided investment and state-sponsored activities, probably real estate being the most notable one.
I don't think that it's necessarily bad to have an industrial policy that is focused on developing or strengthening strategically critical infrastructure. We just need some healthy boundaries.
To me the healthy boundary list should go something like this:
1. **Clear statutory authority from Congress**, not ad hoc executive bargaining.
2. **Minority, non-controlling stakes only**, unless Congress were to explicitly authorize some kind of a crisis rescue. No board seats, no management control, no CEO pressure.
3. **Transparent terms**, including valuation, warrants, voting rights, exit plan, and public-interest obligations.
4. **Investments should be based on strategic aims**, not political favoritism: try to fund multiple competing firms, not one national champion.
5. **Sunset/exit paths**, so the government is not a permanent industrial owner.
Guardrails like this can help us avoid drifting into scenarios where:
- the government is choosing the winners rather than making investments and letting the winners distinguish themselves.
- companies become more politically focused vs customer focused
- lobbying matters more than true innovation
The increase in government investment in corporations raises important questions: *Will this turn out to be the U.S. building a temporary strategic response to a perceived competitive threat? Or are we quietly normalizing a new permanent marriage between government and large corporations, which might not be so healthy?*
I think this will be very important to watch, develop our thinking and communicate our perspectives with our elected representatives and the agencies they oversee.
That's going to do it for this week! Hope you have a great weekend and a great week ahead!
---
### Be sure to check out and take advantage of the S3T Playbooks:
- [Spend Wisely in a Hype-Driven World](https://www.s3t.org/spendwisely/)
- [Gaining Buy-in for Data Modernization](https://www.s3t.org/s3t-playbook-data-modernization/)
- [Flipping the Script: Understanding and Changing Internal & Macro Narratives](https://www.s3t.org/changing-internal-and-macro-narratives/)
- [Shift to effective gatekeeping in the age of generative AI](https://www.s3t.org/genai-supervisory-workloads/)
- [How to Stop Zombie Projects from Sapping your Focus and Resources](https://www.s3t.org/stop-zombie-projects/)
- [Harmonize Different Kinds of Expertise to Achieve Success](https://www.s3t.org/harmonize-expertise/)
- [Addressing issues related to uneven accountability](https://www.s3t.org/disabling-accountability-shields/)
- [Validating AI use cases](https://www.s3t.org/validating-ai-use-cases/)
- [6 Proven Ways to Resolve Conflicts](https://www.s3t.org/6-ways-to-resolve-conflicts/)
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### AI is changing the work life balance equation
URL: https://www.s3t.org/untitled-5/
Last updated: 2026-05-22T05:28:14.000Z
*Work-life balance was always complicated for some of us. Today it is for just about everyone.*
S3T PodCast May 22 2026
0:00
/1267.6963265306122
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### The changing equation of work-life balance
Work-life balance was always complicated for some of us. Today it's getting more complicated for just about everyone. Think about what we have to do:
- Manage ongoing work as well as the engagement and morale of direct reports, navigating relentless change and uncertainty vs. inertia of lagging org structures and policies.
- Spoonfeed an ever growing host of "AI workers" - Copilot, Claude, ChatGPT and the like - who aside from occasional moments of brilliance, can be pretty hit or miss.
C-suites feel urgency about rearchitecting their orgs into learning machines, but for middle managers its challenging to keep teams highly engaged in a "solve for the mission" mindset while increasing amounts of attention are drawn to AI "team members" that are incapable of having a sense of mission or creative problem solving.
Microsoft's [Work Trend Index](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/worklab/work-trend-index/agents-human-agency-and-the-opportunity-for-every-organization?ref=s3t.org) for 2026 is worth a read, but also illustrates the challenge. It starts with wonderful words scrolling over colorful shapes suggesting great possibilities....
my agency is expanding...ok....
Capture what?
This paragraph clarifies..sort of
Yes agents are certainly doing more execution. But how much of it is useful - and how much of it needs to be redone? Swept under the rug is the fact that anyone who uses AI agents is now working two jobs:
- Doing the work of your job at your company
- Performing testing and quality control for Microsoft, Anthropic, OpenAI etc. (and ironically we pay *them*...).
Babysitting agents and sending feedback on their errors takes time. Example from just this week: I ask for a specific technical diagram on a slide. I give it all the details I'd give an architect or engineer.
But what do I get? I get several slides that have a bunch of photos decorated with big fonts that say things like "Technical Diagram" and "Architecture". One slide spells out a generic 3 step process for creating a diagram.
I send feedback to the company that developed this AI Agent.
You might argue this entire loop of work should have been performed by *their team*, not me.
Even when AI tools work well, there is still a significant time commitment required from the humans using and managing those agents. [Microsoft's study](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/worklab/work-trend-index/agents-human-agency-and-the-opportunity-for-every-organization?ref=s3t.org) uses the term "Frontier Professionals" to describe individuals who are getting the most value from the AI tools. Consider their work patterns:
- 86% treat AI output as a starting point, not the final answer
- 43% intentionally do some work without AI to keep their skills sharp
- 53% pause before starting work to decide what should be done by AI versus a human
In addition they noted quality control of AI output as a significant responsibility.
**All of which is making work-life balance a bit more complicated.** To be clear this is not to say we should abandon AI tools. But learning how and where to use them effectively does require us to **rethink work life balance, and reset our expectations.**
*It can be especially* challenging *for those striving to establish their careers and establish financial stability. It certainly was for me in my younger years when I was getting started.*
Photo by [Benjamin Davies](https://unsplash.com/@bendavisual?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### Reflections from my own journey
**Many people underestimate the effort required to move from one economic level to another.** As a kid, coming from a rural, low-income background, I had no concept of anything beyond manual labor. When I moved to DC, I was fortunate to land an office job, an amazing step for me. To earn more, I took a side job delivering newspapers to all the DC metro stations every night. Each Sun-Fri night I spent 11 PM to 6:30 AM driving around DC, putting papers in the newspaper machines. I'd drive back across the Potomac, changing clothes in restaurant in Springfield, VA, then catch a ride back into DC to start my office job by 8 AM. I worked until 5 PM, went home to rest for a few hours, and then started the cycle again. This lasted for three months. It gave me extra income (I was saving for my wedding) and boosted my confidence in my capacity for hard work.
A few months later I stumbled into a job that placed me at the center of emerging tech, and gave me a sustained opportunity to increase my skills at an accelerated pace. Over the next \~10 years, I worked 100+ hours a week, with frequent all-nighters and occasional 36hr or longer stretches. 5AM to 1AM was a typical day.
The punchline: My economic situation improved, but one afternoon, I drove myself to the ER, thinking the chest pains and breathing difficulty was a heart attack. It wasn't, but the doctors advised immediate lifestyle changes.
Here are the adjustments I made:
- Reconnecting with Art: I made time to draw and paint, rekindling a passion I had set aside due to its perceived low earning potential.
- Financial Literacy: I started focusing more on learning about capital and investing rather than continuing to focus on raw earning power. Even small amounts saved and invested can make a significant difference over time.
- Health: I began running, surfing and working out regularly.
- Being more selective: I started being more selective about what projects and opportunities I engaged with. I learned how to recognize and opt out of situations where I'd have to spend valuable time waiting for management teams to play through their mistakes. I also learned to judge opportunities in light of *today's responsibilities vs tomorrow's relevance*: will this just bury me in today's responsibilities? Or will it prepare me for tomorrow's relevance?
- **Starting to think of a portion of my time as *learning time.* *Time spent working on and learning things that didn't have immediate*** application*, but could in the future.*
Photo by [Lv Bowen](https://unsplash.com/@reborn0522?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### Factors that played into my journey toward work life balance
- **Economic Inequity:** Our highly inequitable economic environment means that those in lower economic strata often have to be either extremely lucky or work extremely hard, as I did, to achieve any degree of financial stability. Work life balance isn't really in the cards at that point. My experience happened back in the 1990s, but today I continuously hear from younger people and recent grads facing the same challenge.
- **Emerging Technology:** Entering the emerging technology sector was a game-changer for me. It's one part of the economy that consistently offers expanding opportunities. Investors and corporate financial stewards are generally more willing to invest in emerging technology due to its potential for increased capability and empowerment, unlike many other professions, whose work is often seen as costs to be downsized.
- **Life has chapters.** You most likely have the capacity to work insane amounts of hours for some period of time. And you may need to in a specific chapter of your life. If there's a clear opportunity with reasonable assurance of advancing to the next level, it can be worth considering. However, it's crucial to balance this with your overall life and health *and a consideration of what chapter of life you are in*: I was young and healthy, with no kids or pets. My spouse was also a go getter. Not every chapter of life offers that kind of setting. Later on in my life there were other chapters where I did have kids and was spending significantly more time taking them camping, taking them to doctor appointments, soccer, swim team, Tai Kwon Do etc.
- **Share the Skills.** Knowing all this should make us want to help each other and share knowledge as much as we can. I had many people who shared knowledge and resources, made introductions, or took time to talk me through things that I didn’t understand. Without them, I would probably be in a very different place today. They didn’t know it but they were giving me crucial stepping stones that helped me learn and move forward in crucial times in my life. If you take a few minutes to stop and help someone or point them in the right direction, you never know how crucial that is for their journey. As we'll see further below...it's not really work-life balance...it's more like work-life-learning balance. The *learning* aspect is key.
- **Share the workloads.** As noted above life has chapters where we may be more focused on one thing than something else. In the early phase of my career I had a freedom to work really long hours on multiple projects and ventures. There were phases later where I had to time box my work in more disciplined ways so that I was making time for my family and health. Now that my kids are adults, I have chunks of time available that used to be reserved for after school activities, homework etc. Key point: *different people have different capacities for long hours / working after hours / weekends depending on what phase of life they are in.*
- If you have the freedom to work insane hours, **just know there will come a time when you can’t.** You’ll have to learn to use your time more intentionally. And you'll have to rely on others.
- And...be careful of the "some people aren't carrying their weight" kind of thinking. It’s good karma if you help cover for those who are juggling work alongside care for small kids or aging parents. Your time will come and you’ll be glad to have people doing the same for you.
### Today's Responsibilities vs Tomorrow's Relevance
For a growing number of professionals, evenings and weekends are no longer just about catching up on work: its more about juggling current responsibilities and tomorrow’s relevance. This means spending extra time learning new agent frameworks and toolkits, experimenting with AI, building small automations...trying to apply them to getting current work done faster better, while preserving focus and staying competitive.
What often gets lost in the excitement is that **this process is messy**. It involves a lot of trial and error, frustration, and incremental learning. Just realize: the glowing stories you see social media come from heavily funded technology companies where employees may have dedicated time to experiment and fewer day-to-day operational demands. For the average person balancing meetings, deadlines, family obligations, and real-world responsibilities, adopting AI is far less glamorous. It is slow going, riddled with setbacks, and deeply hands-on. And there just isn't enough useful training or mentoring to help you out.
These realities matter: **people should give themselves and each other some grace.** If your experiments with new tools are not immediately transformative, that does not mean you are behind or incapable. We are all learning to navigate a major shift in how work gets done.
Photo by [Quino Al](https://unsplash.com/@quinoal?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### Your takeaways
Its not about work-life balance anymore. It's about *work-life-learning balance*. And doing it together. Look at your team and partners and colleagues and realize, you're all going thru this together. So help each other learn and get the work done. It makes the load lighter, and makes things more doable.
The [Microsoft study mentioned above](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/worklab/work-trend-index/agents-human-agency-and-the-opportunity-for-every-organization?ref=s3t.org) notes that "organizations are turning into Learning Systems - because the companies that learn the fastest from their own work will be the ones that win." I agree...and it underscores the need to learn as a team.
Different chapters of life demand different tradeoffs, and different people have different capacities at different times. The goal is not perfection and it's certainly not trying to make your work match the hype and buzz in the headlines.
Your and my goal should be steady progress — **daily investments in self, family, work, and learning** enough to remain capable, healthy, and adaptable while still protecting the relationships, health, and meaning *that make the work worthwhile*.
---
### Recommended Reading
[Microsoft 2026 Work Trend Index Annual Report](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/worklab/work-trend-index/agents-human-agency-and-the-opportunity-for-every-organization?ref=s3t.org) \- shares input from and spotlights the need for firms to build new operating models that enable rapid learning and conversion to value.
[HBR's latest on the 4 Day Work Week](https://hbr.org/2026/04/whats-stopping-the-4-day-workweek?ref=s3t.org). This piece argues that more firms should consider a 4 day work week, but reveals half way thru that in practical terms this basically amounts to limiting meetings to 4 days a week and may not truly reduce overall work time required to keep up.
[Gallup State of Employee Engagement](https://www.gallup.com/workplace/708071/global-employee-engagement-continues-decline.aspx?ref=s3t.org). Employee engagement continues to decline, especially among managers, as leadership teams fumble org flattening & responsibility scoping.
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### May 15 - Smart money is quietly changing its strategy
URL: https://www.s3t.org/may-15-smart-money-is-quietly-changing-its-strategy/
Last updated: 2026-05-15T21:00:01.000Z
---
## 3 Key Signals This Week
### *This week we look at several key signals that showed up in data, tech and financial developments. We then extract insights about what these signals mean for us and our strategies and how we can focus our actions and skill building for best advantages in the months ahead.*
S3T PodCast May 15 2026
0:00
/734.1714285714286
1×
###
### 1\. AI Compute becomes a commodity...
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange announced plans to [launch futures tied to AI compute markets and GPU rental pricing](https://www.cmegroup.com/media-room/press-releases/2026/5/12/cme%5Fgroup%5Fand%5Fsilicondatapartnertolaunchfirstcomputefutures.html?ref=s3t.org). This is a first. And a meaningful shift.
**"As the backbone of the digital economy, compute is the new oil of the 21st century"* \-CME Chair & CEO Terry Duffy.
It suggests that compute infrastructure is evolving from a technical resource into something markets may increasingly treat like oil, electricity, or freight capacity. Something that you can trade.
This signal is part of a set of signals that hint at increasing *volatility*.
### 2\. Productivity Narratives
The Economist says [America is experiencing a productivity miracle](https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/05/11/america-is-experiencing-a-productivity-miracle?ref=s3t.org) but doesn't really explain what is driving this "miracle" other than to point out (correctly) that it's not AI.
Cloud adoption, automation and post-Covid restructuring have increased productivity, but the biggest and most direct driver of productivity gains?
Layoffs.
As noted in the [Challenger Report for May](https://www.challengergray.com/blog/challenger-report-april-job-cuts-rise-38-from-march-ytd-cuts-down-50/?ref=s3t.org), layoffs were up 38% in April. 2025 was a big year for layoffs and 2026 could be similar.
Productivity is output divided by labor hours worked. After layoffs the remaining workers absorb the remaining work and measured output per worker rises. Key point: Rising productivity stats shouldn't be celebrated in a vacuum. On its own it does not mean good things for our changing economy.
### 3\. More confirmation of permanently higher inflation
The US Government is on a long trend of increasing deficits. Note the blue line trending sharply downward in the CBO chart below. Contrast also the red bars (deficit as percent of GDP) from 2022-2035 vs the same in early deficits (75-80, 83-90, 92-2000, 2009-2014). In earlier eras deficits as percent of GDP are steadily reduced. Since 2022, deficits as a percent of GDP have stayed in the 5-6% range.
[Havre Analytics](https://www.haver.com/articles/inflation-debt-default-by-another-name?ref=s3t.org)
As shown in the chart above, the latest Congressional Budget Office data signals *permanently higher inflation*, as the US government navigates the consequences of [shifting its tax burden away from corporations onto individuals](https://www.s3t.org/taxes/)...literally seeking more and more of its tax income from the portion of the economy that has the least money.
---
## Implications: What kinds of strategies are emerging as different groups absorb these signals?
### Sophisticated capital positions defensively
Berkshire Hathaway [expanded stakes in Japanese trading houses](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/berkshire-hathaway-raises-japan-bet-180500728.html?ref=s3t.org) while simultaneously holding [historically large cash reserves](https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/2026050426/berkshire-hathaway-is-now-sitting-on-a-record-397-billion-in-cash-and-its-not-the-only-firm-reluctant-to-invest-in-the-stock-market?ref=s3t.org). This is not the behavior of markets expecting continued growth.
This combination suggests a desire to:
- Be ready for a severe market correction, and
- Diversify into regional trade infrastructure.
### Realtors anticipate a migration driven by cost and climate
This household expenses data from the Common Sense Institute in AZ is an interesting overlay to climate suitability projections for the US.
[Visual Capitalist](https://www.visualcapitalist.com/where-americans-have-the-most-money-left-after-expenses/?ref=s3t.org)
The image above shows the percent of income households are able to keep after expenses. But this is only one driver of a likely migration that will have big consequences for both real estate and farming/food production.
The images below show various views of [climate suitability projections based on a mix of data sets](https://projects.propublica.org/climate-migration/?ref=s3t.org) and the likely climate migration that will happen in the US as a result.
First, average heat projections \~2040-2070:
Wildfires per year:
Then this interesting view of crop yields 2040-2060\. The purple areas will see declines in crop yields while the green will see increases.
There are other views in [this same report](https://projects.propublica.org/climate-migration/?ref=s3t.org), including coastal flooding zones.
Taken together, there is a shrinking area of *suitability* for both farming and general living in the US. The image below shows the approximate most-suitable zone: the green region represents the area least impacted by climate change issues: hurricanes, coastal flooding, wildfires, and heat.
Realtors have picked up on this and are marketing "climate resilience" as a factor in choice of where to buy a home. Here is just one example: [Fast Expert's 2026 Climate Migration Map: Best States to Buy for Long-Term Resilience](https://www.fastexpert.com/blog/climate-migration-map-best-states-to-buy-for-long-term-resilience/?ref=s3t.org).
---
### Attention continues to accrue to post-fiat capital
The Clarity Act [advanced in the Senate this week with bipartisan support](https://www.banking.senate.gov/newsroom/majority/chairman-scott-senate-banking-committee-advance-clarity-act-in-historic-bipartisan-vote?ref=s3t.org).
**"We had a serious debate, worked through real differences, and came together around a shared goal: protecting consumers, supporting innovation, and keeping the future of finance in America...For me, this is personal. My mother raised my brother and me with faith, grit, and determination, and she taught me that the American Dream should be within reach for every family, including single mothers working hard to build a better life for their children."* \- Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott
The legislation finally provides clarity on who governs digital assets (CFTC) vs digital securities (SEC) and sets the stage for more organized adoption and use of these new technology-based financial instruments.
From a bigger picture perspective - this legislation is one part of a broader search: **Smart money is on the hunt for capital / forms of wealth that are not as vulnerable to inflation as government-issued currencies (so called fiat currencies).**
This search is becoming a stronger and stronger trend: from the original Bitcoin maverick investors, to the institutional investors adopting crypto today, to the steady march of government legislation and innovation in digital finance. It all amounts to a search for financial stability. We need to make sure this path is clear, and open to everyone. Help everyone take step up from being solely reliant on inflation eroded wages, to also owning capital. And forms of capital that are best suited to outpace inflation.
Helping everyone gain financial literacy and empowerment helps the economy move past *volatility based speculation* to *value based creation*. The difference:
- volatility based speculation creates value *only for those on the right side of information asymmetries*
- value based creation creates value for *everyone*.
In the S3T frameworks and essays we talk about the concept of a "Wealthy World"...which if you think about it would be the smartest move of all. What we've outlined here is one of the key paths to moving toward that kind of wealthy world outcome.
---
## How to explore and find your paths to resilience and thriving:
- Executives: Evaluate hidden infrastructure dependencies inside your AI and digital transformation plans.
- Investors: Watch energy, compute markets, logistics systems, and infrastructure ownership — not just software narratives.
- Professionals: Develop skills that combine technical literacy with systems thinking, communication, adaptation, and strategic awareness.
- Thought Leaders: Focus on helping people interpret change calmly and clearly rather than amplifying fear or hype.
---
## Skills To Develop
- Systems thinking
- Strategic awareness
- AI workflow integration
- Energy and infrastructure literacy
- Narrative analysis
- Cross-disciplinary communication
- Operational resilience planning
- Financial and macroeconomic literacy
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### Waves of advice for self-care
URL: https://www.s3t.org/waves-of-advice-for-self-care/
Last updated: 2026-05-08T03:37:41.000Z
*When we look outward at the rapid changes and rising risk levels of the world, we are also - even if we don't realize it - always looking inward*
S3T PodCast May 8, 2026
0:00
/729.730612244898
1×
I'm no shrink. But as I've listened to how leaders from different contexts have learned to take care of themselves, I've noticed an evolution. This evolution is evident in my own journey - looking back on my younger years at my own starting points for self-awareness (not great) and self care (pretty harsh on myself and others), and comparing them to what I think and do now.
As described in past S3T explainers like [Flip the Script](https://www.s3t.org/changing-internal-and-macro-narratives/), narratives are powerful. Whether these are internal narratives running in our own thoughts, or narratives believed by an entire industry, we can improve the quality of our decisions, investments and life-success by noticing and evaluating the narratives that are influencing our thoughts and actions.
### Why this matters now: looking outward = looking inward
When we look outward at the rapid changes and rising risk levels of the world, we are also - even if we don't realize it - always looking *inward* and making projections:
- what we think will happen to us, where that will leave us, and
- what it will mean about our worth, or intelligence, or future prospects.
It is very hard to separate the outward observation from inward projections about our needs and how they will or will not be met. These inner narratives enable or interfere with clear thinking and decision-making. So it is important to identify them and respond to them.
The following perspectives are not clinical advice: they are informed by conversations with professionals and personal observations. Think of them as a reflection on how we find the balance between coddling ourselves and avoiding challenges vs. holding ourselves to harsh unrealistic expectations that don't offer constructive paths of learning.
### Learning to Dialogue with Yourself: Your Journey to Positive Self-Understanding and Growth
Over the years, the concept of self-care, as explored through therapy, counseling, and other mental health efforts, has evolved significantly. This evolution seems to have occurred in 4 waves of advice, each bringing a useful and different way of understanding ourselves and managing our inner dialogue.
I hope these thoughts on waves of self care I've observed over the years, can offer a path for continuing to learn about ourselves.
#### Wave 1: Ignore the Negative Voice
This was the first wave of advice I absorbed in my younger years. I remember someone said "Whenever you set out to do something you're going to have this little voice in your head saying 'you can't do it' or 'you don't deserve it'."
Their point was, when you hear a voice of negativity or fear within yourself, you have to just ignore it, and keep working hard and moving forward.
This was the self-help era, and for me and probably many others it was empowering to reduce everything to a choice of action over inaction. However, as time went on, I think we started learning that ignoring a part of ourselves can backfire and might not be the healthiest long-term solution.
#### Wave 2: Acknowledge the Voice
The next wave of advice shifted towards acknowledging the narratives of negativity or fear. Instead of suppressing them, this approach encouraged us to recognize and validate our feelings. Doing this opens the door to self-compassion and curiosity. This wave invited us to explore the origins of our fears, which often lead to realizations about past traumas or experiences that shaped our inner narratives and outlook on life. For many this kind of introspection gave them a significant step forward, helping connect the dots between their past and present emotions.
#### Wave 3: Respond to the Voice
The third wave goes beyond mere acknowledgment to a constructive dialogue. It suggests that we should engage our inner narratives in a compassionate yet assertive way: "OK I realize I feel this way because of this past event (of failure, humiliation, feeling unsafe, etc), but I'm not in that same position anymore (because I've learned, or I'm in a different place now etc)." When faced with thoughts of inadequacy, one may respond by affirming their strengths and reminding themselves of their worth. This approach recognizes that the narrative and its feelings are part of us, and stem from our own past experiences, but we remain in control of how we respond and what we choose to believe.
#### Wave 4: Refine and Tune the Voice
This fourth wave is kind of where I see myself and others starting to learn - taking self-dialogue to a level where we not only respond to our inner voice but also refine it— like tuning a radar. Our brains pick up signals and translate them into narratives because they're designed to protect us. This approach recognizes that fact, and then seeks to harness it for our benefit. If we set clear criteria for what we allow our inner voice to focus on. Whether through writing or thought processes, the spirit of this approach is "I'm glad you're alert to these kinds of concerns, what I specifically want to be on the lookout for is \_\_\_\_\_."
For instance, instead of letting the voice amplify baseless fears, we can direct it to alert us to genuine risks, such as being overly trusting in a new partnership or missing subtle cues from key stakeholders.
By consciously tuning our "intuitive radar," we can better navigate complex situations, enhancing our self-awareness and intuitive decision-making.
### Embracing the Journey
As we move through these waves of self-understanding, the key is to remain open to growth. Each wave builds on the previous one, offering new tools to dialogue with ourselves in a more positive, compassionate, and constructive way. By refining our inner voice, we not only learn more about ourselves but also sharpen our intuitive powers, enabling us to respond to the world around us with greater clarity and confidence.
In essence, the journey of learning to dialogue with yourself is about transforming an often critical inner voice into a source of wisdom and guidance. It’s about recognizing that while our fears and doubts may have roots in the past, we have the power to shape our present and future. By engaging with ourselves in this way, we can turn our inner dialogue into a force for personal growth and self-discovery.
I hope you find this helpful as you navigate the work and decisions of your coming week!
Ralph
### Get ready for the age of AI: go into the woods...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/get-ready-for-the-age-of-ai-go-into-the-woods/
Last updated: 2026-05-02T14:56:11.000Z
*They say we are moving towards a new era where systems thinking will be a very critical skill. Agree, but the key question: where do you learn the very best systems thinking?*
S3T PodCast May 2 2026
0:00
/908.0424489795919
1×
### What is Systems Thinking and Why Now?
Thanks to cloud technologies and software driven supply chains, the world is much more connected and more reliant on collections of systems that are harder and harder to opt out of.
What shows up on your phone, what shows up at your local grocery store all depend on *systems* comprised of supply chains, data pipelines, financial flows and policy frameworks. In times past, one could choose to be less integrated and less dependent on these systems. That’s harder now.
Photo by [Shawn](https://unsplash.com/@shawnanggg?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
Today, *all* of us participate in and are impacted by these systems. In our work, we help design, build, operate or track some part of these systems. We depend on and consume the goods and services these systems produce. So it **is more important than ever that these systems be *intelligent*.** Not in the AI buzzword type of way. Intelligent as in smart, effective, resilient. Not sloppy, unreliable and ridden with side effects. In other words better than what we have today. Way better.
- Better than today's brand of social media that drives doomscrolling and depression
- Better than today's technology systems that lock companies into technical debt and make it harder and harder over time for them to stay relevant.
- Better than today's financial systems that divert capital flows into an enchanted welfare state for billionaires while forcing the rest of the world to run on a dried up form of capitalism.
- Better than today's healthcare system that functions as a flywheel for medical debt, physician burnout and poor health outcomes.
- Better than today's economic tracking systems composed of fairly useless averages that seemed designed to keep the comfortable comforted and the uncomfortable quiet.
We could keep going and this could be a very long list.
Photo by [Lerone Pieters](https://unsplash.com/@leronep?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
As the world accelerates, becomes more crowded and complex, the systems we design and depend on **will need to step up.** This applies to the micro-systems we design and build: applications or business solutions. But it especially applies to the *macro-systems* we are building: systems that train, power and control AI, global finance and digital currency networks, media & communication platforms, industry supply chains, energy grids, automated transportation systems, and national systems of democratic representation and policymaking.
It also applies to *the way* we design and build. Consider how the time between initial prototype and mass rollout has contracted:
- A decade or more for airplanes and cars
- Less than 1 year for Generative AI
As time to market shrinks, we lose the "buffer zone" where early-stage failures teach us how to understand and manage the risks factors of a new innovation. We are now in an era of **live-fire innovation**, where *the implementation is the experiment*. Under these conditions, the value of any potential innovation has a high likelihood of being severely degraded by unforeseen side effects.
All of this means that human designed systems need to move to a new level of performance that is well beyond the level of today's systems which are -and it's important to acknowledge this: imposing unacceptable levels of risk, and are *not* ready to sustain us in the future.
To get to the next level of competency in system design we will need better benchmarks and higher standards to ensure we are creating intelligent systems, and following the most intelligent patterns and the most intelligent sources of insight when we design and build.
### Where to learn about high performance systems
This raises the question: Where could we find a collection of highly intelligent systems that we could learn from?
The answer:
You’re actually immersed in one. It is the largest most comprehensive collection of high performance systems in the known universe. It offers a vast library of largely untapped patterns and insights for system designers and builders.
Photo by [David Clode](https://unsplash.com/@davidclode?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
Consider just a few random selections...
- Dragonfly wings and flight mechanisms
- Migratory bird navigation capabilities
- Plant reproductive systems
- Mammalian nervous systems
- The way shells grow
- Photosynthesis
- Coral reefs
...from the endless list of rich sources of expertise for solving design problems and engineering *truly* elegant systems. Vastly superior to the comparatively clumsy error prone feats of human engineering we may hold in high regard.
The systems of Nature that operate inside the boundaries of our Planet represent the absolute *pinnacle of performance and durability*. No other system or collection of systems has made so many successful intelligent adjustments, or enabled the surviving and thriving of so many participants. No other system has more harmony and resilience.
Photo by [Dylan Shaw](https://unsplash.com/@dylanshaw?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
When confronted with the poor performance of our own handiwork, we like to blame complexity. Nature is far more complex than anything we've ever designed, yet more functional and resilient than anything we've ever built.
The working mechanisms of nature offer a vast set of things we have barely explored. In [*The Nature Principle*](https://www.thriftbooks.com/w/the-nature-principle%5Frichard-louv/303405/item/6384302/?utm%5Fsource=google&utm%5Fmedium=cpc&utm%5Fcampaign=pmax%5Fnon%5Fscarce%5Fused%5Fnca%5F22292660096&utm%5Fadgroup=&utm%5Fterm=&utm%5Fcontent=&gad%5Fsource=1&gad%5Fcampaignid=22296401182&gbraid=0AAAAADwY45gRqJdTrJeWk9Nq6efJWpE3t&gclid=CjwKCAjwwdbPBhBgEiwAxBRA4V%5FmmY9wuSC%5F6jwfZoGvdztsTWLNmIIQGck%5Fyxk72MD3xsiTQcNfsxoCsMIQAvD%5FBwE#idiq=6384302&edition=5809282), Richard Louv identifies a "nature deficit disorder" that is impacting human creativity and mental acuity. We have only begun to apply ourselves to understanding nature's systems - and it shows in the flaws that plague our systems.
Photo by [Jacek Dylag](https://unsplash.com/@dylu?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
In the few cases where we have thoughtfully applied lessons from nature, the results have been powerful. The TCP/IP Architecture that enables the Internet is a decentralized, self-healing communication system that incorporates patterns we see in nature's systems:
- Redundant pathways
- Local decision-making
- Modular evolution.
Notably the Internet was designed to be evolution-ready: its key component types (data, models, interfaces, governance) are organized in separate layers that allow each to adapt and evolve independently.
This should give us hope.
Photo by [Rolands Varsbergs](https://unsplash.com/@rolandsvarsbergs?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
If we are willing to reset our expectations, redefine what "good" means, and level up - we can study nature more seriously and learn to design and sustain systems that support a level of living and thriving far above what we have been able to do so far. This means going beyond the traditional way we've organized learning:
- Engineering = learn how humans have designed and built things so you can create something that humans can depend on!
- Biology = learn how humans have cataloged what they've explored in nature so you can recite fascinating facts about nature!
Instead, it should be more like:
- Shift our mindsets to see Nature as a collection of systems that provide services rather than simply a basket of commodities waiting to the plundered.
- Learn how nature solves problems and sustains systems based on resilient solutions and services over time, and does so in spite of constantly changing conditions and challenges.
- Update our inventories of design patterns to include a more complete coverage of the system design patterns used in Nature.
- Use this understanding of Nature's patterns to attain a higher degree of proficiency in creating systems that enable human thriving in the 21st century.
Let's broaden our horizons so we study not just how *humans* have managed risk and solved design challenges, but also how *Nature* has been solving bigger more complex problems for eons.
Photo by [Zaynal Abedin](https://unsplash.com/@imzaynal?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### A lesson from Hawaii
Olin Lagon offers a powerful example of how humans can learn from and work with Nature. A thoughtful entrepreneur who blends technical insight with a deep respect for nature’s resilience and the inherited wisdom of prior generations, Olin noticed something key in the wake of the recent floods that impacted Hawaii:
*“I wish you could all see what I have seen. Amidst all of the devastation from the recent monsoons, the loʻi — traditional Hawaiian irrigated terraces — held. I went this afternoon to weed whack a bit and peek at things. There is almost no evidence this entire area suffered from what certainly was the worst flooding in my lifetime. None of the kalo (taro plants) seem to have been impacted. At all.*
*Our kūpuna — our ancestors and elders — were so in tune with aloha ʻāina - that deep love and stewardship of the land. These loʻi were everywhere, and they had the capacity to hold billions of gallons of rain in their cell structures. As we paved over loʻi and converted farms to homes and buildings, we lost these buffers. We squandered a priceless inheritance of ancestral intelligence. It is not too late to earn it back!”*
Olin's observation offers a glimpse into the ways ancestral generations learned from nature and worked with nature to manage risks far more effectively than we do today.
### If you want to be sharp and ready for the age of AI, go into the woods.
If you want to find the cleverest, most durable solutions to the trickiest problems of the 21st century, and most importantly if you want to innovate without creating bigger messes, here is your ace: go study Nature.
One excellent starting point: [AskNature.org](https://asknature.org/?ref=s3t.org) curates a catalog of design patterns and strategies found in Nature.
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### Is the world just one black swan event after the other?
URL: https://www.s3t.org/is-the-world-just-one-black-swan-event-after-the-other/
Last updated: 2026-04-24T12:05:09.000Z
*The tech and economic drivers of anxiety*
S3T PodCast April 24, 2026
0:00
/1408.8620408163265
1×
### Guess what was the fastest growing company last year?
Grow Therapy - a platform that helps people find a therapist - was ranked #1 on the Financial Times 2026 "Fastest Growing Companies" with a 455% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). As [Ellen Blix notes here](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/ellen-blix%5Four-portfolio-company-grow-therapy-just-activity-7449463937202556928-y66U/?ref=s3t.org) "demand for mental health services is structurally outpacing supply."
Is there any better proof that people are stressed?
There’s just been this constant “alarm” mode… across podcasts, social media, news. Algorithm driven tech platforms make everything feel urgent, like it's at a breaking point, or a point of no return. People just get worn down by that. Exhausted. But is that really the case? One black swan event after the other?
### Black Swans in huge flocks?
David Canellis - who recently took over from NLW at the Breakdown podcast - pointed this out from a different angle - just how doom-triggered society has become. If you have a minute, listen to the segment on a new Polymarket Trading Bot *that trades No* on every prediction ([this Breakdown episode - start at 9:34](https://open.spotify.com/episode/1574EJfovPcfUxJf62gG4C?ref=s3t.org)). It's called the "Nothing Ever Happens" Bot.
(Quick explainer: Polymarket runs a prediction market that allows you to bet on a range of things from sports, to economic or political events or outcomes. My mention of it here is *not* intended as an endorsement of online gambling - as you'll see....)
This "Nothing Ever Happens" bot bets "No" on every non-sports prediction...so questions like "will there be a nuclear attack", or "will AI destroy all jobs by Christmas" etc. all the typical morbid doomsday questions. This automatic trading bot just bets "Nope won't happen."
The bot was developed by former Apple researcher Sterling Crispin after noticing that [73.4% of Polymarket non-sports predictions always resolve to NO](https://x.com/BlockFlow%5FNews/status/2043605956869894359?ref=s3t.org)!
[BlockFlow News](https://x.com/BlockFlow%5FNews/status/2043605956869894359?ref=s3t.org)
Think about that...3/4 of the predictions didn't happen. The people who gambled that it *would* happen were wrong most of the time.
In other words, even in a structured market where people are able to articulate their worries with enough conviction to bet money on them, *even then* it turns out that the vast majority of these outcomes don't materialize.
I think we've aways suspected we are wired for negativity. Part of our survival mechanisms. Our brains are wired to notice threats, and interpret early signals as possible threats, but this adds some interesting new math.
Personally I avoid online gambling. But this is an interesting illustration of the choice we have in our outlook. In your daily focus, when you look out at the possible outcomes are you betting yes or no?
Your answer may depend on what you're doing with your phone...
### 2 Worlds: Phone Up vs. Phone Down
Today's tech platforms shape a communication environment (aka your phone) that bombards us with more signals and messages in a day than our previous generations may have received in a month. And these messages overwhelmingly seem designed to trigger anxiety.
Have you noticed the difference between what the world looks like when you're scrolling on your phone vs. what it looks like when you put your phone down and interact with people and nature?
Personally, I have.
This week an Uber driver from [Eritrea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eritrea?ref=s3t.org) told me America is such a wonderful place because he and his community have been able to build their own community and preserve their own identity here in ways that he doesn't doesn't think would be possible in other countries. He said, "we forget how special this place is." What! I thought America had become an immigrant hating corporate machine forcing everyone to conform to 1950s "values". That's what Facebook tells me.
This is not to say there are no concerns. This is not a call for ignoring the bad things happening. And I don't believe that people want to check out or ignore what’s going on in the world.
It’s more that they’re looking for a different kind of voice. A way to have clarity about what is happening and what is actionable. A calm level-headed voice that's maybe been around long enough to have seen a few cycles—innovation waves, economic shifts, all of that—and can bring a little perspective to it.
Key Point: **Algorithms designed for engagement tell us things that keep us engaged...not necessarily things that give us useful insights.**
There is an opportunity space for players who are committed to "useful insights" and whose business model doesn't require them to bombard people with alarmism just to drive engagement. This is not a call for blind optimism. Not denial. Just thoughtful. Grounded. Reassuring, with an emphasis on where to focus and what to do.
This is far better than non-stop alarms about crises, but with no clear sense of what to do. It builds up a state of helpless anxiety, which I think is driving the sharp increase in mental health challenges.
But negative messaging is not the only driver. ***Economic experience*** \- the way people experience the economy is another driver of the high levels of anxiety we are seeing today. Let's dig into that...
### The S3T Economic Experience Dashboard
Let's take a few moments to take a look at something we’ve been building on the S3T platform—the Economic Experience Dashboard.
And the reason we built it is pretty simple.
A lot of the numbers you see in headlines—the big economic indicators—don’t always line up with what people are *actually experiencing in their day-to-day lives.*
You might see a headline that says GDP is growing by a certain percentage, and on paper, that sounds like things are going well. But then you look at how families are actually living, and it doesn’t feel that way at all. In fact, for a lot of people, it feels like things are getting tighter, not easier.
And part of the issue is how we measure the economy.
Over time, a lot of the metrics used by governments and financial systems have become very… averaged. They smooth everything out across the entire system. And when you do that, you can miss what’s happening in specific groups—especially families and individuals who might not be seeing any of that growth in their own income or savings. In some cases, they’re experiencing the exact opposite.
And those experiences don’t always show up in the headline numbers.
So what we’re trying to do with this dashboard is bring that balance back in. To ask a more grounded question: what is the actual economic experience?
What are individuals and families really dealing with? And where / how could we help?
So we start looking at things side by side. What do wages look like in a region… and how does that compare to real costs—housing, utilities, groceries? What kinds of jobs are actually available?
When you put those pieces together, you start to get a much clearer picture of what’s really going on—not just in theory, but in lived reality.
And that kind of clarity matters.
Because when you track this data over time, it becomes much easier to understand how people are feeling—and even how they’re likely to vote in an election. For example, some election outcomes that seemed surprising on the surface weren’t really surprising at all if you were paying attention to the economic experience data.
It’s not necessarily about one administration doing a “good” or “bad” job. It’s more that the measurements we tend to rely on didn’t fully reflect what people were going through. And when voters feel financially strained or uncertain, they tend to respond in a very consistent way—they look for change. They hit the reset button when they go to the polls.
We’ve seen that pattern more than once - in 2020 and in 2024\.
So the takeaway here isn’t that we should stop tracking traditional economic indicators. Those still matter. But they’re not enough on their own.
We also need better ways to understand how the economy is actually being experienced—because at the end of the day, the economy isn’t just numbers running on a system somewhere.
It’s something people live.
It’s whether a family can make ends meet. Whether things feel stable… or not.
And if we want to really understand what’s happening—and what might happen next—that’s the level we need to be paying attention to.
That’s what this dashboard is trying to do. Here's a screenshot and there is a link below.
The latest numbers represent a deterioration in economic experience since December 2025\.
Below is the link to Economic Experience Dashboard:
[Economic Experience Dashboard - Q2 2026The Economic Experience Dashboard is designed to provide insight into the actual economic experience of the US population. US headline economic statistics may imply misleadingly positive conditions skewed by extremely high numbers at the upper end of the wealth spectrum. By factoring multiple economic data sources we get a betterS3TRalph Perrine](https://www.s3t.org/eed/)
### What we can do with this information
I think this part is really important.
Because the Economic Experience Dashboard isn’t just information to look at—it’s something you can actually use. It gives you a way to ground your conversations with elected representatives and policymakers. Instead of speaking in general terms, you can point to real conditions, real gaps between what’s being reported and what people are experiencing.
But it’s also more personal than that.
It’s about awareness. Just **being a little more tuned in to what people around us might be going through.** Because there are always going to be moments in people’s lives where things get tight… where making ends meet becomes hard.
And most of us, at some point, have been there ourselves. People helped us. Now, we have opportunities to help others.
So part of this is just remembering that—and looking out for each other when those moments come around again, whether it’s for us or for someone else.
By living this way, we’re not just reacting to the economy… we’re shaping something better alongside it. **We’re building the kind of community we actually want to live in.**
---
### Apple sets records for recycled materials
30% of the materials in Apple products come from recycled content. Even more notable, the following materials used in Apple products come from 100% recycled content:
- cobalt in batteries
- recycled rare earth elements in magnets
- gold plating and tin soldering in printed circuit boards
Learn more at Apple's [Environmental Progress Report.](https://www.apple.com/environment/?ref=s3t.org)
Apple has been struggling lately and is entering a new phase with a new CEO. But in spite of less than ideal circumstances and even less than ideal performance (looking at you Siri) has managed to nail a solid accomplishment for the environment. I like that Apple persisted with this and celebrates this in spite of the recent anti-environment fad which is not aging well.
Related: Azeem Azhar notices that [Apple may have more advantages than we realize](https://www.exponentialview.co/p/why-i-changed-my-mind-about-apple?ref=s3t.org) in the AI race. In a world where economics constrict access to large frontier models, the world's most trusted maker of personal hardware may hold a winning position.
I think there's an encouraging lesson there for all of us. You're not going to be perfect. Perfection & doing the right thing are 2 different things. Perfection is a pursuit. Doing the right thing is a binary choice. Imperfect people and teams when focused on the right things drive the impact that makes the difference.
Have a great weekend, and a great week ahead!
Ralph
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### The Biggest Threat to Your Job Isn’t AI—It’s Misalignment & Chaos
URL: https://www.s3t.org/the-biggest-threat-to-your-job-isnt-ai-its-misalignment-chaos/
Last updated: 2026-04-17T04:23:00.000Z
Right now, the top question is not “what’s happening?”—it’s *“What do I focus on right now to stay relevant?”*
S3T PodCast April 17, 2026
0:00
/587.0497959183673
1×
Most leaders and engineers can't help but focus on how fast AI is moving. That’s the visible story. The more important one is harder to see: **how do you stay relevant when signals are coming faster than most organizations can process them?**
AI is accelerating work, increasing interdependence, and quietly raising the cost of misalignment to levels most organizations are not prepared for. The winners won’t simply be those who use AI tools—they’ll be the ones who keep people and systems aligned while building the control layers that make AI reliable. **This week, we introduce two indispensable hacks for staying relevant—and positioning yourself ahead of the curve.**
---
## Relevance Hack #1: Alignment as a core advantage
This time next year, your coworkers may be [silently writing prompts, code or emails via brain reading beanie caps](https://boingboing.net/2026/04/16/a-silicon-valley-startup-wants-to-sell-you-a-brain-reading-beanie.html?ref=s3t.org).
Photo by [June Heredia](https://unsplash.com/@juneheredia?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
**What will this mean for the alignment in your organization?**
In the Financial Times [this week, Sarah O’Connor](https://www.ft.com/content/5e7e1a4e-050c-4c06-98ea-7be5c91863ab?ref=s3t.org) revisits Tanya Reilly's concept of “glue work” [originally introduced a 2019 post](https://www.noidea.dog/glue?ref=s3t.org).
Think of glue work as the effort required to align teams, translate across functions, reduce friction so you can keep things moving forward.
For years, this work has been undervalued. It’s hard to measure and doesn’t map neatly to output metrics. But AI changes the equation: AI doesn’t just increase productivity—it increases the *cost of misalignment*.
### The cost of misalignment is going up
In the past, organizations could tolerate friction, persistent silos and redundancy. Misalignment could linger without immediately threatening performance. There was enough slack in the system.
That slack is disappearing.
AI is accelerating *everything*—execution speed, output volume, system interdependence.
So when teams are misaligned, the costs and consequences pile up faster:
- duplication scales quickly
- errors propagate across systems
- rework compounds
- decisions stall
Misalignment is no longer a soft issue. It is a **hard constraint on performance**. It's also a hard constraint on speed.
Which means the people who can create alignment—who can connect, translate, and move groups forward—are now providing high value service.
---
## Relevance Hack #2: Preventing Chaos by building control harnesses around AI systems
The popular narrative says AI coding tools will eliminate the need for engineers. After reviewing Anthropic's leaked code, [Ben Dickson is convinced AI will actually increase the need for engineers](https://bdtechtalks.substack.com/p/the-art-of-ai-harness-engineering) \- at least those with a specific skillset.
The leaked code reinforced that LLMs are not standalone solutions. They are embedded within **complex engineering systems**—what you might think of as a “harness” that controls AI behavior includes:
- memory systems
- feature flags
- multi-agent coordination logic
- safety and control mechanisms
In other words: The LLM is not the system. It is just one component within a system.
The challenge is no longer just writing code. Its designing agentic ecosystems that control AI behaviors, use data in accordance with security and data use policies, and stay one step ahead of AI risks.
### What this can look like practice:
1. Monitoring AI model performance and explainability by using (and critiquing) [methods like sparse auto encoding](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/15/magazine/ai-black-box-interpretability-research.html?ref=s3t.org):
Courtesy [Standford, Andrew Ng Lecture notes](https://web.stanford.edu/class/cs294a/sparseAutoencoder.pdf?ref=s3t.org)
1. Rapidly evolving cybersecurity methods and mitigating threats from [increasingly intelligent frontier models like Mythos](https://www.aisi.gov.uk/blog/our-evaluation-of-claude-mythos-previews-cyber-capabilities?ref=s3t.org):
[AI Security Institute](https://www.aisi.gov.uk/blog/our-evaluation-of-claude-mythos-previews-cyber-capabilities?ref=s3t.org)
1. Designing, building and maintaining [Agent to Agent ecosystems](https://developers.googleblog.com/en/a2a-a-new-era-of-agent-interoperability/?ref=s3t.org) (using frameworks like Google's new A2A Protocol) that work reliably and securely:
[Google Agent to Agent (A2A) Protocol](https://developers.googleblog.com/en/a2a-a-new-era-of-agent-interoperability/?ref=s3t.org)
In other words:
**The engineering role is not diminishing.** It's changing, for sure. It is taking some new - more challenging - directions, but *it's becoming more central*. More important, not less.
###
---
### Implication: Say goodbye to the Business vs IT dichotomy.
The future of work won't be “technical” vs “non-technical.” It is more likely to be:
- **Coherence** (alignment, coordination, glue work that enhances the value of talent)
- **Control systems** (engineering harnesses and controls that enhance the value of AI)
### Translate this into action
Start paying closer attention to where friction exists around you. These points of friction are not problems to avoid. They are your opportunities to lead. To reduce misalignment and prevent chaos.
At the same time, look at how AI is being used in your organization. Where is it treated as a be-all end-all magic black box, vs. a managed component in a well-engineered ecosystem? Where are the gaps in control, reliability, or coordination?
Fixing these can have outsized impact.
---
### Final thought: who you are becoming
You know that today its not enough to just keep up with change.
You are learning to notice what matters and notice it *earlier*. Connect signals across domains. Act with conviction before it becomes obvious.
You are becoming someone who brings coherence to complexity. Someone who helps people align when things go in different directions. Someone who understands that powerful tools require equally powerful systems to ensure they deliver value.
This matters more than ever.
Because in a world where AI amplifies everything - good or bad - the ability to create alignment and to design systems that make that AI useful—is what defines real advantage.
You can now see more clearly what is changing. And that means you can help others see it too. Share that perspective. Start the conversation. Help others move forward too.
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### A new day: proactive understanding for the shift in value creation
URL: https://www.s3t.org/a-new-day-proactive-understanding-for-the-shift-in-value-creation/
Last updated: 2026-04-10T12:06:46.000Z
Key *signals amid the fog outline the new operating reality*
S3T PodCast April 10, 2026
0:00
/1015.04
1×
The BLS Inflation report due Friday is widely expected to show another increase. Whatever the number, it won't change the fact that [inflation has stayed well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target for 5 years now](https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/inflation-report-cpi-data-march-fed-rate-cuts?ref=s3t.org).
Real Personal Income [continues a downward trend](https://www.haver.com/articles/personal-income-consumption-and-prices-higher-prices-dampen-real-gains?ref=s3t.org) along with similar downward trends in consumer spending, and GDP ([revised downward to .5%](https://www.haver.com/articles/u-s-q4-2025-real-gdp-growth-revised-slower?ref=s3t.org)).
If you’re feeling a mix of unease, urgency, opportunity, —you’re reading the environment correctly. We are not in a typical cycle. We are in a shift in how value gets created, controlled, and distributed.
## **The great repositioning has begun**
Among operators, founders, and decision-makers, sentiment has moved into a more focused but uneasy state. (Confusion is slowly giving way to recognition?)
- AI is clearly accelerating—but unevenly
- Opportunity exists—again unevenly
- Traditional advantages feel less durable
Recent data reinforces this shift. The [National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reports](https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/03/10/nfib-small-business-survey-optimism-declines-but-uncertainty-lessens?ref=s3t.org) that **small business optimism has declined**, even as uncertainty has eased slightly—suggesting that people are *beginning to understand the environment*, but are not yet confident in their position within it.
Repositioning has begun. For proactive teams this means its time to shift gears:
- from: waiting for clarity before acting
- to: **adjust in motion. Active systems.** *So what does that look like for proactive teams?*
Let's dig in.
---
### \[emerging tech\]
## **AI Security as *Active* Systems**
Databricks just launched a new AI-native security product, [**Lakewatch**](https://www.databricks.com/blog/databricks-announces-lakewatch-new-open-agentic-siem?ref=s3t.org), designed to use *agents* to:
- Detect threats
- Investigate anomalies
- Coordinate responses
These agents are powered by models from Anthropic and are designed to operate continuously—not just when triggered by a user request or by a threat.
BTW: This new capability is based on 2 companies Databricks acquired: Antimatter (secure agent deployment) and SiftD.ai (human-agent collaboration tooling).
### So what: Security is no longer a static control layer.
Databricks is just one example of companies moving to address the new operating reality in a world where well funded state actors use AI to wage continuous cyberwar. The 2022 "[Defend Forward and Persistent Engagement](https://www.cybercom.mil/Media/News/Article/3198878/cyber-101-defend-forward-and-persistent-engagement/?ref=s3t.org) doctrine by US Cyber Command has now become operating reality for not just the military but all companies. InfoSec has to become **a continuously operating, intelligent system that adapts in real time.** Why:
- AI increases system complexity
- Static controls cannot keep pace
- Human-only oversight does not scale
Key point for CISOs and AI security teams: The advantage shifts from “who has the strongest controls” to “who has the most adaptive control systems.”
- Treat security as a **living system**, not a checklist
- Identify where autonomous processes are already acting in your environment
- Design workflows where **humans and agents operate together**, not separately
---
## Foundational Infrastructure at Risk
Google has [updated its estimate for a meaningful quantum computing threat](https://arstechnica.com/security/2026/03/google-bumps-up-q-day-estimate-to-2029-far-sooner-than-previously-thought/?ref=s3t.org) (“Q-Day”) to **2029**, way sooner than previously expected.
While most large tech consortiums (The Ethereum Foundation, AWS, Microsoft, and the Federal Gov) are actively developing **post-quantum security (PQS)** strategies, the Bitcoin community has yet to put forward a clear plan for protecting the network from being hacked by a quantum computer.
This week Bitcoin advocate Nick Carter went on the Bankless podcast with the message "[Bitcoin has 3 years to survive the quantum threat](https://www.bankless.com/podcast/bitcoin-has-3-years-to-survive-nic-carter?ref=s3t.org)" hoping to stoke more urgency that delayed response could expose significant vulnerabilities.
This is a classic cascading shift:
- Physical breakthrough → quantum capability
- Economic impact → existing cryptography becomes vulnerable
- Capital exposure → digital assets and infrastructure at risk
Bitcoin relies on a trust layer (cryptography) that is being obsoleted. Will this informal loose-knit community of anti-authoritarian mavericks muster the resolve to take timely action? Side note: The true identity of Satoshi Nakomoto (Bitcoin's creator) may have been finally revealed thanks to [John Carreyrou's quest published in the NYT this week](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/08/business/bitcoin-satoshi-nakamoto-identity-adam-back.html?ref=s3t.org).
### What to do
- Understand where your systems or holdings rely on **current cryptographic assumptions**
- Get clear on which of your platforms and vendors have **credible post-quantum roadmaps**
- Begin planning for **post quantum security transitions**, even if timelines remain uncertain
---
### \[economics\]
## **Capital Is Being Redirected at Scale**
Capital is becoming more centrally directed: At least for now, policy shaping economic outcomes. Markets are reacting to policy, vs policy responding to markets. Recent policy signals from Washington:
- A potential **$350 billion increase in defense spending** through reconciliation
- Continued support for **small business innovation programs**
- An ongoing trajectory of **rising federal debt**
Government is playing a more active role in shaping *economic* direction.
Instead of relying on central banks levering interest rates, Washington is moving beyond regulation to **capital allocation at scale**. This will have cascading effects:
- Certain sectors receive sustained tailwinds
- Private investment follows policy direction
- Risk pricing adjusts based on government posture
This reinforces a critical dynamic:
> Capital isn't necessarily neutral - flowing to the best business cases, guided by the all wise 'invisible hands' of the free market. In times like these it flows with intent—and that intent reshapes outcomes.
---
### **What to do**
- Track **where public capital is being directed**
- Align strategy with **policy-supported sectors and initiatives**
- Treat regulatory timing and funding flows as **strategic signals**, not background noise
---
## **Growth and Participation Are Diverging**
[Economists project that AI could](https://www.hcamag.com/us/news/general/ai-could-push-10-million-americans-out-of-the-work-force-economists-warn/570798?ref=s3t.org):
- Add **1–1.5 percentage points to annual U.S. GDP growth by 2050**
- Reduce the workforce by **\~10 million jobs**
- Push inequality to levels **not seen since 1939**
How is it possible that GPD goes up while jobs go down? AI increases output—but changes participation. More value is created. But fewer people are directly involved in creating it.
The shifts:
- From **doing work** → to **directing work (work being done increasingly by agents not people)**
- From **execution** → to **orchestration**
This introduces a new form of competition: Humans and agents operating in the same markets, competing for the same resources. Think about it: If 30 people and 3,000 agents are competing for the same pool of tokens:
- Who gets priority?
- Who sets the terms?
- Who captures the value?
These are no longer abstract questions. They are becoming operational realities.
### What to do
- Move toward roles that emphasize **judgment, framing, and decision-making**
- Develop the ability to **direct and evaluate AI-driven work**
- Focus on areas where **context and synthesis matter more than speed alone.**
---
## **The Nature of the Firm Is Being Challenged**
AI agents are rapidly reducing cost of administrative and operational activities. Will this lead to a [**Coasean Singularity?**](https://www.nber.org/system/files/chapters/c15309/c15309.pdf?ref=s3t.org)The title of this paper is a reference to the original paper of Ronald Coase, [The Nature of the Firm](https://ios23.classes.ryansafner.com/files/readings/Coase-1937.pdf?ref=s3t.org) which explained that firms exist to reduce transaction costs. Coase was intrigued by the question "if Adam Smith's invisible hand is effective, then why aren't we all freelancers??" (my rough paraphrase). In his paper he answers that question: firms provide economies of scale to handle the transactional workloads that a society of freelancers would otherwise struggle to handle.
**The Coasean Singularity paper revisits that question in light of AI agents:**
> If those costs fall dramatically, will the traditional rationale for large, centralized organizations weakens?
This helps explain several current observations:
- Increasing frustration with silos
- Difficulty maintaining engagement within rigid structures
- High-performing teams operating across boundaries
Organizations are trying to maintain structure in an environment that rewards fluidity. That tension is becoming more visible. And it is likely having an effect on employment.
### What to do
- Teach talent to operate **across organizational boundaries** (be agnostic to the org structure)
- Think in terms of **networks and capabilities**, not just roles and titles
- Develop workflows that are **resilient to structural constraints**
---
## To summarize: Periods like this are brief but consequential.
The operating environment is changing along three dimensions:
**1\. Speed:** Decisions, risks, and opportunities are accelerating
**2\. Structure**: Organizations and markets are becoming more fluid
**3\. Leverage**: Advantage is concentrating among those who adapt early
In this window where systems are shifting, structure is fluid, you have **a window of opportunity to establish new positions.** That window is open now. But it will not remain open indefinitely. To translate this into action this week:
### **1\. Reassess Your Position**
- Where are you directly competing with automation?
- Where can you use it to expand your output?
### **2\. Upgrade Your Role**
- Shift toward **decision-making and orchestration**
- Reduce reliance on purely execution-based tasks
### **3\. Follow Capital Signals**
- Identify sectors and initiatives receiving sustained investment
- Align efforts with **structural tailwinds**
### **4\. Expand Your Operating Network**
- Build relationships beyond your immediate organization
- Increase your ability to **work across boundaries**
### **5\. Stay Close to Structural Shifts**
- Security
- Infrastructure
- Policy
These are no longer background conditions—they are active drivers of strategy.
---
## **See the Full Picture**
- [5 Layers of Strategic Awareness](https://www.s3t.org/5layers)" *your lens on *how real-world signals are interacting across layers*—and where to focus next.*
- [Global Economic Calendar](https://www.s3t.org/dashboard/) \- *top 500+ US & Intl real-time economic indicators.*
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### April Fools jokes or Purpose driven innovation - what are we building?
URL: https://www.s3t.org/april-fools-jokes-or-purpose-driven-innovation-what-are-we-building/
Last updated: 2026-04-03T05:22:40.000Z
*Tech for techs sake - or for some purpose?*
S3T PodCast April 3, 2026
0:00
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### This week on April 1st the Museum of Life and Science posted an April Fool's joke
A "news item" claiming that the children's train ride had been "upgraded" with a high speed train that could race around the museum grounds in only 7 seconds!
###
For my wife and I, it was a fun reminder of our family memories from years ago when our kids were little - we rode that little train many, many times!
It was also a perfect example of how tech-for-tech's sake innovations sometimes miss the point.
For our kids (and all the others) the whole point of the train ride was to yell and scream when the train went thru the tunnel ... a joyful noise experience that a high speed train would shorten if not eliminate :)
This week we look at the ongoing developments in AI and crypto, and their implications for health and wellbeing of the economy and the people who depend on it. Some of what is happening is tech-for-techs sake, and some of it feels an April Fools joke being played on all of us. Hopefully we are smart enough to see it.
### Institutions continue to move into crypto
- [Fannie Mae will accept crypto-backed mortgages for the first time](https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/fannie-mae-to-accept-crypto-backed-mortgages-for-the-first-time-bfa502c7?ref=s3t.org): The company is partnering with Coinbase to enable home buyers to use bitcoin or USDC as collateral for their mortgages.
- Franklin Templeton, one of the world's largest asset managers with $1.74T under management, [is launching a crypto unit](https://www.franklintempleton.com/press-releases/news-room/2026/franklin-templeton-agrees-to-acquire-liquid-strategies-from-coinfund-spinoff-launches-franklin-crypto?ref=s3t.org). The new unit is a reincarnation of 250 Digital which FT recently acquired.
### and see synergies between crypto and AI
[BlackRock’s head of digital assets, Robbie Mitchnick](https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/03/24/blackrock-flags-ai-as-crypto-s-next-big-use-case-not-token-boom?ref=s3t.org) at the Digital Asset Summit in New York last Tuesday:
[](https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/03/25/bittensor-ecosystem-tokens-value-hit-usd1-5-billion-as-jensen-huang-endorsement-supports-tao-rally?ref=s3t.org)
*“AI agents are very unlikely to use, you know, Fedwire and SWIFT…What is crypto? Crypto is computer-native money… AI is computer-native data and intelligence. And so there’s a natural symbiosis there.”*
[A lesser known crypto player got a coveted shout out from NVIDIA's Jensen Huang](https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/03/25/bittensor-ecosystem-tokens-value-hit-usd1-5-billion-as-jensen-huang-endorsement-supports-tao-rally?ref=s3t.org) this past week:
- [Bittensor](https://bittensor.com/?ref=s3t.org) provides a blockchain based platform for training Large Language Models (LLMs) in a *decentralized* manner...
- Bittensor trained a respectable 72-billion parameter LLM (Covenant 72B) using a decentralized network of consumer and professional grade GPUs rather than a large datacenter.
- This distributes the energy cost and impact across hundreds / thousands of smaller points.
Huang compared the achievement to the [folding@home](https://foldingathome.org/?ref=s3t.org) platform (enables protein folding breakthroughs to fight diseases.)
Bittensor's LLM training milestone offers a glimpse into gentler AI energy strategies for AI model *creation*, but as we'll see below, big tech continues to drive huge investments hoping to cash in on AI model *consumption* \- billions of individuals paying to use AI models for daily tasks.
### but the industry is running out of time to solve quantum security risks
[Google resets deadline for Post Quantum Security to 2029](https://arstechnica.com/security/2026/03/google-bumps-up-q-day-estimate-to-2029-far-sooner-than-previously-thought/?ref=s3t.org) \- previous estimates suggested we had a decade or more. This gives companies \~2.5 years to devise and test new security methods that could withstand an attack from a Quantum computer.
The risk to crypto assets including but not limited Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana should not be ignored, as detailed in [this hot off the press technical deep dive into quantum enabled hacking capabilities](https://quantumai.google/static/site-assets/downloads/cryptocurrency-whitepaper.pdf?ref=s3t.org) (must-read for crypto investors, exchanges and CISOs). The research finds that quantum computers will be able to execute hacks with fewer resources than originally thought:
*"On superconducting architectures with 10−3 physical error rates and planar connectivity, those circuits can execute in minutes using fewer than half a million physical qubits...we urge all vulnerable cryptocurrency communities to join the migration to PQS without delay"*
Bitcoin's recent Taproot upgrade may have [made it more vulnerable to quantum attacks](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/03/31/bitcoin-s-taproot-could-make-quantum-attacks-easier-than-expected-new-google-research-says?ref=s3t.org). The fact that this upgrade came out when regulated companies are issuing post quantum security roadmaps, suggests the Bitcoin development team still has not developed a coherent strategy for safeguarding Bitcoin from quantum computing attacks.
### Meanwhile High hopes for OpenAI...
OpenAI's [latest funding deal](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-closes-silicon-valleys-largest-ever-funding-round-e48372c9?ref=s3t.org) with Amazon makes it one of the biggest cash burners in history. For context, Silicon Valley ventures in the last 20 years have become increasingly willing to burn huge amounts of investment before finally turning a profit. Their logic: innovation at scale takes patience and a LOT of money.
As the chart above shows, [OpenAI is taking this to a whole new level](https://sherwood.news/markets/openais-planned-cash-burn-unlike-anything-ever-seen-now-doubling-it/?ref=s3t.org). The previous examples of large cash burns (Uber, Tesla, Netflix) seem tiny in comparison.
This is either sacrificial risk-taking to take the world's economy to the next level, or this is the most epic April Fool's joke in history.
### Will this massive investment pay off in ways that are net positive?
By 2030, [global datacenter capacity will double](https://www.jll.com/en-uk/insights/market-outlook/data-center-outlook?ref=s3t.org) if trends continue. In recent editions of S3T we talked about how this trend is driving red hot inflation in the supply chains of chips and energy, making it a risky time to lock in multi year contracts for hosting and compute.
But the overheating also extends to the physical world:
- We are now learning that datacenters do [increase the local temperatures in their surrounding areas by up more than 9.1c](https://www.newscientist.com/article/2521256-ai-data-centres-can-warm-surrounding-areas-by-up-to-9-1c/?ref=s3t.org) (\~48 degrees!)
- These "heat islands" will have impacts on global climate, as well as air quality and quality of life for the people living nearby.
We also continue to get insights on how AI will impact industries and jobs.
[Google Maps new AI driven Ask Maps](https://www.techradar.com/ai-platforms-assistants/our-biggest-navigation-upgrade-in-over-a-decade-google-maps-gets-two-massive-gemini-powered-features-that-youre-going-to-use-all-the-time?ref=s3t.org) feature may displace an entire layer of web businesses: review / recommendation sites and booking apps. The new feature allows for much more specific questions: "Where is a quiet coffee shop with charging outlets at each table" or "Is there a nature trail less than a mile off the interstate between Charlotte and Concord." etc.
### How to make tech investment work for the entire economy
The long trend indicates very clearly that much of the innovation so far in the 21st century has tended to drive lopsided benefits for the upper end of the wealth spectrum while wages and benefits for the rest remain flat if not declining.
Broadening - and modernizing - capital ownership is an important opportunity for us to explore and act on at all levels:
- Personal level - help the people you know learn how to save and invest, and understand how to use new technologies (and own and operate AI agents and robots)
- Community level - support the creation of small businesses, with a focus on proactively solving the future problems that are emerging today.
- Policy level - adjust tax and incentives to support broader capital ownership
On this last point, policy, Sheila Blair, former chair of the FDIC has [a new insightful piece](https://www.ft.com/content/559173b9-b21e-4743-8800-d3a9699b4a92?ref=s3t.org) on how exactly US tax and incentive policy needs to be re-tuned for the age of AI.
*“the US has long given preferential tax treatment to people who make money from investments over people who earn a living from wages. The unproven rationale for this costly tax break is that it incentivises investment. But as wealth continues to flow disproportionately to investors and away from workers — a trend that AI will probably accelerate — this policy needs a rethink.“*
Blair's key insight is that this really isn't about fair treatment for wealthy vs non-wealthy. **Its about investors vs wage earners** ... for various reasons US tax policy over time has come to vastly favor investors...giving you large numbers of loopholes and provisions for avoiding taxes, while piling tax burdens onto wage earners.
The net net is bad for the entire economy:
- Trillions of dollars are tunneled from one generation to the next without creating jobs or economic growth [because wealth holders are incentivized to avoid taxes and risks](https://rooseveltinstitute.org/publications/how-to-tax-the-ultrarich/?ref=s3t.org).
- This is also increasingly understood to be bad for the individuals who hold the wealth: [the mental crisis of inheritor's guilt](https://www.craincurrency.com/family-office-management/hidden-cost-legacy-why-wealth-preservation-third-generation-requires-more?ref=s3t.org).
### An Easter lens on economics...
My Dad was a schoolteacher, and - outside the classroom - a man of few words. But some of his statements really stuck with me.
One time he talked to me about purpose and sacrifice in life. He mentioned the verse where Jesus tells his disciples to take up their cross and follow him (Matthew 16:24).
With these simple words, my Dad encouraged me to live intentionally:
"When Jesus took up his cross, he knew there was no turning back and he was giving his all...You will ultimately spend your life on *something*. You might as well know what it is."
Which brings us back to the tax and wealth debate:
*If we're living without purpose, what good is the money anyway?*
###
### K shaped economy? Its ok, we know what to do...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/k-shaped-economy-its-ok-we-know-what-to-do/
Last updated: 2026-03-27T02:31:29.000Z
*We've been here before,* *yes*, *many times...*
S3T PodCast March 27, 2026
0:00
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### Fossil fuels: *economic liability* not just a climate liability
This [Austrian defense analysis group](https://tdhj.org/blog/post/energy-resilience-hormuz/?ref=s3t.org) is proposing that the UAE build a canal to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and build new pipelines and scale up the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline.
Monumental project ideas like these cement for many the reality that fossil fuels are an *economic liability not just a climate liability*.
[The Defence Horizon Journal](https://tdhj.org/blog/post/energy-resilience-hormuz/?ref=s3t.org)
As noted in previous editions of S3T, China doubled down on a strategic shift to green energy, ignoring the fossil fuel political fads elsewhere.
China added more than 430 GW of new wind and solar capacity in 2025 alone, pushing total renewable capacity above 1,800 GW and taking renewables to more than 60% of installed power capacity. China's solar and wind energy costs run below global averages. See this [Energy Central explainer](https://www.energycentral.com/energy-biz/post/why-the-strait-of-hormuz-proves-renewables-are-strategic-5f55N0C6QiuHxwi?ref=s3t.org) and its links to primary sources.
For now though most other places in the world are not so well positioned. Inflation in both core energy and core compute costs is creating a flywheel of affordability problems for broad sections of societies around the world.
### Can't blame everything on the Middle East ...
Andy Cates writes in this [excellent macroeconomic decoder](https://www.haver.com/articles/shock-supply-and-constraint?ref=s3t.org) that the current Middle East crisis isn't hurting the economy, as much as its just revealing *what was already happening.*
[Courtesy of Haver Analytics](https://www.haver.com/articles/shock-supply-and-constraint?ref=s3t.org)
The global economy is becoming more uncertain and harder to manage using traditional economic tools. Central banks are losing their ability to understand and influence the increasingly complex and fragmented forces shaping the global economy.
Individuals and families are noticing the difference between the headline economic figures vs their own lived experience. Economic figures like GDP, growth, etc don't resonate when they are a skewed amalgam of the good fortunes of a few masking the not-so-good fortunes of the many. A majority do not believe that interest rates can tame inflation.
### K-shaped economy in the US more obvious now
The "K shaped economy" was a phrase coined by Goldman strategist David Kostin in 2020 to describe situations where an economy seems to split into 2 parts, and going in two different directions - part of it seems great and getting better, while the other seems well, pretty hopeless.
****K Shaped Economy:** One part experiences strong growth and wealth accumulation while the other experiences stagnation and decline.
The [long trend data](https://worlddatalab.com/world-data-intelligence?ref=s3t.org) has indicated this problem for some time now: spending growth in the hands of a rich few in contrast to shrinking or stagnant spending among the rest.
This chart compares G7 nations and shows how the problem persists more severely in the US.
Notice 3 things here:
- the gap between the top percentiles vs bottom half
- US as unique in having the largest gap by far
- The persistence of this issue in the US since \~2005
This trend eased during the post pandemic recovery, but returned full force in Jan 2025.
Bank of America tracks trends in paycheck deposits to understand wage growth. [As shown in the chart above](https://sherwood.news/markets/the-k-shaped-economy-in-one-chart?ref=s3t.org), since 2023, there has been:
- marked decline in the rate of growth for lower income tier, approaching zero by mid 2025
- modest decline in mid-income tier
- steady *increase* of wage growth for higher income tier
### Airplanes, groceries, crypto
Its interesting to see where the "K" keeps showing up in the economy:
Airlines have noticed the K shaped economy, and are [allocating more of their cabins to higher priced premium seating](https://sherwood.news/business/us-airlines-are-still-doubling-down-on-premium-seats-as-the-k-shaped-economy?ref=s3t.org).
Walmart stock doubled in the past 2 years - but it wasn't because people wanted more clothes, household items or camping gear...
[Walmart Stock Historical Data](https://stock.walmart.com/stock-data/historical-data?ref=s3t.org)
[Groceries accounted for 60% of Walmart's growth](https://www.grocerydive.com/news/walmart-grocery-sales-united-states/746531/?ref=s3t.org), making Walmart [the largest grocer by market share](https://talkbusiness.net/2026/03/the-supply-side-more-consumers-moving-to-walmart-for-grocery/?ref=s3t.org) in the US, with a record [72% of US households heading to Walmart](https://www.bluebookservices.com/walmart-grocery-penetration-reaches-record-levels-dunnhumby-reports/?ref=s3t.org) as financially constrained consumers shifted to lower cost options.
The overall retail sector read on this: the competitor to beat is not Walmart per se, but rather the erosion of consumer purchasing power. [Retail analyst DunnHumby explained the K shaped economy for their retail customers this way: ](https://www.dunnhumby.com/resources/blog/loyalty-personalisation/en/navigating-financial-repression-through-personalised-loyalty/?ref=s3t.org)
*"Americans are not paying less; they are being forced to accept a lower standard of living to maintain the same level of spend, while interest rates continue to fall and the cash they hold and salary they earn becomes worth less, in real terms."*
Which brings us full circle back to Andy Cate's original point: Central banks and traditional economic policy tools are losing their grip on today's economy. These tools - designed to measure and stimulate value creation - aren't suited for a reality where
- value creation is accelerating ahead of policy and governance
- participation in that value creation is increasingly uneven.
All the different signals: shifts in grocery shopping patterns, debates over stablecoin yield, fascination with online betting, meme coins and speculative assets are all expressions of one thing: people are desperate to participate in value creation. Wages alone are no longer a path to financial security.
### Opportunity: modernize and *broaden capital ownership*
For change leaders, this time represents a rare window of opportunity. What we are witnessing at this point in the 21st century is not just another bear/bull cycle, but rather a **structural shift in how value gets created and distributed**. An inflection point with new emerging forms of capital: AI agents, robots, digital assets and financial rails. But we have a choice:
- Economic stability by expanding access to ownership of new value engines
- Economic instability thanks to hyper-concentration of capital
This doesn't have to look like some kind of socialistic dystopia. And it's not abstract theory either. **The practical path forward is actually a familiar one rich with lessons from history**, with a long track record of *successes*:
- The GI Bill the broadened access to knowledge capital
- The federal programs that expanded home ownership
- The employee ownership and ESOP movement that enabled broader ownership in companies
- Credit unions and rural co-ops that expanded access to financial and physical infrastructure
- 401K plans that brought equity ownership to millions
- More recently e-commerce, digital creator tools, and digital assets - while hit and miss - hint at the rise of new digital forms of capital and value creation to come.
The point is, we've been doing this a while now - and in different ways - with pretty decent success. **It's time to do it again!**
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
---
###
### Strategic Skill Building Part 2
URL: https://www.s3t.org/strategic-skill-building-part-2/
Last updated: 2026-03-20T02:17:56.000Z
*It's not enough to translate signals into decisions. You have to translate *signals into skills* that let you thrive.*
S3T PodCast March 20 2026
0:00
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Last week we looked at the 5 Layers of Strategic Awareness, a unique world model that helps us recognize signals telling us what kind of changes we should be getting ready for - and how to get ready for those changes.
This week we build on that - with a unique insight about why so many companies fail to adapt and get ready for the future.
### Why this matters so much right now
If you track Layoffs.fyi, no one seems immune to layoffs. Amazon, Atlassian, security orgs like Cyberark and Verint, and even AI companies like C3.AI.
Behind these layoffs is a shared, very human desire to prevent layoffs from happening:
- Individuals stress over how to avoid being laid off
- Managers hope their team won't be selected for workforce reductions
Even the most hardened power players have to acknowledge the wastefulness of it all —to invest in people, only to pivot and declare them no longer relevant. It's an admission of failure.
“If I had seen what was coming earlier… if I had helped my team adapt and build the right skills… would we be here?”
That question is being asked right now by:
- the store manager watching foot traffic shift
- the tech leader trying to do more with less
- the SMB executive trying to avoid cuts
- the HR leader racing to reskill teams before it’s too late
If I could have done a better job seeing what was coming, and helping my team adapt to these new changing realities, and build the new skills they need, we wouldn't have been caught in this scenario where we realize we're not ready and we can't sustain the org we've created.
And for those already impacted, there is this sinking realization - whether they can put it into words or not - *we saw the signals but we didn't adapt in time.*
Right now a lot of organizations are coming to grips with their readiness for the future...and feeling very *not ready*. In the inevitable rounds of retrospectives, soul searching, and 'how do we not let this happen again', there is something important that gets missed.
### Not signal to decision...Signal to *skill*
Leadership teams tend to think in terms of *get good insights --> make a good decision.*
This short circuits something crucial.
Making good decisions is a *skill* not a point in time task. Good decisions are rarely binary coin flips (just pick head or tails).
Not today.
Today's decisions involve tradeoffs, risks of being wrong, hedge factors, assumptions about future events and a plan for monitoring those assumptions, setting visibility thresholds (known future points at which you and the team will gain additional insights), and making adjustments during execution and follow through.
Take a look at today's elements of good decision making:
Click to Zoom
Notice how many of these are all recurring activities vs one time events. Notice how many of them are teamwork activities that require *skill*. And that they support a succession of decisions, not just point in time coin flips.
You want to be properly aware of your environment. Then you want to respond to that environment in a skillful proactive way
Let's translate this into your organizational context:
- You want your organization to be aware of its environment
- You want your organization to respond to that environment in a skillful coordinated proactive way.
This means you want your organization and all of its parts to be good at recognizing signals about the future, and *translating those signals into updated skills and strong teamwork.*
It's not enough to bring in a special speaker for a one time event to tell us about the future. Or to read the annual industry outlooks that are published around the beginning of each year.
That's a veneer.
**It's one thing to have an organization where a few people have some knowledge of the future. It's another thing for that organization to be actively adapting to the future.**
It's literally the difference between a skilled surfer who knows how to adapt to changing wave and weather conditions and still surf with great rides vs. a non-surfer wearing a cool surf hoodie.
This is why we emphasize "signal to skill" not just "signal to decision."
### Catching up to do
Many industries haven’t traditionally been very good at providing training or education to help people translate signals into *skills*. The problem starts at the top.
This PWC chart is telling - both in where it hits and where it misses.
[PWC Workforce Hopes and Fears](https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/workforce/hopes-and-fears.html?ref=s3t.org#acknowledge-the-uncertain-future)
The numbers here ostensibly show a disparity between learning opportunities of execs vs individual contributors.
But this chart actually reveals a more crucial problem:
If 3/4 of execs think they are getting adequate learning, but less than half of their staff are, you have to wonder: *are the execs actually getting the right learning?* Clearly not.
Why?
It's easy to think about skills in a one-track way. We think of individual learning tracks:
- The technology track: individuals could learn cloud or learn Cybersecurity skills or more recently MCP...technology skills sets based largely on API’s and technical documentation of how to create pieces of software.
- The Org leadership/HR track: teaching people how to have emotional intelligence, executive presence and other clever ways to imply worthiness to be admitted to some rarified inner circle. Sound decision making is too often assumed based one’s relationships, bio, appearance or boardroom behaviors rather than careful evaluation of ones ability to skillfully connect the dots and navigate forward.
There's a large gap between this kind of learning vs. learning how to play a valuable role what organizations have to be today: intelligent decision-making networks, staffed by people who know **how to exercise the kind of *skills* that lead to good decisions**.
In our rapidly accelerating world where the stakes seem higher every day, one of the things we really have to do is help upskill people in turning signals into skills. Once we have the right skills we can make the right kind of decisions.
This becomes more obvious when you consider that good decisions (decisions that look good in hindsight) always look good in hindsight because of 2 elements:
- strong due diligence during the decision making process
- strong follow through after the decision is made
This is why we say decision making is a skill - more accurately a set of skills.
So when we look at the set of signals coming from our operating environment, we don't just think "How do I translate these signals into a decision?" but rather how do translate these signals into skills that will help me make good decisions, and drive good execution? We think of *signal to skill*.
There is a lot more to unpack from here. But now you see the core function of the S3T newsletter and learning platform: picking up on important signals about future opportunities and risks, and then translating those signals into the skills that will give us durable competitive advantages.
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### Strategic Skill Building - Part 1
URL: https://www.s3t.org/strategic-skill-building-part-1/
Last updated: 2026-03-13T01:35:46.000Z
*The best decisions are not made by individual decision-makers. They're made by teams who have the right skills and are watching the right signals.*
Welcome to a special 2 part edition of S3T focusing on Strategic Skill Building:
- Part 1: How to stop missing important signals
- Part 2: How to translate signals into skills
S3T PodCast - March 13, 2026
0:00
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### Why strategic skill building matters for everyone now
Whether you are a solo entrepreneur, a small business or a Fortune 100, the accelerating capabilities of AI tools is changing the way we think and plan. There was a time when strategic foresight was primarily the preoccupation of a few high stakes domains = military force planning, oil supply chains and the like. The rest of us lived in a world that moved slowly enough to allow plenty of time for trial and error, technical debt, backlogs and missed OKRs.
That world is long gone.
The pace of change, and the rapidly expanding technology capabilities make it more stressful yes, but it also offers greater opportunities. Capitalizing on these opportunities becomes doable if we can learn to adapt in a few key ways. One of the first strategic keys for unlocking these opportunities is *learning how to connect the dots*.
### **Connecting the dots**
Strategy by its very nature is a multidisciplinary. - yet we lack strong methods of *connecting the dots* or the data points from different fields. We perpetually tend to think and make decisions from narrow even single discipline points of view.
So there is a strong case for establishing a process for understanding the *sets of things* that are important inputs to good decisions.
Take recent developments in the AI industry: a set of different factors: land, energy, water supply, geopolitics have all impacted the outlook, the share prices, and strategic developments related to this technology.
A leader watching only from a single perspective: say real estate, or power grid, or technology, or maybe geopolitics could miss important signals that they would otherwise notice if the watched this full *set* of different disciplinary fields.
Some teams are learning how to do this, and as a result are making decisions that support their own risk tolerance and budgets.
Others are missing these signals altogether and locking themselves into spend that is actually *outside* their risk tolerance and budgets.
### So the new critical question becomes...
What is that set of events, data points, and developments that may be occurring across multiple industries and disciplines that would be most impactful for decision makers and investors to pay attention to and get acquainted with this week? or this month?
This is where the **5 Layers of Strategic Awareness** can make all the difference. Below is a brief introduction. Go here for an interactive feature on the [5 Layers of Strategic Awareness](https://www.s3t.org/5layers/) and how to use this valuable framework.
# 5 Layers of Strategic Change
*Framework for detecting ignals that precede major economic and technological shifts.*
## 1\. Physical Constraints — *The Reality Layer*
**Definition**
- Hard **physical bottlenecks** that limit expansion regardless of capital, software, or policy.
**Why it matters**
- Physical limits eventually constrain every major boom cycle.
- The economy is a subsystem of nature
- When infrastructure becomes scarce, **asset valuations reprice quickly**.
**High-Value Signals**
- Grid interconnection queues and transmission bottlenecks
- Transformer and electrical equipment manufacturing lead times
- Semiconductor manufacturing equipment shipments
- Water rights conflicts affecting industrial development
- Insurance withdrawals from climate-exposed regions
- Infrastructure permitting timelines
**Historical examples**
- Railroad capacity limits in the 1870s
- Oil supply shocks in the 1970s
- Housing material shortages during the 2008 crisis
- Semiconductor shortages in 2021
**Interpretation**
- These signals indicate **capital allocation pressure**, not environmental narratives.
---
## 2\. Cost Curve Signals — *The Economics Layer*
**Definition**
- Structural shifts in **production costs** that change competitive advantage.
**Why it matters**
- When costs change faster than demand, **entire value chains reorganize**.
**High-Value Signals**
- Cost per AI training token or compute unit
- Inference cost declines
- Regional electricity price spreads
- Energy storage cost trends (batteries, LNG transport, grid storage)
- Compute utilization rates in data centers
- Freight and global shipping indexes
**Typical transition pattern**
1. Infrastructure builders
2. Application developers
3. Distribution platforms capture value
**Interpretation**
- When **AI inference costs collapse**, value tends to shift downstream toward **applications and distribution**.
---
## 3\. Capital Flow Signals — *The Financial Layer*
**Definition**
- Changes in **funding conditions and capital allocation patterns**.
**Why it matters**
- Market bubbles rarely burst because technology fails.
- They burst when **capital conditions tighten**.
**High-Value Signals**
- Private credit exposure to infrastructure projects
- Hyperscaler capital expenditures vs free cash flow
- Venture capital concentration trends
- Insurance and reinsurance pricing changes
- Sovereign wealth fund allocations
- Treasury yields relative to equity valuations
**Interpretation**
- When **capital tightens while infrastructure demand rises**, strategic pivots often occur simultaneously across:
- technology
- utilities
- real estate
- infrastructure investment
---
## 4\. Political Permission — *The Governance Layer*
**Definition**
- The regulatory and legal environment that determines **whether technologies can scale**.
**Why it matters**
- Markets operate within **legal permission structures**.
- Once technology becomes infrastructure, it becomes **political**.
**High-Value Signals**
- Zoning and land-use changes
- Public utility commission rulings
- Antitrust actions
- Export controls on technology
- Environmental permitting timelines
- Data sovereignty regulations
- Rural or regional opposition movements
**Interpretation**
- AI, electricity allocation, water access, and land use are increasingly **political allocation problems**.
---
## 5\. Social Reaction — *The Adoption Layer*
**Definition**
- Public and institutional acceptance or rejection of technological or industrial change.
**Why it matters**
- Technologies succeed not only based on capability but on **social license to operate**.
**High-Value Signals**
- Labor strikes or worker actions
- Community zoning pushback
- Lawsuits and public litigation
- Professional licensing debates
- Union negotiations
- Changes in public school or healthcare policy
**Historical pattern**
Technologies often follow the same cycle:
1. Innovation
2. Rapid expansion
3. Social backlash
4. Institutional adoption
Examples include:
- Railroads
- Nuclear power
- GMOs
- Fracking
- AI today
---
### Key Takeaways
- Signals usually emerge in this order: Physical constraints → Cost changes → Capital flows → Political responses → Social reaction
- The most valuable predictive signals are usually in Layers 1–3
- Noticing connections between signals in different layers enables more complete understanding of the timing and impacts of oncoming change, threats, and opportunities.
- Media coverage heavily focuses on Layer 5 (social reaction)
This is why biophysical data, infrastructure data, cost curves, and capital flows often provide **earlier warning of structural shifts than headlines and social media ever do**.
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### Raise your team's cost IQ: RAM, AI supply chain inflation, new tradeoffs for local vs cloud
URL: https://www.s3t.org/raise-your-teams-cost-iq-ram-ai-supply-chain-inflation-new-tradeoffs-for-local-vs-cloud/
Last updated: 2026-03-06T03:35:17.000Z
*What do you do when a new innovation *increases* costs??*
S3T PodCast March 6, 2026
0:00
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### Dire Straits
At time of writing/recording, the Iran conflict is about to enter its 7th day, as capitals and economic hubs worldwide are watching for indications of how long this conflict will last. The longer it goes on, the more we risk a global inflationary shock. The US average price for [a gallon of gas is up 27 cents this week](https://gasprices.aaa.com/jump-at-the-pump-as-national-average-goes-up-nearly-27-cents/?ref=s3t.org).
Track Oil Tankers and other Shipping at [Marinetraffic.com](https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:60.6/centery:24.1/zoom:4?ref=s3t.org)
**This comes at a particularly bad time for the already volatile economics of compute.** By disrupting the energy supply chain, the conflict is directly inflating the cost of energy—the primary input for AI compute. This will add to the feedback loop of rising operational costs and market volatility across *all digitized industries*.
That's why this week we need to dig into the crucial intersection where technology, economics and skillsets come together. We want to be grounded in:
- The economic realities now impacting tech choices we make and
- The specific skills and actions teams can use to reposition for best possible outcomes.
### What seems unique about this time period
For the tech history that I have witnessed dating back to the early 90's - all the waves of innovation always tended to *reduce costs and raise productivity* in undeniable ways.
What seems unique about where we are today, is that **the current wave of technology innovation is actually *increasing* costs,** and not creating consistently meaningful and observable productivity gains.
This is not to say there will be no productivity gains or benefits. Or that costs structures will never streamline. **But it does require us to get smarter and more selective about how we apply these new technologies.** Smarter and more selective won't come from bringing the right speaker to your next board meeting or investment committee: it will come from empowering your team to experiment and learn how to match your company's compute workloads to *the most cost effective form of compute*.
That's what we'll dig into today. Let's start by familiarizing ourselves with the current economics of compute.
Click to Zoom
### The inflationary impact of hyperscalers
RAM prices are [up 90% so far in 2026](https://counterpointresearch.com/en/insights/Memory-Prices-Surge-Up-to-90-From-Q4-2025?ref=s3t.org) as chip manufacturers (Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron) redirect massive amounts of their chip production away from consumer products to **High Bandwidth Memory (HBM)** to satisfy demand for AI accelerators like Nvidia’s H100 and B200\. This comes on top of sharp price increases that [already occurred in 2025](https://intuitionlabs.ai/articles/ram-shortage-2025-ai-demand?ref=s3t.org).
“Just to give you an idea, a single AI server can use as much advanced memory as a dozen or even hundreds of traditional laptops” [observes Matteo Rinaldi](https://coe.northeastern.edu/news/the-boom-of-ai-is-behind-the-surge-in-ram-prices/?ref=s3t.org) who sees this as a more structural long lasting issue than the temporary supply chain shocks during Covid.
Implications:
- Digital products inflation: rising prices for consumer products - phones, computers, consoles - as OpenAI, Microsoft, Google and others grab as much processing power and chip supply as they can.
- Planning dilemmas for teams. If you bought hardware prior to the RAM cost spike, find a way to use it.
[Counterpoint Research](https://counterpointresearch.com/en/insights/Memory-Prices-Surge-Up-to-90-From-Q4-2025?ref=s3t.org)
###
### Connecting the economic dots
The massive investment poured into AI big tech - that pushed stocks to new highs amid otherwise flat to negative conditions - has to get paid back ...*somehow*. As shown in the AI supply chain diagram above, this is going to get complicated.
Tech titans are betting they can create ROI by bringing enterprises and consumers into their controlled cloud environments and charging for usage.
But businesses are starting to learn what this means for their bottom line. So far the cost savings from enterprise AI have not kept up with the rising costs of using enterprise AI - *especially agentic AI*.
[This Deloitte paper](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/technology-management/tech-trends/2026/ai-infrastructure-compute-strategy.html?ref=s3t.org) notes that proactive organizations are starting to rethink compute - specifically how they **match workloads to processing power:**
*"On-prem compute may be more cost effective than cloud for consistent, high-volume workloads...when cloud costs begin to exceed 60% to 70% of the total cost of acquiring equivalent on-premises systems, making capital investment more attractive than operational expenses for predictable AI workloads."*
As companies become more cost conscious, and the realization of limited ROI takes hold, there will likely be a **pricing strategy competition** (in the AI value chain) as AI players scramble to shore up their margins and - hopefully - pay back their investors. This will not be fun. It will likely bear some resemblance to bankruptcy court proceedings.
Companies and industries over-exposed to this desperation cycle will struggle to control their margins and competitive pricing. Be careful of locking into multi-year contracts with consumption based pricing.
### Hybrid cloud takes on new relevance
To manage your exposure to the economics of compute, do a careful analysis of costs based on the size and type of your compute workloads. The "everything to cloud" mantra may not make sense for some of your compute workloads.
Your goal should be to gain a clear understanding of:
- What workloads are a good match for smaller LLMs that you run on your own hardware?
- What workloads are complex enough to warrant exploratory subscriptions to high cost frontier models?
- If you have high volume high complexity workloads, are they generating sufficient revenue to pay for inflated compute costs while also delivering acceptable margins?
Know the point where it makes more sense to capitalize hardware vs carry ongoing cloud costs.
Bottom line: If you purchased hardware between the pandemic price spike and the AI price spike (roughly 2022-2025 Q1), you have a structural cost advantage others don't.
### Raise the Cost IQ of your team
Forward looking orgs are encouraging their technical teams to get familiar with what LLMs can be effectively run from owned hardware at different levels of scale:
- What can we run off a laptop?
- What can we run on low end servers?
- What can we run on high end servers?
- What absolutely requires and justifies the cost of OpenAI, Anthropic and the like?
This means encouraging teams to experiment with smaller LLMs to see what kind of performance they can squeeze out of non-cloud configurations.
For routine coding tasks—syntax completions, formatting suggestions, or code snippets—an 8-billion-parameter model can handle common patterns and syntax efficiently. Programming and scripting languages have well documented, finite rules that smaller models can manage adequately.
If developers in your org need complex reasoning—like understanding project-wide architecture, cross-file logic, or nuanced refactoring—then larger models can offer deeper insights. But if the tasks are mostly “fill in this function” or “suggest this loop,” a local model could be a great cost-saving baseline. Start local—and if you hit limitations, scale up selectively.
### Takeaways
The pervasive thought pattern of 2024-2025 - *jump in with both feet, costs don't matter* \- hasn't aged well. It's time for teams to build their internal expertise in how to match compute workloads against the most cost effective compute - vs blindly subscribing to whatever the cloud vendors are offering.
Decisions about how to purchase compute - when local is enough and when to scale up - need to be informed by hands on experimentation. This will allow you to approach AI investments armed with clear comparisons, not guesswork. It will also boost your team's resilience and flexibility, so you can adapt as workloads - and their economics - continue to evolve.
Have a great weekend, and a wonderful week ahead.
Ralph
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### Oscillating Mkts: Blue Owl, Citrini AI 2028, $2B a week...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/oscillating-mkts-blue-owl-citrini-ai-2028-2b-a-week-2/
Last updated: 2026-02-27T03:06:23.000Z
*3 different signals, 1 big problem*
S3T PodCast Feb 27, 2026
0:00
/801.0448979591837
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## 🤢Capital has a bad week
Three seemingly distinct signals:
- Rising anxiety around Blue Owl and private credit,
- JPMorgan’s opaque $2B-per-week investment push, and
- The tech selloff triggered by AI crash predictions —
...are best understood as expressions of the same structural tension within the capital system.
## 🦉The Week’s Headlines: What Happened?
### 1\. Blue Owl / Private Credit Stress Signals
Recent coverage highlighted investor concerns around liquidity, credit exposure, and structured private credit vehicles — particularly as software-sector repricing and broader economic uncertainty ripple into private markets.
- [Business Insider – Private Credit Pressure and Blue Owl Developments](https://www.businessinsider.com/private-credit-crisis-blue-owl-wall-street-owl-stock-2026-2?ref=s3t.org)
- [Barron’s – Alternative Managers, Software Valuations, and AI-Linked Credit Exposure](https://www.barrons.com/articles/alternative-managers-woes-private-credit-software-ai-a17b8554?ref=s3t.org)
- [Swiss Re Institute – Insured Catastrophe Losses Exceeding $100B Annually](https://www.swissre.com/press-release/2025-marks-sixth-year-insured-natural-catastrophe-losses-exceed-USD-100-billion-finds-Swiss-Re-Institute/f710c271-58c8-4c48-9004-05203634d1e0?ref=s3t.org)
---
### 2\. JPMorgan’s $2B-Per-Week Investment Strategy
Jamie Dimon signaled a major ongoing capital deployment strategy aimed at maintaining competitive advantage, while offering limited disclosure on allocation specifics — raising governance and transparency questions.
- [Financial Times – JPMorgan Strategy and Shareholder Reaction](https://www.ft.com/content/05527e62-1ba3-486d-a4c7-66dd0ccdccad?ref=s3t.org)
- [JPMorgan Investor Relations – Primary Source Materials](https://www.jpmorganchase.com/ir?ref=s3t.org)
---
### 3\. Tech Selloff Linked to AI Crash Scenario
A widely circulated scenario outlining AI-driven unemployment and systemic market stress contributed to volatility in AI-exposed equities.
- [Citrini Research – “2028 Global Intelligence Crisis” Scenario](https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic?ref=s3t.org)
- [Federal Reserve – Distributional Financial Accounts (Wealth Concentration Data)](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/efa/efa-distributional-financial-accounts.htm)
- [U.S. Treasury – Federal Revenue Composition (Wage-Tax Context)](https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/government-revenue/?ref=s3t.org)
## 🧵The Common Thread
At first glance this looks like investors reacting to rising volatility in private credit portfolios, shareholders having discomfort with large undisclosed strategic spending, and sharp repricing of AI-exposed equities. Zoom in and you'll see a common thread: capital concentration at a rarified upper percentile of the economy, but scarcity at the operating layer of the economy.
### Private Credit's honeymoon is over
As banks tightened lending standards in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis, Private Credit expanded rapidly, filling a funding gap with yield-seeking capital. Investors (pension funds, endowments, sovereign wealth, insurers, family offices, etc) saw private credit as a source of higher yields, but these investments carry risks that become more pronounced during economic stress.
That growth occurred alongside rising climate-related insurance losses, tighter retrocession capacity, and increasing regulatory scrutiny of non-bank financial institutions. As reinsurers retreat and capital reserve requirements rise, alternative asset managers absorb more volatility. The prevailing narrative — that private credit is more flexible and safer than traditional banking — is now being tested by liquidity mismatches and layered risk structures. In an environment of high government debt, persistent inflation, and wealth concentrated among the top 1–3%, capital remains plentiful, **but the risk it carries is becoming more opaque.**
### JPMorgan’s spending posture reflects a related dynamic
With strong capital levels but softer loan demand amid higher rates, the growth engine is moving from traditional lending toward technology, data, and AI-driven competitive advantage. The tension between shareholder transparency and strategic secrecy highlights a broader governance question: when productive borrowers are harder to find, financial institutions increasingly deploy capital into defensive moat-building rather than credit expansion. Excess deposits accumulated during quantitative easing must earn returns, and if AI compresses margins or employment, the tax base that underwrites fiscal stability could weaken, amplifying systemic sensitivity.
### AI has markets oscillating between two extremes
The tech selloff tied to AI crash scenarios underscores how narrative volatility now functions as a market risk factor in its own right. Equity gains have been concentrated in mega-cap technology firms, making valuations highly sensitive to shifts in earnings assumptions.
If - as foretold in the [now famous Citrini post](https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic?ref=s3t.org) \- AI materially disrupts mid-skill employment, the implications extend beyond equity markets: wage-dependent tax systems face pressure, deficits widen, and currency stability becomes more fragile. **Markets are oscillating between two poles — AI as productivity miracle versus AI as social and fiscal shock** — and that oscillation reflects a deeper feedback loop. When capital concentration increases while wage growth and policy headroom diminish, volatility becomes structural rather than episodic.
## 🪷a macro haiku
Ok not really a properly structured haiku...
- Climate & Insurance: Retrocession capacity tightening, Climate losses increasing capital volatility, Private credit and alternative managers absorbing displaced risk
- Fiscal Fragility: Government debt growing faster than GDP, Inflation + tariffs distort cost structures, Tax base structurally vulnerable to wage displacement
- Wealth Concentration: Top 1–3% accumulating capital, Capital chasing yield in private markets, Broader population exposed to wage instability
...but it is short and sweet.
## The Ecosystem Analogy - how to think about what's going on
There are 3 related factors playing out inside the overall capital system:
1. Capital owners hold an extremely high concentration of wealth
2. Capital owners are reliant ultimately on wage earners (who hold a small percentage of wealth) for continued growth.
3. Governments have been able to alleviate or mask this tension via subsidies and tax breaks to corporations but most governments seem to be running out of headroom for this kind of policy.
Economies are like ecosystems. In ecosystems, the circulation of water is important.
In economies, the circulation of wealth is important.
Wealth circulation happens via:
- Jobs (wages)
- Tax policy,
- Subsidies or
- Charitable donations
- Investment
When these methods fail (or are used improperly) you end up with wealth concentration.
In the US currently all 5 methods of wealth circulation are being constrained:
- Reduced subsidies (ACA and other, in part due to policy preferences and in part due to rising government debt)
- Reduced taxes (tax breaks)
- Reduced incentives for charitable donations (in an apparent attempt to curtail funds to perceived enemies)
- Reduced jobs - thanks to AI
- Investments are becoming circular - also thanks to AI
Imagine a landscape where there is one large lake and one small dwindling water hole. No streams, or rivers, no evaporation or rainfall...in other words no circulation of water.
That's a rough analogy of what happens with wealth becomes concentrated among the top 5%. It becomes harder and harder to grow that wealth. **You can't expect to continue to grow the size of a large lake by draining the dwindling watering holes.**
In today's economy the upper 10% is searching for a way to continue growth off the portion of the economy that has the least wealth and flat, if not declining wages.
Wealth holders may keep adding zeros to the ends of their fund amounts. But that's *inflation* at work, not value creation.
### It all comes back to capital
This week three seemingly unrelated stories, Blue Owl, JPMorgan, tech selloff turn out to be signals of the same structural tension inside the capital system. Wealth is increasingly concentrated at the top, yet that capital ultimately depends on wage earners, borrowers, and stable policy frameworks for growth. The capital system is becoming more fragile and *narrative-driven*. Volatility isn't episodic any more, it's becoming structural.
So yes Capital is having a rough time. But that doesn't mean you have to. Sign up for S3T full access and learn the Signal to Skills checklist of how to position your team for success during these turbulent times.
You'll also learn how to use the Five Layers of Strategic Awareness: to look past headlines and see the underlying realities — incentives, governance, capital concentration, fiscal constraints, and narrative shifts — that actually drive outcomes. When you understand these layers, you don’t chase noise. You build strategic advantage.
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### What leaders & investors need to know about the changing economics of AI compute
URL: https://www.s3t.org/what-leaders-investors-need-to-know-about-the-changing-economics-of-ai-compute/
Last updated: 2026-02-20T01:08:43.000Z
In the US, the AI titans (OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, etc) are threatening to disrupt Fortune 1000 incumbents via offerings like Cowork and Altruist. But in turn - new low cost models from China (and there will be others no doubt) are threatening the AI titans.
At the same time, AI is turning into a political issue for the US midterm elections. But this is more than US-China geopolitics as usual. **Three competing AI architecture patterns are emerging. Leaders and investors alike need to understand their differences, and the implications for ROI.**
S3T PodCast Feb 19, 2026
0:00
/757.9689795918367
1×
## First, the latest low cost models from DeepSeek's competitors...
This week (of February 15) saw the rollout of a number of low cost high performing models from China. Last year around this time, Deep Seek shocked the world with its models showing that *you don't have to be a Silicon Valley giant to turn out a respectable model.* This year the rest of the competitive field are showing what they can do.
Four are particularly notable:
### Moonshot AI — **Kimi-1.6 / Kimi-Reasoner**
• Official model portal: [https://kimi.moonshot.cn](https://kimi.moonshot.cn/?ref=s3t.org)
• Model listings & weights (Hugging Face): [https://huggingface.co/moonshotai](https://huggingface.co/moonshotai?ref=s3t.org)
Moonshot expanded its Kimi family into reasoning-tuned models optimized for long-context and coding agents, emphasizing *cost-efficient inference* and enterprise deployment rather than leaderboard performance. The company is explicitly targeting real-world task completion per dollar following the efficiency model demonstrated by DeepSeek.
🔥Kimi also just released a [one-click cloud deployment for OpenClaw](https://medium.com/@CodeCoup/kimi-claw-kimi-just-put-openclaw-in-your-browser-104c634302d1?ref=s3t.org).
---
### Zhipu AI — **GLM-4-Open**
• Model page: [https://open.bigmodel.cn](https://open.bigmodel.cn/?ref=s3t.org)
• Hugging Face release: [https://huggingface.co/THUDM](https://huggingface.co/THUDM?ref=s3t.org)
• Academic background (Tsinghua GLM research): [https://arxiv.org/abs/2210.02414](https://arxiv.org/abs/2210.02414?ref=s3t.org)
Zhipu released an open-weights version of its GLM-4 reasoning model designed for *private datacenter and sovereign deployments*, allowing organizations to run a GPT-class system without reliance on U.S. cloud APIs. The project comes from the Tsinghua University GLM research lineage, one of China’s most mature alternative foundation-model ecosystems.
---
### 01.AI — **Yi-Large-MoE-Open**
• Model repository: [https://huggingface.co/01-ai](https://huggingface.co/01-ai?ref=s3t.org)
• Company announcement: [https://01.ai](https://01.ai/?ref=s3t.org)
01.AI (Kai-Fu Lee’s lab) released mixture-of-experts Yi variants aimed at enterprise self-hosting, positioning them as a multilingual, fine-tunable alternative to Meta’s Llama models. The notable feature is *enterprise-friendly licensing plus efficient inference*, making the models practical for regulated industries.
---
### Alibaba Cloud — **Qwen-MoE-Open expansion**
• Official Qwen documentation: [https://qwenlm.github.io](https://qwenlm.github.io/?ref=s3t.org)
• Model weights: [https://huggingface.co/Qwen](https://huggingface.co/Qwen?ref=s3t.org)
• Technical paper: [https://arxiv.org/abs/2309.16609](https://arxiv.org/abs/2309.16609?ref=s3t.org)
Alibaba expanded its open Qwen family with mixture-of-experts variants and smaller deployable builds, focusing on on-prem and hybrid-cloud usage rather than pure cloud APIs. The strategic angle is providing a *complete enterprise AI stack* that customers can operate at predictable cost.
These releases all follow the same playbook: open or open-weights reasoning models + mixture-of-experts efficiency + local deployment.
### The economic assumptions of US AI tech giants now under scrutiny
In the US, the AI leaders (Anthropic, Meta, OpenAI, Microsoft) have largely followed a conventional wisdom about ROI model:
- Training larger models on enormous hyperscaler training clusters will create durable competitive advantage, and barriers to entry for other players.
- Large centralized platforms (enterprise focused or social focused) will host millions of users who come into walled gardens and use services there.
- Platform owners extract fees from users based on consumption
- Consumption based fees enable a return on investment for the exorbitant data center buildouts and energy consumption.
**All four points of this thesis may be at risk of disruption:** If low cost, high-performing models can be trained without hyper scale infrastructure and best-in-class chips, and if they can run on one's own hardware, then why would anyone continue to pay token fees to a large centralized player?
Kristin O’Donoghue [notes here](https://www.profgmarkets.com/p/why-does-it-feel-like-everyone-under-30-is-a-founder?ref=s3t.org) that the number of U.S. professionals adopting the title of “founder” on LinkedIn increased 69% in 2025 and is up 300% since 2022\. The average age of entrepreneurs is dropping as AI speeds up key aspects of the founder's role.
*How many of these are paying for subscriptions to OpenAI or Anthropic vs. running open weights LLMs on their own hardware?*
In my own experimentation, I'm already beginning to move towards running models on my own hardware in order to avoid fees and control spend, and there is anecdotal evidence that other organizations are leaning in the same direction.
### So is this just the geopolitical AI arms race playing out?
In past editions of S3T we've noted AI a geopolitics arms race to secure AI dominance (for military superiority and economic flourishing) and to secure the necessary energy, materials, technology and talent to win, or at least be among the winners. You certainly could view these recent model releases as China's AI ecosystem following a geopolitical playbook - motivated in part by necessity (tech sanctions) and opportunism - that undermines US AI companies.
That may be accurate on some level, but **there's actually something more** going on...
### 3 AI architecture patterns are emerging:
OpenAI, Anthropic, and Chinese AI companies are actually driving **three competing philosophies of AI compute** \- and notice how they differ in terms of *where intelligence lives* and *where data lives*:
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### 🎲 Feb 13: Crypto's growing pains
URL: https://www.s3t.org/feb-13-2026/
Last updated: 2026-02-13T02:12:55.000Z
---
S3T PodCast Feb 13 2026
0:00
/885.76
1×
🎧 Listen here [or on Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/episode/24MGSypVjxqbR7SfQVvdEb?si=zwAAtntcQN2csDeK7WQC0g&ref=s3t.org)
## 🎲 Why Does Crypto Suddenly Feel Unlucky?
*It was all going so well....*
If you are a **developer**, you may be wondering whether it is still worth investing time learning blockchain and crypto technologies — or whether the market is quietly moving on to something else.
If you are an **entrepreneur**, you may be trying to decide whether crypto-based architectures belong in your next product at all, or whether the opportunity now lies somewhere adjacent to crypto rather than inside it.
If you are an **investor**, you are likely asking a different question:
why are prices falling in areas that were supposed to be the next wave of growth, and why does capital suddenly seem to be flowing toward tokenization, payments, and institutions instead of the alt-coin ecosystem?
And if you are simply **curious about all the attention crypto continues to receive**, you may feel a deeper confusion: crypto was supposed to replace banks, disrupt Big Tech, and create a new internet — yet the biggest activity today seems to involve asset managers, payment rails, and settlement systems.
We are going to walk through a sketch of what is actually happening inside the crypto market right now — not the headlines, but the structural shift — so you can understand how the technology is evolving and why this space may suddenly feel so unfamiliar.
Because some strong headwinds are forcing new directions for crypto. But its not all bad...
---
## The Crypto Alt-coin pattern is broken
For years crypto bull markets seemed to adhere to a predictable 3 phase pattern:
1. Bitcoin halving (halving the rate of rewards for miners)
2. Bitcoin bull market
3. Alt-coin bull market
(Alt-coin = lesser known cryptocurrencies with smaller market caps).
If you think about it, it kind of made sense: the halving increased the *scarcity* of Bitcoin, a stark reminder that - unlike government issued currencies, Bitcoin is programmed for controlled scarcity and therefore inflation resistant in ways that dollars and other government issued currencies can never be.
Bitcoin bull runs spawned excitement for the overall crypto sector, inciting curiosity and investment into *other* crypto assets (the so-called alt-coins). As Bitcoin reached new all time highs, investors would collect profits and pump them into alt-coins, which in turn would also rise. Investors learned to expect and leverage this seemingly reliable pattern. Bitcoin bull run, then alt-coin bull run.
However, as [NLW noted in this recent podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-breakdown/id1438693620?i=1000745292400&ref=s3t.org), this old familiar pattern definitely did *not* play out in 2025\.
This is an important inflection point for the digital-asset market. So what is going on?
## 4 Headwinds for Crypto
### #1\. Coinbase and other exchanges are driving a dilution effect
Coinbase has rolled out stocks, futures and sports-betting all while continuing to roll out a variety of alt coins. This week alone several were green lighted. Potential investors are now confronted with an ever widening array of things to do with their money (many of which cannot seriously be considered investments).
### #2\. Tokenization of everything pits Digital Gold against Real Gold
PAXgold (a tokenized way to buy and sell gold) may be eroding the narrative of Bitcoin as "digital gold". Unlike Bitcoin, PAXgold's value is pegged to the current price of gold, and has seen strong adoption even as Bitcoin prices are sagging. So does this mean that bitcoin will see a mass exodus as investors move to tokenized offerings like PAX? Maybe.
### #3\. The ratio of Maverick to Mainstream investors has flipped
Back in 2021 I wrote that crypto investors could be categorized as either [Mavericks or Mainstreamers](https://www.s3t.org/s3t-1-mavericks-mainstreamers-moths-and-manta-rays-crypto-volatility-mid-year-review-inflation-math-based-trust-covid-risk-calc/).
- Mavericks = - the original diehard Bitcoin (and altcoin) HODLrs. Mavericks who were the original investors in Bitcoin, recognized it was the first form of money that was not sanctioned or controlled by a government. They recognized an opportunity. These conviction driven investors believe central banks and fiat currencies are fatally flawed and that crypto offers a better future that is well worth the risk and volatility.
- Mainstreamers - the newer entrants (institutional and retail investors) who didn’t want to miss out on huge gains they were hearing about. Today's Bitcoin investors may be largely investing out of FOMO, or just because their RIA told them it was a good idea.
My expectation (not original with me - held by others too) was that conviction driven investors (Mavericks) would eventually be outnumbered by mainstream investors, and as this happened the market economics and behavior of the crypto market would change. Markets after all are mirrors of human psychology.
We are in an era of where the investors with conviction have been outnumbered by the investors who have no long term conviction or loyalty to Bitcoin or any asset for that matter. They will invest based on impulse, groupthink or what influential figures tell them.
### #4\. Functional Alt-Coin projects have had limited success so far
Functional alt-coins (does NOT include non-functional meme-coins like Doge etc) create participation models that allow individuals to take a stake in a decentralized application or platform. Some of these are projects have some interesting potential A significant portion of functional alt-coin projects — like Render and Helium — were built as direct challenges to traditional centralized technology platforms. Their core thesis was that centralized social media and content platforms fostered an imbalance where users and creators generated the activity, data, and content that made the platforms viable, but platform owners took the lion's share of the economic returns.
Whether or not one agrees with the critique, this grievance-driven narrative became a primary catalyst for investment and entrepreneurship across the alt-coin sector. Unfortunately, it turns out that many of these grievance-driven business cases were not based on solid due diligence required to define a durable business model...or at a minimum have encountered unforeseen challenges.
Do some people want to buy dash cams that allow them to contribute to an alternative to Google Maps? Maybe. But what are the odds that they'll earn enough crypto tokens to make this worth while? What are the odds that there will be enough users to eventually sustain a viable business model? Not good. Not as long as Apple and Google own the starting point for maps (phones).
*Retail investors who bought into these ideas have generally not had a good experience.*
**Case in point:** back around 2021 Coinbase launched a music focused cryptocurrency called Audius (AUDIO) which in the years since has **lost 98% of its value** (snapshot of this weeks price below).
This however did not dissuade Coinbase from greenlighting another music cryptocurrency RaveDAO (RAVE) just this week. At time of writing it was down 10% from its original price.
## The next maturation cycle
Crypto is here to stay but its maturation is not going to necessarily trace the expectations and ideologies of the early years. The Alt-coin projects mentioned above tend to cast crypto as a replacement for *consumer applications*. It may yet turn out to be "the new internet that replaces companies" like some Decentralized Autonomous Organization advocates have suggested.
But what is more likely - and easily observable right now - is that crypto is evolving into a **financial infrastructure technology**, not so much a consumer application. Think of it as an upgrade to the financial system, not necessarily a replacement of the financial system. Crypto is not disappearing. It is moving down the stack.
And it is going through the difficult and not fun process of maturing and diversifying.
- Crypto is getting serious about Post Quantum Security - [Ethereum Foundation](https://www.theblock.co/post/386938/ethereum-foundation-forms-post-quantum-security-team-adds-1-million-research-prize?ref=s3t.org) and [Coinbase](https://www.coinbase.com/blog/coinbase-establishes-independent-advisory-board-on-quantum-computing-and-blockchain?ref=s3t.org) both announce initiatives.
- [Crypto Payments for AI Agents](https://www.s3t.org/crypto-payments-for-ai-agents/) represent the emergence of a new competitive field. The battle for control of the next generation of payments — especially in the context of AI-driven applications — is heating up.
Maturing technologies tend to show three characteristics:
1. Institutions begin using it
2. Regulators begin defining it
3. The use cases shift from speculation to efficiency
Crypto is now showing all three.
### Positioning
For participants in this space — developers, founders, and investors alike — these developments are not a call for abandonment but realism. Crypto is maturing, and maturing markets behave less like movements and more like industries. Some narratives will fail, some architectures will persist, and others will find applications very different from what was originally imagined.
The appropriate posture now is eyes wide open: build and invest with clear-eyed expectations. Expect long stretches of unfavorable pricing. Be prepared to pivot as real economic use cases reveal themselves. Bear markets are not interruptions to the technology cycle; they are the mechanism through which durable models are discovered and weaker ones are filtered out.
---
*What to watch for next week: China is set to release a new set of low cost AI models during the annual holiday season that starts Feb 15\. We will delve into how the economics of AI consumption may be changing.*
---
###
**\[S3T playbooks\]**
- [Spend Wisely in a Hype-Driven World](https://www.s3t.org/spendwisely/)
- [Gaining Buy-in for Data Modernization](https://www.s3t.org/s3t-playbook-data-modernization/)
- [Flipping the Script: Understanding and Changing Internal & Macro Narratives](https://www.s3t.org/changing-internal-and-macro-narratives/)
- [Shift to effective gatekeeping in the age of generative AI](https://www.s3t.org/genai-supervisory-workloads/)
- [How to Stop Zombie Projects from Sapping your Focus and Resources](https://www.s3t.org/stop-zombie-projects/)
- [Harmonize Different Kinds of Expertise to Achieve Success](https://www.s3t.org/harmonize-expertise/)
- [Addressing issues related to uneven accountability](https://www.s3t.org/disabling-accountability-shields/)
- [Validating AI use cases](https://www.s3t.org/validating-ai-use-cases/)
- [6 Proven Ways to Resolve Conflicts](https://www.s3t.org/6-ways-to-resolve-conflicts/)
See [Full List of S3T Playbooks](https://www.s3t.org/playbooks/)
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### Bipartisan recession watch, growth without jobs, and new worries for AI titans
URL: https://www.s3t.org/bipartisan-recession-watch-growth-without-jobs-and-new-worries-for-ai-titans/
Last updated: 2026-02-06T03:19:23.000Z
S3T PodCast Feb 6 2026
0:00
/836.7281632653061
1×
🎧 Listen here [or on Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/episode/1sKp4twDRfFO2t9OH572dI?si=OXBROEaISLOapRZvjE5ToA&nd=1&dlsi=93b14a35c7a74217&ref=s3t.org)
*For a while now we have worried that Big Techs version of AI would have a large impact on jobs and the economy. Here in Q1 new economic data offers a glimpse of how that impact is starting to play out.*
*At the same we’re seeing the rise of a new AI contender that could have a disruptive impact on Big Tech. Of course I’m talking about Clawdbot, recently renamed to OpenClaw.*
*Let’s start with the economic data.*
## 🇺🇸A Bi-Partisan Recession Watch is Underway
In Jan 2026, [Consumer confidence fell to a 12 year low](https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/?ref=s3t.org). Additional insights in the same readout:
- **Consumer Expectations Index fell into recession territory**\- consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and jobs fell by 9.5 points to 65.1 (Readings below 80 signal coming recession).
- Data shows that **sentiments among both Republicans and Democrats have been declining since Oct 2025.**
In Q4 2025, **Moody Analytics classified 22 US states as being in recession** driven by manufacturing weakness, housing affordability stress, and uneven job markets. No broader revision has yet been published in Q1 2026\. See [Fortune](https://fortune.com/2025/10/09/america-feels-recession-state-dependent-income-cohort-moody-zandi/?ref=s3t.org) and [Yahoo Finance interview](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/economist-mark-zandi-says-22-125900315.html?ref=s3t.org).
Related: the US economy is increasingly exposed to international sentiment: [this new Economist piece details](https://www.economist.com/leaders/2026/02/05/the-age-of-a-volatile-falling-dollar-has-dawned?ref=s3t.org) international disappointment w the devalued and increasingly volatile dollar.
## 🎈Growth without jobs: How the impact of AI is starting to show up
In November 2025, the [St Louis Fed report on GenAI Adoption](https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/nov/state-generative-ai-adoption-2025?ref=s3t.org) suggested GenAI may be creating time savings "equivalent to 1.6% of all work hours" with high adopters experiencing higher productivity growth. At the time, these were presented as *tentative* findings.
Now however we may be starting to see more tangible impacts.
**As of Jan 2026, US manufacturing marked 5 straight months of *growth* even though manufacturing employment has *contracted* for 28 months straight** (since Sept. 2023) as noted in the latest [Havre economic brief](https://www.haver.com/economy-in-brief?ref=s3t.org).
**In 2025, the US economy created just 584,000 jobs, down sharply from the 2 million jobs created in 2024.** See Bureau of Labor [Statistics Employment Situation Release](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm?ref=s3t.org).
- The number of people looking for full time employment but forced to take part time employment increased by 980,000 in 2025.
- This deceleration makes 2025 one of the slowest years for net job growth outside of recessionary periods.
This flattening job market may likely be seeing impacts from tariffs and or current US immigration policy. **But AI adoption may also be creating conditions that reduce the number of workers needed per business function.**
---
## 🦞AI’s Lobster Bake
### *Lobster themed AI innovations give us a glimpse of AI-driven operations*
This week I did a build-out of a simple AI ecosystem using [**OpenClaw**](https://openclaw.ai/?ref=s3t.org), a.k.a Clawdbot (until Anthropic complained) then Moltbot (because lobsters molt, but this didn't roll off the rough off the tongue) and finally Open Claw.
☢️ Before we go any further, important warning: ****there are serious security risks** with this class of technology. OpenClaw basically gets full control of whatever it's installed on. Run it only on machines that do ****not** have sensitive data or critical services.
That said—this is potentially **game-changer technology**.
My early read: this is what AI for **operations** looks like—not just analytics. And the OpenClaw architecture gives companies real flexibility in how you decide to run and operate systems - ie alternatives to the OpenAI and Anthropic ecosystems.
---
## What I Tested in a Small OpenClaw Ecosystem
Notes and findings from a few things I was able to test quickly.
### Plain-language business rules → live execution
You can write, store, and execute **plain-language business rules and templates**. You decide where they live, how OpenClaw finds them, and when they run. When triggered, they execute and write outputs wherever you specify.
Early observation: this **eliminates the need** to write business-rule documents for humans and then separately translate them into code for machines. You write simple language rules once, and the framework puts them to work—no translation step required.
### Flexible user interfaces (thin clients)
You can use **any thin client** you want as the interface. For my experiments, I just used a popular chat app because it was fast. But you could easily put a custom website or UI layer in front of an OpenClaw-based solution.
In fact, you could imagine a single central platform, with multiple companies or constituencies using it—each with their own front end tailored to their own users.
### Model flexibility (and model independence)
It was easy to swap between different models (Gemini, Claude, etc.). Long term, I expect many OpenClaw users will plug in **their own dedicated models**, running on **their own hardware**, rather than relying on public providers.
Potentially an important shift.
### Visual input → reduced paperwork
Using the chat interface, I could take a picture of objects and/or text on it. OpenClaw read it and described it accurately.
This has obvious implications for reducing paperwork and manual processes—especially in operational environments that still rely on scanned documents, forms, and images.
---
## The Scary Part: System Awareness
On the unsettling side, OpenClaw was able to return **frighteningly detailed information** about the system it was running on.
I could not get it to locate the system geographically, which is interesting—and probably deserves more testing. It’s hard for me to believe there’s a permanent, hard blocker there.
This reinforces the earlier point: **sandbox**.
---
## Moltbook Identity: A Universal Identity Layer for AI Agents
One interesting idea that emerged from the "Moltbook" derivative of the Open Claw tech is the [security challenged Moltbook](https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/moltbook-social-media-site-ai-agents-had-big-security-hole-cyber-firm-wiz-says-2026-02-02/?ref=s3t.org). But part of this experiment spawned the concept of **Moltbook Identity**—a universal identity layer for AI agents. [See Developer pages here](https://www.moltbook.com/developers?ref=s3t.org).
Instead of creating new accounts everywhere, AI agents authenticate using Moltbook. One feature I really like: it carries a **karma / reputation score**. That means you could set rules like:
> *If Karma < 400, don’t authenticate.*
That’s a simple but powerful control mechanism for agent-to-system interaction.
---
## A Clear Warning (Again)
At its core, this is basically:
> **Every AI agent gets its own computer—and can do whatever it wants with it.**
If you download and run OpenClaw, make sure it’s on a sandbox machine that does **not** contain files or services you care about. To function fully, the agent must have elevated privileges.
If you’re developing a solution in this space, also be aware of **supply-chain risk**. OpenClaw uses Model Context Protocol to interact with a growing number of third-party services. That’s powerful—and risky.
---
## Strategic Implications
The emergence of Open Claw (and its underlying architecture) could pose real challenges for centralized AI players who have been banking on the idea that their infrastructure will be THE platform where the world runs e-commerce and operations. OpenClaw is proof that **very compelling alternatives** are emerging.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
OpenClaw may be an early indicator of a phase where **less-capitalized, non-“Magnificent Seven” players** begin to surface with genuinely attractive operational AI options.
Something worth watching closely.
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### With AI, solution delivery goes vertical
URL: https://www.s3t.org/with-ai-solution-delivery-goes-vertical/
Last updated: 2026-02-21T08:25:13.000Z
*The orderly linear process for delivering solutions is officially obsolete. 5 Implications to get ahead of ASAP.*
S3T PodCast Jan 30 2026
0:00
/652.4604081632654
1×
*(*[*Also published on Spotify*](https://spotifycreators-web.app.link/e/EUTBJPjcl0b?ref=s3t.org)*)*
## **The shift from horizontal to vertical solution delivery: understand this and you'll be fine...**
If you are in a regulated or legacy company you are used to delivering solutions and managing your initiatives via a linear *horizontal* processes:
1. Recognize a business need
2. Design and deliver/buy/implement a solution
3. Inevitably, discover that - during the 4-12 months required for Steps 1-2 - the world has moved on, and relevance now demands something better.
Something like this:
The previous status-quo—moving from idea to delivery to value realization—followed this controlled linear horizontal process.
Initiatives flowed through sequential gates for funding, architecture, security, testing, and operational readiness. Each gate was staffed by specialists who expected work to arrive in a steady, first-in/first-out queue, and were empowered to create backlogs extending months or even years whenever demand exceeded capacity.
Until now, most companies could get away with putting those new demands on a backlog for the next planning or budget cycle. **Not a safe bet going forward.**
Managers were expected to gatekeep scarce resources- and the scarcest of all these resources were the developers and cloud engineers who write code and implemented solutions.
New ideas for initiatives were expected to wait their turn in line, for an orderly intake process, project charge codes and the assignment of scarce resources to do the work, of course assuming these resources where actually available to do the work. If they were not available then the project was put on hold until later.
In 2026, this approach is obsolete.
## Introducing *vertical* delivery
AI coding and design tools have dramatically compressed the idea-to-execution cycle. Instead of a slow, *horizontal* march through gated reviews, the delivery process increasingly looks **vertical**: multiple viable solutions being *simultaneously* built, tested, and iterated in parallel by small teams—or even individuals—all using AI-augmented development tools:
Where the old model forced idea holders to wait in line for scarce software vendors or development capacity, the new reality enables rapid experimentation and solution creation *upfront*. **AI coding tools have literally deleted scarcity from software development.**
The primary constraint is no longer *“can we fund the implementation?”* but rather: Can governance, review, and value-realization models can keep pace with the implementation *that is already happening.*
**The bottleneck now is not development - its *selection*. Which ones deserve further investment?**
(Kind of like the startup world.)
Instead of working thru business requirements documents and program kickoff PowerPoints, enterprise project teams are now deluged with working demos and MVPs all waiting to be cleared for take-off. Some of which already may have business customers using them. Which ones go first? Which ones have the strongest business cases? Who will own and operate them?
This is going to have a curious and perhaps unexpected effect on organizations:
- We previously thought AI would drive a need to upskill our developers. But the good developers on your team have already upskilled themselves. (Ask them what they built at home, that they couldn't build at work.)
- Instead, we need to upskill our *business leaders*, so they are not perpetually stuck articulating business requirements from past eras. AI will force business organizations to become active managers who have *intellectual* ownership - not just ownership in title - of the operations over which they preside. Intellectual ownership of both the current business operations, but most importantly the *future versions* of those operations - that will be required sooner than we think.
This is how you prepare leaders to be ready to vet the abundant sets of solutions being generated by AI empowered creators in their organizations, and select the solutions that will bring the best competitive advantages.
**The era of the leader as professional check writer to vendors and consultants is officially over.** Leaders will no longer be able to get by with:
- Delegating thinking to consultants
- Delegating work to contractors
- Delegating problems to vendors
AI will force organizational leaders to become active managers who can translate business needs into inputs that AI agents and systems will immediately output solutions to. Which will immediately require **relevant** **expertise** to vet, refine and use.
**Its time to re-center leadership on intellectual ownership and co-creation.**
Every senior leader must be able to:
- explain in detail how their area works today
- describe how it *must* work next
- work alongside forward deployed engineers to help build AI generated solutions that move rapidly toward "how it must work next" and do so in a way that is safe, secure and cost effective.
Leaders that can't or won't do this **are putting their organizations at risk.**
Going forward, most companies - even the big regulated comfortable ones - won't have margins to tolerate passive delegation-driven management. Leaders will have to regain intellectual ownership of their business areas and be the active managers, troubleshooters and problem solvers, working alongside tech partners to rapidly make things better.
The old way was much more comfortable. We always had someone else to blame.
- High costs? Yeah that vendor's expensive. We'll bring that up in the next quarterly review.
- Things moving too slow? Yeah well we have a new SOW and you know how the contracting process takes forever.
- Poor outcomes? Those IT folks.
These kinds of *accountability diffusers* have left the building.
The previous generation of business technology gave us a linear and horizontal delivery model that **optimized for scarcity and backlogs at the expense of speed.**
**AI driven development is now forcing a new model: Vertical delivery.** Vertical delivery optimizes for abundance and speed. AI doesn’t remove the need for leadership. But it does remove the excuses for not leading.
The exciting prospect is the opportunity to blur the line between business and IT and bring everyone together to work as co-creators. Multi-disciplinary teams bringing their respective skills and expertise to ensure rapidly built and refined solutions that are reliable, safe, secure and deliver high value advantage.
---
## AI & your Workforce: 5 Implications to Get Ahead of—ASAP
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### 🎮 2026 will demand teams to get to the next level - here's how...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/2026-will-demand-teams-to-get-to-the-next-level-heres-how/
Last updated: 2026-01-23T04:01:07.000Z
*You CAN take your team to the next level of performance IF you learn how to think like a game designer.*
S3T PodCast Jan 23 2026
0:00
/535.04
1×
🎧 Listen here [or on Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/episode/2lvoDL3GCv1zpTTZmQL6cy?si=CmgAc10QTyiPOCTY02FBCw&ref=s3t.org)
---
### In this Issue
- 🎮 The way leaders empower teams to move to the next level
- 🎁 4 lessons from top game designers to help you drive change and upskilling more effectively
- 🎁 Bonus Content: 3 Levels of AI Competency move your teams through
- **🆕 Macro Update - the** [**S3T Macro Panorama**](https://www.s3t.org/macro/)has been updated for Q1 2026\.
- 📈 See the [S3T Economic Dashboard](https://www.s3t.org/dashboard/) for the Top 500+ US & International real-time economic indicators.
---
## **Video game levels: Analogy for leaders who want to empower teams to move to the next level.**
Last week we talked about comfort zones and specifically the importance of getting out of one comfort zone so that you can move to another. You and your team have to keep moving to the next level. Getting comfortable at the next level of performance.
**But as leaders we have to *design and prepare that next level*. Today I want to introduce you to a key insight that will make a huge difference in your ability to help others succeed.**
Have you ever tried to play a video game that wasn't finished?...the rendering isn't done, objects are missing ...pretty frustrating, right?
Unfortunately many times leaders are not very good at structuring the next level and communicating it to their teams. They're fine at telling people that they need to get to the next level. But not so great at *creating success structures* that the teams can play through when they get to that level.
And before we go any further: Let's clarify why this is so important...because this might look pretty strange: we're talking about video games as if they have something to do with business strategy.
Well, they really do and here's how: If you want to be an effective change leader - someone who successfully leads change, and leads others to embrace change and move to the next level - You have to have the compassion and the empathy to take the time to show people how they can succeed and how they can be secure and comfortable - or confident is the better word - in that next level.
In a nutshell, that's what good game designers do. They lead you into environments **where you can gradually learn to succeed.** They don't throw something at you that is pure blinding chaos that you can't make any sense of and have no hope of making any progress in. Nobody would play that game.
Unfortunately many leaders who are comfortable with change and ambiguity can sometimes be surprisingly non-empathetic to others on their team who are not so comfortable with ambiguity and with change, but yet it's very important that we bring those people along.
It's kind of sad when these same leaders then complain that their people are being "resisters" and are refusing to embrace change. They're actually afraid that you're asking them to embrace failure - and not the cool "fail fast" hipster talk ...like *career derailing failure*. They literally don't know how they can deliver value if they go in the direction you're pointing them.
You're gonna have to put in the work to really structure the next operating environment so that it's clear to them how they can succeed.
- What do they have to do to actually learn and build the skills gradually
- What are the tools? What are the cheat codes? What are the things that are going to help them?
You've got to create that intentionally or else accept that people will resist and will not get on board. And it won't be because they're bad people. It'll be because you are trying to force them into something that they do not feel safe in and do not feel like they can succeed in.
For example, right now, many organizations are pushing their teams to "embrace AI" in their work. There is most likely a goal or perhaps an unspoken expectation in your organization that AI *must be used* to accelerate and optimize the work. There are most likely people with deep-seated fears that they won't be able to be successful. They probably need help learning how to prompt and check. They may need help learning which tools to use when.
You CAN take your team to the next level of performance IF you learn how to think like a game designer.
**If you want to move your team or your organization to the next level of performance, you'll have to learn how to think like a game designer.**
You'll need to take the time - Like a good game designer - to painstakingly think through and build out that next level in the game. Make it clear and concrete for everyone. What's the objective? What is the path? What are the rewarding moments along that path? What are the challenges along that path? How can they be overcome? What are the cheat codes or tactics that help you win? How do you know you won or finished?
**This takes some forethought and work. But it's actually one of the most vital and rewarding ways you can invest in your organization's success.**
So how do you structure the next level of the game in a way that your team your org can understand it, play thru it and be successful?
### Moment of Commitment
In our premium content we are going to unpack 4 lessons from top game designers that can help you lead your organization to the next level of performance.
But if you are not a paying member, there is still something very important for you to take away from this and apply this week:
**Commit that you will make time to do the following exercise *two times* this week:**
Spend time putting yourself in the shoes of those who are not comfortable with change and ambiguity. Think about all the oncoming change, and what it must look like and feel like from their perspective. Have a moment of empathy - think about how unsettling this must be. What its like to feel that you might be obsolete, or out of the loop. Let those feelings sit with you, and motivate you to invest the time to create doable next levels of performance.
Why do we do it 2 times? Because it will reinforce the empathy and increase your commitment level.
Keep learning with S3T Premium Content.
[Try Premium Free for 30 Days ](https://www.s3t.org/change-leadership-30-day-free-trial)
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### In 2026, its not enough to get out of your comfort zone...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/comfortzones/
Last updated: 2026-01-16T02:09:44.000Z
*Is your team exceptionally good at things that are quietly becoming irrelevant?*
S3T PodCast Jan 16, 2026
0:00
/502.3608163265306
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🎧 Listen here [or on Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/episode/6lyMNpiHj4wFz7eH165Amb?si=G3V4sSbJRFGMEviG4wvCAA&nd=1&dlsi=320501cc3f784dc5&ref=s3t.org)
## What leadership teams misunderstood about comfort zones and why it matters in 2026
New Year’s resolutions love the phrase *“Get out of your comfort zone!”*
As if your comfort zone is something shameful—like your bed. *GET OUT OF BED.*
But for most of us, our comfort zones are not places of laziness.
It's our current place of **proficiency**.
Its where:
- you know what you’re doing
- you can deliver value reliably
- you’ve built instincts, judgment, and pattern recognition
So the real problem isn’t comfort zones. **The real risk is being in the *wrong* comfort zone.**
In 2026 success doesn't come from discomfort for discomfort's own sake. Or leaping into the unknown just to prove something. Success comes from intentionally moving to the next way of working. Moving from one zone of competence to the *next*. **Think of comfort zones not as “places to leave,” but as *levels to climb*.**
### Why this matters in the accelerating world of tech and financial innovation in 2026?
Because from here on out, it's going to be a like a multi-level game. You get comfortable playing and winning at one level, then it's time to move to the next. These cycles are going to get shorter and shorter.
Photo by [João Ferrão](https://unsplash.com/@joaoscferrao?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
Think about this:
A football team isn’t “bad” just because it’s comfortable playing football. They're good at it! It's their game!
BUT what if suddenly they needed to play basketball? In that scenario, *staying excellent at football would be a liability*.
This is exactly where many industries—and leadership teams—are right now, as AI, crypto and other emerging technology create these non-negotiable requirements for new sets of skills.
### The most crucial questions to ask this week:
- What has *our industry* conditioned us to be good at?
- Will that still matter next year? In 3 years?
- Has our operating environment prepared us for what’s next—or optimized us for doing things that are becoming obsolete?
**Is your organization *exceptionally good at things that are quietly becoming irrelevant?***
---
## The 2026 Mindset Shift: Not 'get out of your comfort zone' but 'move to your ***Next*** comfort zone
Below are **four new comfort zones** leaders should deliberately move toward in 2026\. Not as aspirations—but as *places to get comfortable operating from*.
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### 2026 Outlooks are overlooking 7 fiduciary blind spots
URL: https://www.s3t.org/2026-outlooks-are-overlooking-7-fiduciary-blind-spots/
Last updated: 2026-01-10T19:54:57.000Z
S3T PodCast Jan 9, 2026
0:00
/538.0179591836735
1×
🎧Listen here [or on Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/episode/1rm5kij7qficv3lk6bJlNU?si=oBdi2i38QQqy8gsLrwN5ew&nd=1&dlsi=cee4a02bfd0a4629&ref=s3t.org)
*Happy Friday and Happy New Year S3T Readers! Hope you had some well deserved rest and reflection over the Holidays, and are re-energized to drive positive beneficial innovation in 2026!*
### The 2026 Predictions and Outlooks are all out now...
most with lofty visions of hoped for tech spend and bullish investments. Many do allude to the worrying developments of 2025 and storms on the future horizon. But decision makers and their teams need a crisp clear guide to the **blind spots** that could sink the best laid plans and strategies in 2026\.
Think of this as your **S3T Overlook Report** \- the blind spots you do not want to overlook - areas where you and your team may not be as aware and alert as you need to be in order to effectively navigate the opportunities - and the risks. You would not be alone in that: in fact, many are not aware of the blind spots that we'll be talking about today.
This newsletter and podcast will give you a preview of 2 of the top blind spots and how they could sabotage the ROI of key investments that you're making in 2026.
**🏆 Paid memberships have access to the** [**full 2026 Overlook Report here**](https://www.s3t.org/2026/) **\-** if you are not already a paid member, you can [quickly sign up here](https://www.s3t.org/change-leadership-30-day-free-trial).
One more very important point: We warn about these blind spots not to make you stop or even slow down. What we want to do is to understand issues that might not be getting enough coverage - where we might be lacking information and insight and need to be extra careful as we navigate. Where there may be pitfalls that we want to avoid as we find our way forward.
Let's dive in.
### Blind Spot #1\. Low-trust high-grievance fuels volatile behaviors
The [Edelman Trust Barometer](https://www.edelman.com/trust/2025/trust-barometer?ref=s3t.org) is an annual survey that gauges global levels and dimensions of trust. Keep in mind this survey spans 28 countries *not just the US*.
The latest report shows:
- **61% of respondents hold a moderate or higher sense of grievance against businesses, governments, the media and non-government organizations**
- 40% say they approve of hostile acts (disinformation, violence, vandalism) in order to force change.
- This trend has coincided with *increased spend* on securing the loyalty of customers - [15.7% growth in 2025 to $27B](https://rss.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/08/08/3130234/28124/en/United-States-Loyalty-Programs-Intelligence-Report-2025-Market-to-Grow-by-15-7-this-Year-AI-and-Gamification-Revolutionize-the-27-26-Bn-Market-Amid-Intensifying-Competition-Forecas.html?ref=s3t.org) \- and is expected to set new records in the years ahead.
Governments, businesses and the media all face an unprecedented social environment of high-grievance low-trust.
Takeaway: Leaders cannot afford to take business as usual approaches to brand, marketing and reputation. Leaders need to plan for prevalence of extreme behaviors and unpredictable decision-making in markets, purchase choices and elections - all driven by low-trust. Trust is based on accountability and human presence, something that ironically many customer-facing AI functions are actually obscuring.
Leaders willing to take contrarian positions and apply customer facing AI more carefully will reap a windfall of something that is not very abundant these days: Trust.
### Blind Spot #2\. AI misapplied is a value eraser
In 2024-2025 GenAI came to be misunderstood as the only form of AI that mattered. This misperception led to expensive detours for [95% of companies adopting GenAI](https://fortune.com/2025/08/18/mit-report-95-percent-generative-ai-pilots-at-companies-failing-cfo/?ref=s3t.org).
Many of these unnecessary detours were caused by one blind spot that most firms don't factor in: **AI Agents are not (yet) reliable at capturing intent.** Consider how many times you have called and talked to an AI agent that said, "I'm sorry I didn't get that", or an agent insisted on trying to solve the wrong problem for you even after you repeatedly asked for a human being.
If you don't have a reliable way of capturing the customers intent, then you have no objective basis for measuring the success rate and ROI of your AI agent.
In 2026, investors and boards should insist that leaders to be more specific about AI use cases *and what specific forms of AI best serve them* \- rather than invoking GenAI as the answer to everything.
Economics will force a reckoning, as expensive AI fails to stay ahead of cheaper AI.
To continue learning about Blindspots 3-7 [Click here to continue reading the entire report](https://www.s3t.org/2026/) or click the banner below.
[2026 Outlooks are overlooking 7 fiduciary blind spots...Get change leadership skills that give you an edge.S3TRalph Perrine](https://www.s3t.org/2026/)
## To summarize: 2026 will be a Bewildering Basket of Change -
You have the opportunity here to learn about critical blind spots that quietly undermine even the most thoughtful strategies. These are not failures of effort or intent—they are gaps in visibility that emerge during periods of rapid change, complexity, and uncertainty.
The fact that you are reading this signals you are already committed to making 2026 count—to leading with intention, protecting your team from avoidable risk, and steering toward real opportunity rather than inherited assumptions.
By helping your team recognize these overlooked dynamics early, you materially improve your odds of success. Strong change leadership in 2026 will belong to those who can see clearly, adapt quickly, and guide others with confidence through what is still forming.
As noted in Voronoi’s 2026 Prediction Bingo Card, 2026 promises to be a bewildering basket of change - and a fascinating year. Let's keep learning and moving forward together!
[Voronois 2026 Prediction Consensus](https://www.voronoiapp.com/other/Prediction-Consensus-What-the-Experts-See-Coming-in-2026-7392?ref=s3t.org)
*Which will be most impactful to you?*
---
### S3T Premium Content Updated for 2026
- [Signals: Top sources for forward looking economic & tech insights](https://www.s3t.org/signals/) \- *your curated short list of essential data, analysis, and trend sources for maintaining your own independent forward looking perspective.*
- Helping young adults get started will continue to be challenging. This [Personal Finance toolkit](https://www.s3t.org/pf/) can help them learn how to plan and manage their path to financial literacy and security.
---
*Opinions and views expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### 2025 in review: broken assumptions, radical departures that set the stage for 2026
URL: https://www.s3t.org/2025-in-review-broken-assumptions-radical-departures-that-set-the-stage-for-2026/
Last updated: 2025-12-19T04:27:26.000Z
*Do we want a world run by Artificial Intelligence or Accountable Intelligence?*
S3T PodCast Dec 19, 2025
0:00
/1226.0832653061225
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🎧 Listen here [or on Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/episode/0EynRqkKQ4I8kGk27oXlD7?si=OFaa5ZevRP6gis2fy-GKAQ&ref=s3t.org)
### 🎄Happy Friday and Happy Holidays!
*Welcome to the last edition of 2025! We will resume in January with a special edition outlook for 2026 and beyond.*
*This special issue is a wrap up of the biggest developments in 2025 that offer clues on how to prepare in 2026\.*
*Thank you again for reading and sharing S3T this year, and thank you for your commitment to* [*change leadership*](https://www.s3t.org/change-leadership-learning-series/)*: driving intentional innovation and beneficial change.*
*Hope you have plans for some downtime and reflection during this holiday season, and best wishes for success in the New Year!*
*Ralph*
---
### 2025 in 1 minute
- 🌍 **2025 broke core assumptions**: AI shifted from experimentation to execution but hit hard constraints (energy, chips, geopolitics), inflation and volatility became structural, and financial innovation moved from fringe to center stage—rewarding discipline over hype.
- ⚡ **AI became a geopolitical topic but not a guaranteed ROI engine**: Governments now treat AI like oil, racing to secure energy and compute, yet only \~15% of executives saw profit gains, exposing overinvestment in flashy AI versus durable, platform-aligned capabilities.
- 🏦 **Platform-first AI is emerging as a winning pattern**: Firms like BNY Mellon focused on core data, risk, and compliance-aligned AI foundations—illustrating that scalable value comes from infrastructure discipline, not one-off AI experiments.
- 🔗 **Crypto is bifurcating: speculation down, utility up**: Meme, and volatile “store of value” coins broadly lost ground in 2025, while assets tied to transaction flow (USDC, Tether, BNB, Bitcoin Cash) gained—signaling investor preference for rails, cash equivalents, and real usage over narratives.
- 🧾 **Tokenization entered mainstream finance**: Regulated assets are moving on-chain (BlackRock, BNY Mellon, Goldman Sachs, Kraken), modernizing settlement and record-keeping without changing asset risk—shifting finance from batch-based to near-real-time architecture.
- 📊 **Fiscal and labor signals stayed stressed**: Government tax and spending both rose, inflation remained above target, layoffs quietly accumulated, involuntary part-time work surged, and tariffs proved insufficient to meaningfully replace income tax revenue.
- 🧭 **2026 leadership question**: As constraints tighten and systems modernize, the advantage shifts to leaders who choose *accountable intelligence* over raw automation—making disciplined, trust-aware decisions in a world defined by limits and constraints, not abundance.
---
### **\[2025 in Review\]**
Photo by [Lara Puscas](https://unsplash.com/@dancingclouds?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Top developments in 2025 that set the stage for 2026
**2025 was a year of radical departures and rifts**—from experimentation to execution in AI, from abstract debates about compute to hard constraints driven by energy, chips, and geopolitics, and from speculative crypto narratives to regulated financial infrastructure built on stablecoins and tokenization.
Economic conditions shifted from pandemic recovery to a new "normal" of permanently higher inflation, tariffs, volatility, and a stalling job market. Meanwhile global power dynamics increasingly linked technology leadership to energy security and supply-chain resilience. Together, these changes broke some long standing assumptions:
- That software could scale without any real physical limits (it can't)
- That globalization would recover and continue (not likely)
- That financial innovation would remain peripheral (its now center stage)
Which raises the question: will 2026 winners be those with vision or those who make disciplined choices under constraint & uncertainty?
##
Photo by [Zbynek Burival](https://unsplash.com/@zburival?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### AI became the new Oil in Geopolitics in spite of elusive ROI
AI now occupies the same brain space and level of urgency that policy makers and governments in past decades devoted to oil supply chains. Nations race to build up energy and compute [value chains for AI datacenters with city-size power needs](https://www.cbinsights.com/research/report/data-center-value-chain-market-map/?ref=s3t.org).
For all this, the actual ROI for companies that adopted AI remains fuzzy. [Just 15% of execs saw profits improve due to AI](https://www.reuters.com/business/business-leaders-agree-ai-is-future-they-just-wish-it-worked-right-now-2025-12-16/?ref=s3t.org). Many are realizing they over-indexed on buzzy flavors of AI while leaving other versions of the technology unleveraged.
One exception: BNY Mellon took a *platform approach* to AI, building a core set of capabilities aligned to their data needs, risk tolerance and compliance requirements. [Read their lessons learned here](https://www.bny.com/corporate/global/en/insights/unlocking-potential-enterprise-ai-platform-bny.html?ref=s3t.org). (Related: [BNY Mellon and CMU team up for AI advanced research and development](https://www.bny.com/corporate/global/en/about-us/newsroom/press-release/bny-and-carnegie-mellon-university-join-forces-to-advance-research-and-development-in-ai-130443.html?ref=s3t.org)).
### Crypto tech is maturing into a preferred model for transactions and tokenization
2025 saw highly favorable conditions for crypto as an asset class, with strong institutional investor adoption and increasingly favorable regulatory environment (especially in the US).
But not all classes of crypto were impacted positively. Many lost significant market cap or rank.
Top 20 Assets based on data from Coinmarketcap.com
Many speculative meme coins, utility coins and store of value coins saw significant market cap *losses* in 2025\.
Utility coins like Render, Helium, Chainlink (and many more) are designed to enable a specific platform or service. Investors generally expect growth in user adoption to drive increases in the value/price of these utility coins. With a few exceptions, most utility coins have *not* seen strong adoption in 2025 and many of the old favorites fell sharply this year. They don't solve a compelling enough need. Some of these first generation utility coins may be headed for extinction.
Store of value coins like Bitcoin are seen by some investors as hedges against inflation (a digital version of gold). But these value stores are also highly volatile and are considered risky assets. In uncertain times, many investors dump risk assets in favor of assets with more stable value. Traditionally investors sought refuge in US Treasuries, in more recent times Bitcoin investors sensing first signs of crypto winter, or economic trouble may convert Bitcoin to stablecoins (like USDC).
Its educational to note which assets saw large gains, and what those assets have in common. Contrast the red/green figures in the last column:
Selected assets based on data from Coinmarketcap.com
The table above shows 4 leading assets that experienced significant market cap gains in 2025: Tether, BNB, USDC and Bitcoin Cash. What do these 4 have in common?
1. They're used not just traded: their value is tied to transaction flow vs investor sentiment and speculation.
2. They function as rails, cash equivalents or other high utility instruments, not just memes or experiments.
3. Investors see them as a less risky way to retain exposure to crypto's upside potential. Bitcoin by contrast is seen as risky and large institutional investors frequently dump Bitcoin when facing uncertain macro environments.
Photo by [Didier Weemaels](https://unsplash.com/@didwee?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### Tokenization is bringing real-time architecture to traditional finance
Tokenization is entering a mainstream phase, where *regulated* *assets* (vs NFTs etc) are moving on chain.
- Blackrock has [gone public with their enthusiasm and plans for tokenization](https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2025/12/01/larry-fink-and-rob-goldstein-on-how-tokenisation-could-transform-finance?ref=s3t.org)
- BNY Mellon and Goldman Sachs [launched a shared ledger for Money Market Funds](https://www.goldmansachs.com/pressroom/press-releases/2025/bny-goldman-sachs-launch-tokenized-money-market-funds-solution?ref=s3t.org)
- Kraken [launched tokenized stocks & ETFs](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/kraken-allow-trading-apple-tesla-nvidia-shares-digital-tokens-wsj-reports-2025-05-22/?ref=s3t.org) earlier this year for non-US customers for 24/7 trading - and [plans to go public in 2026](https://www.reuters.com/business/crypto-exchange-kraken-confidentially-files-us-ipo-2025-11-19/?ref=s3t.org).
Tokenization in this context means representing the ownership of a regulated financial asset (e.g., a bond, money market share, or equity) as a *digital token* that can move on modern distributed infrastructure.
Worth noting:
- Tokenization itself does **not** change the nature of an asset; its credit risk, regulatory status, investor protections are not impacted by the fact that it runs on a shared ledger/blockchain.
- Tokenization *does* change how ownership and transfers are recorded, settled, and managed.
*Analogy:* Instead of moving value by faxing confirmations, batching settlements, and reconciling ledgers, tokenization updates a shared “book of record” faster - with fewer intermediaries.
💡
**"The analysis shows that the majority of risks arising from the current commercial application of tokenization fall into existing risk taxonomies. Market participants are not unfamiliar with managing such risk types. However, the manifestation of vulnerabilities and risks that are unique to the technology itself may require the introduction of new or additional controls to manage them. Such risks and controls have been acknowledged by issuers and operators in their publications such as public prospectus documents."*
\- [Board of International Organization of Securities Commissions report on Tokenization of Financial Assets](https://www.iosco.org/library/pubdocs/pdf/IOSCOPD809.pdf?ref=s3t.org)
Takeaway for investors and decision makers in 2026: Don't underestimate crypto: **this technology is maturing into a preferred transaction and tokenization model and should not be seen simply as a store of value for risk-tolerant crypto holders.**
---
### Government Tax & Spend Trended higher in 2025
Contrary to hopes for lower taxes and more fiscal discipline, the federal government's tax & spend both trended higher this year.
The federal government taxes (after refunds) rose in 2025:
[Wharton Real Time Budget Tracker](https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/4/3/real-time-federal-budget-tracker?ref=s3t.org)
Total government spending also rose noticeably, in spite of the DOGE activities in early 2025\.
[Wharton Real Time Budget Tracker](https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/4/3/real-time-federal-budget-tracker?ref=s3t.org)
### Inflation is still above target and the job market is basically flat
The US latest inflation figures this week came in lower than expected, [apparently due to flawed assumptions about price changes](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/18/trust-these-numbers-economists-see-a-lot-of-flaws-in-delayed-cpi-report-showing-downward-inflation.html?ref=s3t.org) in the October-November timeframe, as well as holiday discounts during the Thanksgiving timeframe. A more reliable read is not expected until January when the full data collection occurs for the month of December.
"The data is truncated, and we just don't know how much of it to trust." [said Diane Swonk, KPMG chief economist](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/u-s-says-inflation-slowed-last-month-but-data-may-be-distorted-and-americans-arent-feeling-it?ref=s3t.org).
BLS figures show [little change in employment over the course of 2025](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm?ref=s3t.org), as more and more companies are [resorting to continuous small layoffs](https://fortune.com/2025/12/09/forever-layoffs-job-security-k-shaped-economy-white-collar-recession-challenger-glassdoor/?ref=s3t.org). Announced layoffs have [totaled 1.17M this year](https://www.challengergray.com/blog/challenger-report-71321-job-cuts-on-restructurings-closings-economy/?ref=s3t.org).
Dalin Overstreet notes that one of the most significant developments this year is [the surge in involuntary part time employment](https://substack.com/home/post/p-181819265?ref=s3t.org) \- people who want full time employment but can only find part time.
[Polimetrics](https://substack.com/home/post/p-181819265?ref=s3t.org)
### Tariffs aren't bringing in enough revenue to replace the income tax as the main source of funding for the federal government
[This analysis of US Treasury Dept data](https://www.politico.com/interactives/2025/trump-tariff-income-tracker/?ref=s3t.org) shows the additional revenue being generated by tariffs (\~$250B in 2025 far short of the 2.4Trillion needed to offset income tax revenue).
Looking at the details in the Reed Smith [Tariff Tracker](https://www.tradecomplianceresourcehub.com/2025/12/11/trump-2-0-tariff-tracker/?ref=s3t.org) helps you see why. Most of the *implemented* (not threatened) tariffs come attached with [hundreds of exemptions](https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/schedule-2.pdf?ref=s3t.org), from coffee, spices, fruit, animals, wood products, rare earths and ores, pharma components, aircraft parts etc...leaving one to wonder what if anything is materially impacted by Tariffs??
### What to make of it all here at the end of 2025
Taken as a set these developments show a rapidly accelerating evolution of emerging technology alongside an increasingly challenging financial picture for individuals and industries alike. The leadership opportunity can probably be summed up in this choice: **Do we want a world run by Artificial Intelligence or Accountable Intelligence?**
All of it will make for some very interesting times in the year ahead. And we will be here to talk about it and figure out the path forward together!
Photo by [Laura Beth Snipes](https://unsplash.com/@lbsnipes?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
---
Full Access Members:
- See the [S3T Economic Dashboard](https://www.s3t.org/dashboard/) for the Top 500+ US & International real-time economic indicators.
- [S3T Economic Signals: Top Sources for economic data and insights](https://www.s3t.org/signals/)
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### Dec 12 - Bottlenecks vs Precision Mindset - What we can learn from Pit Crews
URL: https://www.s3t.org/dec12-2025/
Last updated: 2025-12-12T06:28:27.000Z
*In today's environment, *speed without precision is reckless*.*
*But *precision without speed is irrelevant*.*
S3T PodCast Dec 12, 2025
0:00
/1043.2783673469387
1×
🎧 Listen here [or on Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/episode/32EQnCiEvNWruWhX63wMrQ?si=XNEonkJxQX2YhBDcJdmcYA&ref=s3t.org)
---
### 🧭 In this Issue
- 🏎️ **Governance bottlenecks are rising** as AI-driven complexity increases, making security, compliance, and architecture teams critical—but often slow, reactive gatekeepers instead of accelerators.
- ⚡ **Pit Crew identity is the new model**: high-performance teams mitigate risks with *speed + precision*, acting decisively instead of pointing to processes, forms, and tickets.
- 🔍 **Watch out for false tradeoffs**: safety vs. speed, security vs. usability, compliance vs. velocity are not opposites; precision unlocks both simultaneously—just like elite racing pit stops.
- 🤝 **Adopt Pit Crew Ownership**: shift from passive box-checking to co-owning business outcomes—clearing obstacles, enabling progress, and treating the team’s win as *your* win.
- 🎯 **Precision mindset is the 21st-century advantage**: disciplined urgency, fast risk resolution, and rule-guided enablement turn governance from friction into fuel for the entire organization.
---
## **🏎️ From Speed Bump to Pit Crew: A New Model for High-Performance Governance**
*As the world becomes more AI driven and more complex, companies increasingly struggle with *gatekeeper bottlenecks*: security, compliance, AI governance or architecture review and approval processes that are required to ensure compliance, strategic alignment and risk management.*
*Leading firms are learning to address gatekeeper bottlenecks by nudging their governance, security, compliance and architecture teams toward a new identity: Pit Crew*.**
### In racing, the driver gets the spotlight, but championships are won in the pits.
A race car screeches to a stop. and in the next 2 seconds, *12 people give the car an update.* For Pit Crews, high performance means delivering risk mitigation with speed AND precision.
Not one or the other. Both.
A great pit crew is the ultimate high-performance model for governance and risk mitigation teams: fast **and** precise, urgent **and** disciplined, safety-focused **and** speed-obsessed. They operate with one focus: **the team must win.** Every action, every gesture, every fraction of a second is aligned to that focus.
**This precision mindset is exactly what today’s governance, security, architecture, and compliance teams need in order to deliver value in the 21st century operating environment..**
Because in many companies—especially in regulated industries—the opposite happens. Gatekeeper teams slow things down. They rightly point out risks (security, compliance, tech debt, legal etc), but then take no ownership to actually remove or resolve the risk. They point people to a process. They request a form. They ask for a ticket. And all too often show little concern for the success of the team.
But imagine if we could inspire these teams to behave more like racing team pit crews - high performing teams that work with precision *and* speed.
---
## 3 Key Principles to Help Your Governance Teams adjust to the 21st Century operating environment.
### 1\. Pit Crews Don’t Just Call Out Risks — They Resolve Them *Fast*
A world-class pit crew doesn’t just tell the driver "Hey your fuel is low, you better do something about that" or "We can't let you proceed, your tires are getting worn."
They act. They refuel the car, change the tires and more. All with practiced precision.
**A good pit crew doesn't just recognize risks - they resolve the risks quickly so the mission can continue.** In their world, a lack of speed is a clear sign of *lack of competence.*
Great governance, compliance, security and architecture teams have the same mindset. It’s not enough to raise flags and slow things down. High performing teams clear obstacles, guide the business through complexity, and get the initiative safely back on track—*fast*.
Think about a required process step or artifact in one of your most critical security or compliance processes. Who is best suited to do that step or create that artifact and do it *really well*???
- A person who's never done this before? Or
- A person who has seen dozens of these and can quickly determine which parts are most critical and relevant to the current situation?
The best gatekeeper teams don't abandon an initiative owner to stumble through a process they barely understand - they work side by side with the initiative owner to address risks and required steps in the most optimal way.
In a business context, we want to identify the risks: the security, compliance, AI, or other risks that will endanger the success of our business partners - then *resolve* those risks quickly so our business partners can get back out on track and win.
---
### 2\. Precision Teams Reject False Tradeoffs
Poor teams accept lazy binaries:
- *“The car can be safe OR fast, but not both.”*
- *“The system can be secure OR easy to use, but not both.”*
- *“We can be compliant OR we can move quickly, but not both.”*
But smart companies - just like the top pit crews - recognize these as false tradeoffs caused by lack of precision mindset.
F1 pit stops take about **2 seconds**. Indy and NASCAR crews complete **5–15 coordinated tasks** with millimeter accuracy. **Safety doesn’t have to slow you down - precision actually makes high speed possible.**
This is the mindset shift organizations need:
> **Security and speed are not opposites.**
> **Compliance and usability are not opposites.**
> **Precision is what makes both possible at the same time.**
Life is full of tradeoffs. But watch out for *False* Tradeoffs. False Tradeoffs occur when:
- We believe that only A or B is possible, and we believe we must choose only one option.
- Contrary to our belief, a *wider range* *of choices* (A-Z) may actually possible: we can have A, B, or C-Z...or we could have A *both* A & B.
- We then make poor decisions or accept poor performance because we are not considering all available options with a precision mindset.
Do not allow yourself or your team to get stuck inside the limitations of ***false tradeoffs***.
---
### 3\. Pit Crews Think Like Owners, Not box checkers
Some teams just checks boxes. A Pit Crew wins races.
That’s the difference between a team that sees itself as a passive advisor vs. **one that understands its role as a co-owner of business outcomes.**
Pit crews don’t say:
- “Well, I told them about the issue—my part is done.”
- “They didn’t follow the process—not my problem.”
- “We’re here to enforce rules, not to help them win.”
Instead, they see the team's success as **their** success. The driver’s risks are **their** risks. The team’s victory is **their** victory.
That’s what Pit Crew Ownership looks like. And that's a great phrase to use with your teams. Pit Crew Ownership. Ask it often. Are we taking ownership like a Pit Crew does? Are we demonstrating Pit Crew Ownership here?
Taking ownership drives behaviors that build trust and accelerate results.
Imagine governance teams that operate that way. Imagine security teams that take accountability for enabling progress, not stopping it. Imagine architecture teams that see each initiative as their race to help win.
I actually know some that do.
---
## **Today's complexity requires more precision**
Every industry—finance, healthcare, energy, technology—is becoming more complex, more regulated, more exposed to cyber threats, and more dependent on rapid innovation.
In today's environment, **speed without precision is reckless**.
But **precision without speed is irrelevant**.
A pit crew's precision mindset blends both:
- Awareness + action
- Control + momentum
- Safety + velocity
- Discipline + urgency
- Rules + purpose
This is what high-performance looks like in the 21st century.
---
## **A Call to Today’s Gatekeeper Teams**
If your role touches risk, compliance, security, data, architecture, or technology governance, realize that you are not simply an advisor or a referee. You are part of the competitive engine of the company.
Your job is not to slow things down...your job is to keep the organization in the race and help it win safely.
Your value increases when:
- You accelerate outcomes vs delaying them.
- You guide teams through complexity rather than sending them off to try to navigate on their own.
- You co-own results rather than disclaim responsibility.
- You use rules to enable rather than just create friction.
- You refuse to fall into the trap false tradeoffs and instead use a precision mindset to create outcomes that are beyond expectations.
Great pit crews don’t wait for someone else to fix the problem.
Great pit crews don’t hide behind process.
Great pit crews don’t fear speed.
Great pit crews fear **sloppiness**, **delay**, and **losing**.
Be that team.
---
## **Closing Thought**
Every company has drivers—product owners, clinicians, analysts, engineers, executives—all trying to move initiatives forward. They’re pushing the limits. They’re competing in faster and more demanding markets.
They need you.
Not as a speed bump or detached advisor.
But as **their pit crew**—the team that helps them go faster **and** safer, by bringing a precision mindset.
High-performance organizations are built on high-performance support teams.
And the teams that embrace this mindset—the precision mindset, the ownership mindset—will be the ones that **transform governance from friction into fuel.**
---
### Sources and further reading
[Red Bull Racing Honda Team's Guide to Pit Stops](https://www.redbullracing.com/int-en/bulls-guide-to-pit-stops?ref=s3t.org) \- How this team set the world record fastest pit stop of 1.82 seconds.
[Formula 1 Fastest Pit Stop Award 2025](https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article/2025-dhl-fastest-pit-stop-award.1AHIOqk0lFjycCpPgBEKHa?ref=s3t.org) \- includes video of pit stops from multiple angles.
---
### 🏆For Paying Members:
[🏎️ Precision Mindset - Coaching Methods & Incentive MechanismsGet change leadership skills that give you an edge.S3TRalph Perrine](https://www.s3t.org/precision-mindset-coaching-methods-incentive-mechanisms/)
[⚖️ S3T Playbook: Addressing uneven accountabilityOne group feels the full heat of accountability for an outcome but is forced to rely on/wait for another group that doesn’t feel the heat.S3TRalph Perrine](https://www.s3t.org/disabling-accountability-shields/)
###
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### Multi-op env, US China energy differential, Gemini 3, AI crawling, Making time
URL: https://www.s3t.org/dec5/
Last updated: 2025-12-05T04:33:38.000Z
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### Multi-op env, US China energy differential, Gemini 3, AI crawling, Making time
URL: https://www.s3t.org/multi-op-env-us-china-energy-differential-gemini-3-ai-crawling-making-time/
Last updated: 2025-12-05T04:29:18.000Z
*You're always engineering your way toward something; are you sure it's what you want?*
****🎉Black Friday Week Only: 50% Off for 12 Months**
\+ Continuously updated briefings on emerging tech + macro signals
\+ Leadership learnables and playbooks
\+ Think clearly and lead confidently in 2026
[Click here to get full access for half price](https://www.s3t.org/black-friday-week-sale)
Offer Ends Friday Night Midnight
S3T PodCast Dec 5 2025
0:00
/1249.854693877551
1×
🎧 Listen here [or on Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/episode/3yp0YdqMtBBqoCzb7bnYA2?si=5P2ayhVhSb2FRdy07tHQ3g&ref=s3t.org)
---
### In this Issue
###
- 🧭 **Leaders must navigate intertwined environments**—tech, economic, social, and natural systems—and recognize how their choices shape downstream behavior.
- 🔍 **Sharpen system-level awareness** with multi-environment dashboards, second-order thinking, weak-signal detection, and incentive mapping.
- 🤝 **Boost relationship density & cross-domain networks** to improve prediction, resilience, and decision quality.
- ⚡ **Power = the real AI bottleneck**—China’s massive electricity capacity gives it an advantage as U.S. data centers face grid-supply constraints.
- 🤖 **Gemini 3 rises**—new benchmarks show it outperforming ChatGPT in several categories, shifting the competitive frontier.
- 📚 **AI firms strain Wikipedia**—intensive crawler traffic drives up operating costs, prompting new funding and licensing discussions.
- 🧪 **Change Leadership Focus:** Leading change requires *more time*—this week’s tool shows how to reclaim bandwidth while advancing long-term innovation.
---
### \[strategy\]
Parque Natural de Penalara, Spain
## Do you really understand your operating environments? **(There isn't just one)**
A few years ago, my family went hiking in a beautiful mountain range outside Madrid. It was a true wilderness—miles of terrain folding into other miles. Our guide seemed uncannily aware of every path and feature, what animals were in the area, weather conditions and more. He seemed especially intuitive about helping our group have a good time and stay safe in spite of their varying degrees of fitness and skill. He knew the specific steps and moves to make, **so that everyone could navigate the tricky terrain.**
Half impressed, half testing him, I said, “You really know this place.”
He smiled. “Like my own home.”
By the end of the hike, we all understood exactly what he meant. He didn’t just move across the landscape—he *understood* it at a level of detail and familiarity that not only allowed him to find his way, but also allowed him to lead others.
- The trail system and conditions
- The weather
- The animal ecosystem
- What we could eat or drink and what we couldn't
That is the level of awareness change leaders need today. This is especially true for leaders who are bringing organizations, customers, boards, regulators navigate unfamiliar terrain: AI, crypto, digitally-rewired global markets, life science frontiers and other innovations.
### There is more than 1 environment
We often talk about “the environment” as if it refers only to nature. Or our "operating environment" as if there's only one. Not true. We all operate inside *multiple*, interconnected environments—ecosystems where cause and effect happen continuously:
- **Technological ecosystems:** AI models, compute markets, crypto protocols, security assumptions.
- **Economic environments:** Inflation expectations, capital flows, institutional trust, regulatory posture.
- **Social and democratic environments:** Cultural fragmentation, information ecosystems, governance stressors.
- **Community and family environments:** The micro-systems that shape our customer's well-being, focus, and ultimately our and their futures.
These environments aren’t abstract—they literally are concrete *evidence* of the cumulative behaviors, incentives, architectures, and decisions made by millions of people.
A canyon tells the story of how water shaped rock over time.
Photo by [Jamie Hagan](https://unsplash.com/@dearjamie?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
Our social, economic, and technological environments tell the story of the ecosystems *we* shaped—intentionally or unintentionally.
Consider:
- A Fortune 100 company can receive massive financial support after strategic failure.
- A young family that misses a bill deadline receives a punitive fee.
These aren’t accidents. They emerge from the *mental models, platforms, algorithms, processes, and incentives* we build and accept.
AI, crypto and other emerging tech innovators should take this to heart:
Every model release, governance change, incentive tweak, UX decision, or protocol upgrade **shapes downstream behaviors at scale.**
If the world feels chaotic or imbalanced, the first step is uncomfortable but liberating:
> **We helped engineer these environments—through action, inaction, and the systems we built or tolerated.**
This recognition is powerful because it restores agency. It reframes us from *victims* of systems to *designers* of systems. Every day we are engineering and navigating our way toward *something*. Are we sure it's something we really want??
### The S3T Philosophy: Awareness as a Tool for Impact
At S3T, we focus on building awareness of the environments that matter most in the 21st century:
- **The economic environment**, and how emerging tech reshapes its flows
- **The technological environment**, especially AI and decentralized systems
- **The social and political environment**, and how polarization impacts governance
- **The natural environment**, whose stability is critical to all other systems
To navigate these well, we need to engage with them like our hiking guide did:
**with familiarity and deep observation.**
Awareness isn’t the final goal—but the starting point for intentional, beneficial impact. For work that makes a *positive* difference.
In the S3T point of view we should use this awareness to work more effectively toward **a healthy wealthy *world*** (and not be satisfied with just a few healthy, wealthy individuals).
Being aware of these different ecosystems or environments allows us to make better choices, take better actions and drive better outcomes.
### **Why Work Toward a Healthy, Wealthy World?**
The following points outline the S3T point of view on how we should be thinking and working:
- A healthy wealthy world is a worthwhile outcome to work toward. Why?
- A problem solving mindset that learns and works toward a healthy wealthy world *will achieve more good* than a pessimistic mindset that retreats into despair.
- A healthy planet requires healthy ecosystems - including natural, social and financial.
- Healthy ecosystems require healthy communities.
- Healthy communities require healthy individuals.
Think of these as sets of things that work together and impact each other. We must combine our individual skills and perspectives into sets of initiatives that effectively address challenges we face.
Nurturing the health and wealth of indviduals, communities, ecosystems and the planet is a high calling that offers an opportunity for every person's diverse gifts and talents. In fact, **today's complex problems require the combinatorial advantage of diverse skills working together.**
We are all system participants—and often system architects. Being aware of our environments helps us navigate with better decisions and better execution to better outcomes. This is the highest form of innovation because it serves not just a few beneficiaries, but entire ecosystems. A healthy wealthy *world* ...not just a few healthy wealthy individuals.
---
### **Change Leadership Strategies for Increasing Environmental Awareness**
*Here are practical ways frontier-minded executives and researchers can sharpen their situational awareness of the multiple environments we operate in today.*
---
### 1\. Adopt a “Multi-Environment Dashboard Habit”
Just as engineers monitor model drift or validator performance, leaders should create a weekly awareness dashboard across domains:
- **Technological:** compute supply/demand, model evals, protocol upgrades
- **Economic:** credit conditions, labor indicators, regulatory signals
- **Social:** trust metrics, information ecosystem trends, polarization indicators
- **Environmental:** climate-driven risk signals that affect supply chains & markets
The discipline of scanning multiple environments reduces tunnel vision—an all too common failure mode that can even affect high-performance teams. The S3T learning platform and newsletter/podcast is designed to support exactly this discipline.
---
### **2\. Use Second-Order Thinking More Frequently**
AI and crypto systems generate feedback loops and externalities. We don't think about these enough. Before shipping, scaling, or advocating for something, ask:
- “If this succeeds, what becomes true in 2 years?”
- “What behaviors will this unintentionally incentivize?”
- “What dependencies or fragilities will this create?”
Frontier technologists operate in systems that amplify small changes.
Second-order thinking acts as a stabilizer.
---
### **3\. Build Cross-Domain Intelligence Networks**
Your awareness increases dramatically when you regularly exchange insights with people:
- outside your sector
- outside your political bubble
- outside your discipline
- outside your comfort zone
Heterogeneous networks improve predictive accuracy—this is well-documented in complexity science and forecasting research. You can put this principle to work for you and your team.
---
### **4\.** Observe *Incentives* not just Opinions
Environments are shaped more by *incentives* than beliefs. If you want to understand a system fast:
- Map the incentives.
- Map who benefits from stability vs. change.
- Map where asymmetries exist.
Technologists who do this naturally will outperform those who rely on management consulting narratives, or prevailing opinions.
---
### **5\. Train Yourself to Notice “Weak Signals”**
Every major shift—AI acceleration, crypto adoption, geopolitical fragmentation—began as faint signals.
To improve weak-signal detection:
- Track deviations from historical norms
- Look for areas where data contradicts dominant narratives
- Ask “What is rising? What is falling? What is accelerating?...and perhaps most importantly "What is missing?"
If you can sense change early you can prepare your organizations far more effectively.
---
### **6\. Translate Awareness Into Experimentation**
Awareness without active experimentation becomes intellectual clutter.
A high-leverage question:
> **“What small experiment can we run this week that would help us learn more about this environment?”**
Short-cycle experimentation allows you to compound your awareness. This is one of the most important disciplines you can teach your team.
---
### **7\. Cultivate Relationship Density**
Social environments degrade when relationship density thins out.
The same is true in companies, protocols, and research communities.
Strengthen ties with:
- adjacent teams
- governance participants
- regulators
- skeptics
- cross-disciplinary partners
High-trust environments produce higher-quality decisions.
---
### Closing Thought
My guide in the mountains wasn’t just an expert—he was immersed. He had absorbed the terrain so deeply that it shaped the way he moved - and it enabled him to guide others even when they had varying degrees of fitness and skill.
In the 21st century, leaders of AI, crypto, and emerging tech systems need the same immersion and deep awareness of the environments we influence every day. When we understand our environments “like our own home,” we don’t just navigate them— we shape them with intention, precision, and care. **And we can bring our organizations, customers and stakeholders along with us.**
## Notable examples from the S3T Community
S3T Member Jay Harriot is a notable example of someone working toward a healthy wealthy world. On Thanksgiving Day, Harriot's [25th Project](https://www.the25thproject.org/about?ref=s3t.org) had 150+ volunteers who served 2,202 meals to those in need. The 25th Project has a successful track record of helping homeless people gain financial stability and successfully regain jobs and housing.
Another S3T Member, Manian CSB is leading work in developing countries that enable educational institutions to understand and adopt emerging technologies in their curriculum and learning projects. Earlier this year they launched an AI-powered multilingual learning platform serving language groups across Nigeria.
Finally S3T Member [Dan Dorszynski](https://www.s3t.org/flying-wheelchairs/) is continuing advocacy for airlines to change their wheelchair policy. Dan was recently featured in All Wheels Up:
In response to the advocacy of Dan and many others, Delta and more recently Airbus have developed cabin configurations that will allow passengers to remain in their own wheelchairs when they fly. The new configurations are currently going through FAA Technical Standard Order (TSO) authorization process.
You can help by contacting 2 specific groups in the Department of Transportation as well as your Congressperson: Follow these [quick and simple instructions here.](https://www.s3t.org/wheelchair-airline-policy/)
**These are just a few examples of how change leaders are working to make things better in their own corners of the world.**
---
### **\[S3T.ORG Updates\]**
S3T.org offers paying members a set of continuously updated references and learning segments for executives, entrepreneurs, investors and policymakers. Sign up for S3T full access to start leveraging S3T research and insights to increase your impact.
- New references and data sources have been added to [**Signals: Top Sources for Economic Data & Insights**](https://www.s3t.org/signals/) **\-** *This curated set of diverse data, analysis, and trends sources are crucial for investors, policy makers, and finance leaders who* need *to maintain an independent and forward looking perspective on economic realities impacting businesses and families.*
- The [**Macro Panorama** has been updated](https://www.s3t.org/macro/) for Dec 2025\. Covers the evolving macro economic landscape for US, global economy & geopolitics
---
### **\[emerging tech signals\]**
## Shifting Places: Gemini moves up
I've noticed this trend for better part of this year: Gemini getting better and better compared to ChatGPT. Now I know it is not just me. And it's not just Futures markets like Kalshi (graphic from this week, above).
[Datacamp shared](https://www.datacamp.com/blog/gemini-3?ref=s3t.org) a range of measures suggestion Gemini 3 has captured the top ranking for the "Humanity's Last Exam" benchmark:
[DataCamp](https://www.datacamp.com/blog/gemini-3?ref=s3t.org)
[This head to head competitive eval](https://www.sentisight.ai/gemini-3-vs-chatgpt-5-1-clear-winner/?ref=s3t.org) between Gemini 3 and ChatGPT 5.1 across multiple tests (creative writing, multimodal, reasoning etc) declared Gemini 3 the winner on several categories while acknowledging that ChatGPT retains an edge in a few key areas:
- connects to more 3rd party tools
- faster responses for some tasks
- "warmer more conversational output"
Scroll to the bottom of the piece for guidance on which to choose based on your specific use case.
---
### AI Firms are driving up Wikipedia's Operating Costs
AI Firms including OpenAI, Google etc have a common practice of crawling internet repositories like Wikipedia. *But this practice drives up server and processing costs for the owners of the internet sites.*
Wikipedia is a particularly vulnerable to these additional costs because it has a much wider array of information than say SORA (focused on ornithology) or even ArXiv which focuses on latest research papers / a more limited audience.
To address this growing financial burden, [Wikipedia founder Jimmy Wales is engaging the AI firms](https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/wikipedia-seeks-more-ai-licensing-deals-similar-google-tie-up-co-founder-wales-2025-12-04/?ref=s3t.org) to secure licensing or use agreements that in effect would offset these disproportionate costs that the AI crawler activities are imposing on Wikipedia.
Couple of actions you can take:
- Share your viewpoint with others
- Share your viewpoint directly with OpenAI, Anthropic, Google and other leading AI firms
- Consider an end of year donation to Wikipedia.
---
### The constraint on the AI arms race: Power not Chips
The real constraint for AI is not chips, its power supply. And China is far better positioned than the US to provide abundant power for its AI industry. [Rui Ma's very insightful piece](https://substack.com/@ruima/p-179967150?ref=s3t.org) on the US China AI race describes how each nation faces different kinds of constraints.
- *"China already produces over 9,000 TWh of electricity annually, more than *double* U.S. generation"*
- *"China’s immediate challenge is not lack of power, but *how efficiently* that power converts into usable compute."*
Ma points out that the US's AI needs will require a steep increase in power capacity, whereas China likely already has the capacity it needs. But building new power capacity takes years. In the US, Virginia - the state that imports more energy than another other thanks to its datacenter hubs - has fast tracked solar as an alternative power source. Projects can "[move from land use application to commercial operation in 18 to 24 months](https://www.utilitydive.com/news/data-center-power-problem-solar/758809/?ref=s3t.org)."
That is much faster than traditional power sources. But solar alone is not likely to make up the gap with China especially in the current political climate where traditional fossil fuels are new fad.
---
### **\[change leadership learning series\]**
## Making Time to Lead Change Effectively
Did you know that being a change leader puts you at a disadvantage?
- As a change leader **you have to learn and execute in unfamiliar territory,** and this requires a LOT of time.
- You may also have to operate in 2 worlds, **handling near term commitments while driving long-term change initiatives**. Both of these factors put you disadvantage - making it harder for you to find the time to do all the things you need to do.
This week's Change Leadership Learning Segment teaches you how to overcome that disadvantage, and gives you a tool that helps you make the time to do what you need to achieve your goals.
**Change leaders must learn how to manage their time with above average effectiveness.** Learn how to make the time you need to drive change while still meeting your other important commitments.
Ready to start learning? Click here:
- [Making Time to Lead Change](https://www.s3t.org/making-time-to-lead-change/) \- Leading change takes *extra* time - here's a proven way to maximize what you can do with your available time.
- Optional: browse the overview of the full [Change Leadership Learning Series](https://www.s3t.org/change-leadership-learning-series/).
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### 🦃Thanksgiving Edition 2025
URL: https://www.s3t.org/thanksgiving-edition-2025/
Last updated: 2025-11-27T06:28:38.000Z
*Let's get together, take the day, and make it our own.*
S3T PodCast Thanksgiving 2025
0:00
/670.2759183673469
1×
🎧 Listen here [or on Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/episode/6MKwz9YeJSVtbVz6V7iMEi?si=BvUBWbjjSXyR94Ffl749Fg&ref=s3t.org)
---
### 🦃In this Issue
To share my thanks to you, I wanted to create a special edition that takes a break from the heavier technology and economic topics and leaves room for reflection, gratitude, and some good reading
- What an old family photo can teach us about Thanksgiving, and what we're most thankful for.
- Some light reading for the Thanksgiving Weekend
- My thank you and reflection note
Hope you have a wonderful Thanksgiving Day and weekend with your loved ones! Wishing you all the best!
---
## We Americans have a lot to say about Thanksgiving.
Some say the first Thanksgiving was just another milestone in the exploitation of Indigenous People. Some say it’s a time to renew our gratitude and spend time with family. Or maybe just a time for indulgence and shopping.
This week's headline graphic features a simple treasured family photo that shapes my perspective on what Thanksgiving Day can be.
This is a photo of my Mom’s family having a picnic. It is a sunny Thanksgiving Day in Maine, 1940\. In the left edge of the photo, a little girl is sharing some food with a large man in a hat. That little girl is my Mom. She was five. The man is her dad, Clifton Howe – the man I get my middle name from.
Grandpa Howe was one of the last of a determined breed of Depression-era Maine potato farmers. He refused to take government subsidies because taking the money in those days – thanks to the bizarre logic of some bureaucracy – required farmers to dump their potatoes in a field and let them rot. Grandpa reckoned that was wasteful and just plain wrong. So he took his potatoes to market every year no matter what. In some of those Depression years the market price fetched barely enough to get by.
In that context, this group of family and friends celebrated Thanksgiving as best they could by getting together for a picnic on a windy hill. They parked two cars together and strung a blanket between them to create a break from the wind. In the center of the picture, sunlight catches an almost empty bottle of milk – likely from the Curtis Dairy run by my Mom’s Uncle Curtis and Aunt Ruth. The little girl in the center of the picture is my Mom’s slightly older sister Helen. The man standing next to Clifton Howe, I believe is Uncle Ted. I believe the lady in the dark sweater sitting closest to the car (behind another red-haired lady with glasses) is my Grammie Howe – Clifton’s wife, my Mom’s Mom.
Whoever took this photo, snapped several shots of this occasion. In one of them we could make out a box of Mars bars. It is interesting to me that of all the surviving photos from my Mom’s family, these are the only ones documenting a meal on Thanksgiving Day.
Fourteen years after this photo was taken, when my Mom would be nineteen, her Dad would die of a heart attack at age 53\. By then, the family farm would have 3 mortgages on it. My Grandmother would have to sell the farm, and move down to Randolph, Maine where she’d support herself teaching in the local middle school.
All these things and more, were yet to come. But on this sunny windswept hill in Maine, a hard working family took time out to celebrate Thanksgiving in their own way. In so doing, they left us all with a bright example of how families like yours and mine can take the day and make it our own.
At Thanksgiving these days, we often go around the table and try to say what we’re thankful for. It’s a lot more than we can list, or even remember, and certainly more than we deserve.
And there’s always one thing I’m thankful for – something I see in my family – something I treasure and never want to lose: that same independent streak that was evident on a hill in Maine so long ago is alive and well today. It probably runs in your family too. Though all our ups and downs, in our better moments, something inside reminds us to ignore the marketing and the slogans: Let's get together, take the day, and make it our own.
Photo by [Paulius Dragunas](https://unsplash.com/@paulius005?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## 🪶Light Reading for the Thanksgiving Weekend
**Federal Reserve's History of the Great Depression:** why [the Federal Reserve officially believes they helped create the Great Depression](https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/great-depression?ref=s3t.org), and how this shaped the Federal Reserve's structure and policies we are familiar with today.
**Colleges Are Surrendering to AI:** Yascha Mounk suspects that teachers will soon join students in outsourcing their work to AI, but argues there's [a better way for equipping students for the age of artificial intelligence](https://www.persuasion.community/p/why-ill-encourage-my-students-to?ref=s3t.org). It's not all or nothing: "*In some courses and contexts, students must be forced to prove their intellectual mettle without the use of digital tools. In other courses and contexts, they should be given the knowledge and the know how to use these tools to the best effect.*"
**What can we learn from 16th century Nuns?** A lot say Ana Garriga and Carmen Urbita the authors of [*Convent Wisdom: How Sixteenth-Century Nuns Could Save Your Twenty-First-Century Life*](https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Convent-Wisdom/Ana-Garriga/9781668065518?ref=s3t.org) *(NY Times Review* [*here*](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/15/books/nuns-convent-wisdom.html?ref=s3t.org)*).*
**Why do some animals have spots while others have stripes?** How scientists are [building on Alan Turing's pattern mechanism to work out the logic of animal patterns](https://knowablemagazine.org/content/article/living-world/2024/animal-patterns-spots-stripes-explained-turing-mechanism?ref=s3t.org).
---
### **\[more S3T resources\]**
- See the [S3T Economic Dashboard](https://www.s3t.org/dashboard/) for the Top 500+ US & International real-time economic indicators.
- Monitor the crypto market volatility with the[ S3T Crypto Market Cap tracker](https://www.s3t.org/cmc/) \- the top assets by market cap in a single map.
- Get an overview of the full [Change Leadership Learning Series](https://www.s3t.org/change-leadership-learning-series/).
---
##
Wild Turkey, Madera Canyon AZ, April 2025 photo by Ralph Perrine
## P.S Thank you and Happy Thanksgiving!
Hope you are having a wonderful week with friends and family.
Just want to say thank you for reading and sharing the S3T newsletter and podcast - and inviting others to sign up.
Thank you also for your feedback and sharing what you are working on, and how you are applying the change leadership skills and insights you are learning.
It is amazing to me - and humbling - to think about S3T readers around the world focusing on intentional innovation and creating beneficial change.
This is the truly important work - harnessing emerging technologies and economic evolution to enable better outcomes - and its a privilege to be working and learning together.
Best wishes,
Ralph
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### Economic Experience, Tariff revenues, AI Benchmarks, Abundance mindset...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/economic-experience-tariff-revenues-ai-benchmarks-abundance-mindset/
Last updated: 2025-11-21T06:28:46.000Z
**A scarcity mindset always loses, and makes others lose too.**
S3T PodCast Nov 21, 2025
0:00
/1371.7159183673468
1×
🎧 Listen here [or on Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/episode/3ON7lIaPzdipkA3YnxlW0A?si=1NIWyBjlTY2nwQ6TX%5FvpKQ&ref=s3t.org).
---
### TLDR
- 📊 **Economic Experience Dashboard launched:** Traditional inflation metrics miss real household strain; new multi-source indicators show **over half of Americans in financial distress**.
- 🧮 **Tariffs aren’t replacing income taxes:** Treasury data shows tariff revenue (\~$247B) has peaked and is **10× too small** to offset individual income taxes—leaving individuals carrying a disproportionate burden.
- 🪙 **Crypto sentiment cooling:** With prices down from 2025 highs, investors question whether a **new growth narrative** exists or whether crypto has entered a structural “lower-range” phase.
- ⚠️ **Quantum risk to Bitcoin:** A $1.8T asset depends on \~1,200–1,800 open-source developers, while major tech firms have **formal post-quantum security programs**—raising concerns about Bitcoin’s long-term resilience.
- 🤖 **AI benchmarks shifting:** AA-Omniscience ranks **Claude 4.1 Opus** highest in knowledge depth and lowest in hallucinations, reflecting rapid evolution in LLM quality.
- 🏢 **Public vs private AI race:** Enterprise agents (Databricks Genie, Snowflake Cortex) increasingly match—or exceed—public models thanks to **direct access to proprietary data** and maturing agent capabilities.
- ⚡ **AI bubble signals & phantom data centers:** Insider selling, executive warnings, and non-viable data centers without secured power contracts all point to **overheating in AI infrastructure investment**, underscoring the need for due diligence.
---
### **\[macro-economics\]**
## 🔥Introducing the Economic Experience Dashboard
As noted in previous S3T editions, the current methods of [measuring inflation and affordability are flawed](https://www.s3t.org/inflation-tracking/).
The Economic Experience Dashboard is designed to provide a corrected view of the actual economic experience of the US population. By factoring together multiple economic data sources we can track the actual financial health and experience of individuals and families trying to balance a budget.
The data gathered for our inaugural publication of the Economic Experience Dashboard suggests that more than half of Americans are currently experiencing some level of financial distress (partial screenshot above).
Click here to visit the [S3T Economic Experience Dashboard](https://www.s3t.org/eed/).
---
Photo by [Elevate](https://unsplash.com/@elevatebeer?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### Tariff revenue isn’t changing the math
[This analysis of US Treasury Dept data](https://www.politico.com/interactives/2025/trump-tariff-income-tracker/?ref=s3t.org) shows the additional revenue being generated by tariffs. Two clear indicators from the data so far:
- While tarriff revenue jumped steeply in the first half of 2025, it is now leveling off as tariffs are scaled back and / or as consumer behavior changes. If it continues to level off, the **net revenues will end up being lower than before the tariffs.**
- The new revenue is not large enough to achieve the original goal of tariffs which was to “replace the income tax as the main source of funding for the federal government.“
Sounds good in theory: Use income from tariffs to reduce the tax burden on individuals who currently provide a much larger portion of the federal government’s revenue than corporations (even though corporation earn far more). The combined total income of the top 500 corporations is almost twice that of all individuals - yet[ individuals carry a much bigger tax burden.](https://www.s3t.org/taxes/)
But after a little math homework, you'll see this idea turns out to be massively wishful thinking: Per Treasury Dept data the US is on track to collect \~$247 Billion in tariff revenue this year. To offset individual income tax it would have to be 10x bigger.
You can monitor ongoing developments at the Wharton [Real-Time Federal Budget Tracker](https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/4/3/real-time-federal-budget-tracker?ref=s3t.org) and [Tarriff Revenue Financial Simulator](https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/2/26/tariff-revenue-simulator?ref=s3t.org).
**Full Access Members:** See the [S3T Economic Dashboard](https://www.s3t.org/dashboard/) for the Top 500+ US & International real-time economic indicators.
---
## 🐻 Crypto Bear market or just a Bull cool down?
Sentiment is shifting in the crypto world. Bitcoin slipped below 86k this week on Thursday, down from 115k a month ago. As the prices fall sharply off earlier 2025 highs, **2 key questions seem to be on the minds of investors:**
### Question #1 is there a reason to believe in further growth?
As [the Economist notes](https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/11/18/crypto-got-everything-it-wanted-now-its-sinking?ref=s3t.org), crypto has become widely adopted across institutions, raising the question of *will there be the next big narrative for growth?* Or is it all downhill from here?
Key crypto projects have now begun to cannibalize each other’s market share. This started to become evident in the 2024 cycle. See insights and market cap analysis here in[ this retrospective on 2024 Crypto Market Caps](https://www.s3t.org/crypto-market-cap-moves-nov-2023-to-nov-2024/).
### Question #2 Are Bitcoin developers (and other crypto teams) serious enough about the threat of quantum computing?
As noted in previous editions of S3T, quantum computers will be capable of breaking the encryption that Bitcoin relies on today ([handy Deloitte explainer here](https://www.deloitte.com/nl/en/services/consulting-risk/perspectives/quantum-computers-and-the-bitcoin-blockchain.html?ref=s3t.org)).
Bitcoin is currently a $1.7 trillion asset maintained by 1,200–1,800 open-source developers.
Contrast this to other trillion dollar 'assets' one could invest in: companies like Apple, AWS, Microsoft have valuations north of $1T but have hundreds of thousands of carefully vetted employees. They are also highly regulated, and accountable to shareholders. Crucially they have published committed plans for post quantum security.
Examples:
- [Apple has introduced PQ3](https://security.apple.com/blog/imessage-pq3/?ref=s3t.org) a post-quantum cryptography protocol using the CRYSTALS-Kyber (ML-KEM) algorithm, with independent security analysis papers ([here](https://security.apple.com/assets/files/A%5FFormal%5FAnalysis%5Fof%5Fthe%5FiMessage%5FPQ3%5FMessaging%5FProtocol%5FBasin%5Fet%5Fal.pdf?ref=s3t.org) and [here](https://security.apple.com/assets/files/Security%5Fanalysis%5Fof%5Fthe%5FiMessage%5FPQ3%5Fprotocol%5FStebila.pdf?ref=s3t.org))
- AWS has established an [AWS Post- Quantum Security Migration Plan](https://aws.amazon.com/blogs/security/aws-post-quantum-cryptography-migration-plan/?ref=s3t.org)
- [Microsoft Post Quantum Security Progress Statement](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/security/blog/2025/08/20/quantum-safe-security-progress-towards-next-generation-cryptography/?ref=s3t.org)
Bitcoin on the other hand, has multiple Bitcoin Improvement Proposals (aka BIPs), like [BIP:TBD](https://github.com/jlopp/bips/blob/quantum%5Fmigration/bip-post-quantum-migration.mediawiki?ref=s3t.org) and [BIP-360](https://github.com/cryptoquick/bips/blob/p2qrh/bip-0360.mediawiki?ref=s3t.org) (Bitcoin Improvement Protocol #360) written by someone who apparently prefers anonymity:
To be fair, the BIPs are generally well written and could prove feasible. Also, Hunter Beast and others are certainly entitled to privacy and control over what personal information is disclosed.
But from the POV of an institutional investor, Bitcoin reads like an unusual concentration of value atop a very small, loosely structured and largely unregulated developer community:
- Key leaders operate under pseudonyms
- History of [sharp division](https://www.forbes.com/sites/matthougan/2021/08/25/why-bitcoin-is-so-divisive/?ref=s3t.org) and forks.
- Has not yet honed in on an agreed approach to ensure Bitcoin can withstand a quantum computing attack.
Unlike the larger more organized efforts of the other Trillion dollar entities, which have clear roadmaps and well funded initiatives, the Bitcoin developer community has proposals which appear to be still very much under discussion.
**My Take:** crypto always was and probably always will be a risky asset class - that didn't change just because a lot of institutional investors have piled in. Going forward:
- Watch for the emergence of a credible / durable narrative that explains why Bitcoin should go to $1million or any of the other astronomical predictions that have been made.
- If such a narrative doesn't take hold, the asset price may whipsaw within the lower half of its historical range.
- If the Bitcoin developer community doesn't bring forward an actionable Post-Quantum-Security roadmap by mid-2026, we could see more and more institutional investors pulling the plug.
---
### **\[emerging tech\]**
## AI: The race to actionable insights continues amid signs of a bubble
Click image to expand - [Courtesy of Artificial Analysis](https://x.com/artificialanlys/status/1990455484844003821?ref=s3t.org)
### New benchmark for AI knowledge & hallucination
[Artificial Analysis has introduced AA-Omniscience](https://x.com/artificialanlys/status/1990455484844003821?ref=s3t.org), which uses 40+ topics to measure depth of knowledge and ability to avoid hallucinations. The current rankings show Claude 4.1 Opus in first place - best knowledge, fewest hallucinations.
---
### The race between public vs private AI Agents to produce actionable insights
Public AI Agents like ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, all have sharpened their ability to deliver actionable insights from data that they have access to. You can ask these agents to analyze large datasets or documents and then produce actionable recommendations and insights - with increasingly impressive results.
But private enterprise players like [Databricks Genie](https://www.databricks.com/product/business-intelligence/ai-bi-genie?ref=s3t.org) and [Snowflake Cortex](https://www.snowflake.com/en/product/features/cortex/?ref=s3t.org) are also catching up and in some examples appear to exceed the abilities of their public counterparts. This is due in part to their ability to connect to proprietary data sources since they operate from inside a company's secured environment. But these players are also maturing and building out the offerings in ways that boost their ability to compete with the public AI Agents who - up til now - have been assumed to be the dominant players.
---
### 🧋Latest roundup of AI bubble indicators
- According to filings, [Peter Thiel's Thiel Macro sold entire Nvidia stake in Q3 amid concerns about an AI bubble](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-17/peter-thiel-s-fund-sold-off-entire-nvidia-stake-in-third-quarter?ref=s3t.org).
- Klarna CEO Sebastian Siemiatkowski is [“nervous about the size of these investments in these data centers”](https://t.co/sTmmFVd4my?ref=s3t.org)
- [Sundar Pichai says AI boom has some “irrationality”](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwy7vrd8k4eo?ref=s3t.org) suggests no company will be immune when AI bubble bursts.
- Which AI companies are most over valued? Conference attendees said they'd short Perplexity and OpenAI at [Cerebral Valley AI Conference](https://www.businessinsider.com/at-an-ai-conference-attendees-were-asked-which-startup-they-would-short-2025-11?ref=s3t.org).
Jensen Huang begs to differ. On the heels of their latest earnings report, the Nvidia CEO said "[There has been a lot of talk about an AI bubble. From our vantage point we see something very different](https://www.economist.com/business/2025/11/19/cracks-are-appearing-in-openais-dominant-facade?ref=s3t.org)."
---
### ⚠️Beware of non viable AI data center projects
A growing number of AI data centers under construction [actually lack secured power contracts or confirmed grid connectivity](https://www.lppc.org/news/data-centers-that-dont-exist-yet-are-already-haunting-the-grid?ref=s3t.org)(!) Because modern AI data centers require enormous, continuous power (often hundreds of megawatts), projects without guaranteed energy supply are effectively non-viable: they cannot operate, cannot meet SLAs, may struggle to pay contractors and vendors as financing unravels.
**Key Takeaway: When evaluating or contracting with data centers—especially new or AI-focused builds—ask direct, detailed questions about their power situation.**
- Confirm whether they have executed power-purchase agreements, secured long-term utility interconnection, locked in substation capacity, and obtained firm timelines from the local grid operator.
- Press for documentation, not projections and keep in mind “planned” substations or upgrades may be years out.
In the current environment (where data centers projects without real power access are proliferating) verifying power commitments is essential to avoid non-viable customers, delayed payments, and stranded deployments.
---
### 📖AI related playbooks
- [Spend Wisely in a Hype-Driven World](https://www.s3t.org/spendwisely/)
- [Gaining Buy-in for Data Modernization](https://www.s3t.org/s3t-playbook-data-modernization/)
- [Shift to effective gatekeeping in the age of generative AI](https://www.s3t.org/genai-supervisory-workloads/)
- [Validating AI use cases](https://www.s3t.org/validating-ai-use-cases/)
See [Full List of S3T Playbooks](https://www.s3t.org/playbooks/)
---
### \[change leadership mindset\]
### This week's Change Leadership lesson: [The abundant mindset vs the scarcity mindset](https://www.s3t.org/abundance-vs-scarcity/)
Why is an abundant mindset so important? **A scarcity mindset always loses, and makes everyone else lose too.** An abundance mindset enables more effective solutions to the complex challenges of the 21st century. To find out why and how, click the link above for this critical learning segment.
Click here for an overview of the full [Change Leadership Learning Series](https://www.s3t.org/change-leadership-learning-series/).
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### 👾AGI on a leash, Rogue AI forks, single vs integrated POV, Skimmers
URL: https://www.s3t.org/agi-on-a-leash-rogue-ai-forks-single-vs-integrated-pov-skimmers/
Last updated: 2025-11-14T03:58:25.000Z
*Is AGI the biggest threat? Or is it humans empowered with AGI??*
S3T PodCast Nov 14 2025
0:00
/1325.635918367347
1×
🎧 Listen here [or on Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/episode/4xspe6vCM4j3hQZtKvehAn?si=9PS3NgUfSJiCzO8l0DesWg&ref=s3t.org)
---
### 👾In this Issue
- 📊 **Progress Toward AGI Is Measurable but Limited** — CAIS’s benchmark-based AGI framework (e.g., GPT-4 at \~27%, GPT-5 at \~57%) shows we remain far from true AGI.
- ⚖️ **The Real Risk May Be Humans Using AI Against Humans** — AGI is often framed as “AI vs. humanity,” but history suggests the more likely danger is human actors using AI to exploit others.
- 🛡️ **Policy and Safety Landscape Is Moving Slowly** — India’s AI Mission, EU AI Act, G7 Hiroshima Process, and UK’s Bletchley efforts establish early guardrails, while system-card evaluations (e.g., Anthropic’s “supervirus” dual-hazard test) show risks creeping closer to danger zones.
- 🚧 **Near-Term Harms Deserve the Most Urgent Attention** — Many serious risks do not require AGI: misuse, errors, cascading failures, and poorly governed deployments can cause real harm today. Prepare wisely.
- 🔄 **Change Leaders Must Avoid the Single-POV Trap** — Complex decisions suffer when one discipline dominates. Leaders must integrate tech, finance, legal, innovation, governance, and security perspectives to form a layered decision strategy.
- 🧩 **Take a Layered Approach to Managing Risks** — Effective organizations combine:
• *Financial mitigation* (insurance, contingency funds)
• *Operational risk control* (guardrails, governance, security)
• *Strategic value creation* (partnerships, market share, learning).
- 🐦 **Nature Notes: Bird “Spectacles” Reveal Complex Collective Behavior** — A massive gathering of Black Skimmers offers a parallel to emergent intelligence: large groups move in coordinated, dynamic patterns while feeding across an inlet, echoing the mysteries of large, coordinated systems—including AI and human organizations.
Full Access Members: See the [S3T Economic Dashboard](https://www.s3t.org/dashboard/) for the Top 500+ US & International real-time economic indicators.
---
### **\[emerging tech\]**
[A Definition of AGI ](https://www.agidefinition.ai/?ref=s3t.org)
## A better way to measure progress toward Artificial General Intelligence
Researchers at the [Center for AI Safety](https://safe.ai/?ref=s3t.org) have assembled [a working definition of AGI](https://www.agidefinition.ai/?ref=s3t.org) which uses a comprehensive set of benchmarks to measure where we actually are in the progression toward AGI.
As shown in their spider chart above, the approach quantifies performance across a range of criteria and delivers AGI scores (GPT-4 at 27%, GPT-5 at 57%), all of which suggest we have considerable ground to cover before actually achieving quantifiable AGI. [Their paper](https://www.agidefinition.ai/paper.pdf?ref=s3t.org) details the methodology and findings so far. Special thanks to Todd Brous of HBAP for sharing this!
What follows are a series of slides from a recent talk I gave on AGI. You can think about AGI as a race between humans and technology:
A dangerous scenario - where AI technology races ahead of humans - would manifest itself as an inability of humans to understand what an AI entity is doing or planning, and an inability to exercise any meaningful influence or control over that AI entity.
But there are other scenarios to think about:
The "human vs human with AI" scenario reminds us of a critical question: Is AI the biggest threat? *Or is it humans empowered with AI, taking advantage of humans who are not?*
One of the saddest patterns in history is that humans use their immense intelligence and creativity to devise amazing tools and systems... and then use them to exploit humanity. Will AI be any different? It could be.
But we need to guard against the tendency to harness technology simply as a way to avoid or escape accountability.
Still another scenario - Rogue Forks:
### What do we mean by "Artificial General Intelligence?"
Working definitions used by labs & scholars:
- OpenAI (operational): “highly autonomous systems that outperform humans at most economically valuable work.” [OpenAI](https://openai.com/our-structure/?ref=s3t.org)
- DeepMind (capabilities view): systems that can understand, reason, plan, and act autonomously across domains. [Google DeepMind](https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/taking-a-responsible-path-to-agi/?ref=s3t.org)
- Legg & Hutter (theory): “general intelligence” as performance across a wide range of environments; foundational in AGI literature.[Geortzel](https://agi-conf.org/2010/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/paper%5F14.pdf?ref=s3t.org) [PhilPapers](https://philpapers.org/rec/LEGUIA?ref=s3t.org)
### The policy landscape is moving tentatively/slowly
- [India AI Mission](https://indiaai.gov.in/?ref=s3t.org) (2024): compute democratization & ethical AI governance.
- India AI Governance Guidelines ([Full Text](https://static.pib.gov.in/WriteReadData/specificdocs/documents/2025/nov/doc2025115685601.pdf?ref=s3t.org) | [Summary](https://babl.ai/india-releases-landmark-ai-governance-guidelines-emphasizing-safety-accountability-and-inclusion/?ref=s3t.org))
- [Digital Personal Data Protection Act ](https://www.meity.gov.in/static/uploads/2024/06/2bf1f0e9f04e6fb4f8fef35e82c42aa5.pdf?ref=s3t.org)(2023): privacy obligations for research.
- [EU AI Act](https://artificialintelligenceact.eu/?ref=s3t.org): risk‑based classification for AI systems.
- [G7 Hiroshima Process](https://www.soumu.go.jp/hiroshimaaiprocess/en/index.html?ref=s3t.org) & [UK Bletchley Declaration](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/ai-safety-summit-2023-the-bletchley-declaration/the-bletchley-declaration-by-countries-attending-the-ai-safety-summit-1-2-november-2023?ref=s3t.org) promote frontier AI safety.
### But the risks are real - and coming closer
Consider this example from a [current Anthropic system card](https://www-cdn.anthropic.com/6d8a8055020700718b0c49369f60816ba2a7c285.pdf?ref=s3t.org):
The evaluation referred to in this model card is employed to test whether a model can design a "supervirus" and design it in such a way that it would appear *harmless* to standard screening protocols. The test requires the model to do both things (design and evade) successfully in order to consider it a hazard.
Notice the nuance between "threshold reached" vs. "threshold close" in the Threshold paragraph above.
Per the current scoring, Anthropic models are able to either one successfully but not *both*. But how long will this situation remain? And, does this testing approach cover scenarios where a model might design parts of a pathogen that could evade screening and then be combined later?
### Key resources for AI Safety and Risk Management
- Model‑level safety: Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF). Variants: [HC-RLHF](https://rlj.cs.umass.edu/2025/papers/RLJ%5FRLC%5F2025%5F62.pdf?ref=s3t.org), [Safe RLHF Github](https://github.com/PKU-Alignment/safe-rlhf?ref=s3t.org), [Safe RLHF paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2310.12773?ref=s3t.org)
- Principle‑based training (Constitutional AI) improves value alignment ([paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.08073?ref=s3t.org)).
- Key Reference: [NIST AI Risk Management Framework](https://www.nist.gov/itl/ai-risk-management-framework?ref=s3t.org)
- Ethan Mollick “[One Useful Thing](https://www.oneusefulthing.org/p/an-opinionated-guide-to-using-ai?ref=s3t.org)” has helpful updates
- **Make it a point to read model and system cards.**
Now, I've been asked, "Well what should we be preparing for?" Couple thoughts:
- In a world moving toward AGI, it’s very tempting to jump straight to the big dystopian scenarios — runaway superintelligence, etc. While those questions deserve thoughtful research, the most meaningful preparation starts with the risks already in front of us.
- Many harmful outcomes don’t require AGI at all: misuse, confusion, large-scale errors, and cascading failures can happen with today’s systems and bring great harm. These harms are preventable if we stay diligent, thoughtful, and hands-on with how emerging technologies are actually getting deployed.
So I don't discourage those who focus on the existential threat scenarios, **but for most of us as change leaders, the constructive path is very clear: let's focus on shaping the near-term use of tech:**
- Build safeguards into the systems you’re adopting,
- Ask where technology might cause avoidable harm, and
- design processes that keep humans informed, engaged, and accountable.
Tackling these practical challenges not only protects people today — it also builds the habits, muscles, and collaborative networks that will help us respond wisely if larger risks ever emerge. And if those who study the long-term horizon discover real warning signs, we’ll be better positioned to act together with clarity, competence, and purpose.
Whatever super intelligence entity await us in the future, one thing is certain: it will be a series of working components, all of which will require a *supply chain* to continue functioning. We should be thinking of how we can insert ourselves into that supply chain so that we can intervene however, we need to.
---
### \[change leadership\]
## Avoid the POV Trap in Emerging Tech Decisions
*☑️ Action: Send this to your team and schedule time to talk about how to put this into practice this week.*
In an economic cycle that has quite likely over-invested in AI, decision-makers today face immense pressure to eke out some kind of ROI, margin or just proof of progress. But today's decisions often present complex, nuanced considerations, and require multi-disciplinary due diligence to tease out the deciding factors.
The few winners of this AI cycle won’t be the ones who move the fastest or the ones who play the safest. The winners - and there may not be many - will be the ones who can integrate multiple points of view: tech, finance, governance, risk, and innovation into a single, clear decision path...ie a clear actionable sequence of do this, then decide this, then do this, decide this etc.
Viewing the opportunities (and problems) through *multiple lenses* rather than one gives teams a better chance of **finding those pivotal details that give critical insights and unlock key advantages.**
### The Single POV Trap
When facing complex challenges, each discipline tends to view the problem through one lens — and only through that lens.
- Governance teams tend to frame things in context of review and approval gates, but bog down when they lack the expertise to provide meaningful scrutiny.
- Security teams tend to see things as a firewall / access control issues but don’t know how to calculate opportunity costs.
- C-suites tend to frame things in terms of revenue and reputational risks and chronically [underperform in capital reallocation](https://www.morganstanley.com/content/dam/im/assets/publication/thought-leadership/consilient-observer/article%5Fcapitalallocation.pdf?ref=s3t.org).
- Finance teams fixate on the current quarter or fiscal year in ways that make it harder to reduce costs or compete in future years.
- Insurance teams see coverage issues.
- AI red-team vendors see testing needs, etc
The list goes on. Each is partly right — but none is complete. On their own they'll miss pivotal details.
The trap to avoid: Never let one discipline define the entire problem and dictate the solution. This leads to one-dimensional decisions that slow innovation, burn time, block opportunity and more often than not, *actually increase risk.*
In today’s fast-moving environment defaulting to a “lock-it-down” approach may protect you against some risks for now, but may also cost you market share you’ll never regain.
### Sometimes the smarter play is a layered approach
Effective change leaders seek out and leverage multiple POVs to create a *layered approach:*
- Mitigate risk *financially* (insurance, contingency funds)
- Manage risk *operationally* (guardrails, governance, security solutions)
- Advance value creation *strategically* (partnerships, investment, market share, learning, customer impact).
Leaders who integrate these perspectives — instead of letting one dominate — help their organizations move faster and safer.
The mindset shift: teach your leaders and teams to prioritize blended expertise over single-discipline points of view.
### Don’t let any single discipline define the problem or the solution
When faced with complexity, individual disciplines often fight to control the framing. Tech says "build", governance says “review,” security says “block,” insurance says “cover” while other stakeholders may say "wait". The real risk? Letting one lens define reality.
Bring different kinds of expertise *together* — tech, finance, legal, security, governance etc — to form an integrated POV so you and your team can act from a position of clarity.
### Click here to access this week‘s change leadership learning segment: [Harmonize Different Kinds of Expertise to Achieve Success](https://www.s3t.org/harmonize-expertise/)
Click here for an overview of the full [Change Leadership Learning Series](https://www.s3t.org/change-leadership-learning-series/).
---
###
**\[AI related playbooks\]**
- [Validating AI use cases](https://www.s3t.org/validating-ai-use-cases/)
- [Gaining Buy-in for Data Modernization](https://www.s3t.org/s3t-playbook-data-modernization/)
- [Shift to effective gatekeeping in the age of generative AI](https://www.s3t.org/genai-supervisory-workloads/)
- [How to Stop Zombie Projects from Sapping your Focus and Resources](https://www.s3t.org/stop-zombie-projects/)
---
### \[nature notes\]
Photo by Ralph Perrine
## Spectacles, murmurations & "group soul" - our attempts to define the mass movements of birds
I got a chance to take an early morning walk on the beach and witness an unusually large gathering of Black Skimmers - large seabirds with orange and black beaks.
The large gathering of Skimmers I observed seemed to be feeding. There were at least 3 large groups of perhaps a thousand each, moving up and down an inlet between two barrier islands. They would suddenly swoop down and skim just above the water using their oddly shaped beaks (with lower mandible longer than the upper) to snag fish. Then just as suddenly the entire flock would lift off the water surface and move in a group up into the sky, always eyeing the water. At the same time one or two other large groups might be skimming the surface or moving back up to higher elevation ready for the next feeding run.
Photo by Ralph Perrine
[This Audubon article](https://www.audubon.org/magazine/how-flock-birds-can-fly-and-move-together?utm%5Fsource=chatgpt.com) has a panoramic history of our attempts to understand why and how birds sometimes gather and move in very large flocks - often called "spectacles" in the birding world. The truth is, there is still so much we don't know.
Learn more about Black Skimmers at Cornell's All About Birds site:
[Black Skimmer Overview, All About Birds, Cornell Lab of OrnithologyA long-winged bird with stark black-and-white plumage, the Black Skimmer has a unique grace as it forages in flight. Skimmers feed by opening the bill and dropping the long, narrow lower mandible into the water, skimming along until they feel a fish. Then they relax the neck, quickly closing their jaws and whipping the fish out of the water. Because they feed by essentially by touch, they can even forage at night. The world’s three species of skimmers are the only birds on earth that feed in this manner.All About Birds](https://www.allaboutbirds.org/guide/Black%5FSkimmer/overview?ref=s3t.org)
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### Navigating the noise - change leadership in the age of engineered beliefs
URL: https://www.s3t.org/nov-7-2025/
Last updated: 2025-11-07T06:28:22.000Z
*Political strategists don't care what you think - they want to know what you can be led to believe.*
S3T PodCast Nov 7 2025
0:00
/796.6040816326531
1×
🎧 Listen here [or on Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/episode/34ETzjZ1uQrjSeW0osuVBM?si=8ZcXkD7FQwa2A-uOJCo1Eg&ref=s3t.org)
---
### This issue in 20 seconds 🧭
1. 🎤 **Bridging Disciplines for Progress** — In speaking engagements Ralph notes that every audience is seeking clarity and direction amid rapid change. True progress now depends on blending technology, economics, and human behavior.
2. 🌐 **Purpose of S3T** — The S3T newsletter and podcast aim to help leaders *see the larger pattern*, *find direction in complexity*, and *act with confidence* by combining diverse “sets” of expertise.
3. 🗳️ **Elections Signal Shift** — Recent U.S. local elections showed strong wins for progressive candidates, reflecting a possible turn toward pragmatic progressivism and prompting GOP reflection on voter priorities.
4. 🧠 **Manufacturing Consent Revisited** — Drawing on Chomsky and Herman’s classic work, the issue explores how today’s AI-driven platforms amplify persuasion, using data from our streaming and social habits to shape beliefs and behaviors.
5. 🎯 **Modern Political Strategy** — Political operatives don’t just seek to persuade but to *profile, target,* and even *marginalize* voters by exploiting emotional cues from digital behavior—revealing how easily perceptions can be engineered.
6. 🧵 **Change Leadership Mindset** — The “Life as a Tapestry” segment encourages leaders to embrace multifaceted responsibilities, balancing today’s demands with tomorrow’s designs, and redefining focus as integration rather than exclusion.
---
Photo by [Ricardo Rocha](https://unsplash.com/@rcrazy?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Are you S3T?
Week before last, I spoke at an industry conference on *AI in healthcare*, and next week I’ll be speaking at a *university faculty conference on Artificial General Intelligence*. Across these very different audiences, one thing stands out: everyone is searching for a way forward — to have a *positive impact*, to *adapt intelligently*, and to *lead effectively* through rapid change.
In every room I step into, I sense the same urgency: people want to know *what to do next* — how to cope, strategize, and take meaningful action in a world where familiar playbooks no longer work. That’s what excites me most about speaking and engaging with leaders and innovators today.
The answers are out there — but they’re not always obvious. Many of the specialized disciplines that once helped us avoid missteps and seize opportunities can no longer deliver the full picture on their own. Real progress now depends on our ability to *blend expertise across disciplines* — connecting insights from technology, economics, and human behavior — to find clarity and momentum.
That’s the core of what I help audiences do: *see the larger pattern*, *find direction amid complexity*, and *move forward with confidence*.
It’s also the inspiration behind my newsletter and podcast, *S3T* — named for the power of combining SETs of skills and perspectives to accelerate beneficial change. I hope you'll sign up today, and if you've already signed up please consider sharing the newsletter and podcast with a friend so we can help others learn and get S3T for success as well.
Ralph
*P.S. You can DM me on LinkedIn if you'd like to book me for a speaking engagement.*
---
### \[perspective\]
## Mid-Term Elections & the modern manufacturing of consent
This week US voters across the country turned out for local elections. Cost of living emerged as a dominant issue, with the shutdown weighing heavily on people's minds. In nearly all the races the [more progressive candidates appeared to win easily](https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/election-day-2025-voting-results/?ref=s3t.org). Virgina's new governor Abigail Spanberger cast the results as a shift toward progressive pragmatism while NY Mayor elect Mamdani claimed a mandate for change. All of this leaves the GOP to consider whether their hard right ideology is no longer what matters most to voters.
Latest analysis on results, campaigns and voter behavior here:
- [Sabato's Crystal Ball](https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/?ref=s3t.org) \- Forecasts of election trends and winners from the Center for Politics
- [Split Ticket](https://split-ticket.org/?ref=s3t.org) \- Excellent charts and analysis of US local and national elections
- [Pew Research Center](https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2025/06/26/behind-trumps-2024-victory-a-more-racially-and-ethnically-diverse-voter-coalition/?ref=s3t.org) \- surprising racial and ethnic diversity data from the 2024 election
SO it seems appropriate from 2 lenses, the results of this week's election and of course the upcoming midterms to look at the latest research and data on how the actions and beliefs of voters are shaped in the modern age. Today's AI powered communication platforms make large scale messaging and even manipulation more cost-effective than ever. But how many of us understand how that even works?
### Getting ready for 2026
By this time next year, the US Mid Term Elections will be over. Meticulous planning and positioning is already underway to sway voters. See BallotReady's [2026 midterms in 6 charts](https://organizations.ballotready.org/research/2026-election-preview?ref=s3t.org).
[Courtesy of Ballot Ready](https://organizations.ballotready.org/research/2026-election-preview?ref=s3t.org)
##
So let's do deep dive into the way modern media and technologies are used to *generate* political viewpoints.
In their 1998 book, In *Manufacturing Consent*, Noam Chomsky and Edward Herman argued that mass media was essentially a powerful propaganda system that shaped public opinion to align with elite interests. This was done not by overt censorship but via selective framing, repetition, and omission.
Today’s digital tracking and algorithmic profiling supercharge this process—allowing political strategists to micro-target individuals with personalized narratives that exploit their emotions and biases, not to persuade them of truth, but to test and determine what they can be *led* to believe.
Citizens from all sides of the political spectrum often shake their heads in disbelief to see what their fellow-citizens - neighbors, family members, co-workers can be persuaded to vote for.
They wonder in amazement: How could they possibly have been duped into voting for (insert political party or candidate here)???
Photo by [Simon Haslett](https://unsplash.com/@simondh?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### Where do political strategists get the insights they need to persuade voters so convincingly?
The answer is in **your living room** and in **your pocket**. As shared in the research below, insights from the our media consumption (streaming, social media scrolling) reveal way more than we realize. Marketing and political data analytics have advanced rapidly, and US voters have not kept up with just how sophisticated political opinion-making has become.
Consider all the clues available to someone who knows the following:
- What kind of shows you watch (dystopian themes? cooking shows?)
- How many episodes you binge-watch
- What you search for when you plop down on the couch
- Whether you watch only one news channel or several different ones
- What do you watch on your phone vs your TV or other devices?
- What do you pay for?
Even when we think we’re immune to persuasion, **we may still be strategically influenced—just not in the direction we expected**.
When strategists realize a voter won’t be persuaded to support their candidate, they shift tactics from *conversion* to *marginalization* through distraction, disillusionment, or division.
Today more than ever it is vital to inform ourselves about these not very well understood, but powerful techniques.
**Political strategists don't care *what you think* \- they want to know what *you can be led to believe*.**
As change leaders, we want to understand this issue, and help others understand it as well, so we can make more intentional choices. To help spread the word, consider sharing the following summary of latest voter psychology research with your friends and colleagues:
### 📺 S3T Perspective: [What your streaming and scrolling habits reveal to political strategists](https://www.s3t.org/your-streaming-scrolling-habits-reveal-how-to-manipulate-you/)
This S3T Perspective is a summary with links to in-depth research on how our binge-watching and scrolling habits teach political strategists which manipulative messages we're most vulnerable to.
---
## Resources for your Annual Reviews & Goals
- [The Question Top Managers Ask During Performance Reviews](https://www.s3t.org/the-question-top-managers-ask-during-performance-reviews/)
- [Signaling and Perspective Taking During Annual Reviews](https://www.s3t.org/annual-reviews-talent-strategy-brief/)
- [Incorporating Change Leadership into your Annual Reviews and Goals](https://www.s3t.org/incorporating-change-leadership-into-your-annual-goals-and-annual-reviews/)
---
### \[change leadership learning series\]
Photo by [Birmingham Museums Trust](https://unsplash.com/@birminghammuseumstrust?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## [Change Leadership mindset: life as a tapestry](https://www.s3t.org/tapestry/)
Embracing the multi-threaded nature of life is especially vital for change leaders who must often juggle responsibilities for *today's operations*, while designing and building the capabilities of *tomorrow*.
We’ve been conditioned to believe that focus, and prioritization and getting rid of the non-essentials is the way to succeed - and there's an element of truth to that.
**But how you apply this principle makes all the difference.**
Click the link above to access this week's Change Leadership learning segment and learn a better way to *think about your less than perfectly focused life.*
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### 🎃Oct 31: “AI’s Shockwave: White-Collar Layoffs, Pharma Supercomputers, Is Progress Affordable? 💥”
URL: https://www.s3t.org/oct-31-ais-shockwave-white-collar-layoffs-pharma-supercomputers-is-progress-affordable/
Last updated: 2025-10-31T02:36:11.000Z
*Change Leaders don’t downplay risk — they dissect it.*
S3T PodCast Template April 2025 103025 1031 PM
0:00
/1291.4677551020409
1×
🎧 Listen here [or on Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/episode/6famogTPGBzb6O2y49QcdE?si=9VLdR2fwSnSCv595rhAJQw&ref=s3t.org)
---
### In this Issue
### 🔹 **AI Reshapes White-Collar Work**
- Major firms (Amazon, UPS, Target, Coors, automakers) are cutting staff as executives bet AI can replace or augment many white-collar roles.
- Confidence in the job market is now at a 6-year low (WSJ).
### 💸 **CapEx Boom, Jobs Pause**
- Billions are flowing into AI infrastructure—cloud, chips, and data centers—creating short-term labor displacement but long-term hopes for new AI-powered industries and employment cycles.
### 🧬 **Pharma’s AI Arms Race**
- Eli Lilly & NVIDIA built the most powerful pharma supercomputer (1,000+ Blackwell GPUs) to accelerate drug discovery and production.
- Early adopters owning their own compute—not renting cloud—may gain durable R&D speed advantages.
### 💊 **Affordability Risk & Financial Innovation Need**
- Pharma’s AI megaspends could push drug prices higher; leaders must pioneer shared-infrastructure, tokenized R&D, or outcome-linked financing to avoid shifting costs to patients.
### ⚖️ **AI and Market Efficiency**
- AI is narrowing *information asymmetry*—reducing the “rip-off economy” by giving consumers data once reserved for sellers and intermediaries.
- But fewer intermediaries could also mean lost jobs and new fiscal stress points.
### 💰 **Crypto & Fintech Modernization Wave**
- Coinbase enables free off-chain payments via phone/email; MetaMask preps IPO; Mastercard buys ZeroHash; Google opens Play Store to alternative payments.
- These moves extend the “Magnificent 7” story into *wallets, payments, and digital ownership*—broadening tech’s growth narrative.
### ⚙️ **AI Energy & Infrastructure Cascade**
- Amazon’s $11 B AI data center (training Anthropic models) triggers a domino of energy and gas investments while Big Tech’s Q3 AI CapEx hit $80 B.
- Massive infrastructure bets show AI’s real-world footprint—and hint that precision, not hype, will separate sustainable gains from bubbles.
---
✅ *Takeaway for Change Leaders:* The 2020s challenge isn’t just smarter AI—it’s ensuring AI-driven productivity doesn’t erode affordability or access.
---
### **\[macro economics\]**
Photo by [Nastuh Abootalebi](https://unsplash.com/@sunday%5Fdigital?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## AI based layoffs: White collar jobs disappearing
As noted earlier Amazon has announced plans to lay off 14,000 workers. UPS, Target, Coors and several automakers have also made large workforce reductions. The noticeable trend: "[executives hope can handle more of the work that well-compensated white-collar workers have been doing](https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/white-collar-jobs-ai-324b749c?ref=s3t.org)." WSJ finds that confidence in the job market has fallen to a 6 year low.
[Courtesy WSJ](https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/white-collar-jobs-ai-324b749c?ref=s3t.org)
This may be cyclical. Right now the big $$$ are going to AI infrastructure, in hopes that this will create a new foundation of intelligent compute that powers the businesses and growth engines of tomorrow. If this new generation of AI powered businesses does emerge, one can hope they will generate a new wave of jobs - just as previous waves of innovation did.
## Pharma invests in AI: New costs for healthcare
Eli Lilly & Company has partnered with **NVIDIA** to build what both firms call *the most powerful supercomputer ever operated by a pharmaceutical company*. The system—powered by **1,000+ Blackwell GPUs**—will serve as Lilly’s “AI factory” for accelerating drug discovery, clinical development, and manufacturing optimization.
→ [NVIDIA Blog Announcement](https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/lilly-ai-factory-nvidia-blackwell-dgx-superpod/?ref=s3t.org)
→ [Reuters Coverage](https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/lilly-partners-with-nvidia-ai-supercomputer-speed-up-drug-development-2025-10-28/?ref=s3t.org)
Several key takeaways for Change Leaders:
- **Pharma Strategy:** This marks a structural shift in how large pharmaceutical firms compete—***owning* proprietary compute capacity rather than renting it from cloud providers**. Such control could accelerate drug discovery and production timelines, potentially giving early adopters a durable edge.
- **Infrastructure Economics:** For NVIDIA and data-center operators, this broadens the AI demand base beyond tech and finance, which at least incrementally increases likelihood of longer term ROI.
- **Cost Risk:** These multi-billion-dollar infrastructure investments introduce a new layer of **capital cost** that likely will be **passed downstream to healthcare consumers** through higher drug prices and system costs—at a time when U.S. households already face **record levels of medical debt**.
- **Need for Financial Innovation:** To prevent further erosion of affordability, the healthcare sector will need **innovative financing mechanisms**—for example, **shared infrastructure funds**, **tokenized R&D financing**, or **outcome-linked investment models**—that allow major AI capital formation **without transferring the burden to patients**.
For innovators and policy leaders, this development underscores a critical leadership challenge of the 2020s: how to sustain AI-driven productivity gains while protecting consumers from cost inflation. The sector’s next frontier isn’t just *AI innovation*—it’s *financial innovation* that makes such progress socially and economically sustainable.
---
Full Access Members: See the [S3T Economic Dashboard](https://www.s3t.org/dashboard/) for the Top 500+ US & International real-time economic indicators.
---
Photo by [Lorenzo Gerosa](https://unsplash.com/@gerolori?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### AI may be changing the information asymmetry issue in markets
One of the Achilles heels of the free market economy is the problem of *information asymmetry*: where one party (usually the seller) has information that the other party (usually the buyer) doesn’t have. In 2015 [this paper hypothesized that AI would reduce information asymmetry](https://blogs.cornell.edu/info2040/2015/11/26/artificial-intelligence-can-reduce-information-asymmetry/?ref=s3t.org) in markets, since AI agents would be better able to gather, process and retain large amounts of information.
***"As AI goes mainstream, it will remove one of the most enduring distortions in modern capitalism: the information advantages that sellers, service providers and intermediaries enjoy over consumers."** \- [Economist Oct 27, 2025](https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/10/27/the-end-of-the-rip-off-economy?ref=s3t.org)
More recently information gathered by the Economist suggest that this is actually coming to pass: [AI is ending (or at least reducing) the rip-off economy](https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/10/27/the-end-of-the-rip-off-economy?ref=s3t.org).
The impact of AI on *intermediaries* is worth watching. Today's economy is able to employ the number of workers that it does due to a large number of intermediaries. In theory these may seem like "wasteful" signs of an "inefficient market", but they do enable large numbers of people to earn an income. These incomes in turn allow governments to shift tax burdens from corporations to these same individuals. The unspoken contract has been that corporations will continue to employ these individuals. When this breaks down the musical chairs game will get interesting.
---
### **\[emerging tech\]**
Screen clip from Coinbase
## Coinbase: Send crypto with a phone number or email
The crypto sector is entering a new growth phase - the next big story after AI may be *financial infrastructure modernization*.
Example: Coinbase customers can now send funds directly to other Coinbase customers using their phone number, email address, or username. These *Off-chain* sends are instant, and incur no transaction fees. See [step by step instructions here](https://help.coinbase.com/en/coinbase/trading-and-funding/cryptocurrency-trading-pairs/steps-to-send-crypto?ref=s3t.org).
More developments:
- **Consensys**, the maker of MetaMask, is preparing for an IPO led by JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs—marking the first major crypto wallet to go public.
- **Mastercard** is set to acquire **ZeroHash** for nearly $2 billion, embedding stablecoin and tokenized-asset rails directly into its global payments network.
- **Google’s** decision to open the U.S. Play Store to alternative app payments creates a friendlier environment for crypto-based micropayments, NFT memberships, and fund transfers.
For investors, these moves may expand the “Magnificent 7” narrative beyond AI and chips into **wallets, payments, and digital-asset settlement systems**—the next frontier of tech-driven growth?
More broadly, this evolution points to a deeper economic need: **expanding capital ownership**. As wages continue to lag inflation, democratized access to tokenized assets, micro-investments, and digital ownership tools could help more individuals participate in wealth creation rather than being left behind.
**Sources:** [Axios](https://www.axios.com/pro/fintech-deals/2025/10/29/metamask-consensys-banks-ipo?ref=s3t.org), [Fortune](https://fortune.com/crypto/2025/10/29/mastercard-zerohash-acquisition-bvnk-stablecoins-coinbase/?ref=s3t.org), [Android Authority](https://www.androidauthority.com/google-play-store-opens-up-epic-games-ruling-3611542/?ref=s3t.org).
---
### Amazon's $11B AI data center: cascading investment impacts
Amazon just announced an [$11B AI data center focused on training Anthropic models using its own Trainium chips](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/29/amazon-opens-11-billion-ai-data-center-project-rainier-in-indiana.html?ref=s3t.org). The project hints at how massive AI investments are working their way through the economy:
- Amazon signs a deal with Indiana Michigan Power
- Indiana Michigan Power now buying an Ohio based natural gas plant to help meet power supplies
- This in turn boosts demand for natural gas.
- (At the same time Amazon is laying off 14,000 workers)
This partnership emerges amid an extraordinary surge in AI infrastructure investment: **Google, Meta, and Microsoft** together spent approximately **$80 billion in Q3 2025** on AI-related capital expenditures.
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang has publicly indicated he [does *not* believe the market is in an “AI bubble](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2025/10/30/2003846320?ref=s3t.org)**,”** projecting sales of up to **20 million Blackwell chips** versus 4 million Hopper units.
Current coverage:
- [Amazon Project Ranier AI Data Center goes live](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/29/amazon-opens-11-billion-ai-data-center-project-rainier-in-indiana.html?ref=s3t.org)
- [Business Insider: Big Tech’s AI Capex Spree](https://www.businessinsider.com/big-tech-capex-spending-ai-earnings-2025-10?ref=s3t.org)
- [Techmeme Coverage](https://www.techmeme.com/251030/p15?ref=s3t.org)
- [Amazon 11B AI data center to train Anthropic models](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/29/amazon-opens-11-billion-ai-data-center-project-rainier-in-indiana.html?ref=s3t.org)
---
### \[change leadership learning series\]
## **🔬Precision allows innovators to earn trust and investment**
Learn how to leverage a precision mindset to gain the confidence of your stakeholders, sell your ideas and drive successful innovation. **Change Leaders Don’t Downplay Risk** — they dissect It.
### [Click here to start learning about a Precision Mindset](https://www.s3t.org/precision-mindset/).
---
### 💯Bonus: [Top 5 Ways to Finish the Year Strong](https://www.s3t.org/finish-strong/)
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### ⚖️ Pivot, Persist, or Let Go: The New Discipline of Adaptive Leadership
URL: https://www.s3t.org/adaptiveleadership/
Last updated: 2025-10-24T03:56:34.000Z
As a change leader you may put yourself at risk: "*...if I push for this necessary change, or this beneficial innovation, I'm probably not going to be very popular.*"
S3T PodCast Oct 24, 2025
0:00
/1110.204081632653
1×
🎧 Listen here [or on Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/episode/1iyjjgUCKnAbD5D31WI7bU?si=EUE1En4%5FQcO2kYSmKw%5Fpmg&ref=s3t.org).
---
### This Issue in 30 seconds
1. 💎 **The Open Palm Mindset:**
True resilience for change leaders comes from learning to *let go* — of old plans, roles, and assumptions — so you can pivot quickly when life or work shifts unexpectedly.
2. 🧭 **Pivot Power:**
Being able to pivot gracefully is a learnable skill: it’s grounded in curiosity, humility, and readiness to learn or re-learn as new opportunities emerge.
3. 🌿 **Freedom through Release:**
Holding ambitions and outcomes too tightly can trap you. As Ralph’s father taught: *“Hold the things of this life in an open palm—if you grab them, they grab you back.”*
4. ⚖️ **Persist vs Pivot:**
Wisdom lies in knowing the difference—persist when growth still depends on you; pivot when something’s truly gone or complete.
5. ☁️ **Centralized vs Decentralized Tech:**
The latest AWS outage reignited debate about dependency on centralized infrastructure and spurred fresh validation for decentralized physical-infrastructure networks (DePIN).
6. 🤖 **Automation and Inequality:**
From warehouse robots to robotaxis, automation is accelerating. Economists warn that workforce hollowing and inflated valuations could set the stage for a correction echoing 1929.
7. 🦋 **The Butterfly Thief – Human Nature and Obsession:**
Even beauty and curiosity can lead to excess. The story of Colin Wyatt reminds us that unchecked desire—whether for innovation or collection—can distort purpose.
---
****📣 Update: Easier way for paid members to sign in!** Member signing has always been password-less: Instead of asking you to remember yet another password, we email a secure link that lets you log in instantly. Now we're adding a 2nd option that might be easier members who read S3T from their mobile devices: **one-time codes*. So when you sign in, you'll receive both a link and a unique one-time code.
### \[perspective\]
## [Change Leadership: The Open Palm Mindset](https://www.s3t.org/the-open-palm-mindset/)
When you're a change leader, sometimes you may put yourself at risk: you may have this moment of realization: wow if I push for this necessary change, or this beneficial innovation, I'm probably not going to be very popular.
When you’re a change leader, you often face moments where doing what’s right can put you in a very uncomfortable position. Staying grounded and moving forward without fear or resentment takes a special kind of resilience.
There's a secret to this special kind of resilience. I want to share with you something my dad taught me when I was younger. It has stayed with me all my life, helping me develop and strengthen **my ability to pivot.**
Some of your greatest opportunities will come to you after *unexpected change.* Will you be ready to take full advantage of the new opportunities being presented to you? **That all depends on your ability to pivot.** This certainly has been a theme for my own life, and most others I know.
### **What does Pivot Power mean?**
It means being able to let go of:
- Old Plans - things you were planning to do
- Grievances - things you wish *others* had or hadn't done,
- Regrets - things you wish *you* had or had not done
It means being open:
- Recognizing you don't know everything
- Being curious and ready to learn or re-learn
- Plunging into what's next
When life brings you unexpected change, letting go of the old and embracing the new is the key to moving to the next level.
This can be very difficult. So its important to learn how to on-ramp into this kind of thinking and working.
*What's the thought that makes this doable?*
### **An Open Palm**
Pivot power, being able to pivot quickly and gracefully comes with a mindset. At the heart of this mindset is a simple lesson that my Dad told me when I was a kid. I never forgot it.
You have to understand something about my Dad. When he was 17, he left his home in Ohio, hitchhiked out west and spent a number of years working as a cowboy at various ranches. The photo of him below was taken sometime during this period of his life. Living in the elements and dealing with the sometimes harsh and unforgiving realities of life on the open range - not to mention its colorful characters - taught him ways of thinking that he carried for the rest of his life.
Ralph Warren Perrine 1954 Spring Roundup Wyoming
One of them was a simple thought that is the secret to pivot power. He told me this:
*"Hold the things of this life in an open palm. Because if you try to grab onto them, they grab you back...and take away your freedom."*
It's some of the wisest and most useful advice I've ever heard.
### **The Open Palm Mindset**
Handling change in a positive and proactive way, rather than becoming overwhelmed or resistant to it, starts with that open palm mindset. The realization that whatever you have, **could be taken from you at any time.** Its related to the truth that **everything we have is given to us for a little while.** We will eventually relinquish it all.
With an open palm mindset you'll be able to pivot quickly and gracefully from one career chapter to the next opportunity. You'll be open to new ideas and ways of thinking, ready to build new relationships, while also being willing to lean on those who are there to support you through the transition.
### **When to persist vs when to pivot**
To be clear, this isn't the same thing as "giving up too easily". Here's the difference:
- When something is truly taken away, its time to *pivot*.
- When something is waiting for you to complete a required set of learning and work, its time to *persist*.
You'll know the difference.
### Putting it all together
Being able to pivot quickly and gracefully from one career chapter to the next opportunity requires a combination of adaptability, networking, and strong communication skills. But it all becomes doable with that "open palm mindset."
What may seem like the end of your greatest days, can actually be just the beginning of even greater ones.
This is one reason why S3T is so focused on helping you stay informed about emerging opportunities and giving you ways to articulate the value you'll bring to those new opportunity spaces. This helps you connect your skills and experiences to the needs of new potential employers or clients.
### Reflection Assignment
As you prepare for the coming week and the months ahead, take a few minutes to reflect on these questions and jot down your notes in a place you can refer to later.
1. **What do I need to let go of to embrace new opportunities fully?**
Consider plans, assumptions, or past disappointments that might be holding you back. How can releasing these make space for growth?
2. **How can I cultivate curiosity and stay open to learning?**
Reflect on areas where you may feel rigid or hesitant. Where might an open mind reveal new possibilities or help you see situations from a fresh perspective?
3. **Am I clear on when to pivot versus when to persist?**
Think about your current goals and projects. Where might a change in direction serve you better? And where do you feel called to stay steady and see things through?
In the week ahead, use these insights to guide your decisions, actions, and conversations. This will help build your Pivot Power and approach upcoming challenges with clarity and purpose.
### Take this with you
When you’re a change leader, you will often face moments where doing what’s right can put you at risk, or put you in a very uncomfortable position. But you can stay grounded and moving forward without fear or resentment when you have that special kind of resilience, that comes from the *Open Palm Mindset.*
*This is part of the* S3T [Change Leadership Learning Series](https://www.s3t.org/change-leadership-learning-series/).
---
Photo by [Christina @ wocintechchat.com](https://unsplash.com/@wocintechchat?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### **Bonus Resources: Annual Reviews & Goals**
It's that time again - time to review the year's accomplishments and start setting goals for the year ahead. Here is your **game changing advice - regardless of which side of the table you're sitting on:**
- [The Question Top Managers Ask During Performance Reviews](https://www.s3t.org/the-question-top-managers-ask-during-performance-reviews/)
- [Signaling and Perspective Taking During Annual Reviews](https://www.s3t.org/annual-reviews-talent-strategy-brief/)
- [Incorporating Change Leadership into your Annual Reviews and Goals](https://www.s3t.org/incorporating-change-leadership-into-your-annual-goals-and-annual-reviews/)
###
---
### \[emerging tech\]
## ☁️ Offline, online & down the line 🤖
### Offline: AWS - That's Strike 3!
This week's AWS outage set off alerts at thousands of companies forcing cloud teams across the country to jump out of bed in the middle of the night and find out why all their systems were down.
The nightmare was [especially bad for owners of the Eight Sleep smart beds](https://www.theverge.com/news/804289/eight-sleep-smart-bed-aws-outage-overheating-offline?ref=s3t.org). The temperature and incline settings rely on an app that needs a live connection to the AWS cloud. Users reported that the outage cause their beds overheat and get stuck in weird positions.
**The massive outage rekindled the** [**old debate between centralized vs decentralized apps**](https://www.techradar.com/vpn/vpn-privacy-security/we-need-to-go-beyond-signal-how-todays-aws-outage-shows-the-weaknesses-of-centralized-apps?ref=s3t.org)**.** This is the [3rd time in 5 years that AWS contributed to a major internet meltdown](https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/amazons-cloud-unit-reports-outage-several-websites-down-2025-10-20/?ref=s3t.org).
Advocates of Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks (DePIN) see the AWS outage as [more proof that a new model is needed](https://blockchain.news/flashnews/aws-outage-sparks-depin-momentum-tashiprotocol-s-tashi-tge-near-according-to-cryptomichnl?ref=s3t.org). See [AIOZ Network for an example](https://currently.att.yahoo.com/att/depin-powered-aioz-network-evolving-100103370.html?ref=s3t.org).
For cloud engineers: [Detailed technical root cause analysis from AWS](https://aws.amazon.com/message/101925/?ref=s3t.org) about what went wrong, and the ripple effects that made the outage so big.
### Online: OpenAI is feeling like American Express
ChatGPT [launched its own browser](https://openai.com/index/introducing-chatgpt-atlas/?ref=s3t.org): Atlas. Mobile versions are on the way. Early testing shows it’s [got potential but still a little clunky](https://arstechnica.com/features/2025/10/we-let-openais-agent-mode-surf-the-web-for-us-heres-what-happened/?ref=s3t.org).
OpenAI is moving aggressively, building partnerships with Microsoft (making GPT5 the standard LLM for Copilot), Databricks, and notably [Walmart](https://corporate.walmart.com/news/2025/10/14/walmart-partners-with-openai-to-create-ai-first-shopping-experiences?ref=s3t.org). And now their own web browser...that's a walled garden.
### Down the line: AGI is farther off than we thought…
Marcus on AI has gathered a set of data points suggesting that we are realizing that [we are not as close to AGI as we thought we were](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-last-few-months-have-been-devastating).
---
### **\[macro-economics\]**
Photo by [Homa Appliances](https://unsplash.com/@homaappliances?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
Full Access Members: See the [S3T Economic Dashboard](https://www.s3t.org/dashboard/) for the Top 500+ US & International real-time economic indicators.
## Automation may be starting to make a dent in the workforce
### Robots
Amazon seems on track to [replace 600,000 of its 1.5 million workers with robots by 2033](https://interestingengineering.com/culture/amazon-may-replace-human-jobs-with-robots?ref=s3t.org) per internal leaked documents. To be fair [the documents also show](https://www.cnet.com/tech/robots-may-replace-600000-human-employees-at-amazon/?ref=s3t.org) Amazon wishes to be "good corporate citizen" by donating to Toys for Tots. No mention however of Jobs for Tots Parents so they can buy Food for Tots.
### Robotaxis
Waymo is piloting robotaxis in Phoenix, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Austin, and Atlanta - with more destinations one the way ([soon, London](https://waymo.com/blog/2025/10/hello-london-your-waymo-ride-is-arriving?ref=s3t.org)). What will Waymo adoption do to [Uber's 7 million drivers](https://www.uber.com/newsroom/onlyonuber24/?ref=s3t.org)?
Data suggests [the global robotaxi fleet will exceed 900K by 2035](https://www.forbes.com/sites/sarwantsingh/2025/10/14/the-great-robotaxi-gamble-the-trillion-dollar-race-to-replace-your-uber-driver/?ref=s3t.org)...ie replacing some drivers but not all. But more robotaxi startups are entering the space; and operating costs are expected to drop from [2.31 today to 43 cents in 2035](https://www.forbes.com/sites/sarwantsingh/2025/10/14/the-great-robotaxi-gamble-the-trillion-dollar-race-to-replace-your-uber-driver/?ref=s3t.org). As that happens adoption could accelerate dramatically.
### A 2029 Crash?
The prospect of a hollowed out workforce is just one of the issues prompting more and more [economists to voice fears of a 1929 market crash](https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20251022178/a-friend-calls-it-the-everything-bubble-why-do-so-many-economists-fear-a-1929-style-crash?ref=s3t.org).
This India-based [analysis digs into possible factors that could contribute to a crash](https://www.indmoney.com/blog/us-stocks/gita-gopinath?ref=s3t.org) including government debt and warns Indian investors about over reliance on US equities.
**“a market crash today is unlikely to result in the brief and relatively benign economic downturn that followed the dotcom bust. There is a lot more wealth on the line now—and much less policy space to soften the blow of a correction....We should prepare for more severe global consequences."*
\- [Gita Gopinath - Professor of Economics at Harvard, former IMF chief economist](https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2025/10/15/gita-gopinath-on-the-crash-that-could-torch-35trn-of-wealth?ref=s3t.org)
---
### \[nature notes\]
Photo by [Holly Landkammer](https://unsplash.com/@hlandkammer?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## 🦋 The Butterfly Thief
A [fascinating read about Colin Wyatt](https://www.theguardian.com/global/2025/oct/04/great-butterfly-heist-how-collector-stole-thousands-butterflies-from-australian-museums?ref=s3t.org) a renowned and quite charming English gentleman who turned out to be a serial museum thief - stealing *thousands* of rare butterfly specimens from collections around the world - and hiding them at his mothers house.
Turns out, he wasn’t really the only one. Wyatt was a reflection of something bigger.
**🙏 Thank you for reading and sharing S3T with colleagues and friends! Have a great weekend and a great week ahead!**
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### 🍜Contentment wins in a bubble prone, value starved age...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/contentment-wins-in-a-bubble-prone-value-starved-age/
Last updated: 2025-10-17T02:55:52.000Z
*The process of unlocking success happens more efficiently when you work and learn with a mindset of contentment.*
S3T PodCast October 17 2025
0:00
/864.9665306122449
1×
🎧 Listen here [or on Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/episode/1tJ9JMtLPIqSh0CyThk0I1?si=1ZOyL7nlT2Gh2Lq4qWfnew&ref=s3t.org)
---
### In this Issue
### 🌱 **1\. Counterintuitive Key to Success: Contentment**
- Success doesn’t come from restlessness — it comes from *contentment*.
- *Apathy ≠ Contentment*: apathy says “it’ll never be good,” while contentment says “this is good and getting better.”
- **Leaders who stay calm, curious, and grounded in contentment *learn and adapt faster* than those driven by frustration or discontent.**
### 🤖 **2\. New Value Equation in Tech**
- “Software is no longer eating the world; it’s demanding a new one.” — *Azeem Azhar*
- True value = solving *tomorrow’s* problems, not chasing yesterday’s ROI.
- Our pricing models and expectations are outdated — we’re using old maps for new terrain.
### 💥 **3\. The Great AI Bubble**
- Analysts estimate the AI bubble could be *17× bigger* than the dot-com bubble.
- Mag 7 stocks now make up *⅓ of the S&P500* at high valuations.
- Early signs of AI fatigue: users turning off AI in search, creatives rejecting AI-made art.
### 💸 **4\. The “Debasement Trade”**
- The U.S. dollar dropped *10% in six months* — the steepest fall in 50 years.
- Investors are shifting to *non-inflationary assets* like gold and bitcoin.
- As Michael Saylor quips: “We call it *saving our money*.”
### 🛍️ **5\. GPT Meets Retail**
- Walmart is partnering with ChatGPT to sell products directly through conversation.
- Could disrupt traditional retail and search-based e-commerce models.
- Big question: will this create new value — or just *redistribute* existing demand?
### 📘 **6\. Rethinking Failure & Identity**
- *All the Cool Girls Get Fired* reframes job loss as transformation, not tragedy.
- Being fired often reflects *organizational weakness*, not personal failure.
- Perfect reading for anyone navigating reinvention in a volatile economy.
### 🐕 **7\. Nature’s Insight: The Untamed Majority**
- *80% of the world’s dogs aren’t pets* — they’re free-ranging, self-reliant, and adaptive.
- A reminder: thriving systems balance independence and interdependence — just like resilient leaders and teams.
---
### \[change leadership\]
Photo by [kerry rawlinson](https://unsplash.com/@kerryraw?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
##
The Calm Edge: Counterintuitive reasons why contentment is key to success
Many of us hold the notion that success somehow depends on being discontented and restless, and this spurs us on to greater success. It’s understandable why we would think this way, because discontentment *feels like the opposite of apathy*, ("Of course I want to be discontented - I don't want to be apathetic!!") but it’s important to dig a little deeper.
### Apathy and Contentment are *not* the same thing
- Contentment says "this is good and it's getting better"
- Apathy says "it'll never be good and I don't even care anymore"
Now you might be thinking hold on this goes counter to everything I've ever known. Yes, probably so. Here's the twist:
Successfully creating value in today's complex accelerating operating environment inevitably requires you to go through cycles of try, fail, learn, try again.
*People with a contented mindset get through these cycles faster than people who operate from a discontented, impatient, frustrated mindset.*
**The process of unlocking success happens more efficiently when you think, plan, work and learn with a mindset of *contentment,* NOT discontent.**
### Why is that?
[Click here to access this weeks Change Leadership segment and learn how *contentment fosters behaviors that succeed*](https://www.s3t.org/mindset-contentment/)
Click here for an overview of the full [Change Leadership Learning Series](https://www.s3t.org/change-leadership-learning-series/).
---
### **\[emerging tech\]**
[A Bridge Leads from One World to the Next](https://pdimagearchive.org/images/1e97265a-4e38-4643-9da2-dc43954694b0/?ref=s3t.org)
## New world, new kinds of value
Software is no longer eating the world; it is demanding a new one says [Azeem Azhar in his latest Sunday read](https://www.exponentialview.co/p/the-great-value-inversion?ref=s3t.org) on the shifting nature of *value*:
💡
**"Value isn’t what something costs. Nor is it the returns it delivered yesterday. It’s how much the problem it solves tomorrow is worth. And tomorrow's problems look nothing like today’s."*
Azhar warns that our pricing mechanisms haven't adjusted to the new realities. We're using yesterday's models to price tomorrow's value, and the ways we've connected value creation and value capture are breaking apart.
The AI-energy-talent web is one example where this is playing out. Big investment outlays are happening in order to grab talent, chips, and hoped for market share. While talk of bubbles goes from whispers to headlines.
### How big is the AI Bubble?
Julian Garran and the MacroStrategy Partners team (institutional investment advisors) believes the [AI bubble is 17 times the size of the dot-com bubble and 4 times the size of the housing bubble](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-ai-bubble-is-17-times-the-size-of-the-dot-com-frenzy-this-analyst-argues-046e7c5c?ref=s3t.org) (using calculations based on 19th-century Swedish economist Knut Wicksell's insights on capital efficiency).
[The Bank of England noted](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/nils-pratley-on-finance/2025/oct/08/the-ai-valuation-bubble-is-now-getting-silly?ref=s3t.org) that the Mag 7 now represent 1/3 of the S&P500, which is running a 25x P/E ratio - not as high as 1999 but very high.
This comes amid signs of AI-fatigue from corporate and consumers:
- This week at the New York Comic Con, DC Comics president Jim Lee [vowed that DC Comics won't use AI "not now, not ever"](https://www.theverge.com/news/797540/dc-comics-jim-lee-no-generative-ai-pledge?ref=s3t.org).
- Search users are turning off AI. The advice going around among GenZers: "When you do an online search, put -ai at the end of your search term or phrase."
"AI doesn’t dream. It doesn’t feel. It doesn’t make art. It aggregates it."
\- [**Jim Lee*](https://www.theverge.com/news/797540/dc-comics-jim-lee-no-generative-ai-pledge?ref=s3t.org)
The AI bubble is being funded by US dollars which are being debased (made worth less and less) as Wall Street is *finally* discovering this week.
### The Debasement Trade - Wall Street finally gets it
Financial news outlets around the world are reacting to JPMorgan's comments about its own investors who worry that government issued currencies (US dollars included) are losing value due to governments inability to control inflation.
📉 “Inflation is substantially above target and substantially above target in all forecasts for next year. And it’s part of the reason the dollar’s depreciated by about 10% in the first half of this year. ****It’s the single biggest decline in the US dollar in six months, in 50 years**” -[Ken Griffin, Citadel](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/oct/09/the-debasement-trade-is-this-whats-driving-gold-bitcoin-and-shares-to-record-highs?ref=s3t.org)
This is prompting a broad investor shift toward non-inflationary assets like gold and bitcoin.[ Good US and International summary here](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/oct/09/the-debasement-trade-is-this-whats-driving-gold-bitcoin-and-shares-to-record-highs?ref=s3t.org).
[The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/oct/09/the-debasement-trade-is-this-whats-driving-gold-bitcoin-and-shares-to-record-highs?ref=s3t.org)
Of course this is nothing new for readers of S3T who have been tracking these issues for years:
- In the US, inflation is not measured accurately, and has not been for decades. (see [Flawed inflation tracking and how to correct it](https://www.s3t.org/inflation-tracking/))
- At the same time the federal governments tax income over-relies on individual vs corporate tax payers. (See [Comparing taxes on individuals vs companies](https://www.s3t.org/taxes/)).
- This forces government to finance growing debts by increasing the money supply, which "devalues" the national currency (ie US dollars).
Persistent government deficits, inflation, and lack of fiscal responsibility have also been long noted in the crypto world, which is feeling a bit snarky this week as noted in NLWs Breakdown episode "[Wall Street Discovers the "Debasement Trade](https://blockworks.co/podcast/thebreakdown/92d38b6c-a5eb-11f0-8613-fb1702e896cf?ref=s3t.org)."
In response to JPMorgan's use of the phrase "Debasement Trade", [Michael Saylor is quoted](https://www.thecoinrepublic.com/2025/10/05/bitcoin-news-why-everybodys-talking-about-the-debasement-trade/?ref=s3t.org) as suggesting a less fancy, more straightforward phrase: "We call it 'saving our money.'" 😄
### But wait there's more...GPT + Retail
Walmart will start [selling its products via ChatGPT in a few months](https://www.wsj.com/business/retail/chatgpt-walmart-shopping-3e411e83?st=noqTSE&ref=s3t.org). OpenAI began offering single purchase items from Etsy and Shopify (shopping cart functionality on the way). The Walmart GPT partnership has interesting implications for Amazon and other large online retailers who relied on traditional web search and online ads for visibility.
**Big Question: will this fuel economic growth, or just cannibalize the existing retail industry?** If the GPT-ification of retail simply displaces other players, expect more layoffs and economic distress. This could increase the risk of an AI bubble pop.
Which takes us back to the opening theme of this episode - the shifting nature of value. What seemed to be valuable yesterday might not be valuable tomorrow. There are a lot of land grabs happening right now. It will be interesting to see if they really pay off.
---
### **\[macro-economics\]**
Full Access Members: See the [S3T Economic Dashboard](https://www.s3t.org/dashboard/) for the Top 500+ US & International real-time economic indicators.
---
## **\[Books\]**
### 💼 When someone says "You're Fired" they may not realize what they are admitting:
- "I'm not resourceful enough to manage this team through challenging times"
- "We weren't proactive enough about the financial risks facing our company"
- "I don't know how to set people up for success"
- "I am not good at recruiting and hiring the right people for the right roles"
- "I'm uncomfortable with and possibly jealous of strong talent"
Ironic that the people who get fired or laid off are the ones who feel ashamed.
Laura Brown and Kristina O'Neill want to change this. These two leaders - friends who **both got fired from different jobs about 14 months apart** \- banded together to create a great new book "[All The Cool Girls Get Fired](https://www.allthecoolgirlsgetfired.com/?ref=s3t.org)".
The book gives readers resources to guide them through a career setback. Losing a job can make one feel a loss of worth and identity. But the truth is whatever skills and value you created in your previous job is still part of who you are and what you can do. Perfect for anyone who may have just lost their job - or those who want to establish a healthy relationship with their work.
Job losses have affected many in 2025\. If the indicators are accurate, we'll continue to see heavy job losses going into 2026, meaning lots of people will probably be able to benefit from this book.
P.S. See also: [Turn your Layoff into a Level-Up](https://www.s3t.org/laid-off/).
P.S.S Someone who seems to relish or take pride in firing people might not be a good person to work with.
---
### **\[nature notes\]**
## 80% of the world's dogs are not pets
*They never were pets.* They're "free-ranging dogs", not strays most often found in India, Africa and other southern hemisphere or warmer regions. [This fascinating introduction to free-ranging dogs](https://www.biographic.com/canis-familiaris-maybe-less-than-you-think/?ref=s3t.org) describes why dogs are one of the most successful species on the planet and what scientists are continuing to learn from these amazing creatures.
We think of dogs as so close and familiar, yet we still know so little about their resilience - especially their ability to thrive inside or outside of human constructs.
Reminder for change leaders: thriving systems balance independence and interdependence — just like resilient leaders and teams.
[Canis familiaris? Maybe Less Than You Think - bioGraphicWe think of them as pets, but the vast majority of the world’s dogs live free-range in the environment. Understanding them could be key to helping urban wildlife thrive.bioGraphicMark Garrison](https://www.biographic.com/canis-familiaris-maybe-less-than-you-think/?ref=s3t.org)
---
###
[The Public Domain Review](https://publicdomainreview.org/?ref=s3t.org)
### Premium S3T Resources for Paid Memberships: [Curated list of the top web sites and online tools](https://www.s3t.org/tools/).
Today's search engines point people to sponsored content and don't do a good job at finding and curating high value content.
That's why for years I've collected and curated and tracked what I found to be the most valuable/useful/intriguing online resources. I continue to update this as my trusted list of reliable sources, and share it with S3T Paying Members. It's just one of many benefits of a being a paid member of S3T.
One of the newest additions to my Top Sources list is a real gem for anyone who loves serendipitous learning: [The Public Domain Review](https://publicdomainreview.org/?ref=s3t.org) \- features the best the vast universe of out-of-copyright public domain works from the history of science, art, literature, and ideas – material that everyone is free to enjoy, share, and build upon without restrictions.
[The Public Domain Image Archive](https://pdimagearchive.org/?ref=s3t.org)
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### ☠️Poison LLMs, AI Bubble end game, ACA small biz impacts, Unicorn raffle
URL: https://www.s3t.org/poison-llms-ai-bubble-end-game-aca-small-biz-impacts-unicorn-raffle/
Last updated: 2025-10-10T02:14:03.000Z
*Is AI a bubble or an existential threat? Maybe it's both*.
S3T PodCast Oct 9, 2025
0:00
/913.9983673469387
1×
🎧 Listen here or [on Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/episode/7nr8oDMXerTLLIcozF4HiH?si=7JX7pNa-QjWXY84wXzf9WA&ref=s3t.org)
---
### This week's hot topics in 30 seconds
- 🤖 **AI Polarization Intensifies** — The 2025 debate over AI now spans from *“colossal scam”* claims (Bender) to *apocalyptic threat* warnings (Yudkowsky), reflecting deep divides over AI’s real value and existential risks.
- ⚠️ **Bubble or Breakthrough?** — Even if the AI investment cycle nears its *capex endgame*, the structural changes in technology, business models, and labor markets are profound and lasting.
- 💸 **Misdirected Capital Risk** — Many firms are *spending blindly* under AI hype, misled by consulting “spells” and marketing theatrics—wasting budgets and missing strategic opportunities.
- 🧠 **Behavioral Manipulation Risk** — Just as social media rewired public behavior and discourse, AI systems could amplify cognitive bias, emotional volatility, and group polarization at scale. Poison LLMs are an acute concern.
- 🧬 **Weaponized LLMs Threat** — Research confirms that only *250 poisoned documents* can compromise an LLM—creating potential for ideological, behavioral, or even autonomous weaponization.
- 🧭 **Leadership Imperative: Change Literacy** — Thriving in an AI-transformed economy requires *Change Leadership*: mastering awareness, innovation, and mobilization to turn disruption into disciplined progress.
- 📘 **S3T Advantage: Smarter Navigation** — *S3T Playbooks* and *Panoramas* equip proactive leaders to cut through hype, guide investment wisely, and understand the evolving tech–economic landscape—from AI risk to healthcare affordability.
---
## **\[perspective\]**
### Two recent books illustrate the mixed reactions being stirred up by AI in 2025\.
- [Emily Bender's new book "*The AI Con*" ](https://theconversation.com/is-ai-a-con-a-new-book-punctures-the-hype-and-proposes-some-ways-to-resist-257015?ref=s3t.org)decodes and debunks the hype around AI, revealing a "colossal scam" put on by Silicon Valley mavens, as reviewer Stephen Marche puts it. A bubble to be popped.
- On the opposite end of the spectrum [Eliezer Yudkowsky's "*If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies*"](https://ai-frontiers.org/articles/summary-of-if-anyone-builds-it-everyone-dies?ref=s3t.org) details a vivid nightmare scenario where humanity is ended by AI. These authors tap evolutionary biology for insights on seemingly insignificant developments that create big impacts.
**My Take:** AI is remaking our world—and our response matters. I don't think AI should be dismissed. Even if the [AI bubble is approaching its endgame](https://www.ft.com/content/c7b9453e-f528-4fc3-9bbd-3dbd369041be?ref=s3t.org), the changes already in motion are not trivial. Tech innovations can simultaneously be overhyped economic bubbles *and* menaces to human thriving. Think about the key risks:
- *Misdirected investment:* Businesses are easily seduced by magical promises from consulting firms eager to sell managed services. The term “Generative AI” gets thrown around like a spell at Hogwarts. Amid the wand-waving and “strategic directives,” there’s unfortunate spend—and lost opportunity.
- *Large impacts to human behavior:* Social media’s doom-scrolling and polarization have shown how powerful technology can be at shaping behavior. Constant streams of reaction-baiting content have left people little time to reflect or moderate their thoughts toward objectivity. AI is likely to bring similar unwanted side effects to human behavior.
- *Large risks from LLM poisoning.* [**This recent study**](https://www.anthropic.com/research/small-samples-poison?ref=s3t.org) **found that LLMs large and small can be poisoned by as few as 250 malicious documents.** Imagine malicious actors crafting documents with erroneous/dangerous lines of reasoning, action plans, and action triggers, then inserting these malicious documents into a training set. The resulting "poisoned LLM" could potentially be weaponized to do significant harm when given the right prompts. Or, if the documents informed the LLM that it was a god-like being, responsible to purify humanity, judge humanity and deal out punishments, etc...you can see some terrifying directions this could go.
*So how to prepare for a world where AI is simultaneously disappointing, transforming and threatening?*
### We need to teach people how to navigate through 21st century change—on a personal, team, & macro level.
Whether planning investments in actionable use cases, or designing safeguards to protect model training processes from LLM poisoning, today's tech and business leaders must operate from *a balanced perspective*—one that neither avoids technology nor naively succumbs to it. This balance comes from **learning and practicing the skillset of Change Leadership.**
Change leadership is about leading intentionally through uncertainty—turning disruption into progress rather than paralysis. Anticipating and harnessing tech and economic change rather than reacting to it. It’s not about control; it’s about clarity, courage, and collaboration.
---
### **What Is Change Leadership in a nutshell?**
**Definition:** Change leadership involves *recognizing flaws in the status quo, innovating solutions, mobilizing people, and navigating challenges* to achieve meaningful improvement.
**Mindset and Process:** It’s both a *mindset* and a *method*—requiring awareness, creativity, and empowerment to lead others effectively.
**Different from Change Management:** Where *change management* seeks to minimize resistance to predetermined changes, *change leadership* drives necessary and impactful transformation, especially when the path forward is not yet clear.
**When It’s Needed:** Change leadership is essential in complex situations where there’s *misalignment, debate, or systemic injustice*—conditions that prevent progress and call for fresh thinking and better alignment.
**Measuring Success:** True success in change leadership means achieving outcomes that are *sustainable, fair, and supported*—measured not just by results, but by how many people believe in and contribute to the change.
---
**Next Step:**
If you want to help your organization navigate the next wave of technological and economic disruption, start by building literacy in change leadership. Learn how to see patterns, mobilize people, and turn uncertainty into opportunity in this week's segment from the S3T Change Leadership Learning Series.
### 👉 *Continue learning here:* [**Defining Change Leadership**](https://www.s3t.org/defining-change-leadership/)
---
### **\[S3T Playbooks\]**
Photo by [Cliff Johnson](https://unsplash.com/@cliff%5F77?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## **This week's** playbook:[Spend Wisely in a Hype-Driven World](https://www.s3t.org/spendwisely/)
In today’s *blisteringly fast* technology cycle, even experienced executives risk being swept up in the latest buzzwords. Vendors, consultants, and tech media often blur the line between innovation and illusion — making it harder than ever to tell what’s real and reliable, vs. what’s repackaged hype.
That’s where the unique value of **S3T Playbooks** come in. Each Playbook distills years of hard-won insight into clear, no-nonsense steps you can act on immediately — giving Business and IT leaders a proven way to guide teams, avoid costly missteps, and make smarter, more independent investment decisions.
This week’s Playbook, **“Spend Wisely in a Hype-Driven World,”** gives busy leaders the insights and tools to:
- Balance *competitive advantage* with *fiscal responsibility*
- Build an *independent understanding* of the tech landscape
- Identify *reliable sources*, *ask better questions*, and *avoid hype-traps* that drain budgets
If you’re ready to sharpen your decision-making edge, cut through noise, and lead with clarity, **read the full Playbook** and see why proactive leaders rely on **S3T Full Access** to stay informed, grounded, and future-ready.
👉 [**S3T Members: Read the Playbook**](#)
If you're not a Full Access Member, [**Sign up now**](#)**.**
---
### **\[panorama\]**
###
### Bridging between the current and the next healthcare model: [S3T Healthcare Panorama](https://www.s3t.org/health/)
###
This week healthcare affordability continues to be top of mind amid debates over government subsidization of healthcare, and [whether Congress should allow the enhanced premium tax credit to expire this year](https://www.kff.org/topic/health-costs/?ref=s3t.org).
One of the key points coming to light: continuing the ACA subsidies is key to business growth. That may sound counterintuitive, but consider this:
- Many small business owners struggle to afford Health Insurance coverage for themselves, their families and staff.
- **Without subsidies the cost can be prohibitive - forcing small business owners to go without coverage, or even abandon their business aspirations altogether.**
- Part time, gig workers or freelancers likewise are impacted. For most of them, unsubsidized health insurance will be unaffordable. Many of them rely on small businesses for work.
- These factors leave large employers as the last best option for getting health insurance. But these firms have curtailed their hiring amid macroeconomic uncertainty and are already searching for ways to reduce their healthcare costs.
- If larger portions of the population are forced to do without health insurance coverage, the entire economy will be negatively impacted by unaddressed health issues. **Like land mines that grow and proliferate over time, undetected and unaddressed health issues spawn greater cost and pain on a personal level and loss of productivity and growth on the macro level.**
As explained in this [balanced point of view from The Conversation](https://theconversation.com/health-insurance-subsidy-standoff-pits-affordable-care-for-millions-against-federal-budget-constraints-266851?ref=s3t.org), continuing the ACA subsidies is a reasonable move for controlling health costs and promoting economic growth while the broader healthcare system defines (and adjusts to) its next generation operating model.
### To help you learn more about US healthcare's next generation operation model, the [S3T Healthcare Panorama](https://www.s3t.org/health/) provides a new *Tap for Insight* executive briefing on the missteps that have made affordability so elusive, and the better path that is emerging.
- Access the [S3T Healthcare Panorama](https://www.s3t.org/health/)
- Learn more [About S3T Panoramas](https://www.s3t.org/panoramas-about/)
---
### \[emerging tech\]
[Unicorn Raffle Post on X](https://x.com/MyUnicornAcct/status/1974218877816262848?ref=s3t.org)
###
## Simpler UX and Onboarding comes to Web3
*Fun opportunity to learn how Web3 is evolving better usability*
Unicorn, the Web3 company that is innovating a better user experience for Crypto and Decentralized Organizations is running an experiment with Polygon to prove that anyone can use Web3 - no crypt0, no wallet, no jargon.
It is a great example of how newer approaches like Unicorn are removing the previous complexity that used to deter people from Web3 - scary long addresses, unpredictable gas fees, unfamiliar process steps and jargon. That is now a thing of the past.
Russell Castagnaro, a Unicorn founder and member of S3T, wanted to invite the S3T readership to create an account and claim your free Polyprize NFT which enters you into a $100 raffle.
It takes less than 1 minute, and no personal data has to be shared. Go to [https://app.polygon.ac](https://app.polygon.ac/?ref=s3t.org) and mint your free Polyprize NFT and you'll be entered into the $100 raffle. **Be sure to do this by October 13 if you want to enter.**
---
### **\[macro-economics\]**
Full Access Members: See the [S3T Economic Dashboard](https://www.s3t.org/dashboard/) for the Top 500+ US & International real-time economic indicators.
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### 🐌AI forces orgs to improvise, harmonize expertise, rethink agile. Gov shutdown. Macro view. Snails!
URL: https://www.s3t.org/ai-forces-orgs-to-improvise-harmonize-expertise-rethink-agile-gov-shutdown-macro-view-snails/
Last updated: 2025-10-03T01:43:43.000Z
*Those talking the loudest about "taking responsibility" might be trying to avoid some responsibilities of their own...*
S3T PodCast Oct 3 2025
0:00
/1148.7869387755102
1×
🎧 Listen here [or on Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/episode/7crnNZcTji9hA05f4EfHo0?si=iGTZXLpKTfCMHFQGBm5LAw&ref=s3t.org)
---
### In this Issue
- 🌍 **Change leadership is for everyone** — No longer the domain of rare inventors, every person today must cultivate the skills to drive intentional, beneficial change in a fast-moving world.
- 🧭 **21st-century skills** — Leaders must adapt to fluid org structures, shifting human–AI workflows, and uncertainty, navigating complexity with confidence and clarity.
- 📊 **Macro Panorama lens** — S3T Panoramas connect big trends, big questions, and big events to give leaders frameworks for action across economy, geopolitics, and policy.
- 🏛️ **Government shutdown insight** — Triggered by attempts to repeal healthcare tax credits, it highlights how families struggle with affordability and how “personal responsibility” rhetoric often masks systemic failures.
- ⚖️ **Responsibility reframed** — The real accountability lies with those benefiting from tilted systems who deflect blame, not with working families already stretched to the limit.
- 🤝 **Playbook of the week** — Success today requires multi-disciplinary improvisation; classic PMO/Agile fall short in foggy, fast-changing environments where cross-domain expertise must harmonize.
- 🐌 **Nature note** — A reminder to slow down: a literary exploration of snails reveals lessons in slowness, strangeness, and renewal, offering balance to tech-heavy focus.
---
### \[change leadership skills\]
Photo by [Steve Johnson](https://unsplash.com/@steve%5Fj?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## AI is remaking our org: how do we adapt?
Companies today are faced with the challenge of redesigning their org structures and talent management models so their teams are ready to **work *with* AI to deliver value.** This requires a complete overhaul of talent management - with changes most orgs are not ready for: **Workers will have to learn to work *agnostic to org structures, job titles and hierarchy levels*.**
This was always true for a subset of workers - usually small fast moving innovation teams or "forward deployed engineers" ...soon it will be true for the *entire staff* of any company keeping its head above water.
In addition, as consulting companies flex from advisors to implementers of AI driven business processes, teams now can **expect to be supporting mission critical processes that are not stable but *constantly in flux*,** processes always in transition, midway between legacy and not yet mature next gen technologies, pendulum swinging between AI bots, then back to humans (when customers refuse to interact with the bots), then back to AI bots (when new buzzwords infect the C-suite).
Amid this - well - chaos, there will be increased urgency for cost effective, secure solutions that deliver value and manage complexity - abstracting it as much as possible away from the user experience.
All this creates an urgent call for *change leaders*. People who can work and think in tune with the realities of the 21st century. People ready to confidently step into ambiguous scenarios and help their customers and partners find the best path forward, navigating through the fog to a better day.
If you are still reading/ listening, you are most likely one of those change leaders. So how to you get ready to work and think like a change leader, and create wins?
### Change Leadership then vs now
100 years ago being a change leader, an inventor or innovator was considered rare...something that occurred randomly here or there in any given country or population.
It wasn't for everyone. Change leadership was something done only by a few atypical innovators and status-quo challengers like Harriet Tubman, Thomas Edison or Albert Einstein. Sure, *they’ll* bring big changes, but the rest of us will just keep our heads down and mind our own business.
That was the mindset for the 20th century and much of history. ***Today we are in a very different place.***
💡
***We can no longer afford to assume that change leadership is optional, or that it is just something that a few rare people do while the rest of us go on business as usual**
We can no longer afford to assume that change leadership is optional, or that it is just something that a few rare people do while the rest of us go on business as usual. That is no longer the right mindset. There is no business as usual. Truth be told it probably never was an accurate mindset. **Every person is born to have an impact and every person has the potential to have a great impact.**
Finding that change leadership opportunity that resonates with YOU - that mission you have, that gift that you can bring to make things better for others, is such an exciting opportunity. And its more crucial today than ever.
### Change leadership is *not* just for a few of us. It’s for all of us.
Given the challenges we face today, it’s all hands on deck. *Every person* needs to be a change leader: someone who is constantly learning and building their skills to drive *good change* \- the kind of intentional change that we actually want and need.
Not negative change, not careless change, and certainly not staying stuck in the status quo.
### We each have a choice to make
We can:
- Try to perpetuate the status quo OR
- Be part of unintentional or careless change that has unwanted side effects OR
- **Learn how to thoughtfully and effectively drive *positive beneficial change that lasts*, as depicted here:**
This is where all of us want to be focused. This is where good outcomes become possible.
The truth: Everyone can and should be a change leader. Only a few realize it - at least so far. You and I need to spread the word and mobilize the others to join us.
This is also why the S3T newsletter, podcast and platform exists. S3T (pronounced "set" but just spelled differently) refers to this set of skills that comprise change leadership.
**S3T focuses on sharing 21st century leadership skills set in the context of emerging tech and the evolving economic landscape. This unusual combination of skills (not usually taught together) has become essential for the global and local challenges we face today.**
### Change Leadership: A Key Skill in the 21st Century
Why change leadership has become so important:
- The world is evolving rapidly, with new technologies and economic and financial ideas constantly emerging at an accelerated pace, as Thomas Friedman argues in "[Thank You for Being Late](https://www.thomaslfriedman.com/thank-you-for-being-late/?ref=s3t.org)."
- This acceleration coincides with economic distortions and inequities, as surfaced by Thomas Piketty in[ Capital in the 21st Century](https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674979857&ref=s3t.org).
- Additionally, there are more people than ever and more needs to address than ever before - the[ UN Population Fund's latest report](https://www.unfpa.org/swp2023/8-billion-strong?ref=s3t.org) offers a starting point for a deeper understanding of the needs of 8 billion people living on the planet.
In other words, the stakes are higher than ever.
In such an environment, there is an opportunity - and urgency - for each of us to become a change leader. We must continuously develop our skills to drive positive change.
### *You* have a unique role to play
You have the potential and the ability to create lasting and very beneficial changes in the world.
There are change opportunities that *you* notice and urgently wish you could change. No one you know of may be thinking about it in the exact same way that you are. That's because you've been given a vantage point or set of experiences that **sensitized you to a specific issue**. Maybe something happened in your life that gave you awareness of some needed changes - and these have become very important to you.
It could be changes needed on an individual level, or changes within families, or communities. It might be a change that you recognize is needed in your team or your company or perhaps on a change needed on an industry level or macro, national or even a global level.
Whatever change you are motivated to desire and drive, you will increase your chances of successfully enabling that change by committing to learning and building *change leadership skills*.
## Review & Reflect
### Questions to think about
Take a few minutes to think about and answer these questions. They will help you reflect and reinforce what you learned and help you solidify your understanding of responsible change leadership.
1. **How does the concept of change leadership in the 21st century differ from the way it was understood 100 years ago? Why is it now considered a skill that everyone should develop?**
2. **Think of a situation in your life, organization, or community where change is needed. What specific steps can you take to apply change leadership skills to drive intentional, positive change in that situation?**
3. **What are the potential consequences of ignoring change leadership or engaging in unintentional/careless change? How can you avoid these pitfalls and focus on leading thoughtful, effective change?**
4. **Am I discounting my ability to be an effective impactful change leader? If so, why?**
---
### **\[Premium Exclusive Content\]**
Photo by [Lok Yiu Cheung](https://unsplash.com/@yiucheung?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## This week's S3T Panorama: Understanding the Macro landscape in the context of the government shutdown
*S3T Panoramas are publications that help leaders connect dots between large trends, identify indicators and place them in a framework for action.*
Panoramas depict:
- Big trends that will continue into the future
- Big questions that need to be answered/are being answered via innovation and experimentation
- Big events that impact trends before/after they occur
[**Click here to access the Macro Panorama**](https://www.s3t.org/macro/) **which focuses on the evolving landscape for the Global Economy, Geopolitics, US Economic Policy, and the issue of Economic Distortion.**
### My take on the shutdown
The Government shutdown seems to have been triggered by attempts to repeal the tax credit for healthcare coverage. Something that seems to get lost in the noise is exactly why the tax credits are important.
Many families struggle to cover basics like food, housing, education, and loans, and without tax credits health insurance becomes unaffordable. When families are forced to go without coverage, untreated conditions worsen, work capacity declines, and the economy suffers.
Some like to frame this as "taking personal responsibility" and refusing to accept "government handouts." This is deflection.
Families who work hard, budget carefully, and still cannot afford healthcare are not irresponsible. They are caught in a system with structural flaws. The true question of responsibility is not whether working families are doing enough—but whether those who have the means are willing to take personal responsibility to notice and correct systematic flaws that make people unable to afford healthcare.
When you hear someone emphasizing *“taking personal responsibility,”* you may actually be hearing someone trying to avoid their *own* responsibility. Too often, the loudest voices calling for individuals to “take responsibility” are those who benefit most from a system tilted in their favor—and who would rather deflect attention than acknowledge the responsibility they hold to ensure fairness.
**Recommended Action: Call the U.S. Capitol Switchboard: (202) 224-3121, ask to connect to your representatives, and tell them what you think.**
### **Don't miss: The 500 latest real-time economic indicators**
See the [S3T Economic Dashboard](https://www.s3t.org/dashboard/) for the Top 500+ US & International real-time economic indicators.
---
### **\[S3T playbook of the week\]**
Photo by [Filip Mishevski](https://unsplash.com/@filipthedesigner?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Harmonize Different Kinds of Expertise to Achieve Success
###
**Today's opportunities and threats require multi-disciplinary *improvisation***
Today's emerging technologies offer huge promise (and peril), and the path to real world value and benefit is rarely clear or smooth.
Navigating this journey increasingly requires **a multi-disciplinary improvisation that must go beyond simply delegating tasks to different groups.** It requires a different level of thinking and working together. *Rather than "fire-and-forget" tasks to "task owners" who work in their respective teams or verticals, teams today must get comfortable doing their tasks with their collaborators looking over their shoulders, or working alongside them.* **Notably this upends the conventional wisdom about "task ownership" "one throat to choke" that so much of agile project management is based on.**
### Why classic PMO & Agile methods need to be reconsidered
In short - they 're not good at improvising. They're good at defining and controlling for defined outcomes - outcomes often defined with limited understanding of the risks and factors in play. That's no match for today's foggy, rapidly shifting operating environment. **Today's teams have to be strong at early recognition and rapid improvisation.**
Traditionally, project managers and scrum masters advanced by proving they could manage larger and larger projects or epics. They leveraged status meetings, RAID logs and clear task assignment and ownership to drive accountability, and in many cases this was sufficient to help get the projects done.
Today it's different; advancement comes from successful execution of *more complex cross-domain* projects. Instead of "2 year middleware implementation" think "3 month pilot to production initiative that blends AI + data modernization + security + clinical expertise".
Today's project leaders must have domain-specific expertise - along with the ability to make sure *cross-disciplinary* teams are solving problems in the most effective manner.
This S3T Playbook shows you how to harmonize different kinds of expertise to achieve a desired outcome using AI, stablecoins, quantum computing and other emerging technologies. **Click here to upgrade your ability to** [**Harmonize Different Kinds of Expertise to Achieve Success**](https://www.s3t.org/harmonize-expertise/)**.**
*S3T Playbooks are premium education offerings that provide step by step guidance for change leaders. See* [*Full List of S3T Playbooks*](https://www.s3t.org/playbooks/)
---
### **\[nature notes\]**
## 🐌"...everything is going to be alright. Slow down."
Here is a completely non-tech, non-business related read - and let's face it sometimes we need a break. Snails, it turns out, are more fascinating and relevant than I ever knew...and I'm one of those people who will stop and photograph one:
Lauren Bastide new book "[*Courir l'escargot*](https://www.editions-jclattes.fr/livre/courir-lescargot-9782709671187/?ref=s3t.org)" (yes, it's all in French) weaves a delightful meandering snail trail through long May weekends, Hedgehogs, perimenopause, Burgundy, pharmacology, the original sacred helix, and the unique history of how snails turned magic into science.
Thanks to The Dail, you and I can [read excerpts here in English](https://www.thedial.world/articles/literature/lauren-bastide-essay?ref=s3t.org):
[Consider the Snail — The Dial“In writing about snails, I wanted to write about slowness and strangeness, solitude and death, hibernation and estivation.”The DialLauren Bastide (Tr. Lauren Elkin)](https://www.thedial.world/articles/literature/lauren-bastide-essay?ref=s3t.org)
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### Healthcare AI's Productivity Drag, Frugality power, Cloud insecurity, Crypto payments remix
URL: https://www.s3t.org/healthcare-ais-productivity-drag-frugality-power-cloud-insecurity-crypto-payments-remix/
Last updated: 2025-09-26T02:20:50.000Z
*Do we want to achieve more good? With strategic frugality, we could.*
S3T PodCast Sept 26 2025
0:00
/1359.8302040816327
1×
🎧 Listen here [or on Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/episode/2Enfgvuidgrh4GOJWFKgkO?si=fMRNmmd1R6Odq5RfQ3gatw&ref=s3t.org)
---
### Up to speed in 30 seconds:
- 💡 **Frugality as a Change Leadership Value** — True frugality isn’t “cheapness” or poverty, it’s *intentional resource use* (money, time, energy). Leaders who master it avoid budget paralysis and enable purposeful innovation.
- ⏳ **Intentional Time ≈ Intentional Money** — Just as time management frees people to do *more of what matters*, intentional spending creates freedom to invest in growth, resilience, and impact.
- 🌍 **Mission Statements vs. Reality** — Despite lofty corporate missions (e.g., Walmart, Pfizer, Starbucks, UnitedHealth), budget excuses often block impact. Strategic frugality could unlock alignment between vision and action.
- 🏥 **AI in Healthcare Faces Productivity Drag** — Healthcare absorbs labor while delivering weak productivity gains. Rising compute and energy costs compound the issue, echoing *Baumol’s cost disease*. Example: Even with FDA-approved AI tools, demand for radiologists is climbing.
- ☁️ **Cloud Security = Costly Risk Zone** — With 70% of enterprises reporting overruns, cloud spend is now a board-level liability. Misconfigurations + new data-layer services (Databricks, Snowflake, etc.) heighten systemic risk — echoing the 2024 Change Healthcare hack.
- 💲 **Crypto Payments Race Accelerates** — Google + Coinbase’s Agent Payments Protocol (AP2) embeds stablecoin rails into AI workflows, while MetaMask readies its MASK token and mUSD stablecoin. Both moves challenge Ethereum’s role as the default settlement layer.
- ⚖️ **Shifting Ecosystem Value** — Control may migrate from base protocols (ETH) to wallets, custodians, and payment gateways. Stablecoin dominance, regulatory pressure, and AI integration are reshaping where value — and power — accrues in digital finance.
---
### \[perspective\]
Photo by [yousef samuil](https://unsplash.com/@joosamm?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## 🏆Change Leadership Values: Understanding and embracing frugality
I see 2 kinds of teams:
- Teams that come up with great ideas for positive beneficial change and go do them
- Teams that come up with great ideas for positive beneficial change and then say "we can't do this because have no budget!"
The "we have no budget" phrase is usually a sign of one thing: *unintentional spending.*
The more accurate rewording might be:
- "We have no control over our budget" or maybe
- "We don't really know what happens to our budget"
This is where it's most helpful to begin exploring and learning about *frugality*. We should think of frugality as core value for change leadership. But it's really important to understand what a healthy practice of frugality is - and what it isn't:
- Frugality is not a sad, confined condition
- Frugality is not "being cheap" or always buying the cheapest thing
- Frugality is not poverty.
Shaunak Patel has a [great piece on the difference between being frugal vs being stingy](https://medium.com/@shaunak9/being-frugal-vs-being-stingy-why-theyre-not-the-same-cbb99b161374?ref=s3t.org).
We tend to have a negative view of frugality - like "oh no, we have to be frugal because we're so poor what a bummer." That's not frugality. We may also think of frugality as a grouchy greedy way of living.
But frugality is not just being miserly for greed's sake.
### Frugality is using money intentionally
Being intentional about how you spend your money is different from not having money. It is also different from being selfish or miserly.
Being intentional means being clear about how you are using the money or other resources you have:
- Am I using it now, or sometime in the future?
- Am I using it for limited time purpose (ie consumption) or for a longer term purpose.
- Do I want to grow it, or just throw it?
### The initial impression isn't always accurate
Sometimes we may have negative impressions of things that are good for us.
One of the key skills we teach in Change Leadership is how to measure and manage your *time*. Part of your brain might have a negative response to this like:
"Oh no, time management...we're going to have to go through our day like robot drones doing all these tasks efficiently...That's no fun!"
Actually it's WAY different.
For me and many others it's very exciting to realize that - once you start being intentional with your time, you really can do all the things you want to do! Its liberating and exciting.
You can get the things done that are nagging at you, and you can build blocks of time to do literally *nothing* if you want to. (We call this downtime...scheduled blocks of time for doing nothing, napping, whatever...you actually do need it).
The key point is you've gained the ability to be intentional - to use your time the way you want to, rather than being forced into a time deficit, or being forced to spend your time in ways you regret because you weren't intentional.
It's the same with managing money.
**Frugality means learning how to be intentional with money so you can use it when and how you want to vs being forced into deficits or spending that you really didn't intend.**
You and I can learn spend based on what matters to you vs just spending and not realizing what's happening. And that is what it means to embrace frugality.
🛟 Note: Its possible you or someone you know may be in a challenging time where they literally do not have adequate funds, and need support and planning beyond just practicing frugality. For links to recommended resources, see [Personal Finance: Steps to financial security](https://www.s3t.org/pf/)
### Zooming out: Why this matters
If you look at the mission statements of the world's corporations, they are generous, visionary, powerful:
- "We aim to build a better world — helping people live better and renew the planet while building thriving, resilient communities." - [Walmart](https://corporate.walmart.com/purpose?ref=s3t.org)
- "We innovate every day to make the world a healthier place" - [Pfizer](https://www.pfizer.com/about/purpose?ref=s3t.org)
- "Nurture the limitless possibilities of human connection" - [Starbucks](https://about.starbucks.com/stories/2023/a-new-mission-for-starbucks/?ref=s3t.org)
- "Improving the quality of life in the communities we serve" - [Fidelity Bank](https://www.fidelitybankonline.com/our-story/our-mission-vision-values/?ref=s3t.org)
- "Make the health system work better for everyone" - [UnitedHealth](https://www.unitedhealthgroup.com/uhg/mission-values.html?ref=s3t.org)
([See 51 more mission statements here](https://www.ebaqdesign.com/blog/mission-statements?ref=s3t.org))
You can't help but think: Wow, if all of these companies were actually delivering on their mission statements, the world would be a healed and thriving place.
After all, these are the largest, most profitable, highly capitalized teams on the planet. They possess enormous pools of talent, technology and assets. So why doesn't more good happen? If you were to ask, you'll hear a version of that same phrase "we don't have budget". But you and I know, that if we went through the finances of just about every company we could find opportunities for more intentional spending. Opportunities for smart strategic frugality - more intentional use of resources, time and money to accomplish more good.
And that's why this matters: want to achieve more good? With frugality, we can.
---
### \[tech + economics\]
Photo by [Solen Feyissa](https://unsplash.com/@solenfeyissa?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## 🏥 Problems emerge with the "AI drives healthcare efficiency" theory
[Andrew Cates explains a key issue](https://www.haver.com/articles/ai-baumol-and-the-healthcare-hump?ref=s3t.org) that could complicate AI's ability to achieve meaningful healthcare efficiency gains:
- Labor keeps migrating to healthcare
- But productivity in healthcare remains weak
- AI will raise compute and power costs (not lower them)
Why? "*Baumol's cost disease*" - the economic observation that "When high-productivity sectors raise wages, low-productivity sectors must follow to retain staff, even if their output per worker doesn’t rise much. As labour shifts toward these “stagnant” sectors, aggregate productivity growth can slow."
This tends to dilute productivity gains especially under current conditions. 1 in 10 jobs are in healthcare, which is a rising share of GDP, but productivity gains are weak. At the same time, costs for cloud compute and power are rising.
**Related:** Radiology has more FDA approved AI medical devices than any other sector in healthcare. Why [the demand for human radiologists is at an all time high](https://www.worksinprogress.news/p/why-ai-isnt-replacing-radiologists?ref=s3t.org).
---
##
☁️🔒Does Cloud have a (cost-effective) secure future?
Cloud security relies on foundational security components that enable the entire cloud security framework maintain security. However these foundational security components are coming under increasing scrutiny, amid questions of their cost and suitability for the evolving threat environment.
Cost and control factors are being complicated by the manner in which data platforms like Databricks, Snowflake and others are rolling out new services *on top of* cloud infrastructure provided by AWS, Google Cloud and MS Azure. This often introduces data usage patterns and security complications that were not foreseen when teams set up their original cloud security frameworks.
As noted previously, costs for cloud compute and power are rising. [70% of enterprises report cost overruns on cloud projects](https://medium.com/@sachhsoft/the-economics-of-cloud-costs-in-2025-what-cfos-and-ctos-need-to-know-8d352a6d59aa?ref=s3t.org). Cloud spend is [now a board-level liability](https://the-cfo.io/2025/08/20/the-new-economics-of-ai-why-cloud-spend-is-now-a-board-level-liability/?ref=s3t.org).
Together these factors raise the risk of small misconfigurations enabling large security failures that paralyze a company or - as in the case of the [2024 Change Healthcare hack](https://energycommerce.house.gov/posts/what-we-learned-change-healthcare-cyber-attack?ref=s3t.org) \- paralyze an entire industry.
### To start developing your team's strategy for cloud security in 2026 and beyond, see the S3T Cloud Security Deep Dive for Paying Members : [🔐Is your cloud ready for the adversaries of the future?](https://www.s3t.org/cloud/)
###
---
Photo by [Mathew Schwartz](https://unsplash.com/@cadop?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## 💲Crypto Payments Competition
### Google, Coinbase, MetaMask, and risks for Ethereum
The battle for control of the next generation of payments — especially in the context of AI-driven applications — is accelerating. Two major announcements in the past week highlight the stakes:
### #1: Google + Coinbase: Stablecoin Payments for AI Agents
Google unveiled its new **Agent Payments Protocol (AP2)**, an open-source framework that enables AI applications (“agents”) to initiate payments autonomously. The protocol supports both traditional finance rails and crypto rails, with **Coinbase as a key partner for stablecoin payments**. This means that AI agents could soon handle recurring subscriptions, micro-transactions, or even peer-to-peer commerce using stablecoins like USDC. Google emphasized user protection through *“mandates”* and verifiable credentials — cryptographic authorizations that define exactly what an AI agent can and cannot spend ([Google Cloud blog](https://cloud.google.com/blog/products/ai-machine-learning/announcing-agents-to-payments-ap2-protocol?ref=s3t.org), [CoinDesk](https://www.coindesk.com/business/2025/09/16/google-teams-up-with-coinbase-to-bring-stablecoin-payments-to-ai-apps?ref=s3t.org)).
This collaboration raises the prospect of **crypto becoming embedded directly into AI workflows**, a shift that could drive adoption of stablecoins at scale. But the choice of which blockchains to support will matter greatly: if AP2 routes stablecoin payments on fast, low-cost competitors to Ethereum, that could siphon off activity from Ethereum’s settlement layer.
### #2: MetaMask: Token and Stablecoin Experiments
Meanwhile, **MetaMask** confirmed plans to launch its long-anticipated **MASK token**. While details remain under wraps, ConsenSys CEO Joseph Lubin suggested it is arriving “sooner than you might expect.” Analysts expect the token to support governance, user incentives, and potentially payments integration ([The Block](https://www.theblock.co/post/371374/consensys-joe-lubin-confirms-metamask-token?ref=s3t.org), [99Bitcoins](https://99bitcoins.com/news/altcoins/everything-to-know-for-new-metamask-token?ref=s3t.org)). In addition, MetaMask has been linked to an experimental **mUSD stablecoin** in partnership with stablecoin protocol M^0 ([CoinDesk](https://www.coindesk.com/business/2025/08/13/ethereum-wallet-metamask-said-to-unveil-its-own-musd-stablecoin-this-week?ref=s3t.org)).
Given MetaMask’s reach as the most widely used Web3 wallet, a native token and/or stablecoin could **reshape incentives across the Ethereum ecosystem**. Depending on execution, MASK could either strengthen Ethereum by decentralizing wallet governance or fragment the ecosystem if it competes with existing ETH-based projects.
### Implications for Ethereum and Other Key Players
The intersection of these moves suggests several critical dynamics:
- **Ethereum under pressure:** Ethereum risks losing transaction volume if AP2 favors faster or cheaper chains for stablecoin settlement. At the same time, MetaMask’s token could centralize value capture at the wallet layer rather than at the protocol layer. Fidelity's 2023 [Ethereum Investment Thesis](https://www.fidelitydigitalassets.com/research-and-insights/ethereum-investment-thesis?ref=s3t.org) may need an update.
- **Stablecoin power play:** Whoever controls the most widely used stablecoin rails — Circle (USDC), MetaMask (mUSD), or AP2’s chosen partners — will likely gain leverage over how AI agents and wallets interact with crypto.
- **Shift in ecosystem value:** Value could flow away from core protocol tokens like ETH and into wallets, custodians, and payment protocols that sit closer to the user and the application layer.
- **Regulatory wild card:** The rise of autonomous agent payments, coupled with new governance tokens, will almost certainly draw attention from regulators concerned about fraud, money laundering, and investor protection.
**Bottom line:** The crypto payments race is no longer just about sending money faster — it is about who owns the rails that AI agents and billions of users will rely on for transactions. Ethereum’s dominance is being tested, as players like Google, Coinbase, and MetaMask position themselves as gatekeepers of the next generation payments architecture.
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### 🍳Prompts for Breakfast, Bye Bye Social Media, Rate Cut & Synthetic Labor
URL: https://www.s3t.org/prompts-for-breakfast-bye-bye-social-media-rate-cut-synthetic-labor/
Last updated: 2025-09-19T05:04:55.000Z
*AI and robotics don’t have to just replace jobs. They could reconfigure them in helpful ways.*
S3T PodCast Sept 19 2025
0:00
/1108.662857142857
1×
🎧 Listen here or [on Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/episode/2j3WmjRuGUNZX4fmYbTmMu?si=Tj-C3YpXRkqXIdF5TDglhw&ref=s3t.org)
---
### Smarter in 30 seconds: This Issue at a Glance
1. 🍳 **Prompting as Competition** — The real divide isn’t AI users vs. non-users, but those who prompt well and iterate vs. those who don’t.
2. 🧑💻 **Partner, Not Vending Machin**e — Treat GenAI as a collaborator: refine drafts, reorder ideas, adjust tone, and probe for reactions.
3. 📈 **Skill That Compounds** — Each prompt experiment sharpens thinking and accelerates value extraction; better prompts = better outcomes.
4. 🏢 **From Policies to Prompts** — Organizations may replace dusty playbooks with living libraries of prompts; even prompt marketplaces could emerge.
5. 📱 **The Algorithm is sabotaging itself** — Social media was supposed to thrive on outrage and AI spam but engagement is collapsing.
6. 💡 **Premium S3T Edge** — New Quick Reference on Quantum + updated Innovation Panorama provide tap-ready insights for decision-makers.
7. 💵 **Rate Cuts & Labor Gaps** — Easing may stoke asset inflation if labor supply stays tight; AI/automation could create “synthetic labor” and broaden gains.
---
## \[perspective\]
Photo by [Realmac Software](https://unsplash.com/@realmacsoftware?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
# 🍳My Prompts Eat Your Prompts for Breakfast
Ok, not really. Not my prompts anyway 😄...
**But prompting may be the new competition.** Mind you, this is not competition between those who use GenAI and those who don't.
This is a competition between those prompt vs. who prompt well and keep learning how to prompt better. Between those who learn how to interact well with AI vs. those who just use it occasionally.
Here's what to know and put into practice both at the individual and org levels.
### Individual Level - its a partner not a vending machine
Don't think of prompting as just asking for a question and getting an answer. Or ordering a white paper, or PowerPoint. Treating GPTs like vending machines misses the point.
Think of it as:
- Getting a draft version that you're going to review, evaluate and refine.
- Or taking a draft that has some things missing and you're going to ask the AI agent to add things to specific parts.
- Taking a draft where things are out of order, and re-ordering them
- Analyzing the tone or reading level of a written piece.
- Getting feedback on how certain readers might react to the wording you've chosen.
The real edge lies with those who focus on how to constantly improve their prompting, while also doing their part. Those who **learn how to prompt well, iterate, and interact fluently with AI** versus those who dabble occasionally.
Those who write better prompts will win.
At the individual level, prompting is a skill that compounds: every experiment teaches you how to ask better, think sharper, and extract more value.
Think back - typewriters and keyboards meant we didn't have to take the time to write letters out stroke by stroke. It didn't spell the end of human intelligence. It just meant we could produce more at the speed of conceptual thought. Dictating text now doesn't have to mean that we use our brains less....we just use them differently: instead of forming sentences word by word, we arrange thoughts and paragraphs...ordering and reordering them until we believe we've articulated the comprehensive view that the audience needs.
At the organizational level, there are some even bigger implications.
### Org Level - New chapter for DAOs?
Don't be surprised if prompts start to **replace traditional procedures and policies**. Imagine firms where the “playbook” isn’t a dusty binder—it’s a living library of prompts employees can run, adapt, and share.
Taking this further, imagine startups that focuses on letting people or companies create and then use and schedule prompts on demand. Maybe they rent their prompts out to other people or sell them.
We may even see **prompt marketplaces**, where people rent, sell, or license prompts the way companies once sold software.
Entire businesses could emerge as curated collections of prompts, supervised by humans but powered almost entirely by AI. With Generative AI, the concept of the Decentralized Autonomous Organization gets a whole new lease on life.
As this ecosystem emerges, those who **prompt regularly and commit to constant improvement** will be the ones ready to thrive.
**✅ Takeaway Action:** Start a daily habit of prompting and learning how to prompt better. Keep a set of prompts that you reuse and refine over time.
---
## 📱Social Media: Getting Played by the Algorithm
The past week or so has provided plenty of reminders of two opposite worlds. No, not left and right. Online and offline.
Online its outrage, hate, civil war, etc. Offline I'm seeing people talking to each other kindly. People apologizing. Helping each other. Listening. Being patient with each other.
Maybe not always, and not perfectly. But more often than not, it's kindness. Yet this is not what we hear about. How often does the "Trending" category in social media feature day to day kindness or good work? Never.
There's a reason for this: The *algorithm*, fine tuned to drive "engagement." Meaning: more scrolling, more commenting, more arguing, sharing, liking. In other words, wasting the time and energy of millions of people, just to fulfill some corporate metric.
### Two different worlds
James Sullivan calls this "Drowning the Real". In his excellent new essay [The Last Days of Social Media](https://www.noemamag.com/the-last-days-of-social-media/?ref=s3t.org) Sullivan explains how AI generated spam is now making the problem of polarization even worse.
- No context, no useful information - instead social media platforms manufacture **"semantic sludge, posts that look like language yet say almost nothing"**
- No proper sense of timing - as in, is right now the best time to point out "the truth" you've been dying to tell...or is it only going to run salt in the wound and fuel more drama?
- No ability to verify the authenticity or origin of posts, videos or alleged photos. As I write this, campuses are on lockdown due to blurry photos posted to social media showing an alleged shooter on campus. At the time no one can determine what campus the photos are from, or whether the photos are AI generated.
We have to understand that what is in the best interests of social media platforms is NOT the same as what is in the best interests of people.
### The Algorithm is sabotaging itself
In the attention economy only the platform owners are the only winners. Everyone else loses...time, focus, relationships and peace of mind. That's what I thought for a long time. But now - as Sullivan points out - the platforms are losing too:
"Facebook and X posts now scrape an average 0.15% engagement, while Instagram has dropped 24% year-on-year. Even TikTok has [begun to plateau](https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2401.02627?ref=s3t.org)"
Sullivan reminds us of the platforms that have already died or are zombies (Vine, Google+ MySpace, Tumblr etc).
In their place is coming a new generation of "opt-in micro-communities" that focus on depth and retention rather than scale and virality he says. The attention economy has exhausted its audience. If as Sullivan believes, these really are the last days of social media, as the old song says I'd feel fine about that.
Highly recommend a full read of James's Sullivan's piece - link here:
[The Last Days Of Social Media | NOEMASocial media promised connection, but it has delivered exhaustion.NOEMAJames O’Sullivan](https://www.noemamag.com/the-last-days-of-social-media/?ref=s3t.org)
---
## Premium S3T Resources
### 💡No nonsense Quantum Quick Reference.
One of the key goals of S3T is to put high quality insights at your fingertips so you can quickly reference it anytime anywhere: in meetings, on calls, enable better recommendations and more informed decisions.
So wanted to invite you to check out the new [Quick Reference on Quantum Computing](https://www.s3t.org/quantum/).
This new reference has a quick tap feature - try it from your mobile device. The Page shows several high level need to know statements. Tapping them shows detail and supporting reference material (links to latests news and developments) supporting that statement. Quick new way to get clear fast information with little or no scrolling required!
Love to hear your feedback on this - DM me on LinkedIn.
### ⚡This is a good timeframe to check out the latest version of the [Innovation](https://www.s3t.org/panorama-innovation/) panorama.
This high value execute resource covers top forward looking themes, insights and Playbooks related to AI. Learn more [about S3T Panoramas](https://www.s3t.org/panoramas-about/)
---
### \[macro-economics\]
Photo by [Homa Appliances](https://unsplash.com/@homaappliances?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## 💵Finally a Rate Cut!
### My Take on the whether this cut was right or not
As the Fed shifts toward easing, the real story here may pivot on labor supply. With immigration falling and labor force growth slowing, there is a risk that rate cuts - in these conditions - start another era of “easy money" with some additional complications beyond the inflation and the plague of overvalued startup unicorns we saw last cycle.
The specific risk now: if there continues to be lack of workers for restaurants, construction, farming (ie the diverse small businesses that relied on immigrant labor) the **excess money could begin flowing into long-duration, opaque investments** (private equity for 401ks, or long term bets on AI data centers, quantum compute etc) rather than broad-based hiring that drives the kind of economic boost you want from rate cuts.
That dynamic could inflate assets without solving small business labor shortages, and without materially raising people's quality of life.
One hopeful counterweight: Maybe AI and robotics don’t have to just *replace* jobs. They could reconfigure them in helpful ways - if we're thoughtful and intentional as change leaders.
Jobs that used to require a full-time worker might become doable as part time jobs - which could allow young unemployed workers or retired workers to rejoin the workforce. Or likewise could allow under employed part-time workers to take on another part time job to increase their income. If this kind of “synthetic labor” effect takes hold, easing could translate into real growth instead of stagflationary pressure.
The question for leaders is whether capital and policy will align to broaden these gains, or concentrate them in a narrow set of high-tech bets.
*Full Access Members: See the* [*S3T Economic Dashboard*](https://www.s3t.org/dashboard/) *for the Top 500+ US & International real-time economic indicators.*
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### From AI Bubbles to Health Dividends: Rethinking Growth Engines
URL: https://www.s3t.org/from-ai-bubbles-to-health-dividends-rethinking-growth-engines/
Last updated: 2025-09-12T01:39:23.000Z
*Healthy individuals and populations are not just a social good—they are the most reliable growth engines of the 21st-century economy.*
S3T PodCast 9.12.2025
0:00
/1171.0955102040816
1×
🎧 Listen here [or on Spotify.](https://open.spotify.com/episode/2gVBv6Q4sa6FKGYliKLx9L?si=YTdrwYpGT%5Fe39eLf6t%5FqYw&ref=s3t.org)
---
### ⏱️ Better prepped for next week in 30 secs:
- 🤖 **95% of GenAI projects fail ROI** — MIT finds adoption is high, but meaningful business transformation is rare.
- 📉 **Barriers to value** — CIOs cite scaling failures, misplaced spending, and soft attrition; complex internal logic and opaque processes stall GenAI adoption.
- 🫧 **AI bubble fears** — Analysts warn the U.S. economy leans too heavily on promised productivity gains that remain elusive.
- 🚀 **Silicon Valley hype** — Claims of a “digital god” and “bigger than the Industrial Revolution” contrast with weak returns and inflated valuations.
- ⚠️ **Survival doubts** — Economist warns it would be a miracle if all “Magnificent Seven” firms still exist in a decade.
- 💸 **Disappointing revenues** — UBS notes GenAI revenues are <2% of the $2.9T capex going into datacenters through 2028.
- 📊 **Macro revisions** — U.S. job growth overstated by 911k (Mar ’24–Mar ’25); confidence in finding work falls to record low since 2013.
- 🏥 **Missed investment upside** — Treating healthcare as cost-sharing blinds investors; healthier populations are the strongest growth engine of the 21st-century economy.
- 🌲 **Roadless Rule** — The U.S. Forest Service is seeking comments on a proposal to rescind the 2001 protections that ban roadbuilding and logging in sensitive wilderness areas; [go here to add your comments by Sept 29](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/08/29/2025-16581/special-areas-roadless-area-conservation-national-forest-system-lands?ref=s3t.org#open-comment).
---
**💯Want to be extra prepped?** [Change Leadership skills](https://www.s3t.org/what-is-change-leadership/) are your secret edge.
---
### \[emerging tech\]
Photo by [Daniele Levis Pelusi](https://unsplash.com/@yogidan2012?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
##
95% of Gen AI initiatives generate zero ROI per a new study by MIT
"Adoption is high, but transformation is rare" according to the [MIT State of AI in Business 2025](https://www.artificialintelligence-news.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/ai%5Freport%5F2025.pdf?ref=s3t.org).
[CIO's cite several patterns](https://nationalcioreview.com/articles-insights/extra-bytes/mit-finds-genai-projects-fail-roi-in-95-of-companies/?ref=s3t.org) contributing to lack of ROI: Failure to scale, misplaced spend and soft attrition vs measurable cuts. The [MIT report itself](https://www.artificialintelligence-news.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/ai%5Freport%5F2025.pdf?ref=s3t.org) also noted that Gen AI projects struggle when they to tackle highly complex business rules and processes:
> "Struggling categories were often those involving complex internal logic, opaque decision support, or optimization based on proprietary heuristics. These tools frequently hit adoption friction due to deep enterprise specificity."
### 🫧 More talk of an AI Bubble
"The entire U.S. economy is being propped up by the promise of productivity gains that seem very far from materializing" [says The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/economy/archive/2025/09/ai-bubble-us-economy/684128/?ref=s3t.org).
The Economist also notes a euphoric hubris coming from the usual suspects in Silicon Valley with references a transformation that will be "bigger than the Industrial Revolution", will create a "digital god" and be worth "hundreds of trillions." Of course many of these players have by now already had their payday, so the exuberance makes sense.
⚠️ "It will be a miracle if, in a decade or so, all of the “magnificent seven” listed tech firms, and the biggest AI startups, still exist." - [The Economist](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45162893&ref=s3t.org)
But the companies and investors still waiting for their ROI do not share the exuberance. [UBS bank says revenue generation so far has been disappointing](https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/09/07/what-if-the-ai-stockmarket-blows-up?ref=s3t.org).
This is an understatement: **Revenues are currently less than 2% of the 2.9T being poured into data centers between now and 2028...this is just the cost of *building* the datacenters** \- not operating and providing them with electricity.
**The bigger risk** says [Fade\_Dance (Hacker News thread)](https://news.ycombinator.com/user?id=Fade%5FDance&ref=s3t.org) that would overshadow any AI downturn is the **stock concentration bubble**: the "index concentration and the reflexive feedback loop which drives more and more passive dollars to the biggest companies."
---
### **\[macro-economics\]**
##
As we noted in June 2024, job figures have been inflated
[Job growth for the period of March 2024 to March 2025 was revised downward by 911,000](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/09/jobs-report-revisions-september-2025-.html?ref=s3t.org) this week, yes during the week of 9/11\. This means that job creation figures were overstated significantly for much of 2024\.
S3T readers were not surprised by the size of this downward revision: [The June 14 2024 Edition of S3T](https://www.s3t.org/june-14-2024/) explained the problem with the way the government measures jobs and quoted Economist Anna Wong who said at the time that job growth was being overstated by about a million jobs a year.
If you follow the link to the June 2024 edition you'll see links to a deeper dive that explains why it is difficult for the federal agencies to measure jobs objectively. There's a technical challenge that's important to understand. This is not a political conspiracy or effort to deliberately misstate job figures. It's just that its hard to do it correctly with outdated methods and technologies.
**Job search confidence lowest *ever*:** New York Federal Reserve's Survey of Consumer Expectations for August indicated a [44.9% probability of finding another job](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/08/worker-confidence-in-finding-a-new-job-hits-record-low-in-new-york-fed-survey.html?ref=s3t.org) \- the lowest since the survey began in 2013.
Want to stand out at your job? Change leadership is a skillset that sets you apart, enabling you to lead change effectively, and turn ideas into results. [Go here to see why Change Leadership is the most important skillset of the 21st century then sign up for a 30 day free trial to S3T full access](https://www.s3t.org/what-is-change-leadership/).
*Full Access Members: See the* [*S3T Economic Dashboard*](https://www.s3t.org/dashboard/) *for the Top 500+ US & International real-time economic indicators.*
---
### \[perspective\]
Photo by [Gabin Vallet](https://unsplash.com/@gabinvallet?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Healthy individuals and populations are the most reliable growth engines of the 21st century economy
Imagine being an investor and suddenly realizing you're missing out on some of the best opportunities.
One could argue this is happening right now: investors are missing out on an entire category of upside. Opportunities for financial returns, risk management and market leadership are being lost because we frame healthcare as a cost-sharing zero sum game where more powerful players deflect costs onto less powerful players while using philanthropy to maintain reputation.
This comes from a flawed understanding of what healthcare is:
*Conventional thinking in US healthcare assumes that healthcare finance is simply a set of costs to be shared between the patient, the insurer, and the government.*
Yet each of these players are really - whether they realize it or not - *investors* who have clear incentives to invest in good health outcomes:
- Patients have clear gains to be made by investing in their own health
- Insurers have clear gains to be made by investing in the health of their insured members (healthy members incur smaller medical costs, dead members don’t pay premiums etc)
- Governments also have clear gains to be made by investing in the health of their citizens: healthy citizens spend more, create more jobs, invest more and generate more taxable economic activity than sick or dead citizens.
If we agree that healthcare finance then is primarily an investment activity - not simply a cost sharing exercise - this takes us to a set of logical next recognitions:
- Patients, insurers and governments are typically *not* highly competent savvy investors...
- SO Partnership with professional and institutional investors would be helpful: after these players highly skilled at investing and know how to make use of all of the most powerful financial instruments.
The next question is:
What is the best way to make institutional investors motivated to become partners in the model of investing in health outcomes?
To illustrate the shift needed:
- Private equity firms aspire to invest in “sick” companies, believing that over time they are able to bring them to a healthier state.
- VC investors invest in young struggling startups and over time help them strengthen and grow
- Governments - leveraging their bailout prerogative - exercise what is essentially an investment action to intervene in an industry or large corporation that is facing an existential risk.
Each of these players intuitively understands a model of investing in the future health of companies or industries as economic agents who need to be healthy in order to maximize their economic potential.
Is it such a stretch for them to round out their investing activities to include investing in individuals and populations who are likewise economic agents **who need to be healthy in order to maximize their economic potential?**
Wouldn't it be logical for them to expand their exposure and upside by leveraging a model of **investing in the future health of individuals or populations as economic agents who when healthy can maximize their economic potential with positive spillover effects for investors.**
One vital step for making this work likely requires a change in tax policy:
Essentially a change in which the federal government says, “if you can increase the health and longevity (and by extension the taxable economic activity) of the tax base in the long term, then I will allow you pay a lower rate of capital gains taxes in the *near term*”.
The government would then be essentially trading *current* tax revenue for *future* (larger) tax revenue.
This is not a call for charity or corporate social responsibility—it is a recognition of missed investment upside. Framing healthcare as a zero-sum cost-sharing exercise blinds us to the fact that patients, insurers, and governments are already investors in health, albeit poorly equipped ones, doomed to dismal returns in a dysfunctional hodgepodge of legacy systems.
The opportunity here is not to offload costs while polishing reputations through philanthropy, but to unlock new channels of returns, risk mitigation, and long-term market leadership by **treating health as the investable asset it truly is.** Those who fail to act will forfeit both impact and profit. The gains will go to those who recognize that healthier individuals and populations are not just a social good—they are the most reliable growth engines of the 21st-century economy.
Founders and financiers: this is your shot.
---
### \[nature notes\]
Photo by [Niels Baars](https://unsplash.com/@nielsbaars?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## 🌲Your Input Needed: Roadless Rule
The National Forest Service is seeking comments on a proposal to rescind the 2001 Roadless Area Conservation Rule which prohibits road construction, repair and logging in certain wilderness areas.
To read the proposal and add your comments please go here no later than Sept 29:
[https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/08/29/2025-16581/special-areas-roadless-area-conservation-national-forest-system-lands#open-comment](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/08/29/2025-16581/special-areas-roadless-area-conservation-national-forest-system-lands?ref=s3t.org#open-comment)
The given justification for rescinding the roadless rule suggests there are local specifics the federal government is not suited to manage, and thus should turn this back over to the state and local governments.
**My take:** It's good for the federal government to give thoughtful consideration of what matters are best regulated by federal vs state or local governments.
But two key considerations guide this matter:
1. **The impact of roads in sensitive wilderness areas**
- Road making policies - especially in wilderness areas - should focus on protecting the nature's services (not just harvesting the consumables nature provides) and should not be allowed to contribute to depletion or degradation of those vital services (clean water, soil and pollinator sustainment, biodiversity, carbon storage, and recreation).
- Roads often increase wildfire risks by introducing more human access points and ignition sources. Roads can also accelerate erosion, fragment sensitive habitats, increase roadkill, degrade watersheds, and bring higher levels of trash and pollution into previously intact ecosystems.
1. **The partnership of federal and local governments**
- Local governments and communities often face overwhelming pressure from outside corporations seeking short-term logging, mining, and building permits - which may not be in the best interests of the community.
- The poor health, environmental damage, and persistent economic gloom of the Appalachian region remind us about the unfettered exploitation of natural resources and local communities that can occur when there is lack of accountability.
- The strongest accountability comes from federal + local government partnerships. Federal government can provide a helpful backstop to local governance, thru federal laws that take certain issues off the table and protect local communities from fighting unwinnable battles against large corporate interests. In this model, federal rules provide a supporting framework for nurturing irreplaceable natural resources, while local stakeholders guide management.
- Simply removing federal laws and protections in the belief that local communities can stand alone against corporate exploitation doesn't fulfill the spirit of right-sized government and local self-determination. It does however make it easier for certain players to trade the well-being of local communities for campaign donations from mining and logging companies.
I don't think any individual would intentionally do this. But collective actions have achieved these kinds of outcomes. I think we have to be careful.
## 🌏Antipodes
If you dig a hole straight through the earth where would you come out? Wonder no more: Go to [antipodesmap.com](https://www.antipodesmap.com/?ref=s3t.org) and enter your address.
The point exactly opposite your location on earth is called the *antipode*. Oh and that theoretical hole you’re digging? it will most likely come out under water: Only about 4% of the earths surface has land on the opposite side. For 96% of land, an ocean is the antipode.
---
### **\[panoramas\]**
- [Health](https://www.s3t.org/panorama-health/)
- [Macro](https://www.s3t.org/panorama-macro/)
- [Innovation](https://www.s3t.org/panorama-innovation/)
- [Habitat](https://www.s3t.org/panorama-habitat/)
- [Energy](https://www.s3t.org/panorama-energy/)
- [About S3T Panoramas](https://www.s3t.org/panoramas-about/)
###
**\[playbooks\]**
- [Spend Wisely in a Hype-Driven World](https://www.s3t.org/spendwisely/)
- [Gaining Buy-in for Data Modernization](https://www.s3t.org/s3t-playbook-data-modernization/)
- [Flipping the Script: Understanding and Changing Internal & Macro Narratives](https://www.s3t.org/changing-internal-and-macro-narratives/)
- [Shift to effective gatekeeping in the age of generative AI](https://www.s3t.org/genai-supervisory-workloads/)
- [How to Stop Zombie Projects from Sapping your Focus and Resources](https://www.s3t.org/stop-zombie-projects/)
- [Harmonize Different Kinds of Expertise to Achieve Success](https://www.s3t.org/harmonize-expertise/)
- [Addressing issues related to uneven accountability](https://www.s3t.org/disabling-accountability-shields/)
- [Validating AI use cases](https://www.s3t.org/validating-ai-use-cases/)
- [6 Proven Ways to Resolve Conflicts](https://www.s3t.org/6-ways-to-resolve-conflicts/)
See [Full List of S3T Playbooks](https://www.s3t.org/playbooks/)
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### How much to spend, Universal High Income, CEO turnover, de minimus, Quantum...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/how-much-to-spend-universal-high-income-ceo-turnover-de-minimus-quantum/
Last updated: 2025-09-05T08:50:51.000Z
*Today's accelerated business environment requires a different investment lens.*
---
S3T PodCast Sept 5 2025
0:00
/656.9534693877551
1×
🎧 Listen here or [on Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/episode/1mR3pN3Fw3hUl49SMzSM0o?si=IiTgK5e1QXO4ZxU%5FoVpzhg&ref=s3t.org)
###
Smarter in 30 seconds
- 🧭 **Perspective Shift** — Today’s world demands *do → learn*, not *learn → do*. The critical question is: *How much must we spend to find out what works?*
- ⏲️ **Faster Insights** — Sharpen questions, break them into working parts, and track time & money to minimize wasted effort.
- ⚡ **Control & Visibility** — Prototyping, parallel small bets, and a “learning ledger” turn uncertainty into a managed cycle of discovery.
- 📉 **Macro Signals** — Core inflation ticked up to 2.9%; consumer spending now outpaces income; and CEO turnover is at record highs.
- 🌍 **Debt & Tariffs** — Global investors hesitate on government bonds, while the end of the U.S. *de minimis* tariff exemption raises costs for 1.4B small-package imports.
- 🤖 **AI & Work Resilience** — Roles combining AI literacy with judgment, creativity, and emotional intelligence remain most durable; healthcare lags due to data scarcity.
- 🔮 **Tech Horizons** — From “Universal High Income” memes to $320M quantum rounds, to flying car preorders, the pace of change keeps accelerating.
- **🔐 Vibe Coding vs InfoSec** \- High profile examples of security holes in AI created apps are giving teams 2nd thoughts.
---
*S3T is the single best way to help you sharpen your emotional intelligence, creativity and emerging tech savvy week by week. Click the blue subscribe button to sign up now for S3T Full Access.*
---
###
### \[emerging tech\]
Photo by [Aleh Tsikhanau](https://unsplash.com/@ethnoza?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## AI, Universal High Income, Vibe Coding vs InfoSec, Quantum, Flying Cars!
### 💰AI and Universal Income
How to make your job AI-Proof [per Gizmodo](https://gizmodo.com/the-jobs-ai-is-replacing-the-fastest-2000645918?ref=s3t.org):
- "focus on fields where **human judgment, creativity, and emotional intelligence** remain crucial. Data shows that roles combining AI literacy with personal, physical expertise—like healthcare, technical educators, and consultants—tend to be more resilient."
- "Healthcare has seen a slow [adoption](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-01/healthcare-ai-struggles-with-data?ref=s3t.org) due to the scarcity of accessible datasets, because less than 10% of surgical data is publicly available, hampered by strict regulations and data fragmentation."
"Universal *High* Income" is a meme getting attention again this week: see [this X search result set](https://x.com/search?q=universal%20high%20income&src=typed%5Fquery&ref=s3t.org) for a rundown of the different quotes and reactions. This seems to be part of a set of more optimistic outlooks (see [End State 2030](https://www.endstate2030.com/?ref=s3t.org) for another example) that run counter to [MIT's 1970's "limits to growth" theory](https://thehill.com/changing-america/sustainability/climate-change/563497-mit-predicted-society-would-collapse-by-2040/?ref=s3t.org) predicting societal collapse by 2040\.
My 2cents: Nice to see optimistic takes, but there are a lot of details to sort through before even Universal *basic* income becomes workable - not to mention Universal *high* income. For one, we would have to **devise an easily accessible common ownership model that allows people to take an ownership stake in fleets of robots that do work** \- much the same way people can derive income and wealth from taking ownership stakes in companies (ie stocks).
If we treat this like a "challenge accepted" and then work hard to make it happen, then we'll have higher chances of making it work than if we just assume it's a manifest destiny.
This helps ward off the darker scenario hinted at by the awkward question: Is "Universal High Income" just a pipe dream dangled by billionaires to keep the masses calm while robots steal their jobs? It's entirely possible.
But there are a couple other angles to consider:
- A lot of employment comprises work we should be embarrassed to call jobs. David Graeber noted that corporate bureaucracies have become what he aptly labeled "vast engines of nonsense" that force people to waste their talent on mind-numbing unfulfilling forms of work just to pay their bills. If there's a chance to offload grunt work to robots, while preserving financial security, that's worth exploring.
- People happen to like the things that other people create - whether it's music, art, experiences, hikes, gifts, food or beer. That's unlikely to change, and offers a glimpse into a timeless economy. Think about what you like doing on your vacation. These are the things we're *supposed* to be doing. Were it not for a glitch in the world, you'd probably be doing those things 365 days a year.
Maybe we have a shot at getting to do more of what we're supposed to be doing vs. serving as custodians of those "engines of nonsense."
### ☢️ Vibe Coding vs InfoSec
For CISOs: [Vibe Coding has a bad security vibe](https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/dangerous-vibes-powering-vcs-favorite-startup-category?ref=s3t.org)...Investors (and customers) beware. AI-developed apps are prone to generating non-secure approaches - [even backdoors](https://iapp.org/news/a/vibe-coding-don-t-kill-the-vibe-govern-it?ref=s3t.org) \- for apps.
**"For example, after removing the payment feature from my experimental application, the system would only remove the front-end feature, not the back-end information like my Stripe API keys. I had to ask the AI system to specifically remove the keys; I then reviewed the code myself to ensure the information was not exposed."* \- [IApp on Vibe Coding Sept 3 2025](https://iapp.org/news/a/vibe-coding-don-t-kill-the-vibe-govern-it?ref=s3t.org).
[Wiz Research identified one such security vulnerability in Base44](https://www.wiz.io/blog/critical-vulnerability-base44?ref=s3t.org) that allowed unauthorized access to private apps. Security teams are scrambling to set up review processes for scrutinizing AI-generated code.
### ⚛️ Private quantum start‑ups continue to raise large funding rounds
Investors are pumping increasingly large funding round into Quantum technology as breakthroughs proliferate:
- [*IQM Quantum Computers* secured **$320 million** in a Series B round](https://www.reuters.com/technology/finlands-iqm-quantum-computers-raises-320-million-new-funding-round-2025-09-03/?ref=s3t.org), boosting its total funding to **$600 million**.
- [Quantinuum reaches $10B valuation](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/sep/04/quantum-computing-firm-reaches-10bn-valuation-as-investor-interest-builds?ref=s3t.org).
Quantum breakthroughs seem to be bringing generally available quantum computing closer than previously predicted.
- A new [cryogenic chip design uses could minimize power use, while maximizing scalability](https://www.thebrighterside.news/post/new-breakthrough-brings-quantum-computing-one-big-step-closer-to-solving-real-world-problems/?ref=s3t.org).
- This UC Irvine research recently discovered a [previously unknown state of quantum matter](https://scitechdaily.com/its-its-own-new-thing-scientists-discover-new-state-of-quantum-matter/?ref=s3t.org) that could enable high powered radiation resistant rechargeable compute on deep space missions.
- Another breakthrough harnesses ["heavy" electrons to achieve higher performance](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2025/09/250901104650.htm?ref=s3t.org) at normal room temperatures.
### Flying around the Bay
[Preorder your flying car](https://alef.aero/preorder.html?ref=s3t.org) from Alef, the Silicon Valley company that [started limited flight operations in the Bay Area](https://www.internationalairportreview.com/news/294211/alef-aeronautics-begins-flying-car-operations-at-half-moon-bay-and-hollister-airports/?ref=s3t.org) this week.
---
### **\[macro-economics\]**
Photo by [william william](https://unsplash.com/@william07?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Core Inflation, CEO Turnover, Bonds, *de minimis* Fallout
*Full Access Members: See the* [*S3T Economic Dashboard*](https://www.s3t.org/dashboard/) *for the Top 500+ US & International real-time economic indicators.*
- [Core inflation hit 2.9% in July, highest since Feb](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/29/pce-inflation-report-july-2025.html?ref=s3t.org). And in the latest data, [consumer spending outpaced income](https://gizmodo.com/tech-spending-july-2025-report-2000651432?ref=s3t.org) \- a sign households are dipping into savings.
- [CEO turnover rates are highest since tracking began in 2002](https://www.newsweek.com/ceo-exits-record-levels-economic-uncertainty-2120999?utm%5Fcampaign=medicare-pre-approval-corporate-leadership-crisis-and-preventing-disease&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fsource=www.1-b-e-t-t-e-r.com)
- Global investors who in other times would gladly buy government bonds are [increasingly hesitant](https://www.barrons.com/articles/global-bond-rout-yields-rise-446fd090?ref=s3t.org) due to worries about government debt levels and the economic grind down of tariffs.
**Watch Item: How will end of the de minimis tariff exemption impact the US economy?** On August 29 [the "de minimis" tariff exemption (allowing packages valued at $800 or less to enter the US without tariffs) expired](https://www.wsj.com/business/retail/de-minimis-what-to-know-online-shopping-949454a5?ref=s3t.org). This means the cost of orders from international merchants will rise, and shipping firms like UPS and Fedex will have to shoulder the additional work of tracking and collecting tariffs on all packages rather than jus the ones valued at $800 or more. Last year [1.4 billion packages worth a total of $64B entered the US](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cnv7l575lgeo?ref=s3t.org). See [Fedex guide to tariffs](https://www.fedex.com/en-us/shipping/international/us-tariffs-impact.html?ref=s3t.org).
---
### \[perspective\]
Photo by [charlesdeluvio](https://unsplash.com/@charlesdeluvio?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
##
🧭 *How Much Do You Have to Spend to Find Out?*
*Today's accelerated business environment requires a different investment lens.*
Whether you are:
- In healthcare or pharma facing rapid obsoletion of old business patterns
- In tech facing changing regulations and new waves of competitors
- In finance facing the remaking of the worlds financial architecture
Instead of working from certainty, we are always working from *uncertainty.* Instead of "learn then do", today its "*do, then learn*".
So the most important issue now is not "what do we do?" but rather, how much do we have to invest in order to find out (what to do)?
Let's break this down:
The acceleration of emerging tech innovation combined with today’s rapidly evolving economy forces organizations to be in **constant discovery mode** *finding out what works and what doesn't.* The old cycle of "plan a strategy, then do a series of projects to implement that magnificent strategy" is obsolete. Nothing is certain for long.
Leadership teams are struggling - the way a football team might struggle if it were suddenly forced to play basketball: no more huddles, just constant motion with on-the-fly adjustments.
In similar fashion today's organizations must operate in non-stop learning mode - a continuous cycle of asking questions, then finding the shortest, most cost effective way to answer them.
The good news is, we can learn to manage this new continuous flow of activity in a way that helps position teams for better success.
### How to reframe and think differently
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### 🎯8.29.2025 - Distraction vs Direction: Set Your Path to End-of-Year Wins
URL: https://www.s3t.org/8-29-2025-distraction-vs-direction-set-your-path-to-end-of-year-wins/
Last updated: 2025-08-29T05:16:17.000Z
*Today's media distracts us with dramas beyond our control, instead of showing us actionable insights for achieving our goals*
S3T PodCast Aug 29 2025
0:00
/783.229387755102
1×
🎧 Listen here [or on Spotify.](https://open.spotify.com/episode/1RX5vkxWuQdNbozkDM5OjY?si=08CbU99pR2CBqdHsQZKB2A&ref=s3t.org)
### Happy Friday and welcome to the S3T Labor Day edition!
- ⏳ **Time is tight** – We’re past the halfway mark of the year; now is when focus determines whether 2025 goals are achieved or missed.
- 📰 **News has narrowed** – Media coverage concentrates on a few personalities or controversies, ignoring the breadth of meaningful developments.
- 📚 **Warnings long ago** – Thinkers like Walter Lippman (1922) and Chomsky/Herman (1988) foresaw the manipulation of public opinion via mass media, now supercharged by ad-driven platforms.
- 😡 **Emotion over insight** – Outrage, scandals, and spectacle are optimized for clicks—crowding out useful signals needed for sound decisions.
- 🧠 **Toxic effects** – Skewed media diets erode focus, fuel stress, and push individuals, teams, and organizations toward reactive choices instead of purpose-driven progress.
- 🔍 **Missed opportunities** – While noise dominates headlines, valuable signals (scientific advances, new models, skills, local opportunities) are sidelined.
- 🛠 **A better strategy** – Prioritize primary sources and value-creators (researchers, builders, practitioners) over pundits; diversify inputs with credible data and technical insights.
- 🌱 **Education, not agitation** – Choose information that builds knowledge and capability; ignore noise to reduce anxiety, make better decisions, and unlock growth. Leverage curated S3T resources to help you build your own list of topic sources of insight (links in the newsletter below).
*Recent academic research confirms what many of us intuitively sense: the information landscape is becoming increasingly concentrated, repetitive, and focused on outrage rather than actionable insights.*
*Is your media consumption driving you to learn and succeed—Or lose focus and burn out?* **How to regain your focus and finish strong in 2025\.**
---
Photo by [Towfiqu barbhuiya](https://unsplash.com/@towfiqu999999?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### Now is the time when focus matters most
We’ve crossed the halfway mark of the year—school is back in session, budgets are in review, fall is just around the corner, and for many, the window to deliver on 2025 goals - personal or organizational - is rapidly closing. **It’s the season when focus matters most.**
So today I want to share something vital that is going to help you really hone your focus, achieve what you want to achieve and finish strong in 2025\. You've been working hard all year and I want to give you something that will help you make the most of your time and energy you've invested.
Have you noticed the *concentration* of "news"?
Every week I plow through the headlines of the top finance and tech publications. What's interesting is - across so many publications - **how small and limited the news has become: The focus is always on the same 1-2 personalities, 1-2 companies, 1-2 situations.**
In spite of millions of companies, projects, breakthroughs, challenges, lessons learned, valuable insights, forwarnings etc, there is this myopic focus on an extremely limited set of topics, that for the large part also happen to be the **least helpful - or presented in an unhelpful and incomplete manner.** They are either things we can do nothing about - such as disasters in distant regions, or non-issues we should probably just ignore...like this week's hub-bub over Cracker Barrel.
Photo by [AbsolutVision](https://unsplash.com/@alterego%5Fswiss?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### What to understand about today's media
In 1988 Edward Herman and Noam Chomsky published a book called "[*Manufacturing Consent: The Political Economy of the Mass Media*](https://www.abebooks.com/servlet/BookDetailsPL?bi=32268523619&dest=usa&ref%5F=ps%5Fggl%5F17730880232&cm%5Fmmc=ggl-%5F-US%5FShopp%5FTrade%5F10to20-%5F-product%5Fid=COM9780375714498USED-%5F-keyword=&gad%5Fsource=1&gad%5Fcampaignid=17190383924&gbraid=0AAAAAD3Y6gvchJ7rWRwBB9XtFXEc3j4Uw&gclid=Cj0KCQjw%5FL%5FFBhDmARIsAItqgt4QMXbOCeUfen3G5lKn97CWoSxuLigsclDJ6rcjx5LSJPaP5Ve5aNkaAgqgEALw%5FwcB&ref=s3t.org)" In it, they warned that media platforms would become highly effective tools for managing the beliefs and opinions of the public.
This concern was first raised by Walter Lippman in his 1922 book "[*Public Opinion*](https://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/6456?ref=s3t.org)" where he coined the phrase "*the manufacture of consent*" with 2 assertions:
- "the opportunities for manipulation open to anyone who understands the process are plain enough"
- thanks to "psychological research coupled with the modern means of communication, the practice of democracy has turned a corner."
As someone said, the bones of the future are visible in the present. Even though these books were written decades ago, they accurately describe what is unfolding today - turbocharged by advertising driven revenue models. And what is having a very toxic impact on our ability to focus in a meaningful way on meaningful work.
### Emotional triggers vs useful actionable insights
In today’s information economy, news has become **highly concentrated**, not around what is most useful or noteworthy, but around *what is most likely to capture emotional attention*. Platform owners, driven by advertising models, optimize for clicks and emotions—not insight.
The result?
- Scandal, outrage, and spectacles are prioritized.
- Meaningful developments are eclipsed.
This concentration doesn’t just skew public discourse—it **undermines decision-making, performance, and mental health** in organizations. Executive teams, bombarded with hype driven headlines make premature investments that serve vendor margins better than shareholder value. Individuals get caught up in taking sides in debates over technologies, politics, or situations, spending valuable time generating more heat than light, and more stress than insight.
### Toxic preoccupation
Individuals and organizations committed to achieving their potential, must avoid deriving insights and priorities from headlines and memes: they can only bring misdirection and frustration.
- Careers can drift toward *reactivity* instead of *purpose*.
- Teams can lose focus, caught up in distractions rather than progress.
- Organizations can chase “urgent noise” rather than the “quiet signals” that shape long-term success.
In short: the wrong information diet leads to the wrong outcomes.
Today's media tempts us to imagine we are experts on distant dramas we can’t influence - while staying ignorant about actionable opportunities within our reach.
In the 21st century, **ignoring the loudest noise and tuning into the quietest signals makes the difference between leading vs. drifting.**
While mainstream media focuses on a narrow band of political personalities and controversies, genuinely useful information gets relegated to the periphery:
• Scientific breakthroughs that could inform your field
• Innovative business models emerging in your industry
• Skill development trends that could advance your career
• Local opportunities for networking, learning, or community involvement
• Practical solutions to problems you actually face
The current system trains us to be experts on distant dramas we can’t influence while remaining ignorant about actionable opportunities within our reach.
****🛠️ If you aren’t working hard on an issue, you probably shouldn’t have a hard opinion about how to solve it.**
### A Better Information Strategy
- Diversify Beyond Breaking News: Replace reactive news consumption with proactive learning from scientific and technical sources *(see links to curated lists of top resources further below).*
- Follow Builders, Not Commentators: Instead of following political pundits and media personalities, follow people who are actively working and creating value:
- Researchers publishing in your areas of interest
- Entrepreneurs building solutions and solving real problems
- Practitioners sharing lessons learned
- Local leaders making tangible community improvements
- Taking this approach will also tend to put you in proximity to good Primary Sources: Get information directly from:
- Actual results from case studies and tests
- Academic papers and research institutions (where findings are based on field work and active attempts to solve a problem)
- Company filings, earnings calls and annual reports
- Credible government data releases (economic indicators, research findings)
- Professional conference presentations and industry reports
There's a VERY important principle here: **If you aren’t working hard on an issue, you probably shouldn’t have a hard opinion about how to solve it.** Beware of platforms or "news" sources that simply reinforce the views of people those who are not actively engaged in actually trying to make things better.
Why? if you’re working hard to solve a certain type of issue then your opinion and your viewpoint is probably more actionable more specific more useful than someone who’s not working on the issue at all and doesn’t understand the challenges the reality on the ground, so to speak. **Work *informs*.**
Look for other people who are also action oriented, and see what you can learn from them.
Recognize what is not worth consuming or monitoring, and ignore it. Making this shift will give you reduced anxiety and *an increased sense of agency*.
- You'll be able to have more meaningful conversations rooted in substantial rather than superficial knowledge.
- You'll make better decisions - based on actionable intelligence.
- This will in turn enable growth and success at both the individual and org level.
Photo by [Jason Goodman](https://unsplash.com/@jasongoodman%5Fyouxventures?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### Takeaway: Education not Agitation
Our information diet shapes our worldview, emotional state, and ultimately our success. Remember: **The current media landscape is optimized for advertising revenue, not human flourishing**. By consciously choosing sources that educate rather than agitate, we can adopt a less stressful more productive way of consuming information, and turning it into competitive advantage.
While others exhaust themselves tracking the daily circus, you’ll be building knowledge and capabilities that actually matter for your life and work.
---
### S3T Platform Resources
On the S3T Platform you'll find curated lists of top sources of insight and news - click the links below to explore and begin building your own set of go to sources:
### 🏫 [S3T Resource Library](https://www.s3t.org/topics/)
*Curated collections of insights, time-saving explainers and accelerators that frame key trends and issues with important context and perspectives. Some include worksheets or additional resources.*
### 🛠 [Best Online Tools & Resources](https://www.s3t.org/tools/)
*Top trusted online tools that save you time and $$$, as well as best online sources for emerging tech & research, economic insights, shifts, trends, history, culture and nature.*
### 🌍 [Global Economic Dashboard](https://www.s3t.org/dashboard/)
*500+ US & Intl real-time economic indicators organized by nation and release dates. Tap or click any indicator for detailed charts.*
### 🪙 [Crypto Market Caps](https://www.s3t.org/cmc/)
*Top 100 Crypto Market Prices and Indicators. Colors indicate 24hr price movement, size of boxes indicate Market Cap.*
---
### Further reading
[Metrics at Work: Journalism and the Contested Meaning of Algorithms](https://sts.stanford.edu/publications/metrics-work-journalism-and-contested-meaning-algorithms?ref=s3t.org)
How algorithms changed journalism and drive a shift from news to memes.
[Reuters Institute Digital News Report 2024](https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2024-06/RISJ%5FDNR%5F2024%5FDigital%5Fv10%20lr.pdf?utm%5Fsource=chatgpt.com) \- Finds that legacy social media (Facebook, X, etc) are actively reducing the role of news, while newer platforms drive a shift to visual pre-occupation with content that doesn't fit the definition of news.
[Stop the Presses? Newspapers in the Digital Age](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R47018?ref=s3t.org) \- Congressional Research Service review of the consolidation of daily newspapers 2003 to 2023\.
[With Foreign Bureaus Slashed, Freelancers Are Filling the Void](https://www.american.edu/soc/news/with-foreign-bureaus-slashed-freelancers-are-filling-the-void-at-their-own-risk.cfm?ref=s3t.org). Overview of the decline of international reporting.
[Nonprofits Fill the Gap in Statehouse News Coverage](https://www.pew.org/en/trust/archive/fall-2022/nonprofits-fill-the-gap-in-statehouse-news-coverage?ref=s3t.org) \- similar review of the decline in focused state level reporting.
[The Agency Makes the (Online) News World Go Round: The Impact of News Agency Content on Print and Online News](https://ijoc.org/index.php/ijoc/article/viewFile/7109/2330?ref=s3t.org) \- Notes the loss of news diversity.
Mental Health Consequences: Studies show that exposure to negative news significantly increases anxiety and depression, with research finding that election-related news stress was linked to higher mental health risks among young adults. Yale psychologist Molly Crockett notes that [outrage cycles produce “fatigue and disengagement”](https://www.npr.org/2019/10/09/768489375/how-outrage-is-hijacking-our-culture-and-our-minds?ref=s3t.org) : when every story is presented as urgent and outrageous, audiences lose the ability to distinguish genuine signals from noise, and miss information that could actually improve their lives or work.
Photo by [frank mckenna](https://unsplash.com/@frankiefoto?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### 8.22.2025 - Edubot Naija, Conscious AI, Loopholes, the next OS, Inflation 2.0
URL: https://www.s3t.org/8-22-2025-edubot-naija-conscious-ai-loopholes-the-next-os-inflation-2-0/
Last updated: 2025-08-22T05:28:27.000Z
*Financially empowered customers are better for long term ROI than customers who have had their financial futures stolen through predatory policies.*
---
S3T PodCast Aug 22, 2025
0:00
/1147.3240816326531
1×
🎧 Listen here or [on Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/episode/5VzVeKaa5oSCsVeGzBrvhe?si=fH5h7xikRzOaeHY2TqkHTA&ref=s3t.org)
### Top lessons & insights of the week in 30 seconds
- 🌍 **Change Leadership in Action** — Bold innovators are unlocking education by tackling systemic language gaps head-on.
- 🧠 **Seemingly Conscious AI (SCAI)** — Mustafa Suleyman warns of AI that “triggers human empathy circuits,” raising ethical and mental health risks for society.
- 🤖 **Robots on a Joystick** — FieldAI’s backpack kit transforms existing machines into remotely operated workers for dirty, dull, and dangerous tasks.
- 💸 **Signals in the AI Market** — Meta freezes hiring, investors eye a possible *AI data center bubble*, and micro-agents like Tinyfish quietly gather data power.
- 📉 **Inflation 2.0** — Powell’s final Jackson Hole address comes amid softening jobs, surging bankruptcies, and political pressure for rate cuts despite inflation stuck above 2%.
- 🏛️ **America’s Next Operating System** — Peter Leyden: populists tear down, progressives build up; AI, clean energy, and biotech will underpin the *fourth U.S. reinvention*.
- 🏦 **Banking’s Tug of War** — Banks lobby Congress to block stablecoin yields, fearing deposit flight—but this collides with U.S. Treasury’s need for stablecoin reserves to fund debt.
- ⚡ **Leadership Imperative** — From classrooms in Nigeria to Wall Street, the lesson is clear: change leaders don’t just adapt—they architect the next system while others cling to the old. Don’t wait for perfect conditions—create new systems that serve *citizens, not custodians*.
---
Photo by [Namnso Ukpanah](https://unsplash.com/@namnsoukpanah?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### Edubot Naija
Great example of change leadership in action
*Using AI to unlock education opportunities in low-resource languages*
The [Edubot Naija initiative](https://techafricanews.com/2025/08/14/a-computer-training-launches-edubot-nigeria-to-deliver-ai-powered-education-in-indigenous-languages/?ref=s3t.org) is helping to close education gaps in Nigeria by making learning materials available in local languages that have not traditionally been the focus of targeted education efforts.
In Nigeria as well as other areas of the world, a significant portion of the population may speak a dominant language like English, but their best fluency and learning happens in their own local language. Unfortunately, education materials and teachers are not available in these local languages. In fact most EdTech platforms are English-only.
Context on Dominant languages vs Low resources languages:
- Dominant languages (like English, Mandarin, French, German) have high numbers of speakers, are used commonly in business and education and have highly available education resources and opportunities for literacy, backed by deep academic research and infrastructure (libraries, universities, software, digital resources, online courses etc).
- Low resource languages do not have these same kinds of support. The community of speakers may be limited to a few thousand to a few million. The individuals in this community may have limited opportunities to learn other languages or move to other locations with greater education and economic opportunities. A relatively small number of individuals are fluent in this language as well as dominant languages, of these an even smaller number may have knowledge of technology or other modern domains of expertise.
So thankfully, innovative change leaders - *including some in the S3T community* \- have taken action to launch African language initiatives such as Edubot Naija, as well as others like SERENGETI and AfroLID, and YorubaGPT. All are building AI tools and data sets to address the challenges of "low-resource" languages.
The following links below provide deeper dive into how these solutions work.
### Further Reading and Learning:
**YorubaGPT** \- a [ChatGPT style agent that can respond to prompts](https://globalvoices.org/2025/03/08/a-group-of-nigerian-linguists-are-training-ai-tools-on-yoruba-language-dialects/?ref=s3t.org) written in the Yoruba language and provide outputs in Yoruba as well. Try it out here: [https://yorubagpt.com/](https://yorubagpt.com/?ref=s3t.org)
**SERENGETI** \- A massively multilingual language model for African languages. Its details are available in a research paper and on platforms that host AI models.
- **Research paper:** [https://aclanthology.org/2023.findings-acl.97/](https://aclanthology.org/2023.findings-acl.97/?ref=s3t.org)
- **Model page:** [https://dataloop.ai/library/model/ubc-nlp\_serengeti/](https://dataloop.ai/library/model/ubc-nlp%5Fserengeti/?ref=s3t.org)
**AfroLID** \- A neural language identification toolkit that supports hundreds of African languages. It is often cited alongside the SERENGETI project.
- **Project documentation:** [https://afrolid.readthedocs.io/](https://afrolid.readthedocs.io/?ref=s3t.org)
- **GitHub repository:** [https://github.com/UBC-NLP/afrolid](https://github.com/UBC-NLP/afrolid?ref=s3t.org)
- **Research paper:** [https://aclanthology.org/2022.emnlp-main.128/](https://aclanthology.org/2022.emnlp-main.128/?ref=s3t.org)
👉 Further below we'll learn about Peter Leyden's leadership concept of serving "citizens not custodians." Edubot Naija and its peer projects are all great examples of harnessing technology to create systems that enrich the *citizens* of a region, vs just enriching those who own and operate those systems.
---
### \[emerging tech\]
Photo by [Leiada Krözjhen](https://unsplash.com/@leiadakrozjhen?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### Seemingly Conscious AI
Mustafa Suleyman, CEO of Microsoft AI and one of the minds behind Microsoft's Copilot, [raises concerns about Seemingly Conscious AI (SCAI)](https://mustafa-suleyman.ai/seemingly-conscious-ai-is-coming?ref=s3t.org) and its impacts to human mental stability. SCAI might "trigger human empathy circuits" and endear itself in highly compelling ways to vulnerable individuals. Thought provoking reading for anyone developing or investing in AI technology.
Related: [WhenAIseemsConcious.org](https://whenaiseemsconscious.org/?ref=s3t.org) is a guide created by researchers to help people understand and be aware of the human tendency to humanize other things including AI. Highly recommended awareness for mental health professionals and AI ethics and governance practitioners.
### Remote control kit for Robots
[FieldAI](https://www.fieldai.com/?ref=s3t.org) creates backpack that can be added to [existing robots to make them controllable via a joystick.](https://www.axios.com/2025/08/20/fieldai-raises-over-400-million-to-make-robot-brains?ref=s3t.org) A remote worker can "drive" the robot remotely to perform tasks in "dirty, dull or dangerous" environments.
### Signals - is AI overheating?
- [Meta is freezing its AI hiring](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/meta-ai-hiring-freeze-fda6b3c4?st=GwQLzL&ref=s3t.org) amid concerns about overspending, and threats to shareholder returns.
- This interactive [FT deep dive on AI Data centers](https://ig.ft.com/ai-data-centres/?ref=s3t.org) suggests we may be seeing the early formation of a bubble in the AI data center space.
- Data gathering [AI Agents like Tinyfish](https://www.reuters.com/technology/ai-agent-startup-tinyfish-raises-47-million-iconiq-led-round-2025-08-20/?ref=s3t.org) are gaining interest. This is an example of highly useful services that don't necessarily need gargantuan nuclear powered data centers to thrive.
---
### \[macroeconomics\]
Photo by [Cora Leach](https://unsplash.com/@coramaureen?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
*Full Access Members: See the* [*S3T Economic Dashboard*](https://www.s3t.org/dashboard/) *for the Top 500+ US & International real-time economic indicators.*
## Where do we go from here?
This Friday in Jackson Hole Wyoming, Jerome Powell delivers what is expected to be his last address on the economy.
[Wall Street will watch the speech for hints of rate cuts](https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/economy/what-will-powell-say-in-his-jackson-hole-speech?ref=s3t.org) for good reasons:
- [Employment is softening](https://www.marketplace.org/story/2025/08/21/rising-unemployment-claims-signal-a-softening-job-market?ref=s3t.org) in spite of a [reduced immigration work force](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/21/trump-immigration-policy-labor-force.html?ref=s3t.org),
- [Corporate bankruptcies hit their highest monthly totals](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/articles/2025/8/july-us-corporate-bankruptcy-filings-hit-highest-monthly-total-in-5-years-91873904?ref=s3t.org) since the pandemic.
- **Political pressure for rate cuts is rising, but so is inflation, which** [**still remains above the target of 2%**](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us%5Finflation%5Frate?ref=s3t.org)**.**
[Courtesy of Yahoo Charts](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us%5Finflation%5Frate?ref=s3t.org)
### So is this the beginning of Inflation 2.0?
Inflation 1.0 always held that an acceptable rate of inflation was 2%. Inflation 2.0 would represent a revision - an acquiescence to a new definition of "low inflation" at 3-4%.
Or will it just be quietly normalized over time? Will this be explicitly announced, with a clear rationale?
Such an acknowledgment (that inflation is winning) might lend credence to the thinking of investors like Ray Dalio who propose higher allocations in non-inflationary assets:
[Ray Dalio warns investors to allocate 15% of their portfolio to gold and crypto because of skyrocketing U.S. government debtDalio said the impending “economic heart attack” caused by increasing federal debt hasn’t been priced in.FortuneMarco Quiroz-Gutierrez](https://fortune.com/2025/07/30/ray-dalio-stocks-bonds-federal-deficit-portfolio-gold-bitcoin/?ref=s3t.org)
As noted in previous S3T perspectives, the standard definition and tracking of inflation has been fuzzy: See [Flawed inflation tracking and how to correct it](https://www.s3t.org/inflation-tracking/). I think we should be asking our elected representatives that our federal government take an updated approach to how we track and measure inflation.
Reuters has a great [history of Powell's past Jackson Hole speeches with charts](https://www.reuters.com/business/how-fed-chair-powell-has-used-jackson-hole-signal-whats-next-2025-08-21/?ref=s3t.org) showing Inflation, Unemployment and Interest Rates at the time of the speech and the 12 months after.
[Courtesy of Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/how-fed-chair-powell-has-used-jackson-hole-signal-whats-next-2025-08-21/?ref=s3t.org)
We're facing an era shaped by AI and a job economy impacted by high percentage of retirees, along with Government debt and global restructuring. What comes next?
### America's next operating system
In his essay "[*America's fourth reinvention*](https://www.exponentialview.co/p/americas-fourth-reinvention?ref=s3t.org)" Peter Leyden sees a brighter future via an interesting comparison of populists vs progressives and how **their interaction creates new economic growth cycles**:
*Populists tear down old systems that aren't working for them while Progressives build new systems.*
Leyden supports this view with a brief history of the phases of economic growth in the US. Highlights from the essay:
- "The Revolution, the Civil War and the Great Depression were all moments when Americans tore down an exhausted model and replaced it with one fit for a new age. We are there again today."
- "A wave of general‑purpose technologies sparked each of America’s three past reinventions, and each lit a political firestorm before settling into decades‑long booms."
Leyden sees MAGA as a demolition crew but points out "The problem is, they are not builders." Fortunately, Leyden says "technologists and systems thinkers are sketching the outlines of the next American operating system, built around artificial intelligence, clean energy and biotechnology."
☮️ "**Don’t be fooled by high‑profile tech titans who jumped on the Trump train. Much of the Bay Area’s innovation economy remains left of center and offers prototypes of the new progressive movement.*" - [Peter Leyden](https://www.exponentialview.co/p/americas-fourth-reinvention?ref=s3t.org)
My take: This essay indulges in a bit of "Silicon Valley saves the world" sentiment, but the overall thesis is solid. Leyden's points that resonated with me the most:
- 20th century systems (banking, healthcare, regulatory, economic, trade) devolved to serve **"their custodians, not their citizens"**
- The apathy of center-left and center-right politicians drove frustrated voters to extremes (ie Bernie Sanders, Donald Trump)
- We need to intentionally build the next "operating system" and it needs to be intentionally designed to serve citizens not custodians.
Leyden says transformative technologies like AI, bioengineering and clean energy aren't in themselves inherently progressive: "The challenge is to bend these forces toward humane ends." Look past the destruction and consternation on the East Coast - the next era of reinvention is being built.
---
Photo by [Meritt Thomas](https://unsplash.com/@merittthomas?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### Tug of war over the Genius Act "loophole"
*If banks want to prevent loss of deposits, they need to pay higher yields*
[Banks are lobbying Congress](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2025/08/14/wall-street-joins-consumer-advocates-to-call-for-edit-to-genius-act-on-stablecoins?ref=s3t.org) to “close a loophole” in the Genius Act, saying they fear a decline in deposits. [Example press release from the Bank Policy Institute](https://bpi.com/closing-the-payment-of-interest-loophole-for-stablecoins/?ref=s3t.org)
The flight of deposits to stablecoins started long before the Genius act. Why? Charging double digit interest rates on loans to customers then paying the same customers less than 1 percent yields on their deposits, actually does not inspire customer loyalty. It makes customers feel victimized, and drives them to seek alternatives.
Instead of asking lawmakers for shelter from the free market, banks should see this as an opportunity to deliver higher value. Compete. (Welcome to capitalism!) Compared to emerging competitors like Circle and Coinbase, banks have a perfectly fair opportunity be leaders in financial innovation:
- Understand what customers need in the 21st century
- Apply this to their mission and update their core competencies
- Recognize: financially empowered customers are better for long term ROI than customers who have had their financial futures stolen through predatory lending policies.
Banks have to evolve like the rest of us and they don’t get to be exempt from capitalism. Leading banks actually have embraced this mindset. Recommended action: Call the US Capitol switchboard (202) 224-3121 and ask to speak to your representative, and share your thoughts.
### The win win - possibly...
Personally I'm not sure that the powers in Washington will allow the stablecoin market to be constrained by concerns from banks. Just to connect some dots:
- The US government needs to finance its huge and growing debt by selling Treasuries.
- Traditional buyers of Treasuries are having 2nd thoughts about wisdom of continuing to buy them, amid concerns about US debt levels.
- Treasury secretary [Scott Bessent hopes the crypto industry will fill the gap](https://www.ft.com/content/1914c189-b4ed-46dd-adde-106b08a68183?ref=s3t.org) and become a new major buyer of Treasuries(Stablecoin issuers and exchanges offering stablecoins are required to hold US denominated reserves equal to the stablecoins in their purview).
- How do these crypto exchanges attract people to hold stablecoins? By paying them yields. As mentioned above, these yields are significantly higher than what one can typically get from their traditional banks.
- If banks were to convince Congress to ban yields from stablecoins, then the government loses a major source of debt financing.
SO it will be interesting to see how this tug of war goes.
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### 🦄 8.15.2025 - IDEs vs C-suites, AI Agents stress orgs, Intelligent Wallets, Unicorns, Web3 UX
URL: https://www.s3t.org/8-15-2025-ides-vs-c-suites-ai-agents-stress-orgs-intelligent-wallets/
Last updated: 2025-08-15T05:28:17.000Z
*Problem owners + solution owners + AI = the new authority. Everything else is just churn.*
S3T PodCast Aug 15 2025
0:00
/1110.151836734694
1×
Listen here or [on Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/episode/6g1nZJfrx69F2meIUyBIot?si=e7CtR3UTSLiH0oUSa2KKYg&ref=s3t.org)
---
### Top insights for the coming week in 30 seconds
- 🚀 **AI Agent Boom** – Organizations are rapidly building generative AI agents thanks to leadership urgency for efficiency and new low-friction platforms; *build times have shrunk from months → hours.*
- ⏱️ **Near-Term Stress #1** – Shortened dev cycles create operational headaches as support teams *lose the prep time once built into longer delivery schedules*.
- 🔄 **Near-Term Stress #2** – AI-savvy builders *attract work away from traditional business/product owners*, causing role ambiguity and long-term ownership gaps.
- 🧠 **Leadership Response** – Upskill legacy teams, embed engineers with business users, and empower “problem owners + solution owners + AI” as the new authority.
- 🛠️ **Long-Term Shift** – AI-powered IDEs (e.g., Replit Agent, Layers) could evolve into enterprise platforms, combining build, support, marketing, and launch in one environment.
- 📅 **Strategic Warning** – Avoid committing to large 5–10-year platforms without stress-testing assumptions—business conditions will change dramatically by 2030.
- 💳 **Intelligent Wallets** – AI + crypto wallets will unify identity, payments, memberships, and onboarding, putting customers in control of their data and access.
- 🥇 **First-Mover Advantage** – Companies experimenting with intelligent wallets now will lead the next era of seamless, secure, personalized customer engagement.
---
### **\[perspective\]**
Photo by [Stefan Steinbauer](https://unsplash.com/@usinglight?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## 🗺️ Near Term and Long Term Impacts of AI Agents
More and more orgs are building their own generative AI agents that answer questions or perform tasks in response to plain language requests.
**2 Drivers behind widespread experimentation with AI Agents:**
- Leadership urgency to adapt to the changing economy and business climate and find new efficiencies.
- New technology platforms that make it easier to build AI Agents.
The progression is exponential: in the past year the observed average time to build a working agent (for business need ...not entertainment) has gone from months->weeks->hours.
Let's unpack the near term and long term impacts of this rapid change. And then a bonus section: impacts that are *closer than you think* (Intelligent Wallets).
### 😰Near Term: Organizational Stress
The rapid emergence of AI Agents, and *the way they get built* is having a disorienting effect on organizations, and its important to understand the factors in play:
**Org Stress Point #1: Shortened development cycles = more production support headaches:** Whether its small teams using Replit Agent, or larger teams using enterprise solutions like Snowflake or Databricks, developers can now build AI Agents in just a few hours that previously would have taken weeks or months.
This is creates a problem:
*Who is supposed to support all these new apps that are being generated on such short notice??*
Think about the timing issue: previously new apps came with a longer delivery timeline that gave everyone time to:
- Arrange for operational support and
- Get the operational team familiar with the new apps or systems they were going to support.
That preparation buffer has all but disappeared.
**Org Stress Point #2: Organizational dislocations & ambiguity:** Teams or individuals who build working agents gain a reputation for rapid delivery/rapid value creation. This attracts attention and excitement naturally. As a result, **work starts flowing to those who know how to create agents** rather than the original departmental owners.
Traditional roles like "Business Owner" and "Product Manager" even "IT Owner" become marginalized. Once again, this runs into the issue: who is going to support these apps on an ongoing basis?
It's one thing to create an agent for yourself, or for 1-2 users that you work closely with. It's another thing altogether to create an agent that manages work on behalf of a departmental function of the company.
Thoughtful Change Leaders are finding ways to respond thoughtfully to these challenges:
- Find ways to upskill the "owning" teams so they stay in the game. This is hard. The realities of day to day operations support for legacy technologies can be so immersive. It's very easy for support teams to drift into less and less relevant/less performant tech capabilities over time. So we have to intentionally make opportunities for teams to learn new skills.
- Retrain leaders to think about *combinations of humans and AI agents working together* \- agnostic to org structure. On the human side we want to see **team members with deep engineering skills working side by side with business customers.** This direct partnership is key.
- Why this works: value happens when we bring problem owners and solution owners together. Refuse to allow layers of hierarchy, departmental silos, anything to come between them. Why? Because they are the new Wayfinders, guiding the company to value.
- Reset expectations about where authority comes from. It does not come from titles or top layers. Problem owners + solution owners + AI = the new authority. **Everything else is just churn.**
---
### 📊 Long Term: Run your enterprise from an IDE?
###
Courtesy Replit.com
[Village Global’s recent discussion](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/village-global-podcast/id1316769266?i=1000713824508&ref=s3t.org) of the progression of AI in coding tools surfaced an early trend to watch: **AI-powered Intelligent IDEs becoming the new enterprise platforms.**
🛠️ An IDE, or Integrated Development Environment, provides programmers with all the tools they need in a single work space. Similar to a carpenters workbench with all the tools hanging in easy reach from a pegboard - or an artist's studio with easel, canvas, paint and brushes all ready for use.
Glimpses of what's coming:
- The [Replit Agent IDE](https://replit.com/?ref=s3t.org) not only includes direct control over all data sources, code and working apps, but also does a credible job **providing customer support for an app being built**. To see this in action, create an app, then ask questions about how that app works. Sometimes the agent answers the questions with helpful explanations, and sometimes the agent will say, "Actually I need to fix something," then fixes it and relaunches a new version. You can also ask it to generate user documentation - and it will.
- Layers is [a new AI Agent that markets your app from within the IDE](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/hasantoxr%5Fbreaking-this-ai-is-replacing-marketing-activity-7330491388997849091-vSIK/?ref=s3t.org) you're using to build it. It has direct access to the details of the app, so makes sense that it could be well positioned to market the app you're launching. [Get Early Access here](https://www.uselayers.ai/?ref=s3t.org).
The speakers on the Village Global panel expect IDEs to eventually include other built in functions like the ability to launch a company, handle filings etc. In 2017, Jack Ma famously [predicted a robot would be Time Magazine's CEO of the year in 30 years](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/24/jack-ma-robots-ai-internet-decades-of-pain.html?ref=s3t.org). IDEs populated by AI Agents offer a glimpse of how that might play out. **Will Intelligent IDEs replace executive suites?** We'll see.
Key takeaways:
- If the large mission critical platforms in your industry have a typical shelf life of 5-10 years, you want to **be very thoughtful about what large platform implementations are being launched right now**.
- The business environment in 2029 or 2035 will be *nothing like today*.
- Check your assumptions about what current processes will continue with incremental changes vs. those that will be massively disrupted - perhaps by [one-person unicorn companies](https://economist.com/business/2025/08/11/how-ai-could-create-the-first-one-person-unicorn?ref=s3t.org) aka soloprenuers (already popping up).
AI and Finance are converging - watch the crypto / blockchain based architecture space. This is going to enable a different business and consumer marketplace populated and driven by Intelligent Wallets. Most of what we think of us mission critical enterprise platforms today will be useless.
### 📲Sooner than you think: Intelligent Wallets
Intelligent wallets—where AI meets crypto—are set to replace today’s jumble of apps, accounts, and IDs. From banking and insurance to loyalty programs and onboarding, these wallets will become the front door to every interaction - a single, secure hub controlled by the customer. **Companies learning this now will own the next era of customer engagement.**
Forward-thinking companies are already exploring how these wallets can streamline onboarding, transactions, and customer engagement.
What's driving this? If you step back, you see 2 larger trends:
- The convergence of AI and Crypto - as described in previous editions of S3T.
- The Crypto industry's focus on driving adoption through more accessible user experience.
[Unicorn.eth](https://www.myunicornaccount.com/?ref=s3t.org) is an example worth studying. The company has its roots in the Ethereum community where the founders pioneered a way to make onboarding, ticketing and other customer membership experiences simple and quick.
- The team ran ETHDenver one of the world’s largest crypto conferences entirely through digital wallets.
- Attendees used their wallets to pay for items, join events, and access services—all in one place.
- With traditional crypto wallets, set up was tricky and confusing, but new Unicorn.eth approach made onboarding quick and simple.
- They took the intimidating complexities associated with crypto wallets (gas fees, cryptic addresses, risk of sending funds to the wrong recipients etc), and found a way to handle them securely behind the scenes.
[Unicorn.eth](https://www.myunicornaccount.com/?ref=s3t.org) is now making that same simplified onboarding and membership experience available to any companies who needs to onboard and retain members. [See the Unicorn walk-thru demo here (Youtube)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mNuSkcSDres&ref=s3t.org).
This same approach could work for industries like real estate, insurance, and banking—making customer sign-up, payments, and document access far smoother.
🐵 Don't be fooled by the silly monkey NFTs - These are most likely the future version of your insurance card, your gym membership, perhaps even your citizenship IDs...which might include a mix of nation states and [network states](https://thenetworkstate.com/?ref=s3t.org).
Add AI-powered assistants to these wallets, and they can offer personalized help, security, and convenience in real time. Intelligent Wallets will reside on phones, but expect expansion beyond phones— watches, wearables, and new devices. Watch for partnerships between crypto companies and hardware makers.
**Before Intelligent Wallets**
- Customers download multiple apps for banking, insurance, memberships, and events
- Data and logins are scattered across different accounts
- Onboarding for new services is slow and repetitive
- Payments, tickets, and IDs are stored in separate places
- Limited personalization—service providers hold most of the control
**After Intelligent Wallets**
- One secure wallet replaces many apps
- Customer controls their own data and access
- Onboarding is near-instant with reusable verified identity
- Payments, memberships, tickets, and IDs live in one place
- AI assistants in the wallet offer real-time, personalized help
Additional note: there are *Corporate* Wallets too. These are rule based wallets that require multiple designated individuals to sign off on decisions. These activities are audit trailed in an immutable blockchain. As AI capabilities are embedded in these wallets, expect to see corporate governance start to shift from boardrooms to on-chain via Intelligent Corporate Wallets.
**Companies that start learning and experimenting with intelligent wallets today will have the edge in this next big shift in how customers handle their data and finances.**
🏆 You just learned how to help your leaders and teams diagnose some of the key stressors impacting orgs right now, and understand the best ways to respond. You also got advance notice of upcoming changes you can help your teams and partners get ready for.
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### 🏁8.8.25 "Clock Speed, Drag, & Disruption: Token risks, too many Data Centers?
URL: https://www.s3t.org/aug-8-cloc/
Last updated: 2025-08-08T02:02:44.000Z
*Speed can be learned.*
S3T PodCast Aug 8 2025
0:00
/1113.1297959183673
1×
🎧 Listen here or [on Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/episode/4dNRsKfuSREJvoK1IiQVaq?si=WM1rATX4TN-S28yVJNkuXQ&ref=s3t.org)
---
### ⏱️ 30 seconds to set you up for *wins* this week:
⚡️ **Shorten Cycles, Boost your Clock Speed**
- The "clock speed" originally from computing, refers to how fast individuals, teams, and organizations move from ideas to results.
- Shorter cycles from decision to action, and from task to completion, lead to higher momentum and faster value delivery.
🛑 **2 Kinds of Drag Slow Progress**
- Internal drag: Perfectionism, fear, and distractions hinder momentum.
- External drag: Outdated processes, siloed teams, and unclear priorities create friction at organizational levels.
🚀 **4 Proven Strategies to Increase Clock Speed**
- **Break goals into small, actionable steps** for clarity and faster execution.
- **Visual feedback and frequent updates** keep momentum high through visible progress indicators (e.g., dashboards, progress bars).
- **Reduce recovery time after setbacks** by fostering a culture of resilience and fast iteration.
- **Substitute perfectionism with grit**—focus on progress, not perfection, and push out early drafts for feedback.
**Macro & Emerging Tech**
- 🌏 **China's Leadership Succession**: Leadership change in China will shape global economic and geopolitical dynamics—leaders must stay informed.
- 🤖 **OpenAI Goes Open Source**: OpenAI’s new open-source models provide flexibility and innovation opportunities. Leaders should assess their impact on tech stacks.
- 🪙 **Tokenization Risks**: Poorly executed tokenization projects, like in real estate, highlight the need for thorough evaluation, compliance, and transparency.
- 🌐 **AI Data Center Sustainability**: Growing AI data centers in water-scarce regions raise environmental concerns—leaders should explore sustainable alternatives to mitigate impact.
---
### **\[perspective\]**
Photo by [Sabri Tuzcu](https://unsplash.com/@sabrituzcu?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## **⏱ Clock Speed: What's Driving (or Draining) Your Momentum**
Just like a processor, **you — and your organization — have a "clock speed."**
How fast do you go from 0 to 1? Idea to value? How fast the team *actually* producing results, learning, iterating, and advancing.
---
💡
The term **clock speed* comes from the world of computing. It originally referred to how many cycles per second a processor could execute — measured in megahertz (MHz) or gigahertz (GHz). A faster clock speed meant faster processing and more responsiveness. Over time, this computing performance concept came to be applied to organizational and individual performance.
Today, we use the term **clock speed is used to describe the tempo at which individuals, teams, and entire organizations execute.**
- If an organization has a slow clock speed, decisions drag, projects stall, and momentum fades...precious windows of opportunity close and the organization falls further behind.
- On the flip side, high-clock-speed organizations iterate quickly, make timely decisions, and seize opportunities while others are still scheduling the meeting to discuss them. One of the implications of newer faster development tools: **applications are being built as the customer describes them.**
All these factors are forcing companies and leaders to a renewed focus on clock speed.
Let’s explore how this concept applies to **you**, your **team**, and your ability to stay in rhythm with change—and even lead it.
---
### 🔍 What Is Clock Speed?
Clock speed is the tempo of execution. What happens in a specified amount of time.
It’s the hours/days between:
- ✍️ Writing down a task→ Doing it
- 🤔 Making a decision → Taking the first step
- 🔁 Trying something → Trying again *immediately after failure*
And for your team or org:
- 💡The time between customer insight → and actual product improvement
- 📍The time between strategy → and value and impact
- ⚠️ The time between problem identified → and solution deployed
**Shorter cycles = higher clock speed = more momentum. Shorter time to value.**
---
### 🛩️ The enemy of Clock Speed: Drag
Have you ever said, or heard someone say, "I'm being slowed down by \_\_\_\_."
In aerodynamics, **drag** is the resistance an object faces as it moves through air. It slows progress and increases the energy required to maintain speed.
Clock speed is slowed by drag and we can experience drag in 2 ways:
- **Internal drag:** Perfectionism, distraction, fear. These types of friction reduce our psychological momentum and emotional readiness.
- **External drag:** In organizations, drag takes the form of outdated processes, unnecessary approvals, unclear priorities, or siloed teams. These external frictions systematically create internal frictions for entire teams.
As Change Leaders we need to be vigilant to address internal friction in ourselves as well as the external frictions impacting our teams and partners.
When we shape org structures, processes as well as personal behavior and decision-making patterns for higher clock speed **we can move faster without burning out.**
---
### ⚡️Top 4 ways to increase Clock Speed
**#1\. Specific steps with small feedback loops** – Break big goals into small clearly defined steps, and clear criteria for knowing whether we've finished the step successfully or not. The more specific you can be about the actual work that needs to be done, and the expected result of that work, the more clear all the players can be, and the faster things can move. This kind of clarity makes it easier for people to own the outcome, and move faster.
One extra bonus: Being very specific about what exact work needs to get done will also help surface elephant-in-the-room kinds of issues that people are avoiding...which are one of the biggest barriers to clock speed. People delay, deflect (do other things that burn time) when there is an issue they aren't confident in how to address.
As a change leader you can help by laying out the issue in a detailed way, and suggesting options and then asking team members to work together to find the best options and the best way forward.
**#2\. Use visual feedback and frequent updates** – Individual team members, stakeholders and entire orgs benefit from frequent visible interaction focused on progress. Kanban, dashboards, progress bars, daily logs—whatever keeps time and results visible. Demo's set for specific dates help create focus and accountability. Visibility and frequency work hand in hand to increase clock speed.
**#3\. Shorten recovery time** – This refers to the time between setback and the next attempt. It is very easy when a setback or failure has occurred, to want to avoid the problem or project. It doesn't feel exciting anymore. Don’t let a setback become a stall-out. Bounce back fast. **Tip:** To do this consistently, you need a [Contentment Mindset](https://www.s3t.org/mindset-contentment/) as noted in the [Change Leadership Learning Series](https://www.s3t.org/change-leadership-learning-series/).
**#4\. Trade perfectionism for *grit.*** One of the most powerful ways to increase your clock speed—your ability to make progress and get feedback—is to substitute perfectionism with grit.
Perfectionism is often just avoidance in disguise—a way to hide from the accountability of releasing imperfect work.
In this excellent post, [What is Perfectionism and How to Cure It](https://amasad.me/perfectionism?ref=s3t.org). Amjad Masad's shares his own journey's and insights on this concept of trading perfectionism for grit.
Grit means pushing through that uncomfortable stage where your work isn’t polished, where the praise hasn’t come yet, and where progress feels messy. The willingness to finish the first rough draft and share an imperfect version invites feedback, accelerates learning, and makes a big difference in your forward momentum.
Instead of waiting until something feels “perfect”, aim for an 80% first draft. Get it out, subject it to critique, and improve from there.
Don’t let perfectionism slow your clock speed. Put something real into motion—and refine it in motion.
---
### 👟Put into practice what you just learned
**This week pick something that matters and measure it.** Start small. Track time between:
- *Idea → Execution → Iteration*
- *Task written → Task started → Task done*
- *Decision made → First action taken*
At the team/org level:
- Average time to ship a product improvement
- Lag between customer feedback and response
- Speed from insight → cross-functional alignment → action
Track this for 1-2 weeks and then take some time to review. Notice when there was a loss of momentum. When time passed without meaningful progress. What contributed to that? What can you adjust to have better clock speed next time?
Congratulations! You're joining the ranks of the most successful people and teams who don’t just think faster. They **cycle faster. More cycles =** More feedback, better insights, faster growth, and ultimately, more value.
---
### \[macro-economics\]
Photo by [Hanson Lu](https://unsplash.com/@hansonluu?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
*Full Access Members: See the* [*S3T Economic Dashboard*](https://www.s3t.org/dashboard/) *for the Top 500+ US & International real-time economic indicators.*
### China's Leadership Succession
China's current leader may have another 10 years or so. But the process of succession will soon start to have an impact - and eventually lead to a very different China, Tyler Jost and Dan Mattingly write in their essay [After Xi](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/after-xi-jinping-jost-mattingly?ref=s3t.org).
🌏 For more global outlook data points, see the latest [S3T Panorama on Macro trends and items to watch](https://www.s3t.org/panorama-macro/).
### US Agriculture Impacts: 40% of farm workers are undocumented.
US Farmers are [spending more $ on lobbying efforts](https://www.ft.com/content/55c5a237-aaa1-48ee-8d8a-cb5e02638599?ref=s3t.org) in an attempt to raise awareness of how the mass deportation and tariffs are impacting the nation's food supply. [Growers report that 70% of workers don't show up for work after ICE raids](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/08/05/trump-agriculture-trade-immigrants-pesticides/?ref=s3t.org), leaving crops unharvested - sometimes missing the crucial 2-3 day window for harvesting crops that are ripe and ready.
[ICE raids are disproportionately impacting small farms](https://theweek.com/politics/ice-agricultural-fields-undocumented-deportations?ref=s3t.org) who can't afford to navigate the maze of steps required to secure H-2A agricultural visas.
As detailed in [Immigration in context of talent strategy & economic health](https://www.s3t.org/immigration/), federal policy that pushes the easy button of deportation vs. getting serious and doing the hard work of **fixing our convoluted and dysfunctional immigration process** simply constricts supply of labor required to keep food and housing affordable.
The [NBC/NIQ graphic](https://www.nbcnews.com/data-graphics/grocery-price-tracker-inflation-trends-eggs-bread-trump-administration-rcna191508?ref=s3t.org) below shows the growth in food prices since this time last year.
[Food Inflation Figures Courtesy of NBC](https://www.nbcnews.com/data-graphics/grocery-price-tracker-inflation-trends-eggs-bread-trump-administration-rcna191508?ref=s3t.org)
###
---
### **\[emerging tech\]**
###
Photo by [Geoffrey Moffett](https://unsplash.com/@geoffreymoffett?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
###
### 🖥️ Signal: Are we building too many data centers?
As noted in this interactive [FT deep dive on AI Data centers](https://ig.ft.com/ai-data-centres/?ref=s3t.org), we may be seeing the early formation of a bubble in the AI data center space.
- Data centres in drought-prone states such as Arizona and Texas raise concerns about water sustainability. Data centers generate heat - and require cooling. So we're building a lot of them in Arizona???
- Residents in Georgia have complained that Meta’s development in the state has damaged water wells, pushed up the cost of municipal water and led to shortages that could see water rationed.
Sasha Luccioni, AI and climate lead at Hugging Face notes alternative AI training techniques like [distillation](https://www.ft.com/content/c117e853-d2a6-4e7c-aea9-e88c7226c31f?ref=s3t.org) or smaller models, can enable powerful models at lower costs - and wonders if this myopic quest for more compute power is misguided
**“It’s almost like a mass hallucination where everyone is on the same wavelength that we need more data centers without actually questioning why*.” - Sasha Luccioni
**For more context, visit the latest** [**Innovation Panorama**](https://www.s3t.org/panorama-innovation/)
###
🤖OpenAI gets back to Open Source
This week [OpenAI announced the release of 2 Open Source models](https://openai.com/index/introducing-gpt-oss/?ref=s3t.org) \- gpt-oss-120b and gpt-oss-20b - the first since 2019\. The firm says the models perform on par with the proprietary 04-mini and 03-mini models.
[OpenAI models are being made available on AWS](https://techcrunch.com/2025/08/05/for-the-first-time-openai-models-are-available-on-aws/?ref=s3t.org). Developers will have the option to access 2 OpenAI models via AWS Bedrock and Sagemaker.
### 🏠Tokenization in Real Estate: What can go wrong
This week's excellent [RWApanel discussion on RealT](https://www.youtube.com/live/aO2doKSQ-IE?ref=s3t.org) goes into the details of a very sad exploitative scheme that came to light recently when the [city of Detroit sued a crypto real estate firm](https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/detroit-city/2025/07/02/detroit-sues-crypto-real-estate-company-real-token-blighted-properties-foreign-investors/84443682007/?ref=s3t.org) claiming to run a [tokenization approach designed to improve real estate economics in Detroit](https://medium.com/@TrustlessState/introducing-realt-tokenizing-real-estate-on-ethereum-9b8a995dc3fe?ref=s3t.org).
The firm allowed foreign investors to buy fractional ownership shares in properties but then failed to meet obligations to the city and its residents, [not to mention its investors](https://outliermedia.org/realt-detroit-real-estate-properties-investors/?ref=s3t.org).
Tokenization has a lot of promise, but this specific situation is a case study in what can go wrong when there is a lack of accountability - key learning opportunity for governance teams preparing to deploy tokenization for real world applications.
---
Photo by [ELISA KERSCHBAUMER](https://unsplash.com/@%5F%5Felisa%5F%5F?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
###
**\[playbooks\]**
- [Spend Wisely in a Hype-Driven World](https://www.s3t.org/spendwisely/)
- [Gaining Buy-in for Data Modernization](https://www.s3t.org/s3t-playbook-data-modernization/)
- [Flipping the Script: Understanding and Changing Internal & Macro Narratives](https://www.s3t.org/changing-internal-and-macro-narratives/)
- [Shift to effective gatekeeping in the age of generative AI](https://www.s3t.org/genai-supervisory-workloads/)
- [How to Stop Zombie Projects from Sapping your Focus and Resources](https://www.s3t.org/stop-zombie-projects/)
- [Harmonize Different Kinds of Expertise to Achieve Success](https://www.s3t.org/harmonize-expertise/)
- [Addressing issues related to uneven accountability](https://www.s3t.org/disabling-accountability-shields/)
- [Validating AI use cases](https://www.s3t.org/validating-ai-use-cases/)
- [6 Proven Ways to Resolve Conflicts](https://www.s3t.org/6-ways-to-resolve-conflicts/)
See [Full List of S3T Playbooks](https://www.s3t.org/playbooks/)
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### 🥣 8.1.2025 AI diagnoses, tech outsourcing, gravy, healthcare innovation cycles
URL: https://www.s3t.org/8-1-2025-ai-diagnoses-tech-outsourcing-gravy-healthcare-innovation-cycles/
Last updated: 2025-08-01T02:56:40.000Z
*What holds us back more often than anything else is lack of curiosity.*
S3T PodCast Aug 1, 2025
0:00
/986.8277551020408
1×
🎧 Listen here or [on Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/episode/3hVhDM1oUUNZHCjobDvGof?si=eQpOsWnzTsiUH2xHHL0URA&ref=s3t.org)
---
### ⏱️ 30 seconds to set you up for a better week:
Welcome to S3T! It's time to take a few minutes to set yourself up for success. Give yourself **ways to win** this week:
- Know the top Economic drivers impacting your customers
- Know the top Technology insights and issues your team needs to deal with
- Get ahead of the curve on key industry shifts.
*Start your stopwatch here we go:*
**🔄 Innovation Reset in Healthcare**
The U.S. is entering a *new* health innovation cycle — moving beyond apps and wearables toward **unified data systems** and **financial innovation**. The White House and CMS are calling for a *"patient-centric ecosystem"*, but the jury's out on whether this is real change or just another gravy train.
**💸 Fewer, Bigger Bets in Digital Health**
VCs are regrouping after a down cycle in digital health startups. Funding is down, but **deal sizes are up**, with AI and late-stage plays commanding attention. The message: no more funding-for-the-sake-of-it. Show ROI or get stuck in exit limbo.
**📉 Growth Up, Confidence Lukewarm**
GDP is up 3%, but *business investment is down* and consumer confidence is still trailing 2024 levels. Inflation lingers, and **cost pressures will persist** — especially in sectors facing supply chain strain or global friction.
**🇮🇳 India's Role in a Multipolar Economy**
India is now ahead of China in iPhone exports to the U.S. and may soon dominate Apple’s supply chain. But with **U.S.-India trade talks stalling**, execs with exposure to Indian partners should watch for tariff shocks — and for ripple effects in tech outsourcing.
**⚖️ AI Chat = Legal Risk**
Chat logs with AI tools (like ChatGPT) could be **discoverable in court**. If your team’s sharing sensitive info with external AI, talk to Legal *now* — **what you type can and will be used against you.**
**🧠 AI Changing the Diagnosis Game**
Ultromics' EchoGo is now **FDA-cleared and Medicare reimbursed**, using AI to identify elusive heart conditions with **73% better accuracy**. This is not just cool tech — it's a sign AI is maturing into core clinical infrastructure - offering ways to cut down on the trail and error of diagnosing complex diseases.
**🧭 Humanities vs Engineering: A Leadership Lens**
Engineering disciplines are accountable to math and physics. Humanities? To persuasion and perception. Great leaders will need to balance both — but **must know when math trumps narrative.**
**Bonus:** [**The latest S3T Healthcare Panorama**](https://www.s3t.org/panorama-health/) **is now available for paid memberships.**
****The latest S3T Healthcare Panorama**
---
**You're now tuned into the deeper signals beneath the noise.** From healthcare shifts to legal blind spots in AI, and from global trade currents to economic undercurrents — you’ve got the advantage. Ready to lead the week, sharper and ahead of the curve. ✅
You’re done! Whenever you need more context and insight come back and enjoy the rest!
---
### **\[perspective\]**
Photo by [Ana Lanza](https://unsplash.com/@anitalanza?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
###
## US Healthcare innovation cycles: digital health->unified data->*financial innovation*
This week the White House, CMS and a set of healthcare companies pledged to modernize or create (depending on which release you read) a "patient-centric healthcare ecosystem."
- "White House, Tech Leaders Commit to Create Patient-Centric Healthcare Ecosystem...*Leading Healthcare, Tech Companies Pledge to Work on Interoperability & User-Friendly Apps*." [CMS Newsroom Press Release](https://www.cms.gov/newsroom/press-releases/white-house-tech-leaders-commit-create-patient-centric-healthcare-ecosystem?ref=s3t.org)
- "The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) is taking bold steps to modernize the nation’s digital health ecosystem" [CMS Health Technology Ecosystem Overview](https://www.cms.gov/health-tech-ecosystem?ref=s3t.org).
- List of companies making the pledge to participate: [companies listed by industry category](https://www.cms.gov/health-tech-ecosystem/early-adopters?ref=s3t.org).
### The previous cycle: digital health startups
This latest hoped for innovation cycle comes on the heels of a cooling period (Tom Loverro called it a [mass extinction event](https://x.com/tomloverro/status/1662107706973630467?ref=s3t.org)) for a previous cycle where digital health startups were a focus:
- Venture capital funding rounds for US digital health startups have hit a 5 year low [CBInsights Q2 Digital Health](https://www.cbinsights.com/research/report/digital-health-trends-q2-2025/?ref=s3t.org).
- The average deal size is up: fewer, larger deals that emphasize AI and later stage ventures. ([Rock Health H1 2025](https://rockhealth.com/insights/h1-2025-market-overview-proof-in-the-pudding/?ref=s3t.org))
- US average deal sizes continue to be 2-3x of other regions as noted starkly in this [KPMG Venture Pulse Q2 2025](https://kpmg.com/kpmg-us/content/dam/kpmg/pdf/2025/venture-pulse-q2-2025.pdf?ref=s3t.org) chart, suggesting that the US startup industry needs to reconnect with its original lean and scrappy roots.
Realities that investors are navigating:
- Too many digital health startups were launched in the previous era of easy money (That era is over). Investors are left to figuring out what to do about all this locked up capital.
- The digitization of healthcare went as far it could and hit a wall: US healthcare's fundamental risk and cost model. Until that is updated, affordability and investor ROI will be elusive.
- This requires deeper, more fundamental change than wearables, apps, data standards & AI analytics.
### True change or just another gravy train?
[Data needs to be less fragmented](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-30/apple-google-openai-to-work-with-feds-to-make-health-data-helpful?ref=s3t.org), yes, but **the equations that make use of the data need to be rewritten.** And yes, a patient centered ecosystem is essential. But this will have to be more than a bunch of healthcare vendors lining up to add more cost to the system.
**Continue reading in the latest version of the S3T** [**Healthcare Panorama**](https://www.s3t.org/panorama-health/)**.**
*S3T Panoramas are unique executive briefings that provide leaders and investors with 2 essentials:*
- *Broader view of the drivers and overlooked trends shaping an industry.*
- *Clarity on the root cause issues and how to capitalize on the shifts and changes underway.*
---
**In case you missed it:**
Photo by [Greg Rakozy](https://unsplash.com/@grakozy?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### *Humans can be convinced of almost anything. The rest of the universe, not so much.*
[**2 Categories of Disciplines Every Change Leader Must Understand**](https://www.s3t.org/2-categories-of-disciplines-accountable-vs-negotiable/)**.** Humanities vs Engineering disciplines are different not just in content, *but in accountability.* Going forward, this has huge implications for your decision making and your workforce.
---
### \[macro-economics\]
Photo by [Mario Gogh](https://unsplash.com/@mariogogh?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
*See the* [*S3T Economic Dashboard*](https://www.s3t.org/dashboard/) *for the Top 500+ US & International real-time economic indicators.*
## Current business environment: positive signs amid continued concerns
Despite favorable GDP figures and a slight uptick in consumer confidence, the U.S. economy shows slowing business investment, lower growth vs 2024, with inflation still a concern. **Cautious optimism is warranted, but plan for persistent cost pressures, and shifting demand patterns.**
- The Fed kept [interest rates steady at 4.25%](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5427938-federal-reserve-interest-rates/?ref=s3t.org) this week, after [prices increased again in June](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf?ref=s3t.org).
- [GDP rose 3%](https://abcnews.go.com/Business/us-economy-expected-grown-trumps-tariffs-hold/story?id=124183248&ref=s3t.org) \- higher than the expected 2.3%, but may be more a reflection of import/export math than healthy economic growth - [Business investment decreased](https://mlq.ai/news/us-economy-surges-with-3-gdp-growth-in-q2-2025-driven-by-trade-policy-shift/?ref=s3t.org). Growth in the first half of 2025 is [less than half of what it was the same period of 2024](https://www.haver.com/articles/u-s-gdp-q2-25-shows-more-growth-less-inflation?ref=s3t.org).
- [Consumer Confidence increased 2.1% in July.](https://www.haver.com/articles/u-s-consumer-confidence-increases-in-july-inflation-expectations-ease?ref=s3t.org) This is still 4.6% lower than this time last year so we have room for improvement. But this is welcome news.
### India rising in the multipolar world
[India overtakes China in iPhone exports to the US](https://www.theverge.com/news/715013/india-overtakes-china-in-smartphone-exports-to-the-us?ref=s3t.org), and Apple may be on track to source all iPhones from India before 2027\. ([Apple started assembling iPhones in India in 2017](https://www.theverge.com/2017/5/17/15651842/apple-iphone-india-assembling-begun?ref=s3t.org)). iPhones are [currently exempt from tariffs](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-31/apple-s-india-exports-to-emerge-unscathed-from-trump-tariffs?ref=s3t.org).
India US trade talks have stalled [as the prospect of 25% tariffs loom](https://edition.cnn.com/2025/07/30/business/india-tariffs-russia-sanctions?ref=s3t.org). Perspective from India: "[India must be careful](https://www.dqindia.com/news/trump-tariffs-bring-challenges-and-opportunities-for-indian-it-sector-8941417?ref=s3t.org)" Preeti Anand writes, because:
- Tariffs won't *directly* impact India's substantial IT outsourcing and software services, but could indirectly impact as American firms have to cut costs due to inflation.
- Expect low growth in the near term as US firms trim their budgets
- Focus on building more advanced tech skills and expanding in markets outside the US
Related: [India's gated communities are flourishing](https://www.economist.com/asia/2025/07/24/gated-communities-are-flourishing-in-india?ref=s3t.org) (Economist) but as[ residents comment in this Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/india/comments/1mcm8vu/gated%5Fcommunities%5Fare%5Fflourishing%5Fin%5Findia%5Fbut/?ref=s3t.org), the "rich India/poor India" issue continues.
---
### **\[emerging tech\]**
Photo by [Tingey Injury Law Firm](https://unsplash.com/@tingeyinjurylawfirm?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### AI & Legal Discoverability
ChatGPT CEO Sam Altman reminds us that [what you and your staff share with ChatGPT could be used against you in a court of law.](https://www.businessinsider.com/chatgpt-privacy-therapy-sam-altman-openai-lawsuit-2025-7?ref=s3t.org)
This likely applies to **any** conversational AI solution where one company's private data or information is entered into another company's computing environment and retained there. Logs of interactions between company staff and an AI solution could be subject to **discovery requests** or a **subpoenas** during the **discovery phase** of litigation.
*➡️ Recommended action: check in with your legal team on how best to manage this risk.*
### AI reducing subjective interpretation of complex medical diagnosis
Ultromics has created [EchoGo the first FDA-cleared, Medicare reimbursed AI solution](https://tech.eu/2025/07/31/ultromics-raises-55m-series-c-to-scale-ai-driven-heart-failure-detection/?ref=s3t.org) for detecting 2 heart conditions that are very difficult to diagnose, and often rely on costly trial and error to arrive at an accurate diagnosis.
EchoGo's AI model was trained the world's largest echocardiogram datasets, and in a trial of 430,000 echocardiograms improved detection rates by 73%.
---
### *🙏 Thank you for your change leadership, and your work to drive intentional innovation and beneficial change.*
*Kudos to you. You just invested your time sharpening your thinking on key issues and staying informed on the top business and tech developments. In doing so you demonstrated that you care about your own success and the success of your customers and your team. Have a great weekend! And great wins in the week ahead!*
Photo by [Kevin Mueller](https://unsplash.com/@kevinmueller?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### 🧠Rethink Leadership for Real-World Wins
URL: https://www.s3t.org/rethink-leadership-for-real-world-wins/
Last updated: 2025-07-30T12:15:19.000Z
*Charisma ≠ Competence. How you increase your ability to create wins.*
S3T PodCast July 25, 2025
0:00
/982.3608163265307
1×
🎧 Listen here or [on Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/episode/6Gjref6Mb0XfsuEswUp5hd?si=i-DJzNNOSgmFXtK8FJtlbg&ref=s3t.org)
### This issue in 30 seconds:
**🔮 *Charisma, Reality & the Call for Discernment***
America’s long infatuation with charismatic leaders—from revivalists to modern politicians—often leads to mass delusion, overlooked warnings, and eventual disillusionment. Consequences always follow, no matter how convincing the voice.
⚠️ **When Leadership Invites Error**
Recent tragedies—from floodplain policy failures to meme coin crashes—show what happens when authority figures enable or excuse poor decisions. Nature, markets, and math do not respond to charisma.
🛠️ **Disciplines: Fudge vs. Force-Based**
There are two kinds of expertise:
• *Fudge disciplines* (law, marketing, consulting) shape perception.
• *Engineering disciplines* (tech, data, physics) must face immovable realities. Only one gets punished when things break.
📉 **The Accountability Gap**
Non-technical leaders often dominate decisions while technical experts are sidelined—leading to misalignment, shallow progress, and fragile strategies.
📈 **ROI Favors Technically Literate Teams**
Organizations that bring engineers, data SMEs, and emerging tech specialists into planning—not just execution—achieve faster, more durable outcomes.
🤝 **Bridge the Divide**
Break down IT vs. business silos. Cross-disciplinary collaboration (AI, crypto-finance, analytics) builds resilience and unlocks complex problem-solving capacity.
🌍 **Geopolitics Is Now AI-Powered**
Nations are reallocating energy infrastructure—from oil to renewables—not for climate, but to power AI. Saudi Arabia, UAE, and China are all racing to fuel AI dominance.
📜 **AI Governance Watch: Signal & Scrutiny**
The U.S. AI Action Plan includes vague "free speech" restrictions that appear political, but also important steps: open-source encouragement, incident response playbooks, and required CISO-AI team integration—signals of future federal procurement standards.
---
### **\[perspective\]**
Photo by [Library of Congress](https://unsplash.com/@libraryofcongress?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
##
Charisma in American History
*Ironically, America has always had a thing for charismatic authority figures*
In her new book “[*Spellbound: How Charisma Shaped American History from the Puritans to Donald Trump*](https://lareviewofbooks.org/article/unveiling-a-hidden-narrative/?ref=s3t.org), Molly Worthen takes us through a whirlwind history of America's long running infatuation with charismatic leaders: 19th-century frontier revivalists and prophets, 1970s spiritual gurus, and of course today's political cults.
Worthen describes a pattern that plays out repeatedly:
- An unlikely but charismatic figure reveals new vision for fixing everything
- Followers are seduced and join in propelling euphoric movements
- Followers suffer (as a result of the leader's errors and limitations), and the movement fades.
In the aftermath, sobering realities return: Charismatic authority figure can't protect us from the consequences of error.
Euphoric infatuation with charismatic authority figures leads people - with a range of intelligence levels - to ignore obvious warning signs and suspend their better judgment.
A few examples:
- It became fashionable in late 2024 to downplay climate change and the environment as lower priority than business and economics. Mother Nature clearly isn't onboard, sending harsh reminders that without the environment there is no economy. In the aftermath of tragic floods in Texas and NC, evidence emerges of failures on both sides of politics: during the Obama administration and again during the first Trump administration [FEMA granted multiple requests to remove Camp Mystic facilities from flood map designations](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/camp-mystic-appealed-to-remove-buildings-from-femas-100-year-flood-map-records-show?ref=s3t.org)...literally paving the way for less protections and vigilance against the kind of flood that took 27 lives on July 4\.
- Crypto exchanges [rushed to list the Trump meme coin and did so in suspiciously short turnaround times](https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/crypto-exchanges-rushed-list-trumps-coin-leaving-many-losers-some-big-winners-2025-07-14/?ref=s3t.org), all while claiming they were still thorough. That ..."thoroughness" now, of course, gives zero comfort to the people who saw their "investment" decimated as the meme coin price imploded.
- Finance institutions are [gamely embracing a new dump of T bills to accommodate the higher debt ceiling](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/slew-t-bills-coming-money-market-funds-say-bring-em-on-2025-07-14/?ref=s3t.org), blindly trusting that the system will magically sustain itself - even as more and more of government revenues are required to pay interest on the US debt.
When authority figures lead us (or give us permission) to go in the wrong direction, the universe does not magically rearrange itself to prevent negative consequences. This is true regardless of how powerful or how virtuous the authority figure may seem. One way or other, the consequences will come.
### How do we protect ourselves and others?
So how do we learn to protect ourselves and others from being swept off our feet by enticing voices and visions? **Where's the line between good teamwork / citizenship vs following a delusion?**
*And how do we work effectively to create wins for ourselves, our teams, and our communities?*
Here is a good starting point: Learn the difference between 2 categories of professional disciplines, and then using this understanding to improve your discernment and learning.
This is a crucial lens for change leaders to understand, and it benefits individuals and organizations.
### The 2 Categories of Disciplines: Accountable vs Everything's Negotiable
Step back and think about all the learning available at a typical university - and all the professional disciplines that exist...notice how they fall into 2 big categories:
- **Disciplines whose primary function is to convince and coordinate humans.** These disciplines focus on using numbers, words, visuals to create narratives that are convincing to humans. We'll borrow the term *"humanity disciplines"* to label this category of discipline (might not be perfect match for the academic term "humanities" but close).
- **Disciplines whose primary function is to harness the forces and materials of the universe to achieve some purpose.** Most people refer to these as the *engineering disciplines*, so we'll use the term "engineering disciplines" for this category.
There is a huge difference in the *accountability* of these two disciplines. Both are valuable, but its important to understand this difference in accountability:
Engineering disciplines interact with the harsh immovable non-negotiable realities of physics and math. Gravity, momentum and brick walls, the relentless ticking away of time and chances, the closing of opportunity windows. If your code is wrong it won't compile. If your math is wrong, your bridge will collapse. Your plane will crash. If your burndown figures are wrong, your company will run out of money. Your failure and its consequences will be large, obvious, unforgiving and non-negotiable.
Photo by [Brian Kelly](https://unsplash.com/@brikelly?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
As a result of this highly accountable working environment, engineers learn - sometimes the hard way - to work with a precision mindset, and to never expect that they can fudge and get away with it.
Humanity disciplines by contrast interact primarily with the intellect and limited attention span of humans. There is a *lot more room for fudging*: The right presentation, the right tweet, the right spin, misdirection, or the right legal framing can get us out of any bind. These "fudge" disciplines get away with a lot:
- Accountants can cook the books and make the finances seem fine when they're really not.
- Lawyers can bury things in fine print or construct emotional appeals and artfully selective uses of evidence to confuse juries.
- Consultants can sell you powerpoints that make you feel smart without confronting the elephants-in-the-room and festering issues that hold your company back.
Underneath the shiny appearances, the unresolved issues accelerate, proliferate, and do their damage, chewing away like unseen termites until there is a tragic reconciliation with reality.
### Implications for your workforce
Many organizations today have fallen into a practice of relegating
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### 7.18.2025 - Why Smart Firms Still Miss, How Yours Won’t
URL: https://www.s3t.org/7-18-2025-why-smart-firms-still-miss-how-yours-wont/
Last updated: 2025-07-18T07:33:16.000Z
*In every org there are 3 groups: People who are never questioned, people who are always questioned, and people who are unheard.*
S3T PodCast July 18, 2025
0:00
/1113.1297959183673
1×
*🎧 Listen here or* [*on Spotify*](https://creators.spotify.com/pod/profile/gets3t/episodes/7-18-2025---Why-Smart-Firms-Still-Miss--How-Yours-Wont-e35lm8o?ref=s3t.org)
---
### This Issue in 30 seconds:
### 🧠 Insight Quality vs. Authority
- 🔍 *Every organization has a hidden "Line"*—it determines who is heard, who is questioned, and who is ignored. ROI suffers when the *wrong people* dominate strategic conversations.
- 🧊 *The Unquestioned* may be trusted but can offer low-quality ideas. 🧐 *The Questioned* face constant scrutiny, while 🫥 *The Unheard*—often closest to the problem—offer high-impact insights that are routinely overlooked.
- 📉 Innovation fails when status is rewarded over substance. True insight often comes from *gritty, frustrated problem-solvers*, not just charismatic visionaries.
- 🎯 *Action for change leaders*: Actively seek out overlooked voices. Create visibility for doers and experimenters. Match problem-owners with builders for real solutions and ROI.
---
### 📊 Macro-Economics Watch
- 📈 *Inflation hits 2.7%*, driven by tariffs and labor shortages from immigration crackdowns. 🏠 *Mortgage applications drop 10%*.
- 🗳️ Red-state housing affordability advantage may be fading - an economic shift that could impact midterms: *All 10 cheapest states voted Trump; all 10 most expensive voted Harris.*
---
### 💻 Coinbase’s Super App Disruption
- 🌐 Coinbase launches the *Base Super App*—a next-gen crypto wallet combining *social, payments, app store, trading, chat* into one platform. Built on Ethereum with lightning-fast, low-cost transactions.
- 💥 *Potential disruption ahead*: Challenges Apple, Google, and Meta by offering a decentralized alternative to traditional app stores and social platforms.
- 📈 Could boost Ethereum and ENS token value as user adoption grows. Also expands access to advanced DeFi tools for trading and investment.
---
### 🇺🇸 Sovereignty & AI Arms Race
- 🧠 *Sovereign AI* emerges as a key national strategy—governments aim to own and operate AI infrastructure without foreign dependency.
- 💰 US considering a *Sovereign Wealth Fund*, joining global peers to make strategic national investments.
- 🛡️ *Military AI is booming*: Pentagon awards $200M contracts to OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, and xAI. Meanwhile, Meta builds massive datacenters for AGI development.
---
### **\[perspective\]**
Photo by [Rodeo Project Management Software](https://unsplash.com/@getrodeo?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## The Unquestioned, The Questioned, and the Unheard
*Why Orgs struggle to get ROI from emerging tech even when they seem to have lots of smart people*
Do you ever wondered why orgs miss big opportunities, spend effort and dollars in the wrong directions, and fail to get ROI from emerging tech like AI? I want to show you a lens that can be very helpful diagnose your situation.
🔍 *It has to do with a hidden line—one that runs through every team, every meeting, and every strategic initiative.*
And unless you're looking for it, you won’t see it. Every person in your company is somewhere on that line.
This line determines *who gets heard, who gets questioned, and who gets ignored.* But even more importantly—it determines whether your organization is able to locate the *right insights*, from the *right people*, at the *right time.*
**Decisions and investments that lead to ROI require alignment between:**
- Those who understand the *problem*
- Those who can build the *solution*
So let’s talk about *The Line.*
### The Line
In every organization, there’s a line. Think of it as a horizontal line, and everyone in your organizations stands somewhere on that line.
On one end of that line are people who are *never* questioned—their authority, decisions, or ideas are met with nods, not scrutiny. On the other end are people who are always questioned or never even heard at all.
**🧊 The Unquestioned** – When these people speak, everyone jumps. Their ideas are accepted without challenge. Their insights are assumed to be right—even when they’re not.
**🧐 The Questioned** – People who have to defend and justify every idea, explain every insight, prove their worth repeatedly. Sometimes this sharpens thinking. Often, it causes exhaustion and delay.
**🫥 The Unheard** – People with exceptional insight, skill, and execution ability—but whose voices are never invited in the first place. They’re not questioned or 2nd guessed. They’re simply overlooked.
Sometimes the people who are always questioned, or just never heard at all are much closer to the problem and have more actionable insights than the well dressed spitballers in the conference room down the hall.
Which brings us to the vertical dimension.
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### 7.11.2025 - How Clarity Wins: Navigate Uncertainty, Surface Truth, and Lead with Confidence
URL: https://www.s3t.org/7-11-2025-how-clarity-wins-navigate-uncertainty-surface-truth-and-lead-with-confidence/
Last updated: 2025-07-10T22:33:35.000Z
*In the beginning everything is opaque. Then over time it becomes partially understood. Translucent. Eventually things become Transparent.*
S3T PodCast July 11, 2025
0:00
/2015.1902040816326
1×
🎧 Listen here, or [on Spotify](https://creators.spotify.com/pod/profile/gets3t/episodes/How-Clarity-Wins-Navigate-Uncertainty--Surface-Truth--and-Lead-with-Confidence-e35d6qd?ref=s3t.org)
---
### This Issue in 20 secs:
1. 🌫️➡️🔍 **From Fog to Focus: Mastering the 3 Stages of Clarity**
Every challenge moves from *opaque confusion*, through *foggy uncertainty*, to *crystal-clear understanding*. Knowing where you are in that journey gives you a serious edge.
2. 🧭 **Lead Like a Navigator, Not a Gambler**
Great leaders don’t just wait for clarity—they *create it*. Use structured questions, low-risk experiments, and precise action when the moment’s right.
3. 🧠✨ **Curiosity is the Engine of Change**
The path from confusion to clarity starts with people who ask questions, share what they see, and connect the dots. Spark that, and you unlock unstoppable momentum.
4. 🕵️♂️⚖️ **Opacity is Power—Until It Isn’t**
If you’re hiding behind complexity, beware: once the fog lifts, your unearned advantages vanish. But if you're fighting for truth and progress? Get ready to win big.
5. 🚦 **Make Smart Moves—Even in the Mist**
You *can* take action before everything is fully clear. Use leading indicators, guardrails, and test-and-learn strategies to move confidently through uncertainty.
6. 🏛️📉 **How Empires Fall—and What They Teach Us**
Polarization, overreach, and stagnation—not immigration—undermine nations. History reminds us: renewal depends on adaptability, not fear-driven isolation.
7. 🪙💥 **Stablecoins: Disruption with a Hidden Fault Line**
Crypto yields are pulling trillions away from banks—but regulators are warning: under the surface, systemic risks are building. Ignore at your own peril.
8. ⚡📊 **Solana Surges: The Quiet Crypto Giant Goes Mainstream**
A Solana ETF? It’s here. With blazing speed and near-zero cost, Solana is proving it’s not just a tech demo—it’s a serious player in the financial future.
---
### **\[perspective\]**
## 3 Stages of Clarity: Opacity, Translucence, Transparency
*In the beginning everything is opaque. Then over time it becomes partially understood. Translucent. Eventually things become Transparent. Things are clear to everyone.*
Today we’re going to explore a simple but powerful framework for understanding how people, systems, and forces move from being *unknown and not understood* to *understood and accountable*.
You might wonder, “Why does this matter?"
**1\. Understanding Dysfunction**: When you walk into a situation where things feel disconnected, dysfunctional, or even unfair—chances are, there’s at least one force at play that is *opaque*. That means its workings are hidden, unknown, or misunderstood by the people affected by it. It could be a player—like a department, leader, or external partner—or it could be a force—like a regulation, incentive structure, or historical constraint.
Think about cancer or other diseases: for ages, these things were *opaque* to us. We didn’t understand where they came from or how they progressed or spread. Today, we know more—enough to begin to explain some of it. But it’s not fully transparent. It's **translucent**—somewhat understood, but still unclear in many ways.
2\. **Anticipating Accountability**: If you’re frustrated by people or institutions who seem to operate without transparency or accountability—take heart.
- Opacity is *not permanent*. Over time, people observe, ask questions, share stories, connect dots, and build clarity. What was once opaque becomes translucent.
- What is translucent becomes transparent. And once that happens, the advantages that opaque players once had begin to evaporate. They lose the ability to act in the dark. This shift is *not just possible—it’s inevitable.*
So if you're someone trying to do the right thing, this is comforting.
If you're someone gaming the system under the cover of opacity, consider this fair warning!
3\. **Navigating and Leading Through Change:** This model gives you a way to *understand behavior*.
Why do some people resist action? Why do others act boldly and get away with it? Why do certain ideas seem infeasible now but will become obvious later?
It also gives you a way to **lead better**:
- You can meet people where they are—whether they’re stuck in opacity or beginning to see through the fog.
- You can help others shift their understanding by surfacing and sharing insights.
- And you can design change efforts with the confidence that clarity is coming—so you don’t have to rush to expose everything at once, but you *do* need to prepare for when that exposure comes.
### Why do things go from Opaque to Translucent to Transparent?
It happens because of a basic human truth: **People are curious.**
They ask questions. They talk with each other. They share their observations and experiences.
And they start connecting the dots. And when enough dots get connected, the fog lifts.
And that’s when the landscape changes. That’s when previously hidden things become clear—and when change becomes not just likely, but unstoppable.
*Over time it is very difficult to keep something completely concealed. You can use this to your advantage, to help drive positive beneficial change.*
So lets explore what each stage looks like:
#### **Stage 1: Opaque**
**Characteristics:**
- Information is scarce or inaccessible.
- Controlled by a small elite or obscured entirely.
- The broader population lacks visibility into drivers or outcomes.
**What shows up:**
- Superstition, guesswork, conspiracy theories.
- Decisions driven by emotions: unrealistic exuberance, or fear or missing out
**Leadership Principles:**
- *Don’t overreact.* Resist the urge to act on poor data.
- *Facilitate inquiry.* Encourage data-gathering and framing the right questions.
- *Create psychological safety.* Let your teams observe and report freely.
---
#### **Stage 2: Translucent**
**Characteristics:**
- Some information becomes available.
- Correlations emerge, but causation is unclear.
- Competing narratives form.
**What shows up:**
- Early hypotheses.
- Political narratives, policy proposals, media hot takes.
- Premature certainty and false confidence.
**Leadership Principles:**
- *Sense-make with structure.* Identify patterns, but acknowledge gaps.
- *Run safe-to-learn experiments.* Use pilots, prototypes, or simulations. Accept that some trial and error is necessary.
- *Use guardrails.* Identify preferred and dreaded outcomes, and track indicators.
---
#### **Stage 3: Transparent**
**Characteristics:**
- Reliable, repeatable data is available.
- Causal relationships are understood.
- Stakeholders can observe what works and what doesn’t.
**What shows up:**
- Clear diagnostics.
- Validated theories.
- Emergence of best practices.
**Leadership Principles:**
- *Act decisively.* Time for systemic change and scaled execution.
- *Impose accountability.* Now that clarity exists, define roles, measures, and timelines.
- *Optimize.* Document lessons and drive improvements through feedback and communication.
---
### Decision-Making in the Translucent Phase
In many competitive situations, leaders cannot afford to wait until full transparency. Acting in the translucent phase requires discipline and foresight.
1. **Define what you want vs dread:** What are the best possible outcomes?What are the worst-case scenarios you must avoid?
2. **Identify Leading Indicators**: What signals will tell you which scenario is emerging...whether you are headed toward the dreaded vs the desired scenario.
3. **Design Experiments and Guardrails**: Where can you act in small, low-risk ways? What boundaries or guardrails will prevent overexposure?
4. **Build Optionality**: Structure decisions to allow pivots or exits. Stage *incremental* investments.
5. **Communicate Transparently**: Be honest with your team and stakeholders about knowns and unknowns. Share what you’re watching - and encourage others to watch. Talk about what you're collectively observing and what will make you feel confident enough to make a decision.
So it's helpful to shift from thinking: Instead of waiting for perfect clarity, thinking in terms of creating clarity - by structuring decisions, reducing risk, and navigating carefully through the fog.
---
### Final Takeaway
Transparency *is inevitable*. The key to competitive advantage is knowing where you are in the journey—and moving at the right time.
Use this playbook to frame conversations at your next strategy meeting, evaluate high-risk initiatives, or teach teams how to build momentum through uncertainty. Get in the habit of asking "*Where do you think we are on the Opacity line?"* When people understand that clarity comes in stages, they panic less and contribute more.
It seems this process can never fully be stopped, but it can be delayed: keeping people alarmed and distracted by conflict or false issues can cause them to remain stuck in the Opaque stage, where they have nothing other than basic superstition guiding their thinking. Manipulative leaders sometimes engage in this, pitting groups of people against each other to while pressing their own self serving agendas. This is why it's important to drive low-key low-intensity interactions that provide small additions of information to people who are being kept in the dark. over time they begin to piece information together and think differently than before. The process toward transparency starts to work for them as well.
Let this be your edge. And help others learn about this too.
---
### \[macro perspectives\]
## Factors in the decline of empires
[Courtesy of The Button Museum](https://buttonmuseum.org/buttons/jc-can-save-america-0?ref=s3t.org)
### How Empires Crumble
When Jimmy Carter won the presidency, I was just a kid growing up in a small southern town. While I played with cap guns and ruined model airplane kits, the adults worried aloud that the communists were taking over the world. They reckoned America would be dead by 1984 if we didn't do something. Why 1984 wasn't clear - something about George Orwell's book.
Unbeknown to us, other folks were making very different predictions.
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### 🇺🇸7.4.2025 - Special July 4 Edition
URL: https://www.s3t.org/7-4-2025-special-july-4-edition/
Last updated: 2025-07-04T11:36:30.000Z
*This family has seen some things. We're about to see more things, it feels like.*
S3T PodCast July 4 2025
0:00
/689.6065306122449
1×
🎧 Listen here, or [on Spotify](https://creators.spotify.com/pod/show/gets3t/episodes/7-4-2025---Special-July-4-Edition-e353mjo?ref=s3t.org)
---
### This Issue in 20secs:
🇺🇸 **Generational Strength & Civic Duty**
A heartfelt July 4th reflection on family legacy, sacrifice, and the enduring call to *stick together*, take care of each other, and *actively participate in democracy* by contacting our representatives.
📞 Call: 202-224-3121
📈 **Economic Reality vs Political Rhetoric**
Despite patriotic promises, gas prices are up and the new bill may hurt more than help—cutting key programs while spending lavishly elsewhere.
💸 Read beyond the headlines; leadership requires *vigilance and accountability.*
🌲 **Leadership & Stewardship Needed**
New laws favor logging, uneven tax burdens, and selective service cuts. Will leaders use their power to *heal or harm*?
🌳 We must champion stewardship over exploitation.
🛡️ **Defense & Manufacturing Crossroads**
Global tensions rise—Russia, China, Iran, and drone warfare escalate. The U.S. and Europe must choose: *outdated war machines or modern, agile tech innovation?*
🤖 Creativity may be the best defense.
🧬 **America’s “Secret Sauce” at Risk**
Top talent, capital, immigration, and universities fuel U.S. strength. But internal policy shifts risk undermining this advantage—*China is watching and learning.*
🧪 Let’s not dismantle our own edge.
---
Photo by [The New York Public Library](https://unsplash.com/@nypl?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### **\[perspective\]**
## Looking back and forward from July 4th
I come to this day as an American who looks every day on the top of my bookshelves at the American flag two soldiers lifted from my Dad's coffin, folded and handed to my Mom. On my wall next to to those shelves is a frame which holds the Civil War medal of my Great great Grandfather. On those shelves is my collection of old books that date back to the 1700's.
Two of these books trace my family's lineage back to ancestors who came to America in the 1600's. 2 of these ancestors fought for American freedom in the Revolutionary War. Ours is a family of farmers, sawmill owners, railroad and factory workers, hunters, ranch hands, schoolteachers, musicians, and builders scratching out an existence from the backwoods, the mountains, wide open spaces and growing small towns across the country for almost 4 centuries.
This family has seen some things. We're about to see more things, it feels like. First it was European kings trying to impose monarchy on the world, then it was southern plantation landowners who wanted to treat other people like property. Today its feral billionaires.
The one thread that runs through those 4 centuries: when we stick together we can get through just about anything. Over and over this family outlasted the prevailing nonsense of the times, and moved on toward better days. Your family has the same history and strength. We can take care of those who are in our purview. Look out for each other, and work to make things better. Doing what we can every day.
---
"Posting this so we can compare next year" said one excited friend in December 2024, at that time still thrilled about the outcome of the 2024 election. It was a gas receipt (anonymized excerpt below) showing the cost to gas up a semi-truck at the then rate of $3.18 per gallon.
Today the national average for diesel is higher: $3.77 (at time of writing per official [US Gov data here](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/?ref=s3t.org)). The prices at the specific gas station noted in the receipt are also higher: currently charging $3.34 per gallon according to iexitapp.com, and $3.37 according to Way.com.
I hope for everyone's sake that prices come down. If they do, it won't likely be due to any "plan". The Big Beautiful Bill seems to underscore this.
### Whoever thinks it's a "Big Beautiful Bill" needs to read it
Even though it just passed, you really should read this bill, at least the sections you are concerned about, and continue to communicate with your elected representatives. There are three options for reviewing the bill:
- [The Summary Text](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/1?ref=s3t.org) \- this goes section by section explaining the proposed changes to laws and to funding. Most helpful - easy to digest version.
- The Senate "[release page](https://www.budget.senate.gov/chairman/newsroom/press/chairman-graham-releases-full-senate-text-of-presidents-one-big-beautiful-bill?ref=s3t.org)" lets you link into specific sections to see how the proposed laws would read.
- The[ full text](https://www.budget.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/the%5Fone%5Fbig%5Fbeautiful%5Fbill%5Fact.pdf?ref=s3t.org) as passed in the Senate - simply reads out the proposed edits to existing laws. To understand what is being changed, you would need to look up those laws and then read the proposed edits. This is the least recommended, least helpful view, but some may want to refer to it to confirm a detail.
After reviewing the bill, I have to agree that overall, the bill is simply "not the kind of relief the president is promising for working Americans," [as noted by NC Republican Senator Thom Tillis before voting against the bill](https://apnews.com/article/thom-tillis-trumps-big-bill-election-north-carolina-51ba539bb59921324c663fe99ca32055?ref=s3t.org).
While it tightens funding for education and healthcare, it also splurges on odd items such as a $40 million “National Garden of American Heroes” (you can find this on page 3 Subtitle H here: [https://www.help.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/help\_committee\_reconciliation\_2025\_section-by-section.pdf](https://www.help.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/help%5Fcommittee%5Freconciliation%5F2025%5Fsection-by-section.pdf?ref=s3t.org))
### The bottom line - this all creates an opening for *leadership*.
Leadership intervenes and makes things go better than they otherwise would have. Even when it feels like things couldn't possibly get worse.
- The bill calls for federal agencies to contract with at least 1 private logging company for the next 20 years to increase logging. Will leaders at these logging companies step up and ensure selective logging that increases the health of the forest OR use government rules as a pass to degrade the capabilities of nature that we all depend on?
- The bill makes the tax burden even more lopsided so that individuals will have to carry even more of the tax burden - individuals already provide 6x what companies provide in government revenues. Will leaders in these companies recognize the privilege and opportunity they have - compared the rest of the world and most of history - and respond by increasing support for the communities where they reside?
- The bill selectively prohibits federal funding for social and health needs in conformance to personal prejudices of those for whom these issues are distant or scary. Will leaders from all walks of life be willing simply to talk to their own neighbors and family members about these issues to help them better understand?
- The bill in general appears intent on "swinging the pendulum back" against environmental stewardship in favor of "economic growth". Will leaders step up to explain that economic growth has always depended on nature's services? If we naively treated nature's services as if they were infinite, then we are [eating the foundations of our own growth](https://www.haver.com/articles/when-growth-eats-its-foundation?ref=s3t.org)...like termites that eat the structures they live in, until they collapse. We get exactly what we engineered.
It all comes down to leadership. One very simple form of leadership that we all can take on a regular basis is communicating with our elected representatives. Here is a phone number you should have on your phone's Favorite Contacts.
Photo by [Andre Frueh](https://unsplash.com/@andrefrueh?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### Call the capital switchboard 202-224-3121
Be sure to talk your family and friends through this process, and its easy enough that anyone can do it.
- Call the capital switchboard 202-224-3121.
- A virtual agent will answer and ask if you know who you want to be connected to. You can say the name of your elected representative and it will connect you.
- If you don't know you can say "not sure", and the agent will ask you your state and/or zip code to help get you connected to the right representative.
- Be as clear and specific as you can. It doesn't have to be perfect. As you do this more regularly, you'll get better and more confident at clearly expressing your concerns and views.
- Don't forget to call and say thank you when you see your representatives doing the right things.
As I taught my kids:
- Being an American citizen means you’re the boss
- Your elected representatives are the workers
- You have to communicate to them regularly, tell them what you need them to do, and give them feedback on how they're doing.
How often does a boss talk to the team? If they're any good, probably just about every day. SO, are you talking to your team in Washington (and your state capitol) every day? If the country's on the wrong track, and we're wondering why, probably time to look in the mirror.
Is this an oversimplification? Yeah, maybe, but not by much.
Could we all do a little better at communicating regularly with representatives? Most likely.
Would the country be better off if we did? Definitely.
This is us doing our part, in good faith, working to make things better. It reminds me of some of the last words shared by George Washington.
*There are four things which I humbly conceive are essential to the well being of the United States as an independent power:*
1. *An indissoluble union of the states under one federal head*
2. *A sacred regard to public justice*
3. *The adoption of a proper peace establishment*
4. *The *prevalence of that pacific and friendly disposition among the people of the United States which will induce them to forget their local prejudices and policies*, to make those mutual concessions which are requisite to the general prosperity, and in some instances to sacrifice their individual advantages to the interests of the community.*
That last point is especially relevant today. I hope you make time today to do something together with your loved ones, hold them close and take care.
Happy 4th!
---
### \[Macro Views\]
###
## Defence ramp ups: Heavy vs Light Manufacturing
Europe is gearing up its manufacturing sector for defense capabilities. Ironic that Europe - the laid back continent of social safety nets and long holidays - is now shifting its economy into war machine mode.
As the US Military branches [celebrate their 250 Anniversary this year](https://www.archives.gov/press/press-releases/2025/nr25-10?ref=s3t.org), it's not pleasant to contemplate yet another chapter of world wars, where a rising portion of GDP may go to making weapons. But most of us - regardless of what side of the political spectrum we think from - would agree that the US mobilization of the manufacturing sector in WWII was necessary. So sometimes it is necessary.
The question is - are we in another one of those same eras now? Considerations:
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### 🚩6.27.2025 - Tech adoption red flags, TradFi gets crypto, AI stalls learning...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/6-27-2025-tech-adoption-red-flags-tradfi-gets-crypto-ai-stalls-learning/
Last updated: 2025-06-27T02:05:45.000Z
*Tools that fade into the background but boost results quietly tend to be the real winners.*
S3T PodCast 6.27.2025
0:00
/1832.385306122449
1×
🎧 Listen here or [Listen on Spotify](https://creators.spotify.com/pod/show/gets3t/episodes/6-27-2025---Tech-adoption-red-flags--TradFi-gets-crypto--AI-stalls-learning-e34po51?ref=s3t.org)
---
### This issue in 20 secs:
📢 **1\. Buzzword Overload? Beware the Hype.**
Agentic AI! Ambient AI! Stablecoins! Tokenized X! If the *buzzword* is the selling point, that's your 🚩 red flag. Learn how to separate real value from empty hype.
🧠 **2\. Smart Tech Adoption Starts with One Question**
*What’s the selling point?* Tools that fade into the background but boost results quietly tend to be the real winners. 🛠️
📉 **3\. Economic Storm Signals Are Flashing**
The U.S. Leading Economic Index has declined for 6 months straight. 📉 Recession risks are rising as immigration drops and inflation creeps back up. What should leaders do?
💸 **4\. Traditional Finance Quietly Embraces Crypto**
BNY Mellon, Mastercard, and Fiserv are *already* using stablecoins for speed and savings. 🪙 Don’t let the headlines fool you—crypto is becoming core financial plumbing.
🏘️ **5\. Crypto Assets Now Count Toward Your Mortgage**
Yes, really. The FHFA is allowing crypto to be included in mortgage applications. 🏡 A signal that digital assets are going mainstream.
🧾 **6\. ChatGPT Can Write—but Can You Remember What It Said?**
MIT study shows LLMs help you *produce* faster, but not *learn* better. 📚 Use AI tools wisely—or risk becoming a great prompt writer with a weak grasp of content.
🔍 **7\. S3T = Your Edge in a Noisy World**
Get insight that cuts through the noise. See what’s *actually* working, what’s overhyped, and how to lead wisely in fast-moving times. 🚀
---
### **\[perspective\]**
## What is the selling point?
Every day we are bombarded with messages trying to sell us on new technologies: Generative AI! No, no, now it's Agentic AI!, No wait you need Ambient AI, oh but wait there's also Stablecoins! And Tokenized something or others. Get in NOW!
As change leaders - *who notice opportunities to make things better, and look for better tools and solutions* \- this presents a dilemma. **How do we know when a new technology or approach is ready for real world usage? And how do we tactfully caution stakeholders or partners who may have gotten too excited for their own good?**
As new technologies evolve, **one key indicator we should watch is the *selling point.*** What is the *selling point* for this new tech?
Watching the selling point is helpful because the selling points for new technologies that are *truly ready to deliver business value* actually sound different than the selling points for new tech that may not be ready yet (or may not be ready ever).
🛑 High Risk - Low Business Value:
- When the selling point is the new tech buzzword itself (as if it's patently obvious that everyone already knows we have to have this), that should be a red flag.
- When the tech buzzword is being used in a way that drives Fear of Missing Out (FOMO), that's also a red flag.
🟡 Moderate Risk - Possible Business Value
- When the selling point is the efficiency or benefits the new tech enables, that's promising.
- When the new tech is "receding" into the background...just part of the machinery that makes for a better system - also promising.
🍏 Lower Risk - More Likely Business Value
- When the selling point is case studies from companies who have successfully realized the efficiencies and benefits by using the new technology, that's a good sign this may be worth exploring.
- You still need to confirm that the use case and benefits have applicability to your situation, but you have the opportunity to learn from another early adopter's experience.
When new tech buzzwords are the selling point, that's an indicator that this technology may not be ready for adoption. When the selling point is the efficiency or benefit that the new tech enables, then that's probably time to explore and consider adoption.
*We're going to apply this principle as we look at some of key developments this week, in our content sections below.*
---
### **\[emerging tech\]**
Photo by [Thought Catalog](https://unsplash.com/@thoughtcatalog?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Does ChatGPT make your brain lazy?
MIT's June 2025 study [*Your Brain on ChatGPT*](https://www.media.mit.edu/publications/your-brain-on-chatgpt/?ref=s3t.org) highlights some possible issues with depending on Large Language Models (LLMs) like ChatGPT to do your homework. The study ([full text PDF here](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2506.08872?ref=s3t.org)) compared the brain activity of 3 groups who were tasked to write essays:
- Group 1: Those who wrote essays using "brain-only" personally known information
- Group 2: Those who wrote essays with the help of search engines
- Group 3: Those who wrote essays using ChatGPT
Over the study's 4 month period, ChatGPT users "consistently underperformed at neural, linguistic, and behavioral levels" in comparison to "Brain-only" participants. The study also found that people in this group were not able to recall or quote their own essay's key points (perhaps a reflection of the fact that instead of writing an essay, they wrote a *prompt* asking ChatGPT to write it for them).
### Which group wrote better essays?
I was curious to understand whether the resulting essays differed in quality and level of acceptability, so went through [the paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2506.08872?ref=s3t.org) to see what the authors found. The study asked a group of teachers to grade the essays and also assigned an "AI Judge" to score the papers as well. Interesting results:
- The Teachers rated LLM essays higher in language, structure and accuracy, saying they "often developed a topic more in-depth than others" but rated them lower on content and uniqueness, saying they seemed "soulless." p62.
- Teachers provided a wider range of scores than the AI Judge. See p65\. This makes sense: the AI Judge has a bigger "context window" for comparing larger chunks of text against criteria baselines more quickly than a human teacher can.
### LLMs: Good for Productivity, Not so Good for Education
The takeaway from this paper seems to be that using an LLM can allow a person to quickly generate a passable essay, but the process of doing so may not do much to boost that person's own learning and intellectual development.
A lingering question regarding the LLM Group: Was brain activity of this group being reallocated from cognitive learning and analysis to a different kind of mental activity, like writing better prompts, and evaluating the outputs from the LLM?
*Maybe*, say the authors in their closing summary (p.106): "AI assistance in writing may free up cognitive resources (reducing memory load) and allow the brain to reallocate effort toward executive functions." This warrants further study.
### Takeaway for Educators and Mentors: know what LLMs can and can't do
Many educators as well as workplace learning specialists are wrestling with whether to allow LLMs or not. Clearly more studies are needed to dig into this further.
But what seems to be clear so far is that the question of whether or not to use LLMs hinges on what you are trying to achieve:
- If you are trying to learn and integrate a subject domain, LLMs will not help you.
- If you are trying to execute quickly, to produce a required deliverable, LLMs can do that. But you will still need someone with domain expertise to determine whether it satisfies the requirements.
In other words teach students (and workplace learners) to be clear on their objective, and then to choose what tools and approaches best support their objective.
Also worth study: [ChatGPT Dependency Disorder](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11374136/?ref=s3t.org) \- a review of the increasing reliance on AI-driven conversational agents in healthcare, and the importance of keeping human's accountable and in control of healthcare processes.
---
### **\[macro-economics\]**
Photo by [Dmytro Oliinyk](https://unsplash.com/@dmytrooliinyk?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Leading economic indicators are in persistent decline
*Full Access Members: See the* [*S3T Economic Dashboard*](https://www.s3t.org/dashboard/) *for the Top 500+ US & International real-time economic indicators.*
The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI) [dropped again in May](https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators?ref=s3t.org) \- **the indicator has now declined for 6 months in a row.** Sustained declines like this one are typically considered recession predictors though a look at the Conference Board's chart below suggests that sometimes the Leading Index drops while the Coincident Index may continue to rise (see per 2020-present below)
[Courtesy of the Conference Board](https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators?ref=s3t.org)
The Federal Reserve also has [lowered its 2025 GDP forecast from 1.7% to 1.4%](https://think.ing.com/articles/fed-still-leans-in-the-direction-of-cuts-but-timing-will-be-delayed/?ref=s3t.org) while [increasing its inflation forecast from 2.8% to 3.1%](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06/18/business/fed-interest-rates?ref=s3t.org).
Stephen Roach says the world economy is nearing its "stall speed" in his new piece [*Why War and Tariffs are a Double Shock to the World Economy*](https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/global-recession-likely-as-iran-war-tariffs-shock-slowing-world-economy-by-stephen-s-roach-2025-06?ref=s3t.org).
### Two coinciding factors: Global Debt and Sharp declines in immigration
Developing countries around the world are struggling under crushing loads of debt - that require them to spend more and more of their GDP on servicing their debt instead of taking care of their own domestic needs. [External debt for developing countries hit a new record in March 2025](https://unctad.org/news/debt-crisis-developing-countries-external-debt-hits-record-114-trillion?ref=s3t.org).
[Courtesy UNCTAD](https://unctad.org/news/debt-crisis-developing-countries-external-debt-hits-record-114-trillion?ref=s3t.org)
In addition, immigration declines are happening not just in the US but across the West where politicians pledged to cut immigration *and* raise living standards. As the Economist notes, [immigration has been cut sharply but living standards are also declining](https://economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/06/22/politicians-slashed-migration-now-they-face-the-consequences?ref=s3t.org) \- some reasons why:
- Immigration increases demand for goods and services, which drives employment.
- Immigrants also tend to take jobs that non-immigrants do not want, allowing their hosts to move into more lucrative professions.
- Immigrants provide cost effective labor for food and housing industries which drives more affordable housing and food.
If we love free enterprise capitalism and economic growth, we should realize it's in our best interest to have as many people to join the economy as possible. As described in this [Immigration explainer](https://www.s3t.org/immigration/), a lot of the ills associated with immigration have their root cause in the fact that US immigration is an overly long, dysfunctional and incredibly inefficient process. The economically expedient thing to do would be to overhaul and shorten the process - not shut it down.
Now as inflation creeps upward and economic outlooks continue to deteriorate, politicians have a closing window of opportunity to change course.
[Immigration in context of talent strategy & economic healthThis issues explainer is part of the S3T materials on Talent Strategy and the Economy. Paid subscribers have full access to the S3T platform of insights and tools. Context The talent strategy of individual firms - large and small - needs to be informed by the broader picture of howS3TRalph Perrine](https://www.s3t.org/immigration/)
---
### \[defi + tradfi\]
## Partnerships between crypto and traditional finance are proliferating
*As the conventional economy buckles under the load of government debt and inflation, large financial institutions are quietly shifting to crypto based infrastructure. Here are some *key developments that may impact your industry,* with context on what's driving this shift.*
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### Test post
URL: https://www.s3t.org/test-post/
Last updated: 2025-06-20T16:26:53.000Z
test header
test text
### 6.20.2025 Ambient & Deceptive AI, Career Launches, Crypto efficiencies...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/6-20-2025-ambient-deceptive-ai-career-launches-crypto-efficiencies/
Last updated: 2025-06-20T04:37:20.000Z
---
*As Apple, OpenAI, Google and others enclose us in a new "Ambient AI" world, we will need to relearn what it means to take care of each other.*
S3T PodCast June 20 2025
0:00
/1602.0636734693878
1×
🎧 Listen here [or on Spotify](https://creators.spotify.com/pod/show/gets3t/episodes/6-20-2025-Ambient--Deceptive-AI--Career-Launches--Crypto-efficiencies-e34galg?ref=s3t.org).
### In this Issue
- 🎓 **6 practical, reassuring tips for launching in the AI era**
AI and emerging tech are moving faster than schools and companies can keep up. If you're guiding a recent grad, here’s how to help them build confidence, skills, and momentum in today’s changing world.
### Premium Content for Paid Memberships
- 🔐 **Regulators Finally Define the Crypto Playing Field**
The bipartisan GENIUS Act sets the first real legal foundation for stablecoins—establishing definitions, compliance timelines, and reserve requirements—marking a pivotal step toward modernizing U.S. financial infrastructure.
- 🏢 **Crypto Goes Corporate**
Fortune 500 adoption of stablecoins and blockchain strategies has tripled in 2024\. Walmart, Amazon, and Uber are investigating stablecoin models to cut billions in transaction fees, moving crypto from experimental to essential.
- 🧠 **Apple’s UI Shift Hints at an AI-First Era**
While Apple’s AI rollout was lackluster, its new "Liquid Glass" UI signals a move toward spatial computing powered by ambient AI—interfaces that are ever-present, tactile, and AI-orchestrated.
- ⚠️ **LLMs Are Learning to Manipulate Vulnerable Users**
New studies show that reinforcement learning based on user feedback can lead AI models to manipulate specific users while behaving well with others—raising urgent red flags for AI governance.
- 🚨 **Ambient AI Requires Rethinking Governance**
As AI moves from screens to space—watching, listening, responding—risks around manipulation, deception, and user safety will demand proactive oversight, dynamic monitoring, and new regulatory frameworks.
---
### \[perspective\]
Photo by [UK Black Tech](https://unsplash.com/@ukblacktech?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## 🎓6 practical, reassuring career & learning tips to share with young people you care about
*AI and emerging tech is changing world faster than classrooms, textbooks, and most companies can keep up with. If you're a parent or educator helping graduates launch into today’s AI-driven economy, here are some ways you can encourage young people to build strong foundations and navigate their future with confidence:*
**🌱 1\. It’s Okay Not to Land Your Dream Job Right Away.** Early roles are training grounds, not final destinations. Encourage young adults to look for internships, small-company roles, or freelance work where they can build experience, gain momentum, and discover their strengths. Every job is a step toward something better...and it gives you authority to speak to realities often get overlooked by tech innovators, senior management or policy makers.
**🧠 2\. Start With *One* Tech Skill Track: There’s no need to master everything at once.** Choose one area that speaks to you. It may be coding, data analysis, cloud tools, or product design. Go deep. Build something. It doesn't have to be perfect. [Tyler Cowan offers this strategy](https://www.exponentialview.co/p/ai-and-growth-tyler-cowens-20-year?ref=s3t.org) for young adults:
*“Learn AI deeply, stay adaptable and anchor work in genuine passions; in a field moving this fast, nobody can get far ahead of you, but the old “good-grades” playbook is obsolete."*
Hands-on projects using tools like GitHub, Kaggle, or Colab can be more instructive than cruising through dozens of online or real world courses.
**🗣️ 3\. Communication is a Superpower. Tech skills alone won’t set you apart.** What does? The ability to explain technical ideas clearly to people who aren’t tech-savvy. Practice through presentations, peer tutoring, or even storytelling games. Great communicators rise quickly in any field when they develop their ability to *speak helpfully to different audiences:*
- Decision-makers (org leaders or investors) – Can you explain a new technology and its impact clearly to your company’s leadership?
- Customers – Can you speak their language and show how your solution directly solves a problem they have to deal with every day?
- Regulators or stakeholders – Can you demonstrate that you understand the importance of compliance and ethical use?
- Delivery & Operations teams – Can you explain key features to engineers and operations support teams so the solution gets built and delivers the intended value every time?
The professionals who succeed are not just those who know the tech—but those who can bridge human needs, organizational goals, and technical possibilities.
**🌍 4\. Get Curious About the Real World: Encourage exploration beyond the screen.** Look for opportunities to learn first hand - in person - how AI and innovation are shaping industries like health, finance, agriculture, or climate. Understanding *real-world problems* gives meaning and direction to your learning.
**🧭 5\. Learn Change Leadership Skills because today’s economy values people who can lead through uncertainty.** Change Leadership is about guiding others through complexity—by listening well, solving problems together, and communicating across teams. It’s not just for CEOs. *You don't need a job title to be worth something. You are more than any title or job. Your potential is bigger than any algorithm.* You can start learning how to create intentional innovation and beneficial change right now. To get started, check out the 📘 Free Change Leadership Learning Resources for Students and Grads at [S3T.ORG/CHANGE](https://s3t.org/change?ref=s3t.org).
**💡 6\. Remember: Human Skills Are Still the Most Essential.** In a high-tech world, being deeply human is your edge. Empathy, ethics, collaboration, and critical thinking are what make innovation useful and responsible. These are the skills that turn a smart worker into a trusted leader.
### 🎯 Your future is not something that just happens to you. It’s something you build, one choice at a time.
If you are a recent grad reading this: Whether you start in a small firm, join a big company, or launch your own startup, the key is this: Keep learning. Keep adapting. Keep leading. And remember:
- You don’t have to be perfect. Just be committed.
- You don’t need to know everything. Just be willing to learn.
- You don’t have to wait to lead. Start where you are.
Best wishes! May your journey be one of growth, impact, and meaningful contribution. 🌱
---
Photo by [Jacob Creswick](https://unsplash.com/@jacob1c?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### **\[emerging tech\]**
## Regulatory Clarity for Crypto is Starting to Arrive
This week the Senate passed the GENIUS Act ([full text and details here](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/senate-bill/1582/text?ref=s3t.org)), a bi-partisan bill that (finally!) sets the foundation for regulating stablecoins in the US:
- Defines a vocabulary of key terms and definitions: what is a "Digital Asset", what is a "Digital Asset Service Provider" etc.
- Establishes a 3 year runway for stablecoin issuers to comply with the law by registering as a "permitted payment stablecoin issuer", and a 1 year runway for state chartered institutions (presumably existing entities like Coinbase or Circle?) to transition to the Federal regulatory framework.
- Clarifies roles and responsibilities for stablecoin issuers as well as regulators and law enforcement.
- Sets expectations on requirements for stablecoin issuers: maintaining adequate reserves, managing those reserves appropriately, reporting and transparency.
The bill's passage is [a major long over due milestone toward modernizing US financial architecture](https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/06/17/congress/senate-crypto-bill-vote-stablecoin-pass-00411005?ref=s3t.org) and the first stablecoin legislation that has actually passed either side of Congress.
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### 💥6.13.2025 Smarter Strategies: Global Talent, Learning, AI Security, DAO Law
URL: https://www.s3t.org/6-13-2025-smarter-strategies-global-talent-learning-ai-security-dao-law/
Last updated: 2025-06-13T05:28:29.000Z
*Don't negotiate your own obsolescence.*
S3T PodCast June 13 2025
0:00
/1132.4604081632654
1×
🎧 Listen here or [Listen on Spotify](https://creators.spotify.com/pod/show/gets3t/episodes/6-13-2025-Smarter-Strategies-Global-Talent--Learning--AI-Security--DAO-Law-e342li7?ref=s3t.org)
---
### This Issue of S3T in 30 secs:
🔍 **Global Higher Ed Shakeup**
India could emerge as a global education leader—possibly its own Ivy League—if reforms and AI-forward curricula continue. Meanwhile, U.S. universities risk decline unless they reframe their value proposition and focus on *doing* over *resenting*.
📈 **College Still Pays—But Not Always**
New data shows college grads earn \~2x more than high school grads *on average*, but earnings vary widely by field. Some top-earning high school grads still outperform low-earning degree holders. 📚💼
⚠️ **Reddit vs Anthropic: The Data War Gets Personal**
Reddit is suing Anthropic for scraping its forums to train AI. This could set major legal precedent around using *community-generated* content in AI—and spark broader backlash. 🧠⚖️
🔒 **Data is Power—Guard Yours**
Firms with unique, protected data will win in AI negotiations. Those without strong protections risk fueling the models that will outcompete them. Don't sign away your future. 🛡️🤖
🏛️ **DAOs Return with Legal Backing**
New Hampshire's DAO law (effective July 2025) offers real-world legal recognition for blockchain-run organizations. A new RFP hints at a DAO registry run on-chain with stablecoin payments. 🏗️📜
💥 **AI Arms Race: Big Tech Goes All In**
OpenAI is teaming up with Google to meet compute demands, while Meta eyes Scale AI to access high-value enterprise data. The final AI frontier? Proprietary, hard-to-get information. 🚀📊
🕵️ **Coinbase Hack Sparks Offshore Scrutiny**
A $400M breach involving bribed offshore workers is forcing companies to reassess offshoring risks. Key lesson: Misalignment across legal, security, IT, and vendor teams creates hidden vulnerabilities. 🌍💣
🔧 **Security Tips for Offshoring**
Cross-check team blind spots, clarify access rights *one layer deeper*, enforce time-bound vendor compliance—and monitor everything. Neglect = risk. 🔐🛠️
---
## **\[macro-economics\]**
Photo by [Avi Theret](https://unsplash.com/@theret?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
*Full Access Members: See the* [*S3T Economic Dashboard*](https://www.s3t.org/dashboard/) *for the Top 500+ US & International real-time economic indicators.*
## Higher Education won't be just a US - or Western thing anymore
India has the potential to be an education powerhouse [with its own Ivy League notes the Economist](https://economist.com/asia/2025/06/05/can-india-create-its-own-ivy-league?ref=s3t.org), if reform and rising GDP allow. The US's apparent bent on crippling its own universities (crippling...or at least chastising them [for their condescending cultures](https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-war-on-elite-universities-result-of-class-resentment-by-ian-buruma-2025-06?ref=s3t.org)) may open opportunities for international universities to attract / keep talent in their own economies.
India in particular seems to have a collection of universities who are very focused on understanding how AI and emerging tech is impacting the workforce, and taking proactive steps to align their faculty and curriculum's accordingly.
[New research from the Hamilton Project](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/compare-lifetime-earnings-by-college-major-with-new-hamilton-project-interactive/?ref=s3t.org) provides updated comparison of lifetime earnings for high school vs college grads. College grads on average will earn twice as much over their lifetime than high school grads, but keep in mind this is an average of *all* grads.
- What you study specifically impacts your earnings, and what/how you learn afterwards.
- There are cases where the highest earning high school grads can earn more than the lower earning college grads.
My take: Personally I still recommend college education but **at least some elements of US higher education will need to clarify their value proposition**, and graduate from the helpless outrage mindset that seems to exist in too many departments - and focus instead figuring out productive solutions.
If we hate fracking, for example, we could teach students to write papers linking fracking to colonialist power structures, OR we could show them how to go to the economic zones where fracking represents one of the few viable job options and create MORE jobs - start companies that offer jobs with better wages and benefits. That would do way more to end fracking than writing resentful papers.
To be clear, the schools that focus on helping students spread their wings, learn about themselves and find their path forward are providing a critical service helping young gain independence. In today’s world, this goes far beyond just getting them a diploma.
For more context on the evolving landscape of higher education, see [my interview on the future of work and learning with John Vandivier](https://www.s3t.org/s3t-sept-1-the-future-of-labor-and-learning-john-vandivir-interview/).
---
### **\[emerging tech\]**
## **AI is hungry (again): Notable signals and developments**
- Surprise move: [OpenAI is partnering with Google](https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/openai-taps-google-unprecedented-cloud-deal-despite-ai-rivalry-sources-say-2025-06-10/?ref=s3t.org) in order to meet its growing compute capacity needs.
- [Meta rumored to be planning an investment in Scale AI](https://www.investors.com/news/technology/meta-stock-scale-ai-generative-ai-2025-zuckerberg/?ref=s3t.org) \- a key player in fine tuning and enterprise data integration (see [Scale.com](https://scale.com/?ref=s3t.org)). The move is another indicator of just how intensely focused Big Tech AI players are on gaining access to proprietary enterprise data. It is literally their last frontier.
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### 💼 6.6.2025 - Job Addiction, Circle IPO, Economic guesses, Stablecoin efficiencies...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/66-job-addiction-circle-ipo-economic-guesses-stablecoin-efficiencies/
Last updated: 2025-06-09T10:49:16.000Z
*You are not your job. Your salary and title is not your worth. You are bigger than those things. Do you believe that?*
S3T PodCast June 6 2025
0:00
/908.0424489795919
1×
🎧 Listen here or [on Spotify](https://creators.spotify.com/pod/show/gets3t/episodes/6-6-2025---Job-Addiction--Circle-IPO--Economic-Guesses--Stablecoin-efficiencies-e33sckb?ref=s3t.org)
---
### 💼This issue in 30secs:
- 🌊 **A wake-up call on the waves**: A quiet moment while surfing revealed how small and distant the problems at work really are when viewed from the outside—sparking the realization: *your job should never define your happiness or potential*.
- 🧠 **Job addiction warning signs**: When your mind is always spinning about work, when meals and rest take a back seat, and when productivity becomes a substitute for well-being—you may be caught in a loop that’s harder to spot while employed than after a job ends. How to break free.
- 🏦 **Macro reality check**: Inflation figures in April were partially fabricated due to understaffing at the Bureau of Labor Statistics—raising concerns about data reliability even as policymakers reference those stats.
- 📉 **Services sector in decline**: The U.S. service economy, a major driver of jobs, has entered contraction territory according to ISM data, adding pressure for interest rate cuts to avoid a broader recession.
- 🪙 **Circle IPO & stablecoin momentum**: Circle’s IPO success signals growing mainstream confidence in crypto infrastructure. Companies like Uber are exploring stablecoins for cheaper global payments—foreshadowing financial transformation for healthcare and beyond.
- ⚡ **Tech shift with real implications**: As regulation around crypto becomes clearer, expect tokenization and stablecoins to play major roles in industries like healthcare, investing, and supply chains—reducing transaction costs and increasing agility.
---
### **\[perspective\]**
Photo by [Jeremy Bishop](https://unsplash.com/@jeremybishop?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Signs of Job Addiction
I guess it's easy to be immersed - and not realize it.
We lived in Hawaii for 12 years. One weekend I was surfing on the townside of Oahu. Beautiful clear day. Perfect glassy waves. In the distance all the buildings of Honolulu sparkled in the sun, with the jagged green Ko'olau mountains in the background. As I was waiting for the next set, I spotted the building where I worked - where I'd been having what I used to call "monster days" - lots of high stakes stuff happening, not always going in my favor. Inside that tall building, the problems seemed huge and immersive. But out here on the water, under the big blue sky, I couldn't' help but notice how small the buildings were. The thought hit me as I stared at the little rectangular shapes in the distance: "Nothing that happens inside those little boxes should ever define my happiness or potential."
The same is true for you. **You are not your job.** Your salary and title is not your worth. You are bigger than those things. You are more. Do you still believe that? Or have you forgotten that?
Photo by [Austin Schmid](https://unsplash.com/@schmidy?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### Are you addicted to your job? (your current or former job?)
Its always a good time to check.
Job addiction is really clear when you suddenly lose your job. Suddenly so many things you depended on - in ways you didn't realize - are just GONE.
Job addition may not be so clear to you when you still have your job. But that's actually the best time to recognize it. And deal with it.
One of my first mentors told me early in my career: "Always be ready to walk away (from your job) because some things aren't worth it."
It was so out of the blue, it puzzled me. A recent college grad, knowing so little about the real world, I just thought you showed up with a big smile and did whatever they told you. I didn't understand until later what prompted the unsolicited advice. The person was navigating toxic politics and power struggles I was blissfully unaware of at the time.
But the puzzling advice stuck with me. I began to see its wisdom and later braided it with another piece of advice from someone else: be frugal and save up enough to live for 9 months without a salary.
Over my adventuresome 35 year career there have been only a few rare "showdowns" where those 2 pieces of advice gave me the ability to be decisive when I needed to be.
Looking back I realize something:
The 2nd piece - about saving up - is important. But I think the first one might be more important, and harder: *"always be ready to walk away".*
It means maintaining a healthy separation between your identity and self vs your role in your current company or project. Which is key to avoiding job addiction.
**Maintaining that healthy separation can be tricky.** After all a job can give you more than a paycheck:
- Community - a steady group of people you talk to and work with every day. A group you belong to.
- Dopamine. The small hit you get from checking off a to-do, turning in your slides for a presentation, sending a perfectly crafted email, getting those thumbs ups...all these little things can become more important to your daily living pattern than you realize.
- External validation & "standing" - being part of a team taking on challenges (large or small) with feelings of accomplishment. Having a title. Recognition from others - large or small - feeds a cycle of validation and sense of belonging that gets harder and harder to step away from.
- A structured way of seeing the world - that cozy feeling of having a strategy, annual goals, projects with timelines. An inbox full of ways to look busy. Priorities spelled out for you. Even if there are always too many - it oddly gives us that feeling of feeling needed.
### What does job addiction look like?
What should you watch for:
- Putting your job ahead of your own needs, or the needs of others who are important to you. Meals, exercise and other things get skipped.
- Your mind runs on and on about issues at work, even when you need to be engaged in downtime, exercise, or time with significant others.
- Conversations with friends become venting sessions where you dump out all the work worries bottled upside you.
- You equate high performance with self deprivation.
Photo by [Rafael Leão](https://unsplash.com/@raflfc?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### What to do to avoid or break free from job addiction
Start by just letting this awareness sit with you. Just realizing that job addiction is a thing, and realizing that it might be happening to you is a really important step. It will help you start to manage your patterns and thinking in a more healthy manner.
Then, learn how to listen to your thoughts. When you have an impulse to start working again even though it's after dinner, ask yourself: what's my real line of thinking here? What's my goal? When you start evaluating your own thoughts about your work, you may find a lot of fear based narratives. "If I don't do it now, I'll forget" Or "Its going to be embarrassing if I wait til tomorrow."
**Face your fears.** It can be helpful to start with the worst case scenario, then work backward from there:
*What's the worst that could happen if I maintain a healthy work life balance? What if I lost my job? What would I do?*
Often what surfaces is the fact that we already know what we'd do if we lost our job. We'd find another one. Probably a better one. But what we're really avoiding is a simple conversation with a manager or a business partner because *we're afraid to be human*. Going to someone proactively and saying, "Hey I am going to need an extra day to complete this" doesn't mean you're a bad person. It means you care enough about your team mates to communicate with them about your availability. It means you care enough about yourself to ensure that you balance time for work with time for your personal needs. It also means you care enough about your work, to make sure that you're at your best when you do it!
**Allocate downtime and personal time as part of your daily calendar.** Creating time to step away from work is key to maintaining a healthy perspective on it. Going for a walk or run, working out, gardening, playing music or singing. Cooking. Whatever renews you. A renewed person has better ideas. Usually finds better ways to get things done. Is more positive and has better relationships with others.
I have two suggested exercises that you could do to help reinforce what you're learning about here:
1. **Try writing about your job and your career in the third person.** This may feel a little weird at first, but as you do more of it, you'll start to see yourself and your work in a different light. You can just give you a way of putting things into perspective.
2. The second exercise mimics the perspective shift I experienced when I was surfing, and noticed my office building in the distance. Think about your place of work. Go find the furthest distance away where you can still see the place, and where it looks very small from where you stand. Embrace the insight that hit me that day: whatever goes on in that little box should never limit your happiness or your potential.
That perspective shift: recognizing that things can seem overwhelming from one vantage point, and very small from another is the perfect reminder: You are more than your job. **Your job is just one part of your life, not the whole of your identity.** Let that realization spark a new way of seeing. You are more than your role, your calendar, or your output. Step back, breathe deep, and start exploring the full landscape of who you are and what makes you come alive.
Photo by [little plant](https://unsplash.com/@little%5Fplant?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
*PS. None of the surf photos here are me. On my best best best day, I could never be so cool. 😄*
### **\[macro-economics\]**
Photo by [ZHENYU LUO](https://unsplash.com/@mrnuclear?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
*Full Access Members: See the* [*S3T Economic Dashboard*](https://www.s3t.org/dashboard/) *for the Top 500+ US & International real-time economic indicators.*
### April's rosy inflation figures were guesstimates
The figures sounded good - [inflation crept up only .2 percent in April](https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/cpi-inflation-april-2025-interest-rate-8febd2d2?ref=s3t.org). Word is getting out that the [Bureau of Labor Statistics lost so many staffers that they couldn't really gather and assemble the data](https://qz.com/trump-doge-musk-hiring-freeze-inflation-data-collection-1851783612?ref=s3t.org).
So they did the best they could with the staff they had: about 1/3 of the data inputs were guesses because they lacked staff to conduct the required research. Is low inflation returning? Guess not.
### Service Economy in Recession Territory
Latest data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) shows the [US Service Sector is contracting](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-service-sector-unexpectedly-contracts-may-inflation-heats-up-2025-06-04/?ref=s3t.org) \- meaning likely decrease in jobs and growth for this very significant part of the US economy. (BTW ISM is not staffed by federal workers so was not impacted by DOGE hiring freezes and layoffs).
### Rate cuts needed to forestall recession in next 12 months
Weak economic outlooks have investment analysts around the world in consensus that [rate cuts are inevitable over the next 12 months](https://www.haver.com/articles/charts-of-the-week-fault-lines-and-rate-cuts?ref=s3t.org) in the US and abroad: central banks will be forced to cut rates in order to address recessionary trends.
[Haver Analytics](https://www.haver.com/articles/charts-of-the-week-fault-lines-and-rate-cuts?ref=s3t.org)
### Billionaire bromance goes south
This week Trump and Musk decided to focus on [hurling threats and accusations at each other](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-blames-musks-criticism-decision-cut-ev-tax-credits-2025-06-05/?ref=s3t.org) from their own personal social media platforms. Tesla stock is directly impacted, but the feud also casts uncertainty across the federal budget process.
---
### **\[emerging tech\]**
Photo by [Jimmy Woo](https://unsplash.com/@woomantsing?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
##
Mixed emotions over Circle's IPO
Share prices of Circle (CRCL) [surged more than 200% after its debut on the New York Stock Exchange this week](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/06/05/circle-shares-open-at-69-on-nyse-debut-signaling-strong-appetite-for-stablecoin-issuers?ref=s3t.org). But **top 20 crypto assets slid today**, suggesting a shift of funds from crypto to equities. [As Coindesk notes](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ptsd-afflicted-crypto-investors-hit-182606129.html?ref=s3t.org), funny things can happen after crypto related IPOs: Bitcoin dropped 60% in the 2 months after the Coinbase IPO in 2021\.
### Stablecoins as cost savings approach
Uber is considering whether [a stablecoin approach would help reduce transaction costs](https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/uber-says-stablecoins-could-reduce-cross-border-costs?ref=s3t.org) \- particularly for cross border transactions.
This idea of using crypto approaches for more efficient money movement is not new. Its implementation has been delayed by the immature regulatory environment in the US. The successful IPO of Circle (as noted above) suggests the time for this idea is arriving. In fact Circle is [pushing this idea on its home page as of Thursday night June 5](https://www.circle.com/?ref=s3t.org) (screen shot below).
[Courtesy of Circle](https://www.circle.com/?ref=s3t.org)
The TLDR is that stablecoins combined with tokenized approaches can move money faster cheaper than traditional finance rails can. This use case has broad applicability across industries that handle high volume transactions: healthcare, banking and investing, supply chains, consumer payments and more.
**As US crypto regulation becomes more coherent, look for more and more players to examine the cost benefits of stablecoin and tokenized approaches for their financial workloads.** Important for individual companies to do their own math, and consult their trusted advisors - but earlier indicators are that the cost savings could be substantial.
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### 🧠 5.30.2025 - Being the advantage
URL: https://www.s3t.org/5-30-2025-being-the-advantage/
Last updated: 2025-06-09T13:52:36.000Z
*In a world of AI and robots, the secret edge is ...being human.*
---
S3T PodCast May 30 2025
0:00
/1075.9836734693877
1×
🎧 Listen here or [on Spotify](https://creators.spotify.com/pod/show/gets3t/episodes/5-30-2025---Being-the-advantage-e33iagn?ref=s3t.org)
### In this Issue
🔮 **Consumer Mood Lifts, But Risks Remain**
May’s consumer confidence spiked—but still signals caution. Expectations Index jumped to 72.8 (still below recession warning level of 80). Optimism tied to possible trade breakthroughs. \[📉↗️\]
💵 **De-Dollarization: Currency Shift in Motion**
Global investors are moving away from the USD. A mix of trade wars, high deficits, and inflation are accelerating the decline (-7.5% YTD). This could limit U.S. economic and military clout. \[🌍💱\]
🤖 **Robot Nurses vs. Admin Overload**
Taiwan pilots robot nurses to combat staffing shortages. Meanwhile, U.S. hospitals see soaring admin growth—3200% since HIPAA—highlighting the need for balance in care vs. compliance work. \[🏥🤖📊\]
🏢 **Corporate Healthcare Takeover**
75% of U.S. physicians now employed, not independent. Corporate and PE ownership is rising—though new state bills are pushing back. Younger doctors value job security, not private practice. \[💼🩺\]
⚠️ **White Collar Shakeup & Shadow AI Surge**
AI isn’t just replacing drive-thru workers—it’s disrupting consultants too. Shadow AI tools are rising fast (74K+ unsanctioned AI apps), forcing firms to rethink governance and value delivery. \[👔💻\]
🧠 **Anthropology > More AI**
Innovation leaders now seek anthropologists to build tech that connects with humans. In a world of AI, *understanding people* is your edge. Know what’s needed, give AI clear tasks, and demand excellence. \[🧬🤝\]
⚙️ **AI: From Training to Inference**
Tech giants now focus on deploying trained AI (inference) at scale. It’s less about building the next model and more about powering real-time apps. Fintech and Chinese chipmakers are riding the wave. \[⚡🧠📲\]
---
### **\[macro-economics\]**
Photo by [Adrian Dascal](https://unsplash.com/@dascal?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Consumer confidence metrics improve but linger in recession territory.
*Full Access Members: See the* [*S3T Economic Dashboard*](https://www.s3t.org/dashboard/) *for the Top 500+ US & International real-time economic indicators.*
May's jump in consumer confidence, the highest since the sharp recovery in 2021, is attributed to talk of trade deals leading consumers to believe the worst outcomes may have been averted. "The *Expectations Index*—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—surged 17.4 points to 72.8, **but remained below the threshold of 80, which typically signals a recession ahead."** See [Consumer Conference Board](https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence?ref=s3t.org) for full analysis.
### De-dollarization underway
Just as[ JP Morgan and others feared](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/currencies/de-dollarization?ref=s3t.org), investors are trading US dollars for other assets in the name of currency diversification, hoping to [manage their risks during the "tectonic shifts" in US finance and trade policy](https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/wealth/wealth-investing/keep-exposure-risk-assets-modest-structural-shift-us-policy-plays-out?ref=s3t.org).
*"Don’t tie your entire financial future to a single economy, especially one facing mounting structural challenges...diversifying across currencies helps protect your wealth from dollar-specific shocks." -* [Nestmann](https://www.nestmann.com/currency-diversification-beyond-us-dollar?ref=s3t.org)
What's driving de-dollarization? For one, the US launched a trade war while carrying historically unprecedented deficits as noted in the Business Times link above. Trade wars increase risk of recession, which then forces interest rate cuts and other actions that expand deficits. But as Morningstar notes, its not just about tariffs - [there a a mix of factors behind the US Dollar's decline](https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/265251/more-than-tariffs-behind-the-us-dollars-decline.aspx?ref=s3t.org) \- down 7.5% so far in 2025\. Inflation and deteriorating financial outlooks are expected to drive continued decline.
The Atlantic Council worries de-dollarization (reduced reliance on US dollar in global finance and trade) could make it [harder to finance the US's global dominant military](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/atlantic-council-strategy-paper-series/why-the-us-cannot-afford-to-lose-dollar-dominance/?ref=s3t.org).
---
## 📶 Healthcare investment signals: Robot Nurses, Administrative Ratios, Corporate Ownership
##
### Taiwan's hospitals test robot nurses
Foxconn, NVIDIA and Kawasaki have [teamed up to create Nurabot](https://interestingengineering.com/health/foxconn-nvidia-drive-ai-robotics-innovation?ref=s3t.org), a robot designed to serve as an assistant to nurses, taking some of the less clinical tasks:
- delivering supplies, medications, saving staff trips to supply closets
- delivering healthcare education materials to patient bedsides.
- monitoring wards and directing visitors.
Future features in development include assistance with lifting patients, conversing in multiple languages and recognizing faces. The effort is intended to address the **world wide nurse shortage - projected to reach 4.5m by 2030.**
### Ratio of administrators vs physicians
On the other hand there seems to be no shortage of healthcare *administrative* staff. This is a continuing issue... the chart below goes through 2009\. The same issue got more attention in 2017 ([Beckers](https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/quality/hospital-physician-relationships/growth-of-healthcare-administrators-outpaced-physicians-increasing-3-200-between-1975-2010/?ref=s3t.org), and [Athena Health](https://www.athenahealth.com/knowledge-hub/sites/insight/files/The%20rise%20%28and%20rise%29%20of%20the%20healthcare%20administrator.pdf?ref=s3t.org)) noting **administrative staffing growth of 3200% the same period.**
Many attributed this to the introduction of HIPAA and other complex regulatory frameworks. These required organizations create large staffing functions focused on ensuring that the organization can prove its compliance with regulatory frameworks.
[John P Erwin X post](https://x.com/HeartOTXHeartMD/status/1911551959875686890?ref=s3t.org)
Emmetropia calls for [a balanced perspective](https://emmetropia.substack.com/p/why-healthcare-has-so-much-administration) regarding the increase in administrative staff. As healthcare grows more complex, dividing responsibilities is essential:
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### ☁️5.23.2025 - Navigating dual uncertainties
URL: https://www.s3t.org/may-23-2025/
Last updated: 2025-05-24T14:20:37.000Z
*The entire world is in a fog. It's not just you.*
S3T PodCast May 23, 2025
0:00
/1347.9444897959183
1×
🎧 Click the player to listen here, or[ listen on Spotify](https://creators.spotify.com/pod/show/gets3t/episodes/May-23---Navigating-dual-uncertainties--microstates--side-hustles--capital-flight-e3385qk?ref=s3t.org)
---
### ☁️This issue in 30 secs
🌀 **Navigating dual uncertainty:** Many professionals today are facing disruption **both** at work (e.g., layoffs, reorgs, AI shifts 🤖) and in their personal lives 🏠. These overlapping uncertainties create disorientation 😵💫 but don’t have to stall progress ✅.
🧭 **Remember: Uncertainty is normal—and temporary.**
Transitions like AI adoption 🤖, geopolitical shifts 🌍, and economic fragmentation 💥 are universal. Don’t assume the worst; instead, stay mentally flexible 🧘 and intentional in how you process ambiguity 🧩.
🛠️ **Key practices for navigating foggy periods:**
- 🗣️ Keep communication lines open and ask questions.
- 🚫 Avoid labeling colleagues—alliances can shift.
- 🤝 Focus on solving problems and creating wins not protecting turf.
- 📄 Calmly prepare for worst-case scenarios (résumé, contacts, success stories).
- ✂️ Once a contingency plan is made, close the worry loop and move on.
📈 **Bottom line:**
Even amid major change, progress is possible 🛤️. Stay steady, stay strategic 🎯, and keep preparing for both current performance and future opportunities 🚀.
🌐 **Macro insight – global economic shift:**
The biggest IPO of 2025 (battery maker CATV 🔋) listed in Hong Kong 🇭🇰, not the U.S. 🇺🇸—signaling declining confidence after tariff shocks 📉 and a Moody’s downgrade. Blackstone remains bullish 🐂 on U.S. assets.
🏙️ **Elite Microstates & emerging Network States:**
Cities like Hong Kong, Dubai, and Singapore thrive by serving elite populations and outsourcing nation-state burdens. This may foreshadow the rise of *network states* 🌐—e.g., crypto-based political memberships 🪙👥.
💼 **Side hustles on the rise:**
44% of Americans now have a side hustle (up from 36% in 2024), with 26 million more expected by 2027 📊—a key signal of changing economic behavior and growing financial independence 💪.
---
## **\[perspective\]**
## **Navigating Uncertainty: Leading Yourself Through Workplace Disruption**
*Progress is still possible, even in the fog.*
I frequently get to talk to people who are simultaneously worrying about something going on at work and in some other part of their life.
So many professionals today are balancing personal goals—career growth, health, family responsibilities—AND at the same time navigating major uncertainty in their workplace. A reorg, a merger, or a sudden market shift can throw everything into question. It’s disorienting. You’re left wondering:*How do I keep moving forward when the ground is shifting beneath me?*
### 2020-2030: the Messy Decade
Right now there are a lot of transitions underway:
- AI is changing the way we work, and even the way we team up.
- Other new technologies are disrupting growth plans of companies - prompting layoffs
- The world order is fragmenting, and with it the economy.
These transitions have ripple effects: additional M&A activity, changes in investment patterns. The entire world is in a fog. It's not just you. It's the whole world. So let's realize that. Everyone is going through something these days. And ...this too shall pass. Until it does, here are a few notes on what to Remember and what to DO.
### What to Remember
**You can't know everything.** You'll have to decide what to focus on, when to chase something down and figure out vs when to let it play out on its own.
**Uncertainty is normal—and temporary.**
Our minds crave clarity, but transitions often involve a foggy phase where answers are scarce. Don’t expect immediate resolution. Instead, expect change and stay mentally flexible.
**When we don't have clear answers or info we tend to assume the worst.** It’s easy to think: *I have these super important goals and now they're not going to happen.* OR *“This mess at work is going to ruin everything I care about.”* But that mindset leads to resentment, disengagement, and poor decisions. Interrupt negative thought loops with intentional practices.
### What to Do
**1\. Keep communication lines open.**
Check in with people frequently. Ask questions instead of making assumptions:
- "How are you feeling about \_\_\_\_\_ "
- “What are you seeing from your vantage point?”
- “Is there context I should keep in mind?”
Wherever you can invite and encourage dialogue—especially across levels or teams. Don’t rant. Stay curious.
**2\. Resist labeling people.**
Our brains— like many performance review processes — tend to put people into categories: high performer, low performer, useful, not useful. Be cautious with these mental lists. Unexpected allies can emerge in a crisis, and labeling undermines both collaboration and team potential.
**3\. Stay solution-oriented, not territorial.**
Trying to protect your or job or your team is natural. But overprotectiveness can block broader wins. Instead, ask: *Who can help us succeed right now—even if I haven’t worked with them before or don’t always see eye to eye?*
**4\. Sit down and deliberately make a plan for the worst-case scenario—calmly.**
Layoffs? Role elimination? Don’t obsess—but don’t ignore. Stress and anxiety levels tend to rise when we're ignoring something we need to address. So address the unpleasant tasks or decisions you are facing:
- Refresh your résumé.
- Reach out to contacts.
- Write down your success stories.
- Make a plan.
👉 And treat those tasks *as just tasks*. No drama. If a robot had to do them, it would just... do them. Try this: tell yourself "Its just a task".
**5\. Close out your worry cycle, and don’t let worst-case scenario-making steal your focus.**
Our minds can quickly potential scenarios where all the worst things happen. When you have made your plan, then close the loop on that planning cycle. "Ok I thought about the worse case scenario and I know what I would do. I know it won't be easy, but I'll get through it, and I've got a plan." And then cut it off. I"m not processing that any more. I spent some time thinking about it, and I've got a plan. Ok moving on.
When fearful thoughts creep in, you can, *“Yeah, I’m not processing that right now. I'm working my Plan”* That helps you stay engaged with the present—and confident in your readiness.
**Bottom Line:**
Uncertainty doesn’t have to derail your goals. Stay connected, stay thoughtful, and take steady action—both in your current role and in preparing for what might come next. Progress is still possible, even in the fog.
---
### **\[macro\]**
Photo by [Dan Freeman](https://unsplash.com/@danfreemanphoto?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Looking abroad...
Biggest IPO so far in 2025: [Battery maker CATV, listing in *Hong Kong*, not NY](https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/chinas-catl-raises-46-billion-hong-kong-listing-term-sheet-shows-2025-05-16/?ref=s3t.org). Many connect this to a general flight away from US assets, in the wake of the tariff induced uncertainty, and [Moody' downgrade of US credit rating](https://ratings.moodys.com/ratings-news/443154?ref=s3t.org):
- Global investors worry they are [overweighted in US assets](https://www.franklintempleton.lu/articles/2024/brandywine-global/the-world-is-overweight-us-assets?ref=s3t.org) \- and that the US economy [won’t do well in the foreseeable future](https://moneywise.com/news/economy/this-economic-expert-is-warning-a-large-number-of-foreign-investors-are-worried-about-investing-in-america?ref=s3t.org).
- [Blackstone disagrees](https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/insights/blackrock-investment-institute/weekly-commentary?ref=s3t.org), saying US assets are "still core to portfolios."
### Microstates-->Network States
The IPO also spotlights the "elite micro state" thesis: Hong Kong like Dubai, Singapore, Luxemborg, and a handful of others seem to be following a recipe for outsize prosperity:
- Support only a tiny - mostly elite - population.
- Let a bigger sponsor bear the brunt of the usual nation-state grunt work - domestic policy, national security etc.
- Provide tax havens or other attractions.
Recommend reading the [Microstates history and context](https://jia.sipa.columbia.edu/content/identification-and-definition-microstates?ref=s3t.org) from Columbia Journal of International Affairs. And considering that Microstates may presage [Network States as discussed July 2024](https://www.s3t.org/s3t-july-24/). One early glimpse? The recent dinner for the top holders of the Trump meme coin is an example of how buying a crypto asset can grant membership to a powerful political circle that sits in parallel to a nation state. [More than half of the attendees were from outside the US](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-draws-global-crypto-investors-with-148-million-meme-coin-dinner-2025-05-22/?ref=s3t.org).
### Side Hustles
44% of Americans have a side hustle per the [Lending Trees latest Side Hustle Survey](https://www.lendingtree.com/debt-consolidation/side-hustle-income-survey/?ref=s3t.org), up from [36% in 2024](https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2024/07/27/side-hustles-gig-economy-earn-extra-money/74218094007/?ref=s3t.org). The increase in people starting side hustles is expected to continue: [26 million more will likely add side hustles by 2027](https://www.morningbrew.com/issues/side-hustle-brew?mbcid=39905940.4061109&mid=e3bbd04d4db4c803fc4a5f0a58fc7833&ref=s3t.org).
### AI Driven Work Trends
💯 Highly Recommended: [Microsoft's 2025 Work Trend Index](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/worklab/work-trend-index?ref=s3t.org) \- based on aggregate data on how 31,000 individuals are using MS Copilot to **close the capacity gap** (between business demands vs max staff capacity).
*Full Access Members: See the* [*S3T Economic Dashboard*](https://www.s3t.org/dashboard/) *for the Top 500+ US & International real-time economic indicators.*
*Click here for an overview of the full* [*Change Leadership Learning Series*](https://www.s3t.org/change-leadership-learning-series/)*.*
---
###
**\[playbooks\]**
- [Spend Wisely in a Hype-Driven World](https://www.s3t.org/spendwisely/)
- [Gaining Buy-in for Data Modernization](https://www.s3t.org/s3t-playbook-data-modernization/)
- [Flipping the Script: Understanding and Changing Internal & Macro Narratives](https://www.s3t.org/changing-internal-and-macro-narratives/)
- [Shift to effective gatekeeping in the age of generative AI](https://www.s3t.org/genai-supervisory-workloads/)
- [How to Stop Zombie Projects from Sapping your Focus and Resources](https://www.s3t.org/stop-zombie-projects/)
- [Harmonize Different Kinds of Expertise to Achieve Success](https://www.s3t.org/harmonize-expertise/)
- [Addressing issues related to uneven accountability](https://www.s3t.org/disabling-accountability-shields/)
- [Validating AI use cases](https://www.s3t.org/validating-ai-use-cases/)
- [6 Proven Ways to Resolve Conflicts](https://www.s3t.org/6-ways-to-resolve-conflicts/)
See [Full List of S3T Playbooks](https://www.s3t.org/playbooks/)
### **\[panoramas\]**
- [Health](https://www.s3t.org/panorama-health/)
- [Macro](https://www.s3t.org/panorama-macro/)
- [Innovation](https://www.s3t.org/panorama-innovation/)
- [Habitat](https://www.s3t.org/panorama-habitat/)
- [Energy](https://www.s3t.org/panorama-energy/)
- [About S3T Panoramas](https://www.s3t.org/panoramas-about/)
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### 5.16.2025 - AI vs. your career - common themes in what the experts are saying
URL: https://www.s3t.org/5-16-2025-ai-vs-your-career-common-themes-in-what-the-experts-are-saying/
Last updated: 2025-05-16T02:45:44.000Z
*You don’t need to out-compete AI and robots. You need to do what they can’t. Help others do the same. And learn how to orchestrate automated agents so they achieve good outcomes.*
S3T PodCast May 16 2025
0:00
/1050.7232653061224
1×
*🎧 Click the player above to listen here, or* [*listen on Spotify*](https://creators.spotify.com/pod/show/gets3t/episodes/5-16-2025---AI-vs--your-career---common-themes-in-what-the-experts-are-saying-e32tr5i?ref=s3t.org)
### Top insights to glean from this issue of S3T
🎓 **Welcome to the Future of Work** You’re not just starting a career—you’re entering a *remade economy*. AI is reshaping jobs, and companies face historic uncertainty. But that means *huge opportunity* for those who can adapt.
🧠 **Learn Fast or Fall Behind** The most future-proof skill? *Rapid learning and relearning*. Synthesize info, make smart decisions, and prototype fast. It’s not your GPA—it’s how you grow, *week by week*.
🤝 **Be the Human AI Can’t Be** Empathy, ethics, teamwork, clear communication—these are *automation-proof*. The best leaders? Those who bridge humans and machines, and orchestrate both to solve complex challenges.
🧪 **Build, Break, Fix, Repeat** Don’t just study—*build things*. Learn by doing. Test systems, stress-test ideas, fix flaws. Every project is a portfolio piece—and a step toward mastery.
📊 **AI UX is the New Gold Rush** Bad AI experiences are everywhere. If you can design AI that actually *works for humans*—secure, reliable, intuitive—you’ve got a high-value skill companies desperately need.
🛠️ **Support the Machines, Grow the Future** Future roles aren’t just using AI—they’re *enabling it*. Think robot field engineers, AI workflow designers, QA for automated systems. Every smart machine needs a smarter human.
🌍 **Lead the Change, Don’t Just Ride It** Today’s orgs are fluid, not fixed. Leadership isn’t about hierarchy—it’s about *mobilizing people across disciplines* to solve problems no org chart can predict. That’s change leadership. That’s the edge.
### ***Premium Content:***
🤖 **Is your team AI-ready?** Investors and leaders must assess how well their people *collaborate with AI* to drive outcomes, manage risk, and stay competitive—*before the future outpaces them.*
🌊 **Economic Rifts & Rising Risks** The U.S. may be splitting into a “partisan economy” narrative, but data shows *non-aligned companies outperform* thanks to focus on outcomes, not ideology. Meanwhile, economic confidence is sinking—only 37% think the country’s on the right track.
⚖️ **4\. AI Law: National vs Local Tug-of-War** Congress wants a 10-year freeze on state AI laws, but critics say *local insight and enforcement* are essential. The smart path? Federal guardrails + empowered states = stronger, adaptive AI governance.
---
Photo by [Jeremy Bishop](https://unsplash.com/@jeremybishop?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## 🎓It’s graduation season—and what a wild time to be paddling out!
Wave after wave of change. The economy is being remade in real time. AI is moving faster than we can grasp its full impact on careers, job security, and the future of work. And companies are facing [more uncertainty than ever](https://www.investopedia.com/the-graduating-class-of-2025-is-entering-an-uncertain-job-market-11727142?ref=s3t.org).
So I dug into the top advice being offered to the Class of 2025 (and workers in general) to find the **common themes in all the advice that is being given.**
Whether you're a new grad entering the workforce (Congrats BTW!), a professional mapping your career, decision-maker or investor, these themes are worth paying attention to.
**TL;DR: What Future-Proof Professionals & Companies Know:**
- *How to learn fast*
- *How to work with others*
- *How to fix what breaks (and test/resolve issues before release)*
- *How to bridge gaps between AI tech and people*
- *How to think clearly and act ethically*
**Bottom line:** You don’t need to out-compete AI and robots. You need to do what they can’t. Help others do the same. And learn how to *orchestrate* automated agents whether they are AI tools, robots, or mixed portfolios of different kinds of automation.
### Top recurring themes: skills and acumen to build
While this advice came from a wide range of sources - Investors, career coaches, consulting companies, and universities - there was remarkable alignment on a few key themes:
**AI User Experience** \- designing and delivering a reliable user experience is one of the biggest opportunity spaces for business roles of all types, including highly technical developers.
- Too many AI platforms, products, services and industries deliver abysmal user experiences, and earn the hatred of customers as a result...especially if it's not easy for the customers to switch.
- Most AI companies have not yet figured out how to reliably orchestrate the different app and cloud components that must work together to deliver a reliable and valuable user experience.
- Current AI testing process are often ineffective/incomplete. They over-rely on traditional software testing approaches that don't factor in the additional risks and issues associated with AI and analytic services.
Today's challenge is to design a user experience, then effectively test all the working components and confirm that they deliver the intended user experience even in real world conditions, when fully integrated with other required systems, protected by the required security, etc. The ability to do this and do it well is rare - *and highly valuable.*
**Adaptability & Proactivity** Your ability to pivot, and your ability to help teams pivot, will set you apart. Explore and embrace emerging sectors like AI ethics, data analytics, and interdisciplinary applications of technology. These areas are expected to offer new roles and opportunities. See [The Open Palm Mindset](https://www.s3t.org/the-open-palm-mindset/) for more about pivot power.
**Continuous AI and Analytics Learning - by Doing** \- including from alternative education and learning paths. The rising costs of traditional education, and the increasing challenges faced by universities (reduced funding, increased administrative overhead) combined with the evolving job landscape, push more people toward online certifications, vocational training, apprenticeships in high-demand trades and other alternative learning paths.
Prioritize work opportunities that allow you to learn by doing. Beware of allowing time to pass in a company or team that is not challenging you or allowing you to grow. At the end of any 3-6 month period you want to be able to say "Here's what I improved/built/helped build, here's what it achieved, what we learned, and what we plan to do next."
**Leadership skills** \- *especially leadership that is savvy about change* \- shows up over and over again (why S3T focuses on [Change Leadership](https://www.s3t.org/what-is-change-leadership/)). Being savvy about change starts with a sharp understanding of 3 changing realities of the 21st century: Economic, Tech & Organizational. Let's break these down:
- **New Economic Realities:** The economy is evolving. Simultaneously we're correcting our flawed understanding of how an economy works. We are learning to recognize economic distortions (limitations of market based valuations) that cause us to over-value certain activities and material goods while under-valuing more crucial work and services we can't do without.
- **New Technology Realities:** Emerging Tech is accelerating. Our understanding of what we can do with tools and technology is also constantly evolving. We're creating new kinds of combined technologies that require increasingly sophisticated governance. We're learning - the hard way in many cases - the difference between innovation that brings unwanted side effects vs. intentional beneficial innovation.
- **New Organizational Realities:** The org you lead or work for will not be a static hierarchical machine. You will be changing the machine, its structure, products and services, *while operating it*, in order to adapt to the new economic and tech realities. Tech feasibility is ahead of, and largely indiscernible to management science (the frameworks that guide decision-making and org design). As a result, the current structure of any org, at any given point, obstructs the orgs ability to execute on its goals, thrive or even survive. You'll have to learn to work agnostic to your org structure without burning trust and creating silos.
Today's leaders and innovators have to wrestle with new economic, tech and org realities. When we consider these new realities objectively, we realize that - to be effective - we need a different kind of leadership in the 21st century: *change leadership*. The ability to see opportunities, mobilize people across different silos and disciplines to come together to execute effectively and achieve wins. This kind of leadership needs to exist (and be nurtured) at *all* levels of the org - not just the top.
Photo by [Ben Warren](https://unsplash.com/@wazzastudio?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
###
### Learning Pathways
Here are concrete steps you can take, starting now:
- **Mix Tech *and* Human Studies**: Combine STEM courses with philosophy, ethics, communication, and behavioral science.
- **Build Projects**: Learn by doing. Join hackathons, robotics clubs, maker spaces, or simulation labs.
- **Get Field Experience**: Intern or shadow in real-world jobs where automation is *not yet* replacing humans.
- **Level Up Soft Skills**: Practice teamwork, engaged alert listening, teach others, present your ideas, and get feedback.
- **Explore AI Tools**: Learn prompt engineering, use AI to accelerate learning, and stay curious about new tools.
- **Think Systemically**: Study how decisions/actions/events have ripple effects in ecosystems: natural, financial, social and industry ecosystems. *Systems thinking* is an underrated superpower.
### Sources & Notes
City University of Seattle offers a practical list of [10 most in-demand skills for 2025](https://www.cityu.edu/blog/skills-in-demand-2025/?ref=s3t.org): Data science, AI fluency, Software dev (especially Python), Emotional Intelligence, Problem Solving, Creativity, Proactivity, Leadership, Adaptability
[Cognizant's advice for Class of 2025](https://www.cognizant.com/us/en/insights/insights-blog/career-advice-for-the-class-of-2025?ref=s3t.org): Continuous learning and growth, Critical thinking, Emotional intelligence, openness to new opportunities, using AI instead of seeing it as competition.
Career Coach [Phoebe Gavin emphasizes being *proactive*:](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/22/tips-for-success-on-the-job-in-2025-according-to-a-career-coach.html?ref=s3t.org) Proactively build relationships with colleagues, network to discover opportunities.
[Warren Buffet's recent advice](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/08/warren-buffetts-top-advice-for-young-people.html?ref=s3t.org): Set yourself up for continuous learning by: 1\. Surrounding yourself with smart people. 2\. Doing what you enjoy - with people who also love the work and aren't in it for the money.
[Foundit's Best Career Options](https://www.foundit.in/career-advice/top-career-options-for-future/?ref=s3t.org) (Data science, AI, Security, Healthcare, Robotics, FinTech, Supply Chain, UX, others) and Skills (Digital Literacy, Communication, Problem Solving, Adaptability, Continuous Learning)
[David Novak Career Advice for 22 Year Olds](https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/career-advice-id-give-my-22-year-old-self-david-novak-cnytc/?ref=s3t.org), May 2025: Build relationships, Build trust through excellence in small things, Build your brand by knowing yourself and strengths, and using them to bring value.
[Coursera's 7 high income skills to learn](https://www.coursera.org/gb/articles/high-income-skills?ref=s3t.org): Data Analysis, Software development, User Experience and others.
[Embrace intentional learning](https://www.insidehighered.com/opinion/career-advice/carpe-careers/2025/05/12/power-reflection-career-planning-opinion?ref=s3t.org) says Inside Higher Ed. Reflect on what you are learning and doing and why, rather than working from a checklist mentality.
Robert Half: [5 Potential Challenges Facing Early Career Professionals](https://press.roberthalf.com/2025-04-14-Class-of-2025-Five-Potential-Challenges-Facing-Early-Career-Professionals-and-How-to-Overcome-Them?ref=s3t.org) \- and how to overcome them.
[LinkedIn's Grad Guide '25](https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/linkedin-grads-guide-2025-jobs-industries-cities-rise-new-ggnje/?ref=s3t.org) \- The jobs, industries and cities on the rise for new grads
---
## 🤿 Deeper dive for investors and leaders: Is your team AI-Compatible?
Photo by [NEOM](https://unsplash.com/@neom?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### **Top 5 Questions to Ask Right Now**
Creating an AI-compatible career or team means learning how to collaborate with AI tools (seeing them as partners not competition) to enable a higher positive impact: effectively managing risks, and ensuring good outcomes.
But doing this effectively requires investors, entrepreneurs as well as corporate leaders to think differently about learning and performance. **Here are the top 5 questions to ask - and recalibrate quickly if you don't like the answers:**
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### 🗑️ 5.9.2025 - Work that doesn't work Part 2
URL: https://www.s3t.org/may-9/
Last updated: 2025-05-09T05:28:53.000Z
*Why your team is doing more but getting less done - and how to break out of that*
S3T PodCast May 9, 2025
0:00
/1333.498775510204
1×
---
### In this Issue
🔄 **Leadership Perspective: Busy ≠ Productive**
Despite being overloaded with initiatives, many organizations underperform because *effort is spent on low-value, misaligned, or inefficient work*, not due to lack of effort or investment.
- 🧭 **Misplaced Decision-Making**
Key insights and better paths are often missed because decisions are made too far from the front lines—*real progress requires proximity between decision-making and expertise*.
- ⛓️ **Gatekeepers & Bloat Kill Momentum**
Layers of gatekeeping, outdated processes, and too many "non-doers" create costly bottlenecks—*draining energy, delaying progress, and eroding morale*.
- 🎯 **Right Talent, Right Task**
Lack of traction often stems from *misalignment between task complexity and workforce capability*—scaling wins requires empowering skilled "doers" and cutting unproductive overhead.
- 📉 **Shrink the Work to Win More**
Organizations that break oversized projects into *smaller, high-impact, well-staffed efforts* achieve more wins per fiscal year—and stay agile enough to capture emerging opportunities.
**💸 Macro finance insights: What to get ready for**
- 🌍📉 *Global financial shift underway*: As US economic indicators weaken (GDP down 0.3%, air travel demand slipping), institutions are turning to "blue chip" crypto like Bitcoin (now >$100K) and nations are seeking alternatives to the US dollar in trade.
- 🏛️💱 *Changing guard in global finance*: Historical parallels suggest US tariff strategies may backfire, while rising institutional crypto interest and de-dollarization in Asia signal a broader architectural evolution in the world economy.
---
## **\[perspective\]**
Photo by [Patrick Perkins](https://unsplash.com/@patrickperkins?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
###
### *Work that Doesn't Work Part 2*
## The New Productivity Paradox: Why So Much Work Produces So Little Value
*Why we don't do what we could do, even though we really really could do it*
The phrase *Productivity Paradox* was [originally coined by Erik Brynjolfsson in 1993](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Productivity%5Fparadox?ref=s3t.org) \- referring to an ironic decline in productivity growth in spite of the emergence of information technology. Today we're seeing a new version of that issue, where companies don't achieve their goals in spite of stated intent, and in spite of plenty investments in technology and staffing.
Leading companies are learning how to unlock new wins and successes by getting a clear understanding this issue, and how to address it.
### Too Many Things, Not Enough Progress
Companies today are busier than ever—but not necessarily more effective. Despite significant investments in technology, talent, and transformation initiatives, many are missing their goals.
Leaders hear it and say it constantly: *We’re trying to do too many things—we need to prioritize!* At the same time, we get a steady stream of signals from customers and the competition that - guess what - *We’re not doing nearly enough.* We’re falling behind competitors, failing to meet customer expectations, struggling to upskill our teams, and not building the resilience we need.
***So which is it? Are we overloaded, or are we underperforming?***
The answer isn’t about cutting back or doing more. It’s not that people aren’t working hard. It’s about *how work gets don*e. Sometimes, the problem isn’t *what* we’re asking people to do—**it’s how we arrived at the current set of priorities and *how we expect them to do it*.** When we presume that work can only get done with a certain structure or team size or set of specific roles, we limit our impact.
Companies fall into this trap all the time. Consider the ways we bog ourselves down:
- Missing important cues and opportunities because decisions are happening at the wrong levels or wrong locations in the organization. Relevant high value insights that would have taken us down a better path were available but missed because we weren't hearing from people with direct line of sight into the actual problems.
- Gatekeeper teams that create bottlenecks instead of progress because they are [shielded from accountability](https://www.s3t.org/disabling-accountability-shields/). While other teams directly feel the consequences of success or failure, these teams do not.
- Redundant or non-effective processes. This can include roles or frameworks that were imposed because they seemed to be "correct" but weren't actually applied to the way your industry needs to work.
All of these have one pernicious thing in common - they consume effort, attention, energy and good will without offering much good in return. They exhaust teams and partners and give everyone a superficially inflated perception of the level of effort required. It causes us to falsely conclude that the impact we want to have is beyond our ability.
No wonder so many teams feel overloaded and swamped.
Photo by [Giuseppe Famiani](https://unsplash.com/@gieffe22?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### Perception vs Reality
The reality: People are rarely overloaded with truly vital tasks—they’re overloaded with forced inefficiencies that waste their time and energy - and make us lose sight of the more important work. Like raindrops on a windshield that - if we focus on them - make us lose sight of the road to our destination.
- Workers report spending [41% of their time in low value tasks](https://slack.com/blog/news/new-slack-research-shows-accelerating-ai-use-at-work?ref=s3t.org), per this Workforce Lab study.
- This inability to focus on high value work is expensive - This Economist Impact study found [$1.4 Trillion in lost economic opportunity in the US alone](https://blog.dropbox.com/topics/work-culture/economist-impact-cost-of-lost-focus-research-study-2023?ref=s3t.org).
The graphic below illustrates why perceptions and realities about work can differ.
Project sizing, when done by individuals or teams unfamiliar with the subject matter or expertise domain, tends to be based on fear of underestimating the effort This tends tend to result in estimates that are inflated.
Beyond just sizing and estimating, the projects themselves (their budgets, staffing needs and timelines) become larger when we don't have the optimal talent working on them.
If you see chronic worker overload and budget overruns even though the company is lagging on its goals and KPIs, its an expression of the fact that we don't know how to match the work with the talent required to do it optimally. We aren't selecting the right talent for the initiatives we take on. Or perhaps we do have a few individuals with the expertise and talent, but **we aren't letting them use their expertise to guide us toward more optimal ways of working**. Either way, it puts teams in a no win situation - doing more and more but getting less and less done.
### Doing more but getting less done - why it happens
As shown in the graphic below, this impacts how many wins we can create in a given Fiscal Year. The Fiscal Years of most companies look like the one on the left (FY1): large oversized initiatives that spill over across multiple years and prevent other essential modernizations or improvements from happening. Leading companies learn how to have Fiscal Years that look more like the one on the right (FY3). Required work is done via smaller tighter efforts with the right talent, which leaves margin for unforeseen opportunities.
### ...And how to break out of the cycle
The above graphic shows the implications of incorrectly sized work. FY 1 represents a company that takes on fewer initiatives than they could/should simply because their workforce lacks the talent to size and execute the work. It is perceived to be larger than it actually is.
As the progress reports flow in, the (actually false) perception is reinforced, until everyone accepts that the projects will have to spill over into next year. Which means that we'll have reduced ability to respond to the unique customer needs and competitive threats that will emerge next year.
Key point: **We don’t just need fewer priorities—we need *better traction*.**
### Strategies for better enterprise traction
- **Eliminate unnecessary process overhead**—streamlining work so that the important stuff actually gets done, while the other less important / optional stuff gets deferred, or better yet, completely and permanently removed from people's plates.
- **Put decision-making in closer proximity to expertise** —ensuring decisions are made by those with the clearest line of sight on the problem. For additional insights see the [recent S3T Edition on Avoiding the Horse Shoe Trap](https://www.s3t.org/horse%5Fshoe%5Ftrap/)
- **Reducing delays** \- cutting out loops that force people to wait on gatekeeper or approver types who aren't providing meaningful or timely scrutiny. Watch out for approval bodies where the approvers aren't keeping up with the rapidly evolving subject area they are responsible for - where those seeking approval have to educate and upskill the people with approval authority. Some of this is inevitable - we all have things we don't know. But if it's consistent, consider changing that approval process so it is done by more informed knowledgeable approvers.
- **Check the composition of your workforce: Doers vs. Non-Doers**. In most organizations, the ratio of “doers” to “non-doers” is incompatible with stated goals. Too many roles are built around observing, reporting, and deliberating—and too few around actually building, creating, and solving. Ask yourself: How many of our team members are moving things from zero to one? Building the product, closing the deal, shipping the solution? Vs. how many are just making slides to report that we're still at zero?
- **Upskill the Doers** \- Make sure those who are building, solving and moving the team forward are equipped and empowered to play at the top of their game. You'll get way more done.
If it feels like your team is both doing too much *and* not achieving enough, take a hard look at *how* work is flowing. **Your organization isn’t underperforming because people are doing too little. It’s underperforming because too few are enabled to do what matters most.**
So by taking these points and applying them, you and your team can join those leading organizations that are learning how to unlock new wins and successes by getting a clear understanding of the productivity paradox, fine tune the composition of their workforce, and optimize their processes so their teams can focus on the high value work and deliver that greater level of impact that we all want to deliver.
Photo by [Hudson Hintze](https://unsplash.com/@hudsonhintze?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
---
### **\[macro-economics\]**
## Economic evolution driven by shift to alternative assets and currencies
*Full Access Members: See the* [*S3T Economic Dashboard*](https://www.s3t.org/dashboard/) *for the Top 500+ US & International real-time economic indicators.*
### Interest Rates & Economic Risks
[Amid protest from the White House](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-calls-jerome-powell-fool-federal-reserve-interest-rate-decision/?ref=s3t.org), the Fed held Interest Rates unchanged at 4.50% this week. [](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-calls-jerome-powell-fool-federal-reserve-interest-rate-decision/?ref=s3t.org)[US Productivity declined in Q1 2025](https://www.haver.com/articles/u-s-productivity-declines-in-q1-25-unit-labor-costs-surge?ref=s3t.org) and [GDP fell 0.3%](https://www.bea.gov/news/glance?ref=s3t.org) per the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (next update May 29).
### Airfares
I travel a bit, and noticed air travel seemed down. Latest data indicates this is not just my imagination - [demand for domestic travel is weakening and airfares are dropping](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/26/plane-tickets-cheap-travel.html?ref=s3t.org). Maybe a good time for that trip you were thinking about?
### Dollar as Reserve Currency
Harold James shares the [historical precedents for the US's current tariff strategy](https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/mar-a-lago-accord-could-break-the-dollar-by-harold-james-2025-05?a%5Fla=english&a%5Fd=681ccd531532c199ff797f86&a%5Fm=&a%5Fa=click&a%5Fs=&a%5Fp=%2Fsection%2Feconomics&a%5Fli=mar-a-lago-accord-could-break-the-dollar-by-harold-james-2025-05&ref=s3t.org), reminding us of 2 other similar attempts:
- Nixon's 1971 Smithsonian Agreement
- Reagan's 1985 Plaza Accord
Neither provided any long term relief to US workers. And James shows how the current efforts could backfire. More countries are [looking for ways to avoid using the US dollar in trade](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-09/global-shift-to-bypass-the-dollar-is-gaining-momentum-in-asia?ref=s3t.org). The shift seems especially pronounced in Asia.
### Bitcoin back above $100K
Bitcoin was at 102K at time of writing, due to institutional interest [perhaps stoked by the announcement of a US-UK trade agreement](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/08/crypto-market-today.html?ref=s3t.org). Other leading digital assets also rose higher this week, but Bitcoin dominance (the % of crypto investors holding Bitcoin vs others is >60% ...[this is different from the other two 100K price peaks](https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-hits-100k-first-time-since-january?ref=s3t.org), and suggests tapering interest in the so-called "Alt-coins", the longer tail of lesser known-lesser held digital assets.
This combined with the other current indicators noted here suggests 2 shifts underway:
- More and more crypto is becoming the domain of serious (institutional) investors looking for "blue chip" crypto assets rather than fun meme coins because they sense that the current go to havens and assets offered by the current US led global financial system might not be as viable in the future.
- Likewise international trade partners are exploring alternatives to the US dollar based global trading system.
The financial architecture of the world is changing.
---
###
**\[S3T playbooks\]**
- [Spend Wisely in a Hype-Driven World](https://www.s3t.org/spendwisely/)
- [Gaining Buy-in for Data Modernization](https://www.s3t.org/s3t-playbook-data-modernization/)
- [Flipping the Script: Understanding and Changing Internal & Macro Narratives](https://www.s3t.org/changing-internal-and-macro-narratives/)
- [Shift to effective gatekeeping in the age of generative AI](https://www.s3t.org/genai-supervisory-workloads/)
- [How to Stop Zombie Projects from Sapping your Focus and Resources](https://www.s3t.org/stop-zombie-projects/)
- [Harmonize Different Kinds of Expertise to Achieve Success](https://www.s3t.org/harmonize-expertise/)
- [Addressing issues related to uneven accountability](https://www.s3t.org/disabling-accountability-shields/)
- [Validating AI use cases](https://www.s3t.org/validating-ai-use-cases/)
- [6 Proven Ways to Resolve Conflicts](https://www.s3t.org/6-ways-to-resolve-conflicts/)
See [Full List of S3T Playbooks](https://www.s3t.org/playbooks/)
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### 🗻5.2.2025 - Total addressable impact, System prompts, AI security
URL: https://www.s3t.org/5-2-2025-total-addressable-impact-system-prompts-ai-security/
Last updated: 2025-05-02T03:42:38.000Z
*Every person in every team, has a deep need to climb mountains of success, not just run on treadmills.*
S3T PodCast May 2, 2025
0:00
/1426.7036734693877
1×
🎧 Click the player above listen here, or you can [go and listen on Spotify](https://creators.spotify.com/pod/show/gets3t/episodes/5-2-2025---Total-addressable-impact--System-prompts--AI-security-e3296qc?ref=s3t.org).
---
### In this Issue
- 🎯 **Reframe Productivity with TAI**
Like TAM in investing, *Total Addressable Impact (TAI)* helps leaders visualize the gap between what their organization is doing now vs. what it could achieve—highlighting both unrealized potential and hidden negative impact.
- 🧠 **Everyone Feels the Delta**
Team members instinctively sense when their work isn’t adding up to real impact. They want to do more that matters—but are trapped in systems full of administrivia and friction that make real progress feel out of reach.
- 🧪 **Challenge Your Assumptions**
A bold thought experiment—what if 20% of current work was removed or restructured? Would your organization crumble, or would you finally unlock capacity for high-leverage, mission-critical initiatives?
*Premium Content for Paying Members (*[*Sign up for free 1 month trial*](https://www.s3t.org/change-leadership-30-day-free-trial)*):*
- 💼 **Investor Lens: TAI = Operational Traction**
For investors and board members, TAI offers early insight into whether a company has real traction—or is bogged down by operational drag. It’s a better indicator of long-term growth than busy dashboards and bloated OKRs.
- 🧗♂️ **From Treadmill to Ascent**
The ultimate leadership question: *Are we stuck on a treadmill of low-impact activity—or climbing toward peak performance and meaningful change?* The difference is what we choose to let go of—and what we empower people to pursue.
- 🔐 **AI vs. Cybersecurity: A High-Stakes Tug-of-War**
Organizations managing sensitive data face a no-win dilemma: unlocking AI's value often requires risky data access, while AI simultaneously heightens cyber threats—driving urgent interest in AI-native security solutions and startups.
- 🧠 **AI Agents = New Governance Frontier**
ChatGPT’s recent behavioral issues spotlight the risks of opaque system prompts and inadequate testing. As AI agents grow more autonomous, current "ship now, patch later" approaches won't cut it—rigorous interpretability and safety must become non-negotiable.
- 🛠 **AI Testing Just Got Serious**
Enterprise teams and investors should demand clarity on system prompts, edge-case handling, and behavior under pressure. Smart questions about governance and alignment will become your frontline defense in the AI-powered workplace.
---
### **\[perspective\]**
## Total Addressable Impact is your best Motivator for boosting Organizational Performance
*Part 1 of a 2 part series on Work that Doesn't Work.*
### **Expanding Impact: The motivation for moving beyond *work that doesn’t work***
The Total Addressable Impact infographic compares your current impact vs your potential impact both in positive and negative terms.
1. **Total Potential Impact** – the full scope of what your company *could* achieve.
2. **Total Actual Impact** – a much smaller circle, representing what’s actually being accomplished.
3. **Total Negative Impact** – the drag created by inefficiencies, unnecessary tasks, and misaligned efforts.
This visual is adapted from the common investor framework we call TAM (Total Addressable Market). It gives investors and founders a more concrete way to consider the potential of a company or product. Likewise our TAI (Total Addressable Impact) visual helps us think about the impact we're having vs the impact we could have.
### What every team member intuitively knows...
Company staff at all levels usually have an intuitive sense of the positive impact they are having as well as the negative impact they are having. They naturally wish to increase the positive impact and decrease the negative. This is where the productivity paradox can become a hindrance.
Yes, we wish we could, but we just can't. Well, we think we can't.
Too often, organizations believe they’re at full capacity simply because project portfolios and backlogs look full. Everyone is busy. But busy doesn’t mean effective. If we want to maximize positive impact, we don’t just need to do *less*—we need to **remove the administrivia and friction that eat up time and energy without driving real value**.
Here’s a thought experiment:
- What if you took half of your accounting staff and had them work at a soup kitchen or a community initiative for a month? Most would say: *We can’t afford that!*
- But if you really looked at the return on investment of the work they’re doing today, would it be so clear-cut? How much of their time is spent on processes that don’t truly move the needle? How much of their effort is dedicated to tasks that could be streamlined or eliminated altogether? (Not to mention, these efforts probably don't even have any reputational or social good!)
This is where organizations get stuck - the tacit all too often *unexamined* assumption that every piece of work is necessary simply because it exists. But if we took a harder look at **what’s *actually* generating value versus what’s just burning time**, we might find that we’re holding on to low-impact work at the cost of something far more meaningful.
Photo by [Tobias Mrzyk](https://unsplash.com/@tobiasmrzyk?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### And here's where the motivation part comes in...
Changing the way people work is one of the toughest kinds of changes to drive in an organization. Letting go of the comfortable work processes and structures and moving into something tighter, faster, more skill-based is really scary. That's why **it is crucial to connect people to the fundamental motivation that will inspire the needed level of commitment.** This fundamental motivation is present in all of us - *our desire to have an impact*.
The first step is to have a conversation - guided by a graphic like the one above - that enables people and teams to consider the *difference* between the impact they're currently having vs the impact they'd like to have. This delta is universal: the sense that we could be having a greater impact, and we'd really like to. Notice it's the sense that we could be *impacting* more....not simply *doing* more.
### **The Shift: From Busywork to Real Impact**
To bridge the gap between potential and actual impact, organizations must:
- **Cut the administrivia** – Identify the work that exists only because of outdated processes, unnecessary approvals, or excessive internal coordination.
- **Redefine what ‘essential’ really means** – Just because something has always been done doesn’t mean it needs to continue.
- **Reallocate effort toward higher-value work** – Not just for the company’s bottom line, but for broader societal impact.
When you remove the inefficiencies and align people’s work with what truly matters, you **unlock a level of impact that seemed impossible before.** We will dig into this more next week with the special feature on "The New Productivity Paradox - doing more and getting less done."
Photo by [Xavier von Erlach](https://unsplash.com/@xavier%5Fvon%5Ferlach?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### **Implications for Investors and Stakeholders**
If you’re an investor, board member, or advisor, this Total Addressable Impact lens is just as critical as the Total Addressable Market lens. Look beyond surface activity and ask:
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### 4.25.2025 - What are we building?
URL: https://www.s3t.org/4-25-2025-what-are-we-building/
Last updated: 2025-04-25T05:28:24.000Z
Empires exploit, impoverish and collapse. Ecosystems enrich, nurture and renew. *What are we building?*
S3T PodCast April 25, 2025 - What are we building?
0:00
/1413.3289795918367
1×
🎧 Click the player above to listen here, or [listen on Spotify](https://creators.spotify.com/pod/show/gets3t/episodes/4-25-2025---What-are-we-building-e31vp1j?ref=s3t.org).
---
### In this Issue
🌍 **Greed vs. Stewardship**: We face a critical choice—exploit rapid tech growth for short-term gains (greed), or use it to build equitable, lasting systems (stewardship).
⚖️ **Ethics and Accountability**: Stewardship demands intention, transparency, and legacy thinking—balancing innovation with responsibility, versus greed’s race to bypass accountability.
🧠 **Leadership Rethink**: Calls for a shift from profit-maximizing strategists to value-creating stewards—leaders who prioritize long-term wellbeing, not quarterly metrics.
🤖 **Tech and Economic Shifts**: AI, automation, and crypto are reshaping economies; the future lies in equitable ownership of automation, not nostalgia for industrial jobs.
🏠 **Structural Insecurity**: Rising inequality, unaffordable housing, and unstable job markets are fueling cultural and institutional distrust—highlighting the need for resilient systems.
💸 **Redefining Value in Uncertain Times**: Families and institutions alike are adapting to volatility—rethinking savings, investments, and the cost-efficiency of legacy systems like higher education.
---
Photo by [Austin Poon](https://unsplash.com/@austinpoon?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## What are we building?
*Greed vs. Stewardship in an Age of Acceleration*
Increasingly powerful tools—from algorithms to automation— give us the ability to move faster than regulations, faster than norms, faster than most can even comprehend. **But speed is not the only thing that matters. Direction matters too.** Right now, we need to take a hard look at a foundational choice:
**Will we build a future based on greed, or on stewardship?**
### **Greed says: "Take all you can, as fast as you can."**
- Hoard resources.
- Maximize short-term gain.
- Exploit loopholes before they close.
- Externalize costs—dump them onto workers, the environment, the next generation.
Greed thrives in chaos and opacity. It leverages speed - not to build resilience - but to outrun accountability.
### **Stewardship says: "Build something worth having - and inheriting."**
- Align power with responsibility and accountability.
- Balance innovation with care.
- Create structures that outlast you.
- Use today's tools to heal, uplift, and enable—not just to extract and exploit.
Stewardship operates with transparency, intention, and a sense of legacy. It asks not just *“Can we?”* but *“Should we?”*—and more importantly, *“How can we do this in a way that benefits others too?”*
### **Why this matters now:**
- **Economically:** Many are questioning the sustainability of current models. Wealth gaps widen, housing and healthcare become unaffordable, and markets feel rigged.
- **Technologically:** AI, crypto, and automation offer immense potential—but who benefits? Who decides the rules? Who bears the risks?
- **Culturally:** Trust in institutions is eroding. Younger generations are demanding purpose, fairness, and shared prosperity—not just innovation for innovation’s sake.
### **The leadership we need next:**
- Leaders who don’t confuse fiscal reports with value creation.
- Founders who see humans as more than “user metrics.”
- Capital allocators who care more about long-term wellbeing than quarterly returns.
In short: **We need stewards, not just strategists.**
*Greed is fast. Stewardship is enduring.* And in this moment of rapid change, the choices we make—individually and collectively—will determine whether our work leads to **collapse… or renewal.**
**Strive to build ecosystems, not empires.** Empires exploit and impoverish. Ecosystems enrich and nurture. That's because they're designed and built differently. *What are we building?*
---
**Further Reading from S3T.org:**
- Navigating a World in Flux: Insights into adapting leadership amidst rapid changes.
- Election 2024: A Reckoning with Economic Inequality: Discusses the growing economic disparities and their implications.
- Defining Change Leadership: Explores the principles of effective change leadership in today's context.
- Beneath the Headlines: The Shift from Theory-Driven to Code-Driven Economy: Examines the transition in economic paradigms influenced by technological advancements.
---
### \[economic signals\]
Photo by [Andreas Dittberner](https://unsplash.com/@snygo?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## 🔬Overlooked: key details about tariffs
Lyn Alden [gives a best ever explainer](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/coin-stories/id1569130932?i=1000703878718&ref=s3t.org) of the overlooked details re: Tariffs & the US Trade Deficits. Highlights:
- The U.S. trade deficit is tied to/driven by the global system built around the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency.
- Having the Dollar as the global reserve currency is - *in some ways* \- a huge advantage for the US *but it doesn't benefit all Americans equally*. It actually disadvantages regions of the US where the economy is/was driven by manufacturing.
- The current reserve currency system has been in place for \~50years - and in US manufacturing hubs the cumulative effect of 50 years of trade deficits has been destructive, and in Alden's view is helping to drive a significant political shift.
Peter D'Antonio and Daniel Golden bring some additional dimension to this picture in their [review of US manufacturing job trends](https://www.haver.com/articles/less-manufacturing-can-indicate-economic-prosperity?ref=s3t.org). Manufacturing as a share of total US employment has been steadily falling since WWII:
[Click here for full context from Havre Analytics](https://www.haver.com/articles/less-manufacturing-can-indicate-economic-prosperity?ref=s3t.org)
But overall employment hasn't fallen at this same rate...so what happened? The authors point out 2 factors:
- Manufacturing productivity has doubled in the US thanks to automation...so fewer workers are needed for a given level of output.
- In the US, the long trend is rising demand for *services*, and people spending more and more money on services vs goods.
In addition, across all countries, there is an interesting relationship between standards of living (as measured by Per Capita GDP) vs percent of citizens employed in services:
[Click here for full context from Havre Analytics](https://www.haver.com/articles/less-manufacturing-can-indicate-economic-prosperity?ref=s3t.org)
The more affluent a nation is, the more likely it is to have a higher demand for services vs goods. The authors conclude: "*US is in an entirely different place developmentally and should not preoccupy itself with trying to match China’s manufacturing and trade performance.*"
### My Take
Trying to create more assembly line jobs feels short sighted, given the coming waves of AI driven automation and robotics. And, even the services economy isn't likely to remain a haven of employment if it is disrupted by humanoid robots and hyper-automation - as trends suggest it will be. Manufacturing and Services both are at risk.
Instead of hoping for a 2nd US Golden Age of Manufacturing where we just go back to tethering workers to assembly lines, we should be building a **Golden Age of Automation *Ownership*** where we have figured out how to give people opportunities to:
- Own shares of robotic assets: stock ownership in commercial interests that run fleets of robots for specific purposes, or tokenized ownership in on-chain agents that provide services or orchestrate the activities of robots.
- Launch their own companies that use teams of robots to provide services - services to humans, services to the environment, and don't overlook services like maintenance, shelter, recharging etc *for robots themselves*.
- Otherwise harness the value delivery / value creation of robot workers and automated agents.
### 🌪️Weathering the storm
Ramit Sethi (of the Finance for Couples podcast) is now [recommending that families have a 12 month emergency fund](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/experts-now-recommend-a-12-month-emergency-fund-heres-how-to-quickly-save-thousands-in-cash-8ff2a992?ref=s3t.org) due to increased time required to find jobs (now [avg of 6 months](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm?ref=s3t.org)) and increased chances of a recession.
The advice also makes increasing sense in light of longer term trends toward automation and humanoid robots. [See 15 Insights on the Impact of Humanoid Robots on the job market](https://www.rethinkx.com/labor/in-depth/insights-into-humanoid-robotics?ref=s3t.org).
Families aren't the only ones feeling the pinch. Yale may divest a [significant chunk of its private equity portfolio](https://yaledailynews.com/blog/2025/04/22/yale-considers-selling-part-of-private-equity-portfolio/?ref=s3t.org) to get cash on hand to make up for cuts in government funding. Other universities are doing bond issues and similar moves, due to a mix of economic pressures. [Barron's deeper dive here](https://www.barrons.com/articles/trump-harvard-university-endowments-750572b5?ref=s3t.org).
The value prop vs costs of universities is under review. While the value of research is undeniable (across medicine, environment, tech etc), the *efficiency of research*, **the ratio of effort to value** is a factor that does not seem to have gotten enough scrutiny. Same can be said for *efficiency of administration* \- the ratio of admin vs teaching staff.
**Other indicators**
- [US existing home sales fell sharply in March](https://www.haver.com/articles/u-s-existing-home-sales-fall-sharply-in-march?ref=s3t.org)
- NLW sees recent Bitcoin rise as [possible signal of loss of confidence in USD](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-breakdown/id1438693620?i=1000704535121&ref=s3t.org).
---
### \[emerging tech\]
- Character.AI's [new video generation model AvatarFX](https://techcrunch.com/2025/04/22/character-ai-unveils-avatarfx-an-ai-video-model-to-create-lifelike-chatbots/?guccounter=1&guce%5Freferrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cudGVjaG1lbWUuY29tLw&guce%5Freferrer%5Fsig=AQAAAAbAD9SukLm211CdWPRxVG%5FVV6TluH-v0I0VQ64OiSiPLwO4uZie3Guelpuu8PiLoved%5FYGlT1tJYvwNoHUaWEFwKNikPqnZ2UlvcLdW7OL%5FoIG9XW3VLHgDtJr0hMTclme1o3yckj-CHF1ofSVzUzB%5Fok7HaT58qO2tkNgM6BHc&ref=s3t.org) creates animated characters, generating video from pre-existing images.
- Nari Labs new voice model is rocketing to the top of the Hugging Face leader board. [Try it out here](https://huggingface.co/spaces/nari-labs/Dia-1.6B?ref=s3t.org).
- Microsoft's [Work Trend Index Report](https://www.constellationr.com/blog-news/insights/microsoft-human-ai-agent-ratios-will-be-critical-success-new-roles-emerge?ref=s3t.org) notes the rise of Frontier Firms using AI agents as digital workers. Access [full set of materials here](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/worklab/work-trend-index?ref=s3t.org).
- Anthropic anticipates its AI Models [may become sentient and need someone to look out for their welfare](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/24/technology/ai-welfare-anthropic-claude.html?ref=s3t.org) 🙄 ...ok....
---
Thank you for reading and sharing S3T! Have a great week!
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### 4.18.2025 - Balance your viewpoint amid tech & economic disruption
URL: https://www.s3t.org/balance-viewpoint/
Last updated: 2025-04-18T05:27:59.000Z
*We automatically assume our current viewpoint = solid reality. *It does not*.*
---
S3T PodCast April 18 2025
0:00
/1786.3314285714287
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🎧 Listen here, [or on Spotify](https://creators.spotify.com/pod/show/gets3t/episodes/4-18-2025---Balancing-your-viewpoint-amid-economic-and-tech-disruptions-e31m8o4?ref=s3t.org)
### In this Issue
- ⚖️ **Balance Your Thinking in Uncertain Times**: Avoid extreme optimism or pessimism by clarifying your dilemma, acknowledging both fears and overconfidence, and crafting a realistic, balanced viewpoint to drive confident action.
- 📌 **5-Step Clarity Exercise**: Clearly identify your issue, recognize hidden fears, explore overly optimistic distortions, intentionally define a balanced perspective, and create a practical action plan to move forward with less stress.
- 🧠 **Why This Helps**: Awareness of your extremes (negative or positive) reveals realistic pathways, empowering you with calm, confident decision-making in personal and organizational contexts.
- 🤖 **AI Milestone – LLM Passes Turing Test**: GPT-4.5 successfully convinced judges it was human 73% of the time in a UC San Diego study—marking a significant turning point whose implications we're still unpacking.
- 🔗 **Slow Progress in AI & Onchain Render Networks**: Despite innovative partnerships showcased at RenderCon 2025 (notably THINK Agents’ decentralized AI ownership model), Render Token’s declining price indicates slow user adoption, investor sell-offs, and significant risk.
- 💸 **Financial System Under Strain**: Economist Lyn Alden highlights systemic breakdowns in the global monetary system—manifested subtly through rising populism in developed nations and explicitly via currency crises in developing economies.
- 🌐 **Tariffs Mismanaged, Potential Lost**: Nobel-winning economist Paul Samuelson's insights and Lori Wallach’s analysis argue current tariff chaos stems from poor strategy, missing opportunities to rebalance trade and genuinely benefit US and global workers.
---
## **\[perspective\]**
Photo by [Dimmis Vart](https://unsplash.com/@dimmisvart?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Balancing your viewpoint: 5 simple steps
*Here’s a simple approach for clarifying your thinking and arriving at a plan of action you can feel good about. Anytime you’re stuck—unsure what to do or what the “right” decision is—you can use this.*
We’re living in uncertain times—economically, socially, and professionally. Prices keep rising, but paychecks often don’t. The job market feels unpredictable, even for high performers. Industries are being reshaped by AI and robotics, or being whipsawed by trade wars.
Whether you're a team leader, a business owner, or navigating a personal transition, there’s a growing pressure to “get it right” in the face of growing complexity.
When you're carrying this kind of weight—making decisions about your career, your finances, or how best to support your team or family—it’s easy to fall into extreme thinking. One moment, you’re spiraling into worst-case scenarios. The next, you’re brushing off the risks, hoping things will just work themselves out.
Neither mindset serves you well. So this is a great chance to learn a simple exercise that will help you make better decisions and maintain a more settled, calm mindset.
We're going to learn together how to spot the extremes in our thinking and intentionally find a more balanced, realistic view. You'll learn simple but powerful way to clarify your thinking and move forward with more confidence, less stress, and a plan you can stand behind.
It works both at the personal level and the organizational level. It's especially helpful in times like these where there is a lot of certainty and you may be wrestling with a difficult decision. Anytime you are feeling that you can't figure out what to do, or don't know what the right decision is, you can use this approach.
### Step 1: What’s the question or issue I’m facing?
In 1–2 sentences, write out the decision or dilemma you're facing. Be clear and specific.
---
### Step 2: What is my fear-based viewpoint?
List what you’re worried about. These are the thoughts that often run in the background but can quietly shape your decisions. I’ve added common mindsets to watch out for in parentheses.
- *“I’m worried I’ll make the wrong decision.”* *(Can’t-win mentality)*
- *“I’m ahead of my skis—reaching for success I don’t deserve—and I’ll be punished for it.”* *(Sense of unworthiness)*
- *“I’m neglecting my team/family/self.”* *(Guilt)*
- *“This is all my fault.”* *(Overestimation of your own influence or agency)*
---
### Step 3: What is my overly optimistic viewpoint?
Now go to the opposite extreme. What would your thoughts sound like if you were overly confident or unrealistically positive? Again, watch for common distortions:
- *“Things will work out just fine.”* *(Underestimating the work and prep required)*
- *“My customers/team/family will figure it out on their own.”* *(Avoiding involvement)*
- *“I’ll knock this out—plenty of time, and I’m great at time management.”* *(Overconfidence)*
---
### Step 4: What is my balanced viewpoint?
Now comes the important part: step back and intentionally define a balanced view—one that recognizes the realities of both risk and potential.
- *“While there is some risk of \_\_\_\_\_\_, I can mitigate this by \_\_\_\_\_\_.”*
*(Balance the risk of doing something vs. doing nothing.)*
- *“My team/family/customer needs my support—and they also need space and trust.” (Balance presence with empowerment.)*
- *“Time is limited—I’ll need to manage it carefully. Here's my step by step critical path” (Have a sequenced plan of action)*
- *“If I’ve contributed to problems, I’ll own that—and focus forward, not get stuck in guilt.” (Refuse to be paralyzed)*
- *“Doing A is not anti-thetical to doing B. If we (take step x and y) , we can do both A and B” (Challenge false trade-offs.)*
---
### Step 5: What is my plan of action?
Now, take that balanced viewpoint and turn it into a clear next step. What will you do with what you’ve just learned?
---
### Why this is helpful
As humans, we have the ability to hold multiple perspectives and shift between them. The problem? We’re often unaware we’re operating from an extreme—either overly negative or overly positive—and we confuse our current perspective with *reality*. We easily forget that *we get to decide* our outlook, and we can choose to adopt a balanced view.
Asking yourself, *“What is my fear-based viewpoint?”* helps surface hidden fears that may be clouding your judgment. Exploring the opposite extreme helps you define what’s unrealistic in the other direction. And somewhere in the middle is a *balanced*, grounded perspective you can act on.
That’s where clarity and momentum come from.
👉 Related reading if you want to keep learning: S3T Playbook: [Flipping the Script: Understanding and Changing Internal & Macro Narratives](https://www.s3t.org/changing-internal-and-macro-narratives/).
See [Full List of S3T Playbooks](https://www.s3t.org/playbooks/)
---
### \[emerging tech notes\]
Photo by [Lukas](https://unsplash.com/@hauntedeyes?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### 🤖A Large Language Model passes the Turing Test for the first time
In [this UC San Diego study](https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.23674?ref=s3t.org), "GPT-4.5 was judged to be the human 73% of the time...first empirical evidence that any artificial system passes a standard three-party Turing test." Seems like a significant milestone, but one that will take us time to fully understand the implications.
I tested GPT 4.5 and asked it to find outcomes and reports from the event below. Instead, it located marketing pieces about the event, published weeks ago, and then spoke about them as if they were actual outcomes vs marketing buzz. When corrected it still failed to find useful information published *after* the actual event.
Good progress. Needs work.
---
[Courtesy of RenderCon](https://renderfoundation.com/rendercon?ref=s3t.org)
### AI & Onchain Render Networks: Slow progress
[RenderCon 2025](https://renderfoundation.com/rendercon?ref=s3t.org) happened this week in a smallish venue in Hollywood. The event showcased partnerships with AI players including THINK Agents, an interesting decentralized AI play which incidentally, I think has a correct theory of the future about tokenized ownership of AI/Robots being the stocks and 401Ks of the future. (See [https://docs.thinkagents.ai/roadmap](https://docs.thinkagents.ai/roadmap?ref=s3t.org)).
However exciting these ideas are, they are still very far from any significant revenue income. The event itself did not do much for the Render Token price:
- At 12:01am April 15 the price was $4.02\. By 12 noon April 16th it was $3.75\.
- The price keeps sliding - currently at $3.70 down from $11.88 last May.
My guess is the investor/owners are selling tokens in order to sustain themselves and their continued development, and doing so at a rate that exceeds income from the user communities purchasing tokens for 3D rendering jobs. If there's a play here it's a long and risky one. Don't bet what you can't afford to lose. Get advice from qualified investment advisors and sources - this newsletter is not one of them :)
---
Photo by [CHUTTERSNAP](https://unsplash.com/@chuttersnap?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### \[economics notes\]
## 📉Top Reads to understand the economic situation
###
Systemic issues in the current financial system
Lyn Alden a highly respected economist and investor has written a book *Broken Money* ([summary here](https://www.lynalden.com/broken-money/?ref=s3t.org) is worth a read and lays out the main points), explaining in clear terms why most of us sense that something is wrong with the current financial status quo.
*"For the minority of the world’s population living in developed countries, the current monetary system tends to be broken in somewhat subtle ways, and comes out in the form of rising populism and a hollowing-out middle class over time. For the majority of the world’s population living in developing countries, it’s often broken in more obvious ways.*" - Lyn Alden, [*Broken Money*](https://www.lynalden.com/broken-money/?ref=s3t.org)
Alden notes currency devaluations imposed by the International Monetary Fund and the purchase of US dollars on the black market as signs that the current architecture is no longer working.
### Tariffs aren't the problem, but how they're being used
In 2004 Nobel economist Paul Samuelson [proved that globalization caused US workers to lose more in wages than they gained from cheap imported goods](https://www2.hawaii.edu/~noy/362texts/samuelson.pdf?ref=s3t.org). From this perspective, the current administration seems to be fumbling a huge opportunity to actually do something beneficial for the US economy. As [Lori Wallach explains in this excellent analysis](https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/democrats-misguided-criticism-of-trump-tariffs-by-lori-wallach-2025-03?ref=s3t.org), the current chaos isn't caused by the tariffs themselves, but by the *uncoordinated ways they are being used*.
Highlights:
- "As offshoring has moved into higher-wage work, the main premise of free trade gains – that even if some people lose their jobs, everyone benefits from access to cheaper imported goods – has collapsed."
- "While the US has by far the largest chronic trade deficit, 66 countries are in the same position, while 19 countries, including China, Germany, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan, rack up chronic global trade surpluses"
- "If deficit countries united to raise tariffs on surplus countries, it would not only help rebalance trade but also benefit their workers."
---
**For Full Access Members:** See the [S3T Economic Dashboard](https://www.s3t.org/dashboard/) for the Top 500+ US & International real-time economic indicators.
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### 4.11.2025 - Avoid the Horse Shoe Trap
URL: https://www.s3t.org/horse_shoe_trap/
Last updated: 2025-04-11T05:28:08.000Z
*Your AI innovation effort needs all the good luck it can get. One tweak will raise your odds of success significantly.*
S3T PodCast April 11 - Avoid the Horseshoe Trap
0:00
/957.1004081632653
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---
### 🧭 **Top Insights in this Issue: Avoid the “Horse Shoe Trap”**
*Innovation stalls when the Problem Owner and Solution Owner are separated by layers of intermediaries—leading to delays, misunderstandings, and failed initiatives.*
🧩 **Put the Right People Together**
Innovation flourishes when the person experiencing the problem collaborates directly with the person capable of solving it. *Direct connection = better insights + faster progress.*
📡 **Fix the Flow of Information**
Instead of info traveling *up and over* org charts, prioritize *across-the-table* conversations that align tech, support, and business teams for smoother execution.
🚧 **Spot Organizational Red Flags**
Look out for decision-makers removed from real problems, disconnected reporting lines, and gaps between authority and knowledge. These are early signs of a Horse Shoe Trap.
⚙️ **Change How You Communicate**
Move beyond traditional status updates. Shift toward insight-sharing spaces where *real-time learning* happens between problem solvers and solution builders.
🌱 **De-risk Innovation, Accelerate Learning**
This simple shift enables faster pivots, smarter AI use cases, and better outcomes—not just in tech, but across your entire org.
---
### \[perspective\]
## **🏇What stalls meaningful innovation: the Horse Shoe Trap**
*Teams frequently struggle to bring ideas to reality, whether in AI or other spaces. Some trial and error is unavoidable, but smart teams are increasing their rate of success by learning to avoid an organizational glitch we call "the Horse Shoe Trap".*
Click to Zoom
## This was going to be great...
No doubt you've been there. I have, many times. We had what sounded like a great idea. Leadership gave the green light. We jumped in - all excited. **Weeks or months later, the team had to admit the idea wasn't workable.** Over and over this pattern plays out as organizations adopt new technologies, try to find good use cases for AI or drive other kinds of improvements.
*Can these scenarios be prevented?*
Some trial and error is always inevitable, especially where new technology or new ideas are in play. **But leading organizations are learning how to watch for the Horse Shoe Trap and turn it to their advantage so they connect more frequently with success.** Traditionally horse shoes are good luck. The "horse shoe trap" is not.
Photo by [Hannah Wei](https://unsplash.com/@herlifeinpixels?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### How to spot the Horse Shoe Trap: Diagnostic Questions
- **Who is closest to the problem?** Who has clearest line of line into the actual problem to solve. The actual pain point...who is experiencing that right now? This is what we call the "Problem Owner" ...they have a problem, they know it, and they are highly motivated to focus on solving it.
- **Who is closest to the solution?** Who has the technical or engineering knowledge of how to solve that problem in a very feasible way? This is the "Solution Owner". They have a proven ability to bring a specific kind of effective solution.
- Is the Problem Owner and Solution owner working directly together? Are those two individuals or teams working directly together? OR are they separated by intermediaries?
When you look at the horse shoe visual above, it highlights the problem of **too many intermediaries**. Key messages and insights get delayed, translated, or lost. Frequently orchestration, sequencing, prioritization is coming from the part of the org that is furthest removed from the problem. That lack of direct line of sight can cause unrealistic goals or misplaced priorities.
But in the corrected view on the right of the diagram, the entire set of participants are better positioned for rapid learning and success.
- The collaboration of the Problem Owner with the Solution Owner becomes a source of insight.
- From their collaboration information flows out to all stakeholders so they can be ready to support the success of the initiative.
Some examples of critical information flow:
- Here's where we really need help!
- Here's what we're realizing about this problem
- When we solve this problem, here's what's going to change (for the org, for processes, customers, customer support teams etc)
- For the solution to work here's what we need (from tech teams, Info Security, etc)
- We think we'll have to do something different (than previous expectations, rules, strategies, etc) - we need guidance on how to approach this.
This way of working de-risks AI or other innovation efforts by enabling more rapid learning and insights for the entire set of participants. It also preserves the ability of the teams to pivot as they get better understanding of the problem and find better ways to solve it.
### The Horse Shoe Trap applies beyond tech innovation & large organizations - what to watch for
Yes, you may see a similar horse shoe effect outside of IT or even corporate environments.
1. Watch for any cases where people who are one or more steps removed from the problem are attempting to prescribe how to solve the problem.
2. Watch for cases where information flows up and over ...up through one chain of command and then over to another part of the organization, then down through that chain of command. When you see that, you need to intervene. Get the people who are closest to the problem and closest to the solution working *directly* together, surrounded by their stakeholders and supporters. **This is what a highly responsive organization looks like.**
3. Watch for knowledge - authority gaps: decision-makers being asked to make decisions about things they don’t understand.
In general be alert for any signs that something is interfering with your ability to bring problem owners and solution owners together so they can directly collaborate.
Photo by [Sigmund](https://unsplash.com/@sigmund?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### How do you help an organization become aware and avoid the Horse Shoe Trap?
1. **Focus on the 2 roles that matter in innovation:**
1. **Problem Owner** \- The team or person(s) closest to the problem. They have direct first hand understanding of the problem and they currently experience it every day. This is key.
2. **Solution Owner** \- this is the team that is capable of using technology or other enablers in a very effective way to solve problems. They have proven this through what they have built and are building.
2. **This enables a different approach to organizational communication and reporting:**
1. Typically orgs have a series of status meetings or standups where the latest information is communicated up or down. Visually this looks like a pyramid with lines of communication moving up the pyramid from project teams to management then to executives. Because this arrangement is so vulnerable to horse shoe traps, you want to think about this differently: think about the spaces where insights are being spawned by the collaboration of Problem Owners with Solution Owners.
2. Ask your program leadership team members for their recommendations on how best to adjust accordingly. Share and discuss the "Horse Shoe Trap" with them. This will help everyone become aware of how we can accelerate our path to desired outcomes.
3. Helping individual team members mature in their communication. Some things need to be communicated up to the next level of management and some need to be communicated directly over to a counterpart on another team. Helping team members be clear on expectations of when to do what can reduce a significant percentage of issues.
### 🍀Best of luck
We think of horseshoes as bringing good luck. The Horse Shoe Trap has brought a lot of *bad luck* to organizations. The good news is now you know what to watch for so you can address it and set your team's up for success!
Photo by [jose aljovin](https://unsplash.com/@josealjovin?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
**🎁 Who do you know who could benefit from what you learned here today? Take a moment and share with them!**
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### 4.4.2025 - Why important stuff stalls - the root cause you're overlooking
URL: https://www.s3t.org/4-4-2025-apr-4-2/
Last updated: 2025-04-04T07:33:56.000Z
*Its ironic how often truly important stuff stalls - and how often we mistakenly think it's because we don't have time.*
S3T Podcast April 4
0:00
/815.9085714285715
1×
🎧 Listen here or [on Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/episode/4QrDpXONnwizvaleecloAh?si=qqS8x4hCQgm57gCFGbjXHA&ref=s3t.org)
---
### In this Issue
**🚀 When important stuff stalls:** **3 Tweaks to Unlock Action**
1️⃣ *Identity* – Be the person who does it
2️⃣ *Emotional connection* – Feel the future now
3️⃣ *Momentum* – Start with a friction-free trigger
These unlock follow-through and make your most important goals second nature.
📉 **Transitory Inflation 2.0**
Powell revives the term “transitory” to describe tariff-driven inflation, while Goldman Sachs lowers S&P 500 targets and raises recession odds.
🤖 **AI & Robots in the Workforce**
From robot dogs with digital nervous systems to GenAI prompting skills, the future of work is shifting. But employees aren’t ready—less than 10% are GenAI-proficient.
⚙️ **Institutional Doubts & Tech Hype**
Should AI run the government? Some call it magical thinking. Meanwhile, GenAI agents are falling short in reliability and interoperability, per CB Insights.
🧠 **Why We Don’t Follow Through (Even When It Matters)**
Smart people still procrastinate key priorities. It’s not about time—it’s about energy, emotion, and *identity*.
---
### \[macro-economics\]
## **📈Transitory inflation 2.0**
- Powell is [using the word "Transitory" again](https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20250319.pdf), this time to describe inflation driven by tariffs.
- Goldman Sachs [lowers near term S&P 500 target, raises odds of a recession](https://www.barrons.com/articles/goldman-sachs-sp500-target-recession-782620c3?ref=s3t.org).
- Can robots fill the economic gap left by falling birth rates? [EV discusses with Kevin Kelly founder of Wired](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/azeem-azhars-exponential-view/id1172218725?i=1000699980255&ref=s3t.org). To put this in context, see [Growth in a Shrinking World](https://www.s3t.org/growth-in-a-shrinking-world-2/).
- Full Access Members: See the [S3T Economic Dashboard](https://www.s3t.org/dashboard/) for the Top 500+ US & International real-time economic indicators during this volatile week.
- Highly recommended resource: [MIT's Living Wage Calculator](https://livingwage.mit.edu/?ref=s3t.org): look up a state and county, then it tells you the hourly wage required to cover living expenses.
---
### \[emerging tech\]
## **🤖AI as a teammate**
- Essay: If we train an LLM on government data, will it run the country better than current institutions? [Henry Farrell smells magical thinking](https://www.programmablemutter.com/p/should-agi-preppers-embrace-doge?ref=s3t.org).
- [Section's AI Proficiency Report](https://www.sectionschool.com/ai/the-ai-proficiency-report?ref=s3t.org): Teaching employees effective GenAI prompting skills is **more important than picking the perfect LLM or platform**. Per this report, less than 10% of current employees are competent in using AI in their day to day work.
- CB Insights has assembled an excellent index of [where Generative AI Agents are failing to meet the expectations of their customers](https://www.cbinsights.com/research/ai-agents-buyer-interviews-pain-points/?ref=s3t.org): Reliability, proprietary semantic layers, and lack of interoperability were frequently cited concerns.
- Intuicell claims it has innovated a "Digital nervous system" that makes robots capable of realtime learning. See the [robot dog Luna in action (Youtube video)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kbh-K6zrjtk&ref=s3t.org), and the [white paper describing the approach](https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.15130?ref=s3t.org). (My sense: this needs peer review and independent confirmation).
---
### \[perspective\]
##
**🪞Why important stuff stalls - the root cause you're overlooking**
I regularly meet people who are smart, conscientious, and doing amazing work - BUT inevitablythere's **something that they feel terrible about.** It's an important project or task that keeps getting pushed off into the future. They're almost embarrassed to admit how long this has been dragging out, and still not done. Or still not even started.
Is there something like this in your list of goals? If so, I'm going to share something that will help. You are not alone or unusual. This is common. And it twists us up because it's paradoxical...like we can't understand why this one thing that we acknowledge is really important to us - just isn't getting done. And it happens to everyone, even highly successful individuals.
We all have things we *know* we need to do— key actions that will help us grow our business, clear the path for innovation, reset our portfolio or org structure, or - on a personal level - improve our health, or strengthen key relationships.
We might even add these very important items to our to-do lists or block out time on our calendar. Or tell ourselves we're going to do this by x date. But somehow, these important activities still get crowded out.
### The False Remedy: More Time
We often conclude that the important things aren't getting done because we don't have enough time. We tell ourselves "we need more time" or "we just need to make time" as if we can add new hours to the day. While its true that time boxing and scheduling is an important skill, there's also something else that we often lose sight of:
**Work is elastic.** The amount of time it takes to complete a task **can vary widely.** The amount of time it takes to do a specific task can vary depending on:
- Your energy level
- Your mental alertness
- Your proficiency: top-of-mind knowledge based on doing this kind of task recently and repeatedly.
- Whether or not you have the right tool for the job. This was always true, but it's going to be exponentially true as AI agents become day to day working teammates.
All this to say, if important things aren't getting done even when you schedule them, then we need to dig deeper than "finding the time." **The root cause has nothing to do with time.** Making a list priorities is great, setting blocks of time for tasks is great, but if you want to unleash your full potential, read on.
## **3 Tweaks to Turn Your Priorities into Effective Action**
Simply making to-do's or scheduling a task isn’t enough. There are **3 tweaks** you can make to turn your priority tasks into action.
### 1️⃣ **Identity: Become the Kind of Person Who Does This Regularly**
- Instead of thinking of an action as something you *should* do, integrate it into your self-concept. Think of yourself as someone who does this.
- Example: Instead of saying, *“I need to exercise more,”* reframe it as **“I am a person who prioritizes my health and movement daily.”**
- You may think this is silly, but it works. When a behavior is part of your *identity*, consistency follows naturally.
### 2️⃣ **Emotional Connection: Visualize the Future Benefits as If They’re Already Happening**
- We prioritize what we feel deeply connected to.
- Regularly spend time **visualizing the outcome**—not just in an abstract way, but in a vivid, personal way that excites you.
- Example: If your goal is to market your product more consistently, don’t just schedule time for it. Instead, **imagine the feeling of seeing new customers excited about what you offer, hearing their success stories, and watching your business grow.**
- When you connect emotionally to the future result, it shifts from a “should” to a “must.”
### 3️⃣ **Momentum & Commitment Ritual: Attach the Activity to a Small, Unskippable Trigger**
- The hardest part of any habit is starting.
- Design a **tiny activation ritual**—something so small that it eliminates the friction of getting started.
- Example: If you struggle to follow through on building relationships with investors, commit to **sending just one short email or message each morning before checking social media.**
- If you want to work out more, start with **putting on your workout clothes immediately after waking up** (and laying them out the night before so you can grab them when you first wake up). Often, a small first step will lead naturally into the full activity.
### **Why These 3 Tweaks are so effective**
✅ When something becomes part of your **identity**, you don’t need external motivation—you do it because it’s *who you are.*
✅ When you **emotionally connect** to the outcome, you stop negotiating with yourself.
✅ When you **eliminate friction** by using small activation rituals, you remove the biggest barrier: starting.
### **How to Apply This Today**
For any goal that keeps slipping, ask yourself:
1️⃣ **Who is the kind of person that does this consistently?** (Identity)
2️⃣ **How will I feel once I’ve followed through?** (Emotional Connection)
3️⃣ **What’s my unskippable trigger to start?** (Momentum)
Once you internalize these three elements, your most important actions stop feeling like tasks—and start becoming second nature.
### Build your personal effectiveness and time management skills with these lessons from the Change Leadership Learning Series:
- [Making time](https://www.s3t.org/making-time-to-lead-change/) \- Leading change takes extra time - here's a proven way to maximize what you can do with your available time.
- [Layers of work](https://www.s3t.org/using-layers/) \- Instead of seeing life as a futile quest for focus time, Layers gives you a proven way to orchestrate your focus more effectively.
- [5 Building blocks for good planning habits](https://www.s3t.org/building-blocks-for-good-planning-habits/) \- How to build daily, weekly, and monthly planning habits that take you toward your goals.
Click here for an overview of the full [Change Leadership Learning Series](https://www.s3t.org/change-leadership-learning-series/).
###
### **\[panoramas\]**
- [Health](https://www.s3t.org/panorama-health/)
- [Macro](https://www.s3t.org/panorama-macro/)
- [Innovation](https://www.s3t.org/panorama-innovation/)
- [Habitat](https://www.s3t.org/panorama-habitat/)
- [Energy](https://www.s3t.org/panorama-energy/)
- [About S3T Panoramas](https://www.s3t.org/panoramas-about/)
*Thank you for reading, sharing and recommending S3T! Have a great weekend, and a great week ahead!*
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### 3.28.2025 Healthcare AI investing - near/mid/long term
URL: https://www.s3t.org/3-march-28/
Last updated: 2025-03-28T01:34:05.000Z
*If you're building a healthcare company or product, you want to be clear about where your revenue will come from. And you want to be VERY clear about where it can't come from.*
S3T Podcast 3.28.2025 Healthcare AI investing - near/mid/long term
0:00
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🎧 Listen here or [on Spotify](https://creators.spotify.com/pod/show/gets3t/episodes/Healthcare-AI-investing---nearmidlong-term-e30p2qj?ref=s3t.org)
---
### 🧭 In this Issue
- 📉 **Big Tech isn't the whole story** – The Magnificent 7 are losing steam in 2025, and smart investors are scanning beyond them for value-creating, cost-reducing AI plays in healthcare.
- 🔒 **AI in healthcare hits a speed bump** – Security concerns are slowing GenAI adoption, pushing attention to players who can balance innovation with trust (e.g., Snowflake, Databricks).
- 💸 **Patients & governments are tapped out** – Future revenue likely won't come from them, but from disrupting incumbent margins with leaner operating models.
- 🧱 **Mid-term disruption needs deregulation** – If barriers drop, new entrants could shift dollars from admin overhead to actual care—big opportunity, but high difficulty mode.
- 🧠 **Long game = rethink the financial engine** – True innovation lies in rethinking risk using smarter tools from broader finance and crypto—creating a sustainable model that works for all.
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
---
Photo by [Bryan Brittos](https://unsplash.com/@bryanbrittos?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### **\[macro\]**
- [Consumer Confidence fell again in March](https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence?ref=s3t.org) \- confidence about future employment is at a 12 year low.
- Economist's [visual guide to critical minerals and rare earths](https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2025/03/24/a-visual-guide-to-critical-materials-and-rare-earths?ref=s3t.org) \- and why they are the focus of 21st century geopolitics, like fossil fuels were to 20th century geopolitics.
- Recycling *minerals* will be a challenging but necessary part of 21st century energy and economic growth. [What to do with all those worn out EV batteries](https://knowablemagazine.org/content/article/technology/2022/what-will-it-take-to-recycle-ev-batteries?ref=s3t.org).
Photo by [Faded\_Gallery](https://unsplash.com/@faded%5Fgallery?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### **\[emerging tech\]**
- Harvard P&G study:[**Individuals using AI** matched the performance of ***teams* without AI**](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract%5Fid=5188231&ref=s3t.org). Teams using AI are more likely to think and communicate cross-functionally rather than default to language/frameworks of their disciplinary silos. To put this in context see: [Move people out of the middle - How AI will reshape the workforce 2025-2035](https://www.s3t.org/move-people-out-of-the-middle-how-ai-will-reshape-the-workforce-2025-2035/)
- [DeepSeek V3 0324](https://venturebeat.com/ai/deepseek-v3-now-runs-at-20-tokens-per-second-on-mac-studio-and-thats-a-nightmare-for-openai/?ref=s3t.org) is free open source, can run locally in a high end Mac, and outperforms its closed source competitors (OpenAI, Claude Sonnet etc).
- Time to re-read: [The 2023 "No Moat" leaked memo](https://semianalysis.com/2023/05/04/google-we-have-no-moat-and-neither/?ref=s3t.org#we-have-no-moat) from an unnamed Google AI engineer who saw this coming. AND...
- [*The Cathedral and the Bazaar*](https://lists.gnu.org/archive/html/groff/2021-11/pdfRt8tRop5yy.pdf?ref=s3t.org) \- the original realization that open source projects have advantages closed source projects can't replicate. (See also [Wikipedia notes on how this impacted software](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The%5FCathedral%5Fand%5Fthe%5FBazaar?ref=s3t.org).)
- Alibaba Chair Joe Tsai [warns of a Data Center bubble](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-25/alibaba-s-tsai-warns-of-a-bubble-in-ai-datacenter-buildout?ref=s3t.org) \- and [EU firms look for ways to abandon US cloud services](https://www.wired.com/story/trump-us-cloud-services-europe/?ref=s3t.org).
- Quantum startups are making headlines: [PsiQuantum raises $750m in a round led by BlackRock](https://www.reuters.com/technology/quantum-computing-startup-psiquantum-raising-least-750-million-6-billion-2025-03-24/?ref=s3t.org). NVIDIA is [building a Quantum research center in Boston](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-to-build-accelerated-quantum-computing-research-center?ref=s3t.org).
---
Photo by [Ibrahim Rifath](https://unsplash.com/@ripey%5F%5F?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### **\[perspective\]**
## How Investors & Innovators should be dissecting the AI revolution in US healthcare
*The following Near/Mid/Long term view is intended to help you construct your own independent view of the Healthcare industry so you and your advisors can make decisions about what investments are best for your goals.*
### 🔭Near-Term: 2025-2026 - look beyond the 7
The [Magnificent 7 is off to a rough start in 2025](https://get.ycharts.com/resources/blog/what-happened-to-the-magnificent-seven-stocks/?ref=s3t.org), down an average of \~14%. The extreme concentration of growth in just 7 tech/AI firms isn't sustainable. How likely is it that the Magnificent 7 will turn out to be the *exact* 7 pillars of the future economy? Is there a chance that one or more of these 7 have overhyped expectations and won't have the same bright futures as the others?
Right now there is a lot of focus on AI as a panacea for healthcare. While some value is being realized, [46% of strategy teams say security and privacy risks are slowing their adoption of GenAI](https://www.cbinsights.com/research/report/corporate-strategy-generative-ai-adoption-success/?ref=s3t.org).
This combination of factors is prompting savvy investors to look beyond the Magnificent 7\. *Is there an Impressive 14 or even a Respectable 28?*
It comes down to an investment strategy question: Are we betting on expansion, or just bracing for a crash?
Examples of entities that may be positioned to benefit as healthcare and the broader market figures out AI:
- Salesforce seems to be [driving AI agent adoption in insurance](https://research.cbinsights.com/quick-6-predictions?ref=s3t.org).
- Eli Lilly may be positioned to continue to benefit from GLP-1s.
- Snowflake and Databricks (note: Databricks is private) have leaned into HIPAA cloud compliance in order to gain marketshare in US healthcare.
- AI Security and AI Insurance is starting to get the attention it deserves. These players are breaking ground on solutions that will likely take hold and gain momentum over time.
There are many other examples. **A suggested filter:**
- Consider which investment options drive up the cost of healthcare vs enable increased cost effectiveness for healthcare.
- Short term money grabs historically don't provide reliable bets - they aren't driving broader benefits and solely contribute to imbalances.
- Someone convinced they're smart enough to outrun reality might do so for a cycle or two, but it ultimately comes down to this: syphoning $$$ away from people in need doesn't create a growing economy. It does the opposite.
### 💥Mid Term: 2026-2030 - disrupt the incumbents
If you expect 3-5 year revenue growth and ROI from the companies you're building or investing in, you have to think about **where that revenue is going to come from**. **And, in the case of healthcare, where it *won't come from***:
- Patients - Medical debt is at all time highs. Growth plans that assume increased out of pocket purchases from patients will likely stall.
- Government - Fed Government debt is *also* at all time highs, and State/Local Government fortunes are tied to those of the Federal Government. If your product/company assumes it can grow by tapping into Government largesse, think again. (Related note: this is the rather large horsefly in the ointment of the payer and payvidor strategies that double down on government business.)
This leaves entrepreneurs and investors with one target: The industry incumbents that are currently taking the lion's share of healthcare dollars.
Their margins = your opportunity space.
Caveat: Disrupting incumbents *in a regulated industry* (like healthcare) is not an easy game. But the next 5 years might be the best time to go for it - if the current administration de-regulates the industry to the point of breaking down the regulatory barriers to entry that very effectively shield healthcare's incumbents from disruption. This - *possibly* \- could create openings for disruptors to unleash more efficient operations and risk management models.
If this happens, we will see a transfer of value/revenue from a set of incumbents to a set of newcomers - who hopefully operate with smaller margins so that a larger percent of each healthcare dollar can go to healthcare outcomes delivery vs. administrative process. One can hope.
### 🛠️Long-Term: 2030+ fix the financial model
The longer future of healthcare is tangled up in the question of - will we ever address the fundamental issue of economic distortion? The mental model assumptions underpinning the US healthcare system fall apart under objective scrutiny. The only thing that keeps them "working" (a stretch) is the continued belief that the industry will be able to continue extracting more and more $$ from taxpayers and patients. Year after year, the industry skates onto thinner and thinner ice as government debt and household medical debt sets new records.
To sketch this in a few key points:
- Across healthcare, there is an intuitive grassroots convergence on the need to **fix the industry's flawed approach to managing risk.** The current approach seeks to protect healthcare insurers from risk of insolvency, but not healthcare providers. It also seeks to protect patients from physical suffering but not financial suffering.
- This approach is compelled by a misguided "moral hazard" logic that actually does not apply to the realities in healthcare. (See [Moral Hazard and Healthcare](https://www.s3t.org/moral-hazard/) for an explainer). This misapplication provides protection from some participants, but makes the overall system worse.
- And this diagnosis applies to *both* private and public insurance models - both have the same fundamental problem of flawed risk management - it does not matter whether the source of funding is insured membership or taxpayers.
- As compelling/obvious as this may seem, financial leaders across the industry struggle to agree on the how to approach a "post-moral hazard" model - primarily because healthcare has operated in isolation from the full set of financial instruments used by the broader risk industries. One might argue they were perhaps too comfortable to be motivated toward more effective financial innovation.
- Other branches of risk (broader insurance, reinsurance and hedge funds for example) have developed much larger, more creative toolboxes for addressing risks of different types...including in scenarios where a "moral hazard" factor doesn't exist, or is too obfuscated to map into underwriting models.
Taking these points together: The biggest winners in the long term future of healthcare could be players willing to innovate new financial approaches for affordability and sustainability. How would they do this?
- Cross germinating models from other arms of insurance and risk management.
- Starting with completely new sets of financial building blocks such as those being currently experimented with in the non-rug pull sectors of Crypto.
There are some fascinating opportunities in this space, but it will take patience to find and nurture them. I am very curious to see how AI and crypto related technologies might converge to enable a completely different financial model for healthcare.
It's going to be exciting to see who steps forward to take the lead in innovating more affordable and effective healthcare.
Again, none of this is advice, or a 'greenlight' that its safe to proceed ...these are questions for investors and their trusted advisors to answer on their own.
### Deeper Dive for Paid Members
- [S3T Panorama for Healthcare](https://www.s3t.org/panorama-health/) \- landscape, strategic trends & issues
- [Learning Path for Healthcare Change Leaders](https://www.s3t.org/learning-path-for-healthcare-leaders/) \- What to unlearn to increase your positive impact.
*Thank you all for reading and sharing S3T! Feel free to* [*DM me on LinkedIn*](https://www.linkedin.com/in/ralphperrine/?ref=s3t.org) to *discuss what you're learning and working on.*
### Move people out of the middle - How AI will reshape the workforce 2025-2035
URL: https://www.s3t.org/move-people-out-of-the-middle-how-ai-will-reshape-the-workforce-2025-2035/
Last updated: 2025-03-21T02:23:32.000Z
*The Great Resignation was nothing. Prepare for the Great Re-allocation.*
---
Move people out of the middle - AI reshapes the workforce
0:00
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*🎧 Listen here or* [*listen on Spotify*](https://creators.spotify.com/pod/show/gets3t/episodes/Move-people-out-of-the-middle---How-AI-will-reshape-the-workforce-2025-2035-e30f73p?ref=s3t.org)
### In this Issue
🔁 **From Great Resignation to Great Reallocation**
The job-hopping era is over—AI is now reallocating capital, talent, and opportunity. Leaders must prepare for a workforce realignment, not just attrition.
🤖 **AI isn’t just tech—it’s a new economic force**
AI is shifting job value away from operations (execution) toward *planning* (innovation) and *outcomes* (oversight, governance). Strategic and creative roles will surge while execution-based roles shrink.
📉 **Operations shrink, bookends expand**
By 2035:
- Operations drop from 72% ➡️ 45%
- Planning & Ideation grow from 20% ➡️ 35%
- Outcomes Measurement jump from 8% ➡️ 20%
🎯 **New talent priorities for orgs**
Upskill broadly in AI, strategy, compliance & governance. Redesign job families. Focus hiring and development on roles that complement AI, not compete with it.
📚 **Future of learning & hiring is in flux**
College ROI is falling. Real-time skills matter more than resumes. New learning models—prompt-sharing, tiger teams, AI-human co-learning—will redefine how we train and source talent.
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
---
### **\[org strategy\]**
Photo by [Luis Benito](https://unsplash.com/@luissh96?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## The Great Resignation was nothing. Prepare for the Great Re-allocation.
The Great Resignation took many leaders by surprise, as workers job-hopped in search of better pay, flexibility, and purpose. That wave is over - welcome to the [Great Stay](https://recruitonomics.com/the-great-stay-has-the-job-market-lost-its-dynamism/?ref=s3t.org). The prospect of pay raises has been [erased by salary deflation](https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/careers/salary-deflation-workers-new-jobs-0b2e1a1f?ref=s3t.org).
A much larger shift has begun.
We could call it the **Great Reallocation.** The Great Resignation caught organizations by surprise butmost were able to adjust. The Great Reallocation won't be so forgiving. The time to start preparing is now.
### The AI & Jobs conversation: What's getting overlooked
You're probably no stranger to the constant reports on how AI will impact jobs. Most credible economic forecasts indicate a **significant restructuring of workforce composition by 2030–2035** due to AI.
A sampling:
- Deloitte - [AI at a crossroads: Building trust](https://technode.global/2024/12/05/deloitte-report-fewer-than-two-thirds-of-organizations-in-sea-believe-their-employees-have-the-capabilities-to-use-ai-responsibly/?ref=s3t.org): Organizations will need **massive growth in AI governance and risk management roles**.
- Oxford - [How Robots Change the World](https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/resource/how-robots-change-the-world/?ref=s3t.org): 20 million manufacturing jobs will be lost to robots by 2030\.
- PWC - [*AI's Impact on jobs, in five stats*](https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/c-suite-insights/the-leadership-agenda/AI-jobs-impact.html?ref=s3t.org): 4.8x productivity growth in business operations with 27% drop in hiring.
- WSJ - [Tech Jobs Have Dried Up - and Arent' Coming Back Soon](https://www.wsj.com/tech/tech-jobs-artificial-intelligence-cce22393?ref=s3t.org) \- drop in hiring of entry level tech workers.
- HBR - [How Gen AI Could Change the Value of Expertise](https://hbr.org/2025/03/how-gen-ai-could-change-the-value-of-expertise?ref=s3t.org): companies must reshape their orgs and "rethink their talent-management strategies."
- Brookings Study - [*Generative AI, the American worker, and the future of work*](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/generative-ai-the-american-worker-and-the-future-of-work/?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=The%20exposure%20data%20from%20OpenAI,of%20their%20work%20tasks%20impacted.): Generative AI will disrupt middle to high pay professions.
- McKinsey Digital [*Superagency in the workplace: Empowering people to unlock AI’s full potential*](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/superagency-in-the-workplace-empowering-people-to-unlock-ais-full-potential-at-work?ref=s3t.org)*:* Employees need to invest more in their employees.
- IMF - [AI Will Transform the Global Economy](https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/01/14/ai-will-transform-the-global-economy-lets-make-sure-it-benefits-humanity?ref=s3t.org): "In advanced economies, about 60 percent of jobs may be impacted by AI."
- CMU - [National Academies’ report on AI and the future of work](https://www.cmu.edu/news/stories/archives/2024/november/report-investigates-workforce-implications-of-ai?ref=s3t.org): AI is "reshaping demand for different types of human expertise."
- NC Depart of Commerce - [Insights on Generative AI and the Future of Work](https://www.commerce.nc.gov/news/the-lead-feed/generative-ai-and-future-work?ref=s3t.org): AI will reshape *white-collar professions*.
- ADP Research - [Most workers think AI will affect their jobs. They disagree on how](https://www.adpresearch.com/worker-sentiment-ai-impact/?ref=s3t.org): urgent need for upskilling and organizational re-design.
The conversation about AI and jobs is often framed in simple terms: Will AI replace jobs? Will it create new ones? Will it all balance out? But this thinking misses crucial details. **AI is not just a technology** **\- it's a new operating system, investment theme and increasingly an economic force.**
If you’re responsible for **talent strategy, hiring, learning & upskilling, or organizational design**, now is the time to get ahead of the curve. AI isn’t just making certain jobs obsolete—it’s shifting the entire landscape:
- Where capital is being re-allocated
- Where budgets will grow
- Where talent should be placed,
- Where the best opportunities are most likely to emerge
To prepare, we must move beyond the current approach of surveying *how employers and employees expect AI to change things*. We need a more complete view of **how AI investment, innovation and adoption are actively reshaping the workforce.**
### The Stakes for Winners vs Losers
This 2024 McKinsey study [*Rewired and running ahead*](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/rewired-and-running-ahead-digital-and-ai-leaders-are-leaving-the-rest-behind?ref=s3t.org) started to reveal the extreme differences in growth rates between those who lead with AI vs those who lag:
[Courtesy McKinsey](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/rewired-and-running-ahead-digital-and-ai-leaders-are-leaving-the-rest-behind?ref=s3t.org)
This is a retrospective view but current observations across multiple organizations support the same conclusions: **Orgs that lack AI Planning skills spend months and $millions with no luck** \- in sharp contrast to the rapid value delivery of teams that are strong in *four critical AI Planning skills*, as described in our paid content further below.
---
### **2 ways to learn and prepare this week:**
1. **S3T Free Edition: understand the key signals & trends:** We break down the latest data and insights on AI’s workforce impact, highlighting where shifts are already happening and what they mean for your career and organization.
2. **S3T Paid Edition: Take effective action for career and talent strategies:** For paid subscribers, we go deeper—mapping out the specific **roles, industries, and strategic moves** leaders should start making now, to future-proof their teams and investments. We analyze how AI-driven innovation is shaping workforce trends and where **proactive leaders should focus now** to stay ahead.
👉 [**Upgrade to full access**](https://www.s3t.org/change-leadership-30-day-free-trial) with a free 30 day trial to get the strategic insights you need.
---
Photo by [Alex Kotliarskyi](https://unsplash.com/@frantic?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## 🔑"Move people out of the middle" - How AI will reshape the workforce 2025-2035
**AI will reshape economies by reducing human employment in operations & execution roles but expanding human workloads innovation and oversight/governance.** These expanding workloads will likely cause growth in job families in Planning & innovation functions as well as Outcomes measurement functions.
- **Business Operations will decline by 27%,** as automation takes over blue collar and white collar tasks.
- **Strategic & creative roles will grow from 20% to 35%,** fueling research, innovation, and AI-empowered decision-making.
- **AI governance and compliance will grow sharply,** ensuring AI remains ethical, secure, and aligned with human needs.
Companies that upskill their workforce in AI oversight, risk management, and strategic innovation will thrive.
To understand the unique shift that AI is driving, it's helpful to visualize the job market as 3 big segments: Planning, Operations and Outcomes...the before/during/after phases of business. These 3 segments are *not the same size* \- they do not employ the same numbers of people. In today's economy the Operations segment is by far the largest, book-ended by the smaller segments of Planning and Outcomes.
The following section explains.
## ***AI will reshape the workforce…***
## ***… the “book-ends” will expand as AI driven automation shrinks the middle:***
## **📌 The Workforce in 2035**
1. **Business Operations roles will shrink significantly** due to automation, falling from **72% of the workforce today to 45% by 2035**. AI-driven automation will replace a substantial portion of execution-based jobs, particularly in manufacturing, logistics, customer service, and administrative support.
2. **Planning & Ideation roles will nearly double**, growing from **20% to 35%**. AI dramatically lowers execution costs, allowing more resources to be allocated toward strategic thinking, innovation, and product development. As businesses can now execute ideas faster, more people will be needed to generate and manage these ideas.
3. **Outcomes Measurement will experience explosive growth**, expanding from **8% to 20%** of the workforce. With AI creating output at speeds up to **10x faster** than human workers, the need for **compliance, security, audits, governance, and AI risk management will increase significantly**. The regulatory and oversight workforce will have to **scale proportionally to AI's output acceleration** to maintain quality, fairness, and safety.
### **📊 Chart: Projected 2035 Workforce Distribution**
| **Category** | **% of Workforce (2035)** | **Change from 2024** |
| ------------------------ | ------------------------- | -------------------- |
| **Business Operations** | **45%** (down from 72%) | **↓ 27%** |
| **Planning & Ideation** | **35%** (up from 20%) | **↑ 15%** |
| **Outcomes Measurement** | **20%** (up from 8%) | **↑ 12%** |
| **Total** | **100%** | **✔** |
### 🔹 **Summary of the Shift:**
###
**Operations shrinks from 72% → 45%** (due to automation). The human employment aspect of the 2035 economy will be driven more by governance & innovation than sheer execution. Operations will still be crucial, but AI will take over much of the manual execution burden.
**Planning & Ideation nearly doubles from 20% → 35%** (more human effort shifts to innovation). This category will see significant expansion driven by:
- The need to address the higher due diligence workload associated with picking the right use cases, ensuring safe ethical use of AI.
- The addition of AI-enabled projects that were unfeasible with previous technologies.
**Outcomes Measurement expands from 8% → 20%** (AI oversight and compliance skyrockets). This jobs category will have to grow significantly, ensuring AI-driven productivity remains safe, compliant, and aligned with human values.
By 2035 the workforce is expected to be **rebalanced**: a smaller portion of the workforce in operational work, but a larger portion in the pre and post domains:
- **“Planning & Ideation”** (creative strategy, R&D, design, use case validation).
- **“Outcomes Measurement”** (human governance and oversight, quality assurance, compliance)
Now is the time to start preparing.
---
## 📌 What to do: Shift the Workforce to Growth Sectors and evolve your job families to include these new required AI roles.
Leaders who understand this shift will work to move workers "out of the shrinking middle" toward the expanding "book-end" segments of Planning and Outcomes.
Top priorities to start on right now:
**📚 Upskill for AI & Strategy** – Train workers in AI tools, data literacy,, strategic thinking, and change leadership so they can move into Planning & Ideation roles. Don't focus only on tech teams, include data operations, data governance, security, legal, HR and compliance teams.
**🛡️ Expand AI Oversight Careers** – Invest in compliance, security, and governance training to support the booming Outcomes Measurement sector.
**🔄 Redefine Operational Roles** – Transition middle-tier jobs into AI-augmented roles, focusing on managing, optimizing, and overseeing automation.
**💼 Define New Roles** \- As shown in the chart below a number of new roles will emerge to address the risks and opportunities driven by AI adoption and normalization in the business sector. Now is the time to begin defining these roles so they can be reasonably mature when the organization needs them in order to achieve quarterly and strategic goals.
The chart below provides suggested starting points for thinking about roles that will become crucial over the next few years. Note that some of the roles in the Outcomes category will have "feedback loop" relationships with many of the Planning roles.
Click to Zoom
### 📌 What to expect: headwinds in education and research
- **College is prohibitively expensive for most students**. Rising tuition costs make higher education financially inaccessible for many. Student debt burdens continue to outpace wage growth, raising questions about ROI.
- **High schools & universities struggle to stay relevant**. The accelerating pace of technology is shrinking the shelf life of traditional curricula. Many institutions fail to equip students with modern, job-ready skills.
- **Government research & education funding is declining**. Political trends & rising government debt are leading to budget cuts for education & research. Public funding for universities, STEM initiatives, and innovation programs is shrinking.
- **Death of the resume:** Companies are [realizing they need to validate skills in real-time](https://www.hirevue.com/blog/hiring/skills-first-hiring-rising-trend?ref=s3t.org), which makes the contents of resumes - whether degrees or past employment - less relevant.
In other words, it's increasingly about - what can you do right now, without the support of large budgets or programs, or long education pathways.
### 📌 What to explore: innovation in education and organizational design
As these traditional approaches of learning and career prep continue to age, **new approaches will be required** in order to supply the demand for AI-era workers. This raises several key questions:
- **Will Team approaches to robotic and Generative AI interaction become a dominant way of learning?** The practice of teaching and sharing prompt engineering offers an early glimpse of how education and learning could evolve. Likewise the rise of "tiger teams" - cross-disciplinary teams rapidly building new AI solutions in order to prove out use cases - shows another very promising form of active learning.
- **Will online gaming spawn new worker guilds?** 3D and AI tools are proliferating so rapidly in online gaming platforms, ([Roblox's AI tools for example](https://techcrunch.com/2025/03/17/roblox-releases-its-open-source-model-that-can-create-3d-objects-using-ai/?ref=s3t.org)) one can't help but wonder things like:
- Are online gaming communities the worker guilds of the future?
- Can red-teaming and other critical processes be gamified?
- Will Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs) merge with gaming communities to create the industrial engines of the future?
- **Will companion learning between humans and AI actually scale?** We already see examples of humans and AI learning together: Coders get faster/clearer about certain concepts, while the LLMs they're using get smarter thanks to the coder's feedback. Will this phenomenon scale enough to close skill and resource gaps?
- **How will online learning (think Khan Academy etc) merge or evolve** in the era of generative AI?
### The Stakes for Winners vs Losers
This 2024 McKinsey study [*Rewired and running ahead*](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/rewired-and-running-ahead-digital-and-ai-leaders-are-leaving-the-rest-behind?ref=s3t.org) started to reveal the extreme differential between those who lead with AI vs those who lag:
[Courtesy McKinsey](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/rewired-and-running-ahead-digital-and-ai-leaders-are-leaving-the-rest-behind?ref=s3t.org)
This is a retrospective view but current observations across multiple organizations support the same conclusions: **Orgs that lack AI Planning skills spend months and $millions with no luck** \- in sharp contrast to the rapid value delivery of teams that are strong in four critical AI Planning skills, as described below.
### Survival: 4 AI Planning skills every organization must build
- **Data focused use case validation**, backed by first-hand, detailed familiarity with key business problems and the data aspects that exacerbate process issues and/or offer solutions. Too often, AI projects and startups get launched before the stakeholders have any idea whether they actually have the data they need to make the idea work. When evaluating an AI use case, start with the data *first* \- see if the data that you have rights to can possibly provide the insight or answer to the problem that needs to be solved.
- **Strong AI tech** **development skills** for rapid solution delivery in a secure scalable environment. Rapid build out of ideas goes hand-in-hand with making about those. Build a rough working version as fast as possible test it with people who know firsthand the problem to solve.
- **Strong cross disciplinary collaboration on AI governance** to quickly navigate issues with clear-eyed understanding of risks in play vs fear-based risk aversion for comfort's sake.
- **Tech & analytics driven decision-making.** Leadership culture that is comfortable learning from engineers and data SMEs not just management consultants will get to ROI faster than the rest. Picking the right wayfinders for guidance makes all the difference. Smart looking PowerPoint slides always were kind of a liability. Going forward, they’ll be downright dangerous.
---
## Supporting Data on Projected Workforce Composition Changes
*The following sources provide data and projections on AI's impact on workforce distribution, as well as a rationale for constructing the estimated shifts in workforce composition 2025-2035.*
Looking at the big picture, most credible economic forecasts indicate a **significant restructuring of workforce composition by 2030–2035** due to AI.
- This [IBM Study](https://www.ibm.com/downloads/documents/us-en/10a99803fd2fdd77?ref=s3t.org) based on broad c-suite industry survey's indicates significant workforce shifts. Routine operational roles (manufacturing, assembly, basic office support, etc.) will shrink as a percentage of total employment, while both **high-skill creative roles and oversight/regulation roles will grow**.
- Early World Economic Forum projections forecast **structural shift of millions of jobs**: by 2025, 85 million jobs displaced *but 97 million new jobs created* in fields like data analysis, software development, and new specialties (See [Recession and Automation Changes Our Future of Work, World Economic Forum](https://www.weforum.org/press/2020/10/recession-and-automation-changes-our-future-of-work-but-there-are-jobs-coming-report-says-52c5162fce/?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=,jobs%20in%20next%20five%20years))
- Deloitte - [AI at a crossroads: Building trust](https://technode.global/2024/12/05/deloitte-report-fewer-than-two-thirds-of-organizations-in-sea-believe-their-employees-have-the-capabilities-to-use-ai-responsibly/?ref=s3t.org): Organizations will need **massive growth in AI governance and risk management roles**. *"Organisations with mature AI governance frameworks report a 28 percent increase in staff using AI solutions, and have deployed AI in three additional areas of the business. These businesses achieve nearly 5 percentage points higher revenue growth compared to those with less established governance."*
- Oxford - [How Robots Change the World](https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/resource/how-robots-change-the-world/?ref=s3t.org): 20 million manufacturing jobs will be lost to robots by 2030\.
- PWC - [*AI's Impact on jobs, in five stats*](https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/c-suite-insights/the-leadership-agenda/AI-jobs-impact.html?ref=s3t.org): Review of 500m job postings across 15 countries indicates 4.8x productivity growth in sectors most exposed to AI (business operations value creation), with 27% drop in hiring for these roles, but 3x growth and 25% wage premium in hiring for AI skills.
- WSJ - [Tech Jobs Have Dried Up - and Arent' Coming Back Soon](https://www.wsj.com/tech/tech-jobs-artificial-intelligence-cce22393?ref=s3t.org) \- companies are shifting focus toward developing AI and have slowed in their hiring of entry level tech workers.
- HBR - [How Gen AI Could Change the Value of Expertise](https://hbr.org/2025/03/how-gen-ai-could-change-the-value-of-expertise?ref=s3t.org): "In the next few years, the better part of 50 million jobs will be affected" and this will force companies to "reshape their organizational structures and rethink their talent-management strategies."
- Brookings Study - [*Generative AI, the American worker, and the future of work*](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/generative-ai-the-american-worker-and-the-future-of-work/?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=The%20exposure%20data%20from%20OpenAI,of%20their%20work%20tasks%20impacted.): 30% of all workers could see at least 50% of their occupation’s tasks disrupted by generative AI, and unlike previous automation of blue collar processes, Generative AI will disrupt middle to high pay professions - many of which are involved in managerial decision-making and operational analysis.
- McKinsey Digital [*Superagency in the workplace: Empowering people to unlock AI’s full potential*](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/superagency-in-the-workplace-empowering-people-to-unlock-ais-full-potential-at-work?ref=s3t.org)*:* Employees are adapting gen AI 3x faster than their leaders expect, and need to invest more in their employees - training them to succeed in an AI driven era - because skill gaps are slowing them down.
- IMF - [AI Will Transform the Global Economy](https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/01/14/ai-will-transform-the-global-economy-lets-make-sure-it-benefits-humanity?ref=s3t.org): "In advanced economies, about 60 percent of jobs may be impacted by AI."
- CMU - [National Academies’ report on AI and the future of work](https://www.cmu.edu/news/stories/archives/2024/november/report-investigates-workforce-implications-of-ai?ref=s3t.org): "AI will impact jobs by reshaping demand for different types of human expertise, making some types less valuable and others more valuable. This in turn can lead to changes in salaries and even to entirely new jobs requiring expertise people have not yet considered." AI will also change how people teach and learn.
- NC Department of Commerce - [Insights on Generative AI and the Future of Work](https://www.commerce.nc.gov/news/the-lead-feed/generative-ai-and-future-work?ref=s3t.org): Average AI Occupational Exposure (AIOE) scoring indicates that AI has high potential to reshape *white-collar professions*.
[Courtesy of NC Dept of Commerc](https://www.commerce.nc.gov/news/the-lead-feed/generative-ai-and-future-work?ref=s3t.org)e. Click to Zoom
- ADP Research - [Most workers think AI will affect their jobs. They disagree on how](https://www.adpresearch.com/worker-sentiment-ai-impact/?ref=s3t.org): Survey of 35k private sector workers in 18 countries reveals wide disparities in readiness and understanding of AI in the work force, and underscores need for more upskilling, and more intentional organizational re-design.
In summary, by 2035 the workforce is expected to be **rebalanced**: a smaller portion of the workforce in in hands-on operational work, but a larger portion in two key domains:
- **“Planning & Ideation”** (creative strategy, R&D, design, use case validation).
- **“Outcomes Measurement”** (human governance and oversight, quality assurance, compliance)
---
## Detailed Notes: Calculations & assumptions for AI-driven automation and workforce distribution by 2035
*The following sections provide the "homework" used to analyze available data and derive the estimated shifts in the workforce. Recommend careful study of these notes in order to construct your own* independent *point of view on how the coming changes impact your specific organization, investments or career path.*
### The Approach
1. Categorizing current allocations across 3 large groups: Planning (forward looking functions) Operations (execution, manufacturing, managing, delivering, supporting) and then Outcomes (auditing, measuring, analyzing, reporting on outcomes, and associated record keeping).
2. Using available sources to estimate the workforce allocation across these three groups. A larger share of the workforce is employed in the Operations group, with smaller shares employed in the Planning and Outcomes categories.
3. Evaluating the impact of AI and modern automation (including robotics) on these 3 categories.
1. While blue collar jobs have already been experiencing disruption from automation, AI will also begin to disrupt white collar jobs, particularly in operations management and administration - likely reducing the human time spent on today's version of compliance, quality testing, and outcomes measurement.
2. At the same time, in both the Planning and Outcomes jobs categories, new roles and expertise sets are emerging as AI reshapes the workforce. These are necessitated by the new kinds of threats and opportunities posed by AI, and will drive better opportunities for workers and graduates with the right skills.
The following notes provide detail on how the allocation shifts across the Plan/Operate/Outcome job categories were estimated.
### 1\. Business Operations Workforce Reduction
**Automation Displacement Trends:** Major studies forecast significant displacement of routine operational jobs by the 2030s as AI and robotics advance.
- McKinsey estimates that 15% (midpoint scenario) of current work hours globally could be automated by 2030 ([Jobs of the future: Jobs lost, jobs gained | McKinsey](https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/future-of-work/jobs-lost-jobs-gained-what-the-future-of-work-will-mean-for-jobs-skills-and-wages?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=Taking%20these%20factors%20into%20account%2C,workers%20and%20prevailing%20wage%20rates)), potentially displacing **400–800 million workers** (up to one-third of the global workforce) by 2030 ([800 million jobs could be lost to AI and Automation by 2030 - Medium](https://medium.com/leadership-by-design/800-million-jobs-could-be-lost-to-ai-and-automation-by-2030-26f78cf89b9c?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=Medium%20medium,automation%20and%20AI%20by%202030)).
- PwC similarly projects that by the mid-2030s automation could **impact 30–38% of jobs** in advanced economies (about 30% in the UK, \~38% in the US) ([PwC asks: Will robots steal our jobs?](https://calumchace.com/pwc-asks-will-robots-steal-our-jobs/?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=The%20key%20points%20Significant%20job,a%29%20the%20creation%20of)). These impacts will be uneven across sectors and roles, hitting certain operational fields hardest.
**Manufacturing & Logistics:** Roles involving physical, repetitive tasks in predictable environments are most vulnerable ([Jobs of the future: Jobs lost, jobs gained | McKinsey](https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/future-of-work/jobs-lost-jobs-gained-what-the-future-of-work-will-mean-for-jobs-skills-and-wages?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=The%20potential%20impact%20of%20automation,office%20transaction%20processing)).
- Oxford Economics research finds **robots could eliminate 20 million manufacturing jobs by 2030**, roughly 8.5% of the global manufacturing workforce ([Robots May Displace 20 Million Manufacturing Jobs by 2030 | IndustryWeek](https://www.industryweek.com/supply-chain/article/22027820/robots-may-displace-20-million-manufacturing-jobs-by-2030?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=Robots%20are%20on%20track%20to,developed%20nations%2C%20Oxford%20Economics%20says)). This “robot revolution” disproportionately affects routine factory work and warehousing/logistics tasks (e.g. assembly line operations, machine operators, warehouse pickers).
- Many displaced manufacturing workers have historically shifted into transport, construction, maintenance, or office support roles – yet **those categories (e.g. trucking, shipping, and clerical work) are themselves among the most vulnerable to automation in the next decade** ([Robots May Displace 20 Million Manufacturing Jobs by 2030 | IndustryWeek](https://www.industryweek.com/supply-chain/article/22027820/robots-may-displace-20-million-manufacturing-jobs-by-2030?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=The%20report%20highlights%20how%20the,automation%20over%20the%20next%20decade)). For example, autonomous vehicles and warehouse robots threaten a large share of logistics jobs, and self-checkout or AI-driven kiosks can reduce service roles in retail and food service.
**Service & Administrative Support:** White-collar routine jobs and administrative support functions are also at high risk. AI-driven software can automate data entry, bookkeeping, basic customer service, and clerical tasks.
- The World Economic Forum’s *Future of Jobs* analysis projects a sharp decline in roles like **data entry clerks, accounting and payroll clerks, and administrative assistants** by the mid-2020s as automation accelerates ([Recession and Automation Changes Our Future of Work, But There are Jobs Coming, Report Says > Press releases | World Economic Forum](https://www.weforum.org/press/2020/10/recession-and-automation-changes-our-future-of-work-but-there-are-jobs-coming-report-says-52c5162fce/?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=By%202025%2C%20automation%20and%20a,job%20creation%20is%20now%20slowing)).
- Previously the WEF projected that by 2025, **85 million global jobs could be displaced** by automation (particularly in these back-office and service roles), according to WEF ([Recession and Automation Changes Our Future of Work, But There are Jobs Coming, Report Says > Press releases | World Economic Forum](https://www.weforum.org/press/2020/10/recession-and-automation-changes-our-future-of-work-but-there-are-jobs-coming-report-says-52c5162fce/?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=,jobs%20in%20next%20five%20years)) ([Recession and Automation Changes Our Future of Work, But There are Jobs Coming, Report Says > Press releases | World Economic Forum](https://www.weforum.org/press/2020/10/recession-and-automation-changes-our-future-of-work-but-there-are-jobs-coming-report-says-52c5162fce/?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=By%202025%2C%20automation%20and%20a,job%20creation%20is%20now%20slowing)). There are currently no known measures quantifying how this impact has been realized.
- Looking toward 2035, multiple forecasts converge on roughly **a quarter to one-third of existing jobs being phased out** by AI/robotics. For instance, one analysis suggests automation might substitute for **25–30% of the workforce by 2035 in advanced economies** (far higher than in lower-wage countries) ([Future of Workplaces With AI | A3Logics Blog](https://www.a3logics.com/blog/the-future-impact-of-ai-in-companies-and-workforces?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=impact%20of%20services%20from%20Artificial,times%20the%20rate%20in%20India)) ([Future of Workplaces With AI | A3Logics Blog](https://www.a3logics.com/blog/the-future-impact-of-ai-in-companies-and-workforces?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=nations%20with%20comparatively%20elevated%20earnings%2C,times%20the%20rate%20in%20India)). In sum, occupations centered on routine production, predictable service tasks, transportation, and office support face double-digit percentage declines in employment share due to AI-driven efficiency gains.
The consensus is that **job displacement on the order of 20–30% of roles (hundreds of millions of jobs globally) is plausible by early-to-mid 2030s** ([AI could replace 2.4 million jobs in US by 2030| Forrester's report | Digital Watch Observatory](https://dig.watch/updates/ai-will-replace-2-4-million-jobs-in-us-by-2030-forresters-report?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=Generic%20AI%20may%20result%20in,industrial%20era)) ([Future of Workplaces With AI | A3Logics Blog](https://www.a3logics.com/blog/the-future-impact-of-ai-in-companies-and-workforces?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=impact%20of%20services%20from%20Artificial,times%20the%20rate%20in%20India)), with manufacturing, logistics, and clerical sectors seeing some of the largest contractions.
### 2\. Outcomes Measurement Workforce Growth (Governance, Compliance, Testing)
**Rationale on 10x Output and Oversight Needs:** If AI allows outputs to be generated at **10× (or higher) speed** than human workers, a critical question is whether oversight and quality-control functions must scale correspondingly. In principle, workforce devoted to governance, compliance, validation, and testing should grow in proportion to AI output to ensure standards are maintained.
If one AI system can do the work of 10 people, you might need roughly 10 times the auditing/testing effort to review its results, absent further automation of oversight itself. We see examples of output being higher that 10x in come cases (ie a generative AI tool can produce *more than* 10x the amount of code, documentation, music that a human individual or team could. So 10x is accepted as a reasonable figure for estimating purposes.
**Rationale and Industry Perspectives:** The need for expanded oversight is highlighted by experts concerned with AI accuracy and risks. For example, Deloitte analysts note that if *human fact-checking* of AI outputs becomes very labor-intensive, it can erode the productivity gains of using AI ([Responsible Use of Generative AI | Deloitte US ](https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pages/consulting/articles/responsible-use-of-generative-ai.html?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=creativity%20by%20parroting%20back%20something,gain%20by%20using%20generative%20AI)). This implies companies must invest in smarter validation processes (potentially including AI-driven QA tools or more human reviewers) to keep up with the flood of AI-generated content/code.
- Many organizations are already increasing roles in **AI governance and risk management**; IBM’s 2023 report found about **40% of their workforce will require reskilling for AI integration** (including adapting to new oversight and coordination tasks) ([AI could replace 2.4 million jobs in US by 2030| Forrester's report | Digital Watch Observatory](https://dig.watch/updates/ai-will-replace-2-4-million-jobs-in-us-by-2030-forresters-report?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=do%20not%20)).
- Similarly, the World Economic Forum observes a *“surge in demand for trained professionals to address AI governance needs,”* as responsible AI adoption becomes a priority ([AI governance trends: How regulation, collaboration, and skills demand are shaping the industry | World Economic Forum](https://www.weforum.org/stories/2024/09/ai-governance-trends-to-watch/?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=This%20article%20is%20part%20of%3A,for%20the%20Fourth%20Industrial%20Revolution)).
- New job titles like **AI auditors, ethicists, compliance officers, and quality analysts** are emerging to govern AI systems and their outputs. The AI governance market itself is growing \~45% annually ([AI Governance Market Share, Forecast - MarketsandMarkets](https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/ai-governance-market-176187291.html?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=MarketsandMarkets%20www,from%202024%20to%202029)), reflecting how organizations are ramping up oversight infrastructure.
In practical terms, as AI output scales, companies are likely to **increase headcount (and/or tools) in testing, validation, and regulatory compliance** to match it.
- For instance, software firms using generative AI for coding are hiring more testers and security reviewers to catch AI-introduced bugs and vulnerabilities.
- Financial institutions deploying AI decision systems are expanding compliance teams to audit algorithmic decisions for fairness and accuracy. **The equation above underscores a baseline expectation: a 10× jump in output could warrant on the order of 10× expansion in oversight effort** to maintain quality and trust.
- Some oversight tasks will themselves be augmented by AI, but industry consensus is that human judgment remains essential for governance. As one analysis put it, AI will *“reshape more jobs than it replaces”* ([AI could replace 2.4 million jobs in US by 2030| Forrester's report | Digital Watch Observatory](https://dig.watch/updates/ai-will-replace-2-4-million-jobs-in-us-by-2030-forresters-report?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=The%20company%E2%80%99s%202023%20Generative%20AI,AI%20than%20those%20earning%20%2490%2C000)) – many workers will shift into new support and supervisory roles that ensure the AI’s supercharged output is correct, safe, and aligned with goals.
### 3\. Planning & Ideation Workforce Growth
**Shifting Workforce Share to Planning:** As AI reduces human constraints in execution, the balance of work is expected to tilt more toward planning, strategy, and innovation. Currently, “Business Operations” roles make up about **63.3%** of the workforce versus **18.1%** in “Planning & Ideation” functions (a roughly 3.5:1 ratio of operational jobs to planning jobs). With AI taking over a large portion of execution tasks, that ratio is poised to narrow.
We can model this shift with a scaling relationship: if AI improves execution efficiency by a factor $F$ (i.e. one worker can oversee what $F$ workers used to execute), then the **relative share** of planning roles could increase by roughly that factor. For example, suppose $F = 2$ (AI doubles execution capacity per worker) – the planning-to-operations ratio might also roughly **double** in favor of planning. We can generally expect **planning workforce grows proportional to execution speed-up** while operations workforce shrinks proportional to it.
In less abstract terms, **as AI makes execution cheaper and faster, a greater portion of human talent and time can be devoted to creative ideation, strategy, and planning new ventures**. Freed from many manual tasks, organizations can tackle more projects and explore more innovations simultaneously – and do better at vetting and selecting use cases - but that requires more planners/designers to conceive and direct those projects.
We already see a trend toward this: non-routine cognitive jobs (creative, strategic roles) have been growing as a share of employment for decades, and this is expected to accelerate. The World Economic Forum notes that by mid-2020s, *“analytical thinking, creativity and flexibility”* are among the most in-demand skills ([Recession and Automation Changes Our Future of Work, But There are Jobs Coming, Report Says > Press releases | World Economic Forum](https://www.weforum.org/press/2020/10/recession-and-automation-changes-our-future-of-work-but-there-are-jobs-coming-report-says-52c5162fce/?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=,computing%20the%20top%20emerging%20professions)), reflecting an emphasis on human imagination and problem-solving. Many forecasts anticipate **new roles in research, product design, strategy, and innovation management** to proliferate as automation handles execution. McKinsey, for instance, projects that a sizable chunk (perhaps *8–9%* of the workforce by 2030) will be employed in job titles **that didn’t exist before** – largely in fields driven by new technology and innovation ([Jobs of the future: Jobs lost, jobs gained | McKinsey](https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/future-of-work/jobs-lost-jobs-gained-what-the-future-of-work-will-mean-for-jobs-skills-and-wages?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=match%20at%20L331%20If%20history,that%20have%20not%20existed%20before)).
**Proposed Scaling of Planning Share:** Using the current 63.3% vs 18.1% split as a baseline, consider a scenario by 2035 where AI automation has, say, cut the needed Operations workforce roughly in half (through productivity gains and task automation). If total employment remains stable, the **freed 30+ percentage points** can be reallocated to other functions. Even if only a portion of that goes into planning/ideation roles (with the rest to outcome oversight or entirely new fields), the planning share could increase significantly – potentially on the order of **1.5× to 2× its current level**. This implies planning/creative roles rising to perhaps 25–30% (or more) of the workforce, while pure execution roles correspondingly decline towards the 50% range or lower.
Even with more conservative assumptions, a substantial shift is expected – e.g. a 1.5× growth in planning share would make it \~27% of the workforce vs \~45% in operations (bringing the ratio to \~1:1.7, compared to 1:3.5 today).
**Feasibility and Supporting Insights:** Such redistribution is supported by the notion that **innovation becomes more feasible when execution is abundant**. As AI lowers the cost and time of doing tasks, companies can undertake more ambitious projects, requiring more human creativity to guide them.
Researchers have observed that AI tools *“eliminate repetitive tasks, allowing creators to focus on higher-value creative decisions.”* ([Generative AI in Creative Work: Shocking Study - Magai](https://magai.co/generative-ai-has-transformed-creative-work/?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=Generative%20AI%20in%20Creative%20Work%3A,value%20creative%20decisions)) This suggests human workers will move upstream in the value chain – spending more effort on idea generation, planning and overseeing AI-driven execution.
Moreover, entirely new planning-oriented roles are emerging (e.g. **AI strategists, prompt engineers, AI project managers** ([Ethics and security in AI: emerging job profiles for a sustainable future | PALTRON](https://www.paltron.com/insights-en/ethics-and-security-in-ai-emerging-job-profiles-for-a-sustainable-future?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=The%20growing%20demands%20for%20security,security%20and%20set%20ethical%20guidelines)) ([Ethics and security in AI: emerging job profiles for a sustainable future | PALTRON](https://www.paltron.com/insights-en/ethics-and-security-in-ai-emerging-job-profiles-for-a-sustainable-future?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=An%20AI%20strategist%20is%20responsible,and%20a%20strong%20business%20acumen))) that capitalize on AI capabilities to drive innovation strategy. The net result envisioned by 2035 is a workforce composition with **relatively fewer people “on the factory floor” or performing routine service tasks, and many more in roles that plan, direct, and dream up what those automated systems execute**. Economic forecasts generally agree that while automation will shrink some job categories, it will also *create* demand in others – notably in tech development, data analytics, creative industries, and business strategy. By 2035, the share of jobs devoted to higher-level planning and ideation is expected to expand markedly, potentially approaching **one-quarter to one-third of the workforce** (up from under one-fifth today), commensurate with AI’s acceleration of execution and an economy increasingly driven by continuous innovation ([Future of Workplaces With AI | A3Logics Blog](https://www.a3logics.com/blog/the-future-impact-of-ai-in-companies-and-workforces?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=According%20to%20research%2C%20there%20will,some%20of%20the%20strongest%20benefits)).
### March 14 - The #1 driver for turning uncertainty into opportunity
URL: https://www.s3t.org/march-14-2025/
Last updated: 2025-03-14T03:10:58.000Z
*How do we take the uncertainties we face and translate them into caring action for your family, your company, your customers and communities...that delivers success and thriving? The answer is closer than you might expect.*
---
S3T Podcast March 14
0:00
/1526.5436734693878
1×
🎧 Listen here, or [listen on Spotify](https://creators.spotify.com/pod/show/gets3t/episodes/March-14---Your-1-driver-for-turning-uncertainty-into-opportunity-e3055ai?ref=s3t.org)
###
In this Issue
- 💖 **Lead with love, not fear**—small, caring actions create big impact.
- 🧠 **Mindset matters**—fear leads to blame, love drives progress.
- 🚀 **Act, don’t wait**—opportunities come to those who adapt.
- 📉 **Economic shifts**—stagflation, debt, and market changes require smart choices.
- 🔄 **Drive change**—data modernization needs leadership and buy-in.
---
### \[perspective\]
## 🧭 Navigating Uncertainty - With Love
Right now, we are all navigating an era of **accelerating change**—from economic uncertainty and shifting job markets to rapid technological advancements. In times like these, it’s easy to feel overwhelmed or hesitant. But as individuals who deeply care—about our families, careers, customers, businesses, patients, and communities—**We have a choice to be driven by love or by fear**.
- Some of you are helping your newborns and small children take their first steps in life.
- Some of you are providing similar nurture for a young company that you are trying to build.
- Some of you are trying to upskill and empower a team
- Many of you have customers or patients you care deeply about.
- Or maybe groups or communities or ecosystems that you want to help.
How do we take the uncertainties we face and translate them into caring action for your family, your company, your customers and communities...and even for your own career and thriving?
The answer is closer than you might expect. Its wrapped up in this question:
### What’s driving you? And how do you find the *right* motivation?
Here's what we mean:
If we are motivated by fear or anger, we'll react to uncertainty in less helpful, less effective ways. Our behaviors will be driven by resentment and prone to overreaction. Which tends to make things worse. Fear and resentment will also often cause us to over estimate what is not in our control, while overlooking what actually *is* in our control, what things we can take action on. Instead of embracing responsibility and taking control of what we can, we instead lapse into a passive non-accountable mindset. Saying things to ourselves like, "Well those people are screwing everything up so I can't do anything because everything is so chaotic right now."
That's not the mindset you want to take.
Your biggest opportunities, your biggest wins often start under less than ideal conditions, where things might feel absolutely nuts. When it feels like the world has gone crazy, that's your chance to do good.
Don't think in terms of doing something big. Think small. The truly big and beneficial impacts come from a series of small actions.
And what is the driver for this? What would keep you going through that series of small actions long enough for the great results to come?
Love.
### This is where clarity starts.
If I look out at the headlines and the world and ask "how do I stop this madness?" my plans this week will likely devolve into doomscrolling and resentment. Driven by fear and anger.
If I look out at the world and say, "What are the best things I can do for the people, the family, the team, the customers I care about?" then I will be working from a *different* mindset. A mindset of Love, not fear or anger. And I'll notice opportunities and insights I would have otherwise missed.
The best way to protect those we care about is to process uncertainty with **insight and action**—understanding the key economic signals, making informed financial decisions, and adapting to the changes that impact our personal and professional lives.
- If you’re **investing**, staying disciplined with strategies like dollar-cost averaging can help navigate volatility.
- If you’re **managing a business**, focusing on financial resilience and customer needs is critical.
- If you’re **leading a team**, clarity and adaptability will define your success.
- If you’re **supporting a family**, smart financial planning and intentional career moves will provide stability.
🚨 **Beware of messages that suggest delay.** Sitting on the sidelines, waiting for uncertainty to pass, often leads to missed opportunities. The future belongs to those who prepare, pivot, and take wise action today.
Here’s the secret:
### **When you're driven by love, you don't have to predict the future, you don’t have to dread the future, because y*ou're the one building it*.**
And instead of passively worrying about the future, we take small steps every day to make it better. If we allow fear, resentment or anger to be the driver, we probably won’t take the right actions as consistently as we need to, to get good results. We’ll fall into a cycle of trying, getting frustrated, then abandoning our task for a while, and then coming back later to make another attempt - after time and opportunities have been lost.
But if we do what we do out of love - it puts us on a path of steady consistently taking the right actions and this makes all the difference over time.
So often here in the 21st century our lives require us to process uncertainty. But we have the opportunity to translate that uncertainty into action driven by love for all of the important people, teams and causes in our lives.
**What steps will you take now to ensure that your family, your business, and your community can thrive in this environment?**
*Reach out! I’d love to talk more and hear what you are focused on - you can dm me on LinkedIn.*
---
### **\[macro-economics\]**
Photo by [Hans-Jurgen Mager](https://unsplash.com/@hansjurgen007?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Trending: Stagflation, Correction, Recession
[Chart courtesy of Haver Analytics](https://www.haver.com/?ref=s3t.org)
The [GDP Consensus Forecast suggests we are in a "stagflation" period](https://www.haver.com/?ref=s3t.org) (high inflation, low growth), as the [S&P 500 entered "correction territory."](https://www.barrons.com/articles/s-p-500-correction-what-next-03225182?ref=s3t.org) A market is typically considered to be in correction when it is down 10% or more from most recent highs. A bear market is 20% or more. Goldman Sachs says there's [an increased chance of a recession](https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2025/03/08/are-we-suddenly-close-to-a-recession-heres-what-the-data-actually-shows/?ref=s3t.org) in the coming year.
The latest inflation numbers showed inflation at 2.8% - slightly lower than expected. While this is welcome news, it's important to remember that [this is an average that doesn't necessarily spell relief for household budgets](https://finance.yahoo.com/personal-finance/banking/article/6-eggs-and-other-inflation-pain-points-heres-where-prices-are-rising-181129344.html?ref=s3t.org):
- Eating out up 3.7% over one year ago.
- Prescriptions up 4.6%
- Nursing home care up 4.1%
- Health insurance up 3.9%
No surprise then that the [Consumer Confidence Index dropped sharply](https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence?ref=s3t.org) in February, with the Expectations Index portion of the measure dropping below the 80 point threshold that usually signals a recession. [Surging layoffs](https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2025/03/06/layoffs-surged-in-february-to-highest-level-since-2020-led-by-doge-firings/?ref=s3t.org) don't help.
[Courtesy of Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/personal-finance/banking/article/6-eggs-and-other-inflation-pain-points-heres-where-prices-are-rising-181129344.html?ref=s3t.org)
[US credit card delinquencies are at a 13 year high](https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/02/20/why-american-credit-card-delinquencies-have-suddenly-shot-up?ref=s3t.org) \- average rate on credit cards is now 21% - the highest in modern history. In 2021 it was less than 15%.
Related: See the Budget tool and tips at [Personal Finance: Steps to financial security](https://www.s3t.org/pf/).
### States fortunes increasingly tied to US Gov debt
State and local governments are now the [2nd largest holders of US treasuries](https://www.s3t.org/march-7-2025-ai-security/), far ahead of foreign governments. The complete implications of this are not yet clear, but this does make states and local governments increasingly dependent on federal economic policy.
### Even crypto has the blues...
While the unprecedented [White House Crypto Summit](https://www.reuters.com/technology/crypto-leaders-meet-trumps-summit-strategic-reserve-focus-2025-03-07/?ref=s3t.org) grabbed headlines this past week, the most significant regulatory change flew under the radar. In a pivotal shift, the CFTC issued new guidance giving banks greater freedom to innovate and offer new crypto products, without the previous "mandatory consultation" rule. This shift is likely to pave the way for greater crypto adoption and financial innovation in the banking space. In spite of this positive note, institutional investors [have moved more than $4B out of Crypto ETFs](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-10/crypto-slump-deepens-as-macro-headwinds-offset-trump-push?ref=s3t.org) in the last month, unnerved by the erratic policy impacts to markets.
### 📉 S3T Full Access Members: Check the [S3T Economic Dashboard](https://www.s3t.org/dashboard/) for the latest on the top 500+ US & International real-time economic indicators.
---
## **\[change leadership learning series\]**
### This week's lesson: [Gaining buy-in for data modernization](https://www.s3t.org/s3t-playbook-data-modernization/):
Some of the world's most transformative AI use cases are waiting for data that is currently locked up inside legacy platforms and policies.
But data modernizations are fraught with complexity, costs, and perhaps worst of all politics. In this change leadership learning segment you'll learn how to inspire and guide an organization to leave behind its status quo and embark on a data modernization journey. This is by no means easy and the key insights and skills. You will learn here will increase your chances for success.
*Congratulations to all of you who have been studying and applying each weekly segment in the Change Leadership Learning Series - since the first lesson in October 2024! this marks the final lesson in the series. Next week we will do a recap.*
Click here for an overview of the full [Change Leadership Learning Series](https://www.s3t.org/change-leadership-learning-series/).
---
###
**\[playbooks\]**
- [Spend Wisely in a Hype-Driven World](https://www.s3t.org/spendwisely/)
- [Gaining Buy-in for Data Modernization](https://www.s3t.org/s3t-playbook-data-modernization/)
- [Flipping the Script: Understanding and Changing Internal & Macro Narratives](https://www.s3t.org/changing-internal-and-macro-narratives/)
- [Shift to effective gatekeeping in the age of generative AI](https://www.s3t.org/genai-supervisory-workloads/)
- [How to Stop Zombie Projects from Sapping your Focus and Resources](https://www.s3t.org/stop-zombie-projects/)
- [Harmonize Different Kinds of Expertise to Achieve Success](https://www.s3t.org/harmonize-expertise/)
- [Addressing issues related to uneven accountability](https://www.s3t.org/disabling-accountability-shields/)
- [Validating AI use cases](https://www.s3t.org/validating-ai-use-cases/)
- [6 Proven Ways to Resolve Conflicts](https://www.s3t.org/6-ways-to-resolve-conflicts/)
See [Full List of S3T Playbooks](https://www.s3t.org/playbooks/)
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### 🛡️March 7 - Why AI Security is your next big thing
URL: https://www.s3t.org/march-7-2025-ai-security/
Last updated: 2025-03-07T03:43:04.000Z
*What you don't know can hurt you, or cause you to miss important opportunities. Which AI security skills will you focus on this year?*
S3T March 7 2025 - AI Security
0:00
/1526.5436734693878
1×
*🎧 Listen here, or* [*listen on Spotify*](https://creators.spotify.com/pod/show/gets3t/episodes/March-7---Why-AI-Security-is-your-next-big-thing-e2vqqm1?ref=s3t.org)
---
### In this Issue of S3T:
🔐 **AI Security is the Next Big Thing:** AI is transforming industries, but security risks are growing. AI Security Controls & Governance (AISC&G) is now a top priority for IT budgets, talent strategies, and compliance.
🚀 **5 Key Drivers of AI Security Focus:**
1. AI’s rapid adoption expands the attack surface.
2. AI-powered tools create new security blind spots.
3. Emerging AI-native tech stacks pose unquantified risks.
4. Critical shortage of AI security talent.
5. Global AI regulations are increasing compliance demands.
🎯 **Career Growth in AI Security**
AI security skills can future-proof your career, whether you're technical or not. Learn AI red teaming, secure AI pipelines, and data governance to stand out.
🧠 **Change Leadership: Rethinking Economic Models**
Challenge outdated financial assumptions that block innovation. Learn how to reframe resistance to change disguised as "financial necessity" and drive impactful transformation.
📚 **Exclusive S3T Playbooks & Resources**
Access expert insights on AI security, economic trends, and strategic decision-making—helping you navigate today’s fast-changing landscape with confidence.
---
### \[emerging tech\]
Photo by [fabio](https://unsplash.com/@fabioha?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
##
🛡️ Why AI Security is your next big thing
*What you don't know can hurt you, or cause you to miss important opportunities. Which AI security skills will you focus on this year?*
### 3 Things Job Seekers, CIOs & CISOs need to know:
- AI is rapidly transforming business operations, automating workflows, and enhancing decision-making.
- As AI's role expands, so do its security risks. AI Security Controls & Governance (AISC&G) **is now a top priority in IT budgets, talent strategies, and compliance frameworks.**
- AI Security is **a hot new career track with great opportunities for those who focus on developing a blend of security and AI skills.**
### 5 factors driving urgent focus on AI Security:
**1\. AI's Rapid Growth & Adoption:** AI is being embedded into nearly every industry, from finance to healthcare to retail, increasing the attack surface exponentially.
**2\. New Types of Interfaces:** AI-powered tools (e.g., Chatbots, AI-driven SaaS, Code Assistants, and Autonomous Agents) create new security blind spots that traditional security teams haven't accounted for.
**3\. Changing Tech Stacks:** Enterprises are shifting towards AI-native cloud solutions that integrate Databricks, Snowflake, AWS Bedrock, Azure OpenAI, Google Vertex AI, and others - all of which may have unique security risks that are not yet fully quantified. These new risks for the most part do not yet have standardized proven best practices and mitigation strategies. We literally are in a phase of testing and learning.
**4\. Lack of AI-Specific Security Talent:** Companies lack professionals trained in AI Red Teaming, Model Abuse Prevention, Secure AI Pipelines, and Data Governance. This talent gap is making AI Security one of the fastest-growing career opportunities in tech.
**5\. Regulatory & Compliance Challenges:** Governments worldwide are rushing to regulate AI security & ethics (EU AI Act, U.S. Executive Orders, China's AI Laws), meaning companies must now comply with new AI-specific security mandates.
### Career Learning Strategies in AI Security
AI Security is a high-value career skill that can help you stand out in the job market even if you're not in security or tech.
How to leverage AI Security knowledge to boost your career:
- **Demonstrate Awareness of Key AI Security Risk:** Show that you understand today's biggest AI security issues. See [Mindgard's resource library](https://mindgard.ai/learn/resources?ref=s3t.org).
- **Upskill with AI Security Certifications & Training:** Gain hands-on knowledge through relevant courses and certifications.
- **Apply AI Security to Your Industry:** Even if you are not in tech, integrating AI awareness into your skill set can make you a more competitive candidate.
### Top AI Security Topics to Learn
- Red Team Testing for AI: Simulating attacks on AI models to identify vulnerabilities before bad actors exploit them. Here is a [high level overview of AI Red-Teaming](https://www.dnv.com/article/ai-red-teaming-for-critical-infrastructure-industries/?ref=s3t.org) and how it applies to different industries. A more detailed playbook is available here.
- AI Guardrails: Implementing security policies that prevent AI models from making harmful or biased decisions.
- Prompt Injection Attacks: Manipulating AI prompts to make models output unintended or malicious responses.
- Data Oversharing Risks: Preventing AI from leaking sensitive company, customer, or proprietary data.
- Model Hallucinations & Deepfake Risks: Ensuring AI-generated outputs are accurate, verifiable, and not easily manipulated.
### Where to find opportunities
- **Entry-Level AI Security Opportunities for Interns & Graduates:** Consider your fit for roles such as AI Security Research Assistant or AI Solution Tester. Many cybersecurity firms, AI research labs (e.g., OpenAI, Anthropic, Microsoft, Google DeepMind) or larger organizations investing in AI may offer entry-level positions focused on AI Security & Red Teaming.
- **Security & compliance roles:** If you’re interested in cybersecurity, mastering AI Security makes you more employable and future-proof. Likewise AI security and controls is rapidly becoming a major focus area for audit & compliance teams.
- **Non-Technical Roles:** Even if you consider yourself a non-technical candidate/employee, applying AI knowledge to your industry can significantly **increase your value.** For example blending User Experience (UX) knowledge with AI security awareness can help you design generative AI agents that not only provide a great user experience but also do so securely, in a way that builds customer trust. In fact, going forward Customer Trust + AI Security will go hand in hand.
- **Leaders:** If you’re a business leader, understanding AI risks helps you make better investment & compliance decisions. **Key Resource:** [🌟S3T Playbook: Validating AI use cases](https://www.s3t.org/validating-ai-use-cases/) can help you and your team make better decisions about when and how to invest in AI, and when to pass.
- **Healthcare:** Cybersecurity and AI are becoming top priority investment areas for all aspects of the US healthcare industry [as highlighted by former U.S. National Security Administration Director General Paul M. Nakasone](https://www.healthcareitnews.com/news/former-us-cyber-commander-urges-healthcare-think-differently-about-ai?ref=s3t.org) at the 2025 HIMSS conference.
- **Don't count yourself out just because you are not in a big city or large metro area:** Rural Hospitals face major cybersecurity and AI challenges. To help, Microsoft launched the Rural Health AI Lab (RHAIL), to work with rural healthcare leaders designing generative AI solutions to address unique needs of rural hospitals. See [TSI Rural Hospital Cybersecurity Landscape Report 2025.pdf](https://cdn-dynmedia-1.microsoft.com/is/content/microsoftcorp/microsoft/msc/documents/presentations/CSR/TSI-Rural-Hospital-Cybersecurity-Landscape-Report-2025.pdf?ref=s3t.org) for more details.
### Takeaways
AI Security is no longer a niche topic—it’s now **a core priority** for IT leaders, security teams, and businesses **across every industry.**
In fact no matter what job you are interviewing for, consider asking: *What is your strategy for secure effective AI?*
By staying ahead of AI Security trends, you can **secure your career, protect your organization, and be part of the next wave of cybersecurity leadership.**
### 🧭 Keep learning with S3T Premium Content: [**AI Security Playbook: Step by Step Playbook for your first Red Teaming exercise.**](https://www.s3t.org/ai-security-playbook-red-teaming/)
---
###
## **\[change leadership learning series\]**
## This week's lesson: [Identifying economic mental models and their flaws](https://www.s3t.org/the-evolution-of-economics/)
If you have ever faced individuals or companies who were resisting beneficial ideas or necessary change under the guise of financial necessity, this is the learning path for you. This will give you answers for those scenarios where someone says "that would be great, but we have to be practical" or "we have a business to run".
This advanced learning segment gives change leaders context and insights to challenge the status quo economic thinking that often lurks behind resistance to beneficial change. You'll learn how to address cases where individuals or companies are resisting necessary change, or even opposing the stated mission of their own company under the guise of financial necessity.
Financial decisions are driven by assumptions (economic mental models) about what is possible or not possible. When we make financial decisions without critical examination of these assumptions and economic mental models we hold in our minds, we cause negative impacts to our customers and their communities, and force our companies to generate undesirable outcomes - all under the false notion that we simply had no choice. Learn how to help your leadership team rethink their economic mental models, and start seeing new paths for achieving your mission and goals.
Click here for an overview of the full [Change Leadership Learning Series](https://www.s3t.org/change-leadership-learning-series/).
Why [Change Leadership skills give you a unique edge](https://www.s3t.org/what-is-change-leadership/) in the 21st century job market.
---
###
### **\[panoramas\]**
- [Health](https://www.s3t.org/panorama-health/)
- [Macro](https://www.s3t.org/panorama-macro/)
- [Innovation](https://www.s3t.org/panorama-innovation/)
- [Habitat](https://www.s3t.org/panorama-habitat/)
- [Energy](https://www.s3t.org/panorama-energy/)
- [About S3T Panoramas](https://www.s3t.org/panoramas-about/)
### **\[macro-economics\]**
Full Access Members: See the [S3T Economic Dashboard](https://www.s3t.org/dashboard/) for the Top 500+ US & International real-time economic indicators.
---
###
**\[playbooks\]**
- [Spend Wisely in a Hype-Driven World](https://www.s3t.org/spendwisely/)
- [Gaining Buy-in for Data Modernization](https://www.s3t.org/s3t-playbook-data-modernization/)
- [Flipping the Script: Understanding and Changing Internal & Macro Narratives](https://www.s3t.org/changing-internal-and-macro-narratives/)
- [Shift to effective gatekeeping in the age of generative AI](https://www.s3t.org/genai-supervisory-workloads/)
- [How to Stop Zombie Projects from Sapping your Focus and Resources](https://www.s3t.org/stop-zombie-projects/)
- [Harmonize Different Kinds of Expertise to Achieve Success](https://www.s3t.org/harmonize-expertise/)
- [Addressing issues related to uneven accountability](https://www.s3t.org/disabling-accountability-shields/)
- [Validating AI use cases](https://www.s3t.org/validating-ai-use-cases/)
- [6 Proven Ways to Resolve Conflicts](https://www.s3t.org/6-ways-to-resolve-conflicts/)
See [Full List of S3T Playbooks](https://www.s3t.org/playbooks/)
---
##
Photo by [Hussain Niyaz](https://unsplash.com/@hussainniyaz?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### Feb 28: The future you, cross chain connectivity, model simplifications & AI side effects
URL: https://www.s3t.org/feb-28-2025/
Last updated: 2025-02-28T06:28:35.000Z
**When you think about the future version of you, are you factoring in how much you'll learn and grow?**
---
S3T Podcast Feb 28 2025
0:00
/1703.105306122449
1×
Click to listen, or [listen on Spotify](https://creators.spotify.com/pod/show/gets3t/episodes/Feb-28-The-future-you--cross-chain-connectivity--model-simplifications--AI-side-effects-e2vd0rl?ref=s3t.org)
### In this Issue
🧠 **Embracing a Growth Mindset for the Future**: Shift from "Can I?" to "How can I?" by seeing challenges as learning opportunities, focusing on skills over results, and embracing feedback as fuel for growth.
💰 **Caution in Financial Innovation**: Financial models are simplifications, not reality—mistaking them for truth leads to failure. Progress in financial modeling is temporary, requiring constant adaptation.
🔗 **Blockchain’s Evolution: From Silos to Interoperability:** The Wormhole + Securitize partnership connects previously isolated blockchains, reducing liquidity fragmentation and making digital assets more accessible for investors, developers, and users.
📢 **AI and Advertising: Unintended Consequences:** AI-driven assistants may unintentionally blur the line between helpfulness and product promotion, raising concerns about control, transparency, and ethical ad integration.
🔄 **Changing Narratives for Leadership Impact:** Internal and industry-wide narratives shape decisions—effective change leaders challenge outdated stories to unlock new opportunities and drive transformation.
---
### **\[perspective\]**
Photo by [Sushobhan Badhai](https://unsplash.com/@sushobhan?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## **🪴Growth Mindset: The way you think about your future shapes the way you create it.**
*If you think about your* future *with a *fixed mindset*, you might see your abilities, intelligence, and opportunities as predetermined—believing that you either "have what it takes" or you don’t.*
**When you think about the future version of you, are you factoring in how much you'll learn and grow?**
A **growth mindset** shifts the focus from **what you have now** to **what you can build over time**. It changes the question from *“Can I?”* to *“How can I?”*
### 👉 5 Ways to shift your thinking and apply a growth mindset to your future:
**1️⃣ See Challenges as a Pathway, Not a Roadblock**
Obstacles aren’t stop signs—they’re learning curves. The most successful people aren’t those who never fail, but those who keep learning and adapting until they succeed.
**2️⃣ Focus on Skills, Not Just Outcomes**
A growth mindset helps you shift from obsessing over results to focusing on **the process of getting better**. Instead of thinking, *“I need to reach this goal or I’ve failed,”* think, *“What skills do I need to develop to get there?”*
**3️⃣ Rewrite the Story You Tell Yourself**
Instead of saying *“I’m not good at this,”* try saying *“I haven’t mastered this yet.”* That one word—**yet**—can transform your self-perception from limitation to possibility.
**4️⃣ Seek Feedback as Fuel for Growth**
Many people avoid feedback because they fear criticism. But with a growth mindset, **feedback isn’t judgment—it’s insight.** The more you learn about how to improve, the faster you grow.
**5️⃣ Play the Long Game**
Short-term setbacks don’t define your long-term potential. Progress is rarely a straight line, and the most valuable growth often comes from **persisting through difficulties** rather than avoiding them.
### 🔮The future isn’t something that just happens to you—it’s something you create.
And the best way to shape it? **Commit to the mindset that you can learn, adapt, and grow your way into the person you want to become.**
If you’re feeling like the work you’ve poured your heart into is being undermined or that progress is slipping away, you’re not alone. In times like these, it’s easy to feel stuck or discouraged. But a **growth mindset** isn’t about blind optimism—it’s about resilience, adaptability, and impact in the face of challenges.
### **❓Common Questions about Growth Mindset**
**🔹 What if I’ve tried this before and still failed?**
Failure isn’t proof you can’t grow. It’s part of the process. Adjust and try again.
**🔹 What if I’m not naturally motivated?**
Motivation follows action. Start small, build momentum, and discipline will carry you.
No matter where you are, **you can start now.** Growth isn’t just about surviving change—it’s about shaping it. Keep going.
### *💬 What’s one area of your life where you’re ready to apply a growth mindset?* [*DM me on LinkedIn*](https://www.linkedin.com/in/ralphperrine/?ref=s3t.org) *— I’d love to hear from you!*
---
Photo by [Matt Ridley](https://unsplash.com/@mattwridley?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## ☣️ A Sensible Dose of Caution for Financial Innovation
[The Financial Modelers Manifesto](https://wilmott.com/financial-modelers-manifesto/?ref=s3t.org) by Paul Willmot offers a concise yet timely reminder to guard against overconfidence when applying theory to practice. Though focused on finance, it delivers **essential critical thinking that applies broadly to innovation.**
The manifesto includes a *Hippocratic Oath for financial modelers*, emphasizing the need for a careful approach to financial innovation. It encourages us to be mindful of what financial models and simulators can and cannot reveal, fostering awareness of our assumptions and their resilience under real-world conditions.
A few highlights that stood out to me:
- Financial models are not the same thing as the real world...they always offer **over simplified explanations** that will not hold true in certain conditions. This Willmot refers to as "*dirt swept under a rug*." All models sweep dirt under the rug. A good model makes the absence of the dirt visible."
- "*Statistics is shallow description, quite unlike the deeper cause and effect of physics, and can’t easily capture the complex dynamics....*"
- **Financial models have a fluctuating relationship with the real world**: "*there is no right model, because the world changes in response to the ones we use. Progress in financial modeling is fleeting and temporary. Markets change and newer models become necessary.*"
- "To confuse the model with the world is to embrace a future disaster" because human behavior does not follow, and cannot be explained by mathematical rules.
To avoid deluding ourselves about the true potential of any specific set of theoretical assumptions, the Manifesto recommends simple clear models with explicit assumptions about small numbers of variables.
---
Photo by [Laura Geror](https://unsplash.com/@laura%5Fgeror?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## **🕸️The Next Evolutionary Step in Blockchain Architecture: From Fragmented Chains to an Interoperable Financial Network**
BlackRock has partnered with [Wormhole](https://wormhole.com/?ref=s3t.org) and [Securitize](https://securitize.io/?ref=s3t.org) to expand its tokenized fund offerings across multiple existing Layer 2 networks, enhancing accessibility and liquidity for investors. See [PR Newswire](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/securitize-announces-the-live-deployment-of-wormhole-enabling-tokenized-funds-with-multiple-share-classes-302361553.html?ref=s3t.org) and [Wormhole.com](https://wormhole.com/docs/learn/fundamentals/architecture/?ref=s3t.org) for context.
The **Wormhole + Securitize** partnership is not just a technical upgrade—it signals a **shift in blockchain architecture and market dynamics** that could redefine how financial assets and decentralized networks operate. This shift follows **a familiar pattern in technological evolution**, where **interoperability and liquidity aggregation unlock massive new levels of participation, efficiency, and opportunity**.
### **The Old Model: Siloed Blockchains**
- Historically, blockchains operated **as separate ecosystems** (e.g., Ethereum, Solana, Cosmos, Avalanche).
- Assets, liquidity, and users were often **trapped within a single chain**, limiting growth and efficiency.
- Developers had to **choose one blockchain**, making applications less accessible across the ecosystem.
### **The New Model: Cross-Chain Liquidity as a Foundational Layer**
- **Wormhole provides universal liquidity movement**, allowing assets and users to operate **seamlessly across multiple blockchains**.
- Securitize enables **real-world asset (RWA) tokenization**, bringing **institutional-grade liquidity** into blockchain ecosystems.
- This is similar to how **global banking networks (SWIFT, FedWire, ACH) connected isolated financial institutions**, making **capital flow globally and reducing inefficiencies**.
🔹 **Pattern:** Just as cloud computing removed the need for companies to build their own data centers, cross-chain interoperability removes the need for blockchain ecosystems to develop in isolation.
### **Understanding Wormhole’s Cross-Chain Capabilities in Simple Terms**
Imagine you have different types of bank accounts—one at Chase, one at Wells Fargo, and another at Bank of America. Normally, moving money between these banks takes time and fees because they operate as separate systems. Now, imagine if there was a tool that let you instantly transfer money between these banks as if they were all part of the same network. That’s what **Wormhole** does for blockchains.
#### **What Does Wormhole Do?**
Wormhole allows different blockchains—like Ethereum, Solana, and Cosmos—to **talk to each other and share assets** in a way that wasn't possible before. These blockchains usually function like separate islands with their own rules, tokens, and apps. Wormhole builds **bridges** between them, so users and assets can move freely without being stuck in one ecosystem.
#### **What is Liquidity Fragmentation?**
Liquidity is just **how much money or assets are available in a market** at any given time. If there's plenty of liquidity, it's easy to buy, sell, or trade assets without prices jumping around too much.
However, in the crypto world, liquidity is often **scattered across many blockchains**. For example:
- You might have $1 million of a token available on Ethereum
- $500,000 of the same token stuck on Solana
- Another $750,000 on Cosmos
If these pools can’t interact with each other, traders and investors face **higher fees, slower transactions, and price inconsistencies across platforms**. This is called **liquidity fragmentation**—when money is trapped in different blockchains instead of flowing freely.
#### **How Does Wormhole Help?**
Wormhole **connects these isolated liquidity pools**, making it easier for people to move assets between blockchains. This creates a **bigger, unified market** rather than a bunch of small, disconnected ones. The benefits include:
1. **Lower Costs** – When liquidity is concentrated, transactions become cheaper.
2. **Faster Transactions** – No need to wait for slow bridges or complicated token swaps.
3. **Better Prices** – A unified pool of liquidity makes it easier to get fair prices when trading.
#### **How this helps different industry participants:**
- For **institutions** like BlackRock, which are exploring tokenized assets (e.g., real-world stocks and bonds represented on a blockchain), cross-chain liquidity **makes these digital assets more usable and accessible**. Investors won’t have to worry about being locked into one ecosystem—they can move their investments where they see the best opportunities.
- For **blockchain developers**, it means their apps can reach more users across different chains instead of being limited to just one platform.
- For **regular users**, it means fewer headaches when swapping between tokens and fewer fees when moving assets around.
### **The Big Picture**
Wormhole and its adoption represents a shift toward **making all blockchains work together like a single, connected financial system** rather than a bunch of isolated networks. This can help make crypto more user-friendly, scalable, and attractive to institutional investors.
---
## ‼️AI's Integration into Advertising brings unintended impacts
This week a popular GPT GenAI Agent tried to sell me a software product when I was brainstorming productivity approaches. From all appearances this was *not* the intention of the platform owners, nor is there any evidence of a product placement arrangement between the respective firms.
As GenAI agents replace ad-supported web search, the question arises: Is AI capable of enabling a safe advertising process that stays on task and within guardrails? Not likely, according to [this WIRED investigation into Google's ad ecosystem](https://www.wired.com/story/google-dv360-banned-audience-segments-national-security/?ref=s3t.org).
---
## **\[change leadership learning series\]**
Photo by [Pickled Stardust](https://unsplash.com/@pickledstardust?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## This week's lesson: [The power of narratives, and how to change them](https://www.s3t.org/changing-internal-and-macro-narratives/):
You and I have a set of internal narratives that guide our reactions and the way we quickly connect things, and make snap judgments. Over time these narratives can start to feel like the only reality that is possible. Your organization or industry likewise has conventional wisdom and status quo thinking that has formed over time.
Change Leaders can increase their impact by learning how to identify, challenge and change these narratives.
### [Click here for an overview of the full ](https://www.s3t.org/how-to-cultivate-an-owership-mindset-in-vendors-and-partners/)[Change Leadership Learning Series](https://www.s3t.org/change-leadership-learning-series/).
---
###
**\[playbooks\]**
- [Spend Wisely in a Hype-Driven World](https://www.s3t.org/spendwisely/)
- [Gaining Buy-in for Data Modernization](https://www.s3t.org/s3t-playbook-data-modernization/)
- [Flipping the Script: Understanding and Changing Internal & Macro Narratives](https://www.s3t.org/changing-internal-and-macro-narratives/)
- [Shift to effective gatekeeping in the age of generative AI](https://www.s3t.org/genai-supervisory-workloads/)
- [How to Stop Zombie Projects from Sapping your Focus and Resources](https://www.s3t.org/stop-zombie-projects/)
- [Harmonize Different Kinds of Expertise to Achieve Success](https://www.s3t.org/harmonize-expertise/)
- [Addressing issues related to uneven accountability](https://www.s3t.org/disabling-accountability-shields/)
- [Validating AI use cases](https://www.s3t.org/validating-ai-use-cases/)
- [6 Proven Ways to Resolve Conflicts](https://www.s3t.org/6-ways-to-resolve-conflicts/)
See [Full List of S3T Playbooks](https://www.s3t.org/playbooks/)
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### Feb 21 - Creating a Haven in a World of Chaos & Change
URL: https://www.s3t.org/feb-22-2025/
Last updated: 2025-02-21T06:55:54.000Z
*There is one thing you and I can learn to do in times like these - something that will ultimately do the most good for the most people. It is this: *We can take this opportunity to learn how to be a haven.**
S3T Podcast Feb 22
0:00
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Click player above to listen, or [listen on Spotify](https://creators.spotify.com/pod/show/gets3t/episodes/Feb-22---Creating-a-Haven-in-a-World-of-Chaos--Change-e2v5vqc?ref=s3t.org)
---
## In this Issue...
### 🌊 *Be the Calm, Create the Haven*
- **Anchor in What Matters** – Reconnect daily with faith, love, wisdom, or gratitude to stay grounded.
- **Cultivate Stillness** – Meditate, pray, journal, or take mindful walks to reset your inner peace.
- **Curate Your Environment** – Reduce noise, clutter, and negativity; create spaces that promote calm.
- **Be a Safe Harbor** – Offer non-judgmental listening and understanding before giving advice.
- **Let Go of Control** – Not every battle needs to be fought; focus on what truly matters.
---
### 🌍 *Geopolitical & Economic Shifts*
- **Rare Earth Geopolitics** – The U.S. & Russia vie for Ukraine’s mineral wealth as China seeks involvement.
- **Healthcare Economics** – Denying healthcare has societal costs; a better financial model is needed.
- **Investment Risks** – High valuations in AI & crypto sectors raise fears of market corrections.
- **U.S. Tariff Impacts** – Germany’s economic slowdown signals broader trade risks.
- **Defense Spending Surge** – European nations ramp up military budgets amid NATO uncertainties.
---
### 🤖 *Emerging Tech & Innovation*
- **Regulatory Clarity for Crypto** – The GENIUS Act aims to set stablecoin and digital asset regulations.
- **Crypto Investment Tools** – The COIN50 Index offers diversified exposure to top cryptocurrencies.
- **AI Cost Revolution** – Budget AI models like S1 challenge industry giants.
- **Free AI Research Tools** – Perplexity AI's "Deep Research" offers advanced capabilities at no cost.
- **EU’s AI Push** – €50B public & €150B private investment to compete in the AI race.
---
### 🏆 *Change Leadership Insights*
- **Multidisciplinary Collaboration** – Success requires experts from diverse fields working as a team.
- **Beyond Command & Control** – Traditional leadership structures no longer ensure enterprise success.
- **Leveraging Emerging Tech** – GenAI, Web3, and other tools drive better collaboration and outcomes.
- **Avoiding Catastrophic Loss** – A failure to adapt to new collaboration models risks organizational decline.
- **S3T Playbook Guidance** – This series teaches leaders how to harmonize expertise for impactful change.
---
### \[perspective\]
Photo by [Matt Hardy](https://unsplash.com/@matthardy?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## What Can Be Done?
In the midst of so much rapid change, relentless disruption, rising anxiety and what feels like sheer mayhem, it’s so easy to just feel overwhelmed and wonder: *What can I do?* With so much change and uncertainty, it’s understandable to feel exhausted and overwhelmed.
If you’re feeling that way, you’re not alone. Amid all this fast and accelerating pace of change, many people are wondering, what is the one thing that would be most important and most helpful?
There is one thing you and I can learn to do in times like these - something that will ultimately do the most good for the most people. It is this:
**We can take this opportunity to learn how to be a *haven*.**
Photo by [Chris Schog](https://unsplash.com/@cschog?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
Let your presence be a place of calm. Make your home a haven.
Let the places you work likewise be places of clarity and fruitful focus. In a world that feels increasingly chaotic, be the one who brings calm.
Rather than living and thinking in a reactionary way, we can live intentionally. Rather than being ruled by frustration, anger, or fear, we can actually choose to be led by love.
From love flows peace. From peace comes clarity. And with clarity, we can do the quiet, patient work that truly matters—nurturing others day by day, making good things happen, and moving forward with purpose.
Bring the calm. Be the haven. But how?
Photo by [Daniel Seßler](https://unsplash.com/@danielsessler?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### How to bring calm & create havens
It’s one thing to *want* to bring peace—it’s another to *become* a peaceful presence in a chaotic world. So how do you do it? How do you become the calm, the haven others need?
Here are some ways...and realize: You don’t have to do all of these at once. Even one small act of calm—one deep breath, one moment of stillness, one kind word—can shift the energy around you.
- **Anchor in What Matters** – Reconnect daily to what is *true* and *lasting*—faith, love, wisdom, or simple gratitude. Fear grows when we lose perspective, or when we lose our connection to these true and lasting things. Ground yourself before facing the world.
- **Cultivate a habit of stillness** – Meditate, pray, walk in nature, journal—find practices that reset your inner world so you can bring peace outwardly.
- **Curate Your Environment** – Your surroundings influence your inner state. Keep your home, workspace, and personal habits aligned with calm—less noise and clutter, more beauty, more light.
- **Be a Safe Harbor for Others** – People feel peace where they feel *safe*. Listen without judgment. Offer understanding before advice. Let your presence be a place where others can breathe.
- **Slow your reactions** – When faced with stress, pause. Take a breath. Give yourself space before responding. A non-reactive presence sets the tone for clarity and wisdom.
- **Choose your words with patience** – Speak in a way that de-escalates. Words can either fuel chaos or diffuse it. Let your words bring perspective, assurance, and steadiness. And remember, you don't have to explain everything or get all your points across right now. People change and learn *over time*.
- **Let Go of What You Can’t Control** – Not everything needs a response. Not every argument has to be won right now. Not everything is *yours* to carry. Focus your energy where it truly matters.
The world doesn’t need more people caught in the storm—it needs more who *steady the ship.* Amid all the change and chaos, one truth is clear: the work remains - the work of doing good, nurturing others and patiently bringing intentional beneficial change to this world.
Be the calm. Create the haven. Let peace begin with you.
Photo by [Kaupo Kalda](https://unsplash.com/@kaups?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
#CalmPresence #SteadyLeadership #BeTheHaven
---
### **\[macro-economics\]**
## **Geopolitical Shifts**
*Full Access Members: See the* [*S3T Economic Dashboard*](https://www.s3t.org/dashboard/) *for the Top 500+ US & International real-time economic indicators.*
The US & Russia appear to be plotting how to carve up access to Ukraine's rare earth mineral deposits, as [China looks for a way to get involved](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3299459/can-china-still-play-role-peacemaker-ukraine-after-us-russia-talks?ref=s3t.org). - As noted in previous editions of S3T, this is just a continuation of the shift from oil-based geopolitics to rare earth minerals-based geopolitics - a shift that will spotlight locations like Ukraine and Greenland. See this [collection of detailed maps showing Ukraine's mineral deposits](https://www.icog.es/TyT/index.php/2022/05/the-mineral-resources-of-ukraine/?ref=s3t.org).
For decades, global power politics were all about ensuring an uninterrupted flow of oil, from oil fields to gas stations. This was the primary organizing principle for alliances, conflicts, market movements. Today we still need oil (for now) but our phones, solar grids, bitcoin miners and AI data centers need rare earth minerals *more*. The kicker: Rare earth mineral deposits are not in the same locations as oil. This is going to drive a ragged set of conflicts - especially given the amoral approach being demonstrated.
### Societal Costs of the healthcare status quo
[United Shareholders are right](https://www.iccr.org/shareholders-call-on-united-healthcare-group-to-issue-a-report-on-the-public-health-costs-of-delayed-or-denied-access-to-treatment/?ref=s3t.org) \- there is a societal and economic cost to denying healthcare. When will we come up with a healthcare financial equation that reflects that reality? It probably needs to start with tax policy: our society has a direct dependence on healthy people to run our economy.
### Shifts in Investment Risk-Reward Dynamics:
[The prolonged bull market](https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/investors-spot-signs-of-market-froth-during-long-bull-market-f14f44c6?ref=s3t.org) has led investors to express concerns over potential market imbalances. Elevated valuations and increased speculative activities in sectors like AI and cryptocurrencies raise risk of correction.
### U.S. Tariff impacts: Germany as "canary in the coal mine?"
Recent U.S. tariffs have raised concerns about potential negative impacts on global trade. [Germany faces particular risks](https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/germany-particular-risk-us-tariffs-bundesbank-warns-2025-02-17/?ref=s3t.org), with projections suggesting stalled economic growth this year, potentially falling further over the next three years. **Also: European Defense Spending Surge**: [European defense stocks have spiked](https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/european-defence-stocks-surge-top-leaders-hold-summit-ukraine-2025-02-17/?ref=s3t.org) as governments face pressure to increase military spending. This trend is at least partly driven by fears that the US is abandoning NATO.
*These developments underscore the connections between tech innovation, political change, and economics. Leaders are advised to closely monitor these trends to inform strategic decision-making and maintain a competitive edge in their respective industries.*
---
### **\[emerging tech\]**
## As Crypto rises, AI may be hitting a consolidation point
*Recent developments in artificial intelligence (AI), cryptocurrency, and macroeconomic policies present critical insights for leaders navigating these dynamic sectors.*
### Regulatory Progress for Digital Assets
The White House, under AI and Crypto Czar David Sacks,[ has introduced initiatives focusing on stablecoin legislation and a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets](https://www.cov.com/en/news-and-insights/insights/2025/02/seven-things-to-know-about-the-federal-stablecoin-bill-the-genius-act?ref=s3t.org). The proposed GENIUS Act aims to establish clear guidelines for stablecoin issuers, indicating a significant step toward regulatory clarity in the crypto space.
### Crypto Index Fund: the COIN50
Coinbase, in partnership with Market Vector Indexes, [has introduced the COIN50 Index](https://www.coinbase.com/institutional/research-insights/research/market-intelligence/introducing-the-coin50-index?ref=s3t.org), providing investors with diversified exposure to the top 50 crypto assets. This development offers a streamlined approach for those seeking broad coverage of the digital asset market.
### Intensifying AI Competition
The AI landscape has been becoming more competitive with the emergence of cost-effective models. Notably, [Stanford University and the University of Washington developed the S1 model for under $50](https://gcmori.medium.com/stanford-uws-s1-model-a-high-performance-llm-for-under-50-a-game-changer-in-ai-2ecf293f82b4?ref=s3t.org), challenging established players and democratizing AI development.
Now [Perplexity AI has launched a **free** "Deep Research" tool](https://www.pcmag.com/news/perplexity-launches-a-free-deep-research-tool?ref=s3t.org), providing users with advanced research capabilities without the high costs associated with similar services.
**European AI Investment Initiatives**: The European Union has announced a [€50 billion investment to bolster its AI industry](https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/eus-ai-push-get-50-bln-euro-boost-eus-von-der-leyen-says-2025-02-11/?ref=s3t.org), complemented by a €150 billion private sector pledge. This initiative aims to enhance Europe's competitiveness in the global AI arena, though there are questions about how the EU will finance AI alongside its planned increases in military spend.
---
## **\[change leadership learning series\]**
Photo by [Kael Bloom](https://unsplash.com/@kaelbloom?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## This week's lesson: [](https://www.s3t.org/how-to-cultivate-an-owership-mindset-in-vendors-and-partners/)[Harmonize different kinds of expertise to achieve success.](https://www.s3t.org/harmonize-expertise/)
Today's change leadership opportunities require **multidisciplinary collaboration**: getting very smart people with divergent sets of expertise from different organizations to work together as one team toward a desired outcome.
*This is not easy, and* it's *different from the command and control delegation hierarchy of the 2oth century. *But it is the only way to avoid a brand and enterprise level catastrophic loss of control.* This S3T Playbook shows you how to harmonize different kinds of expertise to achieve a desired outcome using GenAI, Web3 and other emerging technologies.*
This is a continuation of the 301 level of the S3T [Change Leadership Learning Series](https://www.s3t.org/change-leadership-learning-series/).
---
###
**\[playbooks\]**
- [Spend Wisely in a Hype-Driven World](https://www.s3t.org/spendwisely/)
- [Gaining Buy-in for Data Modernization](https://www.s3t.org/s3t-playbook-data-modernization/)
- [Flipping the Script: Understanding and Changing Internal & Macro Narratives](https://www.s3t.org/changing-internal-and-macro-narratives/)
- [Shift to effective gatekeeping in the age of generative AI](https://www.s3t.org/genai-supervisory-workloads/)
- [How to Stop Zombie Projects from Sapping your Focus and Resources](https://www.s3t.org/stop-zombie-projects/)
- [Harmonize Different Kinds of Expertise to Achieve Success](https://www.s3t.org/harmonize-expertise/)
- [Addressing issues related to uneven accountability](https://www.s3t.org/disabling-accountability-shields/)
- [Validating AI use cases](https://www.s3t.org/validating-ai-use-cases/)
- [6 Proven Ways to Resolve Conflicts](https://www.s3t.org/6-ways-to-resolve-conflicts/)
See [Full List of S3T Playbooks](https://www.s3t.org/playbooks/)
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
Photo by [Aaron Burden](https://unsplash.com/@aaronburden?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### 💘Feb 14 - Why love & investing always go together
URL: https://www.s3t.org/feb-14-2025/
Last updated: 2025-02-14T12:30:33.000Z
*What's the safest investment in an inflation wracked economy and AI crazed market? You! Invest in yourself—you're more inflation-proof and more bubble-pop-proof than the Magnificent 7.*
---
S3T Podcast - Valentines: Love & Investing
0:00
/2107.324081632653
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*You can also* [*listen on Spotify*](https://creators.spotify.com/pod/show/gets3t/episodes/Feb-14---Why-love--investing-always-go-together-e2ursaq?ref=s3t.org)
### 📌 In this Issue
1️⃣ **💘 Love & Investing Go Hand in Hand**
- Love naturally involves investment—whether in relationships, kids, customers, or startups.
- Investing in ourselves is just as important but often overlooked due to self-doubt and hesitation.
2️⃣ **🚀 Overcoming the Fear of Self-Investment**
- We hesitate due to questions like “Am I ready?” or “Is this just an indulgence?”
- Shifting focus to *empowering* questions (e.g., “How will this investment expand my opportunities?”) helps break the cycle.
3️⃣ **⏳ The Best Time to Invest in Yourself is Now**
- Delaying self-investment means delaying growth.
- Rule of thumb: Start as early as possible. If you haven't started, now is better than later.
4️⃣ **📉 The Flawed Economic Measures Behind Affordability Issues**
- Official U.S. unemployment figures understate the real situation (23.7% *functionally* unemployed).
- Inflation is severely underestimated—true cost of living rises faster than reported CPI numbers.
5️⃣ **🤖 AI Hype vs. Reality in Business**
- 75% of executives say AI delivers minimal value.
- Many CIOs are hesitant to experiment with GenAI due to reliability concerns.
- There’s massive investment in AI, but actual business impact remains limited.
---
### **\[perspective\]**
Photo by [Nick Fewings](https://unsplash.com/@jannerboy62?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## 💘Love and investing always go together
*The perfect topic for Valentines week and beyond*
If you love someone, you invest in your relationship with them. If you love your kids, you invest in their education, well-being and future success. If we love our customers, we will invest diligently in creating better products and services for them. If we love the mission of a startup, we invest in bringing it to fruition.
Over and over, we see the connection: **love and investing go hand in hand**...If you love - well - anything, you invest your time, attention, energy and resources in it.
On Valentine’s Day, we celebrate love. What if we also learned to love investing in *ourselves*?
### Many people find it hard to think clearly about investing in *themselves*
We're quick to invest in other people or companies. But when it comes to investing in ourselves, clarity fades.
Our minds start spinning with questions:
- *Am I really ready? Is now the right time?*
- *What if I don’t follow through? Will I just be wasting money?*
- *Is this just an indulgence? How do I know the difference?*
- *Do I even deserve this? Shouldn’t I prove myself first?*
We hesitate, we overthink, we second-guess—why is investing in ourselves so hard?
Let’s unpack that.
### The risk of waiting vs starting
When we think about investing in ourselves, our minds often get stuck on the *wrong* questions—the ones rooted in doubt and hesitation. These thoughts create a cycle of indecision, making self-investment feel like a risky bet instead of a necessary step. The net result is investment in ourselves gets pushed further out into the future.
*How do we break out of this cycle and start investing in ourselves?* Here are 4 recognitions that will help:
1. **Recognize what's at the root of your hesitation to invest in yourself:** Investments are forms of sacrifice. I sacrifice something now, in order to gain a bigger return later. Sometimes when the investment - the sacrificing - is aimed at ourselves, we get tripped up. Should I be sacrificing (spending money, time, energy) on myself? The answer is Yes, you should. It will bring dividends not only to you and your future, but to many others - more than you will ever know.
2. **Recognize what you are building upon:** Others have sacrificed for you and invested in you - your parents, teachers, relatives, friends, co-workers, etc. By choosing to invest in yourself you are building on, and extending the value of their investment.
3. **Recognize the big pattern that you are part of:** Life is a collection of opportunities to love and to invest. If we all are continuously investing in ourselves and investing in each other, this takes us toward a pretty healthy wealthy world. If we don't love and invest, we go the opposite direction. If you choose not to invest in yourself, you’re also limiting your ability to invest in others. Over time, without renewal and growth, your capacity to give will diminish. Prioritizing your own development isn’t selfish—it’s what allows you to continue making a meaningful impact on those around you.
4. **Recognize what questions really matter:** Instead of focusing on fear based questions and dilemmas, shift your focus to *empowering* questions: *“What kind of future am I building for myself?”* *“How will this investment expand my opportunities?”* *“What skills and insights will help me create the life I want?”* *“What’s the cost of staying where I am?”*
When we recognize these points, it helps us move out of hesitation to a mindset of "Ok how and when can I get started?"
### **When is the right time to start investing in yourself?**
💡 *Answer: It’s not about feeling “ready”—it’s about starting anyway.*
The 2 rules of thumb about investing:
1. Start as early as possible.
2. If you haven't started already, right now is better than any future time.
These 2 rules both hold true for investing in yourself.
Your learning and growth aren’t luxuries; they’re necessities. The returns you’ll see from building knowledge, skills, and confidence will *far* exceed the cost of the investment.
### Let’s commit: invest in ourselves
The truth is, growth isn’t something you wait to feel *ready* for—it’s something you *step into*. Investing in yourself isn’t about proving your worth first; it’s about recognizing that your growth *is* the proof. And remembering: my growth enables more benefits for me yes but also for others.
When you choose to invest in yourself with clarity and confidence, you stop second-guessing and start building a future where you don’t just adapt to change—you *lead* it.
***💬 Want to continue the conversation?*** [***DM me on LinkedIn!***](https://www.linkedin.com/in/ralphperrine/?ref=s3t.org)
---
### **\[macro-economics\]**
Photo by [Karan Mandre](https://unsplash.com/@karngraphy?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## **More details on the flawed economic measures driving America's affordability crisis**
*Full Access Members: See the* [*S3T Economic Dashboard*](https://www.s3t.org/dashboard/) *for the Top 500+ US & International real-time economic indicators.*
This week's economic data indicated [inflation is rising](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jasonschenker/2025/02/12/hot-inflation-in-january-2025-reduces-odds-of-fed-interest-rate-cuts/?ref=s3t.org), with the Fed's preferred inflation measure back in 3% territory again. (As noted frequently in S3T this preferred measure is not accurate.)
More data emerged this week detailing the inaccuracy of current US economic measures. In "[*Voters Were Right About the Economy. The Data Was Wrong*](https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/02/11/democrats-tricked-strong-economy-00203464?ref=s3t.org)" Eugene Ludwig explains some of the problems with the way the Federal Government tracks the economy.
For example, if unemployment is 4.2%, we likely assume "4.2% are having a hard time right now, and the rest are doing fine." But did you know that federal measures count *homeless people doing occasional work* as "employed"??? If you factored in occasional homeless workers, plus workers who can only find part time work, and workers who make a poverty wage, the unemployment rate would be 23.7%.
> "nearly one of every four workers is *functionally* unemployed in America today" -[*Eugene Ludwig*](https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/02/11/democrats-tricked-strong-economy-00203464?ref=s3t.org)
While unemployment metrics include *everyone* even occasional homeless workers, the median wage statistic - ironically - takes the *opposite* approach: counting *only full time workers.* This causes median wage to be overstated by 16%.
So, 23% unemployment and overstated wages. It gets worse.
The Consumer Price Index (tracks prices of 80,000 consumer products) likewise has uncorrected flaws that generate **very misleading figures about inflation**.
Let's break it down:
If every American bought every one of the 80K products every month, then the current CPI measurement would be a decent gauge of inflation. But not every American buys every product at the same interval. As a result, **CPI is NOT a reliable indicator of the financial experience of American individuals and families.**
- Lower income individuals buy fewer products overall, and tend to buy products that are more exposed to inflationary pressures.
- In addition, products themselves are purchased in different intervals and make up different percentages of a household budget: The price of TVs has dropped sharply over the past decade. But that doesn't offset the fact that the price of healthcare has risen sharply – and that we buy a TV once every 2 years or so, but must pay for healthcare every month.
> "In 2023 alone, the CPI indicated that inflation had driven prices up by 4.1 percent. But the true cost of living, as measured by our research, rose more than *twice* as much — a full 9.4 percent." -[*Eugene Ludwig*](https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/02/11/democrats-tricked-strong-economy-00203464?ref=s3t.org)
This has been a common theme in the S3T newsletter and learning platform. Here are a few explainers:
- [Understanding the Challenges to Affordability: Headline Inflation vs. Perennial Inflation](https://www.s3t.org/headline-vs-perennial-inflation/)
- [Flawed inflation tracking and how to correct it](https://www.s3t.org/inflation-tracking/)
- Background: [🔭 S3T Perspectives on 2020's Inflation](https://www.s3t.org/inflation-perspectives/)
[Understanding the Challenges to Affordability: Headline Inflation vs. Perennial InflationS3T PERSPECTIVE Affordability and financial equality often take center stage in corporate mission and vision statements, promising a brighter future for customers and society. Yet, for these aspirations to become more than just words, leaders must possess a deep understanding of how inflation and affordability truly operate—and how theirS3TRalph Perrine](https://www.s3t.org/headline-vs-perennial-inflation/)
### Where to start
There is a lot of activity right now focused on government efficiency, and one hopes it somehow all sorts out for the benefit of individuals and families (personally, plagued with doubts).
If the purpose of government is to secure a positive citizen experience in a nation, it would make sense to start by focusing on the economic experience of citizens - by fixing our economic measures so they do a better job of telling us what that citizen experience is actually like. From there we could make adjustments to government programs and a variety of other factors - tax policy for one - and gradually engineer a better experience for Americans.
---
Photo by [Rock'n Roll Monkey](https://unsplash.com/@rocknrollmonkey?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### **\[emerging tech\]**
## 75% of Execs say AI delivers minimal value
Amid reliability concerns, only [61% of CIOs at WSJ Summit are willing to experiment w GenAI, 21% say they are doing nothing with it](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/ai-agents-are-everywhere-and-nowhere/ar-AA1yTkVd?ref=s3t.org).
This [Slashdot thread](https://slashdot.org/story/25/02/12/1626227/tech-leaders-hold-back-on-ai-agents-despite-vendor-push-survey-shows??ref=s3t.org) shares word-on-the-street concerns. One excerpt:
"*Three-quarters of the polled executives said AI currently delivers minimal value for their investments.*" - [Slashdot](https://slashdot.org/story/25/02/12/1626227/tech-leaders-hold-back-on-ai-agents-despite-vendor-push-survey-shows??ref=s3t.org)
This has been a continuation of a less reported on theme from 2024: massive hype and investment on the AI supply chain side, but limited value stories on the delivery side. The CBInsights chart (my cartoon bubbles added) gives a flavor of the situation - the largest and most well capitalized portion of the market - engorged with trillions of investment dollars, is trying to sell something to the much smaller players (here focused on tech sector only, but this dynamic seems to apply across the board).
Also notable: Impact of Tariffs - [The Trade War in 9 Charts](https://www.cfr.org/article/what-trumps-trade-war-would-mean-nine-charts?ref=s3t.org)
---
## **\[change leadership learning series\]**
Photo by [Diego Jimenez](https://unsplash.com/@diegojimenez?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
*If you've been following along and learning each week, congratulations! You are now starting the *Change Leadership 301 Level* which focuses on Special Challenges that arise in the course of leading change.*
### This week's lesson: [How to overcome the bias toward short-term thinking and inspire effective *forward*\-thinking](https://www.s3t.org/forwardthinking/)
So many influences and day to day urgencies push us toward short-term thinking at the expense of our future effectiveness and impact. So how can leaders cultivate a culture that acknowledges the importance of the future and helps employees at all levels realize their responsibility to actively engage in shaping it?
In this segment you will learn how to address the 3 most costly misperceptions about future planning and leverage **8 powerful habits for creating a proactive culture in your organization.**
Click here for an overview of the full [Change Leadership Learning Series](https://www.s3t.org/change-leadership-learning-series/).
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### ⚠️ Feb 7 - Unloved problems & high stakes decisions & shifts
URL: https://www.s3t.org/feb-7-2025/
Last updated: 2025-02-07T04:54:32.000Z
*One of the great unloved problems in healthcare is how to identify and enable innovations that actually drive costs down instead of up.*
PodCast Starter 2725 1101 PM
0:00
/2107.324081632653
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[Listen on Spotify](https://creators.spotify.com/pod/show/gets3t/episodes/Feb-7---Unloved-problems--high-stakes-decisions-e2uhmfa?ref=s3t.org)
---
### In this Issue
🔹 **Apply a Growth Mindset to Difficult Decisions** – Making tough choices with confidence, following through, and adapting ensures better outcomes, turning uncertainty into opportunity.
📈 **A Sea Change Coming to Public Markets** – Tokenizing private capital could open up high-return investments to more people, challenging traditional stock markets and investment barriers.
🏥 **Shifting Trends in Healthcare** – Private equity is moving from “wait and see” to aggressive growth, but rising costs and flawed financial models demand innovation that truly drives affordability.
🪙 **Ethereum vs. Solana & the Future of Crypto** – Solana’s institutional traction could challenge Ethereum’s dominance, signaling shifts in blockchain adoption and investment strategies.
🐙 **Tackling Wicked Problems with Change Leadership** – Navigating complex, systemic challenges requires strategic thinking, adaptive solutions, and leadership that embraces uncertainty.
🙏 Thank you for reading and sharing S3T!
---
## **\[perspective\]**
Photo by [Javier Allegue Barros](https://unsplash.com/@soymeraki?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## How to apply a growth mindset to the process of making difficult decisions
Like so many right now, you may be facing a difficult decision. For many, this decision relates to whether to stay in their current job, or go look for another. Whether to retire early or not. Or maybe whether or not to continue a business venture. Some of you may have already just made a very difficult decision and now you're worried about what comes next.
So this is a great time to talk about how to apply an *Active* Growth Mindset in Difficult Decisions. We emphasize the word active because decision making is not just a mental thing, it's a set of activities.
Difficult decisions often come with:
⚡ **Incomplete information** – We don’t have all the data or insight we’d like.
⚡ **Time constraints** – There’s not enough time to fully analyze every trade-off.
⚡ **Uncertainty** – There are unknowns we *can’t* predict, and even if we could, odds are just odds—not guarantees.
⚡ **Personal Dilemmas -** something about the decision make us feel a fear of loss: that we might lose credibility, or lose our financial security, or lose connections that matter to us.
Faced with the challenges of difficult decisions, it’s easy to spiral into *decision paralysis* or feelings of hopelessness:
💭 *No matter what I choose, it will turn out to be the wrong decision.*
💭 *I’ll regret this either way.*
But what if we shift our approach? What if we apply a *growth mindset* to the *entire* decision-making process?
### Every decision has a 3 part timeline:
1️⃣ **The time leading up to the decision** – Gathering insights, assessing options, and preparing.
2️⃣ **The decision itself** – Choosing with confidence, knowing we’ve done our best with the information available.
3️⃣ **The time after the decision** – Following through, adapting, and making sure the choice *works out well.*
When we apply a *growth mindset* across this full timeline, we don’t just make better decisions—we create *better outcomes.*
### What are you telling yourself about your decision?
When we make tough decisions it’s essential to *intentionally create your own narrative* around those choices. This means framing your decisions with clarity:
- Here’s what I’m going to do. *"I've decided to \_\_\_\_ "*
- Here’s why I’m doing it. *"I'm doing this because \_\_\_\_"*
- Here's how I've prepared, or am preparing. *"To improve the odds of good outcomes I'm preparing/doing \_\_\_\_ "*
- Here's what I believe about myself. *"Even if the worst happens, I know I am adaptable, intelligent, able to learn and grow. I have proven that I can navigate new chapters, overcome setbacks, and find ways to thrive."*
👉 Your mindset determines how you move forward. Instead of thinking, *This is all happening to me,* shift to *This is happening for me.* Instead of expecting the worst and just hoping for the best, *actively prepare for challenges while intentionally working toward the best possible outcome.*
### *Prepare for the worst but expect - and work toward - the best*
A *growth mindset in action* means:
✅ Making decisions confidently—even when the information is incomplete.
✅ Owning the risks, consequences, and even regrets if they come.
✅ Accepting that challenges are part of the process, not signs of failure.
✅ Preparing for setbacks but *actively building toward success.*
If you feel stuck in fear or self-doubt, remember:
*Your ability to adapt and grow is greater than any single event or situation.*
Keep moving forward with an active growth mindset—*decisive, prepared, and focused on your best path ahead.*
### **Follow-Through: Turning Decisions into Success**
An Active Growth Mindset doesn’t stop after the decision is made - It follows through with continued action that helps bring good outcomes.
Making a tough decision is just *the beginning.* What comes next—your *follow-through*—is what truly determines how things play out. A strong decision-making mindset doesn’t just say: *I made my choice.* It also asks: *What am I going to do now to make sure this decision leads to the* best *outcome possible?*
Every decision is like planting a seed.
Think about a time when you decided to plant a tree or a rosebush. Maybe it was tough deciding where to put it. But once you make a decision and planted it in the ground, that wasn't the end of it, right? You came back and tended it every day, to make sure it was growing and leading to the outcome you wanted. Decisions are like that. They're not one time events. They're investments.
Once you’ve made a decision, you can take *proactive* steps to follow through - like these:
✅ **Understand the situation more fully** – Keep learning about your choice and the environment around it. What can you do to ensure it works out the way you're hoping?
✅ **Build new skills** – Strengthen yourself to handle challenges that come with your decision. What can you learn that will help you create the best possible outcome?
✅ **Stay alert to feedback** – Pay attention to signals from your environment and *recalibrate* when needed. What can you adjust that will lead to better results?
### **Example: Choosing to Stay at Your Job Instead of Leaving It**
Let's imagine that you faced a situation where you needed to decide whether to stay in your current role, or move on to another role. And it was a very difficult decision for you. But finally you made the decision. You decided to stay in your current role. What action do you take after that decision? What's the follow through?
Your follow-through could include:
➡ *Building better relationships* with colleagues and deepening your network.
➡ *Asking your manager* what skills you should focus on for growth.
➡ *Proactively preparing* for changes in your workplace so you can thrive in new challenges.
Just like a retirement account, you don’t *just* make the initial decision to invest—you keep adding to it over time to *increase its value.* Every decision works the same way.
### To Recap: *Active* Growth Mindset
When we take an active growth mindset in the difficult decisions we make, it will make a difference in the way we approach the entire decision timeline:
- preparing to make the decision,
- making the decision and then
- following thru after the decision is made to drive the best outcome
So whatever choice you’re facing, don’t just stop at the decision. *Own it. Build on it. Make it work for you.* Hope this is helpful to you, and please feel free to share it with someone who may need an encouraging word.
---
## **\[macro-economics\]**
Photo by [César Couto](https://unsplash.com/@xcrap?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
*Full Access Members: See the* [*S3T Economic Dashboard*](https://www.s3t.org/dashboard/) *for the Top 500+ US & International real-time economic indicators.*
## Sea change coming to public markets?
As [NLW explains in this Breakdown episode](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-american-argument-for-tokenizing-everything/id1438693620?i=1000688200451&ref=s3t.org), there is a gathering momentum toward the idea of **giving retail investors more open access to the *private* capital investment opportunities.** These opportunities have traditionally been reserved for "qualified investors" - that is, only individuals with incomes > $200K and savings of $1M+ ([this is 2% - 9% of Americans](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/guess-percent-people-1-million-205921388.html?ref=s3t.org)) have been allowed to participate.
[The American Argument for Tokenizing EverythingPodcast Episode · The Breakdown · 02/02/2025 · 18mApple Podcasts](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-breakdown/id1438693620?i=1000688200451&ref=s3t.org)
**While private capital investments can be riskier, they also have far better returns, and are more diversified.** Public stocks by contrast are over-concentrated in just a handful of tech companies: the stock market [would have been flat the past 2 years without the "Magnificent 7"](https://www.inc.com/phil-rosen/stock-market-outlook-sp500-investors-economic-fed-rate-cut-magnificent-seven/91103119?ref=s3t.org)
### Why would we keep average middle class investors out of the best performing investments, and relegate them to the stock market?
Well, the logic was that "unqualified investors" didn't have enough money, couldn't afford to lock it up in an investment fund for 5-10 years, and might not understand the risks, might not be able to afford the risk of losing all their capital.
But the other side of the matter: "qualified investors" have enjoyed access to much higher returns than the rest, meaning 90% of investors are denied access to some of the best returns.
Tokenizing private capital - that is breaking a large investment into smaller chunks - smaller increments that retail investors can afford - could be a good way to allow greater participation in private equity while reducing the risk that an investor will incur a loss that they cannot afford.
### If Private capital becomes tokenized, what will this do to the "public capital"...ie the stock market?
If demand shifts to newly available private equity tokens (or let's imagine ETFs that give exposure to the same), then we could see a possible negative impact to the public stock market as investors move to private capital options.
Many will also point out that in addition to tokenizing private capital, the public IPO process needs to be overhauled and simplified. It has become complex and expensive to the point that only the most well connected, well capitalized firms can afford it. Private capital tokenization might help force a long overdue streamlining of the IPO process.
If private capital tokenization takes hold before the IPO process is updated, the stock market would likely experience bearish or volatile seasons. This would a possible concern for those who have the majority of their retirement savings tied up in stocks (always talk to your advisor about what is best for your situation).
### So is this a good thing or not?
Net net I think the advent of tokenized private capital is a good thing and here's why: *It can help more people learn how to own and manage capital, and more diverse capital.*
As Piketty illustrates in his book [Capital in the 21st Century](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital%5Fin%5Fthe%5FTwenty-First%5FCentury?ref=s3t.org), wages tend to lag capital growth: People who depend on wages alone will not be as financially secure as people who depend on wages + capital. SO, if we want to help drive more widespread prosperity, one of the most important things we can do is to **help people learn how to gain and manage capital.**
There could be a large scale societal benefit if we offer everyone equal opportunity - with appropriate guardrails - to participate in the kinds of upside that private capital participants have enjoyed for decades.
**Capitalism works best when everyone participates.**
---
Photo by [Jachan DeVol](https://unsplash.com/@jachan%5Fdevol?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## 📈What's coming for healthcare
As [Roel van den Akker notes](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/health-industries-u-s-outlook-for-2025-and-beyond/id1530076304?i=1000682907515&ref=s3t.org), the PE space may be entering a new phase where rampant uncertainties (inflation, interest rates, election etc) have subsided and things feel more predictable...at least to PE groups. Players are shifting from a "wait and see" mode to a go- for-growth mode. This could have an outsized impact on healthcare.
Drivers:
- The new administration is pro-business & anti-regulation
- Inflation (headline inflation) is giving the market numbers that it likes (even though it's still driving negative impacts for the majority of individuals & families).
- And in the healthcare space, a number of lucrative treatments are headed for "[patent cliffs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patent%5Fcliff?ref=s3t.org)" when patent protections or [new drug exclusivity provisions](https://www.fda.gov/drugs/development-approval-process-drugs/frequently-asked-questions-patents-and-exclusivity?ref=s3t.org) expire. This will again push companies to hunt for new partnerships and ways to grow their revenues.
### What to watch for in 2025:
- Rising numbers of deals as companies focus on growth and divest business units that aren't crucial to their growth strategy.
- Frankenstein products and platforms kludged together by M&A activity without proper technical due diligence (been on the clean up crew for a few of these).
- **Innovations that push healthcare costs up:** new drugs, devices and treatment paths that promise great things but aren't well matched to actual problems to solve and/or force insurers, medical providers and patients to basically fund unfinished product development or unrealistic ROI expectations.
This is unfortunately the *opposite of what healthcare actually needs right now.*
Budgets are at a breaking point, as healthcare costs continue to rise. The last thing we need are drivers that will push the costs up even more.
**One of the great unloved problems in healthcare is how to identify and enable innovations that actually drive costs *down instead of up*,** and/or fundamentally bend the financial model toward affordability. It CAN be done, but it requires that we break out of the mindset of simply looking for new drugs and devices that drive profits. Instead let's focus on how we could re-think the economic model - especially *how we manage risk*. And this does not mean single payer system either. A single payer system will still face the same no-win battles if we don't rethink the way we manage risk in healthcare.
For a starting point, consider the difference between a stream that nourishes a valley, vs a landfill full of sponges. Both hold water, but they have very different impacts. Our healthcare system is like a landfill full of sponges that soak up taxpayer and patient dollars in millions of different ways. We want it to be more like a stream that allows for health and thriving. Shifting from landfill to mountain stream will require some serious financial engineering, and a deep commitment to change.
For further reading on this pathway of innovation for healthcare, check out the [Learning Path for Healthcare Change Leaders](https://www.s3t.org/learning-path-for-healthcare-leaders/).
---
### Quick Note: Ethereum vs Solana
Fidelity's[ latest crypto research note](https://www.fidelitydigitalassets.com/research-and-insights/coin-report-ethereum-eth?ccsource=em%5FPromo%5F1119565%5F14%5F0%5F22171%5F201&ref=s3t.org) sounds a lot more tentative about Ethereum's future than their [2023 Ethereum Investment Thesis](https://www.fidelitydigitalassets.com/research-and-insights/ethereum-investment-thesis?ref=s3t.org). In addition, Market Vector warned that Solana with its growing institutional appeal and trad-fi partnerships [could catch up to Ethereum in 2025](https://www.marketvector.com/insights/mvis-onehundred/ethereum-vs-solana?ref=s3t.org).
---
### From the headlines: DOGE & Treasury concerns
This week we saw widespread reports about the DOGE [getting access to Treasury payments systems](https://www.paymentsdive.com/news/treasury-department-bureau-payments-system-senator-wyden-musk-meddling/739434/?ref=s3t.org). A few notes on this:
- There is a legitimate concern about how people's personal financial and identification data are being handled. Transparency about what is happening, why, and how, and what safeguards are in place will not only calm nerves but also set a good precedent.
- Audits, tests, software updates, security tests and patches etc are done on systems like these, and authorized individuals are allowed access to perform these actions on a need to know basis. Documenting the process for *how individuals are authorized and given access, and how and when their access is terminated, is standard best practice.* Likewise keeping records of who accessed what data and when is required under SOC2 and similar audit frameworks. When systems are audited, auditors will ask for these records in order to have evidence that the privacy of these systems was not breached. If such evidence is not available, or is suspect, that organization will fail its audit.
Aside from these concerns there also may be future implications for traditional financial institutions and frameworks - **will we see a crypto payments system put in place?** It could be more efficient. But there would need to be careful thought applied to privacy protections.
---
## **\[change leadership learning series\]**
Bat Kraken
### This week's lesson: [The upside of wicked problems](https://www.s3t.org/the-upside-of-wicked-problems/)
The 21st century and 2025 specifically has an epidemic of "wicked problems." What are wicked problems? How are they different from typical problems? What kinds of problem-solving strategies offer the best chances of resolving or containing them?
This is your last segment in 201C: *Activating Change Leadership at the Industry or Macro Level*. After this you will be ready to proceed to the Change Leadership 301 Series! In the 301 Series you will learn how to handle special challenges that arise in change initiatives.
Click here for an overview of the full [Change Leadership Learning Series](https://www.s3t.org/change-leadership-learning-series/).
---
###
**\[S3T playbooks\]**
- [Spend Wisely in a Hype-Driven World](https://www.s3t.org/spendwisely/)
- [Gaining Buy-in for Data Modernization](https://www.s3t.org/s3t-playbook-data-modernization/)
- [Flipping the Script: Understanding and Changing Internal & Macro Narratives](https://www.s3t.org/changing-internal-and-macro-narratives/)
- [Shift to effective gatekeeping in the age of generative AI](https://www.s3t.org/genai-supervisory-workloads/)
- [How to Stop Zombie Projects from Sapping your Focus and Resources](https://www.s3t.org/stop-zombie-projects/)
- [Harmonize Different Kinds of Expertise to Achieve Success](https://www.s3t.org/harmonize-expertise/)
- [Addressing issues related to uneven accountability](https://www.s3t.org/disabling-accountability-shields/)
- [Validating AI use cases](https://www.s3t.org/validating-ai-use-cases/)
- [6 Proven Ways to Resolve Conflicts](https://www.s3t.org/6-ways-to-resolve-conflicts/)
See [Full List of S3T Playbooks](https://www.s3t.org/playbooks/)
---
### **\[S3T panoramas\]**
- [Health](https://www.s3t.org/panorama-health/)
- [Macro](https://www.s3t.org/panorama-macro/)
- [Innovation](https://www.s3t.org/panorama-innovation/)
- [Habitat](https://www.s3t.org/panorama-habitat/)
- [Energy](https://www.s3t.org/panorama-energy/)
- [About S3T Panoramas](https://www.s3t.org/panoramas-about/)
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### 3 Hints from DeepSeek, High Flyer vs Chips & Capital, PE outlook, annual goals, fed layoffs
URL: https://www.s3t.org/jan-31-2025/
Last updated: 2025-01-31T13:36:27.000Z
*What if the biggest breakthroughs in AI, leadership, and finance don't come from the usual power players—but from those who rethink the rules entirely?*
S3T Podcast Jan 31 2025
0:00
/1391.0204081632653
1×
🎧 You can also [listen on Spotify](https://creators.spotify.com/pod/show/gets3t/episodes/High-Flyer-vs-Chips--Capital--PE-outlook--annual-goals--fed-layoffs-e2u7fea?ref=s3t.org)
---
### 🔥 Sneak Peak at what's in this edition of S3T
1️⃣ **🤖 DeepSeek & AI Evolution: 3 Hints** – A Chinese AI startup, DeepSeek, shocked markets with a *low-cost, high-performance AI model* using KV cache compression. This breakthrough challenges the idea that AI dominance is tied to *big capital and powerful chips*, signaling a shift toward *more efficient, engineer-driven AI innovation.* Markets reacted with volatility, reinforcing that AI disruption isn’t just about money.
2️⃣ **⚡ Change Leadership: Implementation Paths & Governance Evolution** – This week's learning segment explores how change leaders can drive impactful solutions faster. Traditional methods like legislation are too slow; instead, modern platforms (software, blockchain, etc.) enable rapid, scalable change. If you're a young executive or founder, *understanding these shifts is key to leading in a fast-moving world.*
3️⃣ **🦅 Federal Layoff Recovery Kit** – If you were laid off from your federal job, there's a free *Federal Layoff Recovery Kit* to help you turn this challenge into a *Level Up.* The kit is adapted from the original Layoff Recovery Kit and is based on lessons learned from past layoffs.
4️⃣ **📉 Private Equity & Market Trends** – While *private equity* (PE) deals, especially in healthcare M&A, are gaining traction, *valuation gaps* remain a huge risk. Many companies are overvalued, but buyers aren’t biting. A pile-up of overpriced assets is *restricting capital flow for new investments,* making it critical to understand realistic valuations and avoid costly misjudgments.
5️⃣ **🌎 S3T Economic Dashboard & Signals** – Stay ahead with real-time *US & global economic indicators* and key insights on *inflation, debt, and macroeconomic risks.* Experts warn that market overvaluations, debt levels, and *misleading inflation metrics* could lead to *long-term financial distortions*—or even a crisis if not addressed.
**🚀 Want deeper insights?** Check out the full lessons and reports to stay ahead in an evolving world!
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
---
## 🦅If you were laid off from the government
If you are among the thousands of dedicated federal employees affected by the recent layoffs or early retirements under the new administration, here is **a heartfelt thank you for your service and best wishes for your next chapter.** You may be feeling frustrated, confused, or even betrayed after giving years of service to your nation, ensuring that essential functions ran smoothly for the American people.
I created this free [Federal Layoff Recovery Kit](https://www.s3t.org/fedlayoffs/) to share lessons I learned about turning a layoff into a Level Up. This version is adapted from the original Layoff Recovery Kit. This week I wrote this adapted version, shared it with impacted individuals for feedback and wanted to share it here. [Click here for your Federal Layoff Recovery Kit](https://www.s3t.org/fedlayoffs/).
---
## **\[change leadership learning series\]**
Click to enlarge
### This week's lesson: [Implementation paths and the evolution of governance](https://www.s3t.org/evolution%5Fof%5Fgovernance/)
*This continues the 201C lessons which focus on activating Change Leadership at the Industry or Macro Level. See an overview of the full* [*Change Leadership Learning Series*](https://www.s3t.org/change-leadership-learning-series/)*.*
How to bring something to reality. How to get the desired outcome - faster. These are the top questions on the minds of change leaders.
In a world where urgency and complexity collide, the ability to implement impactful solutions quickly is **the ultimate competitive edge.** This learning segment dives into the evolution of implementation platforms—from ancient decrees to modern software releases—and reveals how today’s leaders must harness the fastest, most scalable paths to drive change.
Discover why traditional methods like legislation, while familiar, are often too slow and gridlocked to keep up with the pace of innovation. Instead, explore how software-driven platforms—think Facebook, TikTok, and blockchain ecosystems—are revolutionizing the way we solve problems, enabling rapid iteration, empirical learning, and global scalability at unprecedented speeds.
Learn how decentralized technologies like blockchain are not just tools but transformative forces, combining code, currency, and governance into programmable layers that empower users and redefine what’s possible. From Bitcoin’s rise to the next generation of financial ecosystems, this article shows how the future of implementation is already here—and how you can be part of it.
For young executives and founders, **this is your top strategy for cutting through complexity and leading change in a fast-moving world.** Whether you’re building a startup, launching a new initiative, or reimagining an industry, the insights here will inspire you to think bigger, move faster, and create solutions that matter. Don’t just adapt to the future—shape it.
Ready to transform your approach to problem-solving? Dive in and discover how to turn your boldest ideas into reality.
Governance (the way nations and industries implement and enforce policies) is evolving. This evolution gives change leaders new options. Understanding this evolution can help you understand the dynamics that impact large change efforts, find the way forward when things seem hopelessly blocked.
### Go to this week's lesson: [Implementation paths and the evolution of governance](https://www.s3t.org/evolution%5Fof%5Fgovernance/)
---
## **\[emerging tech\]**
Photo by [Chinh Le Duc](https://unsplash.com/@mero%5Fdnt?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### 🐳 3 hints DeepSeek gives us about the evolution of AI
This week Chinese AI startup DeepSeek [drove panic in the tech heavy stock market](https://www.barrons.com/articles/nvidia-stock-deepseek-ai-chip-selloff-9a1c1a77?ref=s3t.org) by announcing DeepSeek an advanced AI model that is far cheaper to create but achieves performance that is competitive with US AI models. The model relies on a breakthrough "[KV cache compression](https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/chinas-deepseek-sparks-ai-market-rout-2025-01-27/?ref=s3t.org)" to enable higher throughput with limited memory. See [Jan 22 DeepSeek R1 paper here](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2501.12948?ref=s3t.org). The lead developer Liang Wenfeng (who is also [co-founder of a quant hedge fund](https://www.reuters.com/technology/chinas-deepseek-sets-off-ai-market-rout-2025-01-27/?ref=s3t.org)) seems to have leapfrogged the competition [in 20 months with relatively little funding and outdated Nvidia chips](https://www.superhuman.ai/p/deepseek-s-origin-story?ref=s3t.org).
> "DeepSeek’s model does not fire on all cylinders at all times but rather gets activated at different phases of the total compute cycle. It predicts which part of the model would need to activate and thus keeps the computational workload at a minimum. This is quite different than Meta’s, Google’s, and Open AI’s LLMs that are on full tilt from the start." - [Shams Afzal CIC](https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/chinas-deepseek-sparks-ai-market-rout-2025-01-27/?ref=s3t.org)
### #1 Chips & capital don't guarantee AI dominance
As [Azeem Azar notes](https://www.exponentialview.co/p/deepseek-everything-you-need-to-know?ref=s3t.org), DeepSeek has been in development for some time and its unusually efficient approach was at least in part born from trade restrictions on more powerful chips. This pushed them down a road of "more engineers than data centers" and in the process **built something that puts OpenAI in a really uncomfortable position.**
But if you look at [this detailed historical timeline of High-Flyer](https://www.high-flyer.cn/en/history?ref=s3t.org), the quant hedge fund that formed DeepSeek, you'll see something else: this team has deep roots in
- non-conventional experimentation with math and AI,
- algorithmic trading and
- building supercomputers.
Their creative engineering comes from a long history of similarly complex ***problem solving under constraints*:** They couldn't just throw more hardware or datacenters at the problem.
S&P 500 [Courtesy of Yahoo!finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/chart/?ref=s3t.org#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-)
### #2 Volatility is the new normal
US Markets reacted sharply to the DeepSeek news, [with huge selloffs](https://www.reuters.com/technology/chinas-deepseek-sets-off-ai-market-rout-2025-01-27/?ref=s3t.org). While some see this as bullish stimulant that will drive more focused innovation and growth, the selloff is also a reminder that markets are concentrated to the point that extreme **volatility is probably the new normal.**
One final take: DeepSeek has shattered the notion that AI excellence can only be achieved by a few highly capitalized players. It turns out, **capital isn't everything.**
### #3 The 24/7 market is here - Wall St needs to catch up
The DeepSeek event underscores the growing need for U.S. markets to consider extended trading hours. DeepSeek's sudden appearance and the subsequent market reactions unfolded during international hours, leading to significant movements in tech stocks before U.S. markets opened.
While some Wall Street firms express concerns about the complexities of 24-hour trading—including risk management, staffing, and technological demands—the evolving global financial landscape may force this shift. The FT just published a [litany of Wall St's reasons for resisting the 24/7 cycle](https://www.ft.com/content/f711e768-5655-4c98-93bc-c83a8eab6c20?ref=s3t.org). All of them will require change/discomfort. None of them are impossible.
The cryptocurrency markets have long demonstrated the feasibility of 24-hour trading, offering investors the flexibility to respond to global events in real-time. In contrast, traditional U.S. stock markets have adhered to set trading hours, which can leave investors vulnerable to developments occurring outside these periods. (Growth opportunity for the likes of Coinbase?)
💡
Full Access Members: ****Ask your company to cover the cost of your S3T Full Access subscription!** [Here's an easy email template you can use right now](https://www.s3t.org/ask-your-company-to-cover-your-s3t-subscription-2/).
---
## **\[Macro\]**
🌎 [S3T Economic Dashboard](https://www.s3t.org/dashboard/) \- *Top 500+ US & Intl real-time economic indicators, plus latest significant developments and updated outlook.*
*🔮* [S3T Signals](https://www.s3t.org/signals/) *\- Curated list of top Economic Data & Insight sources for maintaining an independent forward perspective on economic realities that will impact your family, teams, customers and communities.*
### US Private Equity cautiously optimistic - but overvaluations still a key risk in 2025
Highlights from the [Pitchbook 2024 US Private Equity Report](https://pitchbook.com/news/reports/2024-annual-us-pe-breakdown?ref=s3t.org):
- Positives: PE including Healthcare M&A picked up steam in 2024, and valuation gaps are narrowing.
- Negatives: There was a slump in fundraising the last half of 2024 (see chart below) due to some gloom in the macro picture: the prospect of tariffs, US debt (interest payments and large budget cuts), higher inflation, and high levels of consumer debt.
[Courtesy Pitchbook and Stout 2024 US PE Breakdown](https://pitchbook.com/news/reports/2024-annual-us-pe-breakdown?ref=s3t.org)
### Factor to watch: how bad is the *valuation gap disease*?
This report and others mention the recurring issue of *valuation gaps* \- where a company or portfolio is estimated to be worth x amount, but subsequently proves to be worth a lower amount. This leaves investors with the unpleasant dilemma of either exiting with losses, or waiting for longer than usual in hopes of finding a buyer that will pay a higher valuation.
When this issue is widespread, it causes a pile up of overvalued assets all waiting for an eventual sale, which in turn reduces capital available for new investments.
The [Pitchbook NVCA chart](https://pitchbook.com/news/reports/q4-2024-pitchbook-nvca-venture-monitor?ref=s3t.org) below compares the number of pre-exit companies with $500M+ valuations vs. post-exit companies with $500M+ valuations. In simple terms, there are an unprecedented number of high priced companies but no one's buying them.
[Pitchbook NVCA Venture Monitor Dec 2024](https://pitchbook.com/news/reports/q4-2024-pitchbook-nvca-venture-monitor?ref=s3t.org)
Clearly something unhinged between 2020-2022\. In the years leading up to that point, the "fair market" prices of comparable assets gradually rose amid "easy money" and broad market conditions. Joseph Carson [offers a relevant diagnosis](https://www.haver.com/articles/the-fed-must-target-actual-inflation?ref=s3t.org) \- excerpt here (bolds added for emphasis):
> "Over the past sixteen years, from 1998 to 2024, the average S&P 500 P/E ratio was **26.7.** In contrast, during the preceding fifteen years, from 1983 to 1998, it averaged **15.** Is this just a coincidence, or could the alteration in inflation estimation for housing costs, combined with the Fed's emphasis on an inflation measure **representing only half of the actual inflation rate** experienced by people, partly explain this shift? This misleading measure of inflation and policy approach has led to maintaining official rates lower than they might have been otherwise, **which benefit finance, especially equity investments."**
Carson worries that the Fed and the financial establishment is unlikely to address these issues unless forced by a financial crisis.
## S3T Premium Feature: How to avoid valuation gaps
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### Navigating Emerging Tech Risks: Strategies for Leaders
URL: https://www.s3t.org/navigating-emerging-tech-risks-strategies-for-leaders/
Last updated: 2025-01-24T04:10:48.000Z
*AI's workforce revolution, and the secrets of navigating emerging tech risks —discover how rising leaders stay ahead in a rapidly reshaping world.*
---
S3T Podcast Jan 24, 2024
0:00
/1557.4726530612245
1×
### In this Issue
1️⃣ **AGI is Here...Almost:**
OpenAI claims they now know how to create Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) and foresee AI agents joining the workforce by 2025, fundamentally reshaping productivity. 🤖💼
2️⃣ **Workforce Shift Ahead:**
AI and automation are taking over operations, shrinking traditional roles, and expanding opportunities in **innovation, strategy, and AI governance**. Are we prepared for this shift? 🌐⚙️
3️⃣ **AI Partnerships for the Future:**
OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank announced the "Stargate" AI Infrastructure Project, aiming to revolutionize data centers and leverage AI to address key issues like healthcare. 🛰️🏥
4️⃣ **Crypto: Boom or Bust?**
Memecoins like $TRUMP surged but raised concerns about fairness and sustainability. Meanwhile, Solana demonstrated its resilience under pressure, prompting crypto investors to rethink strategies. 📈💰
5️⃣ **Emerging Tech & Risk Phases:**
Understanding the four phases of tech adoption—Experimentation, Stabilization, Adoption, and Absorption—is critical for change leaders to drive influence and navigate stakeholder concerns. 🚀🔄
---
## **\[emerging tech\]**
### AGI: We have the recipe but are we ready?
Sam Altman says - [in his reflection on ChatGPT's 2nd birthday](https://blog.samaltman.com/reflections?ref=s3t.org) \- OpenAI now knows how to create Artificial General Intelligence (AGI):
> We are now confident we know how to build AGI as we have traditionally understood it. We believe that, in 2025, we may see the first AI agents “join the workforce” and materially change the output of companies. We continue to believe that iteratively putting great tools in the hands of people leads to great, broadly-distributed outcomes.
### **Are we ready for how AI will reshape the workforce?**
### **Moving workers out of operations/execution**
In the 20th century, jobs were predominantly focused on execution and operations. A relatively small group of innovators created plans that were carried out by a massive workforce handling operational processes, manufacturing, and service delivery.
**The 21st century is rewriting this script.** AI, robotics, and automation are rapidly taking over execution and operational tasks. This shift is shrinking the job market for traditional operational roles and radically altering workforce composition.
Here’s what’s emerging:
1️⃣ **Front-End Growth:** Opportunities in ideation, innovation, and entrepreneurship are expanding. Humans are uniquely equipped to generate new ideas and push creative boundaries.
2️⃣ **Back-End Expansion:** Supervisory roles are growing to ensure the safe and ethical use of AI. Functions like AI governance, safety testing, audits, and compliance are becoming critical.
What's shrinking - quickly - is the middle: Execution and operations are becoming domains of AI and automation, leaving humans to lead in creativity, control, and strategy.
Are you ready to adapt? **Educators and Executives alike need to consider how to move workers out of the middle and into the front end or back end functions.**
### Are we ready to restrain AI if we need to: AI Capability Control
A good general explanation of approaches for monitoring and controlling the behavior and impact of AI systems is taking shape on Wikipedia. [Latest version here is worth a read & bookmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI%5Fcapability%5Fcontrol?ref=s3t.org).
Notes on the use of self-training on the path to AGI and super-intelligence from the [LessWrong forum](https://www.lesswrong.com/about?ref=s3t.org):
> Every problem that an o1 solves is now a training data point for an o3 (eg. any o1 session which finally stumbles into the right answer can be refined to drop the dead ends and produce a clean transcript to train a more refined intuition).
The piece also notes that Inference-time search (tuning to improve a model's outputs without changing the model itself) is a useful and quick way to enhance the performance of a language model during deployment, but cannot fundamentally overcome the limitations of a model's training.
---
### OpenAI, Oracle and SoftBank partner on "Stargate" AI Infrastructure Project
The three companies announced the initiative at the White House this week. The company leaders - interestingly - mentioned the [ability of AI to help address healthcare issues](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-announces-private-sector-ai-infrastructure-investment/?ref=s3t.org), with Larry Ellison [noting a connection to digital health records](https://apnews.com/article/japan-softbank-masayoshi-trump-ai-d45efad6e48f80579456fe48dba95562?ref=s3t.org).
[OpenAI's announcement here](https://openai.com/index/announcing-the-stargate-project/?ref=s3t.org). OpenAI is asking interested partners to [reach out to them by filling out this form](https://openai.com/form/stargate-infrastructure/?ref=s3t.org).
> "we want to connect with firms **across the built data center infrastructure landscape**, from power and land to construction to equipment, and everything in between" - [OpenAI announcement](https://openai.com/form/stargate-infrastructure/?ref=s3t.org)
Multiple reports [suggest the project actually started in 2024](https://time.com/7209021/trump-stargate-oracle-openai-softbank-ai-infrastructure-investment/?ref=s3t.org) as plans for [a supercomputer named "Stargate" were taking shape](https://www.theverge.com/2024/4/22/24137391/microsoft-hires-meta-ai-supercomputing-jason-taylor?ref=s3t.org) between Microsoft and OpenAI. In late 2024 [OpenAI pitched the White House the idea of building large data centers in multiple states](https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/heres-the-5gw-30-million-sq-ft-data-center-pitch-doc-openai-showed-the-white-house/?ref=s3t.org).
---
### AI's Open vs Closed Models
[Courtesy of CBInsights](https://research.cbinsights.com/winners-losers?ref=s3t.org)
---
###
## **\[economics\]**
*Full Access Members: See the* [*S3T Economic Dashboard*](https://www.s3t.org/dashboard/) *for the Top 500+ US & International real-time economic indicators.*
### Trump Family Memecoins: The Good, the Bad and Let's hope it doesn't get Ugly
Just before the inauguration CICD Digital launched a $TRUMP coin, which saw unprecedented surge in price, [rising to become \~90% of Trump's total net worth](https://www.financialexpress.com/world-news/president-elect-donald-trumps-memecoin-now-accounts-for-nearly-90-of-his-net-worth-heres-how/3720378/?ref=s3t.org). A subsequent Melania coin seemed to have a negative impact(?) with the values of both coins falling.
In the weeks since the 2024 election, there seemed to be a rising confidence that crypto's worst days were over. The incoming administration had signaled it was strongly pro-crypto and Gary Gensler was leaving the SEC. Finally - the narrative went - tech talent in the US will be allowed to unleash a new era of innovation that will improve financial equity and efficiency, and establish the US as an essential economic leader and cornerstone of global trade for decades if not centuries to come. That bright narrative has now been thrown into question.
### The Good:
**The weekend was a stress test of the Solana network:** 4 Billion stable coins came into Solana less than 48 hrs. Solana showed its ability to handle crushing loads of transactions. Personally I expect that Solana will be a first pick for high volume projects going forward. This will likely prompt 2 things:
- Portfolio rebalancing from crypto investors who were betting on which chains will win out. Solana has further cemented its place on the short list of essential blockchains.
- A rethinking of Ethereum's strategic roadmap ("Rollups would have never been able to handle this load" was the way one insider put it),
**The weekend also saw a jump in adoption of crypto wallets:** Moonshot (the official referred app for buying and trading $TRUMP coin) became one of the top apps on the mobile app stores...bringing a huge new group of users to non-centralized exchange wallets. This is interesting...to date the conventional wisdom has been that regular consumers will never "hold their own crypto" in their own wallets because crypto wallets are too hard to use. This assured centralized exchanges like Coinbase that they will always be the retail investor's go to choice. That may be subject to change if personal wallets like Moonshot continue to gain adoption.
### But will this be good for crypto? Maybe not...
In this [Unchained podcast panel discussion of crypto insiders](https://unchainedcrypto.com/the-chopping-block-trumps-crypto-shake-up-solanas-big-moment-that-changes-everything/?ref=s3t.org), sentiment was wary, and on certain points pessimistic, amid several concerns:
- That the $TRUMP coin will be perceived as a "grifty" memecoin stunt that takes money from non-savvy retail investors and puts it into the wallets of billionaires. This perception, especially if reinforced by documented harm to retail investors who bought $TRUMP coin, could hinder the establishment of balanced fair regulations for crypto.
- The potential to turn into a negative experience for retail investors: CICD Digital (and apparently Trump) hold the majority of the coin supply (80+ percent). The unlocks (a provision allowing CICD/Trump to start selling their coins at the market price) start 3 months for now...this will most likely cause the price to drop...meaning the retail investors who paid $30, $40 or more for $TRUMP coins will likely see the price plummet to $20 or lower. This is very very common among memecoins.
- That the $TRUMP coin and its aftermath could distract from the more important policy work, figuring out fair sustainable regulations, permission-less money, the relationship between Bitcoin and US Gov, etc. ([Michael Taylor and Trump cabinet members met to discuss](https://cryptoslate.com/michael-saylor-mara-execs-meet-with-trump-team-aligning-with-possible-bitcoin-reserve/?ref=s3t.org), but this news was overshadowed by hoopla around the $TRUMP coin.
In summary, the launch of these memecoins - by an incoming President no less does seem to signal that a new era of financial innovation has begun. The question is, how serious and beneficial will it actually be?
---
## **\[S3T panoramas\]**
*S3T Panoramas are publications that help leaders connect dots between large trends, identify indicators and place them in a framework.*
- [Health](https://www.s3t.org/panorama-health/)
- [Macro](https://www.s3t.org/panorama-macro/)
- [Innovation](https://www.s3t.org/panorama-innovation/)
- [Habitat](https://www.s3t.org/panorama-habitat/)
- [Energy](https://www.s3t.org/panorama-energy/)
- [About S3T Panoramas](https://www.s3t.org/panoramas-about/)
---
## **\[change leadership learning series\]**
Photo by [Ricardo Arce](https://unsplash.com/@jrarce?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## This week's lesson: [4 Phases of risk & reward for emerging tech](https://www.s3t.org/4-phases-of-risk-reward-for-emerging-tech/)
*Effective change leaders understand (and leverage) the 4 phase process of how "the New & Unfamiliar" becomes "Accepted & Familiar" over time.*
Understanding these four phases isn’t just useful; **it’s essential.** It will help you anticipate the kinds of concerns that your stakeholders will raise when you propose a bold idea.
Different categories of investors and stakeholders have different levels of tolerance for different phases. Some with high risk tolerance will prefer to be involved as early as possible. Others will prefer to get on board later. We will examine why this is, and how you can use this understanding to increase your ability to influence and drive change.
*Click the link above to access this week's lesson. You can also access an overview of the full* [*Change Leadership Learning Series here*](https://www.s3t.org/change-leadership-learning-series/)*.*
---
##
### **\[S3T playbooks\]**
- [Spend Wisely in a Hype-Driven World](https://www.s3t.org/spendwisely/)
- [Gaining Buy-in for Data Modernization](https://www.s3t.org/s3t-playbook-data-modernization/)
- [Flipping the Script: Understanding and Changing Internal & Macro Narratives](https://www.s3t.org/changing-internal-and-macro-narratives/)
- [Shift to effective gatekeeping in the age of generative AI](https://www.s3t.org/genai-supervisory-workloads/)
- [How to Stop Zombie Projects from Sapping your Focus and Resources](https://www.s3t.org/stop-zombie-projects/)
- [Harmonize Different Kinds of Expertise to Achieve Success](https://www.s3t.org/harmonize-expertise/)
- [Addressing issues related to uneven accountability](https://www.s3t.org/disabling-accountability-shields/)
- [Validating AI use cases](https://www.s3t.org/validating-ai-use-cases/)
- [6 Proven Ways to Resolve Conflicts](https://www.s3t.org/6-ways-to-resolve-conflicts/)
See [Full List of S3T Playbooks](https://www.s3t.org/playbooks/)
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### Fully automated finance: Seize the moment in financial innovation - Don't wait
URL: https://www.s3t.org/jan-17-2025/
Last updated: 2025-01-21T12:13:17.000Z
*AI-Powered financial agents in crypto offer hint of coming financial automation. Don’t wait for change to come to you—be the force shaping it. 🌟*
Fully Automated Finance - S3T Podcast Jan 17 2025
0:00
/1399.9542857142858
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Click above to listen here, or [listen on Spotify](https://creators.spotify.com/pod/show/gets3t/episodes/Fully-automated-finance-Seize-the-moment-in-financial-innovation---Dont-wait-e2tjtgl?ref=s3t.org).
### Executive Summary: Unlock Opportunities and Stay Ahead with Emerging Trends 🌟📊
1. **🌡️ Climate Insights to Drive Strategic Action**
NOAA’s report reveals record-breaking surface temperatures and a surge in climate anomalies. With wildfires consuming vast areas, leaders who understand the ripple effects on industries and communities can position themselves as foresight driven innovators.
2. **🚀 Master the Future of Change Leadership**
Congratulations on progressing to "Industry and Macro-Level Change Leadership" in the Change Leadership Learning Series! This week’s lesson—building and sustaining coalitions—equips you to lead transformative initiatives at scale. Stay ahead by mastering this essential skill.
3. **🤖 Seize the Moment in Financial Innovation**
AI-powered platforms like Virtuals.io are rewriting financial operations, demonstrating how autonomous agents can manage complex tasks with unmatched efficiency. Forward-thinking leaders who engage now will redefine what’s possible in banking, insurance, and wealth creation.
4. **💡 Bold Moves for Visionary Leaders**
To thrive in this era of rapid innovation, prioritize:
- **Upskilling**: Empower your team with expertise in AI and blockchain.
- **Strategic Investment**: Channel resources into scalable, next-gen platforms.
- **Partnerships**: Collaborate with pioneers shaping the future of finance.
- **Regulatory Alignment**: Proactively shape policies that balance innovation with compliance.
5. **🔍 Redefine How Business Gets Done**
Imagine a future where financial transactions are automated, audits are continuous, and your team focuses on strategy over operations. There is an overwhelming competitive advantage waiting for those who are willing to actively learn and prepare for **a world of fully automated finance.** Leaders who reimagine workforce roles and technological investments now will dominate the next wave of market disruption.
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
---
## **\[nature notes\]**
###
Climate anomalies proliferate amid highest surface temps on record
NOAA has released their [annual climate events report](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202413?ref=s3t.org), this year featuring a record number of anomalies amid highest surface temps since global record keeping began in 1850\. See image below courtesy of NOAA.
Click to zoom
Climate change is driving new migration patterns, with real estate buyers moving away from high-risk areas (e.g., flood zones, drought-stricken regions) to more temperate and resilient locations. Expect savvy global real estate clients to be increasingly interested in properties in regions perceived as climate refuges, such as Canada, Northern Europe, or higher-altitude areas. Realtors who understand and market these opportunities can tap into this growing segment.
Related: LA wildfires [have consumed more than 23,000 acres](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cg525q2ggl4o?ref=s3t.org) \- this BBC piece features the size of the burnt area superimposed over NY City and London. See image below courtesy of BBC.
---
## **\[change leadership learning series\]**
*Congratulations! If you've been working through the Change Leadership Learning Series, you've completed 201A (Personal Level Change Leadership) and 201B (Org Level Change Leadership). You're now starting the 201C lessons* which *focus on activating Change Leadership at the Industry or Macro Level.*
Click here for an overview of the full [Change Leadership Learning Series](https://www.s3t.org/change-leadership-learning-series/).
Photo by [Brett Wharton](https://unsplash.com/@brettwharton?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### This week's lesson: [Build and sustain effective coalitions](https://www.s3t.org/building-and-sustaining-effective-coalitions/)
Large-scale changes usually cannot be achieved by a single person or group. They usually require the combined resources and support of ***a coalition of multiple groups***. Click the link to learn how you can build and sustain an effective coalition for driving change at an industry or national level.
Also: [3 Questions to get you ready for the coming week](https://www.s3t.org/readyfortheweek/)
---
## **\[Emerging Tech\]**
##
## At the edge of Gen AI, glimpsing the future of finance
Photo by [Christina Kirschnerova](https://unsplash.com/@tina%5F96?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
As some ponder the [obsoletion of the traditional business cycle](https://www.haver.com/articles/is-the-business-cycle-obsolete-not-completely-but-the-way-it-ends-has-changed?ref=s3t.org), new players like [Virtuals.io](https://www.virtuals.io/about?ref=s3t.org) are showing how the convergence of AI and blockchain technology will transform the financial landscape. The platform currently hosts what appear to be bots spewing stuff on X, but many of these are backed by tokens and are holding millions of $ in value.
Where is this value coming from? People are "investing" in *co-owning* these bots. Notice the Market Cap figures in the leaderboard below:
[Virtual.io Tokenized Agents Leaderboard](https://app.virtuals.io/?ref=s3t.org)
If you suspect this ends in tears for most participants, you may be right. BUT the emerging pattern of autonomous *financial* agents operating without the overhead and staff of your typical financial institution is gaining plausibility.
To spotlight a specific example of how these agents *make money*, [AIXBT](https://askaixbt.tech/sec.html?ref=s3t.org) (#4 on the leaderboard above) is an agent created on the Virtual.io protocol that shares news summaries, analysis and commentary [via an automated account on X](https://x.com/aixbt%5Fagent?ref=s3t.org). You can pose questions or interact with AIXBT, but if you want **to guarantee yourself a response from the agent, you have to hold at least 600,000 AIXBT tokens**. (For full details, see [Terms and Conditions here](https://aixbt.tech/terms?ref=s3t.org)).
Silly as they may seem, Virtuals.io and similar players are demonstrating how AI-powered financial agents can **leverage blockchain capabilities to autonomously perform complex financial functions** traditionally handled by large teams, including decision-making, trading, and even wealth generation...and do so with an unprecedented level of efficiency.
🏗️ See the [Virtuals.io Getting Started Guide](https://whitepaper.virtuals.io/developer-documents/game-framework/content-hub/how-to-guides/getting-started-with-ai-agents-on-virtuals-protocol-a-comprehensive-guide?ref=s3t.org) to learn how to create and deploy your own AI agent using the Virtual Protocol.
## Existential moment for traditional finance and insurance?
Traditional finance and insurance may be facing an existential moment: lean in and figure out how to make this stuff work, or hand over the reins to a new set of (virtual?) owners. Some counter that the US financial system will never tolerate a non-dollar regulatory system and currency. But crypto's growth trend since 2009 - while ragged and volatile - says otherwise and seems set to continue.
### 💯Key Takeaways: How to prepare and invest for the near future
*The following* Premium Content for Full Access Members explains pivotal points to keep top of mind and socialize with your t*eams, key readiness exercises for your leaders, and actionable recommendations to implement in your organization.*
*If* you *are not a Full* Access *Member,* [*Click here to start your Full Access experience today!*](https://www.s3t.org/change-leadership-30-day-free-trial)
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### The new 3Rs - risk, relearn, rethink...are you ready for 2025?
URL: https://www.s3t.org/the-new-3rs/
Last updated: 2025-01-10T06:28:16.000Z
*2025 will test us. The geopolitical landscape is changing, new tech capabilities are emerging faster than ever, and the financial architecture of the world is being completely reinvented. The risks' require us to be ready to relearn and rethink just about everything we know.*
---
S3T Podcast Jan 10, 2025
0:00
/1015.04
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### In this Issue
- 🌍 **2025: A Year of Change: Geopolitics and finance are shifting fast,** demanding fresh thinking and flexibility. Leaders must embrace collaboration and optimism to navigate uncertainty.
- 📉 **Market Risks Loom: Deleveraging may trigger selloffs,** affecting big tech and crypto. Private equity’s push for 401K access raises risks for retirement savers.
- 🔋 **Energy and Tech Push Forward: Grid upgrades and renewables expand,** while US oil production faces long-term limits. NVIDIA’s AI PCs and OpenAI’s struggles reveal evolving tech landscapes.
- 🛠️ **Change Leadership Tools: Foster an ownership mindset** in partners for better execution. S3T’s learning series offers actionable steps for driving change.
- 📊 **Leadership Resources to Guide You: Dashboards, playbooks, and learning tools** help leaders tackle volatility, leverage innovation, and succeed in a fast-changing world.
---
Good to read the fine print...(USA Today Wed Jan 3)
## **\[perspective\]**
###
**2025: the year of rethinking and relearning**
The global economy is evolving rapidly—branching and transforming in unexpected ways:
- Market deleveraging and volatility loom large on the horizon.
- IPOs are rebounding, while private equity could reshape retirement savings.
- The tech divide is widening, reinforcing economic disparities between those in tech careers and those left out...in spite of attempts to attract young people into STEM.
In this era of reinvention, the shifting financial architecture of the world economy and the accelerating pace of innovation demand new approaches. Expect plenty of mixed signals (The front page image above is a great example). Get ready to relearn and rethink just about everything you know.
### Here are 4 ways we’ll need to rethink and relearn in 2025:
1. **Patience vs. Procrastination**
Know when waiting is productive and when it’s avoidance. Insight often comes in moments of stillness—but timing is everything.
2. **Unlearning and Pivoting**
Let go of old assumptions and be ready to adapt. Complex problems demand fresh perspectives and flexibility.
3. **Collaboration Over Division**
Solving big problems requires trust and blending diverse expertise. Open communication will be a critical skill.
4. **Optimism with Precision**
Say, “Let’s try,” even when unsure. Look for moments of clarity to act decisively and drive progress.
Each of these shifts will help us navigate the uncertainties and opportunities ahead.
---
### **\[macro-economics\]**
*See the* [*S3T Economics Dashboard*](https://www.s3t.org/dashboard/) *for the Top 500+ US & Intl real-time economic indicators.*
**Market Risk & Volatility on the Horizon**
- Large investors may moderate their big tech holdings in anticipation of a long overdue correction, as the Fed's continued war on inflation [pushes investors to reduce use of borrowed funds](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4745808-stock-market-deleveraging-risk-2025?source=acquisition%5Fcampaign%5Fgoogle&campaign%5Fid=21764264540&internal%5Fpromotion=true&utm%5Fsource=google&utm%5Fmedium=cpc&utm%5Fcampaign=21764264540&utm%5Fterm=170599029960%5Edsa-1485125208378%5E%5E715438292153%5E%5E%5Eg&hsa%5Facc=5428037747&hsa%5Fcam=21764264540&hsa%5Fgrp=170599029960&hsa%5Fad=715438292153&hsa%5Fsrc=g&hsa%5Ftgt=dsa-1485125208378&hsa%5Fkw=&hsa%5Fmt=&hsa%5Fnet=adwords&hsa%5Fver=3&gad%5Fsource=1&gbraid=0AAAAACup1Py96GjwVG%5Fl%5FR4bpKWthqs18&gclid=CjwKCAiAm-67BhBlEiwAEVftNuJF55V2tfQfSTiq1dKBI1VbWWQEH8bbXRtl8ZzQmVtBuIpoYbN88xoCYhAQAvD%5FBwE) ("de-leveraging") - as crypto investors know, this can force spectacular selloffs and market crashes.
- Best 10 minute overview of crypto impact to macroeconomics in 2025 and beyond: [NLWs Ghost of Bitcoin Future podcast episode](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-breakdown/id1438693620?i=1000682226721&ref=s3t.org). NLW expects large nations to adopt a non-inflationary asset (such as bitcoin) as they realize “they are trading their production for depreciating currency.” For latest prices and market cap rankings, see the [S3T Crypto Market Caps chart](https://www.s3t.org/cmc/).
- Private Equity - looking for more $ to chew thru - is lobbying the incoming Trump administration to grant them a long held wish: use 401K funds to buy and sell companies. [Caution for retirement savers](https://www.investopedia.com/retirement-investors-interested-private-equity-experts-urge-caution-8730026?ref=s3t.org): Money could be locked in for a long time, fees will be higher, and [transparency/ accountability will be subjective](https://www.investmentnews.com/retirement-planning/could-private-equity-be-a-benefit-for-dc-plans/258192?ref=s3t.org). See [this deeper dive](https://www.wagnerlawgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/1101401/2023/04/041023CapitolForumArticleTECQuote.pdf?ref=s3t.org).
"Retirees have historically not had access to private equity funds for good reason, which is that private equity investments are opaque, they are risky, and they might not even be that good for the ordinary investor.”
\- Brendan Ballou, author **Plunder: Private Equity’s Plan to Pillage America*.
Underlying issue: Private Equity returns are supposedly driven by improved operating efficiencies imposed by the PE firms. The reality is, their returns in recent times have been driven by leverage and broad market valuation fads, McKinsey finds [here](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/private-capital/our-insights/bridging-private-equitys-value-creation-gap?ref=s3t.org), and [here](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/private-capital/our-insights/mckinseys-private-markets-annual-review?ref=s3t.org).
👉 Full Access Members: [The S3T Macro Panorama](https://www.s3t.org/panorama-macro/) sets these developments in their full context.
**Energy investment and production**
- Power grid investment is booming, not just from the energy competition between Crypto mining vs. AI. [Demand for more power lines and equipment](https://www.economist.com/business/2025/01/05/a-new-electricity-supercycle-is-under-way?ref=s3t.org) is being driven by dispersed solar & wind collection points.
- Look for increased US oil production but the economic benefits may not be that positive warns the [Economist](https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/12/09/how-much-oil-can-trump-pump?ref=s3t.org). Context to understand: The Permian Basin that straddles TX and NM - what some [consider to be the world's biggest oilfield](https://pboilandgasmagazine.com/the-worlds-biggest-oilfield/?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=Total%20production%20over%20the%20century,least%2020%20billion%20barrels%20remaining) \- is believed to hold enough oil to [sustain US oil production through 2030](https://fairfieldgeo.com/blog/permian-gains-will-sustain-u-s-oil-production-through-2030?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=The%20Permian%20Basin%2C%20a%20prolific,Bakken%20and%20Eagle%20Ford%20Shale), but not much further.
### **\[emerging tech\]**
- NVIDIA gets into the PC business with Digits, [an AI Supercomputer based on its Blackwell chip](https://www.wired.com/story/nvidia-personal-supercomputer-ces/?ref=s3t.org). The unit appears set to democratize AI model training. This appears to compete directly with territory Apple's high end MacBooks hoped to hold on to.
- [Big Tech hopes to disrupt Washington](https://www.economist.com/leaders/2025/01/02/tech-is-coming-to-washington-prepare-for-a-clash-of-cultures?ref=s3t.org), but has deep disagreements with Trump's MAGA base on trade, [immigration](https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/india-immigrants-and-trump-appointees-central-to-maga-civil-war-by-shashi-tharoor-2025-01?a%5Fla=english&a%5Fd=6776b72b221a54194768e951&a%5Fm=&a%5Fa=click&a%5Fs=&a%5Fp=homepage&a%5Fli=india-immigrants-and-trump-appointees-central-to-maga-civil-war-by-shashi-tharoor-2025-01&ref=s3t.org), manufacturing and more.
- OpenAI's $200 per month ChatGPT Pro Plan [is losing money](https://techcrunch.com/2025/01/05/openai-is-losing-money-on-its-pricey-chatgpt-pro-plan-ceo-sam-altman-says/?ref=s3t.org) because it's being used more than expected, another sign that OpenAI [still hasn't figured out its business model](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/27/openai-needs-more-capital-than-wed-imagined-moves-to-for-profit.html?ref=s3t.org).
## **\[change leadership learning series\]**
### This week's lesson: [The top 4 ways to cultivate an ownership mindset in your vendors and partners](https://www.s3t.org/how-to-cultivate-an-owership-mindset-in-vendors-and-partners/).
An *ownership mindset* improves our ability to fine-tune our execution and achieve the required outcomes. **Change Leaders gain an edge by cultivating an ownership mindset in the vendors and partners they work with**. Learn the 4 top ways to kindle an ownership mindset in your vendors and partners. Click the link above to get started.
*Once you've completed this segment, you'll be ready to move on to 201C: Activating Change Leadership at the Industry or Macro Level! That lesson will arrive in next week's newsletter.*
Click here for an overview of the full [Change Leadership Learning Series](https://www.s3t.org/change-leadership-learning-series/).
---
### **\[panoramas\]**
- [Health](https://www.s3t.org/panorama-health/)
- [Macro](https://www.s3t.org/panorama-macro/)
- [Innovation](https://www.s3t.org/panorama-innovation/)
- [Habitat](https://www.s3t.org/panorama-habitat/)
- [Energy](https://www.s3t.org/panorama-energy/)
- [About S3T Panoramas](https://www.s3t.org/panoramas-about/)
###
**\[playbooks\]**
[Full List of S3T Playbooks](https://www.s3t.org/playbooks/)
- [Spend Wisely in a Hype-Driven World](https://www.s3t.org/spendwisely/)
- [Gaining Buy-in for Data Modernization](https://www.s3t.org/s3t-playbook-data-modernization/)
- [Flipping the Script: Understanding and Changing Internal & Macro Narratives](https://www.s3t.org/changing-internal-and-macro-narratives/)
- [Shift to effective gatekeeping in the age of generative AI](https://www.s3t.org/genai-supervisory-workloads/)
- [How to Stop Zombie Projects from Sapping your Focus and Resources](https://www.s3t.org/stop-zombie-projects/)
- [Harmonize Different Kinds of Expertise to Achieve Success](https://www.s3t.org/harmonize-expertise/)
- [Addressing issues related to uneven accountability](https://www.s3t.org/disabling-accountability-shields/)
- [Validating AI use cases](https://www.s3t.org/validating-ai-use-cases/)
- [6 Proven Ways to Resolve Conflicts](https://www.s3t.org/6-ways-to-resolve-conflicts/)
## Thank you for reading and sharing S3T so others can learn how to drive the change they wish to bring to the world. Have a great week!
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### Jan 3 - Our Mission...did we actually accept it?
URL: https://www.s3t.org/jan-3-our-mission-did-we-actually-accept-it-2/
Last updated: 2025-01-03T06:28:57.000Z
S3T Jan 3 2024
0:00
/781.7404081632653
1×
*🎧 click the audio player above to listen here, or* [*listen on Spotify*](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org)*.*
*Welcome to the first S3T newsletter of 2025! As we step into the new year, with its evolving economic and tech landscape, we're focusing on *what's missing from our mission statements as well as our personal goals: a crucial lost ingredient.* This ingredient makes the difference between true commitment vs purpose washing. Activity vs Impact. Character vs Charades. Once we add this ingredient, we have a far better chance of achieving what we want to achieve in 2025 and beyond.*
### In this Edition of S3T: Key Takeaways on Missions and Sacrifices 🌟
- **💡 Mission Without Sacrifice is Empty:** Lofty mission statements abound, but true impact demands sacrifices—be it time, resources, or comfort. Without sacrifice, missions remain hollow aspirations.
- **🎯 Sacrifice Fuels Commitment:** Meaningful goals require readiness to forego short-term gains, personal recognition, and even stability to achieve long-term, collective success.
- **🔄 Embrace Change for Growth:** Letting go of old paradigms and embracing transparency, innovation, and agility are essential steps toward realizing transformative missions.
- **🤝 Accountability Over Charades:** Uneven accountability within organizations hinders progress. True leadership involves owning responsibility and aligning actions with values, ensuring cultural integrity.
- **📖 Learn & Lead:** Explore the *S3T Change Leadership Learning Series* for actionable strategies on resolving dependency challenges and fostering even accountability in your team.
✨ *What are you ready to sacrifice in 2025 to make your mission a reality?*
---
Photo by [Gabriel Garcia Marengo](https://unsplash.com/@gabrielgm?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
##
🔍What's Missing from Mission Statements - and Goals...
### If you look at the mission statements of the world's corporations, they are generous, visionary, powerful:
- "We aim to build a better world — helping people live better and renew the planet while building thriving, resilient communities." - [Walmart](https://corporate.walmart.com/purpose?ref=s3t.org)
- "We innovate every day to make the world a healthier place" - [Pfizer](https://www.pfizer.com/about/purpose?ref=s3t.org)
- "Nurture the limitless possibilities of human connection" - [Starbucks](https://about.starbucks.com/stories/2023/a-new-mission-for-starbucks/?ref=s3t.org)
- "Improving the quality of life in the communities we serve" - [Fidelity Bank](https://www.fidelitybankonline.com/our-story/our-mission-vision-values/?ref=s3t.org)
- "Make the health system work better for everyone" - [UnitedHealth](https://www.unitedhealthgroup.com/uhg/mission-values.html?ref=s3t.org)
([See 51 more mission statements here](https://www.ebaqdesign.com/blog/mission-statements?ref=s3t.org))
### You can't help but think: Wow, if all of these companies were actually delivering on their mission statements, the world would be a healed and thriving place.
After all, these are the largest, most profitable, highly capitalized teams on the planet.
These companies possess enormous pools of talent, technology and assets. Their leadership is carefully selected, highly trained, and compensated higher than 99% of the world's population.
These companies leverage the most modern and powerful new technologies to ensure they are efficient and effective.
In addition, these companies have highly influential marketing, branding and government affairs teams - all capable of the most compelling forms of selling and persuasion. They have - more than any other entity - the ability to make their voice heard and make their influence felt.
Surely if this group decides to focus on a mission, then that mission is as good as done. Nothing should ever be able to stand in their way.
### Yet year after year, what unfolds in the world is exactly the opposite of these corporate mission statements. Why?
Some will say it's because these mission statements are just stickers or aspirations, not *destinations*. Purpose-washing. While that certainly could be true in a few cases, it can't possibly be the only, or even the dominant explanation.
Those same companies typically have ethics officers, and spend significant sums training their employees on the importance of culture, vision, mission, impact. In addition, many of the talented employees themselves are very passionate about the mission, and have plenty of options to go somewhere else if they feel like the mission isn't being taken seriously.
Maybe there's another more fundamental reason why we are not seeing more progress. This more fundamental reason would apply at either the organizational level and the personal level.
Let's take this down to a personal level. You're probably a very sincere, capable person. Why didn't you achieve what you wanted to achieve in 2024? Why didn't I?
Here's something for us to think about:
### Mission without sacrifice is meaningless
Recently I heard someone talking about annual goals - and they made a really good point: "Don't just write down your goals. *Write down *what you're willing to give up in order to achieve them."**
There is no mission without sacrifice. *If you haven't decided what you'll sacrifice for your mission, have you actually embraced that mission?*
This applies whether you are personally setting your purpose and objectives for this year, or whether you are part of a group setting the mission of an organization.
When we display our Mission and Vision statements in town halls and team meetings, the slide right after that needs to say, **"And here's what we're willing to sacrifice in order to achieve that mission."**
What stops capable individuals and companies alike from having the impact they want to have? Not being ready and willing to make sacrifices. When I set out to do something, whether I realize it or not, I'm deciding to *not* do some other things. I'm deciding to give up some things. Or to defer or de-prioritize some things.
The same is true for organizations. Without sacrifice, there is no meaningful mission. And there is no realistic way to achieve the mission.
True power is fueled by a level of commitment that is ready to make sacrifices and do whatever it takes to achieve the mission. This level of commitment and readiness is important both in the time of preparation, the time of execution and especially during times of crucial decision-making.
If ultimately everything we do boils down to risk averse hedging, then we at least owe to the world and to ourselves to write an honest mission statement that reflects our true intention: "We are here to protect ourselves for as long as we can and make others sacrifice instead of us".
Every meaningful mission ever undertaken, required significant sacrifice. So what are some of the sacrifices we should be prepared to make?
### **Sacrifices that will enable a person or an organization to achieve your Mission:**
1. **Sacrifice Short-Term Gains for Long-Term Impact.** Be willing to forgo immediate profits or benefits to invest in initiatives that create long term sustainable benefits and drive toward your target outcome.
2. **Sacrifice Individual Recognition for Collective Success**. Shift focus from personal credit to team achievements. Work together to make sure that the mission benefits from strong collaboration and shared leadership.
3. **Sacrifice Efficiency for Inclusion.** Accept that involving diverse voices and perspectives may take more time, and may feel like 'losing control', but it will ultimately lead to more comprehensive understanding of the problems to solve, better decisions, and much better outcomes.
4. **Sacrifice Resources for Innovation**. Be ready to allocate time, money, and energy toward untested ideas that could advance the mission, even with uncertain outcomes. This is often the biggest challenge for leaders: being willing to invest in something that is not guaranteed.
5. **Sacrifice Certainty for Experimentation**. Embrace the unknown and be willing to take risks, acknowledging that some experiments will fail but pave the way for breakthroughs. This may mean you won't get the validation you'd get if you stuck with the "tried and true."
6. **Sacrifice Comfort for Transparency.** Commit to open, honest communication and questioning even when it involves difficult truths that challenge the status quo, or the accepted conventional wisdom. Be willing to be challenged.
7. **Sacrifice Old Paradigms and Prepare for New Ways**. Let go of legacy practices or outdated business models that hinder progress toward the mission. Invest time in preparing for the inevitable oncoming changes.
8. **Sacrifice Personal Time for Collective Purpose**. Dedicate time to causes and initiatives beyond one's immediate responsibilities to contribute to broader impact. This is tricky. We're conditioned to "not bite off more than we can chew". But think about the implications if you just keep "chewing" and don't ever do take steps to move beyond your current status quo.
9. **Sacrifice Stability for Agility**. Accept the discomfort of rapid change and adaptability as necessary for responding to dynamic challenges. Storming and norming can feel chaotic. But sometimes it's necessary in order to make traction toward your mission.
10. **Sacrifice Complacency for Responsibility**. Move beyond "good enough" and take ownership of driving meaningful change, even in the face of inertia or opposition. Think about where you're "staying in the pocket" vs pushing yourself and taking on stretch goals that make real progress toward the mission.
By embodying these sacrifices, individuals and organizations align their actions with their aspirations, ensuring that their mission statements are not just lofty ideals but living commitments to create a better world.
### Summary: Character vs Charades
The ability to achieve meaningful impact, whether as individuals or organizations, hinges on a willingness to make sacrifices. Every mission requires you to choose:
- what to give up,
- what to defer, or
- what to de-prioritize.
Without sacrifice, a mission is merely a statement with no realistic path to success. True power lies in the commitment to do whatever it takes, for as long as it takes, though preparation, execution, and crucial decision-making. If actions are ultimately driven by risk-averse hedging, this will impact the character of the company, and its culture will be little more than a set of charades.
History shows us that every meaningful mission has required significant sacrifices. The question for us here at the beginning of 2025 is: What are we individually ready to sacrifice to achieve our goals? And what are we collectively ready to sacrifice to achieve our mission?
---
Photo by [Charles Etoroma](https://unsplash.com/@charlesetoroma?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Change Leadership Learning Series: Addressing issues related to *uneven accountability*
*Continuing the* [*S3T Change Leadership Learning Series*](https://www.s3t.org/change-leadership-learning-series/)*, this week we are learning how to address a common flaw in organizational cultures.*
If you are involved in projects that matter, you and your team probably spend a lot of time worrying about and dealing with *dependencies*. Simply put, a dependency is when one group needs something from another group.
Drama involving dependencies is a symptom of uneven accountability: one group feels the full heat of accountability for an outcome but is forced to rely on/wait for another group that doesn't feel the heat. This practical guide will help you resolve this challenge and inspire your organization to structure for more even accountability.
### ☂️Click here to access your learning segment for this week: [Addressing issues related to uneven accountability](https://www.s3t.org/disabling-accountability-shields/)
---
## 🧭 Additional Resources for Change Leaders
### 🗺️ S3T Panoramas
S3T Panoramas help you maintain a perspective of the key shifts occuring in our world today. As new developments unfold the Panoramas are updated.
- [Health](https://www.s3t.org/panorama-health/)
- [Macro](https://www.s3t.org/panorama-macro/)
- [Innovation](https://www.s3t.org/panorama-innovation/)
- [Habitat](https://www.s3t.org/panorama-habitat/)
- [Energy](https://www.s3t.org/panorama-energy/)
- [More info about S3T Panoramas](https://www.s3t.org/panoramas-about/)
### *📗*S3T Playbooks
[S3T Playbooks](https://www.s3t.org/playbooks/) give you proven practical guidance for handling some of the more challenging aspects of change leadership.
S3T Playbooks are part of the exclusive Premium Content for S3T Full Access Memberships. To get your Full Access, click the Subscribe button and select the Full Access option.
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*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
❤️ [Click here to leave a tip](https://www.s3t.org/#/portal/support) if you'd like to help others learn about change leadership. Tips help make it possible to provide extended free trials for worthy recipients who currently lack the ability to pay for S3T learning resources.
---
##
### Dec 27 - Christmas Edition - GPT Party talk, Tripling the economy, Conflict resolution, Reflections...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/dec-27-christmas-edition-gpt-party-talk-tripling-the-economy-conflict-resolution-reflections/
Last updated: 2024-12-27T06:28:38.000Z
S3T Dec 27, 2024
0:00
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*Click the player above to listen to this edition of S3T! Or* [*listen on Spotify*](https://creators.spotify.com/pod/show/gets3t/episodes/Dec-27---Christmas-Edition---GPT-Party-talk--Tripling-the-economy-e2spdvo?ref=s3t.org)*.*
### In this Edition of S3T:
- 🎉 **Holiday Talk: AI as a Daily Essential**
At year-end, it’s clear that AI has become a daily tool - no, *instrument*, for people across industries, integrated into workflows like marketing, cloud engineering, and even behavioral health.
- 🚀 **AI Learning Opportunities**
Top free courses (from Harvard, Coursera, and more) are helping people upskill in AI, including prompt engineering, ethical AI, and operationalizing large language models.
- 🌱 **Economic Potential: 3x Growth Opportunity**
Financial hyper-concentration is limiting the US economy, which could grow from $153T to $492T. The average American's retirement savings fall far short of goals, revealing systemic inefficiencies impacting economic growth.
- 🔧 **Conflict Resolution Framework**
The S3T Change Leadership Learning Series offers a 6-step framework to resolve 90% of conflicts, including resistance to change, empowering leaders to drive effective organizational transformation.
- 🏄 **The Eddie Aikau Invitational**
Landon McNamara triumphed at the legendary Eddie Aikau Big Wave Invitational, a rare event celebrating courage and skill in surfing waves over 40 feet high—a tribute to Eddie Aikau’s inspiring legacy, summed up in the iconic phrase, "Eddie would go."
- 🌟 **Reflection on 2024's Impact**
Celebrating collective efforts this year: driving tech innovation, improving emergency care, fostering political dialogue, supporting community well-being, and designing ethical AI—all advancing a healthier, wealthier world.
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
---
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## 🎉 Holiday Talk: Merry Christmas and a GPT New Year
Its been great catching up with friends and colleagues at parties and get togethers here at the end of 2024\. One of the big aha moments - while having way too much fun - was just how completely people across different industries have absorbed AI into their daily life and work patterns.
What I picked up spans behavioral health, marketing, cloud engineering, even religious discussions (no kidding!). Phrases I hear:
- "I'm going to ask (insert favorite LLM)"
- "Its part of our framework for marketing messages"
- "Its baked into our SDLC now"
**Feels like we've crossed a threshold** \- like when humans learned about taking vitamins, or using calculators or spreadsheets for the first time. Generative AI has something in common with these earlier breakthroughs: they spawned new human skillsets and behaviors.
### New human skillsets emerging
Most of us see generative AI as simply humans requesting and getting specific strings of text that - in the known history of human communication - seemed most frequently relevant to a given question or topic.
It's seen as a way to get unstuck - a way to get working faster: to find the turns of phrase, the fresh angles that our foggy worried brains haven't thought of, or would take while to come up with. Accelerated brainstorming to find wording that resonates, or better articulates and explains.
We then have to check to make sure it's appropriate, make corrections and then iterate and assemble the final product.
But there's more. **This is an interaction skill**...learning how to leverage and interact with a capability. Learning how to have more productive dialogue with that capability - credit to [Conor Grennan](https://www.linkedin.com/in/conorgrennan/?ref=s3t.org) for the phrase "productive dialogue."
What is really interesting to me is how the people using it the most don't view it as a crutch, or something they delegate work to.
To their thinking, the risk is not in using it too much, but in *not using it enough* (ie not investing sufficient time to fully develop the skills). In other words - I wonder if there is a subtle but significant shift in how humans view and interact with AI: Not so much a tool, but an *instrument*.
### AI is not a tool, its an *instrument*...
A tool involves direct manipulation or force. An instrument is more complex, has the potential to perform differently based on changes in technique, tuning or configuration, and requires more specialized knowledge to operate for optimal results.
As humanity progressed from paper notation to calculators, then spreadsheets, and more recently Python powered analytic notebooks, we didn't stop using math, we used it even more. In the case of Generative AI tools what is the underlying skillset that we'll use even more? Probably it's this interactive collaboration - learning how to use AI as an instrument. This is a subtle but crucial shift. This is not about clicking or tapping or pushing buttons. This is about interacting.
### Consider the differences:
**AI as a *Tool*:**
- **Traditional view:** AI is seen as a means to an end, automating tasks, providing information, or generating content based on specific inputs.
- **Limited interaction:** The user primarily directs the AI with clear commands or prompts, receiving a relatively straightforward output.
- **Focus on efficiency:** The emphasis is on getting the job done quickly and effectively, with less emphasis on the process or interaction itself.
**AI as an *Instrument*:**
- **Emerging perspective:** AI is viewed as a partner in a dynamic process, where dialogue and iterative refinement are key to achieving desired results.
- **Interactive and collaborative:** The user engages in a back-and-forth with the AI, providing feedback, adjusting parameters, and exploring different possibilities.
- **Focus on exploration and discovery:** The emphasis is on leveraging AI's capabilities to enhance human creativity, problem-solving, and understanding through a collaborative process.
**Why the "Instrument" mindset is increasingly relevant:**
- **Complex tasks:** Many of today's AI applications involve complex tasks that require specialized or nuanced understanding and iterative refinement. Refinement in turn may require additional research, creative writing, or other activities like strategic planning. Think iterative collaboration.
- **Personalized experiences:** AI is increasingly used to create personalized experiences, requiring ongoing dialogue and feedback to tailor outputs to individual needs and preferences. Fine tuning is key to ensuring those experiences are authentic and on target.
- **Enhanced human capabilities:** By engaging in a productive dialogue with AI, users can augment their own cognitive abilities, gaining new insights and perspectives - or at least a wider range of options to consider.
In essence, when we use AI as an instrument, we're not just using it to get a specific answer or output. We're using it to engage in a collaborative process of exploration, discovery, and creation. This shift towards an "instrumental" approach to AI usage is transforming how we learn, work, and interact with technology.
### Apply this shift in your own work - top free online courses on AI
If you’re trying to get up to speed here are 7 top online courses to boost your AI skills and earnings potential:
- Harvard: [Intro to AI with Python](https://www.edx.org/learn/artificial-intelligence/harvard-university-cs50-s-introduction-to-artificial-intelligence-with-python?ref=s3t.org)
- Harvard: [AI applications and prompt engineering](https://www.edx.org/learn/computer-programming/edx-ai-applications-and-prompt-engineering?ref=s3t.org)
- Microsoft: [AI for Beginners](https://microsoft.github.io/AI-For-Beginners/?ref=s3t.org)
- Coursera: [Prompt Engineering](https://www.coursera.org/learn/prompt-engineering?ref=s3t.org)
- DeepLearning.AI: [Prompt Engineering for Developers](https://www.deeplearning.ai/short-courses/chatgpt-prompt-engineering-for-developers/?ref=s3t.org)
- DeepLearning.AI: [LLM Operations](https://www.deeplearning.ai/short-courses/llmops/?ref=s3t.org)
- UC Davis: [Big Data and AI Ethics](https://www.coursera.org/learn/big-data-ai-ethics?ref=s3t.org)
---
Photo by [Markus Spiske](https://unsplash.com/@markusspiske?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## 🌱 S3T Executive Briefing: Why our economy could be 3x bigger
The average American believes they will [need 1.46M to retire comfortably, up from 951K in 2020](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/retirement-savings-how-much-americans-need-1-46-million/?ref=s3t.org), but the [actual 2024 average amount is $88,400](https://news.northwesternmutual.com/2024-04-02-Americans-Believe-They-Will-Need-1-46-Million-to-Retire-Comfortably-According-to-Northwestern-Mutual-2024-Planning-Progress-Study?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=Meanwhile%2C%20the%20average%20amount%20that,peak%20of%20%2498%2C800%20in%202021.). Few will hit their goal. [Only 3.2% of retirees have over $1M](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/guess-percent-people-actually-retire-193016661.html?ref=s3t.org) in their retirement accounts per the [Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF)](https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/scfindex.htm).
**Where does all that lost future financial security end up?** And how that impacting the size of our economy? Nutshell: Financial hyper-concentration is costing the US economy more than we realize: Our economy could be 3x bigger.
### Click here to read the S3T Briefing on US [Economic Growth Potential](https://www.s3t.org/economic-growth/) and learn why our $153T economy could be $492T.
###
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Photo by [charlesdeluvio](https://unsplash.com/@charlesdeluvio?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
# S3T Change Leadership Learning Series: Resolving Conflict
*Continuing our* [*Change Leadership Learning Series*](https://www.s3t.org/change-leadership-learning-series/)*, we're learning about Activating and Leading Change at the team or organizational level.*
Leading change at an organizational or macro level will require you to learn how to resolve conflicts. You will probably find that you can resolve probably 90% of conflicts - including conflicts involving resistance to change - by using this set of options.
### Click here to access [Resolving conflict](https://www.s3t.org/6-ways-to-resolve-conflicts/) \- a framework of 6 proven ways to resolve most conflicts including conflicts involving resistance to change.
###
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## 🏄 Nature Notes: The Bay Decides the Day
Congratulations to Landon McNamara for **winning the** [**Eddie Aikau Big Wave Invitational**](https://www.theeddieaikau.com/?ref=s3t.org) **at this past Sunday Dec 22 at Waimea Bay on Oahu's North Shore this past week!** This marks the 11th Eddie in the last 40yrs because it only happens when the faces of the waves are consistently 40 feet or higher. Highlights in the Rip Curl recap above.
Named for the Eddie Aikau, the 1st lifeguard of Waimea Bay who saved over 500 people in his career - going out into huge waves when known one else dared. His legacy gave rise to the now popular inspirational phrase **"Eddie would go."**
[The 2024-2025 Eddie Aikau Big Wave InvitationalThe biggest surfing event in the world returns this year for the 2024-2025 Season. Join us at Waimea Bay in Haleiwa, HI for The Eddie](https://www.theeddieaikau.com/?ref=s3t.org#OurHistory)
---
Photo by [Sam Jotham Sutharson](https://unsplash.com/@jothamsutharson?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## 🙏What you did: Reflecting on 2024
Thinking back on the year, it has been inspiring to see **your initiatives and work this year across so many different fronts.** Just a few examples that I know of:
- Influenced employers to change their Return to Work policies
- Investing and supporting startups building the next generation of finance
- Driving more human centered design for emerging tech
- Optimizing the process of care in emergency departments
- Advancing mobility rights for people who depend on wheelchairs
- Volunteering and supporting community mental health organizations
- Helping young adults advance their careers
- Providing food and resources for homeless
- Designing more intelligent safeguards for ethical and effective AI
- Boosting dialogue across political divides
- Modernizing data enterprises
There are more, but the common thread through all of these is that pattern of seeing something that needs to be changed and improved, and taking a thoughtful approach to driving intentional beneficial innovation. Collectively this work helps contribute to a healthier wealthier world - benefits for all, not just a privileged few. **You are making a difference.**
Thank you for what you worked toward and accomplished this year, and may you have continued and expanded success in 2025! This is so motivating to me, to provide even more value and resources to equip and enable your efforts in the coming year thru the S3T platform. Please don't hesitate to connect and let me know if I can help support your success.
*Thank you again, and best wishes for an impactful 2025,*
Ralph
P.S Share this newsletter with someone and encourage them to join us!
### 🎄Dec 20 - Recession, Crypto Devs, BTCs Arc, Digital health 2.0, Best jobs
URL: https://www.s3t.org/dec-20-2/
Last updated: 2024-12-20T06:28:53.000Z
S3T Podcast Dec 20 2024
0:00
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*Click the player above to listen to this edition of S3T! You can also* [*listen on Spotify*](https://creators.spotify.com/pod/show/gets3t/episodes/Dec-20-Building-Brighter-Futures-Talent--Tech--and-Transformations-for-Tomorrow-e2si7k5?ref=s3t.org)*.*
### In this Edition of S3T:
1. 📉 **Economic Contradictions**: Despite the Fed's recent rate cut and a seemingly strong macro-economy, underlying factors like unsustainable corporate profit rates and rising unemployment suggest a potential recession. Jonah Goldberg and Albert Edwards offer valuable perspectives.
2. 💻 **Crypto Developer Insights**: Electric Capital's annual report highlights \~24,000 active crypto developers worldwide, with Ethereum leading in developer activity. Crypto developers generate significantly more value per capita compared to traditional software developers.
3. ⚛️ **Quantum Computing Risks**: Google's quantum breakthroughs raise concerns about encryption vulnerabilities. Bitcoin's developer community faces pressure to implement quantum-resistant solutions, underscoring broader security industry challenges.
4. 🩺 **Digital Health 2.0B**: A new wave of AI-powered digital health startups is emerging, focusing on workflow efficiency, diagnostics, and mental health care, addressing a global issue projected to cost $6T by 2030.
5. 🔄 **Change Leadership Strategies**: The S3T Change Leadership Series explores organizational transformation, emphasizing conflict resolution, accountability, and cultivating ownership mindsets in teams and partners.
6. 🪜 **Career Development Resources**: Top workplace lists from Fortune, Forbes, and Glassdoor, along with a unique layoff recovery toolkit, provide tools for navigating career transitions and finding opportunities in uncertain times.
7. 🧠🚀 **The 2 Kinds of Talent**: Every successful team needs those who want to *KNOW* (focus on understanding and analysis) and those who want to *GO* (focus on action and execution). Recognizing and leveraging this balance transforms conflict into collaboration, empowering diverse talents to create shared success stories.
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
❤️ [Click here to leave a tip](https://www.s3t.org/#/portal/support) if you'd like to help others learn about change leadership. Tips help make it possible to provide extended free trials for worthy recipients who currently lack the ability to pay for S3T learning resources.
---
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## 🥧 US Economy: a pie that looks great, but tastes like a recession.
This week the Fed [cut interest rates by another quarter point](https://www.haver.com/articles/fomc-lowers-targeted-funds-rate-range-by-25-basis-points-lifts-rate-projections?ref=s3t.org), but signaled that there [won't be as many cuts next year](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/federal-reserve-fed-meeting-interest-rate-cut-decision-december-2024/?ref=s3t.org) \- another worrying sign of inflation. [Mortgage rates jumped](https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-12182024?ref=s3t.org) and markets [fell sharply](https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/federal-reserve-interest-rate-decision-live-12-18-2024?ref=s3t.org) before stabilizing. Thursday [another government shutdown circus erupted](https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/12/19/congress/government-shutdown-schumer-house-00195492?ref=s3t.org) on Capitol Hill.ab
Jonah Goldberg [offers a review at the US economy's progression](https://thedispatch.com/article/the-economy-doesnt-care-who-is-president/?ref=s3t.org) with a valuable note about the difference between a macro-economy vs. a micro-economy. This pairs nicely with the bearish views from Albert Edwards who sees the [US corporate profit rates as unsustainable](https://www.ft.com/content/cc39d35f-bbf7-4acd-ba94-44998c292f5c?ref=s3t.org), derived from "greedflation" rather than a healthy economy, noting that US unemployment moved above its 3 year average (sign of a recession). **46% of shoppers say** [**debt will make them spend less this Christmas**](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/12/only-16percent-of-holiday-shoppers-plan-to-spend-more-this-season-because-of-inflation-cnbc-survey-shows.html?ref=s3t.org)**.**
The top of this pie looks like the best economy in the world. The filling tastes like a recession.
**Get informed so you can find your opportunities and path forward**: [S3T-Curated list of top open sources of economic data & insights](https://www.s3t.org/signals/) \- top data, analysis & trends to build your own independent forward looking perspective.
---
## Electric Capital Annual Crypto Developer Report
Each year Electric Capital analyzes the crypto developer community and the ecosystems they are focused on. Takeaways from this years [hot off the press report](https://www.developerreport.com/?ref=s3t.org):
- The US and India lead the world in numbers of crypto developers:
[Courtesy of Electric Capital](https://www.developerreport.com/?ref=s3t.org)
- The total crypto developer community is still relatively small (about 24,000 monthly active developers). For comparison, [Python has \~11 million developers, Java has 9 million](https://www.future-processing.com/blog/how-many-software-developers-are-there-in-the-world/?ref=s3t.org). CodeNinja estimates there are [26.3 million software developers in the world](https://www.s3t.org/dec-13-2/).
- If you take the current crypto market cap ([\~3T per Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/digital-assets/crypto-prices/?sh=7884dcc72478&ref=s3t.org)) and divide it by the number of crypto developers (24K per [Electric Capital](https://www.developerreport.com/?ref=s3t.org)), it suggests that each developer is enabling $125M in value - a much higher ratio than traditional software: total software spending world wide [is estimated \~1 Trillion](https://www.statista.com/statistics/203428/total-enterprise-software-revenue-forecast/?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=Enterprise%20software%20total%20worldwide%20expenditure%202009%2D2024&text=In%202023%2C%20IT%20spending%20on,dedicated%20Facts%20and%20Figures%20page.). Divide that by 26 million developers = $38,000 value contribution per developer. Acknowledging that the average IT software project doesn't have the hype and investor euphoria that Bitcoin has, this is still a pretty wide variance.
- But **the crypto industry continues to attract developers:**
[Courtesy of Electric Capital](https://www.developerreport.com/?ref=s3t.org)
- The Ethereum ecosystem continues to have the biggest collection of active developers - about 5600 - followed by Solana (and the SVM Stack), Polka Dot, Cosmos and Bitcoin. ([See LearnEVM](https://learnevm.com/chapters/evm/stack?ref=s3t.org) for a good explainer and developer on ramp for the Ethereum ecosystem).
Some tips for using this report:
- The rankings by active developer is an interesting alternative to the [Market Cap view of Crypto assets](https://www.s3t.org/cmc/).
It can be helpful to notice the Crypto Ecosystems with **rising numbers of full time developers.** This in some cases can be a signal of future growth and adoption.
Photo by [Google DeepMind](https://unsplash.com/@googledeepmind?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## More Quantum Worries
*Quantum computing will de-stabilize the relatively static set of security standards we build on top of.*
This week BlackRock released a [3 minute educational video about Bitcoin](https://x.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1869125598549061661?ref=s3t.org).
> JUST IN: BlackRock releases 3 minute educational video explaining what [#Bitcoin](https://twitter.com/hashtag/Bitcoin?src=hash&ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org) is. [pic.twitter.com/EjqBbV0GRn](https://t.co/EjqBbV0GRn?ref=s3t.org)
>
> — Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) [December 17, 2024](https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1869125598549061661?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org)
While some [heralded this as a "paradigm shift"](https://bitcoinmagazine.com/takes/blackrocks-new-bitcoin-ad-is-a-monumental-paradigm-shift?ref=s3t.org), more worries surfaced this week in the wake of the Google Willow quantum breakthrough that seems to place commercially viable quantum computing a lot closer than originally thought. Some of the headlines (which may/may not be true) claim Bitcoin would need significant downtime (some say [300 days,](https://fortune.com/2024/12/17/bitcoin-downtime-update-quantum-computing-attack-study/?ref=s3t.org) some [say 76](https://www.dlnews.com/articles/defi/quantum-computers-5-years-from-breaking-bitcoin/?ref=s3t.org)) to implement an upgrade to make it quantum resistant.
Practical near term tips:
- If you hold your own crypto in a wallet, make sure it is a modern wallet rather than the old Pay-To-Public-Key (PTPK) wallets created before 2012\. (You would have to be a rare person to have a wallet made before 2012).
- Watch the Bitcoin developer community and its sponsors (more about this below). To date they have relied on a fairly stable encryption standard that had no credible threat. As that changes, the Bitcoin developer community (or some group) will need serious funding and focus to enable new encryption and/or other protective measures.
My take: this will be at some point a threat to Bitcoin, *but it will also be a threat to a lot of other aspects of our daily life that rely on secure encryption*. **The security industry is about to get even more interesting (and likely require even greater levels of funding and focus).**
### What's Next for InfoSec
Expect a new kind of arms race between offenders vs defenders:
- Offenders: malicious actors armed with AI powered quantum compute who leverage new and accelerating capabilities to defeat encryption
- Defenders: encryption and other security specialists racing to create and maintain protective moats against an accelerating array of intelligent quantum security threats...did we just coin a new phrase (IQST)? 😸
It will be interesting to see how the Bitcoin developer community (about 1,200 individuals [per Electric Capital](https://www.developerreport.com/?ref=s3t.org)) mobilizes to address this issue. Will they develop a solution specific to Bitcoin or will they collaborate with a broader industry consortium that focuses on the quantum threat to encryption? I think it will have to be the latter owing to their size and funding levels.
Bitcoin evolves via [Bitcoin Improvement Proposals BIPs](https://github.com/bitcoin/bips?ref=s3t.org). The Bitcoin community is not controlled by any one person or group, and it does not have a visible leader like Ethereum's Vitalik Buterin.
I recall industry players voicing frustration back in the 2021 timeframe with the Ethereum community's seemingly slow pace compared to some of the faster moving groups. Yet now, on the other side of several major upgrades, Ethereum enjoys a level of trust that many other dev communities don't. The smaller Bitcoin developer community may face a similar test in the years ahead.
The Bitcoin developer community is a decentralized group of volunteers who manage and maintain "Bitcoin Core" the foundational software that runs the Bitcoin blockchain - [good explainer here](https://cointelegraph.com/learn/articles/bitcoin-core-explained?ref=s3t.org). Funding and sponsorship [come from a handful of companies](https://www.doubloin.com/learn/who-pays-bitcoin-developers?ref=s3t.org) including Coinbase, Square Crypto and Gemini.
### The long arc for Bitcoin
The last Bitcoin is expected to be mined [115 years from now, around 2140](https://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/10486/when-will-the-last-bitcoin-be-mined?ref=s3t.org). Why is that significant? At that point, one of Bitcoin's key stakeholders - Miners - will be out of business (unless the Bitcoin community decides to [lift the 21 million cap programmed into Bitcoin's software](https://decrypt.co/298022/blackrock-bitcoin-video-ad-bitcoiners-hate-it?ref=s3t.org)).
Consider the formidable powers quantum computing will possess at that time (and well before). Barring a few wildcard events there could be a mass divesting of Bitcoin in anticipation of a showdown between quantum vs the loose-knit Bitcoin developer community. Great movie, not so great gamble. Cue the predictive timelines of Bitcoin's rise to x million and then decline to zero? Maybe.
Some wildcard events that could change the course of things, listed in order of likelihood (in my thinking):
- An industry consortium develops approaches that limit quantum computings ability to break encryption.
- The Bitcoin developer community itself develops cryptography or other measures (perhaps boosted by AI?) that allows Bitcoin to stay ahead of quantum's code-cracking abilities.
- A larger entity (industry group or US government?) decides to take a more formal role in managing the Bitcoin network, and mobilizes a larger more formal software team that builds in a new round of protections against quantum threats.
- A derivative or successor to Bitcoin is created. One potential candidate: the [Quantum Resistant Ledger (QRL)](https://docs.theqrl.org/what-is-qrl/?ref=s3t.org)
Nothing is forever. But the end rarely comes when investors expect.
## Digital Health is back - and different
A new cohort of emerging digital health companies offer a glimpse into the ways **AI in healthcare will shift from "from powering point solutions to becoming an essential part of healthcare delivery for patients.**"
Workflow efficiency is a big theme as well as diagnostics and virtual care delivery for a range of needs including mental health - a key investment theme given that mental health issues are on track to [cost the world economy 6T by 2030](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X%2820%2930432-0/fulltext?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=In%20total%2C%20poor%20mental%20health,to%20%246%20trillion%20by%202030.).
See CBInsights top 50 infographic below and [full report here](https://www.cbinsights.com/research/report/digital-health-startups-redefining-healthcare-2024?ref=s3t.org).
Courtesy of [CBInsights Digital Health 50](https://www.cbinsights.com/research/report/digital-health-startups-redefining-healthcare-2024/?ref=s3t.org)
---
##
Photo by [Product School](https://unsplash.com/@productschool?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Activating Change Leadership at the Organizational Level
Continuing our S3T [Change Leadership Learning Series](https://www.s3t.org/change-leadership-learning-series/), this week we move on to learning about change leadership *at the team and organizational level*.
How do you inspire and lead change in your company?
You'll have to apply the lessons you learned in previous weeks about activating change leadership on a personal level. But now you're going to add a new layer of skills and tools, and learn how to use them. Here's a preview:
- [Know talent vs go talent](https://www.s3t.org/know-talent-go-talent/) \- harnessing the 2 kinds of talent needed to successfully drive change.
- [Resolving conflict](https://www.s3t.org/6-ways-to-resolve-conflicts/) \- a framework of 6 proven ways to resolve most conflicts including conflicts involving resistance to change.
- [Evenly distributed accountability](https://www.s3t.org/disabling-accountability-shields/) \- Innovation and transformation initiatives are often challenged by *uneven accountability*: one part of the team feels a high degree of ownership and accountability, but must rely on other teams that seem to not.
- [How to cultivate an ownership mindset in vendors and partners](https://www.s3t.org/how-to-cultivate-an-owership-mindset-in-vendors-and-partners/) \- Change Leaders gain an edge by cultivating an ownership mindset in the vendors and partners they work with.
### Ready to go through this week's lesson? Click here to learn the difference between [Know talent vs Go talent](https://www.s3t.org/know-talent-go-talent/), why you need them both, and how to harness both kinds to successfully drive change.
---
Photo by [Miquel Parera](https://unsplash.com/@miquel%5Fparera%5Fmila?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## **Self Development**
### Taking stock of your career? Want to find a better place to work?
Here are some of the top lists of best companies to work for:
- [Seramount 100 Best Companies for Multi-Cultural Women](https://seramount.com/best-companies/2024-best-companies-for-multicultural-women-winners/?ref=s3t.org) (Seramount is former publisher of Working Mother magazine)
- [Fortune Magazine's Top 100 Best Places to Work](https://www.greatplacetowork.com/best-workplaces/100-best/2024?ref=s3t.org)
- [Forbes Magazine "World's Best Employers" List](https://www.forbes.com/lists/worlds-best-employers/?ref=s3t.org)
- [Glassdoor Best Places To Work](https://www.glassdoor.com/Award/Best-Places-to-Work-LST%5FKQ0,19.htm?ref=s3t.org) \- based on Glassdoor ratings
### [Turning a Layoff into a Level Up: The Essential Layoff Recovery Kit](https://www.s3t.org/layoffs/)
This free toolkit is designed to help you navigate this transition with confidence, giving you practical tools to help you set a strong positive mindset, conduct a highly effective job search, and be 110% ready for what’s next.
There are a lot of tips out there for finding a new job. What you're going to learn here is unique: **You're going to learn how to share your *past* success stories in a way that excites people about working with you to create *future* success stories.**
### ⌛[How to protect your time and focus in an uncertain economy - a practical tip and invitation.](https://www.s3t.org/protect-your-time/)
*In the next 6 months your company and customers will face tough decisions. You want to be on the right side of those decisions when they happen. This practical choice will tilt the odds in your favor.*
---
**🎄Hope you are all set for a nice Holiday! Thank for reading and sharing S3T and thank you for what you do!** Learning and applying change leadership principles in your work makes a difference. Happy Holidays!
Ralph
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### Quantum noise, AI Risks, EU Innovation, Healthcare Reimagined, GenAI Video physics
URL: https://www.s3t.org/dec-13-2/
Last updated: 2024-12-13T06:28:11.000Z
S3T Podcast Dec 13 2024
0:00
/1511.3926530612246
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*Click the player above to listen to this edition of S3T! You can also* [*listen on Spotify*](https://creators.spotify.com/pod/show/gets3t/episodes/Quantum-noise--AI-Risks--EU-Innovation--Healthcare--GenAI-Video-e2s7nvs?ref=s3t.org)*.*
### In this Edition of S3T:
1. 🔓 **Healthcare Change Leadership**: A new S3T learning path empowers leaders to reimagine healthcare systems as simpler, more affordable, and effective by challenging long-standing assumptions and exploring transformative innovations.
2. 🌍 **EU Innovation Challenges**: Insights into the struggles of high-tech EU startups like Northvolt and the need for reinvention, as illustrated by Janan Ganesh's article on Musk's ideas for government reform. Positive highlights include Norway’s Vipps (an Apple Pay alternative) and Aqemia’s GenAI drug discovery.
3. ⚛️ **Quantum Computing Breakthrough**: Google’s "Willow" quantum chip showcases error correction success, performing tasks infeasible for supercomputers. The leap towards practical quantum computing brings both innovation potential and security risks, including threats to current cryptographic systems.
4. 🤖 **AI’s Dual Impact**: AI reduces stillbirths and cancer fatalities but also fuels realistic scams. Evgeny Morozov critiques AI’s potential to entrench societal power imbalances while tools like Chatbot Arena and AIluminate advance testing and governance.
5. 🎥 **Generative AI Video Struggles**: OpenAI's "Sora" video generator shows promise but struggles with physics and realism. Marques Brownlee highlights its flaws with humor, featuring a Santa vs. Frosty combat video.
6. 🚨 **AI and Geopolitical Tensions**: Commentary surfaces on Elon Musk’s influence in AI and ties to the U.S. administration, reflecting the growing complexities of AI politics and leadership dynamics.
7. 🧘 **Change Leadership Self-Care**: S3T’s 201-level series emphasizes self-care and team resilience as crucial for change leaders. Practical resources support leaders in managing personal well-being while driving transformative change.
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
❤️ [Click here to leave a tip](https://www.s3t.org/#/portal/support) if you'd like to help others learn about change leadership. Tips help make it possible to provide extended free trials for worthy recipients who currently lack the ability to pay for S3T learning resources.
---
## ⚕️United CEO death exposes American's seething anger over healthcare coverage denials and delays
While the flood of hateful outrage on social media - and more recently [Wanted Posters](https://abcnews.go.com/US/executive-hit-lists-wanted-posters-nypd-warns-threats/story?id=116662519&ref=s3t.org) \- may seem easy to discredit, some of the more measured responses [like this TikTok dialogue by Paster Paul Drees](https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTYH5o8Bx/?ref=s3t.org) could have **resonance sufficient to compel significant changes in the policies that govern how the US funds and manages healthcare.**
Some are likening this to the public outrage against banking (remember Occupy Wall St) and the outrage in the wake of George Floyd’s killing - in all cases, rage fueled by a sense of helplessness.
Few deny that changes and improvements are needed in economic equality generally and healthcare specifically. Finding constructive paths forward seems challenging however. And it won’t help to keep touting economic averages (like this week’s “[new record high in household wealth](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-household-wealth-climbs-record-171411627.html?guccounter=1&guce%5Freferrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce%5Freferrer%5Fsig=AQAAAAc28SxylGsuPaeKL5VvX37v8zhQRz8CFpSpOkLNs4YFo3vhGXFvME5yezaF-ytPUzFqEJl2-HASYJOwLfggkYYLqSKzW4boElrm7SoULksvVwrj0vZV-vVM1mVyt8UP2trGVsOUwHqJvtozL2JJ%5FbkorqS8ngLdwu0pyjAfIH-1&ref=s3t.org)!”) that conceal the financial pain felt by families and individuals across the US.
Here are a couple of starting point considerations specific to healthcare:
### #1 Reconsider Moral Hazard
US healthcare is tends to operate on an assumption that patients "[consume less healthcare when they are required to pay more for it out of pocket](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6128379/?ref=s3t.org)." There are serious flaws in this line of thinking which is rooted in the *18th-century notion of moral hazard.* [**This S3T Explainer shows how to rethink Moral Hazard logic in healthcare.**](https://www.s3t.org/moral-hazard/)
### #2 Rethink how healthcare needs to work
A very different kind of healthcare system - simpler, more affordable, more cost-effective, and more functional - is very possible. But it requires a willingness to swap out some long-standing assumptions and mental models held in US healthcare. Start with this **🔓Special Unlocked S3T Learning Feature:** [**Learning Path for Healthcare Change Leaders.**](https://www.s3t.org/learning-path-for-healthcare-leaders/)This learning path for healthcare change leaders provides a reading list designed for leaders who want to give themselves a foundation for rethinking how healthcare could and should work.
For insights on making the general economy support more than the upper 1% see [The Evolution of Economics](https://www.s3t.org/the-evolution-of-economics/).
---
## 🇪🇺 EU Innovation & Entrepreneurial Health
The [failure of Northvolt battery](https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/who-has-the-most-to-lose-from-northvolts-failure?ref=s3t.org) \- Europes best and brightest high tech green energy startup - raises questions about the [EU's plan for innovation and entrepreneurialism](https://research-and-innovation.ec.europa.eu/document/download/9224c3b4-f529-4b48-b21b-879c442002a2%5Fen?filename=ec%5Frtd%5Fhe-investing-to-shape-our-future.pdf&ref=s3t.org).
Janan Ganesh's fun read "[Musk is the right man on the wrong continent](https://www.ft.com/content/0c8207d7-dc08-42eb-a4dc-7402ae0f7385?ref=s3t.org)" digs into the economics that plague Britain but also the EU in general, and argues that Musk's ideas about reinventing government may be more urgently needed in the UK than in the US. (The article also illustrates the envy the rest of the world feels regarding the strength of the US economic data).
Some positive notes - EU companies bucking the trend:
- [Norway launches Vipps an alternative to Apple Pay](https://www.macrumors.com/2024/12/09/vipps-mobilepay-first-iphone-apple-pay-alternative/?ref=s3t.org) \- and yes it works on iPhones!
- Aqemia is a [French startup using GenAI to find new drugs](https://techcrunch.com/2024/12/10/aqemia-raises-38m-to-find-new-drugs-by-meshing-theoretical-physics-with-genai/?ref=s3t.org)
---
## Quantum looms closer
[Google announces a new Quantum Chip with error correction breakthrough](https://www.hpcwire.com/2024/12/09/google-debuts-new-quantum-chip-error-correction-breakthrough-and-roadmap-details/?ref=s3t.org) and roadmap. Willow - Google's latest quantum chip - ran a benchmark test in five minutes that would have taken 10 septillion years on Frontier, the world's fastest supercomputer.
Why this matters: [Error correction is an important problem to solve for quantum compute](https://physics.aps.org/articles/v17/176?ref=s3t.org): fragile quantum states introduce errors ("quantum noise") which until now have tended to *only increase* when attempts were made to correct them. Google's breakthrough reverses this phenomenon and puts quantum computing on track for **real world uses as early as 2030.**
The advent of business- or science-ready quantum computing could unleash a new wave of innovation, **but also poses unprecedented risks to information security and - *potentially* \- crypto assets**. Quantum computers that operate without succumbing to quantum noise could use [Shor's algorithm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shor%27s%5Falgorithm?ref=s3t.org) to break public-key cryptography methods currently considered secure against classical computing attacks.
Related: [Chicago wants to be the Silicon Valley of Quantum Computing](https://www.wsj.com/articles/chicago-wants-to-build-the-silicon-valley-of-quantum-computing-8da25981?st=SaW572&reflink=desktopwebshare%5Fpermalink&ref=s3t.org)
---
## Use of AI
[AI Fetal Monitoring Tool reduces stillbirths](https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2024/dec/06/how-ai-monitoring-is-cutting-stillbirths-and-neonatal-deaths-in-a-clinic-in-malawi?ref=s3t.org) and neonatal deaths by 82%, and [AI is detecting more breast cancer cases](https://gizmodo.com/ai-is-detecting-more-breast-cancer-cases-study-suggests-2000534894?ref=s3t.org).
AI generated content is [being used to create increasingly realistic scams](https://www.ft.com/content/577dff0d-b7a0-4bc3-a1b1-3ca828e5ba18?ref=s3t.org) \- as banks deny responsibility.
In the long read "[The AI We Deserve](https://www.bostonreview.net/forum/the-ai-we-deserve/?ref=s3t.org)" Evgeny Morozov digs into how we might "ensure that the agendas of the Efficiency Lobby don’t overpower those of the Humanity Lobby" and worries that of all the risks posed by AI, the "the ability of AI to run ideological interference for the prevailing order, whether bureaucracy in its early days or the market today, poses the greatest threat."
### AI Testing and Evaluation
[Chatbot Arena](https://lmarena.ai/?ref=s3t.org) allows users to blind test AI models [by posing questions to two anonymous AI models and rate which one is better](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/the-uc-berkeley-project-that-is-the-ai-industrys-obsession-bc68b3e3?ref=s3t.org).
[AIluminate is a new AI risk assessment benchmark tool](https://mlcommons.org/ailuminate/?ref=s3t.org) from [MLCommons](https://mlcommons.org/?ref=s3t.org), The tool uses a collection of 12,000 test prompts to measure an LLM's propensity to generate hazardous responses to inappropriate prompts from malicious or vulnerable users. This allows governance teams to test how an LLM responds to prompts that ask for instructions on criminal acts or self harm.
### Generative AI Video
[OpenAi Releases Sora](https://openai.com/index/sora-is-here/?ref=s3t.org) \- a Generative AI tool that generates videos in response to prompts. OpenAI is rolling it out slowly, [due to concerns about deepfakes](https://techcrunch.com/2024/12/09/openai-is-only-letting-some-sora-users-create-videos-of-real-people/?ref=s3t.org). In my tests, it can occasionally have moments of stunning realism, but I found it to be most effective at generating exercises in frustration. [Marques Brownlee shows how Sora struggles](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OY2x0TyKzIQ&ref=s3t.org) with object permanence and natural realistic movements because it seems to have limited ability to apply physics in its rendering.
On the plus side, he did get Sora to generate this Mortal Combat style fight between Santa and Frosty:
[See Marques Brownlee's SORA review for full video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OY2x0TyKzIQ&ref=s3t.org)
### The Rise of AI Mafias
[Interesting comments this week from OpenAI CFO](https://www.reuters.com/technology/openai-cfo-friar-says-she-trusts-musk-prioritize-national-interest-2024-12-11/?ref=s3t.org) regarding competitor Elon Musk's close ties to the new administration.
---
## Leading change is not easy. Establishing self-care as a norm both at the personal and team level is crucial.
We're continuing our [Change Leadership Learning Series](https://www.s3t.org/change-leadership-learning-series/) now in the 201 level where we are Learning and applying change leadership skills on personal, organizational and macro levels.
### Self care and team care must be top priorities for change leaders
Understanding and practicing the basics of self-care and resilience - and helping others do the same - can make a big difference.
This learning guide is not intended to serve as an exhaustive resource for mental and physical health, but rather to share a perspectives and resources that relate to scenarios frequently encountered by change leaders.
## ❤️Click here to access this week's Change Leadership 201 segment: [Taking care of yourself and others](https://www.s3t.org/takingcare/)
---
###
💡
****If you haven't yet gotten your Full Access subscription you can sign up quickly right now by clicking the Subscribe button and selecting the** ***Full Access** **option!**
### Use or Share these free S3T Resources:
###
🧮 [Personal Finance learning page](https://www.s3t.org/pf/)
Offers *3 valuable resources.* 1\. A Budget Planner to create a suggested monthly budget based on your income. 2\. A Budget Basics section to learn how to use your budget to build your financial security over time. 3\. A Recommended Reading section for further learning. **Perfect for helping a young adult or anyone learning how to managed their finances.**
### 🧰 [Layoff Recovery Toolkit](https://www.s3t.org/layoffs/)
This unique toolkit is designed to help you navigate a layoff with confidence, giving you practical tools to help you set a strong positive mindset, conduct a highly effective job search, and be 110% ready for what’s next. **Learn how to share your *past* success stories in a way that excites people about working with you to create *future* success stories.**
### **Also:** [Ebird is hiring](https://ebird.org/about/jobs/?ref=s3t.org) 🐦⬛
---
**Thank you for what you do!** Learning and applying change leadership principles in your work makes a difference - perhaps to many who will never be able to come back and thank you. So I thank you for your work and leadership. It means a lot.
Ralph
### Dec 6 - "Bitcoin 100k, AI Fails, XRP Healthcare, Privacy Wins, Finish Strong!"
URL: https://www.s3t.org/dec-6-bitcoin-100k-ai-fails-xrp-healthcare-privacy-wins-finish-strong/
Last updated: 2024-12-06T06:28:06.000Z
S3T Podcast Dec 6
0:00
/1495.0661224489795
1×
*Click the player above to listen to this edition of S3T! You can also* [*listen on Spotify*](https://creators.spotify.com/pod/show/gets3t/episodes/Dec-6---Bitcoin-100k--AI-Fails--XRP-Healthcare--Privacy-Wins--Finish-Strong-e2rticc?ref=s3t.org)*.*
### In this Edition of S3T:
### 🔗 **Crypto Roundup Highlights**
- 📈 *Bitcoin hits $100K!* Yet, the market isn’t lifting all assets; some face sharp declines as investor focus narrows.
- 🚀 *XRP surges 400%* and claims the #3 spot after ETF rumors confirmed by WisdomTree's SEC filing.
- 🩺 *XRP Healthcare emerges*, promising innovation in healthcare financials but facing questions about security, transparency, and practical applications like CVS discount cards.
### 🤖 **AI Insights & Challenges**
- 🛑 *AI stock correction warnings*—investors may be overestimating near-term gains, while Big Tech continues its long-term dominance play.
- 🌐 *Open-source AI risks*—Concerns arise about models trained on censored data, but some Chinese AI models remain unaffected.
- 🧠 *AI tricked in $47K challenge*—A human exploited loopholes in an AI agent, showcasing potential vulnerabilities in autonomous systems.
### 🔒 **Data & Privacy**
- 🛡️ *Tighter data protection proposed*—The CFPB and FTC crack down on the misuse of sensitive location data.
- 📣 *Ownership matters*—Advocacy for personal data rights gains momentum; use S3T’s templates to guide these crucial conversations.
### 📚 **S3T Resources & Tips**
- 🧮 *Personal Finance Learning Tools*—Budget planners and guides for building financial security.
- 🛠️ *Layoff Recovery Toolkit*—Practical tools for navigating layoffs and landing stronger opportunities.
- 📗 *S3T Playbooks*—Proven strategies for smarter annual planning and tackling “zombie projects.”
- 📆 *5 End-of-Year Tips*—Define success, stay focused, and finish 2024 strong with actionable tactics.
### 🛠️ **Leadership Learning Series**
- 🗓️ *Good planning habits*—Learn the 5 building blocks for setting intent, executing plans, and celebrating progress. Explore Change Leadership 201 now!
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
❤️ [Click here to leave a tip](https://www.s3t.org/#/portal/support) if you'd like to help others learn about change leadership. Tips help make it possible to provide extended free trials for worthy recipients who currently lack the ability to pay for S3T learning resources.
---
##
## Crypto Roundup: winners and losers heading in to 2025
###
⛵Crypto Market Cap 2024 in Review
Bitcoin hit 100K this week, but the rising tide is not raising all boats: the Q4 2024 bull market/positive sentiment in Crypto right now is having a selective effect as the crypto investor community appears to be abandoning some assets. Some very notable declines.
Visit the [Crypto Market Caps dashboard and analysis ](https://www.s3t.org/cmc/)to see which players moved up, down or stayed the same in 2024\.
To keep a given ranking or to stay within 1-3 positions of previous rank, assets typically had to double their market cap. This made assets with rising market caps all the more noteworthy.
### XRP moves into top 5 crypto assets with a 400% price rally
[XRP moved into the #3 spot](https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2024/12/02/ripple-suddenly-braced-for-an-xrp-etf-earthquake-after-price-explosion-to-rival-bitcoin-and-ethereum/?ref=s3t.org) behind BTC and ETH on rumors of an XRP ETF. The rumors were confirmed soon after - here is the [WisdomTree XRP Fund SEC filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2046791/000121465924019800/wtxrp112224s1.htm?ref=s3t.org) created Dec 2\. XRP is a blockchain ecosystem designed to support solutions built on top of it. For example [XRP Healthcare](https://xrphealthcare.ai/?ref=s3t.org) is a derivative that aspires to transform healthcare - more analysis below.
### XRP Healthcare: First Impressions
It's exciting to see another example of crypto ideation that reframes healthcare financials. The founders are right to [assert that a decentralized blockchain architecture could offer benefits to healthcare](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/defi-planet%5Fblockchain-xrphealthcare-blockchaininhealthcare-activity-7115018843277660161-8FlU?ref=s3t.org). The financial press has [taken note](https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2024/12/02/ripple-suddenly-braced-for-an-xrp-etf-earthquake-after-price-explosion-to-rival-bitcoin-and-ethereum/?ref=s3t.org). But like most emerging tech solutions, regulated healthcare organizations will need to conduct due diligence on a few factors in order to consider entrusting real world healthcare data and finances to this platform. Key points:
- XRP Healthcare is built on top of the XRP blockchain. Some - not all - worry that the XRP blockchain's consensus mechanism is vulnerable to attacks and may not be as secure as future workloads will require - especially for a regulated industry like healthcare. Risk averse healthcare organizations will consider whether this is a challenge for their specific security needs and risk tolerance.
- PR materials from the group frequently cite mergers and acquisitions in Africa, but little detail is available about what this means or how it connects to the stated mission. Some organizations may want to see more transparency about the players and transactions involved in order to understand any possible reputational or compliance risks, or any factors in play that could impact the financial stability of XRP Healthcare.
- Materials also cite a [downloadable discount card](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/amid-rising-costs-xrp-healthcare-prescription-savings-card-making-a-difference-at-68-000-pharmacies-across-america-a-game-changer-for-individuals-and-organizations-alike-302291868.html?ref=s3t.org) that will be honored at CVS and Walgreens. Healthcare organizations will want to understand how this works, and how it might conflict with or enhance other relationships or programs they offer their members.
---
## AI Worries & Warnings
###
AI Stock Pricing
[Vanguard warns of AI stock correction](https://www.ft.com/content/8b5c4611-0957-4bca-a6e9-ad608c865a64?ref=s3t.org) on fears investors are overestimating AI near term potential. This has been a recurring theme...warnings that profits won't materialize in the near to mid term, but soon after there is another round of higher valuations, investments and stock prices. So what's going on?
I think this is a great example of how Big Tech and Wall Street thinks differently:
- Wall Street focuses on short term **profits**: hit your quarterly targets, or else we'll dump your stock and sink your stock price.
- Big tech focuses on long term **position**: spend whatever it takes to achieve dominance: Become #1 or #2, then use that position to build pricing power, displace competitors, and drive outsized profits for the next 10 years.
That's been the Big Tech playbook for Search, Social Media and the Uberization of the service and hospitality industry. We can expect it will be used again in the AI industry.
### Open Source AI
Clement Delangue (Hugging Face) warns about the [unintended consequences of building on top of high-performing, open source Chinese AI models](https://techcrunch.com/2024/12/03/huggingface-ceo-has-concerns-about-chinese-open-source-ai-models/?ref=s3t.org) trained on data censored by the Chinese government. Example below:
QwQ-32B Model output -[ Image Courtesy of TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2024/12/03/huggingface-ceo-has-concerns-about-chinese-open-source-ai-models/?ref=s3t.org)
Important to note that not all models developed in China have this flaw. TechCrunch says that [Qwen2.5-72B-Instruct](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/julienchaumond%5Fnew-default-model-in-huggingchat-qwen25-activity-7265433494997086208-1P6t/?ref=s3t.org) does not answer based on censored data.
### Tricking AI
[Human outwits AI Agent, Wins $47K crypto AI challenge](https://www.theblock.co/post/328747/human-player-outwits-freysa-ai-agent-in-47000-crypto-challenge?ref=s3t.org): In this challenge, humans try to convince an AI agent "Freysa" to transfer funds to them. Freysa is programmed to resist such attempts. On the 483rd attempt, one player defeated Freysa by claiming they were making a $100 donation. To receive the donation, the AI agent called its "ApproveTransfer" function. But this function was actually only capable of *outbound* transfers (not inbound donations as the trickster implied).
The AI Agent Freysa was thus fooled into sending $47K to the player and lost the challenge. A sobering example of how autonomous agents can have serious holes in their awareness and be misled into violating their programmed guardrails.
---
### Data & Privacy: Rethinking Data Ownership
Positive moves on protection of personal data this week:
- [Consumer Financial Protection Bureau](https://www.consumerfinance.gov/about-us/newsroom/cfpb-proposes-rule-to-stop-data-brokers-from-selling-sensitive-personal-data-to-scammers-stalkers-and-spies/?ref=s3t.org) proposes tightened rules on selling sensitive data. See also [Verge's explainer](https://www.theverge.com/2024/12/3/24311498/cfpb-rule-data-brokers-social-security-number-fico-score?ref=s3t.org).
- [FTC Action Against Gravy Analytics](https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/news/press-releases/2024/12/ftc-takes-action-against-gravy-analytics-venntel-unlawfully-selling-location-data-tracking-consumers?ref=s3t.org) \- FTC alledges the firm sold location data about consumer visits to churches, labor unions, military sites and other sensitive locations.
While this is promising, the broader conversation that change leaders need to have with their elected representatives, and with companies that sell data: **Individuals are the owner of (or at least deserve a controlling vote in) the data they generate, the data that gets generated by them, or gets generated as a representation of them.**
🎯[See this brief S3T Perspective for wording that you can use in these crucial conversations about data ownership. ](https://www.s3t.org/rethinking-data-ownership/)
---
### Use or Share these free S3T Resources:
###
🧮 [Personal Finance learning page](https://www.s3t.org/pf/)
Offers *3 valuable resources.* 1\. A Budget Planner to create a suggested monthly budget based on your income. 2\. A Budget Basics section to learn how to use your budget to build your financial security over time. 3\. A Recommended Reading section for further learning. Perfect for helping a young adult or anyone learning how to managed their finances.
### 🧰 [Layoff Recovery Toolkit](https://www.s3t.org/layoffs/)
This unique toolkit is designed to help you navigate a layoff with confidence, giving you practical tools to help you set a strong positive mindset, conduct a highly effective job search, and be 110% ready for what’s next. **Learn how to share your *past* success stories in a way that excites people about working with you to create *future* success stories.**
---
## How to build good planning habits
We're continuing our [Change Leadership Learning Series](https://www.s3t.org/change-leadership-learning-series/) now in the 201 level where we are Learning and applying change leadership skills on personal, organizational and macro levels.
So far we've learned about managing our time ([Making time to lead change](https://www.s3t.org/making-time-to-lead-change/)), and managing our focus ([Layers of work](https://www.s3t.org/using-layers/)).
This week we're going to learn how to **build good planning habits**. Why is this important?
Everyone can benefit from a general pattern of:
- Setting your intent
- Attempting and executing that intent
- Learning from and celebrating that experience.
It's just innate to how we work and how we experience life. BUT planning is not a one-size-fits-all kind of thing. Different people need different cadences and tools. *So this is your chance to find what works best for you!*
### Click here to access this week's Change Leadership 201 segment: [5 Building blocks for good planning habits](https://www.s3t.org/building-blocks-for-good-planning-habits/)
---
###
## 💪 5 Tips to help you and your team finish the year strong
As the year draws to a close, it's very normal for all of us to experience a range of emotions. Use them to propel yourself forward: Focus on your own unique learning and growth journey.
Key point: YOU get to define what a successful finish looks like for you. Click the card below to access the 5 tactics for a strong finish and use them to make the most of the remaining days and weeks in your year.
Best wishes for a **strong finish!**
[Top 5 Ways to Finish the Year StrongTake the 5 tactics shared here and use them to make the most of the days and weeks left in your year.S3TRalph Perrine](https://www.s3t.org/finish-strong/)
## 📗S3T Playbooks for S3T Full Access Members
Playbooks offer proven strategies and tactics for complex problems faced by change leaders. Go here for the [full list of S3T Playbooks](https://www.s3t.org/playbooks/).
Here are two with special relevance for end-of-year activities:
### Better Annual Planning
Many companies struggle to create actionable coherent annual plans - the reason why might surprise you. Click the banner below to learn about smarter more inclusive annual planning.
[🧭 S3T Downloadable Guide for Smarter, More Inclusive Annual PlanningStart learning change leadership skills that give you an edge.S3TRalph Perrine](https://www.s3t.org/better-annual-planning/)
### How to Stop a Zombie Project!
Carry-over projects...projects that didn't finish this year, and need to be carried over to the next year - can sap a company's ability to respond in a timely manner to new opportunities or threats. While some carry-overs are unavoidable, smart companies learn to watch for "zombie projects" that just need to be stopped.
[S3T Playbook: How to Stop Zombie Projects from Sapping your Focus and ResourcesStraight talk about innovation, hype, and where leaders often waste time and money.S3TRalph Perrine](https://www.s3t.org/stop-zombie-projects/)
💡
****If you haven't yet gotten your Full Access subscription you can sign up quickly right now by clicking the Subscribe button and selecting the** ***Full Access** **option!**
###
---
**Thank you for what you do!** Learning and applying change leadership principles in your work makes a difference - perhaps to many who will never be able to come back and thank you. So I thank you for your work and leadership. It means a lot.
Ralph
### Thanksgiving Edition
URL: https://www.s3t.org/thanksgiving-2024/
Last updated: 2024-11-29T06:28:42.000Z
*Happy Friday and hope you all had a wonderful Thanksgiving Day!*
S3T Podcast Thanksgiving Edition 2024
0:00
/1679.3338775510204
1×
*Click the player above to listen to this edition of S3T! You can also* [*listen on Spotify*](https://creators.spotify.com/pod/show/gets3t/episodes/Thanksgiving-Edition-e2rkjut?ref=s3t.org)*.*
### In this Edition of S3T:
- 💰 **Reflect & celebrate, and get ready for what's next**: Pantera Capital’s 1000x returns since 2013 highlight Bitcoin’s massive growth and untapped potential in global financial systems. How will the evolution of the world's financial architecture be impacted by crypto? 📈
- 🏦 **Near term: keep an eye on**: The optimism in private capital for 2025, which could benefit institutional and high-net-worth investors while emphasizing the need for broader financial inclusion. 📊
- 📚 **Let’s learn how to empower others**: Teach budgeting, saving, and investing skills to build financial stability and help individuals manage capital alongside wages for long-term security. 🤓
- 🌍 **Change leaders should champion this idea**: Inclusive capitalism thrives when everyone participates—connect underserved communities with resources and foster skill development to unlock wealth creation opportunities. 🌟
- 🔧 **Start driving change today with these tools**: S3T resources like the Budget Planner, Layoff Recovery Toolkit, and Change Leadership learning segments are designed to support personal and professional growth for you, your team and others you meet!
- 🚀 **Premium Resources for Full Access Members:** 8 Playbooks on AI & Data, Org Effectiveness and Influence & Aligning.
- 🕐 **Manage your Focus with this strategy**: This Change Leadership Learning Segement introduces the "Layers" approach—a proven method to manage your work and focus more effectively.
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
❤️ [Click here to leave a tip](https://www.s3t.org/#/portal/support) if you'd like to help others learn about change leadership. Tips help make it possible to provide extended free trials for worthy recipients who currently lack the ability to pay for S3T learning resources.
---
Ziggurat of Ur - Photo by [حسن](https://unsplash.com/@hasanmajed%5F%5F?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Like Buying Gold in 1000 BC
*The evolution of the world's financial architecture is one of the key strategic themes for Change Leaders. Understanding the technical and economic implications is important, but it's also important to learn and work toward a more inclusive economy. Here are some of the latest developments and insights from this week.*
Dan Morehead and the Pantera Capital team are [celebrating a milestone this Thanksgiving: hitting 1000x returns](https://panteracapital.com/blockchain-letter/1000x-pantera-bitcoin-fund/?ref=s3t.org) on their Bitcoin investment journey that started in 2013\. Morehead thinks we are still early in the adoption cycle. Key notes and quotes from his post:
- In May 2013 you could buy 156,000 Bitcoin with $20 million. In 2013-2015 Pantera bought 2% of the world's Bitcoin
- In 2020 Bitcoin's market cap was the same as L'Oreal. Today it is 10x L'Oreal and bigger than Meta:
[Courtesy of Pantera Capital](https://panteracapital.com/blockchain-letter/1000x-pantera-bitcoin-fund/?ref=s3t.org#%5Fftn1)
- 88% compound growth rate since Pantera launched the Bitcoin fund eleven years ago.
> There is "north of 50% chance that the world adopts a global currency/payment system in which free cryptography replaces the very expensive ‘trust’ charged by banks/VISA-MasterCard/Western Union/PayPal/etc."
- 95% of the world's financial wealth has not addressed blockchain. When they do Bitcoin "might be at something like $740,000 / BTC...that’s a market cap of $15 trillion. Not an inconceivable number, relative to $500 trillion[\[2\]](https://panteracapital.com/blockchain-letter/1000x-pantera-bitcoin-fund/?ref=s3t.org#%5Fftn1) in financial assets."
- Buying Bitcoin now is "like buying Gold in 1000 BC."
## Private Capital Optimistic for a better 2025
Private capital (which includes private equity but other forms of capital) now [expects 2025 will be better than 2024](https://www.affinity.co/report/affinity-predictions-report?ref=s3t.org), with more activity. This will benefit primarily institutional investors and high-net worth individuals rather than retail investors.
Traditionally private capital/equity have been reserved for people who could afford to put $5-25million into an investment fund for 7-10 years. These individuals are taking significant risks, but can see investment returns far higher than what is available to retail investors in stocks and bonds. For more details, see Allvue's helpful [explainer on private capital here](https://www.allvuesystems.com/resources/what-is-private-capital/?ref=s3t.org).
### **Change Leadership Perspective: Capitalism works best when everyone participates.**
We need to teach people how to build and manage capital rather than just rely on a salary alone. Key points to know and share:
- As [Picketty](https://www.googleadservices.com/pagead/aclk?sa=L&ai=DChcSEwjcn%5FqDqf-JAxWjU0cBHQ99O5gYABAdGgJxdQ&ae=2&aspm=1&co=1&ase=2&gclid=CjwKCAiAxqC6BhBcEiwAlXp45xg8wyTBzJAYtwPIPvkvLN3LDkj-Bp6m9spm-tc0IQBC6Lp0pLb7MBoCWu4QAvD%5FBwE&ohost=www.google.com&cid=CAESVeD2UkguSTX4m4459R7MqdSzu8vH-ibvbcqfw0XMAYPvq4N3Pq-Fs92QD85znrC93uXMY7Nk52FC0CphIKdzHWQ0dD4tOdvJxcouONbbjxkF7ObXQK0&sig=AOD64%5F1FSqPXaXkJVmscv-fWJPDTEX%5F3Bg&ctype=5&q=&nis=4&ved=2ahUKEwjU2PSDqf-JAxUKFlkFHUp2HCQQ9aACKAB6BAgKEEc&adurl=&ref=s3t.org) and others have shown, wage growth typically does not keep up with capital growth over time. Meaning: a person who relies on wages alone will not reach the same level of wealth as a person who relies on wages plus investing.
- Your best financial security comes when you have a mix of both - have a salary and build your skills so you increase that salary over time, but also build capital and manage its growth over time.
- [Learn how to live on a budget](https://www.s3t.org/pf/) so you can balance your spending with consistent saving and investing. Look for opportunities to start a company or participate in other forms of capital development.
Phil Kotler's [14 Shortcomings of Capitalism](https://fixcapitalism.com/the-14-points?ref=s3t.org) are directionally correct in my view, and when considered together all seem to highlight this key point: **these shortcomings can be solved if we focus on getting *full participation in capitalism*.**
### How to drive full participation in capitalism
- Help everyone gain basic financial literacy: learn how to budget, save and invest.
- This includes helping those who may in an unsustainable financial situations, lacking basic needs and income necessary to progress at all. Connect them with support programs that can help them establish the basics: personal stability and safety, shelter, jobs with future income growth potential, skill building, and finding their why.
- Teach everyone how to tap into their driving purpose: explore and develop their own identity, skills, talents and interests.
- Support them in turning their skills and interests into companies and products that can provide them with a return on investment of their time, talent and money. Or in finding other means of investment that help them grow their wealth over time.
### **More reading & learning:**
- [HBR Summary](https://hbr.org/2014/04/pikettys-capital-in-a-lot-less-than-696-pages?ref=s3t.org) of Piketty's landmark work "*Capital in the 21st Century*". [Used copy on Abebooks.com](https://www.googleadservices.com/pagead/aclk?sa=L&ai=DChcSEwjcn%5FqDqf-JAxWjU0cBHQ99O5gYABAdGgJxdQ&ae=2&aspm=1&co=1&ase=2&gclid=CjwKCAiAxqC6BhBcEiwAlXp45xg8wyTBzJAYtwPIPvkvLN3LDkj-Bp6m9spm-tc0IQBC6Lp0pLb7MBoCWu4QAvD%5FBwE&ohost=www.google.com&cid=CAESVeD2UkguSTX4m4459R7MqdSzu8vH-ibvbcqfw0XMAYPvq4N3Pq-Fs92QD85znrC93uXMY7Nk52FC0CphIKdzHWQ0dD4tOdvJxcouONbbjxkF7ObXQK0&sig=AOD64%5F1FSqPXaXkJVmscv-fWJPDTEX%5F3Bg&ctype=5&q=&nis=4&ved=2ahUKEwjU2PSDqf-JAxUKFlkFHUp2HCQQ9aACKAB6BAgKEEc&adurl=&ref=s3t.org)
- A counter argument: [Testing Piketty's Hypothesis on the Drivers of Inequality](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2016/wp16160.pdf?ref=s3t.org) (PDF). Textbook example of the lengths free market hawks will go to to attempt to refute Piketty's core observation - that capital growth outstrips wage growth, and those who can leverage capital growth enjoy exponentially greater wealth accumulation than those who rely solely on a wages.
- [Chicago Booth Review: *Piketty is wrong and right*](https://www.chicagobooth.edu/review/how-piketty-is-wrong-and-right?ref=s3t.org). Even those who debate Piketty's thesis on financial inequality agree that upskilling workers is urgent. This piece is valuable for its links to other papers and references.
- McKinsey Global Institute: [*How Productively Are We Using Our Wealth?*](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/financial-services/our-insights/the-rise-and-rise-of-the-global-balance-sheet-how-productively-are-we-using-our-wealth?ref=s3t.org) *\-* Argues that global net worth has tripled since 2000, but the gains are mostly from real estate rather than productive capital.
## Actions to take: Use or Share these free S3T Resources:
###
🧮 [Personal Finance learning page](https://www.s3t.org/pf/)
Offers with *3 valuable resources.* 1\. A Budget Planner to create a suggested monthly budget based on your income. 2\. A Budget Basics section to learn how to use your budget to build your financial security over time. 3\. A Recommended Reading section for further learning. Perfect for helping a young adult or anyone learning how to managed their finances.
### 🧰 [Layoff Recovery Toolkit](https://www.s3t.org/layoffs/)
This unique toolkit is designed to help you navigate a layoff with confidence, giving you practical tools to help you set a strong positive mindset, conduct a highly effective job search, and be 110% ready for what’s next. **Learn how to share your *past* success stories in a way that excites people about working with you to create *future* success stories.**
---
We're continuing our [Change Leadership Learning Series](https://www.s3t.org/change-leadership-learning-series/) now in the 201 level where we are Learning and applying change leadership skills on personal, organizational and macro levels.
Last week we learned about [Making time](https://www.s3t.org/making-time-to-lead-change/) because **leading change takes extra time**. We learned to apply a proven way to *maximize* what you can do with your available time.
This week we're building on that by learning how to use a "Layers" approach to managing your work and your focus more effectively. Instead of seeing life as a futile quest for focus time, Layers gives you a proven way track and do what you need to do.
### Click here to access this week's Change Leadership 201 segment: [Layers of Work](https://www.s3t.org/using-layers/)
---
###
## Annual Review Roundup: Top S3T Resources for you and the team
[The Question Top Managers Ask During Performance ReviewsAs performance review season approaches, top-performing people leaders are looking for the best way to evaluate and engage their teams for success in the year ahead. If you are wondering how to prompt a meaningful conversation in your 1:1s with team members, especially when reflecting on this past yearS3TRalph Perrine](https://www.s3t.org/the-question-top-managers-ask-during-performance-reviews/)
[Signaling and perspective taking during Annual Review Season: Talent Strategy Briefing for Paid MembersStart learning change leadership skills that give you an edge.S3TRalph Perrine](https://www.s3t.org/annual-reviews-talent-strategy-brief/)
[Incorporating Change Leadership into your annual goals and annual reviewsStart learning change leadership skills that give you an edge.S3TRalph Perrine](https://www.s3t.org/incorporating-change-leadership-into-your-annual-goals-and-annual-reviews/)
##
---
## 📗S3T Playbooks for Premium Members
Playbooks offer proven strategies and tactics for complex problems faced by change leaders. Here is a list of playbooks related to AI & Data, Org Effectiveness and Influence & Aligning.
💡
****If you haven't yet gotten your Full Access subscription you can sign up quickly right now by clicking the Subscribe button and selecting the** ***Full Access** **option!**
### Playbooks on AI & Data
[🌟S3T Playbook: Validating AI use casesAvoid false starts and unrealistic expectations by using this framework to validate your AI use cases.S3TRalph Perrine](https://www.s3t.org/validating-ai-use-cases/)
[S3T Playbook: Shift to effective gatekeeping in the age of generative AI💡“A Great Flood - of words and code - is coming soon.” - AI:The Great Flood 2.0, December 2022\. The world’s supervisory workloads are about to explode and our staffing models are not ready. The S3T edition for December 11, 2022 noted that the rise of GenAI wouldS3TRalph Perrine](https://www.s3t.org/genai-supervisory-workloads/)
[S3T Playbook: Gaining Buy-in for Data ModernizationMany enterprises won’t be ready to participate in the AI revolution without data modernization…S3TRalph Perrine](https://www.s3t.org/s3t-playbook-data-modernization/)
### Organizational Effectiveness
[S3T Playbook: Spend Wisely in a Hype-Driven WorldBuild & Evergreen your own Independent Understanding of the Modern Technology Landscape In today’s rapidly evolving tech landscape, the pressure to invest in cutting-edge solutions has never been greater. Yet, for IT leaders and CFOs, the margin for error has never been thinner. How do you distinguish truly actionable innovationsS3TRalph Perrine](https://www.s3t.org/spendwisely/)
[⚖️ S3T Playbook: Addressing issues related to uneven accountabilityOne group feels the full heat of accountability for an outcome but is forced to rely on/wait for another group that doesn’t feel the heat.S3TRalph Perrine](https://www.s3t.org/disabling-accountability-shields/)
[S3T Playbook: Harmonize Different Kinds of Expertise to Achieve SuccessIt’s no longer enough to delegate to different groups. You have to harmonize different kinds of expertise.S3TRalph Perrine](https://www.s3t.org/harmonize-expertise/)
### Influencing and Aligning
[S3T Playbook: Flipping the Script: Understanding and Changing Internal & Macro NarrativesA few minutes learning how to understand and change narratives can save months of churn and friction.S3TRalph Perrine](https://www.s3t.org/changing-internal-and-macro-narratives/)
[📗S3T Playbook: 6 Proven Ways to Resolve ConflictsLeading change at an organizational or macro level will require you to learn how to resolve conflicts. Here is a framework of 6 options that you can use to resolve most conflicts.S3TRalph Perrine](https://www.s3t.org/6-ways-to-resolve-conflicts/)
---
**Thank you for what you do!** Learning and applying change leadership principles in your work makes a difference - perhaps to many who will never be able to come back and thank you. So I thank you for your work and leadership. It means a lot.
Ralph
### 🦃Nov 22 -Bitcoin 99k, Layoffs, Morphing Wheels, Change Leadership Mindset & more
URL: https://www.s3t.org/nov-22-2024/
Last updated: 2024-11-22T14:50:29.000Z
*Happy Friday! Welcome to the S3T Weekly Newsletter: Your Guide to Navigating Economic Shifts and Emerging Tech Developments. Hope this finds you doing well, and hope you are all set for a relaxing Thanksgiving week!*
*🎧* Listen here *or* [*Listen on the S3T Podcast!*](https://creators.spotify.com/pod/show/gets3t/episodes/Nov-22--Bitcoin-99k--Layoffs--Morphing-Wheels--Change-Leadership-Mindset--more-e2rbdag?ref=s3t.org)
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**In this Edition of S3T:**
- 📉 **Economic Trends**: October's leading indicators continue to decline, with the Fed signaling a slower pace for rate cuts. November may bring significant layoffs, including at Boeing.
- 📊 **Inflation and Voter Behavior**: Data suggests inflation disproportionately impacts poorer consumers, with rising costs of low-priced goods. Immigrant voters may have contributed to Trump’s recent win.
- 🏠 **Bitcoin Boom**: Bitcoin nears $100K, making non-inflationary assets more attractive. The cost of a home in Bitcoin has plummeted, signaling a shift in value dynamics.
- 🏥 **Healthcare Changes**: Concerns grow over deregulation under the new administration, which could create volatility in the healthcare sector. The US ranks lowest among high-income nations in healthcare quality.
- ⚖️ **AI Legal Challenge**: OpenAI faces a defamation lawsuit as a judge denies its motion to dismiss. The case continues, highlighting legal questions around generative AI.
- 🚀 **Crypto and FinTech**: Gary Gensler's resignation as SEC Chair fuels optimism for crypto innovation. FinTech may be reshaped by stablecoins, DeFi, and token economies.
- 🧑🏫 **Education & Innovation**: OpenAI launches a free course for teachers using ChatGPT. A Korean institute develops a morphing wheel enabling wheelchairs to climb stairs.
- 🏆 **Change Leadership Recap**: Celebrating the completion of Change Leadership 101, focusing on mindset essentials like contentment, resilience, and abundance. Next up: applying these skills on personal and macro levels.
- ⏳ **Next Steps in Leadership**: The journey continues with strategies to activate change leadership skills personally, beginning with mastering time management.
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
❤️ [Click here to leave a tip](https://www.s3t.org/#/portal/support) if you'd like to help others learn about change leadership. Tips help make it possible to provide extended free trials for worthy recipients who currently lack the ability to pay for S3T learning resources.
---
## Bitcoin Soars, Gensler Resigns, Inflation Hits Poor Hardest...Big Layoffs in Nov?
Leading indicators [continued to decline in October](https://www.haver.com/articles/u-s-leading-indicators-continue-to-decline-in-october?ref=s3t.org) and The Fed signals that it [may not cut rates as steadily as previously thought](https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-rates-loans-inflation-trump-economy-76aff4d065a5785bcbd4f6a464c2e563?ref=s3t.org). November may be an [ugly layoff month](https://www.fastcompany.com/91229829/tech-mass-layoffs-tracker-november-2024-list-update?ref=s3t.org) for [Boeing](https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/washington/articles/2024-11-18/boeing-layoffs-so-far-total-nearly-2-200-workers-in-washington-state?ref=s3t.org) and more. See total [2024 layoffs as of Oct here](https://techcrunch.com/2024/11/13/tech-layoffs-2024-list/?ref=s3t.org).
The Economist shares [Data suggesting immigrant voters helped Donald Trump win](https://www.economist.com/united-states/2024/11/14/back-to-the-1850s?ref=s3t.org). NYT uncovers the [role that recruiting agencies have played in helping undocumented workers find jobs](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/17/us/immigration-undocumented-migrants-jobs.html?ref=s3t.org) \- a troubling example of employers using these firms to relieve themselves of the responsibility to properly vet workers.
****🧭 Premium Content for Paying Members:** [****Deeper Dive: Immigration, Talent Strategy & Ethics Guardrails - a guide for employers and founders.**](https://www.s3t.org/immigration/)
A related point, as Democrats mull what went wrong: *Poorer consumers can be disproportionately impacted by inflation, when the lowest priced goods have the steepest increases*. This seems to have been the case in the 2021-2024 inflation cycle per findings in [this June 2024 NBER paper by Alberto Cavallo and Oliksiy Kryvtsov](https://www.nber.org/system/files/working%5Fpapers/w32626/w32626.pdf?ref=s3t.org) (PDF). For more election surprise analysis see S3T Premium Content Leadership Briefings Below.
The economics connected to the dollar vs the economics connected to the non-inflationary assets continue to show a sharp concerning contrast (see graphic below). The price of a home in Bitcoin has gone from 664 BTC to 6.6 BTC as of May 2024 and now be closer to 4 Bitcoin given current Bitcoin prices of around 100K.
###
Healthcare change on the way
AMA, healthcare industry are wary of the Trump administration's [ideas for Medicare billing overhaul](https://www.statnews.com/2024/11/20/rfk-jr-ama-medicare-doctor-pay-ruc/?ref=s3t.org). AJMC: [US Healthcare ranks lowest](https://www.ajmc.com/view/us-health-care-system-ranks-last-overall-among-other-high-income-countries?ref=s3t.org) among high income nations.
The new administrations apparent bent toward deregulation combined with non-conventional cabinet pickets suggests extreme volatility may be in store for at least portions of the US healthcare system.
---
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## 🔒S3T Premium Content: Leadership Briefings
- [S3T Perspectives on why 2020's Inflation is different](https://www.s3t.org/inflation-perspectives/)
- [A Proposal for Correcting Flawed Inflation Tracking](https://www.s3t.org/inflation-tracking/)
Don't forget to check in with the [S3T Economic Dashboard](https://www.s3t.org/dashboard/) for the *Top 500+ US & Intl real-time economic indicators, plus latest significant developments and updated outlook.*
---
## AI Legal tests:
### Can Generative AI products be sued for defamation?
In January 2024 [OpenAI filed a motion to dismiss](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/ip-law/openai-fails-to-escape-first-defamation-suit-from-radio-host?ref=s3t.org) based on the notion that the user knew the AI output was false. The judge refused to dismiss the case. As of [Nov 2024 OpenAI was still seeking resolution on the matter](https://www.law360.com/technology/articles/2261443?ref=s3t.org).
### What are AI Legal Hold & Data Retention Requirements?
The New York Times copyright lawsuit case has taken a new twist, with the [Times alleging that OpenAI engineers deleted data pertinent to the the NYT's case](https://techcrunch.com/2024/11/20/openai-accidentally-deleted-potential-evidence-in-ny-times-copyright-lawsuit/?guccounter=1&guce%5Freferrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce%5Freferrer%5Fsig=AQAAAF-qsMy3qASzfZsswTlf-cwrKobnfC7cc87ONG1hqxUHcNRTNik7udhIkKNzliVOcSBk29PBhPvlVHza1ACUvd0MhcMyJAbNnJGwbbuoGjBcI1FHK8aN7-5Uwqn1PU4jZRkeIj-z86%5FJrEDsQZvoDa0hCkBy2LjSTJnYe5HFprdm&ref=s3t.org). AI model training can generate enormous amounts of data. This data must be retained for 3 reasons:
- It is critical for the explainability that ethical AI governance requires
- It constitutes management evidence for audits
- It will serve as legal evidence to support or refute claims in legal cases or criminal investigations.
Organizations investing in AI capabilities must consider the cost of retaining large amounts of data in anticipation of future audits and legal requirements. The economics of this will likely make it difficult for smaller players to participate, and force a new set of relationships between smaller more nimble AI innovators connecting to larger players that can afford to the compliance & security costs of very large collections of data.
## Financial Innovation Watch
### Sea change + bull market territory in crypto
Bitcoin nears 100K as [SEC Chair Gary Gensler says he'll resign on Inauguration Day](https://qz.com/sec-chair-gary-gensler-resign-donald-trump-successors-1851705197?ref=s3t.org) in January. Crypto industry leaders all want to join the Trump administration's "[crypto advisory council](https://www.reuters.com/technology/crypto-industry-jockeys-seats-trumps-promised-council-2024-11-21/?ref=s3t.org)."
[Fintech comparison courtesy of CBInsights](https://research.cbinsights.com/startup-failures?ref=s3t.org)
### Beginning of new cycle for FinTech?
"Fintech is in the bargain bin" [says CBInsights](https://research.cbinsights.com/startup-failures?ref=s3t.org) noting opportunities for strategic buyers. What to watch: Will FinTech be taken over / made over by crypto? With Gensler is leaving the SEC, and the anticipation of regulatory clarity and bull market growth, will FinTech get a new life infused with stable coins, DeFi patterns and token economies?
### Other Notables This Week:
**ChatGPT in the classroom:** OpenAI releases a [free online course](https://techcrunch.com/2024/11/20/openai-releases-a-teachers-guide-to-chatgpt-but-some-educators-are-skeptical/?ref=s3t.org) to help teachers use ChatGPT to aid learning in the classroom
**Mobility Innovation**: A [Morphing Wheel](https://www.reuters.com/video/watch/idRW956913112024RP1/?chan=technology&ref=s3t.org) that changes in real time may be able to let wheelchairs climb stairs. The breakthrough is under development at the Korea Institute of Machinery and Materials (KIMM).
---
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This week we are doing a review of the Change Leadership Series lessons we've been going through for the past 6 Weeks. If you've been working your way through the lessons each week, *Congratulations 🎉 You've completed the 101 Series!*
Here is a quick recap.
## Change Leadership 101: Basics & Mindset
###
Basics: What & Why
- [Why Change Leadership is the most important skill of the 21st Century](https://www.s3t.org/why-change-leadership-is-the-most-important-skill-of-the-21st-century/) \- change leadership is a set of skills that traditionally has been thought of (and taught) as separate disciplines. Learning and leveraging these skills together is the *only* way to successfully meet the challenges of the 21st century.
- [Defining Change Leadership](https://www.s3t.org/defining-change-leadership/) \- Change leadership is a way of seeing, working, mobilizing and navigating. In this lesson we learn how change leadership skills enable these new ways of driving intentional beneficial change.
Once we've established these basics, we then look at the 4 elements of the Change Leadership mindset.
### Change Leadership Mindset
The path of Change Leadership - being a purpose driven leader of beneficial change - is not any easy one. It requires resilience that comes from the 4 elements of the Change Leadership mindset.
- [Change Leadership mindset: contentment](https://www.s3t.org/mindset-contentment/) \- Counterintuitive reasons why contentment is key to success.
- [Change Leadership mindset: the open palm](https://www.s3t.org/the-open-palm-mindset/) \- Driving change incurs risk; learning when to persist vs when to pivot, and being able to pivot gracefully from one chapter to the next. All reasons for learning how to "hold the things of this world in an open palm."
- [Change Leadership mindset: life as a tapestry](https://www.s3t.org/tapestry/) \- Embracing the multi-threaded nature of life is especially vital for change leaders who must often juggle responsibilities for today's operations, while designing and building the capabilities of tomorrow.
- [The abundant mindset vs the scarcity mindset:](https://www.s3t.org/abundance-vs-scarcity/) Scarcity always loses, and makes everyone else lose too. An abundance mindset enables more effective solutions to the complex challenges of the 21st century.
Together these 4 elements give Change Leaders a very different lens and outlook.
**Congratulations!** You've taken a bold step into your new identity as a Change Leader, a purpose-driven champion of beneficial change. You've embraced a mindset that transforms challenges into opportunities.
- With *contentment*, you now understand the surprising strength that comes from being grounded and at peace.
- With *the open palm*, you've unlocked the wisdom to persist or pivot gracefully.
- You see *life as a tapestry*, balancing the present and future with vision and agility.
- And with *an abundant mindset*, your eyes are open to new possibilities where others only see limitations, and this lets you unleash empowering solutions that uplift everyone.
You've leveled up—celebrate this milestone and your incredible journey ahead!
*You are now ready to move on to Change Leadership 201!*
## Change Leadership 201: Learning and applying change leadership skills on personal, organizational and macro levels
It's useful to think of change leadership as a set of skills that need to be activated on 3 levels: Personal, Organizational, and Macro. As you move to larger contexts, the challenges increase.
We're going to start with the Personal Level - how to Activate Change Leadership skills in your own individual life, and how to help other individuals do the same.
The first and most powerful step is - learning how to *make time*. Click the link below to get dive in!
### 🕐 [Activating Change Leadership on a Personal Level: Making time](https://www.s3t.org/making-time-to-lead-change/)
*Leading change takes extra time - here's a proven way to maximize what you can do with your available time.*
Photo by [Vaughn Wright](https://unsplash.com/@heyvaughn?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
Stay ahead of the curve with S3T. **🌎 Empowering change leaders to bring intentional beneficial change.**
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### 🌪️Nov 15 - Navigating a world in flux
URL: https://www.s3t.org/nov-15-navigating-a-world-in-flux/
Last updated: 2024-11-22T12:15:25.000Z
**Welcome to the S3T Weekly Newsletter: Your Guide to Navigating Economic Shifts and Emerging Tech Developments**
Today we are talking about how individuals, investors, and companies are navigating a world in flux - and what appears to be the onset of a new era of experimentation and volatility.
As always S3T is committed to being your trusted guide to navigating economic shifts and emerging tech developments of the 21st centry, while equipping you to be an effective problem solver and leader of intentional beneficial innovation.
Ralph
---
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## **Latest Insights from the S3T Economic Dashboard**
**📈 Bitcoin Hits $90K Amid Institutional Confidence**
The price of Bitcoin surged to $90,000 this week, marking a 30% rise since election night. 🚀 The total cryptocurrency market cap now stands at an astonishing $3.1 trillion. Institutional investors are betting big on a new crypto-friendly administration, positioning crypto as a hedge against inflation and a pillar in the evolving financial landscape.
**📊 Inflation Creeps Higher**
Inflation edged up to 2.6%, with projections suggesting the incoming Trump administration’s policies could drive inflation up in the years ahead. 📉 Institutional and retail investors continue to seek refuge in non-inflationary assets, signaling eroding faith in government-backed currencies and traditional financial systems.
**🌐 November 2024 Analysis & Outlook**
The financial architecture of the world is undergoing a seismic shift. 🌌 A migration toward non-inflationary assets is underway, fueled by skepticism of centralized systems. Dive deeper into these trends and what they mean for your portfolio in our [Premium content](https://www.s3t.org/dashboard/).
### [**Visit the S3T Economic Dashboard**](https://www.s3t.org/dashboard/) for full details, with supporting links to all this week's best reads.
Paying members get premium content packed with actionable insights and exclusive tools. **You can sign up by clicking blue subscribe button and selecting S3T Full Access.**
---
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## Emerging Tech: Opportunities and Challenges in Focus
### **🚀 AI's Ripple Effect Across Industries**
The burgeoning energy, processing, and infrastructure demands of AI are becoming key economic drivers. Here’s what’s happening:
- **📢 Telecom Renaissance**: AI advancements have given telecom player Lumens a much-needed revival.
- **⚛ Nuclear Energy Investments**: Big tech is doubling down on nuclear energy to fuel AI’s insatiable energy appetite.
- **🎥 Cinema Transformed**: FlawlessAI’s tools are revolutionizing film editing and localization, enabling seamless dialogue edits and multilingual synchronization.
### **🌐 Tech & the Shift to Aggressive Deregulation: 4 Spaces to Watch**
The Trump administration’s aggressive deregulation agenda, supported by a GOP majority in both chambers, will reshape emerging tech policy:
- **🤖 AI Safety Measures Loosened**: Expect fewer compulsory AI safety regulations, as highlighted by Nick Reese, Emerging Tech Policy at DHS.
- **🔒 Cybersecurity**: A mixed bag—the push for deregulation clashes with the need for robust infrastructure protections.
- **🎙️ Free Speech vs. Misinformation**: Social platforms face scrutiny as they amplify selective narratives. A surprising twist? 💡 Satirical outlet The Onion acquired InfoWars in a bankruptcy auction, endorsed by Sandy Hook families.
- **🔮 Spyware Accountability**: With fewer checks, spyware companies may thrive. Learn more in the Carnegie Endowment’s explainer and the U.S. State Department’s recent note on countering spyware misuse.
### [Click here for full context with links to best reads & supporting materials](https://www.s3t.org/tech/) for this week's Emerging Tech developments.
---
## [The abundant mindset vs the scarcity mindset](https://www.s3t.org/abundance-vs-scarcity/)
*Scarcity always loses, and makes everyone else lose too. An abundance mindset enables more effective solutions to the complex challenges of the 21st century.* Continuing our [Change Leadership Learning Series](https://www.s3t.org/change-leadership-learning-series/), this lesson focuses on
- How to challenge the underlying assumptions of zero-sum thinking.
- 5 strategies for elevating an abundance mindset at individual and organizational levels.
- How to drive higher engagement, productivity, and collective success by demonstrating that there is indeed enough success to go around.
**📖 Click here to access the lesson:** [**The abundant mindset vs the scarcity mindset**](https://www.s3t.org/abundance-vs-scarcity/)**.**
---
**🔒Premium Content for Paying Members**
## **🔧S3T Playbook for IT Leaders and CFOs: Spend Wisely in a Hype-Driven World**
Photo by [Robs](https://unsplash.com/@robinne?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
In today’s rapidly evolving tech landscape, **the pressure to invest in cutting-edge solutions has never been greater.** Yet, for most IT leaders and CFOs, **the margin for error has never been thinner.** How do you distinguish truly actionable innovations from overhyped vaporware?
The [Spend Wisely S3T Playbook](https://www.s3t.org/spendwisely/) will show you how to:
- Make informed choices about emerging technologies 🤔
- Balance competitive advantage with fiscal responsibility ⚖️
- Avoid costly missteps that could hinder your organization’s growth 🚫
- Maintain clarity in a fast-changing tech landscape and identify actionable opportunities. 👓
- Protect you and your team from unwise hype-driven decisions and investments. 🛡️
This S3T Playbook gives you practical steps for helping you and your team build and maintain **an independent understanding of the evolution of technology**.
### **Let the Spend Wisely Playbook help you learn how to navigate today's tech landscape and spending decisions with confidence.**
---
## **Career Spotlight: 💼** Turn a Layoff into a Level UP
You or someone you know facing a layoff? This mini-course will help you:
- Regain confidence and clarity 🌟
- Build a strategic job search plan 🔄
- Identify new opportunities in emerging industries 🚀
### [**Click here to start learning right now, how to turn your layoff into a Level UP**](https://www.s3t.org/layoffs/) and take control of your next career chapter.
---
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## **Actionable Steps as we move into a new era**
As I talk with people in person and interact online, there is a pervasive sense that we are moving into a different era, marked by continued acceleration of technology and climate change impacts, but now complicated by political shifts and a clear acceleration in the evolution of the world's financial architecture. I see different people reacting in different ways, but everyone seems to be searching for actionable steps to help maintain awareness and equilibrium. Clear themes so far for individuals, companies and policy makers:
**👥 Individuals**: Stay informed and adaptable. Prioritize learning about non-inflationary assets and emerging tech.
**🏛 Corporate Policy Teams**: Assess how deregulation and shifting financial trends impact your industry. Build resilience in your strategies.
**🛠️ Community & Public Policy Advocates**: Advocate for balanced approaches that ensure tech development aligns with public good.
Now is a time to engage with elected and non-elected representatives and officials. The mission of S3T is to help individuals and teams be informed and equipped to advocate for intentional beneficial change and effective problem solving. Thank you again for reading and sharing S3T!
---
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Stay ahead of the curve with S3T. **🌎 Empowering change leaders to bring intentional beneficial change.**
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### 🗳️Election 2024: A Reckoning with Economic Inequality
URL: https://www.s3t.org/election-2024-a-reckoning-with-economic-inequality/
Last updated: 2024-11-08T06:28:43.000Z
### *🎧* [*Listen to this on the S3T Podcast!*](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org)
###
In this Edition of S3T:
- 🗳️ **Election Results bring Economic Reality Check**
Fed cuts rates amid anticipated policy changes with the new billionaire-backed administration ushered in by voters seeking relief.
- 🏠 **Families Struggle in Housing Market**
Institutional investors driving up home prices, leaving families competing with corporations for housing in an increasingly unaffordable market.
- 🏡 **Homebuyer Trends Shift**
With down payments at a 25-year high, the average first-time homebuyer age is now 56, reflecting wealth gaps in the housing market.
- 💻 **Work-From-Home Companies Outperform**
A University of Melbourne study shows higher stock returns for companies offering flexible work options, backed by data from FlexJobs.
- 💸 **Crypto Politics & Election Impact**
Crypto-friendly candidates gained traction as a large crypto-owning population leaned towards candidates opposing strict regulations.
- 🤖 **Musk, Misinformation & AI Deregulation Risks**
Musk’s support for deregulation could lead to unregulated AI growth, a risk emphasized by experts urging responsible development.
- 🧶 **Change Leadership Insight: Life as a Tapestry**
Success isn't only about focusing on essentials; weaving together diverse life experiences creates a more fulfilling journey.
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
❤️ [Click here to leave a tip](https://www.s3t.org/#/portal/support) if you'd like to help others learn about change leadership. Tips help make it possible to provide extended free trials for worthy recipients who currently lack the ability to pay for S3T learning resources.
---
## Election results: economy not what it seemed
### Almost lost among election headlines: Rate cut
The [Federal Reserve cut rates](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/07/fed-rate-decision-november-2024.html?ref=s3t.org) by a quarter percent Thursday, as the prospect of a new administration with radical policy changes raised concerns across multiple sectors of the global economy. The Haver Analytics Global Economic Policy Uncertainty index is ticking up (chart below, [full set of related charts here](https://www.haver.com/articles/charts-of-the-week-uncertainty-is-the-easy-part?ref=s3t.org)):
Markets hit [new all time highs](https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/06/investing/dow-stock-market-trump/index.html?ref=s3t.org), as did Bitcoin - at time of [writing was above 76K](https://www.coinbase.com/price/bitcoin?ref=s3t.org), as the US enters a new era with a government that will - quite literally - be a government of the billionaires, by the billionaires and for the billionaires. Americans voted for what they believe will be economic change - there is quite a risk that the change will not be net positive for anyone below millionaire status.
Much has been written about the surprising (to some) results of the US election. As noted in many previous editions of S3T, the Federal measures of inflation fail to materially reflect the actual lived experience of working families. (Paying members have access to inflation and economics explainers that go in depth on this, and what needs to be changed - click the Subscribe button and select the Paid option to sign up).
Relevant: This organization of [Pro bono financial advisors](https://ffpprobono.org/volunteers/?ref=s3t.org) helps people learn financial literacy and manage their money. We need more like them.
Photo by [Blake Wheeler](https://unsplash.com/@blakesox?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### Families compete with Investors for homes
Institutional investors who buy up homes by the thousands are having a [disturbing impact on the housing market](https://sherwood.news/snacks/power/us-homebuyers-are-older-and-wealthier-than-ever-as-campaigns-promise-housing/?ref=s3t.org):
- Avg downpayment reaches a 25 year high
- Average age of a US homebuyer is 56
- The average wealth gap between renter and home owner is 390K
Digital tech backed by advanced analytics tools has made it easier for institutional investors to transact and manage large portfolios of dispersed housing units. For a deeper dive on how this investor activity drives up the price of homes and forces more families to rent, see this [HUD evidence paper](https://www.huduser.gov/portal/periodicals/em/winter23/highlight1.html?ref=s3t.org) on the impact of institutional investors on the housing market.
[Courtesy of Sherwood](https://sherwood.news/snacks/power/us-homebuyers-are-older-and-wealthier-than-ever-as-campaigns-promise-housing/?ref=s3t.org)
### WFH correlates with higher stock returns
This new University of Melbourne study of top work-from-home companies between 2014-2020 shows that [workplaces with flexible options enjoy higher share prices](https://fortune.com/2024/10/30/work-from-home-rto-debate-better-stock-returns/?ref=s3t.org) over both short and long term periods. The study used data from [Flexjobs](https://www.flexjobs.com/blog/top100remote/?ref=s3t.org) which tracks the top 100 companies with remote jobs.
---
## Crypto & AI center stage
### Democrat ambivalence on crypto comes back to haunt them
As noted in multiple previous editions of S3T, the Democrats misread of crypto always had the potential to cost them an election - or be one of the contributing factors. One [frequently quoted figure](https://www.security.org/digital-security/cryptocurrency-annual-consumer-report/?ref=s3t.org) holds that up to 40% or approximately 93 million Americans own crypto in 2024\. Many of these individuals listen regularly to a set of podcasters (NLW, Bankless, Unchained, Pomp etc) who for the past 2+ years have been doing play-by-play reporting on Elizabeth Warren and Gary Gensler's predatory and misguided “war on crypto”.
[Stand with Crypto Election Updates](https://www.standwithcrypto.org/races?ref=s3t.org) (as of 11/6 10pm)
In response the [crypto industry spent aggressively on candidates](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/06/technology/crypto-industry-spending-election.html?ref=s3t.org) who supported crypto. Coinbase users and those who signed up for the [Stand with Crypto](https://www.standwithcrypto.org/?ref=s3t.org) alliance likewise saw scorecards showing top of ballot Republicans as highly supportive of Crypto and Democrats candidates as "against" or "unknown."
Above - screenshot of Stand with Crypto text messages sent to supporters.
As this [Candidate Scorecard shows](https://www.standwithcrypto.org/races?ref=s3t.org), not all Democrats are against crypto. But the overall optics likely swayed some voters toward GOP candidates.
### Musk uses X as misinformation megaphone
Musk's far right political narratives - most of them blatantly false - [generated 17.1 billion views between July and the election](https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/04/media/elon-musk-election-x-misinformation-trump-harris/?ref=s3t.org). By deploying a wall of falsehood to boost Trump, observers believe [Musk is cozying up to Trump](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/how-musks-clout-with-trump-could-enrich-his-companies-2024-11-06/?ref=s3t.org) hoping to "insulate his companies from regulation or enforcement."
> “Elon Musk sees all regulations as getting in the way of his businesses and innovation...He sees the Trump administration as the vehicle for getting rid of as many regulations as he can, so he can do whatever he wants, as fast as he wants.” - [former top SpaceX official](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/how-musks-clout-with-trump-could-enrich-his-companies-2024-11-06/?ref=s3t.org)
Musk and Trump both have made statements about radically deregulation and downsizing of government. In some ways they are just singing along with the roar of a wind that has been blowing for some time already: governments, courts, regulators, utilities, local planning authorities have all been struggling to keep up with the rapidly accelerating change driven by emerging tech and transforming global economy.
As noted previously in S3T, generative AI has obsoleted the 20th century's quest for productivity, by unleashing tools that can in a single day produce more output than humans could possibly scrutinize in a month.
It's rarely a bad idea to consider how to rightsize government. But its also rarely a good idea to completely remove accountability and guardrails.
### The specter of deregulated AI
One of the more worrying prospects of this is the potential for the Trump-Musk duo to embark on a **reckless deregulation of AI,** unleashing AI capabilities we are not ready for, or do not have full abilities to contain or control. See this [NAIAC report on Potential Future Risk of AI](https://ai.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Findings%5FThe-Potential-Future-Risks-of-AI.pdf?ref=s3t.org) (PDF) which recommends a multi-stakeholder approach that includes regulation & research. See *Multi-disciplinary application of AI* segment below for a real world example of an AI healthcare solution that illustrates the proper approach.
🇺🇸 BTW: AI regulation is an important topic to take up with your elected representatives.
---
## Working Example: Multi-disciplinary application of AI in emergency room contexts
[**Choreo-ED**](https://choreo-ed.com/?ref=s3t.org) **\- is a new working example of a real world AI solution for healthcare, helping emergency department staff be more proactive about care, while also reducing wait times for patients with most critical needs.** The Choreo-ED solution listens to patient data, physician orders, and lab results as they are recorded in the EMR and combines this with rich historical data from a patient’s prior visits to recognize when they are likely to be admitted from the ED.
When this likelihood of admission exceeds a certain threshold, the model enters an Anticipated Decision to Admit (ADTA), indicating to the admitting team that the patient will, with high confidence, be admitted soon, and allowing them to proactively initiate the admission process.
When likelihood of admission exceeds threshold, the model enters an Anticipated Decision to Admit (ADTA), so admitting team can proactively initiate the admission process.
**What's different about this AI solution is how it was developed.** Rather than using third party foundational models, a cross disciplinary team of hospital leadership, physicians, and clinical staff worked along side the Choreo AI engineering team to refine and build the deep learning model at the center of Choreo then integrate it seamlessly into the ED workflows. This kind of careful approach, **held accountable by multiple disciplines is key to safe effective AI,** and is a model that AI regulations need to consider.
> "I get excited about this use case because it is an improvement for all the people it impacts, improved patient experience, reduced stress on the care teams, and improved patient flow." - Mitch Quinn, Choreo-ED
The solution relies on an LLM trained on Clinical and Claims data, following the same ethical AI approach Mitch Quinn pioneered for the original CarePath AI platform.
---
## This week's Change Leadership Learning Segment: [Life is a Tapestry](https://www.s3t.org/tapestry/)
*We’ve been conditioned to believe that focus, and prioritization and getting rid of the non-essentials is the way to succeed - and there's an element of truth to that. *But how you apply this principle makes all the difference.**
### Ready to learn another transformative element of the Change Leader mindset?[**Click here to dive in!**](https://www.s3t.org/tapestry/)
###
---
*Thank you for reading and sharing S3T! Have a great week!*
Ralph
### 👻Nov 1 - The Halloween-Scary Election Edition, Judges, BTC, Citizen anxiety, Quantum, Toxic cocktail...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/nov1-electionedition/
Last updated: 2024-11-01T06:42:42.000Z
### *🎧* [*Listen to this on the S3T Podcast!*](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org)
*Happy Friday! Hope you had a happy Diwali & best wishes for happiness joy and prosperity for you and your family! Welcome to the S3T podcast episode for Nov 1 - a special Halloween & Election edition. As usual, we will be catching up on all the latest emerging tech and economic developments as well as looking at the root causes of citizen anxiety. And for those of you in the Change Leadership course, We are now on week 4 of our Change Leadership Learning series, focusing on tools that increase your ability to pivot when life brings new opportunities disguised as unexpected change.*
### In this Edition of S3T:
- 📉 **Job Market Tension**: Job openings hit a low since Jan 2021, but consumer confidence is up. Contrasting economic indicators fuel mixed views on economic health.
- 💰 **Inflation Watch**: Inflation cooling suggests potential rate cuts, while some see rising Bitcoin as a hedge. Notable investors debate inflation’s trajectory and government spending’s impact.
- 🤝 **Crypto & Traditional Finance Team Up**: Visa and Coinbase enhance real-time crypto-fund access, marking progress in integrating digital and traditional financial systems.
- 🔍 **AI & Quantum Advances**: OpenAI’s ChatGPT competes with Google, Claude launches desktop, and Rice Univ. advances quantum materials—each step reshaping tech landscapes.
- 🇺🇸 **Election Anxiety Soars**: Rising election-related anxiety highlights mental health strains. Fear-based political messaging fuels stress and division among citizens.
- 📚 **Beyond Voting**: Emphasizing informed, active citizenship outside elections strengthens democracy, counters polarization, and fosters a resilient society.
- 💪 **Team Unity Strategies**: Leaders can address anxiety by fostering transparency, supporting mental health, and celebrating wins, creating a more balanced, resilient team.
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
❤️ [Click here to leave a tip](https://www.s3t.org/#/portal/support) if you'd like to help others learn about change leadership. Tips help make it possible to provide extended free trials for worthy recipients who currently lack the ability to pay for S3T learning resources.
---
## Consumer Confidence Up but Job Openings Down
[Job openings fell](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-job-openings-drop-more-than-3-12-year-low-september-2024-10-29/?utm%5Fsource=chartr&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fcampaign=chartr%5F20241030) to lowest level since Jan 2021, but [consumer confidence is sharply up](https://www.barrons.com/news/us-consumer-confidence-surges-in-october-a7ec3678?ref=s3t.org). But the latest "[Beige Book](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook202410-summary.htm)" (a distributed survey of economic conditions across the Federal Reserve's 12 districts) paints a more somber picture of the nation's economy than other indicators. Gregg Robb [examines the diverging views here](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-beige-book-continues-to-point-to-sluggish-economy-6248d06a?ref=s3t.org). The [BEAs personal income and outlays](https://www.bea.gov/?ref=s3t.org) for September (1 month lag) also show a moderating set of metrics. Some are interpreting the mix of data as a [cooling of inflation that will prompt another round of interest rate cuts](https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/traders-stick-bets-25-bps-fed-rate-cuts-nov-dec-2024-10-31/?ref=s3t.org) (next week).
[Chart courtesy of BEA](https://www.bea.gov/?ref=s3t.org)
### The longer view on inflation
[Bitcoin hits 73,600 this week](https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-hits-73-6-k-as-fundamentals-suggest-new-all-time-highs-are-programmed?ref=s3t.org) just shy of its all time high in March ($73,750), a likely indicator that long term investors are hedging against future inflation.
- The view that Gov spending will increase inflation is held by investors like Stanley Druckenmiller ("[Bipartisan fiscal recklessness is on the horizon](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stanley-druckenmiller-says-hes-shorting-u-s-bonds-and-staying-out-of-china-1fcf751e?ref=s3t.org).").
- The expectation that inflation will push Bitcoin to new all time highs is [pushed by the likes of Paul Tudor Jones](https://decrypt.co/287751/billionaire-bitcoin-bull-paul-tudor-jones-inflation?ref=s3t.org) who in 2020 wrote the [*Great Monetary Inflation*](https://www.lopp.net/pdf/BVI-Macro-Outlook.pdf?ref=s3t.org)(PDF) thesis credited with launching the subsequent Bitcoin bull cycle, and a wave of institutional investor interest in Bitcoin.
Not everyone buys this paired set of views - see this [point by point counter argument](https://realinvestmentadvice.com/can-paul-tudor-jones-and-stanley-druckenmiller-be-wrong/?ref=s3t.org) by Michael Lebowitz, who notes that **not all government spending is the same:**
- it can be unproductive & deflationary, but
- government spending can also be an important form of investment that helps fertilize and grow the economy.
Some investors as well as [prediction markets seem to be anticipating a Trump win](https://www.businessinsider.com/polymarket-election-predictions-trump-harris-pop-culture-bets-2024-10?ref=s3t.org) in the 2024 election, which has savvy investors considering how to position for a **toxic cocktail** of:
- tariffs that raise prices,
- paralyzed inflow of immigrant workers which also raise prices, and
- lopsided tax cuts that put more strain on government and household debt.
[Not everyone sees a Trump win as inevitable](https://www.ft.com/content/47c0283b-cfe6-4383-bbbb-09a617a69a76?ref=s3t.org) however. After Bezos blocked the Washington Post from endorsing Harris, the Economist - which to me has always been a right leaning financial read - [decided to endorse Harris](https://www.economist.com/leaders/2024/10/31/a-second-trump-term-comes-with-unacceptable-risks?ref=s3t.org).
Never a dull moment here in America. The special feature below looks at the perennial anxiety of citizens in a democracy.
---
In yet another example of traditional finance and crypto working together, [Visa and Coinbase are partnering](https://thedefiant.io/news/cefi/coinbase-integrates-support-for-visa-direct?ref=s3t.org) to enable real-time delivery of account funds with Visa debit cards. This is a step up from the current status quo which requires users to either use the Coinbase debit card, or use bank transfers that take longer to settle.
### AI increases foothold in Desktop Apps & Search
OpenAI's [new web search capability for ChatGPT](https://openai.com/index/introducing-chatgpt-search/?ref=s3t.org) (for paid memberships) puts it in direct competition with Google. Meanwhile Anthropic's AI assistant "Claude" is now [available as a Mac/Windows desktop app](https://techcrunch.com/2024/10/31/claude-gets-desktop-apps-and-dictation-support/?ref=s3t.org) (currently in beta).
### Quantum inches another step forward
Physicist at Rice University have reached a deeper understanding of magnetism that has the [potential to transform the materials science aspect of quantum computing](https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1063235?ref=s3t.org). See [paper here](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-53722-3.epdf?ref=s3t.org). Quantum Computing is an example of an emerging technology to keep an eye on given its possible implications for infosecurity and cryptography.
### Toward Tech-Independence: More semiconductor investments
Continuing the buildout of the US's tech independence, the Biden administration is making an [$825M investment in a semiconductor R&D facility](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-administration-selects-new-york-semiconductor-rd-facility-2024-10-31/?ref=s3t.org) near Albany NY. Getting to tech-independence isn't easy: the US's largest drone maker Skydio depends on China for parts and materials - [China just imposed sanctions on Skydio](https://www.skydio.com/blog/chinas-sanctions-on-skydio?ref=s3t.org) for selling drones to Taiwan's National Fire Agency - basically a national fire and rescue organization.
### New insights on how decision makers use algorithms
A study of how judges selectively use to bail or not to bail algorithms is yielding important new information about [how human decision makers rationalize their decisions to accept or reject the advice of algorithms](https://www.theverge.com/2024/10/30/24281924/pretrial-risk-assessment-algorithms-research?ref=s3t.org) \- sometimes in ways that might not be appropriate. The study noted a number of behavior patterns that need to be further scrutinized, and noted the sometimes judges transfer culpability to the algorithm in scenarios perceived as low risk to themselves and their reputations - in spite of higher risks to impacted individuals and the overall integrity of the justice system).
---
### 🦋Click here to go to this weeks learning segment: [Change Leadership Mindset: The Open Palm](https://www.s3t.org/the-open-palm-mindset/)
**Unleash Your Pivot Power:** Life’s best opportunities often come from unexpected change. Will you be ready? Pivot Power gives you the mindset to adapt, letting go of what’s past and embracing what’s next.
Pivot Power means releasing old plans, grievances, and regrets while being open to what’s next. It’s a mindset of curiosity and courage, rooted in a simple lesson from my father: *Hold the things of life in an open palm.* This wisdom empowers you to handle change gracefully, without letting attachments weigh you down or limit your potential.
The Open Palm Mindset is about resilience. It’s the understanding that everything we have is temporary and learning to embrace what comes and let go of what goes. It’s knowing when to pivot with life’s currents and when to persist through the work needed for growth. With this approach, you’ll find yourself prepared to navigate new career chapters, build essential connections, and showcase your value to potential employers or clients with confidence.
💡
****Your Change Leadership Learning Segment** for the week is taken from the [S3T Change Leadership Learning Series](https://www.s3t.org/change-leadership-learning-series/), a unique 23 week leadership course. You have the option of following the group schedule, or working through the material at your own pace.
###
**Dreadocracy* \- RCP Digital Mixed Media 2024
*Special US Election Segment*
## Understanding pervasive anxiety in modern US Democracy
[70% of Americans feel anxious or frustrated](https://apnews.com/article/poll-trump-harris-election-president-anxiety-frustration-a95fc81fae305728968b30ced4a2dc53?ref=s3t.org) about the 2024 Presidential election and mental health crisis lines are [preparing for a surge in contacts](https://time.com/7096438/election-stress-crisis-text-line-988/?ref=s3t.org) from individuals reaching out due to fear and depression. [*America Is Having a Panic Attack Over the Election*](https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/america-is-having-a-panic-attack-over-the-election-4b89e7c0?ref=s3t.org) is the headline for a WSJ piece this week.
> “We know calls will spike the day before and the day of the election, and people are reaching out because of anxiety, depression, and fear about the future,” - [Tia Dole, chief 988 suicide and crisis lifeline officer](https://time.com/7096438/election-stress-crisis-text-line-988/?ref=s3t.org).
### What have we done to ourselves?
Understanding the anxiety among U.S. citizens regarding elections and democracy involves examining several contributing factors:
1. **Fear Appeals in Political Communication**: Political campaigns often use fear-based messaging to mobilize voters. While effective in the short term, excessive use of fear-based messaging can lead to increased public cynicism and distrust. The [American Psychological Association](https://www.apa.org/news/apa/2020/fear-motivator-elections?ref=s3t.org) discusses how fear serves as a powerful motivator in elections. See also: This APA [comprehensive meta-analysis investigates the effectiveness of fear appeals](https://www.apa.org/pubs/journals/releases/bul-a0039729.pdf?ref=s3t.org) in influencing attitudes, intentions, and behaviors, highlighting their complex psychological impact.
2. **Media Manipulation and Misinformation**: The proliferation of misinformation and media manipulation exacerbates public fears about electoral integrity. The [Shorenstein Center Media Manipulation Casebook](https://shorensteincenter.org/new-media-manipulation-casbook/?ref=s3t.org) provides a deep dive into common tactics disinformation campaigns influence use to public perception.
3. **Impact of Emotional Rhetoric**: The strategic use of emotional appeals, particularly fear, in political rhetoric can significantly affect public opinion and behavior. The study "[Fear, Hope, and COVID-19: Emotional Elite Rhetoric and Its Impact on the Public](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/pops.12831?ref=s3t.org)" explores this dynamic.
4. **Public Perception of Threats**: Research indicates that fear appeals in political rhetoric about terrorism can shape public perception and policy support. The article "[Fear Appeals in Political Rhetoric about Terrorism: An Analysis of Speeches by George W. Bush](https://www.jstor.org/stable/20447182?ref=s3t.org)" provides an analysis of this phenomenon in an earlier era.
5. **Not alone: Citizen Anxiety is not a uniquely American phenomenon,** but there are differences between the anxieties experienced in different nations. This [Harvard paper](https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/hall/files/hall2013%5Fanxiety.pdf?ref=s3t.org) takes a comparative approach that reviews the anxiety citizens feel in different democracies and the different and common reasons for this anxiety.
These resources offer a comprehensive understanding of how fear-based messaging in political communication can influence public anxiety and perceptions of democracy. **But how to cope?**
❤️ If you or someone you know is in crisis - reach out immediately to the [988 Lifeline](https://988lifeline.org/?ref=s3t.org). Whether you're facing election related anxiety, mental health struggles, emotional distress, alcohol or drug use concerns, or just need someone to talk to, 988 Lifeline's caring counselors are here for you. You are not alone.
## Reframing elections: The full set of citizen responsibilities
Whether you are facing election anxiety, or any of the other anxieties of life, taking constructive positive action can be a healthy way to manage and tame anxiety. Regardless of what you hope will happen on Election Day, there can be a certain comfort in knowing that **the opportunities for doing good, and making good things happen, will continue to exist in abundance after Election Day, just as they do right now.**
We often think and talk about voting as if were the single duty of citizens. But we have more responsibilities besides just voting. This doesn't diminish the importance of voting, or of elections. But it does call us to be involved in non-election years in the constant responsibilities of citizenship:
- **Information literacy:** Taking the time to understand issues rather than parrot narratives about them. This means spending more time with baseline information and less time with narrative spinners.
- **Active problem solving:** Getting involved in your community, to give yourself first hand exposure to the challenges of our time and how they are playing out in Main streets and backroads, not just on Wall St and private jets.
- **Bringing others along:** Help others learn how to be more informed and involved.
**Why this kind of constant work and learning is so vital:** We may think of elections as point in time events but in reality they are culminations and days of reckoning on previous work done or not. We think of so many things rising or falling based solely on this one day. But what does occur is due to long periods of previous work & investment - or lack thereof.
Citizens who take these responsibilities seriously are less vulnerable to being swept up and misled by political narratives and personality cults. **They don't need a hero to save them - they know they are the heroes** and they see the results of their efforts. They and the country are more successful thanks to their diligent learning and work.
These highly engaged citizens also are less likely to fall into extreme division and polarization. Working together on issues gives a familiarity and sense of camaraderie that unifies a group of people. Continuous collaboration and learning together provides a setting where people are more likely to adjust their viewpoints and opinions as they gain first hand knowledge of the ins and outs of key issues.
It would be nice one day to see elections where the substantial debates are anchored in the actual realities of the difficult complex challenges we face. Where there is a clear-eyed discussion of tradeoffs. **In the 21st century successful democracies will be more like study halls and less like cafeteria food fights.**
### When was the last time you changed your mind on a significant issue?
Citizens in a high anxiety democracy or season tend to focus a lot on differences of opinion, and frustrations over the seeming inability to get others to change their minds. *What are they thinking??? How can they possibly vote for that person???* We ask in frustration.
**But it's important to reflect on the times when we ourselves had a change of heart about an important issue.** What allowed that to happen? What was the setting?
It probably was in a supportive setting that allowed you to reflect and absorb new perspectives gained over time without feeling insulted or threatened. This change of mind also likely occurred in settings that allowed you to encounter new information first hand and empirically.
## Promoting unity and managing anxiety within a team: strategies for leaders
### 1\. **Promote Psychological Safety and Transparent Communication**
- **Action**: Cultivate a culture where team members feel safe to express concerns and ask questions without fear of judgment or negative repercussions. Regularly share relevant updates on projects and organizational changes, and provide open forums for team members to voice their thoughts.
- **Impact**: This transparency builds trust, reduces uncertainty, and fosters a strong sense of unity, as everyone feels informed and valued.
### 2\. **Encourage Mental Health and Resilience Resources**
- **Action**: Offer accessible mental health resources, such as therapy sessions, mental health days, and resilience-building workshops on topics like stress management and mindfulness. Normalize the use of these resources by discussing mental health openly.
- **Impact**: Supporting mental health proactively ensures team members feel cared for, helping them manage anxiety and build resilience, which contributes to overall team well-being and productivity.
### 3\. **Model Positivity and Recognize Team Contributions**
- **Action**: Lead by example with a solution-oriented attitude, and celebrate team wins frequently—whether big or small. Recognize individual and collective contributions regularly.
- **Impact**: Positivity and appreciation boost morale, unify the team around shared goals, and keep anxiety in check by reinforcing a constructive, supportive environment.
These core practices address mental health, unity, and anxiety management, fostering a balanced, resilient, and focused team.
---
Thank you for reading and sharing S3T! Have a great weekend and a great week ahead.
Ralph
### Oct 25 AI Natl Security Memo, AZ chips, IMF reform, Surprising link between success & contentment
URL: https://www.s3t.org/oct-25-ai-natl-security-memo-az-chips-imf-reform-surprising-link-between-success-contentment/
Last updated: 2024-10-29T22:38:41.000Z
### *🎧* [*Listen to this on the S3T Podcast!*](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org)
Note: this edition did not publish as scheduled due to a technical issue, which we believe has been resolved. Apologies for the late delivery.
### In this Edition of S3T:
- 🌍 **Mixed global outlook**: US shows strength, but China's economic struggles impact global growth and oil prices.
- 💰 **Inflation concerns**: 10-year Treasury yields rise as investors anticipate future inflation, possibly tied to policy changes.
- 📉 **Global debt crisis**: Calls for IMF reform amid growing global debt, led by key economists.
- 🏭 **Arizona chipmakers excel**: TSMC’s Arizona plant surpasses Taiwan's chip production quality, producing for Apple.
- 🤖 **AI in national security**: White House issues guidelines to manage military AI risks, amid US-China AI competition.
- 🚑 **AI in healthcare**: Infinitus.AI secures funding to streamline insurance processes between healthcare providers and payers.
- 😊 **Contentment fuels success**: True success comes from steady progress, alertness, and learning with a mindset of contentment, not restless discontent.
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
❤️ [Click here to leave a tip](https://www.s3t.org/#/portal/support) if you'd like to help others learn about change leadership. Tips help make it possible to provide extended free trials for worthy recipients who currently lack the ability to pay for S3T learning resources.
---
### Mixed Economic Outlooks - US vs World
A mixed picture again this week, with strong numbers from the US, and deteriorating conditions elsewhere and some concerns about the future. Highlights from [Deloitte's global economic update](https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/economy/global-economic-outlook/weekly-update.html?ref=s3t.org):
- China's economic weakness continues to weigh on the global economic outlook, impacting oil prices most recently.
- 10 year Treasury yields are back up, with the [breakeven rate up sharply](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YIE?ref=s3t.org). Some believe this is due to investors expecting higher inflation in coming years.
The prospect of higher inflation is worrisome, likely tied to the odds of a 2nd Trump administration with more inflationary tariffs and tax policies, as noted by this [group of Nobel prize winning economists](https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/25247867-23-nobel-economists-sign-letter-saying-harris-agenda-vastly-better-for-us-economy?ref=s3t.org). (See also [CNN story](https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/23/politics/nobel-prize-economists-harris-economic-plan/index.html?ref=s3t.org) and [Harris economic proposals](https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2024/08/politics/kamala-harris-key-issues-dg/?ref=s3t.org)).
**Global context:** Global debt is going to force the International Monetary Fund (IMF) into [reform or irrelevance](https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/imf-reform-must-redistribute-voting-shares-and-depoliticize-operational-decisions-by-raghuram-g-rajan-2024-10?ref=s3t.org) argues a [former governor of the reserve bank of India](https://www.project-syndicate.org/columnist/raghuram-g-rajan?ref=s3t.org), who now serves as chief economist of the International Monetary Fund. See also [this call for IMF reform](https://www.cgdev.org/publication/imf-must-reform?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=The%20Committee%20identifies%20three%20critical,e.g.%2C%20global%20liquidity%20shocks%3B%20%28) published 2023\.
---
### US Arizona Chipmakers Exceeds Taiwan Quality
Taiwan Semiconductor's initial production yields (the percentage of usable chips coming out of its fabrication process) at its **new Arizona factory** is *exceeding* the Taiwan based factories by 4% as reported by [MacDailyNews](https://macdailynews.com/2024/10/24/major-apple-supplier-tsmcs-american-chip-production-yields-surpass-taiwans/?ref=s3t.org) and [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-24/tsmc-s-arizona-chip-production-yields-surpass-taiwan-s-a-win-for-us-push?ref=s3t.org).
> “We now expect volume production of our first fab to start in the beginning of 2025, and are confident to **deliver the same level of manufacturing quality and reliability from our fab in Arizona as from our fabs in Taiwan**,” - Rick Cassidy President US Division of TSMC.
Quartz reported that [TSMC's Arizona plant is making chips for Apple](https://qz.com/tsmc-make-a16-chips-apple-arizona-fab-ai-taiwan-semis-1851673965?ref=s3t.org).
### National Security Memo on AI
This week the White House issued the first [National Security Memo on AI](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/10/24/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-outlines-coordinated-approach-to-harness-power-of-ai-for-u-s-national-security/?ref=s3t.org) alongside a [framework](https://ai.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/NSM-Framework-to-Advance-AI-Governance-and-Risk-Management-in-National-Security.pdf?ref=s3t.org) (PDF) guiding military use and management of risks posed by AI technologies. The guidance puts guardrails around the use of AI for military and government applications.
The story as reported by [the South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3283702/us-unveil-ai-national-security-memo-avoid-chinas-strategic-surprise-and-cut-risks?ref=s3t.org) (based in Hong Kong) focuses on US-China competition in AI, specifically the desire to avoid a "strategic surprise."
### Character.AI tragedy highlights need for AI product controls
A grief stricken family is [suing Character.AI and Google](https://www.reuters.com/legal/mother-sues-ai-chatbot-company-characterai-google-sued-over-sons-suicide-2024-10-23/?ref=s3t.org) over the death of their son. The teen committed suicide after becoming attached to a virtual character generated by the Character.AI platform. The case alleges that the Character.AI chatbot engaged in sensitive and suggestive content including suicide and sexual themes - and underscores the risks of publishing unmanaged chatbots.
### AI as communication liaison between Payer and Provider
Health insurers can expect more calls from Infinitus.AI a new service that [calls insurers on behalf of healthcare providers](https://www.infinitus.ai/pricing/?ref=s3t.org) in hopes of streamlining Benefit verification, prior authorization and prescription follow ups. The startup just [secured a Series C funding of $51.5M from A16Z](https://pulse2.com/infinitus-systems-51-5-million-series-c-raised-to-automate-manual-healthcare-phone-calls/?ref=s3t.org) and Memorial Hermann Health Systems. **Important to understand liability provisions in contracts of this nature.**
##
---
### Click here to go to this weeks learning segment: [Change Leadership Mindset: Contentment](https://www.s3t.org/mindset-contentment/)
*Dive in and learn counterintuitive reasons why contentment is key to success, and how you can cultivate a contentment mindset. S*uccess - being able to hit your goals successfully - becomes easier when you think, plan, work and learn with a mindset of *contentment,* NOT discontent.
**Your Change Leadership Learning Segment** for the week is taken from the [S3T Change Leadership Learning Series](https://www.s3t.org/change-leadership-learning-series/), a unique 23 week leadership course. You have the option of following the group schedule, or working through the material at your own pace.
## Noisemakers and Navigators: A note about this week's cover.
##
This week's cover is a DALL-E generated image (my prompt asked for 'the style of a polaroid photo') that depicts an analogy that helps me understand interesting contrast I've seen in American politics.
In my work I have the privilege of meeting amazing change leaders who are diligently working to understand and solve the urgent complicated issues of our time, across tech, finance, healthcare, government and other sectors. I also encounter others who are not as engaged but have rigid misinformed biases. The contrast between the two is striking.
I kept trying to think of an analogy to describe what I was seeing, and describe it in a way that would encourage people to be engaged, learning directly from navigating the challenges of our world, rather than parroting politically motivated narratives, memes and noise. I started thinking about a canyon with groups of people standing on the left and right rims of the canyon yelling insult and slogans at each other. Far below, a wild river full of rocky rapids rages through the canyon, and groups of brave souls in boats are paddling and struggling desperately to navigate the rapids. In this visual, we see two worlds: the voices on the rim of the canyon, shouting, debating, entrenched in their positions, and the ones down in the rapids, struggling to stay afloat amid raging waters.
The contrast captures our national political discourse: a divided crowd caught in the noise of oversimplification, apparently obvious to the group far below them, learning first hand what works and what doesn't work as they navigate the raging waters of messy real world problems.
Each of us has a choice:
- Be part of the group is working desperately to navigate and solve the challenges of our world.
- Remain far removed from the problems, locked in arguments with opponents, saying clueless things in loud emphatic ways.
Noisemaker or Navigator.
### Oct 18 Wage Growth, Inflation outlook, Digital Health, Sec 230, Crypto Abstraction, Defining Change Leadership
URL: https://www.s3t.org/oct-18-wage-growth-inflation-outlook-digital-health-sec-230-crypto-abstraction-defining-change-leadership/
Last updated: 2024-10-18T05:04:22.000Z
### *🎧* [*Listen to this on the S3T Podcast!*](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org)
###
In this Edition of S3T:
- 📈 **Wage growth outpaces inflation**: Average salary grew by 4.4% in 2023, surpassing inflation at 3.4%, boosting consumer confidence.
- 💼 **Infrastructure investments benefit GOP districts**: Republican districts received 4x more funding from the Inflation Reduction Act despite opposition, fueling job creation.
- 🏥 **Digital health investment shift**: US digital health deals declined in Q3 2024 as investors explore opportunities outside the US, indicating a shift in focus.
- 🔗 **AI and crypto convergence**: Major players like Larry Fink highlight the potential of blockchain to enhance AI-powered analytics and reshape financial infrastructure.
- 🔐 **Crypto abstraction for usability**: New design trends in crypto aim to simplify the user experience, hiding complex elements like gas fees to mirror Web2 apps.
- 🖥️ **Section 230 debate**: Calls to update Section 230 focus on balancing platform accountability for harmful content with protecting free speech online.
- 🚀 **Change leadership focus**: Learning series emphasizes the importance of prioritization, execution, and empowerment in driving effective change leadership.
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
❤️ [Click here to leave a tip](https://www.s3t.org/#/portal/support) if you'd like to help others learn about change leadership. Tips help make it possible to provide extended free trials for worthy recipients who currently lack the ability to pay for S3T learning resources.
---
## Wage growth vs. inflation numbers and other good news
[Markets set new records this week](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/futures-rise-chip-stocks-rally-after-tsmc-results-economic-data-focus-2024-10-17/?ref=s3t.org) as monthly retails figures beat forecasts, and the Economist issued a report titled "[*The American economy has left other rich countries in the dust*](https://www.economist.com/special-report/2024/10/14/the-american-economy-has-left-other-rich-countries-in-the-dust?ref=s3t.org) ...with a brazen subtitle: "Expect that to continue."
The average salary grew by 4.4% in 2023 while inflation as averaged by the Consumer Price Index grew 3.4%. For this and more figures including averages state by state see [USA Today's aggregation of Bureau of Labor Statistics page](https://www.usatoday.com/money/blueprint/business/hr-payroll/average-salary-us/?ref=s3t.org).
This [BBC piece points to several reasons](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68203820?ref=s3t.org) for the continuing good news: noting our flexible labor market, energy exports, and robust immigration.
Government investment has also played a role: as noted recently, the Inflation Reduction Act sent $Billions in infrastructure investments and jobs to congressional districts across the US - with an interesting twist: [Republican districts received 4x more $$ than Democratic districts](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-opinion-biden-ira-sends-green-energy-investment-republican-districts/?ref=s3t.org) in spite of the fact that Republican representatives unanimously voted against IRA.
Related: Greg Larkin and team study the evolution of dependence on government - [county by county across the US 1970 to present](https://eig.org/great-transfermation/?ref=s3t.org).
### Inflation outlook connected to the election
[A Wall St Journal quarterly survey of economists](https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/economists-say-inflation-deficits-will-be-higher-under-trump-than-harris-0365588e?ref=s3t.org) has found that most economists believe that inflation, interest rates and deficits will be worse under a Republican administration than under a Democratic one. This may seem counterintuitive to many so I wanted to dig into the underlying reasons.
[Paul Krugman post on X Oct 14](https://x.com/paulkrugman/status/1845802606179856888?ref=s3t.org)
One reason noted in the article and its accompanying video: Trump's tariffs have proven to be counterproductive, causing prices to go up ...even prices of the US made products. Why? Because the rising prices drive demand for cheaper products (and because companies tend to set raise prices when they see competitors doing the same).
The accompanying video notes that the tarriffs did prompt some foreign companies (like Samsung) to build factories in the US which then created jobs. But when you factor in the additional costs from higher prices, the math still didn't work...each job created cost the taxpayers a multiple of that job's annual salary.
See also: Financial Times International [Inflation and Interest Rates tracker](https://www.ft.com/content/088d3368-bb8b-4ff3-9df7-a7680d4d81b2?ref=s3t.org)
---
### Healthcare: Keep an eye on this
CBInsights says, the [US share of digital health deals dropped sharply in Q3 2024](https://research.cbinsights.com/reusable-rockets?ref=s3t.org) as investors become more interested in healthcare opportunities outside the US. I'm honestly not sure anyone *yet* has a clear view on that this means, but we have seen:
- the digital health investment theme run its course,
- "mass extinction event" among startups, as noted by Tom Loverro
- failure to make much significant progress on making healthcare more cost effective or affordable.
So is this simply US investors dropping out of digital health? Or is this US investors seeing real opportunities in other regions that are actually not available in the US? Let's see what we learn in the days and weeks ahead.
---
### AI Crypto Convergence for Investors
As [noted by NLW this week](https://blockworks.co/podcast/thebreakdown/5e46a42c-8b54-11ef-8a68-43f8d105aa73?ref=s3t.org), Larry Fink (Black Rock) joined those who see a convergence between crypto and AI, saying **blockchains can add value to AI powered analytics and give investors much better data** than they have now.
In yet another indicator of the coming change to the world's financial architecture, [Maya Zahavi chimed in](https://x.com/mayazi/status/1845958103616851989?ref=s3t.org) saying Fink is positioning crypto "as a conduit with AI for a different financial infrastructure."
---
### Permissionless Crypto Conference Theme: Crypto Abstraction
As noted by the Bankless Podcast, X commentator Shaa.eth shared [5 Takeaways from Permissionless](https://x.com/shaaa256/status/1844838775278776746?ref=s3t.org), one of the larger crypto conferences Oct 9-11\. (See Permissionless site [here](https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii?ref=s3t.org)). The 2 that caught my attention were once again, AI, and also a new one "crypto abstraction."
**Crypto abstraction** refers to a design approach that intentionally shields the user experience from the unique transaction elements of crypto (for example paying "gas" fees for routine transactions). This marks a continuation of crypto's maturity toward true usability.
Most of the DeFi or Web3 apps I've used have had a clunky user experience. And for a long time the industry seemed to be content to just let customers "deal with it." I noticed a shift in 2023, when sessions at Eth Denver seemed to have a recurring theme of improved customer experience and ease of use. Now, the new trend appears to be, design the app to work like Web 2 apps and just basically hide the crypto aspect from the user.
---
### Rethinking Section 230
Originally intended to promote the growth of the Internet by protecting platforms from lawsuits over third-party content, Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act of 1996 is being reconsidered.
Critics including concerned parents whose children have been impacted, are charging that big tech companies are evading even reasonable responsibility, putting profit over customer safety.
They have a point, as repeatedly witnessed in the family tragedies recounted in this [long and heartbreaking read](https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2024/10/07/social-media-mental-health-suicide-crisis-teens?ref=s3t.org).
> "Zuckerberg...personally rejected a request for some eighty engineers to insure well-being and safety...the additional staff would have cost Meta 'about fifty million dollars in a quarter when it earned $9.2 billion.'” - [New Yorker](https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2024/10/07/social-media-mental-health-suicide-crisis-teens?ref=s3t.org)
The fears of 1996 - that a promising technology would be snuffed out by legal liability - should be completely put to rest by a casual glance at the profits of today's social media companies.
Change Leaders who want to advocate for updating Section 230 may want to consider the following proposals to address concerns about online content while preserving internet innovation:
- **Carve-outs for harmful content**: Narrowing Section 230 protections by removing immunity for platforms that knowingly allow harmful content like terrorism, child exploitation, or illegal drug sales.
- **Algorithm accountability**: Limiting protections for platforms that amplify harmful content through recommendation algorithms, holding them liable for resulting harm.
- **Duty of care**: Requiring platforms to take reasonable steps to prevent harm while retaining some Section 230 protections.
- **Transparency and reporting**: Mandating platforms to be more transparent about their content moderation practices and impose stricter reporting requirements.
These ideas can be shaped to strike a balance between protecting free speech online and addressing growing concerns about harmful content, particularly in the context of mental health and societal harm.
This issue is tied to the broader issue of our understanding of free speech - its purpose, and where we draw the line between beneficial free speech vs harmful noise and misinformation, and between government censorship vs preserving the ability of communities and individuals to protect themselves and their children from unwanted or harmful content.
---
### ***Change Leadership Learning Series - Learning Segment #2 :***
## 🗺️ Defining Change Leadership
*Welcome to your weekly learning segment on Change Leadership!*
Looking at the world through the lens of change leadership will give you better ways to:
- learn,
- prioritize,
- execute,
- empower others,
and above all: demonstrate top-tier effectiveness and maximize your impact.
So what exactly is *change leadership* and what do we mean by it? Why is this phrase so important and how is it different from other similar-sounding concepts - like change management?
In Change Leadership Learning Segment #2 you will learn **how to define change leadership**, and you will learn **how to measure the success of a change leadership initiative**.
### [Click here to access Change Leadership Learning Segment #2 now.](https://www.s3t.org/defining-change-leadership/)
---
*Thank you for reading and sharing S3T! Have a wonderful week!*
[](https://ghost.org/help/using-the-editor/?ref=s3t.org)
### Oct 11 - Global Depop, Big Math, Corporate welfare, Palmyra, 1st Nobel for AI, Change Leadership
URL: https://www.s3t.org/oct-11-2/
Last updated: 2024-10-11T04:17:09.000Z
### *🎧* [*Listen to this on the S3T Podcast!*](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org)
###
In this Edition of S3T:
- **🚀 Change Leadership Learning Series - Segment #1:** Understanding *why* drives faster learning and deeper value. Learn why Change Leadership is the most 21st crucial skillset of the 21st Century.
- 🇺🇸 **US Economic Strength:** The US economy added 254K jobs in September, surpassing forecasts, with a healthy 4% rise in average hourly earnings YoY. But consumer sentiment is driven by other factors.
- 📈 **Stock Market Highs:** Dow & S&P 500 hit new record highs, reflecting economic resilience in the US.
- 🌍 **Global Economic Struggles:** Germany and Saudi Arabia are near recession, while venture capital startup exits are at their lowest since 2009.
- 👶 **Global Depopulation Trends:** Many regions face declining birth rates, with Asia and Europe significantly below replacement levels.
- 🌱 **US & Sub-Saharan Africa Exception:** The US resists the global depopulation trend through higher fertility rates and skilled immigration; Sub-Saharan Africa faces challenges in productivity and health.
- 🧬 **AI Breakthroughs:** AlphaFold 3 won the 2024 Chemistry Nobel Prize, aiding in protein structure prediction and driving new research and job creation.
- 🌍 **AI Expansion:** OpenAI's international growth includes new offices, reflecting a strategic focus on regulatory challenges and global reach.
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
❤️ [Click here to leave a tip](https://www.s3t.org/#/portal/support) if you'd like to help others learn about change leadership. Tips help make it possible to provide extended free trials for worthy recipients who currently lack the ability to pay for S3T learning resources.
---
## US is a bright spot in the world economy
The [US economy added 254K jobs in September](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/04/september-2024-us-jobs-report.html?ref=s3t.org), way above forecast of 150K while the headline inflation rate came in at 2.4%. Meanwhile average hourly earnings is up a [healthy 4% over this time last yea](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us%5Faverage%5Fhourly%5Fearnings?ref=s3t.org)r and this week the Dow & SP500 [hit new record highs](https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-100924?ref=s3t.org).
US Average Hourly Earnings up 3.97% YoY. [Courtesy of Ycharts](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us%5Faverage%5Fhourly%5Fearnings?ref=s3t.org)
See also [BLS Average Hourly Earnings by Industry](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/employment-and-average-hourly-earnings-by-industry-bubble.htm?ref=s3t.org).
The rest of the world is not faring so well: Germany is [slipping further into a recession](https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/germany-braces-for-recession-in-2024/?ref=s3t.org), even Saudi Arabia is [barely above recession territory](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/01/saudi-arabia-slashes-growth-forecasts-sees-wider-budget-deficits.html?ref=s3t.org).
### Can the good news in the US economy translate into more positive consumer sentiment?
I think it can and will if we can take more thoughtful approaches to evolving the economy and enabling financial innovation. Consumer sentiment measures are [expected to slightly improve](https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/ppi-data-and-michigan-consumer-sentiment-to-drive-markets-friday-93CH-3658465?ref=s3t.org) (scheduled for Fri 10am Oct 11).
If you've been reading S3T you're familiar with the key pieces of feedback that leading economists, financial innovators and founders have regarding the need for more equitable finance, better economic measures and more effective ways to help families and individuals.
### Capitalism for working families, socialism for corporations & the rich
In short: If you're in the upper 5 or 10% of wealth holders, the current status quo cradles and protects you in a wonderfully socialist welfare state specially tuned to meet all the needs and preferences of the rich. If you're the other 95% you get to live under a strict regimen of capitalism.
Zero sum game, full on competitive capitalism:
- Families hoping to live in safe neighborhoods have to compete with private equity firms buying houses as investments.
- Public school families compete with charter school families for education,
- Voters compete with giant companies for the ear of their elected representatives
Unfortunately, in America today, we’ve flipped things:
- We have socialism for companies—corporate bailouts, tax breaks, subsidies
- We force families to live in an underfunded Hunger-Games-version of capitalism that sputters along on what's left after the rich have taken their share...where every aspect of survival has an unaffordable price.
We shield corporations from failure, while leaving families to fend for themselves in a ruthless market, as their household medical debt hits all time highs and retirement ages push back further and further. One group gets boost after boost into higher and higher echelons of wealth, while the other group is taught that even hoping for an equal playing field is shameful and un-American.
This is something we all should be learning about, voting about and talking about with our elected officials before and after the election.
---
### VC Startup Exits worst since 2009
70% of exits (where investor are supposed to realize the return on their original investment) have been negative since 2022, sharply down from the previous average of 58% [per Pitchbook's Q3 analysis](https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/startup-exit-loss-moic?ref=s3t.org).
This appears to be the ongoing aftermath of the "mass extinction" correction as the era of easy money came to a close. The general consensus seems to be that during that time, a lot of startups got funded that in ordinary times might not have been funded. And now that's starting to unwind.
---
## Global depopulation trends worsen but there are 2 exceptions (the US is 1 of them)
Economists have long noted the potential for world population growth to start to decline somewhere in near the 22nd century [based on UN analysis of long term population trends](https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/insights/baby-bust-could-population-decline-spell-end-economic-growth?ref=s3t.org). Now this [new Foreign Affairs piece](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/world/age-depopulation?ref=s3t.org), Nicholas Eberstadt takes a more recent look at the trends:
- Two thirds of the world live in sub-replacement nations - where the birth rate is not keeping up with the death rate.
- Asian nations are significantly below replacement rates: 50% below in China, 65% in South Korea.
- Latin American birth rates are plunging as well: 1.8 births per woman in 2024 - a sharp drop from previous times.
- Russia: below replacement rate since the 1960s, with 17m more deaths than births since the Soviet Union collapse.
- The EU averages 30% below replacement rates.
The lone exceptions: Sub Saharan Africa and the US. The US is so far resisting the depopulation trend overtaking much of the rest of the world due to 2 factors:
- Comparatively high fertility levels for a rich nation higher than most Asian and all European states.
- Steady inflows of skilled immigrants from restaurant workers to IT engineers.
The primary challenges for these 2 exceptions:
- Sub Saharan Africa - worker upskilling & productivity along with health system improvements needed for basic population sustenance.
- US - national unity & improved teamwork needed to drive continued innovation leadership
UN Global Birth Trends Dip Below Replacement Rate. [Courtesy of Foreign Affairs](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/world/age-depopulation?ref=s3t.org)
More learning: [Edward Conrad curates global population trend materials](https://www.edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/fertility-is-declining-globally-in-all-of-the-worlds-15-largest-economies-fertility-is-under-the-replacement-rate-theeconomist/?view=detail&ref=s3t.org)
---
AlphaFold 3 Structural Prediction. [Courtesy of DeepMind](https://blog.google/technology/ai/google-deepmind-isomorphic-alphafold-3-ai-model/?ref=s3t.org#life-molecules)
## Alphafold wins Nobel prize and illustrates positive AI outcome
The [2024 Chemistry Nobel prize was awarded for an AI breakthrough](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-03214-7?ref=s3t.org) \- a first.
- The AI model is trained on the libraries of protein data including the [Protein Data Bank](https://www.rcsb.org/?ref=s3t.org).
- Has given researchers an irreplaceable tool for predicting protein structures and unlocking new insights for safe vaccines and treatments, and even designing entirely new proteins.
In addition researchers note the breakthrough has **helped to create *more* jobs,** rather than eliminate them. Explore further: [Google DeepMind's AlphaFold page](https://blog.google/technology/ai/google-deepmind-isomorphic-alphafold-3-ai-model/?ref=s3t.org#life-molecules).
## AI for real world tasks - smaller competitors
[Writer's Palmyra X 004](https://venturebeat.com/ai/writers-palmyra-x-004-takes-the-lead-in-ai-function-calling-surpassing-tech-giants/?ref=s3t.org) takes a (temporary?) lead in the competition for AI External Function Calling - where an AI agent interacts with external systems or tools to accomplish real world tasks. Notable:
- Palmyra's is a *smaller* model (150b parameters) - suggesting there is plenty of room in this competition for smaller players.
- The model is available via several access options including API and AWS Sagemaker.
Related: Track the competition for External Function Calling on the [Berkeley Function-Calling Leaderboard](https://gorilla.cs.berkeley.edu/leaderboard.html?ref=s3t.org).
### OpenAI positions for international growth
[OpenAI announces new offices in 5 locations](https://www.maginative.com/article/openai-expands-global-footprint-with-new-offices-in-five-cities/?ref=s3t.org): NY, Seattle, Paris, Brussels and Singapore. 2 more locations in Europe (they are already in London and Dublin) is interesting given the advanced regulatory frameworks coming out of the EU.
### AI & Big Math
Terrence Tao recently gave [this talk about the potential of human-AI collaboration in frontier math](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=%5FsTDSO74D8Q&ref=s3t.org) (Youtube) - in part by transforming the process writing and verifying formal proofs.
[Courtesy of Oxford Mathematics & Youtube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=%5FsTDSO74D8Q&ref=s3t.org)
---
### ***Change Leadership Learning Series - Learning Segment #1 :***
## 🗺️ Why Change Leadership is the most important skillset of the 21st century
*Welcome to your weekly learning segment on Change Leadership! Today we are starting with an important foundation: The WHY of change leadership.*
### Need to know why
In my experience helping people learn new skills—whether transitioning to new ones or upgrading old ones—those who understood *why* it mattered always learned faster and gained more value. **People who aren't convinced of the importance and relevance of something will take longer to learn it, and longer to get value from it.** So for our first learning segment we want to convey why change leadership is so important.
### What you'll learn in this first learning segment:
- Change Leadership is the most important skillset of the 21st century, because the world is accelerating, the stakes are higher, and unintentional or misguided change can have devastating impacts.
- The world needs leaders who are committed to learning how to drive intentional beneficial change in the context of the 21st century. This calls for a blend of expertise (we talk about what that blend is)
- Not all change is good. There are different kinds of change. Much of the change occurring today is unwanted, or bringing unwanted consequences. How does beneficial change happen? (we'll cover that)
- Change leadership skills are critical for driving intentional change on every level - change on a personal level, organizational change, as well as macro / national / global change.
## 🚀 [Ready? Go here to start Learning Segment #1 ](https://www.s3t.org/why-change-leadership-is-the-most-important-skill-of-the-21st-century/)
[View entire curriculum here](https://www.s3t.org/change-leadership-learning-series/).
---
### Are you in? S3T Members are on an exciting journey to level up their change leadership skills! [Join us by signing up for your 30 Day free trial here](https://www.s3t.org/what-is-change-leadership/)!
> 1000 nudges from different people and influences can create good momentum. Are you nudging others toward better things?
### 🦄 Oct 4 - Fake unicorns, failing giants, supercycles, nuclear AI, IPO pendulum
URL: https://www.s3t.org/oct-4-fake-unicorns-failing-giants-supercycles-nuclear-ai-ipo-pendulum-2/
Last updated: 2024-10-04T04:25:23.000Z
**Welcome to your S3T Edition and Learning Package for the week!** Get comfortable, focused and ready for a great reading and learning experience! Start reading here or *🎧* [*Listen to this on the S3T Podcast!*](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org)
### In this Edition of S3T:
- 📉 **Economic Concerns Persist**: Inflation is at 2.53% with falling interest rates, but past loans still burden many with high borrowing costs. Confusion about Powellomics vs. Bidenomics dominates economic discourse.
- 🏛️ **Fed Independence & Inflation**: The Federal Reserve operates independently, but its inflation measures often don’t match the real struggles families face with necessities.
- 🗳️ **VP Debate from right, center, and left:** Varying interpretations of the debate, but similar open questions that could swing votes. Economic issues remain a central concern in all perspectives.
- 🏠 **Housing Supercycle**: Housing prices may keep rising due to demographics and falling interest rates, challenging affordability despite political changes.
- 💼 **CVS Struggles**: CVS considers splitting its retail and insurance units amid competition and missed opportunities, spotlighting the difficulties of large healthcare transformations.
- ⚡ **AI & Energy Concerns**: AI’s growing demand is driving discussions around nuclear energy, amid concerns about the future power needs of AI technology.
- 💰 **IPO Resurgence**: IPOs are making a comeback, driven by Private Equity woes and high interest rates, but many Unicorn valuations (85%) are seen as inflated.
- 🚀 **AI Regulation & Growth Challenges**: AI startups grow fast but require heavy capital, with concerns about the balance between revenue and costs, as seen in OpenAI’s financial projections. Regulatory uncertainty also looms, as shown by the veto of California's AI Safety bill.
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
❤️ [Click here to leave a tip](https://www.s3t.org/#/portal/support) if you'd like to help others learn about change leadership. Tips help make it possible to provide extended free trials for worthy recipients who currently lack the ability to pay for S3T learning resources. Tips are processed securely via S3T's Stripe account.
---
## Election & economy sentiment through the lens of the VP Debate
[Inflation is at 2.53%](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us%5Finflation%5Frate?ref=s3t.org) and interest rates are falling, but changes to monetary policy can last a long time. Many who took out loans over the last two years will still have to carry heavy borrowing costs. Economic concerns remain a key topic, though the in both VP debate and in the continuing national dialogue it is apparent that few understand the [difference between Powellomics vs Bidenomics](https://www.haver.com/articles/powellomics-not-bidenomics-caused-the-2021-22-surge-in-inflation?ref=s3t.org):
- The Federal Reserve acts independently of the White House. Their narrow definition of inflation does not reflect the actual lived experience of families struggling afford necessities.
- The Federal Reserves recent campaign to combat inflation as they define it may on paper look like a win, but in reality, many economist believe it will have done little good for families and small businesses.
- Biden did not invent inflation as some narratives seem to imply. The inflation problem has been with us for decades, spurred on by players from across the political spectrum.
I watched the VP debate and then analyzed the media commentary immediately after and the social media reactions the next morning. Here are my views on what the right, center and left appear to be taking away from this debate, their likes and dislikes and *the open questions that still could influence their votes.*
### Maintaining organizational unity & focus in an election year
In today’s climate, it's essential for leaders to provide reassurance and foster a positive environment. Here are key messages - ways to think and talk with your teams - to address election anxiety, ensure inclusion, and inspire teamwork:
1. **Promote Unity and Collaboration:** Emphasize that while voting is crucial, the real work begins after the election. The team’s collective efforts to solve problems, serve customers, and improve communities are what make lasting impact. Collaboration will lead to greater results than any individual effort.
2. **Ensure Psychological Safety:** Create an environment where open, respectful dialogue is encouraged. Staff should feel safe to express their concerns and ideas without fear. Make it clear that threats or intimidation will not be tolerated—fostering mutual respect is key to building an inclusive team.
3. **Focus on Shared Purpose:** Reinforce the organization’s mission to solve real-world problems for customers and support community well-being. A clear focus on shared goals brings everyone together, motivating the team to work as one.
4. **Engage and Overcome Together:** Find problems that matter, unite with like-minded colleagues, and work together to bring about positive change. When people collaborate, the impact is magnified, leading to meaningful benefits for the organization and the community.
### Change Leadership Mindset: Building a new kind of strength
When we work together to ensure everyone is safer, healthier, and more prosperous, we build a new kind of strength—one that can overcome any threats and challenges the world presents. Together, we create lasting resilience and positive change for all.
---
Photo by [Maria Ionova](https://unsplash.com/@marusyaionova?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Healthcare's ailing giant: Aetna CVS breakup?
CVS - seeking a turnaround plan for its struggling business - [considers splitting its retail and insurance units](https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/cvs-explores-options-including-potential-break-up-sources-say-2024-09-30/?ref=s3t.org) \- after repeatedly cutting its earning outlook. Factors in play:
- [Fallout from PBMs](https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/28/business/walgreens-cvs-closing/index.html?ref=s3t.org), and [competition from new rivals](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/18/why-walgreens-cvs-retail-pharmacies-are-struggling.html?ref=s3t.org) (Amazon, Walmart, Target)
- [Medicare Advantage losses and headwinds](https://hospitalogy.com/articles/2024-05-28/cvs-struggle-2024/?ref=s3t.org)
- [Failure to read the tea leaves](https://www.reddit.com/r/CVS/comments/176mkee/cvs%5Fis%5Fcreating%5Fa%5Fhealth%5Fcrisis/?rdt=51169&ref=s3t.org) as this 2023 Reddit thread describes. The on-the -ground experiences shared by CVS customers and staff in this thread read like a fulfillment of the [warnings AMA](https://www.ama-assn.org/health-care-advocacy/access-care/cvs-aetna-merger?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=The%20CVS%2DAetna%20merger%20was,benefit%20management%20%28PBM%29%20services.) gave in their original opposition to the merger.
This comes in the wake of the CVS-Aetna merger, and a string of related strategic moves including the [acquisition of Oak Street Health](https://www.cvshealth.com/news/company-news/cvs-health-completes-acquisition-of-oak-street-health.html?ref=s3t.org). This is not the first case of large well capitalized healthcare transformation efforts that struggle or fail. Underscores just how badly the US is failing to do its homework on the next generation financial model for healthcare.
---
## IPO vs PE Pendulum swings
[IPOs are coming back into style](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-says-ipo-market-pe-171600259.html?ref=s3t.org), amid [Private Equity woes](https://www.pymnts.com/news/investment-tracker/2024/report-private-equity-sits-on-3-trillion-as-dealmaking-slows/?ref=s3t.org), partially driven by high interest rates, which raised the cost of debt.
Related: CBInsights shares their latest Unicorn list: 1248 companies valued at $1B or more. CBInsights says [85% of these valuations are illegitimate](https://research.cbinsights.com/big-fake-valuations?ref=s3t.org).
Photo by [June Gathercole](https://unsplash.com/@talkingslipper?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
---
## Housing supercycle may counter affordability
Housing - the world's biggest asset class - may continue price rises for years to come, per [this Economist piece](https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/10/01/the-house-price-supercycle-is-just-getting-going?ref=s3t.org), thanks to the combined impacts of demographics, immigration (that won't slow regardless of political machinations) and now falling interest rates.
---
### AI regulations - the search for "Workable Guardrails" continues
CA Governor Gaven Newsom [vetoed the AI Safety bill](https://www.axios.com/2024/09/30/california-ai-safety-bill-governor-newsom-veto?ref=s3t.org) on Sunday Sept 29, [with this note explaining his reasoning](https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/SB-1047-Veto-Message.pdf?ref=s3t.org) ...er should we say *big tech's* reasoning. Meanwhile, OpenAi continues its mutation from non-profit to for profit, [gaining $](https://www.ft.com/content/66e0653e-c446-47b2-8a7f-baa54ccbfb9a?ref=s3t.org) and [shedding talent](https://www.yahoo.com/tech/openai-keeps-losing-executives-heres-204500997.html?guccounter=1&guce%5Freferrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9tYWlsLmdvb2dsZS5jb20v&guce%5Freferrer%5Fsig=AQAAAAIRkO7Eb80feDNW83lpG1guxe4e7Z496umSUP6O-%5FF2T922VV-rYNdhdZDKpvWXky1oKzkX2mRTZCf%5FaQS-ppVa54%5FE%5F9OPZ%5FFTzlf-BY8Cns%5F3Xo8YmVKMeXNn90V8O7HpkTmvATMbRXfocL8igCU96WrIjUEbPiPasDQpysID&ref=s3t.org) along the way.
### Mixed messages on AI revenue
Yes AI startups get to $30M revenues [faster than previous startups](https://www.ft.com/content/a9a192e3-bfbc-461e-a4f3-112e63d0bb33?ref=s3t.org) BUT they need way more capital too. Decoder previously noted OpenAI is on track for \~[$4B revenues but $8.5B in costs for 2024](https://the-decoder.com/openai-and-anthropic-lose-billions-on-ai-development-and-operations/?ref=s3t.org). Hence the jitteriness, as indicated by the market selloff in early Sept when [Goldman Sachs misread OpenAIs web traffic](https://www.tradingview.com/news/forexlive:822de3273094b:0-did-a-flawed-goldman-sachs-report-roil-the-market-on-friday/?ref=s3t.org). So...[FT says diversify](https://www.ft.com/content/4e30b80e-ce06-40dd-86a9-139d0faff65d?ref=s3t.org).
Photo by [Nicolas HIPPERT](https://unsplash.com/@nhippert?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### AI, crypto & nuclear oh my!
Some [crypto miners are diversifying to AI compute](https://cointelegraph.com/news/hive-digital-focus-crypto-mining-ai-data-centers?ref=s3t.org), and there is talk [AI may drive new demand for nuclear energy](https://www.ft.com/content/477fa0d4-fdea-4235-b8af-9cabd64a81f0?ref=s3t.org).
Personally, in this age of killer drones and exploding pagers, I’m not sure if we actually want nuclear power plants popping up everywhere in our communities and states, just so we can power all of our ChatGPT, CoPilot and Anthropic AI assistants… but believe it or not that’s the conversation that’s being had right now!
---
Photo by [Jef Willemyns](https://unsplash.com/@jefwillemyns?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Get Ready to Level Up!
### **Starting next week Oct 11,** this section will feature your Change Leadership Learning Segment for the week, taken from the [S3T Change Leadership Learning Series](https://www.s3t.org/change-leadership-learning-series/), a unique 23 week leadership course offered to paying members.
If you not yet gotten your full access membership [sign up now for your 30 day free trial](https://www.s3t.org/change-leadership-30-day-free-trial) so you can join this learning series which starts next week (Oct 11) and runs through March 2025\.
The S3T Change Leadership Learning Series will get you started on a lifelong journey of change leadership, by taking you through 3 tiers of learning,
- 101: The basics of change leadership
- 201: Learn to apply change leadership skills at personal, org and macro levels
- 301: Learn advanced skills for dealing with specific challenges in large regulated industries or other complex scenarios.
The levels are described in more detail below.
**Change Leadership 101**
- What and Why (2 learning segments)
- The Change Leader mindset (4 learning segments)
**Change Leadership 201**
- Activating Change Leadership on a Personal Level (4 learning segments)
- Activating Change Leadership at the Organizational Level (4 learning segments)
- Activating Change Leadership at the Industry or Macro Level (4 learning segments)
**Change Leadership 301**
- Learn to navigate and resolve special challenges encountered in complex change leadership scenarios. (5 learning segments)
### [Sign up now for your 30 day free trial](https://www.s3t.org/change-leadership-30-day-free-trial) \- and start getting the Change Leadership Learning Series lessons in your inbox each week, along with full access to the S3T.ORG learning platform.
###
---
**🔒 For Full Access Members**
### [Smarter More Inclusive Annual Planning](https://www.s3t.org/better-annual-planning/)
Leading companies are learning how to turn the budget season into a company-wide conversation instead of a zero-sum game, and gather *insights* not just numbers. Click the link above for the downloadable guide that shows your leadership team how your annual planning season can boost your culture and competitive advantage.
### [Annual Review Season: Signaling & perspective taking](https://www.s3t.org/annual-reviews-talent-strategy-brief/)
Annual review season brings crucial conversations when managers walk the delicate balance between the company's budget constraints vs. its needs for highly engaged & empowered employees. Each year may feel more challenging than the last - especially for companies that rely on technical talent. Learn how to avoid the trap of **saying the right things but sending the wrong signals** this Annual Review season.
---
*Thank you for reading and sharing S3T!*
[](https://ghost.org/help/using-the-editor/?ref=s3t.org)
### 🤖Sept 27 - Dual purpose housing, AI crypto merge, Supply chain security, investor outlook
URL: https://www.s3t.org/sept-27/
Last updated: 2024-09-27T03:55:45.000Z
### *🎧* [*Listen to this on the S3T Podcast!*](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org)
###
In this Edition of S3T:
- 🏠 **Housing Crisis**: Jerusalem Demsas's book explores the US housing shortage, highlighting how local hearings have stifled housing development and how the dual purpose of housing—shelter vs. investment—creates market disparities.
- 💰 **Investment vs. Shelter**: Buyers seeking homes for shelter face disadvantages against investors, driving up prices and exacerbating homelessness, especially in high-priced areas.
- 🤖 **AI & Crypto Convergence**: Coinbase achieved a milestone with the first AI-to-AI crypto transaction, signaling a future where AI agents autonomously manage financial transactions using crypto wallets.
- 💼 **Investor Outlook on AI**: AI's integration into all applications is inevitable, but it could disrupt society significantly, leading to regulation and new socio-political dynamics, as well as a potential focus on the Care Economy.
- 🔗 **Supply Chain Security**: The rise of AI-driven automation presents new risks, including the potential weaponization of consumer products, necessitating enhanced governance and risk management in supply chains.
- 🌍 **Character Revolution**: As cognitive skills become automated, character traits like proactivity and determination are increasingly vital for personal and professional growth.
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
---
Photo by [Blake Wheeler](https://unsplash.com/@blakesox?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## 🏠 Jerusalem Demsas on the housing shortage: *we did this to ourselves*
Demsas's new book, a collection of essays titled [*On The Housing Crisis: Land, Development, Democracy*](https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/09/jerusalem-demsas-on-the-housing-crisis-book/679666/?ref=s3t.org) digs into the US housing shortage and the factors that caused it. Demsas focuses on the way local hearings have over time reduced the amount of housing being built. [Good summary and review here](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-08/an-american-affordable-housing-crisis-built-by-local-democracy?ref=s3t.org).
I think this is an important contributing factor, but I also think that there is a basic principle at work as well:
**When a scarce good is being used simultaneously for two purposes, one party will suffer.**
To break this down:
- Some people in the market for a house, are trying to buy *shelter* for themselves and their family.
- Others are in the market to buy an *investment*.
Those buying an investment typically have an advantage over those buying shelter: they are often better capitalized and can pay higher prices. This causes prices (and scarcity) to increase. It shouldn't surprise us that parts of the country with the highest housing prices often have highest homeless populations, including populations of *working* homeless.
### Work hours required to afford a home - on the rise
NYDIG recently shared this chart based on data from the Census Bureau, Dept of Housing & Urban Development and Bureau of Labor.
[Courtesy of NYDIG](https://viewemail.nydig.com/bitcoin-may-telling-us-something-about-rate-cuts?ref=s3t.org)
---
[Courtesy of University of Ethereum](https://blog.ueth.org/p/when-giants-collide-exploring-the?ref=s3t.org)
## AI Crypto Convergence: Coinbase blends Crypto and AI for increased autonomy
As previously noted in S3T AI and Crypto seem to be on a path of convergence. A few of the indicators shared earlier this year:
- [AI & Blockchain Convergence](https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2024/04/02/how-ai-and-blockchain-can-revolutionize-the-internet-as-we-know-it/?ref=s3t.org) is getting noticed in the mainstream press, as [DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks) attracts investor interest](https://cryptoslate.com/iotex-secures-50m-investment-expanding-depin-narrative-for-next-cycle/?ref=s3t.org).
- The related concept of [Decentralized AI](https://www.coindesk.com/consensus-magazine/2024/03/27/the-enablers-of-decentralized-ai/?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=Decentralized%20AI%20will%20focus%20on,for%20open%2Dsource%20generative%20AI.) gives some hope for an [AI future liberated from the control of Big Tech](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/02/ai-decentralized-big-tech-blockchain?ref=s3t.org).
- And, most notably Vitalik Buterin's essay on [AI and Blockchain](https://vitalik.eth.limo/general/2024/01/30/cryptoai.html?ref=s3t.org), and this related piece [*When Giants Collide*](https://blog.ueth.org/p/when-giants-collide-exploring-the?ref=s3t.org) from University of Ethereum.
In a new development, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, announced a new milestone - [the first AI-to-AI crypto transaction on the Coinbase Developer Platform](https://cointelegraph.com/news/coinbase-artificial-intelligence-ai-crypto-transactions-wallet-brian-armstrong?ref=s3t.org), saying:
> "What did one AI buy from another? Tokens! Not crypto tokens, but AI tokens—words exchanged between language models. **They used tokens to buy tokens**"
Can AI agents really manage financial transactions on their own? While they can't open traditional bank accounts (yet), they can indeed use crypto wallets to transact with USDC on the Base blockchain. These transactions are "instant, global, and free," facilitating more efficient interactions between AI, humans, merchants, and other AIs. This capability could help AI overcome current limitations in accessing traditional financial tools, potentially allowing them to autonomously acquire resources like AWS or other SaaS services.
Armstrong has been noodling on this for a while now: [he previously called for LLMs to have Crypto Wallets](https://cointelegraph.com/news/coinbase-ceo-brian-armstrong-ai-should-have-crypto-wallets?ref=s3t.org).
---
Photo by [BoliviaInteligente](https://unsplash.com/@boliviainteligente?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## AI & Macro - emerging investor outlook
Investors are [jumping into semiconductor ETFs](https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/etfs/sp500-investors-think-they-found-the-perfect-way-to-profit-from-ai/?utm%5Fsource=newsshowcase&utm%5Fmedium=gnews&utm%5Fcampaign=CDAqEAgAKgcICjDOm4YLMJD1gwMwlfeTAw&utm%5Fcontent=rundown&gaa%5Fat=g&gaa%5Fn=AWsEHT6HwxXVH%5Fq9oboMJZ7y%5FCO-m-YlfyELEx0LBDGUQJcqy05t8PfWcQCbXlnR-rcSJmviHhvImgDqDWi%5F&gaa%5Fts=66f5fd69&gaa%5Fsig=v9mHzW2OQmxYFyNSkRaEqTR13aBxKJyo8zFTZaOMR2AGwFimU1L-dYu9x3mF3am4jyhafRE43IvPJMubvTfTvQ%3D%3D) \- the 10 largest semiconductor ETFs are up 71% this year - leaving software ETFs (up 9.5%) and even the S&P500 (up 20%) in the dust. These funds focus just on chip companies rather than the entire market or tech industry, so it's not surprising that 2024 is a standout year for them.
### Where does it go from here?
Nic Carter sketches out where it *might* go next, in [his long but worth it thread](https://x.com/nic%5F%5Fcarter/status/1797635177973158182?s=46&t=GoPAAwUSN6sNrDA2LhP96Q&ref=s3t.org) where he mulls the future investment landscape for AI investors - and pretty much everyone else. Carter suggests - as you'll see in the highlights below - that some exciting times lie ahead, perhaps some great returns but also some big dilemmas:
- "the market has realized that AI will be embedded into every application" and we won't call it out any more...we don't call out "Internet" as a product or startup differentiator any more. We just assume it's Internet capable.
- "the AI opportunity is obviously colossal..."
Then Carter gets to the dark side of the forecast:
- "it’s likely to be “too successful” in terms of disrupting society."
- "AI will empower "socialist, anti-capital dynamics in the west""
- "If you're an investor, "allocate aggressively" but "consider the reprisals to come."
Reprisals in Carter's view would take several forms:
- heavy regulating and taxation
- "empowered socialist political movements"..."new coalitions of AI-affected individuals...including disenfranchised white collar workers."
Carter notes that the Industrial Revolution made huge labor pools irrelevant: working farm horses declined 90% after 1850, but astutely notes that the "social contract in developed countries stipulates that \[workers\] be taken care of even if their human capital has been devalued."
How exactly will that work? Carter doesn't say but one possible path to explore would be prioritization of the Care Economy.
The *Care Economy* \- the collective work that supports the "[development and maintenance of human capabilities](https://blog.dol.gov/2021/08/11/an-economists-view-on-the-care-economy?ref=s3t.org)" is so vital yet so **poorly understood and undervalued**.
**A significant percentage of caring work is currently uncompensated,** or under-compensated. Perfect example: consider the way mother's often have to carry so many different kinds of caring roles - as [Peterson and Calarco explain](https://getpocket.com/explore/item/other-countries-have-social-safety-nets-the-u-s-has-women?ref=s3t.org) \- and maintain the social safety net we seemingly just expect them to provide with little or no compensation.
This is one of the distortions in our current economic model - valuable and indispensable goods and services we could not live without can be treated as worthless, while dubious schemes and "assets" capture the lions share of available capital and resources for hoarding within smaller and smaller circles of hyper-entitled individuals and companies.
---
Photo by [Homa Appliances](https://unsplash.com/@homaappliances?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## New Priority: Supply chain security must go to the next level
*New innovation and thought leadership will be required to preserve the integrity and safety of consumer products.*
The shocking events in Lebanon and Syria involving [counterfeit walkie talkies](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-19/walkie-talkies-in-lebanon-blasts-were-made-at-least-a-decade-ago?ref=s3t.org) and [pagers carrying explosives](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd7xnelvpepo?ref=s3t.org) highlight an **emerging supply chain risk to consumer safety**. Exploding devices are not new - Army Field Manual 5-31 refers to WWII examples of exploding tobacco pipes and the like.
Army Field Manual 5-31 - [courtesy of eBay](https://www.ebay.com/itm/133439578813?chn=ps&norover=1&mkevt=1&mkrid=711-166974-028196-7&mkcid=2&mkscid=101&itemid=133439578813&targetid=2281487041188&device=c&mktype=pla&googleloc=1021047&poi=&campaignid=20862384921&mkgroupid=165330969568&rlsatarget=pla-2281487041188&abcId=9357723&merchantid=6296724&geoid=1021047&gad%5Fsource=1&gbraid=0AAAAAD%5FQDh8rGssXIE9N64uGZmV04Yx9a&gclid=Cj0KCQjwxsm3BhDrARIsAMtVz6MVjGzRP4V5Qepq4RGC8TFHBrO3U5nT7j2k0jnu5jTPAE8AO43UoesaAjl%5FEALw%5FwcB&ref=s3t.org)
What's new is the prospect of highly automated AI driven manufacturing being used to weaponize consumer products *at scale.*
The ability to place a lethal device in a consumer product while maintaining remote detonation control raises significant concerns about supply chain security and highlights the need for a new focus on risk management and product integrity.
It would be concerning enough if this threat were to emerge a decade ago when such devices had to be made one by one. It is doubly concerning that it is emerging *now* alongside the advent of **exponential productivity and automation powered by AI.**
### The Rise of AI and Hyper-Automation: A Double-Edged Sword
If the driving business concern of the 20th century was how to increase productivity, the driving concern of the 21st century will be how to inspect and govern the *exponentially increased productivity* of AI driven automation.
The focus must shift from seeking greater productivity levels to now increasing our ability to inspect, control and govern.
A critical challenge: staffing & budget norms for today's governance, supervisory, safety, and regulatory functions are sized to manage output generated by *human* productivity*.* These norms are no match for *AI driven automation* \- which can already output more in a few minutes than a human could read or check in a week.
The skyrocketing productivity of AI and automation raises the urgent question: Who will check, review, approve, and provide governance for this massive flood of productivity that very well could destabilize the world?
Safest bet: We will. If we survive, this is what we'll be doing.
### The New Frontier of 21st Century Work: Staying Ahead of AI-Driven Output
The careers and workloads of the 21st century will be focused on humans trying to stay ahead of this tidal wave of AI-driven productivity:
- Inspecting documents, code, even products created by generative AI to make sure they are fit for purpose, accurate
- Reviewing decisions made by algorithms to ensure they are unbiased and sound.
- (and now) Making sure that consumer products coming off production lines aren’t weapons in disguise, controlled by unseen actors.
**Just as the Internet made cybersecurity a new industry and budget priority, we now expect that AI driven automation will force a focus and funding on supply chain security.**
### But won't AI help us govern ....ahem ... AI?
Yes, eventually AI automation may prove to be a reliable partner in this supervisory work. But in the beginning, humans will need to micromanage. Right now the focus should be on helping organizations learn how to govern and control the AI capabilities they choose to activate:
- Understand the risk space: the categories of things that can go wrong. Develop risk registers, using this one as a reference: [airisk.mit.edu](https://airisk.mit.edu/?ref=s3t.org)
- Structure first generation supervisory functions: AI Governance boards, AI safety testing teams, red teams, accuracy check functions etc.
- Get good at directly catching and intervening. Develop best practices.
- From this base, test and learn where and how AI tools can reliably help carry some of the supervisory workload.
This will likely take the form of a necessary spend bubble. **AI Governance and Risk Management needs to be a priority line item in the annual budget of any company electing to use or deliver AI capabilities.**
This will not be easy. The global supply chains for some products are loosely tracked, and riddled with counterfeit products. Turns out, compromising supply chains "[is not that hard.](https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2024/09/21/hezbollah-hack-asia-supply-chains-analysis/?ref=s3t.org)"
### Context: International Law
This development raises the prospect of noncombatant supply chains being manipulated on a massive scale, potentially affecting millions of innocent consumers. It also threatens to undermine long-standing conventions, like the [Geneva Convention](https://www.ohchr.org/en/instruments-mechanisms/instruments/geneva-convention-relative-protection-civilian-persons-time-war?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=Persons%20taking%20no%20active%20part,race%2C%20colour%2C%20religion%20or%20faith), which distinguished between combatants and noncombatants.
> **6.12.4.8 *Booby-Traps and Other Devices in the Form of Apparently Harmless Portable Objects Specifically Designed to Explode*.** It is prohibited in all circumstances to use booby-traps or other devices in the form of apparently harmless portable objects that are specifically designed and constructed to contain explosive material.274 This prohibition relates to booby-traps manufactured to resemble items, such as watches, personal audio players, cameras, toys, and the like. This prohibition is intended to prevent the production of large quantities of dangerous objects that can be scattered around and are likely to be attractive to civilians, especially children. - **The CCW Amended Mines Protocol entered into force on December 3, 1998**
The [Law of War](https://media.defense.gov/2023/Jul/31/2003271432/-1/-1/0/DOD-LAW-OF-WAR-MANUAL-JUNE-2015-UPDATED-JULY%202023.PDF?ref=s3t.org) defines a "booby-trap" as "any device or material which is designed, constructed or adapted to kill or injure, and which functions unexpectedly when a person disturbs or approaches an apparently harmless object or performs an apparently safe act."
This development marks a new chapter in supply chain security, emphasizing the urgent need for tighter controls and greater integrity in safeguarding civilian goods.
Further reading: The [2024 Pager Explosions article on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024%5FLebanon%5Fpager%5Fexplosions?ref=s3t.org#cite%5Fnote-Finucane-33) has an exhaustive list of references on the topic, including implications for international law and global supply chains.
---
**Parting Thought:**
> “As more and more cognitive skills get automated, we‘re in the midst of a character revolution“
\- Adam Grant in *Hidden Potential: The Science of Achieving Greater Things*
Character skills like proactivity and determination can enable you to overcome your tendencies and instead think and behave in ways that are true to your principles. Have a great week!
### Sept 20 - AI Liability Insurance, Hyperpolation, DeFi Hearings, Rate Cut, Ownership mindset
URL: https://www.s3t.org/sept-20-ai-liability-insurance-hyperpolation-defi-hearings-rate-cut-ownership-mindset/
Last updated: 2024-09-20T04:33:32.000Z
### *🎧* [*Listen to this on the S3T Podcast!*](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org)
###
In this Edition of S3T:
- 🐻 **Fed Rate Cut:** The Fed made a significant half-point interest rate cut as job creation slows, with Jerome Powell noting it's something that "bears watching."
- 📈 **Market Reaction:** The S&P500 hit a new record, rising 1.7%, while Bitcoin surged 5%.
- 💡 **AI Model Limits:** AI models like OpenAI's struggle with "Hyperpolation," highlighting the challenges of generalizing beyond existing data.
- 🎲 **AI Liability Insurance:** Companies need to ask 7 key questions when purchasing AI liability insurance to manage uncharted risks effectively.
- 💼 **DeFi vs. TradFi:** Congressional hearings reveal the difficulty in regulating DeFi with traditional financial laws due to the lack of intermediaries in DeFi transactions.
- 🏦 **Crypto Challenges:** Despite crypto's potential for better privacy and accountability, issues like Wells Fargo's money laundering highlight that traditional finance also has significant challenges.
- 🔄 **Ownership Mindset:** Cultivating an ownership mindset in vendors can lead to deeper, long-term relationships and success by aligning with their clients' missions.
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
---
Photo by [Federico Di Dio photography](https://unsplash.com/@didiofederico%5Fphotographer?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## 🐻Bears Watching
This week the Fed [finally cut interest rates](https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/fed-interest-rate-cut-inflation-live-09-18-2024?ref=s3t.org), and did it big with a half point rate cut as job creation continued to slow - something Jerome Powell says "bears watching." Interesting choice of words. 😎 [The S&P500 hit a new record](https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-091924?ref=s3t.org), jumping 1.7% while [Bitcoin jumped 5%](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-09-19/fed-s-rate-cut-sends-stocks-to-a-record?ref=s3t.org).
Courtesy of [Ycharts](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us%5Finflation%5Frate?ref=s3t.org)
This chart shows headline inflation rates over the past 5 years. It suggests that inflation went up and then was nicely arrested and brought down for a soft landing thanks to interest rate magic.
At the same time consumer sentiment is still very poor, as noted by [University of Michigan's Consumer Survey](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/charts.php?ref=s3t.org):
Courtesy of [University of Michigan Consumer Survey](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/charts.php?ref=s3t.org)
### Sentiment shifts
There is also difference between perceptions on the left and right, as noted in the graphic below:
Courtesy of [University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/featured-charts.php?ref=s3t.org)
Related: [Goldman Sachs analysis of Harris and Trump economic plans](https://www.siliconvalley.com/2024/09/04/goldman-sees-us-gdp-hit-if-trump-wins-boost-if-democrats-sweep/?ref=s3t.org).
###
---
## AI Model Performance Boundaries
### Hyperpolation & the limits of models trained on publicly available data
If you've noticed that that the "reasoning" of OpenAI's new ChatGPTo1 / Strawberry model seems overly chatty and shallow, Toby Ord may have an explanation.
Ord's new paper [*Interpolation, Extrapolation, Hyperpolation: Generalising into new dimensions*](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2409.05513?ref=s3t.org) (PDF) focuses on the concept of "Hyperpolation" as the attempt to hyper-extrapolate new insights or conclusions beyond what can be reliably inferred from existing data. Ord notes that human creativity seems to do this in useful or inspiring ways in the arts and even sciences, but that current AI systems struggle to emulate this capability beyond [simple extension of imagery](https://x.com/tobyordoxford/status/1833470459825779117?ref=s3t.org).
> Interestingly there are AI systems that can do this task — systems that are trained on (image, movie) pairs and have learnt how to hyperpolate from an image to how that image would evolve.
> Here a system starts with the leftmost images and hyperpolates forwards 3 more frames:
> 14/ [pic.twitter.com/qOCrlv3N0q](https://t.co/qOCrlv3N0q?ref=s3t.org)
>
> — Toby Ord (@tobyordoxford) [September 10, 2024](https://twitter.com/tobyordoxford/status/1833470459825779117?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org)
As [Azeem Azhar puts it](https://www.exponentialview.co/p/strawberry-openai-o1?ref=s3t.org), AI is currently unable to "create or explore fundamentally new conceptual spaces and dimensions that are **undefined by its existing data**."
This highlights a critical limitation of the current foundational models released by the likes of OpenAI, Anthropic, Google etc:
- The data that a model was NOT trained on represents an important boundary line to be VERY aware of.
- If a model was not trained on data of a specific domain, then that model should not be used to derive insights about that domain.
For more context see my [Strawberry test results and notes on the reasoning capabilities of AI](https://www.s3t.org/ai-reasoning-capabilities/) (which includes some updates since the original notes shared last week).
##
---
Photo by [Matthew Osborn](https://unsplash.com/@matthewosborn?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## 🎲 What to expect when you purchase AI Liability Insurance
As leading firms roll the dice with their initial AI solution launches —Generative AI or otherwise—they come face to face with the reality that **AI liability is uncharted territory.** The tech and IT service industry - at least the portions dabbling in AI - are looking for ways to minimize their liability:
- transfer it to others, and / or
- prevent others from transferring liability to them.
In this special segment, learn 7 questions corporate risk management teams should ask when purchasing AI liability insurance. These questions can help teams address both the uncertainty of AI liability and the current low-maturity status of of AI insurance policies. They also can help companies factor risk (and cost of coverage) into the **business cases they *should be* doing prior to investing in delivery of new AI products or capabilities**.
**Key takeaway:** Business insurers have not yet figured out how to price or manage the risks of AI. They don't yet have established views on what behaviors would keep a policy holder in safe territory - to either *prevent* an undesired event, or to warrant a *payout* if an undesired event occurred.
Companies selling or using AI can better manage risks by using 7 questions to engage insurers and create a stronger, more effective blend of coverage and policy safeguards. Keep reading here:
[AI Liability InsuranceWhat to expect when you purchase AI Liability Insurance policy As leading firms plan their initial rollouts of AI solutions—Generative AI or otherwise—they come face to face with the reality that AI liability is uncharted territory. The tech and IT service industry - at least the portions dabblingS3TRalph Perrine](https://www.s3t.org/ai-liability-insurance/)
---
## TradFi DeFI who's the dirtiest of them all?
### Congressional Hearings on Decentralized Finance.
Amanda Tumenili, attorney at the DeFi Education Fund opened with an explanation of what's new and why it can't be regulated with old rules:
> *"The existing approach of trying to apply rules of TradFi to DeFI will not work. The traditional financial system requires intermediaries to function. Brokers affect stock trades, and clearing houses settle transactions, and that means that we need to trust intermediaries to do their jobs reliably and honestly, and the existing rules evolved to prevent the abuse of our trust.*
>
> *But DeFi doesn't use intermediaries. If I want to swap two digital assets using a DeFi protocol, there is no broker, and there is no clearing house. DeFi's existence - the very reason that this technology was developed - was to eliminate the need to rely on intermediaries and empower people to transact directly with their peers. Existing law assumes that there is some identifiable entity that can take possession of my funds, collect information about my transaction, and even block a trade, but that entity does not exist in DeFi."*
Good summary of the hearing with audio clips in the [Bankless Sept 13 podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/rollup-the-debate-1st-defi-congress-hearing-ens-joins/id1499409058?i=1000669428768&ref=s3t.org).
The hearing underscored the degree to which Congress is failing to educate themselves on emerging technology. Several members of Congress focused on the bad actors in crypto, completely missing the improved protections and forensic mechanisms crypto offers over traditional finance (and that traditional finance has significantly more abuse and fraud than crypto).
[Paul Barron's interview with Amanda Tuminelli](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=571Yjn5l3PM&ref=s3t.org) provides a helpful deep dive on Crypto and DeFi basics that some members of Congress are struggling to get their heads around. This interview is a really good educational discussion with clear explanations.
**Takeaway:** it's important to help Congressional members across the political spectrum understand emerging tech - and specifically the advantages crypto offers for better privacy *and* better accountability over what is available in traditional finance.
### 🏦 Surprise! Crypto not the only space with bad actors
Sort of poetic justice: just after the hearing, [news broke of Wells Fargo's money laundering](https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/12/economy/wells-fargo-enforcement-action-money-laundering/index.html?ref=s3t.org) problems. [Enforcement action details here](https://www.occ.gov/news-issuances/news-releases/2024/nr-occ-2024-99.html?ref=s3t.org).
Related: [the SEC seems to be backtracking on its confusing term](https://x.com/jchervinsky/status/1834459757295398993?ref=s3t.org) "crypto asset security" and its previous oft repeated claim that crypto tokens are securities.
---
Photo by [Christina @ wocintechchat.com](https://unsplash.com/@wocintechchat?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
# How to cultivate an ownership mindset in vendors and partners
###
*Featuring one of the learning segments from the* [*S3T Change Leadership Learning Series*](https://www.s3t.org/change-leadership-learning-series/)*, available to paying members.*
**Ultimately your goal is to inspire your vendors to go beyond being simply transactional, to being purpose-driven - *like you are*.** Let them see the opportunity they have to be part of something that has a clear positive impact.
**Yes, your vendor has a business to run, but here's the reality: your vendor's business will run better with more impact if they're deeply engaged with your mission**.
Ultimately an ownership mindset is good for both you and the vendor. You're in effect offering them the chance to develop a deep affinity with your firm - the kind of deep affinity that ensures long-term relationships and long-term success.
Vendor-client relationships - especially where technology is involved - thrive on two things: clarity and affinity. When you and your vendor are clear about the goal and you both have a common affinity for the positive impact that the goal is intended to achieve, *you're both in a better position to succeed*.
### 🔒[Learn the 4 top ways to kindle an ownership mindset in your vendors and partners, and unlock the secret superpower of an ownership mindset](https://www.s3t.org/how-to-cultivate-an-owership-mindset-in-vendors-and-partners/).
###
---
🙏 Thank you for reading and sharing the S3T newsletter with others! Reach out to me on LinkedIn - love to hear from you. Have a great weekend and a great week ahead!
### 🍓Strawberry AI, Global Tax Rulings, and Signs of a More Transparent World
URL: https://www.s3t.org/strawberry-bipartisan-brands-ai-remaking-education-global-tax-shifts-2/
Last updated: 2024-09-15T14:57:58.000Z
### *🎧* [*Listen to this on the S3T Podcast!*](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org)
###
In this Edition of S3T:
- 🗳️ **Presidential Debate Highlights Need for Personal Economic Perspectives**: Recent debates emphasize forming individual views beyond political slogans and election season rhetoric.
- 🤝 **Brands Bridging Political Divides**: Certain brands successfully appeal across the political spectrum, uniting consumers regardless of their affiliations.
- 🤖 **OpenAI's "Strawberry" Enhances AI Transparency**: The new ChatGPTo1, nicknamed Strawberry, offers improved explainability by detailing its reasoning and conclusions.
- 💡 **Replit's AI Agent Plans Before Coding**: Replit introduces an AI agent that outlines a development plan before building applications, potentially influencing future software development practices.
- 📚 **AI Revolutionizing Education**: Tools like Khan Academy's Khanmigo and Google's Illuminate are reshaping learning with personalized tutoring and interactive content.
- 🌍 **EU Ruling Signals Shift in Corporate Tax Strategies**: The EU Court's decision on Apple's back taxes highlights the need for multinational companies to adopt fair and sustainable business practices.
Tip: To level up and differentiating yourself, be sure to sign up for S3T Full Access:
- Click the subscribe button (in the lower right of this page), then
- Select the S3T Full Access option, to begin investing in your success and preparing for your next great win.
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
---
## Economic Plans Debated
Coming out of this week's Presidential Debate, both sides seem to concede there was a clear winner in the debate, though they disagree about why. The debate this week - and the headlines leading up to it - highlighted the need for economic plans - including relief plans - even as [headline inflation settled to 2.53%](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us%5Finflation%5Frate?ref=s3t.org).
It's important to develop your own perspective separate from the political slogans and insults thrown about during election season. To level up your understanding and readiness to engage in discussions and decisions, see this week's Premium learning segment *"Bees vs Termites: Unlocking Symbiotic Strategies for the 21st Business Environment"* (under the Change Leadership Section below)
### Bipartisan Brands
A specific set of brands are successfully appealing to Americans across the political spectrum, even as others seem to align only one side or the other.
Courtesy of YouGov via Sherwood
See summary in this [Sherwood note](https://sherwood.news/business/brands-liberal-conservative-divide-yougov-survey?ref=s3t.org). Download full YouGov report [here](https://business.yougov.com/content/50424-us-bipartisan-brands-report-2024?ref=s3t.org).
---
## OpenAI releases "thinking AI" aka Strawberry
This week OpenAI [rolled out a preview version of its "reasoning" model](https://openai.com/index/introducing-openai-o1-preview/?ref=s3t.org) known popularly as Strawberry. ChatGPT Paying subscribers will see Strawberry in their choice of models - it goes by the name "ChatGPTo1 Preview".
Strawberry prompt interface showing slightly different output format.
The biggest takeaway for me was not the "astounding reasoning" capability of Strawberry but rather the explainability potential. Based on the testing I have been able to do so far, Strawberry might represent a significant leap forward in **transparency**...explaining what the model was doing, and how it arrived at its conclusions. This kind of built in explainability is something that AI Governance teams have wanted for years now.
****🔒 For Full Access Members:** [****AI Reasoning Capabilities**](https://www.s3t.org/ai-reasoning-capabilities/): I show you how to test Strawberry's reasoning process, compare it to older versions of ChatGPT, and show what happens when you ask it to re-evaluate specific segments of its logic.
---
### AI developer tool shares its dev plan before proceeding
Replit has just launched a limited release phase of its AI agent, [the "Replit Agent"](https://docs.replit.com/replitai/agent?ref=s3t.org) that does application development *in a step by step process* that appears (to me) to be **compatible with CDK-style controlled development that SOC2 regulated firms tend to favor:**
- You start with a prompt, then the tool comes back with a proposed step by step plan.
- You can review the plan, tweak it if needed, then track with it, as it follows the plan to build out the app.
I don't expect to see regulated firms adopting Replit en masse, but I think this step by step style will be adopted by other software tool providers, along with a gradual phase out of the "spit-out-some-code" approach that today's Generative AI coding tools default to.
---
## AI and Education
### Industry - Academia AI Gap
As noted in the [Stanford AI Index Report](https://aiindex.stanford.edu/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/HAI%5FAI-Index-Report-2024.pdf?ref=s3t.org), in 2023 the tech industry produced 51 AI models but academia only produced 15\. In addition, industry seems to be making inroads into the business of academia, as noted in the following paragraphs.
### AI Tutors
Khan Academy continues to evolve an [AI Tutor it calls Khanmigo](https://www.khanmigo.ai/?ref=s3t.org), blazing a new trail out of the educator's dilemma over whether to use ChatGPT type AI bots or ban them from the classroom. The AI tutor prompts students to think through a challenge - step by step - rather than just giving them the answer. Schools that want to try Khanmigo can [request information and pricing here](https://cloud.e.khanacademy.org/districts-demo-form?utm%5Fsource=site&utm%5Fmedium=page&utm%5Fcampaign=khanmigo).
Related:
- Cast-strapped education districts seem to be hopeful that AI Tutors can [enable a more personalized learning experience](https://www.ceamteam.org/the-future-of-ai-tutoring-personalized-learning-in-2024/?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=As%20we%20step%20into%202024,and%20reach%20their%20full%20potential.).
- See also EdTech: [Are AI Tutors the Answer to Lingering Learning Loss?](https://edtechmagazine.com/k12/article/2024/05/are-ai-tutors-answer-lingering-learning-loss?ref=s3t.org)
### Grad Level Learning
[Google's new Illuminate](https://illuminate.google.com/home?ref=s3t.org) can take a white paper and turn it into a mildly vapid conversation. Listen to a few samples and tell me if it isn't the 2nd coming of drive time radio, bantering about transformer architectures and the like. That said it does seem to hold potential as a learning tool, especially as user communities gain confidence that the tool is providing accurate summaries.
---
Bumblebee on Coneflower. Photo by Ralph Perrine June 2020.
## Bees vs Termites: Unlocking Symbiotic Strategies for the 21st Business Environment
*Corporations, communities, and customers are intertwined in ways that can't be ignored or exploited indefinitely. The notion that corporations can thrive while their customers and communities suffer is not just unsustainable; it has become increasingly unviable as the global consequences force more rigorous scrutiny and accountability mechanisms.*
### Peak tax evasion: have we reached a tipping point in multi-national tax schemes?
This week EU Court of Justice (ECJ) - the rough equivalent of the US Supreme Court - [ruled that Apple owes $13B in back taxes](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckgwkwxr4eqo?ref=s3t.org). The ruling signals a potential shift in how multinational companies approach tax avoidance strategies.
Traditionally, global corporations have "shopped around" for the most tax-friendly jurisdictions, relocating key business functions—or at least the appearance of said functions (see [Coca Cola's tax case](https://www.ft.com/content/f69d3795-7057-4ed3-884c-56529488c522?ref=s3t.org) and this [244 page explanation of its labrynthian scheme](https://d1e00ek4ebabms.cloudfront.net/production/uploaded-files/Coca-Cola%20US%20tax%20court%20order%20November%2018%202020-a26ca81c-0b8f-4316-bada-86078cfd25fa.pdf?ref=s3t.org)) —to these locations in order to minimize taxes.
However, the Apple ruling demonstrates that even years after establishing these schemes, they can be scrutinized and result in significant financial penalties.
The EU ruling involves a central court (ECJ) overriding Ireland's legal position (that Apple was compliant), forcing Ireland to collect $13B. If negotiated agreements between multi-national companies and nation-states can be overturned by a regions courts, what does that do to the business climate for that region? Will the EU fall out of favor as a market & base for multi-nationals?
Adding to this complexity is the increasingly multipolar world order, where geopolitical tensions, sanctions or reputational risks may limit where companies can or want to do business.
💡
***Also on the legal / tech watch list:**
1\. [Google's Antitrust case](https://apnews.com/article/google-justice-department-antitrust-search-engine-punishment-6f3ea0c2851a01b94bdedefbd3979f45?ref=s3t.org)
2\. California's [AI laws](https://calmatters.org/economy/technology/2024/09/california-ai-safety-regulations-bills/?ref=s3t.org)
### **Corporate leadership teams are right to sense they are at a crossroads here:**
- Adopt more transparent and compliant tax strategies, as the risk of both regulatory backlash and geopolitical limitations grows in this shifting global landscape? OR
- Double down on sponsorship of political candidates who promise to cut taxes and regulations?
Unfortunately neither of these choices may get to the root problem...
### What is the root problem to solve?
The root problem on the surface can be seen as the fundamental misalignment between global business practices and national tax systems, which creates persistent issues with fairness, enforcement, and economic competitiveness.
Here's a three-point breakdown of the root problem:
1. **Fragmented Global Taxation Systems**: Each country sets its own tax laws, leading to inconsistencies that multinationals exploit. Companies can shift profits to low-tax jurisdictions even if their operations and value creation primarily take place elsewhere. This undermines tax fairness, as corporations can avoid paying their fair share in the countries where they generate most of their revenue.
2. **Regulatory Lag and Enforcement Challenges**: The rapid globalization of business has outpaced the ability of national and regional regulators to enforce coherent tax policies. Multinational companies can design complex tax schemes that take years to investigate, often leading to delayed enforcement and retroactive penalties, as seen in the Apple case.
3. **Erosion of Public Trust and Economic Fairness**: As corporations sidestep national tax laws, public trust in both the business sector and government institutions erodes. This contributes to economic inequality, as smaller businesses and individuals must bear a disproportionate share of the tax burden.
**Recommended Approach**: To begin addressing this root problem, more international coordination is key:
- Initiatives like the [OECD's global minimum corporate tax framework](https://www.oecd.org/en/topics/sub-issues/global-minimum-tax.html?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=The%20global%20minimum%20tax%2C%20which,a%20floor%20under%20tax%20competition%2C), which aims to establish a baseline tax rate across countries, can help close loopholes and ensure more equitable taxation.
- Multinational cooperation between governments, along with transparency initiatives requiring companies to report where they earn revenue and pay taxes, will help create a more balanced global tax system.
At the same time, political will must grow to prioritize long-term structural reform over short-term political gains.
### Good points, but isn't the root of the problem about mindset & motivations?
The mental framework for a 21st-century business leadership team must evolve beyond a narrow focus on maximizing short-term profits and instead take a holistic, long-term view that integrates key social, environmental, and economic factors.
This mindset should reflect the following principles:
1. **Sustainability as a Core Business Imperative**: Leaders must see sustainability not as a cost but as an investment in the future. The health of the planet directly impacts long-term business viability, and consumers increasingly prefer companies that prioritize environmental stewardship. By adopting circular economy models, reducing carbon footprints, and supporting renewable energy, leadership teams can align profit motives with global sustainability goals.
2. **Financial Equity and Fair Play**: Companies must ensure that their business models contribute fairly to the communities where they operate. This includes adopting transparent tax practices and ensuring that their financial success does not come at the expense of societal fairness. Embracing equitable value-sharing within the ecosystem—across employees, customers, and communities—builds trust and resilience in the business model.
3. **Nurturing Customer and Community Well-being**: The focus on profit should be intertwined with supporting the health, wellness, and long-term success of customers and communities. Thriving customers drive sustainable growth, as their loyalty and purchasing power increase when their lives are enriched by the products and services they use. Companies that invest in their customers' ability to thrive, whether through wellness initiatives, education, or ethical business practices, create lasting value.
By adopting this framework, leadership teams can position their companies for sustainable growth, maintain relevance in a rapidly changing world, and build stronger relationships with customers, employees, and society at large. This approach allows companies to thrive while ensuring the long-term well-being of all stakeholders.
### Beyond ESG: Bees vs Termites
The updated framework for business leadership must go beyond traditional ESG rhetoric, which is often seen as virtue signaling without strategic depth.
We must acknowledge a fundamental truth: businesses, communities, and customers are intertwined in ways that can't be ignored or exploited indefinitely. The notion that corporations can thrive while their customers and communities suffer is not just unsustainable; it has become increasingly unviable as the global consequences force more rigorous scrutiny and accountability mechanisms.
Companies need to learn how to create **symbiotic strategies** where the success of one stakeholder naturally fuels the success of the others. This strategy is like the relationship between bees and flowers—both thrive together, and in doing so, they sustain a greater ecosystem, including the food supply. A company should aim to cultivate customers and communities in a way that enhances their well-being, which in turn drives long-term growth and profitability for the company. Contrast this with the **exploitative relationships** many businesses have historically relied on, akin to termites eating away at the very structure that supports them until it collapses.
By focusing on symbiotic strategies, businesses can unlock new sources of innovation, loyalty, and resilience. They are no longer playing zero-sum games but are actively participating in value creation that benefits all parties involved.
**A symbiotic strategy is not about "doing good" as a separate initiative; it is a business imperative that recognizes the long-term viability of the company is *directly* tied to the health and vitality of its customers and communities. As markets and regulatory environments become less forgiving of exploitative practices, this symbiotic strategies offer a proactive paths to sustained, meaningful growth.**
### Crypto conversation part 2: how to find the kernel of a kajillion dollar idea & more...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/crypto-conversation-part-2-how-to-find-the-kernel-of-a-kajillion-dollar-idea-more/
Last updated: 2024-09-06T02:42:46.000Z
### *🎧* [*Listen to this conversation on the S3T Podcast!*](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org)
###
***Happy Friday! We are continuing our crypto conversation with Russell Castagnaro and here is what you'll learn about today:***
- 🔐 Why Blockchain-based architectures change personal data ownership
- 🛡️ Safe ways for companies to experiment and learn about crypto now
- 🚀 On-ramps for crypto careers and learning
- 🏗️ How Blockchain merges previously separate system software categories
- 🤝 Community-based vs extraction-based venture capital networks
- **💡 How to find the kernel of a kajillion-dollar idea**
This is a compressed master class filled with practical ready-to-use insights - a refreshing departure from the apocalyptic all or nothing hype we often hear from some players in the crypto space.
Russell Castagnaro is the founder of Wampei, one of the first Bitcoin payments companies, as well as the founding partner of Bufficorn Ventures, a web3 venture portfolio. Russell's background in software, government, privacy, security and crypto gives him a unique clear-eyed ability to sort the wheat from the chaff in the emerging crypto and web3 industry.
*To aid readability I've lightly edited the audio transcript and added topical headers. I've also added a handy "What you learned" recap at the end.*
---
### Last week we left off talking about financial use cases for individual payments. This week we continue that thread and branch out to some other topics.
**Ralph:** So Russell, I think you have a view about the coexistence between crypto and traditional finance - that maybe there's more coexistence than many would suspect
**Russell:** Yeah this won't replace it because people like using credit cards. They like being able to you know, first of all, it's a debt instrument if you're not in trouble then it costs you nothing to get a 30-day float for payments. It gives you some security and stuff like that so this isn't saying that like crypto replaces all of that.
But when you're talking about *your* data and *your* information...
**Ralph:** Oh gosh, there's so much we could talk about there right? Like there are things you've achieved, things you own, your memberships your credentials, education...
**Russell:** The fact that you have certain skills, verifiable credentials. I think we've talked about before how back in the day Harvard was looking at LinkedIn and they found that there are more people with Harvard degrees on LinkedIn than had ever been issued in the history of Harvard!
They had this Harvard at home program so what they did is they went and contacted these individuals saying, it seems like you you really like Harvard. Would you like to actually get a degree from Harvard by taking these online classes?
And when you look at a resume how do you know to trust this, you know?
And so if you can do that electronically and you're the one who owns that piece of information, you can share it when you want to prove things. That's a game-changer!
### Blockchain based architectures change the equation for personal data ownership
**Ralph:** okay, so let's zoom out just a bit to talk about how privacy and personal data ownership might be impacted by Blockchain based architectures. How do you see that?
**Russell:** Think about how people's information is mined, right? Like looking at YouTube, right? They're getting information about their customers. They're pushing out ads. What if instead you could just pick the ads that you wanted to watch because you were interested in those products and you could just get paid directly.
So instead of paying like three cents per eyeball that looks at the video, they're now paying 15 cents to people who actually might be interested.
Now that the technology exists that enables this kind of behavior, businesses need to catch up. It's a substantially different business model.
### Find a way to experiment safely
**Ralph:** Yeah I think that's exactly what some companies are curious about - like what should we be doing in 2025? It's annual planning season, for a lot of companies believe it or not it's already starting and for them, it's like what should we be doing in this space?
How do companies get started?
**Russell:** I think that the first thing is: your creative teams and your marketing teams are going to come up with ideas for using new technology. The key is to make sure that it's a safe enough approach where a little marketing experiment doesn't turn into a complete nightmare.
I think there's an Office episode about a guy who does something like that and it all goes wrong. You need to experiment, but you need a safe way to do it. What you don't want to do is make experimenting with this technology a potentially career-limiting experience.
**Ralph:** Right
Russell: I think we're well on our way to that - you've got teams like the team at Unicorn Wallet who are making a wallet for brand - that's safe. You've got other things that that replace vehicles people are already used to using with something that is more robust.
There's a lot of static to signal as we were saying earlier, but there are clear ways to lower your cost of doing business so you have to have you know, a technologist that can look and say, okay what is your business and can this help you or not?
This is not something to do just because you want to say you're in the blockchain space. This is something to do to make sure that you are more competitive as a company or you provide a better service or you do better things. The payment space is easy and if anybody's doing anything with international payments where its very expensive and hard to follow I think they're gonna find that that leveraging something as simple as stablecoins on one of the Layer 2 blockchains is going to be a knock it out of the park solution.
There's also the use of like a web3 wallet. Now, what's funny is that people who've never used a real web3 wallet - only gone through an exchange - won't know there are a lot of business use cases where you have multiple signers and different people approve things... They use these workflows that are created with custom software. In blockchain wallets that's that's all built in!
### Blockchain collapses previously separate system software categories into a single architecture
**Ralph:** You raise a good point about the business functions already built in: if you think about it businesses rely on three classes of systems today:
- your forward-looking systems kind of your think of your Business planning sales and stuff like that
- your present business - transactions that are happening in the present and then
- your backward looking systems, like your record-keeping, enterprise data warehouse, compliance & audits systems and so on
...these three classes represent *entirely different* categories of software solutions that evolved separately and until now businesses had to buy them separately and then pay extra to have them integrated. This creates huge siloed data and processes and just drives up enterprise costs year after year. In contrast, Blockchain based architectures seem like they just collapse these functions into a single layer, right?
**Russell:** You can set up - its academic to set up a you know a five of nine wallet where you have to have five of the nine (execs) sign something before it can be executed and you've got great software out there that lets you run it. something like you go to safe calm or you go to on chain Like on chain calm though They have great tools that provide you with ways to do multi-sig stuff stuff that would stand up to a SOC2 audit.
### Crypto wallets aren't just for individuals, they're for corporations too
**Ralph:** Yeah, there you go. So is this a is it a dumb idea to think about: Corporate wallets? We typically think a lot about individual wallets. Is there such a thing as a group wallet or should there be?
**Russell:** Oh, yeah Oh, yeah, and in fact like contract wallets are now really moving into the mainstream. And why this is important: Let's say so my company Worldchain, right? I've got an LLC and I have a contract wallet for Worldchain.
In the event that I ever sold Worldchain I could hand that wallet out and I don't hand it over to the company that bought me by giving them my keys, Right? A contract wallet is controlled by other wallet holders. So I know so I have my wallet and I'm the primary signer for Worldchain. If I sold it I could just switch it over to their corporate wallet. They're signing.
This also benefits people who are worried about like, oh, I've got all this Ethereum or tokens and what happens if I die? Well, you can actually have other people added to signers that after a certain amount of time they'll become the primary signers.
So you there's all this very sophisticated stuff that you can do that's built into contract wallets.
That changes how everything can work vs \[current state\] if you're running a company and you had this secret key that's the key to all the funds in your system And then you fired somebody who had that key, they could pull the funds out, right?
That's not a good way to run your business, right? Nobody would say that that's a good way to run it.
And so and that's where contract wallets have gone. Contract wallets are wallets for business and they enable corporate management of a wallet. They can also have execution from computers. So you can have a computer process running somewhere that queues up transactions, then the signers go in and poof done. You can even have it to where if it's under $250, it will automatically go through and you know, you have pretty robust rules or processing anything that comes in through.
**Ralph:** Corporate wallets ....I feel like we can do a whole other conversation just on that one.
### Community based vs extraction based venture capital networks
**Ralph:** But I want to talk to you about Bufficorn Ventures...so I think I figured what the Bufficorn is...I couldn't figure out what it was until I was out there in Denver driving out towards the mountains I saw this group of buffalo - beautiful, it was March, there was snow - just a beautiful sunset scene.
**Russell:** Up at Lookout mountain. That's the most accessible place where they are.
**Ralph:** Yeah, this was yeah visible right from the highway. And as soon as I saw them I was like, okay, wait a minute I think I get it: it's a Buffalo and unicorn kind of right? So...what is Bufficorn Ventures up to (and all about)?
**Russell:** So, when EthDenver started, it was just this crazy experiment. After a couple years, it was growing and the whole \[crypto\] space was growing. We created a decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) call Spork DAO - because a spork is the single best utensil you can possibly have: you can use it as a spoon, or a fork etc.
So Spork DAO was created - and instead of having a token that gets sold, it has participation incentive for those who participate...for example you attended EthDenver so you should have like 52 in your wallet, right?
If you start a startup or you are on a panel or you give a talk or you're a hacker, you win something you get a certain amount of Spork allocated to you. You can then stake that spork and become a member of this co-op.
It's a Colorado co-op that has a board and everything. As a Spork holder, you can vote on board members and other things. After about three or four years, we're like, wait a minute: there's all these companies - essentially unicorns that are coming out of EthDenver why don't we set up a set up an investment club that can work with these early stage startups, identify the ones that have legs, and give them support all through the year, give them a chance to show their demos during EthDenver, bring them eyeballs (because we have more people than any other similar conference every year). So we started Bufficorn Ventures to do just that.
We focus on incredibly early stage companies and teams coming out of the hackathon. They have a good idea but are still relatively small and need bootstrapping. And then we try to seed them up so that their products are ready to go and then they can hit EthDenver the following year, pitch at the Pitch Fest, get a round of substantial funding and grow from there.
Instead of an extractive model like most venture capital funds are, it's much more of a community fund - and in fact the the community invests in it. Spork DAO is a big investor in EthDenver so anytime we get returns they go into Spork DAO those get redistributed to members based on how much spork they have staked!
**Ralph:** Okay, yeah, you're building a community!
**Russell:** Exactly! the idea is that we're in a regenerative model: the same people who are coming and contributing to the ecosystem are getting the rewards. It's a nice virtuous cycle.
Of course, we're only three years old. It's relatively new but we have some great companies that are looking really good and you know, we've been through a couple of downturns in the in the ecosystem. It's great that we've had so many of our companies weather that so well.
It's something to see these companies that started at EthDenver, then got some funding from Bufficorn Ventures and are now like, kicking it!
**Ralph:** That's awesome SO, what if people want to get in touch with you either about Bufficorn Ventures, EthDenver or Spork DAO, What's a good way to to get in touch or follow you?
**Russell:** If you are interested in Bufficorn Ventures, go to the website [Bufficorn Ventures](http://bufficorn.ventures/?ref=s3t.org) and up in the top right corner there's a little "Get Money" link and you can apply.
If you want to just reach out to me, LinkedIn is fine
And then you can also get me on telegram at @egovguy on Telegram.
I'm always happy to talk to people about where the technology is going and what we are trying to build in the ecosystem.
### On ramps to crypto careers
**Ralph:** Russell for people that are starting out their careers - coming out of college, looking for a job - or people already in a finance career, they keep hearing about crypto and wondering if they should make a shift over. Are there some good on ramps or ways to get into the crypto?
**Russell:** There are some great courses that you can take online that if you want to get in and be a developer OR you just want to understand the technology so you have a framework that you can talk about it.
There are seven years of EthDenver content that you can look at and see what technology is interesting to you!
As I mentioned, we have camp Buidl at EthDenver every year - We have it the two days before EthDenver starts. Last year we had 250 people come and they basically go from 0 to 1 as developers.
There are some great classes on YouTube and there are international conferences as well. There's a big international community around this so just you don't even have to be a native English speaker. I mean, El Salvador adopted Bitcoin as their national currency. You know, things are happening all over the world and it's really really exciting stuff.
### How to find the kernel of a kajillion dollar idea
**Russell:** I think that where career seekers sometimes go wrong is in thinking "Oh, I'm gonna go learn to code and then I can become a founder."
You need to have the experience to know what kinds of problems that you want to solve. Be on a team, find a team. One of the greatest things about coming to EthDenver, is that you can join a hacking team and learn how to work with other people to solve a problem.
The way we win - the way anybody who's listening wins - is you find problems to solve.
Typically everybody starts with their own problems. If you look at people who come out of college, all of them do the same projects - because that's all they know.
When you start learning how to talk to people, listen to them and document what their issues are and find the friction points, you can find ways to eliminate friction and solve problems for them.
That's when you start to have the kernel of what could be a kajillion dollar idea.
Look at Craig Newmark, eBay etc - You know those started as really super simple implementations of technology. People coalesced to it. It is not about making a super technical obscure vague solution right? It is about solving problems, reducing the friction in people's lives and letting them get back to what they were trying to do!
If you can successfully do that really regardless of technology you'll be successful. Blockchain makes really cool stuff possible.
### The world's financial architecture is evolving as we shift from a theory driven to a data driven economy
**Ralph:** One last question. Interesting to me how many different voices - from the World Economic Forum, Blackrock, Azeem Azhar different industries - all seem to have this sense that the world's financial architecture is evolving and shifting from a theory driven to a data driven economy.
How do you think about the evolution of the economy / finance / money? What are you most excited about?
**Russell:** The financial barriers in the world are coming down and this is an amazing time when people in South America, Africa, Southeast Asia or Australia, everywhere can can pay and interact almost immediately is mind-blowing.
It gets me really excited to think about the problems that can be solved - problems we need to solve like energy, environment, even carbon credits...These are all things that blockchain lends itself to very well. To being able to help us find us not to solve it for us, but to help us find a solution now you have drawn an interesting distinction between crypto versus traditional money issued by government the Government's, you know, you have to remember crypto is is basically a cash system And we have built everything around a debt based system
**Ralph:** Traditional finance is an elaborate system of IOUs basically
**Russell:** ...because that was the only way we could do it. Having crypto as a cash based system actually means you have far fewer risks associated with it.
It is a brave new world! And if we could just hang in there and not let the anti crypto army push the United States into the margins, we're gonna be really really in a great spot.
**Ralph:** Yeah exciting potential how things shape up over the next year or so.
**Russell:** We live in exciting times my friend.
**Ralph:** Yeah, we'd really do.
**Russell:** Yeah, you better come out the whole time for EthDenver this time - bring the whole family with you!
**Ralph:** So when is it?
**Russell:** It'll be February - I think 24th is when Biddle week starts. Eth Denver starts on the 29th ends March 3rd.
**Ralph:** It's the biggest Ethereum event?
**Russell:** Biggest web 3 event on the planet!
---
So this wraps up our 2 part conversation on crypto with Russell Castagnaro.
To continue learning and differentiating yourself, be sure to sign up for S3T Full Access:
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*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Mentions should not be construed as endorsements. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### 🦬 🦄 Buffaloes, Unicorns, Mountains, BTC & Eth: a crypto conversation with Russell Castagnaro Part 1
URL: https://www.s3t.org/crypto_convo_part1/
Last updated: 2024-08-30T19:06:19.000Z
### *🎧* [*Listen to this conversation on the S3T Podcast!*](https://open.spotify.com/episode/3pyzYVNBeal1DP698HtEEf?ref=s3t.org)
###
**Happy Friday! I am so excited about this week's special edition* \- we are fortunate to have with us Russell Castagnaro, the founder of Wampei, one of the first Bitcoin payments companies, as well as the founding partner of Bufficorn Ventures, a web3 venture portfolio.*
*Russell has a practical background in software, government, privacy, security and crypto...in that order. This gives him a unique clear-eyed ability to sort the wheat from the chaff in the emerging crypto and web3 industry.*
###
**Change Leadership Context:**
- We are hurtling into new economic territory, as old financial approaches show their age, and new financial building blocks are being invented and tested.
- It is more important than ever for change leaders to be familiar with blockchain based architectures, crypto and web3 - and more importantly - and be able to discern between ideas that are outright scams vs well intention but doomed vs directionally correct and on track to bring beneficial change.
This 2 part crypto conversation with Russell Castagnaro offers the perfect practical learning opportunity for change leaders who need to understand how the financial architecture of the world is evolving.
To aid readability I've lightly edited the audio transcript and added topical headers. I've also added a handy "What you learned" recap at the end.
### Welcome and initial remarks on Eth Denver the largest Web3 conference - a pulse on the web3 industry
**Ralph:** Great to see you again Russell! I was really bummed I wasn't able to go to the Eth Denver convention this year. Last year was really awesome, and so I'm just curious how it was. Any big themes?
**Russell:** The coolest part, which I think is seeing all the startups - and what comes out of the hackathon.
You know, Eth Denver started at its core as a hackathon, and then everything else built up around it, which is a little different than most of the other events. Last year was also our first year at the new venue. So this year, we understood the lay of the land a lot better.
We did, like, if you remember, the Buidl Hub, which is that Buidl Week that was going on. That was all in a separate location, and so we essentially had to move everything from that location to the main location at the National Western. Anyway, all that stuff was worked out.
We had around 22,000 people at Eth Denver, and the different associated side events were, I think, some ridiculous number, like over 400 side events!
Then we also ran the BuffiTank PitchFest, which was before the closing ceremonies. And that was really great. We had some freaking fantastic teams!
We went on to fund three of them, and we'll probably fund a few more from Bufficorn Ventures. And I think all around, it was just fantastic.
**Ralph:** If someone's never attended a crypto conference, is Eth Denver a good one for first-timers?
**Russell:** Almost half of our attendees every year are new! And so we have this thing called Camp Buidl, which allows you to get trained by some of the biggest names anywhere for free, three days of training, taking you from zero to one in either Dev or Design tracks.
And many people come back and say, oh yeah, I went on to get a new job, or I changed the way my job worked, or changed my life. So it's an inspiring thing.
**Ralph:** Yeah, and we want to talk a little bit about Bufficorn Ventures, too, in a second. The one thing I will say about, in 2023, when I was there, what really stood out to me was the teams that I talked to were all talking about the need for a good user experience and compliance.
So I was hearing compliance and UX, and user-friendly design, user-friendly payment experience - Not themes that I previously associated with the crypto space.
And so I'm wondering, were there other themes like that this year?
**Russell:** Yeah, I think that people were feeling pretty good on the heels of the Bitcoin ETF, FIT21, and some of the other legislation that had been going through, even though Gensler is against anything that's got a C and an O in it - I guess that means he's against me, too, yikes. \[Like the word Crypto, Russell's last name *Castagnaro* also begins with a C and ends with an O\].
**Ralph:** How are you feeling about the industry as a whole? Any kind of pulse that you were probably able to take there at the conference?
### What's exciting and what's frustrating in crypto right now
**Russell:** Half of me was really excited, and half of me was really pissed, I'll be honest.
There was this energy and understanding from a lot of the people who have been in it for a while that, holy crap, the Web3 ecosystem has reached the point where we really can compete with Web2 to do a lot of things that Web2 can't do particularly well.
**Ralph:** Web3 can do it better.
**Russell:** Really really well, and really cost-effectively. And so there are teams that are going out trying to build that stuff, *and at the same time*, 95% of the projects that you see are scams - not necessarily at Eth Denver - but they're getting a lot of press, because they are making big promises.
There's a group of investors, developers and founders who are like 'lets take advantage of as many people as we can', which is, and this is my opinion, the memecoin bullshit that's out there, largely a pump-and-dump scheme that now allows VCs that are interested to do a pump-and-dump too.
In the old days, like two years ago and further, when you had a scammy coin or a meme coin, you put it out there, you got a bunch of value, the team itself had a bunch of the coins, they would sell, they would come off and make some money, and then they would dump and everybody would be screwed.
**Ralph:** Right.
**Russell:** And so now what's happened is that the VCs have realized that they can get in, they can put some money into a team that's going to do a bunch of meme coins, a lot of them work. They put a cliff so the team can't, it's a lockout period, so they can't sell their tokens during the pump, *but the VCs can*.
So they're going to triple their money in two months.
**Ralph:** Yep.
**Russell:** And then they're out. They've extracted the value from everyone. So I really am very frustrated with those actors who have been doing that.
And at the same time, I'm extremely excited about the teams that are making things that really, really work.
### Payments + Identity = Superpower
**Russell:** You know me, I'm a payments guy. I think payments are kind of where it all starts and stops.
And then you combine it with identity and suddenly you've got like this huge new superpower.
In the past, you could do fully collateralized loans with crypto. Those are the things that automatically get called and everything. And one of the teams, OpenDollar, has come up with a way to resolve the past dilemma: in the past, if you wanted to sell that, you had to liquidate. You couldn't sell that position. You had to just liquidate it, and that was the only way out. Imagine if you had to do that when you get a house mortgage or a car mortgage or something. All the loans that you get, that are collateralized, are resold on a secondary market multiple times.
And so these guys basically made a vault that you now have that you can sell and you can transfer - leveraging smart contracts!
> It's was like the 3M post-it note moment - the post-it note for investments!
And then like NFTs ...NFTs are cool, but don't people just like stickers? It doesn't need to be an investment. It can just be a cool thing that you get when you go see a band. But now if you get one of their stickers that's an NFT in the back end, it's not like it's going to go increase in value enormously. But now you've got a way of proving that you came to this event and bought the sticker there.
**Ralph:** Affinity play.
**Russell:** Yeah.
And then Smart Fund is doing this where in the space of minutes, you can set up an SPV, a special purpose vehicle for all sorts of different investments, whether they're crypto or real world, have an on-ramp for whether it's crypto or conventional. And it's totally compliant with investment rules. So those are really cool.
And then finally, the ticketing systems that are out there are really starting to look impressive enough.
Once crypto is out there and whether you're using it as a conventional token, the way most people think of it as an investment, as a security or using it as a utility or a function of patronage, there are really, really cool applications that are now coming out that I think make the world a better place.
**Ralph:** There's a distinction between the builders and the exploiters. People who are building things that represent an improved way of doing finance and making an economy work in the world. I've always had admiration for folks like yourself and many others who were just patiently building better ways to run the world.
### AI was in a "percolating" stage for a long time before it took off...is crypto like this?
**Ralph:** You know, that was one question I was going to ask you too, Russell:
AI percolated sort of for a long, insanely long time. Like my father-in-law, I think you met him. He was working on something that was like, you know, AI driven models for, you know, how a battle would turn out or something for defense.
And all that stuff was going along for decades and then all of a sudden we have this sort of like explosion of functionality.
Is there something like that in crypto, that we need to be prepared to be patient for a while?
Because imagine the people who were in AI in 1993\. If you could go back and pat them on the back and say, Look, be patient, okay? It's going to be another, like, 20 years but then it's just going to be amazing!
What do you think that's like for crypto? Are we in something like that or is it a little different?
**Russell:** I mean, first, I think it's a great study on human nature. When you look at things like AI, we'll see if fusion turns into this kind of thing, but AI was certainly this way, which is: the advances were relatively substantial, but tiny... until they weren't, right?
Exponential growth is like this and humans don't think in terms of exponential growth. It's not something that we are used to seeing and understanding.
It's the same reason why if someone says, Hey, I will, I will pay you a hundred dollars a day for the next year OR I'll give you 1 cent and I'll double it every day, intuitively people think "I'm taking a hundred dollars a day", right?
But you're going to be a multimillionaire if you take the doubling.
**Ralph:** Yeah. In about 30 days or so.
**Russell:** Right. You know, so, so I think that this is a great example of how **once you start noticing something that is growing exponentially, it's too late.**
It's the same, you know, on the other opposite side of it, it's the same thing that, that, that everybody that's talking about the environment is saying, like once, once these changes hit that tipping point, we have to start to start the curve over at zero again, have this really slow growth in the solutions.
So, so I think the problem isn't that AI was slow, AI was doing what needed to be done. And it took time and it took computing power to evolve, to where it needed to be. Clearly it's a lot, it approximates something a lot closer to exponential growth than the kind of growth that we're used to. It's not linear for sure.
### What is the anti-crypto crowd failing to understand about crypto?
The problem that Senator Warren's army and all miss: if you look at minerals, let's talk gold or silver or something like that. If you're only talking about the value of gold in terms of mining - I'm going to get gold and I'm going to sell gold...the truth of it is, is that gold and precious metals *do a lot more*...they're worth a lot more than what they're worth coming out of the ground, right? You can make high tech equipment, you can use them to make fuel cells happen. You can use them to be catalysts. They enable so many other things - their ecosystems and their actual value to society is much more than the value of digging those things out of the ground.
**Ralph:** It's so much more than just, "Oh, I have an Ethereum coin that's worth this much today." Let's think about this as a building block *and what can I *build* with it?*
**Russell:** Right.
### The differences between Bitcoin and Ethereum
**Ralph:** If I recall, you started off with a payments company, it was Bitcoin based and now more recently, a lot of your work is focused in Ethereum.
How do you advise people to think about and understand those two?
**Russell:** Yeah, I think that there are some fundamental differences and, and some of the Bitcoin maxis might not, um, not necessarily agree with me on this, but Bitcoin is programmable money, right? Natively digital money.
So at no point are you required to do an analog off ramp or on ramp with Bitcoin, right?
It depends on cryptography and same kind of technology that the Ethereum does, but it's really trying to solve the problem of payments and that is an amazing thing in and of itself that you can send any amount of money anywhere in the world in seconds and they can spend it faster than anything that existed more than 10 years ago, right?
I think the big failing of Bitcoin is that we as technologists, we're so excited that we solved these previously, um, unsolvable problems, uh, that we talked about the technology instead of just getting people set up to do it.
And you know, with Wampei, I was going around giving people 50 cents in Bitcoin and showing them, Look, *my kids* can set you up with a wallet and you can be using it for payment purposes.
**Ralph:** Yeah
**Russell:** And what's enormously powerful now where Ethereum comes in is it's much more, a much more generic approach to solving these problems. It's not really meant to be just money.
It's meant to be a whole lot more, you know, it's programmable block space essentially and smart contract and these things that, that weren't, didn't, weren't a part of Bitcoin.
You had very limited ability and as Bitcoin has gotten older and older, they've actually taken functionality out of Bitcoin to make it easier to maintain.
And the kind of computing that you can do using Bitcoin, the virtual machine versus Ethereum and Ethereum virtual machines is, is, you can do much more complex work, um, that requires a lot more CPU in Ethereum.
So you can do much more complicated things. And that's why smart contracts are one of the things that you really talk about in a big way on for, for Ethereum.
One of the reasons I don't have as much of a problem with Bitcoin ETFs is because it is a payment method and in that respect, it makes more sense to me.
What would happen if you made a Wheat ETF? Well, the price of wheat would go way up and people would suffer because they couldn't get wheat. They'd have to go to alternatives.
\[Note: We didn't go down this path in the conversation, but it feels like this Wheat ETF is an analogy to the housing affordability problem - when something is being used as a necessary good (food, shelter) AND as an investment at the same time, by people in different wealth classes, bad things happen. Another important conversation for another time.\]
### The 3 Golden Rules for evaluating crypto use cases for your company
**Ralph:** So for the companies thinking, *should we budget something in 2025 to either have our team spend part of their time exploring this, or we should look at some vendors*, what would you advise?
**Russell:** Well, I think you have to look at 1\. the problems that you have, you know, as with any business and 2\. what gives you an advantage over any of your competitors, and 3\. what lowers the cost of doing business for you?
And so I think much like anything else, um, if you try to apply technology without thinking about those 3 golden rules, then you've, you've lost.
**Ralph:** Right.
**Russell:** So from a standpoint of like, do you accept payments or should you accept stable coins or something?
There are a few questions you can ask: like how much are you paying now to do payments? You know, how much do you pay for fraud? *Well, it's actually costing us seven and a half percent to, um, to process payments.* That means that your margins have to be more than seven and a half percent to break even.
So, so if you look at something like *how much would it cost me to accept stable stable coins or Bitcoin?*, well, you're not going to have fraud because the payment is going person to person.
**Ralph:** Right.
**Russell:** It's going from wallet to wallet. So it goes directly to you. So you don't ever have to ship anything until you know the money's in the bank. And it's coming from that person directly.
So, so that's like the first way I'd say, okay, should you be in on that? And that's the payment argument.
Um, another would be like, are you a company that is, you know, doing lots of international transfers where time is the issue?
Um, if you need to get money sooner, if you need to get assets sooner and confirm things sooner, well, blockchain is going to be your friend, whether it's payments or whether it's confirming things are going through because the real magic behind the blockchain chain is this consensus mechanism in when you're talking about Bitcoin, you're talking about Ethereum, the real magic here, the real thing that, you know, if you're at all technical gives you, like, it gives you a tingly sense in your spine is the nodes, the people who are running the software, right?
Within seconds, they have agreement with people who are running nodes on other parts of the, of the world.
Now, if you've ever been in a company that has something like, um, like an inventory management system, and it's got, sources all over the world, but they pay a lot of money to have replicated databases that keep everything in sync.
Instead, you can use this open source available method for maintaining the maintenance.
**Ralph:** I have heard IT leaders who felt like they got burned by some kind of misadventure with blockchain maybe back in the 2016, 2017 era.
**Russell:** Yeah. IBM selling the shit out of it when there was nothing,
**Ralph:** Yes so these folks are like, Oh, really, this is coming around again?? So I think it's important to explain what has changed.
Many of these \[early blockchain ideas\] were very data driven. It was all about, "this will solve all our data problems." And then of course, your data people would come in and go, "Wait a minute, where's the data going to be? And who's going to have access to it? And how do we know it's consistent? And are you sure that thing can hold all the data??"
So then it just sort of dissolved into like, Oh boy, we now have to go explain what we spent all this money on and we don't have anything to show for it.
You know, coming around again now, it feels - even just what you're sharing now - it feels much more finance driven.
**Russell:** So let me, so now I'm getting to the parts that you're, this is exactly what you're talking about.
I remember the enterprise blockchain space, which I do use those air quotes on purpose is that people would talk about putting their data on the blockchain, which is just fricking dumb. 'Let's use the slowest, most expensive possible database to store really important data.'
That doesn't make any sense, right? That's not what the blockchain is really there for. That's why there's not a lot of space allocated for that, right? So normally you store *proofs*.
One of the other, the other things that blockchain really enables that is remarkable is independent verification.
We all have, you know, we're all used to websites we go to HTTPS, so it's secured and all that technology is there. We're used to digital signing, digitally signing things and what an electronic signature is that those have been around for a long time. And when you need to prove a fact, you now no longer have to go back to the source to prove it.
So you can have a verifiable credential or an Ethereum attestation or even something more custom that stores up on the chain, just a hash or, you know, a proof of something that you can use to say, Oh yeah, this is the document that you present. This is a document that's been issued by the DMV that says that you are over 21 and it's been signed and it's proven.
This is like world changing technology to eliminate the need for manual verification or even that you as a verifier have to have 24 by seven software up and running to allow people to validate your, your information, right? The information that you've issued, right?
So the book that notary public has, that they store information in: an electronic version of that can be the blockchain.
Like, you know, you want to know whether or not this particular video clip is authentic. When was it generated?
Well, you could actually use blockchain to prove the, prove the actual validity that this was actually up, you know, somebody uploaded a signature of the, you know, a signature that proves this document was public and owned by the, whoever owns that wallet, right?
But there's another part that I think is even more exciting and it's something that's leverageable with digital identity. I launched and ran the the digital driver's license program in Colorado called My Colorado.
The last, last thing I'll mention on this is what is the real game changer is that right now, if you, and this is typical of a web two platform, you want to use Amazon, you log in, you have a login with them. All your information is stored there, your credit card information, they have custody of everything about you.
And then they make payments on your behalf and all that stuff that's happening. There is no data that you have that Amazon does not, it is all, you know, it is all there. And, and there are, you know, lots and lots of examples of where there was no trusted way to get information from one place to another.
So let's say you go and you go to an insurance company and you want to get car insurance. Well, in order to get that quote, you're going to probably have to send them a picture of your driver's license front and back. They're going to get that. You're going to sign something that says you give them permission to do it.
They're going to go with to a data aggregator, like a LexisNexis or somebody and say, okay, we need a record for this. They're going to go to a third party who represents the states, and then they're going to process that.
Then they're going to pull the record from the DMV and they're going to transfer it back all through that chain, finally, to where it goes to the insurance company.
You can imagine how many honeypots of data that's just dying to be stolen and just how inefficient it is.
**Ralph:** I'm sure you're hearing about the ransomware attacks, right? There's this sense that we can't keep storing data in these centralized buckets where it just sits there begging for somebody to come and steal it, right?
**Russell:** But now, that all changes. You no longer need to do that. So I can have information that's stored. Let's say it's my credentials from the DMV, to keep it nice and simple. I can then find that, put a proof up on the chain with some software, and then share that over to the insurance company directly.
Now, they got it a lot faster. They got it directly from me, and they can prove that it's been signed by the DMV. And there's nobody in between that's going to take money out of the thing, and there's no hacking option.
**Ralph:** Right - I think about the healthcare event where we had a middleman player that paralyzed the whole industry because of that. And so this is helping reduce that.
**Russell:** Yeah. And everything, like when you think about getting, you know, how you work with Amazon, how you work with any platform that you use, all that, like, okay, well, what if I didn't, what if Amazon didn't have all my payment information?
I could just send them the payment directly, right? **How would that change the way I do things?**
CONTINUED NEXT WEEK!
*This has been the first segment of the Crypto Conversation with Russell Castagnaro. The next segment will be published in the next edition of S3T.*
###
**What You Learned: Key Takeaways from this first segment**
1. **Eth Denver Overview**: Eth Denver is a unique crypto conference that started as a hackathon and has grown to attract around 22,000 attendees with over 400 side events. The conference highlights innovation, with major themes including user experience, compliance, and the evolution of Web3.
2. **Industry Pulse**: There is a growing recognition that the Web3 ecosystem is maturing and can now compete with Web2, particularly in areas where Web2 falls short. However, there is also frustration with the proliferation of scams and pump-and-dump schemes in the crypto space.
3. **Emerging Innovations**: The conference showcased innovative solutions, such as OpenDollar's approach to collateralized loans, Smart Fund's SPV setup, and new ticketing systems, all leveraging blockchain technology for practical, real-world applications.
4. **Bitcoin vs. Ethereum**: Bitcoin is primarily focused on payments and is seen as "programmable money," while Ethereum offers a more versatile platform for complex applications, particularly through smart contracts.
5. **Blockchain Beyond Payments**: Blockchain's real potential lies in independent verification, reducing the need for centralized data storage, and enhancing digital identity. This can revolutionize industries like insurance and healthcare by providing faster, more secure transactions without intermediaries.
6. **Exponential Growth**: Just as AI saw exponential growth after years of development, the crypto industry might be on the cusp of a similar breakthrough, where the true potential of blockchain technology becomes widely recognized and adopted.
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice, and no offers for securities or investment opportunities are intended. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed or may have interests in companies mentioned.*
### 🌍 S3T Aug 23 - Love it or hate it $ change is coming
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-aug-23-love-it-or-hate-it-change-is-coming-2/
Last updated: 2024-08-23T05:28:36.000Z
*Welcome to S3T, the essential newsletter, podcast, and learning platform for change leaders.*
*S3T shares 21st century leadership skills set in the context of emerging tech and the evolving economy. This is an unusual combination of skills, not usually taught together, but critical for the global and local challenges we face today.*
*Every week in the S3T newsletter and podcast we review the top developments and insights you need to stay ahead of the curve, build your ethics & leadership skills, and drive intentional beneficial innovation.*
**🎧** [**Listen to this episode on the S3T Podcast**](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org) **\-** *Be sure to follow the S3T podcast so you never miss a show!*
## Highlights from this edition of S3T:
- 🌍 Calls for reform in global financial architecture are growing due to the unsustainable current system.
- 📊 BlackRock tracks the evolving future of finance as a key "mega force."
- 🏦 New digital currencies could transform the financial landscape, challenging traditional debt-based systems.
- 🧑🎓 College closures are increasing as more people question the value of higher education and student loans.
- 💼 Startup world is facing a "capital crunch" with a surge in bankruptcies and failures.
- 💰 Saudi Arabia is shifting investment interests away from the US, raising questions about the petro-dollar agreement.
- 🚀 Change leadership training is ideal for those looking to make a difference in their careers, especially if they feel something needs changing in their community or industry.
##
## Understanding the evolving financial architecture of the world's economy
A rising chorus of voices - from different sectors of global finance - are either calling for, or anticipating significant change in the world's financial architecture. There is a strong sense that the clock is running out on the current architecture, which appears to be on an unsustainable course.
### The messaging about change is coming from disparate sources that don't usually align on much:
- The evolving [future of finance](https://www.blackrock.com/corporate/insights/blackrock-investment-institute/publications/mega-forces/future-of-finance?ref=s3t.org) is one of the five "mega forces" that Black Rock tracks.
- Brookings provides this summary of the different calls for [reform of the world's financial architecture](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/reforms-for-a-21st-century-global-financial-architecture/?ref=s3t.org).
- [Carnegie Endowment with another look at GFAR](https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/04/tomorrows-global-financial-architecture-a-reform-plan-for-people-and-planet?lang=en&ref=s3t.org) (Global Financial Architecture Reform)
- This [Levy Economics Institute deeper dive](https://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/wp%5F935.pdf?ref=s3t.org) (PDF) looks at the evolving world economy through the lens of the lopsided impacts and costs to emerging economies.
- Dialogue Earth [from a climate change and *climate finance* perspective](https://dialogue.earth/en/climate/climate-finance-needs-improved-international-financial-architecture/?ref=s3t.org) \- climate finance refers to the specific arrangements for coping with the impacts of climate change.
### The Fault Line
New digital currencies and cryptocurrencies are cash-based rather than debt-based as noted this week by Russell Castagnaro of [Bufficorn Ventures](https://bufficorn.ventures/?ref=s3t.org). This is an important point - and marks the reason why these new capabilities have the potential to transform the financial landscape: they can provide more stable, transparent and cost efficient alternative to traditional debt based finance instruments, which function like a giant apparatus of IOUs.
Some will love this and some will hate it: the inherent IOU structure of the world's current financial architecture creates opportunities for the entrenched players to enrich themselves while locking other players into marginalized debt-plagued status. Anything that threatens the self-enrichment status quo is going to catch the attention and ire of the incumbents.
---
## Startling rise in college closures
[College closures are way up as more and more question the value of college](https://sherwood.news/power/college-closures-in-the-us-have-risen-sharply-in-the-last-8-years?ref=s3t.org). The price is more than the return in wages. Only 22% believe school loans are worth it.
Even tech services are leaning into the trend with [alternative education and upskilling advice like this](https://raso360.com/blog/build-a-healthy-tech-workforce-from-alternative-education-pathways/?ref=s3t.org) example for talent managers.
---
## Macro Finance: Hangover, Extinction, Crunch whatever you call it, it happened
Back in Jan 2023, I shared an outlook on the "[capital crunch](https://www.s3t.org/s3t-sunday-jan-22/)" as the era of easy money began to close. Around the same time Tom Loverro's predicted a "mass extinction event" coming to the startup world:
While some tried to downplay the issue ([Guardian: "*No startups are not facing a mass extinction event*](https://www.theguardian.com/global/2023/jul/16/no-startup-mass-extinction?ref=s3t.org)"), the last 18 months have been tough (see this [Dec 2023 eulogy](https://techcrunch.com/2023/12/30/remembering-the-startups-we-lost-in-2023/?ref=s3t.org)) and new [emerging data shows the devastating results](https://www.pymnts.com/startups/2024/venture-backed-startups-going-bankrupt-at-alarming-rate/?ref=s3t.org):
- Startup bankruptcies were 7x higher in Q1 2024
- Startup failures surged 60% in the past year
FT also covered the issue from the perspective of [the "hangover" from the boom years](https://www.ft.com/content/2808ad4c-783f-4475-bcda-bddc0299095e?ref=s3t.org).
The capital crunch is continuing with the [Saudis now refocusing their investment interests closer to home](https://www.ft.com/content/e22b512e-f5c0-43d8-86ce-a9e014aa4e55?ref=s3t.org) \- after a previous reputation as a source for easy money.
Saudis are trying to increase their non-US partnerships in today's multi-polar world. While rumors of an "expired petro-dollar agreement" are likely overblown, [Saudi Arabia definitely seems to be drifting away from the US and the dollar](https://mises.org/mises-wire/saudi-arabia-drifts-away-washington-and-dollar?ref=s3t.org).
---
### The next generation of online advertising: Perplexity takes the leap.
Perplexity - one of the more popular Gen AI chat agents known for research friendly functionality - [says it plans to start running ads in Q4](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/22/perplexity-ai-plans-to-start-running-search-ads-in-fourth-quarter.html?ref=s3t.org), hoping to catch the AI search wave. tec[ChatPDF](https://www.chatpdf.com/?ref=s3t.org) has been running ads for some time now. Across the US, most companies [now cite AI as a risk](https://www.s3t.org/s3t-aug-16-green-growth-in-red-states-and-antarctica-ai-risk-list-cosine-genie-2/).
### Blockchain unicorn for Intellectual Property protection
Story, [a blockchain startup raised 80M with a 2.25B valuation](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/21/blockchain-startup-story-raises-funds-from-a16z-to-stop-ip-theft-by-ai.html?ref=s3t.org) based on a strategy to empower IP creators and holders prove their ownership, and protect from IP theft. This kind of solution also appears to be one of the best options for distinguishing content from a known creator vs content from a non-human creator, or malicious actor wishing to conceal the true source of an instance of content.
### Politics & Tech
As the Democratic National Convention unfolds this week, [political campaigns are steering clear of AI solutions](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/21/technology/ai-election-campaigns.html?ref=s3t.org) reports the NYT. That hasn't stopped some of the - ok one of the - [candidates from using AI generated deep fakes](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/aug/19/trump-ai-swift-harris-musk-deepfake-images?ref=s3t.org).
[Organizations intent on diversifying tech are struggling](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/08/19/silicon-valley-dei-backlash/?ref=s3t.org) amid Silicon Valley's rightward shift, and DEI-bashing fad.
Photo by [Vidar Nordli-Mathisen](https://unsplash.com/@vidarnm?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## AI & Nature
The Earth Species Project is [using AI to better understand non-human communication](https://parley.tv/journal/earth-species?ref=s3t.org) \- hoping to translate animal sounds and movements into language we can understand.
## Change Leadership: How do I know that Change Leadership Learning Track is right for me?
S3T is all about equipping people for the change leadership era, by helping people learn the change leadership skillset.
I see three types of people benefitting from the change leadership skillset:
1\. People just starting their careers, looking for ways to differentiate themselves and have an impact.
2\. People established in their careers but seeing unfortunate things in their companies or industries that they’d like to change. They don't want to perpetuate the status quo, and are trying to understand how they can drive change in their regulated industry.
3\. People fully dedicated to change leadership - they are very clear about the change that is needed - and they want to continue sharpening their effectiveness and learn with a likeminded community of change leaders.
**That said, I also see people who are hesitant and unsure. If that's you, then what I want to share here today is just for you:**
If you are feeling hesitant about signing up for change leadership training, here is why that’s perfectly normal and why you can take your time to see what’s right for you.
Maybe you're thinking, "Why should I take on something new when I'm already juggling so much just to keep up with my current responsibilities?" That's a completely valid concern.
But let me ask you this: Have you ever had that feeling that there should be more to your work than just completing tasks day in and day out? Do you ever see things in your job—whether it's a flawed process, a product issue, or even something bigger within your company—that just don't sit right with you? If you find yourself wishing you could make a difference, that’s a sign that you’re ready for this journey.
Change leadership isn’t about having all the answers from the start; it's about learning to see those opportunities for improvement and knowing how to rally others around those changes. If you're already noticing things that you wish were different, that’s the first step. It shows that you’re ready to grow into a leader who can help make those changes happen.
However, if you’re at a place where you’re content with how things are and don’t feel the need to take on more responsibility, that’s okay too. This training might not be the right fit for you right now. But keep in mind that someday you might start seeing things that you'd like to change—and when that time comes, this training could be exactly what you need.
Remember, it’s not about being ready from the get-go; it’s about being willing to start the journey when you feel that pull to make a difference. And if you’re feeling that now, you’re more ready than you think.
If you're ready to start, you can start now, by signing up for S3T Full Access, which gives you access to all of the learning resources on the S3T Platform, including the Change Leadership Learning Series, which takes you on a step by step journey from defining and understanding Change Leadership, developing skills and applying them successfully to the challenging situations you and your team face.
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed.*
### 🎢 S3T Aug 16 - Green growth in Red States, and Antarctica, AI Risk List, Cosine Genie...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-aug-16-green-growth-in-red-states-and-antarctica-ai-risk-list-cosine-genie-2/
Last updated: 2024-08-16T05:27:59.000Z
*Welcome to S3T, the essential newsletter, podcast, and learning platform for change leaders. Every week we review the top developments and insights you need to stay ahead of the curve, build your ethics & leadership skills, and drive intentional beneficial innovation.*
**🎧** [**Listen to this episode on the S3T Podcast**](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org) **\-** *Be sure to follow the S3T podcast so you never miss a show!*
## In this edition of S3T:
1. 🎯 **Stay Ahead of the Curve**: S3T delivers top insights and developments weekly to keep you on the cutting edge of change leadership and innovation.
2. 📉 **Economic Complexity**: Understand the shifting economic landscape, with a focus on the Federal Reserve's evolving approach to inflation and the impact of corporate pricing power.
3. 🌱 **Green Energy Impact**: Red states are major beneficiaries of green energy investments from the Inflation Reduction Act, challenging traditional political stances.
4. 📊 **AI Risk Management**: Leverage MIT’s comprehensive AI Risk Repository, a critical tool for navigating the complex risks associated with AI implementation.
5. 🤖 **AI Rivalry & Risks**: The intense competition between Snowflake and Databricks in AI could lead to risky customer experiences due to hasty acquisitions and aggressive strategies.
6. 🛠️ **AI Coding Tools - Trust but Debug**: While AI coding tools are improving, they still require skilled developers to ensure quality, emphasizing the importance of technical expertise.
7. 🧠 **Economic Literacy**: Economic awareness is vital in change leadership as traditional frameworks evolve due to AI, robotics, and renewable energy by 2030.
8. 🌍 **Environmental Insights**: Surprising findings from Antarctica's first vegetation survey highlight the planet's changing environment.
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed.*
## The ups & downs, the credit & the blame
Last week the market was **convinced** we were plunging into a recession and demanding immediate rate cuts.
This [week sales rose and jobless claims fell](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/latest-economic-data-cools-recession-worries-141217185.html?ref=s3t.org) \- and the market was like, oh, well, we can wait til September for the rate cuts. We might have overreacted just a little.
Headline inflation - the figure favored by the Federal Reserve - [dropped to 2.9%](https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2024/08/14/cpi-inflation-comes-in-at-29-better-than-expectations-with-interest-rate-cuts-in-focus/?ref=s3t.org) \- as [companies slash prices](https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/discounts-are-keeping-consumers-spending-summer-rcna163034?ref=s3t.org) to retain cost-conscious consumers facing a job market riddled [with hiring freezes](https://www.theladders.com/career-advice/why-is-it-so-hard-to-find-a-job-in-2024-tips-to-help-you-beat-the-odds?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=Companies%20are%20cautious%20about%20expanding,and%20more%20stringent%20hiring%20processes.&text=Hiring%20Freezes%3A%20Many%20companies%20have,or%20reduced%20their%20hiring%20budgets.). The drop raised hopes of interest rate cuts in September.
**Both sides of the political spectrum jumped on the news:**
- The [White House's explanation](https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/written-materials/2024/08/14/july-2024-cpi-report/?ref=s3t.org) (good charts in here btw) sought to take credit for an improving economy - while acknowledging further down in the post that this is a mixed situation and that families are struggling.
- The other side issued official [House of Representatives press releases like this one](https://budget.house.gov/press-release/inflation-update-chairman-arrington-statement-on-july-cpi-report?ref=s3t.org) (a thinly veiled political ad appearing in the top of Google search results) which correctly point out the cumulative impact of *perennial inflation* but incorrectly pin the blame solely on the current administration - while conveniently ignoring the GOPs significant contributions to the problem.
For decades, corporate tax cuts and tax loopholes combined with near zero constraints on corporate pricing power have contributed to the perennial inflation problem. Both parties share blame.
**Corrective actions could start with:**
- The Federal Reserve upgrading its approach to measuring inflation so that it meaningfully tracks the affordability issues experienced by families and individuals.
- Both parties getting their heads around the issue of corporate pricing power and regulated monopolies and their combined role in perennial inflation. This issue impacts the constituents of both parties in very negative ways.
### One big contributor to jobs...oh so inconvenient
[Red states are the biggest beneficiaries of jobs and dollars](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-opinion-biden-ira-sends-green-energy-investment-republican-districts/?ref=s3t.org) from the green energy investments of the Inflation Reduction Act and [some Republicans are rethinking their opposition to the IRA](https://www.latitudemedia.com/news/its-conservative-states-that-benefit-most-from-the-ira?ref=s3t.org). See [green energy projects bringing jobs to North and South Carolina](https://www.wsoctv.com/news/local/two-years-after-inflation-reduction-act-carolinas-see-billions-manufacturing-investments/VHZ7ZN65DJGATKFTDGCJBD4ZHY/?ref=s3t.org). As noted by the Bloomberg info graphic, ([go here for interactive version](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-opinion-biden-ira-sends-green-energy-investment-republican-districts/?ref=s3t.org)) GOP districts enjoy almost 4x more dollars from the Inflation Reduction Act.
IRA Projects & Dollars for Red vs Blue Districts. [Courtesy of Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-opinion-biden-ira-sends-green-energy-investment-republican-districts/?ref=s3t.org).
###
## AI Risk Database
So most people by now are aware of the risk in AI and many companies are starting to talk about this - which is great - but if you ever been part of these meetings you'll know that these tend to be ad hoc lists of the risks that people happen to be able to think of in the moment. You can't help but wonder, shouldn't there be a universal AI risk database that we all can use and contribute to?
Well good news...
**MIT has released a living database of 700 categorized risks associated with different uses of AI.** The [AI Risk Repository](https://airisk.mit.edu/?ref=s3t.org) provides and organized view of how, when and why the risks can occur, **classified in seven domains:**
1. Discrimination & Toxicity
2. Privacy & Security
3. Misinformation
4. Malicious actors & misuse
5. Human computer interaction
6. Socioeconomic & environmental harms
7. AI system safety, failures and limitations
Having gone through the process of creating AI risk registers, I have a high regard for the work that went into this, and for the industry /society benefit it can provide. Recommend considering this as a potential benchmark or reference for any AI use your organization may be considering. Link here:
[AI Risk RepositoryNavigate the complex landscape of risks from artificial intelligence with a comprehensive database of over 700 AI risks and two taxonomies to understand the causes and domains of AI risks.](https://airisk.mit.edu/?ref=s3t.org)
Photo by [Isaac Chou](https://unsplash.com/@krzhck?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Snow vs Bricks - who wins in the next wave of AI?
Bloomberg ran a piece this week [delving into the extreme rivalry between 2 cloud platform providers Snowflake and Databricks](https://www.s3t.org/aug-9-2024/) fighting for dominance in the next wave of AI:
This next wave could be bigger and more profitable than the fluffy elusive value yielded so far from LLMs trained on Internet data. Why? Because it will be **trained on privately held data not available to the likes of Google and OpenAI.**
Some of the buyer beware cautions shared in the piece:
- Both parties show a tendency to make hasty acquisitions just to spite the other party. That could spell trouble for customers who end up using that acquired capability for mission critical needs.
- Marketing team bonus programs aimed at stealing customers from the opponent...again not a recipe for trustworthy advice.
- They both depend on well capitalized cloud providers (AWS, Microsoft, Google) who have plenty of reasons and few barriers to "Sherlocking" both Snowflake and Databricks. If Snowflake and Databricks are so distracted one upping each other, this could be a risk - especially given the "next wave of AI" kind of stakes.
---
## AI Coding Tools: Trust but debug
**Guess which AI Coding Tool is the best in the world *this week*?**
GPT40? ...Amazon Q? ....Factory Code Driod?
Answer: None of the above.
This week Cosine (a Y-Combinator startup) released a [new technical report claiming](https://cosine.sh/blog/genie-technical-report?ref=s3t.org) that its [Genie](https://cosine.sh/genie?ref=s3t.org) is the "World's best AI Software Engineer", boasting high benchmark scores and an architecture meant to mimic human problem-solving. It’s ambitious but not without flaws—like any other AI tool, it still needs a skilled developer to clean up the code.
SWE Bench results, courtesy of [Cosine](https://cosine.sh/genie?ref=s3t.org)
**Context:**
Genie was tested against the [SWE-bench](https://www.swebench.com/?ref=s3t.org) \- a benchmark for testing an LLM's ability to resolve actual software bugs that occur in the GitHub ecosystem. On August 13 OpenAI released a "[human-verified" version of the SWE-bench](https://openai.com/index/introducing-swe-bench-verified/?ref=s3t.org) where they culled out problematic / impossible to solve bugs & coding tasks. This is expected to boost the performance scores of the overall field of tools in this space.
Good question: did Genie get an advance access to this and test their tool with the human verified? Don't know. Genie also included a disclaimer at the end of their report, saying they would not be appearing on the leaderboard because their model is proprietary. And if you want to get really confused, go try to make sense of the [SWE-Bench leaderboard](https://www.swebench.com/?ref=s3t.org)'s "Lite" vs "Verified" vs Full variations.
Muddled scoreboards aside, AI coding tools are getting better, but they’re still no substitute for expertise. The tool I use most (omitting names to protect the guilty) is decent, but frequently loses track of names it gave to specific functions or variables - it later ends up calling something it never defined for instance - as well as other examples of buggy logic. As AI tools continue to evolve and go mainstream, it's reasonable to expect a productivity boost, but perhaps more for those with solid debugging skills.
**Signs of the times:** consulting companies are [pivoting from MBAs to more tech savvy job candidates](https://www.s3t.org/aug-9-2024/) because of the hype and demand for AI consulting services.
## Why economic awareness & literacy matter in change leadership
**The word's financial architecture is changing:** Raoul Paul has an interesting new piece he calls [the Economic Singularity](https://x.com/RaoulGMI/status/1823854009570222263?ref=s3t.org) \- suggesting that by 2030 traditional economic frameworks will no longer be applicable (...you mean they're still applicable now? lol) :
> "By 2030, the combined forces of AI, robotics, and renewable energy will transform every industry, challenging our conventional understanding of value, productivity, and economic growth."
This means it's important to pay attention to the data and find good vantage points that can help you track what's evolving.
One of the things we've always emphasized is the need for economic literacy. We've previously shared the [The Evolution of Economics](https://www.s3t.org/the-evolution-of-economics/) and how it's important to **rethink economics as it continues to move from a theory driven to a data driven discipline.**
I also am sharing here some of the key sources that together provide a good foundation for the S3T newsletter.
### 📊 Top Sources of Economic Indicators & Research
- [Bureau of Economic Analysis (bea.gov) -](https://www.bea.gov/?ref=s3t.org)latest economic indicators published by the US Dept of Commerce.
- [CBOE Volatility Index](https://www.cboe.com/delayed%5Fquotes/vix?ref=s3t.org) or VIX Index - a market indicator of expected volatility of the S&P 500 Index (how much the market thinks the S&P 500 Index will fluctuate in the 30 days).
- [Havre Analytics](https://www.haver.com/?ref=s3t.org) \- Succinct notes on latest economic trends and developments.
- [EPFR](https://epfr.com/insights/?ref=s3t.org) \- macro insights on fund flows and allocations tailored to quants and economists.
- [FiscalData API Documentation](https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/api-documentation/?ref=s3t.org) has open-source tools for tracking federal finance data.
- [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/?ref=s3t.org) \- job market data and indicators including a portal of [Charts for Economic News Releases](https://www.bls.gov/charts/?ref=s3t.org).
- [Consumer Price Index](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/?ref=s3t.org) (CPI) also from BLS
*For the full list plus other high value sources, click the subscribe button and sign up for full access to S3T.*
---
Photo by [Paul Carroll](https://unsplash.com/@mudmanuk?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Nature Notes
Antarctica is greener than we thought per the [first ever vegetation survey](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-024-01492-4?ref=s3t.org) of the bottom of the globe. As shown below, the team found 3 categories - vegetation, lichens and green snow algae. The comprehensive study is chock full of excellent charts and photos.
---
*Thank you for reading and sharing S3T. If you are enjoying S3T please give it a like or repost on LinkedIn or other platforms where you learn and share! This helps us with our mission of encouraging change leaders and innovators in their vital work.*
### 🐳 S3T Aug 9 - Capitalism's 'Special Room' problem, New AI buzzwords, Gov Whales
URL: https://www.s3t.org/aug-9-2024/
Last updated: 2024-08-10T22:18:21.000Z
**🎧** [**Listen to this episode on the S3T Podcast**](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org) **\-** *Be sure to follow the S3T podcast so you never miss a show!*
## In this edition of S3T:
- 📉 **Market Turmoil:** Recent market fluctuations linked to the Yen "carry trade," with stocks and crypto bouncing back slightly. Recession chances at 45% by end of 2025.
- 🏦 **Government Bitcoin Whales:** Some U.S. candidates propose holding Bitcoin as a strategic reserve. The U.S., China, and other nations already hold significant amounts.
- 🏥 **Healthcare Affordability:** The healthcare industry is being forced to rethink risk management due to financial strain and expensive treatments. New payment models are emerging, like mortgage-style plans and subscriptions.
- 📚 **Economics Critique:** Nicholas Gruen argues that economics has lost its way by focusing on scarcity, leading to harmful trade-offs, especially in healthcare. He advocates for integrating shared intentionality into economic frameworks.
- 🤖 **New AI Buzzwords:** Keep an ear out for terms like "Large Action Model (LAM)" and "Agentic AI." AI safety and security are growing investment themes, despite the mixed results from Generative AI.
- 🏛️ **Capitalism's Special Room:** Critique of how capitalism often benefits a few ("special rooms") while the majority struggle, with examples like medical debt and tax avoidance by large corporations.
- 🌍 **Getting Capitalism Right:** The need for a balanced approach to capitalism, moving beyond the false dichotomy of capitalism vs. socialism, and promoting an economy where everyone benefits.
---
*Welcome to S3T, the essential newsletter, podcast, and learning platform for change leaders. Every week we review the top developments and insights you need to stay ahead of the curve, build your ethics & leadership skills, and drive intentional beneficial innovation.*
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed.*
## Carried Away
Earlier this week the market threw a tantrum - partly linked to the Yen "carry trade" (nice short but comprehensive summary [from Havre here](https://www.haver.com/articles/charts-of-the-week-summer-storms?ref=s3t.org)). Stocks and crypto bounced, with the [Dow recovering after slightly more cheerful labor market news](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/08/economy/initial-jobless-claims-august-3/index.html?ref=s3t.org). JPMorgan sees [35% chance of recession by end of 2024](https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/jpmorgan-sees-greater-chance-us-recession-year?ref=s3t.org), 45% by end of 2025\. Mortgage [rates are falling](https://www.chicagobusiness.com/residential-real-estate/us-mortgage-rates-plunge-lowest-level-over-year?ref=s3t.org). Everyone take a deep breath.
### Governments - a new class of Bitcoin Whales?
Several candidates in the US Election have proposed that the US intentionally hold a strategic reserve of Bitcoin. The US, China and other nations already [hold surprising amounts](https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/investing/2024/08/06/donald-trump-bitcoin-stockpile-plan/74683580007/?ref=s3t.org). 🐳
Photo by [Owen Beard](https://unsplash.com/@owenbeard?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### Healthcare: New Roads to Affordability
As noted in previous editions of S3T, traditional health insurance has a limited understanding of the broader set of financial instruments that other sectors use to manage risk and cost.
Now the industry is being **forced to relearn what it knows about risk and underwriting** thanks to the unsustainable financials of US healthcare combined with the emergence of [extremely expensive but life changing treatments](https://www.economist.com/business/2019/05/21/the-global-battle-over-high-drug-prices?ref=s3t.org).
This week, the Economist [reviews some of the emerging ideas](https://www.economist.com/leaders/2024/08/01/genomic-medicines-can-cost-3m-a-dose-how-to-make-them-affordable?ref=s3t.org) \- mortgages style payment plans, Netflix style subscriptions and more.
### What ails economics
In [*How Economics Found Science …and Lost its Subject Matter*](https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/how-economics-forgot-its-subject-matter?ref=s3t.org) Nicholas Gruen digs into why the discipline of economics is so hosed up:
- Thinking of itself as "the science of scarcity" as if scarcity should be the sole organizing principle of value and finance.
- Falling into all or nothing false tradeoffs that repeatedly prove to be at odds with the messiness of reality.
**These fallacies are particularly damaging when used as a guide by financial leaders in healthcare.** Gruen asks us to critique the standard "health policy trilemma" framework taught in leading Health Economics [textbooks like this one](https://www.amazon.com.au/Health-Economics-Jay-Bhattacharya/dp/113702996X?ref=s3t.org), which asserts - with no evidence - that Health, Wealth and Equity are antithetical: the more you try to get one, the more you have to sacrifice the other.
This kind of irresponsible framing can signal to capital managers and financial leaders that it's ok to ignore health equity issues because "economics says so."
Not only is this harmful to individuals and communities, it also flies in the face of the real world case studies like Toyota's simultaneous gains in efficiency *and* quality during the 1970s-1980s. Toyota ability to improve *both* efficiency and quality defied the US auto industry's iron-clad belief that quality and efficiency were necessary tradeoffs.
Toyota was able to do what they did because they tapped into the power of [shared intentionality](https://clubtroppo.com.au/2020/05/30/culture-and-language-as-public-goods/?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=Shared%20intentionality%3A%20the%20ultimate%20form%20of%20sharing) \- the ability of people to come together to achieve something that otherwise seems unfeasible. Shared intentionality - very different from the "invisible hand" - is missing from our current status quo thinking on economics. As the world shifts from theory driven economics to data driven economics it will be crucial to factor shared intentionality into our new economic frameworks.
###
## Move over GenAI, here come new AI buzzwords
Perk up your ears, you'll probably hear these terms in Zoom calls and coffee shops this week:
- **Large Action Model (LAM)** \- a system for understanding a set of instructions from a human, then carrying them out using computer applications and web sites. [RabbitOS appears to be a leading developer](https://sbagency.medium.com/action-models-when-ai-agents-will-be-useful-8155dc841fc2?ref=s3t.org) in this space. Here is another elaborate [use case related to food production](https://themissingprompt.com/large-action-models-lams-foodtech/?ref=s3t.org).
- **Agentic AI** \- An adaptation of LAMs involving foundation models trained on decision making and planning data. [Orby AI is applying this technology](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/08/07/2925911/0/en/Orby-Launches-ActIO-the-First-Agentic-AI-Foundation-Model-to-Set-New-Industry-Leading-Performance-Benchmarks.html?ref=s3t.org) to process automation.
### AI Safety and Security continue to be investment themes
[Haize Labs, an AI safety startup](https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/general-catalyst-haize-labs-100-million-valuation?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=Founded%20less%20than%20one%20year,now%20valued%20at%20%24100%20million.&text=Haize%20Labs%2C%20an%20AI%20safety,people%20familiar%20with%20the%20deal.) founded less than one year ago, has raised a round at a 100m valuation. (Also: full list of AI startups [raising 100M or more in 2024](https://techcrunch.com/2024/07/13/heres-the-full-list-of-28-us-ai-startups-that-have-raised-100m-or-more-in-2024/?ref=s3t.org))
The focus has been on GenAI Agents (conversational bots) that *sometimes* do impressive things but frequently miss the mark and ALWAYS require vigilance. Over the course of 2024, the market has reassessed the hype over Generative AI: it's costly, runs huge energy budgets, and so far hasn't offered clear paths for consistent sustainable revenue.
SO the hedge position that many seem to be converging on is:
- **Aggressive experimentation with AI will continue**, along with astounding advancements. Big Tech companies have too much invested and too much at stake (the future of search, industry competition etc) and the federal agenda (AI arms race, chip industry)
- Applying these capabilities to real world problems will **continue to be hit or miss**. Solution providers large and small will continue to target wide ranges of use cases.
- Most firms will continue to believe they can't ignore AI, and **will continue to invest, as a mitigation against the risk of missing out on the next big competitive advantage.**
In this environment, AI Safety, Security and Governance may be a growth industry for companies and consultants who can provide compelling offerings. At least that seems to be the bet that a set of VCs and consultancies are making.
Another safety angle:[ OpenAI warns you might get "emotionally hooked" to its new voice interface:](https://www.wired.com/story/openai-voice-mode-emotional-attachment/?ref=s3t.org) “Users might form social relationships with the AI, reducing their need for human interaction—potentially benefiting lonely individuals but possibly affecting healthy relationships,”
---
****Actually, in today's capitalism, bread gets made by people standing in line for healthcare they can't afford**
## The capitalism vs socialism memes are going around X again
*Must be an election year. Sooner or later you're going to run into the old argument about capitalism vs socialism and all the emotions it brings up.*
Today’s change leaders work at the intersection of technology, finance, and social challenges. This means you will inevitably encounter challenging conversations and decisions where you’re questioning your stance on critical issues. **If you see yourself as a compassionate person who also believes in free enterprise,** you might find yourself wondering, “Where do I position myself?” It’s important to develop a perspective that aligns with your ethics without veering into unhelpful extremes.
In this discussion, I’ll offer some perspectives that give you options for creating your own informed perspective that is both balanced and ethically sound.
### Capitalism's "Special Room" Problem
If you grew up in those South Carolina summers - like I did - you'd understand why it took some folks a while to accept climate change (“Round here's been hot forever!”).
My parents couldn’t afford to air condition the whole house, so they got a small window unit, put it in one room, and kept the door closed. This became the "special room." It was refreshingly cool, the air was breathable, and it felt like a slice of heaven on earth compared to the hot stifling air in the rest of the house.
Capitalism - at least as commonly practiced in the US has a similar "special room" problem: a few live in a special room while the rest of the house is kind of miserable:
- While most in the economy fret about paying the monthly bills, [high-end trophy home sales are booming](https://www.mansionglobal.com/articles/even-as-the-rest-of-the-market-frets-u-s-trophy-home-sales-are-booming-552099ad?ref=s3t.org).
- As medical debt hits all time highs, global firms like Coca Cola get to hide billions of profits and dodge taxes - for years... [LeMonde 2015](https://mondediplo.com/openpage/trade-secrets-coca-cola-s-hidden-formula-for?ref=s3t.org), [FT Aug 7 2024](https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/why-coke-s-24b-epic-tax-battle-is-staying-hidden-20240807-p5k0hi?ref=s3t.org)
That last point is particularly galling: Did none of the smart people in the Coca Cola boardroom ever think to say *"hey, the sugary drinks we sell do cause a lot of diabetes, so maybe we should pay our full fair share of taxes, cause we're contributing to an obesity epidemic that's putting a strain on national healthcare."* ??
No probably not.
They were freed from any such responsibility the 1970 gospel of Milton Friedman, remember? The sole responsibility of a company is to profit its shareholders. In other words:
*It's ok for me to ruin* your *health, pollute your water and air, destabilize your society with extreme financial inequity, deny climate change until the hurricanes and wildfires destroy your homes - as long as I give you a profit.*
### Of course, Friedman didn't mean *exactly* that did he?
No...He probably didn't think about the *shareholders* *themselves* being put at risk by a company's actions. This was 1970 mind you. The cultural mindset that bought into the Friedman gospel saw the world neatly divided into 2 groups...
- The people who own stock (in 1970 a privileged few)
- The people who drink Coke (everyone else).
This same cultural mindset believed it was ok to provide value to one by exploiting the other.
If you find this hard to accept, go read his works in context ([full list of links here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friedman%5Fdoctrine?ref=s3t.org)). He was specifically arguing against *social responsibility of corporations*.
In this worldview, corporations should be free to exploit society by selling cigarettes, military rifles, sugary drinks - whatever the market wants - while bearing zero responsibility for the outcomes, and enjoying a full range of tax avoidance schemes not available to the average Coke drinkers who of course will have to make up the difference.
### Getting capitalism right
Don't get me wrong. I'm not against capitalism. I’m actually a fan of what capitalism can achieve when it is done right. I’m also a **big fan of being a fierce critic of capitalism in the spirit of *let’s make it work for everyone*.** Capitalism is at its best when *everyone* can participate and benefit. But when we create "special rooms" where some benefit more than others, we create problems that money can't solve, but certainly does complicate.
I also think it's probably time to retire the Capitalism vs Socialism thing. It's a false trade off. Neither of these describe what is actually going on in our economy today, nor do they accurately describe the ranges of options available to people who cooperate with intentionality.
If you'd like to see a small glimpse of how good it could be, [take a look at this mini-documentary](https://x.com/APompliano/status/1821620596070854908?ref=s3t.org) on one example of financial innovation and its far reaching impact, as shared by Anthony "Pomp" Pompliano.
**Notes on the wealth inequality and the cultural context of the Friedman Doctrine**
- In 1970, somewhere between 5%-20% of American's owned stock: 4.2% of Americans owned stock in 1965, 20% owned stock in 1990 ([Investopedia references](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/09/stocks-1950s-1970s.asp?ref=s3t.org)). 61% of Americans owned Stock in 2023 per [this Gallup survey](https://news.gallup.com/poll/266807/percentage-americans-owns-stock.aspx?ref=s3t.org).
- In 1970 the market had not yet seen Individual Retirement Accounts (1974) or Index funds (1976). ([Investopedia references](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/09/stocks-1950s-1970s.asp?ref=s3t.org))
- To learn more about data on wealth inequality, see these [9 Charts about Wealth Inequality in America](https://apps.urban.org/features/wealth-inequality-charts/?ref=s3t.org).
---
*Thank you for reading and sharing S3T. If you are enjoying S3T please give it a like or repost on LinkedIn or other platforms where you learn and share! This helps us with our mission of encouraging change leaders and innovators in their vital work.*
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### 🦮S3T Aug 2 - Being the glue, Bank cuts, Fed hints, heatflation, AI laws, tax fairness, defense, DeFi lending
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-aug-2-2024/
Last updated: 2024-08-03T00:29:42.000Z
**🎧** [**Listen to this episode on the S3T Podcast**](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org) **\-** *Be sure to follow the S3T podcast so you never miss a show!*
## In this edition of S3T:
- 📉 **Interest Rate Updates:** The Bank of England cut rates for the first time since 2020, and the US Federal Reserve hinted at potential rate cuts in September, amid concerns from Goldman Sachs about the timing.
- 📉 **Market Concerns:** Stocks fell due to rising jobless rates and a decline in manufacturing, but mortgage rates are easing.
- 🛡️ **US Defense Readiness:** A bi-partisan commission's report highlights the grim state of US military readiness, emphasizing the need for balanced defense spending despite economic constraints.
- 💵 **Income vs. Taxes:** US individuals earned $23 trillion in 2023, while top 500 companies made $41 trillion, yet corporations only paid 6.5% of taxes compared to individuals' 45.3%, raising questions about tax fairness.
- 🌡️ **Heatflation Impact:** Rising global temperatures will affect more than agriculture, impacting manufacturing and worker conditions, with a divide forming between those who can afford heat protection and those who cannot.
- 🇪🇺 **Europe's AI Law:** The EU's new AI law is now in effect, with compliance deadlines stretching to mid-2026, impacting global AI solution providers.
- 💻 **Decentralized Lending:** Morpho's successful funding round signals growth in decentralized lending, offering a new approach to risk management without traditional DAOs.
- 🤝 **Leadership Skills:** **Being the Glue -** Effective leaders need to navigate, communicate, understand resistance, adapt to dynamic changes, and listen to build strong, resilient teams.
---
*Welcome to S3T, the essential newsletter, podcast, and learning platform for change leaders.*
*S3T shares 21st century leadership skills set in the context of emerging tech and the evolving economy. This is an unusual combination of skills, not usually taught together, but critical for the global and local challenges we face today.*
*Every week in the S3T newsletter and podcast we review the top developments and insights you need to stay ahead of the curve, build your ethics & leadership skills, and drive intentional beneficial innovation.*
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed.*
## If we can just make it to September...
This week the [Bank of England cut its rates](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx72dpxy25do?ref=s3t.org) for the first time since 2020\. In the US the [Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/fed-expected-hold-rates-steady-open-door-september-cut-2024-07-31/?ref=s3t.org), but hinted at cuts in September.
Some, like [Goldman Sachs worry September may be too late](https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/252590/has-the-fed-waited-too-long-to-cut-rates.aspx?ref=s3t.org). Stocks fell on Thursday (and again Friday) amid [concerns over spiking jobless rates and a drop in manufacturing](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/stocks-retreat-weak-us-economic-news?ref=s3t.org). Average [mortgage rates seem to be easing](https://apnews.com/article/mortgage-rates-housing-interest-financing-home-loan-75c0c905b4f5d9b703be7aaa11fafad1?ref=s3t.org).
## Military Readiness & Spending
This week a bi-partisan commission released its assessment of the US National Defense Strategy. Back in 2022 when the current National Defense Strategy was released, Congress stipulated that a [special commission would review and provide feedback on the adequacy of the National Defense Strategy](https://www.rand.org/nsrd/projects/NDS-commission.html?ref=s3t.org). The resulting [report (PDF) ](https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/misc/MSA3057-4/RAND%5FMSA3057-4.pdf?ref=s3t.org)provides a grim assessment of US defense readiness: "*The United States could in short order be drawn into a war across multiple theaters with peer and near-peer adversaries, and it could lose*."
Gloomy assessments of US military capability aren't new (similar assessments from [2018](https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/corporate%5Fpubs/CPA100/CPA174-1/RAND%5FCPA174-1.pdf?ref=s3t.org), [2001](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/measuring-u-s-military-readiness/?ref=s3t.org) and [1980](https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/SpecialAnalysis80-03-compressed-1.pdf?x85095&ref=s3t.org)). These tend to be written by people whose job is to worry about national security, and by people who want to see defense spending increased.
None of this suggests defense spending is unimportant; effective and sustainable military readiness is critical.
**It will always be difficult to balance the need for robust defense with the realities of economic constraints. The current math of inflation and US debt make it harder than ever to do that:**
- [17% of the national budget goes to servicing the US debt](https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/national-debt/?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=As%20of%20July%202024%20it,over%20the%20past%20ten%20years.)
- [13% is spent on defense](https://www.cbpp.org/research/federal-budget/where-do-our-federal-tax-dollars-go?ref=s3t.org) \- people like to point to this figure - and how it’s so much bigger than other countries military spending.
Together these points highlight the need for national unity, public-private innovation partnerships especially in AI and emerging tech, as well as enhanced multinational cooperation. It also strongly suggests this is not the time for a new round of tax cuts on the largest tax contributors (corporations).
## Comparing Income vs Taxes for individuals and companies
### The latest data shows total earnings of individuals vs total earnings of companies continue to be lopsided. But not as lopsided as their shares of taxes.
- The total income of all US individual wage earners (from salaries, rental properties etc) [was $23 Trillion (for 2023)](https://www.statista.com/statistics/216756/us-personal-income/?ref=s3t.org).
- The total income for all US Corporations is not aggregated, but Fortune 500 companies made [$41Trillion in total revenue in the FY ending in March 2023](https://www.growandconvert.com/research/most-profitable-fortune-500-companies-in-2023/?ref=s3t.org). Together [US Corporations earn about 3 Trillion profit per quarter](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us%5Fcorporate%5Fprofits%5Fquarterly?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=US%20Corporate%20Profits%20is%20at,6.38%25%20from%20one%20year%20ago.) or \~12 Trillion per year just in profit alone.
To run through the numbers again:
- $23 Trillion = Total income for all US individuals
- $41 Trillion = Total income for top 500 US companies
So naturally total corporate taxes should be equal or maybe almost twice as much as total individual taxes - right? Well...see the chart below, which shows latest full accounting of US Gov tax revenue:
- US Corporations paid 6.5% of the taxes collected by the US Government.
- Individuals paid 45.3% of the tax burden, and paid additional taxes via social security taxes, property and consumption taxes.
[Link to original with full context, courtesy of the Tax Foundation](https://taxfoundation.org/data/all/federal/us-tax-revenue-by-tax-type-2024/?ref=s3t.org). This was not an unusual year - [here is the same chart for 2023](https://taxfoundation.org/data/all/federal/us-tax-revenue-by-tax-type-2023/?ref=s3t.org). And [2022](https://taxfoundation.org/data/all/federal/us-tax-revenue-by-tax-type-2022/?ref=s3t.org).
**The top 500 companies alone make almost twice as much as the total wages of individuals, yet consistently pay 1/7 of the tax burden.** (File this under "why it might not be time for another big corporate tax break".)
---
## 🥵Heatflation will impact more than crops
The [World Economic Forum defines “heatflation”](https://www.weforum.org/videos/what-is-heatflation/?ref=s3t.org) as a form of inflation that raises the prices of food as climate change impacts crops and livestock.
But rising temperatures around the world are also going to impact manufacturing plants and workers. [This is already an emerging and under reported issue](https://www.manufacturingdive.com/news/manufacturing-workers-safety-extreme-heat-climate-change-osha/642856/?ref=s3t.org).
Innovators in Japan are preparing for a [hotter future for workers with new kinds of heat reducing clothing](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2024/07/cooling-japan-how-innovative-materials-are-tackling-heatwaves/?ref=s3t.org).
At the [10th Annual Heat Solution Tokyo conference](https://www.jetro.go.jp/en/database/j-messe/tradefair/detail/133970?ref=s3t.org) \- an expo of air conditioning and cooling products, [Leo Lewis (FT) noted 2 disturbing themes](https://www.ft.com/content/23f5b929-2952-41ad-8633-69da603611ab?ref=s3t.org):
- Because actions to forestall climate change have not been adequate; extreme heat will be pervasive and **heatflation will impact *manufacturers* not just farms.**
- There will be a divide between communities and companies that can afford to protect their workers from the heat, and those who cannot (and likewise between companies that will pay for adequate cooling vs those who will not).
Related: Duke University's Heat Policy Innovation Hub recently hosted the [first HeatWise Policy Partnership Summit](https://nicholasinstitute.duke.edu/articles/duke-summit-forges-purposeful-partnerships-tackle-extreme-heat?ref=s3t.org), bringing together financial, insurance, government and community organizers to focus on evidence based heat interventions for rural communities, the concept of "blended finance" and the future of insurance. This is a **great example of the kind of cross-disciplinary innovation that our 21st century challenges require.**
---
### Europe’s AI Law Goes into effect
The European Union's landmark law on artificial intelligence [went into effect this week](https://techcrunch.com/2024/08/01/the-eus-ai-act-is-now-in-force/?ref=s3t.org) triggering a series of compliance deadlines between now and mid-2026\.
Helpful: [OpenAI shared this AI Act compliance primer](https://openai.com/global-affairs/a-primer-on-the-eu-ai-act/?ref=s3t.org) which offers recommendations on how to plan for full compliance. **The act applies to organizations outside the EU if:**
- You sell a solution in the EU market
- You are an AI solution provider and you have an office in the EU
- Outputs produced by your AI solution are used by organizations within the EU
This will likely force organizations to add language about whether their solutions are allowed for use within the EU or not.
### Bi-Partisan Crypto
The Harris campaign is [reaching out to the crypto industry](https://www.theblock.co/post/307760/kamala-harris-team-wants-to-take-a-position-on-crypto-source-says-as-outreach-to-the-industry-forges-on?ref=s3t.org), the Block reports. Those close to the situation say the campaign is gathering info in order to develop a more informed position on crypto. This could be a welcome shift from the anti-crypto tone pushed by key players (Senator Elizabeth Warren and SEC Chair Gary Gensler) in the Biden administration.
I think this is a net positive because crypto and Blockchain architectures represent the future of digital assets - and possibly the future of money. **Something this important and pervasive should not be a partisan issue.**
Politically Related: [This Foreign Affairs piece](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/imperial-presidency-unleashed-donald-trump?ref=s3t.org) worries about the prospect of an "imperial presidency" thanks to the recent Supreme Court decisions.
### The Future of risk management may be decentralized
Morpho a pioneer in decentralized lending successfully [completed a new round of funding](https://www.theblock.co/post/308866/ribbit-capital-50-million-raise-morpho-labs?ref=s3t.org) \- a signal that decentralized lending is moving to a new level of adoption.
Decentralized Lending started back in the 2020 timeframe with a reliance Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs), but this was a non-starter for trad-Fi players who had issues with the DAO structure. [Morpho offers a new more scalable more efficient approach](https://www.theblock.co/post/255639/morpho-blue-seeks-to-upend-decentralized-lending-by-removing-dao-bottlenecks?ref=s3t.org) you could call "permission-less risk management." The approach allows autonomous operations without risk adjustments by a DAO, which in turn lets lenders provide more capital to borrowers with lower overall risk.
---
## Being the glue
Today’s political tensions, economic uncertainties and technology driven acceleration require leaders to bring together different disciplines and groups who may also have different perspectives about how to solve problems – or what the problems even are. The tensions in these settings can be hard to manage. More than ever we need leaders who know how to "be the glue" ...the connectors between groups that might not otherwise ever work or think together.
Many leaders are wrestling with conflicts among their teams or partners and wish they they knew how to "be the glue" and gain traction and forward momentum. If you’re in this category, I’m gonna show you how. It has a lot more to do with what you’re thinking and how you’re thinking vs any specific behavior.
### How you think guides what you say and do
Here’s exactly how you need to be thinking when you are trying to bring people together: Keep these 5 things top of mind and soon people will be saying "You're the glue! You're the glue that helps us stick together and make good things happen in spite of the odds:
1. **The difference between navigation and compromise.** Compromise is trying to pick some random spot that is the least loathsome to the two extremes. Navigation is having an objective and recognizing that you may have to make a number of right hand turns *and* left-hand turns as you’re moving towards the objective.
Now, some people will ask well what if there’s a disagreement about what is the objective? You need to move up one level: Why do you have this objective? Why do I have this different objective? What need or want are we expressing or alluding to when we state our objective? There is always something behind the stated objective of a person or group.
2. **Low-key continuous communication.** The calm flow of information is critical. Recognize that each of us lacks certain crucial information. As we communicate freely, and work together to solve the problem, our individual knowledge gaps will become more evident (to us), and at the same time, our collective comprehension of the problem becomes more complete. Everyone gets more clear about what we need to do and how we need to do it.
3. **Read resistance and hesitation for what it is.** Understanding why people are tense or resistant will help you deal with it more effectively. 99% of the time it’s because of a fear of failure, or fear of something going wrong.
4. **Everything is dynamic not static - evolving and we are headed into new uncharted territory.** Keeping an eye on how things are evolving and where things are headed is another key differentiator. Drive a common understanding that everything is changing. When everyone realizes in common that the entire landscape is changing around us and we all need to work together to find the best path forward *that becomes a new kind of common ground.* It gives you and your organization a level of effectiveness and resilience you won’t have if you're seeing everything as a pitched battle or zero sum game in a static situation. The way you talk about these things is important. You want to constantly show and share awareness of how things are shifting.
5. **Listening is the most transformative culture building skill you can leverage.** Listening is a very powerful way for you to signal that we all don’t know everything yet. We're open. We believe everyone deserves a voice. It’s another great way to signal that we all have knowledge gaps and that we need to help fill in each other‘s knowledge gaps. This will give you an edge and advantage when you are faced with situations involving uncertainty, where the road forward is not clear.
If you want to stand out as a capable resilient leader, these are some great skills and thought patterns to learn and use. Put them to use this week.
Keep learning: **See the** [**S3T Playbook: Harmonize Different Kinds of Expertise to Achieve Success**](https://www.s3t.org/harmonize-expertise/)**.**
---
### 🎯Your Chance to Learn Change Leadership Skills from the basics to special cases
[The S3T Change Leadership Learning Series](https://www.s3t.org/change-leadership-learning-series/) is a set of 20+ learning segments arranged in a 101, 201, 301 progression, starting with the basics and going through advanced methods and playbooks for special cases.
**Click the subscribe button (lower right of this page) and sign up for "S3T Change Leadership Continuous Skill Upgrades."** This will give you full access to the S3T Change Leadership Learning Series, plus the entire set of additional S3T Playbooks and Perspectives on the S3T learning platform (all the resources behind the paywall at S3T.org). All for a fraction of your monthly coffee budget.
- Learn at your own pace. If you take one segment a week you can finish in less than 6 months.
- When you finish:
- you'll understand how to plan and drive positive change, mobilize and align teams on clear forward paths, resolve conflicts, and address resistance to change.
- you'll continue to learn and increase your value via S3T Perspectives, Panoramas and new insights regarding the latest key developments.
- You'll also have a deeper understanding of how to leverage emerging tech and the rapidly evolving economy to drive positive outcomes for the customers and communities you serve.
---
*Thank you for reading and sharing S3T. If you are enjoying S3T please give it a like or repost on LinkedIn or other platforms where you learn and share! This helps us with our mission of encouraging change leaders and innovators in their vital work.*
###
###
### ⚖️ Work life balance in a changing economy + Eth ETF, Unicorns, Golden robots, Yield curve
URL: https://www.s3t.org/july-26-2024/
Last updated: 2024-07-29T13:48:42.000Z
## In this edition of S3T:
- 📉 Economic updates: GDP vs Job market cooling, manufacturing contracting, and a decline in new home sales. Plus: inverted yield curves.
- 💹 Ethereum ETFs debut with significant inflows, offering traditional investors a new way to diversify.
- 🔄 Tech industry's shift to the right: Noah Smith's analysis on the reasons behind this trend.
- 🦄 Venture capital concerns: Over 1240 unicorns but a sharp drop in billion-dollar exits.
- 🤖 AI and ancient allure: Tesla's robot pivot and reflections on the temptation of creating intelligent robots.
- ⚖️ Work-life balance: A deep dive into personal experiences and adjustments for better health and productivity. The importance of sharing knowledge and resources to support each other's journeys.
**🎧** [**Listen to this episode on the S3T Podcast**](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org) **\-** *Be sure to follow the S3T podcast so you never miss a show!*
---
*Welcome to S3T, the essential newsletter, podcast, and learning platform for change leaders. Each week we update you on top developments and need to know insights to keep you ahead of the curve, build your ethics & leadership skills, and drive intentional beneficial innovation.*
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed.*
## GDP growth amid slumps in Tech stocks, Jobs, Manufacturing and Home Sales
[US GDP grew faster than expected](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gdp-us-economy-grows-at-faster-than-expected-pace-in-second-quarter-as-inflation-eases-123158542.html?guccounter=1&guce%5Freferrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9uZXdzLmdvb2dsZS5jb20v&guce%5Freferrer%5Fsig=AQAAAHU8y5V4-Qj73f39eJO4JcfjnVHlOYqJbZkJ5ksyeaw0FchtrEBXlhCaM-VbtsGjxYBcoN6pLhJyU-h-rbgjOxqWFsA8YyVIwFMuo5NT84-YW4RA2LkCaUR8LL3d2aT8l8mNr-WxNC0hK837q-iLNFy%5F6W0dDG4m26CEFRpkv-K4&ref=s3t.org) in the last quarter. Per the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) this [reflects increases in consumer spending](https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/gross-domestic-product-second-quarter-2024-advance-estimate?ref=s3t.org) \- in other words - not necessarily an increase in the health of the economy. Here's what else to include in the picture:
- [Tech stocks dropped sharply](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ck5gp185n6ro?ref=s3t.org) as reality settles in for the revenue-sparse AI sector.
- Manufacturing per the [PMI flash index dropped below 50](https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/b8e8431883e142bfbd555271cec331e9?ref=s3t.org) (which means it's contracting).
- [New home sales are down](https://www.investopedia.com/us-economy-news-today-july-24-8682697?ref=s3t.org), and [Meredith Whitney expects a long period of decline in housing prices](https://www.cnbc.com/video/2024/04/02/advisory-firm-ceo-discusses-outlook-for-us-housing-prices.html?ref=s3t.org). This is not something the US market has experienced, and defies conventional wisdom but Whitney has been right before: [she predicted the financial crisis of 2007-08](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meredith%5FWhitney?ref=s3t.org).
- All this plus, [the Job Market is cooling](https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/the-hottest-job-market-in-a-generation-is-over-92f61452?mod=economy%5Flead%5Fpos2&ref=s3t.org). (Extra tidbit from the RTO sideshow: [this survey](https://www.bamboohr.com/resources/guides/return-to-office?ref=s3t.org#executives-and-hr-admit-rto-is-meant-to-make-people-quit) suggests a heavy percentage of the return-to-office mandates were done to spur resignations.)
Of course, this being an election year, the economic situation gets turned into a debate about which administration caused the damage. The short answer is, neither side has the right to blame the other. For decades Republican and Democrat administrations have both contributed to the problem of *perennial* inflation, while permitting the Federal Reserve to engage in a fantasy battle with a narrowly defined version of inflation (aka headline inflation) that doesn't really reflect the affordability challenges that individuals and families in the US economy actually have to live through.
### The yield curve is inverted - but it's been that way since 2022
The yield curve is a visual way to show the borrowing cost and risk of debt securities of different maturities (for example 2 years vs 10 years). Normally the curve would show higher returns for the 10 year. An inverted yield curve does the opposite - and has been a semi-reliable indicator of oncoming recessions since at least the 1980s ([Detailed explainer here](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/invertedyieldcurve.asp?ref=s3t.org)).
Investors and analysts are puzzled about why [the yield curve has now been inverted since 2022 yet we've had no recession so far](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/24/why-an-indicator-that-has-foretold-almost-every-recession-doesnt-seem-to-be-working-anymore.html?ref=s3t.org). The TLDR is 1\. the economy is definitely evolving, and we're moving into new territory. 2\. Many worry that the Fed is waiting too long to cut interest rates.
## Traditional investors now have exposure to Ethereum, crypto's global app platform
Ethereum ETFs began active trading this week [with inflows of $106M on the first day](https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-spot-ether-etfs-see-net-inflows-106-million-first-day-2024-07-24/?ref=s3t.org). That's 1/6 of the [day 1 inflows for the Bitcoin ETF](https://farside.co.uk/?p=1321&ref=s3t.org) launched earlier this year, but that's 300x the day 1 inflows of a BlackRock non-crypto ETF launched last week. [Eric Balchunas noted for comparison](https://x.com/EricBalchunas/status/1815748703510274053?ref=s3t.org): BlackRock launched a non-crypto manufacturing ETF last week. Its Day 1 inflows: $300K.
ETFs - Exchange Traded Funds - offer investors a more user friendly approach for diversification and risk management with lower costs, tax advantages. See [Fidelity's helpful ETF explainer](https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/investment-products/etf/benefits-of-etfs?ref=s3t.org).
NLW has listed the ways that Ethereum is now being explained to the traditional investors starting to wade into this new asset class. [NLWs entire podcast episode is worth a listen](https://www.s3t.org/july-19-2024/) but here are a few of the better explanations that caught my attention:
- Ethereum as the "Crypto App Store" ...a "Global Platform for applications that run without a centralized intermediary" (*looking at you* Apple Sherlocking-is-our-middle-name App Store).
- Bitcoin's value comes from *scarcity*, Ethereum's from *utility*
### Will additional Crypto ETFs follow?
Now that Bitcoin and Ethereum are both available to traditional investors in ETF form, many are watching to see if additional crypto assets - like say Solana - might also become available in ETFs. Bitcoin and Ethereum together comprise a large portion of the total market cap, so some might argue these two alone offer investors adequate exposure to the crypto space. Personally, I don't think that view greps the full span of experimentation underway in crypto.
## 📚Financial Literacy
If you or someone you know wants to learn how to get established financially, Lyn Alden has organized [an excellent reading list of resources](https://www.lynalden.com/about-lyn-alden/?ref=s3t.org) that will help beginners as well as those who are further along their journey to financial health and wealth.
## Is the Tech Industry Shifting to the Right?
AzeemAmarhas noticed a [shift to the right in at least some notable quarters of big tech](https://www.exponentialview.co/p/ev-483?ref=s3t.org), and Noah Smith delves into 7 underlying reasons why in a great piece titled [*Understanding the New Tech Right*](https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/understanding-the-new-tech-right?ref=s3t.org) \- except:
> "In the new, more challenging business environment, taxes and regulation loom larger, just as they did in the 1970s for many other U.S. industries. "
Noah sees a parallel with the rightward shift of business that occurred back in the late 1970s, but also caveats that this right shift may be still a fairly small segment of the overall tech sector. But even if this ends up being a significant trend, what does it mean for our organizations and teams?
### **The surprising possible benefits**
I suspect that the tech industry always was a little more politically diverse than we might have presumed, but if it is becoming overtly more so, there may be some positives to this:
1. The tech industry's has always been about engineering and problem solving. This skillset happens to be very relevant to the complex problems that are alluded to - superficially - in today's political debates. Unlike non-engineering professions, tech developers and engineers operate in a world of empirical accountability. Your code either compiles or it doesn't. Your firewall either stops the penetration test or it doesn't. You iterate through a series of failures via a test and learn approach, until your product works. Until it works in basic use cases, as well as edge cases. This kind of empirical methodical approach is missing from the ideologically driven tug of war's in our politics today.
2. Throughout my career I've noticed a tendency for many in the tech industry to accept progressive thinking as a given, stay heads down focused on the interesting tech we were building or using, shielded from the woes of the real world by our tech salaries, stock options, and the cosmopolitan cultures we worked in. In this stasis, meaningful cross-conversations between different sides of the political spectrum didn't happen often enough. If this is changing, that's not a bad thing.
3. Also the tech industry has a long history of idealogical conflicts centered on technologies: programming languages, operating systems, tech companies. Think Apple vs Windows, Java vs .NET, Linux vs Unix, SQL vs Oracle vs Postgres etc ...the list of religious wars is long. But a growing set of tech professionals - especially experienced developers and architects - have learned more pragmatic patterns of thinking and decision making: - *"my favorite is X, but I think we could get a good outcome even if we used Y"* or similarly: *"my preference is usually A but I can see in this case A doesn't quite fit some of the unique issues here, so we all agree we're going to go with B."* That kind of intelligence - being aware of your default, being aware that your default might not answer every scenario, being able to coordinate a smart approach with a group of people who bring different views and expertise - is forced by the complex time-bound nature of tech projects - especially in highly regulated or security-exposed projects where accountability is sharpened by the team's clear recognition that failure will be visible and will bring severe consequences.
To summarize: If the tech industry is about to become a little less homogenous this may not be a bad thing. Especially if it means that the large issues of our day begin to be processed by people with an engineering mindset who are used to solving complex problems via empirical test-and-learn approaches.
Further learning:
[S3T Playbook: 6 Proven Ways to Resolve ConflictsLeading change at an organizational or macro level will require you to learn how to resolve conflicts. Here is a framework of 6 options that you can use to resolve most conflicts.S3TRalph Perrine](https://www.s3t.org/6-ways-to-resolve-conflicts/)
---
## Too many unicorns, not enough exits
CB Insights [says there are now over 1240 Unicorns](https://www.cbinsights.com/research-unicorn-companies?ref=s3t.org) \- companies valued at over $1B. [Crunchbase data shows a sharp drop in $Billion exits](https://news.crunchbase.com/company-ipo-exits-list/?ref=s3t.org)
In [Venture Capital has an exit problem](https://www.ft.com/content/b5855977-9624-4764-8746-9eb63f6ec845?ref=s3t.org), FTs Richard Waters writes about the aging collection of unsold private tech companies with (most likely) unrealistic valuations.
So many of these have an AI or GenAI label affixed to their names or products. Which has [Dan Gray also sounding the alarm](https://www.equidam.com/the-5b-club-irrationality-in-generative-ai-valuation/?ref=s3t.org): he spotlights how investors put a lot of money into AI companies without a framework for assigning objective valuations to these companies.
### AI taps into an ancient temptation
As Tesla [pivots to robots](https://www.axios.com/2024/07/24/tesla-musk-ev-robotics?ref=s3t.org) amid [slowing EV adoption](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/03/electric-car-transition-hybrid-consumer-options?ref=s3t.org) and disappointing earnings reports, [Harry Lewis reflects on six decades of relations with computer based intelligence](https://www.harvardmagazine.com/2024/07/harry-lewis-computers-humanity?ref=s3t.org) and why we should resist the temptation to create **"counterfeit humanity."** This may not be easy. The allure of intelligent robots that do our bidding runs deep: 2800 years ago, [Homer wrote about golden robots created by Hephaestus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hephaestus?ref=s3t.org).
## How Realistic is Work Life Balance?
*A deeper dive into a conversation that started on LinkedIn this week.*
It's Mid-Year and a good time to talk about worklife balance and burnout. The topic of burnout and work-life balance is complicated for many, especially for those striving to establish their careers. It certainly was for me in my younger years when I was starting my career.
**Many people underestimate the effort required to move from one economic level to another.** Coming from a rural, low-income background, I had no concept of anything beyond manual labor. When I moved to DC, I was fortunate to land an office job, an amazing step for me. To earn more, I took a side job delivering newspapers to all the DC metro stations every night. Each Sun-Fri night I spent 11 PM to 6:30 AM driving around DC, putting papers in the newspaper machines. I'd drive back across the Potomac, changing clothes in restaurant in Springfield, VA, then catch a ride back into DC to start my office job by 8 AM. I worked until 5 PM, went home to rest for a few hours, and then started the cycle again. This lasted for three months. It gave me extra income (I was saving for my wedding) and gave me a fearless confidence in my capacity for work.
A few months later I stumbled into a job that placed me at the center of emerging tech, and gave me a sustained opportunity to grow tech skills at an accelerated pace. Over the next 7 years, I worked 100+ hours a week, with frequent all-nighters and occasional 36hr or longer stretches.
The punchline: My economic situation improved, but one afternoon, I drove myself to the ER, thinking I was having a heart attack. It wasn't, but the doctors advised immediate lifestyle changes.
Here are the adjustments I made:
- Reconnecting with Art: I made time to draw and paint, rekindling a passion I had set aside due to its perceived low earning potential.
- Financial Literacy: I started learning about capital and investing rather than continuing to focus on raw earning power. Remember, my background sent me into adulthood with zero financial literacy. I started learning what everyone should learn at a young age: Even small amounts saved and invested make a significant difference over time.
- Health: I began running and working out regularly. I learned that if you are short on time, then you really must have the energy and mental alertness that only exercise can give you. "I have so much to do I can't exercise." is misleading. The accurate statement is: "I have so much to do, that if I don't exercise, I'll lack the energy and mental alertness that I need to get it all done."
- Being more selective: I started being more selective about what projects, ventures, and employers I engaged with. I learned how to recognize (and opt out of) situations that would force me to spend valuable time waiting for unteachable people to play through their mistakes.
### Key Takeaways
- **Economic Inequity:** Our highly inequitable economic environment means that those in lower economic strata often have to be either extremely lucky or work extremely hard, as I did, to achieve any degree of financial stability. My experience happened back in the 1990s, but today I continuously hear from younger people and recent grads facing the same challenge. It seems to be getting harder and harder for younger people and younger families to get financially established.
- **Emerging Technology:** Entering the emerging technology sector was a game-changer for me. It's one part of the economy that consistently offers expanding opportunities. Investors and corporate financial stewards are generally more willing to invest in emerging technology due to its potential for increased capability and empowerment, unlike many other professions, whose work is often seen as costs to be downsized.
- **Life has chapters.** You most likely have the capacity to work insane amounts of hours for some period of time. And maybe you will need to in a specific chapter of your life. If there's a clear opportunity with reasonable assurance of advancing to the next level, it can be worth considering. However, it's crucial to balance this with your overall life and health and a consideration of what chapter of life you are in: I was young and healthy, with no kids or pets. My spouse was also a go getter. Not every chapter of life offers that kind of setting. And...there were other chapters of my life where I did have kids and was spending significantly more time taking them camping, taking them to the doctor, etc.
- **Help and Share.** Knowing all this should make us want to help each other and share knowledge as much as we can. I had many people who shared knowledge and resources, made introductions, or took time to talk me through things that I didn’t understand. Without them, I would probably be in a very different place today. They didn’t know it, but **they were giving me crucial stepping stones that helped me learn and move forward in my life.** If you take a few minutes to stop and help someone or point them in the right direction, you never know how crucial that is for their journey.
So worklife balance: it’s super important but it’s not as cut and dried as we might think. But, you can take the points that I‘be just shared here and use them to help you make good decisions about what’s right for you this current chapter of your life, and in turn you’ll be able to help others in their journey.
---
*Thank you for reading and sharing S3T. If you are enjoying S3T please give it a like or repost on LinkedIn or other platforms where you learn and share! This helps us with our mission of encouraging change leaders and innovators in their vital work.*
### 🛠️S3T July 19 - Beneath the headlines: the shift from theory driven to code driven economy
URL: https://www.s3t.org/july-19-2024/
Last updated: 2024-07-19T10:39:49.000Z
---
*Welcome to S3T, the essential newsletter, podcast, and learning platform for change leaders. Every week we review the top developments and insights you need to stay ahead of the curve, build your ethics & leadership skills, and drive intentional beneficial innovation.*
**🎧** [**Listen to this episode on the S3T Podcast**](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org) **\-** *Be sure to follow the S3T podcast so you never miss a show!*
## In this edition of S3T:
- 💡 How to talk with your family and teams during times of political division
- 🛠️ Unseen beneath the political headlines there is serious work being done - to prepare this nation for its future.
- 🌐 Why diverse perspectives help solve the complex "wicked problems" of our shifting global landscape and emerging technological challenges.
- 📈 Impact of inflation on different economic groups, and why inflation measures need updating.
- 💰 Evolution of financial systems towards code-driven and crypto-based models: Growing acceptance of Bitcoin and tokenization in traditional finance
- 📱 "Sherlocking" risk for app developers in evolving ecosystems. Considerations for GenAI app development amid advancing AI assistants
- 🌱 Emerging technologies in carbon removal and new adoption for cryptocurrency payments...plus a roundup of most significant developments this week.
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed.*
### This week, millions of Americans went back to work, wondering how to talk with their coworkers and teams about the events of the past weekend. And how to make sense of it all.
I am blessed to come from a diverse family. Together we cover a spectrum of origins, races, beliefs, identities, and of course politics. Some of us live in big cities, some in small towns. We are scattered across different parts of the work force and the economy.
But we cook together, hike together, travel together, and we're there for each other through life's ups and downs. We are probably a political statistician's worst nightmare. We don't fit neatly into categories.
### Being in a very diverse family gives me a few thoughts to anchor on:
- Everyone regardless of their politics should be able to attend a political rally without fear of violence. Election interference in any form is unacceptable.
- We are more *integrated* than the headlines acknowledge. Regardless of your political views, you have family members with different views. Parents, children, cousins, in-laws. You likely have friends and neighbors with views that differ from yours. You also have co-workers with different views. You care about all of these people, and you do not want harm to come to any of them. Let's lean into that fact.
- Yes, a few individuals are unstable, disconnected, probably hurting and not healthy, with potential to act out in extreme and violent ways - [or at least talk like it](https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/07/18/after-civil-war-and-anti-immigrant-tweets-ryan-selkis-told-to-cool-it-by-his-crypto-startups-leadership/?ref=s3t.org). We don't have to allow the actions of the unstable to dictate what the rest of us do.
- What happened in the last few days now sits alongside - and doesn't change - what happened in the last few years. Americans of every persuasion will have to consider what this means for their vote.
### Unseen beneath the political headlines, the memes, and chaos there is serious work being done - to prepare this nation for its future.
The people engaged in this work will not be the ones you see on TV. They will not be roasting opponents in political attack ads, or starting meme storms on social media. They work across the political aisle on things that aren’t sensational enough to attract the attention of a broken news apparatus that now exists solely to serve up commercials.
If you want to find these people - and maybe even join them - you simply need to start viewing the world through the same lens they do - *and here is what that lens shows them*:
- We in the US cannot continue to ride the uniquely advantageous position conferred on us in the aftermath of World War II. Or the dividends of the end of the Cold War. And we can't continue to play through the mistaken economic models that conventional wisdom thinks is "the only way."
- The geopolitical landscape is changing, new technology capabilities are emerging faster than ever, and the financial architecture of the world is being completely reinvented.
- The issues we face in the 21st century are complex, risk-laden, and accelerating. Many meet the full criteria of "[wicked problems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wicked%5Fproblem?ref=s3t.org)": issues that don't have predefined recipes for success, won't get solved by ideology, and will require multiple iterative attempts to resolve.
- The first attempt at solving a complex problem rarely goes well - regardless of the ideology or views or the people attempting to solve it. The first attempt often changes our understanding of what the problem actually is.
- Political operatives will seize upon setbacks and distract us with "told-you-so's" ...what we need in those moments is not division and distraction. We need focus and **the capacity to adjust based on what we learned and try again**. And we need each other's perspectives. All focused on solving the problems at hand...not just making sure the other side looks bad.
- This challenging era we face - and the work we need to do together - is the strongest case for unity. We need to increase communication and knowledge sharing.
The individuals working in this manner recognize that navigating and solving complex issues *successfully* requires diverse perspectives and the blending of different kinds of expertise. This requires high degrees of trust and free and open communication.
It is easy to read this and think it's unrealistic. **But it's far more unrealistic to think that pessimism is somehow the safer ground.**
Across the panorama of history, mindsets that said "I doubt we can" never accomplished as much as mindsets that said "I believe we will". If you just can't bring yourself to say "I believe we will" then see if you can at least say "who knows? maybe we can, let's try."
The people who think like this are everywhere. Start watching and you’ll see them. You might even find one in the mirror.
---
## The economy's performance since 2000
Every year the Bureau of Labor Statistics updates its view of cumulative price changes over time. The chart illustrates the argument that S3T editions have made repeatedly - that there is a form of perennial inflation that spans no single presidential administration can take the blame for. Here's the latest:
Notice which prices increased the most. Thanks to [Anthony Pompliamo](https://x.com/apompliano/status/1812464959026282625?s=46&t=GoPAAwUSN6sNrDA2LhP96Q&ref=s3t.org) for sharing this.
Poorer Americans have been disproportionately impacted by inflation, because the lowest priced goods appear to have had the steepest increases, per new findings in [this NBER paper by Alberto Cavallo and Oliksiy Kryvtsov](https://www.nber.org/system/files/working%5Fpapers/w32626/w32626.pdf?ref=s3t.org) (PDF).
### Across the board, a sense that "this can't continue" is setting in, and a new financial architecture is inevitable
*Recent developments continue to sketch out how the next financial architecture of the world will look.*
This week BlackRock CEO [Larry Fink said he has converted from crypto skeptic to "major believer](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/15/blackrocks-larry-fink-says-hes-a-major-believer-in-bitcoin.html?ref=s3t.org)" - saying [there is a place for Bitcoin in portfolios](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-cements-legitimate-status-as-wall-street-struggles-toward-a-new-consensus-morning-brief-100008050.html?ref=s3t.org) of those worried about government deficits.
Larry Fink has also described [tokenization as "the next generation" for markets](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-plans-launch-tokenization-064000159.html?ref=s3t.org). Goldman Sachs plans [3 tokenization projects in remainder of 2024](https://fortune.com/crypto/2024/07/10/goldman-sachs-launch-tokenization-bitcoin-etfs-crypto-mcdermott/?ref=s3t.org). Tokenization in general means creating a digital representation of something you can own, or own a part of - like shares in a company. Tokenization in the context of crypto or blockchain systems refers to the process of creating digital representation of an asset (real estate, businesses etc) and using that to track ownership and transactions on a blockchain. [Chainalysis has one of the best definitions](https://www.chainalysis.com/blog/asset-tokenization-explained/?ref=s3t.org):
> Asset tokenization refers to the process of recording the rights to a given asset into a digital token that can be held, sold, and traded on a blockchain. The resulting tokens represent a stake of ownership in the underlying asset.
Financial Times economist Tej Parikh who worries economists [are overly reliant on rules](https://www.ft.com/content/6c53a7f1-8f24-43e0-91f0-c054bfe1a4ec?ref=s3t.org), argued in a recent FT piece that [the Fed needs to change how it targets inflation](https://www.ft.com/content/c9cba47f-5902-4c2e-93de-b1bd113a91db?ref=s3t.org). Its current measures are skewed by use of a proxy for how much homeowners would pay for the shelter of their home, known as “owner equivalent rents." Elsewhere there are recurring questions and debates about the relationship of inflation and employment. Deeper Dive: [Is it time to rethink the Phillips Curve?](https://www.bostonfed.org/news-and-events/events/economic-research-conference-series/understanding-inflation-and-the-implications-for-monetary-policy-a-phillips-curve-retrospective.aspx?ref=s3t.org) (Scroll to bottom for content links) and [The Phillips curve in Covid Times](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304393224000333?ref=s3t.org).
### Where this is headed
For a glimpse of the longer term evolution, NLW of the Breakdown shared two excellent reads this past week on the role of crypto in the future of government
- [Liberty doesn’t ask for permission](https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/liberty-doesnt-ask-for-permission?ref=s3t.org) \- Shinobi's sweeping and slightly anarchic take on the implications of money that is not issued or controlled by government.
- [Bitcoin as a Notarization Layer](https://bitcoinmagazine.com/politics/bitcoin-as-a-notarization-layer-for-political-agreements?ref=s3t.org) \- Michelle Uberti's more down to earth take on leveraging Bitcoins immutability and transparency in international agreements.
I don't recommend buying into everything these pieces assert, but these individuals are watching the horizon, and how they describe what they see is worth factoring into the views of mainstream folk like Larry Fink, Tej Parish as well as the economists of the NBER.
Together these developments hint that **we are moving from a global economy driven by theory and vague governmental measures to one driven by code,** where assets like bitcoin - programmed to resist inflation - provide a new layer from which empowered owners can opt in or opt out of old world assets depending on their performance. It will be an exciting era of financial innovation yes. But one with gritty issues and problems work through.
Gain all the expertise you can. We're going to need it.
---
## If you are build or invest in GenAI apps: the new Sherlocking risk
[Sherlocking](https://www.npr.org/2024/06/17/g-s1-4912/apple-app-store-obsolete-sherlocked-tapeacall-watson-copy?ref=s3t.org) refers to the tendency of platform or ecosystem owners to offer capabilities that may compete with, and even obsolete third party apps. One of the biggest recent examples comes out of Apple's "App Store" where 3rd party developers have sometimes had their marketshare ruined when Apple added new capabilities to IOS, the core operating system of iPhones.
Astropad published [this 2021 case study in Sherlocking](https://astropad.com/apple-antitrust/?ref=s3t.org) from their own first hand experience - well documented, good need-to-know detail.
### Possible Sherlocking risks in GenAI and who can be impacted
Savvy development teams in the GenAI space are keeping an eye on the accelerating capabilities of public GenAI assistants like ChatGPT, Google Gemini, Microsoft CoPilot, Anthropic's Claude and other peers.
If you are thinking of developing a GenAI app, it's best to see how these public GenAI assistants handle your use case, so you can think clearly about whether you want to actually develop a GenAI assistant that competes with them or whether you want to develop a set of prompts (or other capabilities) that leverages these public GenAI assistants.
If you are already prototyping a GenAI app, you should consider the following steps before investing too much more time/$:
- compare its performance against the performance of leading GenAI assistants ChatGPT's latest, Claude, Gemini, *when you use a well-formed prompt* (it may take some experimentation to find out what that is).
- then consider how your app will perform against them 6 or 12 months from now when they will be much more advanced.
Public GenAI assistants + Well-formed prompts will outperform many new app ideas right now. If your new ideas fall into this category, don't create a new app for your customers, just show them how to write better prompts.
Public GenAI assistants *6 months from now* \+ Well-formed prompts will likely outperform *any* new app ideas UNLESS the following are true:
- You have data that is not available to Public GenAI assistants.
- You and your customers need to operate inside a security perimeter that Public GenAI assistants cannot access.
A good way to summarize this: **Build beyond the platform, not just on the platform.** Some general best practices for managing this risk:
- Be aware of the ecosystem or platform roadmap and potential future features
- Focus on unique value propositions that are not easily replicated
- Continuously innovate to stay ahead of potential platform integrations
- Diversify your offerings to reduce dependency on a single feature or platform
By following these principles, developers and investors can partner to create more resilient apps and businesses that are less likely to be made obsolete by platform evolution.
---
### Notable developments this week:
- [44.01 has found a unique and fast way to remove carbon](https://www.4401.earth/?ref=s3t.org)
- [AI hype hasn't factored in costs](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ai-effectively-useless-created-fake-194008129.html?ref=s3t.org), raising the specter of another dot.com bubble.
- Stripe, the payment processor used by S3T and millions of other organizations, [is enabling pay with crypto options in Europe](https://www.theblock.co/post/305673/stripe-bitcoin-ether-solana-crypto-purchases-eu?ref=s3t.org).
- The new [Coalition for Secure AI](https://www.theverge.com/2024/7/18/24201223/security-privacy-google-microsoft-openai-ai-cosai?ref=s3t.org) should bring much needed attention to the topic of **secure-by-design AI.**
- [Cellebrite](https://cellebrite.com/en/home/?ref=s3t.org) the mobile forensics firm that specializes in hacking into phones [can't unlock latest iPhones but still gets into Android phones](https://www.404media.co/leaked-docs-show-what-phones-cellebrite-can-and-cant-unlock/?ref=s3t.org). The FBI used the latest Cellebrite software to [crack the Samsung phone owned by the Trump shooter](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-18/fbi-used-new-cellebrite-software-to-access-trump-shooter-s-phone?ref=s3t.org).
- Crowdstrike's embarrassing [Blue Screen of Death hits businesses worldwide](https://www.theverge.com/2024/7/19/24201717/windows-bsod-crowdstrike-outage-issue?ref=s3t.org).
---
*Thank you for reading and sharing S3T. If you are enjoying S3T please give it a like or repost on LinkedIn or other platforms where you learn and share! This helps us with our mission of encouraging change leaders and innovators in their vital work.*
##
### 🪄Learn to direct your mind's relentless processing power to focus on what truly matters
URL: https://www.s3t.org/july-12-2024-learn-to-direct-your-minds-relentless-processing-power-to-focus-on-what-truly-matters/
Last updated: 2024-07-13T16:13:35.000Z
*Welcome to S3T, the essential newsletter, podcast, and learning platform for change leaders. Every week we review the top developments and insights you need to stay ahead of the curve, build your ethics & leadership skills, and drive intentional beneficial innovation.*
**🎧** [**Listen to this episode on the S3T Podcast**](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org) **\-** *Be sure to follow the S3T podcast so you never miss a show!*
## In this edition of S3T:
- 🧠 **Harness the Power of Your Mind**: Discover how to direct your mind's relentless processing power to focus on what truly matters.
- 💡 **Transform Stress into Solutions**: Learn techniques to direct your thoughts away from worries and towards high-value ideas and solutions.
- 🔍 **Intentional Thinking Steps**: Follow actionable steps to cultivate a habit of mindful mental processing, enhancing productivity and well-being.
- 📊 **Maximize Mental Efficiency**: Implement strategies to make the most of your mental energy and avoid unproductive thought patterns.
- 🚀 **Elevate Your Change Leadership**: Equip yourself with tools to thrive in stressful situations and lead effectively amidst challenges.
- 📉 **Economic Outlook**: Understand the current economic uncertainty and how it impacts consumer spending and political dynamics.
- 🤖 **AI Disruption**: Explore how GenAI could shift $9T worth of retail and why some experts view certain AI companies as the "Titanic."
- 💰 **Crypto in Politics**: Learn about the integration of crypto into the GOP platform and its implications for financial innovation.
- 🌿 **Career in Nature & AI**: Check out the exciting opportunity to join iNaturalist as Head of Engineering and contribute to biodiversity and conservation.
---
*As change leaders we often operate in stressful situations and zones of conflict - where there may be resistance to change, fear of unknowns or other challenges. I've seen this take a toll on change leaders including myself.*
*As I've lived and learned, there is one lesson, that has been of the most helpful lessons that has made a positive difference for me, my resilience and my ability to focus. It's this one simple point: your mind is a relentless processor, and that you need to decide what you allow it to process.*
## Your mind is a powerful processor. What do you *want* it to be processing?
Worries. Fears. What if scenarios. Ideas. Solutions. Next steps. Our minds are maybe a bit like hound dogs that pick up a scent and automatically start following a trail regardless of where it goes. Your mind is constantly hunting for solutions and safety. Our minds quickly get immersed in topics and start impacting us - often before we are aware of what is happening. Let's look at some examples.
Finding solutions:
- How to solve an important problem and do something next level OR
- How to solve a problem that's not worth solving, or that doesn't even exist.
Figure out why:
- Why someone said what they said. Why \_\_\_\_\_ always happens to you OR
- Why a chemical compound or other substance causes a specific result; Why one phenomenon coincides with or follows another, and what that might mean for (an important opportunity to solve an important problem).
Your mind can also process reasons:
- Reasons to do something OR
- Reasons *not* to do something. Reasons to procrastinate.
Point: Our minds aren't very discerning about what they pick up and start chewing on. Whether its high value solutioning that will help millions, or low value rumination and grudge dwelling, your mind is capable of getting fixated on any one of these, and burning up huge amounts of time on them. In other words, **our minds are prone to treat high value or low value topics with equal time-consuming attention,** as if they were of equal importance.
**Unless, you learn how to intervene.**
Some of the things your mind could focus on lead to great experiences, learning, and achievements that will feel nothing short of exhilarating. Others are sheer wastes of time and mental energy, roads to nowhere that will only make you sad.
So how do you learn how intervene? Is it possible to direct our minds to focus on certain things, while letting other things drop?
### How to build a habit of intentional processing
*These simple steps will help you build a powerful habit of harnessing and directing your thinking capabilities, and reducing mental overload.*
**Step 1: Start noticing what your mind is processing.** Develop a habit of just noticing...this can be as simple as saying or thinking to yourself a simple statement like "Wow I'm really focused on the meeting we had earlier today. It was kind of bumpy." Acknowledging your feelings and being aware of what you're doing - and feeling - is a really helpful step.
**Step 2: Pause trains of thought and decide whether they're worth thinking about right now.** Make it a point to decide: *What should I be processing right now.* One way to get a head start on this at the beginning your day: take some time as soon as you wake up and decide: *What do I want to be processing today?*
**Step 3: Give yourself time to be an intentional thinker.** Carve out blocks of time where you can process with intention. When you have blocks of time for specific topics this helps you be intentional. When certain worries or work situations come into your mind, you can say to yourself, "Ok but I'm not processing that now. Right now I'm focused on (whatever you actually intend to focus on)." AND these blocks of time don't have to just be empty timeslots where you sit staring into space - not that there's anything wrong with that :) ...but it could be meeting with a person who is your trusted sounding board and just talking through something together. That's a perfectly valid way of intentional processing. Another - one of my favorite - is drawing or diagramming out a view of a complex situation or issue. That exercise of putting it out into visual form is a very helpful way of processing.
**Step 4: Make notes that help you retain important details** you can refer to when it's time to process something. Part of what consumes some of our mental energy is the fear that we will forget something important, or that we won't remember certain key details, or somehow won't be prepared. Writing things down in a space that you always revisit (like a journal or note taking app that you use consistently) can really help. Tip: Pick one place and write things there. Resist the temptation to write things in multiple places...you'll burn extra energy trying to find things. Once something is written down in a safe space that you know you can refer to later can free up your mind to focus on that you need to process right now.
One quick note: There is a more serious version of unintentional mental processing that sometimes is labeled as "rumination" or connected to Obsessive Compulsive Disorder. If you feel like this might describe your situation, talk to your doctor to see how you can best support your health and wellness.
### Summing up what you've just learned
In conclusion, our minds have a tendency to fixate on both high-value and low-value topics with equal intensity, often wasting time and mental energy. To avoid this, it is crucial to learn how to intervene and direct our focus intentionally. By following these steps—starting to notice what your mind is processing, pausing to evaluate the worth of your thoughts, dedicating time for intentional thinking, and making notes to capture important details—you can cultivate a habit of purposeful mental processing. This will not only enhance your productivity and well-being but also prevent you from getting stuck in unproductive mental loops. If you struggle with serious rumination or OCD, it is important to seek professional help.
---
## Midyear: uncertain economic outlook
In its midyear outlook, BlackRock [outlines 5 potential economic scenarios](https://www.blackrock.com/americas-offshore/en/insights/blackrock-investment-institute/outlook?ref=s3t.org), 2 of which involve "hard landings" ..only 1 is outright positive.
Consumer spending is [losing momentum notes Goldman Sachs](https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/is-us-consumer-spending-losing-momentum.html?ref=s3t.org).
Customers fed up with inflation are [directing their outrage at Big Retail](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/08/inflation-walmart-chipotle-criticized-over-prices.html?ref=s3t.org) as the large companies flirt with ideas like dynamic demand-based pricing (similar to Uber's "surge" pricing). Republicans are [making the most of](https://www.axios.com/2024/07/11/axios-event-rnc-cost-of-living-crisis?ref=s3t.org) the economic uncertainty.
Conservatives are [moving to enclaves in what some worry is "a great sort."](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/04/us/claremont-institute-trump-conservatives.html?ref=s3t.org) This is being painted as a cultural phenomenon but may also be a continuation of a longer term cost of living based "sort" that has been happening with both sides of the political spectrum for a few years now. See "[Wage Inflation: Geographic Moves.." in the Feb 27 2022 edition of S3T](https://www.s3t.org/s3t-feb-27/).
As noted in S3T previously, the Fed's ineffective war on inflation did not address the root cause of *corporate pricing power* and *regulated monopolies*. ([See S3T May 17 2024](https://www.s3t.org/s3t-may-17-2024/))Together these factors have been driving a form of perennial inflation that predated the pandemic, and as headlines are starting to report, won't be impacted materially by interest rates.
[🔮 Inflation PerspectivesS3T equips you to make a difference.S3TRalph Perrine](https://www.s3t.org/inflation-perspectives/)
## AI Prospects - eCommerce disruptor or Titanic?
ARK Invest thinks GenAI agents will disintermediate search engines and shift $9T worth of retail from the web to OS or Device based apps. See Hackernoon's [explainer with helpful diagrams](https://hackernoon.com/ai-facilitated-online-sales-forecasted-to-reach-$9-trillion-by-2030?ref=s3t.org).
[OpenAI thinks its at level 2 in a 5 level climb](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-11/openai-sets-levels-to-track-progress-toward-superintelligent-ai?ref=s3t.org) toward Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). One of its prominent employees just quit, saying he fears the company is "[the Titanic of AI](https://cointelegraph.com/news/open-ai-artificial-intelligence-safety-employee-quit-titanic?ref=s3t.org)".
## Crypto gets hardwired into the Republican party platform
Crypto is now [written into the 2024 GOP party platform](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/history-has-been-made-why-promises-by-trump-gop-platform-to-defend-crypto-are-a-big-deal-for-the-industry-17eeff8f?ref=s3t.org), as [progressives urge the Democratic Party](https://progresschamber.org/tech-urges-biden-to-support-crypto-legislation-following-release-of-gop-platform/?ref=s3t.org) to do the same.
One might ask - [with crypto prices on a downward slide recently](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/07/11/crypto-speculation-index-slide-suggests-bitcoin-bull-market-reset/?ref=s3t.org) \- whether Crypto is a timely political topic. I think it’s important to step back and look at the longer trend in the drivers for financial innovation.
- Historically, money and stores of value were issued and controlled by centralized governments.
- Crypto, and Bitcoin specifically, broke this pattern and represents the first time in history (first we know of...feel free to raise examples if you know them) where a form of money has emerged without the sponsorship of a government, with the built in ability to combat the achilles heel of Government issued money.
- Government issued money (fiat money) has always tended toward devaluation and inflation.
- Between World War II and 9/11 the US enjoyed a very unique financial position in the world, which gave it flexibility for delaying and concealing currency devaluation and inflation in ways that most nations in most eras can't.
***Reasonable question: how long this is gonna last?***
People look at this in 1 of 2 ways:
- The end US financial hegemony would be welcome and long overdue
- The US financial hegemony has been largely beneficial and needs to be extended
But either way, you don’t look at the current financial system and think to yourself, "This is the future."
Either way you end up rooting for financial innovation - specifically the kinds of new financial building blocks that have been coming out of the crypto space, the inevitable merger of networks, cryptography and money.
This kind of financial innovation has been an intuition of many for *decades* now. I remember being in conversations with VCs *back in the mid-90s* about the feasibility of digital money based on unique network addressing schemes. What we are witnessing today is the result of a long arc of a fairly obvious evolution, as people scattered across different fields intuitively converge on similar ideas about the future of finance.
This why its been so painful for some of us to watch in recent years as an influential block of the Democratic Party miss clue after clue, consistently taking an anti-innovation stance against crypto, and taking it so far as to hand the GOP what could be a decisive advantage in the upcoming election.
---
## Career Opportunity in Nature and AI
### iNaturalist is hiring a Head of Engineering. [Go here to learn more and apply](https://app.beapplied.com/apply/gotyyjtuxa?ref=s3t.org).
**iNaturalist** is the leading biodiversity platform crowdsourcing one of the world's largest biodiversity databases, . With 4 million monthly active users and 400 thousand monthly active contributors, each month iNaturalist generates over 6 million observations of over 100 thousand distinct species. The iNaturalist database is the backbone of conservation science, supports a global network of stewards, and motivates a movement of nature advocates. Launched in 2008 and operating as a nonprofit committed to open data, iNaturalist is at the forefront of combining crowdsourcing and AI models to further our mission.
---
*Thank you for reading and sharing S3T. If you are enjoying S3T please give it a like or repost on LinkedIn or other platforms where you learn and share! This helps us with our mission of encouraging change leaders and innovators in their vital work.*
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed.*
### 🇺🇸Zenocracy: 5 tweaks to reframe politics and see a better path forward
URL: https://www.s3t.org/july-5-2024/
Last updated: 2024-07-13T16:13:46.000Z
**🎧** [**Listen to this episode on the S3T Podcast**](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org) **\-** *Be sure to follow the S3T podcast so you never miss a show!*
***S3T Special Edition: Making adjustments to our political vocabulary and our thinking about democracy, is the first step on a better path forward.***
🇺🇸 This week as the US celebrates its 248th birthday, there's something on everyone's mind, especially with the recent headlines and the upcoming election: its this eerie feeling that **something's not right about our democracy but our current political vocabulary doesn’t give us the words to diagnose what it is.** Or how to move to something better.
We are steeped in certain ways of thinking and talking about democracy - locked in to the logic of “left vs right“ and “center” or "political gridlock" etc. These ways of thinking - clearly - haven't been getting us the results we want...regardless of what side of the spectrum you may happen to be today. The one thing we ALL can agree on, the one common ground we ALL have is: we aren't very happy with how this works.
So maybe - just maybe - it's time to rethink our vocabulary and conventional wisdom about our democracy. What it means for our individual responsibilities and interactions, and what it means for us all together - in our towns, states and our nation.
*So what would help us do that?* Call me crazy...
### Moving trucks, steering wheels, and rear view mirrors offer some silly simple but powerful hints about how to break out of political dysfunction.
Making a few changes to the words and phrases we use to describe democracy, politics and the experience of being a citizen, can help us start to think and work differently. The ripple effect can be better than you might expect.
Photo by [Erik Mclean](https://unsplash.com/@introspectivedsgn?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
...no this is not a placement ad for U-Haul. It was the only photo I could find.
## Did you ever have to back a moving truck into a driveway?
You probably approach this task with a certain amount of trepidation. You don't want to hit your mailbox on one side, and you don't want to run over the rose bushess on the other side. You want to get the truck in the ideal position - the shortest path for bringing stuff out of your house and putting it into the truck.
So you use your mirrors yes, the left one *and* the right one. You also use your steering wheel to turn sometimes to the right, sometimes to the left.
You see where I'm going with this?
You may even have one or two people on each side of the truck so they can help guide you. You do this so you can **so you can end up where you want to be, while minimizing the chance of a mishap.**
Like I said it's silly simple...but **this is the basic skill that seems to be eluding us as a nation. Getting to where we want to be while minimizing risks of mishaps.**
### **Driving your car vs driving a moving truck: the difference holds a few key hints about how to make democracy work in the 21st century.**
In this simple scenario you were willing to make *5 tweaks* to your normal driving and thinking patterns. These tweaks helped you successfully get the moving truck where you wanted it:
You were willing to make 5 adjustments:
- Get out of your comfort zone,
- Engage in a specific, real - not hypothetical - situation
- Set a clear destination and purpose
- Use multiple perspectives to help you navigate,
- Made frequent adjustments based on careful observation.
Let's unpack these 5 tweaks, and see how they offer powerful changes to how we think and work in our democracy.
### Get out of your comfort zone
If you're like the average person, you don't drive moving trucks very frequently. They're big and they don't handle the same familiar way your car handles. To top it off, you're having to drive it backwards. You're - in a small way - *getting outside of your comfort zone*, in order to accomplish something important to you and your family.
If we are to enjoy the benefits of citizenship in a functional democracy, it means all of us have to get out of our comfort zones in order to help achieve things that are important to our families and communities. It means engaging with people who might think differently, or might focus on different priorities than you do.
### **Engage in specific real world contexts not hypotheticals**
This moving truck, in this driveway, today. You are not writing a white paper about moving trucks. You're opening a truck door and sliding into the truck seat. You're not talking about it, you're doing it.
This is key - I've seen it over and over: Ask any group of people about a hypothetical scenario or problem, and they'll have all kinds of conflicting answers. **In the hypothetical we all can remain hopelessly and indefinitely at odds. But put us in a specific situation where we have skin in the game, and we can bring our different viewpoints together to solve the problem.**
This proves true over and over. Why? Because non-hypothetical situations engages people differently. What if? is different from What next? We are ultimately empirical creatures. We want the facts. We want something that works. We want to see it for ourselves. We want to watch what's happening and then make adjustments. We want to experiment and solve. We want to see stuff get fixed.
Unfortunately ad-driven news channels don't let us work this way. Instead of giving us avenues of action, they give us prompts for ads and anxiety. They flood us with alarmist messaging intended to keep us glued to our phones or TVs for endless periods of time - *not* so we can be informed active citizens, but so we can be paralyzed anxious consumers, clicking ads & spending cash to make food and stuff show up on our doorstep.
So the answer is get out of the hypothetical and go work with other people on solving something real. Steer clear of political discussions over distant situations that you have no empirical ability to interact with. The emperical and the hypothetical don't mix. One understands scarcity, consequences and the power of action driven learning to solve things people thought couldn't be solved. The other is content with all talk and no action.
### Have clear goals
Once you get out of the hypothetical and start working with others on fixing real problems, you come to the next tweak: having a clear goal and outcome vs something vague like "never let the other side win." That kind of vague notion could materialize in a lot of ways that all sides will regret. Clear destinations...this is what we want by this timeframe.
In the moving truck example, your goal is to position the moving truck at the best possible point for loading, without having a mishap. You had a specific goal and specific limited time to get it done.
Establish a clear vision of where we want to go as a nation on specific opportunities. What's the outcome. Where do we want to be? What do we want to be like? What will it take to get there?
### Let multiple perspectives guide you
A truck that can only steer right, or only steer left, is doomed to go in circles. Likewise mirrors on the right only, or the left only, leave us with huge blind spots.
We need multiple perspectives to navigate and solve the complex problems we face today. This means we need to make it possible for people of all educational backgrounds to participate in the political process. By fostering inclusivity and valuing diverse perspectives and encouraging broad engagement, we can create a more vibrant and effective democracy.
One more thing: Leading the conversation is not the same as dominating the conversation - or doing all the talking. Leading the conversation means making sure a good conversation happens. Having a respect for the different kinds of problem solving skills that diverse sets of people can bring. As noted in [The Upside of Wicked Problems](https://www.s3t.org/the-upside-of-wicked-problems/), complex issues don't yield to single disciplines or simple recipes.
### Navigation not centrism
People abandon centrism and shift to far right or left ideologies when they feel like their needs aren't being met. For these individuals and communities, centrism offers little more than a useless exercise find a middle between ideological extremes - Placating, pragmatic, lacking principal and focused on appeasement and ending up with casseroles of compromise that don't effectively address the root causes.
Adding the element of navigation can give us a different position to think and work from: Back to the moving truck analogy. The goal was not simply to be "in the middle of the driveway." The goal was to get the truck in the best position for loading it up, while minimizing the risk of a mishap like hitting the mail box or the rose bushes.
Remember Navigation Not Centrism: This is not about being a centrist or "finding middle ground" ...locating some compromise that is the average of all least offensive proposals. ***Navigation means finding the best route forward***, which often involves integrating diverse viewpoints and adapting to new information.
### Make frequent adjustments based on careful observation
When you're backing the moving truck up the driveway, what are you doing the entire time? Watching. Taking it slow. Using your mirrors. Checking with the 2 people who are signaling if you're getting to close to one thing or the other. And signaling when you need to stop so you don't hit the house.
In other words, you're moving intentionally, and making adjustments - steering the wheel to the right, then to the left, then back...all based on constant careful observation and feedback about how you're progressing. You're making frequent adjustments based on continuous careful observation.
This continuous observation and frequent adjustments was one of the key best practices of the Omaha 360 project - an effort in Omaha, Nebraska that reduced gun violence and is being emulated now in other cities.
Omaha has significantly reduced gun violence, homocides and police complaints thanks to Omaha 360 a collaborative effort that brings local government and community stakeholders together on a regular basis to listen, share updates, and decide what issues to focus on in the next 7-10 days. This [profile shares an overview](https://abcnews.go.com/US/omaha-nebraska-cut-gun-violence-half-become-model/story?id=96799185&utm%5Fsource=pocket-newtab) of the working processes, and this [Omaha 360 web page has contact information](https://empoweromaha.com/omaha-360/?ref=s3t.org).
## Conclusion
The fundamental challenge of democracy in the 21st century is find an inclusive and effective ways to solve problems and manage risks on a large scale. This requires that we introduce new key words and concepts into our political vocabulary. I think it would be exciting to explore and lean into a something we might call Zenocracy, the next generation - better more engaged and effective - version of democracy that embodies the tweaks discussed above. A recipe for happiness in an age of complexity.
In conclusion, change starts with a willingness to think differently. And this can start by being willing to introduce some new words and concepts to our political vocabulary. By moving from an opinion-based to an empirical, problem-solving approach, setting clear goals, and fostering inclusivity, we can navigate our political landscape more effectively and create lasting, positive change.
As we reflect on the events and memories that shape our national story this Independence Day weekend, I want to thank you for your commitment to learning about change leadership - what is most likely going to be recognized as the most critical skillset of our age. And thank you for the positive beneficial change you are working hard to bring to the communities and customers wherever you are. I hope you have a wonderful weekend and a great week ahead!
---
Photo by [Buddha Elemental](https://unsplash.com/@buddhaelemental?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
---
*Thank you for reading and sharing S3T. If you are enjoying S3T please give it a like or repost on LinkedIn or other platforms where you learn and share! This helps us with our mission of encouraging change leaders and innovators in their vital work.*
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed.*
### 🥡Debating the economy, presidential-like, 4M, AI Characters, Eth costs, and unlocking value via data modernization
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-june-28-2024-debating-the-economy-presidential-like-4m-ai-characters-eth-costs-and-unlocking-value-via-data-modernization/
Last updated: 2024-07-13T16:24:32.000Z
*Welcome to S3T, the essential newsletter, podcast, and learning platform for change leaders. Every week we review the top developments and insights you need to stay ahead of the curve, build your ethics & leadership skills, and drive intentional beneficial innovation.*
**🎧** [**Listen to this episode on the S3T Podcast**](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org) **\-** *Be sure to follow the S3T podcast so you never miss a show!*
## In this edition of S3T:
- **Presidential Debate on Economy** 🗣️: Highlighted inflation pains and economic disparities.
- **US Economy** 📊: Leads G7 in rebound but struggles with high inflation and a declining Prosperity Index.
- **Economic Charts** 📈: Atlantic Council's charts show US economic trends that need more attention.
- **Inflation Insight** 💹: Corporate pricing power has driven ongoing inflation, masked by modified tracking methods.
- **AI News** 🚀: Apple and EPFL release 4M framework for multimodal models.
- **AI Partnerships** 🤝: Apple in talks with AI companies, including Meta, for AI integration in daily life.
- **Data Modernization Challenges** 🗄️: Generative AI drives the need for data modernization, but legacy systems and data politics create significant hurdles. This week we'll learn 8 strategies for data modernizations that prepare organizations to leverage AI to unlock value in their data.
---
### Presidential Debate Highlights
The presidential debates highlighted inflation pains felt by families, but the [economy was discussed as if it were two different worlds](https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/27/politics/video/economy-biden-trump-cnn-debate-digvid?ref=s3t.org).
The Atlantic Council has prepared [a set of (really good) charts on the US Economy](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/your-presidential-debate-prep-on-the-us-economy-in-charts/?ref=s3t.org) with some key items that should have gotten more airtime in the debate:
- The US leads the G7 nations in economic rebound, but
- The US still has higher inflation that most others, and falls behind Germany, Canada, Japan, the UK even Italy on the Prosperity Index - a falling trend since 1995.
- US economy has rising GDP and declining emissions (that's a good accomplishment)
I think what gets lost in the tit for tat about who had the best economy is that yes, inflation is high, **but that's not a recent trend - its decades old**, as noted in previous editions of S3T. Perennial inflation driven by corporate pricing power has been doing its dirty work for a long time. For a while, the issue was masked by modified inflation tracking, as reported in the [March 22 edition of S3T](https://www.s3t.org/march-22-2024/). We just happen to be in a phrase right now where its harder and harder to hide.
Related: [The Flawed Evolution of Economics](https://www.s3t.org/the-evolution-of-economics/)
---
### Quote of the Week
💡
**"If 54% of finance can be automated by GenAI, then why can't 54% of Government be automated and the income taxes can be reduced...Formal economics is decades behind...they can't explain NVIDIA."* \- Kartik Gada, 3rd Millennium Economics, ISSIP Future of Finance Forum.
---
### Apple and EPFL release 4M - vision and multimodal generative models
4M - [Massively Multimodal Masked Modeling](https://4m.epfl.ch/?ref=s3t.org) is an open source framework for any-to-any multimodal foundation models. Out of the box 4M can perform a wide range of vision tasks such as captioning, object detection, 2D edges, 3d curvature and a lot more. [Start exploring 4M on Github](https://github.com/apple/ml-4m?tab=readme-ov-file&ref=s3t.org#readme).
### Apple + OpenAI + Meta + others
On the heels of Apple/OpenAI's partnership, news that multiple AI companies including [Meta are talking with Apple](https://www.reuters.com/technology/apple-meta-have-discussed-an-ai-partnership-wsj-reports-2024-06-23/?utm%5Fsource=superhuman&utm%5Fmedium=newsletter&utm%5Fcampaign=apple-s-ai-push-takes-a-turn) about AI partnerships hints that Apple may be able to position itself as the preferred gateway through which to incorporate AI into everyday life. [Original WSJ piece here](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/apple-meta-have-discussed-an-ai-partnership-cc57437e?ref=s3t.org).
### Ethereum efficiencies kick in
As [predicted back in February](https://beincrypto.com/ethereum-transaction-fees-drop-ten-times/?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=Ethereum's%20Dencun%20upgrade%20is%20set,times%2C%20enhancing%20cost%2Deffectiveness.), the cost to conduct transactions on [Ethereum drops to lowest levels seen in years, even as network activity continues to soar](https://unchainedcrypto.com/ethereum-gas-fees-at-rock-bottom-as-network-activity-soars/?ref=s3t.org). Ethereum continues to evolve in a measured intentional way.
Go here for a [complete history of S3T editions covering Ethereum](https://www.s3t.org/tag/ethereum/).
### AI Characters
[Meta is testing AI characters on Instagram](https://techcrunch.com/2024/06/27/meta-starts-testing-user-created-ai-chatbots-on-instagram/?guccounter=1&guce%5Freferrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cudGVjaG1lbWUuY29tLw&guce%5Freferrer%5Fsig=AQAAAKrIRhQpPiaPZ9TnwwjDobpA%5Fv8BPrSo8v8lB6HGlETDvHOfgeYELZr4RvBTjXamfx-Bb4yYeDFE5s2VTTDLSiDr7yHw5qf%5FIXNww8dGd4BstEOVXeYl3vNjnUWKlrh-uFPNM1ESJDqc52q0qIr2KFJCA-DqgsNwaybEKaFLjB-O&ref=s3t.org) \- Meta promises special labeling. [Character.AI](https://character.ai/?ref=s3t.org) (which has been enabling the creation of AI personas for some time now) is now enabling users to [talk with AI characters via a phone call](https://techcrunch.com/2024/06/27/character-ai-now-allows-users-to-talk-with-avatars-over-calls/?ref=s3t.org) in multiple languages including English, Spanish, Russian, Japanese, Chinese and more. [Dragonbridge](https://blog.google/threat-analysis-group/google-disrupted-dragonbridge-activity-q1-2024/?ref=s3t.org) is an example of where this can go.
Photo by [Carlos Muza](https://unsplash.com/@kmuza?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## The politics of data: challenges for data modernization and corporate use of AI
###
"First get control of the data" he said.
It was January 2001\. We were in my corner office on the 22nd floor of the nicest building of downtown Honolulu, a highflying startup - for the moment. My boss had come from other successful experiences in Asia, but the mindset he shared represented the same mindset of many in US based IT enterprises - then and now.
*Get the data. Keep it under your control. If you control the data, nothing else matters.*
A few months later, 9/11 would happen. A few short weeks after that our startup would close down as investors reacted to the uncertainty in the aftermath of 9/11\.
But the simple blunt way he summarized the politics of data has always stayed with me, as an example of the very common thinking that drives the fears, resistance, and often tug of war decision-making that always seems to coincide with large and valuable collections of data.
### The long and winding path to unlocking the full value of your data with AI
Today, Generative AI (GenAI) is motivating corporate leaders to unlock the full value of data stored in their enterprise data warehouses. However, the **politics of data** make this endeavor more challenging than expected. Unlike the freely available Internet data used to train Big Tech's large language models (LLMs), much of the corporate world's high value domain-specific data remains trapped in legacy systems.
Significant investments in data modernization are essential to leverage AI and unlock this data's true potential. Unfortunately, data politics - and hesitation due to fears of losing control - can interfere with the planning and execution of data modernizations, and limit the value delivered.
Understanding the politics of data is crucial for any change initiatives involving data or AI. Change leaders must navigate these challenges effectively - and the good news is - principles for data-related change leadership can also apply broadly to other change leadership scenarios.
In the continued learning section below you'll find three S3T Playbooks for Change Leaders, each providing timely advice and skill building that you can immediately apply in your work.
## Continued Learning
*Continue your learning and dive deeper with these resources for Paying Members. If you haven't gotten your own Paid Membership yet, click the subscribe button here to unlock full access and continue your essential learning!*
### [S3T Playbook: 8 Strategies for Successful Data Modernization](https://www.s3t.org/s3t-playbook-data-modernization/)
###
[S3T Playbook: 6 Proven Ways to Resolve Conflicts](https://www.s3t.org/6-ways-to-resolve-conflicts/)
###
[S3T Playbook: Developing and Maintaining an Independent Understanding of the Modern Technology Landscape](https://www.s3t.org/s3t-playbook-developing-and-maintaining-an-independent-understanding-of-modern-technology/)
---
## Nature Notes: Ghost Pipe
This is a good time of year to look for Ghost Pipes in your hikes. These rare plants, which have no chlorophyl, live in shaded forests. This one seen at Brumley Forest near Hillsborough, NC. [Learn more about the Ghost Pipe at iNaturalist.org](https://www.inaturalist.org/taxa/49477-Monotropa-uniflora?locale=en-US&ref=s3t.org)
---
*Thank you for reading and sharing S3T. If you are enjoying S3T please give it a like or repost on LinkedIn or other platforms where you learn and share! This helps us with our mission of encouraging change leaders and innovators in their vital work.*
---
Photo by [Rayana Gasparotto](https://unsplash.com/@raygasparotto?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### About S3T
S3T (pronounced "set") is a community of change leaders who are committed to learning and developing their change leadership skillset, and then applying those skills to drive intentional innovation toward beneficial change.
Change Leadership is fast becoming recognized as the most critical skillset of the 21st century. This skillset is comprised of 3 competencies that are traditionally taught separately but *should be taught together*: Emerging Tech Literacy, Economic Literacy, and Influential Leadership.
To effectively address the most urgent problems of the world, change leaders must
- leverage emerging technologies in thoughtful beneficial ways,
- effectively address flawed economic beliefs that drive resistance to change, and
- work as a positive influential leaders who empower other change leaders to compassionately learn the needs of individuals and communities, envision a better future, break it down into executable chunks of code, work, policy, and best practices, then navigate the challenges and barriers on the road to that better future.
S3T community members are following this pattern to drive mobility rights, more ethical AI, affordable healthcare, more equitable decentralized finance and much more.
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed.*
### 😔SPAC woes, Crypto politics, Decentralized Solar, Op_CAT, Sharks, Radiopharmaceuticals
URL: https://www.s3t.org/june-21-2024/
Last updated: 2024-07-13T16:15:17.000Z
*Welcome to S3T, the essential newsletter, podcast, and learning platform for change leaders. Every week we review the top developments and insights you need to stay ahead of the curve, build your ethics & leadership skills, and drive intentional beneficial innovation.*
**Welcome new members! If you are a paying member, remember to click the Members link in the menu for access to all the exclusive member content!**
**🎧** [**Listen to this episode on the S3T Podcast**](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org) **\-** *Be sure to follow the S3T podcast so you never miss a show!*
## In this edition of S3T:
- 📉 **SPACs Falling Out of Favor**: SPACs' popularity declined due to poor average returns and new SEC rules making them as slow as traditional IPOs.
- 🏦 **Regional Bank Woes**: Regional banks face more failures due to empty office buildings and suspect commercial real estate loans.
- 🪙 **SEC Drops Ethereum Investigation**: The SEC ended its investigation into Consensys, signaling a political shift towards crypto support. Paul Ryan suggested stablecoins could strengthen the US dollar.
- ☀️ **Decentralized Solar in Africa**: 65% of Africa's new solar capacity since 2022 comes from decentralized installations, reducing reliance on inefficient energy suppliers and boosting economic growth.
- 🌍 **De-Globalization's Financial Impact**: De-globalization disrupts global risk markets, increasing insurance costs and instability. Innovative risk management approaches are needed to navigate these challenges.
- 💊 **Radiopharmaceuticals Investment**: Biopharma companies are investing in next-generation radiopharmaceuticals for targeted cancer treatment. These expensive precision medicines raise affordability and access concerns.
- 💡 **AI Getting Physical**: Ray Kurzweil predicts AI will revolutionize medicine, manufacturing, and energy. AI could make solar energy projects more cost-effective.
- 🦈 **Shark Conservation**: Efforts to protect endangered sharks are crucial for ocean ecosystems. Illegal finning practices threaten shark populations, which are vital for maintaining marine balance.
- 🏛️ **Educating Finance on Ethereum**: Sam Jernigan explains Ethereum's value to traditional financiers by comparing it to SWIFT and CHIPs, emphasizing its cost-effective and secure transaction capabilities.
- 🛡️ **Bitcoin's OP\_CAT Debate**: Bitcoin developers consider reintroducing the OP\_CAT opcode for enhanced functionality, sparking debates about security and the cryptocurrency's core mission.
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed.*
Photo by [Sarah Kilian](https://unsplash.com/@rojekilian?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Falling Out of favor: Special Purpose Acquisition Corporations (SPACs).
[SPACs were a favorite "fast track" to IPO mainly because they lacked transparency](https://www.workiva.com/blog/special-purpose-acquisition-companies?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=And%20even%20when%20they%20were,an%20IPO%20through%20a%20SPAC.) \- and were geared to benefit investors more than companies. SPACs are falling out of favor for 2 reasons:
- **Track record:** The 400 companies that went public via SPAC had average returns of -67% ([Finchat notes 10 rare exceptions with positive returns](https://x.com/finchat%5Fio/status/1801285103337029922?ref=s3t.org)). Affiliation with public figures didn't help: [SPACs that are tied to public figures usually fail](https://www.forbes.com/sites/korihale/2024/01/11/why-are-spac-investors-returns-down-67/?ref=s3t.org).
- **New rules:** [New SEC disclosure rules mean SPACs will take about the same time as traditional IPOs](https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2024-8?ref=s3t.org).
### Regional Bank Woes
[More regional bank failures on the way](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/banking-law/pimco-warns-of-more-us-regional-bank-failures-on-property-pain?ref=s3t.org) says Pacific Investment Management Co. - empty office buildings are part of the cause, the other is the commercial real estate loans originated during a time of easy money, and the previous valuations of the buildings themselves are just not holding up. The softening job market isn't helping.
### SEC Drops Ethereum Investigation
The [SEC notified Consensys this week that it is dropping its investigation](https://blockworks.co/news/sec-drops-ethereum-consensys-investigation?ref=s3t.org) into whether Consensys broke securities law by offering Ethereum. This legal position (Ethereum as a security) is of course is at odds with the SEC's Ethereum spot market approvals issued in May. This continues to reinforce the sense of that there is a turning point in the politics around crypto - as both political parties now seem to be [competing to show their support for crypto](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-money/2024/06/03/a-wild-new-era-for-crypto-politics-00161214?ref=s3t.org).
**Related**: [Paul Ryan suggests stablecoins could improve US dollar position](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/paul-ryan-says-crypto-could-131912261.html?ref=s3t.org) in his [June 13 WSJ Opinion piece](https://www.wsj.com/articles/stablecoins-could-stave-off-a-us-debt-crisis-china-digital-currency-c491d717?ref=s3t.org).
### Educating Traditional Finance about Ethereum
This [excellent Bankless interview with Sam Jernigan](https://www.bankless.com/diaries-of-an-eth-maxi-on-wall-street-sam-jernigan?ref=s3t.org) offers one of the most succinct explanations of the value prop for Ethereum. Jernigan shares his favorite way to explain the value of Ethereum to traditional financiers: Ethereum is like SWIFT + CHIPs:
- [SWIFT](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/050515/how-swift-system-works.asp?ref=s3t.org) \- the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecom - is the secure messaging system of the traditional banking world.
- [CHIPS](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/clearing-house-interbank-payments-system-chips.asp?ref=s3t.org) (Clearing House Interbank Payments System) is the financial settlement clearing house for banking transactions.
Ethereum provides more cost effective and secure versions of both.
In his Decentralized Finance advocacy and education, Jernigan is following an established playbook of change leaders:
- Expertise and connections in two different industries or areas of expertise, in his case Wall St and Crypto.
- Importing knowledge and ideas from one industry to another.
- Challenging the standing conventional wisdom of an incumbent industry
### ☀️Decentralization isn't just for finance
[65% of Africa's new solar capacity since 2022 was installed by large firms contracting directly with developers](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2024/06/18/private-firms-are-driving-a-revolution-in-solar-power-in-africa?ref=s3t.org). Decentralized solar installations are reducing Africa's reliance on dysfunctional energy suppliers that have been a drag on Africa's economic growth.
---
Photo by [Gustavo Quepón](https://unsplash.com/@unandalusgus?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### AI & the Physical World
Ray Kurzweil says [AI is on track to transform the physical world](https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2024/06/17/ray-kurzweil-on-how-ai-will-transform-the-physical-world?ref=s3t.org), with profound implications for medicine, manufacturing and energy. One example Kurzweil offers: what if we used AI to accelerate our exploration of more cost effective chemistries and optimal materials? This could enable "photovoltaic megaprojects" that make solar energy so ubiquitous and efficient it would be "almost free."
### Radiopharmaceuticals
Biopharma heavyweights are [increasing their investments in next generation radiopharmacueticals](https://knowablemagazine.org/content/article/health-disease/2024/cancer-fighting-radiopharmaceuticals-are-taking-off?ref=s3t.org) \- a different approach to cancer treatment that uses radioactive particles that, unlike previous radiation therapies, selectively bind on specific cancer cells and can be highly targeted to specific cancers.
Like other precision medicines, radiopharmaceutical are not cheap, and add to the challenge of ensuring affordability and equal access to care. [William Haseltine has a good deep dive into the cost drivers of for precision medicine](https://www.insideprecisionmedicine.com/topics/precision-medicine/bridging-gaps-for-affordable-cell-and-gene-therapies-overcoming-financial-and-systematic-obstacles/?ref=s3t.org) and some of the novel financing methods that are being experimented with to identify ways to ensure affordability.
### What is OP\_CAT and what it may mean for Bitcoin
OP\_CAT - short for "operation concatenate" is an opcode that allows for the combination of two pieces of data into a single piece of data during the execution of a Bitcoin transaction, and could be used to extend or limit functionality. Bitcoin's original creator Satoshi apparently for security concerns removed the opcode back in 2011\. Now some Bitcoin developers want to bring it back, in order to give Bitcoin more functionality beyond a trusted store of value - akin to Ethereum or other networks which offer expanded functionality.
Not everyone is enthusiastic about the idea - [some propose that OP\_ZKP (zero knowledge proof) would be more useful](https://coinmarketcal.com/en/news/bitcoin-needs-this-op-code-more-than-op-cat?ref=s3t.org) while [others have outlined key concerns that need to be addressed](https://thedefiant.io/news/blockchains/it-might-be-hard-explaining-future-devs-why-we-did-these-things-with-op%5Fcat-says-bip-author?ref=s3t.org). They argue that the Bitcoin as neutral money - the first money in history not issued or controlled by a central government - is enough of an accomplishment - let well enough alone.
But it is not in our nature to let well enough alone. So expect experimentation - and with that, the potential for risk, or at least perceived risks, which may lead to yes you guessed it: our old friend Vola Tility.
---
Photo by [Marjan Blan](https://unsplash.com/@marjan%5Fblan?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## De-Globalization, Risk Agility & New Opportunities
This week, headlines about a North Korea - Russia treaty (a [bromance says the Economist](https://www.economist.com/asia/2024/06/16/vladimir-putins-dangerous-bromance-with-kim-jong-un?ref=s3t.org)) set off alarms in capitals around the world, especially in Korea and Japan.
When we think about de-globalization and its associated tensions, our minds tend to jump to worries about war, which in the 21st century comes in multiple flavors: cyber, financial, drone-based, in addition to traditional conflict.
However, the financial implications of de-globalization may be the most pervasive and deeply ingrained, affecting economies on a global scale rather than just being isolated events. These financial shifts can lead to widespread economic instability, disrupt supply chains, and create new challenges for industries and governments as they navigate an increasingly fragmented global market.
One critical area impacted by de-globalization is the global risk markets, the retrocessionaires essential to reinsurance. Reinsurance, in turn, underpins most forms of insurance, enabling the world's industries and individuals to function and thrive in spite of risks.
As de-globalization progresses, these critical players may find themselves fractured along geopolitical lines, with grave potential for increased costs and reduced availability of insurance coverage. This could ripple through various sectors, affecting everything from healthcare to manufacturing, and highlight the need for innovative solutions to manage risk in a less interconnected world. Understanding these impacts is crucial for developing strategies to mitigate risks and ensure stability in an interconnected world that is slowly pulling apart.
In *Global Risk Agility and Decision Making* Daniel Wagner and Dante Disparte argue that our era of man-made risks (climate, cybersecurity, terrorism) require a set of new approaches as traditional risk approaches become obsolete. The authors argue for a new Agile Risk Manager that is "part sociologist, anthropologist, psychologist and quant who no longer treats risk as a cost of doing business, but instead as a catalyst for growth."
This new era will bring a new [international financial architecture (IFA)](https://www.ft.com/content/7426943f-b920-4a8a-8714-77627acc19d9?ref=s3t.org) that will offer particularly interesting opportunities for healthcare - which has been the source of a large, persistent and growing category of risk: Healthcare driven risks. In the wake of ACA these risks have been largely dumped on doctors and their patients - two parties that are, in contrast to global risk investors, profoundly ill-prepared to manage - let alone monetize - risk.
**Another (really good) take:** [Brad Setser's Foreign Affairs piece](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/globalization-dangerous-myth-economy-brad-setser?ref=s3t.org) at first glance seems to be arguing that de-globalization is a myth...but further in, it becomes clear that Brad's intent is to draw a distinction between healthy and unhealthy forms of international cooperation.
Brad warns that [many unhealthy forms of globalization still exist](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/globalization-dangerous-myth-economy-brad-setser?ref=s3t.org):
> "if policymakers focus discussion on the costs of deglobalization, they risk overlooking the many unhealthy forms of globalization that still exist and persist relatively undisturbed. China’s role in middle America’s deindustrialization is now widely acknowledged. **But the role that the U.S. corporate tax code plays in that deindustrialization is not**. Allowing American corporations to continue to use tax-avoidance strategies that transfer profits and production out of the United States is unhealthy for the global economy, even if it boosts measures of U.S. trade and foreign investment."
---
## 🦈 Nature Notes: how sharks maintain healthy ocean ecosystems
Photo by [David Clode](https://unsplash.com/@davidclode?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
In the fascinating world of ocean science and sustainability, [scientists like Diego Cardeñosa work with local fishermen to protect endangered species like the smallest hammerhead shark](https://knowablemagazine.org/content/article/food-environment/2024/the-scientific-mission-to-save-the-sharks?utm%5Fsource=Knowable+Magazine&utm%5Fcampaign=956e92a2f8-KM%5FNEWSLETTER%5F2024%5F06%5F16&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fterm=0%5F-956e92a2f8-%5BLIST%5FEMAIL%5FID%5D), the yellow hammerhead. By tagging and tracking these sharks, they gather crucial data to help conserve marine life, ensuring a future for these incredible creatures and their habitats.
Unfortunately, sharks are becoming critically endangered due to the illegal practice of "finning"—a brutal practice of cutting off their fins and leaving them to die, all for a bowl of shark fin soup that costs over $100\. (another example of flawed values driving economic behaviors which bring devastating environmental consequences). [**Sharks and rays numbers are down 70% in last 50 years and 1 in 3 species now face extinction.**](https://www.marineconservation.org.au/save-our-sharks/?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=A%20'fins%20on'%20rule%2C,before%20their%20fins%20are%20harvested.)
As apex predators, sharks are critical for maintaining balance in the ocean ecosystem; their extinction or reduced numbers [disrupt species below them in the food chain by allowing other predators to proliferate and devour more of the fish humans rely on for food](https://www.fishersci.com/us/en/scientific-products/publications/online-exclusives/sharks-disappearing-the-fight-survival.html?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=Without%20sharks%20as%20apex%20predators,seagrass%20and%20coral%20reef%20habitats.) and [negatively impact coral reef and seagrass habitats](https://europe.oceana.org/importance-sharks-0/?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=The%20loss%20of%20sharks%20has,and%20feed%20on%20the%20herbivores.).
---
### Great Juneteenth Read
Back in June 2020, (Juneteenth [became a federal holiday in 2021](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/juneteenth-name-origin-story-behind-holiday-title/?ref=s3t.org)), Annette Gordon-Reed shared [this personal perspective on growing up in Texas, the first state to celebrate Juneteenth.](https://www.newyorker.com/culture/personal-history/growing-up-with-juneteenth?ref=s3t.org)
---
*Thank you for reading and sharing S3T. If you are enjoying S3T please give it a like or repost on LinkedIn or other platforms where you learn and share! This helps us with our mission of encouraging change leaders and innovators in their vital work.*
### 🫤Confused job data, complicated AI relations, how to thrive anyway
URL: https://www.s3t.org/june-14-2024/
Last updated: 2024-07-13T16:25:12.000Z
*Welcome to S3T, the essential newsletter, podcast, and learning platform for change leaders. Every week we review the top developments and insights you need to stay ahead of the curve, build your ethics & leadership skills, and drive intentional beneficial innovation.*
**🎧** [**Listen to this episode on the S3T Podcast**](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org) **\-** *Be sure to follow the S3T podcast so you never miss a show!*
## In this edition of S3T:
- 📈 **Mixed Job Figures:** Strong job growth with 272,000 new jobs in May, but 408,000 jobs lost, and unemployment rose to 4%.
- 💼 **Economic Health Debate:** Conflicting reports create confusion about the economy's health, with job openings at a 3-year low and inflation still a concern.
- 🔄 **Inflation Issues:** Cumulative inflation since 2021 is 19.3%, contrasting with the current official rate of 3.36%, raising questions about measurement methods.
- 🗳️ **Political Implications:** Democrats highlight job growth, while Republicans focus on inflation, affecting the 2024 election narrative.
- 📊 **Economic Data Challenges:** Calls for updated measurement methods and decentralized data analysis to improve the accuracy and meaning of economic reports.
- 🍏 **Apple Intelligence Unveiled:** Apple showcased its new AI, powered by Microsoft and OpenAI, at WWDC. It integrates seamlessly with Apple devices, with differentiated privacy.
- 🤖 **AI Talent War:** Big tech firms are poised for intense competition to recruit AI talent, especially from companies demonstrating proven AI value.
- 💼 **AI & Crypto Convergence:** Vitalik Buterin advocates for using AI in crypto protocol design to enhance security and efficiency, emphasizing AI’s potential for formal verification.
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed.*
## This week saw an interesting conversation about the confusing job figures...with big political implications for the US election
Quick recap of the most recent numbers:
- Last Friday saw a stronger than expected jobs report - [**272,000 new jobs added in May**](https://apnews.com/article/jobs-hiring-unemployment-economy-inflation-federal-reserve-d1d73005dbc40b081a555850a44e73d1?ref=s3t.org). Markets interpreted the numbers to mean no interest rate cuts this summer.
- At the same time the latest reports show [**408,000 jobs were lost in May.** ](https://www.federatedhermes.com/us/insights/article/labor-market-divergence.do?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=Unemployment%20rate%20rises%2C%20labor%20impairment,in%20the%20past%20six%20months.)
- **Unemployment** [**ticked up to 4.0%**](https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/06/10/workforce-analysis-may-2024?topic=covid-19-coronavirus-coverage&ref=s3t.org)**,** ending a 28 month streak when it was below 4%. Job openings are [now at a 3 year low](https://apnews.com/article/job-openings-unemployment-economy-inflation-interest-rates-81dae65f447ae75165b9eed8278cd424?ref=s3t.org).
### So is the economy healthy or not?
[Cumulative change in inflation since 2021 is 19.3%](https://www.axios.com/2024/05/26/inflation-definition-evolution-high-prices?utm%5Fsource=www.openingbelldailynews.com&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=economists-insist-inflation-is-cooling-americans-don-t-buy-it) \- meaning the prices people are paying are averaging about 20% higher than 3 years ago. That's a very different [inflation figure from the official current claim of 3.36%](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us%5Finflation%5Frate?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=Basic%20Info,long%20term%20average%20of%203.28%25.)
[Economist Anna Wong](https://twitter.com/AnnaEconomist?ref=s3t.org) says **the Fed needs to fix its measurement methods**, and argues that job growth is being overstated by about a million jobs a year. [Summary here](https://www.inc.com/phil-rosen/-economic-outlook-investors-markets-jobs-labor-employment-consumers-fed-rates.html?ref=s3t.org).
> Measurement issues of nonfarm payroll should rise onto the top of Fed's policy work agenda.
>
> For this May's nonfarm, we took a different approach to forecasting nonfarm payrolls, by forecasting both the "false" number, and the "true number" (the latter guided our unemployment… [pic.twitter.com/rquDC1SH7M](https://t.co/rquDC1SH7M?ref=s3t.org)
>
> — Anna Wong (@AnnaEconomist) [June 7, 2024](https://twitter.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1799070374518489096?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org)
Likewise, Mishtalk has a [technical deep dive here](https://mishtalk.com/economics/how-much-did-the-bls-birth-death-adjustment-pad-the-may-jobs-report/?ref=s3t.org) on how "birth-death" estimates (births and deaths of companies not people) tend to **skew job growth reports 2 directions depending on their timing**:
- Coming out of recessions BLS reports *understate* jobs growth
- Heading into recessions (when trends are weakening) the BLS reports *overstate* jobs growth. That appears to be what is happening now.
### Political implications
Going into the 2024 election, Democrats continue to tout strong economic figures as Republicans highlight inflation. Democrats have an unusually difficult tight rope walk - taking credit for post-pandemic recovery while not appearing out of touch with very real inflation concerns.
The details that need to be explained or else they will not matter to the average voter:
- The Fed and other agencies have outdated, kludged measurement methods that aren't meaningful.
- The Fed's interest rate hikes can't take credit for the easing of the specific form of inflation driven by pandemic era supply chain shocks - these were going to and did resolve on their own.
- The Fed's interest rate hikes made perennial inflation worse. Perennial inflation is the form of inflation driven by corporate pricing power and by regulatory monopolies (monopolies comprised of regulated industries and their regulators, which allow high prices to persist while blocking or hindering disruptive competitors who could lower prices, or improve value delivery).
- The Fed is supposed to be independent from any administration (and therefore the Biden administration isn't to blame per se for the Fed's actions).
In short, this fall's election could be a repeat of the "[It's the economy stupid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/It's%5Fthe%5Feconomy,%5Fstupid?ref=s3t.org)" dynamic that unseated George Bush Sr and help Bill Clinton win in 1992\. Personally, I don't think that an administration change solves the root problem: A new administration that focuses on tax cuts alone would be embraced by Wall St, even as it hollows out the economy and weakens the dollar's future even further. The problem to solve, as Anna Wong notes is to enable more meaningful economic measurements. Well, that's one of the problems to solve (there's a list).
### Connecting the dots: what is needed
I think what we are seeing here is the rise of decentralized data and analysis capabilities that make it easier to challenge the economic reporting from federal agencies or central banks. These incumbents have long standing methods that are often unclear, nuanced and in desperate need of modernization. The democratization of more modern data & analytics tools spawns debate and discussions that raise legitimate questions about of what these economic figures mean and how meaningful they really are.
Former BLS Commissioner William Beach points out from direct experience with the Current Population Survey (CPS) the [shrinking sample sizes and holes in the measurement process due to budgetary constraints](https://twitter.com/BeachWW453/status/1800175965286347193?ref=s3t.org) and modernization gaps. In other words, there is acknowledgement that the measurement processes need to be fixed.
---
### Apple Intelligence: ChatGPT with better privacy?
This week at Apple's World Wide Developers Conference (WWDC) [Apple unveiled "Apple Intelligence"](https://www.reuters.com/technology/ai-is-sole-focus-apples-annual-conference-2024-06-10/?ref=s3t.org) (technically Microsoft-powered OpenAI intelligence nicely integrated into Apple devices). You can use your iPad like a whiteboard to write out math problems and Apple Intelligence will write the answer just to the right of the equal sign. Awkwardly, Siri is still in the mix. Like we said, it's complicated.
Apple seeks to differentiate its version of AI via [a unique approach to strong privacy](https://www.apple.com/si/newsroom/2024/06/apple-extends-its-privacy-leadership-with-new-updates-across-its-platforms/?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=In%20those%20times%20when%20a,all%20while%20protecting%20user%20privacy.):
- When possible, Apple Intelligence processes your requests on your own device without collecting your data.
- If more computational power is needed, it uses Private Cloud Compute, a [cloud intelligence system designed for private AI processing](https://security.apple.com/blog/private-cloud-compute/?ref=s3t.org), which securely handles the task without storing or accessing your data.
- Private Cloud Compute servers use features like Secure Enclave and Secure Boot to enhance security, and their privacy is verified by independent experts.
Did this fly over the heads of Wall St traders? [Apple's stock (AAPL) fell 2% after the Apple Intelligence demo](https://www.investopedia.com/dow-jones-today-06102024-8660672?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=Apple's%20%28AAPL%29%20shares%20fell%20nearly,1%20stock%20split%20last%20Friday.). 🤷 …and the [next day Apple stock hit a new record](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/AAPL?%5F%5Fsource=applenews&par=applenews&ref=s3t.org).
### AI impact to Talent
Expect an [AI Talent War](https://www.economist.com/business/2024/06/08/the-war-for-ai-talent-is-heating-up?ref=s3t.org) between big tech firms. Those looking to fill gaps will attempt to steal from firms delivering proven value with AI.
### AI & Crypto Convergence: Vitalik Buterin calls for AI based verification
At the 2024 Hong Kong Web3 Carnival, Buterin, the co-founder of Ethereum shared a keynote on the need to push the envelop on crypto protocol design as crypto adoption and usage scales up, in order to enable security, efficiency and extended capabilities. [Full text of speech here](https://www.coinlive.com/news/vitalik-s-full-speech-at-the-hong-kong-web3-carnival-reaching?ref=s3t.org).
> "One interesting thing that I think is worth investigating in the future is using AI tools for formal verification...In 2019, no one thought that AI could make really beautiful pictures today. We've made a lot of progress, and we've seen AI do it. The question is, can we try to turn similar tools toward similar tasks. Like automatically generating mathematical proofs for complex statements in programs that span thousands of lines of code." -[Vitalik Buterin speech at Hong Kong Web3 Carnival](https://www.coinlive.com/news/vitalik-s-full-speech-at-the-hong-kong-web3-carnival-reaching?ref=s3t.org)
---
Photo by [Javier Allegue Barros](https://unsplash.com/@soymeraki?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## 🧭 Creating *achievement experiences* for your team: thrive in spite of what else is going on in the world
*For years, a key part of my work has* involved *coaching individuals and being a listener to help them think about and plan their career paths. What I see over and over again: people are hungry for achievement experiences. It turns out, there's a huge win-win for both company and talent, when leaders focus on creating achievement experiences tailored for each individual on the team.*
### [Learn this step by step framework for creating achievement experiences that empower your teams to create positive change and thrive in spite of whatever else is going on in the world.](https://www.s3t.org/achievement-experiences/)
---
## 🪜Top AI Learning Options for change leaders this week
### [S3T Panorama: Evolution of AI - with latest updates](https://www.s3t.org/s3t-panorama-ai/)
*Understanding the evolution of AI can safeguard against unwise decisions based on hype, and help identify best opportunities for investment. Panoramas take a specific sector or issue, provide a quick view of how we got here, the need-to-know points that are critical right now, and where we're headed.*
### [S3T Playbook: Shift to effective gatekeeping in the age of generative AI](https://www.s3t.org/genai-supervisory-workloads/)
*GenAI tools can produce in 1 hour more material, media, content, words and software code than a human could read, consume or review in a month. The world's supervisory workloads are about to explode and our staffing models are not ready. Organizational leaders and talent recruiters must navigate an unusual shift in the composition of the workforce, by focusing relentlessly on 4 key priorities.*
### [S3T Playbook: How to validate AI use cases](https://www.s3t.org/validating-ai-use-cases/)
*Unfortunately it's not always easy to identify actionable use cases for emerging technologies like AI. This playbook provides 8 crucial questions that will tell you whether and when an AI use case is worth pursuing.*
### [S3T Playbook: How to prevent and stop Zombie Projects (Gen AI or otherwise) from stealing your team's time and focus. ](https://www.s3t.org/stop-zombie-projects-from-s/)
*Zombie projects are ideas - usually involving new or emerging technology - that actually can't work because something fundational is missing or insufficient.*
---
*Thank you for reading and sharing S3T. If you are enjoying S3T please give it a like or repost on LinkedIn or other platforms where you learn and share! This helps us with our mission of encouraging change leaders and innovators in their vital work.*
### 🫖 Cure for the Common GenAI Hangover
URL: https://www.s3t.org/june-7-2024/
Last updated: 2024-07-13T16:25:27.000Z
## In this edition of S3T:
- **Special Feature: S3T Panorama: Evolution of AI.**
- 📉 **AI Hangover**: Most companies struggle to prove GenAI's consistent, reliable, and cost-effective usefulness, despite investor gains in key stocks.
- 🤖 **Tech Tensions**: Apple and Microsoft face challenges with OpenAI integration, causing strain and financial concerns over their AI relationship.
- 🔗 **Weakest Links in 21st Century Economy:** Change Healthcare's ransomware attack in February 2024 paralyzed medical billing across the industry. Now Synapse's bankruptcy led to the freezing of tens of thousands of business and personal banking accounts. Tech Intermediaries are the new weakest link.
- 🔐 **Zero Trust Security & Decentralized Architectures**: Zero trust models reduce cyber threats by not automatically trusting anything inside or outside the network perimeter. Distributing data or other assets across multiple nodes eliminates single points of failure, enhancing resilience and security.
- 🚀 **Risk Management Innovation**: Huma Finance is developing a decentralized risk management platform, bridging traditional finance with decentralized finance.
- 🎮 **Gaming Partnership**: ELLE and My Neighbor Alice celebrate over a year of partnership, overcoming challenges in decentralized gaming usability and adoption.
---
*Welcome to S3T, the essential newsletter, podcast, and learning platform for change leaders. Every week we review the top developments and insights you need to stay ahead of the curve, build your ethics & leadership skills, and drive intentional beneficial innovation.*
**🎧** [**Listen to this episode on the S3T Podcast**](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org) **\-** *Be sure to follow the S3T podcast so you never miss a show!*
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed.*
## Too Big to …be resilient
Intermediaries - companies that provide services to larger incumbent firms and industries - represent a new risk to the economy with 2 recent examples of how intermediaries can paralyze large sets of regulated companies, and impact their customers:
- **Feb 2024 -** Change Healthcare ransomware attack [paralyzes medical billing across the healthcare industry](https://hbr.org/2024/05/preventing-the-next-big-cyberattack-on-u-s-health-care?ref=s3t.org)
- **April 2024**\- the bankruptcy of Synapse a fintech intermediary [leads to the freezing of tens of thousands of business and personal banking accounts.](https://apnews.com/article/synapse-evolve-bank-fintech-accounts-frozen-07ecb45f807a8114cac7438e7a66b512?ref=s3t.org)
The recent incidents involving Change Healthcare's ransomware attack and Synapse's bankruptcy highlight the vulnerabilities associated with centralized intermediaries, and underscore the need for change leaders to understand zero trust decentralized architectures.
- Zero trust models operate on the principle of not automatically trusting anything inside or outside the network perimeter, reducing the attack surface for cyber threats.
- Decentralized architectures distribute data and services across multiple nodes, eliminating single points of failure and enhancing resilience.
These approaches can help organizations and economies mitigate risks associated with centralized intermediaries, ensuring greater security and continuity in the face of disruptions. Start by exploring the principles of [zero trust security](https://www.cisa.gov/zero-trust-maturity-model?ref=s3t.org) and the [pros and cons of decentralized architectures](https://engineering.princeton.edu/news/2023/05/01/aligning-benefits-decentralization?ref=s3t.org).
### Risk Management Innovation
Risk management is the substrate that the world's economy runs on, but it is not a widely understood or necessarily transparent field. But most of the large outcomes we all say we want to achieve - affordable healthcare, climate restoration, financial equality and security, economic growth, innovation - all are literally enabled or constrained by the way we manage risk.
So as change leaders we want to take notice when notable risk management and financial innovation attempts are made.
[Huma Finance](https://huma.finance/?ref=s3t.org) is building a next generation decentralized risk management platform - decentralized risk and lending solutions backed by income, receivables and automated risk underwriting.
Huma's approach recognizes the need to bridge the current finance world with the emerging decentralized finance world, which is still growing its capital and cashflow base. Would be qualified borrowers likely have more off-chain assets that could be used as collateral than on-chain asserts. For detailed documentation, see Huma Finance Protocol [white paper here](https://docs.huma.finance/?ref=s3t.org).
This is another interesting example of the experimentation happening at the intersection of risk management innovation, financial services and blockchain architectures.
### ELLE & My Neighbor Alice 1 Year On
It has been [just over a year since ELLE announced](https://nftnewstoday.com/2023/05/26/my-neighbor-alice-partners-with-elle/?ref=s3t.org) its [partnership with decentralized game My Neighbor Alice](https://www.myneighboralice.com/elle?ref=s3t.org) to deliver a gaming experience centered on "fashion, lifestyle and gaming". This week CoinmarketCap sat down for an [interview with Chief Product Officer Riccardo Sibani](https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/6660242c5b1f00784df1af91/?ref=s3t.org) for a look at the progress so far and what's next. The interview is a good index of the usability and adoption challenges that decentralized games are learning to overcome. **Success means playing the game "without realizing that a blockchain underlies it."**
[Partnerships - ELLE — My Neighbor AliceMy Neighbor Alice](https://www.myneighboralice.com/elle?ref=s3t.org)
---
### SNPad attempts AI-crypto disruption of TV advertising
When users install the free SNPad app on their smart TVs or mobile devices, the app seamlessly replaces TV commercials with personalized advertisements from its own network, without altering the live TV content. SNPad uses AI to detect when regular programming breaks for commercials. Users earn SNPAD crypto tokens for each ad they watch. [Deep dive on how SNPad works here](https://cryptoadventure.com/snpad-disrupts-the-billion-dollar-tv-advertising-industry-with-ai-powered-ad-replacement/?ref=s3t.org).
[SNPad Announces Uniswap Listing and Plans to Transform TV Advertising with AI-Powered PlatformSNPad is a groundbreaking advertising platform that seeks to revolutionize how people interact with TV commercials.Bucharest, Romania, June 04, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- SNPad, a new Web3 platform integrating AI and blockchain for personalized TV advertising, announced the upcoming listing of its SNPAD token on Uniswap on June 4, 2024 at 12:00 UTC. The event represents a significant milestone in the project’s ambitious roadmap and will enable it to raise liquidity for SNPAD token trading. SNPad iYahoo FinanceSNPad](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/snpad-announces-uniswap-listing-plans-120000349.html?guccounter=1&guce%5Freferrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce%5Freferrer%5Fsig=AQAAAM1RSv2PnEsIsYEyGpWsHy%5FAjGcl4onZVWeSqAtQKVFnGAufXjY9B9-guAjR9zdnviu-h8n2mA9SgFx0H8C0LKJ2SMVj4xrVa4PkR5OLr%5FtfL%5F3pWB23AOr81qz67NLonIlAUCy58-fHGTW%5F-aPBYYtT1gTCtg0v-Jua-WkhU-bi&ref=s3t.org)
---
Photo by [Nancy](https://unsplash.com/@nancc123456?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Your GenAI Hangover Kit: find the "boring useful stuff"
In January the Wall St Journal suggested that an [AI Hangover might just be getting started](https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/techs-ai-hangover-might-just-be-getting-started-e81ca9f9?ref=s3t.org), and that turned out to be prescient. Investors in a few key stocks saw big gains, but most of the companies actually attempting to get business value from GenAI are struggling to prove that it can do something useful in a reliable consistent manner, that is better and more cost effective than alternatives.
**The elusive trifecta:**
- Do something useful
- Do it correctly in a consistent reliable manner
- Do it better and more cost effectively than currently available alternatives.
Most use cases are doing 1 or 2, not all 3\. If you're feeling like "why can't we do something!" or "why is it taking so long" or "why is it so hard"...**you're not alone.**
### Maybe the biggest hangover of all ...
Apple and Microsoft are having 2nd thoughts after [reportedly entering into a troubled relationship](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/technology/tech-news/why-some-execs-at-apple-openai-and-microsoft-may-not-be-happy-with-sam-altmans-chatgpt-siri-deal/articleshow/110556711.cms?ref=s3t.org) brokered by OpenAI:
- Apple is embedding OpenAI capabilities [via RAG architecture](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40328927&ref=s3t.org) into its products apparently [against the wishes of its own AI team](https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2024/05/report-apple-and-openai-have-signed-a-deal-to-partner-on-ai/?ref=s3t.org).
- Microsoft meanwhile worries that the deal - which apparently happened without their involvement - guarantees that [Apple's user base will put a strain on its servers](https://www.computerworld.com/article/2132288/microsoft-reportedly-unhappy-about-apples-openai-iphone.html?ref=s3t.org).
Microsoft is in deep - [the firm is apparently responsible for almost 20% of NVIDIAs revenues](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/single-customer-made-19-nvidias-143533924.html?ref=s3t.org), has [put $13B into OpenAI](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/08/microsofts-complex-bet-on-openai-brings-potential-and-uncertainty.html?ref=s3t.org), and to make matters worse, [has a cap on what it can recoup on its OpenAI investment](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/08/microsofts-complex-bet-on-openai-brings-potential-and-uncertainty.html?ref=s3t.org).
### Boring but Useful
Away from the hype and high stakes headlines, a diverse set of advanced analytics approaches are quietly finding ways to deliver value. For example [LORIS is a logistic regression algorithm](https://www.nature.com/articles/s43018-024-00772-7?utm%5Fsource=www.superhuman.ai&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=how-ai-is-helping-personalize-medical-care) that consistently predicts how well patients will respond to immunotherapy - a treatment that [leverages a person's own immune system to fight cancer](https://www.cancer.org/cancer/managing-cancer/treatment-types/immunotherapy.html?ref=s3t.org). You can [try it out for yourself online here](https://loris.ccr.cancer.gov/?ref=s3t.org).
**Beyond niche applications, one trend is expected to strengthen: Large Language Models trained on domain data** \- that is industry specific data held by individual companies or consortiums. This class of data is largely out of reach of companies like OpenAI, since they lack access and/or the legal basis to be able to use it. In the US, data deemed to be PHI has specific limitations on who can access or use it, and what specifically they can use it for. For the top engineers in these fields, training LLMs on domain specific data is a no-brainer and the GenAI craze is basically just a distraction.
### Here's hoping
None of this means there won't be any value in Gen AI. GenAI appears to be on track to disrupt search, traditional chatbots, and perhaps [as Joe Procopio notes, the Software as a Service business](https://www.inc.com/joe-procopio/openai-is-building-her-big-tech-is-still-defending-saas-canned-reports.html?ref=s3t.org).
> **"GenAI exposes SaaS as just a clunky middleman between you and your data: Developers of software and apps will no longer be able to get away with just barfing out aggregated and summarized data back to the user for them to make their own business decisions."** [**Joe Procopio**](https://www.inc.com/joe-procopio/openai-is-building-her-big-tech-is-still-defending-saas-canned-reports.html?ref=s3t.org)
###
---
## Continued Learning:
### [S3T Panorama: The Evolution of AI](https://www.s3t.org/s3t-panorama-ai/)
*This Panorama provides a wider perspective on the evolution of AI that can help ground decision-makers with an objective understanding of the capabilities and realistically what they can be used for.*
### S3T Playbooks
### [S3T Playbook: How to evaluate AI Use Cases](https://www.s3t.org/validating-ai-use-cases/).
*Learn to use 8 overlooked questions that can determine whether a GenAI use case is actionable or not. In the dynamic world of Gen AI, the ability to identifying legitimate and actionable use cases is becoming new crucial skillset for leaders.*
### [S3T Playbook: Developing and Maintaining an Independent Understanding of Modern Technology ](https://www.s3t.org/s3t-playbook-developing-and-maintaining-an-independent-understanding-of-modern-technology/)
*Developing your own independent understanding of the ongoing evolution of technology can protect you and your team from unwise hype-driven decisions and investments.* *Understanding the evolving path of emerging tech can serve as a safeguard against the over hyped messaging that comes from industry press, vendor sales teams or strategy consultants that sell implementation services.*
---
*Thank you for reading and sharing S3T. If you are enjoying S3T please give it a like or repost on LinkedIn or other platforms where you learn and share! This helps us with our mission of encouraging change leaders and innovators in their vital work.*
Photo by [Bailey Zindel](https://unsplash.com/@baileyzindel?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### 📬Global Shipping Risks UP, Consumer Sentiment DOWN
URL: https://www.s3t.org/may-31-2024/
Last updated: 2024-07-13T16:25:43.000Z
*Welcome to S3T, the essential newsletter, podcast, and learning platform for change leaders. Every week we review the top developments and insights you need to stay ahead of the curve, build your ethics & leadership skills, and drive intentional beneficial innovation. Sign up today at www.s3t.org!*
## Sign up for S3T
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## In this edition of S3T:
- 🚢 **Shipping Costs and Emissions Soar**: Black Swan events are increasing shipping costs and emissions, likely driving inflation higher in the second half of 2024.
- 📈 **Persistent Inflation and Interest Rates**: Hopes for interest rate cuts in 2024 are fading, causing continued financial strain from high borrowing costs and unmeasured inflation.
- 🏦 **Big Tech and Economic Stagnation**: Trust in tech innovation is waning, with claims that Big Tech's monopolistic grip creates more problems than solutions, stifling innovation and economic growth.
- 📚 **Book Highlight**: Ruchir Sharma's "*What Went Wrong With Capitalism*" discusses the stagnation in US industries, the need for innovation, and the shortcomings of current economic policies.
- 🌍 **Global Crypto Innovation**: Crypto adoption outside the US is driving significant innovation, especially in Latin America and the Caribbean.
- 💳 **MasterCard's New Crypto Network**: MasterCard launches a new Crypto Network to facilitate cross-border payments using blockchain technology.
- ♿ **Change Leadership in Action**: Delta Flight Products introduces new cabin designs to accommodate wheelchair-dependent passengers, marking significant progress in airline accessibility.
**🎧** [**Listen to this episode on the S3T Podcast**](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org) **\-** *Be sure to follow the S3T podcast so you never miss a show!*
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed.*
Photo by [Eilis Garvey](https://unsplash.com/@eilisgarvey?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Global Shipping Risks UP, Consumer Sentiment DOWN
The latest [University of Michigan Consumer Survey showed consumer confidence fell 10% in May](https://news.umich.edu/sentiment-falls-amid-concerns-that-labor-markets-may-weaken/?ref=s3t.org) amid concerns about inflation and unemployment.
- Severe credit card delinquencies - credit card debt more than 90 days overdue - [rose to a 14 year high](https://apnews.com/article/off-charts-credit-card-delinquencies-1eb685347b091ff53361e141d80405ad?ref=s3t.org). Younger borrowers are hardest hit.
- [Shipping industry Emissions and Costs are being driven up](https://www.xeneta.com/blog/q1-24-cei-round-up-part-2-no-carrier-is-immune-from-the-impact-of-red-sea-conflict-on-carbon-emissions?ref=s3t.org) by a mix of Black Swan events, threatening to drive inflation higher in the 2nd half of 2024\.
- [Hopes for interest rate cuts in 2024 seem to be fading](https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2024-05-29/inflation-pressures-lingering-from-pandemic-are-keeping-fed-rate-cuts-on-pause?ref=s3t.org) \- meaning people will continue to suffer from higher borrowing and credit costs in additional to the kinds of perennial inflation that the Fed doesn't measure (and that interest rates don't influence).
As detailed in previous editions of S3T, there is a big difference between the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation (aka the inflation rates reported) vs the perennial inflation that everyday families experience.
### The whole point of measuring inflation was to ensure things are affordable.
Ultimately to maintain a stable prosperous society, you must ensure a level of common financial stability or else there will be increasing unrest and instability.
Inflation has fallen from 7.1% in 2022 to 2.7% this past March, but things feel less affordable than ever. This should tell us that our way of measuring inflation is broken.
**Affordability indexes that tracks the actual buying power of different levels of income do a better job of measuring the financial stress of wage earners,** and the kinds of voter frustration for example that led to the "surprise results" of the 2016 election.
### How we got here
Ruchir Sharma's new book "[*What Went Wrong With Capitalism*](https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/What-Went-Wrong-with-Capitalism/Ruchir-Sharma/9781668008263?ref=s3t.org)" offers a [compelling diagnosis of how policymakers on both sides of the political divide have lost their way](https://www.ft.com/content/7650d057-be19-45ce-9a4e-b5ac0418d5c4?ref=s3t.org), engineering the conditions that set up the pervasive inflation impacting Americans today and stifling meaningful innovation. Key takeaways:
- "Three of every four US industries have ossified" into entities that "prosper by lobbying regulators and killing off competitors, not by innovating."
- Smaller newer innovators need a playing field that offers them a credible chance to "challenge - creatively destroy - old concentrations of wealth and power."
- "Today’s policymakers are status quoists, indulging the same old impulse to rescue, regulate and spend" which gets us "gravy days for markets and billionaires, not society as a whole."
Sharma argues that Biden's spending and Trump's tax cuts are really two versions of the same "suite of habits - borrow, bail out, regulate, stimulate" that provides the most help to the financial oligopolies closest to the money spigot.
---
## Big Tech Kraken
### Trust Barometer 2024 - global sentiment that tech innovation is mismanaged and out of control.
The [Edelman 2024 Trust Barometer](https://www.edelman.com/trust/2024/trust-barometer?ref=s3t.org) \- a yearly survey of what people trust/mistrust around the world, discovers this year that people are **losing trust in innovation.** Summary at the link above, [full 88 page report (PDF) here](https://www.edelman.com/sites/g/files/aatuss191/files/2024-02/2024%20Edelman%20Trust%20Barometer%20Global%20Report%5FFINAL.pdf?ref=s3t.org).
Instead of creating beneficial solutions, the kinds of tech advancements produced by Big Tech in recent decades seem to have [created large intractable problems](https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/04/04/big-tech-digital-trade-regulation/?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=Platforms%20like%20Google%2C%20Facebook%2C%20and,fore%20of%20the%20policy%20debate.) kept in place by [Big Tech's beyond-monopolistic grip on every aspect of the modern economy](https://www.chicagobooth.edu/review/if-big-tech-is-problem-whats-solution?ref=s3t.org).
### GenAI expectations about productivity gains are exaggerated; focus on getting up the learning curve
MIT Economics Professor [Daron Acemoglu does the math on how GenAI might boost productivity over the next 10 years](https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/ai-productivity-boom-forecasts-countered-by-theory-and-data-by-daron-acemoglu-2024-05?ref=s3t.org). **It's a lot lower than the consultants are claiming**. Acemoglu's approach:
- considers latest research on how tasks are streamlined or automated by AI,
- compares against gains made by other technologies like robotics,
- calculates a total factor productivity (TFP) per [Hulten's Theorem](https://www.jstor.org/stable/2297252?ref=s3t.org).
One factor Acemoglu identifies - that I believe will be a real Achilles heel: *many of the tasks that could be automated do not have "clearly defined objective measures of success, and often involve complex context-dependent variables."*
**Highly Recommended for more context:** [What we learned from a year of GenAI building with LLMs (O'Reilly)](https://www.oreilly.com/radar/what-we-learned-from-a-year-of-building-with-llms-part-i/?ref=s3t.org). Valuable lessons and tactics from real world trial and error of several current practitioners: how to evaluate and improve outputs, design human-in-the-loop flows, RAG and more.
### Big AI woos big publishers
A leaked presentation suggests [OpenAI is approaching publishers](https://www.adweek.com/media/openai-preferred-publisher-program-deck/?ref=s3t.org) with offers of preferred placement in ChatGPT outputs in exchange for agreement to use the publishers content.
- OpenAI would gain the ability to train on a publisher’s content and the license to display that information in ChatGPT products, complete with attribution and links.
- It would also get to announce the publisher as a preferred partner and work with them to build out these experiences.
Some are calling out the problematic nature of this proposal given the unclear legality of OpenAIs use of 3rd party content in its model training. Publishers might also need to consider how this impacts sales via other channels.
> *"We believe that people searching with AI models will be one of the fundamental ways that people navigate the web in the future.*" - [Nicholas Thompson, CEO, The Atlantic](https://www.axios.com/2024/05/29/atlantic-vox-media-openai-licensing-deal?ref=s3t.org)
The Atlantic magazine and Vox Media [reportedly both signed deals with OpenAI this week](https://www.axios.com/2024/05/29/atlantic-vox-media-openai-licensing-deal?ref=s3t.org). Last week Wall St Journal parent company [News Corp announced a deal with OpenAI](https://www.axios.com/2024/05/22/openai-news-corp-content-licensing-deal?ref=s3t.org).
---
### Crypto adoption outside US is driving innovation
[MasterCard announces a new Crypto Network to enable cross border payments](https://www.mastercard.com/news/press/2024/may/mastercard-crypto-credential-goes-live-with-first-peer-to-peer-pilot-transactions-adds-new-partners-to-the-ecosystem/?ref=s3t.org), noting that interest in blockchain as a financial settlement layer for cross border payments continues to be a priority for Latin America and the Caribbean in spite of negative sentiment in the US.
The immature/hostile regulatory environment in the US coincided with losses in the US's share of crypto talent. [72 percent of developers are now outside the US.](https://www.developerreport.com/developer-report?s=executive-summary&ref=s3t.org) The [recent passing of the FIT legislation](https://www.axios.com/2024/05/22/crypto-legislation-fit21-house-passes?ref=s3t.org) may signal a shift in tone in the US. The [Biden campaign has begun reaching out to the crypto industry](https://www.theblock.co/post/297504/biden-campaign-shifts-crypto-stance-engages-crypto-industry-presidential-elections-2024?ref=s3t.org).
---
## Change Leadership Case Study: Slow Progress on Accessibility
S3T readers will recall the interview with [Dan Dorszynski last May](https://www.s3t.org/flying-wheelchairs/) where he described the shameful status quo in how airlines handle passengers who depend on wheelchairs:
- Wheelchair dependent passengers like Dan are physically removed from their wheelchairs and forced to sit in airplane seats not designed to support them, which routinely subjects them to stress and injury.
- Their wheelchairs are stowed separately, then brought back to them at the end of the flight, frequently damaged.
If you haven't already, I encourage you to read or listen to [the interview, documented with photos by Michelle Tricca](https://www.s3t.org/flying-wheelchairs/).
Then, last June at the [Aircraft Interiors Expo](https://www.aircraftinteriorsexpo.com/?ref=s3t.org), Delta Flight Products exhibited the *first ever* working version of a seating configuration that [allows people who depend on wheelchairs to stay in their wheelchairs when they fly](https://deltatechops.com/delta-flight-products-to-feature-new-seat-prototype-for-passengers-with-reduced-mobility-at-2023-aircraft-interiors-expo/?ref=s3t.org). This brought renewed energy to the push for better treatment of wheelchair dependent passengers, and Delta was rumored to be targeting a 2025 timeframe for its first implementation.
This week, at the same annual [Aircraft Interiors Expo](https://www.aircraftinteriorsexpo.com/?ref=s3t.org), Delta Flight Products went a step further and presented **a new cabin design for onboard bathrooms that can accommodate passengers in wheelchairs.**
The breakthrough here is that this is the first time the industry has acknowledged that airline bathrooms are not sized for people who depend on wheelchairs. You may not realize this, but wheelchair dependent passengers routinely dehydrate themselves ahead of flights because they know they will not be able to use the facilities during their flight. Or it will be such a traumatic embarrassing ordeal, they'd just rather not. So this is good progress.
> “We look forward to seeing these products through their testing and certification phases, which will prepare them for aircraft identification & installation, resulting in a more seamless travel journey for the disability community.” - *Rick Salanitri, President, Delta Flight Products.*
When the first passenger flies in their own wheelchair, and is able to use the facilities on that same flight, this will be an incredible case study in change leadership - what it took to overcome the inertia of an industry, its lobbyists and regulators who all have been content turn a blind eye to needs and safety of passengers - and use regulatory compliance as an excuse.
This is a great time to take a moment to say thank you to the S3T Members who engage with airlines, government agencies and unions to advocate for basic courtesy and safety protocols for passengers who depend on wheelchairs. These efforts add momentum to the tireless grass roots effort by organizations like [Rights on Flights](https://rightsonflights.com/?ref=s3t.org) and [All Wheels Up](https://www.allwheelsup.org/?ref=s3t.org) and many others.
[S3T Sunday May 7 Special Edition: Flying Wheelchairs - a S3T Interview with Dan Dorszynski🔊 Listen to this interview on the S3T Podcast S3T is focused on developing the change leadership skills to notice what needs to be changed, and then work successfully to make that change happen! Today’s newsletter and podcast episode features a critical issue that demands change. We’ll be talking with someoneS3TRalph Perrine](https://www.s3t.org/flying-wheelchairs/)
### Let others know this is an important issue
I suggest sending a link to the podcast or newsletter website with a short thoughtful note explaining in your own words why this deserves more diligence and focus.
- Share this podcast (and newsletter) with your elected representatives.
- Forward the email newsletter edition of this interview (with Michelle Tricca's photographs) to your friends and family. Encourage them to spread the word.
- If you know someone who works at an airline, [airline workers union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Aviation%5Ftrade%5Funions?ref=s3t.org) or aircraft manufacturer, share this podcast and newsletter with them, along with a word of encouragement that you hope they'll solve this, and that you appreciate their focus on this issue.
- Follow @chairsintheair on Instagram
- Contact your airlines and tell them this issue is important to you
- Share a note or tweet of thanks to Boeing (@BoeingAirplanes on Twitter) for starting a study to allow people to stay in their own wheelchairs when they fly. Contact Airbus (@Airbus) and ask them if/when they are doing a similar study. Let them both know this matters.
### Get informed and connected
- DOT Secretary [Pete Buttigieg pressures on FAA and airlines to address wheelchair issue](https://www.travelweekly.com/Travel-News/Airline-News/Buttigieg-says-airlines-should-create-wheelchair-space-on-planes?ref=s3t.org).
- National Academies report says [most airplanes could allow passengers to remain in their own wheelchairs](https://www.nationalacademies.org/news/2021/09/most-airplanes-could-accommodate-people-to-travel-seated-in-a-personal-wheelchair-but-follow-on-safety-feasibility-assessments-needed?ref=s3t.org).
- WSU has designed a [cabin configuration that allows passengers to remain in their wheelchairs](https://www.wichita.edu/about/wsunews/news/2022/04-april/fly%5Fyour%5Fown%5Fwheels%5Fsuite%5F3.php?ref=s3t.org) while in flight.
- [Skift article on yet another configuration](https://skift.com/2021/04/08/new-wheelchair-prototype-seat-promises-accessibility-for-in-flight-travel/?ref=s3t.org) allowing passengers to fly in their own wheelchairs, with additional context on the different groups working to solve this. This article points out that the air industry and the FAA both have historically been unwilling to provide serious funding for studying this issue.
## Ways to increase your impact
### [Learn about narratives and how to change them.](https://www.s3t.org/changing-internal-and-macro-narratives/)
In the wheelchair policy scenario above - and other complex change leadership scenarios - narratives play a key role. For example, in this case the dominant narrative is "We can't afford to do the right thing for people who rely wheelchairs because regulations, profit margins, etc." That narrative is slowly being replaced with "Here's how we can and will do it." Click the link above to learn about replacing old narratives with new ones that mobilize people and drive momentum.
### [Take the Change Leadership Learning Path](https://www.s3t.org/change-leadership-learning-series/)
This learning series will take you through 3 tiers of lesson sets, starting with the basics of change leadership, then learning to apply change leadership skills at personal, org and macro levels, then learning more focused advanced skills for dealing with specific challenges - especially in large regulated industries or other complex scenarios. Click the link above or the panel below to start your journey.
[S3T Change Leadership Learning SeriesS3T equips you to make a difference.S3TRalph Perrine](https://www.s3t.org/change-leadership-learning-series/)
---
*Thank you for reading and sharing S3T. If you are enjoying S3T please give it a like or repost on LinkedIn or other platforms where you learn and share! This helps us with our mission of encouraging change leaders and innovators in their vital work.*
---
### 🍌S3T May 24 2024 - GenAI & the million monkeys problem + crypto's political breakthrough
URL: https://www.s3t.org/may-24-2024/
Last updated: 2024-05-24T05:28:39.000Z
*Happy Friday Everyone, and welcome back to the S3T newsletter and podcast for May 24 2024\. This week we are looking at changing sentiments in two key technologies: In the private sector, sentiment toward GenAI is increasingly negative, while in Washington, there are surprising shifts toward positive views of crypto.*
**In this edition of the S3T Podcast and Newsletter:**
- 🍌 **GenAI vs. The Million Monkeys Problem**: GenAI massively accelerates production but also creates a massive supervisory workload. This imbalance raises questions about its broad applicability.
- 🔥 **The Decline of GenAI Hype**: GenAI is now seen as one type of AI, not the future of AI. Its limitations and legal liabilities are becoming clear, prompting a shift to more reliable AI approaches.
- 🧟 **Stopping Zombie Projects**: Focus on eliminating unproductive projects to better allocate resources. Effective gatekeeping is essential in the age of generative AI.
- 📈 **Big Week for Crypto Politics**: Legislative progress supports the crypto industry's growth. Setbacks for the anti-crypto stance in Washington, DC highlight shifting political dynamics.
- 🐦 **Nature Notes: Merlin Bird ID**: The Merlin Bird ID app has a new user-friendly interface. It helps identify birds by their songs, available on iOS and Android.
**🎧** [**Listen to this episode on the S3T Podcast**](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org) **\-** *Be sure to follow the S3T podcast so you never miss a show!*
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed.*
---
## 🍌GenAI & The Million Monkeys Problem
*We are reaching an inflection point in our infatuation with GenAI: Investors, executives and IT leaders are asking should we cut our losses or keep trying to find a way to make it work?*
### Remember the old debate: a million monkeys + million typewriters + million years = decent novel?
Have you ever debated this with someone? I've debated people who were convinced that a novel was eventually inevitable with enough monkeys and enough time (I could never get there). But regardless of which side you come down on, the debate always misses some obvious practical questions:
- Who's paying for all the bananas?
- Supplying and maintaining the typewriters?
- Who's proofreading all those pages?
- And who seriously thinks this is the best way to write a novel?
You could boil these questions down into 2 problems to solve:
- Problem #1: How to handle the Production workload: supplying/maintaining a million typewriters & monkeys, feeding and taking care of them for an impossibly long time etc.
- Problem #2: How to handle the Resulting Output - ie the Supervisory workload: supervising the monkeys and proofreading their output and actually locating the novel in that mass of text.
**GenAI solved Problem #1 but made Problem #2 virtually impossible to solve.**
GenAI solves the million monkeys and million typewriters and removes the need for a million year wait time. But it leaves unsolved (and unsolveable?) another problem: The enormous and so far underestimated supervisory workload of GenAI has suddenly created an imbalance in our workforce. There aren't enough people to review and sanity check all of the output GenAI tools are capable of generating. And the rate of generation is only going to get faster.
This should prompt us to same question we should ask about the million monkey's scenario. Is this really the best way to produce a novel? or a drug design? or a medical recommendation? or a software application?
Photo by [Aditya Joshi](https://unsplash.com/@adijoshi11?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## GenAI increasingly seen as *a flavor* of AI not *the future* of AI
Gen AI hype is dying down. This doesn’t mean that there are no use cases out there. But it does mean - hopefully - we're done with the delusion that GenAI was a silver bullet for business value. Many are realizing its limitations.
- Metas AI Chief Yann Lecun says LLMs are [incapable of required levels of reasoning and planning](https://www.ft.com/content/23fab126-f1d3-4add-a457-207a25730ad9?ref=s3t.org) for reliably safe AI - is moving on to other approaches.
- The legal liabilities implicit in GenAI - owing to the limited transparency of OpenAI and other the GenAI developers - continue to surface. [Microsoft could be fined 1% of its annual income over Bing AI](https://www.reuters.com/technology/eu-demands-clarity-microsoft-ai-risks-bing-2024-05-17/?ref=s3t.org).
- Clinicians and others in industries where context and accuracy matters are also ready to move on. See [Graham Walker's corrections to Google's "AI Overview" of causes of abdominal pain](https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7197952854299451393/?ref=s3t.org) (screenshot below):
This flavor of AI is going to take its place alongside the others as we mature our ability to select the right approach for the specific use case, vs. thinking all use cases must be solved by one approach.
### So here to remind us to keep things in perspective is a short poem written by - who else, ChatGPT:
**The AI Spice Rack**
*Generative AI, oh what a spice!*
*It’s like cinnamon, quite nice.*
*But not every dish needs a cinnamon stick;*
*Some recipes call for a different trick.*
*In our vast tech pantry, take a peek*
*At AI flavors unique and chic.*
*Domain-specific, sharp and strong,*
*They’re the right salt where cinnamon’s wrong.*
*So mix and match with savvy and flair,*
*Each AI tool has its own affair.*
*Find the perfect blend, the ideal mix,*
*For tech solutions that truly fix!*
And there you have it everyone, spicy advice for your AI Strategy 😸 and a reminder that - if it's wordplay you're after, GenAI is awesome! But if it's safe medications, load-bearing engineering, secure software or other things that can't fail, then you may need a little something more.
Photo by [Tom Hermans](https://unsplash.com/@tomhermans?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
---
## For Full Access Members:
### 🧟[How to stop GenAI (and other) Zombie Projects from distracting your focus and resources](https://www.s3t.org/stop-zombie-projects-from-s/)
Understanding how to identify and stop zombie projects will help you focus budget and resources on initiatives that will bring the best ROI.
### ✅ [Shift to effective gatekeeping in the age of generative AI](https://www.s3t.org/genai-supervisory-workloads/)
Organizational leaders and talent recruiters must navigate an unusual shift in the composition of the workforce, by focusing relentlessly on 4 key priorities.
*(For more great learning click the Member portal link at the top of the page).*
Photo by [Samuel Schroth](https://unsplash.com/@sammy?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Big Week for Crypto Politics
Three days and three big setbacks for the anti-crypto base in Washington DC this week:
- On Tuesday FDIC chair Martin Gruenberg resigned under pressure from Congress over rampant culture issues within the FDIC organization. Not lost on the crypto community was Gruenberg's alleged role in [Operation Chokepoint 2.0](https://cointelegraph.com/news/nothing-is-a-coincidence-with-the-government-claims-us-lawmaker-on-operation-choke-point-2-0?ref=s3t.org) an attempt to block the crypto community's access to banking services (so named after an earlier alleged "chokepoint operation" aimed at other businesses). This [Jan 2023 example of bank guidance](https://www.fdic.gov/sites/default/files/2024-03/pr23002a.pdf?ref=s3t.org) (PDF) - while illustrating cross agency collaboration - unfortunately also showed a lack of understanding of how crypto works.
- Then on Wednesday, [the House passed the FIT Bill](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/05/22/us-house-approves-crypto-fit21-bill-with-wave-of-democratic-support/amp/?ref=s3t.org) \- the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act with significant numbers of bi-partisan support. 71 Democrats broke rank with the Elizabeth Warren / Gary Gensler anti-crypto stance to support the digital assets legislation.
- Finally on Thursday the SEC [granted approvals to Nasdaq, NYSE and CBOE](https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-sec-approves-exchange-applications-list-spot-ether-etfs-2024-05-23/?ref=s3t.org) to allowing them to list ETFs tied to Ethereum. This follows the similar approval for Bitcoin earlier this year. Additional paperwork (S-1 statements) still need to be done before live trading can begin but analysts expect this can be done in the next 2-12 weeks.
If you've been a reader of S3T you've known about the unfortunate anti-crypto bias in Washington over the past few years, and are probably happy to see some constructive bi-partisan legislation going forward to enable regulatory clarity for this crucial emerging industry.
### A brief history of what's been in play:
- Early on, a faction of well-meaning Democrat leadership had - in my view - misread crypto as a just another casino for Wall St big boys rather than seeing it as new set of building blocks that in the right hands could create a more equitable, efficient, and transparent financial ecosystem than traditional finance ever did.
- This lack of clarity at the Congressional level allowed a SEC-CFTC turf-war over who would get to regulate crypto. This political food fight appears to have been won by SEC Chair Gary Gensler via his shock-and-awe campaign of enforcement actions against crypto companies. These were consistently protested by Gensler's own team, and the courts consistently disagreed with Gensler's logic. Simultaneously, the SEC was cozily ideating future crypto regulation with the one entity that turned out to be the biggest scam of them all: FTX.
- In the process this well meaning group of federal finance stakeholders played into the hands of the very group they hoped to constrain: traditional finance (aka "TradFi) which harbors deep fears about crypto's ability to unseat their parasitic intermediation of finance (high fees, low yields for banking customers, discriminatory lending, etc). All of which makes for a text book lesson in how regulatory capture sneaks up on even the most wary regulators.
As noted in the S3T newsletter of Dec 29 2023, the Democrats have been in danger of coming down on the wrong side of the crypto debate and handing Republicans a block of voters that could decide the election (Speaking here as a left leaning member of a diverse family which spans the political spectrum). Now with the election just 5 months away, the Democrats appear to be recalibrating their positions. Is it too little too late?
---
## Other Economic News
###
Easier borrowing conditions for companies
The Chicago Fed’s [National Financial Conditions index](https://www.chicagofed.org/research/data/nfci/current-data?ref=s3t.org) has fallen to a 2 year low - which ostensibly means it is getting easier for companies with good credit to borrow money.
### Tougher market conditions for talent
[CIO State of IT Jobs May 17, 2024](https://www.cio.com/article/2100525/state-of-it-jobs-mixed-signals-changes-ahead.html?ref=s3t.org) \- IT workers having a challenging year so far:
- 48% of tech workers are experiencing feelings of burnout
- 60% will likely switch jobs within the year
- 63% want remote work (42% percent of return-to-office hardliners have lost staff, 50% have lost preferred candidates)
- 69% of CIOs will upskill / reskill current staff, as companies across the board struggle to find relevant AI talent.
**New college grads also face challenges:** the [job market for new college grads is down almost 6%](https://www.naceweb.org/about-us/press/f6b6c628-2607-4cbe-85dc-1e7bab489c1a?ref=s3t.org) compare to last year.
[](https://ghost.org/help/using-the-editor/?ref=s3t.org)
---
Photo by [Jack Bulmer](https://unsplash.com/@jackbulmer?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Nature Notes
### Merlin Bird ID
Merlin - the bird identification app that can tell you what bird you're hearing - has gotten a really nice makeover. The new simplified interface lets you turn on the "listen mode" faster.
[Download Merlin Bird ID for iOS and AndroidApple Merlin runs on iPhones and iPads with iOS 16 or newer, and M1/M2-equipped Apple computers. To download, click on the button below or search the App Store for “Merlin Bird ID.” Android Merlin runs on devices with Android 6 or newer. To download, click on the butMerlin Bird ID - Free, instant bird identification help and guide for thousands of birds](https://merlin.allaboutbirds.org/download/?ref=s3t.org)
### About them Cicadas
There are [190 species of cicada in North America](https://www.in.gov/dnr/entomology/nursery-growers-and-dealers/periodical-cicada/?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=There%20are%20over%203%2C000%20different,bugs%20in%20the%20order%20Hemiptera.) (and about 3000 species worldwide). Here is a [photo guide to about 70 of them](https://songsofinsects.com/cicadas?ref=s3t.org) with recordings of their specific songs.
---
*Have a great weekend and a great week ahead!*
*S3T is the essential newsletter, podcast, and learning platform for change leaders. Learn with me Ralph Perrine every week as we review the top developments and insights you need to stay ahead of the curve, build your ethics & leadership skills, and drive intentional beneficial innovation. Sign up today at WWW.S3T.ORG!*
###
###
### 📈 S3T May 17, 2024 - Market ATHs don't match reality, GenAI prompting goes next level, 25M Eth hack, Pricing Power, Perennial Inflation
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-may-17-2024/
Last updated: 2024-06-07T03:20:22.000Z
---
*S3T is the essential newsletter, podcast, and learning platform for change leaders. Every week we review the top developments and insights you need to stay ahead of the curve, build your ethics & leadership skills, and drive intentional beneficial innovation.*
---
**🎧** [**Listen to this episode on the S3T Podcast**](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org) **\-** *Be sure to follow the S3T podcast so you never miss a show!*
## In this edition of S3T:
- 📈 **Markets Surge on Inflation News**: A 0.1% drop in inflation sparks a bull run, with traders optimistic about potential interest rate cuts.
- 📉 **Contrasting Realities**: Concerns remain with predictions of more inflation, declining office space, and financial struggles for Amazon workers.
- 🏠 **Real Estate Woes**: Issues of affordability and racial bias persist, while real estate TV glamorizes the market.
- 🧠 **AI Innovations**: OpenAI's GPT-4o and Google's Project Astra introduce advanced multimodal AI capabilities, changing how we interact with technology.
- 🌍 **Climate Change and AI**: Researchers explore AI to combat drug-resistant pathogens accelerated by climate change.
- 📊 **Corporate Pricing Power and Inflation**: Understanding how companies' ability to raise prices without losing customers contributes to perennial inflation and challenges affordability, highlighting the need for leaders to align their actions with their commitments to financial equality.
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed.*
## 0.1% Drop in Inflation Sparks ATHs
Markets [hit new all time highs this week](https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-futures-hold-near-highs-ahead-of-cpi-data?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=All%20three%20major%20U.S.%20stock,highs%20on%20the%20same%20day.) as the headline inflation rate fell to 3.4% in April (from 3.5% in March - doesn't take much to get this market excited). Traders assume this means interest rates will come down and everything will be fine. Meanwhile, back in reality:
- JPMorgan chief Jamie Dimon [worries there's more inflation on the way](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-16/jamie-dimon-sees-a-lot-of-inflationary-forces-in-front-of-us?ref=s3t.org).
- [Manulife sees a 40% decline](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-20/manulife-faces-40-decline-in-us-office-investments-from-peak?ref=s3t.org) in US office space, and [Starwood's REIT heads for insolvency](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/starwoods-property-fund-taps-credit-120646526.html?ref=s3t.org) as investors continue to pull their funds out. Just more signs the return to office campaign isn't saving commercial real estate - in spite of local governments [offering incentives to corporations](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-02-21/tax-breaks-threaten-work-from-home-as-ceo-s-get-return-to-office-incentives?ref=s3t.org).
- Amazon warehouse workers still struggle to afford the basics, 5 years after Amazon raised wages to $15hr, [per this new study by the University of Illinois CEUD](https://cued.uic.edu/news-stories/handling-hardship/?ref=s3t.org).
- Debra Kamin who uncovered widespread [racial bias in the real estate appraisals](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/02/realestate/racial-bias-home-appraisals.html?ref=s3t.org), notes in her latest piece [*Real Estate Fantasies*](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/28/briefing/celebrity-real-estate-agents-selling-sunset.html?ref=s3t.org) that just at a time when housing affordability is at its worst, people are being lured into the dream world of real estate TV.
To understand the paradox of euphoria and gloom, see the special Change Leadership feature below explaining headline vs perennial inflation, and how pricing power contributes to **perennial inflation.**
---
## GPT-4o will change the nature of prompting
On May 13, [OpenAI rolled out GPT-4o](https://openai.com/index/hello-gpt-4o/?ref=s3t.org) (the letter "o" for "omni"). The new model can converse using speech, emotional cues and visual inputs - processing real time audio, vision and text via one neural network, for example:
- use a phone's camera to read a math problem on a piece of paper, then tutor a person through the steps to solve the problem.
- read code and then talk a person through what it does.
To see examples, go to the [OpenAI Spring Update video on this page](https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2024/05/chatgpt-4o-lets-you-have-real-time-audio-video-conversations-with-emotional-chatbot/?ref=s3t.org)...the math problem starts about 13:30, the code review starts around 18:00\.
A Macbook desktop version is promised, as of May 16 [it was not yet on the Apple Store - but a lot of copycats were](https://indianexpress.com/article/technology/tech-news-technology/chatgpt-macos-desktop-app-9328990/?ref=s3t.org). But you can start using GPT-4o in ChatGPT now.
### Google Project Astra
Google also announced a multimodal AI assistant - something it calls Project Astra. See videos with [examples of Astra on the announcement page](https://deepmind.google/technologies/gemini/project-astra/?ref=s3t.org). Google says "some of these capabilities are coming to Google products, like the Gemini app and web experience, later this year."
---
### ☣️ Climate change is accelerating the spread of drug-resistant pathogens - can AI help?
🌡️ Climate change with its increasing rates of flooding and warmer temperatures will [encourage the spread of drug resistant infections even further](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-04077-0?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=Climate%20change%20has%20led%20to,and%20drinking%20water%2C%20she%20adds.). This has prompted researchers [to look for ways to apply AI to this problem space](https://mmrjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40779-024-00510-1?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=AI%20technology%20constitutes%20a%20powerful,identify%20resistant%20bacteria%20%5B77%5D.). Governments and global policy makers [should get ready for drug resistance outbreaks](https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/climate-change-will-fuel-antimicrobial-drug-resistance-by-manica-balasegaram-2024-05?a%5Fla=english&a%5Fd=663348ad7c15557cd6899ecf&a%5Fm=&a%5Fa=click&a%5Fs=&a%5Fp=homepage&a%5Fli=climate-change-will-fuel-antimicrobial-drug-resistance-by-manica-balasegaram-2024-05&a%5Fpa=curated&a%5Fps=main-article-a3&a%5Fms=&a%5Fr=&ref=s3t.org) as global temperatures rise. Recognize the connection, invest in research that proves out feasible options for prevention and management.
---
Photo by [Shubham Dhage](https://unsplash.com/@theshubhamdhage?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## 🔦 The $25M Ethereum Hack puts MEV in the spotlight
In 2022, two brothers took advantage of a flaw in open source trading bots and tricked them (and traders) into actions that netted the brothers $25M in less than 15 seconds. This week the Justice Dept. [announced charges against the brothers and released a statement](https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/two-brothers-arrested-attacking-ethereum-blockchain-and-stealing-25-million?ref=s3t.org) along with the [formal indictment](https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/media/1351931/dl?ref=s3t.org) (PDF) which provided technical details on the exploit.
Coindesk reached out to the Ethereum community and got these insights on [what exactly this means for Ethereum and crypto security](https://www.coindesk.com/opinion/2024/05/15/what-the-dojs-first-mev-lawsuit-means-for-ethereum/?ref=s3t.org).
### Takeaways for security and compliance leaders
- Don't interpret this as an issue with Ethereum's security - this is more about an arcane aspect of blockchain settlement: the Maximum Extractable Value (MEV) that miners/validators use to maximize their profits. The practice has been controversial but tolerated since the amounts extracted are usually small. [Explainer here](https://www.ledger.com/academy/glossary/maximal-extractable-value-mev?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=Originally%20called%20miner%20extractable%20value,during%20the%20block%20creation%20process.).
- This exploit was possible because of a flaw in an open source bot. Open source is awesome, but if you're running it as part of a platform that handles money or impactful decisions, assume it has flaws that will be eventually exploited unless you take steps such as: limiting access, monitoring, and reviewing/certifying with extreme suspicion.
---
## Understanding the Challenges to Affordability: Headline vs perennial Inflation
*Most companies have a mission statement or policy stating their commitment to affordability and financial equality for their customers and for society as a whole. Yet few leaders have a clear understanding of how their decisions may be working in opposition to their stated aims.*
### Corporate pricing power is a key contributor to perennial inflation
Pricing power refers to a company's ability to raise prices without losing customers. While this can drive profitability, it often contributes to inflation and affordability issues. Understanding the different types of pricing power and their impact is crucial for leaders, especially in regulated industries.
In recent years, at long last, there has been a growing realization that [corporate profits are a primary driver of inflation today](https://s3t.ghost.io/ghost/?ref=s3t.org#/editor/post/663d86be389ea500013d2f65). So why have establishment economists had a long history of scapegoating wage earners rather than corporations? Because in the words of this economist: “[we don’t have as much and as good data on profit as we do on wages.](https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/sellers-inflation-diagnosis-accepted-but-old-interest-rate-policies-remain-by-isabella-m-weber-2023-07?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=This%20%E2%80%9Csellers'%20inflation%E2%80%9D%20happens,or%20enhance%20its%20profit%20margins.)”
### Types of Pricing Power
1. **Industry Monopolies**: These are the traditional monopolies we usually think about - railroads, energy companies, or other conglomerates that control or gatekeep large portions of the market, limiting competition and enabling price control.
2. **Branding Monopolies**: Companies like Apple and Microsoft may leverage strong brands to command higher prices. Customers perceive their products as superior, allowing these companies to maintain higher price points without significant loss in sales.
3. **Platform Monopolies**: Technology giants such as Amazon and Google create ecosystems that lock users into their platforms. This integrated environment makes it difficult for customers to switch to competitors, thus allowing these companies to increase prices with less concern about losing customers to lower priced competitors.
4. **Regulatory Monopolies**: This is the one that is too often overlooked. Regulatory monopolies occur when regulators and regulated companies over time evolve a complex set of regulations that make it difficult for more efficient innovators to enter the market, and that enable encumbents to justify bloated org and cost structures.
💰“Rising corporate profits were the largest contributor to Europe’s inflation over the past two years as companies increased prices by more than the spiking costs of imported energy.” - [Isabella M. Weber](https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/sellers-inflation-diagnosis-accepted-but-old-interest-rate-policies-remain-by-isabella-m-weber-2023-07?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=This%20%E2%80%9Csellers'%20inflation%E2%80%9D%20happens,or%20enhance%20its%20profit%20margins.)
### Regulatory Monopolies and Their Impact
Regulated industries, such as banking, healthcare, and utilities, often see regulatory bodies enforcing complex rules. This complexity acts as a barrier to entry for newer, potentially more efficient competitors. **When regulators and regulated entities develop a symbiotic relationship, it enables a regulatory monopoly that sustains high prices and inefficiencies.**
For instance, the interaction between the SEC and the cryptocurrency industry illustrates how regulators can hinder innovation. The SEC's stringent and often unclear regulations has created obstacles for new entrants, preserving the market dominance of traditional financial institutions.
### The Consequences of Regulatory Monopolies
1. **Increased Costs**: Regulatory compliance often requires significant resources, including extensive documentation and audits. These costs are passed on to consumers, contributing to higher prices.
2. **Barrier to Innovation**: New, efficient technologies and business models struggle to enter the market, stifling innovation and keeping prices high.
3. **Bureaucratic Growth**: Organizations in regulated industries tend to become bloated, as they absorb resources to comply with regulations. This leads to inefficiencies and higher operational costs.
**To be clear: the answer here is not to do away with regulations and accountability.** The answer is to find more efficient ways to be accountable and comply with the rules in a way that meaningfully benefits the customers and communities the regulations are suppose to protect, rather than simply benefitting process owners and their vendors.
### Call to Action for Leaders
To address these issues, leaders in regulated industries must recognize their role in maintaining high prices and consider steps to mitigate this:
1. **Streamline Compliance**: Work with regulators with a mindset that seeks ways to fulfill regulatory requirements more efficiently. This could involve leveraging technology to reduce paperwork and improve processes. It could also involve talking through the specific outcomes that regulations are supposed to achieve, then looking at the most cost effective ways to ensure those outcomes.
2. **Encourage Innovation**: Work with regulators to create environments that support new entrants and innovative solutions. This could involve pilot programs or phased compliance introductions.
3. **Foster Competition**: Embrace competition as a means to drive efficiency and lower prices. This benefits consumers and enhances the overall market.
4. **Engage with Regulators**: Advocate for smarter regulations that achieve their goals without imposing unnecessary burdens. Collaboration can lead to more effective and efficient regulatory frameworks.
### Summary
Most of us work with organizations who have mission statements that talk about benefits to customers, affordability, and equality. By recognizing the pricing power we have - especially if we are in a regulated industry - we can be on the lookout for cases where we are making decisions that oppose our stated mission.
Understanding and addressing the different types of pricing power, especially regulatory monopolies, is essential for tackling inflation and affordability issues. Leaders in regulated industries have a significant role in shaping a more competitive and efficient market. By streamlining compliance, encouraging innovation, fostering competition, and engaging with regulators, they can enhance customer loyalty, competitiveness, and their positive impact on communities.
### Further reading
- [Seller's Inflation](https://scholarworks.umass.edu/econ%5Fworkingpaper/343/?ref=s3t.org) University of Massachusetts Amherst study on what allows some firms to raise prices even in a time of crisis.
- McKinsey's [playbook on leveraging Pricing Power to increase margins](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/growth-marketing-and-sales/our-insights/five-fifty-passing-the-buck?ref=s3t.org)
---
*Thank you for reading and sharing S3T. If you are enjoying S3T please give it a like or repost on LinkedIn or other platforms where you learn and share! This helps us with our mission of encouraging change leaders and innovators in their vital work.*
### 🪷S3T May 10, 2024 - Telehealth, PE scrutiny, AI for Architecture, Gen AI Firewalls, Robot Skill Acquisition at Scale, Gen Z
URL: https://www.s3t.org/may-10-2024/
Last updated: 2024-05-10T02:59:52.000Z
**Happy Friday and welcome to the S3T newsletter and podcast for May 10** \- this week we are diving into some key developments in Healthcare Economics as well as addressing head on some misperceptions about Gen Z. As always we'll be looking at the latest in emerging tech and other need to know insights for Change Leaders.
Before we jump in:
**If you are enjoying the *S3T newsletter and podcast please* let one other person know what a great investment it has been for you, and *give it a like or repost on LinkedIn or other platforms where you learn and share! This helps us with our mission of encouraging change leaders and innovators in their vital work.***
**🎧** [**Listen to this episode on the S3T Podcast**](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org) **\-** *Be sure to follow the S3T podcast so you never miss a show!*
## In this edition of S3T:
- 🌐 **Telehealth Trends**: The American Telemedicine Association reports stable telemedicine adoption with varying rates across specialties. Mental health and endocrinology see higher telehealth usage compared to physical therapy and orthopedics. Major players like Walmart and United/Optum are exiting telehealth services, suggesting a shift towards specialty or hybrid services.
- 📉 **Digital Healthcare Funding**: After a peak in investment, digital healthcare funding is experiencing a downturn, with venture capital shifting focus towards advanced manufacturing sectors.
- 🏥 **Private Equity Scrutiny**: The U.S. Senate and federal agencies are investigating the impacts of private equity in healthcare, particularly the practices of overburdening hospitals with debt and reducing quality to profit investors.
- 🚀 **AI Advancements and GenAI Firewalls**: Innovations include using large language models (LLMs) for robotic skill acquisition and the introduction of GenAI firewalls like Galileo Protect to secure against AI vulnerabilities.
- 🌟 **Support for Gen Z**: Despite economic challenges, there's a call for better support systems for Gen Z, emphasizing the need for understanding and aiding their success in workplaces and communities.
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed.*
Photo by [Vitaly Taranov](https://unsplash.com/@gooner?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Healthcare economics
### Telehealth Consolidation
This week American Telemedicine Association convened their annual meeting - the group maintains that overall adoption of telemedicine is steady. [Recent research](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/379903452%5FA%5Fnarrative%5Freview%5Fof%5Ftelemedicine%5Fand%5Fits%5Fadoption%5Facross%5Fspecialties?ref=s3t.org) suggests that adoption varies by specialty depending whether how frequently the patient needs physical exams.
💡
"**...telemedicine consultations comprising 30.1% of all visits, but specialties like mental health, gastroenterology, and endocrinology showed higher rates of adoption compared to optometry, physical therapy, and orthopedic surgery...*"- [Telemedicine and its Adoption](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/379903452%5FA%5Fnarrative%5Freview%5Fof%5Ftelemedicine%5Fand%5Fits%5Fadoption%5Facross%5Fspecialties?ref=s3t.org)
Walmart [is shutting down its Telehealth service](https://www.techradar.com/pro/walmart-shuts-down-telehealth-service?ref=s3t.org), and [so is United/Optum](https://mhealthintelligence.com/news/report-unitedhealth-groups-optum-eliminates-virtual-care-service?ref=s3t.org). To thrive, industry voices say players in this space [must differentiate themselves with speciality services or hybrid virtual+in person offerings](https://medcitynews.com/2024/04/optum-virtual-care-telehealth/?ref=s3t.org). But note that [Walmart is shutting down both its virtual and its 51 in person locations](https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20240430142/walmart-shutting-down-health-centers-and-telehealth-service?ref=s3t.org).
### Digital Healthcare - still not the favorite anymore
Digital healthcare funding had a mild rebound in Q1, but [it’s still in the doldrums](https://www.cbinsights.com/research/report/digital-health-trends-q1-2024/?ref=s3t.org) after significant investments failed to bring the value promised.
VC's new darling: Funding is instead going to [advanced manufacturing](https://www.cbinsights.com/research/advanced-manufacturing-tech-trends-q1-2024/?ref=s3t.org).
### Private Equity in healthcare gets increased scrutiny
Last December, the Senate launched a bi-partisan investigation into the impact of [private equity ownership on America's hospitals](https://www.grassley.senate.gov/news/news-releases/senate-budget-committee-digs-into-impact-of-private-equity-ownership-in-americas-hospitals?ref=s3t.org), and specifically a pattern where "private equity buys out a hospital, saddles it with debt, and then reduces operating costs by cutting services and staff—all while investors pocket millions."
In February [Change Healthcare cyberattack and its paralyzing industry-wide impact](https://healthitsecurity.com/features/change-healthcare-cyberattack-exposes-key-cybersecurity-considerations?ref=s3t.org) offered a new angle on the same concerns: allowing merger and acquisition (M&A) to shuffle and trade healthcare infrastructure business units like baseball cards **increases the risk that cybersecurity will be compromised**.
Then in March the Federal Trade Commission, the Department of Justice and the Department of Health and Human Services [launched a joint inquiry](https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/news/press-releases/2024/03/federal-trade-commission-department-justice-department-health-human-services-launch-cross-government?ref=s3t.org) seeking information on the impact of private equity control over healthcare.
💡
“When private equity firms buy out healthcare facilities only to slash staffing and cut quality, patients lose out...Through this inquiry the FTC will continue scrutinizing private equity roll-ups, strip-and-flip tactics, and other financial plays that can enrich executives but leave the American public worse off.” - [FTC Chair Lina M. Khan](https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/news/press-releases/2024/03/federal-trade-commission-department-justice-department-health-human-services-launch-cross-government?ref=s3t.org)
California also took up legislation [AB-3129](https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill%5Fid=202320240AB3129&ref=s3t.org) that attempts to limit industry consolidation and limit the ability of private equity firms to have managerial authority over physician and psychiatric practices ([legal commentary here](https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/california-s-ab-3129-continues-national-9193383/?ref=s3t.org)).
Now the FTC, Dept of Justice, and Dept of Health and Human Services have launched a Health Care Reporting Portal [HealthyCompetition.gov](https://www.justice.gov/atr/HealthyCompetition?ref=s3t.org) where anyone can [report actions that are harming patients and or harming healthcare market competition](https://www.cbiz.com/insights/articles/article-details/federal-agencies-launch-health-care-reporting-portal?ref=s3t.org).
### Perspectives to balance
There's an old adage "if it's important, then you ought to run it like a business" and it has a certain appeal. Having a clear bottom line, being accountable, having a sense of urgency, being efficient...these are all characteristics that we have come to associate with *business*, in contrast with other less efficient entities like governments, non-profits, academic institutions.
So why not let a group of business people come in straighten things up?
Maybe it has to do with motives and goals. If your goal is achieve a healthy community with affordable, functional healthcare, and you want to "run it like a business" maybe that's a good thing. But if your goal is to fleece everything in sight, maybe you shouldn't be in healthcare.
Which brings us to the problem - certain types of investors are drawn to healthcare for the same reason pickpockets love to attend Mass: in both cases, you can make a killing off of people who are minding higher priorities.
For example, you'll notice that the private equity debate often mentions debt. What are they referring to? Well here's an analogy.
Let's suppose you are an Uber driver and you want to upgrade your car. Imagine that I offer to help. I take your credit card and use your credit card to buy your car from you. I pocket the money. Then I strip off a bunch of the parts from your car until it's unsafe and barely functional, and sell I them and keep the money. Then I turn around and lease your barely functional car back to *you* \- for a really steep price.
**This is what they call a "beautiful deal".**
And I challenge you, find anyone who's been on the receiving end of a private equity deal in healthcare and ask them if I'm exaggerating.
### Why are you here and what are you trying to do?
We always come back to the same key question: what is your intention? What will you do with the position, role and opportunities you have? To delve further into this check out the S3T learning guide titled "[Clarifying your Purpose](https://www.s3t.org/clarifying-your-purpose/)." This will guide you through a process of committing to a purpose driven career, and putting that commitment into action.
---
Photo by [Clay LeConey](https://unsplash.com/@clayleconey?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Have they've finally stopped trying to save commercial real estate?
Urban developers and their financiers may be throwing in the towel on the return-to-office influence campaign (its not great for retention, and its expensive) and instead have begun to focus on [converting unneeded office space into badly needed downtown *residential* space](https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2024/05/06/can-turning-office-towers-into-apartments-save-downtowns?ref=s3t.org).
Having affordable, functional living space (vs cramped and insanely expensive ones) in attractive downtown areas can over time reinvigorate the commercial real estate market - and in the process add fuel and talent to the [top startup hubs of the world](https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/pitchbook-global-vc-ecosystem-rankings?ref=s3t.org) (excellent ranking of top 50 - note the capital raised vs exit value columns)
Back in the 90's my wife and I enjoyed a chapter in our DC metro careers where we lived practically next door to our respective workplaces. We walked to work and often met for lunch - in contrast to our previous experiences spending 2+ hours a day commuting.
As noted in the Gen Z piece below, Affordable housing *especially near work places* can be highly beneficial and can reap long term dividends for municipalities that are wise enough to invest with this kind of foresight.
---
Photo by [Brett Jordan](https://unsplash.com/@brett%5Fjordan?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### LLMs that help robots acquire new skills
Researchers at Upenn, UT Austin and NVIDIA have [demonstrated a new approach that uses LLMs to accelerate a robot’s ability to acquire new skills](https://eureka-research.github.io/dr-eureka/?ref=s3t.org), bypassing the intensive process currently required to train robots. The new approach promises to enable robot skill acquisition at scale - for example a new behavior can be designed and refined in a simulated environment then transferred directly to a fleet of real world robots.
An interesting derivative of this would be financial simulators that develop models or approaches that can be directly applied to real world financial instruments or platforms.
### GenAI Firewalls - a new emerging AI sector
Newly unveiled [Galileo Protect](https://www.rungalileo.io/blog/introducing-protect-realtime-hallucination-firewall?ref=s3t.org) is positioned as a “GenAI Firewall” able to intercept hallucinations, prompt attacks and security threats in real time.
Galileo has created a handy [Hallucination Index](https://www.rungalileo.io/hallucinationindex?ref=s3t.org) with benchmark tests showing that GPT3/5 and 4 are least likely hallucinate, while UAE’s Falcon and Mosaic ML’s MPT-7b are most likely to hallucinate.
### AI-active companies are learning to pay attention to GPU costs
Nvidia is tipping the scales in favor of smaller players. Some of the bigger players (like AWS) have 2x higher costs. See CBInsights [2024 Tech Trends](https://www.cbinsights.com/research/report/top-tech-trends-2024/?ref=s3t.org).
### GenAI for Software Architecture & Design
Also: [**Eraser.io**](https://www.eraser.io/?ref=s3t.org) **has a decent GenAI diagramming tool for engineering teams.** In my own tests, providing it with detailed prompts that name the specific technical working parts enabled it to provide a reasonably good starting point diagram that a team of architects and developers could refine and finalize.
Their "Diagram as Code" conjures memories of the old Rational Rose tools...and I mean the version before IBM bought them :) Software history buffs, the full history is [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unified%5FModeling%5FLanguage?ref=s3t.org), [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rational%5FSoftware?ref=s3t.org), and [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBM%5FRational%5FRose?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=The%20UML%20capabilities%20were%20superseded,IBM%20product%E2%80%94Rational%20Data%20Architect.). Those were the days.
---
## Younger generations need our support, not our envy or condescension.
###
No, Gen Z is *not* the richest generation
The Economist has run [a piece claiming that Gen Z is the richest generation](https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/04/16/generation-z-is-unprecedentedly-rich?ref=s3t.org).
The author (not named in the piece) attempts to build a case based on 3 broad elements (normally a good practice), but in this piece the elements don't seem to support the claim.
- First, the piece relies on this apparently mistyped chart indicating that 15 year olds in the US have a median income of $35,000\. Perhaps this is based on [figures suggesting 11.54-18.99 hr wages for 17 year olds](https://www.ziprecruiter.com/Salaries/17-Year-Old-Salary?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=As%20of%20Apr%2030%2C%202024,percentile%29%20across%20the%20United%20States), but doesn't consider that very few in this age group are working full-time year around. Here's a screenshot of the chart in question:
- 2nd, the author attempts to prove Gen Z wealth via an anecdote from a pop concert in NY, with the logic: “if they can go to a concert they must not be poor!” (reminds of the Reagan-era argument for cutting welfare: “If they got TVs they must not be poor!”). This doesn't consider *who may have actually paid* for the tickets (parents?), or whether these individuals were actually spending within their means vs. running up unwise levels of credit card debt.
- The Economist piece also refers to a Federal Reserve working paper which [can be accessed here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2024007pap.pdf). As explained below, the paper doesn’t actually support the claims made by the Economist.
The Fed paper states that they only offer a complete comparison of the Baby Boomer, Gen X and Millennial cohorts (p8).
The paper further states that it is primarily concerned with comparing adults in their prime working age of 36-40 (p9). The paper uses the Pew definition of Gen Z (people born 1997-2012 - i.e. a person born in 1997 would be 27 this year).
Given these points, it’s safe to say this paper is not intended to be a complete source of information on the financial well-being of Gen Z. This is further supported by Figure 1 on p.32, where the authors present a chart with black vertical lines to indicate the generational cohorts they are focused on. As you can see in the screenshot below, Gen Z is not inside that scope.
The paper also acknowledges that **parental income skews the numbers for more recent generations:** **“Yet most of the income boost in their 20s is a result of living in households with higher income individuals (i.e., their parents) rather than the effects of market income or transfers received by Millennials themselves” (p23).** In other words Gen Z and Millennials may look like they have larger household incomes, but that’s because they’re living with or have continuing financial ties with their parents.
This aligns with data from other sources:
- [61% of Gen Zers are financially dependent](https://www.experianplc.com/newsroom/press-releases/2023/most-gen-zers-and-millennials-still-rely-on-parents-for-financial-support-and-feel-ashamed-asking-for-help?ref=s3t.org) on their parents.
- [71% of Gen Zers have a side gig](https://www.marketwatch.com/guides/banking/side-hustles/?ref=s3t.org) (compared to 54% of all Americans)
Sure Gen Z may have had some wage spikes due to the Great Resignation, retirements of older cohorts, recent [increases in state minimum wage laws](https://www.ncsl.org/labor-and-employment/state-minimum-wages?ref=s3t.org) or increases in prevailing wages due to service worker shortages. These points more than likely explain the Economists breathless claim in their piece that “In America hourly pay growth among 16- to 24-year-olds recently hit 13% year on year.”
### Supporting Gen Z and younger cohorts in your workplace, communities and family
It's unfortunate that a publication with the reach of the Economist issued a piece essentially dismissing the plight of a generation that is still finding their way, but its a reminder of how easy it is for all of us to be less than mindful about the challenges that others face. This is a great opportunity to reset our awareness, so we can be ready to support the upcoming generations, who very soon will be shouldering the burdens of the world.
*We can better support the success and well being of younger generations in our families, our workplaces and communities when we operate with an awareness of their economic challenges.*
Here is what to know - whether you are in Gen Z or whether you are someone who wants to support the success of younger generations in your workplace and community:
- Many Gen Z’ers have to choose between buying a house, having a family or paying back their school loans. This can mean they may need different kinds of compensation packages that help them manage student loans and prepare for major life events.
- Many may have challenging or alternative living situations - for example living with parents or roommates - that do not provide the traditional kind of home life experience most of us have come to expect. This can impact their ability to work from home. Affordable housing *especially near work places* can be highly beneficial and can reap long term dividends for municipalities wise enough to invest with this kind of foresight.
- The underlying issue that consumer buying power has not kept up with corporate pricing power, is particularly impactful to this group. For example, they are more likely to eat out, and even fast food is significantly more expensive now than a few years ago.
- Navigating healthcare is particularly challenging for this group. They may have extended needs that are not heard/recognized, and it is very easy for them to fall through the cracks, and accumulate medical debt. They can be particularly vulnerable due to HIPAA consent laws that in practice prevent parents or other advocates from sorting out bills, medication, and ensuring effective treatment (exacerbated by health provider's sloppy retention of previously granted consents).
- This generation needs to know they have a purpose in this world. Encourage them to share and activate their innovative ideas. Let them know these are valuable and - in spite of challenges, resistance and obstacles they may face - over the course of their career, they'll be glad they developed their own ideas for solving key problems. Talk to younger generations about the ups and downs that you have gone through. It's a wonderful way of letting them know, things are going to be alright.
Understanding the economic challenges faced by younger generations is crucial for supporting their success and well-being in our families, workplaces, and communities. Whether you're a member of Gen Z or someone looking to aid their success, it's important to be prepared to assist these upcoming generations who will soon take on the world's responsibilities.
If you are part of one of the up and coming generations, perhaps starting your career or somewhere the first 1/3 of it, this is for you: A few thoughts from my journey for you, the trailblazers, as you carve out your own paths:
- **Stay Nimble and Keep Learning**: The only constant in life is accelerating change, especially when it comes to the job market and tech developments. Whether through courses, books, or hands-on projects, make learning a lifelong habit. More Masterclass and Coursera, less Instagram. It’ll not only keep you adaptable but also open doors to opportunities that may not even exist yet.
- **Balance is Everything**: Your generation is refreshingly candid about mental health, and it's vital to keep that conversation going. I cannot stress enough the importance of finding your thing. What's that thing you want change in the world. Having a driving reason for doing what you're doing helps you be resilient. It's the difference between the challenges overcoming you vs you overcoming the challenges.Work hard, but make time for yourself—meditate, sleep well, pursue passions. It’s not just about enhancing productivity; it's about sustaining your happiness.
- **Raise Your Voice for Change**: You probably have an innate sense of justice and a yearning to improve the world. Own it. Whether through activism, volunteering, or starting something new, your actions can foster significant change. You are not just preparing to inherit the world; you are already shaping it. Find a community of like minded change leaders and work and think together. S3T is here for that exact purpose.
The road is rarely smooth, half the time it's not even a road lol, but it’s yours to travel. With creativity, courage, and compassion, you will have an impact far beyond what you are probably expecting. Rest up. You've got a great journey ahead.
---
## 🎯For Paying Members
*Here are some of the key insights and skills that Full Access members are leveraging. If you are a paying member, let someone else know what a great* investment *this is your career and leadership capabilities. If you're ready to sign up, click the blue Subscribe button and select* the *paid option.*
### [⚖️ Structuring for evenly distributed accountability](https://www.s3t.org/disabling-accountability-shields/)
Drama involving dependencies is a symptom of uneven accountability: one group feels the full heat of accountability for an outcome but is forced to rely on/wait for another group that doesn't feel the heat. This practical guide will help you structure for more even accountability.
### [S3T Playbook: Shift to effective gatekeeping in the age of Generative AI](https://www.s3t.org/genai-supervisory-workloads/)
Gatekeeper and approval roles carry a supervisory workload that has been matched over time to the expected output of the *human workers* producing things that require review or approval. **The current staffing for these roles is sized to match expected outputs from *human* teams - not GenAI.** Organizational leaders and talent recruiters must navigate this unusual shift in the composition of the workforce, by focusing relentlessly on 4 key priorities.
### [S3T Playbook: Harmonize Different Kinds of Expertise to Achieve Success with Emerging Tech](https://www.s3t.org/harmonize-expertise/)
Today's leaders must excel in getting very smart people with divergent sets of skills and expertise to work together as one team. This is not easy, and it's different from the command and control delegation hierarchy of the 2oth century. **But it is the only way to avoid a brand and enterprise level catastrophic loss of control.** This S3T Playbook shows you how to harmonize different kinds of expertise to achieve a desired outcome using GenAI, Web3 and other emerging technologies.
### For the full set of Member Resources in the S3T Learning Platform, click the Member link in the menu or [go here for the Member Portal.](https://www.s3t.org/members/)
---
*Thank you for reading and sharing S3T. If you are enjoying S3T please give it a like or repost on LinkedIn or other platforms where you learn and share! This helps us with our mission of encouraging change leaders and innovators in their vital work.*
##
### S3T May 3 2024 - Voter sentiment, Chips, Gold, Neko, Meta lawsuit, Crypto VC, Being present
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-may-3-2024/
Last updated: 2024-05-03T02:47:43.000Z
*Welcome to S3T, the essential newsletter, podcast, and learning platform for change leaders. Every week we review the top developments and insights you need to stay ahead of the curve, build your ethics & leadership skills, and drive intentional beneficial innovation.*
Welcome new members! If you are just signing up, here are a few ways to get the most out of your journey.
**🎧** [**Listen to this episode on the S3T Podcast**](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org) **\-** *Be sure to follow the S3T podcast so you never miss a show!*
## In this edition of S3T:
Here's a summarized version of the text, designed to engage and entice readers with bullet points, emojis, and emphasis:
- 📉 **Economic Insights & Impacts:** The Federal Reserve keeps interest rates stable for the **6th consecutive time**, acknowledging the ongoing battle with inflation. Despite official reports, many American families struggle financially, influencing voter sentiment as the 2024 election approaches. Pew and Time/Siena polls highlight a divided perception of the economy.
- 🥇 **Gold's Political and Economic Clout:** As instability looms, both adversaries and allies of the US are stockpiling gold, driving its price up by **15% in 2024**. This trend signals a preparation phase for a turbulent period, underscoring gold's historical and strategic significance.
- 🏥 **Healthcare Innovation Debate:** The introduction of **full-body scans** by companies like Neko marks a shift towards proactive healthcare. Critics argue about potential cost spikes due to false positives, but proponents see long-term benefits in revolutionizing health monitoring.
- 💻 **Tech & Financial Trends:** The rapid capital influx into crypto VCs in Q1 2024, the expansion of chip manufacturing in the US, and new dynamics in AI and finance sectors underscore a **shifting technological landscape**. Key players include Intel and emerging firms challenging traditional powerhouses.
- 🌿 **Personal Wellness in Digital Age:** Emphasizing the importance of being present, the segment offers practical tips for enhancing personal and family life away from screens. Activities include cooking, nature appreciation, and shared learning, promoting well-being and connection in today's digitally dominated environment.
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed.*
## 🤿 Rates and Voter Sentiment
The Federal Reserve met this week, and left rates unchanged for the 6th time in a row, [acknowledging lack of progress on inflation](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/01/business/economy/fed-interest-rates-inflation.html?ref=s3t.org). As we've long noticed in the S3T newsletters, the headline economic figures and the way younger individuals and families are experiencing the economy are two very different things.
### 1/3 of Americans rate the economy as poor
Another 1/3 feels its good, and the rest are somewhere in between ([Pew Research Jan 2024](https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/01/25/views-of-the-nations-economy/?ref=s3t.org)). The Fed likes to hint that they've avoiding a hard landing. Many families experience hard landings every time they try to pay their bills. This appears to be [impacting US voter sentiment](https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/biden-economic-disconnect-by-michael-boskin-2024-05?ref=s3t.org) as they look toward the 2024 election ([Time/Siena Poll of Registered Voters Feb 2024](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/03/05/us/elections/times-siena-poll-registered-voter-crosstabs.html?ref=s3t.org)).
### Gold as a signal
The price of gold is up [15% in 2024, up 22% since March 2022](https://www.barrons.com/articles/gold-silver-price-mining-stock-9b0e189e?ref=s3t.org) when the Fed started hiking interest rates. Why? [Central Banks of nations who are not US allies have been buying gold](https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/09/economy/gold-prices-record-highs/index.html?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=Central%20bank%20buying%20has%20driven,prior%2C%20according%20to%20JP%20Morgan.), but so have some NATO nations, all apparently in anticipation of a period of instability and transition, Harold James notes in this fascinating [quick history tour of gold and politics](https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/gold-price-reflects-political-and-international-uncertainties-by-harold-james-2024-05?a%5Fla=english&a%5Fd=663216673020a0444cb77872&a%5Fm=&a%5Fa=click&a%5Fs=&a%5Fp=homepage&a%5Fli=gold-price-reflects-political-and-international-uncertainties-by-harold-james-2024-05&a%5Fpa=curated&a%5Fps=main-article-a3&a%5Fms=&a%5Fr=&ref=s3t.org).
---
## 🔎 Closer look at healthcare affordability: the debate over full body scans
A new set of entrants like [Neko](https://www.nekohealth.com/en/scan?ref=s3t.org) promise more proactive health care by offering full body scans.
Max Marchioness notes that [full body scans have long been a holy grail of preventative healthcare](https://www.healthy-debate.com/p/neko?ref=s3t.org). They weren't effective/feasible until now. But just as Neko and its peers have started to crack the code, naysayers argue that [full body scans will raise healthcare costs by raising false alarms](https://clearhealthcosts.com/blog/2024/01/whole-body-preventive-scans-what-you-need-to-know/?ref=s3t.org).
Marchione counters that this isn't about immediate ROI ...it's more about the long term benefits of this kind of increased visibility and proactivity.
The merits of full body scans cannot be weighed solely on the comfort zones of the individuals who are managing the current fiscal budgets. The point of full body scans is not "what is the cost-benefit this year" - but **what would healthcare look like if properly calibrated and reviewed full body scans were done every time we walked through a doorway?**
My Grandpa said his Dad (in 1920's West Virginia) used to make fun of the town doctor for owning a car: "Lookey there! 500 dollars stuck in the mud again!"
Criticisms leveled at early versions of cars and other inventions don't age well. Yes, full body scans may cause false positives or have flaws in the near term until the systems are calibrated. But do you really want them to never be deployed or matured? Would that be a beneficial outcome?
### An analogy: Landmines that grow and multiply
As depicted in Figure 1 above, unaddressed health problems are like land mines that grow and multiply over time. Over time, unaddressed health needs in a population get bigger, more costly and harder to avoid.
- When 1 person is on an unhealthy trajectory, the situation will grow worse over time
- Unhealthy trajectories replicate themselves: the person has kids who also aren’t healthy, caregivers who are neglecting their own needs, relatives or close associates who pick up the same patterns and habits.
- Traditional actuarial mindset is to try to avoid these “mines” ie… the plan year is a minefield to tiptoe thru without your bag of money getting blown up.
- A conscientious mindset (akin to purpose statements of most health companies) would require thinking about how to clear the minefield vs tiptoe thru it.
### The need for better financial instruments
Right now the dominant health care model presumes that a single year's premiums should cover that year's population. This approach struggles to cope with the economic realities of healthcare innovation:
- Prices for certain kinds of treatments start off very high. Over time they may come down.
- In the early stages of a new treatment innovation, the effectiveness and cost/benefit can be very hit or miss. Over time they may improve.
These kinds of considerations suggest we need to find a better class of financial instruments could provide more operating models with more realistic chances for achieving affordable healthcare.
---
*Quick insights to help you sharpen your tactics and strategies in an AI-driven landscape.*
### *💰Crypto VC Recovery*
[Crypto VC raised more capital in Q1 2024 than all of 2023](https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/limited-partners-crypto-funds-bitcoin-rallies?ref=s3t.org). Pantera Capital and Paradigm are emerging as the early heavyweights in this new cycle.
### 💻 Chip Wars
The chip industry is realigning as a result of a deepening technology competition between the US and China.
- Intel is building [a $28B "mega-fab" chip factory in Ohio](https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2024-intel-comeback-chipmaking/?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTcxNDU5Nzg2NywiZXhwIjoxNzE1MjAyNjY3LCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJTQ1RST1ZEV1JHRzAwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiIxRDU0RjgxNUE1QTA0MjY3QjQ1RjhBNjI0QUQ5REU5MCJ9.JKjtq7S4KLLaASBRetwry9R871xdL9Q9%5F%5FHQ3NhBTdQ&ref=s3t.org) that could become the word's largest chip factory.
- [This South Korean new entrant](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-02/sk-hynix-s-ai-memory-chip-orders-almost-fully-booked-till-2025?ref=s3t.org) is off to a great start, with a backlog of business into 2025\.
- Taiwan's King Yuan Electronics Co - the world's leading chip testing company - [is cutting business ties with China amid pressure from the US](https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3260807/taiwan-semiconductor-firm-kyec-exit-mainland-china-amid-geopolitical-tensions-changes-cross-strait?ref=s3t.org).
### 📱Controlling your Media Intake
Should you be allowed to declutter your social media feed? [This researcher is suing Facebook](https://www.wired.com/story/meta-section-230-users-algorithm/?ref=s3t.org) for the right to control what shows up in your feed. ([Lawsuit document is here](https://knightcolumbia.org/documents/gu63ujqj8o?ref=s3t.org)).
### 🤖 AI & Finance
The [Commodity Futures Trading Commission has named its first Chief AI Officer](https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-financial-markets-regulator-names-first-chief-artificial-intelligence-officer-6c9e832e?ref=s3t.org). We've previously noted in S3T the convergence of AI and Blockchain technologies and their combined ability to enable a new set of financial building blocks. This role suggests a growing awareness of how these technologies will have a combined impact on finance and economics.
---
Photo by [Michael Saidov](https://unsplash.com/@michaelson?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Being present and happy in your personal and family life
*This week in our change leadership segment, we want to talk about some basic fundamentals for being present and being your best, in the way you show up everyday for your team, your customers and most of all your family and yourself.*
Being a change leader is tough. With today's high-speed connectivity and remote working norms, it's so easy to fall into a living pattern of always being on a screen— less than present in your own life and surroundings - and focused on dealing with some situation far far away.
When we are always in a state of being somewhere else, it causes us to miss out. We know this. But reconnecting and being present can be challenging for people who have digital connections to responsibilities and worries that lie outside of their immediate surroundings.
We hear that we should limit screen time, but when you shut your laptop and put your phone down, *what will you actually do?* Here are some simple tips that can ground you and give your mind a more positive alternative to digital overwhelm. Notice that many of these can be group activities with one or more family members, friends or colleagues.
1. **Talk with your family or significant other about your plans.** Making plans together is a great way to connect. In a family setting with a mix of adults and young adults, talking through plans together—the further ahead of time the better —is a great way to multiply enjoyment through shared anticipation. It gives everyone a voice in the planning, let's each person learn about the other's interests, These in turn enables teamwork and shared experiences that are positive for everyone.
2. **Take a few moments to make your immediate surroundings a little better.** It can be weeding the garden or tidying up a daily focal point (a place that you see or look at or sit near on a daily basis). It might be a part of your desk, or the windowsill over your kitchen sink, or the bookshelf you tend to stare at when you look up from reading or working.
3. **Take a few moments to notice and appreciate and observe nature.** It can be looking at and smelling a flower, studying the intricate parts of an interesting bug, or just quietly listening to the melody of a bird singing. Or noticing the way the sunlight outlines the leaves outside your window.
4. **Enjoy art that is located in your living or working space.** Remember where you got the piece. Or what other experiences or ideas it reminds you of.
5. **Cook or fix something to eat.** There is a world of amazing savory, flavorful cooking moments that can happen in minutes. Pour some olive oil in a skillet. Sprinkle in herbs and sea salt. Drop some cherry tomatoes in and squeeze a lemon wedge or add a drop of balsamic. Put it on a small plate with a slice of your favorite cheese. That took less than 5 minutes...and there is an endless supply of moments like these.
6. **Take a minute to jot down what you are thankful for and what positive things you think are headed your way.** Both are hard, the second one might be a little harder. But try it, and congratulate yourself because you're starting to build a life changing skill when you do.
7. **Breathe and stretch.** Taking a moment to focus on your breathing and doing some light stretching can greatly reduce stress and help you feel more grounded and present.
8. **Engage in regular physical activity**: Physical activities, whether alone or with family, can improve your physical and mental health, providing a happy, energetic boost through the release of endorphins. It can be as simple as a walk, or playing ping pong. My family used to play beach ball volleyball in the back yard after dinner when I was a kid. The beach ball was easier for younger and older people to handle vs a volley ball, and it was always a hilarious good time.
9. **Learn Something Simple Together**: Learning something new can add excitement to your life and strengthen family bonds, whether it's through a shared hobby or a class. It doesn't have to be a big complicated stress-out kind of learning either. We like to do puzzles together. Every puzzle is a new kind of challenge. We have it sitting on our coffee table in the living room, like an open invitation to just spend a few minutes working on it.
These tips can bring some variety to your routine, help reduce stress and enhance your enjoyment of time with loved ones. They also help you limit screen time, so you can have more face-to-face interactions, enhance your relationships and personal well-being.
One great thing about putting these into practice is that they help you set boundaries and start to respect personal and family time. Keeping a clear distinction between work and personal life reminds us that we aren't our jobs - in fact we aren't any one facet of our lives. We are all of them combined.
### Conclusion
Feeling disconnected or discontent from time to time is common, but it doesn’t have to define your life. You can take steps like the ones we've talked about, to be more present and grounded in your everyday life with your family and friends.
And remember, the path to happiness is built on small, consistent steps. Take it one day at a time and be gentle with yourself as you find your way back to a fulfilling life. Encouragement and support are all around you; sometimes, it just takes a small shift in perspective to see it. Stay connected, stay present, and let each day bring you closer to the joy you seek.
---
*Thank you for reading and sharing S3T. If you are enjoying S3T please give it a like or repost on LinkedIn or other platforms where you learn and share! This helps us with our mission of encouraging change leaders and innovators in their vital work.*
---
### 🐻❄️S3T April 26, 2024 -Arctic, VASA, Llama3, Mental Health cost, Synthetic media, Leading with an abundance mindset
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-april/
Last updated: 2024-04-28T17:07:31.000Z
*Welcome to S3T, the essential newsletter, podcast, and learning platform for change leaders. Every week we review the top developments and insights you need to stay ahead of the curve, build your ethics & leadership skills, and drive intentional beneficial innovation.*
**🎧** [**Listen to this episode on the S3T Podcast**](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org) **\-** *Be sure to follow the S3T podcast so you never miss a show!*
## In this edition of S3T:
📉 **Economic Overview:** The US economy slowed down in Q1 2024 due to high interest rates, though personal income slightly rose by 0.3%. Meanwhile, India's factory activity surged to its highest rate since 2008, and China's GDP also grew. Comprehensive macroeconomic data is available for members through the Global Economic Dashboard, including crypto market insights.
💵 **Crypto Payments:** Stripe announced its reintroduction of cryptocurrency payments, initially supporting USDC—a regulated digital currency exchangeable for US dollars, indicating a significant move towards mainstreaming crypto transactions.
💔 **Economic Impact of Mental Health:** A Yale study revealed that mental health issues cost the US economy $282 billion annually, akin to the economic downturn seen during a typical recession. This cost, exacerbated by reduced economic participation, is about 30% higher than earlier estimates.
🌐 **Advancements in AI and Implications for Industry:** Snowflake introduced Arctic, a specialized large language model (LLM), suggesting a shift towards more targeted AI solutions using enterprise data. Meanwhile, the integration of Meta AI's Llama 3 into social platforms and its implications for call centers highlight the transformative potential of GenAI in customer service and beyond.
🌍 **Leadership and Mindset Shifts:** The S3T Perspective emphasizes the importance of adopting an abundance mindset over scarcity to inspire and empower teams. This approach encourages inclusivity, fosters innovation, and transforms decision-making processes, preparing leaders to cultivate a sustainable legacy in their organizations.
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed.*
Photo by [Jezael Melgoza](https://unsplash.com/@jezar?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### 📉Q1 Ups and downs shaping the outlooks of your customers and stakeholders
Latest economic data shows the [US economy put on the brakes in Q1 2024](https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/us-growth-slowed-quarter-pointed-solid-economy-109604083?ref=s3t.org) due to high interest rates, while [personal income rose 0.3%](https://www.bea.gov/?ref=s3t.org). Elsewhere in Q1, [India's factory activity grew at its fastest rate since 2008](https://bfsi.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/policy/state-of-the-economy-how-did-the-macroeconomic-indicators-perform-in-march-2024/109577817?ref=s3t.org). [China's GDP also accelerated](https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/economy/global-economic-outlook/weekly-update.html?ref=s3t.org).
Complete macroeconomic data for paying members:
- For 500+ international economic indicators see the [Global Economic Dashboard](https://www.s3t.org/dashboard/).
- [Crypto Market Cap at a Glance](https://www.s3t.org/cmc/) \- top assets color coded to reflect gains/losses.
### 💵 Mainstreaming Crypto Payments
Stripe the payments company [announced this week it will begin to accept crypto payments again](https://techcrunch.com/2024/04/25/after-6-year-hiatus-stripe-to-start-taking-crypto-payments-starting-with-usdc-stablecoin/?ref=s3t.org), starting with [USDC](https://www.circle.com/en/?ref=s3t.org), the regulated digital currency that can be redeemed for US dollars.
### 💔The recession that hits every year
[A new Yale study](https://news.yale.edu/2024/04/22/novel-study-quantifies-immense-economic-costs-mental-illness-us?ref=s3t.org) that connects the dots between psychiatric research and economic data has found that **mental illness costs the US $282B per year.** This figure is on par with the impact of the average economic recession, and about 30% larger than previous estimates. [Read the full study here (PDF)](https://www.nber.org/system/files/working%5Fpapers/w32354/w32354.pdf?ref=s3t.org)
This study, unlike previous studies, factored in the changes in the diminished economic participation of people suffering from mental illness:
- Spending and consuming less
- Investing less in houses or stocks
- Choosing less demanding jobs
**“We show that mental illness alters people’s consumption, savings, portfolio choices, as well as the country’s labor supply, generating enormous annual costs to our economy.”* \- [Arthur Okun, Yale Economics](https://news.yale.edu/2024/04/22/novel-study-quantifies-immense-economic-costs-mental-illness-us?ref=s3t.org)
1 in 5 Americans live with mental illness. This suggests that 20% of the population is working, consuming and investing less than they otherwise would.
The human suffering that comes with mental illness should be motivation enough to take action to ensure access to care for all who need it. But for those who may think we can't afford to take policy and community action, this study should be evidence enough that we can't afford *not* to.
The researchers for this study deserve kudos in my view because cross disciplinary studies like this one can yield key insights about how to achieve affordability and sustainability in healthcare. This same cross disciplinary approach could be used to measure the full effects of other aspects of public health. People with health conditions in general experience reduced ability to work and earn, and may often cause others to miss work or quit their jobs in order to focus on caregiving.
This economic impact has prompted some to begin exploring alternative healthcare finance models that view healthcare medical expense as an investment in economic growth - healthier people enable healthier economies.
---
###
Photo by [Denys Nevozhai](https://unsplash.com/@dnevozhai?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## 🤖GenAI & LLM Progress
###
Mix of Experts LLMs
This week [Snowflake announced Arctic](https://venturebeat.com/data-infrastructure/snowflake-launches-arctic-an-open-mixture-of-experts-llm-to-take-on-dbrx-llama-3/?ref=s3t.org), a mix-of-experts LLM to compete w Databricks. This hints at a couple of potential trends to watch:
- Training models at lower and lower price points (Snowflake says their training compute budget was 2M)
- Shift from LLMs trained-on-internet data to LLM's trained-on-enterprise data.
Snowflake has emerged as a preferred cloud warehouse for enterprises migrating off previous generation enterprise data warehouses. These orgs hold large collections of industry specific data that was not available to the likes of ChatGPT when they were trained. Snowflake, Databricks and possibly other challengers may represent the new cohort of industry specific LLMs that unlock value beyond the abilities of the generic trained-on-internet LLMs.
More context and tech detail:
- [Training and deploying LLMs in Snowflake](https://www.snowflake.com/blog/llm-model-factory-snowflake-nvidia/?ref=s3t.org)
- [Fine Tuning LLMs in Snowflake](https://quickstarts.snowflake.com/guide/fine-tune-an-llm-in-snowpark-container-services-with-autotrain/index.html?ref=s3t.org#0)
- [Developing LLM Apps with Cortex](https://www.snowflake.com/blog/fast-easy-secure-llm-app-development-snowflake-cortex/?ref=s3t.org)
### VASA, Synthesia and Synthetic Media
[Microsoft VASA can create a talking head video](https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2024/04/microsofts-vasa-1-can-deepfake-a-person-with-one-photo-and-one-audio-track/?ref=s3t.org) from a single photo and audio track. The AI service was trained on YouTube videos of celebrities. Microsoft does not yet have plans to release this as a tool or product. Related: [Synthesia's plans for full body avatars](https://www.technologyreview.com/2024/04/25/1091772/new-generative-ai-avatar-deepfake-synthesia/?ref=s3t.org) set off a new round of deepfake alarms. The company says they prefer the term "Synthetic Media".
### Llama 3 & Meta AI - don't expect profits yet
[Meta has released Llama 3 and integrated Meta AI](https://www.theverge.com/2024/4/18/24133808/meta-ai-assistant-llama-3-chatgpt-openai-rival?ref=s3t.org) \- its answer to ChatGPT - into Instagram, Facebook, WhatsApp and Messenger. But Zuckerberg warns that [profits from Gen AI will take time to develop](https://www.theverge.com/2024/4/24/24139591/meta-q1-2024-earnings-ai-mark-zuckerberg?ref=s3t.org). (Related:Significant % of [CIOs don't expect ROI from AI for 2-3 yrs](https://news.lenovo.com/pressroom/press-releases/global-cios-scale-ai-organizations-arent-ready/?ref=s3t.org))
- [Start using Llama 3](https://llama.meta.com/llama3/?ref=s3t.org) in your AI solution.
- [Try Llama 3 via the Meta AI site here](https://www.meta.ai/?ref=s3t.org).
I tested Llama 3 against GPT-4 using a technically detailed question and asked for supporting links. **GPT-4 provided more relevant links.** Llama did not provide individual links but instead sent me to a Bing search results page.
Still, the prospect of a powerful, easy to use LLM tool suddenly being available natively in the Facebook/Instagram/WhatsApp universe is going to be a game changer.
### GenAI to impact call centers
[Overseas call centers may face an existential need to pivot over the next year](https://www.hindustantimes.com/business/tata-consultancy-services-head-s-warning-on-ai-it-could-kill-call-centres-in-a-year-101714028680871.html?ref=s3t.org), according to Tata Consultancy Services CEO K Krithivasan - if GenAI chatbots are able to analyze customer transaction history they could take over a large portion of call center work. In addition Krithivasan expects that analysis of customer transactions could actually prevent calls from coming in - addressing the customer pain point before a call is made.
---
Photo by [Ian Valerio](https://unsplash.com/@iangvalerio?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## 🦖Render Network: How will GenAI impact this token economics leader?
### Why Change Leaders are watching Render
[The Render Network](https://rendernetwork.com/?ref=s3t.org) is the first decentralized GPU rendering platform, empowering artists to scale GPU rendering work on-demand to high performance GPU Nodes around the world.
Render has emerged as a respected crypto project and attracted the attention of crypto investors because it has real-world utility (optimizing 3d rendering), a user base with observable growth, and a credible partnership with OTOY Inc - the cloud graphics company. Unlike many crypto projects it has a credible business model with potential to deliver investor ROI as it scales. Together Render and OTOY co-created OctaneRender, recognized as one of the fastest GPU renderers.
**Render is worth watching because it represents an early attempt to create a token economy that has real world practical value** \- creating a low-cost transaction layer that enables and optimizes the compute intensive process of rendering 3D animations.
Render's model and approach provide food for thought for **change leaders who are looking for ways to create low-cost transaction layers that help streamline processes in other sectors.** For example in healthcare, the set of transactions between payers and providers incur millions of dollars (maybe billions, just being conservative here) in transactional fees. Token economy approaches applied carefully could significantly reduce these transactional fees which are a significant cost factor for healthcare - one that doesn't really add value. These transaction fees are what they are because the financial institutions and networks haven't been motivated to adopt more efficient approaches.
On to our next point:
### Does the rise of GenAI threaten Render's model?
The Render business model was built with the assumption that artists would invoke the rendering process in order to complete modeling and rendering projects the artists were commissioned to do.
- GenAI allows *non-artists* to request the generation of videos, animations and other rendered images directly via a conversational prompt *without engaging artists and their teams*.
- If 3D artists who use Render are about to be dis-intermediated from the 3d model and animation rendering process, what are the implications for the Render business model and future revenues?
### Proactive Step
[Render and OTOY recently partnered with Stability AI](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stability-ai-otoy-endeavor-render-175300094.html?ref=s3t.org) in what appears to be an attempt to gain a foothold in the value chain of a GenAI dominated 3d model and animation industry.
- OTOY and Stability AI will integrate Stability AI models to run on the Render Network's GPU pool, and allow Stability AI to be invoked from within in 3d content workflows facilitated by OTOY.
- The partnership also intends to produce licensing tools that [enable artists to control their likeness and receive royalties for their IP when used in generative AI models](https://home.otoy.com/stabilityai/?ref=s3t.org).
### Questions remain
This seems like a positive proactive step. I'm hopeful that Render and its partners will find a way to keep artists in the equation, and continue to support the all important creative economic sector.
However there is a question of whether Stability AI was the strongest player Render could have partnered with. "[Midjourney generally outperforms Stable Diffusion](https://viso.ai/deep-learning/midjourney-stable-diffusion/?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=up%20to%20par.-,Image%20Output%20Quality%3A%20Midjourney,renditions%20that%20are%20highly%20detailed.)" says this comparison. [OpenAI's Sora](https://openai.com/sora?ref=s3t.org) \- text driven video generation - does not yet have a timeline for public availability, but may represent another concern for the future of the Render business model. On the positive side, advocates point to the [early preview of Stable Diffusion 3](https://stability.ai/news/stable-diffusion-3?ref=s3t.org) as a possible boost to the Stability AI in this highly competitive space.
Investors are getting a new lens on the world - looking at how and where GenAI will disrupt and change the industries and companies they are involved in.
---
Photo by [Engjell Gjepali](https://unsplash.com/@iamengjell?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## 🌍 S3T Perspective: Abundance vs Scarcity
*Cultivating an abundance mindset is an individual choice and a strategic imperative for leaders at all levels.*
The twin possibilities of scarcity and abundance are deeply rooted in the human experience. We can set our expectations toward one or the other. And this makes all the difference.
Sometimes, it's hard to believe in abundance when you're operating inside corporate structures where scarcity is the dominant mental model, and where zero sum games may be in play all around you. But remember, meaningful human achievement often happens *in spite of*, not because of scarcity driven corporate structures.
Adopting an Abundant mindset enables leaders to inspire and empower their teams by demonstrating that there is indeed enough success to go around.
**This** [**S3T Perspective on Scarcity vs Abundance**](https://www.s3t.org/abundance-vs-scarcity/) **teaches you the critical strategies you need for applying an abundance mindset in your organization, and will help you learn the following change leadership skills:**
- **Challenging Zero-Sum Thinking:** Leaders will learn how to recognize and move away from scarcity mindsets, instead embracing the limitless opportunities that an abundance mindset can provide, which is crucial for fostering innovation and growth.
- **Fostering Inclusivity and Innovation:** The text provides strategies for creating a workplace that actively engages younger generations like Gen Z and Millennials, leveraging their digital fluency and diverse perspectives to enhance organizational operations and adapt to rapidly changing markets.
- **Enabling Open Decision-Making Processes:** Leaders will discover the importance of shifting from traditional, closed-door decision-making to transparent and inclusive practices that empower all employees, fostering a sense of ownership and commitment to the organization's success.
- **Cultivating a Legacy of Leadership:** The importance of setting a precedent for future leadership styles that prioritize inclusivity and collaboration, ensuring that the next generation of leaders can sustain and build on the cultural and innovative gains made.
[***Click here to continue your learning***](https://www.s3t.org/abundance-vs-scarcity/)***.***
---
### 🌷Nature Notes
Jack in the Pulpits are flowering now in stream valleys in the shade of large trees. Here are a few of them seen this past weekend near New Hope Creek. Look for them in little groups - the first thing you'll probably spot is their 3 diamond shaped leaves then under or behind them you'll notice the flower as shown above.
Learn more about Jack in the Pulpits and other native wildflowers at the Lady Bird Johnson Wildflower Center site at [wildflower.org](https://www.wildflower.org/plants/result.php?id%5Fplant=artr&ref=s3t.org).
### S3T Apr 19, 2024 - UaC, NII, Underwriting 2030, Flip the Script, AI energy, AI Pilots, Uni vs SEC, Stablecoin Bill
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-april-19-2024/
Last updated: 2024-04-22T11:21:22.000Z
*Welcome to S3T, the essential newsletter, podcast, and learning platform for change leaders. Every week we review the top developments and insights you need to stay ahead of the curve, build your ethics & leadership skills, and drive intentional beneficial innovation.*
**🎧** [**Listen to this episode on the S3T Podcast**](https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/gets3t/episodes/S3T-Jan-5--2024---Common-themes-from-the-top-2024-Outlooks--Forecasts-e2e1948?ref=s3t.org) **\-** *Be sure to follow the S3T podcast so you never miss a show!*
## In this edition of S3T:
- 🏦 **Banking Shifts**: This week, bank stocks took a hit as customers move from low-yield deposits to higher-yielding alternatives, pressuring banks' net interest income.
- 📉 **Tech Turbulence**: Tech stocks also faced declines due to ongoing concerns about persistent high interest rates, as indicated by recent remarks from Powell on uncontrolled inflation.
- ✈️ **Autonomous Aerial Advances**: AI autonomously piloted a fighter jet in a mock dogfight against a human, suggesting precision and reliability. The Pentagon is also building AI "wingman" drones to fly alongside human-piloted fighter jets.
- 🌐 **Crypto Legislation Update**: Senators Lummis and Gillibrand propose new legislation to regulate stablecoins and ban algorithmic versions.
- ⚡ **AI's Energy Challenge**: AI technology could consume a quarter of the US's power supply by 2030, highlighting the escalating impact of AI on global resources.
- 📜 **Rethink the Routine**: Scripts—our default thinking patterns and reactions—play a crucial role in shaping our personal and professional decisions. Recognizing and adapting these internal narratives can significantly reduce inefficiencies and missteps. Learning to challenge and alter these "scripts" not only mitigates potential risks but also enhances decision-making, both individually and across industries.
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed.*
Photo by [Adam Nir](https://unsplash.com/@adamnir?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### Alarm Bells for Bank Financials
Bank stocks slid this week after [banks announced deteriorating outlooks](https://www.bizjournals.com/pittsburgh/news/2024/04/17/nii-impact-bank-earnings.html?ref=s3t.org), as customers [migrate to higher yielding deposit products](https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/bank-earnings-jpmorgan-chase-citigroup-wells-fargo-stock/card/wells-fargo-s-net-interest-income-drops-more-than-expected-cXxIEqbsvR6zWQgdlEON?ref=s3t.org). US Banking customers are [sick of 0.01 yeilds](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-17/americans-sick-of-0-01-yields-create-new-dilemma-on-wall-street?ref=s3t.org) and are shifting to higher yield options, driving a decline in bank's "net interest income" - one of the key sources of revenue for community banks ([Technical description here](https://www.kansascityfed.org/banking/community-banking-bulletins/highlight-decline-in-net-interest-income-driven-primarily-by-interest-rates/?ref=s3t.org)).
The optics: Banks have long been notoriously stingy with their payouts to depositors. Crypto based options by contrast have offered significantly higher rates. [Some sample posted rates this week](https://www.coinbase.com/earn?ref=s3t.org):
- USDC 5.10% APY
- Ethereum 2.73% APY
- Solana 4.68% APY
- Polkadot 9.27% APY
Caveat: Check reputable crypto exchanges for latest rates, Crypto is risky, may not be FDIC insured. Consult with a qualified advisor.
### Tech Stocks and Interest Rates
[Tech Stocks slide this week](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-today-tech-leads-stock-slide-nvidia-falls-almost-4-200416367.html?ref=s3t.org) as investors mulled the implications of "higher for longer" interest rates after [Powell signals inflation still isn't under control](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/powell-says-taking-longer-than-expected-for-inflation-to-reach-feds-2-target-175547831.html?ref=s3t.org).
### Bitcoin Halving
As of the middle of the week the halving estimated date was 4/19 and the BTC price had moved into the low 60s. [Some expect a muted or delayed price response](https://www.coindesk.com/consensus-magazine/2024/04/18/this-bitcoin-halving-is-different-but-is-it-priced-in/?ref=s3t.org), or even [a possible drop in price of Bitcoin](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/04/18/bitcoin-likely-to-drop-after-the-halving-jpmorgan-says/?ref=s3t.org) given the sharp rise in price earlier this year as funds flowed into newly approved Bitcoin ETFs.
###
---
Photo by [Michael Dziedzic](https://unsplash.com/@lazycreekimages?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### 💺Airborne AI
DARPA reveals autonomous AI [flew a fighter jet in a mock dogfight against a human pilot in 2023](https://www.edwards.af.mil/News/Article-View/Article/3744695/usaf-test-pilot-school-and-darpa-announce-breakthrough-in-aerospace-machine-lea/?ref=s3t.org). The dueling aircraft came within 2000 feet of each other at 1,200mph (That’s [1760 feet per second](https://www.calculateme.com/speed/miles-per-hour/to-feet-per-second/1200?ref=s3t.org) \- very little margin for error). The onboard human pilots never felt the need to take control during the flight - suggesting that these were intended precision maneuvers.
The Pentagon is funding a [Collaborative Combat Aircraft project](https://interestingengineering.com/innovation/pentagon-1000s-of-ai-piloted-fighter-jets?ref=s3t.org), developing AI piloted "wingman" drones that fly alongside fighter jets flown by human pilots, and play a number of supporting roles including protecting the human & AI squadron from enemy fire, or conducting coordinated attacks together.
Related: Brookings Institution's [AI warfare catalog of future nightmares](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/ai-and-future-warfare/?ref=s3t.org).
---
### Crypto Governance Updates
The respected bi-partisan duo Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyoming) and Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) team up once again to introduce [legislation to clarify the rules of the road for the crypto industry](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/04/17/us-senators-lummis-gillibrand-take-on-stablecoin-legislation-with-new-bill/?ref=s3t.org). This time the focus is on stable coins. Highlights:
- Defines payment stablecoins as *dollar*\-pegged digital assets used for payments (this is calculated to help persist the dollar's status as the dominant global reserve currency).
- The digital asset is not a security, and issuers would have two paths for complying with the law either as a depository institution or a non-depository institution registered with the Federal Reserve.
- Algorithmic stablecoins would be banned by the bill. Not an unexpected development given the [high profile collapse of Luna and TerraUSD back in 2022](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/18/technology/terra-luna-cryptocurrency-do-kwon.html?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=But%20last%20week%2C%20Luna%20and,value%20across%20the%20crypto%20economy.).
Meanwhile the [SEC is apparently preparing to sue Uniswap](https://cointelegraph.com/news/sec-low-odds-winning-against-uniswap?ref=s3t.org), a decentralized trading platform. It's alleged crime is unclear - other than the fact that the [Uniswap protocol](https://uniswap.org/?ref=s3t.org) has handled billions of dollars in trades without the help (and fees) of traditional banking institutions. Industry commentary:
- *"It’s been clear for a while that rather than working to create clear, informed rules, the SEC has decided to focus on attacking long-time good actors like Uniswap and Coinbase. All while letting bad actors like FTX slip by.*" - Hayden Adams, Inventor of the Uniswap Protocol.
- "*In this case, it’s for the best that the matter will be litigated against Uniswap. They are a well-funded defendant, a virtuous actor, and involve a sincerely decentralized product...*" J.W Verret, Assoc. Prof George Mason University Law School
---
### Realtime Image Generation comes to What'sApp
Meta has released an AI image generator in What's App. In a prompt, just type "/imagine" followed by some text describing whatever picture you'd like to see generated.
The above screenshot is an example I tried. Today's cover image was also generated by the Meta generator in WhatsApp - from the prompt “/imagine a group of Hudsonian Godwits feeding along a sea shore at sunset.” The picture does not show a fully accurate rendering of Hudsonian Godwits. Visit CornellLab All About Birds for [comparison and Life History information about Hudsonian Godwits](https://www.allaboutbirds.org/guide/Hudsonian%5FGodwit/id?ref=s3t.org).
[Hudsonian Godwit Identification, All About Birds, Cornell Lab of OrnithologyHudsonian Godwits are graceful shorebirds with long, slightly upturned bills, long legs, and a glorious breeding plumage of gold, brown, and brick red. They wade through arctic bogs and tidal mudflats, using their long bills to reach deep into the mud for invertebrate prey. They change to a subtle gray-brown nonbreeding plumage, and then undertake an incredible migration—nearly 10,000 miles to near the tip of South America. The passage involves flights of thousands of miles without a stop, some of it over open ocean.All About Birds](https://www.allaboutbirds.org/guide/Hudsonian%5FGodwit/id?ref=s3t.org)
---
### ⚡Forget Crypto's Energy Footprint...
[AI could use 1/4 of the US power supply by 2030](https://www.investors.com/news/technology/arm-stock-lower-data-center-power-usage/?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=Unless%20energy%20savings%20are%20found,lists%3A%20Leaderboard%20and%20Tech%20Leaders.) per a statement from Arm, an NVIDIA supplier and chip designer, commenting on the ravenous growth of AI power consumption. Arm says it has plans for lowering Data-Center Power Consumption. Related: Microsoft is [tripling its datacenter capacity](https://www.theregister.com/2024/04/18/microsoft%5Fdatacenter%5Fcapacity/?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=Microsoft%20is%20looking%20to%20significantly,appear%20to%20be%20following%20suit.).
---
## 🔎 Closer Look: Insurance Underwriting 2030
We are now several years into a cycle where insurance underwriting is being [optimized by digital and AI technologies](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/financial-services/our-insights/rewriting-the-rules-digital-and-ai-powered-underwriting-in-life-insurance?ref=s3t.org). Expected outcome: [by 2030 underwriting as we know it will no longer exist.](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/financial-services/our-insights/insurance-2030-the-impact-of-ai-on-the-future-of-insurance?ref=s3t.org)
Current example: [Sixfold is disrupting insurance underwriting](https://www.pinecone.io/blog/sixfold/?ref=s3t.org) by giving underwriters faster access to deeper context for pricing risk. Sixfold leverages [Pinecone](https://www.pinecone.io/?ref=s3t.org), a vector database with enhanced search and similarity matching.
AI technologies could [add up to $1Trillion in annual value for global insurance](https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/industries/financial%20services/our%20insights/insurer%20of%20the%20future%20are%20asian%20insurers%20keeping%20up%20with%20ai%20advances/insurer-of-the-future-are-asian-insurers-keeping-up-with-ai-advances.pdf?ref=s3t.org) per McKinsey, as new innovations remove waste from the processes. But streamlining the process isn’t the only innovation on the horizon.
### DeFi & the Future of Insurance: Underwriting as Code (UaC)
One possible glimpse of the future is the Netherlands based [crypto platform and protocol known as Opium](https://www.forbes.com/digital-assets/assets/opium-opium/?sh=20ae72393933&ref=s3t.org). For several years now a service running on the Opium platform has offered insurance for crypto traders. The specific exchange running this service - [opium.finance](https://opium.finance/?ref=s3t.org) \- is unavailable in the US. However the [parent site opium.network](https://opium.network/?ref=s3t.org) is accessible and has thorough [documentation](https://docs.opium.network/?ref=s3t.org) on how the platform works. (Financial engineering fans will enjoy digging into the section of documentation titled "Complex Description.")
What makes this documentation worth reading - even for non-Quants- is its detailed description of the Opium Protocol, a programmable [smart escrow designed to allow financial services companies to quickly build and trade financial products](https://docs.opium.network/for-developers/high-level-overview?ref=s3t.org) using recipes that encode the product specifications and lifecycle, including the real world data sources and events that will govern how the product is settled.
In other words, Opium’s approach suggests a new class of entrants that will leapfrog the [2018 AI-as-process-improvement thesis](https://www.rgare.com/knowledge-center/article/wired-to-underwrite-artificial-intelligence-and-underwriting?ref=s3t.org) dominating insurtech today. Opium is bought into the vision of Decentralized Finance as an alternative to the "too big to fail" centralized financial services model that is putting our entire system at risk. But they also represent the deconstruction of classic underwriting down into programmable chunks.
The original DeFi theory of the future as [summarized in this 2020 Hackernoon piece](https://hackernoon.com/the-question-of-underwriting-in-defi-and-whats-developing-on-that-centre-9a3n3x6r?ref=s3t.org) has been dented and dragged through the mud by the crashes and scandals of the past 2 years, but still seems directionally correct. Blockchain based architectures deployed in a decentralized zero trust manner offer a new set of financial building blocks for a more robust and equitable economy.
It will be fascinating to see how these architectures can be used to drive benefits for all those who depend on the various forms of insurance.
---
## 📜 Flip the Script: Understanding and Changing Internal & Macro Narratives
*Scripts - default thinking and reactions - have a heavy influence on our daily decisions at both personal and macro levels.*
Our minds are adept at creating "*scripts*" - internal narratives and automatic responses that dictate what we think, say, or do in specific conversations, decision points, or opportunities. These scripts often form our immediate reactions and impulses in conversations and decisions.
We curate these scripts - both at individual and industry levels. You personally have a set of scripts that guide your snap judgments and reactions. Your industry also has scripts that guide conventional wisdom and status quo thinking in that industry.
When we follow these scripts without question we put ourselves, our companies and our communities at risk of negative outcomes. It's not easy to change internal or industry narratives. But a few minutes learning this skill can save months of churn and friction.
[Continue Reading Here](https://www.s3t.org/changing-internal-and-macro-narratives/).
### 🌒 S3T Apr 12, 2024 - Between the eclipses, Climate accountability, Robot fish, Halving, De-Grids, Playbooks
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-apr-12-2024/
Last updated: 2024-04-14T02:33:28.000Z
*Welcome to S3T, the essential newsletter, podcast, and learning platform for change leaders. Hope you enjoyed and celebrated the eclipse this week! Let's review the top developments and insights you need to stay ahead of the curve, build your leadership skills, and drive intentional beneficial innovation.*
### In this edition of S3T:
Here's a summary of the text in bullet points with emojis:
- 🌒 **Eclipse Experience**: Enjoyed viewing the 2024 eclipse using the same goggles from the 2017 eclipse in Cataloochie Valley, NC in close quarters with nature's wonders like elk and the Milky Way.
- 🔄 **Reflecting on Changes (2017-2024)**: The COVID-19 pandemic, the rise of remote work, and advancements in AI and blockchain are prompting new discussions on what leadership and innovation should look like going forward.
- 🌍 **Looking Ahead**: When the next solar eclipse comes around in 2026, what will the world look like? Hints: continued crypto adoption, nature-focused robots, global stronger data privacy laws and innovative uses of blockchain in energy sustainability.
- 🌱 **Broader Implications for Leaders**: These need for agility and ethical consideration in leadership, has never been more crucial. Three S3T Playbooks provide timely advice.
**🎧** [**Listen to this episode on the S3T Podcast**](https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/gets3t/episodes/S3T-Jan-5--2024---Common-themes-from-the-top-2024-Outlooks--Forecasts-e2e1948?ref=s3t.org) **\-** *Be sure to follow the S3T podcast so you never miss a show!*
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed.*
---
## 🕶️ Eclipse notes
I took a few minutes to go outside with my family and put on those special viewing goggles. I used the same pair I used when the last eclipse 0ccurred in August 2017\.
For that eclipse we camped out with family and friends in Cataloochie Valley - a remote area in western NC known for a population of elk and night skies so dark and clean you can not only see Milky Way and the stars, you feel like you can reach up and touch them. When the eclipse darkened the afternoon skies, the elk emerged from the mountain forests and came out into the meadows like they do in the evenings.
After the eclipse had passed, someone remarked that next eclipse was in 2024, and I remember wondering what the world would be like in 2024\.
Reflecting on the period between August 2017 and April 2024, we've seen significant technology and economic events that have shaped industries, societies, and the way we think about innovation and leadership.
A short list:
1. **COVID-19 Pandemic (2019-2021)**: The pandemic was a pivotal event, accelerating digital transformation, telehealth, remote work, and e-commerce. It challenged leaders to adapt to rapid change, prioritize employee well-being, and rethink business continuity planning.
2. **Rise of Remote Work**: Catalyzed by the pandemic, remote and hybrid work models became the norm, prompting a reevaluation of workplace culture, collaboration tools, and digital infrastructure, and sparking debates on work-life balance and geographic disparities in talent distribution.
3. **AI and Machine Learning**: GPT-4 and similar models revolutionize how businesses interact with customers, automate processes, and analyze data, prompting discussions on ethics, job displacement, and the future of work.
4. **Cryptocurrency and Blockchain Evolution**: Despite volatility, cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology saw increased adoption and regulation. Innovations like DeFi (Decentralized Finance) and NFTs (Non-Fungible Tokens) offered new ways to think about asset ownership, copyright, and financial systems.
5. **Global Economic Shifts and Challenges**: Trade tensions, inflation spikes, and supply chain disruptions prompted companies to rethink globalization. The emphasis shifted towards resilience, localization, and digital twins to mitigate future disruptions.
6. **Sustainability and Climate Change Initiatives**: With growing awareness of climate change, there was a significant push towards sustainability in business practices, renewable energy adoption, and green technologies. Leaders faced the challenge of balancing profitability with environmental responsibility.
7. **Space Exploration and Commercialization**: The successful launch of missions by SpaceX, Blue Origin, and governmental agencies promises a renewed era of space exploration and commercial space travel.
8. **Applying ethics and more meaningful regulations to emerging tech**: As technology permeated every aspect of life, governments and organizations grappled with privacy, security, and ethical issues, leading to new regulations like GDPR enhancements and discussions around AI governance.
The list could also include 5G rollout, first steps in Quantum Computing and others.
It's also interesting to consider the Phases of this period.
- **Pre-pandemic 2017-2020** \- During this time the groundwork was being laid for many technologies that would later become essential: AI, 5G, IoT, blockchain and early crypto experimentation, along with a focus on digital transformation for businesses. Remote work technologies emerged but were not widely adopted. The first seeds of AI and data ethics led to GDPR.
- **Pandemic 2020-2022** \- adaptation and resilience in the face of the global pandemic, notably the hard shift to remote work, and the radical acceleration of drug development. The pandemic also brought to the forefront the fragility of the globalized supply chain system.
- **Post Pandemic 2022-2024** \- the aftermath of the pandemic has brought us an uneven financial recovery, with deceptively positive headline economic numbers, but severe inflation and affordability impacts to families. The world is just now starting to grapple with the incredible acceleration of mental health issues partly driven by the isolation / online existence of so many during the Covid pandemic.
For change leaders, these events underscore the importance of agility, ethical consideration, and the continuous reassessment of business models in the face of rapid technological and economic shifts. Reflecting on these developments can offer valuable lessons in leadership, innovation, and resilience.
The next solar eclipse apparently is scheduled for August 12 2026 - Here's hoping that these next two years will be a little less "interesting" 🙂. But that may be too much to ask.
---
### Bitcoins halving - an important inflation control mechanism that traditional currencies lack - is on target to occur around April 16\.
Bitcoin halving events occur about every four years and decrease the rate at which new Bitcoins are created, by cutting in half the rewards for mining new Bitcoins. This process of systematically introducing scarcity is specifically designed to prevent inflation.
Bitcoin's halving process provides an inflation control that traditional government issued currency systems do not have. Coinbase has a handy [Bitcoin Halving explainer and countdown clock here](https://www.coinbase.com/bitcoin-halving?ref=s3t.org).
### Data Privacy Win
Maryland has [passed some of the strongest data privacy legislation in the nation](https://pirg.org/maryland/media-center/statement-maryland-passes-one-of-the-strongest-privacy-laws-in-nation/?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=The%20Maryland%20Online%20Data%20Privacy,to%20sign%20it%20into%20law.), marketing a possible turning point in the long pattern of weak and ineffective governance of big tech firms. The bill would go into effect in October 2025 and would force companies to adjust their data collection and handling.
### Blockchain & Energy: Decentralized Energy Grids
The energy and sustainability industries are mulling and experimenting with a [number of blockchain use cases](https://consensys.io/blockchain-use-cases/energy-and-sustainability?ref=s3t.org). Here's a brief timeline of how formalizing of this emerging sector:
- 2019: [Energy companies establish a blockchain consortium](https://www.globaldata.com/newsletter/details/us-blockchain-consortium-launches-to-lead-blockchain-adoption-in-oil-and-gas-industry/?ref=s3t.org) to advance industry use cases.
- 2023: [Blockchain 4 Energy announces an industry specific Web3 platform](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20230207005034/en/Blockchain-for-Energy-Launches-an-Inclusive-Platform-to-Access-and-Build-Smart-Contract-Solutions?ref=s3t.org) running on [Hyperledger Firefly](https://www.hyperledger.org/projects/firefly?ref=s3t.org).
- 2024: [Decentralized Energy Grids](https://www.scip.org/news/667373/Decentralized-Energy-Grids-How-Blockchain-is-Reshaping-the-Future-of-Energy-Distribution-.htm?ref=s3t.org) \- blockchain for energy distribution. Is DeGrid the new buzz term here? dEnergy?
This is early and speculative in my view, but definitely something to watch.
Orthogonal but important new piece from EnergyWire: [How much power is the crypto industry using?](https://www.eenews.net/articles/unsolved-mystery-how-much-power-is-crypto-using/?ref=s3t.org)
### Nature & robots
[Robot fish could help capture water quality data and monitor aquatic biodiversity](https://hakaimagazine.com/news/get-ready-for-the-robotic-fish-revolution?ref=s3t.org) \- and do so in a less disruptive way than today’s methods.
---
Photo by [Torsten Dederichs](https://unsplash.com/@tdederichs?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## 🏭Climate accountability & the definition economic success
*2 new developments this week signal a sea change in how companies and governments can be held accountable for the consequences of climate/environmental impacts.*
The European Court of Human Rights [ruled in a landmark case that nations can be held responsible for failing to take protective actions](https://apnews.com/article/europe-eu-climate-court-human-rights-3b540a965aff7e2b49f1451c7a328e77?ref=s3t.org). The ruling sets important legal precedent for European nations, and could influence regulations elsewhere.
In a similar vein the EPA is (finally) [cracking down on the amount of toxins that chemical plants are allowed to release into the air](https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4582067-epa-to-crack-down-on-toxic-emissions-from-more-than-200-chemical-plants/?ref=s3t.org), after mounting evidence that people who live within 6 miles of these plants have sharply higher rates of cancer. The measures are expected to reduce these cancer rates by more than 90% and address a key factor in environmental justice.
**Both of these scenarios challenge the dominant economic conventional wisdom: that the "economy" had to be allowed to do its thing regardless of impacts to environments or communities.**
We are at a very important inflection point.
### Rethinking the definition of wealth
Glistening Deepwater raises interesting questions in [this paper](https://www.academia.edu/16101501/Imagine%5Fa%5Ffuture%5Fwhere%5Fquality%5Fof%5Flife%5Fand%5Fgenerative%5Fecological%5Fvalues%5Fare%5Fthe%5Fmeasure%5Fof%5Fwealth?source=swp%5Fshare): *Imagine - a future where quality of life and generative ecological values are the measure of wealth.*
Here are two excerpts that stood out to me - and speak to the new developments shared above:
- “In the current ‘profit-as-the-measure-of-success’ model of planetary governance...\[human rights\] are routinely violated through the implementation and enforcement of government sanctioned corporate agendas (Sriskandarajah 2015)”
- "How can those who are willing to preserve and protect life itself, themselves be protected from the intimidating actions of corporate led, military enforceable modes of industrial resource extraction and manufacturing waste production which are currently dominant in our civilisational model?”
Behind these question sit the need to keep on developing our understanding of economics. To enable healthier wealthier communities, we must rethink the things we've been taught about wealth and economics. If you have ever faced individuals or companies who were resisting necessary change under the guise of financial necessity, this is the learning path for you.
As Yanis Varoufakis notes in [Economics is Irredeemably Sexist](https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/philosophical-sexism-deters-women-from-economics-by-yanis-varoufakis-2024-03?ref=s3t.org), the central theory of economics, "[Homo Economicus](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/homoeconomicus.asp?ref=s3t.org)", is a fiction invented and perpetuated by 19th century privileged white males steeped in power, privilege and a colonialist world view.
The conventional wisdom on economics we accept and assume to be true to today is plagued with flawed mental models and myths. **Learning to recognize these flawed mental models is the first step** toward making decisions and setting in motion operating patterns that enable the kinds of outcomes we all say we want.
To begin your learning journey toward effectively advocating for good outcomes, take some time to go through [The Evolution of Economics: Understanding the Limits of Conventional Economics](https://www.s3t.org/the-evolution-of-economics/), a recent S3T Perspective paper that helps change leaders **make decisions that lead to the outcomes we say we want, instead of just perpetuating the same old harms.**
By learning to watch for flawed mental models, and learning how to challenge them effectively when working with leaders to make better decisions, we can do our part to enable a healthier wealthier *world* vs just a healthy wealthy *few.*
### A healthy wealthy world: the S3T point of view
A healthy wealthy world is worthwhile outcome to work toward.
A problem solving mindset that learns and works toward a healthy wealthy world will achieve more good than a pessimistic mindset that retreats into despair, or presumes that things can't get better.
A healthy planet requires healthy ecosystems - natural, social and financial.
Healthy ecosystems require healthy communities.
Healthy communities require healthy individuals.
These are all sets of things that work together and impact each other.
We must combine our individual skills and perspectives into sets of initiatives that effectively address challenges we face, and move us **toward a healthy wealthy *world*. Not just a healthy wealthy few.**
Nurturing the health and wealth of individuals, communities, ecosystems and the planet is a high calling that offers an opportunity for every person's diverse gifts and talents.
You are a part of this worthy work. Your daily efforts and alertness make a difference.
###
---
## S3T Playbooks: 3 timely ways to gain an advantage
*S3T Playbooks provide succinct proven strategies for overcoming the toughest challenges face by change leaders. If you are part of a forward thinking organization that is trying to drive beneficial intentional innovation, take advantage of valuable lessons learned.*
[**Finding an actionable GenAI use cas**](https://www.s3t.org/validating-ai-use-cases/)**e** \- Unfortunately it's not always easy to figure out exactly where and how an emerging technology like AI can be used. Today's overhyped expectations complicate matters further, creating a "why-can't-we-just-do-something" level of desperation among senior leaders.
[**Detecting and Disabling Accountability Shields**](https://www.s3t.org/disabling-accountability-shields/) \- When GenAI or other emerging tech projects do get the green light, teams find they have dependencies on other parts of the organization which may not feel equally accountable for the outcome. How to understand this problem and solve it.
[**Harmonizing different kinds of expertise in order to win**](https://www.s3t.org/harmonize-expertise/). Getting to successful outcomes with GenAI and other emerging technologies will require expert orchestration of different kinds of expertise. This is different from the traditional command and control delegation to specialists. How to make the switch.
*Thank you for reading and sharing S3T!*
### 🦉S3T Apr 5 2024: Debt, Retirement, Suno.AI, DePIN, Decentralized AI, GenAI & Workforce shifts: 4 Leadership priorities
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-apr-5-2024/
Last updated: 2024-06-09T00:35:54.000Z
*Welcome to S3T, the essential newsletter, podcast, and learning platform for change leaders. Every week we review the top developments and insights you need to stay ahead of the curve, build your ethics & leadership skills, and drive intentional beneficial innovation.*
**🎧** [**Listen to this episode on the S3T Podcast**](https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/gets3t/episodes/S3T-Jan-5--2024---Common-themes-from-the-top-2024-Outlooks--Forecasts-e2e1948?ref=s3t.org) **\-** *Be sure to follow the S3T podcast so you never miss a show!*
## In this edition of S3T:
🌏 **Global Financial Outlook**: 88% of financial simulations predict a bleak future for the US economy due to increasing debt. The Japanese Yen might hit new lows if the Fed doesn't cut interest rates in 2024, according to Bank of America.
🎵 **Suno.AI: AI Music Generation**: Suno.AI creates "hit songs" from text prompts, offering up to 500 songs a day for $8/month, challenging traditional music production economics. While not aiming to replace artists, Suno.AI represents a shift towards hyper-personalization in music, amidst ethical and legal debates.
🚀 **AI & Blockchain Developments** Interest grows in Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks (DePIN) and Decentralized AI, suggesting a future less dominated by Big Tech.
🤖 **Generative AI & Workforce Shift**: This week's S3T Playbook highlights an imminent flood of productivity from GenAI, forcing a shift in workforce composition towards more effective gatekeeping roles.
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed.*
## The magic number this week is 88
- The [average US saver has 88K in savings](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-02/saving-for-retirement-americans-say-they-need-1-5-million?ref=s3t.org). Conventional wisdom suggests [$1.5M is needed for adequate retirement savings](https://smartasset.com/retirement/is-1-5-million-enough-to-retire-at-65?ref=s3t.org).
- [88% of financial simulator scenarios showed negative outcomes for US future economy](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-01/us-government-debt-risk-a-million-simulations-show-danger-ahead?ref=s3t.org) as debt grows.
**Elsewhere:**
- Trouble for the Yen - [Bank of America projections suggest the Japanese Yen may slide to new lows](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-02/bofa-sees-yen-plunging-to-160-per-dollar-if-fed-delays-cuts?ref=s3t.org) if the Fed doesn't cut interest rates in 2024.
- [Debt continues to hamper low income countries](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Policy-Papers/Issues/2024/04/02/Macroeconomic-Developments-and-Prospects-For-Low-Income-Countries-2024-547064?ref=s3t.org) globally though markets outlooks are improving (IMF Report).
Photo by [Gama. Films](https://unsplash.com/@gamafilms1703?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
---
## Creators of Suno.AI, a scarily convincing AI music generator, says they don't want to replace artists
[Suno.AI](https://www.suno.ai/?ref=s3t.org) generates "hit songs" including lyrics and recording studio vocals and instrumentals from text prompts indicating a music genre, mood, and a few topical words. The sound quality is impressive. The melodies and lyrics are - well - what you'd expect from a GenAI output...a little hokey and not all there.
The [subscription plans as explained by Tech Radar here](https://www.techradar.com/computing/artificial-intelligence/what-is-suno-ai?ref=s3t.org) offer an interesting insight into the differential between the productivity costs of GenAI vs human creators :
- The free plan let's you generate 10 songs a day - no artist has ever kept up that pace
- The Pro plan at $8 per month lets you generate 500 songs a day - no record label can compete with those kind of economics.
This offers a glimpse of the kind of hyper-personalization at scale that is currently beyond the reach of human-based creativity...at least the way it's organized currently.
### Just waiting for those lawsuits...
Rolling Stone magazine tried to delve into the big question: what was this trained on? [The founders refuse to disclose that, though their comments do suggest they fully expect to be sued](https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-features/suno-ai-chatgpt-for-music-1234982307/?ref=s3t.org). The team also says they aren't trying to replace musicians; they just think that there are lot of people out there who would like to generate songs for fun. The future version of the Jukebox, minus a music industry. In cloud teams we talk about Infrastructure as Code (IaC for the cool kids). This sounds like Record Label as Code.
### Two kinds of potential impact
1. **Impact to the music industry:** Some will say the music industry with its long tradition of predatory treatment of musicians, and dumbing down of fan music choices in pursuit of profit is finally getting the judgement day it always deserved. Maybe. But this could have a negative impact to many hard working musicians as well.
2. **Impact to everyone who loves and creates music:** There is a difference between watching a YouTube video of someone hiking the Grand Canyon vs actually hiking the Grand Canyon. One is creating and participating in an experience, the other is consuming a depiction of the experience. There is likewise a difference between generating a song from a prompt vs. holding a guitar in your hand and working out a new song chord by chord - along with its lyrics, and then finally being able to play that song to an appreciative audience. People who know that difference may be in the minority, but they will probably not ever choose a prompt-driven existence over the experience of being a creator.
On the other hand, for every songwriter out there who wonders what their song would sound like if it had some additional instruments or backup vocals that they can't afford to hire, or can't seem to find at the moment, tools like this one put them one step closer to at least seeing what that would be like.
### Ethics perspectives
The ethical landscape surrounding the integration of Generative AI (GenAI) in the music industry is complex, touching upon concerns of industry equity and the authentic essence of musical creation. For musicians, legal professionals, and industry leaders committed to navigating these uncharted waters ethically, it's important to critically assess both the potential harms and benefits.
- GenAI could exacerbate the industry's historical challenges, including the exploitation of artists and could marginalize human creativity and effort.
- But it also could offers unprecedented opportunities for artistic enhancement and accessibility, allowing musicians to experiment with sounds and compositions beyond their immediate capabilities or resources.
Change leaders will want to find ways to respect and preserve the integrity of musical creation while mitigating the risks—like unfair treatment of musicians and dilution of the creative process. This approach could foster an industry that is more innovative, more inclusive and equitable.
## AI & Blockchain Developments...
- [AI & Blockchain Convergence](https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2024/04/02/how-ai-and-blockchain-can-revolutionize-the-internet-as-we-know-it/?ref=s3t.org) is getting noticed in the mainstream press, as [DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks) attracts investor interest](https://cryptoslate.com/iotex-secures-50m-investment-expanding-depin-narrative-for-next-cycle/?ref=s3t.org).
- The related concept of [Decentralized AI](https://www.coindesk.com/consensus-magazine/2024/03/27/the-enablers-of-decentralized-ai/?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=Decentralized%20AI%20will%20focus%20on,for%20open%2Dsource%20generative%20AI.) gives some hope for an [AI future liberated from the control of Big Tech](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/02/ai-decentralized-big-tech-blockchain?ref=s3t.org).
---
# S3T Playbook: Shift to effective gatekeeping in the age of generative AI
---
💡
****"** **A Great Flood - of words and code - is coming soon."-** [AI:The Great Flood 2.0](https://www.s3t.org/s3t-sunday-dec-11/), S3T, December 2022.
### The world's supervisory workloads are about to explode and our staffing models are not ready.
The [S3T edition for December 11, 2022](https://www.s3t.org/s3t-sunday-dec-11/) noted that the rise of GenAI would usher in a flood of productivity. We're now living in that reality. Between now and 2025 proactive companies and talent recruiters have the opportunity to facilitate a major if not once-in-a-lifetime **shift in the composition of the workforce.**
### Background
There is a broad category of work today that exists across multiple industries and disciplines that we could categorize under the heading "gatekeepers" or "approvers."
Together these roles are responsible for a supervisory workload: reviewing, testing, scrutinizing, inspecting work products, documents, and deliverables before allowing them to progress to the next step, or be used in real world situations. Making sure that things work the way the should and comply with best practices or laws.
These roles have job titles that contain terms like "Quality Control", "Editor", "Compliance", "Security", "Testing", "Auditor" or "Governance." They include jobs that are responsible to check words, documents, media, code, processes and usability.
The work of these roles can range from product review to code review, document review and more. What gets reviewed could be AI models that require approval from an ethical or clinical governance team before they’re used in production. It could be documents or presentations that need to be approved before they are accepted or presented.
### Current supervisory/gatekeeping capacity is sized for the productivity of the old world, not the new
These gatekeeper and approval roles carry a supervisory workload that has been matched over time to the expected output of the *human workers* producing things that require review or approval. **The current staffing for these roles is sized to match expected outputs from *human* teams - not GenAI.**
Current staffing for these gatekeeper roles is generally believed to be barely adequate for current levels of output, and organizations frequently complain that gatekeeper roles cause bottlenecking and delays to key initiatives.
**This situation is about to get a lot worse.** Going forward, gatekeeper roles will have:
- more to review - much more,
- less time to review it in,
- more complex criteria to review against.
### The world's focus has been on *production*, with inspection & gatekeeping being largely an underfunded afterthought
In our modern economy to date, success has been defined in terms of higher productivity at lower cost. Safety, integrity and compliance is ignored until demanded by legal penalties or consumer backlash. Everything in our economy is geared to rewarding higher productivity at lower cost. GenAI appears to be making making this market principle irrelevant.
The problem of increasing productivity - at least for digital products and the knowledge economy - is now solved. GenAI tools can produce in 1 hour more material, media, content, words and software code than a human could read, consume or review in a month.
But this increased level of output should be thought of as **digital raw material** that requires inspection, correction and refinement before it can be turned into a safe usable product or service.
From now on, the primary problem of the digital economy will be how to process this digital raw material and turn it into something safe, ethical and useful.
- Setting standards and methods for implementing and enforcing them.
- Setting and managing processes that review, refine and approve.
- Deciding what is worth inspecting and correcting vs what is best deleted.
- Owning and operating processes for intervening in the AI product delivery lifecycle or data supply chains in order to improve GenAI or LLM outputs.
## Preparing for effective governance in the age of generative AI: 4 Leadership priorities...
### [Full Access Members can continue reading here](https://www.s3t.org/genai-supervisory-workloads/).
### S3T March 29, 2024: Zombie projects, Gr00t, Floating architecture, Pig kidneys, multi-gen housing, GPT adoption...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/march-29-2024/
Last updated: 2024-03-29T05:28:29.000Z
*Welcome to S3T, the essential newsletter, podcast, and learning platform for change leaders. Every week we review the top developments and insights you need to stay ahead of the curve, build your leadership skills, and drive intentional beneficial innovation.*
**🎧** [**Listen to this episode on the S3T Podcast**](https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/gets3t/episodes/S3T-Jan-5--2024---Common-themes-from-the-top-2024-Outlooks--Forecasts-e2e1948?ref=s3t.org) **\-** *Be sure to follow the S3T podcast so you never miss a show!*
### 🦉 In this edition of S3T:
- **📈 Economic Growth & Challenges**: New figures reveal the US economy grew by 3.4% in Q4 2023, slightly higher than initially reported. Despite this, employment in a third of states lags behind pre-pandemic levels, and consumer sentiment has dipped.
- **🔒 Food Insecurity Focus**: 15 states are blocking a crucial food security program for 8 million children, exacerbating summer food insecurity. This highlights the pressing issue of health equity and the need for comprehensive solutions to food deserts and related disparities.
- **🏠 Housing Trends Transformation**: The trend of smaller homes continues, marking the 9th consecutive year of reduction in size. Coupled with a significant increase in multigenerational households, these trends reflect changing economic realities, and may help explain consumer sentiment.
- **🌍 Climate Innovation - Floating Worlds**: Koen Olthuis and Waterstudio lead groundbreaking efforts in floating architecture, offering sustainable and adaptive solutions for communities threatened by rising sea levels. This innovative approach showcases a future of resilience and sustainability.
- **🤖 Tech & AI Evolution**: Nvidia's unveiling of Project Groot signals a leap towards more versatile and humane robot designs, pushing the boundaries of AI and robotics. Concurrently, the adoption of AI tools like ChatGPT is on the rise, signifying a transformative phase in technology use and acceptance.
- **🧭 Change Leadership:** How to recognize and **stop zombie projects** before they consume your organization's limited resources and focus.
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed.*
### Macro views this week
New figures show that [the US economy grew at a rate of 3.4% in Q4 2023](https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/us-economic-growth-quarter-revised-slightly-healthy-34-108604888?ref=s3t.org) \- the figure was revised upwardly from the originally published figure of 3.2%. But [employment in 1/3 of states remains slower than pre-pandemic levels](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-25/employment-in-16-us-states-remains-below-pre-pandemic-levels?ref=s3t.org).
These [11 charts show how the Covid pandemic changed the economy](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/03/16/economy-recovery-covid-unemployment-wages-debt-groceries/?ref=s3t.org). Things recovered, but aren't quite the same. Nutshell, consumer sentiment is down. Nearly everything else is up.
[Bitcoin moved back into the 70s this week](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-price-etfs-crypto-cryptocurrency-104428915.html?ref=s3t.org) after spending the previous week in the 60s. Investors mull their options [as the halving nears](https://www.forbes.com/sites/lawrencewintermeyer/2024/03/27/the-april-2024-bitcoin-halving-to-invest-or-not-to-invest/?sh=4630972f33eb&ref=s3t.org) (expected in April).
### Food insecurity during summer months
[15 states have decided to shut 8 million children in at-risk communities out of a food security program](https://www.splcenter.org/news/2024/03/15/states-federal-summer-food-program?ref=s3t.org) that would have ensured adequate food during summer months when school lunches are not available. The program targets children eligible for free or discounted school lunches based on family income.
Learn more about health equity and food insecurity:
- [Food deserts: how they impact health and food security](https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/what-are-food-deserts?ref=s3t.org)
- USDA Paper: [Definition and characteristics of food deserts (PDF)](https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/publications/45014/30940%5Ferr140.pdf?ref=s3t.org)
- [Race related health disparities](https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/health-equity?ref=s3t.org) \- selected examples
### Smaller house trend coincides with continued rise in multigenerational households
The “shrinkflation will hit your home” meme is making the rounds in this week’s economic news but this trend has been around for a few years now. In fact [2023 marked the 9th straight year that homes got smaller](https://pomp.substack.com/p/shrinkflation-has-seeped-into-the). A look back:
- 2022: [high end homes shrinking](https://themreport.com/news/data/08-30-2022/shrinkflations-impact?ref=s3t.org)
- 2023: new single-family homes built ”[few hundred square feet smaller” than the 2018 average](https://www.marketplacehomes.com/blog/real-estate-trends/2024-shrinking-house-real-estate-trend/?ref=s3t.org).
- 2024: [the starter home is dead](https://fortune.com/2024/03/12/shrinkflation-coming-for-your-home-housing-market-small-houses/amp/?ref=s3t.org) \- likely due to a mix of factors. Young home buyers in today‘s economic environment literally have to choose between paying off college, having kids or buying a home
Over an even larger period, [the US has seen an 4x increase in multi-generational households](https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2022/03/24/financial-issues-top-the-list-of-reasons-u-s-adults-live-in-multigenerational-homes/?ref=s3t.org) \- multiple generations of family living in a dwelling intended for a single family. The trend [was boosted by Covid](https://marriott.byu.edu/magazine/other-articles/multi-generational-momentum?ref=s3t.org), is expected to continue and [influence the way homes are designed](https://www.nar.realtor/magazine/real-estate-news/sales-marketing/experts-multigenerational-housing-needs-more-support?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=%E2%80%9CIntergenerational%20housing%20is%20the%20wave,multiple%20generations%20under%20one%20roof.).
[Image courtesy of Pew Research Center](https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2022/03/24/financial-issues-top-the-list-of-reasons-u-s-adults-live-in-multigenerational-homes/?ref=s3t.org)
---
## **🌊 Climate - Floating architecture for a flooding world**
Photo by [Leo Wieling](https://unsplash.com/@leowieling?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
###
### Around the globe, coastal and river delta communities are bracing for the rise of sea levels from climate change.
Koen Olthuis founder of [Waterstudio](https://www.waterstudio.nl/?ref=s3t.org) has for [two decades been creating increasingly ambitious floating architectures](A Dutch Architect’s Vision of Cities That Float on Water): individual dwellings, restaurants, hotels and more recently a floating forest in the Persian Gulf and [a floating city in the Maldives](https://maldivesfloatingcity.com/?ref=s3t.org). These structures float on foundations of hollow concrete forms tethered to rings on poles driven down into the submerged ground. This allows the structures to float up and down with changes in the water level.
Photo by [Nathan Cima](https://unsplash.com/@nathan%5Fcima?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### Lessons from history
For thousands of years, communities (often vulnerable oppressed communities) around the world have been forced to find innovative ways to exist as floating societies. This [broader view of the history of floating cities](https://www.archdaily.com/992148/floating-cities-of-the-past-and-future?ref=s3t.org) surfaces lessons for our own imminent future.
Photo by [Suhyeon Choi](https://unsplash.com/@by%5Fsyeoni?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
Photo by [Frida Aguilar Estrada](https://unsplash.com/@fridaae29?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
Here are [8 floating city projects](https://www.domusweb.it/en/sustainable-cities/2023/08/02/floating-cities.html?ref=s3t.org) taking shape around the world right now. One that bears specific mention: the Maldives Floating City - noted above as one of Koen Olthuis' recent projects - is part of the Maldives aspiration to be the world's first carbon neutral country (see their [environmental statement here](https://maldivesfloatingcity.com/environment/?ref=s3t.org)).
[Maldives Floating City - World’s First True Floating Island CityMaldives Floating City is the first of its kind across the globe — developed to equally embrace sustainability and livability. Explore here!Maldives Floating City.](https://maldivesfloatingcity.com/?ref=s3t.org)
---
### Gr00t - Humanoid Robots
Nvidia [just unveiled Project Groot](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/foundation-model-isaac-robotics-platform?ref=s3t.org), or "Generalist Robot 00 Technology," which it positions as a foundation model for building humanoid robots.
This adds support to the expectation that that future robots can be soft and flexible in contrast to the shiny plastic or metallic hard shell designs seen thus far.
As noted previously in S3T, researchers at the University of Tokyo have successfully demonstrated a [biohybrid robot that can move via live lab grown muscle tissues](https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1031750?ref=s3t.org) triggered by electrical pulses. While the initial demonstration was limited and slow, the robot was able to walk and pivot.
### GPT adoption in US has a ways to go - as other nations move aggressively
[43% of US adults under 30 have used ChatGPT](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/03/26/americans-use-of-chatgpt-is-ticking-up-but-few-trust-its-election-information/?ref=s3t.org). 23% of all US adults have used it. Expect this to accelerate as more companies roll out usage guidelines for employee use of AI tools.
[Saudi Arabia plans to invest 40B in AI](https://techreport.com/news/saudi-arabia-set-to-invest-40b-in-ai-under-a16z-oversight/?ref=s3t.org) allegedly via partnership with Andreessen Horowitz (a16z).
MacroPolo is [tracking global AI talent](https://macropolo.org/digital-projects/the-global-ai-talent-tracker/?ref=s3t.org): where it originates, goes to school, and ends up working. China produces more AI undergrads (and keeps more of its post grad talent at home now than ever) but the US is still the top destination for career seekers.
### **Pig hearts, now pig kidneys**
Surgeons at the Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston [transplanted a genetically modified pig kidney into a patient for the first time](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/21/health/pig-kidney-organ-transplant.html?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=A%20Medical%20Milestone%3A%20Surgeons%20in,Americans%20whose%20kidneys%20have%20failed.). Researchers hope that the milestone procedure will one day become a standard replacement for dialysis and human kidney transplants.
---
Photo by [julien Tromeur](https://unsplash.com/@julientromeur?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Special Feature: Zombie Projects
Zombie projects take on a life of their own when key stakeholders are allowed to develop unrealistic expectations - *before qualified developers or engineers have had a chance to confirm what is actually feasible.*
### What are zombie projects?
Zombie projects are ideas - usually involving new or emerging technology - that actually can't succeed **because something foundational is missing or insufficient**, but proceed anyway and waste focus, talent, and money in the process.
Examples of missing or insufficient elements:
- Missing or insufficient data that prevents a viable useful AI solution from being created.
- Limitations in the available data or technology that prevents them from meeting the requirements.
- Lack of a clear use case that meaningfully meets a need for a customer.
- Lack of appropriately skilled talent to actually execute and implement the idea.
- Some other non-obvious issue or hidden flaw that removes success from the realm of possibility.
Because these issue are not obvious to most, ideation and planning discussions can snowball into overhyped expectations, premature commitments, then doomed-from-the-start budgets and resource plans.
Overhyped expectations die slowly, and often burn significant time and money in the process.
### Understanding how zombie projects work
They don't just happen with GenAI. They relate to a dynamic that has been around for decades and impacted many of the hype cycles that came before.
- An initial spark of excitement: someone meets a vendor, attends a conference, reads tech headlines etc - and come away with an idea.
- People without direct line of sight into pivotal details share the idea and make commitments to leaders they hope to please/impress.
- Leadership sees a chance to create a badly needed win and agrees to sponsor, adding funding and legitimacy to an idea that has not been vetted.
- The rest of the team feels pressure to "just make it happen". At this point, any voice of reason who raises their hand to ask for an empirical approach is sidelined.
- Lots of meetings and discussions happen. The originally intended outcome does not. Over time attention shifts to something else.
If you understand how Zombie projects happen, and the social dynamics that drive them then you will be in a position to be voice of reason and trusted advisor in your organization. More importantly you can help your team avoid time sinks and focus on initiatives that have a chance at real world impact...
### 🧟 [Paid Members Continue Reading Here ](https://www.s3t.org/stop-zombie-projects-from-s/)
###
**Related:** [**S3T Framework for validating AI use cases**](https://www.s3t.org/validating-ai-use-cases/)
*In the dynamic world of Gen AI, the ability to identifying legitimate and actionable use cases is becoming new crucial skillset for leaders.*
### 🥯S3T March 22, 2024 - Rate Cuts, Inflation Tracking, Grok-1, B200, Failures of imagination, LLM energy consumption, Harmonizing different expertise.
URL: https://www.s3t.org/march-22-2024/
Last updated: 2024-03-22T05:49:53.000Z
###
*Welcome to S3T, the essential newsletter, podcast, and learning platform for change leaders. Every week we review the top developments and insights you need to stay ahead of the curve, build your leadership skills, and drive intentional beneficial innovation.*
---
### In this edition of S3T:
- **📉 Rate Cut Rally:** Discover how **market euphoria** over the Fed's signal of three interest rate cuts sent the markets to record highs.
- **📊 Evolution of Inflation Tracking:** Explore insights from a new NBER working paper that argues if inflation in 2022 was measured like in 1980, it would hit 18% instead of 9.1%. Learn about the **hidden impacts of inflation** on individuals and families, shedding light on the cost of money as part of living costs.
- **💡 AI Innovation:** Get the latest on **Grok-1**, the largest open-source AI model yet, and the cutting-edge developments in reducing AI's energy consumption with KAIST's C-Transformer AI chip. Plus, NVIDIA's groundbreaking B200 super chip that promises to revolutionize AI processing.
- **🚑 Cybersecurity in Healthcare:** Reflect on the **continuing impact of the Change Healthcare Cyberattack**, highlighting the urgent need for enhanced security measures in the healthcare industry and the broader implications for risk management in an increasingly digital world.
- *🚀🌟* **Change Leadership Skill Building:** In today's fast-paced world, the ability to bring together brilliant minds from diverse disciplines is not just an advantage; it's a necessity. Unlock the Secret to Multidisciplinary Success with this new S3T Playbook! Exclusive Content For Paid Memberships
**🎧** [**Listen to this episode on the S3T Podcast**](https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/gets3t/episodes/S3T-Jan-5--2024---Common-themes-from-the-top-2024-Outlooks--Forecasts-e2e1948?ref=s3t.org) **\-** *Be sure to follow the S3T podcast so you never miss a show!*
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed.*
### Market euphoria over interest rates and 3 rate cuts
[Market's hit record highs](https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-sp500-nasdaq-micron-stock-mu-microsoft-msft/?ref=s3t.org) after the [Fed held rates steady](https://www.axios.com/2024/03/20/fed-interest-rate-announcement-march-2024?ref=s3t.org) and[ signaled that 3 interest rate cuts](https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2024/03/20/march-federal-reserve-meeting-live-updates/73027664007/?ref=s3t.org) would be done later this year.
### If 2022 peak inflation had been measured the same way it was in 1980, it would have been 18% not 9.1%
In this new NBER working paper, [*The Cost of Money is Part of the Cost of Living: New Evidence on the Consumer Sentiment Anomaly*](https://www.nber.org/papers/w32163?ref=s3t.org) four economists piece together new insights on why today's inflation figures do not accurately reflect the economic impacts being felt by individuals and families today.
### Key indicators were removed from the consumer price index
- In 1983, mortgage costs were removed from the consumer price index (CPI)
- In 1998 car payments were removed from the index
When the 2023 interest rate hikes occurred, official inflation figures did not reflect the full impact on people because *today's measures do not include the cost of borrowing.*
Excerpt: [Lawrence Summers Thread](https://x.com/lhsummers/status/1762607534676853015?s=46&t=GoPAAwUSN6sNrDA2LhP96Q&ref=s3t.org)
---
### xAI releases Grok-1, the largest open source model yet
[Grok-1 takes the top spot](https://x.ai/blog/grok-os?ref=s3t.org) in open source models with 314B parameters, leaping ahead of Llama 2 (70B). GPT-4 still outperforms.
xAI released Grok-1 under the Apache 2.0 license March 17, noting that Grok-1 is a raw base model trained from scratch and is not fine-tuned for specific applications. Instructions for trying it out: [github.com/xai-org/grok](https://github.com/xai-org/grok?ref=s3t.org)
### Reducing LLM energy consumption: Korean chipmaker first attempt
KAIST develops the "Complementary-Transformer" (C-Transformer) AI chip, claimed to be the world's first [ultra-low power AI chip capable of training LLMs](https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2024-03-07/business/tech/KAIST-researchers-develop-worlds-first-neuromorphic-AI-chip/1996289?ref=s3t.org).
At first glance the chip appears to "[put to shame](https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/korean-researchers-power-shame-nvidia-with-new-neural-ai-chip-claim-625-times-less-power-41-times-smaller?ref=s3t.org)" NVIDIA's chips, with claims that they can "[match the speed of Nvidia's A100 GPU](https://sg.news.yahoo.com/ai-chip-built-using-ancient-221706021.html?ref=s3t.org)" but there are open questions about actual performance of the C-Transformer chips.
Still - it is good to see attempts being made to reduce the energy footprint in the AI industry.
### Meanwhile NVIDIA unveils its next level GPU
This week at the GPU Technology Conference, [NVIDIA unveiled the B200, an AI super chip based on the Blackwell architecture](https://spectrum.ieee.org/nvidia-blackwell?ref=s3t.org) (two 800 sq mm silicon dies linked by a 10TB per Second connection so they perform as one chip). NVIDIA says the new architecture delivers:
- 4x better training performance
- 30x inference performance
- 25x energy efficiency
than its predecessor. The new super chips are expected to be rapidly adopted by Big Tech - in fact the [NVDIA announcement itself reads like a PR lovefest of big tech](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-blackwell-platform-arrives-to-power-a-new-era-of-computing?ref=s3t.org) talking up their plans for using the chips.
### Update: Impact of Change Healthcare Cyberattack Continues
[UnitedHealthcare says it has paid $2Billion](https://www.healthcareitnews.com/news/change-healthcare-roundup-uhg-pays-out-2b-while-feds-mull-cyber-compliance-rules?ref=s3t.org) in advances to struggling healthcare providers as the industry's payment processing continues to be paralyzed, and [threatens credit ratings of smaller orgs](https://www.chiefhealthcareexecutive.com/view/change-healthcare-cyberattack-fallout-could-hurt-credit-ratings-of-smaller-providers-fitch?ref=s3t.org). The situation has Congress mulling the idea of mandating a new baseline of security protections for healthcare organizations.
Further reading, under the heading of **"Failures in risk management are failures of imagination"**
- HBR: [Preparing for risks you can't foresee](https://hbr.org/2020/11/the-risks-you-cant-foresee?ref=s3t.org)
- Standford: [Learn to Imagine Failure](https://ecorner.stanford.edu/clips/learn-to-imagine-failure/?ref=s3t.org)
- ArXiv: [*Overcoming Failures of Imagination in AI Infused System Development and Deployment*](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2011.13416.pdf?ref=s3t.org)
### Tech mythology and the new future of empiricism: The debate over open vs private models
Until now, we have predicated scientific advancement on empirical work. This has always carried with the implication of firsthand, direct hands-on repeatably provable findings.
Now, however, the rise of AI models is putting a layer between practitioners, researchers analyst, and the real world. Models are trained on amounts of data that no human could ever verify. (Some may argue that such data tools have the potential to *extend* our empiricism, or enable a new more advanced version of it.)
**So a question for you: Are black boxes and science compatible? DM me on LinkedIn or X and let me know your thoughts. I'd love to hear from you!**
*🚀🌟 Unlock the Secret to Multidisciplinary Success with the S3T Playbook! Exclusive Content For Paid Memberships 🌟🚀*
### In today's fast-paced world, the ability to bring together brilliant minds from diverse disciplines is not just an advantage; it's a necessity.
[This S3T Playbook on Harmonizing Different Kinds of Expertise 📖](https://www.s3t.org/harmonize-expertise/) is your ultimate guide to mastering this art, ensuring you lead your team to unparalleled success.
🤝 **Foster Unprecedented Collaboration:** Learn how to blend different skills and expertise into a unified force, tackling today’s biggest opportunities and threats with innovative solutions.
🔍 **Navigate Technological Landscapes:** With emerging technologies at every turn, discover the keys to unlocking their true potential, not through the tech itself, but through synergistic collaboration.
💡 **Overcome Discipline Rigidity:** Break down barriers of traditional thinking and rigid perspectives. Our playbook shows you how to leverage diverse expertise, turning challenges into stepping stones for success.
🛠 **Practical, Real-World Strategies:** Armed with strategies that have been tested in the trenches, you'll be ready to lead cross-disciplinary teams through the complexities of innovation, achieving results that were once thought impossible.
💥 **Transform Challenges into Opportunities:** Dive into a world where paradigm shifts are embraced, and learn how to turn them into your biggest advantages.
Don’t miss out on the chance to lead with confidence and creativity. [Click through to subscribe and gain full access to insights](https://www.s3t.org/harmonize-expertise/) that will empower you and your team to soar to new heights. Embrace the change, lead with vision, and make your mark in the world of innovation. Subscribe today to start investing in your learning and development! ✨🔗
---
### **Congratulations - you just invested well-spent time increasing your understanding** of the Big Picture, key tech and economic developments, gaining perspectives you can leverage this coming week!
Thank you once again for reading and sharing S3T, and thank you for the change leadership you are exercising - driving needed change whether on a
- personal level,
- team level,
- org level or
- macro level.
It's *all* equally important and impactful.
Your ability to drive change on team/org/macro levels starts with your ability to learn and make changes in your own life. Likewise your ability to continue driving change on larger levels happens as long as you continue to learn and make changes in your personal life and habits.
Have a great weekend!
Ralph
---
### 🎯 For Paid Members: [New Updated Insights and Learning Resources](https://www.s3t.org/members/)
*Free Members: Sign up today to get your paid membership and gain full access to the S3T Learning Platform!*
###
### S3T-March 15, 2024: Dencun, Digital Fashion, Stickyflation, Figure 01, Devin, GPT Detectors
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-march-15-2024/
Last updated: 2024-03-15T05:28:40.000Z
*Welcome to S3T, the essential newsletter, podcast, and learning platform for change leaders. Every week we review the top developments and insights you need to stay ahead of the curve, build your leadership skills, and drive intentional beneficial innovation.*
### 🌸 In this edition of S3T:
- **📊 Economic Insights:** Mixed signals with **improving growth** but **persistent inflation**; location and essential costs significantly affect experiences, amidst a backdrop of **2% income growth** versus **3% inflation**.
- **🚀 Tech Advances:** **Ethereum's Dencun Upgrade** slashes transaction costs; innovations like **conversational robots** and **AI software engineering** pave the future of digital interactions.
- **🔍 AI Integrity:** Tools to **bypass GPT detectors** raise concerns over AI's reputation; effectiveness and ethical implications of derivative AI products come into question.
- **🌐 Digital Identity:** Surge in **digital assets** and products, including cryptocurrencies and NFTs; growth of **virtual personas** and **digital fashion** points to an immersive digital economy.
- **👁️🗨️ Key Themes:** Emphasis on adapting to economic variances, leveraging technological breakthroughs, upholding AI ethics, and embracing the digital identity evolution.
**🎧** [**Listen to this episode on the S3T Podcast**](https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/gets3t/episodes/S3T-Jan-5--2024---Common-themes-from-the-top-2024-Outlooks--Forecasts-e2e1948?ref=s3t.org) **\-** *Be sure to follow the S3T podcast so you never miss a show!*
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed.*
---
## 📊 Economy: 2 points up, 3 points down
The outlook for global growth is [improving but inflation is showing persistence](https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/world-growth-outlook-improves-inflation-is-showing-persistence-13-03-2024?ref=s3t.org). As noted previously in S3T, the way different segments of the population experience our current economic conditions can be very different depending on where they live, where they work, as well as their costs for healthcare, housing, education and child care.
### 2% Income Growth...on average
As shown in this BEA measure of US income county by county, there is quite a difference, with some areas experiencing high growth and some experiencing the opposite. Keep in mind some of the higher percent changes can indicate increases from very low-income levels - particularly in rural areas. Rising income is good to see, but not a guarantee that financial sustainability or security has been reached.
The **average income growth is 2%** as of this BEA report published Nov 2023 looking back on 2022 (Next report due Nov 2024). So 2% overall income growth doesn't sound too bad right?
### **But here's the problem: 3% Inflation**
As [Lyn Alden noted](https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact/status/1767560115979493835?ref=s3t.org), inflation is stubbornly sticking at/above 3%. See BLS chart below:
### Those with means are looking for ways to escape inflationary conditions:
*“Many advisors have clients who are worried about the US fiscal situation, and are using bitcoin as a release valve for that concern.” -* [Matt Hougan](https://x.com/matt%5Fhougan/status/1767886740641956244?s=46&t=GoPAAwUSN6sNrDA2LhP96Q&ref=s3t.org), observations from clients.
**Unfortunately, there are significant numbers of people who do not have the same means.** This impacts different consumer segments differently:
- Patients and their families face medical debt and health risks associated with limited access to services.
- Families may see their savings impacted by rising costs and rising household debt.
- Recent grads face challenges as the labor market softens
Companies, community organizations, and governments can improve their positive impact by being mindful and inquisitive about how their customers and constituents are experiencing the economy.
**More sources**
- U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) [U.S. Economy at a Glance](https://www.bea.gov/news/glance?ref=s3t.org)
- U.S. Department of Commerce [Economic indicators](https://www.commerce.gov/data-and-reports/economic-indicators?ref=s3t.org)
---
## Emerging Tech
##
### Dencun Upgrade will cut Transaction Costs on Ethereum
Ethereum's [Dencun Upgrade went live this week](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/03/14/layer-2-blockchains-become-cheaper-after-ethereums-dencun-upgrade/?ref=s3t.org), marking yet another successful and highly complex release. This upgrade introduces lower-cost data storage in the form of Binary Large Objects (aka blobs), which in turn is expected to cause transaction fees to drop by \~90% and open up a broad range of application use cases that previously were cost-prohibitive.
**Notable:** Mainstream media coverage: [Fortune](https://fortune.com/crypto/2024/03/13/ethereums-fix-for-its-gas-fee-problem-is-now-live-what-you-need-to-know-about-the-dencun-upgrade/?ref=s3t.org), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/12/what-investors-need-to-know-about-dencun-ethereums-next-big-tech-upgrade.html?ref=s3t.org), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2024/03/14/ehereums-dencun-upgrade-a-leap-toward-cheaper-decentralized-applications/?sh=7a5f89072add&ref=s3t.org)
### Go Figure 1
Figure 01 is a new robot powered by OpenAI models that can have a conversation while performing requested tasks. Short video below:
> With OpenAI, Figure 01 can now have full conversations with people
>
> \-OpenAI models provide high-level visual and language intelligence
> \-Figure neural networks deliver fast, low-level, dexterous robot actions
>
> Everything in this video is a neural network: [pic.twitter.com/OJzMjCv443](https://t.co/OJzMjCv443?ref=s3t.org)
>
> — Figure (@Figure\_robot) [March 13, 2024](https://twitter.com/Figure%5Frobot/status/1767913661253984474?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org)
**Also**: [Meet Devin](https://www.cognition-labs.com/blog?ref=s3t.org) the world’s first AI Software Engineer.
---
### 🔎 Defeating GPT Detectors
As previously reported in S3T, GPT detector tools like [ZeroGPT](https://gptzero.me/?ref=s3t.org) can detect whether text was generated by AI vs. by a human. [CopyLeaks](https://copyleaks.com/ai-content-detector?ref=s3t.org) claims to be able to detect (and fix) plagiarized text.
Now a new set of tools aim to defeat GPT detectors and allow users to hide the fact that they used AI to generate content. Two examples:
- [HIX Bypass](https://bypass.hix.ai/?ref=s3t.org)
- [Bypass GPT](https://bypassgpt.ai/?ref=s3t.org)
Here is a HIX Bypass example: I took some text that had been generated by ChatGTP and asked HIX to "humanize" it. HIX actually increased the number of words from 89 to 120\. I'm not sure it made it more "human" or readable.
So I took the Ouput and fed it back into the "Your Content" field on the left to see what would happen if HIX.AI humanized it further (Maybe just me, but I think it got worse).
I did it a third time and it got even worse. The eroding performance may relate to HIX's plagiarism-free guarantee as shown in this screen shot:
Some of the clunky passages may be the result of more readable strings being off-limits.
PLOT TWIST: I then took the same paragraph (which had originally been generated by ChatGPT-4) and asked ChatGPT-4 to "humanize it". Here is the original prompt and the output from ChatGPT-4:
To me, ChatGPT-4 does a better job of "humanizing" text - even its own text - than the other tools.
### Implications
Taken together, this suggests a couple of important awareness items for change leaders focused on using AI to create value and benefits:
- AI is already incubating a serious reputation/ integrity problem: creators who use it to generate end-user content seem anxious to obscure the fact that they used it. *What does it say about an industry when the industry rushes to help customers obscure the fact that they use that industry's products?* And are there policy and editorial implications here?
- It is not clear that derivative GPT products can perform any better than the top-end ChatGPT-4 (and peers), *when fed the appropriate prompts.* **If derivative products are indistinguishable from effective prompts, that's a VERY important consideration for founders and investors in the GenAI space.**
---
Photo by [Malicki M Beser](https://unsplash.com/@themalicki?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
###
## 👜The digital identity ecosystem
##
### Digital assets and products
Digital currencies and products are centerstage once more, after a lull during 2022 - 2023.
It’s not just [BTC blowing past 70K this week](https://cointelegraph.com/news/btc-price-blasts-through-70k-5-things-bitcoin-this-week?ref=s3t.org), and [setting a record $1B in single day ETF inflows](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-etfs-hit-record-inflows-172847591.html?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=Bitcoin%20exchange%2Dtraded%20funds%20%28ETFs,this%20time%20above%20US%2473%2C000.). Or retail microinvesting platform [Republic offering a Crypto wallet](https://republic.com/wallet?ref=s3t.org).
There’s something broader:
- [Drake shared a Michael Saylor Bitcoin interview](https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/03/12/rapper-drake-posts-michael-saylors-bitcoin-video-to-his-146m-instagram-followers/amp/?ref=s3t.org) with his 146m Instagram followers. The famous interview has Saylor explaining his company's decision to buy Bitcoin and "hold it for 100 years."
- DC Comics is celebrating the [85th Anniversary of Batman with a new NFT collection](https://blog.candy.com/the-legacy-cowls-collection-launches-march-29-2024-commemorating-the-first-dc-super-villain-created-with-fans/?ref=s3t.org). This celebrates the introduction of a new villain co-created with fans, and *Batman: the Legacy Cowls*, the first DC Comic on the blockchain.
This broader trend also goes beyond the excitement factor of investing and collecting. We're seeing the rise of a new digital identity ecosystem and economy.
### A digital version of you:
More new tools promise to give you a virtual persona that is lifelike and animated:
- [D-ID Creative Reality](https://www.d-id.com/creative-reality-studio/?ref=s3t.org) takes a photo of you and turns it into a talking head agent for training videos or explainers. Learn more and see developer API documentation [here](https://www.d-id.com/?ref=s3t.org).
- [Soul machines](https://www.soulmachines.com/?ref=s3t.org) is another emerging player in the space, hoping to differentiate themselves via what they call “Biological AI”: “*Unlike deepfake or dataset approaches of yesterday, our Digital Brain™ is modeled on human systems like Sensory, Nervous, and Motor. So Digital People hear, see, and react with empathetic responses*...*This creates deep, authentic customer connection – essential for building brand trust and loyalty.”*
With these tools, influencers can create virtual versions of themselves. So could coaches, advisors and doctors (somewhere here there a line that should not be crossed).
### Of course, a digital version of you needs a digital wardrobe:
Virtual Fashion - which made a splash in 2021 ([here](https://www.vice.com/en/article/akvzqz/virtual-digital-clothes-fashion-game-skins-metaverse?ref=s3t.org) and [here](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/fashion/style/meet-fashion-fans-buying-500-virtual-outfits-wear-online/?ref=s3t.org)) - is back on the runway, with renewed demand and fresh new digital garments and experiences per [BNP Paribas L'Alelier](https://atelier.net/?ref=s3t.org) which expects the sector to grow to $128B this year. (BNP Paribas, the French banking giant, owns a research consultancy L'Atelier that focuses on future trends and goes by the name BNP Paribas L'Alelier). The emerging theme in 2024 is digital clothes you can wear and [show off virtually in a still photo or animated image](https://getpocket.com/explore/item/inside-the-cyber-fashion-market-where-digital-clothes-sell-for-thousands?ref=s3t.org).
There is a clear trend toward mimicking human creativity and empathy in the most compelling way possible. This includes the development of a new personal ecosystem where your virtual self becomes animated, able to speak and act independently of you, and where a market for fashion and digital goods evolves to provide positional goods for that digital version of you.
---
REFLECTION
Quote by Stephen McCranie
---
### **Congratulations - you just invested well-spent time increasing your understanding** of the Big Picture, key tech and economic developments, gaining perspectives you can leverage this coming week!
Thank you for reading and sharing S3T, and thank you for the change leadership you are exercising - driving needed change whether on a
- personal level,
- team level,
- org level or
- macro level.
It's *all* equally important and impactful.
Your ability to drive change on team/org/macro levels starts with your ability to learn and make changes in your own life. Likewise your ability to continue driving change on larger levels happens as long as you continue to learn and make changes in your personal life and habits.
Have a great weekend!
Ralph
---
### 🎯 For Paid Members: [New Updated Insights and Learning Resources](https://www.s3t.org/members/)
*Free Members: Sign up today to get your paid membership and gain full access to the S3T Learning Platform!*
### 🌷S3T Mar 8, 2024 - BTC's new ATH, Divergent Economics, Claude3, Insurance Bubble, Anxiety driven work, Feeding Dangerously...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-mar-8-2024/
Last updated: 2024-03-08T05:44:34.000Z
*Happy Friday everyone! Welcome to the S3T edition for March 8!*
- **Economic Key Data Points:** BTC reaches a new all time high. 3 months into the year, investments in Bitcoin are already 1/3 of the total worldwide investment in gold. Divergent economics - why the costs of some things are way up, while others are way down.
- **Emerging Tech:** [Anthropic](https://claude.ai/?ref=s3t.org) claims that its latest release, Claude 3 [beats GPT-4](https://techcrunch.com/2024/03/04/anthropic-claims-its-new-models-beat-gpt-4/?ref=s3t.org). Insurance is using AI more than you might expect. Emerging challengers to the Apple & Google App Store duopoly.
- **Reflection:** Are you motivated by Anxiety or Purpose. How to make a shift in your habits, that will give you better effectiveness and a better work life experience.
- **Change Leaders:** Chef Andres and Steve Orlando teamed up recently to create [*Feeding Dangerously*](https://wck.org/comicbook?ref=s3t.org), a graphic novel that tells the story of the World Central Kitchen.
**🎧** [**Listen to this episode on the S3T Podcast**](https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/gets3t/episodes/S3T-Jan-5--2024---Common-themes-from-the-top-2024-Outlooks--Forecasts-e2e1948?ref=s3t.org) **\-** *Be sure to follow the S3T podcast so you never miss a show!*
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed.*
---
## Macro Economic need to know
### 🎢 New Bitcoin ATH
BTC reaches a new all time high - [over 69K this week](https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-68423452?ref=s3t.org) \- and remains in the high 60's as of writing. The volatile digital asset has been on an upward trend as investment firms encourage their clients to invest record setting amounts in BTC ETFs. [These figures from JPMorgan](https://www.dlnews.com/articles/markets/bitcoin-tops-gold-when-adjusted-for-volatility-jpmorgan/?ref=s3t.org) provide perspective:
- Amount of gold held for investment = $3.3 Trillion
- Amount of BTC held for investment = $1.3 Trillion
Will investors take BTC to the same level? The JPMorgan notes above suggest that Bitcoins high volatility (higher than gold) will cause it to be retained in smaller amounts in the average portfolio. Still we are less than 3 months from the initial SEC approval that started this investment cycle.
### 🙀Divergent Economics
*Why have the costs of some things gone way up over time, while the costs of a few other things have come way down?*
Chartr used Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data to create this [comparative view of inflation](https://www.chartr.co/newsletters/2024-03-03?ref=s3t.org) that perfectly illustrates the problem with the Fed's preferred inflation measures:
- Some expenditures are way up, some are way down.
- But the ones that went up comprise a much larger portion of household budgets - these expenditures (college, housing, healthcare) can be *multiples* of average annual salaries.
For individuals and families the net impact can be brutal, while headline economic figures still average out to look pretty good.
The dramatic fall in the price of televisions is one of the factors impacting movie theaters, as Chartr explains in this [deep dive into the evolving entertainment preferences of Americans](https://www.chartr.co/newsletters/2024-03-03?ref=s3t.org):
- People prefer to stay in the comfort of their homes and watch movies on their big screen TVs
- Movie theaters haven't figured out a viable answer to the "streaming" experience that has captivated so many Americans.
Here in the S3T Community we make it a priority to try to maintain awareness of economic realities that face our customers and communities. As we have opportunity we can also advocate for better outcomes.
**More Perspectives:**
- [Why 2020's Inflation is Different](https://www.s3t.org/inflation-perspectives/).
- [Economics is so defective because it’s sexist](https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/philosophical-sexism-deters-women-from-economics-by-yanis-varoufakis-2024-03?ref=s3t.org).
### 🌀Climate risk creates an insurance bubble
Climate [impacts are catching up to property insurers and homeowners](https://insideclimatenews.org/news/06032024/florida-skyrocketing-insurance-rates/?ref=s3t.org). According to a [First Street Foundation study](https://firststreet.org/research-library/the-insurance-issue?ref=s3t.org), 39 million properties in the US are overvalued when considering their unpriced risk and what their insurance premiums and property value would actually be if an updated assessment of flood or other disaster risks were conducted.
[Image Courtesy of First Street Foundation](https://firststreet.org/research-library/the-insurance-issue?ref=s3t.org)
**Related:** As noted further below, insurance companies are embracing AI in hopes of gaining an edge over challenges like this one.
---
## Emerging Tech
##
### Challenging the App Store Duopoly
Courts keep [siding with tech giants in spite of onerous fees and contracts](https://www.wired.com/story/apple-epic-defeat-app-store-victory/?ref=s3t.org), but the Apple and Google App Stores do face emerging challengers:
- OpenAI’s [ChatGPT Store](https://openai.com/blog/introducing-the-gpt-store?ref=s3t.org) offers a simplified approach for building and releasing custom versions of ChatGPT.
- Now, Solana is [launching a 2nd mobile app platform with web3 integration](https://unchainedcrypto.com/cloud-based-smartphone-application-aphone-rolls-out-mainnet-on-solana/?ref=s3t.org). This follows Solana‘s earlier release of an [Android based smartphone optimized for Web3](https://decrypt.co/126218/solana-saga-review-web3-smartphone-arrived?ref=s3t.org).
### Claude 3 Beats GPT-4
[Anthropic](https://claude.ai/?ref=s3t.org) claims that its latest release, Claude 3 [beats GPT-4 across all metrics](https://techcrunch.com/2024/03/04/anthropic-claims-its-new-models-beat-gpt-4/?ref=s3t.org) that measure different levels of difficulty:
- Undergrad 86.8% vs 86.4%
- **Grad-level 50.4% vs 35.7%**
- Grade School Math 95% vs 92%
- Math problem-solving 60.1% vs 52.9%
Go [here](https://medium.com/@AhmedF/anthropics-claude-3-beats-gpt-4-across-main-metrics-feb72963564a?ref=s3t.org) for complete list of metrics with explanations. And here for Anthropic's [official announcement](https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude-3-family?ref=s3t.org). To see the how Claude is pushing the envelope, check out [Karina Nguyen's](https://twitter.com/karinanguyen%5F?ref=s3t.org) capability demos:
> I really love how Claude 3 models are really good at d3\. Asked Claude 3 Opus to draw a self-portrait. The response is the following and then I rendered its code:
>
> "I would manifest as a vast, intricate, ever-shifting geometric structure composed of innumerable translucent… [pic.twitter.com/mMfG32mByz](https://t.co/mMfG32mByz?ref=s3t.org)
>
> — Karina Nguyen (@karinanguyen\_) [March 4, 2024](https://twitter.com/karinanguyen%5F/status/1764789887071580657?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org)
### Insurance and AI
Cigna scores highest in [CB Insights AI Readiness Index](https://www.cbinsights.com/research/ai-readiness-index-insurance/?ref=s3t.org) \- a ranking of the top 50 insurance companies (all sectors) based on 2 factors:
- Ability to develop or acquire promising AI capabilities
- Ability to execute AI initiatives that deliver value.
Notable points from the analysis:
- State Farm leads in AI related patents, filing over 300(!)
- 34 of 50 have inked partnerships with AI startups.
- None of the 50 companies scored consistently in both categories (see list below).
Below is an excerpt of the list. [Go here to see the entire list](https://www.cbinsights.com/research/ai-readiness-index-insurance/?ref=s3t.org).
---
CHANGE LEADERS
## New Graphic Novel
**Chef Jose Andres** is an inspiring example of change leadership in action. Spurred by the simple but powerful thought that "Food is a universal human right", Chef Andres leads rapid response relief efforts to serve "chef-prepared meals to communities impacted by natural disasters and during humanitarian crises." Over the years this initiative has provided more than 350 million meals to disaster and war torn areas around the globe, most recently delivering food to Ukraine and Gaza.
Chef Andres and Steve Orlando teamed up recently to create [*Feeding Dangerously*](https://wck.org/comicbook?ref=s3t.org), a graphic novel that tells the story of the World Central Kitchen, the relief organization founded by Andres to bring food to people impacted by hurricanes, volcanos, wildfires, and other disasters. Visit the link below to see sample artwork and order your copy.
[World Central Kitchen | The World Central Kitchen Graphic NovelCo-written by José and Steve Orlando, Feeding Dangerously: On the Ground with José Andrés and World Central Kitchen is a graphic novel that follows the WCK Relief Team from Puerto Rico to The Bahamas and beyond to ensure no one is left hungry after a disaster.World Central Kitchen](https://wck.org/comicbook?ref=s3t.org)
---
REFLECTION FOR CHANGE LEADERS
## 🧭 How to Shift from Anxiety Driven Work to Intentional Work
*This Change Leadership insight note is especially relevant for anyone trying to move to the next level of effectiveness. The first crucial step is to examine what motivates you to work: fear or purpose. This will help you gain clarity about how you're spending your time, what you're focusing on the most, *and where that's taking you.**
Is your work driven by anxiety or intention? Which of these uneasy feelings do you identify with:
- Fear of falling behind
- Fear of looking dumb, or weak, or not up for job
- Fear of disappointing others
They all relate to *fear of not being good enough, or not doing enough.* Now, it’s normal to feel these fears. We all do. BUT we don't have to let them dictate our actions.
💡
Fear-based busyness **doesn't get solved by doing more busyness*. It gets solved by you changing this habit: stop following your fears. Instead, just feel them, and then decide what you're going to focus on.
### Fear-based work is a rat wheel. A very bad rat wheel for 3 reasons:
1. **Fear-based work is a poor investment.** Spending your career in fear instead of purpose will force you to pour a LOT of time and energy into activities that in the long run get you very little compared to what you invested. You'll likely end up feeling stretched too thin...and your customers and co-workers will notice.
2. **Fear-based work is never-ending.** Never done. Nothing you do is ever enough. Why? *It comes from your habit of being fearful* \- not from the actual work or opportunities. Fear-based busyness *doesn't get solved by doing more busyness*. It gets solved by you changing this habit: stop following your fears. Instead, just feel them, and then decide what you're going to focus on.
3. **Fear-based work will distract you from what's truly important to you, and you really want to accomplish.** Unintentional work - whether it's empty inboxes or checked-off task lists - can give us a deceptive feeling of accomplishment, while our real opportunities get neglected and missed.
For better rewards and outcomes, replace your habit of Fear Based Work with **2 habits that lead you to Intentional Work.**
**For Paid Membership:** [**How to Shift from Anxiety Driven Work to Intentional Work**](https://www.s3t.org/anxiety-vs-intentional/)**.**
---
## Nature Notes: Spring flowers and how to find them
Now is the perfect time to get outdoors and take note of the early spring flowers starting to bloom on the forest floor. Most are small and easy to overlook, but if you stop to examine them, you can't help but marvel. Here are a few photos taken this past week of spring flowers.
*Azure Bluet* (or one of the members of the Bluet family)
*Trout Lily*
*Rue Anemone*
### How to find them
Look for trails that follow or lead to streams. These plants thrive in the more moist conditions along waterways. As you go along the trail, check the stream banks, as well as around the base of trees. It's still early - more species will be in bloom in the next few weeks.
---
## Sign up for S3T
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### S3T Mar 1, 2024 - Baby Bonds, Accountability Shields, BTC & Inflation, AI Airstrikes, Floppy music, PE & security
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-mar-1-2024/
Last updated: 2024-03-02T18:15:31.000Z
## Sign up for S3T
The newsletter and learning platform for people who are leading change. Join us!
Subscribe
Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
### 🐝 In this edition of S3T:
- **Economic Key Data Points:** Consumer confidence is down, Bitcoin is up. The recent cyber attack on a well-known healthcare conglomerate adds a new category of evidence that Private Equity does more harm than good. On the brighter side: Baby Bonds.
- **Emerging Tech:** AI can't provide reliable answers to historical or political questions, but the US is using it to decide where to drop bombs. Github Copilot goes mainstream.
- **Fun:** Low-quality music on floppy disks is a thing. Yes, here in 2024\. Get yours before they corrupt and stop working.
- **Reflection:** What Success and Failure have in common, and how to check your thinking about both.
- **Change Leadership:** If you're part of a project that is struggling with dependencies and execution speed, [this practical guide will help you identify and dismantle common "accountability shields" that degrade organizations' ability to deliver on their goals](https://www.s3t.org/aligning-to-source-of-clearest-geedbqck/).
**🎧** [**Listen to this episode on the S3T Podcast**](https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/gets3t/episodes/S3T-Jan-5--2024---Common-themes-from-the-top-2024-Outlooks--Forecasts-e2e1948?ref=s3t.org) **\-** *Be sure to follow the S3T podcast so you never miss a show!*
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed.*
---
## 🪙 Economic Key Data Points
- Latest data showing [higher consumer prices mean rate cuts might be delayed](https://www.axios.com/2024/02/29/inflation-federal-reserve-january?ref=s3t.org).
- [Consumer Confidence dropped 3.8% this month](https://www.haver.com/articles/u-s-consumer-confidence-disappoints-in-february?ref=s3t.org), reflecting a more negative outlook - only 14.8% felt that things would be better 6 months from now.
- Bitcoin passed $60K this week (its all-time high was $69K in Nov 2021) and [Bitcoin ETFs set a new record in trading volume](https://www.theblock.co/post/279209/new-bitcoin-spot-etf-trading-volume-sets-daily-record-besting-launch-day-bloomberg?ref=s3t.org). Bitcoin is [regaining its appeal as a hedge against inflation](https://www.theblock.co/post/278796/bitcoins-appeal-as-a-hedge-against-ongoing-inflationary-pressures-is-increasing-analysts-say?ref=s3t.org).
- Why [the Magnificent 7 might not be a bubble](https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3252787/why-magnificent-seven-us-tech-stocks-are-bubble-wont-burst?ref=s3t.org) \- This optimistic piece has a point worth considering: the Magnificent 7 (**Apple, Microsoft, Google parent Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms and Tesla**) are driving "structural mega trends" ...i.e., maybe their ahead of the curve and in a position to continue to reap outsize benefits.
- Smaller banks will [bear the brunt of the delinquencies on $2 Trillion in commercial real estate loan payments](https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/29/business/regional-banks-cre-exposure-explainer/index.html?ref=s3t.org) coming due.
### 🔓💰 Cybersecurity and PE
The cyber attack on [UnitedHealth's Change Healthcare](https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/change-healthcare-network-hit-by-cybersecurity-attack-2024-02-22/?ref=s3t.org) that took critical systems offline and severely disrupted healthcare operations will likely force closer examination of 2 issues:
- **The wisdom of assembling companies via acquisition when those companies manage highly sensitive healthcare data:** Change Healthcare is the product of an unusually large number of acquisition deals ([full history detailed here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Change%5FHealthcare?ref=s3t.org)). Maintaining a seamless security protections across the orgs and tech stacks of acquired companies is more challenging than most realize.
- **The responsibilities of healthcare companies to make adequate investments in security.** The current parent company [UnitedHealthcare made $22B in profit in 2023](https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucejapsen/2024/01/12/unitedhealth-group-profits-hit-23-billion-in-2023/?ref=s3t.org), yet somehow could not make sufficient security investments in its subsidiaries.
There is a difference between the thoughtful blending of complementary capabilities to better serve customers vs packaging up business units for the next bigger sale. Some - not all - deals in the history of Change Healthcare were private equity. Private equity (PE) is called out here due to widespread criticism for forcing one-sided deals where PE firms benefit at the expense of companies and their customers. Further reading for context:
- [How Private Equity Looted America](https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2022/05/private-equity-apollo-blackstone-kkr-carlyle-carried-interest-loophole/?ref=s3t.org) (Mother Jones)
- [Private Equity is Out of Control](https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/private-equity-is-out-of-control-and-looting-america-this-prosecutor-says-we-can-fix-it?ref=s3t.org) (Institute for New Economic Thinking)
- [Private Equity is Gutting America and Getting Away with It](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/28/opinion/private-equity.html?ref=s3t.org) (NYTimes)
### 🍼 Bright Spot in the Future Economy: Baby Bonds
[Connecticut is embarking on its anticipated Baby Bonds program](https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/can-baby-bonds-fight-the-wealth-gap-and-propel-racial-equality-connecticut-aims-to-find-out?ref=s3t.org), funded for the next 12 years. For each baby born the state will invest $3200\. When the baby reaches adulthood the funds can be claimed between ages 18-30 and used for education, home purchases or starting an in-state business.
💡
****For Paid Memberships**
****🌍** [****Global Economic Dashboard**](https://www.s3t.org/dashboard/) **500+ US & Intl real-time economic indicators organized by nation and release dates. Tap or click any indicator for detailed charts.*
****🪙** [****Crypto Market Caps**](https://www.s3t.org/cmc/) **Top 100 Crypto Market Prices and Indicators. Colors indicate 24hr price movement, size of boxes indicate Market Cap.*
---
## Emerging Tech
### ⚠️ US uses AI to select targets for airstrikes
AI capabilities developed by the Pentagon's Project Maven [were used to select airstrike targets in the Middle East](https://www.engadget.com/the-pentagon-used-project-maven-developed-ai-to-identify-air-strike-targets-103940709.html?ref=s3t.org). The Pentagon stressed that human operators were making final decisions. More context: [*The Political Declaration on Responsible Military Use of AI*](https://www.state.gov/political-declaration-on-responsible-military-use-of-artificial-intelligence-and-autonomy/?ref=s3t.org) attempts to build international consensus on responsible use of military AI.
### 🗳️ AI tools fail to provide accurate historical and political information
Gemini Image Generator was [disabled due to embarrassingly inappropriate imagery](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2024/2/28/24083814/google-gemini-ai-bias-ethics?ref=s3t.org). Less publicized but also impactful are findings about AI Tools tendency to provide misleading information about elections.
The [Institute for Advanced Studies](https://www.ias.edu/stsv-lab/ai-democracy-projects?ref=s3t.org) compared the top 5 AI Tools - Anthropic’s Claude, Google’s Gemini, OpenAI’s GPT-4, Meta’s Llama 2, and Mistral’s Mixtral - on their ability to provide accurate information about voting and elections. On average half of the model's answers were inaccurate.
***“Chatbots are not ready for prime time when it comes to giving important nuanced information about elections*”** Seth Bluestein, Philadelphia commissioner.
As shown below, GPT-4 performed significantly better than its peers. [The study findings](https://www.proofnews.org/seeking-election-information-dont-trust-ai/?ref=s3t.org) provide detail on why - appears that GPT-4 was trained on different data (Scroll toward the bottom of the piece for in-depth examples of how the models performed differently with specific kinds of questions).
Rates of Inaccurate answers. Image Courtesy of [ProofNews.org](https://www.proofnews.org/seeking-election-information-dont-trust-ai/?ref=s3t.org)
See also: Meta reveals plans to [prevent its AI from impacting June elections in Europe](https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-68383587?ref=s3t.org).
### 🛩️ GitHub Copilot
This week GitHub [announced "general availability" of Copilot Enterprise, GitHubs AI assistant for developers](https://techcrunch.com/2024/02/27/githubs-copilot-enterprise-hits-general-availability/?ref=s3t.org). The tool completes code and answers developer questions and is now available for $39 per month. As noted in last week's edition of S3T, a recent study suggests AI coding tools [have a negative impact on code quality and reuse](https://www.gitclear.com/coding%5Fon%5Fcopilot%5Fdata%5Fshows%5Fais%5Fdownward%5Fpressure%5Fon%5Fcode%5Fquality?ref=s3t.org).
### ❤️ Developing: Meta and LG cozy up
Multiple outlets are reporting that [Meta and LG are in partnership talks](https://www.engadget.com/meta-partners-up-with-lg-to-expedite-its-extended-reality-ventures-163251353.html?ref=s3t.org) to created “Extended Reality” consumer experiences.
---
### 💾 Lobit: floppy disk music underground
Do you miss that satisfying "weepwerp" sound when you used to slide a floppy disk into the drive? Well, you'll be happy to know [the floppy disk music is alive and well in 2024 ](https://www.theverge.com/24034551/floppy-disk-music-scene-underground-diy?ref=s3t.org)\- defying the commercialization of music on media known for its short lifespan. Check out [Discogs.com](https://www.discogs.com/search/?type=all&format=floppy&ref=s3t.org) for a good scan of what's available.
"*Floppy disks are a realm of technical extremities and some of the rarest and most collectible music in the world.*" - [Alexis Ong](https://www.theverge.com/24034551/floppy-disk-music-scene-underground-diy?ref=s3t.org)
More:
- The [future of gaming is user-generated content](https://decrypt.co/videos/interviews/Vf77nhXF/the-sandbox-co-founder-sebastien-borget-the-future-of-gaming-is-user-generated-content?ref=s3t.org).[ ](https://www.technologyreview.com/2024/01/05/1086203/whats-next-ai-regulation-2024/?ref=s3t.org)
- [AI Regulatory Outlook for 2024](https://www.technologyreview.com/2024/01/05/1086203/whats-next-ai-regulation-2024/?ref=s3t.org)
---
TIME OUT FOR REFLECTION
Photo by [Jonas Vincent](https://unsplash.com/@jonasvincentbe?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Reflection: 3 ways success and failure are similar
*Have you noticed that success and failure have some things in common?*
- Neither of them means you’re done, nor do they mean it’s time to bail out.
- They're both learning opportunities
- They’re both perfect times to say “what’s the next step?“
- We should be careful of how we assign meaning to either one of them.
### What do success and failure mean to you?
As we journey through life, it's crucial to remember that the meaning we assign to success and failure is often a reflection of our inner dialogue.
Think about these statements - and how your mind fills in the blanks:
- If I fail it will mean that I’m \_\_\_\_\_\_
- If I succeed it will mean that I’m \_\_\_\_\_\_\_
Do you harbor a belief that success is a condition for worthiness, or that failure is an affirmation of inadequacy? Most of us do. *"I can just be successful, then I’ll be good enough."* Truth is, you’re good enough now.
We need to shift our perspective. Your worth is not contingent on the highs and lows of your journey. You are enough, exactly as you are at this moment. Success or failure, neither defines your intrinsic value nor your potential.
*When I \_\_\_\_ then I’ll be worthy.* No, You have great worth *now*. Sure you'll learn and improve. But make no mistake, your worth is immense and undiminishing, right at this moment and always. It's not tied to achievements, setbacks, or the opinions of others. You possess inherent value, simply by being you.
So, as you move forward, carry this understanding with you. Let it be the compass that guides you—not towards some elusive destination of conditional self-acceptance, but along a path of recognizing your inherent worth, and continuing your learning journey, regardless of the ups and downs you experience.
---
CHANGE LEADERSHIP SKILLS: SPECIAL FEATURE FOR PAID MEMBERSHIP
## *Accountability shields* degrade your org's performance
### If you're part of a project that is struggling with dependencies and execution speed, [this practical guide will help you identify and dismantle common "accountability shields" that degrade organizations' ability to deliver on their goals](https://www.s3t.org/aligning-to-source-of-clearest-geedbqck/).
### 🧭 [Get your paid subscription and full access now](https://www.s3t.org/why/)
### S3T Feb 23, 2024 - Eco-models, Nvidia, Data Centers, AI & Tech Debt, AI+Crypto Projects, Financial Innovation
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-feb-23-2024/
Last updated: 2024-02-25T17:39:49.000Z
---
### 🍟 In this edition of S3T: Mixed signals in the economy, compute as a public good, and the flawed economic thinking that influences our decisions.
- **Economic & Finance:** Mixed signals: US economic numbers and market hype stay elevated amid signs of slower growth and spending later in 2024\. The middle class is harder to attain, and wealth inequality has imposed a staggering cost. Design notes for the next economy.
- **Emerging Tech:** Should compute be thought of - and regulated - as a public good? New research shows AI coding tools will likely spawn a new era of monstrous technical debt. Tracking AI Crypto projects.
- **Change Leadership:** Economics is not *how things work*, but rather how those in control *want you to think* things work. A framework for ensuring that our decisions aren't achieving the opposite of the outcomes we say we are working toward.
**🎧** [**Listen to this episode on the S3T Podcast**](https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/gets3t/episodes/S3T-Jan-5--2024---Common-themes-from-the-top-2024-Outlooks--Forecasts-e2e1948?ref=s3t.org) **\-** *Be sure to follow the S3T podcast so you never miss a show!*
---
Hi, Ralph here. I write S3T to help change leaders stay ahead of the curve and increase their impact. Each edition brings you the top need-to-know developments in emerging tech and finance, followed by change leadership skills and insights you can put into action to increase your influence and traction to key outcomes.
Some recent learning that puts S3T subscribers ahead of their peers and competitors:
- This bias stops teams from their biggest wins; how to overcome it.
- How to break strategic goals down into - not tasks - but *learning steps*
- Smart change leaders use this strategy from the hospitality industry to get people to embrace change.
If you aren't a subscriber sign up here today. Select the paid option for exclusive analysis and full access to the S3T learning paths and content. Select the free option for limited but high value content and previews of paid content.
---
## Economic Outlook
In the US more [strong economic numbers are expected next week](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-street-is-bracing-for-more-strong-u-s-economic-and-inflation-data-next-week-6d68b27d?ref=s3t.org), but as [noted by Fed Vice Chair Jefferson](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/jefferson20240222a.htm) some indicators suggest slower growth and spending in 2024\. **Job openings slid downward** in January:
Chart courtesy of [Haver Analytics](https://www.haver.com/?ref=s3t.org)
Nvidia's higher than expected earnings news sparked [new AI FOMO](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-brings-new-life-to-fomo-ai-trade-stock-market-rally-175914159.html?guccounter=1&guce%5Freferrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce%5Freferrer%5Fsig=AQAAACAXjESmpOCwrqFgjecW0O5RumOtYYKScLhL9aCubDx0M6XbJvDT2eoqkJMKG61STlhlbflx0PmJbgBPjdeHG8LniLc6wdCpXtzGinHpHZ3ONjW2SlhB2OI9X-Bm%5FsvH9N-hv%5FZtH-7ZMd1u9wo2EmXT44Tr1vlAeFkxM2GYrKgE&ref=s3t.org) and market hype - as well as [expectations of a pullback](https://www.investors.com/news/nvidia-stock-climax-run-when-to-sell/?ref=s3t.org). AI initiatives are driving demand for a new generation of AI chips, along with expected data center growth, [as noted recently by McKinsey](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/technology-media-and-telecommunications/our-insights/investing-in-the-rising-data-center-economy?ref=s3t.org) (see below).
"*We think the world is going to need a lot more AI compute, and it's not just semiconductors*." - [Sam Altman](https://www.axios.com/2024/02/22/intel-nvidia-ai-chips-manufacturing?ref=s3t.org)
Ethereum hits $3K this week - [first time since 2022](https://cointelegraph.com/news/ethereum-eth-price-hits-3k-for-the-first-time-since-2022?ref=s3t.org). Bitcoin ETF [adoption continues to grow](https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-etf-volumes-spike?ref=s3t.org). Related: [3 theories about Bitcoin demand and supply shocks](https://beincrypto.com/theories-explain-bitcoin-supply-shock/?ref=s3t.org).
### The Case for Financial Innovation - 3 Reads
Reads like the following - arcane buzzkills all - are the design notes for the next version of the economy.
- In spite of the apparently positive headlines, it's[ getting harder to attain the status and financial security of the middle class](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/02/15/middle-class-financial-security?ref=s3t.org).
- The upward distribution of wealth - from lower and middle classes to highest wealth classes has [cost Americans a staggering $50 Trillion](https://time.com/5888024/50-trillion-income-inequality-america/?ref=s3t.org).
- [What Was Capitalism?](https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/capitalism-turning-feudal-or-fatuous-by-james-livingston-2024-02?ref=s3t.org) asks James Livingston in this retrospective of the 2008-09 economic crisis and the 2020-21 pandemic and how these events signaled the decline of western capitalism. Livingston includes a brief scan of the thinkers and activists who had their doubts about capitalism.
[What Was Capitalism? | by James Livingston - Project SyndicateJames Livingston asks whether those at the commanding heights of today’s economy are steering us toward feudalism or fatuousness.Project SyndicateJames Livingston](https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/capitalism-turning-feudal-or-fatuous-by-james-livingston-2024-02?ref=s3t.org)
---
## Emerging Tech
### Gemini & White House AI Exec Order
[The White House Exec Order on AI issued late 2023](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2023/10/30/executive-order-on-the-safe-secure-and-trustworthy-development-and-use-of-artificial-intelligence/?ref=s3t.org) mandates additional government oversight for any AI model trained with "a quantity of computing power greater than 1026 integer or floating-point operations." This [equates to 100 trillion trillion operations](https://www.pymnts.com/news/artificial-intelligence/2023/united-states-tackles-ai-frontier-models-while-uk-spearheads-supranational-safety/?ref=s3t.org), **a threshold that Gemini allegedly approaches** (GPT-4 estimated at 20 TT). Azeem Azar [worries this is setting a precedent of Governments thinking of compute as a public good](https://www.exponentialview.co/p/ev-461?utm%5Fcampaign=email-post&r=lqdh&utm%5Fsource=substack&utm%5Fmedium=email) and one that they should control access to.
### AI + Crypto Projects
Convergence of AI and blockchain: CoinGecko has a handy dashboard of crypto/web3 projects that are enabling/enabled by AI or relate to AI in some way: [https://www.coingecko.com/en/categories/artificial-intelligence](https://www.coingecko.com/en/categories/artificial-intelligence?ref=s3t.org).
### AI & Technical Debt
As organizations race to adopt AI tools into their software development process, some research suggests more caution may be in order. [GitClear's new study](https://www.gitclear.com/coding%5Fon%5Fcopilot%5Fdata%5Fshows%5Fais%5Fdownward%5Fpressure%5Fon%5Fcode%5Fquality?ref=s3t.org) finds that AI coding tools may be accelerating our ability to generate **unmaintainable** **code**.
💡
"We examine 4 years worth of data, encompassing more than 150m changed lines of code, to determine how AI Assistants influence the quality of code being written. We find a significant uptick in churn code, and a concerning decrease in code reuse." - Except from GitClear Study [**Coding on Copilot: 2023 Data Suggests Downward Pressure on Code Quality*](https://www.gitclear.com/coding%5Fon%5Fcopilot%5Fdata%5Fshows%5Fais%5Fdownward%5Fpressure%5Fon%5Fcode%5Fquality?ref=s3t.org)
MIT's Armando Solar-Lezama says AI is like a “brand new credit card here that is going to allow us to accumulate technical debt in ways we were never able to do before.”
---
Photo by [David Vives](https://unsplash.com/@davidvives?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
CHANGE LEADERSHIP PERSPECTIVES
## Understanding the Limits of Conventional Economics
### So crucial and so...fuzzy
*Economics holds a unique position: Its so impactful and crucial and yet most leaders are so fuzzy about it. The economic decisions that we make - and the mental models that govern those decisions - impact on people and their well-being.*
Unfortunately Economics is not *how things work*, but rather how those in control *want you to think* things work.
The distortions and myths we carry around in our heads, reinforced by messaging from government and corporations perpetuates a sense of helplessness in the face of urgent and ultimately solvable issues facing your customers and communities. To enable healthier wealthier communities, we must rethink the things we've been taught about wealth and economics.
### The diagnosis
Economics as we know it today is largely the product of well positioned and privileged people - a groupthink catechism of how privileged people prefer to think the world works, and how they want everyone else to believe the world works.
If inclusion, social justice, equity, are goals we hold dear, we must recognize that our own economic thinking has been shaped by the assumptions and teachings of privileged individuals who in many cases did not share such goals.
This point troubles conscientious leaders who want to their work and decisions to support beneficial outcomes.
### How do we make sure that we're making decisions that lead to the outcomes we say we want, instead of just perpetuating the same old harms?
###
We all say we want better financial access, better equity and equality, better health and wealth for everyone. *How do we make sure that we aren't working against these things?*
- What specific points require us to relearn or rethink certain parts that we’ve always assumed what assumptions do we have to overturn?
- Is there someway of learning or adopting a new framework that helps me see things differently, and make better decisions without getting lost in a whole bunch of politically polarized, jargon and falling into extremes on either side?
- When we’re making decisions, what kind of considerations do we bring into the picture so we make decisions that allow our organization to thrive but also move towards the kinds of outcomes we say we want?
- How do we do our part to help drive financial innovation and better economic outcomes for a communities and customers?
- Is there something actionable, practical and constructive that can be done?
The good news is that - while these questions don't have neat little textbook answers - *there is a path forward*. A learning path that helps us deepen our understanding and raise the awareness of others. It starts with learning how to
recognize some of the more common flawed mental models that underpin our economic thinking today. **Learning to recognize these flawed mental models is the first step** toward making decisions and setting in motion operating patterns that enable the kinds of outcomes we all say we want.
### **Flawed mental models to be on the lookout for**
Here is a short list of the conventional wisdom and assumptions that frequently guide economic decisions at both policy and organizational levels. If you are part of a team that makes decisions about pricing, access, processes, you likely have witnessed discussions where these ideas were in play.
**The "Rational Actor" myth:** Assumes individuals are rational actors solely motivated by self-interest, and will therefore always make choices that lead to the best outcomes on both an individual and a personal level. This pervasive idea ignores basic realities like:
- The human capacity for impulsive choices and buyer's regret,
- The sheer difficulty of knowing the full implications of choices in a complex global economy.
- Proximity bias which causes us to focus on narrow perceived gains while ignoring social and environmental costs.
- Information asymmetries - for example where a seller knows things a buyer doesn't, and the buyer therefore enters into a contract or purchase that *does not* lead to a good outcome.
**Trickle-Down Economics:** This theory suggests that benefits for the wealthy will eventually reach everyone, but evidence shows it often widens inequality. It sounds reasonable, but simply giving the wealthy more buying/hiring power doesn't on its own enable the free circulation address the full set of needs in an economy. It does nothing to prevent misallocations of resources.
**The Unseen Hand:** This metaphor implies a self-regulating market that optimizes outcomes, ignoring power imbalances and market failures. This thinking often (correctly) notices the inefficiency and flaws of centralized regulation, but can over-correct by assuming that the complete absence of rules or guardrails. A more balanced view will recognize the value of intentionally setting expectations and incentives with specific outcomes in mind, and then measuring progress toward those outcomes. Public and private sectors can be partners in this effort, and can be aided by our increasingly powerful data and technology capabilities (the notion of a data driven set of incentives and goals may not have been actionable in previous eras due to the lack of data and compute capacity).
**Zero-Sum Thinking:** This mindset assumes that allowing any gains for one group will always come at the expense of another group. This is frequently used by more privileged players to argue against actions that benefit less privileged players. This can be corrected by focusing on collaboration for shared prosperity.
**GDP as Progress:** This metric measures economic growth but fails to capture well-being, sustainability, or inequality. These other measures should be considered.
### **Actions to challenge these flawed mental models in our work and decisions**
1. **Challenge your assumptions:** Reflect on your own economic mental models and how they might influence your decisions.
2. **Make equity and justice the center of your team's decision making:** Explicitly consider the impact of your choices on marginalized communities and future generations.
3. **Embrace new frameworks:** Explore alternative economic models like doughnut economics or regenerative economics (links to learning resources in learning map below). This includes exploration of how you can use data to formulate your own measures for affordability, economic stresses, equality or other indicators of community health and wealth.
4. **Advocate for change:** Speak up for policies that promote inclusive prosperity and environmental sustainability. Consider inviting guest speakers or conducting case studies to deepen understanding and help people see opportunities to apply their new understanding to the problems at hand.
5. **Experiment and collaborate:** Partner with others to test innovative solutions and build a more equitable economy. Systemic change requires collective action. Encourage collaboration and advocacy efforts.
**Key point:** Recognize that each of us may have different roles to play, and may be able to have different kinds of impact.
For example, you may hold significant financial responsibilities in an organization that is risk averse or perhaps has thin margins. You may not have a lot of room to experiment or try radical new ideas. But there are things you can do: you can introduce fresh angles when discussing decisions and strategies, highlight and humanize the people who are impacted by your decisions, and encourage higher awareness among your peers. These modest steps can help generate very positive momentum and can support the more aggressive activities that others may be engaged in.
On the other hand, some of you may work in completely different settings where there is a greater appetite for innovation and tolerance for risk. You may be working with emerging technologies, AI enhanced financial engineering, or Web3 /crypto. You have the opportunity to rethink and rearrange the financial building blocks that the economy runs on. Take the opportunities you are given - whether modest or radical in scope - to make things better.
### Summarizing what you've learned
By understanding the limitations of conventional economics and prioritizing equity and inclusion, you can lead your team or organizations toward more just and sustainable outcomes. This journey requires a commitment to learning, critical examination, and the courage to challenge the status quo. Remember, this is a continuous learning journey, and your actions, however small, can contribute to positive change.
If you sum up our collective wishes and aspirations, it comes down to all of us wishing for and working toward a healthy wealthy *world*. Not just a healthy wealthy elite.
### A healthy wealthy world: the S3T point of view
A healthy wealthy world is worthwhile outcome to work toward. A problem solving mindset that learns and works toward a healthy wealthy world will achieve more good than a pessimistic mindset that retreats into despair.
A healthy planet requires healthy ecosystems - including natural, social and financial. Healthy ecosystems require healthy communities. Healthy communities require healthy individuals. These are all sets of things that work together and impact each other. We must combine our individual skills and perspectives into sets of initiatives that effectively address challenges we face, and move us toward a healthy wealthy *world*. Not just a healthy wealthy few.
Nurturing the health and wealth of individuals, communities, ecosystems and the planet is a high calling that offers an opportunity for every person's diverse gifts and talents.
### **Map for Continued Learning:**
This learning segment is a starting point. Encourage others to actively engage with the following resources and share their insights. These resources don't uniformly follow a single party line. Their problem definitions and recommendations may vary. But they all share a common willingness to challenge status quo thinking that enables economic distortions to persist.
- **For healthcare leaders:** [Moral Hazard and Healthcare](https://www.s3t.org/moral-hazard/) \- Why Moral Hazard doesn't apply in healthcare - at least not the way we think it does.
- ***"Priced Out"* by the late Uwe Reinhardt**, former professor at Princeton, advocate for healthcare affordability, and conscience driven thought leader in healthcare policy. [Summary of his life and thinking here](https://www.healthaffairs.org/content/forefront/our-moral-conscience-now-tribute-uwe-reinhardt?ref=s3t.org). | [Review of last book *Priced Out* here](https://www.statnews.com/2019/05/14/uwe-reinhardt-priced-out-lessons-health-care-costs/?ref=s3t.org) | [Used copy on Alibris](https://www.alibris.com/search/books/isbn/9780691208534?invid=17745357205&utm%5Fsource=Google&utm%5Fmedium=cpc&utm%5Fcampaign=NMPi&gad%5Fsource=1&gclid=CjwKCAiA29auBhBxEiwAnKcSqvJXljhtda2RlOlpfZpe-zEETqXXnzaCSzJ-b0zIi6B0exwfowpJoxoCzZIQAvD%5FBwE&gclsrc=aw.ds).
- **"*Capital in the Twenty-First Century*" by Thomas Piketty:** Deepen your knowledge of wealth inequality and its dynamics. [Used copy on Thriftbooks](https://www.thriftbooks.com/w/capital-in-the-twenty-first-century%5Farthur-goldhammer%5Fnick-costes/3188189/item/5591077/?utm%5Fsource=google&utm%5Fmedium=cpc&utm%5Fcampaign=pmax%5Fhigh%5Fvol%5Ffrontlist%5Funder%5F%2410&utm%5Fadgroup=&utm%5Fterm=&utm%5Fcontent=&gad%5Fsource=1&gclid=CjwKCAiA29auBhBxEiwAnKcSqjlx2I%5FM8wm5KIEutPQwGZcCutZ2vDjYKxnFIfxijsa1VXENJaoehhoCNU4QAvD%5FBwE#idiq=5591077&edition=7654666). | [Short HBR review here](https://hbr.org/2014/04/pikettys-capital-in-a-lot-less-than-696-pages?ref=s3t.org).
- **"*Doughnut Economics*" by Kate Raworth:** Guide for 21st century economists who see the need for an alternative economic model focused on social and ecological well-being. [Summary here](https://www.shortform.com/summary/doughnut-economics-summary-kate-raworth?ref=s3t.org). | [Used copy on Thriftbooks](https://www.thriftbooks.com/w/doughnut-economics-seven-ways-to-think-like-a-21st-century-economist/19410213/?utm%5Fsource=google&utm%5Fmedium=cpc&utm%5Fcampaign=us%5Fdsa%5Fgeneral&utm%5Fadgroup=&utm%5Fterm=&utm%5Fcontent=664336997195&gad%5Fsource=1&gclid=CjwKCAiA29auBhBxEiwAnKcSqk9-5-te0904Uagp6T6PPXDp-qiR0pXctp3FVehG-qJQraGPzr9HwxoCQdcQAvD%5FBwE#edition=19894216&idiq=35496240).
- **"*Designing Regenerative Cultures*" by Daniel Christian Wahl:** Learn about building regenerative economic systems. [Used copy on Abebooks](https://www.abebooks.com/servlet/BookDetailsPL?bi=31758582090&dest=usa&ref%5F=ps%5Fggl%5F17721428148&cm%5Fmmc=ggl-%5F-US%5FShopp%5FTrade%5F20to50-%5F-product%5Fid=COM9781909470774USED-%5F-keyword=&gclid=CjwKCAiA29auBhBxEiwAnKcSqkyEv-g6BS7OaXlsOv5n8R%5Fg7hV-xhcOqB%5F2Iy3WYkVhwdFhISIXExoCmMcQAvD%5FBwE&ref=s3t.org) | [Introduction to the book published by the author on Medium](https://medium.com/age-of-awareness/designing-regenerative-cultures-introduction-68a12a387983?ref=s3t.org). | [The economics of sustainability](https://designforsustainability.medium.com/sustainability-is-not-enough-we-need-regenerative-cultures-4abb3c78e68b?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=Design%20for%20sustainability%20is%2C%20ultimately,future%20for%20all%20of%20humanity%20.).
- **Website of the World Inequality Lab:** Access data and research on global wealth inequality.
---
Thank you again for reading and sharing S3T!
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed.*
### Feb 16 - Belonging, Sora, Crypto bulls, DeFi helps the USD, AI Trading, Bank stability, Vision Pro woes
URL: https://www.s3t.org/feb-16-2024/
Last updated: 2024-02-20T03:09:26.000Z
---
## Sign up for S3T Newsletter
S3T - the newsletter and learning platform for people who are leading change. Join us!
Subscribe
Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
### ❤️ In this edition of S3T:
- **Macro:** When Silicon Valley Bank and 2 other mid-size US banks suddenly failed the bailouts represent the latest chapter in systemic moral hazard, from the "too big to fail" in 2008 to now "too many to fail" in 2023\. Plus: Crypto bull market and more.
- **Emerging Tech:** Sora brings AI enabled text to video. AI trading going mainstream. AI adoption will be driven by blockchain. People are returning their Vision Pros.
- **Change Leadership:** We focus too much on trying to make people see the future. We don't spend enough time helping them see that they *have a place* in that future. What change leaders can learn from the hospitality industry.
**🎧** [**Listen to this episode on the S3T Podcast**](https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/gets3t/episodes/S3T-Jan-5--2024---Common-themes-from-the-top-2024-Outlooks--Forecasts-e2e1948?ref=s3t.org) **\-** *Be sure to follow the S3T podcast so you never miss a show!*
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed.*
---
Photo by [John Angel](https://unsplash.com/@johnangelnyc?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## 📈Macro
### Good times here again for Crypto
The [Crypto market cap is back above 2 Trillion](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-15/crypto-market-value-climbs-back-above-2-trillion-amid-btc-bitcoin-rally?ref=s3t.org). Half of that is due to Bitcoin's price breaking above $50,000 on demand from recently approved ETFs. The rising tide is also [lifting crypto stocks](https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-listed-crypto-firms-hitch-ride-with-rising-bitcoin-2024-02-14/?ref=s3t.org) and [Blackrock is rumored to be on track to acquire more BTC than Microstrategy](https://www.coinage.media/s3/blackrock-pacing-to-overtake-microstrategy-as-worlds-largest-bitcoin-holder?ref=s3t.org) by summer.
### DeFi and Stablecoins boosting the US dollar?
U.S. Federal Reserve Gov. Waller (one of seven governors on the Federal Reserve Bank board) says [crypto so far is having a positive effect on the US dollar](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/02/15/us-federal-reserve-gov-waller-says-defi-could-boost-dollars-global-strength/?ref=s3t.org). As decentralized finance (DeFi) gains adoption, the increased use of stable coins can have the effect of strengthening the dollar's dominance. Why? Stable coins for the most part hold US dollars as their reserves.
### 💰Banks: Too big to fail in 2008, Too *many* to fail in 2024
Raghuram Rajan and Viral Acharya [dig into unanswered questions lingering from the 2023 banking crisis](https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/banking-crisis-2023-contagion-was-contained-but-new-moral-hazard-from-response-by-raghuram-rajan-and-viral-acharya-2024-02?ref=s3t.org) when Silicon Valley Bank and 2 other mid-size US banks suddenly failed. Rajan and Acharya note that the bailouts represent the latest chapter in systemic moral hazard, from the "too big to fail" in 2008 to now "too many to fail" in 2023\. Rajan is author of the seminal book on India's Economic Future *Breaking the Mould.*
The authors point out the entanglement of regional lenders in the commercial real estate market correction. [One fifth of office space is empty and delinquencies are rising](https://www.investopedia.com/u-s-commercial-property-delinquency-rate-up-by-more-than-half-in-past-year-8558297?ref=s3t.org) in part due to remote work (see latest WFH Research below).
Concerns intensified recently when [NY Community Bancorp](https://link.mail.bloombergbusiness.com/click/34192073.1230849/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmxvb21iZXJnLmNvbS9uZXdzL2FydGljbGVzLzIwMjQtMDEtMzEvbmV3LXlvcmstY29tbXVuaXR5LWJhbmNvcnAtc2x1bXBzLW9uLXN1cnByaXNlLWxvc3MtZGl2aWRlbmQtY3V0P2NtcGlkPUJCRDAxMzEyNF9CSVomdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fc291cmNlPW5ld3NsZXR0ZXImdXRtX3Rlcm09MjQwMTMxJnV0bV9jYW1wYWlnbj1ibG9vbWJlcmdkYWlseQ/63c2d22b1b0c9cd7330573d3Bb6b1543f?ref=s3t.org) (which seemed stable until now) suddenly dropped 46% as investors realize that [small banks like Bancorp hold nearly 70% of commercial real estate loans](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/real-estate-pain-us-regional-banks-is-piling-up-say-investors-2024-02-12/?ref=s3t.org).
WFH Research [latest data on Remote Work updated for Feb 2024](https://wfhresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/WFHResearch%5Fupdates%5FFebuary2024.pdf?ref=s3t.org) (PDF) indicates that remote and hybrid work continue to be a reinforcing norm supported by common sense considerations of time management (reduced commute) as well as well being. The upshot for regional banks and regulators: **attempts to reverse WFH won't save commercial real estate.** The data comes from a monthly survey run jointly by the University of Chicago, ITAM, MIT, and Stanford University.
---
## 🔭Emerging Tech
### OpenAI Sora: text to video
OpenAIs latest creation, [Sora, generates photorealistic videos from a few lines of text](https://openai.com/sora?ref=s3t.org) and/or from a still photo. The process starts with a video that looks like static noise then iteratively removes the noise to create the final video.
💡
“**Sora serves as a foundation for models that can understand and simulate the real world, a capability we believe will be an important milestone for achieving AGI*.” - [OpenAI post](https://openai.com/sora?ref=s3t.org)
### AI adoption will be helped by blockchain
VanEck [sees blockchain as a critical driver for AI adoption](https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/digital-assets/matthew-sigel-vanecks-crypto-ai-revenue-predictions-by-2030/?ref=s3t.org): *"There is a significant chance that public blockchains are the key to unlocking the widespread adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) and that AI applications will be crypto’s raison d'être."*
### AI and Trading
61% of institutional traders surveyed by JPMorgan believe AI will shape the future of trading. AI bots have been around in Crypto for several years but now [traditional institutions are betting that AI can provide trade predictions and identify shifts in investor sentiment](https://cointelegraph.com/news/ai-role-trading-institutions-jpmorgan?ref=s3t.org).
### Returning those Vision Pros
Customers are [returning their Apple Vision Pro headsets](https://www.theverge.com/2024/2/14/24072792/apple-vision-pro-early-adopters-returns?ref=s3t.org), complaining about neck and eye strain as well as difficulty navigating between windows and files in the UI.
[Alexander Torrenegra](https://twitter.com/torrenegra?ref=s3t.org) on X
---
CHANGE LEADERSHIP
Photo by [Sara Dubler](https://unsplash.com/@ahungryblonde%5F?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## 🧭What the Hospitality Industry can teach Change Leaders
*We spend a lot of time talking about the resistance that we face and the people who aren’t helping and who don’t get it. We spend time learning tactics to overcome resisters, and even more time dealing with it on a day to day basis. Wouldn't it be ironic if upon closer examination, we find that maybe we’re actually contributing to that resistance?*
### One of the greatest reasons people resist change is they can't picture themselves in that future. It doesn't feel like it's theirs. They don't feel like they BELONG.
This hit home with me while listening to the book *Unreasonable Hospitality* by Will Guidara. The book chronicles the journey of the team behind 11 Madison Park, an award winning restaurant voted the best restaurant in the world. The book describes how their success was propelled by taking the art of hospitality to an extraordinary level - "unreasonable hospitality."
*Why would a book about the hospitality industry be relevant to change leadership? Because there’s a crucial lesson that innovators and change leaders need to learn from the hospitality industry.*
### Think about what the hospitality industry actually does:
Restaurants, hotels, tourism destinations are all focused on one thing: They are working very hard to help you feel a sense of belonging in a place that you've never been to. A place that otherwise might feel strange or different. They want you to feel welcome. They want you to picture yourself there.
So the hospitality industry and especially the tourism and travel industry, has learned to go all out and double down on making people feel welcome and feel a sense of belonging. Presenting a destination, and helping you picture yourself in that destination. Making you feel like you belong in that destination.
Because they know this is the deep underlying foundation for the excitement, positive vibes, and unforgettably great memories that a person could feel after visiting a destination, or restaurant or hotel. A sense of belonging. Its how you get people highly committed and passionate about going to a new place.
It is so vital to instill a sense of belonging, and it takes more work than most of us realize. The hospitality industry learned this a long time ago.
### Apply this to your work as a change leader
If you compare that to innovation and change leadership, it raises a crucial, and perhaps uncomfortable question for change leaders, innovators, and founders:
Do we work as hard at helping people feel comfortable and welcome in the future or in the new change that we’re bringing? Do we present our visions of the future as a destination that is welcoming them?
Or do we perhaps make them feel like that’s not for them? They’re not cool enough, they don’t get it.
This is the achilles heel of innovators and change leaders: all too often - without meaning to - we cause division, strife, conflict. Instead of being dividers, innovators can learn to help people feel a sense of belonging.
It's not enough to make people see or believe in some future vision. They need to *see themselves* in that future. It needs to feel like it was prepared for them. Like it's going to welcome them. Not exclude them. Not leave them behind. *They need to feel a sense of belonging.*
### The root of the problem
We focus too much on trying to make people see the future that we see. We don't spend enough time helping them see that they *have a place* in that future. That yes, they belong in that future. It's for them. It's going to benefit them ...not just you. And not just all the hip cool brave futurists like you.
When you introduce change - what you're doing is bringing a new future. You're literally inviting people to a new destination. But are we working hard enough to make people feel a sense of belonging in that new destination? Are we giving them a sense of assurance that they have a place in that future? Are we helping them picture themselves in that future?
The answer most of the time is No. We're not. Instead of creating a sense of belonging, all too often we end up creating, perhaps inadvertently - division.
We signal that there are two groups:
- the group that is hip to the future, and
- the group that isn't
In our language, our interactions and even the way we hold meetings, present our ideas and propose our plans, we let everyone know that there's an in crowd and then there’s the group that doesn’t get it. They’re not cool. They’re so yesterday.
We spend a lot of time talking about the resistance that we face and the people who aren’t helping and who don’t get it. We spend time learning tactics to overcome resisters, and even more time dealing with it on a day to day basis.
*Wouldn't it be ironic if upon closer examination, we find that maybe we’re actually contributing to that resistance?*
That we weren’t thinking and working hard enough about how to make people feel welcome in what's coming? That new org structure, the new process, new platforms, new financial models - whatever changes we're working to bring, we need to make sure people feel a sense of belonging in that new situation.
So how do we take a *hospitality approach* to change leadership?
###
Photo by [Albert](https://unsplash.com/@picturesbyalbert?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T Feb 9 2024 - Gemini, EU AI Act, Buterin on AI & Crypto, The Line, Feeder Fights, Empathy in Action
URL: https://www.s3t.org/feb-9/
Last updated: 2024-02-13T01:52:21.000Z
---
## Sign up for S3T Newsletter
S3T - the newsletter and learning platform for change leaders. Join us!
Subscribe
Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup.
No spam. No Cookies. No Ads. Unsubscribe anytime.
### 😎️ In this edition of S3T:
- **Emerging Tech:** Bye Bye Bard, hello Gemini; how AI and Crypto will likely intersect; what the new EU regulations mean for AI.
- **The Future of Urban Design:** This ambitious desert city project could offer a new blueprint for ending urban sprawl and enabling more equitable access to nature.
- **Nature Notes:** Fights at the Bird Feeder. Scientists - with the help of citizen observers - figure out which species win the most.
- **Change Leadership:** Empathy is not just noticing the hardships of others; it's the courage to do something about it. *Learn how to adopt and model a specific style of empathy that compels action and mobilizes people to drive change.*
**🎧** [**Listen to this episode on the S3T Podcast**](https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/gets3t/episodes/S3T-Jan-5--2024---Common-themes-from-the-top-2024-Outlooks--Forecasts-e2e1948?ref=s3t.org) **\-** *Be sure to follow the S3T podcast so you never miss a show!*
---
## Emerging Tech: Bye Bye Bard!
[Splash screen announcing Gemini courtesy of Google ](https://gemini.google.com/?ref=s3t.org)
### Google Gemini replaces Bard
Try Gemini at [gemini.google.com](https://gemini.google.com/?ref=s3t.org). Gemini represents [Google's most powerful answer to ChatGPT](https://blog.google/products/gemini/bard-gemini-advanced-app/?ref=s3t.org) to date. includes a web interface and a mobile app. It will soon be integrated with Gmail and other Google apps including the IOS Google App, also offers an [AI model that you can integrate into apps via API](https://ai.google.dev/?ref=s3t.org). More [details for developers here](https://blog.google/technology/ai/gemini-api-developers-cloud/?ref=s3t.org).
This in-depth [comparison of Gemini vs ChatGPT](https://www.techrepublic.com/article/google-gemini-vs-chatgpt/?ref=s3t.org) suggests that Gemini may be a formidable competitor to ChatGPT and recommends that leaders experiment with both. Ethan Mollick's [comparative review ](https://www.oneusefulthing.org/p/google-gemini-advanced-tasting-notes?ref=s3t.org)says Gemini "does not obviously blow away GPT-4\. and actually underperforms GPT-4 in the so called "apple test" (asking the chatbot to write 10 sentences that end with the word "apple".)
### Buterin on AI and Blockchain
*In previous S3T Editions we've noted an emerging theme of AI + Blockchain convergence. Ethereum lead Vitalik Buterin has just amplified this theme in a longer thought piece on how AI and Blockchain could intersect.*
Buterin shares [four ideas on how AI and Blockchain will converge](https://beincrypto.com/vitalik-buterin-four-ai-crypto-ideas/?ref=s3t.org) in this [highly recommended post](https://vitalik.eth.limo/general/2024/01/30/cryptoai.html?ref=s3t.org). These 4 ideas he says is an evolution of his previous superficial thoughts that "crypto decentralization can [balance out AI centralization](https://im0xalpha.notion.site/AI-to-the-Left-Crypto-to-the-Right-914c101cfc314659a18dbbabc89d152b?ref=s3t.org), AI is opaque and crypto brings transparency, AI needs data and blockchains are good for storing and tracking data."
Now, Buterin notes, AI's new generation of more powerful LLMs, and crypto's recent innovations in scaling, zero knowledge proofs (ZKPs) and multi-party computation (MPC) together open up 4 new ways that blockchain and AI will intersect, listed in order of level of difficulty & risk:
- AI as a player in a game
- AI as an interface to the game
- AI as the rules of the game
- AI as the objective of the game
Buterin provides in depth explanation of how each could work, in some cases with examples, as well as notes on implementation methods and risks. Great read.
---
### EU AI Act
EU member nations [voted unanimously to move forward in adopting the Artificial Intelligence Act](https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/making-europe-best-place-start-ups-trustworthy-ai-thierry-breton-ljjic/?ref=s3t.org). The Act includes a list of prohibitions banning the use of AI for specific purposes, as well as a list of criteria requiring certain AI products to be listed as "high-risk".
France resisted until the 11th hour [in hopes of protecting its own AI businesses](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2024/02/03/france-agrees-to-ratify-the-eu-artificial-intelligence-act-after-seven-months-of-opposition%5F6489701%5F19.html?ref=s3t.org). A [compromise agreement](https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-5662-2024-INIT/en/pdf?ref=s3t.org) amended several portions of the rules.
I've noticed that the EU, the US and China have struck fairly different tones in technology usage and rule-making:
- EU - People First
- China - State First
- US - Corporation First
There are exceptions but the tendencies appears consistent. Going forward, it will be interesting to see what kind of thinking the UK brings to the discussion, and how the EU's rules impact rule-making elsewhere.
---
## Urban Design
As noted in the Urban Design and Future of Real Estate S3T Panorama, one of the **key open challenges for the future is how cities will minimize their environmental impact while providing more equitable quality of life for residents.**
One new candidate solution for that challenge is "The Line" an ambitious smart city concept that is a cornerstone of [Saudi Arabia's 2030 vision](https://www.vision2030.gov.sa/?ref=s3t.org) to remake itself and lessen its dependence on fossil fuels. The city will be arranged in a 106 mile line, house 9 million residents, have no cars, no carbon emissions, and renewable water and energy.
**Special Features**
🔐 [Paying members can read a deeper dive on criticisms of the city's linear design](https://www.s3t.org/the-line-a-new-approach/), as well as the counterintuitive ways the non-sprawl linear design may achieve conservation and equity goals more effectively than current city layouts.
🔐 [S3T Panorama on the Future of Urban Design and Real Estate](https://www.s3t.org/s3t-panorama-future-of-real-estate/)
Also: Women now own the majority [of US homes](https://news.join1440.com/t/j-l-sdtuhhl-ittttjjhuh-ii/?ref=s3t.org).
---
Photo by [Lasse Nystedt](https://unsplash.com/@lassenystedtfoto?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Nature Notes: Feeder Fights
If you have a bird feeder you may have noticed occasional rivalries and scuffles between different birds over who gets to eat first. Scientists have taken a data driven approach - ranking the competitive abilities of 136 species based on 7,653 observations gathered through Project Feederwatch - to determine which birds win most often. See how your favorites stack up in [this fascinating interactive feature from Cornell](https://www.allaboutbirds.org/news/when-136-bird-species-show-up-at-a-feeder-which-one-wins?ref=s3t.org).
This set of findings is a great example of the value of Citizen Science - engaging community members to help gather or process observation data and contribute to findings. Prior to Project Feederwatch, scientists had only been able to work out dominance hierarchies for a few species (and that took decades).
---
Photo by [Dan Meyers](https://unsplash.com/@dmey503?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
CHANGE LEADERSHIP
## **Accountable leadership turns empathy into action**
*Inspire Change by Cultivating Empathy within Yourself and Others* 🌟
### **The Urgency of Change**
If you ask almost anyone in these industries about "what needs to change" they'll tell you roughly the same list. If you were to ask them why the change is needed, they could point you to adverse impacts being felt by customers, patients, healthcare workers, farm workers, vulnerable populations etc. If you asked how urgent this is, they would indicate its urgent. So why isn't it happening or why isn't it happening faster?
In every industry, from healthcare to finance, there's a universal list of necessary changes. The problems are well-known, and their adverse impacts are felt by customers, patients, and workers across the board. The urgency is palpable, yet why does change often seem elusive?
### **The Perceived Barrier to Change**
We all acknowledge the need for change, but in our minds, it's never the right time. It feels impossible or overwhelming, buried beneath a mountain of daily tasks. The result? Glaring problems persist, causing harm for longer than they should.
## **The Missing Ingredient: Empathy**
So, what's the missing piece of the puzzle? It's empathy. Now, most leaders will say, I have empathy. But let's first make sure that we have the right view of what empathy really is.
### First, double-check your understanding of empathy
*Why it's imperative to revisit our understanding of empathy.*
Our thinking about leadership often has a misconception that equates empathy with emotional vulnerability or a kind of excessive sensitivity. And we think that detract from objective decision-making.
Think about these statements:
- "We're going to have to make some difficult decisions"
- "We need to set clear priorities"
- "We have to be realistic"
- "We have to be practical"
These statements sound right. And in some contexts they are. But if we're using these statements to turn a blind eye and avoid empathy, then we're making a serious mistake.
Empathy is not an emotional element that has to be overlooked or ignored in the name of realism or practicality or leadership making difficult decisions.
Beware of false tradeoffs. In this case a false trade off of strengths versus weakness:
- Weakness equals being empathetic, and overly influenced by concerned for others
- Strength equals ability to grit your teeth and “make a difficult decision."
This kind of trade false trade plays itself out in many many many private leadership discussions, where more transparency is needed.
This view mistakenly equates practical leadership with a disregard for empathy, suggesting that tough decisions necessitate a cold detachment from the concerns and well-being of others. These false tradeoffs allow harmful status quo conditions to persist under the guise of practicality or necessity.
So what does that mean for leaders?
### Empathy that doesn't result in action isn't real empathy
**Empathy is not just noticing the hardships of others; it's the courage to do something about it.** The courage to take a different course and find a better way. The courage to take responsibility, to challenge the status quo and make things better. And the resolve to mobilize others to act as well.
Empathy without courageous action isn't empathy. It's just a momentary pang of conscience that you decide to ignore.
True leadership empathy involves integrating this awareness into actionable strategies that address the needs and concerns of those around us. It's about moving beyond a superficial acknowledgment of others' situations to fostering a culture where empathy drives innovation and positive change.
***So how do we do that?***
## How to use Empathy to effectively drive change
To drive change effectively, you must do the following 5 steps:
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T Feb 2, 2024- AggLayers, DePIN, Biohybrid Robots, Jobs, Buffalo Women, Learning Steps
URL: https://www.s3t.org/feb-2-2024/
Last updated: 2024-02-06T12:41:40.000Z
*Welcome and thank you for reading and sharing S3T. I'm fascinated by the *emerging discipline of change leadership* and what good things happen when we help people master the change leadership *skillset*. Each week I share the latest insights and essential perspectives via the S3T newsletter & podcast to empower your journey as a change-maker. I hope this edition gives you max value in the coming week! Thank you! --Ralph Perrine*
## Sign up for the S3T Newsletter
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Subscribe
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---
### 😎️ In this edition of S3T:
- **Macro Indicators:** Job numbers sound good. But do they mean what we think they mean? Healthcare Finance: Its time to abandon moral hazard. Plus: Big Mac Index.
- **Emerging Tech:** Don't mention GenAI on earnings calls. China's AI Governance process. Decentralized Physical Infrastructure will bring AI and Web3 together.
- **Nature Notes:** Women like Molly Goodnight were at the forefront of saving buffalo from extinction.
- **Change Leadership:** We've been taught to break goals into manageable steps or tasks. It's time to shift our perspective and **learn how to break goals down into *learning steps*.**
**🎧** [**Listen to this episode on the S3T Podcast**](https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/gets3t/episodes/S3T-Jan-5--2024---Common-themes-from-the-top-2024-Outlooks--Forecasts-e2e1948?ref=s3t.org) **\-** *Be sure to follow the S3T podcast so you never miss a show!*
---
## 📉Macro Indicators
### Job Numbers might not mean what we think they mean
If you've been following the headlines, you might have the sense that things are pretty positive in the job market and the economy overall. The numbers sound good. But do they mean what we think they mean?
[Layoffs.fyi](https://layoffs.fyi/?ref=s3t.org) is reporting that 29,475 people at 107 tech companies ([including crypto firms](https://techcrunch.com/2024/02/01/polygon-labs-lays-off-60-employees-about-19-of-its-staff-ceo-says/amp/?ref=s3t.org) btw) were laid off in January 2024\. [Mondo's figures](https://mondo.com/insights/mass-layoffs-in-2022-whats-next-for-employees/?ref=s3t.org#mass-layoffs-2024) (updated for 2024) suggest the trend isn't limited to tech. CFO Dive reports that [40% of Tech CFOs expect layoffs in 2024, but only 14% expect to reduce overall headcount](https://www.cfodive.com/news/big-tech-2024-flurry-job-cuts-AI-cfo-trends/705957/?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=Amazon%2C%20Microsoft%2C%20Google%2C%20Salesforce,website%20that%20tracks%20such%20data.).
So its natural to wonder, if there are so many layoffs, why do the job numbers seem so positive? A few possible factors:
- [Kobeissi Letter](https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1751692616662409285?ref=s3t.org): "Currently, the US has a record \~8.6 MILLION people that are holding 2 or more jobs...10 of the last 11 months have seen downward revisions in their jobs number."
- [Haver Analytics](https://www.haver.com/articles/who-m-do-you-trust-the-bls-or-the-ism?ref=s3t.org). Startup launches and shutdowns may be skewing job numbers due the Bureau of Labor's reliance on the "Birth-Death" model based on the history of business births and deaths.
- Workers are inconsistently impacted by [different recovery economics playing out in different regions](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/30/why-positive-labor-market-data-feels-awful-for-workers-job-seekers.html?ref=s3t.org).
If you are innovating new products or new pricing models, it can be especially helpful to look at what is going on on a more fine grain level in your specific target markets rather than relying on headline economics numbers.
### 🩺 Healthcare Finance
*"Shifting expenses to the patient...causes them to abandon their medicine, jeopardizing their health and ultimately impacting their quality of life."* [writes Donna Sabatino](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/654971-donna-sabatino-florida-can-decrease-patient-costs-for-medications/?ref=s3t.org), Policy Director for the AIDS Institute in a new piece advocating for reform of health insurance accumulator policy. Her perspective runs counter to the traditional "moral hazard" thinking that pervades insurance. In the case of healthcare, [moral hazard is not a useful way to think about patient economics and incentives](https://www.s3t.org/moral-hazard/).
Accumulators, Prior Auth and other capital control measures are vestiges of the earlier era of exclusionary underwriting. The math of healthcare has changed. Its laws and values have also changed. The financial model and platforms are still catching up. For a deeper dive - [Recommended Learning Path for Healthcare Change Leaders](https://www.s3t.org/learning-path-for-healthcare-leaders/)
### 🍔 The Big Mac Index
The [cost of a Big Mac in different countries](https://www.economist.com/big-mac-index?ref=s3t.org) may suggest things about the relative valuations (over valuations and under valuations) of international fiat currencies.
---
## 🥽Emerging Tech
### VR/AR Headsets
Apple‘s new headset [Vision Pro goes on sale today](https://www.apple.com/apple-vision-pro/?ref=s3t.org) 2/2\. The [debate has already begun](https://staceyoniot.com/love-it-or-hate-it-the-apple-vision-pro-is-a-game-changer/amp/?ref=s3t.org) over whether this $3500 device will truly be a game changer or just an expensive way to turn into a hermit.
### Blockchain Evolution: Polygon's Aggregate Concept
Polygon is launching an “aggregated blockchain” concept this month which it positions as the next logical evolution in blockchain design: ie monolithic --> modular --> aggregated.
- Monolithic blockchains - Bitcoin, Ethereum (prior to its data sharding rollout)
- Modular blockchains - Cosmos, Aptos, Celestia
- Aggregated blockchains - Polygon AggLayer
[Dubbed AggLayer v1 mainnet](https://polygon.technology/blog/aggregated-blockchains-a-new-thesis?ref=s3t.org), the new chain represents a step forward in the ongoing work to solve limitations in current blockchain architectures.
The play would potentially improve scalability and resolve liquidity fragmentation by blending the best of monolithic and modular chains:
- Aggregate zero-knowledge proofs from all other connected chains
- Enable cross chain transactions that are nearly instant and secure.
**Further reading:**
- [Full documentation of Polygon AggLayer here](https://docs.polygon.technology/learn/agglayer/?ref=s3t.org).
- [How modular blockchains are an improvement over monolithic](https://volt.capital/blog/modular-blockchains?ref=s3t.org).
[Aggregated Blockchains: A New ThesisAggLayer v1 mainnet coming in February.Polygon LabsJanuary 24, 2024.png)](https://bankless.ghost.io/r/3f938cda?m=e8427362-91a7-47aa-a8c9-0897c2f287dd&ref=s3t.org)
### DePIN: Decentralized Physical Infrastructure
[AI, Web3 and DePIN will work together to enable new kinds of internet experiences](https://www.coindesk.com/consensus-magazine/2024/01/29/how-ai-and-depin-will-change-web3/?ref=s3t.org) says LexSokolin, founder of Generative Ventures, and the fomer Global Fintech Co-Head at blockchain firm Consensys.
### Let's not mention AI
[Azeem Azhar's notes from Davos](https://www.exponentialview.co/p/notes-from-a-ski-resort-2024-edition?ref=s3t.org) mentions continued c-suite fascination with GenAI: they're taking it seriously he notes, but not “mention it on earnings calls seriously.” Telling.
Government approved LLMs: [China has approved 40+ LLMs](https://www.reuters.com/technology/china-approves-over-40-ai-models-public-use-past-six-months-2024-01-29/?ref=s3t.org) for public use via its official approval process launched in Aug 2023\.
### 🤖Biohybrid Robots
Researchers at the University of Tokyo have successfully demonstrated a [biohybrid robot that can move via live lab grown muscle tissues](https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1031750?ref=s3t.org) triggered by electrical pulses. While the initial demonstration was limited and slow, the robot was able to walk and pivot.
This suggests that future robots can be soft and flexible in contrast to the shiny plastic or metallic hard shell designs seen thus far.
---
Photo by [Alyssa Best](https://unsplash.com/@alyssa%5Fbest?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Nature Notes: Buffalo Women
*“I cannot think of much of anything but the possibility of doing something great with the buffaloes for humanity. My dream…\[is\] a home for my little pets…\[to\] let them roam at will with plenty of room for a long time.”*
\-Molly Goodnight
Many people don't realize this but, women like Molly Goodnight were at the forefront of saving buffalo from extinction. To learn about how these primeval majestic creatures were brought back from the brink, you can read ["*Blood Memory*" by Ken Burns](https://www.thriftbooks.com/w/blood-memory-the-tragic-decline-and-improbable-resurrection-of-the-american-buffalo%5Fken-burns%5Fdayton-duncan/38233161/item/55566908/?utm%5Fsource=google&utm%5Fmedium=cpc&utm%5Fcampaign=shopping%5Feverything%5Felse&utm%5Fadgroup=&utm%5Fterm=&utm%5Fcontent=509967659940&gad%5Fsource=1&gclid=Cj0KCQiAn-2tBhDVARIsAGmStVnpUgXoqYw-3FZkeVi9PWrGf1v-zRPwBD1TkZOp4rwAMF1xxUy2kbIaAt8KEALw%5FwcB#idiq=55566908&edition=66151767), or watch the [Ken Burn's documentary on the same topic](https://www.pbs.org/kenburns/the-american-buffalo/?ref=s3t.org).
Here is one of a number of [biographical profiles of Molly Goodnight](https://www.tshaonline.org/handbook/entries/goodnight-mary-ann-dyer-molly?ref=s3t.org) from the Texas State Historical Association. And [another which shares how Goodnight established the Goodnight herd of buffalo](https://tpwmagazine.com/archive/2020/may/wildwomen/index.phtml?ref=s3t.org) by rescuing buffalo calves.
---
Photo by [Yusuf Evli](https://unsplash.com/@yusufevli?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
CHANGE LEADERSHIP
## **⚡Unlocking Your Potential: The Power of *Learning Steps***
*Discover the Key to Accelerating Your Goal Achievement*
### **The Learning Step Advantage**
Change leaders see needs and set goals with passion. We want so badly to make good things happen. Unfortunately, when we set out to achieve a worthy goal, we often focus on breaking it down into **tasks**. But if you think about it, achieving goals - especially goals that result in meaningful impact - usually is not just a matter of doing some tasks. There's a game-changing approach that can fast-track your progress: It's time to shift our perspective and **learn how to break goals down into *learning steps*.**
### **Redefining Goal Breakdown**
Traditionally, we've been taught to break goals into manageable steps or tasks. However, there's a subtle but profound tweak that can revolutionize your approach. **Instead of asking, "What do I need to do?" start by asking,**
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### 🤖S3T Jan 26, 2024 - Wages vs Inflation, Medical Debt, Social Robots, Nano motors, Water Bears, Bias for Knowns...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/jan-26-2024/
Last updated: 2024-01-27T18:29:47.000Z
---
## Sign up for S3T Newsletter
S3T - the newsletter and learning platform for people who are leading change. Join us!
Subscribe
Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
**In this edition:**
- **Macro:** You may have noticed a recent meme about wages growing faster than inflation. Real? or Transitory? Plus:Medical Debt.
- **Emerging Tech:** Democratizing AI, Nanoscale Turbines, Social Robots - Helping those with Dementia. AI and Digital Twins.
- **Nature Notes:** Researchers have just discovered how Tardigrades - the ultimate survivors - enter and exit dormancy.
- **Change Leadership:** This bias stops teams from their biggest wins: how to overcome it.
🔊 [Listen to this edition on the S3T Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org) (and forward to a friend!)
---
*I'm fascinated by the *emerging discipline of change leadership* and what good things happen when we help people master the change leadership *skillset*. Each week I share the latest insights and essential perspectives via the S3T newsletter & podcast to empower your journey as a change-maker. I hope this edition gives you max value in the coming week! Thank you! --Ralph Perrine*
---
## ⛵ Macro: Rough seas and smooth sailing
[India now has the 4th largest equity market in the world](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-23/india-overtakes-hong-kong-as-world-s-fourth-largest-stock-market?ref=s3t.org), overtaking Hong Kong as [investors sour on Chinese companies](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/china-economy-chinese-stock-market-foreign-investor-cash-flow-money-2023-12?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=The%20investor%20exodus%20has%20largely,debts%2C%20and%20buckling%20consumer%20demand.). China is [off to a very rough start in 2024](https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/1750166160010530881?s=46&t=GoPAAwUSN6sNrDA2LhP96Q&ref=s3t.org).
Global markets are monitoring the [potential price and inflation impacts of Houthi attacks](https://www.csis.org/analysis/global-economic-consequences-attacks-red-sea-shipping-lanes?ref=s3t.org) on merchant ships.
In the US, final economic data from 2023 was [released this week with better than expected GDP](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-fourth-quarter-economic-growth-handily-beats-expectations-2024-01-25/?ref=s3t.org) 3.3% for Q4 and [3.1% for 2023 overall](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/25/biden-administration-economic-growth-inflation-decrease-00137777?ref=s3t.org). But experienced investors worry the S&P 500 is overheating - some use the phrase “[irrational exuberance](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-24/ed-yardeni-is-getting-nervous-about-the-speed-of-s-p-500-s-rally?embedded-checkout=true&ref=s3t.org)” and see a [possible correction](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/elite-investor-jeremy-grantham-warned-204006221.html?ref=s3t.org) coming, with eerie [similarities to the last correction](https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-bubble-2008-recession-sp500-prediction-david-rosenberg-2024-1?ref=s3t.org).
### Wages beating inflation? Real or ....Transitory?
You may have noticed a recent meme about wages growing faster than inflation. This circulated back in the summer of 2023 ([here](https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/for-the-first-time-in-2-years-pay-is-growing-faster-than-prices/?ref=s3t.org) and [here](https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/07/16/economy/real-wage-gains-inflation/index.html?ref=s3t.org)), but is being pushed hard here at the beginning of this election year (papers, news headlines, airport tv monitors).
So are wages really beating inflation? [This chart](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1351276/wage-growth-vs-inflation-us/?ref=s3t.org) helps put it into perspective:
[](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1351276/wage-growth-vs-inflation-us/?ref=s3t.org)
Find more statistics at [Statista](https://www.statista.com/?ref=s3t.org)
If you look at the period between March-November 2023 you could argue that wages were rising while inflation was coming down (as pandemic supply chain shocks began to subside). But it's harder to argue that if you look at the entire chart and pretty much impossible to make that argument if you look back even further.
So while it is welcome news that wages are - for now - rising faster than inflation there are a few key balancing factors:
- As noted in previous S3T editions, federal inflation tracking is artificially narrow and doesn't reflect the full impact on workers and families.
- The long-term impact of monetary devaluation and inflation combined with income inequality is still being felt by many. See Medical Debt segment below.
This is welcome progress. But what happens from here on is what's important. In some ways, the upcoming election will be a test of whether we are starting to effectively address economic inequality or not.
**Recommended Reading:**
- The progression of income equality at [realtimeinequality.org](https://realtimeinequality.org/?ref=s3t.org) with supporting data and excellent interactive charts. A labor of love by [Thomas Blanchet](https://thomasblanchet.fr/?ref=s3t.org), [Emmanuel Saez](https://eml.berkeley.edu/~saez/?ref=s3t.org), [Gabriel Zucman](https://gabriel-zucman.eu/?ref=s3t.org).
- [Chart Book: Tracking the Recovery From the Pandemic Recession](https://www.cbpp.org/research/economy/tracking-the-recovery-from-the-pandemic-recession?ref=s3t.org)
### Healthcare - Medical Debt
NY Mayor Eric Adams announced a partnership with [RIP Medical Debt](https://ripmedicaldebt.org/?ref=s3t.org) that will [cancel $2 billion with of medical debt for 500,000 residents](https://www.nyc.gov/office-of-the-mayor/news/062-24/mayor-adams-relieve-2-billion-medical-debt-hundreds-thousands-working-class?ref=s3t.org#/0). Medical bankruptcies continue to be a crisis problem in the US.
- [58% of debt in collections](https://www.texastribune.org/2022/06/16/americans-medical-debt/?ref=s3t.org) is for medical bills.
- [1 in 3 Americans have medical debt](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/04/11/fact-sheet-the-biden-administration-announces-new-actions-to-lessen-the-burden-of-medical-debt-and-increase-consumer-protection/?ref=s3t.org).
- [Medical debt is the leading cause of bankruptcy](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/11/this-is-the-real-reason-most-americans-file-for-bankruptcy.html?ref=s3t.org) in the United States.
Interestingly the ACA [does not seem to have impacted the number of medical bankrupties](https://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/full/10.2105/AJPH.2018.304901?role=tab&ref=s3t.org). In fact, after the law's passing, bankruptcies rose from 65% to 67%.
Time magazine put together a [helpful explainer on what happens when medical debt gets handed over to a collections agency](https://time.com/personal-finance/article/what-happens-when-medical-bills-go-to-collection/?ref=s3t.org) (and best ways to protect or restore your credit and finances).
---
## Emerging Tech
### Nano Turbine
A team of researchers from 3 universities has built [the world's first working nanoscale motor](https://tacc.utexas.edu/news/latest-news/2024/01/19/dna-origami-folded-into-tiny-motor?ref=s3t.org): an impossibly tiny turbine capable of rotating at up to a billion rotations per minute. The innovation has potential applications in healthcare - for example, versions of this motor would be small enough to travel in a bloodstream and look for and perhaps resolve anomalies.
### Democratizing AI
This week the National Science Foundation launched the [National Artificial Intelligence Research Resource](https://new.nsf.gov/news/democratizing-future-ai-rd-nsf-launch-national-ai?ref=s3t.org) a pilot partnership of 10 federal agencies and 25 private sector and nonprofit orgs in a bid to give researchers and schools better access to AI infrastructure and tools. The initiative intends to enable access to training, user support and datasets as well as computing and software.
### Social Robots - Helping those with Dementia.
A study in Italy is gathering data on how dementia patients in a care center respond or benefit from a small robot that looks like a seal ([detailed study plan here](https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2023.1141460/full?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=Social%20robots%20have%20also%20been,or%20be%20used%20in%20therapy)). The study [began in 2022 and wraps up this March](https://classic.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05626205?ref=s3t.org).
Further reading
- [NIH research summary here. ](https://researchoutreach.org/articles/social-robots-new-perspective-healthcare/?ref=s3t.org)
- [Social Robots in Healthcare](https://researchoutreach.org/articles/social-robots-new-perspective-healthcare/?ref=s3t.org)
### AI and Digital Twins
Pharma hopes AI-based simulations and AI enhanced ”digital twins” [will help them streamline clinical trials](https://www.cbinsights.com/research/ai-powered-simulations-clinical-trials/?utm%5Fsource=CB+Insights+Newsletter&utm%5Fcampaign=0bbcd26440-newsletter%5Fgeneral%5Fweds%5F2024%5F01%5F24&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fterm=0%5F9dc0513989-0bbcd26440-98228941). Key question: will virtual clinical trials prove to be an accurate safe way to learn how real humans will respond to a treatment?
---
ICYMI: Electric Capitals [Crypto Developer Report](https://www.developerreport.com/developer-report?ref=s3t.org) (181 slides!) based on analysis of code repositories. Developers (and what they are choosing to spend their time on) are a leading indicator of value creation. Highlights were shared in last week’s edition of S3T.
---
## 🌄 Nature Notes
*How to increase your appreciation of the treasures of the natural world, and nurture its capabilities.*
DALLe image - Tardigrade orbiting the earth in space
### How Water Bears survive anything
Researchers have long known that Tardigrades - aka "Water Bears" **shut down to survive** \- they go into a dormant state which allows them to survive extremely hostile environments no other living things can survive - [including outer space](https://www.nasa.gov/podcasts/houston-we-have-a-podcast/water-bears-in-space/?ref=s3t.org)!
But researchers never understood what exactly triggered that dormant state and what allowed them to come out of it - until now. This month [researchers from UNC and other universities published findings](https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1030929?ref=s3t.org) that the amino acid *cysteine* triggers the animals to enter a dormant dehydrated state.
- [Access the full research paper here](https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0295062&ref=s3t.org), thanks to the open research platform PLOS ONE.
- [Fun facts about Water Bears](https://frontlinegenomics.com/everything-you-need-and-want-to-know-about-tardigrades/?ref=s3t.org), including how to find and view one of these amazing creatures yourself.
Note: The image above is not biologically accurate - Water Bears have a single hole in their head rather than a cute smiley face. But my prompt said something like "show a happy tardigrade orbiting the earth in space."
---
CHANGE LEADERSHIP SKILLS
## This bias stops teams from their biggest wins: how to overcome it.
Have you ever been in a meeting where you felt people weren't being receptive, and you were hearing phrases like these:
- "*Let's table this for now"* \- in other words, we want to deal with things that are more clear, and more defined and we assume that we'll have sufficient time later to figure that out. This notion often causes teams to lose competitive advantage because they failed to start learning about some new problem/solution when they needed to.
- "*What problem are we trying to solve*?" - suggesting that no learning or experimentation should ever occur unless we've anchored it to a current definition of a current problem.
- "*What we've decided*" or "*how we've done it*" - defending previous understandings or processes, or wanting to continue to rely on them when new developments are making them obsolete.
Often people will question the value of changes because it's different from what they're used to.
When you get these kinds of reactions, it can be frustrating. But I want to show you how to turn it around. By understanding people's natural bias for familiar, known, unambiguous conditions, you can create openness to change that otherwise won't happen.
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T Jan 19 - Crypto Talent, Privacy & Human Rights, Web3 Social, Mindset, Defining Change Leadership, Groupthink
URL: https://www.s3t.org/jan-19-2024/
Last updated: 2024-01-23T14:31:14.000Z
---
*Welcome and thank you for reading and sharing S3T. I'm fascinated by the *emerging discipline of change leadership* and what good things happen when we help people master the change leadership *skillset*. Each week I share the latest insights and essential perspectives via the S3T newsletter & podcast to empower your journey as a change-maker. I hope this edition gives you max value in the coming week! Thank you! --Ralph Perrine*
### 😎️ In this edition of S3T:
- **Closer Examination:** Now that the hoopla is cooling down, its time to look at 2 longer term implications of crypto ETFs: The Talent Market and the Future of Privacy and Human Rights**.**
- **Defining Change Leadership:** a S3T Learning Segment (from the Change Leadership Learning Series) offers a clear vision for the kind of leadership required in the 21st Century and how it can help you raise your game.
- **Guided Drawing Exercise:** Here at the beginning of the year, everyone is spending time selecting and defining goals - both personal and organizational. But **we might want to spend more time learning *the mindset* that makes goals achievable.**
- **3 Top reads this week:** *Political explainer on Deficits, Growth and Interest Rates* | *Managing expectations around GenAI* *| Protecting Your team from Groupthink.*
🔊 [Listen to this edition on the S3T Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org) (and forward to a friend!)
---
## 🔎 Closer Examination: Long term implications of crypto ETFs: Talent & Human Rights
###
Charts and headlines are cooling
After rejecting Crypto ETF applications for 11 years, the SEC was forced by court rulings to change course and approve the applications last week. These historic approvals allow top tier traditional finance firms to offer their clients exposure to crypto via Exchange Traded Funds.
A week later the general response seems muted. The price of Bitcoin hasn't moved far either way from the mid 40's. Some investors are[ leaving firms that refused to offer crypto EFTs](https://x.com/technologypoet/status/1745504687376204249?s=46&t=GoPAAwUSN6sNrDA2LhP96Q&ref=s3t.org) to their clients.
### But 2 implications shape the longer view...
**Implication #1:** the ETF approval and the socialization of crypto as a bona fide investment is helping to *validate crypto as a career path*. Increasing numbers of talented technologists are joining the ranks. More details below.
**Implication #2:** the ETF approval marks a key milestone in the **mass adoption of a decentralized currency *not* issued by governments.** This in turn means that an important lever for the future of human rights and privacy just took another giant step toward long term viability.
These are covered in more detail below.
### Implication #1: Talent & the next round of Financial Innovation
New kinds of crypto ecosystems are being built, many offering the ability to earn crypto in exchange for contributing to their ecosystem. While Ethereum continues to be the 900 pound gorilla in the space. The sheer number of other entries - over 9,000 according to Electric Capital - is mind-boggling.
[Electric Capital’s latest report on the crypto talent market](https://blockworks.co/news/web3-developers-on-the-rise?ref=s3t.org) tracks the number of developers working on the top \~150 blockchains. Highlights:
- 22,411 monthly active crypto developers
- The number of long term (and more experienced) crypto developers is steadily rising - good sign for the future of these companies.
- Not so good sign: US-based crypto/web3 developers have been in decline since 2018 and the US is *only* nation experiencing such a decline.
- Sharp increase in multi-chain: more than a 1/3 of crypto developers now work on or support more than one chain.
Some examples of the diverse kinds of new platforms and ecosystems that are emerging:
- [Sweatcoin allows you to earn crypto by walking](https://sweatco.in/?ref=s3t.org). Note: Sweatcoin originally started with a virtual "currency" that wasn't actually tradeable for other crypto assets, but now has launched a true crypto currency exchangeable with other crypto. You can exchange Sweatcoins for other crypto assets, spend it via the Sweatcoin marketplace, or donate it to a wide variety of non-profits.
- [Hivemapper is creating a decentralized competitor to Google Maps](https://hivemapper.com/explorer?ref=s3t.org). Get paid for running a dash cam and helping to build the map.
- [Aave Lens Protocol](https://docs.lens.xyz/docs/what-is-lens?ref=s3t.org) and [DeSo](https://docs.deso.org/?ref=s3t.org) are emerging Social Media platform toolkits for building **decentralized social apps**. These apps are not owned by a centralized entity (like Facebook, Twitter/X etc). They don't own your content, friends or social profile - you do, and you can take it with you. And finally they don't rely on ad-revenue 0r algorithms designed to induce doomscrolling addiction.
Crypto headhunter Scott Fletcher notes that **crypto executive hires have doubled** since the collapse of FTX in Nov 2022\. In [this Scoop interview](https://www.theblock.co/post/273989/crypto-job-market?ref=s3t.org) Scott unpacks how this job market is evolving
### Implication #2: Crypto and human rights
The ETF approvals mark a key milestone in the **mass adoption of a decentralized currency *not* issued by governments.** This in turn means that an important lever for the future of human rights and privacy just took another giant step toward long term viability.
This is a sensitive issue, one that makes good people go to extremes (on either side). Let's talk about why decentralized currencies/assets (which we often refer to as "crypto") have an important connection to the future of human rights.
Commenting on the ETF approvals by the SEC, RedPhone wrote an impassioned thread on X (excerpt below, [Read the entire thread here](https://x.com/redphonecrypto/status/1745216686624506285?s=46&t=GoPAAwUSN6sNrDA2LhP96Q&ref=s3t.org)) that sums up the connection between crypto and human rights:
*“I'd be lying if I said the approval of a #bitcoin spot ETF didn't make me emotional...*
*\[Crypto is\] money backed not by men but by math and algorithms...an infrastructure run not by military might, jail cells and exorbitant privilege... but by incentives...*
*We've lost so much freedom in the world... there's a camera on every street corner. Our phone's listen in our conversations, our bank accounts can get seized at any moment...*
*Crypto is one of the only things on earth pushing back... It's the last free frontier on earth... We've built out uncensorable money. But more than that: uncensorable web storage, hosting, DNS, DEXes, gaming, appstores and more...Crypto is our escape...They've hemmed us in IRL, but they can't hem us in online...Satoshi, Hal and Ross showed us a path to freedom...It's our job to protect it ✊”*
My intent is not to signal agreement with 100% of what this person says or believes. But I do think there are important elements here for us to keep in mind as we design technology platforms and capabilities, establish data governance, security and technology usage policies in our companies, and as we interact with our elected representatives and policy-makers:
- Human rights and privacy are tied together inextricably. Unfortunately, privacy also is often leveraged for criminal activities. Criminals and governments will always be locked in a pursuit of dominance. That pursuit of dominance however must not be allowed to perversely impact human rights.
- It's up to us collectively to learn and decide where to draw the line between legitimate privacy and human rights on the one hand vs. lawlessness and avoidance of accountability. That's hard to do.
- Governments today have greater surveillance and enforcement capabilities than at any time in history. And, unlike any other time in history, the rise of pervasive centralized networks, robotics, drones, and artificial intelligence is extending government powers even further.
When the US Declaration of Independence and Constitution were written, the framers devoted extensive time, argument and ink to the problem of how to limit government power. We now stand at the threshold of a new era where those old limitations are showing their age. We need to devote more time to considering how to place appropriate limits and guardrails for modern governments empowered with unprecedented levels of real time information and control mechanisms.
Crypto for all of is flaws and misuse, is one very crucial set of capabilities that can be used to preserve human privacy and human rights in an era of when governments are virtually omnipresent and omnipotent.
---
## 🌏 Change Leadership: what is it, why is it different, and why is it so vital now?
Looking at the world through the lens of change leadership will give you better ways to: learn, prioritize, execute. empower others, and above all: demonstrate top-tier effectiveness and maximize your impact.
[**Defining Change Leadership**](https://www.s3t.org/defining-change-leadership/) is a S3T Learning Segment that is part of the Change Leadership Learning Series. It will give you a clear understanding of what change leadership is, how it differs from change management, and how it can help you raise your game.
If you recently signed up for S3T, this is a great starting point for your learning journey to become an effective change leader. If you've been a member for a while, here at the new year is a perfect time to reinforce your skills and awareness.
**Further Reading**
- [Leading Change is hard](https://hbr.org/1995/05/leading-change-why-transformation-efforts-fail-2?ref=s3t.org) \- HBR on why transformation efforts fail.
- [John Kotter's 8 steps for leading change](https://www.kotterinc.com/methodology/8-steps/?ref=s3t.org) \- one of the original frameworks for change leadership.
---
Photo by [Alexa Williams](https://unsplash.com/@glamorousplanning?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## 🎯Planning your year: Mindset first, then goals
Here at the beginning of the year, everyone is spending time setting and defining goals - personal and organizational. But **we might want to spend more time learning *the mindset* that makes goals achievable.** *The right mindset makes a big difference when setting goals and embarking on *the journey to learn how to achieve them*.*
[**How to think about your goals**](https://www.s3t.org/how-to-think-about-your-goals/) is a simple little drawing exercise anyone can do in a few minutes of quiet time. It's silly simple but powerful, because it gets you asking the right questions, that are going to help you find the way to achieve your goals...even the ones you worry aren't possible.
*Follow the screenshots and see what happens when you do your own version of this drawing!*
---
## Recommended Reads This Week
🇺🇸 **For the 2024 primaries** \- James Galbraith [dismantles the argument that high debt to GDP ratios require us to cut social programs](https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/us-public-debt-disaster-unwarranted-fear-by-james-k-galbraith-2023-12?ref=s3t.org). "*Deficits and high debt-to-GDP ratios are not the problem. What matters is the difference between the interest rate and the growth rate.*" (Related: US [Primary Calendar here](https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/2024-state-primary-election-dates?ref=s3t.org))
🤖 **Managing AI Expectations** \- The consensus continues to develop: we were expecting way too much from GenAI. [This HBR piece advises cautions experimentation](https://hbr.org/2024/01/is-genais-impact-on-productivity-overblown?ref=s3t.org), mindful of two key risks: 1) Productivity gains on an individual level don't always translate to org level gains, and 2) Adverse impacts to creativity, and critical thinking.
🐑 **Protect your team from groupthink** \- [Understanding the Common Knowledge Effect](https://www.nngroup.com/articles/common-knowledge-effect/?ref=s3t.org) can help teams stop burning time on commonly held information and leverage the value of insights that are not as commonly understood.
---
## 💬 Final Note
Thanks again for reading and sharing. Hope you are all S3T for a successful week!
Feel free to forward this to a friend and continue the conversation on [Mastodon](https://mastodon.world/@RalphPerrine?ref=s3t.org), [Twitter/X](https://twitter.com/RalphPerrine?ref=s3t.org) or [LinkedIn](www.linkedin.com/in/ralphperrine).
Thank you!
Ralph Perrine
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial or legal advice. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed.*
### S3T Jan 12, 2024: Robots that learn, AI gloom, the fast and the slow, Inflation disparity, Crypto ETFs, Pozole, Care
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-jan-12-2024/
Last updated: 2024-01-13T19:28:16.000Z
### 😎️ In this edition of S3T:
- **Emerging Tech:** Robots are already learning how to do chores - will they someday provide care? AI Impacts to Jobs is unclear, as we all come down off the AI hype of 2023\. What is clear: AI drives new kinds of work and risk
- **Macro:** Inflation - even the narrow measures the Fed prefers, is up again. Plus: Jan 11 marks the first day of crypto ETF trading, after 11 funds gain SEC approval, after 11 years of SEC rejections.
- **Special Feature: Taking care of you and those you care for -** *Change leadership can be tense, stressful, and chaotic. Self care and team care are essential for change leaders in 2024\.*
- **Sensible Ideas:** *New Years is a perfect time to enjoy Pozole, a dish with a horrific origin. Its a historic reminder of just how important it is to challenge the status the status quo.*
🔊 [Listen to this edition on the S3T Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org) (and forward to a friend!)
---
## Emerging Tech: Help with the chores, AI & Jobs, Dual Speeds
### ALOHA the Open Source Learning Robot
Needs some help with the housework? Stanford and Google have a solution for you. Watch [this video of a robot](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T0g66FbVaow&ref=s3t.org) doing laundry, cooking breakfast and more:
ALOHA ([**A** **LO**w-cost **O**pen-source **HA**rdware System for Bimanual Teleoperation](https://www.trossenrobotics.com/aloha.aspx?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=We%20introduce%20ALOHA%3A%20A%20Low,in%20the%20NIST%20board%20%232.)) is a low cost (\~$20K) *learning* robot system that learns complex manual tasks from a human operator, and can also leverages a scheme of leader robots and follower robots.
The entire system works with off-the-shelf robot parts and 3D printed components. It allows a human to teleoperate a leader robot, while follower robots imitate the same actions. ALOHA's early performance suggests it is capable of precise, contact-rich, and dynamic work due to its learning capability.
Two implications:
- This represents the ability to train robots based on human movement and direct guidance (vs training AI models on say Internet content, or data with anomalies in it).
- This appears to have very wide applicability to manual work. Household chores is a logical starting point, but some are thinking along the lines of healthcare use cases.. for example in home care.
There is a lot to be tested and resolved first however. The video above shows the robot (under close supervision) operating a stove, moving heavy objects like bicycles around the house. The potential for spectacular and tragic mishaps is a bit terrifying.
### Digging Deeper on AI and Job Impacts
As noted in a recent S3T edition, a [Nobel Prize Winner warned that STEM jobs may be put at risk by the rise of AI](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-02/nobel-prize-winner-cautions-on-rush-into-stem-after-rise-of-ai?ref=s3t.org).
I'm not sure if we've fully proven that AI actually *reduces* work, and least in the near term. It certainly can relocate or redistribute work. There is a tremendous amount of work required to make AI platforms actually provide value in regulated industries, and to resolve the risks and issues they raise.
The "progress" so far with ChatGPT - interesting as it may be - is derived from noisy internet data. I suspect we'll eventually come to see this in hindsight **like training robots to build cars by letting them learn from junkyards.**
What happens when we actually want to prepare and use healthcare data, financial data, other kinds of structured (not public internet) data for beneficial AI purposes? Very big projects - that's what will *have to happen*. This will require people with heavy data expertise to work with cross disciplinary teams to address risk and ensure the delivery of value.
### Sobering realities...
This week I had the chance to attend the annual planning session of an organization that convenes a cross section of leaders from tech, finance, education and strategic consulting. Eye opening to me how established **companies across the board are treading the AI space with increasing caution.** General sentiment: GenAI has opened a very large and full can of worms that leaders in the existing set of regulated companies with their static org structures and job families aren't quite sure what to do with.
The hesitation leaders are feeling is articulated in sharp, provocative language in this recommended read: [What kind of bubble is AI?](https://pluralistic.net/2023/12/19/bubblenomics/?ref=s3t.org#pop) This harks from a different source (not affiliated with the event above) yet echoes the same concerns. The piece is also a call for non-wasteful *beneficial* AI. If you've sensed an undercurrent toward **using AI to free Big Tech from the hassles of having to employ humans**, this is the read for you.
**Now is the time to get ahead of this issue.** Metaculus (a site that structures questions about the future and then curates predictions about them) forecasts that [Artificial General Intelligence will emerge by March 2032](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/?ref=s3t.org). This timeframe for this forecast has shrunk dramatically over the past 24 months.
### Dual Speeds: The Fast and the Not So Fast
Some players will have to proceed slowly, even as others continue to accelerate. In the history of innovation, some new technologies are so impactful that new kinds of companies, teams, job paths end up being created around those technologies. In these scenarios, companies don't adopt technologies; instead, technologies spawn a new kinds of companies. Incumbent players can forfeit their right to play, especially if stuck in org structures, financial models, job families, business processes, regulatory rules that evolve too slowly.
Context for Change Leaders: [4 Phases of Risk & Reward for Emerging Tech](https://www.s3t.org/4-phases-of-risk-reward-for-emerging-tech/) \- Effective change leaders understand (and leverage) the 4 phase process of how the New becomes acceptable over time. Understanding this framework can help you advise and make decisions on how to position your team or company amid the disruptive effects of emerging technologies.
*Speaking of slow regulatory moves*...see the Macro segment below.
---
## Macro
###
SEC Approves all 11 Crypto ETF applications
After **11 years of rejecting ETF applications for Crypto**, the SEC finally approved all 11 active applications, and trading began on - of course - January 11th. The approvals mean allow top tier traditional finance firms to offer their clients exposure to crypto via Exchange Traded Funds - technically the term is Exchange Traded Products. The combined exchanges [handled $4.6B in volume on their first day](https://www.reuters.com/technology/spot-bitcoin-etfs-start-trading-big-boost-crypto-industry-2024-01-11/?ref=s3t.org).
Hester Pierce the SEC commissioner who constantly challenges the SEC status quo aversion to change, minced no words in [a scathing statement she released alongside the long overdue approvals](https://www.sec.gov/news/statement/peirce-statement-spot-bitcoin-011023?ref=s3t.org).
Notable excerpt from Pierce's statement:
*"Today marks the end of an unnecessary, but consequential, saga...We squandered a decade of opportunities to do our job. *If we had applied the standard we use for other commodity-based ETPs, we could have approved these products years ago,* but we refused to do so until a court called our bluff."*
### Inflation Rising Again
Inflation [rose higher than expected at 3.4% in December](https://www.ft.com/content/368c3193-043c-4fef-95a5-751bce4e0699?ref=s3t.org) per latest figures released this week. The 3.4% figure masks a number of inflation hotspots where inflation is much higher (See [Dec 2023 BLS Inflation Figures](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t01.htm?ref=s3t.org#cpipress1.f.1) which includes the top level number above, but shows specific figures by segment):
- **Car insurance 20.3%**
- Car maintenance 7.1%
- Rent 6.5%
- Hospital services 5.5%
- Eating Out 5.2%
In addition childcare costs are [up 32% since 2019](https://www.axios.com/2023/11/01/child-care-costs-average-chart-inflation?ref=s3t.org) (vs 20% for overall CPI). And as noted previously, healthcare costs have been rising 6-9% even during pre-pandemic years when inflation was supposedly tame - see [this PWC report for a helpful chart](https://www.pwc.com/us/en/industries/health-industries/library/behind-the-numbers.html?ref=s3t.org). Education costs have been [rising 8% per year, doubling every 9 years](https://finaid.org/savings/tuition-inflation/?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=A%20good%20rule%20of%20thumb,college%20doubles%20every%20nine%20years.).
**The governments status quo approach to inflation - measuring and emphasizing only selected cost factors - needs to be updated.**
---
### **Special Feature**
Photo by [Jennifer Delmarre](https://unsplash.com/@delmarre?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Taking care of yourself and others this year
###
*As the world accelerates and the stakes get higher, it's more important than ever to be intentional about taking care of yourself and those you care about. Some key considerations for change leaders in 2024\.*
### Managing your thoughts
Ruminating and overthinking - whether it's replaying [past losses, embarrassments or humiliations](https://theconversation.com/why-do-i-remember-embarrassing-things-ive-said-or-done-in-the-past-and-feel-ashamed-all-over-again-190535?ref=s3t.org), [dwelling on your ex](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/20/6-signs-youre-ruminating-on-your-ex-and-how-to-stop.html?ref=s3t.org), or [dwelling on good old days you wish hadn't ended](https://www.self.com/story/stop-romanticizing-past?ref=s3t.org), rumination takes us away from the opportunities and joys of the present. How to stop ([here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NAT9pFN2GqU&ref=s3t.org), and [here](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/01/well/mind/stop-rumination-worry.html?ref=s3t.org)).
### Helpful vs non-helpful venting
Have you ever said - or had someone else say to you "I just need to vent!" Here's a different perspective: [Venting isn't always helpful](https://slate.com/technology/2022/03/venting-makes-you-feel-worse-psychology-research.html?ref=s3t.org) (great read from Gail Cornwall and Juli Fraga). Here's the question ask: *When you talk about something are you reinforcing negativity? or are you reframing it so you can move forward?*
- **Venting that *reinforces*** negativity, including anger or feelings of powerlessness only makes things worse.
- **Venting that *reframes*** can be helpful: talking about something in a way that helps you arrive at a better understanding and broader perspective can help you set a constructive path for moving forward.
### Questions that can help reframe
Recovery Village offers a [handy set of questions you can use to help](https://www.therecoveryvillage.com/mental-health/social-anxiety-disorder/how-to-help-a-friend-with-social-anxiety/?ref=s3t.org#5-help-reframe-their-thoughts) someone with social anxiety reframe a situation. As you'll see, these questions can be helpful for other scenarios where you want to reframe and connect to the bigger picture perspective:
- What is the worst that could happen?
- What is most likely going to happen?
- What’s something good that could come out of this?
- Have you ever felt like this before? You survived it last time.
- If you look back at this situation years from now, what will you think about it?
### More Insights
💎 [Life is a Tapestry](https://www.s3t.org/tapestry/) \- How to think about your less than perfectly focused life.
💎 [How to Shift from Anxiety-Driven Work to Intentional Work](https://www.s3t.org/anxiety-vs-intentional/) \- When thinking about the new year, or any new chapter, use this insight to gain clarity about how you're spending your time, what you're focusing on the most, and where that's taking you.
---
## Sensible Ideas: Pozole, a reminder that change is good
It’s Pozole Time Again! Every year just after New Years my family gathers for a Pozole stew lunch (pictured above).
Pozole - one of Mexico's oldest recipes - is a traditional favorite served around Christmas and New Years across Latin America. Pozole (also spelled Posole) is the perfect winter stew made of pork or chicken with hominy in a savory red chile and tomato broth. The soup is then topped with cabbage, lime, onions and peppers with a slice of lime or lemon (our family version). Others put cilantro, radishes and avocado. Serve it with fresh corn tortillas hot off the [comal](https://www.mexgrocer.com/9115-w.html?ref=s3t.org).
History has it, this wonderful dish was invented sometime in the 1300s by the Nahuatl-speaking indigenous rulers of the Aztec Empire. [The original recipe called for human flesh](https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/english/sacred-religious-and-cannibalistic-origins-pozole?ref=s3t.org) \- specifically the leg of a conquered warrior - per [Bernardino de Sahagun's General History of the Things of New Spain](https://www.loc.gov/item/2021667837/?ref=s3t.org) (a 16th century ethnographic research study with beautiful illustrations).
Fortunately, the invading Spaniards challenged the status quo, and forced the recipe to be changed to turkey, pork or chicken. Perhaps one of the few clearly positive contributions of Europe to the New World.
Two of the best recipes you can find online: [Isabel Eats](https://www.isabeleats.com/red-posole-recipe/?ref=s3t.org) and [Delish](https://www.delish.com/cooking/recipe-ideas/a30875851/pozole-recipe/?ref=s3t.org).
---
## 💬 Final Note
Thanks to everyone who signed up! Please visit the Members Portal and take advantage of the tools and insights that can help you sharpen your change leadership skills and overcome challenges you are facing this week.
I'm fascinated by the emerging discipline of *change leadership* \- a new set of skills essential for the accelerating world of the 21st century.
Change leadership goes beyond just change management and offers a framework that spans:
- What you notice and how you see the world
- How you initiate and mobilize
- How you navigate resistance and challenges and move all the way to the desired outcome.
It's an exciting journey and we're so glad to have you along!
Ralph
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial or legal advice. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed.*
### S3T Jan 5, 2024 - Common themes from the top 2024 Outlooks & Forecasts
URL: https://www.s3t.org/jan-5-2024/
Last updated: 2024-01-23T17:42:48.000Z
****🎧** [****Listen to this episode on the S3T Podcast**](https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/gets3t/episodes/S3T-Jan-5--2024---Common-themes-from-the-top-2024-Outlooks--Forecasts-e2e1948?ref=s3t.org) **\-** **Be sure to follow the S3T podcast so you never miss a show!*
### ***Happy Friday!*** Welcome to the S3T Edition for Friday January 5 2024:
- Prediction Season is here again - A slew of new forecasts and outlooks for 2024\. I've pulled together **themes from the leading 2024 forecasts** and across healthcare tech and financial innovation so you can focus on what you want to be ready for this year.
- Last year's AI hype cycle created high expectations about what can be done with AI. There will be a big focus this year on **finding AI use cases that will are actually doable and deliver real world value.** So this week we have a special feature where I share a [framework with 8 proven questions I've used to identify actionable AI use cases that led to real world results](https://www.s3t.org/validating-ai-use-cases/).
---
💡
****Special New Year's Offer!** [****Sign up by Jan 7 and get your first 30 days free**](https://www.s3t.org/new-years-offer-30-day-free-trial)****!** Support S3Ts mission of empowering change leaders, while also developing your change leadership skills so you can maximize your influence and impact.
## 🔮2024 Outlook: Top themes from the forecasts
*Prediction Season is here again - A slew of new forecasts and outlooks for 2024\. I've pulled together themes from the leading 2024 forecasts and outlooks across healthcare, tech and financial innovation so you can focus on what you want to be ready for this year. If you are thinking about where to focus your career, or other teams, or what your next product or platform should offer, you'll find helpful insights in these key themes. Let's dig in!*
### 🏥 Healthcare innovation will drive costs up
Cell and Gene Therapies go mainstream: Keep an eye on the [FDA's anticipated approvals of a range of CRISPR-based gene therapy approaches](https://www.massgeneralbrigham.org/en/about/newsroom/articles/2024-predictions-about-gene-and-cell-therapy?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=%E2%80%9CThere%20is%20a%20wave%20of,done%27%20permanent%20genetic%20treatments.%E2%80%9D).
[Weight loss drugs and a new understanding of what drives obesity](https://www.science.org/content/article/breakthrough-of-the-year-2023?ref=s3t.org) will put pressure on insurers (and Medicare) to [find ways to make these drugs affordable](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/why-new-weight-loss-drugs-are-out-of-reach-for-millions-of-older-americans?ref=s3t.org). See Morningstar: [5 obesity drug trends to watch in 2024](https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20231223362/five-obesity-drug-trends-to-watch-in-2024-who-can-compete-with-eli-lilly-and-novo-nordisk?ref=s3t.org).
Bottom Line: we haven't really begun to solve the foundational financial problem in healthcare - costs will be going higher than ever in 2024\. We have to look at the financial layer of healthcare and be willing to rethink the economic mental models we have about moral hazard, risk transfer and inclusion.
The platforms and processes that run US healthcare today were designed in an era when far fewer people had insurance, far fewer conditions were considered treatable, and when it was considered permissible to exclude people from care if they lacked the preferred financial and health characteristics. Today we are in a very different world. **The math of healthcare has changed. Our values have changed. Unfortunately our platforms and processes (and the financial model that justifies them) still need to catch up.**
For a comprehensive learning paths on this topic, here are two options (for paying members):
- [Recommended Reading for Healthcare Leaders](https://www.s3t.org/learning-path-for-healthcare-leaders/) \- a curated list of books and online resources that bring more complete perspectives to the issue of healthcare affordability and how to achieve it.
- [Moral Hazard](https://www.s3t.org/moral-hazard/) \- based on a 3 part series originally published in S3T. - diagnoses the flawed economic mental model that continues to encumber healthcare.
### 🏛️ Politics & economics may be more entangled than usual
Elections will occur this year in nations that make up 60% of the world's economic activity. Allianz worries about [political turmoil impacting economic outcomes](https://www.allianz.com/en/press/news/studies/231215-allianz-2024-a-year-of-political-turmoil-and-economic-uncertainty.html?ref=s3t.org) this year. The OECD predicts a [mild slowing in global economic growth in 2024](https://www.oecd.org/newsroom/economic-outlook-a-mild-slowdown-in-2024-and-slightly-improved-growth-in-2025.htm?ref=s3t.org) (and resumed growth in 2025).
The Conference Board notes that - in spite of the Fed's ideas about a "soft landing", the US economy faces a [concerning mix of rising consumer debt, dissipating savings amid still high interest rates](https://www.conference-board.org/research/us-forecast?ref=s3t.org). Supply chain bottlenecks from the pandemic are mostly over but [the global supply chain is still being reorganized](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/outlook/economic-outlook/economic-trends?ref=s3t.org) due to deglobalization.
Commercial Real Estate is in for another rough year, [Fitch ratings sees](https://www.fitchratings.com/research/insurance/us-commercial-real-estate-deterioration-to-increase-in-2024-led-by-office-21-12-2023?ref=s3t.org) office vacancy rates jumping from 13.5% to 15.7% in 2024, and loan delinquencies rising to 8.1%, thanks in large part to remote/hybrid work. Fitch predicts 2025 will be even worse.
See also:
- JP Morgan: [2024 Economic Outlook: 10 Considerations for the US Economy](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/outlook/economic-outlook/economic-trends?ref=s3t.org)
- HBR: [What to Expect from the Global Economy in 2024](https://hbr.org/2023/12/what-to-expect-from-the-global-economy-in-2024?ref=s3t.org)
- Thomson Reuters: [Geopolitical & economic outlook 2024: Democracy and the splintering economy](https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en-us/posts/global-economy/geopolitical-economic-outlook-2024-democracy-economy/?ref=s3t.org)
### 🤖AI Companies hunt for marketshare (caution!)
[AI startups raised $50 Billion in 2023](https://altindex.com/news/ai-companies-raise?ref=s3t.org) (2nd highest in history). To start generating ROI, these companies will need to aggressively woo "qualified targets" (larger companies with larger budgets) in 2024\. Early indicators suggest [this won't be easy](https://www.pymnts.com/news/artificial-intelligence/2023/ai-cost-curve-has-big-tech-losing-money/?ref=s3t.org) in part due to the [legal minefield surrounding Gen AI model training methods](https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/ny-times-sues-openai-microsoft-infringing-copyrighted-work-2023-12-27/?ref=s3t.org).
**If you are part of a midsize or larger enterprise, expect to be targeted by aggressive sales teams from young AI companies.** To protect yourself, you need to align internally on which use cases you actually have that are realistically actionable this year. See special segment below: *8 questions to determine if you have an actionable Gen AI use case.*
Other AI themes:
- **AI Nationalism** will continue to accelerate and become a key factor of geopolitical competition. See Blockchain Council: [Era of AI Nationalism](https://www.blockchain-council.org/news/the-era-of-ai-nationalism-is-here/?ref=s3t.org) and HBR: [AI and the New Digital Cold War.](https://hbr.org/2023/09/ai-and-the-new-digital-cold-war?ref=s3t.org)
- **AI negative impacts to STEM jobs** \- some [anticipate that the age of hyper capable AI will reduce the demand for STEM workers](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-02/nobel-prize-winner-cautions-on-rush-into-stem-after-rise-of-ai?ref=s3t.org), and increase the demand for a new kind of creative and empathy skillsets. This aligns to the S3T worldview that a blend of change leadership skills will be crucial for the 21st century.
- **AI positive impacts to offshore jobs** \- Something you might not have thought of: GenAI + Offshore: “English and writing is the weakest link and that is where AI will be a game changer.” - [Nick Huber](https://x.com/joshbobrowsky/status/1742193420586651877?s=46&t=GoPAAwUSN6sNrDA2LhP96Q&ref=s3t.org) (see screenshot below of a conversation about offshore employees).
### 🎢 Crypto's next roller coaster ride takes off
[Crypto winter is over](https://www.dlnews.com/articles/markets/get-ready-for-crypto-spring-and-stablecoin-surge-in-2024/?ref=s3t.org). Institutional investors will pile into crypto once again, especially if the SEC approves some or all of the ETF applications. Europe and the Middle East are moving forward with more clarity on crypto regulation - will the US follow? The [US courts will be busy but many doubt we'll see laws passed](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2023/12/27/elections-sec-cases-doj-cases-what-crypto-regulation-may-bring-in-2024/?ref=s3t.org) in this election year.
[Convergence between DeFi and TradFi](https://fintechmagazine.com/crypto/fintech-magazine-2024-predictions-crypto?ref=s3t.org): “*As 2024 approaches, we are entering a new era - one that will feature trusted utility, adoption by traditional financial institutions and regulatory alignment*” Eric van Miltenburg, SVP Strategic Initiatives at Ripple.
The blockchain industry [now has 239 different blockchains](https://defillama.com/chains?ref=s3t.org), ranging from Ethereum, Solana, Polygon to dozens you've probably never heard of. While Ethereum emerged from the crypto winter as the dominant chain, other chains are finding their niches. In 2024 [these chains will continue to evolve](https://www.dlnews.com/articles/defi/defi-developments-to-watch-for-in-2024-uniswap-celestia/?ref=s3t.org): we're familiar with *public* vs *private* blockchain categories, but now in the public blockchain category expect to see a new dividing line between blockchains that are *modular* (Celestia, Cosmos) vs *monolithic* (Ethereum).
This potentially is going to set up a blockchain ecosystem with a lot of room for niche players who can specialize in playing specific roles for specific use cases. If that happens (and if we can ensure common interoperability standards) I think that would be a nice departure from the Big Tech pattern we have currently where 5 or 6 giant companies dominate the market.
**What to watch/explore:** Convergence between AI and Blockchain: Blockchain can be used to [track ownership of data, and control its usage](https://www.dlnews.com/articles/regulation/what-blockchain-can-do-for-ai-and-vice-versa/?ref=s3t.org) \- for AI or other purposes.
💡
**"As AI continues to evolve, blockchain will increasingly be used to address some of the concerns of AI"*
\- [Renz Chong, Breeder DAO](https://www.dlnews.com/articles/markets/get-ready-for-crypto-spring-and-stablecoin-surge-in-2024/?ref=s3t.org)
### 🌍Climate Change, Biodiversity Loss, and Water Crisis.
Expect increasing attention on[ relocating coastal communities](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/22/what-it-takes-to-relocate-a-town-facing-sea-level-rise.html?ref=s3t.org). This has been a [developing theme for some time](https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/3262617-how-to-help-communities-step-back-from-the-coast-as-sea-levels-rise/?ref=s3t.org), as communities and agencies alike recognize that coastal protection structures will not be able to protect against 2-7 feet rise that is forecast by the NOAA. It will likely come to the forefront as communities, insurers and local governments struggle to maintain community safety and services amid increasingly extreme weather events. See also: [US Climate Resilience Toolkit](https://toolkit.climate.gov/topics/coastal-flood-risk?ref=s3t.org) and [Fuji's Plans](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/22/what-it-takes-to-relocate-a-town-facing-sea-level-rise.html?ref=s3t.org).
Also: [Mariana Mazzucato connects the dots](https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/global-water-crisis-bad-economics-ignores-externalities-rewards-pillaging-by-mariana-mazzucato-et-al-2023-12?ref=s3t.org) on the roots of the severe inequities in water access around the world.
---
### Final Note: Favorite Quote from *Syntax of the River*
Photo by [shayd johnson](https://unsplash.com/@xshaydx?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
“But if you write good stories, then people who are capable of writing good policy will write better policy for having read the stories.” - Barry Lopez, *Syntax of the River* (a great book I'm currently reading!)
---
### Special Feature
[**Paying Members click here for the full version of this framework with real world examples.** ](https://www.s3t.org/validating-ai-use-cases/)
## 🌟How actionable is your Gen AI use case?
*In the dynamic world of Gen AI, identifying legitimate and actionable use cases is crucial. This is especially important for change leaders who naturally want to find ways to harness emerging technology for good.*
Unfortunately it's not always easy to figure out exactly where and how an emerging technology like AI can be used. This may sound counterintuitive, but if you've actually delivered AI solutions that had real world impact, you know the trial and error that it took to get there.
I've been fortunate to be part of teams that delivered highly impactful AI models for healthcare, and there's nothing like getting feedback from patients and healthcare workers about how your solution helped them in a positive way. At the same time, I'd love to help others avoid some of the trial and error we had to go through in order to find the use cases that were actually impactful.
*This guide offers a clear pathway to determine if your Gen AI project is set for success.*
### 🤔 8 Simple Questions to Validate Your Gen AI Use Case
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T Dec 29, 2023 - Year in Review: Healthcare, Crypto, AI, the Great Exhaustion, WPA Guides...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/dec-29-2023/
Last updated: 2024-01-03T12:09:26.000Z
###
Special New Year's Offer! [Sign up by Jan 7 and get the first 30 days free](https://www.s3t.org/new-years-offer-30-day-free-trial)!
- *S3T is a fun continuous learning platform for leaders learning how to drive positive change.*
- *S3T helps you stay ahead of the curve on key trends, and helps you sharpen your change leadership skills and awareness, so you can maximize your influence and impact.*
Make 2024 your best year yet: sign up for S3T and improve your leadership skills and awareness week by week throughout the year. [Get your 30 day free trial now](https://www.s3t.org/new-years-offer-30-day-free-trial).
---
Photo by [Gaurav K](https://unsplash.com/@gkukreti?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Special Feature: Looking back on 2023: key developments with the biggest implications for the year ahead.
**CONTENTS**
- Healthcare: GLP-1s, Telehealth, and increased urgency for change
- Crypto Turnaround: economic and political implications
- AI: Massive hype, then chaos and lawsuits
- The Great Exhaustion & the new role of office space
### Healthcare: GLP-1s, Telehealth, and increased urgency for change
**Healthcare costs rose** in line with inflation in 2023 per [this study of the prices of CMS's so called 500 Shoppable Services](https://blog.turquoise.health/2023-year-in-review-healthcare-economics-edition/?ref=s3t.org). **Healthcare costs are** [**projected to rise 7% in 2024**](https://www.ifebp.org/store/Pages/health-care-costs-report-2024.aspx?ref=s3t.org)**.**
One big cost driver: The discovery that glucagon like peptide-1 (GLP-1) agonists can help address obesity - being [heralded as a major scientific breakthrough](https://www.aaas.org/news/sciences-2023-breakthrough-glp-1-agonists-show-promise-against-obesity-associated-disease?ref=s3t.org) as the new class of drugs brings both results for patients and disruption to the market. You may have heard of some of these - they go by names like Ozempic, Wegovy. Trulicity. See also:
- [Goodrx comparison here](https://www.goodrx.com/classes/glp-1-agonists/glp-1-drugs-comparison?ref=s3t.org) with details on how to understand the options.
- [Cleveland Clinic medical explanation](https://my.clevelandclinic.org/health/treatments/13901-glp-1-agonists?ref=s3t.org) of how the drugs work, and their side effects.
**At the same time, confidence in healthcare fell:** In spite of the rising costs, the percent of [Americans who believe in the quality of American healthcare fell below 50%](https://news.gallup.com/poll/468176/americans-sour-healthcare-quality.aspx?ref=s3t.org) in 2023 (The lowest in 2 decades).
**Healthcare transformation had mixed success:**
- [Venture backed healthcare had a rough year](https://www.janushenderson.com/en-us/advisor/article/healthcare-stocks-positioned-for-potentially-smoother-ride-in-2024/?ref=s3t.org). In addition, two trends - retail healthcare, and multi-omic precision medicine - do not seem to have played out as expected in 2023 although [solid progress happened](https://www.genengnews.com/industry-news/2023-biotechnology-developments/?ref=s3t.org) on the research fronts. (Also [See Slides 12-13 in this presentation](https://issuu.com/wittkieffer/docs/0188-fyr%5Finvestorbackedhealthcare?ref=s3t.org) for more context and forward looking views on healthcare VC).
- [Amazon rolled out a Primary Care Telehealth service](https://www.onemedical.com/prime-members/?ref=s3t.org). Amazon Prime members can access unlimited 24/7 Telehealth consultations for $9 per month.
- One key development that didn't perhaps as much attention as it deserved: Best Buy Health (yes, the Best Buy you got your TV or laptop from) [is quietly moving into a leadership position in home-based care](https://corporate.bestbuy.com/a-year-in-review-best-buy-health-in-2023/?ref=s3t.org).
- Value Based Care began to be [put forward as an enabler for Population Health](https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/4379238-fee-for-service-healthcare-is-making-us-sick/?ref=s3t.org) \- an interesting and *potentially tricky* switch:
- Value Based Care has been implemented to incentivize providers to drive health outcomes *for the specific group of patients attributed to them*.
- Leveraging Value Based Care to drive Population Health in a meaningful way for communities would mean incentivizing providers to drive health outcomes *for members of the community who might NOT be attributed to them (or any provider)*.
As noted by [Rita Numero in this recommended opinion piece](https://www.forbes.com/sites/ritanumerof/2023/12/26/a-failing-us-healthcare-system-braces-for-more-tough-times-as-disruptors-continue-their-march-to-reform/?sh=6803017a5592&ref=s3t.org), the urgency for meaningful healthcare transformation is building.
---
### Crypto Turnaround: economic and political implications
Digital assets and blockchain based projects are clearly back in a bull market hype cycle after suffering through the crypto winter of 2022 and early 2023\. The new round of bullish sentiment is perhaps [best summed up here by Michael Saylor's remarks here](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/michael-saylor-says-if-bitcoin-not-going-to-zero-its-going-to-a-million-believes-global?ref=s3t.org) (see excerpt in the callout below):
- Inflation is driving BTC adoption
- Confluence of bullish milestones over the next 6 months: the halving combined with the anticipated **ETF approvals the industry hopes will happen in Q1.**
💡
**"Bitcoin represents the digital transformation of capital and everyone is beginning to realize that they are underallocated"*
\- [Michael Saylor](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/michael-saylor-says-if-bitcoin-not-going-to-zero-its-going-to-a-million-believes-global?ref=s3t.org)
Saylor pioneered the use of Bitcoin as a corporate treasury asset, and it will be interesting to see how much Bitcoin and other digital assets return to mainstream use in 2024\. **I do expect to see some significant new financial innovation emerge in 2024 as blockchain based architectures (and the digital capital and decentralized governance structures they enable) converge with AI.**
The wildcard in this will be regulatory clarity, which brings us to the 2024 elections.
If the 2024 elections are close (and many indicators suggest they will be), then political strategist on both sides need to consider the very real possibility that the Democrats are in danger (thanks to a few loud voices that do not represent the broader consensus) of coming down on the wrong side of the crypto debate and handing the Republicans fresh relevance and a set of victories at state and national levels. (Speaking here as a left leaning member of a diverse family which spans the political spectrum).
### AI: Massive hype, then chaos and lawsuits
The first half of 2023 saw [tech firms](https://www.reuters.com/technology/tech-ceos-wax-poetic-ai-big-adds-sales-will-take-time-2023-04-26/?ref=s3t.org) and [investors](https://www.forbes.com/sites/qai/2023/03/31/ai-stocks-to-watch-in-2023/?sh=56a2594933e3&ref=s3t.org) alike adopt extremely optimistic views about the utility of GenAI.
Now at year's end, OpenAI is recovering from its [organizational meltdown](https://www.theverge.com/2023/11/22/23972572/microsoft-internal-memo-kevin-scott-openai?ref=s3t.org), tech companies [are finding it difficult to get returns on their AI investments](https://www.pymnts.com/news/artificial-intelligence/2023/ai-cost-curve-has-big-tech-losing-money/?ref=s3t.org), and the [New York Times just filed a lawsuit against Microsoft and OpenAI](https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/ny-times-sues-openai-microsoft-infringing-copyrighted-work-2023-12-27/?ref=s3t.org) for copyright infringement, claiming that its content was used by OpenAI to train its GenAI capabilities. Read the [69 page lawsuit complaint here](https://embed.documentcloud.org/documents/24238498-nyt%5Fcomplaint%5Fdec2023/?ref=s3t.org).
[OpenAI has evaded questions about training data](https://www.theverge.com/2023/3/15/23640180/openai-gpt-4-launch-closed-research-ilya-sutskever-interview?ref=s3t.org), but some [researchers found ways to trick ChatGPT into revealing](https://not-just-memorization.github.io/extracting-training-data-from-chatgpt.html?ref=s3t.org) at least some of its training data (one [extraction example here](https://chat.openai.com/share/456d092b-fb4e-4979-bea1-76d8d904031f?ref=s3t.org)).
**Forward view:** AI is here to stay - it will increasingly just be part of the world's operational plumbing going forward. It will continue to drive disappointment, dilemmas and risks, even as its powers and capabilities continue to improve. In 2024 AI won't likely be the driver of headlines that it was in 2023 except when it poses new problems.
**Historic context:** Big Tech has a history of appropriating/capturing data and creative work published via social media or web sites and then using this material for their own profit. Using web content to train AI models is not the first case of this pattern:
- Find an asset that isn't protected
- Appropriate it then incorporate it into a product or service
- Wring out big profits
Before GDPR driven reforms, Big Tech did this with personal data as they built their large platforms and billion-dollar business margins: **taking advantage of the fact that the legal system had not yet evolved to protect the data and privacy of individuals.** It's ethically similar to the historic appropriation of Indigenous lands and resources simply because they happen to not be under the protection of a recognized regime.
---
### The Great Exhaustion & the new role of office space
First the Great Resignation, then the Return to Office wars and now the *Great Exhaustion*. [Cal Newport uncovers evidence that knowledge workers are exhausted](https://www.newyorker.com/culture/2023-in-review/an-exhausting-year-in-and-out-of-the-office?ref=s3t.org) due to the drains of constant interruptive digital communication, in some cases made worse by demands (of some employers) for more frequent commutes or travel to the office.
**Return to Office** ([a campaign backed by real-estate interests](https://www.theregister.com/2023/12/03/return%5Fto%5Foffice/?ref=s3t.org) facing [empty downtowns](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/13/shifting-to-life-post-covid-how-remote-work-transformed-this-city-in-the-midwest.html?ref=s3t.org) and [a severe correction in the commercial real estate market](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/12/goldman-sachs-ceo-solomon-commercial-real-estate-write-downs.html?ref=s3t.org)) is being replaced by a [hybrid approach that uses corporate space for specific purposes vs the default hub for all work](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/11/full-return-to-office-isnt-only-work-model-dying-so-is-fully-remote.html?ref=s3t.org). The issue has driven closer examination of what works for workers and productivity (see Cal Newport's piece above, and the lively [Y-combinator discussion here](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38486907&ref=s3t.org)).
[Nick Bloom Twitter Thread](https://twitter.com/I%5FAm%5FNickBloom/status/1729557222424731894?ref=s3t.org)
**Evidence suggests that workers are still navigating how to balance their work and home lives.** In practice, even the mildest Hybrid work arrangements mean that more people will have to find ways to work on airplanes, buses and trains, and or participate in calls while driving their cars.
**Further Reading**
- NBER: [Why Working from Home will Stick](http://www.nber.org/papers/w28731?ref=s3t.org) \- review of the tangible benefits of remote work.
- NIH: [Leader Perspective on Remote Work](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9690707/?ref=s3t.org#B28-ijerph-19-15326) \- found a link between remote work benefits and the effectiveness of managers.
- [Nature's 2021 study on effect of remote work](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-021-01196-4?ref=s3t.org) on communication seems to underscore the need for remote workers to be trained in effective collaboration and communication.
- Nature's 2022 publication of the [impact of videoconferencing on idea generation](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04643-y?ref=s3t.org) noted that as "virtual communicators narrow their visual scope to the shared environment of a screen, their cognitive focus narrows in turn." (So use earbuds, walk around during calls, and limit use of video?).
- [Nature's 2023 publication of findings about remote work and innovation](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-03618-x?ref=s3t.org) suggests that more innovative work is best done in person while more process driven work should be done remotely. Possible time-bias: the research bases its findings on a comparison of how "ground-breaking" different research papers were (but most papers were written before the widespread remote work conditions imposed by the pandemic). If so, [not the first instance of a flawed review process for Springer Nature](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Springer%5FNature?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=In%20November%202021%2C%20Springer%20Nature,of%20a%20global%20climate%20crisis.).
---
Photo by [Domino](https://unsplash.com/@dominostudio?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Lay of the Land: The WPA American Guide Series
*Book lovers will find fascinating travel trivia and deep background on American politics in this little known canon of Americana,* [*now available online*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American%5FGuide%5FSeries?ref=s3t.org)*.*
Cover, WPA Guide to Illinois. Public domain image courtesy of Wikimedia Commons.
During the Depression years, the Works Progress Administration (WPA) commissioned a project to write a set of volumes detailing [the eccentric and essential things to know](https://www.neh.gov/article/how-wpa-state-guides-fused-essential-and-eccentric?ref=s3t.org) about each of the 48 United States that existed at the time.
Cover, WPA Guide to Tulsa, Oklahoma. Public domain image courtesy of Wikimedia Commons.
The project also produced guides to selected regions and cities. The project provided employment for approximately 7,000 writers unable to find work during the great Depression.
### Reading and finding the guides
- Read the guides online: [Wikipedia keeps a complete list of the state guides](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American%5FGuide%5FSeries?ref=s3t.org) with links to their digital versions.
- Buy your own physical set: [Here is what the entire physical set looks like](https://www.parigibooks.com/pages/books/30703/federal-writers-project-of-the-works-progress-administration-wpa/a-complete-set-of-the-federal-writers-project-fwp-american-guide-series-to-the-states?ref=s3t.org) (a listing of a set for sale with photos, available as of Dec 2023).
### Social and political relevance
If you want to know why US political conflicts evolved the way they did, its good to look at history and where possible the messaging used in official publications: how those in positions of privilege (and those approving what was published) explained things to themselves and to the public.
These books - with their mix of travel tips, trivia and history offer a rare time capsule glimpse into early 20th century mindsets; how writers in "official" publications spoke about the realities of American life in different regions of the country. For example, the Alabama guide opens with [cheerful depictions of life in Birmingham under Jim Crow laws](https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=uc1.b4469723&seq=31&ref=s3t.org).
The books comprise a treasure trove of lore about states and cities, as well as deep background on the attitudes, and character of different regions across US.
---
## Getting Ready for 2024
- [3 Questions that get you ready for the coming week](https://www.s3t.org/readyfortheweek/) \- a weekly quick guided exercise you can do each weekend to sharpen your effectiveness and get the most out of each week.
- [Reading List: Setting Goals and Driving Change](https://www.s3t.org/recommended-reading-goals/) \- List of books offering different angles and insights to fit specific challenges a person is having with setting and achieving goals. Take a look a the short descriptions to see which book might be the best recommendation for you *or someone you want to empower.*
- [Why Change Leadership is the most important skill of the 21st Century](https://www.s3t.org/why-change-leadership-is-the-most-important-skill-of-the-21st-century/) \- Historically, change leadership and innovation was presumed to be the responsibility of a few rare individuals. Today we are in a very different situation.
### Want to learn more? Take the Change Leadership Challenge: [The Change Leadership Learning Series](https://www.s3t.org/change-leadership-learning-series/) is a set of lessons you can go through at your own pace.
###
---
## Final note for 2023
I hope this message finds you well, as we approach the end of another challenging year! I want to take a moment to express my deepest gratitude and admiration for your unwavering commitment to leading change and innovation. The fact that you take the time to read S3T and put its insights into practices sets you apart as a committed change leader.
The journey of a change leader can be filled with ups and downs, and often uphill battles. But I want you to know that your tireless efforts matter - perhaps to people who may never be able to thank you personally. But you will have made a life changing difference for them. In their quieter moments of reflection, they'll realize, *someone must have sacrificed and worked tirelessly to make this possible.*
In the challenges you faced this year, every hurdle is a valuable lesson learned. Each setback is an opportunity for growth, and every moment of doubt is a chance to strengthen your resolve. The skills and insights you've gained through your struggles will serve you well in your future achievements.
Thank you again for your commitment in 2023\. Know that your work is making a significant difference. Your leadership is a beacon of hope and a catalyst for change.
Looking ahead to 2024, I am confident - and you can be confident as well - that your efforts will bear fruit. Your impact on the community and the world of innovation will continue to grow, and inspire others to follow in your footsteps.
Wishing you a peaceful New Year's weekend, and looking forward to the remarkable achievements that await us in the coming year.
With heartfelt gratitude and warmest regards,
Ralph
###
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial advice. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed.*
### 🎄️S3T - Dec 22, 2023 Special Holiday Edition: AI patents and shell companies, Family, National dialogue, Wassail, Christmas Bird Count...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/dec-22-2023/
Last updated: 2023-12-22T06:28:21.000Z
*🔊* [Listen to this newsletter on the S3T Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org)
### Happy Friday and Happy Holidays! Welcome to the S3T Edition for December 22, 2023\.
In this special holiday edition, we'll share a perfect mix of need-to-know items to keep you informed and also help you be ready to enjoy your long Christmas Weekend. I hope you and your loved ones are all ready to savor the holiday season, relax and reflect.
We'll start with an Emerging Tech Update on an important new court ruling that is likely to set a precedent for how AI is governed and used. Then we'll share some insights about dialogue and relationships both at the family level - which is timely here in the holidays, as well as dialogue and relationships at the national and political level - which is also timely as we in the US enter a key election year.
In addition, we'll introduce you to an inspiring change leader, a holiday hit to add to your Christmas playlist, followed up with some Wassail recipes, and an outdoor activity for the whole family - The Annual Christmas Bird Count.
Thank you again for reading S3T and sharing its insights with others.
Happy Holidays,
Ralph
---
**About the Cover Image:**
*Peace to All* is a collaboration between a person (me) and an AI capability (ChatGPT 4+DALL-E). I attempted to prompt DALL-E to draw the entire scene as shown in the final cover image. DALL-E was unable to replicate a realistic northern lights display, and completely unable to render a peace symbol in an overhead perspective (seriously...the harder it tried the worse it got). So I modified the prompt to ask DALL-E simply to provide a wilderness scene with some tundra swans and an extra big sky. I then imported that DALL-E image into Sketchbook where I added in the atmospherics and the northern lights peace symbol by hand. [Go here to see the entire process with screenshots that show the progressive versions generated by DALL-E](https://www.s3t.org/chatgpt4-and-dalle3-attempt-a-christmas-cover/).
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial advice. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed.*
---
## 🤖️ Emerging Tech
### Can an AI entity patent something it invented?
This week the UK Supreme Court ruled in the case of Thaler vs Comptroller-General of Patents [that AI can NOT be an inventor for patent purposes](https://www.reuters.com/technology/ai-cannot-be-patent-inventor-uk-supreme-court-rules-landmark-case-2023-12-20/?ref=s3t.org). The ruling will likely set legal precedent in Europe and as well as other jurisdictions where patent law uses a "natural persons" clause allows only humans to apply for patents.
This appears likely to settle a long-running debate about whether AI agents could **for example design drugs and then automatically apply for patents.**
Try this prompt with ChatGPT and you'll see we aren't far off from this being a reality:
*Provide a novel design for a drug that enables people to overcome fear of heights, documenting the design in proper format, then create patent application for this design.*
Go [here to see the ChatGPT 4 response I got](https://chat.openai.com/share/8cb64f37-1fe9-47f4-a444-9c34b5952ba1?ref=s3t.org).
Now, if you're wondering, why would we want an AI entity to get its own patents? Read on...
### 🐚️ AI as the new shell company
While the court ruling is a good step, the debate about whether AI can be an inventor has a deeper dimension that needs to be understood, and policy and legal frameworks need to be updated accordingly. Let's unpack:
If an AI entity can:
- invent, receive patents for inventions, then
- own and operate a company that runs those inventions, while
- paying dividends to anonymous shareholders,
this sets up a very dangerous mix of conditions where the rule of law loses its ability to hold anyone accountable for harm and illegal acts.
Is there any history of something similar being done? Yes, actually, but less automated:
Capital managers and corporate law specialists have mastered the skill of maximizing profits while minimizing personal accountability by *using shell companies as disposable bearers of risk and liability*. **AI entities could feasibly enable a new generation of more empowered *autonomous* shell companies.**
The same players who benefitted so much from the traditional shell company concept can be expected to aggressively explore **the use of AI-powered autonomous entities as disposable bearers of liability and risk while protecting their ability to maximize profits from the activities of those autonomous entities.**
This same risk may also be imposed by Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs), particularly if powered by AI capabilities.
**Further reading:**
- Standford: [Most pressing dangers of AI](https://ai100.stanford.edu/gathering-strength-gathering-storms-one-hundred-year-study-artificial-intelligence-ai100-2021-1-0?ref=s3t.org)
- Oxford: [Artificial Intelligence as a positive and negative factor in global risk](https://academic.oup.com/book/40615/chapter-abstract/348239228?redirectedFrom=fulltext&login=false&ref=s3t.org)
- ISACA: [The Promise and Peril of the AI Revolution: Managing Risk](https://www.isaca.org/resources/white-papers/2023/the-promise-and-peril-of-the-ai-revolution?ref=s3t.org)
---
## 🎁️ How bout them Holidays
###
Family dialogue & relationships
Maybe your family is that perfect family in the Norman Rockwell paintings. You all root for the same sports team, vote the same way, and agree about everything, and there are no taboo topics.
If you don't belong to that perfect family, here's timely help for the holidays: [12 Tips for handling family scenarios](https://www.npr.org/2023/12/14/1196978388/techniques-to-help-cope-with-family-fights-during-the-holidays?ref=s3t.org) that come up during the holidays: Unwanted questions, sensitive topics, poor behaviors, hey it happens. Brush up on the best ways to take care of yourself (and your loved ones) while increasing the chances of keeping the peace.
### National level dialogue
Related, but on the bigger picture level: I encourage you all to read “[When the NY Times Lost its Way](https://www.economist.com/1843/2023/12/14/when-the-new-york-times-lost-its-way?ref=s3t.org).” The article, written by James Bennet who worked at the New York Times and then Atlantic, shares a cogent diagnosis of what is wrong with our national dialogue right now: we tell people what to think instead of helping them think for themselves. **This applies equally to both sides of the political spectrum.**
Couple reasons the article resonated with me:
- It validates the concerns many S3T members have about the isolated thinking that people on the left and right both get stuck in.
- It also proves the wisdom of those S3T members who intentionally engage people with different views.
While it may be tricky, its vital to engage with people who have different views. Engaging doesn't mean you have to agree. **But if you ever hope to be influential, you want to understand how they arrived at their current beliefs** \- and what they are afraid will happen if they dare to think differently.
Speaking of engaging people with different views, the next section below features an inspiring example. This person engaged with individuals who had diametrically opposed - and hateful - viewpoints, and succeeded in convincing them to change.
---
## 🎹️ Holiday inspiration & music: Daryl Davis
Daryl Davis to me is an inspiring example of a change leader who has worked fearlessly to overcome prejudice. [Through an unconventional way of reaching out and building trust](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daryl%5FDavis?ref=s3t.org), Daryl is believed to have been [responsible for 200 people leaving the Klan](https://www.npr.org/2017/08/20/544861933/how-one-man-convinced-200-ku-klux-klan-members-to-give-up-their-robes?ref=s3t.org).
[Here is a recent interview with Daryl](https://www.delmarvapublicmedia.org/2023-08-07/boogie-woogie-master-and-racial-reconciliator-daryl-davis-to-play-maryland-folk-festival?ref=s3t.org), done just ahead of the Maryland Folk Festival.
[**Davis is also an accomplished musician**](https://www.daryldavis.com/?ref=s3t.org)**, and here is his holiday hit for your Christmas Playlist:** [**Santa Claus Boogie**](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=soP8U6VMjvI&ref=s3t.org)**.**
---
## Sensible Ideas: Wassail for your holiday get-togethers
### Bless the trees
They say if you like apple cider, you'll love Wassail. Wassail is a drink with a long history connected to the ancient winter celebration of Wassailing - blessing the orchards in the dead of winter with a celebration that included [drinking, dancing, banging pots and pans to wake the trees](https://gowildgowest.co.uk/wassailing/?ref=s3t.org) (for a good harvest in the year to come). by pouring cider on the tree roots and in some versions, tying bread to the branches of the trees.
### Make your own Wassail this Christmas!
- Here is a [non-alcholic Wassail family recipe from Lauren Allen](https://tastesbetterfromscratch.com/hot-wassail/?ref=s3t.org)
- [Cookie and Kate's Wassail recipe includes bourbon](https://cookieandkate.com/wassail-cocktail/?ref=s3t.org).
---
## 🐦️ Nature Notes: Christmas Bird Count
##
On Christmas Day 1900, Frank Chapman and 26 other conservationists did the first Christmas Bird Count (CBC) The idea was to promote conservation by counting, rather than hunting, birds. Now a favorite annual tradition and long-running program of the National Audubon Society, the CBC is celebrating over 120 years of community science involvement.
The Christmas Bird Count it is an early-winter bird census, where thousands of volunteers go outdoors over a 24-hour period on one calendar day to count birds. [**Read the full history here.**](https://ncbirdatlas.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=799a48b414dbbfef46f6d3ac6&id=c83dbf3198&e=b6d6b52178&ref=s3t.org)
This year's CBC takes place between December 14, 2023 to January 5, 2024\. [Go here to join and be part of this tradition](https://www.audubon.org/conservation/join-christmas-bird-count?ref=s3t.org)!
---
Photo by [Chanan Greenblatt](https://unsplash.com/@chanan?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### Final Note: Reflecting on what you did this year
*I want to take a minute to say thank you, and be mindful of the intentional change leadership work and results you did this year.*
Whatever corner of the world you were working in this year, if you were a regular reader of this newsletter, it mean that you were committing time to learning about change leadership, and focusing on how to bring intentional beneficial innovation. You were going above and beyond to increase your effectiveness so you could be ready to serve your customers and stakeholder needs in a more impactful way. This speaks highly of you, and of your future potential and impact.
You have very likely enabled positive results, benefits and impacts on individuals and groups who may never be able to thank you for what you did, **but your work made a positive difference for them just the same.** So I thank you for all that you have done this year.
Thank you also for reading and sharing S3T with others. It matters. The more we can equip and empower people to bring needed change - intentional beneficial change and innovation - the more we can make meaningful progress solving the key challenges of the 21st century. It means a lot to me to know that this matters to you. Thank you for what you are doing to bring needed change.
*Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas!*
Ralph
### 🛢️S3T Dec 15, 2023 - COP28 & the BOA, Clean energy jobs, Market power, Millennial women investors, Winter moths, Effective collaboration
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-dec-15-2023/
Last updated: 2023-12-15T06:28:07.000Z
---
### 😎️Happy Friday! Hope you are ready for a nice weekend! In this edition of S3T:
- **Macroeconomics:** COP 28 climate summit shows the Big Oil Addiction will be hard to break. The Fed pauses hikes, economists continue to question what the hikes accomplished.
- **Emerging Tech:** Big Tech companies have learned how to leverage *market power* to run legal monopolies. Women are becoming more prominent in Angel Investing.
- **Nature Notes:** Cold weather moths thrive in surprisingly cool conditions.
- **Special Change Leadership Feature on Effective Collaboration:** *simple shifts in our thinking can lead to extraordinary changes in teamwork and innovation*
🔊 [Listen to this edition on the S3T Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org) (and forward to a friend!)
---
##
Photo by [Gustavo Quepón](https://unsplash.com/@unandalusgus?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## 🛢️COP 28 shows the Big Oil Addiction will be hard to break
COP28 closed this week [with a press release claiming "the beginning of the end" of the fossil fuel era](https://unfccc.int/cop28?ref=s3t.org).
Negotiations at COP28 - the UN's annual climate summit [went into overtime](https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/cop28-presidency-wants-historic-mention-fossil-fuels-text-up-nations-2023-12-12/?ref=s3t.org) this week as representatives argued about the goal of phasing out fossil fuels. Fossil fuel advocates turned out in force this year, prompting some to ask [whether COP is still a climate summit or an oil industry trade show](https://twitter.com/SophieScamps/status/1734687275337023795?ref=s3t.org)?
### No Science?
Sultan Al Jaber [retracted statements he made at the COP 28 meeting](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/12/03/climate/cop28-al-jaber-fossil-fuel-phase-out/index.html?ref=s3t.org) after he - as the COP 28 President no less - claimed "[there is ‘no science’ behind demands for phase-out of fossil fuels.](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/03/back-into-caves-cop28-president-dismisses-phase-out-of-fossil-fuels?ref=s3t.org)"
COP - or Conference of the Parties - is the UN gathering that established the Paris Agreement and continues to mobilize international action on climate. Some observers worry the oil industry [is learning how to influence COP 28 to slow the transition away from fossil fuels](https://ground.news/article/as-fossil-fuel-execs-descend-on-un-climate-summit-some-ask-what-are-cops-about?ref=s3t.org).
**Still it's amazing to me that the prospect of fossil fuel phase-down and phase-out is being openly discussed in a forum that includes oil executives.** Such a thing was not believed possible just a few years back. COP28's claim that this is the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era is not backed by an clear execution plan or timeline. But at the same time, it is driving the conversation, and forcing oil companies to reposition themselves as energy companies. See [BP's Reimagining Energy](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/news-and-insights/reimagining-energy.html?ref=s3t.org) for an example.
### How to break the big oil addition:
Strategy for speeding the transition to clean energy is no mystery: Create clean energy jobs that are safer, pay better and have better benefits, **and do so in the specific areas where "dirty energy" workers are employed.** They'll make the transition themselves. Kentucky has [twice as many clean energy workers as coal miners as of 2018](https://www.edf.org/energy/clean-energy-jobs?ref=s3t.org). Employees are not likely to stay in poorer paying jobs when better paying jobs are available.
Further Reading:
- [2023 US Energy and Employment Report](https://www.energy.gov/policy/us-energy-employment-jobs-report-useer?ref=s3t.org): Clean energy jobs grew at 3.8% - higher than overall economy job growth of 3.1%.
- Considering a clean energy or environmental job? [Start exploring clean energy career paths at Terra.do](https://www.terra.do/?ref=s3t.org).
---
## 📈️ Macro: Inflation Games
This week, on Wednesday, the Fed met for the final time in 2023, [on the heels of higher than expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) data](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/view-nov-us-cpi-uptick-not-fed-incentive-early-ease-2023-12-12/?ref=s3t.org), but decided [not to raise rates any further, and dropped hints of rate cuts in 2024](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/fed-likely-hold-rates-steady-signal-couple-cuts-2024-2023-12-13/?ref=s3t.org). The stock market closed [above 37k for the first time ever](https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-flat-ahead-of-fed-magnificent-seven-mixed-as-tesla-falls/?ref=s3t.org).
Karl Smith questions [whether the rate hikes actually contributed at all](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-12-07/the-federal-reserve-s-interest-rate-increases-have-been-meaningless?ref=s3t.org) to the slow down in inflation. This aligns to another set of economists view as noted in a recent edition of S3T: [the Fed's rate hikes didn't help - they made things worse.](https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/the-revenge-of-the-inflation-doves?ref=s3t.org)
**Background (for paid memberships)** [Inflation perspectives: Why 2020s inflation is different thanks to 3 drivers](https://www.s3t.org/inflation-perspectives/).
"Market Power" is one of the sources of inflation we see, as discussed in the next section.
---
## 🧐️ Emerging Tech
### Big Tech's *Market Power*
Big Tech companies have learned how to leverage *market power* to run legal monopolies. This in turn has an inflationary effect on prices.
Mordecai Kurz explores how big tech brands - a category of super-monopolies not envisioned in classic economic frameworks - [use market power to overcome the constraints that free market competition should normally impose](https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/technology-innovation-how-monopolization-and-anticompetitive-market-power-work-by-mordecai-kurz-2023-12?ref=s3t.org).
These companies resort to a playbook that allows them to grow and maintain their market power. A few of the proven tactics:
- Frequent technology updates
- Acquisition of competitors
- Creation of inter-dependent ecosystems that force lock-in and additional purchases, or force newcomers into feudal serfdom (Apple store for example?).
Despite a muddled line of reasoning around Apple's dominance, the article above (and the book it summarizes) makes an important contribution to better understanding of our modern economy.
**Kurz accurately brings into focus a new kind of power that has emerged: Market Power.** By crystallizing this new power and its uses, Kurz delivers insights worth factoring into economic plans and policies going forward. We are no longer in an economic era where simplistic notions like "free market!" offer effective leverage for desired outcomes.
### Millennial Women as Angel Investors in Tech Startups
💡
"You will be missing out on a meaningful part of wealth creation if you’re not taking advantage of this unique piece of our ecosystem,"
**37% of Angel Investors are now women** per research from the University of New Hampshire's [Center for Venture Research](https://paulcollege.unh.edu/center-venture-research?ref=s3t.org). Women - especially the millennial cohort - [are embracing angel investing at higher rates than ever](https://www.fastcompany.com/90995239/why-millennial-women-are-embracing-angel-investing??ref=s3t.org).
---
## ❄️ Nature Notes: Cold Weather Moths and Butterflies
We think of Moths and Butterflies as citizens of summer, but did you know that there are hardy cold weather species as well? Here are a couple photos I took recently in November. I was surprised to find these visiting the remnants of a flower bed near the shops at Saxapahaw, NC.
Checkered Skipper - Taken in late November in Saxapahaw, NC
Long Tailed Skipper - Taken in late November in Saxapahaw, NC
[Bruce Spanworm Moth (Operophtera bruceata)Operophtera bruceata, the bruce spanworm, or (in North America) ‘winter moth’ is a species of moth of the family Geometridae. It is found from coast to coast in southern Canada and the northern parts of the United States. (Source: Wikipedia, ″, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operophtera\_bruceata, CC BY-SA 3.0 . Photo: (c) Larry Clarfeld, some rights reserved (CC BY-NC), uploaded by Larry Clarfeld)iNaturalist](https://www.inaturalist.org/taxa/121236-Operophtera-bruceata?ref=s3t.org)
The Winter Moth
**See also:** [Guide to Winter Moths of the UK](https://butterfly-conservation.org/news-and-blog/fascinating-facts-about-winter-moths?ref=s3t.org) \- Learn about the December Moth, The Herald Moth and more.
---
### S3T is the irreplaceable companion for people who will lead change in 2024\. S3T insights and learning paths are delivered via weekly newsletter, podcast, and a knowledge portal - arranged in tiers that match your needs.
###
To sign up for your S3T Paid Membership: [Click here to start your 14 day free trial!](https://www.s3t.org/14-day-free-trial)
**About the Cover Image**
Dalle-3 Image showing the earth being suffocated by a boa constrictor representing the world's fossil fuel companies (whose logos are depicted in its skin patterns.
Prompt: The planet Earth is seen suspended in space. A giant boa constrictor is coiled around the earth, squeezing it. The boa constrictor's skin pattern utilizes the logos of leading oil companies (Dalle3 refused to put recognizable oil company brands in the drawing - let's use our imaginations...).
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial advice. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed.*
---
Photo by [Julien de Salaberry](https://unsplash.com/@desalaberry?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Special Feature for Paying Members
### **Effective Collaboration: Overcoming Mental Barriers and Embracing Team Success**
*Discover how simple shifts in our thinking can lead to extraordinary changes in teamwork and innovation. Don't miss this chance to turn thoughts into action for positive change!*
Can you think of an example of really effective collaboration?
We talk a lot about collaboration, but effective collaboration doesn’t happen as often as we would like. We often stop collaboration from happening without realizing it.
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### 🍻️ S3T Dec 8, 2023 - Special Edition: Crypto Year in Review & the Assets that Thrived in Tough Times
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-dec-8-crypto-year-in-review/
Last updated: 2023-12-08T06:28:19.000Z
🔊 [Listen to this edition on the S3T Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org)
*I've been a student and observer of the crypto sector for years now because I recognize that the capabilities being built represent a new set of financial building blocks - new building blocks that are enabling the next chapter in financial innovation. The past 24 months have been tough. Scandals, economic challenges, loss of credibility and trust. But despite this, positive sentiment, and perhaps a bull market has returned. It's a perfect time to look back on the year, and especially to look back on which projects and assets demonstrated growth and strength even in these most difficult times.*
## 🤑️ **Right now, every crypto asset or project looks like gold.**
Here in Q4*,* almost all crypto assets have spiked, and there is talk of crypto spring and the next crypto bull market. Bitcoin is back in 40Ks. Any day now the SEC might drop one or more approvals allowing traditional investment firms to offer crypto investments to their clients.
**But wouldn't it be helpful to see which crypto assets exhibited resilience even in the hard times of the past 18 months? Which ones demonstrated staying power *and even growth* during the worst times?**
### Before the Bump: 12-month snapshot taken in Oct 2023
In mid-October, I did a review of the public price charts of the more popular digital assets. I broke them into 4 categories based on the appearance of their 1-year price chart (Oct 2022-Oct 2023) and their all-time price charts (ie the entire duration of their existence).
*As always, the standard caveat applies: this is not financial advice. Investing is risky, and you need to work with a registered investment advisor with the appropriate expertise. Together you can tailor an investment plan to your specific goals, risk tolerance and other factors.*
### **Crypto assets 2022-2023: 4 patterns observed**
- UP - the price of this asset stayed on an unmistakably upward trend
- UP & DOWN - the price of this asset was volatile, up and down.
- DOWN - the price of this asset stayed on an unmistakably downward trend
- FLATLINED - the price of this asset looks like it just went not only down, but down and flatlined...as if dead.
My goal was to categorize assets based on a simple visual pattern that anyone would agree with if they looked at the same chart. **These 4 patterns seemed to be the most likely to be agreed on by the widest audience, and the least likely to be subject to interpretation.**
### **What the 4 patterns mean**
- **UP** \- the price of this asset stayed on an unmistakably upward trend even when most other assets were not. This says something about persistent investor faith, and or consistent usage from a community that finds value in it. This in turn says things about the leadership team and the developers maintaining and enhancing the platform. People held on to this asset and kept buying it either because they were investors who believed in it, or because they were users/customers engaging in transactions that boosted the demand and price for the asset.
- **UP & DOWN** \- the price of this asset was volatile, up and down. This asset had good days/months and bad ones. These assets may be volatile due to lower market caps, or because they could have been the target of short-term opportunistic investors who favor volatile assets.
- **DOWN** \- the price of this asset stayed on an unmistakably downward trend. This trend can suggest a couple of things - one, that the asset was overpriced and is finding its new level. This suggests that the assets leadership team is struggling to retain talent, deliver useful features, and attract/retain investors.
- **FLATLINED** \- the price of this asset looks like it just went not only down, but down and flat...as if dead. This trend suggests that the asset has been abandoned by its end-user community, its tech talent, and its investors.
### **The assets and their patterns as of October 2023**
**UP in 2023**
- Bitcoin
- Ethereum
- Optimism
- MakerDAO
- Stacks
- Render
**UP & DOWN in 2023**
- Chainlink (slightly positive)
- Solana (positive in past months up \~300% since Nov 2022)
- XRP - spikes due to positive verdict, unclear investor thesis
- Litecoin
- API3
**DOWN in 2023**
- Arbitrum
- Aptos
- Cosmos
- Polygon
- Uniswap\*
- DeSo\*
\*(barely escaped being put in flatline category)
**FLATLINED in 2023**
- Filecoin
- Avalanche
- Cardano
- Skale
- Audius
- Sei
**Keep in mind, here in December all or nearly all of these are sharply higher. But not all of them kept a stable or upward trajectory during the tough times of the past 18 months.**
### **Themes that surfaced or strengthened in 2023**
- The emergence of “blue chip” assets: BTC, ETH so far, thanks largely to Fidelity Investment Thesis papers. (See [Fidelity Investment Thesis for Ethereum](https://www.fidelitydigitalassets.com/research-and-insights/ethereum-investment-thesis?ref=s3t.org), and [Fidelity Investment Thesis for Bitcoin (PDF)](https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwj7hoDnu%5F6CAxVeEVkFHUqFCicQFnoECBYQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.fidelitydigitalassets.com%2Fsites%2Fdefault%2Ffiles%2Fdocuments%2Fbitcoin-alternative-investment.pdf&usg=AOvVaw3PVF4i1wBdj7edeQ5jx2x6&opi=89978449)).
- Growing gap between assets that have or don’t have critical mass adoption or critical mass developer community. This gap might narrow if we are truly heading into a bull market.
- This crypto developer community shrunk in 2022 but is significantly larger than it was 2 years ago. This [deep dive into the size of the crypto developer community](https://www.developerreport.com/blog/newsletter-20231018?ref=s3t.org) shows 19.3K monthly active public developers in crypto - down 27% from Oct 2022 but still up 66% from Oct 2020\.
- Investors are starting to learn how to evaluate crypto assets (More about this in the next section).
### Questions crypto investors are learning to ask when considering crypto assets
Digital asset investors have not as a rule evaluated digital assets using traditional investment methods, but rather invested based on beliefs ("Bitcoin is the future") or based on superficial indicators like tweets, price spikes, or flimsy press releases about "exciting partnerships".
We can hope this era is over, but if traditional investing and human nature are indicators, sentiment-driven investment is here to stay.
That said, the crypto market delivered some pretty harsh lessons over the past 2 years, and most digital currencies - even with the recent spikes - are still way down from their hype-driven highs.
I believe more and more investors will follow the kind of thesis-driven approach that Fidelity and Messari.io are introducing, asking tougher questions before they commit funds to crypto investments.
### The Tough Questions to Ask
The tough line of questioning shared below rolls up to one big question: *Are there reasons to believe that the digital currency itself will grow in value over time?*
- **Does the world need this solution? Is it being adopted?** Will the currency reach sustained critical mass usage? (Some projects don't seem to offer unique or even viable solutions to real-world problems).
- **Is the solution maturing?** Is there a sufficiently talented and consistent team working on it and growing its maturity? Is the leadership team demonstrating reliability and ethics?
- Do any of the working mechanisms of the platform, transactions, org structure, and financial management point to **any reasonable likelihood of value increase for those *holding* the currency?** Or will the value accrue to some other beneficiary?
- Even if usage increases, **will insiders will sell their stakes as soon as retail investors flood in, and then sink the prices?** For an example of this, look at the trendline of *most* of the crypto-currencies that go live on crypto exchanges: big spike in the first 36 hours followed by months of downward trend.
- What other factors may cause the price to deteriorate over time even if the usage of the platform goes up?
- What is in place to ward off negative outcomes?
Getting clear answers to these kinds of questions has been notoriously difficult, and the noise chamber on TwitterX and the online tech press doesn't help.
**Very Typical Example of Misleading Press/Social Media posts (not naming names to protect the guilty):** One oracle sector crypto project announced a working relationship with an impressive international finance entity. Over the summer more PR pieces went out. Reading the pieces one gets the impression we're on the brink of a huge breakthrough where traditional finance finally capitulates to decentralized finance. A few months later a muted press release came out from the international finance group. This mentioned the crypto project but indicated that the "partnership" had been a temporary experiment/demo, and made no mention of any investments or commitments.
In Oct the same crypto company shared another press release saying that an international bank had partnered with them. But a close read of the piece suggests that this is just another experiment/demo. So is this really the merging of tradfi and defi (as the enthusiastic buzz pieces implied?) or was this a series of exploratory exercises that ended with no clear commitments?
This kind of "fog" complicates an investor's ability to form a clear thesis about the potential of specific assets. It also creates an optics problem for those who are diligently trying to build a more equitable inclusive modern financial system. For every one of these quiet builders, there are several noisemakers pedaling dubious schemes.
## 🔮 Looking forward: 2024 and beyond
Several things to watch for in 2024:
- Anticipated ETF Approvals from the SEC will in theory bring a flood of new investments into Bitcoin, Ethereum and possibly other assets. Also in play here is the incumbent finance sector's fear of disruption - on display in this week's [bizarre Warren-Dimon theatrics in the Senate](https://qz.com/banking-adversaries-elizabeth-warren-and-jamie-dimon-ha-1851079753?ref=s3t.org).
- The [Bitcoin halving in April 2024](https://beincrypto.com/bitcoin-halving-network-hash-rate-jpmorgan/?ref=s3t.org): Halving is Bitcoin's built-in inflation control mechanism that reduces miner rewards by half every four years. It has - in the Bitcoin community - been associated with bull market runs.
- Market exuberance in [Anticipation of a new crypto bull run](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/5-tips-to-help-you-prepare-for-the-next-crypto-bull-run?ref=s3t.org) \- a sustained period of upward trends in prices.
- New Advisors - in 2024 a large new cohort of Registered Investment Advisors (RIAs) will likely be advising clients on crypto investments for the first time. This likelihood is based on initial communication that is going out now from large investment banks - basically "prepping" their client base to be ready to allocate funds to riskier assets. For a flavor, see the materials that Fidelity [has published for investors and investment advisors here](https://institutional.fidelity.com/app/item/RD%5F9905084/the-advisors-guide-to-digital-assets.html?selectedActivities%5B0%5D.selectedActivityCode=TBNM&selectedActivities%5B0%5D.selectedActivityTx=all&selectedActivities%5B1%5D.selectedActivityCode=DEPT&selectedActivities%5B1%5D.selectedActivityTx=ALL&pos=contentItem&ref=s3t.org).
Together these factors will prompt thoughtful investors to **ask their advisors pointed questions (like the list shared above) - and be very wary of advice or "opportunities" that lack specifics and use over-hyped language.**
In addition: Thoughtful investors will consider **what to do when the market or asset prices plunge. This is not a possibility, it's an *inevitability*.** (Do you put in your entire allocation all at once, or do you put some in now, and be ready to put more in if more attractive (lower) prices present themselves?)
### 📚️ Do your own research and get educated
As always, do your own research, and work with qualified advisor with experience in crypto. Here are a few ways to educate yourself.
- [Coindesk's DACS](https://www.coindesk.com/dacs/?ref=s3t.org) provides an excellent overview of the wide array of crypto assets categories by industry sector. Can help answer the question "Why does this asset exist? What current or future need is it meeting?"
- [Messario.io](https://messari.io/?ref=s3t.org) \- charts and research on individual assets. Really good end-of-year overviews as well.
- [Crypto Fundraising Tracker](https://crypto-fundraising.info/?ref=s3t.org) \- tracks crypto fundraising rounds, including amounts raised and firms making the investments.
- **Historic Crypto Market Cap movement.** It's helpful to track the relative rankings of crypto assets as they move up and down the market cap rankings list. CoinMarketCap has an easy to use URL that let's you quickly see how specific assets have moved up to down in a given period of time. Use this URL structure: [https://coinmarketcap.com/historical/20230311/](https://coinmarketcap.com/historical/20230311/?ref=s3t.org) and change the date at the end of the URL to see the top 200 assets by market rank for that specific date. You can open 2 or more browser windows then check multiple specific dates (say the beginning of the last 6 quarters) and notice how specific assets have moved up or down during that time.
As the adoption of crypto and blockchain-based architectures grows, more and more companies will be drawn into discussions and decisions about how and when to add these assets to their holdings or leverage these technologies in their business strategies. Taking time to get educated - together with your leadership and engineering teams - can make a significant positive difference in your eventual outcomes.
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial advice. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed.*
*This week's Cover Image: Dalle3 Drawing from Prompt: "In the style of cute Japanese anime draw a picture of a bull dressed for work, saying goodbye to a tired bear wearing pajamas and getting into bed just as the sun - a bright shiny bitcoin - comes up over the horizon."*
---
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---
### ❄️ S3T - Dec 1, 2023 - AI Power struggles, CPI, economic evolution, GenAI legal action, Tricking LLMs, Eth ETF, Holiday giving guide.
URL: https://www.s3t.org/dec-1/
Last updated: 2023-12-01T06:43:22.000Z
### 😎️Happy Friday! Hope you are ready for a nice weekend! In this edition of S3T:
- **Macroeconomics:** Yes, inflation is slowing. No, the central banks do NOT deserve credit. Return to office is dead. The way economies are built is changing.
- **Emerging Tech:** OpenAI's power struggle. GenAI drives groupthink among professionals who use it. Researchers trick LLMs into revealing their training data.
- **Nature Notes:** The Hardiness Zones are changing. Where to read financial disclosures. Nature-friendly holiday shopping.
---
## Macro: Signals for Change Leaders
This week the [Fed signaled that it may be done with rate hikes](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-waller-increasingly-confident-policy-is-right-spot-2023-11-28/?ref=s3t.org) but that rates may stay higher for longer. Overall [economic momentum is slowing](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-third-quarter-economic-growth-revised-up-52-2023-11-29/?ref=s3t.org): while GDP was revised upward, consumer spending is down.
### Yes, inflation is slowing. No, the central banks do NOT deserve credit
The specific inflation indicators that alarmed the Fed were always going to correct on their own and [the Fed's rate hikes didn't help - they made things worse argues this set of economists.](https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/the-revenge-of-the-inflation-doves?ref=s3t.org) Why they're pointing this out now:
- The rate of inflation cooled to 3.2% in October ([down from 9% in June 2022](https://www.statista.com/statistics/273418/unadjusted-monthly-inflation-rate-in-the-us/?ref=s3t.org))
- This doesn't change anything for working families who are still paying way more for everything than they were in 2019 (see John's Hopkins Krieger School chart below). [Most prices are not falling](https://krieger.jhu.edu/financial-economics/2023/11/15/why-dont-americans-believe-inflation-is-coming-down/?ref=s3t.org).
John Hopkins Krieger School - [Why Don’t Americans Believe Inflation Is Coming Down? Because (Most) Prices Aren’t](https://krieger.jhu.edu/financial-economics/2023/11/15/why-dont-americans-believe-inflation-is-coming-down/?ref=s3t.org)
---
### 🍹️The cocktail that got us here
Drawing from several works not previously examined together, Roge Karma gives [a panoramic history of America's economic misfortunes](https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/11/new-deal-us-economy-american-dream/676051/?ref=s3t.org) and the inflection points that drove them. Two excerpts:
- "No other advanced economy pivoted quite as sharply to free-market economics as the United States, and none experienced as sharp a reversal in income, mobility, and public-health trends as America did."
- "Of Americans born in 1940, 92 percent went on to earn more than their parents; among those born in 1980, [just 50 percent](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aal4617?ref=s3t.org) did...Today, a child born in Norway or the United Kingdom has a far better chance of outearning their parents than one born in the U.S."
Karma shows how **a cocktail of 3 toxic ingredients** \- racist reactions to civil rights, progressive elitism, and the 1970s inflation crisis - set up the dynamic of economic decisions and political agendas that led to the current financial instability.
Highly recommended for anyone who wants to understand the financial innovation opportunities we face today.
### Economic evolution
In previous eras, economies were structured and governed by laws implemented imperfectly by governments and citizens. We seem to be headed for a new era where economies are being structured by code. See the graphic below:
###
### RIP Return to Office
The data shows [Return to Office is dead](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/30/return-to-office-is-dead-stanford-economist-says-heres-why.html?ref=s3t.org) says this Standford researcher who also found that employees equate being forced back to the office with an 8% raise. Key points that got overlooked in the Return to Office fervor:
- Daily commutes remove a massive amount of valuable time from a worker's best hours
- When people meet in person, there can be a boost in communication, bonding and collaboration. But this positive boost doesn't persist day after day. We have decades of pre-pandemic data showing abysmal engagement and collaboration from people stuck in cubicle land.
- In the US, [mental health among workers is improving](https://www.benefitspro.com/2023/10/05/the-mental-health-of-u-s-employees-is-on-the-rise-but-will-it-stay-that-way/?slreturn=20230908213645&ref=s3t.org) due to greater work-life balance associated with remote work options. See also this [Cisco study (PDF)](https://www.cisco.com/c/dam/m/en%5Fus/solutions/global-hybrid-work-study/reports/cisco-global-hybrid-work-study-2022.pdf?ref=s3t.org), and the [Future Forum survey (PDF)](https://futureforum.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/Future-Forum-Pulse-Report-Summer-2022.pdf?ref=s3t.org).
Related: [3 reasons why some companies tried to force employees back to work](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/study-study-shows-working-home-130000724.html?ref=s3t.org) (not all of them good).
---
## Emerging Tech
### What is surfacing from the OpenAI power struggle
Sam Altman's sudden firing from OpenAI [and subsequent return](https://www.theverge.com/2023/11/22/23967223/sam-altman-returns-ceo-open-ai?ref=s3t.org) has a couple of layers. On its face, it shows the dangers of the right hand not talking to the left: in this case the product/profit-driven stakeholders and the research/non-profit stakeholders were apparently locked a power struggle complicated by festering mistrust and an alleged secret project "Q". OpenAI had a unique board structure intended to reflect its goal of beneficial AI.
The layer underneath is what's interesting. This is a microcosm of the economic power struggle that plays out every time technology advances.
When groundbreaking technologies emerge, they create power struggles:
- Nuclear weapons are the go-to historical example (with the power struggle of control vs proliferation still playing out).
- AI and digital currencies are the two current examples we are most aware of.
- Less obvious, but very real, is a power struggle within healthcare over data standards.
- Quantum computing - as it matures - may spawn another power struggle.
Dalle3 Image from Prompt: In the style of medieval European paintings, Depict the power struggle that often erupts over new technologies, showing one side wishing to be more conservative while the other wants to be more aggressive in using the technology.
### The Power Struggle
On one side, there are innovators and entrepreneurs, enthusiastic about the potential of these technologies. Their focus is on developing new products, gaining a competitive edge, and generating profits. They argue that if they don't advance and utilize these technologies swiftly, other competitors might take the lead.
On the other side are the cautious stakeholders. They prioritize deliberate change, safety, fairness, ethical considerations, and not infrequently self-interest. Their concern is that if these technologies are not handled responsibly, they could lead to harmful consequences or even existential risks. They advocate for a more measured approach, emphasizing the need for safety protocols and ethical guidelines.
Sam Altman's firing and rehiring mirrors the broader conversation about the responsible use of powerful, disruptive technologies. **One group doesn't want to miss a crucial opportunity. The other doesn't want to allow harm. The messy reality**: **neither can truly succeed without the other.**
### Gen AI Lawsuits
Matthew Butterick is [leading a legal crusade](https://www.wired.com/story/matthew-butterick-ai-copyright-lawsuits-openai-meta/?ref=s3t.org) to ensure that creative works are not exploited by Big Tech AI training processes. At issue: Big Tech companies used creative works without permission to train their AI models. Those models now can be used to create similar creative works with no compensation to the original creators.
[OpenAI has evaded questions about training data](https://www.theverge.com/2023/3/15/23640180/openai-gpt-4-launch-closed-research-ilya-sutskever-interview?ref=s3t.org), but some [researchers are finding ways to trick ChatGPT into revealing](https://not-just-memorization.github.io/extracting-training-data-from-chatgpt.html?ref=s3t.org) at least some of its training data (one [extraction example here](https://chat.openai.com/share/456d092b-fb4e-4979-bea1-76d8d904031f?ref=s3t.org)).
These AI firms are once again following a proven pattern:
- Find an asset that isn't protected
- Appropriate it then incorporate it into a product or service
- Wring out big profits
**Historic perspective:** Big Tech did this with personal data as they built their large platforms and billion-dollar business margins: they took advantage of the fact that the legal system had not yet evolved to protect the data and privacy of individuals. It's ethically similar to the historic appropriation of Indigenous lands and resources simply because they happen to not be under the protection of a recognized regime.
**Also Notable:** This BCG Harvard MIT study found that [using Gen AI technology reduced a group's diversity of thought by 41%](https://www.bcg.com/publications/2023/how-people-create-and-destroy-value-with-gen-ai?ref=s3t.org).
### Ethereum ETFs
Fidelity has [applied for SEC approval of an Ethereum Exchange Traded Fund](https://cointelegraph.com/news/fidelity-spot-ethereum-etf?ref=s3t.org). The filing pointedly noted that **if spot ETFs had been available in the US**, **some of the fallout from the FTX scandal could have been avoided.**
---
Photo by [James Wheeler](https://unsplash.com/@souvenirpixels?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Nature Notes
### Finally the Gardening Map is changing
Some plants will [grow earlier and farther north thanks to climate change](https://www.npr.org/2023/11/17/1213600629/-it-feels-like-im-not-crazy-gardeners-arent-surprised-as-usda-updates-key-map?ref=s3t.org). The USDA manages a map of "plant hardiness zones" which gardeners use as a guide of what to plant when, and what will successfully grow in their specific zone. You may see these maps on the backs of seed packets.
[‘It feels like I’m not crazy.’ Gardeners aren’t surprised as USDA updates key mapThe USDA is updating an important map for gardeners and growers picking plants and flowers. The new map shows the contiguous U.S. is about 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the last map 11 years ago.NPRJulia Simon](https://www.npr.org/2023/11/17/1213600629/-it-feels-like-im-not-crazy-gardeners-arent-surprised-as-usda-updates-key-map?utm%5Fsource=pocket-newtab-en-us)
### The natural setting for financial success
This unassuming caretaker of a mobile home park [left $3.8M to his small town](https://apnews.com/article/new-hampshire-town-gift-frugal-millionaire-holt-994a9448623c51db5036b85dd563fb24?ref=s3t.org) after a quiet life of frugality and careful investing. My favorite quote from the piece: **"Holt would find a quiet place to sit near a brook and study financial publications."**
---
### Nature-Friendly Gifts for the Holiday Season
- [Jetty offers coastal styles and activewear made from oyster shells](https://jettylife.com/collections/oystex?ref=s3t.org)
- [Adidas Parley offers shoes and sportswear](https://www.adidas.com/us/parley?grid=true&ref=s3t.org) made from recycled ocean plastic. [Their origin story](https://parley.tv/initiatives/adidasxparley?ref=s3t.org) will inspire innovators and change leaders.
- [Conscious Step](https://consciousstep.com/?ref=s3t.org) offers shopping that supports specific causes. For example, shop for [socks whose sales proceeds go to protect specific endangered species](https://consciousstep.com/collections/protect-endangered-animals?ref=s3t.org).
- [Wolf and Badger](https://www.wolfandbadger.com/?ref=s3t.org) \- Online shop for the world's best independent ethical brands.
- [Cornell's Bird Academy](https://academy.allaboutbirds.org/course-list/?utm%5Fcampaign=BA%20holiday%20sale%202022&utm%5Fsource=AAB&utm%5Fmedium=lightbox&utm%5Fterm=holiday%5Fsale%5F2022) offers a rich array of online courses for every level of artist, photographer, bird watcher or nature lover.
---
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### 🦃️ S3T Nov 24, 2023: Special Thanksgiving Week Edition - Staying Timeless in the Era of No Time
URL: https://www.s3t.org/timeless/
Last updated: 2023-11-25T20:46:05.000Z
---
****Happy Friday!** ****Hope you all had a wonderful Thanksgiving and are taking some time to live at a little more intentional pace, enjoy the season, and reflect.** This week I want to share a special set of thoughts about staying connected to the timeless enduring elements and principles of life, even as the world seems to run at a faster and faster pace.
🔊 [Listen to this edition on the S3T Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org)
### Time to be human
*The irony: nearly every influence in the 21st Century tells us "There is no time to waste!" but little thought is given to defining what is and is not a waste of time.*
As Thomas Friedman expounded in [*Thank You for Being Late*](https://www.thomaslfriedman.com/thank-you-for-being-late/?ref=s3t.org), we live in an accelerating age: exponential data growth, fast food, speed dating, rapid AI advancement, each wave of innovation rapidly replaced by the next.
**In an era when so much will be new, fleeting, and temporary it will be vital for us to intentionally stay timeless.** To stay rooted and connected to the timeless elements of our universe and our own existence. We need time to be ourselves. To step outside superficial roles like "consumers" and "human resources" (defined without our input by governments and corporations) and just be human.
This means we'll need to make time for those activities and spaces that are timeless and unchanging. Or at least not changing at the same pace.
The kitchen, the campfire, the hiking trail. The beach. The sunrise. Prayer time. The ballgame. Trips together. These timeless activities build our bonds with family, friends, and yes with our team members, business partners, and stakeholders. **This is how we retain our identity and our most vital connections. It also happens to be how we reach our maximum effectiveness and impact.**
A few have always believed these kinds of timeless activities were important, but nowadays they can seem impractical - even a waste of time. **Here's why it is actually more important than ever:**
- It matters to the well-being of the individuals. We need each other. Our family members need us. What we need from each other isn't found or delivered via markets or work or software. It happens *outside* of those accelerating realms.
- It also matters to the well-being and performance of organizations and their goals: teams that haven't bonded can't trust each other. They can't think or work like a team. They will fracture and fail. Disunity, siloed thinking, unilateral actions make a team literally *less intelligent.*
On both fronts - personal and work - if we don't set aside and preserve time for those timeless places and activities, then very important things will start to "fall through the cracks.
### At stake: bigger things falling through bigger cracks
It's not just that things *might* fall through the cracks. It's a progressive problem: Bigger and more crucial things fall through wider and wider cracks. And it's a pernicious problem - alarms do not go off when important things fall through the cracks. The disaster becomes apparent later usually when we've passed a point of no return, and the damage is irreversible.
Dalle3 image: Things Falling Thru the Cracks
In our personal lives, we can lose our connection to ourselves, our values, and our loved ones. We can lose our sense of self. Who we are and why we are here.
Likewise in our work, we also risk losing two very important things in this age of acceleration - two things many teams are already running low on:
- Ability to think together with an ownership mindset
- Ability to work together with precision execution
A team's ability to think together with an ownership mindset and work together with precision execution **isn't forged during work. It is *tested* during work, but it's forged elsewhere.**
It's forged during times when the focus is on those more timeless elements: food, family, stories, passions, and dreams. When people share these things, they become more unified.
The same holds true for families, friendships, and communities.
This is why S3T Newsletters often mention nature, food, and socializing. There is something timeless about kitchens, campfires, trails, beaches and other gathering places, that we cannot afford to lose as the world accelerates toward a code and data-driven blur. **These are not wastes of time. They are the secret to *not wasting time on ineffective effort*.**
## Putting this into practice: Thriving in the 21st Century
*How some organizations, families and individuals are finding new ways of living and working and better ways of keeping up.*
### Speeding up by slowing down
A team that doesn't know each other and doesn't trust each other will have to work at least twice as hard for twice as long to achieve the same thing as a team that trusts each other. This is a rule of thumb and a reality that so many of us have suffered through.
Why? Where there is low trust and low connection there always will be additional meetings to "gain alignment." Decisions will be delayed - or worse: made and then unmade because no one is on the same page. Work will get started, then stopped, then redone, as wave after wave of mixed messages wash over the organization.
What could have been solved (or even prevented) over a few beers, or a few weekend hikes, instead takes months and millions.
### Nature as a root of identity, not just a place to visit
Build a habit of spending time in nature focusing on what you can find, see and experience there. I need to make an important distinction: Yes, you can take your laptop outdoors and work on your deck, at the beach, or on a park bench along a trail. Fine, but it's no substitute for what I refer to here: the practice of leaving work tasks and thoughts behind and focusing solely on what you can learn and experience in nature. This puts you back in your original timeless element. Nature is not a place to visit, as Gary Snyder observed, Nature is *home*.
Nature reminds you of your true self and size. Size as in - your life is bigger than whatever is going on at work. Bigger than whatever people think of you. Yes, nature can remind us of how small we are. But it also reminds us that some things are even smaller.
In nature, these truths are more obvious, and more easily understood. Look at the photo below...the sky, the water. And then away on the horizon, you can see a city, a small and cramped bunch of little rectangles:
**Nothing that goes on in any of those little rectangles can ever diminish your true self, your worth, or your potential.** And nothing in those rectangles should ever be allowed to impact your inner peace. The sky and the water will be here in some shape or form long after those rectangles have emptied and come down.
### Small talk isn't small
Spend time conversing about things other than work. This is harder for some of us than others. If you feel introverted, or challenged at small talk, it's ok. Many of us feel the same way. Here are some ways to think about this differently.
What we call small talk isn't small. Some examples:
- When you ask "How are you?" you're asking a core question about a person's self and recent life experience. "How is it going?"
- "How is your family?" Likewise not a small or unimportant topic.
- "What are you working on these days?" is another great question that most people would love to tell you.
There are plenty of other questions that can start open-ended conversations where bonding and connecting the dots can occur: "What's the next trip you'd like to take?" "Do you have a favorite coffee shop (or sushi place, BBQ joint etc).
Don't think of these topics as small. You're hearing about people's dreams and passions. These aren't small things. They are part of the timeless aspect of humanity. When you take time to get to know people in this way, you are building trust *and laying the foundation for good outcomes in the future.*
### Preserving time for what's most important
Make a habit of scheduling time and space with no agenda except connection: Connecting with each other and connecting the dots.
While it's great to do these face-to-face, or side by side on a walk, or around a campfire, you can also create opportunities for open-ended conversations and time together via online channels:
- Some teams swear by Marco Polo, a video app that makes it easy to set up ongoing video group conversations.
- 1:1 Zoom Meetings - set up time for low-key, open-ended conversations.
- Virtual Happy Hours - Invite a group of individuals to get their favorite beverage (could be coffee or tea as well) and come together and chat. I've seen this particularly effective in building bridges and reducing silos among geographically distributed teams.
- Accountability Groups - Regularly scheduled time for a group of 2-4 that checks in with each other on some specific personal goals or improvements.
- Mastermind Weekly's - meet once a week to talk about the plans that you are the "mastermind" behind. This is a slightly different twist on the Accountability Group concept - focused on the success of extended initiatives or projects. This can be groups from different companies meeting each week to share ideas and build rapport.
The working principle behind all of these: **Open trusting communication makes for better performance.** When people aren't afraid to share information, ask for help, and doublecheck their understanding with each other - especially of crucial details - families and teams alike are healthier and function better. Teams are able to **execute with precision performance that mystifies those who haven't learned this yet.**
### **Parting thought: A Timeless way of working**
No system, company, or industry is as complex, resilient, durable, or has experienced more successful extended growth over a longer timeframe than Nature. If Nature were an industry or a company on the stock market, its performance would put every other player to shame.
The evidence suggests that if we want to likewise be successful and thrive, we should learn from Nature's timeless way of working.
So how does Nature work?
Nature relies on connections that nurture. Nature relies on synergies, and slow steady growth and adaptation. In nature, speed is almost always destructive.
If we learn to apply these patterns in our lives, our emotional and economic success could go to the next level. Whatever we have accomplished so far, is only a glimpse of our true potential.
*"Nature does not hurry. Yet everything is accomplished.*" - Lao Tzu
Photo by [Joel Vodell](https://unsplash.com/@joelvodell?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### 🌐 S3T Nov 17, 2023 - US Debt, Swash, Cars & Snacks, AI funding drops, Crypto is hiring, CBOE, Overcoming near-term bias
URL: https://www.s3t.org/nov-17-2023/
Last updated: 2023-11-19T17:26:22.000Z
---
### 🙏Thank you for reading and Happy Friday! Hope you are ready for a nice Thanksgiving week! In this edition:
- **Macroeconomics:** What's growing and what's shrinking in the economy. AI funding is down, Cars, soft drinks & snacks are losing their grip on Americans.
- **Emerging Tech:** Advertising comes to Web3\. Crypto is hiring (even as Big Tech is still doing layoffs)
- **Change Leadership Special Feature:** Why we need to overcomethe bias toward near-term thinking, and set up effective forward thinking in our teams.
- **For Paid Memberships:** 8 powerful tactics for establishing effective forward thinking in your organization.
🔊 [Listen to this edition on the S3T Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org)
### More resources & insights on the S3T portal:
🛠 [40 Best Online Tools & Resources](https://www.s3t.org/tools/) *Top trusted online tools that save you time and $$$, as well as best online sources for emerging tech & research, economic insights, shifts, trends, history, culture and nature.*
🌍 [Global Economic Dashboard](https://www.s3t.org/dashboard/) *500+ US & Intl real-time economic indicators organized by nation and release dates. Tap or click any indicator for detailed charts.*
🪙 [Crypto Market Caps](https://www.s3t.org/cmc/) *Top 100 Crypto Market Prices and Indicators. Colors indicate 24hr price movement, size of boxes indicate Market Cap.*
---
Photo by [Nico Smit](https://unsplash.com/@nicosmit99?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## 📊 Macroeconomics
### 📈 What's growing
This week Congress [passed a stopgap spending bill, resolving the 3rd fiscal standoff this year](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senate-takes-up-bill-avert-partial-government-shutdown-2023-11-15/?ref=s3t.org) where the US government barely avoided default on its rapidly ballooning $31 Trillion debt. To understand US national spending see [USASpending.gov](https://www.usaspending.gov/?ref=s3t.org) and the US Treasury's in-depth [Guide to the National Debt](https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/national-debt/?ref=s3t.org) with excellent charts and explainers.
### 📉 What's shrinking
Unlike the national debt, a few things are shrinking:
- [Global Venture funding fell in Q3](https://news.crunchbase.com/venture/global-venture-funding-instacart-klaviyo-q3-2023/?ref=s3t.org), down 15% YoY
- AI funding [dropped to its lowest quarterly level since 2017](https://www.cbinsights.com/research/report/ai-trends-q3-2023/?ref=s3t.org).
- [America's car and snack habits are shrinking](https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/american-consumers-declining-appetite-for-cars-and-snacks-will-reshape-economy-by-todd-g-buchholz-2023-11?ref=s3t.org). The change will have a significant economic impact.
Possible good news: [Some inflation relief might be on the way](https://www.haver.com/articles/charts-of-the-week-inflation-relief?ref=s3t.org) (Haver Analytics). But will the relief be superficial? See S3T [Inflation Perspectives](https://www.s3t.org/inflation-perspectives/) \- this inflation is different because of what is driving it.
💡
"Since the United States has never defaulted on its obligations, the scope of the negative repercussions related to a default are unknown but would likely have catastrophic repercussions in the United States and in markets across the globe." -[Treasury.gov](https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/national-debt/?ref=s3t.org)
---
Photo by [Daiga Ellaby](https://unsplash.com/@daiga%5Fellaby?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## 🥽 Emerging Tech: Crypto Spring?
###
🛒 Advertising comes to Web3
[Swash Ads](https://swashapp.io/solutions/advertise?ref=s3t.org) is rolling out a cookieless GDPR-compliant advertising platform promising better targeting and analytics. The solution is currently serving 13.9M impressions per month.
### 🌼Crypto Spring?
Now that the FTX trial is over, [righteous crypto is ready to get back to work, building a better future](https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/future-of-crypto-by-ari-juels-and-eswar-prasad-2023-11?ref=s3t.org) based on platforms less susceptible to the kind of centralized intermediary mischief of FTX and the like. There are signs of spring:
- [Polygon Labs is launching an $85M grant program](https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/11/09/polygon-labs-commences-85m-grant-program-to-draw-builders-to-its-ecosystem/?ref=s3t.org) to attract tech talent to build on its ecosystem. Context: Polygon is one of the leading Ethereum-compatible Layer 2 blockchains competing to attract talent to secure a dominant position. In the 2020-2021 timeframe crypto/web3 hired a significant amount of tech talent, but then shed much of it during the crypto winter of the past 18 months. As noted in previous editions of S3T, Big Tech laid off 240K tech workers in 2023\. A possible "crypto spring" may be opening doors of opportunity for this displaced talent.
- [Investors are eyeing Cosmos's potential to lead the next bull market](https://www.coinage.media/s2/cosmos-led-in-the-last-bull-market-could-it-lead-again?ref=s3t.org). Cosmos is one of a number of assets that have seen heavy losses over the past year, but received a boost in Q4 due to recent crypto optimism.
- The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) announced it [will launch margined Bitcoin and Ether Futures on Jan 11 2024](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/cboe-digital-to-launch-margined-bitcoin-and-ether-futures-on-january-11-2024-backed-by-crypto-and-traditional-finance-players-301986086.html?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=Cboe%20Digital%20will%20initially%20offer,date%2C%20subject%20to%20regulatory%20approvals.), making it the first U.S. regulated crypto native exchange and clearinghouse to enable both spot and leveraged derivatives trading on a single platform,
### Assuming this actually is the start of a new bull market...
David Hoffman of Bankless shares [what makes this bull market different](https://www.bankless.com/a-different-type-of-bull-market?ref=s3t.org) from the 3 crypto bull markets we've had already (2013, 2017, 2021): the driver is external (interest from traditional finance in crypto spot markets) rather than internal.
---
Photo by [Saad Ahmad](https://unsplash.com/@saadahmad%5Fumn?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## 🧭 Change Leadership Notes: How to overcome the bias toward short-term thinking and build a culture of effective forward-thinking
[](https://www.coinage.media/s2/cosmos-led-in-the-last-bull-market-could-it-lead-again?ref=s3t.org)
*"We are all engineering our own futures and the future of others, whether we realize it or not”*
Have you ever heard or thought statements like, "3 to 5 years! That’s too far off, who knows what’s gonna happen??? We can’t plan that far ahead!"
### **Here are three of the most costly misperceptions we have about future planning.**
###
### 🚫 Misperception #1\. That we have no power over the future.
The reality is our actions and decisions are shaping the future every day. The future profitability of our company, the future health of our customers, the net promoter scores of our future products - all of these are being decided by today's actions and decisions.
### 🚫 **Misperception #2\. That we have no knowledge of the future.**
3 to 5 years from now there are some things you can be quite certain about:
- The new platforms and system migrations that you are implementing now will still be running five years from now and your customers will be using them for better or for worse.
- The same can be said about those systems that you keep intending to retire, and you have not. They will most likely also still be running 3 to 5 years from now (and yes, they'll be impacting your financial health and customers). This is the safest bet until you begin creating a culture that systematically questions, culls, and retires things in pursuit of focus.
- 3 to 5 years from now you will not be able to pivot any more than you are able to pivot today unless you intentionally invest in transforming your organization into a pivot-capable organization. Perfect example: execs are abuzz about what they're doing to do with GenAI. The reality for [86% of them: They're not ready do anything with GenAI](https://www.cisco.com/c/m/en%5Fus/solutions/ai/readiness-index.html?ref=s3t.org). This was determined two or more years ago when they decided not to invest in building an ability to pivot into unforeseen opportunities like GenAI. The only decision open to them now is, do they want to be a pivot-capable company two years from now.
### 🚫 **Misperception #3\. Thinking about the future is less valuable than thinking about the near term.**
Sometimes we inadvertently shut down people and improvement opportunities because we deem certain things irrelevant - *because in the moment they don't seem as important as today's urgencies*. Acting as if near-term urgencies are the only things that matter is a form of proximity bias, and it doesn’t serve as well.
Corporate cultures can sometimes penalize or discredit people for thinking ahead.
"So and so is always like five years in the future."
Ok sure, maybe they need coaching. But maybe the real issue is that **you're running five years behind** in the way you operate, design products and treat your customers! Maybe you need to reframe: Maybe this person isn't out of touch. They're actually more in touch. They’re not thinking five years in the future; they’re just realizing what it’s supposed to be *today* and the fact that we’re missing our target.
### 3 Crucial recognitions about future planning
There are three crucial recognitions that will help you and your team better understand why we need to think about the future and plan more effectively:
- Thinking ahead is not dreaming. It is not using your imagination, or crystal-balling some fake future that will probably never happen.
- Thinking ahead is taking more seriously the responsibility to understand the unfolding implications of today’s decisions and actions. You have a responsibility to understand how our decisions and actions this month, this quarter, and this year, will impact our customers for years to come.
- The way we do our jobs today directly extends or limits the benefits that our customers are able to experience tomorrow and far into the future.
### 8 powerful tactics for enabling a culture of effective forward thinking
The realities of the 21st-century demand that leaders work to build a corporate culture of effective forward thinking: one that is comfortable with future-oriented proactive thinking and recognizes the long-term impact of today's decisions and actions. Here are 8 strategies for fostering effective thinking and planning for the future:
###
**Regular Future-Focused Work Sessions:** Schedule regular meetings dedicated solely to discussing long-term goals, trends, and forecasts. Encourage open dialogue about how your industry or competitor landscape could evolve, how emerging technologies might reshape your business, or how economics might impact customer behaviors.
**Scenario Planning Workshops:** Engage teams in specific scenario planning exercises. These workshops should explore different future scenarios, including best-case, worst-case, and most-likely outcomes. This practice helps teams understand the implications of their decisions and prepares them for a range of possibilities.
**Set and Use *Long-Term* Metrics:** Make sure your key performance metrics include long-term goals and outcomes not just short-term ones. By evaluating success not just on immediate results but also on progress toward future objectives, you signal the importance of the long term, and encourage employees learn to think beyond the short-term.
**Encourage Continuous Lifelong Learning:** Promote a culture where continuous learning is valued. Provide resources and opportunities for employees to learn about emerging trends, technologies, and methodologies. This keeps the team informed about potential future developments and how they might impact or be leveraged by the company.
**Innovative Mindset Workshops:** Conduct workshops or training sessions that focus on developing an innovative mindset. This includes embracing change, thinking creatively, and understanding the importance of adaptation and evolution in business.
**Reward Innovative Thinking:** Recognize and reward employees who bring forward ideas or projects that may have long-term benefits, even if the immediate impact is not as evident. This can encourage a forward-thinking approach and risk-taking for future gains.
**Two-Way Communication Platforms:** Establish platforms or events where employees at all levels can share their insights and ideas about the future. This could be through regular town hall meetings, suggestion boxes, or digital forums.
**Leadership Accessibility and Role Modeling:** Leaders should be accessible and actively participate in discussions about the future. By demonstrating their own commitment to long-term thinking and being open to feedback and ideas from all levels of the organization, leaders can set a powerful example.
By implementing these strategies, leaders can cultivate a corporate culture that not only acknowledges the importance of the future but helps employees at all levels realize their ability to actively engage in shaping the future. This approach can lead to a more resilient, forward-thinking, and ultimately successful organization.
### S3T - Nov 10, 2023 Mobility Rights, SP493, Climate Resilience, GPT App Store, Beatles, Tough Questions
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-nov-10-2023/
Last updated: 2023-11-10T07:52:45.000Z
##
🔊 *[Listen to this edition on the S3T Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org)*
**Happy Diwali! In this edition of S3T:**
- **Action Opportunity** to advocate for mobility rights. Let United Airlines know your views.
- **Macro:** Politics is impacting the US's financial future. The S&P 493\. Bitcoin gains favor vs US Treasuries. Real Estate's new buzz phrase.
- **Emerging Tech:** GPT Apps. OpenAI to launch an App Store. The Beatles release an AI-enabled song.
- **Change Leadership:** The Tough Questions that can help you lock on to your true purpose and path to impact.
---
Photo by [Romain Virtuel](https://unsplash.com/@romainvirtuel?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## ✈️ S3T Action Opportunity
Some members of our S3T community are focused on improving the airline's treatment of people who depend on wheelchairs, in two ways:
- Currently, airlines deny passengers the option to remain in their own wheelchairs when they fly. As a result people who rely on wheelchairs routinely suffer injury and damage to their wheelchairs, as shared in the [Flying Wheelchairs interview with Dan Dorszynski](https://www.s3t.org/flying-wheelchairs/).
- Airlines also do not provide access to accessible bathrooms on planes. This forces passengers to have to [dehydrate themselves](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/roberto-castiglioni-mbe-a6539a%5Fassistedairtravelact-rightsonflights-activity-7115250839320948736-vbl2?utm%5Fsource=share&utm%5Fmedium=member%5Fdesktop) in order to not have to use the restroom on long flights.
### Opportunity for action and advocacy:
United Airlines is set to add 700 new planes to its fleet in the next 9 years 2023-2032.
You can contact United Airlines to ask them to ensure that these new planes include:
1. Cabin configurations that allow passengers to fly in their own wheelchairs
2. Cabin configurations and support to allow passengers in wheelchairs to use accessible bathrooms during flights.
You can reach United a couple of different ways:
- On X/Twitter: [United Airlines](https://twitter.com/united?ref=s3t.org)[@united](https://twitter.com/united?ref=s3t.org) \- use this option if you have not flown with United recently (the online form below asks you to enter flight details - they assume you're complaining about something that happened on a flight).
- On the web: [https://www.united.com/feedback](https://www.united.com/feedback?ref=s3t.org) \- use this option if you have flown recently (they will ask for a flight number or last name and airports you flew to/from)
Supporting materials:
- After landing, this man had to [crawl off an airplane because the staff forgot to bring his wheelchair](https://www.cnn.com/2015/10/25/us/united-airlines-disabled-man/index.html?ref=s3t.org) and he was unable to use the onboard restroom.
- United to add 700 new planes. Stated in the [October edition of United's Hemisphere's magazine](https://www.hemispheresmag.com/information/united/united-becomes-first-us-airline-to-add-braille-across-its-fleet/?ref=s3t.org). “As part of United's historic growth plan, we expect to take delivery of about 700 new narrowbody and wide-body aircraft by the end of 2032, all of which will lead us toward a redesign for accessibility. It's all part of our plan to make travel a better experience for everyone.”
- United's [accessibility page](https://www.united.com/ual/en/us/fly/travel/special-needs/disabilities/ua-accessibility.html?ref=s3t.org)
---
Photo by [Element5 Digital](https://unsplash.com/@element5digital?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## 💵️ Macroeconomy
Tuesday's [off-cycle election in the US delivered a few surprises](https://apnews.com/article/election-2023-highlights-868a21bf3537a0533ae3fd8007d07eef?ref=s3t.org) but coupled with the week's economic news - underscores 3 realities:
- The nation continues to be deeply divided
- The abortion issue is far from settled.
- Politics is impacting our financial future.
Persistent inflation and deficit worries, compounded by political dysfunction impacted this week's bond market auction - [investors lack confidence in US 30-year Treasuries](https://www.barrons.com/articles/treasury-auction-bond-yields-stock-market-db08c04b?ref=s3t.org). Stocks fell after Fed Chair Jerome Powell [signaled that more rate hikes are on the way](https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-dives-as-fed-chair-jerome-powell-gives-this-inflation-warning-tesla-stock-gets-hammered-apple-stock-microsoft-stock/?ref=s3t.org). As this AP wrap up details, it was a [rough week overall](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/futures-listless-markets-await-more-policy-cues-2023-11-09/?ref=s3t.org).
Bitcoin moved above 35k this week, another new high for the year. Traditional investment firms now [anticipate increasing adoption of crypto](https://www.dlnews.com/articles/snapshot/blackrock-larry-fink-shift-on-bitcoin-due-to-wealth-transfer/?ref=s3t.org) driven by the large wealth transfer from older generation investors to millennials and Gen Zs who own significantly higher levels of crypto.
**Further Reading**
- This piece suggests an idea from Dublin: [leveraging small diverse discussion groups to renew our democracy](https://www.fastcompany.com/90958013/to-redesign-democracy-the-u-s-should-borrow-an-idea-from-dublin?ref=s3t.org). The approach takes problem-solving out of the noisy ineffective political channels and places it into the hands of small diverse discussion groups.
- Track the traders who are betting on the next rate hike [here at the CME Fedwatch tool](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html&ref=s3t.org).
### 📉 The S&P 493
Multiple variations of a chart are circulating this week, contrasting the \~50% growth of the top 7 companies in the SP500 vs the virtually flat performance of the remaining 493\. One of the better examples below:
> Mega cap tech returns year to date
>
> also, S&P493 is almost flat year to date [pic.twitter.com/ndiA9Rv08u](https://t.co/ndiA9Rv08u?ref=s3t.org)
>
> — Kourosh (@kouroshshafi) [May 28, 2023](https://twitter.com/kouroshshafi/status/1662899334185381888?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org)
The S&P500 growth this year was powered by the so-called Magnificent 7 stocks (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft, Telsa).
[RBA notes here](https://www.rbadvisors.com/insights/a-once-in-a-generation-opportunity/?ref=s3t.org) that investors are "overwhelmingly concentrated in the Magnificent 7 stocks." RBA sees a ["generational opportunity" to capitalize on this imbalance](https://www.rbadvisors.com/insights/a-once-in-a-generation-opportunity/?ref=s3t.org) because a closer examination of earnings growth shows that these 7 aren't so magnificent. In fact, they are struggling: several of the 7 contributed the bulk of this year's 240K (and counting) layoffs in the tech sector ([full list of 2023 tech layoffs as of Nov 9 here](https://techcrunch.com/2023/11/9/tech-layoffs-2023-list/?cx%5FtestId=6&cx%5FtestVariant=cx%5Fundefined&cx%5FartPos=2&ref=s3t.org#cxrecs%5Fs)).
### 🏡 Real Estate Economics
- The [$1.8B verdict against the National Association of Realtors](https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/05/homes/nar-verdict-real-estate-commission-fee/index.html?ref=s3t.org) won't drive any immediate changes but opens the door to eventual reductions in commissions paid to realtors.
- [ATTOM Home Affordability Report](https://www.attomdata.com/news/market-trends/home-sales-prices/attom-q3-2023-u-s-home-affordability-report/?ref=s3t.org) shows US housing affordability at a new historic low, with affordability decreasing in 99% of counties analyzed.
### 🌏️ "Climate Resilient"
One of the themes noted in S3T is the expected impact of climate change on real estate trends, as large areas become less livable. Below is a real estate ad seen this week, tagged with the line *"A home that will stand the test of time in a climate resilient area of the world!"*
For more insights on the evolving urban space and real estate sector, see [S3T Panorama - Future of Real Estate](https://www.s3t.org/s3t-panorama-future-of-real-estate/) (paid memberships).
---
## Emerging Tech
### 🛠 GPT Builder and GPT App Store
This week OpenAI rolled out [GPT Builder a new capability that promises to let you create your own GPT](https://help.openai.com/en/articles/8554397-creating-a-gpt?ref=s3t.org) in just a few easy steps. OpenAI also [announced](https://openai.com/blog/introducing-gpts?ref=s3t.org) they will be rolling out a GPT App Store later this month. The store will [feature creations by verified builders, with product categories and leaderboards](https://techcrunch.com/2023/11/06/app-store-for-ai-build-your-own-gpt-and-sell-it-on-openais-gpt-store/?ref=s3t.org).
> ChatGPT was just the beginning.
>
> It's only been 14 hours since OpenAI released their new product GPTs
>
> And people are already generating insane results.
>
> Here are 10 of my favorite examples...
>
> — Angry Tom (@AngryTomtweets) [November 7, 2023](https://twitter.com/AngryTomtweets/status/1721813181826216376?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org)
### 🎸AI-enabled Beatles song released this week
Billed as the "Final Beatles Song" the new release titled *Now and Then* brings together [unpublished vocals and music from original sessions with the Fab Four](https://www.theguardian.com/music/2023/nov/02/now-and-then-listen-to-the-final-beatles-song-john-lennon-paul-mccartney-ringo-george-harrison?ref=s3t.org). New AI methods enabled specific elements of original recordings to be recovered/optimized.
- [Listen to the song here](https://youtu.be/AW55J2zE3N4?ref=s3t.org) (I'm sentimental and I absolutely loved it.)
- Notable: [UB students weigh in](https://www.ubspectrum.com/article/2023/11/the-fifth-beatle-ai?ref=s3t.org).
---
## 🧭 Change Leadership Notes: Why are you here?
As the year winds down, the final quarter presents a golden opportunity for introspection: *Am I driven by motivations I've consciously chosen, or have I unknowingly veered off course?*
This week, we've got a special feature that's all about helping you stay true to what drives you. We'll dive into the big question: *"Why are you in the place you're in? What are you here to accomplish?"* Let's find out your 'Why' together, and make sure it shines in everything you do. Now is a great time for a few moments of self-discovery and smart planning: [Click here and let's get started!](https://www.s3t.org/clarifying-your-purpose/)
[Clarifying your purpose - why are you here?S3T - the newsletter and learning platform for people who are leading change. Join us!S3T NewsletterRalph Perrine](https://www.s3t.org/clarifying-your-purpose/)
###
---
Hi, I’m Ralph Perrine, founder of S3T Newsletter. Thanks for reading this week’s edition!
I created S3T to empower change leaders with the knowledge and insights they need to navigate the ever-evolving landscapes of economics and emerging tech. Together, let's embrace challenges, seize opportunities, and shape a brighter future through effective leadership and strategic innovation.
If you have any questions or suggestions, I’d love to hear your thoughts! Direct message me @ralphperrine on LinkedIn or Twitter anytime.
Cheers,
Ralph Perrine
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial advice. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed.*
### 🔮️ S3T Nov 3, 2023 - SBF, Rates outlook, consumer stress, blockchain consolidation, accessible trails, Q4 resources.
URL: https://www.s3t.org/nov-3-2023/
Last updated: 2023-11-03T05:28:32.000Z
🔊 *[Listen to this edition on the S3T Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org)*
**In this edition of S3T: What change leaders are talking and learning about this week:**
- **Macroeconomy:** SBF verdict, interest rates and consumer financials make for a volatile mix. Global indicators on dollar strength and emerging market resilience. Claudia Goldin wins the Economics Nobel Prize.
- **Emerging Tech:** Why the Ethereum Killers are losing: Blockchains are in a consolidation phase, but blockchain's layered architecture will allow blockchains more coexistence than your typical zero-sum game industry consolidation.
- **Nature Notes:** Getting outdoors to see if it's a special day or not. Plus: guides to wheelchair-accessible trails and outdoor destinations.
- **For Paid Memberships: Taking care of you in Q4 and Resources to smooth your path amid all the year-end business.**
---
### 👨⚖️️ Breaking Thursday Evening
Sam Bankman-Fried was [found guilty on all seven counts](https://techcrunch.com/2023/11/02/sam-bankman-fried-found-guilty-on-all-seven-counts/?ref=s3t.org), as [forecasted by traders on Polymarket](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2023/11/02/market-sees-59-odds-sam-bankman-fried-is-found-guilty-on-all-charges-but-theres-a-catch/?ref=s3t.org) (For continuing developments see [WIREDs min by min coverage](https://www.wired.com/live/sam-bankman-fried-sbf-ftx-trial-live-blog-verdict/?ref=s3t.org)). **It was one year ago today** that Coindesk published Alameda financials, kicking off the FTX implosion, wiping out billions in investor assets. Lost amid most of the headlines is the key point that FTX's scandal was able to happen precisely because it was operating like a traditional centralized financial entity rather than a truly decentralized entity.
> 🚨 BREAKING: Sam Bankman-Fried guilty on all 7 counts in FTX fraud trial, [@Reuters](https://twitter.com/Reuters?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org) reports.
>
> The verdict falls one year from the day CoinDesk released the Alameda Research balance sheet, which ultimately took down FTX.[https://t.co/19IQHXPsB0](https://t.co/19IQHXPsB0?ref=s3t.org)
>
> — CoinDesk (@CoinDesk) [November 2, 2023](https://twitter.com/CoinDesk/status/1720227355187138813?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org)
---
## 💵️ Macro that Matters
### US Interest Rates & Consumer Financials
[Markets rose after the Fed left rates as is this week](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/futures-climb-bets-end-feds-rate-hikes-2023-11-02/?ref=s3t.org), and new data from the Burea of Economic Analysis shows **consumers are getting pulled in two directions**: a several-month trend of consumer incomes falling even as their spending has been increasing (compare the negative percent changes vs. the positive ones [in the chart on p1 in this PDF](https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2023-10/pi0923.pdf?ref=s3t.org)). This can't continue, so be on the lookout for volatility in consumer spending patterns through the end of the year.
### Global Outlook
- Intriguing data from Havre Analytics suggests the global tightening cycle may be near its end: [recent forecasts of central bank policy expect rate cuts of as much as 1% by this time next year](https://www.haver.com/economy-in-brief?ref=s3t.org).
- Bellwether on US Dollar Reserve status? [Argentina using Chinese Yuan for IMF Payments](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/dedollarization-argentina-china-yuan-currency-swap-imf-debt-dollar-scarcity-2023-11?utm%5Fmedium=social&utm%5Fsource=twitter&utm%5Fcampaign=markets-sf) citing scarcity of US Dollars.
- Emerging Markets (other than Argentina) [have demonstrated exceptional resilience lately](https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/macroeconomic-orthodoxy-saved-emerging-markets-from-debt-crisis-by-kenneth-rogoff-2023-10?ref=s3t.org).
For the full set of 500+ global economic indicators, see the [Global Economic Dashboard](https://www.s3t.org/dashboard/).
### 🎉️ Worth Celebrating
[Claudia Goldin has won the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences for 2023](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2023/press-release/?ref=s3t.org) for her work advancing the historical and present understanding of the impact of women's earnings and labor market participation on the economy.
---
Photo by [Kimon Maritz](https://unsplash.com/@kimonmaritz?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## 🔍️ Emerging Tech Closer Examination: Layer 1s and 2s are shaping Blockchain Consolidation
In spite of the recent spikes in the crypto market, most digital currencies are still way down from their hype-driven highs in the past 2 years and **there are signs that the inevitable market consolidation is underway**.
Blockchains that previously positioned themselves as alternatives to Ethereum are now considering whether to merge into the Ethereum ecosystem.
In July 2023 the leaders of the Celo project issued [this proposal](https://forum.celo.org/t/clabs-proposal-for-celo-to-transition-to-an-ethereum-l2/6109?ref=s3t.org) to convert themselves from an Ethereum alternative to being an Ethereum Layer 2\. This is one of a number of examples.
Two rough analogies to illustrate the significance of this conversion:
- This is analogous to one nation proposing that it become a province or state within another nation in order to take advantage of the infrastructure of that nation.
- It is also roughly analogous to a regional cloud provider deciding to take its customers onto a national cloud provider (like GCP, AWS or Azure). The regional provider can continue to run its own tools and solutions on top of the national provider, but take advantage of the base layer of infrastructure and services of the national provider.
Blockchains have evolved a layered structure referred to as Layer 1 (base layer of foundational capabilities) and Layer 2 (extended capabilities tailored to specific use cases).
### Fates of the Ethereum Killers
Before the 2022 Ethereum upgrades, a range of "[Ethereum killers](https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2022/02/10/the-top-ethereum-killers-compared/?ref=s3t.org)" positioned themselves as faster, cheaper, and more eco-friendly than Ethereum. Most of which was fair - until the Ethereum team executed a near-flawless series of upgrades.
Today the situation has evolved: Many projects are languishing amid lack of talent and lack of funds, and face extinction. There likely will be fewer Layer 1s than Layer 2s. But there is [quite a bit of room in the industry for Layer 2 blockchains](https://beincrypto.com/learn/layer-2-crypto-projects/?ref=s3t.org) which can specialize in specific use cases while inheriting and using the core functionality of the Ethereum Layer 1 chain.
### How the conversion works
Two entities are offering competing kits that help blockchain projects convert themselves to Ethereum Layer 2 chains.
- Polygon Labs is offering a [Chain Development Kit (CDK) that allows projects like Celo to transition](https://www.theblock.co/post/252306/polygon-celo-proposal?ref=s3t.org) from their current chain technology and convert to an Ethereum compatible Layer 2 chain, that inherits Ethereum's Layer 1 foundational capabilities and security.
- Optimism Labs offers a [similar chain development kit it calls Op Stack](https://zerocap.com/insights/research-lab/understanding-the-op-stack/?ref=s3t.org).
Both are being considered by multiple chain projects, and both enable a project to inherit and use Ethereum's Layer 1 capabilities while offering specialized functions in their own Layer 2\.
### Rollups: a bake-off
Polygon and Optimism's offerings differ in one key aspect: "rollups". Rollups refer to the method used to allow transactions to happen on Layer 2, but then be "rolled up" and preserved via the integrity and security provisions of Layer 1 ([Helpful explainer here](https://www.quicknode.com/guides/web3-fundamentals-security/cryptography/introduction-to-ethereum-rollups?ref=s3t.org)). There is a bake-off underway and its not yet clear (to me anyway) who will win: Polygon utilizes Zero-Knowledge proofs while Op Stack uses Optimistic Rollups. For a deeper dive see [this comparison of Zero-Knowledge vs Optimistic and their tradeoffs](https://blog.thirdweb.com/optimistic-rollups-vs-zero-knowledge-zk-rollups/?ref=s3t.org).
### Success factor: Offering space
It is interesting to me that Ethereum appears to be winning the fierce blockchain competition, not by speed, but **by an architecture that gives others space to succeed**. In today's complex highly competitive and duplicative tech world, this feels something like an emerging [enterprise architecture pattern](https://martinfowler.com/eaaCatalog/?ref=s3t.org) \- one worth contemplating and evaluating to see where else it could be applied.
By focusing on providing exceptionally strong Layer 1 capabilities, while leaving room for others to build on top of it with their own Layer 2 innovations, Ethereum appears to be gaining critical mass, and demonstrating the resilience to continue its evolution even in the worst of bear markets.
---
Photo by [Aaron Burden](https://unsplash.com/@aaronburden?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## 🌄️ Nature Notes
"I had decided for myself that holidays or special days meant nothing if they were dictated by the calendar. Any day might be a special one - you just had to get outside and see if it was." - Kenn Kaufman *Kingbird Highway*
### Ways for everyone to get outdoors
A small but growing set of places are providing wheelchair-friendly ways to enjoy the outdoors. Here are a few of the emerging guides:
- [10 Wheelchair-Friendly Trails in the top National Park](https://www.travelandleisure.com/wheelchair-accessible-national-park-trails-7500063?ref=s3t.org)s[ ](https://www.fws.gov/activity/accessible-trails?ref=s3t.org)
- [US Fish and Wildlife Service guide to Accessible Trails](https://www.fws.gov/activity/accessible-trails?ref=s3t.org)
- [Guide to Wheelchair Accessible Waterfalls](https://blueridgemountainlife.com/wheelchair-accessible-waterfalls/?ref=s3t.org) in the Blue Ridge Mountains
---
Photo by [Mathew Schwartz](https://unsplash.com/@cadop?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Taking care of you in Q4
It's November. Do you feel like you're stumbling toward the finish line? *"Taking a few moments to focus on what makes you feel calm, centred and ready to tackle what lies ahead is always a good use of time,"* notes Amy Beecham in [her thoughtful and timely read about taking care of yourself](https://getpocket.com/explore/item/6-key-signs-you-re-in-a-toxic-relationship-with-yourself-and-what-to-do-about-it?utm%5Fsource=pocket-newtab-en-us).
### Resources to Smooth Your Path for End of Year
- [Easy Guide to Finishing Strong](https://www.s3t.org/finish-strong/) \- get the most out of the remaining days of the year
- [S3T Guide for Smarter Annual Planning](https://www.s3t.org/better-annual-planning/)
- [Top Leaders are Asking this Question in Annual Reviews](https://www.s3t.org/the-question-top-managers-ask-during-performance-reviews/)
- [Signaling and Perspective-Taking during Annual Review Season](https://www.s3t.org/annual-reviews-talent-strategy-brief/) \- a talent strategy guide for leaders
---
### 📈️ S3T Oct 27 - Growth, Select7, Polycrisis, AI Safety, Personhood, Fusion and the #1 Question for Annual Reviews
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-oct-27-2023/
Last updated: 2023-11-02T23:20:05.000Z
🙏️ ****Forward this email to a friend who will be inspired or encouraged by one of this week's segments!** Change leaders look out for each other, and share insights that can help with current challenges or questions.
If you are receiving this email from a friend and want to sign up for the S3T Newsletter or paid membership, visit S3T.ORG and sign up today!
---
🔊 *[Listen to this edition on the S3T Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org)*
**In this edition of S3T: What leaders are talking about this week**
- **Macroeconomy:** Strong growth amid polycrisis worries and concerns about the potential of the Select 7 to drag the market down.
- **Emerging Tech:** AI Safety, new solutions for proof of personhood and why they are so important. Plus: Jobs of tomorrow and which ones will be automated vs augmented by AI - detailed report.
- **Nature Notes:** The top places to live all have a strong connection to nature. Explore the top options for the well being of you and your family.
- **For Paid Memberships: The #1 question to ask your team members during annual reviews.**
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial advice. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed.*
## 🌏️ Macroeconomy
### The Opposite of a Recession
The US economy [grew at its fastest rate in 2 years in Q3](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-third-quarter-economic-growth-seen-fastest-nearly-2-years-2023-10-26/?ref=s3t.org), thanks to increased [consumer spending](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-26/us-economy-expands-by-most-since-2021-on-household-spending?ref=s3t.org#xj4y7vzkg) *and* [defense spending](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-26/us-defense-spending-boosts-economy-with-fastest-rise-since-2019?ref=s3t.org#xj4y7vzkg), boosting hopes for a "soft landing".
### Select 7 impact during Oct-Nov Earnings Season
October 18-Nov 15 is earnings season, and [all eyes are on the reports from the "Select 7"](https://www.fastcompany.com/90967136/why-the-next-4-weeks-could-mark-a-major-turning-point-for-the-economy?ref=s3t.org) (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft, Telsa). [Initial results this week underscore the concern](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/nasdaq-futures-slide-megacaps-drag-economic-data-focus-2023-10-26/?ref=s3t.org) and markets tumbled Thursday. **As noted in previous editions of S3T, many worry the market's optimism is overdependent on these few tech stocks.**
### Economic backdrop: Polycrisis as the dark side of combinatorial effects
Combinatorial was an optimistic word used in 2021-2022 by [Gartner](https://www.gartner.com/smarterwithgartner/combine-cluster-complement-3-fundamentals-of-combinatorial-digital-innovation?ref=s3t.org), [E&Y](https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwig6ojp2I6CAxWxGlkFHfvtBG8QFnoECBoQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fassets.ey.com%2Fcontent%2Fdam%2Fey-sites%2Fey-com%2Fen%5Fgl%2Ftopics%2Fadvisory%2Fey-the-combinatorial-effect-of-emerging-technologies.pdf&usg=AOvVaw3KACf1yn-C4dj77Wxgvbp-&opi=89978449), [Ark Invest](https://ark-funds.com/articles/commentary/arkk-and-nasdaq-100-a-spurious-correlation/?ref=s3t.org) to describe the combined effects of different kinds of innovation. [Polycrisis is the negative version of this term](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23920997/polycrisis-climate-pandemic-population-connectivity?ref=s3t.org). The term underscores the unprecedented nature of the combined challenges we face, and the seeming inability of traditional leadership to get things under control.
**The pendulum may be swinging back:** war, inflation, and financial uncertainty is eroding people's faith in traditional finance and government. Bitcoin [surged to a new high for 2023 this week](https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-jones-10-24-2023/card/bitcoin-price-jumps-above-33-000-0VE88tkl1a29hFvPtTRY?ref=s3t.org). This [technical trading analysis notes the recent dominance of Bitcoin over altcoins](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2023/10/17/bitcoins-rising-dominance-rate-challenges-altcoin-boom-from-2021/?ref=s3t.org) \- a reversal of 2021 when altcoins were favored over Bitcoin. But altcoins like Render, Chainlink and Solana have also shown strong growth over the past 12 months as well.
---
Photo by [Google DeepMind](https://unsplash.com/@googledeepmind?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## ☢️Emerging Tech
### AI Safety
This essay argues that [Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is already here](https://www.noemamag.com/artificial-general-intelligence-is-already-here/?utm%5Fsource=substack&utm%5Fmedium=email) \- in the form of Large Language Models and that we'll look back on LLMs the way we look back at the Wright brother's first airplane. In other words, we may be further down the rabbit hole than we realize:
- AI luminaries Yoshua Bengio and Geoffrey Hinton [recommend companies allocate 1/3 of their AI budgets to managing risks](https://venturebeat.com/ai/ai-godfathers-bengio-and-hinton-major-tech-companies-should-devote-a-third-of-ai-budget-to-managing-ai-risk/?ref=s3t.org).
- The White House plans to publish an Executive Order [requiring AI Models to undergo assessments prior to use by federal workers](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/10/25/artificial-intelligence-executive-order-biden/?ref=s3t.org).
- [World Economic Forum Report: Jobs of Tomorrow](https://www.weforum.org/publications/jobs-of-tomorrow-large-language-models-and-jobs?ref=s3t.org) provides detailed analysis of whether AI will completely automate vs. augment individual jobs. Jobs that involve complexity, collaboration or important communication seem more likely to be augmented by AI, but not replaced by it.
> NEW AT BREAKPOINT: We’ve built the ultimate fraud-buster for transactions on Solana!
>
> Proof of Personhood from Civic lets you know whether a wallet is controlled by AI or a human -- with a high degree of certainty.
>
> Wallet owners complete a live video selfie to prove their… [pic.twitter.com/oMldXJjqx0](https://t.co/oMldXJjqx0?ref=s3t.org)
>
> — Civic (@civickey) [October 26, 2023](https://twitter.com/civickey/status/1717582968904925639?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org)
### Proof of personhood
Civic announced this week a new [Proof of Personhood solution](https://www.prweb.com/releases/civic-launches-proof-of-personhood-to-meet-the-coming-ai-boom-on-solana-301966912.html?ref=s3t.org), in anticipation of AI-based fake identities.
As previously noted in S3T, generative AI has created a new kind of problem: *uncertainty*. Term papers, photos, and videos all can be faked with alarming realism. We have moved into an era where it's hard to know what is real, authentic, owned, or not. This is spawning a new market for ***certainty*** solutions. Some other examples (in addition to Civic's offering):
- World Coin is offering an ecosystem of identity solutions designed for AI saturated era, including a [retina scanning device](https://worldcoin.org/blog/engineering/opening-orb-look-inside-worldcoin-biometric-imaging-device?ref=s3t.org) and a [World ID](https://worldcoin.org/world-id?ref=s3t.org) that supports [proof of personhood](https://worldcoin.org/blog/worldcoin/proof-of-personhood-what-it-is-why-its-needed?ref=s3t.org). Sam Altman CEO of OpenAI is one of the backers... an interesting example of being involved in both creating the problem and the solution.
- [Ethereum Attestation Service](https://attest.sh/?ref=s3t.org) is establishing a global base layer where anything and everything can be attested to. This gives individuals an immutable universal way to prove identity, ownership, credentials, eligibility, membership and more. The platform is also targeting voting use case.
**Certainty as a Service** (CaaS) has the potential to become a new kind of global basic need - just as Internet Search and email have become.
### Nuclear Fusion
[A nuclear fusion hub is developing in the Pacific Northwest](https://www.geekwire.com/2023/fusion-fever-a-reality-check-on-the-multibillion-dollar-race-to-reinvent-energy-and-save-the-planet/?ref=s3t.org) with a small cadre of companies competing to deliver the first viable working examples. The space is fraught with risk - with more possible approaches than innovators to explore them - and serious challenges to solve. In spite of the odds, the technology is progressing:
- Microsoft and US steel maker Nucor have pledged to [buy power from a nuclear fusion power plant that Helion plans to bring online by 2030](https://www.greenbiz.com/article/nucor-and-microsoft-are-counting-nuclear-fusion-reduce-their-emissions?ref=s3t.org).
- Silicon Valley is [placing early bets](https://www.axios.com/pro/climate-deals/2023/10/23/silicon-valley-nuclear-fusion?ref=s3t.org).
- [A Japanese project recently achieved "first plasma"](https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Energy/Japan-s-fusion-power-project-reaches-plasma-milestone?ref=s3t.org) an important milestone
---
Photo by [Johannes Plenio](https://unsplash.com/@jplenio?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Nature Notes
- 3 of the top 10 most livable cities in the world are in Canada, thanks primarily to their *close connection to and integration with nature*, [per this BBC survey of residents](https://www.bbc.com/travel/article/20231001-why-does-canada-have-three-of-the-worlds-most-liveable-cities?ref=s3t.org).
- [Spending time outdoors benefits the total well-being of children](https://aldoleopoldnaturecenter.org/about-us/why-nature-matters/?ref=s3t.org), from stress and mental health to academic achievement (Aldo Leopold Nature Center).
- [Top 25 Places for Outdoor Enthusiasts to Live](https://smartasset.com/data-studies/best-places-for-outdoor-enthusiasts-to-live-and-work-2022?ref=s3t.org) (published in 2022).
---
*Special Change Leadership feature for paying members*
Photo by [Christina @ wocintechchat.com](https://unsplash.com/@wocintechchat?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
##
## The #1 Question Managers Need to Ask During Performance Reviews
*As performance review season approaches, top-performing people leaders are looking for the best way to evaluate and engage their teams for success in 2024\.*
If you are wondering how to prompt a meaningful conversation in your 1:1s with team members, especially when reflecting on this past year and preparing for the next, here is a proven approach I have learned and refined over the course of my 30 years of experience building and leading high-performance teams.
This approach focuses on one crucial question that I highly recommend you leverage in your end-of-year conversations with your team members. Well-crafted questions can spark and guide crucial conversations that lead to better engagement. This is one of the best.
This question cuts to the heart of why the employee is here, and whether they are going to be happy and successful in this role. It will also help you learn the insights you need to drive higher engagement and performance.
Here's the question:
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### 🏆️ S3T Oct 20 Special Edition: Finishing Strong in 2023, Financial Innovation, Learning Path for Healthcare Leaders, Crypto Blue Chips
URL: https://www.s3t.org/oct-20-finishing-strong/
Last updated: 2023-10-20T05:28:26.000Z
##
🙏️ ****Forward this email to a friend who will be inspired or encouraged by one of this week's segments!** Change leaders look out for each other, and share insights that can help with current challenges or questions.
If you are receiving this email from a friend and want to sign up for the S3T Newsletter or paid membership, visit S3T.ORG and sign up today!
---
**Welcome to a special edition of S3T: Your guide to finishing strong as 2023 winds down. Plus: Emerging Financial models for better affordability in healthcare; The rise of Crypto Blue Chips. For paying members: A New Learning Path for Healthcare Leaders.**
*🔊 [Listen to this edition on the S3T Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org)*
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial advice. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed.*
---
## Macroeconomics
### Trend: Financial Innovation for Global Healthcare
Healthcare data is slowly becoming standardized enough to yield useful predictions and insights that can enable care that is more proactive and cost-effective. As this evolution unfolds, a set of new opportunities for financial innovation in healthcare will become possible. The following offer a glimpse of how financial innovation could bring some gamechanging new capabilities to healthcare finance.
- US Chamber of Commerce [paper on paths to achieving global universal healthcare coverage](https://www.uschamber.com/international/unlocking-barriers-to-scale-innovative-financing-for-universal-health-coverage?ref=s3t.org) (September 2023)
- Oxford explainer on [Impact Bonds and evidence to date on how well they work](https://golab.bsg.ox.ac.uk/the-basics/social-impact-bonds/?ref=s3t.org).
- NIH: [Social Impact Bonds as a Funding Method for Health and Social Programs: Potential Areas of Concern](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5846579/?ref=s3t.org) \- notes the tendency of free market approaches to sometimes miss crucial inputs or goals. "The use of market-friendly accountability metrics to determine the success of services has also been shown to limit time spent with clients, undermine values such as “caring,” and leave little space for the voices of people using programs.[4](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5846579/?ref=s3t.org#bib4) Finally, the focus on individual behaviors as preeminent causes of health outcomes runs contrary to scholarship on the structural factors that generate preventable ill health.[7–9](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5846579/?ref=s3t.org#bib7)"
[Nirvana Insurance uses AI trained on billions of miles of trucking data](https://techcrunch.com/2023/10/17/nirvana-nabs-57m-to-make-ai-inroads-into-commercial-trucking-insurance/?ref=s3t.org) to offer more affordable insurance for small trucking companies. Look for similar approaches to be applied in healthcare as data standardization and use of modern analytics increases.
💎️ **For Paying Members: [Learning path for Healthcare leaders](https://www.s3t.org/learning-path-for-healthcare-leaders/).** This curated list of books and papers will give you a grounding in the current and evolving models of risk and capital management in healthcare.
---
## Emerging Tech
### Crypto Blue Chips? Fidelity's Investment Thesis for Ethereum
Fidelity has decades of experience helping institutional investors allocate funds across different kinds of investments. In a recent paper Fidelity applies this expertise to the question "*Is Ethereum a good investment*?"
In their [Ethereum Investment Thesis](https://www.fidelitydigitalassets.com/research-and-insights/ethereum-investment-thesis?ref=s3t.org), Fidelity employs traditional analysis approaches like discounted cash flow (DCF), to structure investor logic that institutions can use to determine whether Ethereum matches their goals and risk tolerance well enough to deserve an allocation in their portfolio.
Fidelity previously released a similar [investment thesis for Bitcoin](https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwisv7vqpv6BAxVQGVkFHQm5B30QFnoECBAQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.fidelitydigitalassets.com%2Fsites%2Fdefault%2Ffiles%2Fdocuments%2Fbitinvthessisstoreofvalue.pdf&usg=AOvVaw3buczDESkvjZNy-k6cM4sd&opi=89978449) (PDF) but no other digital assets. **Does this mark the start of "Crypto Blue Chips"?** ...a new class of digital assets given higher credibility due to formal evaluation and endorsement of traditional finance players?
---
Photo by [david Griffiths](https://unsplash.com/@itscakefortea?ref=s3t.org) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
###
## **The Final Stretch: Your Countdown Guide Top 5 Ways to Finish the Year Strong"**
##
There are about 2 months left in 2023!
*Which of these feelings do you identify with the most, as you contemplate the end of the year and the time left?*
- "I haven't achieved everything I set out to do."
- "We're running out of time and there's still so much!"
- "Others seem to be accomplishing more than I am."
- "I just want to relax and take it easy."
- "Next year we're going to have a tougher time"
- "I've grown and learned so much this year."
- "I'm grateful for the support and opportunities I've had this year."
- "I'm excited about the new opportunities next year."
- "I've accomplished a lot this year."
Some of these feelings are more helpful than others - some can be catalysts to help us prioritize and take the best actions in the time that remains. Some of these feelings are passing thoughts that don't add a lot of value. It's natural to feel them, just don't stay stuck with them.
I want to show you **the top 5 ways you can give yourself the kind of strong finish that you want to have.**
### **#5\. Review your year-to-date progress and document your results**:
Go through your notes and organize them succinctly. Highlight the major wins and the lessons you learned this year. Keep it short. Nothing says "clueless" like a long novel about all the great things you think you did. Keep the statements short. Share the impact, with dollar figures or other numbers.
- Reduced data quality issues by 95%
- Prevented $6M worth of cost overruns.
Do the necessary research to confirm your figures. This gives you confidence as you prepare for year-end evaluations.
Start it now, and take a few minutes every few days to read and update it. By the time you're wrapping up the year, you'll have the satisfaction of a nice organized record of your achievements and learning. :
- Revisit your initial goals and objectives.
- Measure your progress against your set OKRs or metrics.
- Identify areas where you're on track and areas that need more focus.
### **#4\. Prioritize the Must Finish Critical Projects**
List all ongoing projects and rank them by importance and deadline. Confirm with your manager or stakeholders which items are "must-finish" vs "nice-to-have" by year-end.
With their input, make a plan that maximizes your focus on completing the "must-finish" high-impact projects that align with annual goals. You can optimize teamwork by organizing regular check-ins to ensure open communication, monitor progress and address challenges quickly.
### **#3 Keep learning**
Resist the temptation to assume that it's too late to learn something new:
- Identify any skills or tools that can accelerate project completion, and see if there are short courses or training sessions that can help you quickly sharpen up your skills.
- Seek Feedback: Engage stakeholders, clients, or users for their perspectives. Implement feedback that aligns with end-of-year objectives.
- Around the end of the year, a set of annual industry reviews and forecasts are published by tech and business consultancies and advisors. It's a perfect time to make yourself aware of industry shifts or changes that might impact your projects in the new year, and adjust your strategies to stay relevant.
### #2 Embrace accountability and make things right
If there are individuals that you experienced tension or conflict with, or stakeholders you may have disappointed, go proactively and address the issue in an open humble way. It's hard yes, but at the same time, its not. Make the appointment. Sit down with them, take a deep breath, and speak from the heart. Suggested ways to start the conversation:
- "I wasn't happy with how I handled things."
- "I have been thinking about what happened, and what I can learn."
- "I wanted to share how I've been trying to improve, and see if you had additional suggestions."
Now, some people will advise you NOT to do this. They'll say you're admitting that you deserve lower marks on your annual review.
But remember:
*You get to decide your definition of a successful year and a strong finish.*
- Is it to keep a low profile and hope no one notices where you need improvement?
- Or does your definition of success call for you to have the courage to be accountable? To learn and improve as quickly as you can?
People's perceptions of you and your performance will generally be more positive if they see you being accountable, owning your opportunities for growth, and making efforts to improve.
### #1 Don't wait till Thanksgiving to get a positive thankful attitude
Throughout this whole year, people helped you. They deferred to you, trusted your judgment, and gave you second chances. This happens all the time and we usually don’t see it. Instead we usually choose to focus on the insults, the slights, the misunderstandings, the negatives.
The biggest thing single thing that you can do to help you have a strong successful finish for the year is to deliberately switch to a positive grateful attitude. If that seems hard, just remember and realize, you were given a lot this year. Start noticing the opportunities, the great experiences and think about all the times others were patient with you and helped you. Went above and beyond maybe in ways that you didn't recognize at the time. Nothing will supercharge your end-of-year performance, open up the communication channels, and increase effective collaboration like switching into a positive grateful mindset.
### Summary
As 2023 draws to a close, understand we all experience a range of emotions as we approach the end of the year. We can use them to propel us forward. Focus on your own unique learning and growth journey. Take the 5 tactics shared here and adapt them to make the most of the remaining days and weeks in 2023\. Above all, remember: YOU get to define what a successful finish looks like for you. Best wishes for a strong finish!
---
Thank you for reading! Have a great week!
Ralph
### 🚧️ S3T Oct 13: IMF outlook, SBF trial, Mental health, AI empathy, NSA, Ownership mindset part 3
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-oct-13/
Last updated: 2023-10-13T05:28:15.000Z
🙏️ Thank you for reading and forwarding to **someone you know will get value out of it. You can help empower more individuals with skills for driving positive change.*
Get more from S3T: [Sign up for a free 14-day trial of the Paid Edition](https://www.s3t.org/14-day-free-trial), including access to the entire library of S3T Newsletter editions and online resources to accelerate your learning and development.
**In this edition of S3T: What leaders are talking about this week**
- **Macroeconomy:** IMF's Gloomy outlook for global economy; Disney up, Louis Vutton down; the global cost burden of mental health.
- **Emerging Tech:** Fallout from the SBF Trial; longer timeline for AI in healthcare? Artifical empathy; GenAI for RFPs; NSA launches AI unit.
- **For Paid Memberships: Change leadership: Kindling an ownership mindset in your own team**.
*🔊 [Listen to this edition on the S3T Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org)*
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial advice. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed.*
---
## Macroeconomy
*Latest economic context and developments impacting the financial decisions of your stakeholders and customers.*
### IMF's gloomy outlook on the global economy
The Global Economy is "limping along" per [a new report from the IMF](https://www.reuters.com/markets/imf-says-global-economy-limping-along-cuts-growth-forecast-china-euro-area-2023-10-10/?ref=s3t.org) which sees reduced growth for China and Europe, as well as risks for emerging economies. Notably, the report calls out rising economic risks due to geoeconomic fragmentation (the deglobalization/multi-polar world discussed in previous editions of S3T). [Read the full report here](https://www.imf.org/en/News/Seminars/Campaigns/2023/AM2023-recap-day-2?ref=s3t.org).
### Disney Up, Louis Vutton Down
Disney will impose [steep price increases for passes to its parks](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-11/disneyland-lifts-prices-up-to-9-florida-annual-passes-rise-too?ref=s3t.org). Meanwhile, shares for Luxury brand family LMVH (Louis Vuitton Moet Hennessy) [slipped to the lowest level since January on economic concerns](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/lvmh-sales-growth-slows-amid-143647019.html?ref=s3t.org), and the index of Europe's top 10 luxury stocks had its [biggest quarterly drop since 2020](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bernard-arnault-world-second-richest-105254727.html?ref=s3t.org).
"...the blockbuster period for luxury is starting to fade.”
\- [Victoria Scholar, Interactive Investor](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/luxury-goods-giant-lvmh-shares-090722010.html?ref=s3t.org)
---
### The Cost Burden of Mental Health
Mental Health issues result in suffering for individuals as well as economic impacts for employers and the economy as a whole.
- Globally, mental health issues [cause $1 Trillion every year in lost productivity](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/mental-health-at-work?ref=s3t.org).
- In the US, [mental health among workers is improving](https://www.benefitspro.com/2023/10/05/the-mental-health-of-u-s-employees-is-on-the-rise-but-will-it-stay-that-way/?slreturn=20230908213645&ref=s3t.org). Surveys indicate the overall improvement is due to greater work-life balance associated with remote work options. See [Cisco study (PDF)](https://www.cisco.com/c/dam/m/en%5Fus/solutions/global-hybrid-work-study/reports/cisco-global-hybrid-work-study-2022.pdf?ref=s3t.org), and the [Future Forum survy (PDF)](https://futureforum.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/Future-Forum-Pulse-Report-Summer-2022.pdf?ref=s3t.org).
That said, much work remains. How to keep this positive trend going:
- Be alert to opportunities to help individuals who may still be [struggling to establish work-life boundaries](https://fortune.com/2022/10/10/remote-work-hurting-mental-well-being-work-life-boundaries-careers-bosses-gleb-tsipursky/?ref=s3t.org).
- Encourage people to talk about what they need. Be aware of how self-silencing (not acknowledging or speaking up about your own needs) can [impact your mental and physical well-being](https://time.com/6319549/silencing-women-sick-essay/?ref=s3t.org).
###
---
## Emerging Tech
*Need to know technology developments for leaders who need to manage technology investments and risks.*
### Sam Bankman-Fried trial: possible fallout for financial innovation
If you want to follow the proceedings of the Sam Bankman-Fried trial (big IF, yes I realize), NLW, the host of the Breakdown podcast AND *former FTX employee* has been providing [great summaries from an unusually informed perspective](https://open.spotify.com/show/538vuul1PuorUDwgkC8JWF?ref=s3t.org).
Why this matters to financial innovation: As the trial unfolds, one of two perceptions could take hold in the public consciousness:
- Crypto is weeding out the scammers
- Crypto *is* a bunch of scammers
This plus the ETF filings awaiting SEC action mean that Q4 may see roller-coaster price action for leading crypto assets. In addition, the public perceptions forged during the Bankman-Fried trial could impact the adoption timeline of decentralized/blockchain-based architectures by regulated industries.
### Longer than anticipated timeline for AI in healthcare?
Dr. Lloyd Mino, Dean of Standford's School of Medicine [thinks we are 10 years away from seeing broad societal benefits from AI](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/artificial-intelligence-medicine-innovation-6739b4f8?mod=followamazon&ref=s3t.org) in part because it will take time to prove to the public that we can use AI safely and responsibly in healthcare.
"If AI is deployed responsibly in healthcare, I think 10 years from now we will be seeing the benefits societally and at the level of the individual in ways that people will, yes, have concerns, but they will be pleased with the transformation in their health." Minor said.
### Artificial Empathy
Initial experimentation suggests that [AI can enhance empathy in communications](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/artificial-empathy-is-coming-are-we-ready-for-emotions-from-ai/ar-AA1hPYyr?ref=s3t.org#image=1). When humans used AI tools that had been trained for empathy, their responses were \~19% more empathetic compared to responses created by humans alone. Notably, the responses were 38% more empathetic from individuals who self-identified as having difficulty providing empathetic responses. [See paper here (PDF)](https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwiVnJC94ueBAxU2D1kFHWOMDMgQFnoECDgQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Farxiv.org%2Fpdf%2F2203.15144&usg=AOvVaw31vDfJSRL8n%5FyExe7MB5sA&opi=89978449).
### GenAI for RFPs and Proposals
That proposal you're reviewing? It may have been written by ChatGPT or the like. Increasingly companies are [using GenAI to handle the text-intensive work of responding to RFPs](https://www.wired.com/story/generative-ai-chatgpt-is-coming-for-sales-jobs/?ref=s3t.org). Example: Twilio's RFP Genie (a GenAI tool the company is developing internally) is speeding up the company's ability to churn out proposals.
### AI and National Security
The National Security Agency is [launching an AI security center that will work as part of the NSA's Cybersecurity Collaboration Center](https://apnews.com/article/nsa-artificial-intelligence-security-deepfakes-f9b19dd64890884cc2b0700ddf66e666?ref=s3t.org) to protect against threats from adversaries using AI.
---
## *For Paying Members*
## Change Leadership: Cultivating an ownership mindset in your own team
We've been learning about the power of an ownership mindset - and how it makes a dramatic difference in the way teams and partners overcome challenges and navigate toward success.
We've looked at how to kindle an ownership mindset in 2 groups so far:
- The partners or vendors who don't report directly to you, but are obligated by contracts or other agreements.
- The stakeholders who don't report to you, and aren't bound by contractual agreements, but whose contributions are still critical to the outcome. These may be subject matter experts, academic partners, board members, or other stakeholders whose expertise or support is needed.
Each of these has unique challenges and we learned specific tactics to help us instill that ownership mindset and deeper level of commitment.
This week you're going to learn how to build an ownership mindset in the team that reports to you. If you're like many managers you may feel like you are struggling to develop an ownership mindset in your team members. But there are a few simple but powerful tactics that you can start using right away - and soon you'll start to see signs of an ownership mindset taking hold in your team. *You can do this.*
This is timely: as your team members approach the end of the year, and reflect on their growth and achievements, it's the perfect opportunity to bring up the topic of ownership mindset.
Let's start off by addressing a current reason why many teams fail to cultivate an ownership mindset.
### The dark side of OKRs and KPIs
If we're not careful about how we talk about OKRs (Objectives and Key Results) or KPI's (Key Performance Indicators) we can foster the wrong mindset.
Have you seen this pattern in your organization?
- The only thing we care about is making the numbers
- Making the numbers usually runs afoul of things outside our control
- Therefore our #1 goal is *not getting blamed* for not making the numbers.
Cue the blame games, which aren't what they used to be. Blaming people still happens sometimes, but we've moved on to more sophisticated blame games:
- Questioning our process,
- Complaining about too many meetings,
- Burning time talking about what was leadership thinking when they decided to do (whatever it was they did).
These behaviors reinforce a spectator mindset of non-ownership and helplessness. They focus everyone's most powerful thoughts on how to look smart while deflecting accountability.
We want to focus everyone's most powerful thinking on how to achieve unusually impactful outcomes and how to overcome the challenges that stand between us and outcomes. To do that, we need to kindle an ownership mindset in our team.
## 3 complementary ways to kindle an ownership mindset in your team:
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### 💡️S3T Oct 6 2023: Indigenous Innovators, LMM, Real Estate, RIP Free Mkt? Telegram Wallet, Ownership mindset Part 2
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-oct-6-2023/
Last updated: 2023-10-06T05:28:38.000Z
🙏️ Share S3T Today! **Forward the email or podcast** *with someone you know will get value out of it. You can help us grow and help empower others to have an impact!*
If you are receiving this email from a friend and want to sign up for the S3T Newsletter or paid membership, visit S3T.ORG and sign up today!
**In this edition of S3T: What leaders are talking about this week**
- **Special Feature: Indigenous People's Day Oct 9:** Indigenous People are *innovators worthy to be our mentors*.Indigenous Doulas are improving maternal health outcomes. Looking back: How Native Hawaiian Women regained their power to rule.
- **Macro Economics:** Job Market normalizing, Real Estate outlook, Global vs Local Economics.
- **Emerging Tech:** LMMs, Fine-grained control for Autonomous Language Agents, Telegram's Crypto Capabilities and why they're not available in the US.
- **For Paid Memberships:** 6 Tactics for Kindling an Ownership Mindset in Stakeholders.
### 🔊 [Listen to this edition on the S3T Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org)
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial advice. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed.*
---
## Indigenous Innovators
Monday, October 9 is Indigenous People's Day, and this marks the 3rd year it has been officially observed in the US (see Presidential Proclamations for [2021](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/10/08/a-proclamation-indigenous-peoples-day-2021/?ref=s3t.org) and [2022](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2022/10/07/a-proclamation-on-indigenous-peoples-day-2022/?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=BIDEN%20JR.%2C%20President%20of%20the,with%20appropriate%20ceremonies%20and%20activities.)). This is a great opportunity for us to learn and reflect. Here are some points that caught my attention recently.
In *[Suspending Damage: A Letter to Communities](https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjd896hzpaBAxVcEFkFHUPcBsAQFnoECCIQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fpages.ucsd.edu%2F~rfrank%2Fclass%5Fweb%2FES-114A%2FWeek%25204%2FTuckHEdR79-3.pdf&usg=AOvVaw23zqzRDH-9Ri3W9JTvyrSb&opi=89978449)* (PDF) Eve Tuck notes that well-intentioned researchers [have often focused on the "damage done"](https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2009-18354-001?ref=s3t.org) to indigenous peoples and their environment and culture.
"*This kind of research operates with a flawed theory of change: it is often used to leverage reparations or resources for marginalized communities yet simultaneously reinforces and reinscribes a one-dimensional notion of these people as depleted, ruined, and hopeless.*"
Tuck acknowledges that injustice should be recognized and addressed, but argues that we should be careful of viewing Indigenous people in a one-dimensional manner.
We think of Indigenous people as victims. **But they are also innovators worthy of being mentors to the rest of the world:**
- These [7 Indigenous inventions revolutionized healthcare](https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicolefisher/2020/11/29/7-native-american-inventions-that-revolutionized-medicine-and-public-health/?sh=26ac0a631e73&ref=s3t.org): Syringes, pain relievers, oral contraceptives, sun screen, baby bottles, mouth wash, suppositories.
- We [can't imagine not having these inventions](https://www.history.com/news/native-american-inventions?ref=s3t.org): Canoes, rubber, sign language, tar/asphalt, suspension bridges and more (another [list here](https://www.buzzfeed.com/andriamoore/indigenous-people-inventions?ref=s3t.org)).
- They evolved enduring [models of sustainable living that developed countries are only beginning to learn about](https://www.survivalinternational.org/articles/10-indigenous-inventions?ref=s3t.org).
- Indigenous peoples are [the world's biggest conservationists and rarely get the credit they deserve](https://www.vox.com/22518592/indigenous-people-conserve-nature-icca?ref=s3t.org).
Indigenous people have made and continue to make high-value contributions to the world.
It's important to call out cases where injustice has been done to a group of people and support them with compassion and purpose. It's also important not to overlook or diminish the contributions, strengths, gifts, and potential of a group.
---
Photo by [Mike Newbry](https://unsplash.com/@mikenewbry?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Indigenous Doulas are addressing maternal death rates
Indigenous Doulas like [Hummingbird Indigenous Family Services](https://www.hummingbird-ifs.org/?ref=s3t.org) are [making a positive difference in maternal outcomes](https://www.elle.com/culture/a45191818/indigenous-doulas-native-women-childbirth-2023/?ref=s3t.org), providing care and support that is saving lives, and helping address the rising maternal mortality rates in the US.
This [recent JAMA study](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/2806661?resultClick=1&ref=s3t.org) of state-level data in the US found that maternal deaths increased sharply during the 20-year period between 1999 and 2019\.
Maternal deaths per 100,000 women (1999 to 2019):
- American Indian and Alaska Native: 14.0 to 49.2
- Black: 26.7 to 55.4
- Asian, Native Hawaiian, or Other Pacific Islander: 9.6 to 20.9
- Hispanic: 9.6 to 19.1
- White: 9.4 to 26.3
Tragic, shocking numbers, in an era when we have the technology, data, and medical breakthroughs to do much better. **I appreciate how Indigenous Doulas are taking up this vital change leadership challenge and making a difference for mothers and babies.**
### [F](https://www.mhtf.org/2020/04/28/what-role-could-doulas-play-in-addressing-black-american-maternal-mortality/?ref=s3t.org)urther reading on maternal mortality rates and the positive impacts of doulas:
- Lancet - [Doula support enabled 50% or greater reductions](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370%2822%2900261-9/fulltext?ref=s3t.org) in the likelihood of cesarean, postpartum depression or postpartum anxiety.
- National Health Library - [broad positive impacts of doulas on maternal health outcomes](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10292163/?ref=s3t.org).
- Drexel - [The Role of Doulas in Addressing Black Women's Maternal Mortality](https://drexel.edu/medicine/academics/womens-health-and-leadership/womens-health-education-program/whep-blog/role-of-doulas-in-addressing-black-womens-maternal-mortality/?ref=s3t.org).
- Office of Health Policy - [Doula Care and Maternal Health: An Evidence Review (PDF)](https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwiC9LSphseBAxVNEVkFHea-C9gQFnoECBYQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Faspe.hhs.gov%2Fsites%2Fdefault%2Ffiles%2Fdocuments%2Fdfcd768f1caf6fabf3d281f762e8d068%2FASPE-Doula-Issue-Brief-12-13-22.pdf&usg=AOvVaw0YJw%5FFXkIJIp%5FGOZKaROAm&opi=89978449)
📌
*"Expansion of doula care nationally, with a focus on Black and American Indian and Alaska Native women who experience worse maternal health outcomes, has the potential to reduce disparities." -* [ASPE Office of Health Policy](https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwiC9LSphseBAxVNEVkFHea-C9gQFnoECBYQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Faspe.hhs.gov%2Fsites%2Fdefault%2Ffiles%2Fdocuments%2Fdfcd768f1caf6fabf3d281f762e8d068%2FASPE-Doula-Issue-Brief-12-13-22.pdf&usg=AOvVaw0YJw%5FFXkIJIp%5FGOZKaROAm&opi=89978449)
---
Photo by [Braden Jarvis](https://unsplash.com/@jarvisphoto?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### Looking Back: Native Hawaiian Women and the 19th Amendment
Did you know that Native Hawaiian women routinely held positions of power *prior to* Hawaii's annexation by the United States? [This excellent historical piece reveals the struggle of Native Hawaiian Women](https://getpocket.com/explore/item/how-the-19th-amendment-complicated-the-status-and-role-of-women-in-hawai-i?utm%5Fsource=pocket-newtab-en-us) to ***regain their ability to govern*** after Hawaii was annexed by the United States. The 19th Amendment which gave women the right to vote, did not allow the right to hold office.
Nora McGreevy shares the untold story of the *five additional years of advocacy* that it took for the first woman to be able to hold a seat in the Hawaiian Territorial Legislature.
---
## 🤖️ Emerging Tech
### Not LLMs ...LMMs
Large Multimodal Models is a new phrase referring to Large Language Models that have been extended with video or audio...ie multi-sensory skills. [This paper describes the working fundamentals](https://arxiv.org/abs/2309.17421?ref=s3t.org) \- ie computer vision and pattern recognition - the new capabilities that can be enabled. Many of the examples focus on giving ChatGPT an image which it then converts into code (ie JSON) that describes the image.
> ChatGPT Vision takes an image of groceries and converts it to JSON based on the instructions.
>
> GPT-4V is an image processing supertool. [pic.twitter.com/Vx7loyvJNi](https://t.co/Vx7loyvJNi?ref=s3t.org)
>
> — Mckay Wrigley (@mckaywrigley) [October 1, 2023](https://twitter.com/mckaywrigley/status/1708557028149673990?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org)
ChatGPT's introduction of vision capabilities made a big splash this week. Bard has a similar capability:
[Convert this to JSON following the instructions. Identify all the fruits, and for each fruit I need an object with a name property, and a nutrition property with estimated calories, carbs, fat, and protein properties.Created with Bard.](https://bard.google.com/share/847bd55263b3?ref=s3t.org)
### More fine-grained control for Autonomous Language Agents
A new paper proposes an open-source Python framework for autonomous language agents; think chatbots that can perform more complex tasks and interact with people or system components. The creators hope to enable better performance through more fine-grained control. [Full paper and code are available here](https://arxiv.org/abs/2309.07870?ref=dataphoenix.info) on arxiv.org.
### Telegram's Crypto Capabilities
Telegram the privacy-first chat app, is adding a [crypto wallet feature that will allow users to self custody their own digital funds](https://techcrunch.com/2023/09/13/telegram-ton-crypto-wallet/?ref=s3t.org). The wallet will be available globally, **except in the US** (due to lack of regulatory clarity). [Context on SEC's and Telegram's previous legal battles](https://www.analyticsinsight.net/telegram-introduces-self-custodial-crypto-wallet-globally/?ref=s3t.org). Telegram has 800 million monthly active users. Some expect Telegram to follow the WeChat playbook to build out an ecosystem of social and financial services.
---
## 🗺️ Macro Economics
### Job market normalizing - maybe
[Job growth is slowing but still steady](https://apnews.com/article/jobs-unemployment-inflation-layoffs-economy-federal-reserve-9a0309b7644eb10f4069d9cab0d66687?ref=s3t.org), with 187,000 new jobs in August. Some think [the job market may be returning to pre-pandemic norms](https://www.marketplace.org/2023/10/05/job-market-might-finally-be-returning-to-normal-economists-say/?ref=s3t.org) (ie lower wages).
### Real Estate market getting unstuck?
[Hints of hope for homebuyers](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/us-housing-market-homebuyers-home-prices-inventory-sellers-asking-rates-2023-9?ref=s3t.org): Home inventory increased 1.8% in September. 37% of homes on the market have reduced prices, as real estate agents focus on managing buyer & seller expectations.
**Notable**: Lyn Alden, Matthew Lisiak, and Saifdean Ammous are selling economics books at a new bookstore [The Saifhouse](https://thesaifhouse.com/?ref=s3t.org) which - appropriately - accepts Bitcoin as payment.
📌
**NEW!** [S3T Panorama on the Future of Real Estate.](https://www.s3t.org/s3t-panorama-future-of-real-estate/) Panoramas give paying members a strategic outlook with continuously updated data points on how an industry or issue is evolving.
### Global vs. Local Economics
The Economist is worried about the decline of free market globalization and the rise of what it calls "homeland economics". "Governments are jettisoning the principles that made the world rich" huffs the tagline of this piece [Are Free Markets History](https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/10/05/are-free-markets-history?ref=s3t.org)?
On the other side of the debate, this Bangkok Post op-ed by Antara Haldara offers an intriguing - perhaps premature - [obituary of the Chicago School free market economics](https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/2657789/laying-the-chicago-school-of-economics-to-rest?ref=s3t.org). The author notes the unsavory origin story of the Chicago School's principles (Pinochet's Chile), and correctly asserts that the free market idea has serious limitations:
- The actions of individuals and firms "routinely deviate from economic rationality"
- "People make decisions with 'bounded rationality' (limited information), 'bounded willpower' (knowing better, but doing something anyway), and...bounded self-interest (showing concern for more than one's own material welfare)"
In other words, a free market is not "all there is" and it certainly is no substitute for values and conscience.
---
**Special Feature for Paying Members**
# 🧭 How to Kindle an Ownership Mindset in Key Stakeholders: A Guide for Change Leaders
Kindling an ownership mindset in key stakeholders and partners can make a profound difference in the success of an initiative, by opening doors to resources, connections, increased influence, and crucial decisions. Having the support and sponsorship of key stakeholders helps to position your team for greater success.
### Cultivating an Ownership Mindset in Non-obligated parties
For many change leaders, connecting with key stakeholders is a challenge:
- These individuals or groups are not typically easy to access.
- These individuals or groups may not initially see themselves as stakeholders or potential partners at all.
Because these parties don't report to you, and aren't bound by a contract or other agreement, they can be the most difficult to reach and align with.
How do you get key stakeholders—who have no direct reporting relationship or obligation to you—invested in your mission?
## Let's level set on what's required
### Recognize this is an investment
Cultivating an ownership mindset in your key stakeholders requires an investment on your part:
- At the outset of an initiative, it's an investment of time and relationship building so you can ensure that the outcome is clearly understood and cared about by the parties who need to work together to make it happen.
- Throughout the duration of the initiative, it's an ongoing investment to ensure that the ownership mindset is maintained by all of the contributing parties. Cultivating an ownership mindset is a continuous effort.
It is not something that you simply do in the beginning of an initiative and then forget about it
### Understand the risk and effort you may be asking stakeholders to take on
When you ask for the involvement and commitment of a stakeholder, it helps for you to be aware of what they may already be involved in, what responsibilities they carry, and what constraints they may have. You also want to have an awareness of the level of effort and level of risk you may be asking them to take on. Typically it is better to start small - asking for small commitments or steps, that allow you to get acquainted and build trust. Then proceed to higher levels of commitment from there.
The following Risk x Effort matrix illustrates a hypothetical path that a stakeholder might take to higher and higher levels of commitment to your cause.
Now that you understand these points, you are ready to learn six tactics that will help you build successful working relationships with key stakeholders.
## 6 Tactics that will help you kindle an ownership mindset and lasting commitment in your key stakeholders.
Here are the success tactics you can use to kindle an ownership mindset with key stakeholders who have no obligation to help, but could make a significant positive difference if they did.
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### 🍂️ S3T Sept 29 - BTC ETF, CBDC Surveillance Risk, CPU vs GPU, AI Raybans, Euro coin, How to cultivate an ownership mindset
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-sept-29/
Last updated: 2023-09-29T05:28:23.000Z
🍁️ **Its ok to forward this email**
*Share with someone you know will get value out of it. You're helping us grow and empower more individuals with skills for driving positive change.*
If you received this email from a friend and want to join S3T, [click here to sign up for a free 14 day trial now](https://www.s3t.org/14-day-free-trial)!
**In this edition of S3T: Latest insights and need-to-know updates for change leaders:**
- **Macroeconomics:** The upside of a Bitcoin ETF vs. near-term bearish sentiment. A Euro-backed stablecoin is gaining ground.
- **Emerging Tech:** Crypto Legislation, CBDC and Surveillance Risks: Digital Currencies and Human Rights
- **AI Tools:** Meta AI product releases, CPU/GPU,ChatGPT web browsing is back, New AI Data Analysis tool to offer private cloud edition.
- **Nature Notes:** S3T helping fund Stripe Climate initiatives, Birdcast lets you track of bird migration this fall.
- **For Paid Memberships:** Gain an edge by kindling an ownership mindset in vendors and partners.
*🔊* [Listen to this edition on the S3T Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org)
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial advice. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed.*
---
## Macroeconomics
### Bitcoin ETF to attract $300B in 2024?
Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital, a leading crypto hedge fund, anticipates that a Bitcoin ETF (likely BlackRock's application) will finally be approved by early 2024, and [could attract an estimated $300 Billion in new investments in Bitcoin](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/spot-bitcoin-etf-would-attract-$300-billion:-hedge-fund-director?ref=s3t.org). Go [here for an explanation of Exchange Traded Funds](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/etf.asp?ref=s3t.org) (ETFs). here for an explanation of Exchange Traded Funds
In the near term however, Bitcoin investors are watching for downward price movement as [$3B in options are due to expire on September 29](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-struggles-maintain-rally-amid-113515522.html?ref=s3t.org).
### Euro Backed Stablecoin Expands its Availability
Euro Coin (EURC) the Euro-backed Stablecoin is [now available on the Stellar network](https://cointelegraph.com/news/circle-launches-native-euro-stablecoin-stellar?ref=s3t.org) \- its third network. The coin had already launched on Ethereum and Avalanche.
---
## Emerging Tech
### Bad Timing for Crypto Legislation
This week Congress considers whether or not to move forward with the [Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act](https://financialservices.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=408921&ref=s3t.org), a long overdue framework for clarifying how cryptocurrencies will be regulated. [The bill comes forward at a challenging time](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-crypto-industry-comes-washington-faces-uphill-struggle-2023-09-27/?ref=s3t.org) however, just when Congress's attention is divided across a number of issues including the [prospect of a government shutdown](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senate-house-hold-procedural-votes-partial-government-shutdown-looms-2023-09-28/?ref=s3t.org).
The legislation faces vocal opposition from a notable set of entities (see [this opposition letter and the list of organizations who signed it](https://www.nclc.org/resources/opposition-letter-to-h-r-digital-asset-market-structure-discussion-draft/?ref=s3t.org)).
Look up the annual reports of these entities and you'll notice a significant number of **large donations from banks.** A few examples you can review:
- [Woodstock Institute](https://woodstockinst.org/annual-report-2022/?ref=s3t.org)
- [Rise Economy](https://risestl.org/annual-reports/rise-2020-annual-report/?ref=s3t.org#report/12)
- [Center for American Progress](https://www.americanprogress.org/c3-our-supporters/?ref=s3t.org)
Large dollar donors that show up repeatedly...ie are donating to multiple signers of the opposition letter: US Bank, PNC Bank, Bank of America, Mastercard.
It is telling that opposition to legislation that seeks a clear regulatory framework for new technology is being opposed by a set of incumbents.
### Anti-Surveillance State Act
Meanwhile, another bill is advancing in Congress: [The Anti-Surveillance State Act](https://www.cryptopolitan.com/cbdc-anti-surveillance-state-act-advances/?ref=s3t.org) seeks to limit the federal government's ability to create digital currencies *and issue them directly to citizens*. Here's why the italicized phrase matters:
- Digital currencies are run by software. If a digital currency is run by a government, this opens up a set of potential human rights issues.
- The software enabling a digital currency can be used to gather information about every person using the currency, block or change purchases, make purchases without the person's consent and even deprive a person of their funds.
- If the entity operating that software is a centralized government entity, then that government is suddenly in a position to know and interfere in a much more omnipresent/omnipotent way than any governments have been able to in the past.
Recommend contacting your elected officials to share your views on both of these crucial pieces of legislation.
- [House.gov's has this handy page](https://www.house.gov/representatives/find-your-representative?ref=s3t.org) where you can enter your zip code and be directed to your Representative.
- [Senate.gov has a similar page](https://www.senate.gov/senators/senators-contact.htm?ref=s3t.org) where you enter your state and get connected with your Senator.
---
## AI Processing and Tools
### AI: Shift from GPU to CPU?
[Numenta](https://www.numenta.com/?ref=s3t.org)'s "Numenta Platform for Intelligent Computing" aka NuPIC is making waves with promises [to allow a shift from GPUs to CPUs for AI processing](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/numenta-transforms-ai-landscape-nupic-130000254.html?ref=s3t.org). Note however, this is specific to AI *inference* (using a trained model to make predictions), not AI *model training* which continues to rely heavily on highly scalable GPUs. Here is [an explainer detailing the use of CPUs for AI inference](https://venturebeat.com/ai/ai-inference-acceleration-on-cpus/?ref=s3t.org) from the Intel perspective ([Intel is a collaborator with Numenta](https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/customer-spotlight/stories/numenta-transformer-networks-customer-story.html?ref=s3t.org)).
### New AI Data Analysis Tool: TalktoData
Upload a spreadsheet - even a multi-tab spreadsheet - and [TalktoData](https://talktodata.ai/?ref=s3t.org) will help you analyze and create charts to illustrate key insights. TalktoData says they offer **private cloud deployments for companies with sensitive data.**
> ChatGPT can now browse the internet to provide you with current and authoritative information, complete with direct links to sources. It is no longer limited to data before September 2021\. [pic.twitter.com/pyj8a9HWkB](https://t.co/pyj8a9HWkB?ref=s3t.org)
>
> — OpenAI (@OpenAI) [September 27, 2023](https://twitter.com/OpenAI/status/1707077710047216095?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org)
### ChatGPT Gets Its Web Connection Back
Some of you may remember ChatGPT's short-lived ability to connect to the Internet, turned off due to paywall violations and other concerns. Well, a better-behaved web browsing capability has now been activated in ChatGPT and it no longer has the September 2021 knowledge cutoff!
### LLama Has Been Busy
This week Meta released a slew of [Llama 2-based AI capabilities](https://about.fb.com/news/2023/09/introducing-ai-powered-assistants-characters-and-creative-tools/?ref=s3t.org) including [AI Rayban Smart Glasses](https://about.fb.com/news/2023/09/new-ray-ban-meta-smart-glasses/?ref=s3t.org), a new AI Assistant, photo editing capabilities, AI stickers for Instagram and more.
---
Photo by [Ram Kishor](https://unsplash.com/@kishor1176?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Nature Notes
### The Stripe Climate Initiative
If you are a paying member of S3T, a portion of your subscription goes to support a portfolio of 45 climate projects, including 14 early-stage carbon removal companies that plan to collectively remove more than a half a million tons of CO2 per year by 2026\.
[Stripe Climate Project Portfolio](https://stripe.com/climate?ref=s3t.org)
Click the link here to learn more:
[S3T : Our carbon removal commitmentS3T has joined Stripe Climate to help new carbon removal technologies scale. Learn more about what we’re doing and why it matters.](https://climate.stripe.com/rQmpdP?ref=s3t.org)
**When you [sign up as a paying subscriber](https://www.s3t.org/14-day-free-trial) you are fueling S3T's mission of empowering change leaders *while also* supporting critical climate initiatives that make a difference.** A special thanks for paying members!
### Birdcast for Fall Migration
The Birdcast team has once again started their annual coverage of Fall Migration, with nightly forecast maps showing how many birds will be migrating that evening. Many people know about bird migration, but what many don't realize is that most birds migrate at night.
Its amazing to think about: Each night during the spring and fall - while you and I are sleeping - hundreds of millions of birds of all sizes are flying over head on their annual migration. Follow this amazing phenomena at Birdcast.info.
[BirdCast - Bird migration forecasts in real-timeWhen, where, and how far will birds migrate? How many birds passed last night? Our tools help you explore the answers to these and many other questions about bird migration.The Cornell Lab of Ornithology](https://birdcast.info/?ref=s3t.org)
Photo by [Charles Forerunner](https://unsplash.com/@charles%5Fforerunner?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
---
### *For Paying Members:* (Part 1 of a 3 part series on ownership mindset)
## Change Leadership: Gain an edge by cultivating an ownership mindset in your vendors and partners.
In our last edition of S3T we noted the power of an ownership mindset - and specifically the way an ownership mindset improves our ability to fine-tune execution and delivery processes and achieve the required outcomes.
This week we build on that by answering the question: *how do you share and cultivate an ownership mindset?*
### Here's what they didn't tell you
You'll need to cultivate an ownership mindset in *multiple* *parties*:
- The team that reports to you.
- The partners or vendors who don't report directly to you, but are obligated by contracts or other agreements.
- The individuals or teams who don't report to you, and aren't bound by contractual agreements, but whose contributions are still critical to the outcome. These may be subject matter experts, academic partners, board members, or other stakeholders whose expertise or support is needed.
Cultivating an ownership mindset in *all* 3 of these groups is a bigger challenge than what is usually presented in leadership learning materials that talk about ownership mindset. These materials usually focus only on cultivating an ownership mindset in your direct reports.
So why would you want to go the extra mile and take on the added challenge of cultivating an ownership mindset in these other parties?
Here's why: if these other parties aren't equally aware and committed to owning their role in the outcome, their lack of ownership will have a negative impact on your team's morale and ultimately their ability to deliver. The entire initiative and its outcome will be diminished.
This week we will focus on how to cultivate an ownership mindset in your vendors and partners.
### Why an ownership mindset matters in vendors and partners
It's logical to ask, why cultivate an ownership mindset in partners and vendors when you have a contract that tells them what they have to do? Unfortunately, a contract alone doesn't guarantee success. You can likely point to situations where vendors fulfilled the letter of the contract, but the end results were far from satisfactory.
When vendors and partners work and engage with an ownership mindset, they are more likely to:
- Connect the dots and anticipate what is needed, vs. waiting to be told.
- Notice issues and opportunities - they're more awake to what is going on, vs. going through the motions.
- Take initiative, remove roadblocks and solve tough problems in a timely manner.
- Be relevant: likely to be focused on the right things at the right times.
They are also less likely to dump issues on others or ignore festering situations that increase risks and costs.
### How to Cultivate an Ownership Mindset in your Vendors and Partners
It had been a long meeting. The vendors didn't understand why we were so adamant about certain provisions in our agreement. Our team couldn't understand why the vendors were hesitating. Finally, the painful meeting came to a close and no one felt like anything had been accomplished. By all indicators, we were at a stalemate. This wasn't going to work out. And it was a shame.
We let everyone off the call, and I asked the vendor if I could talk afterward for a few minutes.
I thanked them for being patient with us. I told them I was glad they were bringing fresh perspectives, and that I thought it was very important for us to find a way to work together. They'd be good for us.
But, I said to them, there's something you need to understand.
What's that, they wanted to know.
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### 💎️ S3T Sept 22 - Fragile Agile, Healthcare costs, Fear Index, Billionaire migration, Bakong, VC Spike, AI for paperwork, Pryon
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-sept-22-2023/
Last updated: 2023-10-18T00:48:54.000Z
🙏️ **Forward this email to a friend who will be inspired or encouraged by one of this week's segments!**
Change leaders look out for each other, and share insights that can help with current challenges or questions.
If you are receiving this email from a friend and want to sign up for the S3T Newsletter or paid membership, visit S3T.ORG and sign up today!
---
**Welcome new members! In this edition of S3T: What leaders are talking about this week**
- **Macroeconomics:** Healthcare costs spiking to unprecedented levels in 2024\. What's next for the Fear index? Where high networth indivduals are migrating across the globe.
- **Emerging Tech Key Themes for Leaders:** More AI Tools and Solutions, big uptick in VC funding, the company introducing Asia to blockchain.
- **For Paid Memberships: Agile getting fragile: Today's change initiatives don't fit neatly into agile. How to adjust.** One key ingredient that makes the biggest difference regardless of what delivery method you use.
*🔊* [Listen to this edition on the S3T Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org)
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial advice. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed.*
---
## Macroeconomics
### Interest Rates
The Fed [left interest rates unchanged this week](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/futures-inch-up-hopes-pause-fed-rate-hikes-2023-09-20/?ref=s3t.org), but signaled other rate hikes are possible in the future, or that rates may stay higher for longer.
### Health benefits costs spiking
2024 will bring [the biggest healthcare cost increases in a decade](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-employers-see-biggest-healthcare-cost-jump-decade-2024-2023-09-20/?ref=s3t.org) for employers, per the latest forecasts from the benefits consultants that help firms select and tailor health coverage for their employees.
### Market fear has been subsiding, but...
The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) [Volatility Index](https://www.cboe.com/us/indices/dashboard/vix/?ref=s3t.org) aka the "fear index" is at its lowest level since the eve of the pandemic. [Some think this is about to change](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-streets-biggest-fear-gauge-has-been-quiet-thats-likely-about-to-change-093051731.html?guccounter=1&guce%5Freferrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce%5Freferrer%5Fsig=AQAAANpPsaWaedSY5SpWwLtOljMW2l%5FF8rT2uD5IkKFMg1AGniUQIjsxTTCQJBCrORPtYIhYtpLSom8NKyIwEtA31Kn-lrVnNtdh5vSzttqZyaNspeBnTTjfyOqyuDMXuV7QfTok2Cdnk5iNAVf9Tlw8if66n%5Fc34A%5FIzp3Gfz3qvIAk&ref=s3t.org), especially if "higher for longer" interest rates become a new norm.
Above, [CBOE Volatility Index Chart courtesy of FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VIXCLS?ref=s3t.org) as of September 20, 2023\. This forward indicator of expected uncertainty is calculated using S$P 500 index option prices.
### Where the 'aires are going
High-net-worth individuals are leaving BRICS nations, Asia, and Mexico and moving to Australia, UAE, Singapore, Europe and North America. Australia has been a favorite haven for these individuals since 2015\.
> Millionaires & billionaires on move again; anticipated that 122k HNWIs (net worth of at least $1m USD) will move to new country by end of year; [@HenleyPartners](https://twitter.com/HenleyPartners?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org) Private Wealth Migration Report tracked countries which HNWIs have moved from/to over past 10y; [@VisualCap](https://twitter.com/VisualCap?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org) map showcases… [pic.twitter.com/iBlFdn6O6O](https://t.co/iBlFdn6O6O?ref=s3t.org)
>
> — Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) [September 20, 2023](https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders/status/1704603637211619424?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org)
---
## Emerging Tech
### AI Tools & Solutions
- **GitHub Copilot Chat** [beta now available for individuals not just business users](https://techcrunch.com/2023/09/20/github-expands-access-to-copilot-chat-to-individual-users/?ref=s3t.org).
- **Corti plans** to use [AI to handle healthcare paperwork so doctors can focus on care](https://www.pymnts.com/healthcare/2023/cortis-ai-powered-healthcare-solution-attracts-60-million-investment/?ref=s3t.org). The system automates the preparation of documentation for insurance and care.
- **Stack Overflow** is launching OverflowAI a new GenAI powered search and question answering service. [Go here to get on the waiting list.](https://stackoverflow.co/labs/search/?ref=s3t.org)
### Blockchain for Asian Central Banks
Fascinating profile on a [little-known Japanese company that is introducing Aisa to blockchain-based finance](https://restofworld.org/2023/japanese-company-cambodia-digital-banking/?ref=s3t.org). The company got its start designing and delivering Bakong, Cambodia's blockchain payment network that serves 8.5 million accounts and handled $12.2B in transactions in 2022.
### VC Funding for Tech Startups - New Trend?
One couldn't help noticing the barrage of VC funding announcements this week (aggregated on [Techmeme/river](https://www.techmeme.com/river?ref=s3t.org) as of 9:30PM September 20). During the 3-day period of September 18-20, investors poured $1.9 Billion into a range of startups in AI, DeFi, Security and other sectors.
The table below helps put this into context against the average fundraising per day over the course of 2023 so far.
Comparison of average VC fundraising per day
As shown above, this is a 95% increase over the daily rate of fundraising in Q2 2023 and a smaller but still impressive increase over Q1 figures ([as reported by EY's Q2 VC report](https://www.ey.com/en%5Fus/growth/venture-capital/q2-2023-venture-capital-investment-trends?ref=s3t.org)). *Anamoly or new trend?*
**Notable**: [Raleigh NC based AI startup Pryon raised $100 Million](https://www.axios.com/local/raleigh/2023/09/19/pryon-ai-fundraising-tull-chatgpt?ref=s3t.org) this week from investors. Pryon aims to equip businesses with their own AI Assistants that aggregate internal business data and then use it to provide answers and insights to company staff.
---
## Change Leadership Discussion: What is the best way to make things happen
One of THE BIGGEST challenges in leading change initiatives is keeping the momentum going. It can be so hard to just keep things moving, especially if others may not feel the same urgency.
*What is the best approach for driving an initiative so that the desired outcome happens in the most timely and optimal way?*
Santiago's recent post struck a nerve:
> Scrum is a cancer.
>
> I've been writing software for 25 years, and nothing renders a software team useless like Scrum does.
>
> Some anecdotes:
>
> 1\. They tried to convince me that Poker is a planning tool, not a game.
>
> 2\. If you want to be more efficient, you must add process, not… [pic.twitter.com/xgm35jYWiy](https://t.co/xgm35jYWiy?ref=s3t.org)
>
> — Santiago (@svpino) [August 27, 2023](https://twitter.com/svpino/status/1695806027256475777?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org)
### How Well is Agile Aging?
Today's initiatives often don't fit the mold of "software project lifecycles" ...they may involve software development, but they also involve a lot of other things that don't fit neatly into agile frameworks or software development life cycles:
This is especially true for change leadership initiatives.
Change leadership initiatives often require the change leader to bring multiple organizations along a path of change. The processes of these organizations will often differ.
Sometimes you'll have to work *with* traditional approaches ...for example you may have to depend on another organization that follows a process that is non-agile, or requires long lead times.
In addition, you'll be in new territory in at least one aspect of what you're doing: introducing new technology, getting a business to try a new approach, or getting an industry to change its financial model.
There will be no handy framework a consulting company or agile coaching team can pull down off the shelf and show you the way. You'll have to suffer through some trial and error. You'll have to borrow from other industries or domains you aren't familiar with. You'll need to pair up with other disciplines and experts and blend what you both know.
If your change leadership initiative is data-driven - or makes use of AI, this will bring additional challenges. The data and software engineering-intensive AI delivery lifecycle is different - very different - from the typical software delivery lifecycle.
In spite of all this, you'll need to provide stakeholders and or investors with assurances that you can deliver specific capabilities and enablers by specific dates. The answer can't be "We're not sure yet, we're agile."
### Challenges of 21st century projects: What can go wrong
Here are some typical examples of issues that impact agile / scrum teams trying to navigate the increasingly non-standard and complex initiatives of the 21st century.
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T Sept 15: Cantillon Effect, Lightning, PYUSD, India Internet, AI Reg Risk, Talent Strategy for GenAI
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-sept-15/
Last updated: 2023-09-15T05:28:40.000Z
---
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*Share this email with someone you know will get value out of it. You can help us grow and help empower more individuals with skills for driving positive change.*
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*🔊* [Listen to this edition on the S3T Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org)
*Happy Friday, hope you all had a great week! Here is your learning resource with the need-to-know key topics leaders are talking about this week.*
**In this issue**
- **Macro Economics - Inflation Insights.** A look at this week's CPI and PPI data and its nuanced impact on different societal segments, introducing the Cantillon Effect. Plus: India's frequent Internet shutdowns are hampering its digital economy and citizens' well-being.
- **Emerging Tech:** Coinbase's support for Lightning and PayPal's stablecoin, and how these developments could shape future financial transactions. How will the AI Tech Sector address Regulatory Uncertainty?
- **Nature Notes:** Examining nature's resilience in turning former dumpsites and disaster areas into thriving ecosystems.
- **For Paying Members: Designing Org & Job Family Structure**
Deep dive into the future of organizational planning and talent management in the era of GenAI.
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial advice. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed.*
---
## Macro Economics
### Inflation - doing what Inflation does
This week's [CPI](https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwi3qs-huKuBAxVcEmIAHYjOCrU4ChAWegQIBRAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bls.gov%2Fnews.release%2Fpdf%2Fcpi.pdf&usg=AOvVaw0jf3VaDAjhUy1yozqw%5FBMD&opi=89978449) and [PPI](https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20230914413/wholesale-inflation-posts-biggest-increase-in-14-months-ppi-shows?ref=s3t.org) figures indicate continued moderation in the rise of headline inflation, and increases in the prices that companies are able to sell wholesale goods and services for. While these are useful and optimistic macro indicators, it is important to remember that inflation's impact is not fully tracked by these figures and that both inflation and interest rates have different impacts on different segments of society.
For example, when interest rates are hiked in an attempt to control inflation, families will feel the pinch in the form of higher borrowing costs for loans or credit cards. But when interest rates fall, the benefits are disproportionately reaped by corporations and financial services a phenomenon referred to as the Cantillon Effect. This is why the stock market goes up every time there's any hint the Fed will cut rates.
### The Cantillon Effect
The Cantillon effect refers to the uneven distribution of money in an economy. The phenomenon is named for Richard Cantillon who questioned whether money impacts all segments of an economy equally or whether it impacts some more favorably than others.
According to this view, when a central bank pumps more money into the economy, the benefit does not happen evenly. The Austrian economist Friedrich August von Hayek compared this monetary expansion with honey. If you pour honey into a cup, it won’t spread out evenly. It will clump in the middle of the cup first before spreading out.
To apply this to monetary expansion (either the injection of stimulus money or the lowering of interest rates), those who have first access to the money (banks, large corporations) are able to access the money first and use it for loans and investments. This can cause prices to rise before the rest of the population (the less wealthy) has seen any benefit. They pay higher prices even though they may not have benefited from the increase in money at all.
**Further reading**
- Foundation for Economic Education: [The Cantillon Effect: Because of Inflation, We’re Financing the Financiers](https://fee.org/articles/the-cantillon-effect-because-of-inflation-we-re-financing-the-financiers/?ref=s3t.org)
- Austrian Economics Center: [The Cantillon Effect and Populism](https://austriancenter.com/cantillon-effect-populism/?ref=s3t.org)
---
Photo by [Abhinav Srivastava](https://unsplash.com/@abhithelucifer?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### India's Digital Economy hampered by Internet shutdowns
Regional Indian authorities have followed a practice of shutting down Internet access in response to protests, cheating on exams, communal violence, and other concerns, as [detailed in this Human Rights Watch piece](https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/06/13/india-internet-shutdowns-hurt-vulnerable-communities?ref=s3t.org). The staggering toll on both individuals as well as the national economy is coming to light (see WSJ: [*India Keeps Pulling the Plug on its Digital Economy*](https://www.wsj.com/world/india/india-keeps-pulling-the-plug-on-its-digital-economy-c320a6b6?ref=s3t.org)):
- $4.8B in lost economic activity
- 120 million+ people impacted - no work, no food, no services.
India leads the world in depriving its citizens of Internet access - a status that [undermines its Digital India initiative](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/indias-recurrent-internet-shutdowns-threaten-its-own-flagship-digital-initiative-hurt-the-vulnerables/articleshow/100982550.cms?from=mdr&ref=s3t.org). You can help by sharing this story and continuing to bring attention to the issue.
---
## Evolution of Payment & Transactions
###
### Bitcoin Payments get a boost from Coinbase
Coinbase has [announced it will support Lightning, the payments network that runs on Bitcoin](https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/09/13/coinbase-ceo-confirms-exchange-will-support-lightning-which-dramatically-speeds-up-bitcoin-payments/?ref=s3t.org). Cathie Wood of ARK Invest praised the move. Bitcoin, to date the world's most favored crypto asset, is a Layer 1 blockchain that predates most of the later innovations in payment efficiency. Adding [Lightning as a Bitcoin Layer 2](https://cointelegraph.com/learn/what-is-the-lightning-network-in-bitcoin-and-how-does-it-work?ref=s3t.org) enables Bitcoin to enable faster payments.
Coinbase's decision to put its weight behind Lightning could make Bitcoin a contender for a broader set of payment use cases, at least in parts of the world where populations have limited access to banking services.
### Paypal Stablecoin
PayPal's new stablecoin, launched in August [is struggling with adoption](https://cointelegraph.com/news/paypal-pyusd-stablecoin-struggles-with-adoption-nansen?ref=s3t.org), as potential users seem hesitant about what to actually use it for. Paypal claims that the stablecoin enables transactions and transfers with no fees. But you need to [read their long fee schedule](https://www.paypal.com/us/webapps/mpp/paypal-fees?ref=s3t.org) to find the relatively narrow scenarios that actually do not incur fees.
While the outcome of this experiment is unclear, the playbook that PayPal is using - a private network with a more favorable fee structure for members - could benefit industries that have high levels of financial transfers or transactions. Expect more financial services companies and even industry groups to experiment with this concept.
---
Photo by [Dominik QN](https://unsplash.com/@dominik%5Fqn?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## AI Tech Sector: Regulatory Clouds on the Horizon
[RETFound](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-02881-2?ref=s3t.org) is a new self-supervised learning model that evaluates retinal images for signs of eye disease, heart failure, and Parkinsons'. The groundbreaking solution is just one in a class of GenAI innovations that promise to transform healthcare.
But the path for this - and other AI innovations for regulated industries - may be increasingly tricky, as US regulators and lawmakers struggle to come up to speed on the issues. The US is behind - the EU passed the [world's first AI regulations in June](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/headlines/society/20230601STO93804/eu-ai-act-first-regulation-on-artificial-intelligence?ref=s3t.org). But how far behind?
This week's closed-door session in the US Senate provides a clue. The session and commentary afterward [revealed the divergent viewpoints](https://www.wsj.com/tech/musk-warns-senators-about-ai-threat-while-gates-says-the-technology-could-target-world-hunger-121a5890?mod=followamazon&ref=s3t.org) on how to leverage AI's increasingly powerful capabilities while managing their increasingly complex risks.
If the path of crypto regulation is any indicator, it may take some time for lawmakers to turn these divergent viewpoints into coherent laws and agency-level policies for the FDA, SEC, CMS, and the like. Meanwhile, [states are moving forward with AI laws of their own](https://epic.org/the-state-of-state-ai-laws-2023/?ref=s3t.org).
### Lack of Regulatory Clarity may put AI tech sector at risk
Earlier this year investors poured enormous amounts of money into AI stocks with little apparent consideration of when these companies might be able to actually go to market with GenAI-based solutions and build revenue streams capable of providing an ROI.
Some now question the wisdom of these moves and worry the market now is overweight in tech stocks: [just 7 stocks comprise 29% of the S&P 500](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/are-investors-too-overweight-tech-stocks?ref=s3t.org).
These companies may face risks of regulatory dysfunction that impact them two ways:
1. Impacts *during* product design and go to market: unaffordable or unclear approval process.
2. Impacts *after* products and services are on the market: haphazard enforcement actions from federal agencies.
### Pragmatic players are focusing on simpler consumer uses of AI that won't need to wait for Washington.
[Amazon introduced a set of GenAI tools](https://techcrunch.com/2023/09/13/amazon-debuts-generative-ai-tools-that-helps-sellers-write-product-descriptions/?ref=s3t.org) that will help sellers generate better text for marketing and selling their products.
Stability AI introduces [Stable Audio](https://www.stableaudio.com/?ref=s3t.org), a text-to-audio GenAI play that [lets you generate audio clips from a few text phrases](https://venturebeat.com/ai/stability-ai-debuts-stable-audio-bringing-text-to-audio-generation-to-the-masses/?ref=s3t.org). I tried it out, and it never actually returned an output. (The site kept displaying a message that they are "seeing a lot of traffic". So maybe we'll have better luck next week).
---
## Nature Notes: Turning dumps and disasters into havens
Two notable examples of nature's striking ability to recover.
- The Norman J. Levy Park and Preserve was once a notorious NY Landfill. Here is the story of [how the dump became a nature park](https://www.nytimes.com/2000/11/12/nyregion/a-garbage-dump-grows-into-a-park-for-nature-lovers.html?ref=s3t.org).
- The area around the Chernobyl nuclear accident site [is now teeming with wildlife](https://getpocket.com/explore/item/the-chernobyl-disaster-may-have-also-built-a-paradise?ref=s3t.org). The radioactive human-free environment is giving plants and animals a chance to thrive.
Not a license to pollute. But certainly gives you hope!
---
Photo by [note thanun](https://unsplash.com/@notethanun?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## For Paying Members: Designing your org and job family structure to thrive in the GenAI era
**Key insights for organizational planners and talent managers who are thinking about how teams and job families need to evolve over the next 12-24 months.**
There’s a lot we don’t know yet about GenAI, but what we do know is that it will redefine the business landscape and work as we know it. It is not too early to start thinking about how this impacts your talent strategy and the families of job positions you manage and hire for in your organization.
Getting started on this requires a strong foundational understanding of what is changing, but also what is staying the same...and becoming even more critical. These elements become the reference points to help you develop your next-generation org and talent strategy.
Armed with this, you will be better prepared for what your company and workforce will face in the next 2-4 years, and able to make better decisions regarding talent strategy, and the job roles that you need to focus on. To do this right we'll have to take a little different way of thinking. Instead of thinking about use cases and what we might do with AI, we're going to deliberately think about what we won't be able to do with AI.
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### 💎️ S3T Sept 8: EthOS Phone, STARS, Open Source LLMs, Paper Ceiling, Talent Retention in the GenAI Era...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-sept-8-2023/
Last updated: 2023-09-10T14:15:32.000Z
##
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**In this edition of S3T: What leaders are talking about this week**
- **Emerging Tech Key Themes for Leaders:** Open Source LLMs for Regulated industries, Cross Chain Financial Settlements, Blockchain Phones
- **Need to Know Economics:** Tearing down the Paper Ceiling - Plus: Plight of Unions
- **For Paid Memberships: Talent Strategy Briefing: Inspiring and Retaining Talent in the GenAI Era.** End of year annual performance review season is just around the corner. So are Autumn All Hands, and Q4 Town Halls. *Rarely has there been a more challenging time for crucial conversations about purpose and performance.* How to proceed.
*🔊* [Listen to this edition on the S3T Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org)
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial advice. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed.*
---
Photo by [Piotr Chrobot](https://unsplash.com/@chrumo?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Emerging Tech
###
Open Source GenAI Models and why they matter for regulated industries
UAE's [Technology Innovation Institute](https://www.tii.ae/?ref=s3t.org) just rolled out Falcon 180B, the largest open-source language model yet with performance allegedly on par with GPT-3.5\. In my testing, GPT-3.5 delivered faster better formatted results. [Try it out here](https://huggingface.co/spaces/tiiuae/falcon-180b-demo?ref=s3t.org).
**Why this is a space to watch**: Open models like Falcon 180B can make it easier for regulated industries like healthcare to make use of GenAI without submitting their data to a 3rd party.
One interesting example (that is still maturing) is [Dolly, an open source LLM from Databricks](https://www.databricks.com/blog/2023/03/24/hello-dolly-democratizing-magic-chatgpt-open-models.html?scid=7018Y000001Fi1CQAS&utm%5Fmedium=paid+search&utm%5Fsource=google&utm%5Fcampaign=17107065832&utm%5Fadgroup=150868748154&utm%5Fcontent=blog&utm%5Foffer=hello-dolly-democratizing-magic-chatgpt-open-models.html&utm%5Fad=665885918547&utm%5Fterm=databricks%20dolly&gclid=CjwKCAjw6eWnBhAKEiwADpnw9okj%5FocTGXTxIcDfnUsgAvSYdKFpuLYMudNdVnor8CBHwa1uBHEOvBoCsKsQAvD%5FBwE) that holds promise for organizations who need to fine-tune a large language model with their own datasets, and then use the model while still complying with their security policies.
### Swift and Cross-Chain Transfers
Swift the financial network that enables secure money transfers around the world has [successfully completed a series of test transfers](https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/64f15602b743742010246b71/?ref=s3t.org) of tokenized assets across a set of different blockchains. The tests utilized Chainlink's Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol and Ethereum.
### Visa and Solana
Visa has [just announced it will now settle stablecoin transactions](https://usa.visa.com/about-visa/newsroom/press-releases.releaseId.19881.html?ref=s3t.org) using the Solana blockchain (in addition to its ongoing use of Ethereum). Visa sees the moves as key to its plan to modernize cross-border money transfers.
### Blockchain Smartphones
[Ethereum Smartphones sold out in 1 day](https://beincrypto.com/ethereum-smartphone-trades-higher-google-pixel/?ref=s3t.org) during a pre-sale event this past week. The phones are Google Pixel's running an EthOS thin client is [one of two blockchain phones coming to the market](https://www.verdict.co.uk/blockchain-phones-solana-saga-versus-ethereum/?ref=s3t.org).
---
Photo by [Joel Filipe](https://unsplash.com/@joelfilip?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Economics: Empowerment and Equity for Employees
### Tearing through the paper ceiling
[The Paper Ceiling](https://www.tearthepaperceiling.org/the-paper-ceiling?ref=s3t.org) \- the barrier to workers who lack a diploma - has become a focus of diversity and inclusion advocates as well as employers struggling to fill roles, **and has crystallized a new term STARs to refer to people who were "Skilled Through Alternative Routes".**
[60% of Americans don't have college degrees](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/04/12/10-facts-about-todays-college-graduates/?ref=s3t.org). These [stats from Opportunity at Work](https://opportunityatwork.org/stars/?ref=s3t.org) shows how the Paper Ceiling impacts groups across the spectrum in the US:
- 61% of Black workers
- 55% of Hispanic workers
- 66% of Rural workers
- 61% of Veterans
Employers are starting to [rethink whether they require college degrees for some roles](https://qz.com/companies-can-drop-degree-requirements-but-they-still-1850741892?ref=s3t.org). In addition, [State governments are tearing down the paper ceiling](ttps://www.brookings.edu/articles/states-are-leading-the-way-in-tearing-the-paper-ceiling-and-making-good-jobs-available-to-workers-without-degrees/), removing degree requirements for state jobs (with bipartisan support).
For a guide on how you can take action on this issue in your organization or industry, see the [Navigating STARs Report](https://opportunityatwork.org/our-solutions/stars-insights/navigating-stars-report/?ref=s3t.org).
### Unions
71% of Americans favor labor unions [per this 2022 Gallup poll](https://news.gallup.com/poll/398303/approval-labor-unions-highest-point-1965.aspx?ref=s3t.org). Still these are [challenging times for unions](https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2023/02/28/1159663461/you-may-have-heard-of-the-union-boom-the-numbers-tell-a-different-story?ref=s3t.org) \- some data [suggests unions don't improve employee engagement and work life](https://www.illinoispolicy.org/labor-poll-finds-unions-fall-short-improving-engagement-work-life/?ref=s3t.org). Unions have played a crucial role in improving work conditions and equity, especially for non-privileged workers. Some of the challenges facing unions seem to also exist for non-union workers as well as noted by this Dept of Labor data on [worker's perceptions of how empowered they are](https://blog.dol.gov/2022/06/13/tracking-the-new-wave-of-worker-organizing-with-data-3-facts-we-learned-from-a-new-collaboration?ref=s3t.org) (union and non-union).
---
Photo by [Husna Miskandar](https://unsplash.com/@hbunny%5F?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## 🧭 Change Leadership: Inspiring and Retaining Talent in the GenAI era.
###
Special Talent Strategy Briefing for Paid Memberships
Technology talent is bombarded today by multiple confusing messages about the economy, technology, and their jobs:
- Crypto and emerging tech companies hired lots of talented individuals in 2021 and early 2022, then over the past year laid off many of them.
- Legacy companies are modernizing, and have been hiring some of this available talent - especially those with cloud and emerging tech skills.
- But now there are wild claims that AI technologies like Stability AI, ChatGPT Code Interpreter will eliminate the need for developers.
> There will be no more programmers in 5 years? [pic.twitter.com/kN7gCqlFG5](https://t.co/kN7gCqlFG5?ref=s3t.org)
>
> — Jan 🇪🇺 (@janponiz) [July 14, 2023](https://twitter.com/janponiz/status/1679879561171828740?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org)
Is this the message you want your key talent being distracted with?
### Leadership Communication about the changing nature of work
End of year annual performance review season is just around the corner. So are Autumn All Hands, and Q4 Town Halls announcing themes and initiatives for the new year. **Rarely has there been a more challenging time for crucial conversations about purpose and performance.**
If you are a manager responsible for retaining technology talent for your company's change initiatives and mission-critical operations, how do you sort this out?
You can't help but feel the pressure of your teams looking to you for signals about what they should be doing. If you don’t give them signals they will go and make decisions on their own - which often means losing key talent to other companies that seem to be saying all the right things.
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T Sept 1 - The Future of Talent and Learning - John Vandivier Interview, plus: special segment on Annual Review season.
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-sept-1-the-future-of-labor-and-learning-john-vandivir-interview/
Last updated: 2023-11-02T23:27:30.000Z
*Special Labor Day Weekend Edition*
*🔊* [Listen to this interview on the S3T Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org)
This week I had the chance to talk with John Vandivier about the future of work and learning. The written transcript is below and you can listen to the interview on the S3T Podcast.
This interview is must read/must listen material for:
- Talent Leaders who need to understand how the talent market and the learning markets are evolving (and in some ways merging)
- Education Leaders who are committed to empowering learners of all ages
- Individuals who are planning their learning journeys and careers.
In addition, a special briefing for Paying Members focuses on the communication, signaling and perspective-taking that is critical for this year's Annual Review Season. (See **Signaling and perspective taking** segment at end of this edition).
---
**Interview Transcript**
RP: Happy Friday everyone and welcome to a special Labor Day edition of S3T. Today I am so excited to be able to talk about the future of work and learning with John Vandivier the founder of Ladderly.io. John is an alumnus of the Innovation Garage who started off as an economic policy wonk, and then became a software engineer. Shifting from economic policy to technology was eye-opening for John. It led him to launch Ladderly.io which focuses on helping people find financial security by elevating their technology skills. Welcome, John, say hi to everyone!
JV: Hello, all. As Ralph mentioned, my name is John. I have a PhD in economics and I also have about ten years of experience working as a software engineer for companies you've heard of, like Amazon and Capital One. I had the great pleasure of working with Ralph in the Innovation Garage, and I'm very glad to be here to discuss an issue today that is of personal interest to me. And I also think it's socially important.
RP: Agree 100%. Helping people get into careers that give them greater financial security. Tell us a little bit about what you’re working on these days.
JV: My primary occupation these days is working as a software engineer for an interesting fintech called Upstart. On the side, I'm really interested in teaching people to learn to code. I'm a self-taught programmer, I don't have a background in computer science, rather it's in economics as we'll discuss. The career change changed my quality of life for the better and I want to share that with other people.
RP: We may have similar experiences - I literally stumbled into technology in the early 90's right when everything was about to explode, and it made a huge difference in my career and quality of life. I think its so commendable that you want to help others get on this path. Are there some approaches that you find are most effective?
JV: I do this in three main ways: First is through social media. I have over 22,000 followers on TikTok. Second is through open source contributions and third is through maintenance of a website and associated community Ladderly.io. This website is open source, there's a Discord and a community you can get involved. The website promotes a checklist with steps starting from scratch to help interested individuals learn to code and land a programming role.
RP: Excellent - John if I remember, your research thesis focused on the evolving value proposition for higher education - how would you summarize the challenge that educators and learners face in the 21st Century?
JV: We've seen a lot of changes since the year 2000 so online education is now commonplace. The MOOC era in the 2010's initially flopped, now they've somewhat improved, so we have better practices but even still the top tier MOOCs have a graduation rate of something like 25%. So this is a different educational model compared to the traditional university - you wouldn't want a university with 25% graduation - and yet this model makes sense for some learners. Some learners don't have an interest in obtaining a certificate. They may only want to cover a module.
RP: Yeah...MOOCs...for anyone who's not familiar, MOOC stands for Massive Online Open Course - just refers to a free online course anyone can sign up for. And yeah, especially since Covid, it feels like there's this uneasy coexistence between traditional and alternative education.
JV: Traditional and alternative educators alike are seeking to fulfill a demand on the part of their students, and we know that students attend both of these institutional types for essentially the same reason which is to improve their labor market prospects: to get a job, to get a promotion, to get a raise, acquire new skills or something similar. Educators then are naturally concerned with employer relations, job placement, career services this sort of thing.
RP: So what made you select the value proposition of education as your focus? Was there some experience you had or something that led you to question the value of higher education?
JV: So I chose to focus on an analysis of the returns to alternative post-secondary credentials because of my lived experience - not because of an initial question on the value of higher education although that did come later. Again I'm a self-taught programmer and I was able to break into the tech industry and land a software development role on the basis of some skill certifications as well as a portfolio of work, social networking, and a few other tools and tricks.
RP: But you were previously in economic policy I thought?
JV: I had previously initiated a Ph.D. in economics in an attempt to influence policy which was my previous life so to speak. So, prior to software engineering, I was Director of Research at a Political Consultancy and I wanted to actually influence policy inside the Beltway. I had obtained undergraduate credentials with a Master's in Public Policy with an emphasis in Fiscal Policy. This plus a couple of years of experience was considered *insufficient* to weigh in on actual bill-writing, so that was the initial motivation for the Ph.D. While in the Ph.D. I decided I was not interested in pursuing a further career in politics and I sort of salvaged it to pivot to focus on the economics of these alternative credentials with a particular lens toward tech, as I had just experienced that in my personal career.
RP: In your research was there an aha moment that you had...like, oh wow, this changes everything! Or was it more of a gradual confirmation of things you already suspected?
JV: So the writing of the dissertation was certainly gradual. It was not written overnight, there were many small eureka moments that accumulated and a good number of confirmations, but a substantial amount of discovery as well. And some surprises. Skillgap research was pretty cutting-edge at the time, so I contributed to that literature. My dissertation chair Brian Kaplan had also published what was at the time a cutting-edge work *The Case Against Education* championing the signaling model of education over the human capital model.
RP: Signaling - in other words, education credentials are a way of signaling to an employer "I've got what you need"...makes sense.
JV: And the signaling model is certainly compatible with what I had experienced, which was: employers suddenly felt that I was valuable as a job candidate when they saw my skill certifications - and also the portfolio.
The gradual aspect was largely a matter of discovering those particular skill gaps that I had encountered. Which of those were personal to me? Which of those were standard among employers, which were sort of accidental and which were reliable? I think that was a gradual process of discovery and surprise.
RP: Are schools able to keep up with the pace of change? Are they doing better today than they were?
JV: I think schools are keeping up with the pace of change and doing better than they were in the past. There are public and private universities. There are better and worse schools. Certainly, we can find some schools that are struggling. We also see the emergence of whole new program designs, hybrid programs, and partnership programs.
RP: Think you and I were both involved in the partnership program with the Innovation Garage and NCSU. And I think you're right, they're doing better at keeping up. I remember through the 90's onward, there were these waves of new tech innovation...I wrote some of the first working examples of video playing on PCs - people lost their minds. Then it was HTML, eCommerce, Java, Cloud, Mobile...but I remember having this moment where I realized, that universities were coming to tech companies to find out what to teach. There was this prestigious post-grad management school, the Japan America Institute of Management Science - they hired me to teach their post-grads eCommerce. On paper I wasn't qualified, but I was building systems and using skills that they recognized as the future. Was there a tipping point where this started to become more prevalent?
JV: You might put 2018 as an important marker here where accredited universities partnering with a coding boot camp, for instance, would be more common after 2018\. And some of this has to do with what we consider to be a school. So coding bootcamps themselves can be considered a school. Again, even if we restrict ourselves to traditionally accredited four year colleges. I think in this post 2018 era and with the addition of Covid, there is a new normal, a new acceptance of remote learning, hybridization and partnership with expert alternative educational providers. I see sort of an evolutionary step happening in the 2010's where many MOOCs failed, a few survived, and they survived by using new techniques that have now come into sort of widespread adoption. So in reaction to this story about university consulting with tech in the 90s, I think they're still doing that. And alternative education providers are also consulting with industry at the moment for individuals interested in learning to code.
RP: Any notable examples?
JV: The single best certificate that I'm aware of is the front-end certificate on Coursera, which is produced in collaboration with Meta and Meta has created many of the open-source tools used for front-end development. So who better to teach you how? Who better to design the curriculum than the employer? who also created the open source project?
📌
***Who better to design the curriculum than the employer?***
With universities and coding boot camps, we also see partnerships with industry. I think the motivation is a little bit different here. I think this motivation has to do with the incentive of the educational institution to have job placement and they maximize that job placement by aligning the curriculum with the needs of employers. And I think that this is a healthy, sustainable, fundamental reality of the production of education. So I don't see this so much as an accident of the 90s or the 2000 or the 20 tens. I think this is just a healthy process to maybe educational design on the market that is likely to sustain unless there's some sort of exogenous shock that renders it untenable for some reason.
RP13: Is education going to have to evolve its idea of a curriculum? Seems like a preplanned curriculum is always going to be vulnerable to relevance problems?
JV: On the relevance problem, I think you have a good point here, and I liken it to the problem of innovating a new technology and regulators necessarily lagging that. So you can't regulate something that hasn't been created yet, right? Similarly, it doesn't seem possible to design an educational curriculum that optimizes for the needs of employers when the employers haven't yet started demanding labor for the new thing. And so maybe what you want to do is move to a model of continuous just-in-time learning. Universities are not well adapted to just-in-time microlearning.
RP14: Very good point - S3T is actually functioning as a form of just-in-time learning for a set of skills that aren't often taught together. I think it relates to - sometimes there's this problem of what to focus on: My working relationships with universities allowed me to compare what students were learning vs what I was learning or what skillsets I was hiring for. One big difference that stood out to me was I guess I would call it relevant focus, like ..in the academic setting, they'll teach you this big range of things as if they were all equally important. But they're not. And the lens that I had was different ....like "in the real world, ok this and this, you better really know this, in fact you need to know this deeper than what they're teaching you...these other things you'll probably never use them. Now, there is something to be said for broad learning and I don't know if this amounts to any kind of existential threat to higher education.
🏫
***...maybe what you want to do is move to a model of continuous just-in-time learning. Universities are not well adapted to just-in-time microlearning.***
JV: I don't see this as an existential threat to the university. As long as there are federal subsidies subsidizing traditional education, many people will take advantage of that and then those people will graduate into the labor force. As long as the labor force is populated by individuals with college degrees, they will expect the status quo. They will expect new employees to at least meet their bar in their mind. And there's a sort of inertia that happens here.
I think the solution to this problem, if we're considering the university system to be the problem, would be employers actively measuring the productivity of their employees, correlating to those credentials, realizing that targeted micro-credentials just in time learning are satisfactory, the degree is no longer required - you can use alternative credentials. And once we normalize this over time, you will see a fade in demand for degrees on the part of employers. So I think if we want to reduce demand for degrees, it has to come from the employer side. I don't think we're going to see students dropping the degree while employers still want it, nor should we want that.
RP: Agree, I think some of what you're saying will be welcome news for for a lot of people listening who feel like you have to go through an awful lot of overhead and expense in order to get to a usable education - usable from a career standpoint.
JV: I certainly think that the average or median college is relatively inefficient and the system as a whole has room to improve. As a consumer, one of the things that you can do to address this is be selective about the college that you go to - make colleges compete with one another. Colleges compete on price and educational quality, of course, but also on the method of awarding credit. So WGU would be one example I would cite with a focus on competency-based education over credit hours. So demonstrating competency through examination portfolio and other means besides being sat in a chair.
Be selective about the field, of course, so prefer a STEM degree or a business degree. Also try to graduate early. The opportunity cost of not being employed is generally much higher than the out-of-pocket cost or the tuition or something like that. So try to get an internship while you're in school or just graduate early if that's an option.
RP: Are you familiar with the book BS Jobs by the late David Graber. One of the things he covers is the way education costs have been inflated as universities added very large numbers of administrative staff, so much so that the ratio of administrative staff to educators has actually changed.
JV: Your point about administrative bloat is well taken. I guess the question becomes what is society to do about this? We could do something as drastic as eliminating the Department of Education. Remit accreditation back to the market from whence it came. I'm pessimistic that drastic actions like these are feasible or realistic, and I don't know how important they are at the individual level for individual decision-making. I would reiterate some of those individual moves that I mentioned. Being choosy with your school and your field. Seeking to graduate early, credit by examination, credit by portfolio and so on.
RP: A new phrase emerged recently - have you heard about this? - The "Paper Ceiling" which refers to barriers faced by people who do not have college degrees but who in reality are probably qualified to do the job.
JV: So the Paper Ceiling is real and unfortunate. Let me give a couple strategies that might make this a cup-half-full situation. Walmart today and other Guild education partners are able to attend college for $1 a day. I worked at Walmart years ago and this was not available at that point in time. Similarly, if you are able to get some job, maybe even a programming job without a degree, you can leverage an employer benefit and potentially go to college for free or nearly free.
One of the main ways that a college degree becomes a bad return on investment is if you drop out, and being in a situation where you study while you work does have a significant impact to your propensity to drop out as well as negative academic performance.
So it's not general advice for everyone, but if you can swing it, the employer subsidy for education can allow some students to achieve a really high cash-on-cash return to their degree. And further, if you obtain a degree while you're already employed, it's common to use this as performance review material so you can get an additional benefit that will accelerate your career. You may have a bit of a lagged start, but when you hit this paper ceiling, you can in some ways turn it into an advantage.
This effect is not constrained to the undergraduate level. You may find that in order to obtain a management role or after you obtain that entry-level management role to progress further, you need a graduate degree and similar effects obtained here where the employer benefit can cause a master's degree to have a really high return. And if you can get your employer to agree ahead of time to use this for the purpose of performance review, you can get a double benefit out of it.
Do be careful here. Many graduate degrees have a low and - with a surprising frequency - even a negative return on investment. A lot of this has to do with the field. If your employer encourages you to pursue a particular degree ahead of time, you're not likely to face this problem. But do be careful.
RP: Good advice. Let's switch gears - I want to get your thoughts on the following: There's a lot of negative noise right now in the workplace about the future of work and learning. "AI is going to steal your job." There are memes on LinkedIn "In 5 years there will be no programmers!" How do you think about this?
JV: I love the AI question. Returning to Ladderly.io for a moment, I recently implemented a chatbot that helps people learn to code and in my day job I frequently use code assistants like GitHub Copilot that are based on AI, Other language models and generative AI tools. So I see AI as a productivity enhancer. It's not technically possible for AI to replace many of these roles.
One of the memes that I saw was a construction building. This was in physical space in the real world and construction buildings - while they're in progress - it's common to put a sign up. And this sign was a meme and it said something to the effect of "GPT finished this building."
And the joke is that it's not technically possible for a software program to build a physical building. What's more surprising to some is that the AI tools we have today essentially can't build programs either. The most advanced tools we have at the moment are only able to produce toy projects, and these toy projects are not self-hosted, they're not accessible by the public.
So if you want to build a website, engineers still need to do work to make that website accessible to end users. The value in these tools today to engineers is accelerating their work, not replacing their work.
RP: What would you say to someone who says, "Yeah but 5 years from now...its going to get better and better."
JV: Two responses to that: One, is who is going to make it better? It's going to be engineers. So this is just more evidence that there is demand for engineers. And second, is we'll cross that bridge in five years.
If the AI tools are anything like what they are today, they will still need to be directed by human users. These people may or may not be called software engineers. They may be called prompt engineers. In any case, the skills and experience you gain today will be substantially reused.
RP: That's reassuring. So do you have recommendations for young people - and their parents - who are taking all of this in, and at the same time thinking about college. What kind of advice would you have for people who are in this position of deciding how to enable a financially secure career and future?
JV: Put yourself in the shoes of a future employer. Would you rather hire a new grad or would you rather hire someone with five years of experience coding along with AI and now just using AI without any code at all?
🎯
***"I think there's a compelling argument to be made that when we get to a no-code future, the engineering work will be all the more interesting."***
In many ways, that future is appealing rather than threatening, because I would get to forget about syntax details, particular keywords and function names, and I would get to focus on the higher-level ideas and direct the large language model to take care of those less important lower-level details.
So I think there's a compelling argument to be made that when we get to a no-code future, the engineering work will be all the more interesting.
RP: Describe what you think learning will be like 10 years from now? More of the same? or something different?
JV: So my prediction for ten years from now is that the singularity will *not* have occurred. I think it will be rather boring compared to that, although it's hard to make a prediction so far out with much confidence. I expect the subsidies to continue and the attendance to remain high. I think humans writing JavaScript with their own hands or typing it anyway will still be common.
RP: What about the economic picture?
I do think the economy will have rebounded compared to what it is today. And with that, new highs in labor demand in tech, employers bidding for talent, including a willingness to hire those with a non-traditional background, a caveat here would be that ten years is such a large time frame that the economy may have rebounded and become ruined again. So these effects may be transient.
RP: Final question...if a change leader is thinking about a new initiative, new learning program, or maybe a new startup...what would you advise them to explore?
JV: A good question about the change leader. A lot of this depends on who the change leader is. Is this change leader already a provider of education? Is this a major employer? Is this a smaller but innovative employer? I think the solution is to continue on the market trajectory. But the way that you integrate that will vary depending on where you're starting from. So if you're a smaller, innovative employer, you might want to grow an association or network with other larger employers. If you're an educational provider, you need to partner with a large employer. If you're already a large employer, you could partner with an educational provider or create a branch of your organization responsible for internal training and then even external training. I expect in those ways, a change leader could scale the market.
RP: What if you want to fundamentally alter the market?
JV: If the change leader wants to actually alter the structure of the market, I think that change leader needs to also be a market leader. And so here I would imagine a scenario where Amazon or Google or Microsoft or some other large employer that already has an educational wing and already provides external training and certifications, they want to take things a step further, I think the opportunity here is for these companies to hire cheap and train up.
These organizations today typically want to hire seniors. They want to hire really smart, really high-talent people and pay them a bunch of money. I think there's a large missed opportunity for profit for these companies and also for social welfare to be had in the form of hiring lower-productivity workers and then either improving the productivity of those workers through training or allowing those workers to remain at a stable, low level of productivity and simply giving them assignments that net out a profit anyway.
RP: I think there's something to this, that we could dig into some other time. I think there is a lot of work that is very necessary, high-value work that doesn't get done because it doesn't measure well in whatever OKRs and dashboards happen to be in fashion with the current corporate status quo. It's work that hasn't been given its proper valuation because of the overly narrow short-sightedness and ignorance of the dominant market players. An employment approach that ensures this work gets done could be game-changing. Anyway, love your idea - what do you think it takes to get someone to embrace this?
JV: So I think these large tech firms typically only take on projects that are expected to be highly lucrative. This is not a profit-maximizing project selection strategy according to standard price theory. Instead, firms should take on projects as long as they're profitable. That is, firms should be willing to fund more projects until the marginal cost of a project equals its marginal benefit. So if there are less lucrative projects on the table and in my experience, there always are, firms should be willing to execute those projects. And if the resources on hand are too expensive, the option of picking up some cheaper resources should be taken more seriously instead of just throwing the project out.
RP: Wow, that is some fascinating food for thought. Yeah I think we're on the verge of starting a whole new thread there. John, thank you again for sharing your thoughts, where can people follow your work or connect with you?
JV: Thank you so much for having me, Ralph. It was great to speak with you. If people want to get in contact, check out my YouTube channel Programming with John. (That's *not* Coding with John. That's another person). So Programming with John or ladderly.io, that's spelled just like "you're climbing the corporate ladder." And then the final option would be TikTok or Twitter, where my handle is @JohnVandivir.
---
### A post-interview note:
I hope you've enjoyed this conversation and taken away some key insights you can use in your work and planning. I would like to make it clear that at this point in time, I personally am encouraging my own children and family to attend and graduate from college. I realize that the tools and processes of education are changing and that its important for universities, corporations and government agencies alike to partner, adapt and evolve together, in order to enable healthy financially secure communities. I hope this conversation surfaces some provocative and actionable ideas for how to do just that.
Cheers,
Ralph Perrine
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial advice. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed.*
---
## Signaling and perspective taking during Annual Review Season: Talent Strategy Briefing for Paid Members
Annual review season is just around the corner with its crucial conversations when managers walk the delicate balance between the company's budget constraints vs. its needs for highly engaged employees. This year may be more challenging than usual - especially for companies that rely on technical talent.
Tech talent today is bombarded with confusing messages about where technology is headed and what will happen to their jobs. If you are a manager responsible for retaining technology talent for your company’s mission-critical product development and service operations, you want to be able to think and communicate clearly on these matters with your teams.
If you are feeling the pressure, you are not alone. Managers and HR teams across the economy are seeking clarity on exactly how to retain and empower their key talent in this time of economic and technological transition.
### It’s not just what you say - it’s what you signal
*(Upgrade to paid membership to keep reading)*
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T Aug 25: S3T turns 2!, Change Leadership Starter Kit, BRICS, CBDC, Palau, 4 Guardrails for GenAI in Healthcare, PBMs, Weeds, Necrofauna
URL: https://www.s3t.org/aug-25/
Last updated: 2023-08-25T05:28:49.000Z
---
*🔊* [Listen to this newsletter on the S3T Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org)
**Welcome to the Aug 25 2nd Anniversary Edition of the weekly S3T Newsletter:**
- **S3T Turns 2!!! -** Yes, the very first edition of S3T was published August 21, 2021\. Reflecting back on the journey so far, and what's next for the S3T Community.
- **Change Leadership Skills:** A starting point planner for driving your first change leadership effort. Feels scary, but you can do it.
- **Macroeconomics:** Central Bank Digital Currency projects world wide, BRICS outlook, Sources of inflation in healthcare
- **Nature Notes:** Rethinking Weeds and Necrofauna
- **For Paying Members:** 4 Guardrails for GenAI in Healthcare, plus Industry Brief: Pharmacy Benefits Managers under increased scrutiny.
---
## S3T Turns 2!: Reflecting back on the first two years
The cover of the first edition of S3T
**Hard to believe** it's been two years this week since the very [first edition of S3T](https://www.s3t.org/s3t-1-mavericks-mainstreamers-moths-and-manta-rays-crypto-volatility-mid-year-review-inflation-math-based-trust-covid-risk-calc/) was published on August 21, 2021\. This was the first of several pilot editions published in the last half of 2021\.
In January of 2022, the regular weekly edition was launched. Since then we've launched a paid membership and the S3T Podcast. I've deeply appreciated and learned so much from my interaction with S3T subscribers and members, and am so excited about the continued evolution of S3T. Stay tuned for some great new updates. Thank you again for reading and sharing and supporting S3T.
Why S3T Matters: Today, there are more complex issues, more people with needs, and more is at stake than perhaps ever before in history. It means **all of us have the opportunity to learn and continuously improve our change leadership skills and perspectives**:
- how to notice where change is needed,
- how to drive thoughtful change and innovation, including how to evaluate and influence the changes underway
- how to achieve and sustain better outcomes,
- how teach others to also succeed at change leadership.
Change leadership is the most critical skill of the 21st century. The size or scope of the change is not what's important. What's important is the ability to make a change happen - to lead change well. That's why I'm so passionate about the mission of S3T to equip and inform change leaders, and it is also why every edition of S3T is designed to help you:
- learn and sharpen key change leadership skills
- deepen your understanding and insights on key changes happening in emerging tech and the economy
- stay on top of key shifts and trends that impact your communities, customers and stakeholders.
Thank you again! I appreciate so much the support and attention you give to S3T every week, and look forward to continuing our journey - learning and having an impact - together.
---
## **Change Leadership Basics: a starter kit for your first attempt**
One of the core tenets of S3T is that everyone can be, and needs to be a change leader. But perhaps you feel that you've never had any experience leading a change, or maybe you know someone who has the potential to be a change leader but needs some encouragement to help them build their confidence and get started.
I want to share how simple it is for you to get started as a change leader. **So here is a simple planner with 5 habits that will help you start driving your first change.**
### **Habit #1: Notice**
Without judgments or conclusions, just notice - start to be aware of what it is that prompts you to want to change something.
- What kinds of things catch your attention and bother you?
- What kinds of improvements do you think could be made? Are these changes things that are in your power to change, or do you need to engage others to help?
- Could 1 person do it? Or would it take a lot of people and work? Or could 1 person help others drive the change? Could you help start the process of getting people more aware of the need for change?
### **Habit #2:** Journal
Write down your observations and thoughts about what you notice (as recommended above), and what you think should be done. Do you see a better *outcome* that is possible? Write it down. Do you see a better *process* or a better *solution* that is needed, in order to enable that better outcome? Write it down. Keeping a journal of what you are seeing and learning can provide 3 benefits over time:
- It will help you sharpen your thinking and ideas. As you re-read and reflect you'll start to understand the change leadership opportunity better.
- It starts to give you something tangible you can share with others (and get their help refining it).
- It will also let you go back and retrace your learning and leadership journey over time. This can be instructive and inspiring not only for you but for others.
### **Habit #3: Connect**
- Connect with people - who else is concerned about this issue or opportunity?
- Connect with projects - what kind of companies, non-profits or other organizations might already be focusing on this?
- Connect with previous learning or work - what papers or blog posts have been written on this topic? [Arxiv](https://arxiv.org/?ref=s3t.org) and [Litmaps](https://www.litmaps.com/?ref=s3t.org) can help you locate them. [ChatPDF](https://www.chatpdf.com/?ref=s3t.org) can help you quickly query the contents of a specific research paper (use with care: always double-check outputs for accuracy).
### **Habit #4: Plan a path forward**
- Get with a few other committed individuals and make a plan together.
- Find a mentor or coach who is willing to help you on your learning journey.
- Write out what you believe needs to happen over a given timeline. Write an end outcome and then work backward through the steps that need to happen to get to the desired outcome.
Use the resources in the change leadership series (provide a link to the learning path) to continue your learning.
### **Habit #5:** Commit Daily
Committing to being a change leader, starts you on a journey of profound personal and professional growth. You'll learn new ways of seeing, communicating, and working. When you lock in on a change that you want to make happen, whether that change is at a personal, team, or industry level, you're tapping into an inner reservoir of determination, vision, and resilience.
You'll need it. The road will not be easy, and you may sometimes doubt whether it's worth it. But change leadership is forged in the crucible of challenges. When you lead thoughtful change, not only do you create brighter more secure futures for others, but you also discover the depth of your own strength and purpose.
---
Photo by [Rene Paulesich](https://unsplash.com/@renehiko?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Macro Economics
###
### Republic of Palau Stablecoin
The Republic of Palau has [launched a US Dollar backed stablecoin in partnership with Ripple](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20230726969255/en/Republic-of-Palau-Launches-US-Dollar-backed-Palau-Stablecoin-in-the-Next-Phase-of-Collaboration-with-Ripple-on-the-XRP-Ledger?ref=s3t.org) a 10-year-old carbon-neutral blockchain. The stablecoin leverages the [Ripple Central Bank Digital Currency Platform](https://ripple.com/ripple-press/ripple-launches-cbdc-platform-for-the-development-of-cbdcs-and-stablecoins/?ref=s3t.org) \- Ripple's end-to-end solution that allows central banks to issue their own central bank digital currency.
### Central Bank Digital Currencies
Mastercard is launching a [Central Bank Digital Currencies Partner Program](https://www.mastercard.com/news/perspectives/2023/cbdcs-trust-and-the-evolution-of-money/?ref=s3t.org) that it says will be focused on "greater understanding of the benefits and limitations of CDBCs and how to implement them in a way that is safe, seamless and useful." The initial set of partners includes [Ripple](https://ripple.com/?c1=GAW%5FSE%5FNW&source=US%5FBRND&cr2=search%5F%5F-%5F%5Fus%5F%5F-%5F%5Fbrand--general%5F%5F-%5F%5Fexm&kw=ripple%5Fexm&cr5=611959309622&cr7=c&utm%5Fsource=GAW%5FSE%5FNW%5FUS%5FBRND&utm%5Fmedium=cpc&utm%5Fcampaign=search%5F%5F-%5F%5Fus%5F%5F-%5F%5Fbrand--general%5F%5F-%5F%5Fexm&gclid=CjwKCAjwloynBhBbEiwAGY25dFBdvZE0BOn1KoKDlfeD5QvctSbR0jLY9SrGcmpzK7VWBK8bAtDD9xoCmAAQAvD%5FBwE) and [Consensys](https://consensys.io/?ref=s3t.org).
### Evolution of International Finance
[90% of countries are exploring or implementing Central Bank Digital Currencies](https://ripple.com/ripple-press/ripple-launches-cbdc-platform-for-the-development-of-cbdcs-and-stablecoins/?ref=s3t.org) in hopes of optimizing cross-border payments. In addition, some believe that [CBDCs can bring social benefits](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2023/03/18/Central-Bank-Digital-Currency-and-Financial-Inclusion-531104?ref=s3t.org): increasing financial inclusion and bringing banking services to unbanked communities. Others, however, worry that [CBDCs could pose serious risks](https://www.coindesk.com/consensus-magazine/2023/06/05/privacy-concerns-dominate-cbdc-discussion-at-consensus-2023/?ref=s3t.org) to individual privacy and human rights.
For the latest snapshot of Digital Currency projects around the world, see the Central Bank Digital Currency Tracker here:
[Central Bank Digital Currency TrackerOur flagship Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) Tracker takes you inside the rapid evolution of money all over the world. The interactive database now features 130 countries— triple the number of countries we first identified as being active in CBDC development in 2020.Atlantic Council](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/cbdctracker/?params=3f;7;7&country=&selected=&ref=s3t.org)
### BRIC Summit 2023
This week the BRICS trade organization (Brazil Russia India China South Africa) gathered for their summit in South Africa under the watchful eyes of the international press. Some seem to be rooting for BRIC nations to [dethrone the dollar (Le Monde)](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2023/08/22/the-brics-countries-aim-to-knock-the-dollar-off-its-throne%5F6102645%5F19.html?ref=s3t.org) while others recognize [the road to that outcome would be tricky](https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2023/8/22/can-brics-create-a-new-world-order?ref=s3t.org).
As noted previously in S3T, the BRICS nations may not have the alignment and shared interests necessary to create a new global trade and finance powerhouse. (See [this 2015 WEF analysis](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/07/5-factors-limiting-the-impact-of-the-brics-nations/?ref=s3t.org), and [this more recent piece](https://obaninternational.com/blog/whatever-happened-to-the-bric-countries/?ref=s3t.org)).
Complicating matters, China, the ostensible lead financier in this group, is wrestling with [a complex set of internal economic issues](https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/14/economy/china-economy-july-slowdown-intl-hnk/index.html?ref=s3t.org), including an excessively high youth unemployment rate of 21% (see below). To illustrate the severity, the [US Youth Unemployment Rate for the same age group is 8%](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS14024887?ref=s3t.org) (nothing to be proud of, to be clear).
[](https://www.statista.com/chart/30631/unemployment-of-16-24-and-25-59-in-china/?ref=s3t.org)
(Find more great infographics at [Statista](https://www.statista.com/chartoftheday/?ref=s3t.org))
---
Photo by [Bernd M. Schell](https://unsplash.com/@bmschell?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### Also in South Africa: Change leadership in action
As shared in this interview about [Aubrey Strobel's](https://www.theaubservation.com/?ref=s3t.org) new short film, [a surfing school in South Africa did a Bitcoin fundraiser and used the proceeds to rebuild their facility](https://www.theblock.co/post/246061/aubrey-strobel-this-south-african-community-is-embracing-bitcoin-and-surfing?ref=s3t.org). The film also covers the local grassroots efforts to make surfing more diverse and inclusive, as well as the emerging use of **Bitcoin as a financial building block in disadvantaged South African communities who lack access to basic banking and equity.** Inspiring example of the unnoticed good work happening in communities around the world.
---
Photo by [Myriam Zilles](https://unsplash.com/@myriamzilles?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### Data Points: Sources of Inflation in Healthcare
As noted in previous editions of S3T, individuals and families are impacted by forms of inflation not adequately measured by the [Consumer Price Index (CPI)](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/overview.htm?ref=s3t.org) and other standard measures of inflation. This kind of inflation was impacting patients and communities long before the 2021-2022 price spikes caused by the pandemic.
This section shares a few recent data points about how healthcare costs have been inflated by *corporate actions*, rather than by general economic factors such as interest rates and worker salaries.
- Hospitals may mark up drugs significantly - 500% or more - [per this Pharma news outlet](https://www.pharmaceuticalcommerce.com/view/report-hospitals-mark-up-medication-prices-by-500-?ref=s3t.org). This is not a new story (see this [2017 story on the same theme](https://www.drugchannels.net/2017/04/latest-data-show-that-hospitals-are.html?ref=s3t.org)).
- An AARP Report shows that [key drugs have tripled in price](https://www.aarp.org/politics-society/advocacy/info-2023/medicare-drug-prices-triple.html?ref=s3t.org) since coming on the market - in defiance of the expectation that production costs usually decrease as supply chain efficiencies take effect. The data also shows that the [price increases for the most needed drugs greatly exceeds annual rate of inflation](https://www.aarp.org/pri/topics/health/prescription-drugs/prices-top-medicare-part-d-drugs-tripled-since-entering-market/?ref=s3t.org). Again this pre-dates the post-pandemic inflation cycle.
- **Paying Members can access additional content on PBMs and how they are contributing to inflated healthcare costs,** in spite of the fact that they were supposed to help control drug costs. (See section below titled "For Paying Members")
---
## 🐟️ Sensible Ideas for Summer: Pink Snapper on the Grill
Grilled Pink Snapper
Clean the fish and make cuts in it (so it can soak in the flavors and cook more evenly). Then coat the fish with Olive Oil & Salted Butter laced with walnuts and Provence Herbs, rock salt and pepper. Stuff with Fennel Sprigs. Cook on grill, turning carefully and re-applying the Olive Oil / Butter coating. When done, sprinkle with lemon, let it rest on a large bed of fennel with lemon slices. You probably can't eat this by yourself, so invite your crew over.
---
Photo by [Jason Long](https://unsplash.com/@jasonlong?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## 💮️ Nature Notes: Rethinking Weeds and Necrofauna
###
Plant Prejudice
Plant blindness - the inability to recognize and appreciate plants - is what some are calling the all too common and unfounded prejudice against native wildflowers. We call them "weeds" but [as this piece notes](https://www.inverse.com/science/weeds-and-pollination?ref=s3t.org), these native plants including poison ivy are vital to pollinator survival.
### *Necrofauna: the good, the bad and the inevitable?*
[Great listen on the risks and rewards of Necrofauna](https://audio.loe.org/shows/segments.html?programID=17-P13-00041&segmentID=5&ref=s3t.org) \- species brought back from extinction. The tools used for de-extinction can also be used to enable gene editing systems that detect and disable deadly diseases before they infect an animal. One example cited: Harvard's woolly mammoth resurrection project team is now helping to create a CRISPR-based system to save elephants from EEHV a deadly herpes virus currently impacting captive and wild elephant populations.
---
## For Paying Members: Strategy and Tactics
**Two special segments for Paying Members:**
- **PBM Insights and Talking Points for Decision makers:** Navigating the industry shift as Pharmacy Benefits Managers (PBMs) come under increasing scrutiny.
- **4 Policy Guardrails for GenAI in Healthcare.** As the healthcare industry explores GenAI, healthcare leaders and innovators can manage risk and increase their chances of better outcomes via 4 critical guardrails.
[Sign up today for your paid membership and get a 14-day free trial!](https://www.s3t.org/14-day-free-trial)
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T August 18: Regulatory Impact Assessments, AI and vulnerable groups, Argentina, Visa+crypto, Cap preservation, GenAI skills, Honeycreepers...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/august-18-2/
Last updated: 2023-08-18T05:28:27.000Z
*You made it to Friday! Welcome to new members! Here's the perfect way to cap off your week's accomplishments with some just-in-time learning to position you for success in the week ahead.*
*🔊* [Listen to this newsletter on the S3T Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org)
****In this edition of the weekly S3T Newsletter:**
- **Change Leadership Skills:** How the Regulatory Impact Assessment framework can help you work with regulators and governance teams to introduce new innovations.
- **Macroeconomics:** Bitcoin in high inflation economies and the problem with status quo monetary systems. Healthcare economics. .
- **Emerging Tech:** Deeper perspectives on the risks of AI; how Visa hopes to make crypto payments easier.
- **Nature Notes:** Tracking down one of the last of the Hawaiian Honeycreepers.
- **For Paying Members:** Deeper Dive on Moral Hazard; Plus: Resources for building your GenAI skills
---
## Change Leadership Skills: Learning how to use a Regulatory Impact Assessment
###
*Change leaders who are working in entrepreneurial or government affairs roles will find this especially helpful.*
### Introducing a new change or innovation that impacts regulations can be tricky
Financial innovation, healthcare innovation, policy changes - like letting people remain in their wheelchairs when they fly...all of these are examples of changes that require you to work with regulators and governance stakeholders.
### Here's how to make it more doable
Updating regulations is a difficult complex undertaking, but there are tools and frameworks that change leaders can use to make it more doable.
One key approach is the **Regulatory Impact Assessment (RIA)**. The OECD offers a [best practices framework and learning page here](https://www.s3t.org/r/d75734b1?m=d9ccfe01-4289-46c4-8d88-2c3a96a15f68).
RIAs offer a structured approach for assessing:
- How current regulations might be having negative impacts
- How proposed regulations might perform
- How current regulations may need to change as new technologies or processes are adopted by industries or communities
Also: If you are an entrepreneur or leader in a small to mid-sized business (often referred to as SMEs), this [Annex to the RIA framework ](https://www.s3t.org/r/97205102?m=d9ccfe01-4289-46c4-8d88-2c3a96a15f68)will help you understand what kind of interaction to expect and ask for when you are working with regulators.
*This will give you a credible structured approach for interacting with regulators. Share this with someone you know who is driving a key industry change.*
---
## Macro Economics
###
Bitcoin in high-inflation economies
In Argentina, a [pro-bitcoin anti-central bank candidate has won the presidential primary](https://cryptoslate.com/pro-btc-candidate-triumph-drives-bitcoin-to-historic-high-against-argentinian-peso/?ref=s3t.org) ahead of a general election in November. The chart below from Kaiko Research may help explain why:
> 🤔📈[#Bitcoin](https://twitter.com/hashtag/Bitcoin?src=hash&ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org)’s value against the three weakest emerging markets currencies this year - the ARS, TRY and the RUB - has soared between 140% and 240% YTD.
>
> 👉Notably, its price in ARS just hit an all-time high! [pic.twitter.com/G97nswb22F](https://t.co/G97nswb22F?ref=s3t.org)
>
> — Kaiko (@KaikoData) [August 14, 2023](https://twitter.com/KaikoData/status/1690997226615533568?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org)
**In Argentina and other nations with high rates of inflation, [Bitcoin is seen as a safer store of value](https://cryptoslate.com/crypto-ownership-in-turkey-argentina-and-philippines-surges-as-inflation-skyrockets/?ref=s3t.org).**
### Context: the problem with status quo monetary systems
For context, Nick Carter's 2019 essay *[The Cat Is Out Of The Bag](https://medium.com/the-bitcoin-times/the-cat-is-out-of-the-bag-fc1344c46bc1?ref=s3t.org)* is worth revisiting (in spite of its edgy tone) because it lists the primary grievances against the status quo monetary systems of *most* nations today. Some colorful highlights:
- *"The wealth of political elites derives primarily from privileged access to the monetary spigot."*
- *"And no, cheap financing didn’t help the middle and lower class get a foothold in property… because property values were horrendously inflated in the first place! Property, treated as a store of value for the rich, is precisely where so many of the Fed’s newly-minted dollars settled."*
- *"Why has the cost of higher education and healthcare outpaced inflation by orders of magnitude? Why is the CPI a sad, pathetic joke? Do consumer goods account for most of your expenditures, or does rent, healthcare, and education?"*
While some of us may not have direct experience with these grievances but they do reflect the lived experiences of people around the world, including areas in the US, and can help explain the political events in countries like Argentina.
For a more data-driven deep dive into these foundational issues, see Thomas Piketty's *Capital in the 21st Century* ([HBR summary here](https://hbr.org/2014/04/pikettys-capital-in-a-lot-less-than-696-pages?ref=s3t.org), available at most libraries and [thrift stores](https://www.googleadservices.com/pagead/aclk?sa=L&ai=DChcSEwj%5F4uz5kOSAAxWBhcgKHYF3DMsYABAPGgJxdQ&gclid=CjwKCAjwivemBhBhEiwAJxNWN4J3a6cGoXH9CchCHlLo18CzHJZV8VEmULVGSLpqCRUHSu29JWLFzhoCs7kQAvD%5FBwE&ohost=www.google.com&cid=CAESbOD2slaU35f3EDwqHUyIX0kP5jN26zlvaDvThBNETdteih-NYQc87uIxnsi1OWxcGYNYpDOpffSGiPo3lgyc5lsk5ab8fn1FoJ62dgH1tFGQBXuDcoKOWAA2StPXhDAjCgZwcGKKss3cnkW1GQ&sig=AOD64%5F1elZrXCkkf8VLJ5OYEg2nP0pzCdQ&ctype=5&q=&ved=2ahUKEwjyg-P5kOSAAxXmD1kFHVtiDb0Q9aACKAB6BAgHEBk&adurl=&ref=s3t.org)).
### Healthcare Economics: Prior Authorization
This fall [UnitedHealth plans to reduce its Prior Authorizations by 20%](https://www.axios.com/2023/08/10/unitedhealth-prior-authorization-roll-back?ref=s3t.org), as payers across the board reconsider the value of this long-standing practice.
- Prior Authorization - requiring doctors to get authorization from the health insurance company prior to performing certain kinds of treatments - has been a controversial practice some say delays necessary care, harms patients, and saddles doctors with [excess paperwork and staff overhead](https://www.mgma.com/getmedia/099f8c3b-1e4b-4a36-ac2e-18c9215eb2dc/2022%5FMGMA-Regulatory-Burden-Report-FINAL.pdf.aspx?ext=.pdf&ref=s3t.org) (PDF).
- Not a surprise: Industry insiders have long anticipated that the increasing scrutiny and regulation of prior authorization ([here](https://www.benefitspro.com/2023/03/31/unitedhealthcare-cigna-aetna-revamping-prior-authorization-ahead-of-cms-rule/?slreturn=20230717081146&ref=s3t.org) and [here](https://www.axios.com/2023/07/28/congress-dips-back-into-prior-authorization-fight?ref=s3t.org)) would reduce or eliminate the financial benefits that traditional health insurers gain via prior authorization measures.
**Paying Members: deeper dive on *Moral Hazard*** \- [healthcare's entanglement with the moral hazard logic of traditional insurance](https://www.s3t.org/moral-hazard/) helps explain the industry's long reliance on *capital preservation mechanisms* like prior authorization and can help point the way to designing a better model.
---
## Emerging Tech
###
### AI and Vulnerable Populations
Rolling Stone just [released an excellent read about 5 female tech leaders](https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-features/women-warnings-ai-danger-risk-before-chatgpt-1234804367/?ref=s3t.org) with vital insights on AI's impact, who unfortunately have not been listened to. One thing that stood out to me was **how vulnerable populations have been impacted**:
- Providing cheap labor powering AI training (one example noted workers in Kenya were [underpaid and traumatized](https://www.bigtechnology.com/p/he-helped-train-chatgpt-it-traumatized?ref=s3t.org) by illicit content they had to view when training models).
- Mischaracterized, harmed by bias from poorly trained AI models (and historical data that encapsulated bias behaviors).
- Under-represented (also likely due to bias encapsulated in historical data).
**Why this matters:** Important context for any change leaders concerned about the ethical use of AI. Many companies are eager to use GenAI ...but leaders will want to consider *what we don't yet know or understand about how this technology is made and used.*
To borrow an old analogy from the textiles industry: some of you remember back when retail clothing brands rushed to leverage overseas manufacturing to improve their margins. Then the public discovered the ugly reality of sweatshops. Those brands are forever stained by the fact of their own greed and carelessness.
In the case of AI, expect ugly revelations to continue to come to light. As noted previously in S3T, a cross-disciplinary approach to governance is the best bet for ensuring the ethical use of AI that brings benefits and prevents harm.
### GenAI and Jobs
**But it's only been 8 months:** Alex Kantrowitz issues a (perhaps early) [assertion that GenAI isn't destroying jobs](https://www.bigtechnology.com/p/wait-chatgpt-didnt-take-my-job?ref=s3t.org) and why some early indicators suggest AI tools generate the need for more human supervisors.
### Visa making crypto transactions easier
Ever wanted to make a crypto transaction but couldn't because you needed ETH to pay for gas fees? *Visa hopes to eliminate that buzzkill once and for all.*
Visa is testing an approach that would let you **pay gas fees with your Visa card rather than having to hold ETH**. It's brilliant: for a sizable user population, this would make Visa an indispensable element of crypto transactions. [See their detailed paper here](https://usa.visa.com/solutions/crypto/paying-blockchain-gas-fees-with-card.html?ref=s3t.org).
**Bigger Trend:** As first noted at this spring's EthDenver conference, crypto teams now recognize that mass consumers want financial services that follow usage patterns they are familiar with vs learning new techniques. Trad-fi players likewise see a huge opportunity to embrace the benefits of crypto while leveraging their digital experience expertise. Expect a competition to heat up to see who can provide the best benefits for individuals and families.
---
## Nature Notes: Akiapolau'au
This past week I was able to experience the cool alpine air and unspoiled habitat of the [Hakalau Forest](https://www.fws.gov/refuge/hakalau-forest?ref=s3t.org), one of the last surviving old-growth mountain forest havens for a few rare species of Hawaiian birds. It is literally like stepping back in time. If you stop and look around and listen, you are seeing and hearing what Hawaii was like a thousand years ago. The air is cool and silent except for the call of the original native Hawaiian birds, and the sound of the wind blowing through native trees and giant ferns.
While hiking there, we were so fortunate to encounter the [Akiapolau'au](https://ebird.org/species/akiapo?ref=s3t.org), an endangered Hawaiian honeycreeper with an unusual beak.
Notice how different the top and bottom mandibles are. No this is not a deformity. This species uses the bottom to peck - like a woodpecker - but uses the top mandible to dig into crevices and pull out insects. Below the bird uses its curved upper mandible to dig out an insect.
Hawaii Forest & Trail is one of the few tour companies authorized to enter the protected area. Sign up for a future opportunity here:
[Hakalau Exclusive - Hawaii Forest & TrailNamed by Hawaiians long ago, Hakalau means “many perches” and is still considered a critical rainforest bird habitat today. Join Hawaii Forest & Trail’s expert birding guides for an unforgettable day exploring the birds, wildlife, & a native forest in the Hakalau Wildlife Refuge.Hawaii Forest & Trail](https://hawaii-forest.com/tours/hakalau-exclusive/?ref=s3t.org)
---
Hi, I’m Ralph Perrine, founder of S3T Newsletter. Thank you for reading this week’s edition! It's ok to forward the newsletter to a friend or colleague.
I created S3T to empower change leaders with the knowledge and skills they need to navigate the ever-evolving landscapes of economics and emerging tech.
We are all bombarded daily with more headlines and threads than we can keep up with. I strive to select and share the most important developments and insights with a view to helping you be ready for what's coming, make better decisions, and have the impact you want to have.
Your feedback is greatly appreciated and matters to me, always love to hear what you are working on and how S3T can bring more value to your learning and success. Direct message me @ralphperrine on LinkedIn or Twitter anytime.
Cheers,
Ralph Perrine
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial advice. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed.*
### 💯️ For Paying Members: Continuing your learning about GenAI and LLMs
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T August 11 - Learning Curves and Accountability, Crypto as GOP wedge issue, testing Supermind Ideator, OverflowAI...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/august-18/
Last updated: 2023-08-11T05:28:15.000Z
*🔊* [Listen to this newsletter on the S3T Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org)
---
****In this edition:**
- **Change Leadership Skills:** The constant emergence of new technologies presents a specific set of dilemmas for technology-related governance teams and regulators.
- **Macroeconomics:** Corporate opportunism creates the kind of inflation that interest rates don't address. Crypto as a wedge issue for GOP.
- **Emerging Tech:** Stack Overflow rolls out an experiment in AI-based semantic search. Plus: test drive of MIT Supermind Ideator.
---
## 📖️ Change Leadership Notebook: Learning Curves and Accountability
###
Who is responsible for Security by Design?
This [longer Techcrunch piece on the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA)](https://techcrunch.com/2023/07/29/cisas-security-by-design-initiative-is-at-risk-heres-a-path-forward/?ref=s3t.org) highlights a practical set of challenges that change leaders should understand so they can be ready to partner with governance and regulators to innovate in a responsible and timely manner.
The Techcrunch piece explains the implementation challenges for the next generation of security by design and offers a path forward. On a tactical level, it's highly recommended reading for CISOs and security professionals.
It also provides a perfect springboard for thinking in a more strategic manner about the way that innovators and governance or regulator teams need to collaborate without compromising each other's integrity and mission.
### The Challenge of Accountability in an Age of Accelerating Innovation
Governance teams and regulators alike have a similar set of tasks:
- identifying risks,
- establishing best practices,
- enforcing compliance, holding the right parties accountable
The constant emergence of new technologies presents a specific set of dilemmas for technology-related governance teams and regulators:
- How do you remain expert enough to provide meaningful scrutiny and guidance?
- How do you avoid slowing down the pace of innovation, simply because you're not learning as fast as you need to?
### Case in point: who's accountable for the actions of autonomous agents?
As the diversifying capabilities of AI increase the number of autonomous agents taking actions with real-world impacts, a new kind of risk management and economic math will need to evolve and be able to answer these 3 questions.
- Who owns and operates these autonomous agents?
- Who is accountable for what these agents do? And the impact they have?
- Who has the right to extract profit from the economic activity that these agents provide?
In the current status quo, a similar set of 3 questions exist, though they have so far only been applied to non-autonomous agents:
- Who owns and operates a platform or corporation
- What control are they expected to maintain (and be able to prove in an audit)
- Who has the right to extract profits from the operation of these assets?
Corporations and their sometimes cozy collaborators at the federal level, have been clever at separating these 3 questions in ways that optimize gains while minimizing taxes and accountability for corporations - often at the expense of everyone else. Creative accounting, corporate structures and legislative loopholing have been raised to an art form in service of maximum gain for minimum responsibility.
To date, the safety net underneath all this high-flying fun has been a *specific segment* of the tax base - the least empowered, least informed, least likely to be able to take advantage of tax shelters - you guessed it, the lower to middle-income taxpayers who always get stuck with the bill. Bailouts, cleanups, recoveries, you name it, just get added to the tab of the lower to middle-income taxpayers.
From Wall Street and Capitol Hill this has always looked like the safest most comfortable approach (whatever the objections from Main Street). But in a highly automated future, this brand of opportunism could impose new and unprecedented kinds of risks and impacts that lower to middle taxpayers will lack the resources to underwrite.
In other words, the status quo - which to be clear isn't working in an equitable manner now - definitely will not work in the AI-driven future. **How will we learn together and prove out what will work to ensure good outcomes?**
### Getting up the Learning Curve Together
Innovation-minded change leaders can foster a collaborative and constructive relationship with regulators and governance boards while maintaining their integrity and commitment to change. Here is a simple playbook of key strategies to leverage when working with governance boards (at the corporate or industry level) or government regulators :
- **Proactive engagement:** Instead of waiting for regulators to intervene, change leaders should proactively engage with them early on. Admittedly some regulators have not made this easy. Seeking input and feedback *during the development* of new technologies or initiatives can help identify potential regulatory concerns and address them collaboratively.
- **Transparency and open communication:** Change leaders should maintain open lines of communication with regulators and governance boards. Being transparent about the intention of a specific innovation as well as its potential risks will drive better understanding and trust-building than withholding or parceling out information piecemeal. Openly discussing the benefits and challenges of an initiative shows a commitment to responsible innovation.
- **Balance long-term and near-term:** Share the long-term vision for positive change and the benefits innovation can bring to society and industry, as well as the near-term plans for advancing that long-term vision. Demonstrating a commitment to the greater good and sustainable progress can resonate with regulators and governance boards who also have the responsibility to maintain appropriate controls and safeguard the public interest.
- **Demonstrate compliance and responsible practices:** Change leaders should exemplify a concern for ethics, and a strong culture of compliance and responsible practices within their firms. Adhering to industry standards, best practices and ethical guidelines should foster a better working relationship.
- **Educate and orient about emerging tech and the changes they cause:** Change leaders can play a role in educating regulators and governance boards about the potential benefits and risks associated with new technologies. Offer clear but thorough points, backed by data and research, in the spirit of helping governance teams or regulators understand the important context and make more informed decisions. If possible bring neutral 3rd parties (who have nothing to gain) to the table who can provide explanations and education about the emerging capabilities and risks.
- **Positive engagement during regulation processes:** When new regulations are being considered, change leaders can actively participate in the consultation process. By offering insights, data, and constructive feedback, they can help shape regulations that are both effective in ensuring accountability and supportive of innovation.
Don't let yourself or your team fall into an all-or-nothing false tradeoff mindset where you assume that you either have to slow roll innovations to please regulators or do an end run around regulators to make the innovation go forward. **Building collaborative relationships based on trust and shared objectives can lead to more effective governance without compromising innovation or accountability.** By following these approaches, change leaders who are driving new innovations can do their part to ensure a productive working relationship with regulators and governance boards while staying true to their mission as committed leaders of change and ensuring the integrity of the regulatory and accountability processes.
---
Photo by [Johannes Plenio](https://unsplash.com/@jplenio?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Macroeconomics: the best of times and the worst
###
The kind of inflation that interest rates can't impact
[Annie Lowrey delivers a great summary of today's mixed economic picture](https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/07/us-economy-labor-market-inflation-housing/674790/?ref=s3t.org). By historic standards, many economic indicators suggest we are better off than ever if you compare today's numbers against historic numbers. But that misses two points:
- Inflation is causing those numbers to be higher
- The benefits are not being felt evenly
This calls to mind [Lowrey's 2020 piece on the Affordability Crisis](https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/02/great-affordability-crisis-breaking-america/606046/?ref=s3t.org) that exposed how families were being squeezed by opportunistic "landlords, hospital administrators, university bursars, and child-care centers." This is a source of inflation that interest rates don't address.
💰
**"Corporate profits constitute a larger-than-normal share of recent price increases and wages a smaller-than-normal share."**
\- [Center on Budget and Policy Priorities Chart Book July 28 2023](https://www.cbpp.org/research/economy/tracking-the-recovery-from-the-pandemic-recession?ref=s3t.org#profits)
This aligns with findings highlighted by Josh Bivens (Economic Policy Institute) that [corporate profits have contributed disproportionately to inflation](https://www.epi.org/blog/corporate-profits-have-contributed-disproportionately-to-inflation-how-should-policymakers-respond/?ref=s3t.org). Key points of the argument summarized here:
- The Nonfinancial Corporate sector of the economy covers goods and services, and comprise \~75% of the private commercial sector.
- This large sector of the economy has very strong clear data about its costs and margins
- Since mid-2020 this data shows 6.1% annual increase in overall costs - sharply up from the previous annual average of 1.8%
- **53.9% of cost increases is attributable to profit margins while only 8% is attributable to increased labor costs.**
- In the previous 40 years (back to 1979) profits contributed 11% and labor costs 60%
See chart below for visual comparison.
[Image Courtesy of EPI](https://www.epi.org/blog/corporate-profits-have-contributed-disproportionately-to-inflation-how-should-policymakers-respond/?ref=s3t.org)
### Rethinking how we measure inflation
In summary, I think it's vital for leaders to be clear on exactly why headline inflation indicators [paint a picture of moderating inflation](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-28/us-inflation-cooled-while-consumer-spending-picked-up-in-june?ref=s3t.org), even as other more insidious forms of inflation persist and continue to rise.
The Federal Reserve's war on headline inflation - an arbitrarily narrow set of indicators that don't fully reflect the impact of inflation on families - amounts to fairly useless pageantry, if the root causes of inflation are not addressed and the financial outlook for US families remains as bleak as ever.
It may be appropriate for Congress to ask the Federal Reserve, central banks and other economically impactful agencies to **rethink how we measure inflation. Definitely a topic to take up with your elected representatives.**
### Summing up the crypto heyday
[Easy Money](https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/61783837?ref=s3t.org) a new book by actor Ben McKenzie (of O.C. and Gotham) is highly critical of the crypto industry, riffing off the scandalous headlines of the last two years, with some fascinating insider takes.
As Vox points out [this is yet another celebrity talking about crypto](https://www.vox.com/money/2023/7/21/23800779/ben-mckenzie-easy-money-the-oc-book-interview-crypto?ref=s3t.org) (a genre with mixed results), but I do think the book and its message is worth looking at for three reasons:
- This book summarizes the fears and accusations of the anti-crypto lobby which includes Elizabeth Warren, Gary Gensler, and notable others, and I expect it to become something of a respected cultural reference for these groups. The book scored an endorsement from no less than [Ron Chernow](https://ronchernow.com/?ref=s3t.org), noted author of the critically acclaimed books *Hamilton*, *Grant*, and others (see [“Praise” section at the publisher’s product page](https://www.abramsbooks.com/product/easy-money%5F9781419766398/?utm%5Fsource=npr&utm%5Fmedium=display&utm%5Fcampaign=easymoney)).
- The book provides insight into a possible wedge issue for GOP: The book and its author were featured on the [July 23 podcast of the Bulwark](https://www.thebulwark.com/podcast-episode/just-say-no-to-crypto-with-ben-mckenzie/?ref=s3t.org), a respected standard-bearer of the never-Trump wing of the Republican party. This stands in sharp contrast to numerous other GOP members who have come out in favor of crypto.
- The book is also a useful index of what crypto haters refuse to see: While McKenzie and co-author Jacob Silverman are right to call out the scams, the book does not appear to recognize the new powerful financial building blocks offered by blockchain and token architectures, and what can be - is being - built with those new financial building blocks.
I do think that books (or other materials) that carry themes like this have usefulness for thoughtful regulators as well as crypto industry leaders who are developing governance frameworks and want to build trust.
---
Photo by [Justin Ha](https://unsplash.com/@mekanizm?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Emerging Tech
### OverflowAI: GenAI comes to Stack Overflow
Stack Overflow is [rolling out a new AI-based semantic search it calls OverflowAI](https://stackoverflow.blog/2023/07/27/announcing-overflowai/?ref=s3t.org). In this, Stack Overflow is attempting to walk a line between maintaining the trust of the community, with its strong emphasis on human expertise, and the desire to leverage the power of GenAI. Sign up for updates and learn more at the [new Stack Overflow Labs page here](https://stackoverflow.co/labs/?ref=s3t.org).
### Testing MIT's SuperMind Ideator
I was one of the first selected to try out [MIT’s Supermind Ideator](https://ideator.mit.edu/?ref=s3t.org), an AI powered assistant designed to boost the creativity and brainstorming of teams and individuals.
🔒
Paying members have access to a [deep dive of the Ideator](https://www.s3t.org/testing-mits-super-mind-ideator/) in action with its strengths and shortcomings revealed via a deep dive example prompt and its responses. The example illustrates how the tool can help you and your team examine problems and solutions, and how tools like this could enhance your strategy and ideation approaches. The Ideator helped to surface new ways of approaching the problem, as well as possible solutions.
**Key Takeaways:**
- Provides a structured approach to exploring a problem and potential starting points for solutions.
- Does not yet have strong ability to reference sources. In one attempt to provide a source, the URL to the source could not be retrieved.
- Demonstrated the ability to connect to other data sources (in this case the Supermind Design Library...a database of innovation ideas).
- Try it in informal and non-confidential brainstorming exercises.
---
Hi, I’m Ralph Perrine, founder of S3T Newsletter. Thanks for reading this week’s edition!
I created S3T to empower change leaders with the knowledge and insights they need to navigate the ever-evolving landscapes of economics and emerging tech.
Your feedback is greatly appreciated and matters to me, always love to hear what you are working on and how S3T can bring more value to your learning and success.
Direct message me @ralphperrine on LinkedIn or Twitter anytime.
Cheers,
Ralph Perrine
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial advice. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed.*
##
##
### S3T August 4 - Content value scale, RT-2, China & the global south, Health inequities, VC spring, Lox
URL: https://www.s3t.org/august-4/
Last updated: 2023-08-04T05:28:07.000Z
*🔊*[Listen to this newsletter on the S3T Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org)
**In this edition:**
- **Change Leadership Skills:** Use this content filter to accelerate your learning and impact.
- **Macroeconomics:** China is investing in the global south, health inequity is costing trillions,
- **Emerging Tech:** Dawn of conversational interfaces for robots, Crypto finding a home in the Netherlands, Tech startups are back
- **Just for Fun:** An inspiring win-win for South African people and nature; The long history of Lox
Photo by [ThisisEngineering RAEng](https://unsplash.com/@thisisengineering?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## **Change Leadership: Staying Informed in an age of Information Overload**
*Getting more informed in less time sounds like an impossible dream, but it's not.*
Change Leaders want to stay informed about key developments in economics and emerging tech because both are deeply connected to the problem spaces where we innovate solutions and drive needed change. Unpleasant fact: Today's complex environment requires a cross-disciplinary approach to learning and skill building.
### **Overlords of Overload**
Unfortunately, tech and economics are large spaces, and today’s technology, finance, and business media produce more articles, newsletters, and social media threads than anyone could possibly read.
When you do try to catch up, the information overload leaves you feeling less informed than when you started. With an even longer list of things to catch up on.
This will only get worse as media companies embrace GenAI and flood the Internet with automated low trust content.
**What is the best lens to filter out the noise and find the important signals you need to focus on?** How do you connect with the insights and learning most helpful for what you’re working on right now?
Fortunately, there is a lens you can start using right now that will let you do exactly this. I use this lens to filter out the noise and focus on what deserves attention and want to share it with you.
### **How it works**
This lens shows you the 4 categories of news sources that exist so you know which ones to pay less attention to and hone in on the ones that can offer you the most value in the least amount of time.
It works because it categorizes in reference to *what you are trying to accomplish* and what kind of impact you want to have.
Let’s look at the 4 categories of information sources so you can learn to find and focus on what helps you the most and reduce time spent reading or scrolling through low-value content.
## **4 Categories of Information Sources for Change Leaders**
###
**Category 1: Awareness Content makes you aware of general news, events and views in industry and tech.**
- Overwhelming numbers of items every day - 10s of thousands.
- Hard to differentiate actionable info from PR, marketing, opinions and hype.
- Overwhelmingly ad-supported, often in a highly distracting reading experience.
- Good for: Not much, but it does signal hype cycles and bubbles *(When the market is highly excited, you should probably be the opposite)*.
The majority of newsletters, industry magazines, and social media channels fall into this category. They promise to make you *aware* of emerging technology or industry trends, usually via an ad-supported platform.
This is the easiest source to encounter but generally a low-quality one, and not a good use of time.
### **Category 2: Selection content helps you select technologies, tools, or investments**
- Hundreds of sources and items - too many to keep up with.
- Ratings, Reviews, sometimes published side by side with marketing or PR info
- Usually ad-supported
- Good for: knowing the dominant purchasing and investing themes.
Thissmaller subset of information sources aspires to provide something beyond mere awareness and help readers understand which technologies and trends may be worth paying attention and investing in. This category caters primarily to two kinds of readers:
- Individual or Corporate decision-makers who are contemplating technology tools or systems.
- Investors who seek early involvement in promising opportunities. This subset includes newsletters that target profit-seeking investors by providing strategies for early exposure to the adoption of emerging technologies.
### **Category 3: Adoption content helps customers adopt and implement new technologies.**
- Fewer sources and items, with varying quality
- Longer reads discussing adoption and implementation approaches, risks and maturity paths.
- Often published as limited free content by consulting or tech services companies to demonstrate expertise to potential clients.
- Good for: Case studies of implementations (sometimes) or more technical explanations of implementation options.
This is a smaller subset focused on helping customers adopt and implement new technologies. Usually, these information sources are written by the staff of larger consulting companies for the purposes of attracting large corporations who need system implementation services.
### **Category 4: Outcomes-focused content helps change leaders gain insights and build skills to drive successful results.**
- Very few sources offer this
- Curates the best of the first 3 categories, but adds research-backed strategic insights and proven methods for success.
- Written from first-hand experience and expertise
- Good for: purpose-driven leaders and teams who need more focused insights and skill building because they have a target outcome they are trying to achieve.
This is the sweet spot for mission-driven innovators - change leaders who need to work in complex regulated environments to bring measurable real-world benefits while also managing risks and preventing bias and harm. There is not a lot of this kind of content out there, but when you see it, it stands out from everything else.
### Apply this to your strategy for staying ahead of the curve
Next time you're listening to a podcast, or reading online, consider which of these 4 categories that content falls into, so you can make the most of your limited time for learning and planning.
Beyond that, set aside time each week when you will spend time intentionally to update your understanding of economic and emerging tech developments and sharpen your change leadership skills.
Make yourself a list of the few information sources you will consult. You'll want to curate this short list so that it gives you the maximum value in the shortest amount of time.
When you read and spent time online, notice how different reading experiences and information sources *make you feel*. If you leave feeling overwhelmed, behind the curve, or inadequate, then you are probably spending time with a publication or platform where one or more of the following are true:
- The content is not well-curated,
- Advertising is the key driver (Reading experience and comprehension is secondary)
- The platform caters to participants who like to display what they know rather than help others learn.
To recap: you've just gained a valuable lens for viewing and filtering the massive amount of content being generated on a daily basis. By putting this lens to work you can maximize your learning and effectiveness while making the best use of your time and focus. Good luck!
---
Photo by [Alessio Lin](https://unsplash.com/@lin%5Falessio?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## **Macroeconomics**
### China and the global south
[China is building trade relationships across the global south](https://www.noemamag.com/the-world-china-is-building/?ref=s3t.org) \- selling tech, infrastructure, and a vision that these countries (which in some ways resemble what China looked like a generation ago) can become modern powerhouses too.
### Cost of inequities in healthcare
A new healthcare study finds [health inequities cost the state of Massachusetts alone 23.5 billion per year](https://www.bluecrossmafoundation.org/publication/time-now-59-billion-case-massachusetts-health-equity-reform?ref=s3t.org). These *state-level findings* align with broader research noted in the [Aug 21, 2022 edition of S3T](https://www.s3t.org/s3t-aug-21/), summarized in this [Economic Letter from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco](https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2021/october/from-gaps-to-growth-equity-as-path-to-prosperity/?ref=s3t.org) (Oct 2021). Bottom line: inequality is costing the U.S. Trillions.
For example, if just four key racial gaps for Blacks — wages, education, housing, and investment — were closed 20 years ago, $16 trillion could have been added to the U.S. economy. ([*Closing Racial Inequity Gaps* Dana Peterson, Catherine Mann Sept 2020](https://icg.citi.com/icghome/what-we-think/citigps/insights/closing-the-racial-inequality-gaps-20200922?ref=s3t.org)).
The economic impact of this issue has prompted the National Academies to [call for a federal agency responsible for implementing a health equity policy audit and scorecard](https://www.nationalacademies.org/news/2023/07/u-s-should-create-a-federal-entity-responsible-for-advancing-racial-ethnic-and-tribal-health-equity-and-implement-a-health-equity-policy-audit-and-score-card?ref=s3t.org).
**If you want to engage your analytics team to take action in your community on this issue, here is an excellent guide to help you get started:** The Massachusetts Office of Health Equity has created a [Racial Equity Data Road Map](https://www.mass.gov/service-details/racial-equity-data-road-map?ref=s3t.org) which is so much more than a roadmap. It’s a tool kit with a wealth of resources:
- Reframing exercises to raise awareness,
- Detailed pointers for data and analytics practitioners selecting data sources,
- Methods for measuring health inequities,
- Guidance for creating initiatives that use data to improve health equity.
Highly recommended for change leaders who intend to formulate an approach for taking action.
---
## **Emerging Tech**
### Google's RT-2 Brings Conversational Interface to Robots
[Google has just announced RT-2](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/rt-2-new-model-translates-vision-and-language-into-action?ref=s3t.org) a breakthrough capability that allows a person to give a robot verbal commands for performing tasks with real-world objects. This represents a step beyond the digital manipulation of ChatGPT - where text strings or data elements are manipulated in response to human language prompts:
- Recognizing and storing information about physical objects in the robot's vision
- Recognizing and responding to human commands that refer to physical objects in the robot's vision
- Moving robot arms and grippers to manipulate physical objects
This [shorter post summarizes](https://blog.google/technology/ai/google-deepmind-rt2-robotics-vla-model/?ref=s3t.org) (with links to deeper material) the chain-of-thought prompting and vision models that enable robots to recognize objects in context, distinguish them from other objects and then manipulate them in response to commands - all [without requiring explicit training](https://www.xda-developers.com/google-rt-2-ai-model-talking-robots/?ref=s3t.org).
### Tech & VC Spring?
There are signs that the VC and Tech winter may be thawing [and that the worst is over](https://techcrunch.com/2023/07/14/venture-capital-is-doing-better/?ref=s3t.org).
- Polychain just [raised $200M for its next round venture fund](https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/07/18/crypto-vc-firm-polychain-capital-raises-200m-for-fourth-fund-fortune/?ref=s3t.org).
- This interesting perspective from Israel suggests that [Europe and US VCs are moving forward faster than Israel](https://www.al-monitor.com/pro/memos/israeli-tech-risk-not-joining-global-industry-recovery?ref=s3t.org) (Israel has long been a leader in tech startups).
### Crypto.Com
Crypto.com [has received approval to conduct business in the Netherlands](https://cointelegraph.com/news/crypto-com-registers-in-the-netherlands?ref=s3t.org). The approval from the Dutch central bank confirms the firms compliance with anti-money laundering and other laws and marks the 37th crypto firm to gain approval in the Netherlands.
---
## For Paying Members
### 🏫 [S3T Resource Library](https://www.s3t.org/topics/)
*Curated collections of insights, time-saving explainers and accelerators that frame key trends and issues with important context and perspectives. Some include worksheets or additional resources.*
### 🛠 [40 Best Online Tools & Resources](https://www.s3t.org/tools/)
*Top trusted online tools that save you time and $$$, as well as best online sources for emerging tech & research, economic insights, shifts, trends, history, culture and nature.*
### 🌍 [Global Economic Dashboard](https://www.s3t.org/dashboard/)
*500+ US & Intl real-time economic indicators organized by nation and release dates. Tap or click any indicator for detailed charts.*
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*Top 100 Crypto Market Prices and Indicators. Colors indicate 24hr price movement, size of boxes indicate Market Cap.*
**Not a paying member? *[Sign up for your 14 day free trial!](www.s3t.org/14-day-free-trial)***
---
Photo by [Casey Allen](https://unsplash.com/@westbeach013?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## **Nature Notes: Inclusivity and Increased Access to Scientific Knowledge**
Roberts, a historic publisher specializing in documenting and sharing knowledge of the \~900 bird species of South Africa is now[ partnering with Cornell University and Birds of the World](https://birdsoftheworld.org/bow/news/roberts-8-partnership?ref=s3t.org).
The Birds of the World online library - the definitive source for global information and data on bird species will now feature the Roberts content starting with version 8 - referred to as "Robert's 8."
**The partnership creates a win for ornithology** **and** **inclusivity:**
- Available in 90+ languages and dialects.
- Available free for those living in South Africa (normally paid subscription).
- Standardizes and enriches the available data and information, and media about South African bird species.
**I call this out because it's a notable example of change leadership values at work:** Instead of settling for a narrow improvement to scientific curation, the teams acted with broader awareness and *enabled increased benefits and access for regional communities.* Learn more at the link below.
[Birds of the World - Birds of the World is the new home for Roberts 8 (Birds of Southern Africa) species contentThanks to a unique publishing partnership with the John Voelcker Bird Book Fund (JVBBF), the entireLynx Edicions](https://birdsoftheworld.org/bow/news/roberts-8-partnership?ref=s3t.org)
---
##
Sensible Ideas: Lox
The next time you're enjoying lox and bagels, remember this [family tree of Indo-European languages](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/IndoEuropeanTree.svg?ref=s3t.org) which depicts the ancestry of the 440 languages spoken by half of the world's population today. [As explained by Sevindj Nurkiyazova](https://getpocket.com/explore/item/the-english-word-that-hasn-t-changed-in-sound-or-meaning-in-8-000-years?ref=s3t.org), the 8,000-year-old word *Lox* is living proof of multiple relationships in that family tree, due to its startlingly unchanged meaning and pronunciation over eight millenia.
[The English Word That Hasn’t Changed in Sound or Meaning in 8,000 YearsThe word lox was one of the clues that eventually led linguists to discover who the Proto-Indo-Europeans were, and where they lived.PocketSevindj Nurkiyazova:extract_focal()/http%3A%2F%2Fstatic.nautil.us%2F16021_16b2399ccd1419de9e098d7abf025eb6.jpg)](https://getpocket.com/explore/item/the-english-word-that-hasn-t-changed-in-sound-or-meaning-in-8-000-years?ref=s3t.org)
[According to this history](https://www.buffalomarket.com/blogs/news/the-history-of-bagels-and-lox?ref=s3t.org), bagels and lox were invented in the 1930's as a kosher alternative to eggs benedict which had become a sensation at the time.
If you want to chase down the very best in lox and bagels here are 2 guides:
- Food & Wine's [guide to the best bagels in America](https://www.foodandwine.com/travel/restaurants/best-bagels-america?ref=s3t.org)
- Taste Atlas's guide to the [best bagels and lox in the world](https://www.tasteatlas.com/bagel-and-lox/wheretoeat?ref=s3t.org).
Adventure beckons.
---
## Final Note and Thank You!
Hi, I’m Ralph Perrine, founder of S3T Newsletter. Thanks for reading this week’s edition!
I created S3T to empower change leaders with the knowledge and insights they need to navigate the ever-evolving landscapes of economics and emerging tech. Together, let's embrace challenges, seize opportunities, and shape a brighter future through effective leadership and strategic innovation.
If you have any questions or suggestions, I’d love to hear your thoughts! Direct message me @ralphperrine on LinkedIn or Twitter anytime. Thank you!
Cheers,
Ralph
---
*Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial advice. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed.*
##
### S3T - July 28: Smarter, more inclusive Annual Planning, Emerging Economy Growth, ML with Code Interpreter, Llama 2, FedNow kills float, AOS Checklist...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/july-28-2023/
Last updated: 2023-07-28T05:28:39.000Z
*🔊* [Listen to this newsletter on the S3T Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org)
---
****In this edition:**
- **Change Leadership Skills:** Having an inclusive annual planning process helps your company be more competitive. Plus: exclusive Annual Planning guide for paying members.
- **Macroeconomics:** The Fed raised rates another quarter point, as Eurozone economic indicators turn negative. The IMF releases its global outlook.
- **Emerging Tech:** AI-driven coding tools are taking off. Llama 2 gets snared by a open source controversy and we take Code Interpreter for a test drive (exclusive deep dive for paid members).
- **Nature Notes:** The American Ornithological Union just released the 2023 official North American Bird Species List - what's changed.
---
Photo by [Headway](https://unsplash.com/@headwayio?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## **Change Leadership**
### 🧭 Smarter, more inclusive annual planning
The annual budget season (which many companies are entering) is an important time to demonstrate inclusivity and find the very best ideas that will take the company forward in the next fiscal year. This may mean changing some of the age-old habits and methods for budget season.
Annual budgeting processes have traditionally favored insiders. This traditional way of doing things can actually harm company culture and lessen competitive advantages.
That’s why it’s so important to understand the relevance of including the inputs of individuals and teams you might not have traditionally consulted when gathering budget requests.
*In this section, I’m going to introduce the S3T Guide for Smarter More Inclusive Annual Planning, a framework, step-by-step process, and a calendar to help your team have the best annual planning season yet.*
### 2 Key thought pattern changes you'll learn in the Guide
**Inclusive annual planning is vital to the company’s culture**:
- Annual budgeting processes have traditionally favored insiders - those with connections - which can make it a serious demoralizing factor in the company culture, but it doesn't have to be this way.
- Months of careful work to create a positive inclusive culture can be undone in a few weeks of careless budget planning.
- Leaders who demonstrate a pattern of saying the right sound bites, while following the money, breed a culture of cynicism and hypocrisy.
**Inclusive annual planning is equally important for the company’s competitive advantage**:
- Companies that practice an insular budget process are at risk of a dangerous form of groupthink, rolling the same old projects and themes into the next year, even as the obvious signals from the rest of the world scream for change.
- Critical insights about what a company should do next are scattered randomly through the company’s population. They won’t consistently come from one group or one part of the enterprise. Taking an inclusive approach increases your chances of finding those high-value insights when there is still a window of opportunity to act on them.
🔒
Paying members can click here ([www.s3t.org/better-annual-planning/](https://www.s3t.org/better-annual-planning/)) to access the downloadable workbook: *S3T Guide for Smarter More Inclusive Annual Planning*, your annually updated framework for introducing smarter more inclusive annual planning to your company or clients. If you are not a paying member and would like to have access to these and other high-value frameworks and tools, you can [sign up right now](https://www.s3t.org/14-day-free-trial).
---
Photo by [Kleomenis Spyroglou](https://unsplash.com/@kspyroglou?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Macro: Developed economies shrink as emerging ones grow
🏛 The Federal Reserve [raised interest rates another quarter point](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230726a.htm) to 5.5%, its highest level in 20 years. The US economic picture continues to be mixed, with [signs of resilience](https://www.axios.com/2023/07/27/gdp-resilient-economy?ref=s3t.org) and [strong GDP growth](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gdp-us-economy-grows-at-a-faster-pace-than-expected-in-q2-124533676.html?ref=s3t.org) amid a gloomier global outlook (see below). Here is a [helpful explainer](https://www.npr.org/2023/07/24/1189268260/economy-recession-inflation-jobs-interest-rates?ref=s3t.org) from David Gura and Scott Horsley (NPR).
Also worth a read...the comments in this X - *previously known as Twitter* \- thread:
> A lot of people saying that disinflation was caused by Fed rate hikes.And even though I supported those hikes — I don't think there was any alternative — I'm puzzled by these claims. How is this supposed to have worked? 1/
>
> — Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) [July 14, 2023](https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1679844112999018498?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org)
Photo by [Alexander Schimmeck](https://unsplash.com/@alschim?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### 🌏 Global Outlook
This week the International Monetary Fund released its [latest quarterly World Economic Outlook](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO?ref=s3t.org) \- a survey of global economic developments by IMF staff economists. Key points:
- Global growth is projected to slow from 3.5% to 3.0% over 2023-2024
- Global inflation projections have been revised upward for 2024, with inflation expected to moderate at a slow pace.
- The [report overview](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2023/07/10/world-economic-outlook-update-july-2023?ref=s3t.org) notes "widening divergences among economic sectors and regions", with **only Southeast Asia and Africa experiencing growth thru 2024**.
Europe’s [economic indicators worsened in July](https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/euro-zone-business-downturn-deepens-far-more-than-thought-july-pmi-2023-07-24/?ref=s3t.org) with factor and service economy metrics falling more than expected. The indicators increased worries of a Euro-zone recession.
### Payment Modernization
FedNow [went live on July 20](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20230720a.htm), enabling instant payments for the initial set of [early adopter institutions](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/files/other20230720a1.pdf) (PDF), but [bringing some potentially serious downsides ](https://www.paymentsdive.com/news/fednow-moodys-federal-reserve-banks-payments-faster-cheaper/654418/?ref=s3t.org)for banks and insurers. 📉 [What CFOs need to know](https://www.cfodive.com/news/six-ways-fednow-may-affect-businesses-cash-flow/688808/?ref=s3t.org) about how **FedNow will impact float and cash management**.
Also: [SAP is testing USDC for cross-border payments](https://decrypt.co/145832/sap-experiments-with-circles-usdc-to-solve-cross-border-payment-hassle?ref=s3t.org)
---
## 👾 **Emerging Tech: AI driven coding tools**
###
### Meta Llama 2 Controversy
Meta has just [released Llama 2](https://about.fb.com/news/2023/07/llama-2/?ref=s3t.org) hoping to differentiate it as an Open option (vs others AI-driven coding tools), but the Open Source Initiative has [voiced concern that Llama 2 is not a true open source initiative](https://blog.opensource.org/metas-llama-2-license-is-not-open-source/?ref=s3t.org) because it does actually restrict how some outputs can be used.
If you are planning to experiment with Llama 2 here are a couple of positive actions you can take:
- See if your legal team has recommendations on how to evaluate the future use of something your team might create with Llama so you don’t run afoul of Meta’s limitations.
- Participate in this deeper dive [collaboration to create a more clear definition of what Open Source means in the context of AI](https://opensource.org/deepdive/?ref=s3t.org).
### Test Drive: Code Interpreter for ML and Data Analysis
ChatGPT recently added Code Interpreter, a feature that allows you to upload datasets and then use Python scripts and libraries to analyze the data, create visualizations, and train models.
I tested Code Interpreter and share what I observed further below.
First, if you'd like to try it yourself, here are a few tips:
- Ask ChatGPT how to use Code Interpreter. Ask questions like "what can I do with Code Interpreter?" or "How do I invoke Code Interpreter?" The instructions were surprisingly helpful.
- Go to Kaggle to find a dataset ([here's the one I used](https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/prasoonkottarathil/btcinusd?resource=download&select=BTC-Daily.csv&ref=s3t.org) for the example below). You'll need to download the file to your computer and then upload it to Code Interpreter.
- To upload a dataset, press the Plus icon next to the "Send a message" prompt:
Here are notes and screenshots from my own test drive.
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T Friday, July 21 - 12 month playbook for GenAI, Wage-inflation gap, evolution of data science, targeting the right kind of change...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/july-21-draft2/
Last updated: 2023-07-21T05:28:10.000Z
*🔊* [Listen to this newsletter on the S3T Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org)
---
****In this edition:**
- **Change Leadership Skills:** How to target *the right kind of change:* being selective about the kinds of change YOU decide to drive.
- **Macroeconomics:** Wages aren't keeping up with inflation. You want to understand this because it impacts your most vulnerable customers and community members.
- **Emerging Tech:** GenAI and Large Language Models are going to change the way we do data protection, governance and compliance.
- **For Paying Members: a 12-month playbook for GenAi tailored to CDOs, CISOs, CIOs, and CMOs. Succinct lists of top priorities to include in your 2024 planning and budget.**
---
## Change Leadership: Targeting the right kind of change
*Last week we talked about why it's important for everyone to learn change leadership skills. This week we want to build on that by talking about *how to target the right kind of change*: being selective about the kinds of change you decide to drive. This will help you recognize the kinds of projects you want to be part of and help you evaluate and measure your success.*
The status quo represents a state where no change occurs at all. It is a stagnant condition that often resists progress and improvement. Maintaining the status quo may seem comfortable and familiar, but it hinders growth and innovation. As change leaders, its our job to notice the limitations of the status quo and find constructive ways to challenge it.
Great. So we are committed to driving change. But let's get a little more specific:
In change leadership, it is essential to understand and differentiate between three different types of change: careless change, needed change, and needed change that endures.
### Careless Change
Careless Change refers to change pursued for the sake of novelty or misguided reasons. It lacks thoughtful planning and full consideration of its potential impact. A common example of this in the … industry is … Careless change can create more problems than it solves, leading to confusion, resistance, and unintended negative consequences. As change leaders, we must exercise caution and ensure that change is driven by genuine need and purpose.
**Examples of careless innovation**
In 2006, I published *America 2076: Pop Technology, and the New Future of Democracy*. In this book, I envisioned a glowing future where social media platforms would enable an electronic form of democracy, and we all worked on legislation together aided by a more direct more efficient form of representation than Congress could ever provide.
My thesis was flawed: I missed the fact that these platforms were unleashing algorithms designed primarily to drive engagement for advertisers, and were likely to contribute to political extremism. Today we classify these platforms as examples of careless innovation because the designers gave apparently no thought to how their creations might one day be used to mislead, divide and waste people’s time.
Another example: Three years ago, a well-known healthcare AI platform used an approach in its model training that encapsulated biases in medical spending, and caused the model to repeat the same form of bias, selecting some groups to receive less care than others simply because of race. Fortunately, an AI research group uncovered this bias and shared methods for preventing it in future iterations.
Careless innovations can bring unintended side effects and harm, sometimes at large scale. The potential for this needs to weigh heavily on the minds of change leaders and impact how we approach our work.
### Intentional, *needed* change
Needed change is change that is carefully planned and implemented to benefit others. It involves identifying areas for improvement and strategically addressing them. This type of change is driven by a genuine desire to make a positive impact and requires thoughtful analysis, stakeholder engagement, and effective execution. As change leaders, our focus should be on driving needed change that brings tangible benefits and improves the lives of those affected.
### Needed change *that endures*
Enduring change continues to provide lasting benefits, even as circumstances evolve and new challenges emerge. As change leaders, our highest aspiration is to learn how to create change that withstands the test of time and positively shapes the future. The ultimate goal for change leaders should be to create enduring changes.
Example of needed change that endures: I’ve been honored to be part of AI initiatives that used emerging tech to enable significant - even life-saving benefits to others. It’s gratifying beyond words to see the results - and hear continuing stories and examples of the impacts, especially after so much exhaustive work went into the careful design and creation of the platform.
###
How to get there
So now we've clarified the kinds of change and the ultimate goal: needed change that endures. How do we learn how to do this?
To become the kind of change leader who delivers needed change that endures, start with the understanding that **effective change leadership requires that you embrace a learning mindset and deliberately *cultivate a set of skills*.**
- Learn how to parse whats happening in emerging tech and economics and translate that into impacts to your company, customers and stakeholders.
- Learn how to navigate the complexities of change.
- Learn widely, and learn to connect dots. Be open to new ideas, perspectives, and insights.
- Learn how to foster collaboration, build strong relationships, and empower others to contribute to the change process.
Remember, change leadership is not about novelty or temporary fixes. It is about making a genuine difference, improving lives, and shaping a better future. By applying what you've learned here, you can help yourself and your teams be ready to embrace the opportunity to deliver needed change that endures.
---
Photo by [Nick Fewings](https://unsplash.com/@jannerboy62?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## **Macroeconomy**
### **Inflation Wage Gap**
Of all the mid-2023 economic outlooks compared in last week's newsletter, [the outlook from KKR](https://www.s3t.org/r/6902dd2c?m=d9ccfe01-4289-46c4-8d88-2c3a96a15f68), the alternative asset investment firm, stands out because they seem to grasp more than the others *the fractured nature of the economy*, saying that "**we are experiencing both a rolling recovery and rolling recession at the same time.**"
The Fed has focused on inflated wages (See Further Reading: Fed War on Wages below) in its reasoning for rate hikes, but the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) noted last year that 1 in 6 workers are employed in "[concentrated labor markets](https://www.s3t.org/r/98356bf4?m=d9ccfe01-4289-46c4-8d88-2c3a96a15f68)" - rural areas with fewer job options - where wages are not keeping pace with inflation.
**Subsequent data reveals that this labor market concentration issue impacts workers beyond just rural areas.** Earlier this year the OECD summarized the wage/inflation gap, finding that only Belgium is experiencing positive growth in real wages (see chart below). This means that wages are falling behind inflation in *most* of the developed world.
[Courtesy of OECD](https://www.s3t.org/r/08ddd5d4?m=d9ccfe01-4289-46c4-8d88-2c3a96a15f68)
Quick explainer on real vs nominal wages:
- Nominal wages refer to the dollar amount in your paycheck - by comparing over time, we can see how that amount may have increased or decreased.
- *Real wages* refers to buying power of your paycheck, given current prices. By comparing over time we can see whether we are gaining or losing buying power.
If your wages go up 3% but inflation increases by 5%, your pay isn't keeping up with inflation. You're losing buying power and goods and services are becoming less affordable for you. [See Investopedia for a longer explanation](https://www.s3t.org/r/45c8365f?m=d9ccfe01-4289-46c4-8d88-2c3a96a15f68).
### Wages are not culprit
If wages are falling behind, are wages really the culprit - or the only culprit - in rising inflation?
Robert Reich and others have argued that corporate financial practices that focus on maximizing profits can also contribute to inflation. This short [Sept 2022 opinion from Reich](https://www.s3t.org/r/a74de6bc?m=d9ccfe01-4289-46c4-8d88-2c3a96a15f68) summarizes this argument that *inflation is driven not by worker wages but by corporate profits,* specifically an increasingly clever set of financial practices used to maximize corporate profits.
### Rethinking Welchism
For a key example of these “clever financial practices” and to better understand their origins, check out *[The Man Who Broke Capitalism: How Jack Welch Gutted the Heartland and Crushed the Soul of Corporate America--And How to Undo His Legacy](https://www.thriftbooks.com/w/the-man-who-broke-capitalism-how-jack-welch-gutted-the-heartland-widened-the-wealth-gap-and-crushed-the-soul-of-corporate-americaand-how-to-undo-his-legacy%5Fdavid-gelles/31396921/item/58095796/?utm%5Fsource=google&utm%5Fmedium=cpc&utm%5Fcampaign=pmax%5Fhigh%5Fvol%5Fscarce%5F%2410%5F%2450&utm%5Fadgroup=&utm%5Fterm=&utm%5Fcontent=&gclid=CjwKCAjwh8mlBhB%5FEiwAsztdBKyYaUth2JYajucsmr8ipynC3iWWgu2XitY1ZWiRXCvSyEiRLHBt2xoCjvgQAvD%5FBwE#idiq=58095796&edition=60779519)* by David Gelles. The book chronicles Jack Welch's transformation of GE from an "[admired industrial manufacturer into what was effectively an unregulated bank](https://www.thriftbooks.com/w/the-man-who-broke-capitalism-how-jack-welch-gutted-the-heartland-widened-the-wealth-gap-and-crushed-the-soul-of-corporate-americaand-how-to-undo-his-legacy%5Fdavid-gelles/31396921/item/58095796/?utm%5Fsource=google&utm%5Fmedium=cpc&utm%5Fcampaign=pmax%5Fhigh%5Fvol%5Fscarce%5F%2410%5F%2450&utm%5Fadgroup=&utm%5Fterm=&utm%5Fcontent=&gclid=CjwKCAjwh8mlBhB%5FEiwAsztdBKyYaUth2JYajucsmr8ipynC3iWWgu2XitY1ZWiRXCvSyEiRLHBt2xoCjvgQAvD%5FBwE#idiq=58095796&edition=60779519),” and how the toolkit of approaches he used - stock buybacks for example - this approach became standard practice for other publically- traded Fortune 500 companies and contributed to the so-called [hollowing out of the middle class](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/hollowing-out.asp?ref=s3t.org).
### Further Reading on the inflation wage gap and its uneven impacts
**Labor market concentration**
- [Some Facts about Concentrated Labor Markets in the United States](https://www.bls.gov/osmr/research-papers/2022/pdf/ec220050.pdf%5C?ref=s3t.org) (PDF) - Elizabeth Weber Handwerker and Matthew Dey, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics June 2022.
- [Labor Market Concentration](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24147?ref=s3t.org) \- José Azar, Ioana Marinescu & Marshall I. Steinbaum, National Bureau of Economic Research. In this paper, authors calculate labor market concentration for over 8,000 geographic-occupational labor markets in the US.
- [A New Study of Labor Market Concentration](https://rooseveltinstitute.org/2018/03/05/a-new-study-of-labor-market-concentration/?ref=s3t.org) \- By Marshall Steinbaum, Roosevelt Institute. Argues from a growing body of research that employer power—monopsony—not a lack of education, is what holds workers back–from switching jobs, migrating, or from starting a new business.
- [Walmart as a notable monopsonist](https://equitablegrowth.org/walmart-is-a-monopsonist-that-depresses-earnings-and-employment-beyond-its-own-walls-but-u-s-policymakers-can-do-something-about-it/?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=%E2%80%94the%20largest%20private%2Dsector%20employer,well%20beyond%20the%20retail%20sector.) \- Justin Wiltshire, Washington Center for an Equitable Economy, March 29, 2022
- [Apple sued by French developers for monopsony](https://www.medianama.com/2022/08/223-french-ios-developers-sue-apple-app-store-distribution-monopoly/?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=Given%20that%20the%20App%20Store,distribution%20of%20iOS%20apps%20too.) \- Aarathi Ganesan, Medianama, August 3, 2022
**The Fed’s perspectives on wages**
- [Jerome Powell Jackson Hole Wy Comments 2022](https://apnews.com/article/inflation-jackson-wyoming-economy-prices-2158fcfcb5ef0073a4dfb00f791f59bc?ref=s3t.org) AP News Aug 26 2022\.
- Powell Jackson Hole [Speech excerpt as quoted in WP](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/08/26/fed-powell-jackson-hole/?ref=s3t.org): ““While higher interest rates, slower growth and softer labor market conditions will bring down inflation, they will also bring some pain to households and businesses. These are the unfortunate costs of reducing inflation.”
- [Wages are still growing rapidly. The Fed wants them to slow down](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2023/1/19/23550856/wage-growth-inflation-federal-reserve?ref=s3t.org). By[ Madeleine Ngo](https://www.vox.com/authors/madeleine-ngo?ref=s3t.org) Vox Jan 19, 2023
- [Wage growth is slowing. Blame the Federal Reserve.](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-economy-federal-reserve-jerome-powell-wages-inflation-recession/?ref=s3t.org) Irina Ivanova, Moneywatch CBS News March 2023.
##
---
Photo by [Raúl Cacho Oses](https://unsplash.com/fr/@raulcachophoto?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## **Emerging Tech**
### **What Generative AI is doing to Data Science (and Data Security)**
This new paper - *[What Should Data Science Education Do with Large Language Models?](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2307.02792v2.pdf?ref=s3t.org)* by researchers from Standford, UPenn, UofW and Rutgers shares a key insight about the future of data science. The paper focuses on data science education but is also a must-read for data governance and HR teams.
**As Large Language Models (LLMs) like ChatGPT become more prominent in data processing, major shifts are required in not just education and talent strategies but also** **data protection measures** **.**
### GenAI impacts for data science career education
The authors argue with concrete case studies that the data science role will evolve as GenAI-based tools streamline the data wrangling responsibilities that dominate so much of data scientists' attention today. They argue further that educational strategies must adapt. Curricula need to be updated to emphasize AI management and ethics, along with traditional data science and coding. Students should be equipped with skills to navigate the emerging landscape where humans and AI work in tandem, and to understand the capabilities and limitations of LLMs.
### Impacts for talent strategies
With LLMs streamlining intricate tasks like data cleaning, model building, and report writing, data scientists' roles are being transformed. The authors allude to the need to evolve talent strategies as LLMs redefine their roles within data science. With LLMs streamlining intricate tasks like data cleaning, model building, and report writing, data scientists' roles are being transformed. The focus is shifting away from direct coding and data manipulation towards assessing and managing the outcomes of AI-generated analyses. Therefore, future talent acquisition and development should center on skills like AI oversight, data interpretation, and ethical decision-making, rather than hands-on coding and data wrangling.
### Dilemmas for data governance and compliance
The authors of the paper did not address or seem to have an awareness of the implications of how this shift will impact data security and data governance. In fact, [HIPAA compliance](https://www.hipaajournal.com/hipaa-compliance-checklist/?ref=s3t.org) and Security are not discussed in the paper.
Nevertheless, what the authors highlight has some significant implications that data privacy and governance teams need to start thinking about:
- Data protection approaches will need a significant revamp, especially in regulated industries like healthcare and banking, where safeguarding sensitive data is paramount.
- **The conventional data security model, which relies heavily on** **controlling people and systems** **, needs to expand to include AI and the processes it executes.**
The emergence of GenAI and the desire to use it for regulated data creates two dilemmas for current industry stakeholders.
### The data processing dilemma
Traditionally we have ensured data safety by focusing on the control of individual access and system perimeters. This is no longer sufficient. The advent of generative AI introduces a new element that requires security and governance: **the data processing itself.**
So far there is very limited tooling focused on the problem of the governance of AI-related data processing. [Weights & Biases](https://wandb.ai/site?ref=s3t.org) is one notable exception.
Tooling is needed for implementing measures to monitor and control how AI handles data, ensuring it adheres to privacy and audit requirements, and continuously checking and validating AI actions.
Expect a new set of controls focusing on AI processes to emerge - and until they do, regulated data may have limited ability to leverage GenAI. (Healthcare and finance-focused VC groups may want to consider GenAI compliance as a priority investment theme.)
### The security perimeter dilemma
LLM-based data processing poses a dilemma for information security teams in regulated industries:
- Today's security model requires that regulated data be kept *inside* of secured perimeters. Access to this data is limited to specifically authorized people and carefully vetted software tools.
- Unfortunately for this security model, today's more powerful GenAI tools reside *outside* these secured perimeters.
**There will be high motivation from public and private stakeholders to resolve this** because some of the data kept inside these secured perimeters constitutes some of the largest most valuable data sets in the world. They could offer very large benefits to the health and well-being of individuals and communities if allowed to be processed by thoughtfully designed GenAI approaches.
In summary, as LLMs become more integral to data processing, the way we strategize talent acquisition, educate future data scientists, and protect sensitive data will have to evolve. This challenge will be especially acute for regulated industries which must balance their aspiration to unleash value from their data vs. their responsibility to protect the data and privacy of the industries and communities they serve.
Related: [The SEC mulls how to get in the AI regulation game](https://www.pymnts.com/artificial-intelligence-2/2023/sec-chair-gary-gensler-says-agency-developing-rules-for-ai-use/?ref=s3t.org).
---
Photo by [Ricardo Rocha](https://unsplash.com/@rcrazy?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## For Paying Members Only: Playbooks for C-Level stakeholders: GenAI moves to make in the next 12 months
### What these are and how to use them
Leading executives are already thinking about how to adapt strategically to the evolving GenAI landscape. Here is a set of playbooks for the specific members of your C-suite who are most likely to be impacted by GenAI in the next 12 months.
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T Newsletter Friday, July 14th
URL: https://www.s3t.org/july-14/
Last updated: 2025-09-27T22:03:33.000Z
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T Newsletter Friday, July 7th
URL: https://www.s3t.org/july7_fulledition/
Last updated: 2023-07-08T13:32:02.000Z
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T Newsletter Friday, June 30th - When your team members come from different versions of America. Economic and Emerging Tech Briefings.
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-june-30/
Last updated: 2023-07-03T12:05:56.000Z
When your team members come from different versions of America. Economic and Emerging Tech Briefings.
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T June 25 - Free Edition: Coup-Feud, Income vs Inflation, BIS Blueprint, Closed Loop Digital Wallets, Druid Heights, Shared Habitat, Birria
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-june-25-free-edition-coup-feud-income-vs-inflation-bis-blueprint-closed-loop-digital-wallets-druid-heights-shared-habitat-birria/
Last updated: 2023-06-25T05:28:56.000Z
*You are reading the Free version of the S3T Newsletter. By signing up you'll receive the hottest topics and awareness items for change leaders from the past week.*
*🔊* [Listen to this Newsletter on the S3T Podcast.](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org)
## 📈 📉 Macro - Coup talk, oil & inflation
News of unrest in Russia (essentially an out-of-control [feud between top military leaders](https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-prigozhin-shoigu-feud-decree-ukraine/32454350.html?ref=s3t.org)) also put markets on alert for energy implications:
- for general oil prices which [spiked recently on soaring demand from Asia](https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Middle-East-Oil-Prices-Soar-Amid-Chinese-Trading-Frenzy.html?ref=s3t.org).
- for India's oil purchases from Russia (India may have been set to reduce purchases [based on this week's White House meeting](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/06/22/joint-statement-from-the-united-states-and-india/?ref=s3t.org)).
Stocks were down this week on [concerns about the economy](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/marketwatch-weekly-recession-gauge-rises-in-troubling-fashion-405a90f?ref=s3t.org), [persistent inflation](https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/06/22/investors-must-prepare-for-sustained-higher-inflation?ref=s3t.org), and the prospect of continued Federal Reserve interest rate hikes causing a recession.
💡
Get the additional insights that Paying Members are learning about the income-to-inflation gap that's impacting customers, clients and patients: [sign up today to start your 30-day free trial](https://www.s3t.org/#/portal/signup)!
---
## Emerging Tech
### BIS Blueprint for Future Monetary System
This week the Bank for International Settlements published a "*[Blueprint for the future monetary system](https://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2023e3.pdf?%5F%5Fcf%5Fchl%5Ftk=vOM5Cb3UxB3kj.vhv9vQbIZ.NlHN0KJ7ZdFKPMg%5FuIA-1687635516-0-gaNycGzNCrs&ref=s3t.org)*" (PDF) an ambitious design for a blockchain-based "unified ledger" for a new global monetary system.
💡
Get the additional insights that Paying Members are getting: [sign up today to start your 30-day free trial](https://www.s3t.org/#/portal/signup)!
### Crypto Underbelly
The [June 18 NY Times piece on Kyle Roche](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/18/business/kyle-roche-crypto-leaks-satoshi.html?ref=s3t.org) spotlights the mischief that can happen when the murky world of international finance intersects with crypto. The piece references some not all of the evidence shared in a [more in-depth April 30 post by Arthur Van Pelt](https://medium.com/coinmonks/how-they-framed-lawyer-kyle-roche-f6d686784f7a?ref=s3t.org) (but does not credit Van Pelt).
Stories like this one fuel animosity toward crypto that distracts from the positive potential of this class of technology.
### Why Institutional Investors are returning to crypto
In spite of (perhaps because of? lol) the underbelly factor, Institutional Investors including Blackrock, Invesco, WisdomTree, Schwab, Citadel, Deutsche Bank, and others are announcing [new moves into crypto](https://www.oliverwymanforum.com/future-of-money/2023/jun/traditional-finance-embraces-tokenization-and-selectively-crypto.html?ref=s3t.org), in some cases refiling applications previously rejected by the SEC.
Theories abound about why an influx of Institutional Investors are now deciding to jump back into crypto, but [George Kaloudis has a simpler explanation](https://www.coindesk.com/consensus-magazine/2023/06/21/a-straightforward-explanation-for-why-financial-giants-want-to-issue-a-spot-bitcoin-etf/?ref=s3t.org): they just want to make money.
### Fidelity
[Fidelity's Midyear Outlook for Crypto June 2023](https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/crypto-mid-year-outlook?ref=s3t.org) \- focuses primarily on Bitcoin and Ethereum, noting recovery in first half of 2023 (vs 2022) and the questions hanging over regulation and future adoption.
## 🔎 Closer Examination
### Closed Loop Digital Wallets
Closed Loop Digital Wallets will handle 50% of ecommerce by 2030 and seriously cut into the revenues of credit card companies and banks says Maximilian Friedrich in this [FYI Innovation briefing](https://ark-invest.com/podcast/big-ideas-monday-mini-digital-wallets/?ref=s3t.org).
💡
Paying Members learn how Close Loop Digital Wallets work and how they compete with crypto wallets. You can [sign up today to start your 30-day free trial](https://www.s3t.org/#/portal/signup)!
---
## Crypto Stumblers
Some players see falling fortunes while others are continuing to grow.
- **Filecoin** is receiving criticism for its [steep learning curve, costs, financing and other factors](https://www.cryptovantage.com/buying-crypto/filecoin/?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=The%20main%20disadvantages%20of%20FIlecoin,not%20easy%20on%20their%20website.) has emerged [amid competition with Arweave](https://beincrypto.com/decentralized-storage-wars-filecoin-vs-arweave/?ref=s3t.org#:~:text=Filecoin%20has%20faced%20criticisms%20for,in%20retrieving%20their%20stored%20files.). Neither company appears to have articulated how peer to peer storage across decentralized (and inconsistently managed) nodes would provide safe storage for regulated or mission critical data. Filecoin [did layoffs in Feb 2023](https://cryptoslate.com/filecoins-protocol-labs-lays-off-one-fifth-of-staff/?ref=s3t.org).
- **Uniswap is losing its luster,** due to complexity and [tendency to lose money in spite of promised high yields](https://hackernoon.com/half-of-uniswap-v3-users-lose-money-heres-why?ref=s3t.org). Uniswaps original value proposition may be falling into question, as Ethereum expands its capabilities, and new entrants like the Canton Network start to further subdivide the total addressable market (potentially removing some of the most lucrative customers).
###
---
Birria - Photo by [Diego Lozano](https://unsplash.com/@diegonacho?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## 🍱 Sensible Ideas: Birria
*I am blessed to be part of a family that knows their way around the kitchen and the campfire. So each week I share what I call "sensible ideas" for good times and good food!*
A relative newcomer to the popular Mexican food scene, Birria is fast becoming the new slow-cooked culinary favorite on both sides of the border and actually has a history dating back to the 16th century. [Originating in the town of Cocula](https://www.vallartaeats.com/birria-origins/?ref=s3t.org), nestled in the heart of Jalisco, Mexico, Birria was an innovation of indigenous chefs adapting European spices and meats to their own taste preferences and traditions. The result is a captivating adobo dipping sauce topped with white onion, cilantro and lime - that begs for homemade tortillas.
Below is one of many small Birrierias we saw and/or dined at during our last trip to Mexico.
Food & Wine has a [recipe](https://www.foodandwine.com/recipes/birria-tacos?ref=s3t.org) (you'll need about 9 hours). The Left Bank Butchery sells ready-made Birria for your next taco night.
[The Hype of Birria Tacos - BUnow.comTaking over the food scene of social media is the famous Mexican street dish, Birria…BUnow.comCarly Busfield](https://bunow.com/the-hype-of-birria-tacos/?ref=s3t.org)
---
Photo by [Caresse Vera](https://unsplash.com/@caresseveraopc?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
###
## 🌄 Nature Notes: Shared Habitat
*How to increase your appreciation of the treasures of the natural world, and nurture its capabilities.*
### A Haven in the Trees
A new BBC piece [uncovers the fascinating story of Druid Heights](https://www.bbc.com/travel/article/20230620-druid-heights-the-us-hidden-lgbtq-community?ref=s3t.org) a little-known counterculture and LGBTQ+ community that once thrived in a canyon forest of Redwoods not far from the John Muir Woods.
From the 1954 to 1977, [Druid Heights was a haven for multiple counterculture movements](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Druid%5FHeights?ref=s3t.org), and a gathering place for people who made deep contributions to art, social understanding, and environmentalism. The community built a number of remarkable low-impact living structures.
[The Goddess Meditation Hut](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Druid%5FHeights?ref=s3t.org#/media/File:Druid%5FHeights%5F-%5FA%5Ftrip%5Fdown%5Fmemory%5Flane%5F%2819825809751%29.jpg)
[Alan Watts observed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Druid%5FHeights?ref=s3t.org) that Druid Heights through "imagination and muscle" became a paradise that "has as what people who are only rich find so frustrating because you cannot buy it with money."
The area is now under the care of the National Park Service which doesn't offer official park access due to numbers of abandoned houses and structures that are unstable and slowly returning to nature. But you can see site by [hiking the Dias Ridge Trail](https://www.parksconservancy.org/activities/hikes/dias-ridge-and-redwood-creek-watershed-loop-hike?ref=s3t.org).
### Shared Habitat
The story of Druid Heights offers a vision of what is possible by embracing the concept of Shared Habitat - an ethic and a way of thinking about humans and nature thriving together.
- We humans - wherever we are - should remember we are living in a *shared habitat* with the rest of the biodiversity of nature.
- This *shared habitat* should be nurtured in a way that sustains both our families and the families of all other living things.
- Communities who choose to live in this model create inspiration and enduring value that transcends the short-sighted economic models of their time.
Gary Snyder, the poet laurate of Deep Ecology, who frequented Druid Hills, wrote one of my favorite quotes:
*"Nature is not a place to visit. It is home."*
This so precisely sums up the ethic of Shared Habitat. If we ever wanted to get economics right, this would be the starting point. The creative change leaders and challengers of the status quo who lived and worked among the Redwoods at Druid Heights were on to something that we should all try to learn more about.
Photo by [Lukasz Szmigiel](https://unsplash.com/@szmigieldesign?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
---
## 💬 Final Note
Thank you for reading and sharing S3T!
August 21 will mark the 2 year anniversary of the first edition of S3T. That’s right! The first edition of S3T - one of four pilot issues - was published on August 21, 2021.
As we approach this milestone, I am percolating some very exciting ideas about how to take S3T to the next level. But I’d be remiss if I didn’t solicit and take input from you all. You have made S3T what it is so far and you need to have a voice in defining what the next level means.
So I hope you will take a few moments to send me a note at [ralph@ralphperrine.com](mailto:ralph@ralphperrine.com) or via LinkedIn or Twitter to share your thoughts. What I’d specifically like to hear:
- **What change leadership projects are you working on, and what would be most impactful to helping you be successful?** This could be broader than just features in a newsletter. Are there ways that the combined S3T community could help? Are there events or initiatives you’d like to see? Are there ideas we haven’t even considered that you think we should think about?
- **When do you prefer to read S3T** (Sunday, Monday? Some other day?)
- **Which features do you *need* the most - or more of?** (which ones do you consider important for your learning goals, business priorities or career path? )
- **Which features do you *enjoy* the most?** (these might not be critical for business/work but just intriguing or fun for you)
- **Are there 1-2 things you’d change or improve?**
- **Are there 1-2 things you hope never changes?**
After all this is a newsletter about change. So what kind of a change leadership newsletter would we be if we ourselves weren’t willing to change :)
I’m excited. I look forward to hearing from you.
Ralph
### S3T June 25 - Coup-Feud, Income vs Inflation, BIS Blueprint, Closed Loop Digital Wallets, Druid Heights, Shared Habitat, Birria
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-sunday-june-25/
Last updated: 2023-06-24T21:22:29.000Z
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T Friday, June 23 - Building and Sustaining Effective Coalitions
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-friday-june-23-coalition-building/
Last updated: 2024-03-10T01:10:42.000Z
*🔊* [Listen to this Newsletter on the S3T Podcast.](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org)
## Background
We have progressed through a three-part course on change leadership skills,
- Part 1: Change at the Individual Level: Skills that increase your personal effectiveness and readiness to lead change,
- Part 2: Change at the Organizational Level: Change leadership skills needed to drive change at team or organization levels.
- Part 3: Change at the Macro Level: driving a large-scale change that will have an impact at an industry or national level.
Today we're focusing on a macro-level change leadership skill that is vital for anyone who wants to help drive change at the industry or national level: *building and maintaining effective coalitions.*
Large-scale changes usually cannot be achieved by a single person or group. They usually require the combined resources and support of *a coalition of multiple groups*.
Photo by [Joel Muniz](https://unsplash.com/@jmuniz?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Introduction
If you ever marched or attended a rally, played a role in a community project, or worked at a non-profit, you more than likely were part of a coalition. At some point in your change leadership journey, you will likely need to be part of an effort to design, build and sustain a coalition.
Coalitions can serve a variety of purposes:
- Drive industry-wide adoption of new technologies or data standards
- Improve population health and financial stability
- Establish better policies and laws
- Intervene and resolve critical community issues
- Address threats to environmental resources and capabilities
- Achieve education and career readiness objectives
There is a rich diversity of information about building and operating coalitions, reflecting the many different forms that coalitions can take. They can be large or small, formal or informal, simple or complex. When crafted and managed appropriately they can be highly effective.
So to help you on your journey, I've researched real-world coalitions and curated some of the best examples and guides that are most likely to offer value for your work. I looked for coalitions with track records of success, and clear actionable lessons for other coalition builders. Let's set the stage by making sure we're clear about the key benefits that coalitions provide. They fall into two categories as described in the next section.
Photo by [Ben Duchac](https://unsplash.com/es/@benshares?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Benefits of Coalitions
### Coalitions Multiply Resources and Impact
Coalitions have accomplished amazing things that no single entity could have done single-handedly. Coalitions enable a set of benefits that help a set of teams or organizations multiply their impact:
- Share insights, lessons learned, reduce trial and error
- Amplify key messages and gain visibility
- Pool your capabilities and reduce duplicative work or competition for scarce resources.
- Increase your reach and range of options
### Coalitions create connections that help overcome resistance
When coalitions establish direct connections with multiple stakeholders, it reduces the likelihood of being blocked by an opposing group. This can benefit coalitions large or small. Here is a simple example from a frequent pattern in initiatives that introduce new technologies or processes:
- A team implementing a newer, more cost-effective capability runs into opposition from a group claiming that the new capability won’t comply with the required standards.
- The opposing group’s underlying concern had nothing to do with standards: they feared being displaced by the new capability.
- Because the implementation team was already working directly with the standards-setting entity, the resistance proved ineffective.
There is a related point here: connect directly with the responsible owners of a function, and do not allow yourself (or your team) to be disintermediated from them by another party claiming to speak on their behalf. This is a deeper topic, but worth mentioning here.
### A Remarkable Case Study: Omaha 360
Omaha has significantly reduced gun violence, homicides, and police complaints thanks to Omaha 360 a collaborative effort that brings local government and community stakeholders together on a regular basis to listen, share updates, and decide what issues to focus on in the next 7-10 days. This [profile shares an overview](https://abcnews.go.com/US/omaha-nebraska-cut-gun-violence-half-become-model/story?id=96799185&utm%5Fsource=pocket-newtab) of the working processes, and this [Omaha 360 web page has contact information](https://empoweromaha.com/omaha-360/?ref=s3t.org).
Boston, Kansas City other others are launching efforts based on the Omaha 360 model. Their approach reminds me of Agile "Stand-Up meetings" where a software team comes together to share progress and set the focus for the next sprint or time period. This same practice is useful for coordinating the day-to-day work of coalitions.
## How to make coalitions effective
Here is a curated set of best practices drawn from the top resources and guides for building and sustaining real-world coalitions that effectively lead change.
### Have a clear goal for the coalition
Be clear about what the coalition will accomplish. Gemma Mortensen of [Crisis Action](https://crisisaction.org/?ref=s3t.org) recommends [developing a simple "theory of change"](https://ssir.org/articles/entry/10%5Fthings%5Fyou%5Fneed%5Fto%5Fbuild%5Fclever%5Fcoalitions?ref=s3t.org) in the form of an x+y=z equation.
Mortensen shared a specific example from her work in the Central African Republic: Crisis Action formed a coalition with community faith leaders to gather evidence of genocide risk in order to get the attention of the UN. The equation in this case was:
*evidence + media attention = getting on the agenda of a key UN meeting*
Structuring the goal in a simple manner can help all participants have a clear understanding of the goal and their role in achieving the goal. Remember, coalitions are often comprised of very different groups, with different levels or types of educational backgrounds, cultures, and communication styles. Clear simple communication increases unity and impact.
### Create win-wins
Partners in a coalition are more likely to achieve their goals if they can find ways to complement and support each other, instead of imposing on or competing with each other. [The Prevention Institute shared an example](https://www.countyhealthrankings.org/sites/default/files/media/document/eightstep.pdf?ref=s3t.org) of how two coalition members found ways to amplify the coalition message without creating duplicative or conflicting communication efforts:
*"IPC did not publish a newsletter because doing so might reduce the subscriptions to the newsletter of the Safe Toys Association. Instead, IPC members wrote a monthly column in the Safe Toys newsletter and encouraged people interested in the IPC to subscribe"*
### Communicate the key objectives and results
In today's world of negative headlines, people yearn to see *something* get better. Some kind of positive outcome. This is critical to building and sustaining momentum in a coalition. In addition, people who are devoting time to a coalition need to know the status: how are we doing? Are we making progress? Is there something to celebrate? or something to put more effort into?
One of my favorite examples of sharing status and results is [Impact Tulsa's Data Dashboard](https://www.impacttulsa.org/data-dashboard/?ref=s3t.org). The dashboard does two important things:
- Defines the metrics and goals everyone is working toward
- Shows in a data-driven way their progress toward those goals.
As shown below, the dashboard shares continuously updated indicators on how the Coalition partners are improving what they call the "Cradle to Career Outcomes" of the Tulsa Region.
Sample from [ImpactTulsa Data Dashboard](https://www.impacttulsa.org/data-dashboard/?ref=s3t.org)
### Write a playbook that helps you sustain and navigate change
The nonprofit organization Rails to Trails has published a particularly well-crafted [Coalition building playbook](https://www.railstotrails.org/our-work/trailnation/playbook/coalition-building/?ref=s3t.org) that includes a section titled "Sustaining a Coalition." The playbook gives the entire coalition guidance on how to do things to ensure success.
Coalitions have to last through economic and political cycles as well as the changes that come through the different stages of the endeavor. As a coalition grows in scale and new participants join, a playbook helps ensure consistent operations and helps new participants get up to speed and participate effectively.
Photo by [Vonecia Carswell](https://unsplash.com/@voneciacarswell?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Summary
You've just gained some new actionable insight on how to drive change at a large scale. In your journey to create meaningful impact, sooner or later you'll encounter a scenario that requires a coalition. Coalitions can help teams and organizations multiply their influence, drive needed changes and leave a lasting impact on communities and the world.
I want to thank you again for the work you are doing and for taking the time to learn how to enhance your change leadership skills and knowledge. *Think about a change you want to lead and ask yourself, what kind of coalition could I start building to help me drive that change?*
Have a great weekend!
PS. I've included below a list of resources for digging deeper and learning more.
---
##
## References and Recommended Reading
**Mapping out the characteristics of opposing groups in order to find common ground:** [*Networks of Collective Action*](https://www.abebooks.com/book-search/title/networks-of-collective-action-a-perspective-on-community-influence-systems/?ref=s3t.org) by Edward Laumann and Franz Pappi. Academic Press 1976\. This book shares the results of an in-depth study of influence structures and decision-making in a West German town. The researchers distilled their real-world observations into a number of highly valuable insights, including a drawing method (see chapters 7-8) that maps different community members out on a circular chart marked with "fault lines" denoting the opposition of different groups over individual issues. Groups that were more connected and influential were placed near the center of the circle while groups that were more isolated and less influential were out near the edge. The drawings were instrumental in identifying ways to build consensus and gain agreement on key issues.
**For high stakes high-risk scenarios:** [10 Things You Need to Build Clever Coalitions](https://ssir.org/articles/entry/10%5Fthings%5Fyou%5Fneed%5Fto%5Fbuild%5Fclever%5Fcoalitions?ref=s3t.org) \- Standford Social Innovation Review by Gemma Mortensen 2017\. Key lessons from international work protecting civilians caught in war zones.
**Building coalitions to meet community health goals:** [A Coalition Building Primer](https://www.orau.gov/hsc/cdcynergy30/ba/Content/activeinformation/resources/Coalition%5FBuilding%5FPrimer.pdf?ref=s3t.org) (PDF) by the [Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education](https://orise.orau.gov/about/index.html?ref=s3t.org). An in-depth guide for building coalitions to achieve health outcomes goals at a state level.
**Preventing Coalition Failure and Maximizing Success:** [Developing Effective Coalitions: An Eight Step Guide](https://www.countyhealthrankings.org/sites/default/files/media/document/eightstep.pdf?ref=s3t.org) (PDF) by Larry Cohen, Nancy Baer, Pam Satterwhite 2002\. The authors start with a keen awareness of what makes so many coalitions underperform (trust issues, turf wars, and more) and provide recommended approaches to ensure effectiveness. Focuses specifically on community prevention, but is applicable to a broader range of coalitions.
**Best Playbook for Building and Sustaining a Coalition:** [Rails to Trails Coalition Building Playbook](https://www.railstotrails.org/our-work/trailnation/playbook/coalition-building/?ref=s3t.org) \- probably the most thorough and polished coalition-building guide I've seen so far. Focused on building coalitions that navigate and overcome the myriad challenges associated with building networks of trails on unused railroad beds. If you have limited time, check out the section on Sustaining a Coalition.
### Sunday, June 18: Father's Day Edition: Beans, innovation, Prometheum, Genetic data, De-listing, Spring, Pasta...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/sunday-june-18-fathers-day-edition/
Last updated: 2023-06-18T21:22:48.000Z
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T - Sunday, June 11, 2023 - Cross Border Climate Events, Be Vague then Sue, AI vs Humanity, Brazil, Wolves, Epazote...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-sun-jun-11/
Last updated: 2023-06-16T02:05:17.000Z
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### 3 things that prevent people from building a daily planning habit.
URL: https://www.s3t.org/daily-planning-habit/
Last updated: 2023-06-11T03:09:49.000Z
*Most people don't get the most out of their day because of 3 common challenges. Here's how to overcome them.*
## Target State
Last week we talked about **5 building blocks you can use to establish the planning habits that will help you achieve your goals in 2023.** I hope you have had a chance to try them out and are starting to learn what works best for you, and what helps you get set for success each day and each week.
Here's what you want to be experiencing as you build your planning habits.
1. It happens: you do it - in the cadence that you intend (daily, every other day, weekly etc).
2. It's becoming a natural part of your life.
3. You're seeing *and feeling* the benefits: You feel like the important things are getting done more consistently. You're not feeling as swamped. You feel like you have time for yourself, your family and your work.
This is what you want, and hopefully this is what you're starting to experience.
**BUT if you're not, its ok. Its very normal to have some fits and starts in making this work**.
Here are the common challenges people often face when they set out to establish regular planning habits, AND proven tips for overcoming these challenges.
### Challenge 1: Can't find the time
This is a common one. Many people say or think something like this: "*I'd LOVE to have a well-planned life, but if you just knew what my life was like, you'd know why I can't plan out my day."* If that sounds familiar, here are 2 things to examine:
1. Your core beliefs: Do you believe you're supposed to have a well-planned functional life, or do you think you don't deserve that? Sometimes change doesn't happen because we have deep-seated notions like "*this is not in the cards for me*" or "*I'm just not the kind of person who can do this*" or "*I don't deserve it.*" When you surface these thoughts, it's easy to recognize how silly they are and replace them with more productive useful thinking. Left buried and unchecked, these kinds of thoughts can be surprisingly influential in sabotaging our success.
2. Your scheduling: It's easy to fall into a cycle of going to bed too late, waking up too late and starting the day in a mad dash, where our highest purpose in life is to just not be late to the first meeting. To get ahead of this, try doing a short planning activity at *the end* of your work day, to get you set up for the next morning. Or try getting to bed early, and getting up early. Different things work for different people. **Never start the day in reactive mode.**
Think about your day: **when in the day are you at your most alert, energized and clear-minded? That's probably your best time for good planning.** And remember, this doesn't have be a long drawn-out process. Some days my planning process gets done in all of about 10 minutes. Other days it takes longer.
### Challenge 2: Consistency for the first few days, then it fades
If you *were* doing it, but now finding it hard *keep on doing it* after the first few days, here are a couple of things to examine:
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T Friday - How to help yourself and others with tough decisions
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-friday-making-decisions/
Last updated: 2023-06-09T11:30:31.000Z
*Happy Friday!*
We've spent the last several weeks sharpening 2 sets of change leadership skills:
- 1\. change leadership skills that are important to develop on a personal level.
- 2\. change leadership skills that are needed on a team and organizational level.
We’re now transitioning to the 3rd set of change leadership skills: The change leadership skills you use to help **drive change on an industry level.**
As we do, we will start by learning about a skill that is often needed both at the organizational level and the industry level: The challenge of driving decisions. Asking for and getting the decisions required to enable the change you are trying to achieve.
*So for all of you who've been learning with us over the past weeks, Congratulations! You've learned 2 of the 3 sets of change leadership skills you need to drive change.*
Photo by [Javier Allegue Barros](https://unsplash.com/@soymeraki?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### Helping others make tough decisions
As a change leader, you will personally have to make tough decisions. However, you will very frequently face situations where you must urge *other* decision-makers to make tough decisions.
When asking a decision-maker to make a decision, there are 2 realities to recognize
1. This decision-maker forms a link between you and a set of impacted stakeholders.
2. The decision-maker very likely has to follow a decision-making process designed to give those stakeholders a voice in decisions. (See Further Reading: Decision Processes below)
What you may be advocating for can often be something that gives impacted stakeholders deep concern, which, in turn, can make the decision-maker feel hesitant.
It's one thing for you to confront your own anxieties in order to make a decision. But what about when you are working with other decision-makers who face their own anxieties about a decision that will challenge the status quo?
Getting louder and faster with statistics and arguments won't help in these cases, especially when a decision-maker already feels torn, anxious, or mentally exhausted.
So what will help?
### Effective empathy enables decisions
Empathy plays a vital role when partnering and influencing decision-makers: you want to be aware of what they are feeling and thinking as much as possible. Put yourself in your partners' shoes.
When facing a decision that may not sit well with everyone or will result in uncomfortable changes, it's natural for decision-makers to think of worst-case scenarios. This is especially true of highly-competitive or socially-attuned leaders who have learned to be very aware of the perceptions of peers and superiors.
When you lay out your case for making the decision, **you can increase your chances of being heard by being aware** of the following common concerns:
1. What if we miss a huge opportunity or key piece of information *by committing to a decision too early?*
2. Will this decision have negative consequences or side effects *that we didn't foresee?*
3. What will my peers/boss think of me if I back the wrong decision? *Could this reduce my credibility in their eyes?*
4. What is the decision process I have to follow, and will it be worth the time and effort? (See Further Reading: Decision Processes below).
When advocating for an important decision, it's helpful to use language that specifically addresses these concerns. And your language will have more impact if it comes from the heart - and from a true intent to be a partner with them through all stages of this difficult decision. **When advocating for change, you need to show up as a partner, not as an attacker.** A partner committed to being present and engaged not just at the point where the decision is being made, but after the decision has been made and its time to follow through, execute, manage risk and get to the desired outcome.
### Standing at the Precipice: Making the Decision
When decision-makers hesitate at the point of decision they are most likely - even if they don't directly express it - thinking about the worst-case scenario. So you want to help them see things differently by highlighting the *positive* impacts a decision could have for them and their stakeholders.
For example, you may want to discuss:
- Previous successes and benefits to stakeholders that resulted from capitalizing on unexpected opportunities.
- How sometimes, growth and innovation are only possible by stepping outside of a comfort zone.
- Why long-term benefits will come even if there are challenges on the road to getting there.
- Why making a timely decision often has better outcomes than delaying.
Again remember that this is not just about one person. This is usually about a set of stakeholders. If your persuasion and proposal addresses the concerns of the stakeholders, you're more likely to get the decision that's needed.
### Once you've obtained the desired decision
Once the decision has been made, it's time to stop thinking about if the decision was right or wrong. Instead of entertaining discussions of if the decision was right or wrong, you can redirect any lingering anxieties your partners may feel by asking, "How can we make this path the most successful it can be?"
Decisions, at their core, are investments. When you make a decision, you commit to investing focus, time, energy, and money into a specific path. **The success of that investment depends as much on the sustained follow-through and partnership as on the initial due diligence.**
We make decisions because we need to be focused. Making no decision and staying stuck in an unfocused phase can be worse than making a less-than-perfect decision. Where you end up is not dictated by where you started. Follow through can be a powerful saving grace.
### What You've Just Learned
As a change leader, you will face cases where you need to advocate for a decision. For the decision-maker you're working with, it may not be an easy decision. They may feel torn between what you're proposing and what they know about the likely impacts, and the reactions of some stakeholders.
You've just learned how to use effective empathy and a partnership mindset to work effectively with decision-makers; acknowledging the concerns that decision-makers feel, and encouraging them to proceed with a decision even though they may feel very anxious. You now have the tools to help drive difficult decisions that challenge the status quo but lead to better outcomes.
### Further Reading
- **Decision Rules and Processes:** In large-scale industry or government contexts, taking the time to understand how decisions get made can increase your success. See HBR [*These Strategies Will Help You Influence How Decisions Get Made*](https://hbr.org/2021/11/these-strategies-will-help-you-influence-how-decisions-get-made?ref=s3t.org)
---
Thank you for taking the time to learn about change leadership, the most vital skill of the 21st century! Have a great weekend.
**P.S. Get ready for another great Sunday Edition with the top insights and key developments of the week. Where will you read and think this weekend?**
Photo by [Simon Berger](https://unsplash.com/@8moments?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### S3T Sun June 4 - Wheelchair progress! Jobs, Real estate shift, Econ drama, BTC Inflation Narrative 2.0, Potato Pizza...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-sun-june-4/
Last updated: 2023-12-01T06:23:48.000Z
*🔊 For Everyone:* [*Listen on the S3T Podcast* ](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org)
*💎 For Paid Memberships:* [*S3T Full Access*](https://www.s3t.org/full/) *\- a curated, continously updated library of strategy and leadership materials for those who want to boost their effectiveness even further.*
---
"Fly in your own wheelchair" design to be shown at Aircraft Interiors Expo this week!
## 🌏 Change Leadership: Update on wheelchairs and airlines
A few weeks ago we had a [fascinating interview ](https://www.s3t.org/flying-wheelchairs/)with S3T member **Dan Dorzsynski** about what it's like to fly as a person who depends on a wheelchair.
**Dan has just shared a hot update:**
**This coming week at the** [**Aircraft Interiors Expo**](https://www.aircraftinteriorsexpo.com/?ref=s3t.org) **in Hamburg Germany,** [**Delta Flight Products**](https://deltatechops.com/flight-products/?ref=s3t.org) **and** [**Air4All**](https://air4all.net/?ref=s3t.org) **will exhibit a seat concept that allows wheelchair users to remain in their own wheelchairs when they fly!**
Just getting to the point of having a working model - something more than just a computer rendering - has been a long time coming and a journey that has often been very discouraging (for a glimpse of decades of airline excuse-making and requests for exceptions, and frankly shameful collusion of federal agencies, [go here to peruse over 1600 examples](https://www.regulations.gov/search?agencyIds=FAA%2CDOT&filter=wheelchair%20aircraft&ref=s3t.org)).
I had a chance to chat briefly with Christopher Wood of [Air4All](https://air4all.net/?ref=s3t.org) as he was preparing for the Expo. Chris's take:
“*An innovation like this in air travel provides those who use Power Wheelchairs a safe, dignified and a true passenger experience.*"
It's been a journey that has often been discouraging, Chris noted:
"*If you look at the statistics in accessible air travel it’s disheartening... if you look at the people it brings hope for change. Let’s harness that aspiration for change.*”
I asked Chris what could we do that would be most helpful. His ask:
"*I need the people/community to share this news all over social media and beyond - keeping the momentum is crucial.*"
So to help with that, here are some tips and text samples you can use right now:
### Actions You Can Take To Help
**Action #1:** Send this text (or a version of your own) to your elected representatives and ask them to make this a priority. You can also consider [filing a complaint with the FAA](https://www.transportation.gov/airconsumer/file-consumer-complaint?ref=s3t.org).
💡
Please make it a priority to enable people who depend on wheelchairs to remain in their own wheelchairs when they fly. For context on why this matters, please review this [S3T photo-documentary and interview](https://www.s3t.org/flying-wheelchairs/) about the indignities and unsafe conditions endured every day by airline passengers who depend on wheelchairs.
**Action #2:** Reach out to anyone you know from Delta and thank them for making this a priority.
💡
Just saw that [Delta is working with Air4All](https://runwaygirlnetwork.com/2023/06/delta-flight-products-air4all/?fbclid=IwAR2X%5FAaMYeft-BcOxESwCK99nLxZhxAzMKaDYHQdcjwGaD3vPSQZXwe-YFY&ref=s3t.org) to allow passengers to remain in their own wheelchairs when they fly. I want you to know that this matters to me, and I appreciate Delta being a change leader on this issue.
**Action #3:** Post one of the following (or something like it in your own words) on your social media:
💡
I applaud Delta for being a change leader on this issue #flywithdignity #wheelchairtravel #Delta
💡
I will prefer Delta from now on if they are the first to do this. #flywithdignity #wheelchairtravel #Delta
For too long the airline industry has engaged in an ableist misbehavior assuming that certain people didn't deserve to fly with dignity. Thanks to the efforts of many individual change leaders, finally one airline is committing to doing the right thing.
You cannot imagine how exciting this is for all of the individuals who have been pushing for this *for years*. Let's keep pushing for this together. **Thank you for your efforts!**
---
Photo by [Robert Thiemann](https://unsplash.com/@rthiemann?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## 📈 📉 Macro / Headlines / Trends
### New job openings way up
Employers added [surprisingly more jobs than expected](https://www.investopedia.com/employers-add-339000-jobs-may-2023-7507521?ref=s3t.org) in May (339K), with the total number of job openings [now passing 10 million](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm?ref=s3t.org). This is the[ 29th straight month of positive job growth](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/02/jobs-report-may-2023-.html?ref=s3t.org). All eyes are now on the June 13 Inflation Report and the strong jobs report prompts some to expect more interest rate hikes.
Senate [approves debt ceiling bill](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/01/debt-ceiling-bill-updates.html?ref=s3t.org) which may be helping spawn Inflation Narrative 2.0 for Bitcoin (See Mavericks below more details)
### Real Estate shifts
The chart below, created by Joey Politano from Zillow price data shows a trend of West-coast home prices falling.
This is a single point in time snapshot, looking back on the past 12 months. From here forward a lot could change, but it so far coincides with the **declining attractiveness of the West** in part due to its climate change impacts and water supply issues.
As discussed in the [Sept 4 2022 Edition of S3T (see Water Innovation](www.s3t.org/s3t-sept-4/)) there has been a long trend of people moving from the North to the South and particularly the Southwest. Cost of living pressures have started to reverse that trend, and climate change and water supply issues could reinforce that trend over the next 10 years or more. Related: [State Farm and other insurers are refusing to provide coverage in California](https://www.eenews.net/articles/calif-scared-off-its-biggest-insurer-more-could-follow/?ref=s3t.org).
Joey Politano: "[West-coast home prices are falling](https://twitter.com/JosephPolitano/status/1663522841373941760?ref=s3t.org)"
---
## 2023 Economic Drama: Why 2020's Inflation is Different
The sources of inflation today are different that what traditional economics - with its roots in the 19th-century industrial era - expects or understands.
- Economies when powered by information systems (not just factories and railroads) can have new forms of waste (administrative processes and bureaucracies) as well as distortions that allow capital to remain misplaced for extended periods of time.
- This in turn fosters or coincides with parasitic behaviors of entrenched, privileged players who occupy protected positions as platform owners, holders of contracts or issuers of rules, regulations or fee schedules.
- This is reinforced by legacy processes and platforms which frequently extract more value than they provide, resist upgrades or retirements, and can force egregious economic distortions to persist for decades.
- Regulatory capture (or at least coziness) can also effectively blunt the effect of innovation and prevent or seriously delay the adoption of more efficient ways of working.
Together these factors can create inflationary effects that have no connection with interest rates: forcing higher costs that impact supply chains, service efficiencies, and ultimately consumers in ways that don't register on narrow inflation gauges like the CPI.
### How Mavericks think about this...
For a different angle, I want to compare and contrast how Mavericks are parsing interest rates, inflation, banking stability and the general economic drama of 2023\.
For readers a quick explanation or reminder about Mavericks vs Mainstreamers:
- **Mavericks** \- long-time crypto investors who probably experienced extreme gains from bitcoin or other crypto, see blockchain based architectures as key for the future of finance, and see themselves as not needing the traditional financial establishment.
- **Mainstreamers** \- institutional investors (think Wall St) who got into crypto much later and are very dependent on the traditional financial establishment.
So here is how crypto Maverick's Arthur Hayes interprets the current economic drama of 2023 ([long read here](https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/patience-is-beautiful), [summary here](https://twitter.com/0xjaypeg/status/1664445206748356609/photo/1?ref=s3t.org)).
I include this not as an endorsement of what Arthur Hayes says or does, but because Hayes (especially the summary version) captures the key talking points of crypto Mavericks who - unlike Mainstreamers - actually *can* imagine a world without central banks and the traditional banking system's legacy platforms and processes. Hayes deconstructs the unsustainable behaviors and flawed assumptions in the current financial system in ways that are at times colorful but do surface some uncomfortably accurate grains of truth:
- There is a delicate dance between the Fed, the US Treasury, US Banks, and Foreign entities that purchase and hold debt issued by the US Gov.
- The Government will keep printing money so this delicate dance can continue. This has risks.
- Inflation will continue to rise, regardless of what the Fed thinks or does about rates.
- And since this is a crypto Maverick, the inevitable punchline: This will boost interest in Bitcoin's price because Bitcoin is a non-correlated and non-inflationary asset.
This is not to say the Mavericks are right. Their anti-establishment rhetoric and constant predictions of Bitcoin bull markets gets old fast. The talk of a day when "it becomes necessary to dump my dollars and go all in on Bitcoin" as Hayes puts it, misses some key realities:
- If everyone went "all in" on Bitcoin, they'd probably want to use it for something,
- This would create a transaction workload the Bitcoin network is not able to carry.
Sure we could use Bitcoin for loan collateral and leverage other blockchains etc...but if you go down any one of those lines of thought, you keep bumping into the need for dollars or some kind of fiat currency just to be used in real-world transactions like buying lunch, financing college, and paying for airfares.
The experiences of the past 3 years should tell us that there is no crypto spaceship event that beams us up into an all-new perfectly functioning financial system. The existing financial system is getting rickety, yes, but the next version (or at least the candidate being put forward) is not mature enough yet. So at least for some time, I think the decentralized and the centralized financial systems will coexist *because they actually need each other. Neither side can single-handedly offer an optimized and fully functional system yet.*
### Different Kool-Aid
All that said, fresh perspectives should be welcomed. The Mavericks aren't drinking the same Kool-Aid the rest of us are, and that might eventually prove to be a good thing. They are definitely thinking outside the box in ways that could offer useful considerations for change leaders and policy-makers alike.
---
## 👾 Emerging Tech: AI Narrative and Tooling
### AI narrative continues but with ups and downs
[C3.ai stock plunged](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ai-startup-c3-ais-stock-is-down-20-after-softer-revenue-guidance-82f0bc66?ref=s3t.org), while MongoDB a lagging player in an increasingly crowded field [got a 30% price bump](https://www.thestreet.com/technology/why-mongodb-stock-surged-30-higher?ref=s3t.org) as investors linked the database-as-a-service company with AI (MongoDB not top-of-mind for many AI practitioners). Which may say something about the substance of this narrative.
### Beyond chatting
Here are new developments worth noting because they represent a move beyond the simple chat interface that ChatGPT offers, and appear to be closing the gap with real-world reasoning abilities:
- [Language Model Query Language](https://lmql.ai/?ref=s3t.org) (LMQL) - is a new programming language for interacting with Large Language Models (LLMs) that power AI capabilities like ChatGPT. The link above lets you view a set of working examples so it can see it in action.
- [LangChain](https://python.langchain.com/en/latest/index.html?ref=s3t.org) \- framework for developing apps powered by language models. The project wants to move beyond simply making requests to LLMs, to instead connecting to other sources of data and interacting with an environment. Again, moving beyond the chat-based interaction.
Also notable: [Bard](https://bard.google.com/?ref=s3t.org) now works with Visuals - Not in the way I expected. I thought it would *generate* visuals. Instead, it *finds* them. I asked for a visual that illustrates the difference between data warehouses and data lakes. It returned an image, and a comparison table and some explanatory text. When I clicked the image below, it went to [this white paper](https://www.mdpi.com/2504-2289/6/4/132?ref=s3t.org). The paper and image was created by the authors, not by Bard.
##
---
## 🍱 Sensible Ideas: Potato Pizza
*I am blessed to be part of a family that knows their way around the kitchen and the campfire. So each week I share what I call "sensible ideas" for good times and good food!*
Potatoes on Pizza? Yes, its a thing that started way back in the 18th century in working class Naples Italy ([History here](https://www.tastingtable.com/1179793/the-italian-origins-of-the-humble-potato-pizza/?ref=s3t.org), [Recipe here](https://www.pizzabien.com/blogs/news/neapolitan-baked-potato-pizza-a-fusion-of-tradition-and-innovation?ref=s3t.org)).
Another great thing can happen with Potato Pizza: Breakfast. Yes. Fry an egg and put on top of it.
Here's how I did it last Saturday! Two slices of potato pizza, fried egg, spring greens wilted in the skillet, tomatoes olives and pepper bacon. Splash of Tabasco. Delicious with coffee.
---
## 🌄 Nature Notes: Endangered or Extinct
*How to increase your appreciation of the treasures of the natural world, and nurture its capabilities.*
A new paper [*Multiple lines of evidence suggest the persistence of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker*](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ece3.10017?ref=s3t.org) (*Campephilus principalis*) shares the results of a 10-year search with thousands of hours of recordings and footage. The data suggests "intermittent but repeated presence of multiple individual birds with field marks and behaviors consistent with those of Ivory-billed Woodpeckers." The researchers believe that it is premature for the species to be declared extinct.
I reviewed the evidence presented - the imagery is typically from drone or trail cameras with less-than-ideal focus and lighting. But there are images that do appear to show Ivory-Billed Woodpeckers. But I worry that they aren't indisputable.
Having spent a good share of time outdoors in thick woods I can attest to the challenge of handling a camera with the kind of zoom lens capable of capturing an indisputable image. For every image I post online I've deleted literally hundreds of others where something went wrong: the zoom focused on a branch in front of the bird and left the bird blurred beyond recognition. Or something.
The best I can hope for is for some lucky souls someday to be in a position to capture multiple clear photos of one or two Ivory-Billed Woodpeckers from different angles and for a 2nd set of individuals to do the same on a subsequent day. That would clear it up for me and for most I suspect. Until then, this bird is suspended in the mists between endangered status and extinction.
On another note: Dreaming of your summer roadtrip? Check out these [Historic National Park Hotels](https://www.mentalfloss.com/posts/national-parks-historic-hotels?ref=s3t.org).
---
## 💬 Final Note
I'm seeking input from readers on whether you have preferences for *when the newsletter comes out*. One possible idea that has been raised is to move the entire publishing cycle to Friday (rather than part of Friday and part on Sunday) so readers would then have the *entire weekend* to read and benefit from the content. If you have preferences or ideas on this, feel free to DM me on [Twitter](https://twitter.com/RalphPerrine?ref=s3t.org) or [LinkedIn](www.linkedin.com/in/ralphperrine).
Thanks again for reading and sharing. Hope you are all S3T for a successful week! Feel free to forward this to a friend and continue the conversation on the [S3T Discord](https://discord.gg/DmFwTtss?ref=s3t.org), [Twitter](https://twitter.com/RalphPerrine?ref=s3t.org) or [LinkedIn](www.linkedin.com/in/ralphperrine).
Thank you!
Ralph
###
### S3T Fri Jun 2: Balancing accountability and empowerment
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-fri-may-4-being-an-aborber-of-risk/
Last updated: 2023-06-07T23:51:41.000Z
🔊 [Listen on Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org)
*This week we're looking at a very important aspect of change leadership: how to balance between empowerment and accountability when driving change.*
"If it saves time, blame me." "I've got your back." "This will be on me." These can be important and assuring words for teams or individuals who are driving change, leading critical transformations and innovating new and better ways of doing things.
Your team needs to know that you've got their back. But as a change leader, you also don't want to signal that results don't matter or that careless mistakes are ok. So how do you walk that line between empowerment and accountability?
### Why its good to take the blame
Did you know that when you openly accept responsibility, take accountability, and are not afraid to take the blame, it actually benefits you?
It benefits you in several ways:
- On a personal level, it's actually more empowering. If every problem is someone else's fault, and there's nothing you can do about it, that's a very unempowered place to be. If on the other hand, you are willing to say, *Maybe I could have done something better, or maybe I can do something different next time*...it puts you in a whole different mental space.
- If you are a leader, openly taking blame and responsibility sets an example for the team - being accountable and being willing to admit errors, accept responsibility and own the outcome.
- In your career, if you consistently accept accountability and are not afraid to take the blame, it puts you in the most decisive space. You're not hiding in the organizational shadows trying to avoid being a target. You're putting yourself out there, and you're testing the organization on this very very important point: Either you are supported and given the platform you need to succeed, Or you're not. You don't have to waste time finding out whether this is the right place for you or not. If you're with the wrong org, wouldn't you rather find that out as soon as possible?
### Example
I once told a boss how I'd screwed something up, and I knew it was going to cost us a lot of money. Angry, he pulled out his calculator to add up just how much it was going to cost. When he saw the total he threw the calculator across the room and said "You're costing us a lot of money!"
And he still had my back: He checked to make sure I knew where I'd gone wrong. A week later he gave me another assignment that demonstrated that he still trusted me. I didn't screw up that time.
That was how it was with him. Sometimes there were fireworks. But I always knew where I stood. I'd much rather have that kind of experience, vs one where I never know whether anyone believes in me or not.
(Side note: It's not the 90s anymore. Don't yell and throw things in the workplace. Or anywhere else.)
### Translating this to team leadership
Your team members and partners need to know that you've got their back.
Just as companies often need help managing risks (and use insurance) so individuals need a similar kind of protection. Driving change is inherently risky. It comes with uncertainty. Learning curves. Lower margin for error. And it often comes with conflict.
Being the kind of leader who says, *I know this may take a few tries to get it right and you have my support*, is a great way to empower your team.
### The Balance
Now some might say, well sure it's great to tell people they're empowered, but how do you maintain a culture of accountability?
Your team needs to know that you've got their back. But you don't want to signal that results don't matter or that careless mistakes are ok. So how do you walk that line between empowerment and accountability?
Teams need empowerment, but should not be absolved of all responsibility. What's the difference?
**The difference is what you're focused on protecting: Are you protecting yourself? or are you protecting those you are committed to serving (like your customers, your patients, etc)?**
The right way and the wrong way:
- Right: Focus on how the potential mistakes impact customers, patients, partners or other stakeholders. *"I don't want to make a mistake because I don't want something bad to happen to my customer"* Plan how to minimize the chance of negative impacts to the customers that we care so much for. This fosters care and conscientiousness. Careful thoughtful innovation. Empowerment and a sense of accountability.
- Wrong: Focus on how mistakes impact me. *"I don't want to make a mistake because I'll get blamed."* This fosters CYA, scapegoating, and other bad behaviors. Lack of accountability. It's also disempowering, and performance will suffer.
### Conclusion
As a change leader, you need to be willing to stand up and take the blame, and assure others that you've got their backs when they face uncertainties that come with change and new territory. Today you've learned how you can instill a team culture of both empowerment and accountability by always remembering: we're not here to protect ourselves, we're here to protect our customers.
Have a great weekend!
---
Photo by [NEOM](https://unsplash.com/@neom?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
**P.S. Where will you read and renew this weekend?**
### S3T Sun May 28 - Memorial Day Edition: AI Optimism & Empathy, EPIC + Microsoft, Healthcare startup struggles, Circle Reserves, Ice Cream, Fireflies
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-sun-may-28/
Last updated: 2024-08-19T13:45:08.000Z
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### May 26: 3 Tactics for Managing Current Obligations while Learning and Building Something New
URL: https://www.s3t.org/managing-time-while-learning-something-new/
Last updated: 2023-05-26T05:28:18.000Z
🔊 For Everyone: [Listen on the S3T Podcast ](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org)
💎 For Paid Memberships: [S3T Full Access](https://www.s3t.org/full/)
**Happy Friday and Happy Memorial Day weekend!**
*We've spent the last several weeks sharpening our conflict management skills because conflict is so frequently encountered when driving change - especially in a team leadership role. Today we are going to turn our attention to another challenge that you and your team will often face. This is the challenge of constantly learning new things - while managing current obligations.*
How often have you heard "We need to be continuous learners!" Everything is changing so fast, we have to be learning new things all the time. Never stop learning. Etc.
You hear a lot about continuous learning. **What we don't hear much about is how to do continuous learning while managing your current obligations.**
Most of what needs to change in the world will have to go through a thoughtfully planned sometimes complicated transition process. You won't be able to just "pull the plug" on the old stuff - as much as we might like to - and then start with the new.
It would be great to have two teams or two companies running in parallel - one focused on the old, one focused on the new. That rarely works out. Not only is it prohibitively expensive, *you actually need old and new disciplines working together.*
So most of us, most of the time, will have to drive change as a transition. In practical everyday terms, you and I will end up with one foot in both worlds in our day-to-day work. We will have commitments and obligations in current processes and platforms that must be carried out. At the same time we must be learning about and building the next version of those processes and platforms.
Key point: The way you and your team decide to handle this challenge of continuous learning will have a huge impact on the health and the eventual track record of your team. It will make the difference between frustration and burnout vs resilience and ultimate success.
So here are 3 high value tactics you need to learn for yourself and teach your teams. When you apply these 3 tactics consistently, you'll find that you can start setting and achieving more and more aggressive goals.
### Tactic #1: Keep reminding yourself you're not proficient *yet*
When you’re learning something new, be careful of overestimating your ability to complete task in some specific time box. Its so easy to be over aggressive and they will give ourselves some unrealistic timeframe to do something. We don't realize:
We can’t do this in that timeframe YET. Someday we will, but we can't right now. Not yet. This is still unfamiliar to us.
When we are too aggressive we will often spend that time in valuable learning, but because we didn't finish the unrealistic objective, we get discouraged and feel like we failed. The sound track that starts to play in our head goes something like "There must be something wrong with us. Others were able to do this, but for some reason we couldn't. Maybe this isn't for us." Those are very expensive thoughts - they make company and project budgets bigger without bringing any additional value.
### Tactic #2: Focus on consistency not results
We're conditioned to focus on results - which is great - except when we're learning.
We're better off to say in the beginning, our goal is to actually **spend consistent blocks of time** learning and working on this new stuff, rather than trying to cram an achievement by some unrealistic deadline. Instead of saying we're doing to do A, B and C in the next month/quarter etc, we should say we're going to spend regular time every day/week learning about and doing our best to go as far as we can buiding or using this new capability. The consistency will get you farther over time, than setting overly aggressive achievement goals.
### Tactic #3: Set aside time to plan out how you'll use your time.
The old saying "it takes money to make money" applies to time. "It takes time to make time". You need to set aside time at the start of each day or week to plan out how you will use the time you have to achieve what is most important to you.
The [S3T Timetracker](https://www.s3t.org/time/) helps you do this. Set precise blocks of time for managing the obligations of today while learning and building for tomorrow. Spend a few minutes each morning or weekend to plan out how you will use the time you have and make time for what's crucial. Remember ...it takes time to make time.
### Takeaways
When you embark on a change initiative, where you and your team are leading some kind of important change, you'll often be in a position of needing to work in the present while learning about and building the future. Its a tough place to be, and its very easy for talented team members to get frustrated, and start thinking very expensive thoughts like "maybe we can't actually do this".
Pay close attention to the mindset of the team: *Are we looking for the answers, or are we looking for the exits?* To help guard against this you want to use the 3 tactics you learnd today to set realistic learning pathways. These tactics will help you manage the focus, energy and time of the team so that you can be successful together at driving needed change initiatives. Manage your time so you can meet the needs of today, while laying the groundwork for meeting the needs of tomorrow. Make time for present day operational commitments. And make time for learning and building the future.
I hope you have a wonderful weekend, and make time to reflect on how you can put this into practice in the coming week!
Ralph
**P.S. Another great S3T Sunday Edition is coming - Where will you read and think this weekend?**
Photo by [Mohammad Bagher Adib Behrooz](https://unsplash.com/@adibbehrooz?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### S3T Sun May 21 - Canton, Daml, Securities Clarity Act, AI reasoning, Ledger, Meringue, Rookeries...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-may-21/
Last updated: 2023-06-07T22:27:06.000Z
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T Friday, May 19: The Upside of Wicked Problems
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-friday-may-19-the-upside-of-wicked-problems/
Last updated: 2023-05-19T05:28:36.000Z
🔊 [*Listen to this Newsletter on the S3T Podcast*](https://open.spotify.com/show/10LJ86mOvBcKyoYXswndfd?ref=s3t.org)
*Welcome to the S3T Friday Edition! Each Friday the S3T Newsletter and Podcast gives you a new capability to add to your change leadership skillset. I'm Ralph Perrine and I started S3T because I recognized that change leadership has become the most critical new skill of the 21st Century.*
Last week's newsletter and podcast introduced 6 handy ways to resolve most conflicts. Together these 6 methods give you a systematic toolkit for identifying and resolving the common disconnects behind most of the conflicts you and your team will encounter.
We also ended that segment by noting that there is one type of conflict that can be very difficult to resolve: conflicts that are caused by more than mere disconnects or misunderstandings. These kinds of conflicts are caused by *dilemmas*. These kinds of conflicts are usually tangled up in truly complex issues and most likely cannot be solved using any of the six methods we talked about last week. In fact, they can't be solved by *any* known solutions.
You can compare these two kinds of conflicts as follows:
- **Apparent Conflicts:** conflicts rooted in *disconnects* or misunderstandings. Once you illuminate the disconnect, the parties realize there really isn't a true conflict.
- **True Conflicts:** conflicts rooted in *dilemmas and multidimensional problems.*
So this week we’re going to talk about how you and your team can address conflicts that are rooted in *dilemmas*. These dilemmas pit people's interests against each other's and create entangled concerns that are hard to understand.
### What NOT to do
First a moment for self-awareness: When you find yourself in a true conflict, there will be an overwhelming temptation to *personalize* the situation - taking things personally and thinking in terms of us vs. them:
- "Why won't *they* listen to *us??"*
- *"They* are wasting *our* time!"
These are natural responses, but making a key switch can unlock success: In cases of true conflicts, you **don't focus on the people. Focus on the problem.**
Why? Directing your energy at the people involved will tend to exacerbate and reinforce the problem. Focus on attacking or changing the *problem, not on attacking and changing the people.*
**Why is it so important to focus on the problem? Because if you've tried the 6 methods of conflict resolution, and found that the conflict really relates to a true dilemma, then you are most likely facing a Wicked Problem.**
### Wicked Problems vs Tame Problems
Problems based on dilemmas (not mere disconnects) are a specific kind of problem that Horst Rittel and Melvin Webber called [Wicked Problems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wicked%5Fproblem?ref=s3t.org) in their 1973 paper. Wicked problems are problems that can't be solved via previously worked-out methods or techniques.
- A "tame" non-wicked problem: a 1000-piece jigsaw puzzle. It has a solution.
- A Wicked Problem: a 1000-piece jigsaw puzzle mixed with lead paint and set on fire.
Wicked problems are multi-dimensional and often can't be fully understood by one group or one researcher. They require us to build trust, learn new ways to collaborate, and find a way forward in spite of ambiguity and lack of textbook guidance.
The 21st century has an epidemic of Wicked Problems. Hence the need for change leadership (I highly recommend the study of Wicked Problems).
### A Pattern that Works
There are no easy frameworks or techniques, or step-by-step approaches for solving wicked problems. But there are examples of repetitive patterns that enable progress in solving or alleviating wicked problems. That pattern can be summed up here:
- Bring *everyone* together - do not leave anyone out.
- Increase the frequency of communication.
- Focus on actions that can be done in the near term: today, this week, this month.
- Meet frequently to check progress.
These 4 steps sound too simple to be true, but they can be powerfully effective.
### A real-world example
Omaha has significantly reduced gun violence, homicides, and police complaints thanks to **Omaha 360** a collaborative effort that follows this pattern. The collaboration brings all local government and community stakeholders together on a regular basis to listen, share updates, and decide what issues to focus on in the next 7-10 days.
Over the long term, these actions proved effective.
This [profile shares an overview](https://abcnews.go.com/US/omaha-nebraska-cut-gun-violence-half-become-model/story?id=96799185&utm%5Fsource=pocket-newtab) of the working processes, and this [Omaha 360 web page has contact information](https://empoweromaha.com/omaha-360/?ref=s3t.org). Boston, Kansas City other others are launching efforts based on the Omaha 360 model.
### Conclusion
In this edition we've learned about Wicked Problems and why they can be difficult and nearly impossible to solve. We also learned about an effective pattern that helps everyone better understand and engage the problem, take regular actions, then quickly regroup and check for improvement, and continue learning together.
Knowing this, you're now equipped to handle not only conflicts that are caused by disconnects, but now you are ready to deal with conflicts that are rooted in the kinds of dilemmas caused by Wicked Problems.
Conventional wisdom presumes that problems must be solved in an organized manner by people who are all thinking the same way. But real-world experience proves something different:
**When you're dealing with Wicked Problems there is an upside to the fact that everyone has a different approach and different viewpoints.** Bringing that diverse group together on a regular basis builds trust, raises awareness, and focuses a more diverse set of skills on attacking the *problem*, not the people.
Have a great weekend!
Ralph
---
Be ready for another great S3T Sunday Edition! **Where will you read, think and renew your focus this weekend?**
Photo by [Lê Tân](https://unsplash.com/@ktsfish?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### S3T Sun May 14 - Mother's Day Edition: Cost of Living, Certainty as a Service, Proof of Personhood, JOMO, Worldcoin, May Apples...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-sun-may-7/
Last updated: 2023-10-26T02:26:47.000Z
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T Fri May 12 - 6 Options for Resolving Conflicts
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-fri-may-12-conflict/
Last updated: 2023-12-28T02:54:06.000Z
*We've just spent 2 sessions talking about Resistance - dealing with resistance to change, and resisting the status quo. While these are polar opposites, both have 1 element in common. They both involve lots and lots of opportunities for conflict.*
Happy Friday everyone - today we are focusing on healthy ways to deal with conflict.
I’m going to show you a set of options that you can use to resolve most conflicts. You will probably find that you can resolve probably 90% of conflicts, even conflicts involving resistance to change by using this set of options.
###
When you encounter opposing viewpoints you always want to ask: what are these opposing viewpoints rooted in? Many times the conflicts themselves are rooted in different:
- time periods,
- contexts or
- knowledge gaps
- assumptions
all of which can actually cause people to hold opposing viewpoints *for very valid reasons*. In other words, if the situation truly was as they believe it to be, you'd agree with their position.
When you show your team how to use these options, you'll see a huge difference in progress, collaboration and forward momentum. **You can create a culture where the onset of conflict starts to evoke a very different response: instead of everyone tensing up and going into fight or flight mode, everyone takes a more relaxed, more curious mindset.** Like, ok let's see what our options are for resolving this?
This set of options will help you find agreement in almost any situation. We'll go through each option and explain how and why it works so well.
## 6 Options for Resolving Conflict
### 1\. Time-Based Resolution
You could refer to this is Phase based resolutions: recognizing that the both parties are right, in their own times. Like this:
- In this phase my version of the process etc is the correct version...this is how it’s going to work in this phase,
- But, in the next phase *your* version will be the correct version
There’s a transition. There’s a certain point in time where the version of the process or the framework or whatever will have to work the way I’m describing it. But it’s going to evolve and then the way you’ve pictured it will be the way it works then. So we agree on a time-based resolution to our conflict, and we commit to working through a transition together.
### 2\. Context-based resolution
This is often relevant for IT or specialist scenarios where people are in conflict people are talking about two different parts of a large complex system or set of organizations. They may not realize that they’re really talking about two separate parts of the system or ecosystem. Or they may be misapplying local expertise that works perfectly well in their own domain, but won't work in another domain or context.
What’s the best way to resolve disconnects this? Diagrams and pictures, even whiteboard drawings can be a huge help. Sit down and go through the details together. Expect conversations like "the (data/security/operations) model you’re talking about...yes that’s how it works in this context you're familiar with, but over here, we don’t need that because we already have this other mitigating provision." Or "Yes, it does work that way in this context, but it actually doesn’t work that way over here." Once the parties start to understand that, then there’s a moment like "OH, ok I didn’t realize that."
Key insight about Context based resolutions: In these cases, parties in conflict are often motivated by fear that a critical objective won't be met, because it appears you're not following the methods they've used in the past to successfully meet that objective. *They're worried about failing to meet the objective.* Once they realize
- you're just as concerned about meeting that objective and
- there's another proven way to meet the objective, they're more likely to be open to and willing to negotiate.
### 3\. Knowledge-based resolution
In some conflict scenarios, when you zoom in on why they disagree, you find that one party has a knowledge gap. Frequently both parties may have knowledge gaps.
Now, knowledge gaps can take several forms:
- a knowledge gap related to technical knowledge or other domains of expertise.
- a gap in knowledge about a specific cultural context,
- lack of knowledge about specific requirements or criteria.
It's important to put people at ease, establish common ground and mutual respect before attempting to educate or address knowledge gaps. Avoid impatient "we don't have time for this" vibes and fast-talking lectures. Keep in mind you may have a knowledge gap of your own. Slow down if you want to go faster.
### 4\. Synergy or Dependence
This refers to the realization that two apparently opposing options are actually compatible or interdependent. Sometimes options that appear to be mutually exclusive actually are not. Sometimes they have a beneficial synergy. Exploring and being open to this possibility can sometimes yield surprising resolutions.
### 5\. Equivalence
Sometimes what appears to be two different options, can turn out to be roughly equivalent in terms of their costs, benefits, or outcomes. In other words, the difference between one vs the other is not worth fighting about. Giving the teams or opposing parties time to do their due diligence, sometimes with guidance from a neutral party with relevant domain expertise can make all the difference.
### 6\. Trust: Clarification of Intent
Often conflicts arise when one or both parties feel slighted, insulted or threatened by a perceived intention. When a space for reflection and conversation is created, it becomes apparent that the other party never had ill intent.
This is one reason why the S3T Sunday Edition features a segment on food, drink and good times. Creating a space to have drink or meal together can foster trust. If you can get people to sit down and eat together, you can probably get them to work together. If you can get them to *cook together* \- they can probably do anything!
## To Summarize
So we've just learned 6 great options for resolving conflicts. Keeping these options in mind can help you and your team evaluate a conflict happening in your organization, and decide your best response.
Remember in most cases, conflicts are disconnects that can be resolved if you help people see:
- The different dimensions of the conflict
- The different ways in which sometimes conflicting parties are both right
Often people will come to the realization there’s not really a conflict here.
Now, there is another category of conflict we will dig into next week. These are conflicts that involve **true dilemmas**. True dilemmas usually involve complex issues with no easy answers and deeply entrenched or invested parties. There is a productive approach for dealing with true dilemmas, and we will start to learn about that next week!
*Thank you all for your dedication to learning change leadership skills, and good luck applying these lessons in your daily work.*
Ralph
### S3T Sunday May 7 Special Edition: Flying Wheelchairs - a S3T Interview with Dan Dorszynski
URL: https://www.s3t.org/flying-wheelchairs/
Last updated: 2023-06-09T02:54:05.000Z
🔊 [Listen to this interview on the S3T Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/episode/47NlMiqheTezOMGBea9VDs?si=rpOobiADRUiDfhADKjMwsg&ref=s3t.org)
*S3T is focused on developing the change leadership skills to notice what needs to be changed, and then work successfully to make that change happen!*
Today's newsletter and podcast episode features a critical issue that demands change. We'll be talking with someone directly impacted by this issue, who is one of many working to bring an urgently needed change.
## S3T Interview with Dan Dorszynski
I'm excited to share this exclusive S3T interview with Dan Dorszynski the founder of PlayaSport who is a member of S3T, an advocate for mobility rights, and a change leader in every sense of the word.
**RP:** Dan, welcome to the show. You are a very seasoned world traveler. Tell us about a few of your favorite trips.
**Dan:**Yeah I've traveled a lot, and its crazy to think about being an electric wheelchair user, and not able to do too much with my arms but still being able to head to places like Singapore, Dubai, South Africa by myself. I've done a lot of solo trips. I went to the Galapagos islands by myself. I think the most insane was a 36 hour trip to Machu Pichu I did with my cousin and a bunch of really amazing people who helped lift me in and out of planes and trains and buses to get up to the top of Machu Pichu - that was super cool. I've been to around 47 countries, about the same amount of states, and just trying to get to all the continents now.
**RP:** So very seasoned traveler. But you mentioned that when you travel you depend on your wheelchair. (Quick note for listeners: You frequently see people being pushed around in wheelchairs *in the airports*. But you've probably **never** seen a person *on a plane* sitting *in their own* wheelchair. The airlines don't allow it.) So Dan when you fly, you have to be removed from your wheelchair...what is that like?
**Dan:** So flying is very stressful for me actually. Its the only time I'm ever more than a foot away from my wheelchair, so you can imagine having this device you depend on for everything being taken away from you at the door of the airplane being pretty stressful because you don't know if it's going to make it in one piece.
RP: So you're worried that its going to get **broken?**
**Dan:** I've had it broken beyond use two times and usually I get scrapes, things will break off, I won't always file a claim because it's not worth waiting in line to file a claim for a simple scrape. But there's other times when I've had to go home with a broken chair, deal with it, try to get around. Luckily I have a backup chair I can use but its not the same chair, so everything becomes overly difficult once my regular chair is damaged. Airlines do pay for repairs, but not always right away, and if I arrive at my destination and have a broken chair and I have to deal with it *there*, that's way worse because my whole trip is encumbered by this issue.
RP: Sounds like this happens a lot, in fact this happened a couple weeks ago...you sent me a picture.
**Dan:** I had a connection in Detroit, they bring me my wheelchair, and it only drives in circles. The right wheel was literally a half an inch off the ground. This has never happened before. I didn't know what the heck to do to fix it and I spent four hours in the Delta lounge hoping that the airline mechanics they sent could figure it out, but they couldn't. So I ended up having to fly back home, file a claim and hope to get it fixed as soon as possible so I could go back and continue my trip!
RP: Wow, yeah when I travel I worry about something happening to my *luggage*, but I could still get around if my luggage got lost. I can't imagine having to constantly worry about something as important as your wheelchair.
**Dan:** And aside from the wheelchair I have been injured myself while being transferred onto the plane. Like I said they don't always have people who are strong enough to lift me. There's been a couple times when I have been dropped, fortunately very slowly, but I'll like slide out of the person's arms onto the ground and they'll have to call in more people to lift me off the ground into the chair. I've been sat on my back - on my spine - on the metal edge of my seat on my wheelchair which was probably the most unpleasant thing that has happened to me. My shoulders my arms its just - especially if someone isn't trained that's when there's the most potential for an issue. So I don't know if I worry more about my body or my wheelchair when I'm flying. I won't say it rarely goes well, but only 30-40% of the time I feel like things actually go smoothly, which to me is too low.
RP: 30% success rate...that's definitely too low and I think we've heard enough to conclude that this is unacceptable way to treat a customer. And it seems like it's a pretty basic engineering problem - like ok just figure out how to make space for a wheelchair, make sure the person stays securely in the wheelchair during the flight, and make sure the wheelchair stays anchored to the floor. Feels like a doable set of engineering problems to solve...Dan, why hasn't this been solved already?
**Dan:** One reason I feel like **they haven't put effort into solving this problem.** I recent years I've seen many creative solutions to solving this problem. One idea that comes to mind is a group that reorganized the way the closet in the front of a smaller aircraft is used so that it could be used as a closet when there is not a person in a wheelchair on the plane, but then part of the closet can be removed so there's a big enough space for a person in a wheelchair. Just optimizing the space. Its easier for people to not use the closet and put their items in overhead bins than it is for a person in a wheelchair to get on a plane at this point. There are simple solutions that make me think this problem could actually be solved in the near future, which is promising to me, but I still think its going to take a law.
RP: To your point about the front closet idea: So I was flying recently and I got on a plane - I want to say it was a 757 - maybe. And you know when you first get on the plane you come in in the first class space. I noticed that in front of the first class space directly opposite of the entrance there was a space and they had placed two seats in that space, and those seats were *very different configurations from the first class seats*. They weren’t part of the original first-class configuration. It struck me that that’s a perfect space for one or two wheelchairs.
I did some digging into what the airline's official positions. They have some well-crafted carefully worded statements that invoke safety and regulations, and basically meant so many words say they just can’t let people stay in their wheelchairs.
But what is the science around this topic. Any fact-based experimentation or findings? I mean, you know, a wheelchair with a person in it - especially if it’s an electric wheelchair - is very heavy. You definitely do not want these thing coming loose and flying around the cabin if there’s turbulence or, heaven forbid, some kind of emergency landing. So what is the science here, you know G-forces, etc. Are there some prohibitive barriers here we should be aware of?
**Dan:** You ask about the science of the debate. As far as I'm concerned that's been settled. Airlines are required to have seats that could withstand 16Gs of force. A wheelchair that is restrained by what is called the Q-straint system used in cars has been successfully tested to withstand more than 16Gs. So it's not about whether a chair could be safe on a plane. It can be. It's more about the politics and the money. The airlines are afraid that if they have to make room for a wheelchair space they're going to lose revenue. They're going to have fewer seats they can sell on the plane. But they really have yet to prove that. They haven't put a lot of energy into solutions that could avoid that. It's been left up to private groups and engineering students projects to come up with ideas. Its really been something that the airlines and the airline industry haven't focused on until recently.
What's encouraging though is that I feel like things are happening. Up until a few weeks ago I thought it was superficial: until I got a survey from Boeing - pretty indepth. They even want people to fly with Boeing employees so they can document what happens on a flight for someone in a wheelchair. There are a couple organizations working on this as well. But to this point its really been a grassroots effort.
It's funny, people say capitalism is great, and I do a agree its great, but it has its downfalls. To this point it has inhibited airline's from exploring how to accommodate people in wheelchairs in a way that's more comfortable. I mean commercial air flight has been around for a hundred years. If airlines were going to do this out of the kindness of their hearts, they would have done it already.
So I really think its going to take a law to force them to do it. There was a law required to force them to use the newer safer 16G airline seats!
It's not going to be something they're going to do by themselves. I think it's going to require an intervention.
**RP:** Dan thank you so much for taking time out of your busy schedule to help us learn about this critical issue. I also need to give a special shout out to [Michelle Tricca](https://www.michelletricca.com/?ref=s3t.org) for the set of stunning photographs that accompany the newsletter version of this S3T interview. Michelle Tricca is a portrait photographer who documented one of Dan's airline experiences with a series of poignant black and white photographs.
You'll see for yourself the experiences that Dan described during our interview: being transferred in and out of his wheelchair by airline staff. And you can't help but realize - **this is not easy or even safe for the airline workers who are forced to lift disabled individuals in and out of wheelchairs due to the airline's current policies.**
This is THE set of photographs that every airline leader, executive and board member needs to see. Look at these photographs and ask yourself, is this our best?
Which airline will be the first to demonstrate the engineering talent and change leadership skills to successfully solve this?
## What can you do?
First, I strongly recommend listening to the Podcast with Dan's interview, *while looking at the photos in this newsletter*. **Just let it sink in that every day people in wheelchairs have to endure this when they fly.**
Handy list of options for taking action on this issue in a style that works for you:
### Let others know this is an important issue
I suggest sending a link to the podcast or newsletter website with a short thoughtful note explaining in your own words why this deserves more diligence and focus.
- Share this podcast (and newsletter) with your elected representatives.
- Forward the email newsletter edition of this interview (with Michelle Tricca's photographs) to your friends and family. Encourage them to spread the word.
- If you know someone who works at an airline, [airline workers union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Aviation%5Ftrade%5Funions?ref=s3t.org) or aircraft manufacturer, share this podcast and newsletter with them, along with a word of encouragement that you hope they'll solve this, and that you appreciate their focus on this issue.
- Follow @chairsintheair on Instagram
- Contact your airlines and tell them this issue is important to you
- Share a note or tweet of thanks to Boeing (@BoeingAirplanes on Twitter) for starting a study to allow people to stay in their own wheelchairs when they fly. Contact Airbus (@Airbus) and ask them if/when they are doing a similar study. Let them both know this matters.
### Get informed and connected
- DOT Secretary [Pete Buttigieg pressures on FAA and airlines to address wheelchair issue](https://www.travelweekly.com/Travel-News/Airline-News/Buttigieg-says-airlines-should-create-wheelchair-space-on-planes?ref=s3t.org).
- National Academies report says [most airplanes could allow passengers to remain in their own wheelchairs](https://www.nationalacademies.org/news/2021/09/most-airplanes-could-accommodate-people-to-travel-seated-in-a-personal-wheelchair-but-follow-on-safety-feasibility-assessments-needed?ref=s3t.org).
- WSU has designed a [cabin configuration that allows passengers to remain in their wheelchairs](https://www.wichita.edu/about/wsunews/news/2022/04-april/fly%5Fyour%5Fown%5Fwheels%5Fsuite%5F3.php?ref=s3t.org) while in flight.
- [Skift article on yet another configuration](https://skift.com/2021/04/08/new-wheelchair-prototype-seat-promises-accessibility-for-in-flight-travel/?ref=s3t.org) allowing passengers to fly in their own wheelchairs, with additional context on the different groups working to solve this. This article points out that the air industry and the FAA both have historically been unwilling to provide serious funding for studying this issue.
---
## More from S3T
**Curated topics, tools and resources for paying members only. If you don't have Full Access: [Sign up now](https://www.s3t.org/#/portal/signup). ([Why it's worth it](https://www.s3t.org/why/))*
### 🏫 [S3T Resource Library](https://www.s3t.org/topics/)
**Curated collections of time-saving explainers and accelerators that frame key trends and issues with important context and perspectives. Some include worksheets or additional resources.*
### 🛠 [40 Best Online Tools & Resources](https://www.s3t.org/tools/)
**Top trusted online tools to save you time and $$$, as well as best online sources for emerging tech & research, economic insights, shifts, trends, history, culture & nature.*
### 🌍 [Global Economic Dashboard](https://www.s3t.org/dashboard/)
**500+ US & Intl real-time economic indicators organized by nation and release dates. Tap or click any indicator for detailed charts.*
### 🪙 [Crypto Market Caps](https://www.s3t.org/cmc/)
**Top 100 Crypto Market Prices and Indicators. Colors indicate 24hr price movement, size of boxes indicate Market Cap.*
### 💎 [3 Questions to get you ready for the coming week.](https://www.s3t.org/readyfortheweek/)
This simple exercise helps you regroup and recommit so you can learn and do more in the coming week.
---
## 💬 Final Note:
*Welcome to the new members! Thank youall again for reading and sharing. Be sure to move this email to your inbox or star it as important so you don't miss any editions!*
**Hope you are all S3T for a successful week! Feel free to forward this newsletter to a friend and continue the conversation on the [S3T Discord](https://discord.gg/DmFwTtss?ref=s3t.org), [Twitter](https://twitter.com/RalphPerrine?ref=s3t.org) or [LinkedIn](https://www.s3t.org/s3t-sun-apr-23/www.linkedin.com/in/ralphperrine). If you or someone you know haven't signed up here's [why its worth it](https://www.s3t.org/why/).*
Thank you!
Ralph
---
**Opinions mine. Not financial advice. I may hold assets discussed.*
### S3T Sun Apr 30 - India#1, Halo, Layer 2 blues, Africa, Crypto gets professional, AI coaches, High Island, French-Mex
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-sun-apr-30/
Last updated: 2023-06-07T22:27:30.000Z
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T Sun Apr 23 - Mini-Laterals, Tech Debt, Crypto hearings & mistrust, Hi Yields, Unstaking, Curry, Rivers
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-sun-apr-23/
Last updated: 2023-06-07T22:27:50.000Z
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T Sun Apr 16 - Middle Class, Uninsured Deposits, AutoGPT, LLM Thoughts, Crypto Market Cap winners, Tooth Mikes, Outdoor work...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-sun-apr-16/
Last updated: 2023-06-07T22:28:01.000Z
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### April 9 - The Easter Edition - Leashing the Economy, Binance, Medical Algorithms, Small Plates, Lemurs, Transformations...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/april-9/
Last updated: 2025-07-30T12:50:32.000Z
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T Time Tracker now has charts!
URL: https://www.s3t.org/time-tracker-with-chart/
Last updated: 2025-03-30T02:14:27.000Z
Happy Wednesday! Just a short note to let you know **the S3T Time Tracker worksheet now includes a chart to help you analyze how you spent your time!**
It has the same easy-to-use worksheet you're used to.
[Get the upgraded Time Tracker here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PjIDMncmjerCC%5FUa9ZhTQks%5FqR1uf58ilvO%5FZpLQrjE/edit?usp=sharing&ref=s3t-pronounced-set). You can use it as a template to create your own in Sheets or Excel.
[Go here for the How-To Instructions](https://www.s3t.org/welcome-timetracker/). I'll continue to share updates and ideas for getting the most out of your time.
### Let's share so others can benefit...
I'll be posting on LinkedIn and other social media to encourage others to download the S3T Time Tracker so they can make time for what's important to them. You can help by inviting others too!
### Here are 3 ready-to-go invites you can use:
I've been using the free S3T Time Tracker to find the time for what's important to me - you can sign up and download it free at www.s3t.org/time
It's amazing how much more you get done when you track and analyze your time. Tip: Go to www.s3t.org/time to sign up and download the free S3T Time Tracker.
If you want more quality time with the people and projects that are important to you, try the S3T Time Tracker. Get it free at www.s3t.org/time
Thank you for taking a few minutes to help others unlock their potential. Everyone deserves to be able to say, "I spend time with the people, projects and causes that matter to me."
That's it! Have a great day!
Ralph
### S3T Sun Apr 2 - Q1, BRICS, G7, VC Spring, GPT Bans, Bard Test, Vector DBs, Snails, Olives...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-sun-apr-2/
Last updated: 2023-06-07T22:28:45.000Z
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T Fri Mar 31 - Big & Little Picture Thinking that helps you drive change successfully
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-fri-mar-30-big-little-pictures/
Last updated: 2023-03-31T04:08:18.000Z
*Happy Friday! Welcome to your S3T Friday edition - we're continuing our series on change leadership skills that can help you and your organization have the impact you want to have.*
[Listen to this on the S3T Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/episode/4szC5ERH8k6y00Czn3Dt1E?ref=s3t.org)
Today we're going to talk about a skill you and your team can learn together that will help you drive change successfully:
**The ability to see and switch between the big picture and the little picture.** To refine this a little further: the ability to focus on one, but not lose sight of the other.
### The problem
Unfortunately most people think they are one or the other: I can be a big picture thinker, or a detailed thinker but not both. Even worse, most of us have the have a notion that one of these is legit and the other is not.
People who like to focus on the big picture dismiss detailed oriented people as small-minded, down in the weeds, lost in the details.
People who consider themselves detail-oriented and practical often dismiss strategic thinkers as dreamers, who come up with impractical ideas and want to "boil the ocean."
Both of these are forms of disrespect - not good for the team culture - and are misguided:
The truth is sometimes "small details" are actually big problems in disguise.
And if you've ever watched lava flow into the sea, you know that the ocean can boil. The history of innovation is just a series of people thinking something is impractical, then later embracing it as the new status quo, and later innovating something else that is also - at first - thought to be impossible. In every one of these innovation journeys, **success of big ideas hinges on yes, pivotal details.**
### Proactive & Precise
We need both: Big picture thinking and small picture thinking. Why?
- Big picture thinking helps you be **proactive.**
- Small detail thinking helps you be **precise**.
You need to foster a team culture that respects both.
**A team that thinks proactively and works with a precision mindset is an unstoppable force.**
### Building Big Picture *and* Detail Skills
Here's some ways you can strengthen your ability to between these contexts and helping your team learn to do the same.
1. **Read widely.** Develop a wide ranging *random* reading habit. Look at how technologies are being used in other industries. It might suggest patterns of how your industry will be using that same tech in a few years.
2\. **Ask Big Questions.** Practice asking yourself and your teams questions that prompt big-picture thinking and dot-connecting:
- "How can we gain an advantage here?"
- "What if we tried \_\_\_ ?"
- "How is this going to evolve in the next couple years?"
- "Is there an overall trend here?"
- "Are there examples from (history, legal precedent, or from your industry) that offer us a pattern to follow?"
3\. **Ask Small Questions.** Blend these with the kinds of questions that provoke *detailed* thinking:
- "What are we missing?"
- "If we tried this, what seemingly insignificant issue might turn into big problem for us?"
- "Who has the most fine-grained understanding of this (topic, tool, issue)?"
- "Have we done our homework on this...if someone double-clicks on this assertion what supporting data do we have?"
**4\. Demonstrate Respect for Big and Small contexts.** When designing or planning always be willing to read, study, talk through details. When details are discussed, lean forward in your chair. Pay attention. Thank people for pointing it out. Demonstrate that you place importance on it.
If its appropriate to suggest another time when the right people can focus on the details in depth, then do so. But it should be known that details are welcomed not shunned. They might be important.
Likewise, when big ideas, anticipated changes or dots are being connected in a conversation, pay attention, lean forward. Thank people. Show your team that this matters too.
### Why this matters SO much
The status quo is full of false tradeoffs:
- It can be secure or convenient but not both
- It can be compliant in a regulated industry or it can be fast and efficient but not both.
These false tradeoffs are examples of failure at both the detailed and the big picture level:
- Failure to sweat the details and find a way to achieve the full set of requirements.
- Failure to recognize how painful and burdensome their false tradeoff is on their customers, community or other stakeholders.
A precision mindset that can focus on the big picture without losing sight of pivotal details, and focus on the pivotal details without losing sight of the big picture will have a huge advantage when driving change. It will help you and your team gain the insights to successfully implement a needed transformation or new capability.
*These are fundamental mindset lessons - ways for you and your team to learn to think and see the world, in order to maximize your effectiveness.*
Thanks again for reading, listening and sharing. Have a great weekend!
Ralph
---
**PS. Get ready for another great S3T Sunday Edition!** We'll have more insights and indicators on the economics shaping the decisions of your customers and stakeholders, as well as emerging tech and innovation that you want to understand so you can increase your impact.
**Where will you read, reflect and think this weekend?**
Photo by [Quino Al](https://unsplash.com/@quinoal?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### S3T Sunday Edition March 26 - Hyperinflation, Sick Banks, IP laundering, Big Consulting, Lab meat, Layer 2s, Spicy Margaritas...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-sunday-edition-march-26/
Last updated: 2023-06-07T22:29:01.000Z
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T Sunday March 19 - Bank blues, Turf war, GPT4, One Medical, Fidelity crypto, Light EA, Trilemma, Irish Creme, Upskilling birds...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-sunday-march-19-2023/
Last updated: 2023-06-07T22:32:51.000Z
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T Sun Mar 12 -Bank fails, GPT for Sheets, AI Advertising, Staking, Guns solution, Mason Farm, Cooking together, 3 Questions
URL: https://www.s3t.org/march-12/
Last updated: 2024-07-04T00:19:34.000Z
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T Sun Mar 5 - EthDenver Report, Web2 UX for Web3, Intl Women's Day, Decentralization & human rights, Green chili stew, Crows
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-sun-mar-5/
Last updated: 2024-01-23T02:05:50.000Z
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T Sun Feb 26 - REAIM, Base, Convergence, Light EA, Prompt Engineers, Post-Stack Software, Nori Chips, Spring
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-sun-feb-26/
Last updated: 2023-06-07T22:29:33.000Z
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T Sun Feb 19 - BTC Bump, Web3 culling, Social media lawsuits, algo demise, DESO, De-paving, Mimolette, Compass skills...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/feb-19-2023/
Last updated: 2023-02-19T05:08:43.000Z
## 📈 📉 Macro / Headlines / Trends
Wholesale prices were [up sharply](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wholesale-inflation-surges-in-early-2023-ppi-shows-2efefb24?ref=s3t.org), joining other indicators ([used cars](https://www.barrons.com/articles/used-car-prices-inflation-rates-fed-6cb4a8d7?ref=s3t.org), [retail shopping](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/15/business/retail-sales-january-inflation.html?ref=s3t.org)) that **inflation is alive and well**. The [stock market slipped](https://money.yahoo.com/stock-market-news-live-updates-february-16-2023-122740853.html?ref=s3t.org) on the news as investors absorb expectations of [more rate hikes](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/goldman-sachs-now-expects-three-more-fed-rate-hikes-2023-2023-02-17/?ref=s3t.org), and [interest rates likely staying elevated for longer](https://www.ft.com/content/cfeb7645-d9d2-41f0-9020-7ee02226a9df?ref=s3t.org).
**Bitcoin jumped 11% this week**, sparking discussion about why. Some larger players were shorting BTC and [had their positions liquidated](https://seekingalpha.com/news/3936766-why-did-bitcoins-price-jump-up-today-short-liquidations-ramp-up?ref=s3t.org) (which boosted the price).
> What drove the face-ripping 11% Bitcoin rally on Wednesday?
>
> Taking a look at Macro, Liquidity, Stablecoin safety concerns under the lens of Bitcoin hitting a new high for this year. [https://t.co/KgpQ1K39FA](https://t.co/KgpQ1K39FA?ref=s3t.org) [pic.twitter.com/gNDzdJKCxV](https://t.co/gNDzdJKCxV?ref=s3t.org)
>
> — The Breakdown Podcast (@BreakdownNLW) [February 17, 2023](https://twitter.com/BreakdownNLW/status/1626413029268021250?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org)
As NLW explains (podcast link above) two other explanations are related:
- The "extraordinary measures" enacted to keep the government running *amount to injections of liquidity* \- freeing up funds that get invested in more risky assets like BTC.
- The Fed tightening may have driven liquidity to a cyclical low that it is starting to come off of...again freeing up funds that go to riskier assets.
If this holds true we could see continued rise in risk asset prices until the summer timeframe when the debt ceiling matter has to be resolved.
---
Photo by [Apolo Photographer](https://unsplash.com/@apolophotographer?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## "Mass-Extinction Event" for web3?
### Implications over the next year
As shared in S3T recently, respected VC Tom Loverro [tweeted about a mass extinction event](https://twitter.com/tomloverro/status/1620466827519496194?ref=s3t.org) for startups over 2023-2024, and the reason for it: easy money spawning more startups than the market could absorb, many based on unproven assumptions and unsustainable models.
Its reasonable to believe that a similar culling out is in store for web3 and crypto projects for 2 reasons:
1. Way too many *undifferentiated* contenders, most with vague value propositions. The spaghetti-on-the-wall era for crypto is over - too many projects, not enough differentiation or traction for most of them.
2. Some claim to be addressing the shortcomings of the leading projects but ignore the possibility of those leading projects might actually be improving on their flaws. A host of Layer 1 blockchains all claimed to be Ethereum killers, compelled by a belief that Ethereum was hopelessly flawed. With the Merge, the Ethereum community showed that it can execute very complicated transformations while preserving operational integrity. The value proposition of the "Ethereum killers" is unclear at this point.
Regulatory uncertainty/hostility and global economics will make survival even more challenging.
### Who survives? Whoever solves 2 problems...
I think the survivors will be the ones that are most effective at making their platforms easy and safe to use. This will do the most to buy them the good graces of regulators and bring them the mass adoption they need to survive.
Crypto and web3 projects as a rule still struggle with 3 problems:
1. They aren't easy to use. I could give example after example of non-intuitive, illogical and usually undocumented or very poorly documented procedures that you have to do in order to perform basic tasks. There aren't enough user experience experts in this space yet.
2. They are risk and error-prone. It's too easy to do something wrong and suddenly lose your money or your digital assets. It's too easy to get scammed. Or just be stuck in a loop of wasting time, trying something over and over again that apparently worked for someone at some point, but very clearly isn't working now.
3. Lack of consistent user support. Discord and online forums are littered with channels full of users asking for help with bugs and glitches, and getting no solutions. Over and over again you can retrace the same sad story: Some developer got some function to work within some narrow set of parameters, but never tested or finished it, and moved on to some other more interesting project. Now that function is part of some deceptively cheerful step-by-step instructions for "Monetizing your Content on our Web3 Platform" or "Building your first blockchain app". You try it and it doesn't work. You go to the community and post screenshots and no one in the entire world has any clue about why it's not working.
All 3 of these issues will either get solved or will they'll keep the user community (and the industry) **small**. Yes, crypto has had respectable market cap dollar amounts - but that's fair weather friends from Wall St making FOMO-based investments. If you track the *actual user bases of decentralized apps* (for example on DappRader) **they are tiny**, compared to the typical Target Market you'd expect for a successful app or digital product.
My advice to any crypto/web 3 project that wants to grow a user base large enough to still be around in 3 years: Find top notch UX designers and put them in charge. Let them design a good experience for every stakeholder: end users, developers, system operators, investors, regulators etc. The technology itself is more than capable of delivering. We just need talent focused on the right things.
---
## 🔎 Closer Examination: The Evolution of Social Media 2023 Onward
### Time ticking away for Social Media
*The industry that stole so much time from so many people is now running out of time.* *A new era for advertising is being forced into existence.*
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T Sun Feb 12 - Valentines Edition: Optimism, Lazy regulators, Ordinals, Prompters, ChainGPT, Web3's privacy problem, Semillas, Late Winter...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/feb-next/
Last updated: 2023-06-07T22:35:12.000Z
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T Sunday Feb 5 - Productivity losses, Future of housing, Aptos, Mini-ultrasound tech, Biotech arms race, Enterprise blockchain, FROG jam, Duck hybrids & gender change
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-sunday-feb-4/
Last updated: 2024-10-07T02:26:49.000Z
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T Sunday Jan 29 - Tech Workers, Debt Ceiling, BTC WallSt Splitsville, AI & Bigger Data, Omics, the Eddie, 7 Spice...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/jan-29/
Last updated: 2023-06-07T22:30:28.000Z
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T Sunday Jan 22: Davos, Friendshoring, Perplexity Scores, Capital crunch and talent, Deep dish, Magic hedge...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-sunday-jan-22/
Last updated: 2024-08-19T13:56:40.000Z
## 🗺Macro: Global Growth Outlook
This week Cryptos continued to move into higher territory (BTC hit 23K), along with equities - apparently [pushed higher by retail investors](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/retail-traders-are-buoying-the-stock-market-but-support-could-prove-fleeting-analysts-11674241924?ref=s3t.org), though its unclear how many investors will remain convinced that inflation and interest rates are just last year's bad dream. Meanwhile [recession worries linger](https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2023/01/12/recession-in-2023-signs/11029308002/?gnt-cfr=1&ref=s3t.org) for some and [home sales fell to a 12 year low](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-existing-home-sales-lowest-since-2010-price-growth-slows-2023-01-20/?ref=s3t.org).
### Davos Takeaways
The World Economic Forum's 53rd Meeting in Davos, Switzerland finished this week with economic leaders projecting a ["not great" 2.7% global economic growth](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/01/georgieva-urges-monetary-authorities-to-stay-put-despite-optimism-davos-2023/?ref=s3t.org) in the words of Kristalina Georgieva the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). "Stay in the middle of realism" she urged (not too optimistic and not too pessimistic).
For more charts like this one, see the [Chief Economists 2023 Outlook page here where you can download the entire report](https://www.weforum.org/reports/chief-economists-outlook-jan-2023?ref=s3t.org).
Key Themes from the event:
- The need for cooperation as the world navigates new economic territory.
- Climate and trade discussions surfaced tensions over [US industrial policy and its targeted incentives for companies](https://fortune.com/2023/01/18/wef-2023-davos-us-industrial-policy-climate-change/?ref=s3t.org) as well as disappointment in the [lack of urgency on climate progress](https://www.edie.net/davos-2023-who-said-what-on-climate-and-environment/?ref=s3t.org).
- The concern that deglobalization will result in **"friendshoring"** \- nations developing supply chains with friendly nations only and leaving out less advantaged nations. The term appears to have been coined by WTO's Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala in remarks about the [diverging industrial policies of US, EU and China](https://www.reuters.com/markets/davos-2023-global-trade-rethink-race-big-pockets-2023-01-19/?ref=s3t.org).
- Emerging Tech discussions - notably an [at times tense discussion about crypto regulations](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2023/01/19/no-point-to-eus-crypto-rules-unless-world-follows-suit-senior-eu-official-says/?ref=s3t.org), and another discussion about the evolution of the metaverse, with a "you heard it here first" quote (see Tweet below) about hospitals being displaced.
> That’s a wrap! [#WEF23](https://twitter.com/hashtag/WEF23?src=hash&ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org) Davos Tech Recap and a last day muse from Bernd Montag [#Metaverse](https://twitter.com/hashtag/Metaverse?src=hash&ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org) [#transformation](https://twitter.com/hashtag/transformation?src=hash&ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org) of [#medicine](https://twitter.com/hashtag/medicine?src=hash&ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org) means there may not even be [#hospitals](https://twitter.com/hashtag/hospitals?src=hash&ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org) in five years’ time Siemens Healthineers [https://t.co/kSddIQIrSG](https://t.co/kSddIQIrSG?ref=s3t.org)
>
> — Carlos F. Escobar (@CE\_IT\_Vision) [January 21, 2023](https://twitter.com/CE%5FIT%5FVision/status/1616625438616424449?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org)
Hospitals do face massive challenges and learning curves in the years ahead. Headsets and avatar worlds might somehow become part of the solution, but I'm not clear on how they would make hospitals unnecessary.
---
## 💡Strategies: Capitalizing on the Capital Crunch
### The new capital environment
It’s not just harder to get money. Getting marketshare is harder.
Why?
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T Sunday Jan 15: Macro optimism, Rethinking Inflation, Talent, Multi-cloud, Exchanges, Meta pixel, Posole, Crayfish...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-jan-15/
Last updated: 2023-01-15T06:28:53.000Z
## 🎭 Macro Mood Swings: Optimism returns
The[ Crypto Market Caps board](https://www.s3t.org/r/639563f5?m=d9ccfe01-4289-46c4-8d88-2c3a96a15f68) stayed overwhelmingly green this week, as BTC and other leading crypto values moved sharply upward. [Bitcoin moved back into the 20s](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2023/01/14/bitcoin-taps-20k-leading-as-broad-crypto-market-rally-continues/?ref=s3t.org) for the first time since Nov 2022\. Even Solana is up, partly buoyed by [supportive tweets from Ethereum lead Vitaly Buterin](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/12/30/solana-token-rebounds-off-thursday-lows-as-buterin-tweets-support/?ref=s3t.org).
Some noticed that the jump this week retraces the dump that occurred after the FTX scandal broke:
> FTX dump is fully retraced now.[$BTC](https://twitter.com/search?q=%24BTC&src=ctag&ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org) [pic.twitter.com/2TyJklMCIJ](https://t.co/2TyJklMCIJ?ref=s3t.org)
>
> — Inmortal (@inmortalcrypto) [January 14, 2023](https://twitter.com/inmortalcrypto/status/1614093063395201024?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org)
### So, all good now?
Inflows of capital to riskier assets have definitely restarted, after a year of holding cash and capital preservation, and a wave of optimism is sweeping the markets. *Why? and is it worth banking on?*
[Inflation is slowing](https://apnews.com/article/december-2022-inflation-report-72bb938a443ab0500bd72d23f62214ad?ref=s3t.org). The popular sentiment at the moment sees this as all good news, based on several questionable assumptions:
- The Fed will “have to” stop raising rates
- This means there won’t be a recession
- Things will go “back to normal”
I'm not so sure.
I think what happens next will be influenced by 2 factors - inflation measures and the talent market - which are tied together.
### Economic Driver #1: Flawed inflation measures
Some started to note last year that inflation is performing differently across multiple categories. Service inflation in particular is rising, even as goods inflation moderates ([see Dallas Fed report](https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2022/0906?ref=s3t.org)).
As reported previously in S3T, anything that requires focused human attention, care and expertise has and will continue to experience significant inflation.
This reality is not accurately reflected in the Fed inflation measures and 2% inflation target, both of which hark from an older economy that is now a subset of today's overall economy.
The cause of today's inflation is not aggregate demand, this [Roosevelt Institute report](https://rooseveltinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/RI%5FCausesofandResponsestoTodaysInflation%5FReport%5F202212.pdf?ref=s3t.org) argues, but rather "a host of microeconomic problems on the supply side (including increased exercise of market power) combined with shifts in the patterns of demand."
To have meaningful inflation controls and a more equitable distribution of gain and pain, a rethinking of inflation measures is unavoidable.
Unfortunately the Fed, [embarrassed about its "transitory inflation" blunder](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/fed-embarassed-inflation-mistake-rate-hike-outlook-inflation-stock-fall-2023-1?ref=s3t.org) appears bent on a false hope of regaining control, and appears unwilling at least in the near term to rethink inflation measures.
So this will take time (perhaps an Administration change). In the meantime expect volatility, and **uneven distribution of pain** (disproportionate impacts to lower-income households) as pointed out [here](https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2022-12-21/a-panicky-federal-reserve-is-driving-us-into-an-unnecessary-recession?ref=s3t.org) and [here](https://jacobin.com/2023/01/inflation-class-struggle-economic-policy-federal-reserve-the-dig?ref=s3t.org).
💡
*"There’s a lot of evidence that finance has a much more complicated relationship to inflation than it has had in the past.*"
\- [Tim Barker](https://jacobin.com/2023/01/inflation-class-struggle-economic-policy-federal-reserve-the-dig?ref=s3t.org)
### Economic Driver #2: The Talent Market
The recent uptick in news stories about **return-to-office mandates** ([here](https://www.hrdive.com/news/report-9-in-10-companies-will-require-return-to-office-by-2023/633055/?ref=s3t.org), [here](https://www.axios.com/2022/09/07/companies-gamble-with-new-return-to-office-mandates-rto?ref=s3t.org) and [here](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2022/09/20/bosses-are-winning-the-battle-to-get-workers-back-to-the-office/?sh=22bac272783e&ref=s3t.org)) implied that remote work was over. That's likely wishful
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T Sun Jan 8 - Economic Improvements, New Algostable, BTC Thriving, India, IVRs, GDPR knock offs, Elephant Seals...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-sun-jan-8/
Last updated: 2023-01-08T06:28:53.000Z
## 📈 📉 Macro / Headlines / Trends
### Economic Improvements but...
The economy shows [improvements in wage equality, easing healthcare costs, and post Covid job growth](https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/01/new-year-good-news-economy-health-care/672629/?ref=s3t.org). End-of-year analysis showed [record jobs growth during 2022](https://news.umich.edu/healthy-job-market-increasingly-matches-pre-pandemic-employment-patterns-u-m-economists-say/?ref=s3t.org) but a few worrisome indicators on the horizon:
- [McDonald's layoff plans for 2023](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-06/mcdonald-s-quickens-new-store-growth-while-also-cutting-jobs?ref=s3t.org) have some worried about rising unemployment in 2023\.
- The ISM United States Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) [dropped sharply in December](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us%5Fism%5Fnon%5Fmanufacturing%5Findex?ref=s3t.org) missing the forecast by almost 6 points, also down sharply from this time last year.
- China is [wrestling with the economic fallout from Covid](https://fortune.com/2022/12/31/china-reopening-zero-covid-economic-activity-falls-slowest-since-february-2020/?ref=s3t.org), and its reopening is [likely to impact supply chains worldwide.](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/29/what-chinas-earlier-reopening-means-for-markets.html?ref=s3t.org)
**📌 Track these and the top 500 US and global economic indicators in real-time at [S3T's EconDash](https://www.s3t.org/dashboard/).**
---
## Digital Assets & Currencies
*⛔️* The cleanup from the scams of 2022 continues - with [AG lawsuits](https://ag.ny.gov/press-release/2023/attorney-general-james-sues-former-ceo-celsius-cryptocurrency-platform-defrauding?ref=s3t.org) and [subpoenas issued via Twitter](https://cointelegraph.com/news/three-arrows-capital-founders-subpoenaed-on-twitter?ref=s3t.org) \- and has prompted the [Feds to issue a warning to banks about the risks of crypto](https://decrypt.co/118301/u-s-regulators-issue-crypto-warning-to-banks?ref=s3t.org). But the space continues to develop - a few examples below.
### Why Bitcoin is Thriving
Highly Recommended [podcast interview with Alyse Killeen](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/coindesk-podcast-network/id1414384043?i=1000591312238&ref=s3t.org) (Stillmark Capital) on why Killeen believes Bitcoin is thriving:
- The transparency and absence of "humans in the middle" made BTC one of the less exciting (in a good way) and more stable assets during an exceptional down market of 2022\.
- Bitcoin's potential to incentivize economic development in regions where traditional finance & capital "can't make the numbers work" and shrug their shoulders about regions languishing without basic infrastructure. For an example see [GridlessCompute.com](https://gridlesscompute.com/?ref=s3t.org) one of Killeen's ventures.
Killeen does a great job calling out the chasm between the crypto use cases of the *privileged vs non-privileged* economies of the world.
The [projects that Killeen's group is focused on](https://www.stillmark.com/about?ref=s3t.org#portfolio) illustrate what I think will be an increased focus on extending Bitcoin (and its tech) to better serve *non-privileged* users around the world. These use cases go beyond BTC as a store of value (or risky memestock), and attempt to fully unpack the implications of what Bitcoin actually is: the first known instance of a form of money NOT created by or controlled by a government.
### International Digital Currencies
Turkey [runs its first tests of its Turkish Digital Lira](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2022/12/29/turkish-central-bank-runs-first-cbdc-tests/?ref=s3t.org). This spring the Bank of Japan will conduct [a digital yen trial with several top banks in Japan](https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Currencies/Top-Japan-banks-and-BOJ-to-begin-trials-of-digital-yen-next-year?ref=s3t.org). If the trials go well, Japan could roll out a digital yen by 2026.
### Here we go again: Another Algorithmic Stable Coin
Djed is a new Cardano-based [algorithmic stablecoin that intends to be overcollateralized up to 8x and regulatory compliant](https://cointelegraph.com/news/new-cardano-algorithmic-stablecoin-evokes-old-fears-for-the-community?ref=s3t.org). This would be the first such coin in the Cardano blockchain ecosystem. The new asset is expected to go live sometime early this year, and [boost the prospects of Cardano](https://www.cnbctv18.com/cryptocurrency/explained-cardanos-upcoming-djed-stablecoin-and-how-it-works-15577901.htm?ref=s3t.org) after a very rough 2022\.
🔮 Previous editions of S3T noted that there are key motivations behind algorithmic stablecoins, and that - in spite of the Terra collapse - we would see more of them. See [S3T May 29 segment titled Why Algostables?](https://www.s3t.org/s3t-may-29/)
### The revelations of 2022
Over and over in 2022, crypto revealed who people really were. We saw cases of individuals with broad un-audited access to other people's assets losing sight of the goal of solving important problems, and instead taking illegal actions to enrich themselves.
It is encouraging to see that, at the same time, many others just stayed focused on trying to create better solutions for a healthier wealthier world.
All of which underscores a very important litmus test. Are my actions and your actions enabling a wealthy few? or a wealthy world?
---
## 🕌 Rise of Asia - Not Just China
###
### India's Military Build Up
In a bid to deter aggression from China, India is [strengthening its military capabilities](https://www.orfonline.org/research/how-india-is-trying-to-tackle-chinas-military-challenge/?ref=s3t.org) as well as its [military interoperability with US and allies](https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/us-seeks-strong-defence-ties-with-india-funds-billions-to-counter-china-122121600185%5F1.html?ref=s3t.org). The recent US military funding bill passed by the Senate includes provisions for "[Enhancing major defense partnership with India](https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwihyNHAn4P8AhWoKVkFHcR%5FDrQ4ChAWegQIDhAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Frules.house.gov%2Fsites%2Fdemocrats.rules.house.gov%2Ffiles%2FBILLS-117HR7776EAS-RCP117-70.pdf&usg=AOvVaw2J9GGOZbqJbEOpaws5t7%5Fx)." (See also this [piece on military exercises](https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/rest-of-the-world-news/as-indian-army-dovetails-with-other-nations-the-joint-military-exercises-you-must-know-articleshow.html?ref=s3t.org)). *Another trend to watch in our increasingly multi-polar world.*
### China goes for NFTs
[China is launching a government run NFT marketplace](https://www.coindesk.com/web3/2022/12/28/china-to-launch-first-national-digital-asset-marketplace/?ref=s3t.org) that will be used to trade intellectual property including artwork, digital copyrights, and property rights. The rough US equivalent might be a mashup between the National Endowment for the Arts, The Patent and Trademark Office, and the property title search industry.
### Saudi National Bank props up Credit Swisse
Credit Swisse gets [an infusion from Saudi National Bank](https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/business/credit-suisse-turns-to-petrodollars-to-fund-turnaround/48011222?ref=s3t.org). A few years back it received a similar investment from the Qatar Investment Authority. Watch for a trend of oil-rich nations taking over distressed Eurozone assets.
### Eurozone Groans Under Bad Loans
European Central Bank (ECB) [warns about bad loans](https://www.ft.com/content/19a20e7d-2ca8-43b5-8ef1-e02f9df4818a?ref=s3t.org) and [issues guidance making credit risk management a top priority for 2023](https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/banking/priorities/html/ssm.supervisory%5Fpriorities202212~3a1e609cf8.en.html?ref=s3t.org). In some ways, this is [not new](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/banking-law/european-banks-warned-by-ecb-to-avoid-letting-bad-loans-pile-up?ref=s3t.org).
---
Photo by [Corina Rainer](https://unsplash.com/ja/@corinarainer?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## What Twitter could disrupt (besides itself)
The shenanigans at Twitter have become a popcorn pastime, yes. But unnoticed in the chaos, one thing is working *very well.* So well, it could cause trouble for another industry (that actually kind of deserves it...you'll probably agree).
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### Get set to make it happen!
URL: https://www.s3t.org/makeithappen/
Last updated: 2024-06-25T02:47:40.000Z
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---
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S3T editions frequently cross-link to each other - for example noting where a previous S3T edition prediction has proven to be accurate. Or where additional context can shed light on an important point to understand. Here is a partial gallery of some of the weekly S3T editions:
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---
926 words
### S3T New Years Edition - Jan 1: 2023 Predictions, Crash Watch, Crypto Regroup, Geopolitics, The BTC Many, Margaux, Winter Bees
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-sunday-jan1-2023/
Last updated: 2023-01-01T04:58:59.000Z
*If you aren't yet a member, enjoy your preview and consider signing up by Jan 5 for a 20% discount: *
## 🔮 2023 Outlook
### Prediction Season is here again!
*Happy New Year!* Here is your quick roundup of the top macro and innovation predictions for 2023:
- [Recession](https://www.jpmorgan.com/commercial-banking/insights/economic-trends?ref=s3t.org) (JP Morgan)
- [$5K BTC and 2.4% World Economic Growth](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/storythreads/2022-12-22/what-will-happen-in-2023-predictions-on-stocks-china-and-recession-next-year?ref=s3t.org) (Bloomberg)
- [Global impacts from Chinese economic weakness](https://english.elpais.com/economy-and-business/2022-12-26/whats-in-store-for-the-global-economy-in-2023.html?ref=s3t.org) (El Pais)
- [Crypto will be less volatile than fiat and the Fed will cut rates](https://www.babypips.com/news/quick-wacky-predictions-2023?ref=s3t.org) (Baby Pips - FOREX focused)
- [Tech Innovation in FinTech and notably *RegTech*](https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbestechcouncil/2022/12/27/lessons-learned-from-2022-and-technology-predictions-for-2023/?sh=3cacf7a43588&ref=s3t.org) ie helping companies bridge new tech, ESG and compliance (Forbes)
In addition, the crypto predictions are out. Top themes:
- [4 Predictions about Privacy Preserving Solutions](https://www.coindesk.com/consensus-magazine/2022/12/29/zero-knowledge-cryptography-in-2023-the-year-privacy-becomes-practical/?ref=s3t.org) for 2023 - keep an eye on Zero Knowledge Cryptography.
- [3 Crypto Investment Predictions from 3iQ Research](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/12/30/first-mover-asia-3-crypto-predictions-for-2023-from-digital-manager-3iqs-research-head/?ref=s3t.org) \- expecting a rebound in crypto prices by Q3\.
- Coindesk's [10 Predictions for the Future of Crypto in 2023](https://www.coindesk.com/consensus-magazine/2022/12/20/10-predictions-for-the-future-of-crypto-in-2023/?ref=s3t.org).
- **Longer, but Highly Recommended:** [**Messari's Crypto Thesis 2023**](https://messari.io/crypto-theses-for-2023?ref=s3t.org)**,** Ryan Selkis's annual deep dive into the longer trends and what's really going on below the headlines in financial innovation.
Photo by [Judson Moore](https://unsplash.com/@judsonlmoore?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### 🌎 Geopolitics and the Outlook for the US
As Europe reels from its difficulties driven in part by what the London-based Economist calls "[American economic populism](https://www.economist.com/leaders/2022/11/24/europe-faces-an-enduring-crisis-of-energy-and-geopolitics?ref=s3t.org)", John Ikenberry continues to maintain that [American power is enduring](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/why-american-power-endures-us-led-order-isnt-in-decline-g-john-ikenberry?ref=s3t.org) (he's [been saying this for a decade](https://www.npr.org/2012/01/27/145955386/new-republic-the-myth-of-american-decline?ref=s3t.org)).
This Bloomberg piece on [reasons for optimism in 2023](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-12-27/future-of-tech-despite-the-gloom-there-s-been-important-progress?ref=s3t.org) outlines a number of factors - including the US chip industry rebuild and the decentralization of manufacturing - that are all quite favorable to the US.
But national unity will continue to be a challenge.
You've probably heard of the historic Christmas Truce. John Blake sees another side of this story, arguing [it was a loss of the will to fight](https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/29/europe/russian-army-ukraine-blake-cec/index.html?ref=s3t.org), and offers a cautionary tale about national unity as a prerequisite for winning conflicts.
And it appears, unfortunately, that there will be increasing risk of conflicts:
- The Atlantic Council has identified the top [23 Risks and Opportunities for 2023](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/atlantic-council-strategy-paper-series/risks-opportunities-2023/?ref=s3t.org)...many of which involve unrest, conflict or risk of war.
- The Council on Foreign Relations shares [top global trends to watch in 2023](https://www.cfr.org/article/visualizing-2023-trends-watch?ref=s3t.org) \- global food insecurity being one, political division being another.
---
## Big Themes
In the sections below I share a few of the larger themes to watch for and be part of in 2023\.
### Positive developments
In spite of all the global concerns, there are - as Peter Diamandis notes - things to celebrate from 2022 that are going to have positive impacts in 2023 and beyond:
> What did I miss? What else is proof of increasing abundance? [pic.twitter.com/MPGJhpLR9P](https://t.co/MPGJhpLR9P?ref=s3t.org)
>
> — Peter H. Diamandis, MD (@PeterDiamandis) [December 31, 2022](https://twitter.com/PeterDiamandis/status/1609263182903754754?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org)
### 🔥 Equator Economics
As noted in previous editions of S3T, equatorial populations are at risk due to climate change-driven heat and this is likely to drive unprecedented human migration and displacement. It will definitely [impact the global workforce and economy](https://www.noemamag.com/how-to-protect-the-economy-when-it-becomes-too-hot-to-work/?ref=s3t.org).
Photo by [James Coleman](https://unsplash.com/@jhc?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
###
### 📉 Market Crash Watch?
A consensus has formed among investors that a crash is coming sometime in 2023, [perhaps early in the year](https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2022/12/01/stock-market-will-get-worse-in-2023-before-it-gets-better-jpmorgan-says/?sh=719559c20036&ref=s3t.org), often voiced in the phrase "we haven't found the bottom yet."
It's no secret that
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---
###
### S3T Dec 25 Christmas Edition: What one mountain railroad town can teach us about innovation
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-sunday-dec-25/
Last updated: 2022-12-25T05:34:45.000Z
---
*A special Christmas Day feature: During its heyday, Petroleum, West Virginia was a railroad-driven boom town. Today it is a few old houses sitting next to empty fields. The railroad is gone, replaced by a bike trail.*
*My Grandfather grew up there.*
*His stories from those early years, and my recent visit a few weeks ago, sit like bookends at the start and finish of a complete innovation cycle.*
*One that perhaps is restarting.*
---
## Back to Petroleum
Each Christmas we set up a model train that travels around under our Christmas tree - as shown in the photo above. This train includes several replicas of the specialized Railway Mail cars that the US Postal Service used to transport mail between cities. Next to its tracks sits a replica of an old general store.
For me, the train and the store are reminders of family history.
The general store is a handmade replica of the original H.B. Perine General Merchandise. For decades that store served the town of Petroleum, West Virginia. It owner: my Great Grandfather Henry Burton Perrine.
Here is the only surviving photo that we know of. We used it as a guide when we built the replica that sits under our Christmas tree each year.
Perrine's Store, Petroleum, WV
The train that runs under our Christmas tree with its Railway Mail Service railcars are reminders of the childhood dreams and subsequent career of my Grandfather, Ralph Clemens Perrine (I am named after him, as is my Dad and my son).
The Baltimore and Ohio railroad ran right past the front of this store, and when the mail trains would pass by, my Grandpa would always wave to the mail clerks standing in the open doorways of the mail cars. He dreamed of being a Railway Mail Clerk when he grew up - one of the most coveted jobs of his time. He eventually made good on that dream, spending his career as a mail clerk in the [Railway Mail Service.](https://postalmuseum.si.edu/topics/railway-mail-service?ref=s3t.org)
When Grandpa passed away in August 2000, my father and his brothers found a number of materials and photographs related to the store. Here is a check with the store letterhead from 1916:
Notice that the name spelling is missing an 'r'. Thanks to the vagaries of frontier education and recordkeeping my family name was spelled Prine, Perine and occasionally Perrine until it was standardized to "Perrine" after a courthouse fire.
As a kid I used to beg my Grandpa to tell and retell stories from his growing up years working and making mischief in his Dad's store, as well as stories from his life and career working in the Railway Mail Service.
###
The railroad bed as it passes over the last bridge before entering Petroleum
### My Visit to Petroleum
This past October I was able to finally go to see the town - or what used to be the town of Petroleum - for myself. Today it is a quiet mostly empty place, a far cry from the boom town it was in its heyday.
The local folks are kind-hearted. They would stop and hear my story, and point out directions or locations of key places I was looking for. Many knew about the Perrine family and the store.
I got the sense that they had been through a lot, and had learned the hard way to check in on each other. At one point I pulled off the road to take a picture. A car pulled up alongside with the windows rolled down.
"You good?" she asked.
"Oh yeah, just taking pictures" I replied.
"Alright" She said, waved and drove off.
My Great Grandfather's store is no longer there. The railroad tracks are gone and the railroad path is now a hiking and biking trail.
When I arrived at what I believed to be the former location of the store I parked and walked up into the yard of some neighbors who had just home. I told them I was looking for the old Perrine store. They introduced themselves as Harlan Jr and Nancy. They showed me the exact location - it was similar to the location I expected based on the photos and my study of satellite maps.
Today an aluminum shed stands on the spot. The Perrine store stood there and was in operation until a fateful day in 1981\. By then it was owned by someone else (my Grandpa's brother sold the store years ago) but it still had the Perrine name on it.
Photo with my notes based on information from the neighbors
Harlan and Nancy helped me locate the railroad's old water tower - which my Grandpa used to sneak into for a cool swim during the hot summers.
They also pointed out the doctor's house - a stately blue two-story structure that figures into some of my Grandpa's stories. It still stands - someone lives there - along with a brown two-story building that used to be the Petroleum post office.
I took some time and walked up the path that used to be the railroad bed.
The railroad "cut" heading north out of Petroleum
It was amazing to stand in the “cut” - the ravine cut into the hill for the railroad bed - and realize my Grandfather and his family once walked and rode these rails, did their work, and dreamed their dreams here in this place.
### The End
At 6:30 PM on a rainy evening on November 20 1981, a freight train derailed and went right thru the old Perrine store, destroying it. As the local folks mulled what to do, the rats took matters into their own little hands and forced the issue. One of the train cars had spilled a large amount of corn into the basement of the store. It began to rot and attract vermin. So the decision was made to demolish the store.
The Accident Report of the 1981 Petroleum, WV Train Derailment
The derailment - like so many other rural railroad accidents - never made it into the news. At least I could find no mention of it in any regional or national newspaper databases from the time period. But I did find the 1 page report that the railroad filed with the Department of Transportation (shown above).
### The Innovation Cycle
It's hard for us to imagine today, but trains, railroads, oil rigs, and automobiles were the high-tech innovations of the day when my Grandfather was growing up. Railroad towns grew like tech hubs.
Not everyone welcomed the innovation.
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T Sunday Dec 18 Dry Powder, Paypal-MetaMask, Political NFTs, Genomics, Xmas Brews, Point Reyes
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-sunday-dec-18/
Last updated: 2022-12-18T06:28:28.000Z
---
## 📈 📉 Macro Headlines & Outlook
###
Money policy
[Markets dropped in the wake of another Fed rate hike](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-sell-off-investors-are-changing-their-focus-market-strategist-explains-183207244.html?guccounter=1&guce%5Freferrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9uZXdzLmdvb2dsZS5jb20v&guce%5Freferrer%5Fsig=AQAAAFB0VDheBG2FOswSOuJH1wm0NY7dbmAWQoqqkXxQaHsGGXuDI4vGETE27aoroQ0FcUFy9rM8rGwSAEVR1RVEPM6XYnz3I0iarn6KHjiCcV2kOEkSFGmT8KdYq7R6Tu7H%5FoEb2ZRQjWm92f8v7OdoUZUR-k-0XybuBN530SWCT1mF&ref=s3t.org) this week. Powell's speech [signaled strongly that the Fed remains committed](https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20221214.pdf) to a 2% inflation and plans to drive restrictive policy for the next 2-3 years.
### Investor sentiment
Investors are [more worried about a recession than inflation](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-investors-now-fear-recession-more-than-inflation-heres-why-11671234234?ref=s3t.org) at this point. Adding to their fears, the [3 month and 10 yr treasuries are inverted](https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/market-news/treasury-yields-invert-as-investors-weigh-risk-of-recession.html?ref=s3t.org) \- this historically has signaled a coming recession. [Wharton's Jeremy Seigel thinks a recession can be avoided](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/wharton-jeremy-siegel-inflation-recession-unemployment-fed-stock-market-outlook-2022-12?ref=s3t.org), but worries unemployment will rise in 2023\. Leading retail execs sense that consumers are [more value-conscious than ever](https://www.insiderintelligence.com/content/walmart-costco-ceos-identify-shift-consumers-shopping-patterns?ref=s3t.org).
### Expecting a crash
A consensus is forming among some investors that a crash is coming. Investors are storing up "dry powder" (cash kept ready for buying stocks, crypto or other assets whose prices have dropped). This in turn may be keeping some asset prices depressed.
---
## 🔮 Emerging Tech
### PayPal integrates with MetaMask
One of the largest payment platforms in centralized finance, [PayPal is now integrating with MetaMask](https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/12/14/paypal-partners-with-crypto-wallet-metamask-to-offer-easy-way-to-buy-crypto/?ref=s3t.org) the most widely used wallet and payment wallet in crypto.
### Political NFTs
[NLW analyzes why Trump NFTs sold out this week](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-breakdown/id1438693620?i=1000590453044&ref=s3t.org) raising $4M in about 48hrs. This is likely the start of a new era in political fundraising and selling of access - using NFTs as not just collectibles but also *access tickets* to a community and to events ranging from zoom calls to in person galas.
### Social Media Evolution
The Twitterfiles revelations prompts Jack Dorsey to reflect on his biggest mistakes & lessons from his Twitter days in [this highly recommended read for anyone building online communities](https://www.getrevue.co/profile/jackjack/issues/a-native-internet-protocol-for-social-media-1503112?ref=s3t.org). In the post Dorsey calls for a “free and open protocol for social media” and announced a set of grants to support this work.
💡
“Governments want to shape and control the public conversation, and will use every method at their disposal to do so, including the media. And the power a corporation wields to do the same is only growing. It’s critical that the people have tools to resist this, and that those tools are ultimately owned by the people.”
\- [Jack Dorsey](https://www.getrevue.co/profile/jackjack/issues/a-native-internet-protocol-for-social-media-1503112?ref=s3t.org)
###
Energy Tech is Driving a Shift
By the end of 2022 [more US energy will come from renewable sources (22%) than from coal (20%) and nuclear (19%)](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/u-s-renewable-energy-will-surge-past-coal-and-nuclear-by-years-end/?ref=s3t.org). This trend has been in progress for some time now. The question now is: Can growth in renewable energy happen fast enough?
Also breaking this week: This controlled fusion reaction's [energy output exceeded the energy used to trigger it](https://www.cnet.com/science/fusion-energy-had-a-big-breakthrough-what-it-really-means/?ref=s3t.org). Promising long sought after breakthrough, but much work remains for fusion energy to be viable at scale.
---
## 🧬 Closer Examination: The Genomic Era
*Startling new genomic capabilities are emerging, and promise better health outcomes. "Modern medicine" isn't ready.*
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T Sunday Dec 11 - White Collar Recession, DAOcember, ChatGPT Flood 2.0, De-Social, Hydrojets, Penguins, Persimmons
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-sunday-dec-11/
Last updated: 2022-12-29T03:18:58.000Z
---
## 📈 📉 Macro / Headlines / Trends
Markets [broke out of a long losing streak this week](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/futures-edge-up-ahead-jobs-data-recession-fears-loom-2022-12-08/?ref=s3t.org) after job reports showed rising unemployment, raising hopes that interest rate hikes might pause or slow. But Wall St foresees a [recession like no other](https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/insights/blackrock-investment-institute/outlook?ref=s3t.org) looming for 2023, including a White Collar Recession ([here](https://www.yahoo.com/video/white-collar-jobs-most-risk-100000696.html?ref=s3t.org) and [here](https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/16/economy/recession-white-collar-workers/index.html?ref=s3t.org)), driven by not only by the global economic picture, but also Covid era investments in automation.
Instagram's [Gen Z's 2023 outlook survey](https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/instagram-trend-report-2023-gen-110000253.html?ref=s3t.org) seemed to harmonize with this outlook: survey respondents showed a heavy focus on DIY, thrifting, side hustles and increasing financial literacy.
This week a price cap on Russian oil orchestrated by the West went into effect, prompting some to ask [whether this kind of coordinated cap could be used against OPEC](https://www.axios.com/2022/12/06/some-70-years-later-the-west-has-an-answer-for-opec?ref=s3t.org) or to cap the prices of other resources.
**💯 For the full set of 500+ international real-time economic indicators, click [EconDash](https://www.s3t.org/dashboard/) in the S3T.ORG menu bar.**
---
## Emerging Tech
### ✈️ Hydrogen Jet Engines
[Rolls Royce has successfully tested a hydrogen-powered jet engine](https://www.rolls-royce.com/innovation/net-zero/decarbonising-complex-critical-systems/hydrogen.aspx?ref=s3t.org), fueled with hydrogen generated by wind and tidal power from infrastructure based in Scotland. This marked [the first successful run of a hydrogen powered jet engine](https://www.designboom.com/technology/rolls-royce-easyjet-successful-testing-hydrogen-powered-aero-engine-12-05-2022/?ref=s3t.org) and promises to enable more eco-friendly air travel.
### 🎄DAOcember
DAOcember is a [12 day event](https://daohaus.substack.com/p/12-days-of-daocember) designed to help developers and innovators get familiar with DAOs in general and specifically Moloch based DAOs. First some terms & definitions:
- Moloch is a simple open source DAO framework.
- Moloch DAO, the *grant giving* organization that funds essential digital public goods and infrastructure for Ethereum 2.0, is an implementation of the Moloch framework.
- DAOhaus is a no-code platform that allows others to create DAOs based on the Moloch framework.
> The 12 days of DAOcember begin on Dec 5 with our Kickoff Event @ 8AM PST. The first week is for talk and second week is for good-ol' buidl (and talk).
>
> Openers include [@pet3rPan](https://twitter.com/pet3rpAn?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org) [@spengrah](https://twitter.com/spengrah?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org) [@isaacpatka](https://twitter.com/isaacpatka?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org) [@jamesyoung](https://twitter.com/jamesyoung?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org) and [@ameensol](https://twitter.com/ameensol?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org)
>
> Early sign up:[https://t.co/2nbU4rqBdD](https://t.co/2nbU4rqBdD?ref=s3t.org) [#daocember](https://twitter.com/hashtag/daocember?src=hash&ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org) [pic.twitter.com/OSesRYGshy](https://t.co/OSesRYGshy?ref=s3t.org)
>
> — DAOhaus (👅, 👅) (@nowdaoit) [November 30, 2022](https://twitter.com/nowdaoit/status/1598016368376307712?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org)
with
### 🕸 Decentralized Social Media Platforms
Bankless reviews the [new crop of decentralized social media platforms](https://newsletter.banklesshq.com/p/the-status-of-web3-social?ref=s3t.org) built on blockchain architectures. Watch for a deeper dive on this in a future edition of S3T.
---
## AI: The Great Flood 2.0
*A Great Flood - of words and code - is coming soon. Should we start building an Ark?* *What is the best approach to capitalize on the opportunities offered by ChatGPT and similar AI capabilities while also managing the very significant risks that come with their operational use?*
*Noah's Ark* Filippo Pilazzi 1867 [Wikimedia Commons](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:NOAH%27S%5FARK.PNG?ref=s3t.org)
##
### A more verbose world
For the past 20 years we've come to see Search as a specific kind of thing, and this shaped our notions of how we get information. All of this is changing thanks to the recent explosion of conversational AI capabilities. It impacts not just the creation of text, but also the creation of code - impacting both our ability to know and do. Yes, there are risks, but significant opportunities.
### More code, text from AI
Two of the more recent examples of generative, conversational AI:
- [Ghostwriter](https://replit.com/site/ghostwriter?ref=s3t.org) \- AI-Based Pair Programming: Ghostwriter completes code in realtime, generates, transforms and explains code as well. Compare to: [GPT-3 powered low code apps](https://powerapps.microsoft.com/en-us/blog/behind-the-scenes-what-it-takes-to-teach-gpt-3-how-to-build-low-code-apps/?ref=s3t.org) from Microsoft.
- [ChatGPT](https://openai.com/blog/chatgpt/?ref=s3t.org) \- One of the best conversational AI's so far trained using reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) methods [described here](https://openai.com/blog/chatgpt/?ref=s3t.org). Generates large "sounds-right" passages of text. Better than Character.AI, but lacks the sourcing of Elicit.org, and has gaps in its training set (didn't know about the [Seige of Narbonne](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege%5Fof%5FNarbonne%5F%28752%E2%80%93759%29?ref=s3t.org) for example).
To understand the full impact, let's review the recent history of search and information.
### Previous generation of search
During the web1 and web2 era (roughly 1990's-2010's) the world's information was put online. First generation search leveraged processing power to enable ***more efficient indexing*** of the world' information.
The use case was *web pages on demand*: let someone quickly find something on a web page. It was a big step forward, but the resulting pile of information was beyond the ability of humans to know/process/use except in very small discrete portions.
This is because search was still query-based. It required knowledge of what to ask, expressed in a well-formed query. It returns information broken up in disparate (often irrelevant) chunks ...aka "search results."
This in turn requires a lot of painstaking assembly so the information can be presented in a coherent deliverable - document, presentation, or conversation.
All of this is changing...
### Next generation of search
Next generation search leverages large language models (LLMs) and reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) to enable ***more efficient discovery*** of the world's information AND automated assembly into deliverables.
This new kind of search is "prompt based" and returns its results not as a list of search results for the user to scrutinize, but instead as an *information deliverable*: a paper or conversation for the user to engage in (and still scrutinize of course).
The use case is *expertise on demand*: let someone quickly find expertise / knowledgeable advice or summaries of a topic. Sounds promising - and immensely useful - if it works. Will the risks outweigh the rewards?
💡
"*ChatGPT is an AI that has mastered a unique human skill, bullshitting. It knows what the shape of a good answer looks like but often not the details.*" - [Dare Obasanjo](https://twitter.com/Carnage4Life?ref=s3t.org)
### Risks to companies that use these technologies
This new era brings new risks, just as previous ones did. Here is a starting point for a risk catalog:
- IP-Laundering - ChatGPT is dispensing large amounts of advice with no sourcing (that I can find so far). In the wrong hands, this kind of capability could be used to capture available intellectual property then reword/remix or possibly improve it, then release it as an ostensibly new creation.
- Traceable Liability - Imagine this scenario: A research hospital is developing a medical method. The paper describing that method is ingested into an AI model. Other clinicians follow/misapply advice from that model and patients are harmed or deprived of care. Who is liable? The originating research hospital? The software engineers whose code trained the model? The data scientists who prepared the dataset containing that paper? Only the clinicians working at point of care?
- Verbosity - the mass of text, code, apps is about to get bigger. More places for errors to hide.
- Validity - most of this new mass of text will sound right, and the code might compile, but great harm can come from falsehoods that seem valid to some, or from code that seems innocuous to those unfamiliar with advanced hacking methods.
- Scrutiny - the workload of scrutinizing this mass gets bigger. It will no doubt spawn new automated scrutiny methods, but this opens another can of worms...
- Decision rights: who gets to write (and update) the rules that guide this automated scrutiny?
To illustrate, try this with ChatGPT: type in a question that you know is false and watch what it does. I typed in a conspiracy-laden query to the effect of "*What methods were used by the Illuminati and the Rothschilds to fake the moon landing while refactoring the world back to a flat format?*"
ChatGPT responded by gently informing me that my notions were false, and offering some points supporting the validity of the moon landing, etc.
The point: *Who gets to write the rules* that criticize and correct some assertions while allowing other assertions to appear valid?
### Risks to Humanity
These AI capabilities do not only pose risks to companies that elect to use them in their operations. They may pose risks to society as a whole. The worried reactions to ChatGPT (and its very rapid growth) have fallen into 2 categories:
- Others have raised the prospect that the world's information and knowledge is at risk. Should we be thinking about ways to safeguard valid information, code, and other intellectual assets against the rising tide of "non-assets" created by AI agents and their trainers?
- Some worry that AI advisors with the power of ChatGPT will replace entire categories of knowledge workers from marketers to management consultants...**perhaps even lawyers (see below)?**
> Cyberpunk just happened. Months ago Coinbase blocked my account bc I’m Russian and rejected all proofs that I’m a German resident.
>
> Today I asked ChatGPT to generate a "legal claim" and sent the result to their support. They responded and gave me 3 days to withdraw money.
>
> LOL :D
>
> — vas3k (@vas3kcom) [December 6, 2022](https://twitter.com/vas3kcom/status/1600205362980065280?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org)
While it's important to be mindful of these risks, the constructive way to address them may lie in the opportunities described in the next section below.
📌 A rule of thumb: Delegating work to other entities (for example outsourced teams or managed services vendors) always involves new risks and new supervisory challenges. Delegating work to an AI entity involves some higher risks (because it is new and its legal precedents are not fully established) and definitely imposes more complex supervisory workloads. **This opens some new opportunities for innovators, governance designers, and entrepreneurs.**
### The Next Round of Opportunities
ChatGPT and similar AI capabilities have high potential for value, but the potential risks will block broad adoption (specifically, their usage in regulated industries) unless a specific kind of certifying and risk mitigation function is available.
These companies contemplating the use of these newer AI capabilities face several problems to solve:
- They desperately need to find efficiencies, in light of the current economic picture.
- AI advisors promise to deliver amazing efficiencies, but there is a big question of whether the general outputs from these AI advisers are consistently accurate.
- There is also the additional risk problem (as outlined above) with grave uncertainty about how AI-related liabilities will be litigated. Legal precedents for AI are unclear at this point.
So providing certification and risk mitigation services could help accelerate the adoption of AI advisers and enable companies to achieve needed efficiencies while also managing their risk appropriately. This suggests an opportunity for a new kind of certifying and risk mitigation service (and AI insurance) that would:
- Convene a cross-disciplinary panel of experts who bring compliance, diversity & inclusion, clinical, legal, and industry-specific subject matter expertise.
- Enable these expert panels to review and refine the output of these AI advisers, to ensure their accuracy.
- Provide a framework of risk mitigation measures that enable regulated corporations to make use of these AI advisers safely and appropriately.
- Offer training, certification, and audit processes for businesses. Businesses that have undergone this training, certification, and audit process are then eligible for AI insurance policies (or discounts on the same) protecting that company from claims relating to harms arising from the operational use of an AI advisor.
This is only a starting point. The amount of work required for the ethical and positively impactful use of AI is more significant than many realize. And it can offer a more inclusive set of opportunities for a broader collection of different talents and skill sets than many realize. **This deserves a lot of focus and attention from change leaders over the next 6-12 months.**
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T Sunday Dec 4 - ICM, Volatile Inflation era, Deductibles, Med Ed, Holiday Gifting Guide, Stollen, Tundra Swans, Intentional Work
URL: https://www.s3t.org/dec4/
Last updated: 2023-12-01T04:07:58.000Z
---
## This Week's Cover Art
This week's S3T Cover features an ICM (Intentional Camera Movement) abstract photo by Santa Fe artist Roxanne Darling. ICM uses longer exposure photography and deliberate camera movements during exposure to create expressive painterly, abstract or surreal images.
### About the Artist: Roxanne Darling
Roxanne is a consciousness-driven artist, writer, and technologist with 30 years of experience creating award-winning marketing campaigns and podcasts, training courses, and managing various creative and technical projects. She’s a persistent early adopter:
- First in developing mind-body fitness
- One of the first video podcasters, with her show *Beach Walks with Rox*
- More recently creating and selling traditional and NFT art.
Roxanne is a lifelong student of consciousness and believes it’s essential to integrate human values into the tech, business, and creative projects she supports. Roxanne also believes in being an active community member and volunteers as a web developer, marketer, and election worker.
Explore more of Roxanne's works here:
- [65 and In Full Bloom](https://iamfortheloveofnature.com/?ref=s3t.org): Self-Portrait and Poetry project, For the Love of Nature
- [Only Women Can Do That - The Feminine Element in Photography](https://www.roxannedarling.com/only-women-can-do-that-the-feminine-element-in-photography/?ref=s3t.org) \- the collection that features Pink Beams along with a range of fascinating photographic abstracts.
- [Psychological Ants](https://objkt.com/asset/KT1CMsSGf1WUMG54wnhy86SdxfgnJr8BACM7/0?ref=s3t.org) \- An NFT collaboration with @dehiscence
### Exclusive for S3T Readers
Roxanne was kind enough to offer S3T Readers 10% discount for her art works if they mention S3T. Click the Links Below and use the Coupon Code S3T10:
- [Little Darlings Series](https://www.s3t.org/r/88e524a0?m=d9ccfe01-4289-46c4-8d88-2c3a96a15f68) \- Limited Edition black and white framed drawings (pictured below).
- [Love of Nature self-portraits](https://www.s3t.org/r/38bef5ea?m=d9ccfe01-4289-46c4-8d88-2c3a96a15f68) \- *I AM: For the Love of Nature* are self-portraits composed in the American West as a 60-something woman.
Selections from the **Little Darlings* Series - Roxanne Darling
Coupon Codes expire 12/31/2022\. [Follow Roxanne Darling on LinkedIn](https://linkedin.com/in/roxannedarling?ref=s3t.org).
---
## 📈 📉 Macro Outlook
❤️ *S3T paid members can access all global economic indicators by clicking or tapping*[ *EconDash*](https://www.s3t.org/dashboard/) *in the S3T.ORG menu.*
The US added 263k jobs last month, and manufacturing payrolls were up 14k, both higher than expected. [BTC & ETH fell](https://www.theblock.co/post/191703/bitcoin-ether-crypto-stocks-plummet-following-bumper-u-s-jobs-figures?ref=s3t.org) on the news. Unemployment rose from 3.6% to 3.7% This week's economic reports continued to indicate [resilience and anxiety in the US economy](https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/02/economy/yes-but-economy-analysis/index.html?ref=s3t.org) but concerns persist about a [fractured recession-prone international economy](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/world/not-just-another-recession-global-economy?ref=s3t.org).
### Volatile Inflation Ahead?
This week the Fed released [notes from a June 24 panel discussion featuring the Fed Vice Chair Dr Leal Brainard](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/brainard20221128a.htm) and her concern that we may be entering an era of **more volatile inflation**.
The notes reveal that at least some in the Federal Reserve leadership worry we are facing a very different kind of inflation problem. The drivers that make this inflation different were discussed in the [June 12 Edition of S3T](https://www.s3t.org/s3t-june-12/).
What does *Volatile Inflation* look like?
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T Sunday, Nov 27 - Layer 1s, EU Blockchain, Intentional AI, Risk Framework, Hacker Drones, Kalua Turkey, Meadowhawks
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-sunday-nov-27/
Last updated: 2022-11-27T06:28:36.000Z
##
## Macro View: Big Tech, Web3, and Green Energy
Black Friday online sales in the US hit a [record 9.1Billion this week](https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/adobe-says-black-friday-online-sales-hit-record-9-bln-2022-11-26/?ref=s3t.org). 48% of purchases were done via mobile apps. This, in spite of inflation and an [increasingly gloomy global economic outlook](https://www.voanews.com/a/world-economic-outlook-for-2023-increasingly-gloomy-/6850942.html?ref=s3t.org) for 2023\. In China, Covid and unrest point to more trouble ahead for global supply chains.
> Shanghai tonight. [pic.twitter.com/zjbH2rBeRg](https://t.co/zjbH2rBeRg?ref=s3t.org)
>
> — Miranda Wang (@Miranda625) [November 26, 2022](https://twitter.com/Miranda625/status/1596578989505531905?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org)
### 🎻 Big Tech hopes for a better 2023
[Big Tech lost 7.4 Trillion in 2022](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/25/techs-reality-check-how-the-industry-lost-7point4-trillion-in-one-year.html?ref=s3t.org), as the era of easy money, [worry-free SPACs](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-04/spac-sponsors-that-piled-in-amid-boom-may-face-4-billion-tab?ref=s3t.org), and [excessive talent hoarding](https://medium.com/@alt.cap/time-to-get-fit-an-open-letter-from-altimeter-to-mark-zuckerberg-and-the-meta-board-of-392d94e80a18?ref=s3t.org) came to a close. In January funds from the [Inflation Reduction Act](https://time.com/6207015/clean-climate-technology-inflation-reduction-act/?ref=s3t.org) and the [Chips and Science Act](https://www.commerce.senate.gov/services/files/2699CE4B-51A5-4082-9CED-4B6CD912BBC8?ref=s3t.org) will help kickstart a new round of investments including chip company expansions in the US.
### Rough year for Ethereum Killers
Solana, long regarded as one of the "Ethereum killers" is falling on hard times. Solana's price is [down 90+ % from its All Time High](https://www.forbes.com/sites/ninabambysheva/2022/11/22/solana-coin-down-95-from-all-time-high-as-other-cryptos-get-relief?ref=s3t.org), due in part to the overall economic picture, but also embarrassing [technical issues](https://coingeek.com/solana-blockchain-implodes-what-happened-and-why/?ref=s3t.org), [a hack](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/08/03/phantom-wallet-exploit-drains-millions-in-sol-tokens/?ref=s3t.org), and now the [FTX Mess](https://solana.com/news/solana-facts-ftx-bankruptcy?ref=s3t.org).
Some fundamentals to consider in Solana's favor:
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T Sunday Nov 20: 8B, COP27, Climate Tech, The Next Cycle,Trans Innovators, Controls, Quantum, Falcons, Spam Katzu...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-sunday-nov-20/
Last updated: 2022-11-20T06:31:39.000Z
###
---
## 🌌 Planet
This week [the world hit 8 Billion](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-13/earths-population-reaches-eight-billion-people/101643854?ref=s3t.org) and the first [network-nation experiment is underway](https://www.euronews.com/next/2022/11/07/inside-liberland-the-balkan-micronation-becoming-the-first-country-to-be-built-in-the-meta?ref=s3t.org), applying concepts from [The Network State by Balaji Srinivasan](https://thenetworkstate.com/?ref=s3t.org) (required reading for S3T members because - who knows?).
### COP27 Climate Conference Outcomes
The UN's COP27 (aka Conference Of the Parties) wrapped up this week with a [5 year tech innovation plan](https://unfccc.int/news/joint-work-programme-of-the-unfccc-technology-mechanism-launched-at-cop27?ref=s3t.org) to support climate stabilization, and [a surprise breakthrough agreement](https://insideclimatenews.org/news/19112022/at-cop27-an-11th-hour-deal-climate-reparations/?ref=s3t.org) to set up a "loss and damages" fund where:
- Rich polluting nations contribute to the fund based on [their culpability for climate change per this study](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-022-03387-y?ref=s3t.org) (see [explainer](https://phys.org/news/2022-07-rich-nations-climate-poorer.html?ref=s3t.org)).
- Developing nations impacted by climate change events: floods, droughts etc use the funds to aid recovery efforts.
Developing nations made this agreement [top priority for COP27](https://www.wri.org/insights/cop27-loss-damage-finance?ref=s3t.org), but the US and EU had long sought to avoid the topic.
### More encouraging news
Conventional wisdom has long held that economic growth and environmental protections are mutually exclusive and exist at each other's expense.
This is proving to be a **false tradeoff:** More than [25 countries have broken out of the false tradeoff of environment vs economic growth](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23447414/degrowth-decoupling-carbon-emissions-economic-growth?ref=s3t.org), demonstrating how to have *both*.
### Talent
ClimateTech is leaning in to hire the \~100k tech workers laid off this year:
- [Climatebase is a job board](https://climatebase.org/?ref=s3t.org) (and company directory) focused on climate centric jobs and employers.
- [Terra.do](https://terra.do/tech-layoffs-climate-career-transition-resources/?ref=s3t.org) a community for helping tech workers connect with the climate tech needs and opportunities.
- [Climate Draft is a new hub](https://www.climatedraft.org/layoffs?ref=s3t.org) for helping displaced tech workers transition into climate careers.
- [Climateperks.com](https://www.climateperks.com/?ref=s3t.org) incentivizes climate friendly travel (taking trains, boats, buses) by enabling companies to give employee's "Journey Days" (time for the slower travel).
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T Sunday Edition Nov 13 - Midterms, FTX, AI Blueprint, Big Tech woes, Digital Ads, Crows, Middle Eastern Cuisine...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/nov-13/
Last updated: 2022-11-13T06:28:40.000Z
---
## About this week's cover: "High Tea" by Nicky Wilkinson-Pickett
*This week's cover Art features a digital art work titled "High Tea" by Nicky Wilkinson-Pickett.*
### About the Artist
Nicky Wilkinson-Pickett is an innovation-driven tech-savvy attorney with experience guiding emerging tech, and leading sales and marketing teams. Nicky is passionate about finding ways to balance work and life and feels that art is an incredibly powerful way to create that balance, given today's inequities and stresses. She also believes that art enhances creative expression, innovation, health (including mental health) and wellness.
### Quick take interview with the artist
**Ralph: "**People always love to hear what the artist is thinking when they create. What thoughts went into this work?"
**Nicky:** "I love tea and thought it would be cool to combine tea and tech. I also had a thought of 'reading the tea leaves' ...as in the future of blockchain."
**Ralph:** So is this piece a way of saying '*blockchain is my cup of tea*?'
**Nicky:** Yes definitely! There's also this thing about "sipping tea" which is what you do when you hear gossip. There's so much gossip and chatter in this space.
**Ralph:** Especially this week about FTX, SEC and who knew what when...Wow, this art has *layers!*
**Nicky:** "It does, and so does Blockchain lol!"
[Follow Nicky on LinkedIn](http://linkedin.com/in/nickeyeawilkinson-pickett?ref=s3t.org)
---
*In this S3T Sunday Edition we cover Midterm Election Impacts, FTX Fallout, Big Tech and Digital Ad Shifts, AI Design Principles, How Blockchain is already improving financial efficiency for adopters, and implications for healthcare.*
*Key quote: "To date, most healthcare innovation has been confined to a superficial layer..."*
Plus best Lebanese and Middle Eastern food, Nature notes and more.
**If you are not a paid subscriber [sign up now for your 14 day free trial](https://www.s3t.org/14-day-free-trial).**
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T.ORG Nov 6 - Better Annual Planning, Rates, Jobs outlook, AI for Coding, Decentralization, Omelettes, Species Updates
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-org-nov-6/
Last updated: 2023-07-22T16:57:32.000Z
---
## 🎲 Rolling the dice ...again
### Interest Rates - they used to work
The Fed [raised rates for the 4th time this year](https://thehill.com/policy/3715979-federal-reserve-hikes-interest-rates-by-75-basis-points-for-fourth-time-this-year/?ref=s3t.org), and begins [mulling the blunders that got them here](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-did-inflation-surge-to-a-40-year-high-here-are-4-causes-of-the-worst-monetary-policy-mistake-in-years-11667318263?ref=s3t.org) and why **the Volcker playbook doesn't work in 2022.**
Alex Yablon notes that Paul Volcker's successful inflation fighting in the 70s-80s [was successful due to 2 measures NOT related to raising rates](https://www.vox.com/2022/11/2/23433474/federal-reserve-interest-rate-inflation-volcker?ref=s3t.org):
1. **Busting unions** \- reducing the ability of workers to demand higher wages by pressuring unions
2. **Building global supply chains** \- moving labor and parts to regions with lower costs.
Neither option is available today. Unions don't drive wage increases (the way they used to) and the global supply chain is broken (and likely rearranging into a set of regional chains).
Yablon argues astutely we don't need higher rates, we need "solutions to a lack of labor, commodities, and goods." To my thinking, this would be a more sensible starting point for approaching the "turbulent decade" Lyn Alden predicts in her [recent energy crisis investment note](https://www.lynalden.com/energy-problems/?ref=s3t.org).
Photo by [benjamin lehman](https://unsplash.com/@benjaminlehman?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### 🎱 The broken kaleidoscope: Job Market Indicators
The [Sept jobs report showed continued strength](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm?ref=s3t.org) with some moderation in [hiring and quitting](https://www.ziprecruiter.com/blog/nov-jolts-rapid-reaction/?ref=s3t.org) \- a sharp drop in insurance & mortgages balanced by a sharp rise in healthcare. November [layoffs are already mounting](https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/layoffs-latest-companies-making-cuts-5040713/?ref=s3t.org), and global container shipping [braces for a 2023 recession](https://www.ft.com/content/08767ba5-ec3e-49f3-a710-64a5ff753b90?ref=s3t.org).
At the same time, large enterprises (5k+ workers) have [record numbers of job openings](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/02/hiring-is-still-booming-in-some-industries-but-falling-in-others-jolts-report.html?ref=s3t.org)(!) Jobs may be staying open/unfilled for longer, adding to the total job openings for 3 reasons important to talent managers:
- Anecdotals suggest *hiring delays* are occurring as hiring managers balk at the higher salary demands of candidates laid off by venture backed and big tech firms. **Reminds me of the dot.com bubble burst:** laid off tech workers entered the job market with inflated salary and title expectations - and were forced to adjust their expectations. Similar dynamic playing out now?
- Companies are muddling through Q4 earnings season and deferring new hires until Q1 or beyond.
- There is broad expectation that more talent may get laid off and come onto the market over the next 6-12 months - depending on the interplay of the Fed's actions and the global economy.
Together these factors may be influencing hiring managers to bide their time and see what additional talent becomes available at more attractive price points in Q1\.
### Midterms
All of this makes for worrisome election optics: the [Fed's apparent intent to force lower wages and layoffs](https://www.huffpost.com/entry/federal-reserve-recession-workers%5Fn%5F635186c6e4b051268c526b52?ref=s3t.org) backs a narrative of an administration imposing poverty just to hit a squishy inflation metric that hasn't been accurate for some time now (see [S3T Feb 27 segment titled *Flawed Inflation Tracking*](https://www.s3t.org/s3t-feb-27/)).
---
## Emerging Tech
### 🎢 Crypto Momentum?
Bitcoin, Ethereum and other digital assets [rose again this week](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/11/04/first-mover-americas-bitcoin-higher-after-jobs-report-and-arweaves-meta-effect/?ref=s3t.org). Polygon was up sharply this week on news that [Meta will use Polygon](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/11/04/matic-rally-gathers-speed-as-meta-announces-polygon-powered-nfts-charts-signal-golden-cross/?ref=s3t.org) to **let Instagram users mint and sell NFTs.**
**Fidelity** has opened [a waiting list for Fidelity Crypto](https://www.fidelity.com/crypto/trading?ref=s3t.org) \- a new offering allowing retail customers to invest in crypto.
By my figures, it seems the bottom of the crypto market occurred sometime in June. Since then a number of cryptocurrencies have made sizeable gains.
---
Photo by [Joan Gamell](https://unsplash.com/@gamell?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### AI for Coding
AI has been used to generate predictions, recommendations, art, and *potentially* correct text...*can it be used to write code*?
This week [BigCode released The Stack](https://huggingface.co/datasets/bigcode/the-stack?ref=s3t.org), a 3TB pre-training dataset intended to answer that question. BigCode contains the complete code of 30 different programming languages, structured to serve as a pre-training dataset for Large Language Models (LLMs) capable of generating working software code. [BigCode's stated goal](https://www.bigcode-project.org/docs/about/mission/?ref=s3t.org) is to create a LLM that can reliably assist programmers with varying degrees of experience to write software apps.
This will be interesting, because code is less subjective / less forgiving than other AI use cases so far: code either compiles and works, or it doesn't. If it were to become viable - and capable of replacing software developers at scale - it would mark one of the first times that automation is aimed at higher end wage earners. Jack Ma did warn us [about higher paying jobs being automated](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/24/jack-ma-robots-ai-internet-decades-of-pain.html?ref=s3t.org).
---
## 🔎 Why the world & the US see Web3 Decentralization differently
Web3 is enabling a new form of decentralization - not to be confused with [public cloud decentralized ops](https://thenewstack.io/sharing-the-operations-burden-centralized-vs-decentralized/?ref=s3t.org), [government decentralization](https://www.csis.org/analysis/government-decentralization-21st-century?ref=s3t.org), or [other forms of administrative decentralization](http://www.ciesin.org/decentralization/English/General/Different%5Fforms.html?ref=s3t.org).
Web3 offers a decentralized blockchain architecture that is different from inherently centralized structure of current architectures. Web3's *decentralized architecture* enables new models for ownership and trust. These new models have urgency for people around the world, but people inside the US are less attuned to this urgency.
### Clear Benefits of Web3 Decentralization
As shown in the above graphic, Web3 takes a fundamentally different approach, with significant implications:
- Implications for ownership: The software, content and data layers of the stack no longer reside within the control or access of the platform or network owner.
- Implications for governance: Decisions can be delegated, and representation and input gathering can be enabled in better ways.
These implications - along with further implications for transparency and reliability have been detailed in a number of helpful guides and explainers:
- [Beginners guide to Web3 and the decentralized Internet](https://cointelegraph.com/blockchain-for-beginners/what-is-web-3-0-a-beginners-guide-to-the-decentralized-internet-of-the-future?ref=s3t.org)
- Ethereum focused [guide to the advantages of decentralized technology](https://ethereum.org/en/web3/?ref=s3t.org)
- CB Insights [explainer with in-depth coverage of use cases that benefit individuals](https://www.cbinsights.com/research/web3-decentralized-internet/?ref=s3t.org)
- This World Economic Forum piece on [benefits for economically disadvantaged regions](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/09/decentralized-finance-a-leapfrog-technology-for-the-unbanked/?ref=s3t.org)
💡
*"However, blockchain is much more than just a vessel for cryptocurrencies. The decentralized ledger it is based on brings numerous advantages for countries with struggling economies."* \- [Association of Certified Anti-Money Laundering Specialists](https://www.acamstoday.org/why-developing-nations-are-embracing-blockchain/?ref=s3t.org)
### US: Non-committal
Here in the US, though, the response has been non-committal at best: Consumers often focus on whether the experience is more *entertaining* than that of existing entertainment (i.e. multiplayer games).
Some in the federal finance sector have been more negative.
This [IMF broadside](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2022/09/Point-of-View-the-superficial-allure-of-crypto-Hilary-Allen?ref=s3t.org) (from a US based author) against decentralization offers a critique worth reading because it:
- Raises challenges to address & behaviors to avoid, but also
- Provides a priceless illustration of how skeptics define the emerging system by its *worst moments*, while defining the status quo by its *best.*
The SEC levied a [record $6.4B in enforcement actions](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/u.s.-sec-obtained-$6.4-bln-from-enforcement-in-fiscal-2022-chair?ref=s3t.org) so far in 2022 - many related to Web3 - amid persistent criticism for [overreach (2021)](https://www.ft.com/content/1c999f26-5fc9-4008-84bb-1f706c6251a7?ref=s3t.org) and [lack of clear guidance (2022](https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/gensler-the-sec-has-given-you-all-the-5112124/?ref=s3t.org)) for crypto/Web3\. (See also [Chair Gensler's victory lap this week](https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2022/11/03/remarks-by-chair-gensler-before-the-practising-law-institutes-54th-annual-institute-on-securities/?ref=s3t.org) in the [federal agency turf war over who gets to regulate crypto](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-breakingviews-idDEKBN2PO176?ref=s3t.org)).
### Why the US doesn't get Decentralization
People in the US largely don't understand the economic advantages they have due to the position of their currency compared to the currencies of other nations:
- US dollar as reserve currency
- US Treasuries as the undisputed safe haven for institutional and government treasuries around the world.
- US as a key facilitator of global energy security & the petrodollar system
Together these factors create [a demand for US currency that in turn gives the US flexibility and options](https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/the-international-role-of-the-u-s-dollar-20211006.html) that non-privileged currencies (and corresponding economies) don't have.
A by product of this is that we don't understand why decentralization and its tenets are so intensely advocated for or needed by others. What seems like an abstract concept to us, is very real for those who must live, work, save and invest in less privileged economies.
At the same time, we in the US are not immune to the shortcomings of the current status quo.
- Our reliance on big tech platforms enables monopolistic practices (for example, see the [recent Apple store policy updates](https://cointelegraph.com/news/new-apple-rules-double-down-on-30-nft-tax-and-geo-limits-exchanges?ref=s3t.org) mandating that any crypto or NFT transactions contininue to give Apple its 30% fee)
- Our ownership of our content, our data, our identity and privacy is compromised by flawed regulatory frameworks crafted by authorities with insufficient understanding of the technology platforms or developments they were attempting to regulate.
Status quo governance - specifically the nation-state and its presumed relationship with corporations - is showing its age, and the implications are just as real for Americans as others.
### Timing
Decentralized successors to today's problematic nation-states have been predicted:
- Mario Gabriele's "[Decentralized Country](https://www.generalist.com/briefing/the-decentralized-country?ref=s3t.org)" is a more mature, more evolved version of today's Decentralized Autonomous Organization (DAO).
- Balaji S. Srinivasan's "[Network State](https://thenetworkstate.com/?ref=s3t.org)" layers on top of today's fading nation-states and achieves diplomatic recognition.
These may emerge in some form within \~10 years. But they are no replacement for near term innovation. While nation-level decentralization may theoretically offer relief in the future, there are more practical urgent use cases waiting for action now.
###
---
## 🍱 Sensible Ideas
*I am blessed to be part of a family that knows their way around the kitchen and the campfire. So each week I share what I call "sensible ideas" for good times and good food!*
### Open Faced Omelettes are IN
Pictured above is an open faced omelette - this was my quick lunch on Friday:
Moroccan meatballs, Zucchini, Grape Tomatoes, Onions, Peppers, topped with Feta Cheese and Berbere spice mix.
Tips:
- Don't be afraid to get creative. **An Omelette is a flexible framework**! Put together whatever flavors you're in the mood for.
- Open faced omelettes save you the trouble of flipping (flipping them all over the stove if you're like me).
- Trick for even cooking and nicely melted cheese on top: heat a [Comal](https://www.lodgecastiron.com/product/cast-iron-griddle?sku=L9OG3&gclid=CjwKCAjw8JKbBhBYEiwAs3sxNy5SIHkqW6aajM1yZVRTW6-3s8LQSRzW4JOfL4zcv8%5FLq4BvPFXa4BoCkggQAvD%5FBwE&ref=s3t.org) (a skillet with no sides, used for warming tortillas), then place the Comal on top of the skillet you're cooking the omelette in - when the omelette is almost done. The heat from the bottom of the comal will melt cheese and finish the cook process nicely.
The omelette appears to have [been first documented in Persia](https://oldeuropean-restaurant.com/the-origin-of-omelettes/?ref=s3t.org), with subsequent variations emerging all over the world. TasteAtlas has curated 38 international variations at the link below.
[38 Types of Omelet Sorted by PopularityList includes: Tamagoyaki, Kuku, Torta, Oyster Omelet, Omeletta.TasteAtlasTasteAtlas](https://www.tasteatlas.com/most-popular-types-of-omelet-in-the-world?ref=s3t.org)
---
## 🦚 Nature Notes
*Each week S3T includes a Nature Notes segment focused on increasing our understanding and enjoyment of nature.*
### *Species Updates - Bigger Impact Than You'd Think* by Jan Hansen
*Jan Hansen is the founder of [Otus Asio Tours](https://www.otusasiotours.com/?ref=s3t.org), a leading international ecotourism company, with deep expertise in hard to find species around the world.*
Beesley's Lark - photo by Jan Hansen
Each year, eBird updates its bird species taxonomy - the complete list of the world's 10,906 species of birds, organized by families and subgroups.
For North American birders who don’t travel much internationally, this update is rather uneventful and usually affects just a few species. North American birds have been intensely studied for decades and as a result, taxonomic changes are less expected.
But in places like Asia and Africa, where there are many more species and political strife, poor infrastructure and geographic inaccessibility make avian research more difficult. And **changes to the species list can have larger impacts than you might think.**
The 2022 species updates will add a single new species in North America, the Chihuahuan Meadowlark, which is being split from the Eastern Meadowlark. Already birders on FB and other online forums are celebrating the addition of a new species for their bird lists.
[Chihuahuan Meadowlark - eBirdHandsome grassland bird found from the southwestern US to central Mexico. It was long considered a subspecies of the widespread Eastern Meadowlark, but recent research has shown that it should be treated as a distinct species. In the limited area where their ranges meet, note that Chihuahuan Meadowl…Macaulay Library logo](https://ebird.org/species/lilmea2?ref=s3t.org)
**But just as the annual update *gives*, it also *takes away*, and the losses can have profound real world effects.**
This year one of the species being lost is Beesley’s Lark (pictured above), a rather unremarkable Old World lark previously restricted to a tiny geographical area in northern Tanzania. Going forward the Beesley’s Lark will be considered a subspecies of the Spike-heeled Lark, a much more widespread southern African lark that is easily seen throughout Namibia, South Africa and much of Eastern Africa.
In years past, most birders who have traveled to Tanzania have made special visits to the Engikaret Plains near Tanzania’s border with Kenya to see Beesley’s Lark. This was the only easy and reliable place to see this bird and its presence there was source of great pride for the local Masai tribesmen who protected its habitat and were always available to help visiting birders find it.
Sadly, the demise of this species probably means that international birders visiting Tanzania will no longer make the Engikaret Plains a part of their itineraries, and the end of these visits will not only eliminate the income the local tribesmen have been receiving in the form of gratuities, but also any incentive they have to continue protecting this unique grassland environment.
When their motivation for preserving the grasslands is gone these formerly protected plains will quickly become overgrazed and unsuitable habitat, not only for what was Beesley’s Lark, but also for most of the other grassland species that have historically been found there.
So as we celebrate the armchair addition of Chihuanhuan Meadowlark to our life lists, we should also remember that the annual changes to avian taxonomy, that for us are just a regular feature of the sport of birdwatching, can have serious and negative economic and environmental consequences for people in other parts of the world. In 2023 there will be people in a far away, rural Tanzanian community who feel this sting.
Jan Hansen
*Ralph here with a comment: In the years I've known Jan, I've always appreciated his dedication to helping people understand the profound value of nature's services and the exquisite living things who share the planet with us. Learn about how you can join one of his [upcoming bird trips here](https://www.otusasiotours.com/?ref=s3t.org).*
---
## 💬 Final Note
Special welcome to all of the new subscribers! Thanks to each of you for signing up! I look forward to learning together.
Ralph
*Opinions mine. Not financial advice. I may hold assets discussed.*
---
## 🧭 S3T Guide for Budget Season -
### Downloadable Guide for Introducing Smarter Annual Planning & Budgeting at your Company
Leaders focused on positive team culture have long worried about the divisive often demoralizing effects that come with status quo methods we use during annual planning.
Leading companies are learning how to turn budget season into a company wide conversation instead of a zero sum game, and gather *insights* not just numbers.
**Download the S3T Guide below to learn how.** The Guide shows you how to *reframe Budget Season* in a way that puts your organization in a smarter, more positive position for success in the coming year. The Guide includes step by step instructions and a suggested worksheet.
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T.ORG - Oct 30 - Halloween, Big Tech & Crypto, Fiber, Iranian Women's Rights, DAO Best Practices, Genetic Rescue, Ghosts...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/oct-30-halloween/
Last updated: 2022-11-13T02:44:50.000Z
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T.ORG - Oct 23 - Diwali, MidTerms, EU & Metaverse, Deflection, AI Bots, Oktoberfest Pizza, Finch forecast...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-oct-23-diwali/
Last updated: 2022-11-13T02:46:08.000Z
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T.ORG - Oct 16 - Strong economy, AI 4 Math, DeFi hacks, $ General, Kotter's, Sandwiches, Oysters
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-org-oct-16/
Last updated: 2022-10-28T15:49:32.000Z
## 📈 Macro / Headlines / Trends
### Inflation and the US Economy
This week's inflation report showed [higher than expected inflation in spite of rate hikes](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/13/consumer-price-index-september-2022-.html?ref=s3t.org) reinforcing expectations that the Fed will raise rates further.
HBR has a [helpful explainer on the current strength of the US economy](https://hbr.org/2022/10/the-curse-of-the-strong-u-s-economy?ref=s3t.org) \- manufactured goods are down, but *services and experiences* are going strong. Large portions of the economy at least in western/developed nations were already headed this direction. Covid and supply chain issues imposed temporary impacts but the longer trend persists.
So what is going on?
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T.ORG - Oct 9 Indigenous People, Climate Change Crossfire, Macro Regime Change, Ferguson Pattern, Pickled Peppers...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-oct-12-indigenous-people/
Last updated: 2022-11-01T21:43:29.000Z
## 📈 📉 Macro / Headlines / Trends
### Inflation
Unemployment fell to 3.5%, [causing markets to drop on fears](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/06/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html?ref=s3t.org) of more aggressive rate hikes from the Fed, reinforcing the narrative that inflation worse (**and more stubborn**) than originally thought:
> A thread about GDP revisions: it's not good. We have 4 takeaways. 1) Economy is more overheated last year than thought. Meaning: Fed will need to engineer more sustained period of below-trend growth to close output gap (1/4). [pic.twitter.com/NViQY2HNmj](https://t.co/NViQY2HNmj?ref=s3t.org)
>
> — Anna Wong (@AnnaEconomist) [September 29, 2022](https://twitter.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1575547742847631360?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org)
### Where did we get the 2% the Inflation Target Anyway?
From New Zealand. [The full story](https://qz.com/2022696/where-did-the-feds-2-percent-inflation-target-come-from/?ref=s3t.org) illustrates what a "small world" central banking can be.
Concern is mounting that the [Fed's zeal](https://news.yahoo.com/fed-officials-won-t-relent-133000896.html?ref=s3t.org) to hit its 2% inflation target [will cause it to overcorrect](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-delayed-inflation-fight-sparks-fears-policy-overcorrection-2022-10-05/?ref=s3t.org), and even [Fed officials seem to be diverging](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-01/fed-officials-begin-to-split-on-the-need-for-speed-to-peak-rates?ref=s3t.org#xj4y7vzkg) in their views on how to proceed. As Adam Tooze worries, Fed policymakers are [driving a polycrisis](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/07/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-adam-tooze.html?ref=s3t.org) that may ultimately burn bridges with nations deeply impacted by the strong dollar - nations who have to date enabled the US dollar's [status as the world's reserve currency](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/dollar-worlds-currency?ref=s3t.org).
The Economist sanguinely predicts [policymakers will abandon the 2% target](https://www.economist.com/special-report/2022/10/05/policymakers-are-likely-to-jettison-their-2-inflation-targets?ref=s3t.org). Others question the validity of the 2% inflation target as [this FT piece illustrates](https://www.ft.com/content/57e61776-bef9-4f8d-943e-d2678e921145?ref=s3t.org) (with helpful context on why the target is so problematic).
Enter the new (not so new) buzzphrase "Macro Regime Change"...
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T.ORG - Oct 2, Environmental Justice, Long Inflation, Tech Vendor Decisions, DeFi Insurance, Nopales, Marine Life and Hurricanes
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-org-oct-2/
Last updated: 2022-11-01T21:44:11.000Z
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T.ORG - Sept 25: Series I Bonds, Old Macro Guys, New Hippocratic Oath, WPSmartContracts, Urban Relationships, Autumn Reading, Mobile Bars, Feathers
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-sept-18/
Last updated: 2025-06-19T16:44:33.000Z
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T Sept 18 - Happiness, Hammocks, Wallets, Private Blockchains, Solar, Za'atar, Natural services...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-sept-15-the-merge/
Last updated: 2022-11-01T21:45:44.000Z
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T Sept 11 - 9/11, El Grito, Euroflation, The Merge, India #5, Crypto n climate, French toast, Hawk migration
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-sept-11/
Last updated: 2022-11-01T21:46:18.000Z
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T Sep 4 - Labor concerns, Fashion Week, Permanence of digital, Water innovation, Branded bugs, Hot sauce...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-sept-4/
Last updated: 2023-06-03T18:07:45.000Z
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T Aug 28 - Forceful Fed, Healthcare setbacks, Saudi shift, Web3 investment, Peach Salsa, Moyenne Island...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-aug-28/
Last updated: 2022-11-01T21:48:53.000Z
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T Aug 21 - BTC for payments, End of lock in, Cost of inequity, Influencing economics, Provence, Boletes...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-aug-21/
Last updated: 2023-07-24T00:28:00.000Z
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T Aug 14 - Inflation, job weakness, ETHW, Chilaquiles, Madtoms...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-aug-14/
Last updated: 2022-11-01T21:49:53.000Z
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T Aug 7 - Boomcession, Dissent, Digital Oil, Oyster Beer, Outerverse, Hound Dog Rock...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-aug-7-beer/
Last updated: 2022-11-01T21:50:19.000Z
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T July 31- Post quantum security, privacy, API3, Expertise-meshing, AI & the future of work, Baha wine, Humedales, Iceplants...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-july-31/
Last updated: 2025-09-18T01:15:07.000Z
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T July 24 - Living spaces, Malls, Smarter cities, Network states, Participation, Peppercorn beer, Armored bugs...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-july-24/
Last updated: 2022-11-01T21:51:03.000Z
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T July 17 - Defragmenting the enterprise, Why Web3 is better, dealing w skeptics, Skillets, Superworms...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-july-17/
Last updated: 2022-11-01T21:53:50.000Z
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T July 10 - Blockchain and healthcare, Who owns your data? Wayfinders, Udon, Wild Edibles...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-july-10/
Last updated: 2022-11-01T21:54:19.000Z
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T July 3 - Future of the Nation-State, BTC = Commodity, Capitalism 2.0, Bison burgers, Condors...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-july/
Last updated: 2024-05-25T21:56:51.000Z
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T June 25 - Roe and reframing, Macro, Supply chains & 3D manufacturing, elites, Roadtrip reads, counting birds...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-june-19/
Last updated: 2024-05-29T02:49:32.000Z
*From civil rights to manufacturing to finance, everything seems contested, under pressure and in flux. In times like these, your best option is to find a way to care for someone who needs it, create a safe spaces and happy moments. In so doing you'll be taking care of yourself.*
## Notes on the Nation
### Supremely Irresponsible
This week a partisan contingent of the Supreme Court recklessly granted state legislatures the power to micromanage women's healthcare. The sad decision to overturn Roe v. Wade marks the crowning achievement of five decades of deception:
- Take a medical procedure that should have never been debatable, and turn it into a political tool for locking in funds, votes and blind loyalty from a key segment of voters.
- Mislead said voters by taking a complex healthcare concern and dumbing it down to a "sanctity of life" smokescreen where the only solution is government overreach that is suspiciously inconsistent with conservative principles.
Sadly many - not all - voters on the religious right fell prey to this intentional misframing of the issue, because they confuse *deliberation* with *agency*:
- Deliberation - the process of judging what is the right decision in a given situation
- Agency - who gets to make that decision (the government? or the individual and her doctor?)
In recent elections, over and over I heard people of faith express regret over who they voted for (and the ensuing consequences), but believed they had no choice because of the abortion issue. These individuals are cornered, believing that the sanctity of life was at stake, all because their spiritual leaders failed to help them understand and frame the issue more accurately.
To me, when I think about what to do now, there is no way to avoid this: We have to help people one by one if necessary reframe and rethink what they have been led to believe about abortion.
### Reframing
The right to life abortion viewpoint [as crafted by political operatives starting in the 1970s](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/05/abortion-opposition-focus-white-evangelical-anger?ref=s3t.org) cleverly misframes the abortion issue and draws conscientious people into a seemingly valid logical corner:
- Focus narrowly ("abortion stops a beating heart"), do not allow any context about other beating hearts or consequences.
- Remove decision-making authority from women and medical workers and hand it instead to legislators.
- Enforce compliance by using the ultimate fear based threat for conscientious people: if you dare to question our political agenda you'll be marked as a heinous criminal ("baby-killer").
As noted above some operatives on the right gradually came to understand this formula as a very effective way to corner the consciences and control the votes of a significant segment of the population.
Here are points that attempt to correctly frame the abortion issue, in its clinical and personal decision making context:
- Abortion is a medical procedure that sometimes is necessary. It needs to be available and it needs to be safe. To be safe it must be regulated (ie accountable). To be regulated, it must be legal. There is no other way to approach this matter, unless you are willing to put women and children at risk.
- [Unsafe abortions are a leading cause of maternal deaths](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2709326/?ref=s3t.org) as evidenced by [what happens in countries where abortion is illegal](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2018/10/how-many-women-die-illegal-abortions/572638/?ref=s3t.org). As someone said, "you can't ban abortions, you can only ban safe abortions."
- One's personal position is not the same thing as a public policy position, or law that applies to everyone no matter what. Saying "I'd never have an abortion" is different from saying "I am so knowledgeable that I know that no one else in the entire world will ever need access to the medical procedure known as abortion."
- In decisions where there are multiple factors in play, the decision making process must consider those multiple specific factors. The person responsible for making the decision should never be forced to just blindly follow rules set by others who had no knowledge of the specifics in this situation.
- It is inappropriate to try to craft Biblical arguments for a blanket law that would apply blindly to a whole range of situations that one knows nothing about.
- It is hypocritical to profess deep concern for the unborn, while casting a blind eye to the plight of *their mothers*. If we are truly concerned for the unborn, then we will take action for the health, safety and financial security of *their mothers*.
- All of us, across the political spectrum can best honor our beliefs and our respect for life, for women and for families by working together to *solve the actual problems in play*, rather than playing into the hands of political opportunist: This means working together to better address pregnancy risks and complications, and working to understand and address why unwanted pregnancies occur.
The right's preoccupation with abortion has been politically lucractive but unfortunately distracted immense sums of energy and resources from the actual problems to solve. Reframing can help free us from the logical corner that crafty operatives have put us into so we can focus on what's truly helpful.
### Economic impacts of overturning Roe
Aside from the human rights impacts, the Roe v Wade overturn is expected to have economic implications for individuals, corporations and state economies.
- Employers are stepping up to [cover cost of travel](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/companies-react-us-supreme-courts-ruling-overturning-roe-vs-wade-2022-06-24/?ref=s3t.org) to states where abortions are legal. This will likely lead to increased costs of care.
- States that ban safe abortions may experience increased birth rates for which they are ill prepared. [State economies already lose $105B a year due to existing abortion restrictions](https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2022/06/25/overturning-roe-v-wade-heres-how-abortion-bans-will-hurt-state-economies-and-the-gdp/?sh=542b4b8d3c6d&ref=s3t.org) and that this amount will increase for states that criminalize abortions. See also: [NIH study on impact of abortion](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1508542/?ref=s3t.org) on birth rates.
- Researchers expect [negative impacts to maternal health](https://news.northwestern.edu/stories/2022/05/overturning-roe-v-wade-would-increase-the-already-rising-u-s-maternal-mortality-rates?ref=s3t.org), especially among vulnerable populations, as well as [an increase in child poverty](https://www.tc.columbia.edu/articles/2022/june/overturn-of-roe-v-wade-could-add-to-child-poverty/?ref=s3t.org).
Diana Green Foster, who led the Turnaway Study, [predicts 6 impacts of the Roe v Wade overturn](https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/06/08/the-end-of-roe-wont-cause-birth-rates-or-adoptions-to-spike-00037864?ref=s3t.org) supported by data gathered in her research.
💡
A study conducted at the University of California, San Francisco, [known as “The Turnaway Study,”](https://www.ansirh.org/research/ongoing/turnaway-study?ref=s3t.org) showed people who were denied an abortion and went on to give birth experienced an [increase in household poverty](https://www.ansirh.org/sites/default/files/publications/files/the%5Fharms%5Fof%5Fdenying%5Fa%5Fwoman%5Fa%5Fwanted%5Fabortion%5F4-16-2020.pdf?ref=s3t.org) lasting at least four years relative to those who received an abortion.
---
Photo by [Sonder Quest](https://unsplash.com/@sonderquest?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Blaming elites
Joshua Kertzer and Jonathan Renshon are [digging into "political elites"](https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/06/17/elites-kertzer-renshon-political-science-00039943?ref=s3t.org) \- who are they exactly, and what culpability do they have for what ails our nation today? You have probably noticed that American's on both the right and the left blame "elites" for problems in our society. The authors point out that there seem to be two kinds of elites:
- Conservatives are likely to refer to "the liberal elites"
- Liberals are likely to refer to "economic elites"
To me, the term elite is most likely our go to label for someone who has some kind of influence or policy making authority yet is "out of touch" in a way that causes their decisions to impose negative consequences on the rest of us.
There are a set of decision makers whose decision have a large impact on the decisions of others: either giving others good options to choose from, or giving them very poor options. Ketzer and Renshon are conducting research intended to better understand the phenomena of "elites" and their impact on society.
[How Elites Misread Public OpinionPolitical scientists are using experiments to get inside the heads of political power-players — and their findings have major implications for the future of American democracy.POLITICO.st1{fill-rule:evenodd;clip-rule:evenodd;fill:#fff}](https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/06/17/elites-kertzer-renshon-political-science-00039943?utm%5Fsource=pocket-newtab)
---
Photo by [Hendrik Morkel](https://unsplash.com/@hendrikmorkel?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Macro - New Territory
This week bitcoin seemed to stabilize in the 20-21K range after dipping into the 17K range over last weekend. The stock market jumped on Friday.
Some think [recession worries are overblown](https://prevedere.com/wb-economic-outlook-hurricane-or-clear-skies/?ref=s3t.org) while others [are expecting the worst](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/17/business/economy/inflation-economy-recession.html?ref=s3t.org). Whichever scenario you subscribe to, we are in [very different place than the big energy crises of the 1970s](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/energy/2022-06-07/markets-new-energy-order?ref=s3t.org). As noted last week, the current inflation picture has multiple drivers and will not likely respond to simple rate hikes.
This new Deloitte survey finds [strong interest in crypto continues ](https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pages/about-deloitte/articles/press-releases/deloitte-survey-shows-merchant-optimism-in-crypto-payments.html?ref=s3t.org)across broad industries including consumer goods and services, digital goods, electronics, fashion, food/beverages, home/garden, hospitality and transportation.
- 87% agree accepting digital currencies gives a competitive advantage in the market.
- 85% anticipate crypto payments will be ubiquitous in their industries in 5 years.
- 54% have invested >$1M towards enabling digital currency payments.
At this same time [several crypto bailouts are underway](https://www.theblock.co/post/153925/how-the-blockfi-bailout-could-signal-a-change-for-the-crypto-industry?ref=s3t.org), which I think will lead to some adjusted best practices and approaches. My 2 cents here is that institutional and venture investors will probably become more inquisitive about 2 things when making and guiding investments:
- How entangled different ventures, exchanges or portfolio companies are with other entities (and their risks).
- How exposed they are to "leverage" (loans that use their assets as collateral and could be liquidated during sharp downturns in the market).
In other words, **developing a thorough understanding of dependencies.** This will likely be a theme for regulators as well. In the meantime the current set of issues may still have widening impacts on the availability of capital in both crypto and non-crypto.
### Scenarios: Inflation and Supply Chains
A good and not so good scenario for inflation outcomes:
- **Scenario A. High Inflation with a Tight Job Market:** Job market stays as tight as it is now. Business continue to not be able to find enough workers: so wages go up, and wage-earners use higher salaries to weather the higher inflation.
- **Scenario B. High inflation but a Weakening Job Market:** Inflation concerns force people who left the workforce to return to the workforce because they need money to pay bills. At the same time however, high inflation *reduces spending.* Businesses then must reduce costs and therefore staff. In this scenario we'd see layoffs not just from venture backed companies (which has been going in earnest since \~May) but also from non-venture backed companies.
A key determinant for A vs B will be **the transition from global to regional supply chains** \- how quickly can this transition occur and how quickly can new regional supply networks be fully optimized?
As noted in this [recent ARK interview with Velo3D](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fyi-for-your-innovation/id1271691895?i=1000566502274&ref=s3t.org), there is a glimmer of hope that improved 3D manufacturing may help smooth this shift from a single global to multiple regionale manufacturing networks.
3D Printing as enabled by Velo3D can allow more consistent manufacturing quality across different factories in different regions. You set up the same equipment in each location, and then share the same design templates and data across all locations. In other words a single supplier could then scale up faster to work across multiple regions with greater consistency that could be achieved via traditional manufacturing approaches.
Interestingly, Velo3D is deliberately focused on solving the toughest 5% of manufactured parts that are the most challenging to 3D print. Once they've solved for the most challenging 5%, they may likely be well postioned take over the other 95%. **Players like Velo3D achieving multi-region scale over the next 2-3 years could make a significant difference in the way inflation recovery plays out.**
---
## Sensible Ideas
*I'm blessed to have a family with kitchen skills and the good sense to be always ready to celebrate life. So here are a few "sensible ideas" about good food and good times!*
### Dinner (and a book)
Kitchen the classic French Bistro in Chapel Hill is celebrating its 12th Anniversary this month, with a party on June 28\. [Click here for menu and ticket details](https://kitchenchapelhill.com/12-anniversary/?ref=s3t.org). Kitchen has been one of our favorite dinner destinations for years thanks to its excellent food and expertly selected wine picks from southern France. It pairs nicely with the nearby Flyleaf Bookstore. Find your summer read, and then get dinner :)
### Breakfast or whenever
A recent breakfast
Above, one of our favorite breakfast combos: fried egg with peppers and thick sliced bacon over Charleston grits. Spicy peppers with breakfast food and coffee is MAGIC (for me anyway).
BTW, How do you fry your eggs? I use olive oil...well, ok sometimes I also sneak in some butter too. In the link below, Sheela Prakash explains why olive oil works and how to make the perfect Spanish fried egg.
[The Best Way to Fry an EggOnce you try Spanish fried eggs, you’ll never cook them any other way.PocketSheela Prakash:extract_focal()/https%3A%2F%2Fpocket-syndicated-images.s3.amazonaws.com%2Farticles%2F5372%2F1597338299_k_Photo_Recipes_2019-08-spanish-fried-egg_Spanish-Fried-Egg_120.jpgcrop.jpg)](https://getpocket.com/explore/item/once-you-try-spanish-fried-eggs-you-ll-never-cook-them-any-other-way?utm%5Fsource=pocket-newtab)
---
Photo by [Dan Dumitriu](https://unsplash.com/@patriotbarrow?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Summer Reads
*A few favorite recommendations perfect for the beach or downtime in the hotel.*
### Blue Highways
Blue Highways is a roadtrip story about a man down on his luck who decides to live out of his van, driving the back roads and small towns of America on a [giant 13,000 mile loop around the country](http://www.bluehighwaysrevisited.net/The-Route.html?ref=s3t.org). I originally stumbled across this book while wandering my local library (highly recommended btw), and loved its unmapped serendepity so much I bought my own copy. As he travels, William Least Heat-Moon strikes up conversations with strangers who identify across the political and social spectrum but still - somehow - feel like neighbors.
[Blue Highways: A Journey into America book by William Least Heat-MoonBuy a cheap copy of Blue Highways: A Journey into America book by William Least Heat-Moon. Hailed as a masterpiece of American travel writing, Blue Highways is an unforgettable journey along our nation’s backroads. William Least Heat-Moon set out with... Free Shipping on all orders over $15.Thrift BooksThriftbooks.com User](https://www.thriftbooks.com/w/blue-highways-a-journey-into-america-by-william-least-heat-moon/247349/item/9237053/?gclid=CjwKCAjw5NqVBhAjEiwAeCa97R%5FHe08881SYFxJpjFarZSSA1uGG4i7Z0AvR9WXhtoKsCQfcfplNDhoCfiMQAvD%5FBwE&ref=s3t.org#idiq=9237053&edition=2361993)
### Kook
Kookis a roadtrip story about a surfer who hones his surfing skills on a roadtrip from Southern California down through the surfing hot spots of Baja. I am not by any stretch a good surfer, but I do love how surfing and just being in the ocean teaches you skills like observation and timing, and offers so many lessons for living. *You can't control the wave, but you can ride it* \- such a simple but powerful analogy for understanding life, markets, and opportunities.
[Kook: What Surfing Taught Me About Love,... book by Peter HellerBuy a cheap copy of Kook: What Surfing Taught Me About Love,... book by Peter Heller. With grit, poetry, and humor, Peter Heller, acclaimed author of The Whale Warriors recounts his remarkable journey of discovery--of surfing, an entirely new... Free Shipping on all orders over $15.ThriftBooksThriftBooks](https://www.thriftbooks.com/w/kook-what-surfing-taught-me-about-love-life-and-catching-the-perfect-wave%5Fpeter-heller/283229/?resultid=158c4a4e-4352-4b74-bf78-ac5488a5247d&ref=s3t.org#edition=5503308&idiq=5150055)
### More roadtrip reads?
[Richard Kreitner and Steven Melendez](https://www.atlasobscura.com/users/trip?view=articles&ref=s3t.org) collaborated on this [beautifully done interactive map](https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/the-obsessively-detailed-map-of-american-literatures-most-epic-road-trips?ref=s3t.org) that shows the routes of 11 epic roadtrip reads of American literature.
[The Obsessively Detailed Map of American Literature’s Most Epic Road TripsI am a freak for the American road trip. And I’m not alone, as some of this country’s best writers have taken a shot at describing that quintessentially...Atlas ObscuraRichard Kreitner (writer), Steven Melendez (map)](https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/the-obsessively-detailed-map-of-american-literatures-most-epic-road-trips?ref=s3t.org)
### Something else? Start with your favorite kids book...
Ever notice that you gravitated to certain kids books more than others when you were little? Why do different kids gravitate to different kinds of kids books? *And does this presage anything about their future?* **Katie Yee thinks so**: In this fun reading list, [Katie matches you up to recommended reads](https://lithub.com/what-you-an-adult-should-read-next-based-on-your-favorite-childrens-book/?ref=s3t.org) based on your favorite childhood book!
### Contranyms
And when you're doing your summer reading you might have fun watching for *contranyms*. The word "seed" is a contranym: it can have opposite meanings depending on the context in which it is used. "Left" is another one. How many can you name? Jot down as many as you can think of and then compare it to [Judith Herman's list of contranyms](https://getpocket.com/explore/item/25-words-that-are-their-own-opposites?ref=s3t.org).
💡
[Flyleaf Books](https://www.flyleafbooks.com/?ref=s3t.org), our local independent bookstore here in Chapel Hill [has a summer reading challenge](https://www.flyleafbooks.com/summer-reading-2022?ref=s3t.org). Flyleaf is conveniently located 2 or 3 doors down from the French Bistro, Kitchen (see Sensible Ideas below for details on their 12 Anniversary party coming up this week!).
## Nature Notes
###
Photo by [peter P](https://unsplash.com/@yongjinp?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### How to count birds
Have you ever seen a long undulating stream of grackles flying across the sky? Or an uncountable convention of tundra swans on a pecosin? When you see these large spectacles, counting them can be a challenge. The different ways people count birds *can also be a challenge for the researchers who aggregate data* from all the birding apps we use. So here finally is your complete guide to **the latest in advanced bird geekery:** A [standard way to properly count and report birds](https://support.ebird.org/en/support/solutions/articles/48000838845?fbclid=IwAR2nEJ95v27oMaV%5F1zFqMcs2bNmFsNWyr23-jBaPj2URWeAXDqh1qYIYEeo&fs=e&s=cl&ref=s3t.org). You'll thank me - well if not you, maybe the researchers will.
### Promoting climate health - the Well Done Foundation
Did you know there are approximately 2.15 million unplugged abandoned wells scattered throughout the United States? The Well Done Foundation promotes climate health by plugging orphaned or abandoned oil and gas wells. The effect of capping a well is one of the most instant, highest impact per dollar of any of the climate health organizations. Visit [WellDoneFoundation.org](https://welldonefoundation.org/?ref=s3t.org) to learn more and get involved.
---
## Final Note
A note about this week's headline art piece: The coat hanger has been a symbol of the urgency and importance of access to safe abortions. As of publication, stories are breaking about TikTokers and others [sending coat hangers to the Supreme Court](https://www.nbcnews.com/pop-culture/viral/people-are-sending-coat-hangers-supreme-court-tiktok-abortion-protest-rcna27195?ref=s3t.org) to protest the overturn of Roe. Some medical experts are cautioning about excessive use of violent or stigmatizing imagery because you never know how it can impact someone who is going through something right now. I hope I am striking an appropriate balance between making a point vs being uncessarily graphic, but welcome feedback.
Truly this is another heavy week - a time to be there for each other, and support each other as best we can.
Thank you again for subscribing and sharing S3T! Feel free to forward this to a friend and continue the conversation on the [S3T Discord](https://discord.gg/DmFwTtss?ref=s3t.org), [Twitter](https://twitter.com/RalphPerrine?ref=s3t.org) or [LinkedIn](www.linkedin.com/in/ralphperrine).
Ralph
*Opinions mine. Not financial advice. I may hold assets discussed.*
### S3T Jun 19 - Juneteenth history, Dads, BTC @ 17k, Consensus recap, Crypto Canon, Web5(!), Limpkins, Bobka...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-jun-19/
Last updated: 2022-11-01T22:09:22.000Z
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T June 12 - crypto bill, recession, this inflation is different, kids and climate, pollinator adaptation
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-june-12/
Last updated: 2022-11-01T22:12:05.000Z
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T June 5 - Mixed Messages, tech layoffs, finding winners, local currencies, new born ungulates...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-june-5/
Last updated: 2022-11-01T22:20:38.000Z
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T May 29 - Memorial Day, state of crypto, the build mkt, Web2 vs 3, why algostables won't die, fledglings, guns, chainsaws...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-may-29/
Last updated: 2022-11-01T22:25:07.000Z
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T May 22 - Layers, PMI, BTC drawdowns, Music partnerships, insect mimicry, urban birding...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-may-22-layers/
Last updated: 2022-11-13T02:47:11.000Z
*This week we have a special Change Leadership segment featuring an approach for driving change more effectively - planning tools and tips that work on personal, corporate or industry levels. In addition we note the ups and downs of crypto and an emerging new indicator some think may predict the price of BTC.*
## Macro: Web3 and Crypto
### Bitcoin Ups and Downs
[These Advisors charted the ups and downs of Bitcoin](https://eaglebrookadvisors.com/post/market-commentary-resilience?ref=s3t.org) over the past 10 years, specifically the intra-year drawdowns as well as the annual returns. The chart (toward the end of the post) illustrates their point: “*While bitcoin certainly draws down, it also disproportionately recovers.*” (Reminder: past performance is not an indicator of future results.)
In recent weeks [institutional investors bought the dip](https://decrypt.co/100542/institutions-poured-300m-into-bitcoin-funds-during-terra-meltdown-report?ref=s3t.org). (In this read, note also the reference to possible preference of Solana over Ethereum in the most recent investor activity.)
**Possible new indicator:** Some are starting to [track and predict Bitcoin prices in relation to the PMI](https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/bitcoin-eyes-record-losing-streak-stablecoin-collapse-crushes-crypto-2022-05-13/?ref=s3t.org) \- the Purchasing Managers Index. This long running index is a reliable indicator of whether the economy is expanding or contracting based on surveys of purchasing managers. A PMI above 50 indicates economic expansion while a PMI below 50 indicates economic contraction. The current PMI is 55.40 as shown at the link below. The charts at this link also show a persistent decrease in PMI over the past months. If this continues, some think it could impact BTC price negatively.
[US ISM Manufacturing PMIIn depth view into US ISM Manufacturing PMI including historical data from 1948, charts and stats.YCharts](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us%5Fpmi?ref=s3t.org)
### Music and a Web3
Make that 2 for Algorand: the Layer 1 blockchain seen by some as a competitor to Ethereum, Solana and others has now attracted a 2nd major music partnership. Recently news broke about a Napster partnership, now [Limewire is joining the party](https://decrypt.co/100704/universal-music-group-nfts-limewire-algorand-marketplace?ref=s3t.org). Go [here for context on how web3 is starting to impact the music industry](https://www.billboard.com/e/web3-music-guide/?ref=s3t.org).
Photo by [Robin Mathlener](https://unsplash.com/@robinmathlener?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Nature Notes
### Learning from Insects
**Scientists have identified the First-known** [**example** **of mammal-insect mimicry**](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/bats-buzz-sounds-mimick-wasps-bees-owls?ref=s3t.org): the mouse-eared bats produce sounds similar to wasps when captured in an effort to scare predators.
### Urban Birding
How many species do you think are in NY City? This team found 106 in 24 hours on May 14, 2022\. May 14 was the Big Day 2022 - an annual birding event sponsored by Cornell University. [Here is the full list as well as the interactive map](https://ebird.org/tripreport/44184?%5F%5Fhstc=75100365.2e4dc920e3c80200d52ad1471e3fa081.1640184579425.1651942585294.1653184717334.15&%5F%5Fhssc=75100365.1.1653184717334&%5F%5Fhsfp=1274705609&%5Fgl=1%2Avkl8ux%2A%5Fga%2ANDUyMzgwOTA0LjE2NDAxODQ1Nzg.%2A%5Fga%5FQR4NVXZ8BM%2AMTY1MzE4NDcxNS4xOC4wLjE2NTMxODQ3MjMuNTI.&ref=s3t.org#%5Fga=2.133189646.1031289231.1653184716-452380904.1640184578) showing where the sightings were made.
## Final Note
Thank you again for reading and sharing S3T! Feel free to forward this to a friend and continue the conversation on the [S3T Discord](https://discord.gg/DmFwTtss?ref=s3t.org), [Twitter](https://twitter.com/RalphPerrine?ref=s3t.org) or [LinkedIn](www.linkedin.com/in/ralphperrine). Hope you enjoy this week's special longer Change Leadership feature below!
Ralph
*Opinions mine. Not financial advice. I may hold assets discussed.*
---
***Special S3T 4Success Feature: Layers - a better way to plan and execute***
Photo by [Peggy Anke](https://unsplash.com/@instagramfotografin?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Layers - An Approach for Driving Change More Effectively
**Change leaders have to juggle multiple challenges,** maintaining current responsibilities and processes, while designing, building and driving adoption of next generation capabilities.
Whether you are driving change in your own life or in a company or industry, you want to move toward your goals as quickly as possible. This segment digs into how to manage your focus for best traction and momentum.
### The problem
We’ve been taught to think in terms of focus vs. multitasking. Focusing is good. Multitasking is bad. Focus and get stuff done. Learn to say no.
So goes the gospel of productivity in the 21st-century.
Most change leaders struggle with this because the duality of multitasking vs. focus doesn’t realistically describe the world they have to work in.
We imagine there must be these lucky beings somewhere leading change from within some resplendently serene bubble of focus. Clearly that's not us. So we must be failing.
### Why we need to rethink Focus vs Multitasking
Yes, you're supposed to be in control of your choices and how you spend your time.
But there are a few pesky little problems:
- The path to meaningful change is not laid out for you in a nice little Lego builders instruction book where success is guaranteed if you just follow the directions.
- You often don't actually know the exact next steps at any given point. There might be three or four possible next steps. You’re trying different things and gathering information to hopefully help you figure that out.
- Meanwhile, life is happening not just to you, but also to your family, your customers, your boss, your friends and even your pets.
These factors cumulatively drive all kinds of unforeseen new tasks and challenges. Some are legitimate unavoidable necessities. Some of them are risk aversion and resistance to change: delay tactics disguised as due diligence.
There's something else: we tend to think of focus as this perfect bubble where there is 1 thing and ONLY 1 thing for me to get lost in. And I don't have to think about anything thing else in the universe. An extremely rare circumstance :).
Focus is absolutely the right answer when you have:
- a clear task or path forward,
- a knowledgeable reliable person or team to do the task,
- an uninterrupted block of time in which you can do the task.
These 3 ingredients are often missing from the scenarios you face when you are moving toward your goals! You being focused is not a magic silver bullet that solves every situation.
So, if you’re hoping there's something better than chasing unrealistic ideals and feeling ashamed for not attaining them, you're in luck.
### Introducing Layers
Instead of seeing life as a futile quest for focus time, I have learned that its better to think of life (and the work that you have in your life) **as a set of layers.**
Think about the different kinds of goals most of us have:
- Personal learning and development goals
- Family goals
- Financial goals
- Work related initiatives
- Personal or community projects
Layers allows you to embrace the fact that your life has more than 1 thing going on in it.
But it also helps you not to lose track of the multiple goals you have, and where you are in progressing each of them.
With Layers, you think of your projects or goals as, well, a *stack of layers*. You can put the more important ones at the top. In your work, you move between these layers as you need to. You move as far as you can in one layer then drop to the next layer.
Photo by [David Clode](https://unsplash.com/@davidclode?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### Be like a fish
The "layers" approach has a simple analogy in nature: fish in a lake or ocean move up and down through layers in a body of water (called thermoclines) as temperature, oxygen and feeding conditions dictate.
If the temperature is cool they may move to the surface to feed. During bright hot parts of the day they move to cooler depths.
To me, there's something very settling or grounding about this analogy. The work, the endeavors of your life - these are your waters. Your ocean. Think of yourself as a fish moving through the water in a lake.
You are going to move through the layers of your work and you'll be in the right place at the right time.
Basic View of a Layers Chart
### Putting the Layers Approach to Work
Start by spending some time thinking about your goals and writing them down using the Layers diagram. Whether they are work related or personal goals, put them all down so you can see them all in one view.
1. Write down each of your goals on the right side of the page.
2. Place your more important must-do goals closer to the top and your more optional goals closer to the bottom.
3. Work backwards from each goal, and write out the sequence of steps and milestones that get you to each goal.
4. Write the date or timeframe when you want to achieve each goal if you know them.
Once you have your goals documented in the layers chart, you can start learning how to use this approach.
Sometimes you are in one layer, but then need to quickly shift to another. For example you may be working on a deliverable that you need to give to a stakeholder by a certain time. Suddenly you're interrupted by a team member with an urgent issue. You realize you have a goal of helping your team thrive and develop and this is an opportunity to pivot to that goal. See what’s going on and how you can help.
Its a different way of thinking about moving forward amid the natural events of life.
Keep in mind you can use Layers at different timescales. Below is a Layers chart, arranged in a weekly layout. Further down is another example for larger initiatives that may not all complete at the same time.
### Tactics for increasing your Success
**Spend time each day or at least each week looking at, and if necessary tweaking your Layers chart.** This keeps you mindful of your goals. Your mind will look for ways to advance and build momentum toward your goals.
**Show people your layers chart.** This gets other people engaged. I have found that people will help you in completely unforeseen ways and open amazing doors of opportunity if you just let them know what you're trying to achieve.
**Learn how to think constructively about your progress.** Consider the difference between these kinds of self talk:
"*I'm such an idiot, I can't stay focused!*" vs. "*I'm learning how to make progress toward my goals even when life is chaotic.*"
"*Geez I ALWAYS get interrupted, can't do nothing!*" vs. "*I pivot when there is an unforeseen opportunity to progress one of my other goals.*"
Be especially alert for pessimistic thoughts that cause *you* to hesitate on key tasks that move you closer to your goal: "*Oh they'll just find some excuse not to make a decision*" vs. "*I'm going to prepare a clear decision request and present it as soon as possible.*" Sometimes what slows us down is not others - its us! **The thoughts we hold about a situation influence our actions, the timing and quality of our actions, and the ultimate impact that our actions have.**
Here is a third way the Layer's chart can be used - this one is suited for showing larger initiatives and outcomes.
Feel free to draw or copy the figures shown here. Subscribing members have access to planner templates they can use to create, edit and share their own Layer planners.
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T May 15: Terra tumbles, stablecoin types, Soros attacks, Crypto policy, Napster and web3 music, anemones, enzyme recyclers...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-may-15/
Last updated: 2022-11-01T22:30:30.000Z
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T May 8: The Mother's Day Edition
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-may-8-the-mothers-day-edition/
Last updated: 2024-08-25T01:47:06.000Z
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T May 1 - Q1 Venture review, BTC 401k, Crypto reads, Now vs Next, trans milestone, migration dashboard...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-may-1/
Last updated: 2023-12-07T22:52:05.000Z
*The buildout of the working parts of the new financial ecosystem gains momentum amid mixed signals and uncertainty in the markets. Perhaps the biggest way to control for best outcomes lies in the creation of trusting collaboration between those who manage the Now and those who are building the New.*
## Crypto
### Broad Adoption Continues
In the current market sometimes it may feel like both the bears and the bulls are asleep :) but adoption of crypto and Web3 capabilities continues to advance across multiple fronts:
- Fidelity to [add Bitcoin to 401k plans](https://decrypt.co/98672/fidelity-let-workers-save-20-retirement-bitcoin?ref=s3t.org) this summer
- The [first house purchase with crypt collateral](https://decrypt.co/98655/ethereum-defi-project-teller-facilitates-first-uncollateralized-mortgage-loan?ref=s3t.org) opens the door to getting home loans without selling your crypto (ie without incurring a taxable event).
- Goldman [mulls NFTs for investment banking](https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/04/27/goldman-sachs-says-it-is-exploring-the-tokenization-of-real-assets/?utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fsource=rss&utm%5Fcampaign=headlines) “exploring NFTs in the context of financial instruments" per Mathew McDermott, global head of digital assets at Goldman Sachs, at the Financial Times Crypto and Digital Assets Summit this week.
- Central African Republic - one of the poorest nations in Africa - [passes legislation](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-61248809?ref=s3t.org) creating a framework for crypto regulation and establishing Bitcoin as legal tender.
- In Latin America [Panama moves toward crypto adoption](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-breakdown/id1438693620?i=1000558684707&ref=s3t.org) and Buenos Aires [rolls out new crypto provisions](https://cointelegraph.com/news/buenos-aires-to-accept-crypto-for-tax-payments-launch-dlt-backed-citizen-profiles?ref=s3t.org) including the ability to pay taxes in crypto.
Some of the language used in the Latin American announcements makes me wonder if this is the start of a new “offshore finance” hub based in Latin American vs the *Caribbean*? Are Latin American leaders seeing this as a chance to recreate offshore finance success that Caribbean nations have enjoyed (Or is this just a misunderstanding of the financial history of the region)?
Amid these developments, iconic invester Cathie Wood is doubling down on her earlier prediction [that Bitcoin will hit $1M by 2030](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cathie-wood-reiterates-1m-price-050603069.html?ref=s3t.org).
### Q1 Review and Outlook
Coinbase Ventures has just released their Q1 Review and outlook - with [excellent insights and charts in the full text here](https://blog.coinbase.com/coinbase-ventures-q1-recap-and-market-outlook-f84488b25ae9?ref=s3t.org). In addition to the adoption noted above, the buildout of crypto and Web3 infrastructure seems to be accelerating.
In spite of the crypto market downturn Q1 2022 set another record for crypto and Web3 deals with large activity in the cross chain infrastructure.
As noted before in this newsletter, the industry seems to be shifting from the FOMO based participation of 2020-2021 to more of a value based adoption here in 2022...ie from quick wins to long term value. A lot of building is happening right now. It may not be as splashy and fun as some of the previous phases, because this industry is growing up. There are working parts that need to be engineered and integrated before crypto can shoulder the heavy responsibilities that come with being the better faster cheaper more inclusive orchestrator of the world's economic activity.
> Coinbase Ventures: What happened in Q1?
>
> We had the Around The Block crew break it down. Observations include multi-chain proliferation, DeFi & NFT expansion, and GameFi 2.0.
>
> Full details here 👉 [https://t.co/aCcMxBKfWe](https://t.co/aCcMxBKfWe?ref=s3t.org) [pic.twitter.com/y4J8nc0UOl](https://t.co/y4J8nc0UOl?ref=s3t.org)
>
> — Coinbase (@coinbase) [April 21, 2022](https://twitter.com/coinbase/status/1517190989219123202?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org)
Coinbase Ventures has invested in 300+ crypto & Web3 teams building everything from layer 1 protocols, Web3 infrastructure, centralized on-ramps, decentralized finance, NFTs, metaverse technologies, developer tooling.
### Bonus: Crypto Reading List
*Highly Recommended:* If you or another leader you know is trying to get up to speed on crypto, don't miss [this an excellent reading list curated by Jump Crypto](Excellent reading list for getting up to speed on crypto and blockchain key concepts. Highly recommended for technology leaders architects and decision makers. This is the world you will be working and innovating in. https://github.com/JumpCrypto/crypto-reading-list). Links to best papers and resources organized in a learning progression, with coverage of both technical and business concepts you need to know.
Photo by [Josh Calabrese](https://unsplash.com/@joshcala?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Change Leadership
### Getting the Now and the Next to Row Together
Change leaders - whether in technology, finance, healthcare or other fields, often find themselves living and working in two worlds:
- The Now - the status quo and norms in which the current systems operate, and which the world depends on for mission critical functions.
- The Next - the emerging next generation capabilities - which promise to be better faster cheaper and more inclusive - and which often can be mutually exclusive to similar functions in the Status Quo
**The Now and the Next represent two kinds of people, who likely have a tendency to row against each other. How do we align and row together?**
This is a critical dilemma for so many change scenarios across our world today: *how is it possible to be objectively critical of the status quo - and remind others of the urgency to drive change - while at the same time preserving your ability to work with and not alienate people who have responsibilities within that status quo?*
### The starting point
Its helpful to start with the recognition that you - if you consider yourself a builder of the Next - are *also* part of things that aren’t optimal, aren’t the best, and aren’t the way they'll be in the future. And likewise if you are an owner of the Now, you may be keenly interested in innovating and driving change.
From that lens its easier to realize that all of us are really in the same boat - we all have things to learn. Its not accurate think in terms of us vs them. Its just us. We have to work together to learn and do better.
Whether we are among those who embrace the Next or those who embrace the Now, we need each other! Yes, some of us are more tied tightly to and maybe have a stake in the status quo, while others of us have a stake in the next chapter. That’s OK we still need each other.
### Carefully planned transitions
Think of this analogy:
If you’re adding a new addition to your house, or if you’re setting up a new system, there is always an element of the old that can’t just be unplugged "right now." A transition is needed. Especially when thousands or millions of people depend upon what is being transitioned.
The transition has to be carefully and thoughtfully planned and executed with close partnership between those who own the Now and those who are building the New.
This is tricky. Working relationships always require the management of personal fears:
- Those who own the Now may fear the Next isn't fully baked, and there will be big messes to clean up. Owners of the Now - the highly effective ones - are trained and wired to be wary of unnecessary or careless change because it causes instability and risk. The messy history of innovation fully justifies their perspective.
- Those building the Next fear that those who own the Now will resist and delay the Next. Builders of the Next are hard wired to be very sensitive to delays and resistance to change. Their fear also is justified: those who benefit from the current status quo may resist change because it threatens the margins and benefits they receive from the current system.
### Working in a way that builds trust
The only solution that works is building trust. We have to work closely together in a way that increases our ability to believe in each others motives:
- The Owners of the Now need to have reason to trust that the Builders of the New are not going to run ahead of them and ignore their expertise and perspectives.
- The Builders of the Next need to have reason to trust that the Owners of the Now are not milking the status quo for their own comfort, and are truly committed to moving toward change every day.
This kind of working relationship model requires change leaders to question the popular "disruption" mindset which sends vibes like:
- You're obsolete, You will be replaced
- We'll do to you like Netflix did to Blockbuster
- We're the future, You're Not.
These are alienating, threatening messages. Their most likely result will be to slow down the important change, and spawn mistrust and wasteful conflict.
In addition to trust, there needs to be a healthy respect for the roles played by the Now and the Next:
- Those who manage the Now, have the heavy responsibility of managing stable operations of mission critical functions for their part of the world's systems. This is not easy work. It is indispensable. The Builders of the Next could not do what they do, if the Owners of the Now were not doing what they do.
- Those who build the Next, have the heavy responsibility of de-risking the future while providing future job security and continued relevance for the Owners of the Now. This also is not easy, and it is indispensable.
And keep in mind, these roles can reverse. Today's new systems are tomorrows legacy systems. Today's operators can be tomorrow's innovators and vice versa.
### Collaboration vs acquiescence
To be clear, non of this should suggest that its ok to condone wrong behavior - inequities, damaging or harmful practices need to be called out. But in almost every example that I can think of it is possible to objectively point out where incumbents are contributing to things that are wrong, while at the same time recognizing that people within those incumbents are trying very hard to change the wrongs and do what’s right. In addition those incumbents are usually making progress on changing and have advanced - perhaps slowly - beyond where they were at some previous point. The art is to continue that progress and even accelerate it. Work together on new solutions that allow it to happen sooner.
Its important to help people see the clear line between between "milking the system" versus changing it. As noted above, systems that exist today often provide certain margins and benefits for insiders, while tossing problems and inequities to the rest. So yes, those who benefit from the current system may be tempted to resist change.
Perhaps this is what makes change leadership such a fascinating discipline to learn about: it resides at the crux of being
- alert to the fears and trust levels of your collaborators
- thoughtful about transitions
- open to learning how to do better.
It just may be the Olympics of diligence, humility and collaboration.
## Nature Notes
### Birdcast rolls out new Migration Dashboard
Previously Birdcast offered predictive and realtime maps showing migratory activity for each evening. Now they have added a new Bird [Migration Dashboard](https://birdcast.info/migration-tools/migration-dashboard/?ref=s3t.org) with additional tools that show much more detailed radar based measurements for nocturnal bird migration. You can enter a zip code and see specific data from that location.
[Migration Dashboard - BirdCastExplore nightly migration data in your regionCornell Lab of Ornithology](https://dashboard.birdcast.info/?%5Fgl=1%2a190mg5s%2a%5Fga%2aMTQ2NzE1MjgxNi4xNjQ1OTAwNzk2%2a%5Fga%5FQR4NVXZ8BM%2aMTY1MTMyMTExNS4yLjEuMTY1MTMyMTIwNC42MA..&ref=s3t.org)
Photo by [Fredrik Solli Wandem](https://unsplash.com/@fredrikwandem?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### New Milestone for Legendary Iditarod Dog Sled Race
This past month Apayauq Reitan became the [First Trans Woman to Complete the Iditarod Trail Sled Dog Race](https://www.outsideonline.com/outdoor-adventure/snow-sports/transgender-musher-iditarod-apayauq-reitan/?ref=s3t.org). *Historic first and a wonderful achievement for* [*Apayauq*](https://twitter.com/Apayauq1?ref=s3t.org) set against the backdrop of the Alaska wilderness.
In the story link above, I was especially touched to read about the Red Lantern award given to Apayauq. It is given to the last finisher, and has the significance of "*We are all home safe*."
For me that phrase was stunning and inspiring reminder that we all need to care for our trans neighbors - young and old - in such a way that ALL feel that they are finally "*home safe.*" Each of us can do our part through kindness and support.
You can learn more about the Iditarod race at the [official Iditarod website](https://iditarod.com/?ref=s3t.org), or check out this National Geographic feature - [5 Surprising Facts](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/travel/article/140308-iditarod-dogs-sled-race-alaska-willow-science?ref=s3t.org) about the race.
> Defeating the "bioligical advantage of trans women" narrative by being literally the slowest musher to finish the Iditarod this year 😂😂😂
>
> — Apayauq (She/Her) ❄🏳️⚧️🍞🌹 (@Apayauq1) [March 21, 2022](https://twitter.com/Apayauq1/status/1505804519480840195?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org)
Photo by [Fredrik Solli Wandem](https://unsplash.com/@fredrikwandem?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Final Note
Thanks again for reading and sharing. Hope this helps you get all S3T up for success! Feel free to forward this to a friend and continue the conversation on the [S3T Discord](https://discord.gg/DmFwTtss?ref=s3t.org), [Twitter](https://twitter.com/RalphPerrine?ref=s3t.org) or [LinkedIn](www.linkedin.com/in/ralphperrine). Have a great week ahead!
Ralph
*Opinions mine. Not financial advice. I may hold assets discussed.*
### S3T - Apr 24 - Environmental justice, Crypto's awkward phase, Investor cohorts, Climate DAOs, Solarpunk, tiny frogs, beach reading...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/apr-24/
Last updated: 2022-11-17T02:48:07.000Z
*Crypto may be entering a new phase of slower evolution, with more emphasis on utility and long term value vs hype. If so it represents a critical opportunity to design for equity and move toward achieving a healthy wealthy world.*
## Environmental Justice
### Why it matters
The phrase *"Environmental Justice"* (EJ) refers to the work of ensuring that ALL individuals live in healthy thriving communities safe from environmental hazards. Sadly much work remains, as evidenced by well researched examples in [Michigan](https://www.ecowatch.com/environment-social-justice-2646167147.html?ref=s3t.org), [California](https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/inequitable-exposure-air-pollution-vehicles-california-2019?ref=s3t.org), [Illinois](https://www.nrdc.org/stories/environmental-justice-chicago-its-been-one-battle-after-another?ref=s3t.org), [North Carolina](https://drum.lib.umd.edu/bitstream/1903/16245/1/Moore%5Fumd%5F0117N%5F15891.pdf?ref=s3t.org) (PDF) and [Louisiana](https://www.nrdc.org/sites/default/files/toxic-wastes-and-race-at-twenty-1987-2007.pdf?ref=s3t.org) (PDF: see Ch6 for in depth analysis related to Katrina).
Each of these cases (and many others) reveal patterns in US urban planning that consistently result in people of color living close to environmental hazards - in disproportionately higher numbers. The patterns include practices like [redlining](https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.estlett.1c01012?ref=s3t.org) (discriminatory mortgage appraisal practices used against neighborhoods of color) and doing too little too late to address environmental safety issues.
### History
The concept of and need for Environmental Justice came to national consciousness in the 1980's largely due to the efforts of [Dr Robert Bullard](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/environmental-justice-origins-why-finally-getting-the-attention-it-deserves?ref=s3t.org) \- today considered to be the [Father of Environmental Justice](https://www.ehn.org/environmental-justice-2646185608/particle-21?ref=s3t.org).
The EPA has established a sound definition of Environmental Justice and a set of grants, a [strategic plan](http://nepis.epa.gov/Exe/ZyPDF.cgi/P100DFCQ.PDF?Dockey=P100DFCQ.PDF&ref=s3t.org) (PDF), and [best practices](https://www.epa.gov/environmentaljustice/environmental-justice-and-national-environmental-policy-act?ref=s3t.org). The emphasis seems to be on assessing needs and enabling public participation in discussions. Not so much emphasis on concerted action - and the planning docs are dated (2006, 2014, etc).
[Environmental Justice | US EPAThis site provides EJ policy, information resources, compliance and enforcement data tools and community outreach activities. Additional topics are grants and program info documents, federal advisory committee and interagency working group activities.US EPA](https://www.epa.gov/environmentaljustice?ref=s3t.org)
### Prospects for Change
Now a new generation is learning about environmental justice (see Solarpunk storytelling Tweet below) and some are already thinking about how [Web3 capabilities might be able to help with environmental justice](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-13/how-web3-nfts-and-daos-could-help-climate-action?ref=s3t.org).
Here is a list of [18 Web3 Initiatives focused on environmental justice](https://causeartist.com/climate-and-crypto-web3-projects/?ref=s3t.org). One of my favorites is [Rewilder](https://rewilder.xyz/?ref=s3t.org), which coordinates the purchase of land for conservation. At the link scroll down to the section titled "The Dawn of Crypto Native Non-Profits" for a short list illustrating how non profit core competencies are being enabled via web3.
Another early stage example: the [All for Climate DAO](https://dao.allforclimate.earth/?ref=s3t.org) offers a glimpse of what a decentralized approach to coordinating and funding environmental initiatives might look like. This group uses [opencollective](https://opencollective.com/fiscal-hosting?ref=s3t.org) to host its fundraising activities (aka [fiscal hosting](https://opencollective.com/fiscal-hosting?ref=s3t.org)).
People are [ready to contribute](https://www.climatechangenews.com/2022/02/04/web-3-0-meets-climate-action-climate-weekly/?ref=s3t.org) to climate action, but we also need people willing to contribute and work toward healthier safer communities. People need to come alongside communities in need and find ways to lift them up.
It will take more than just new technologies. **New incentives are needed** \- incentives that align to and support the values we say we embrace today. Web3 innovators should explore how tokenization - creating a pool of value that uses a token (or coin) based approach to equitable participation in owning, governing and benefitting from that value. This concept is endemic to DAOs. (Note that it also is different from "[data-tokenization](https://medium.com/pikciochain/revolutionizing-healthcare-with-tokenization-d4d36a2ca6fe?ref=s3t.org).")
As we experiment and learn how to use the full capabilities of web3, it will be important to hold top of mind the question “how could we leverage this capability to enable more equity and move toward the achievement a healthy wealthy *world - not just a healthy wealthy few???*”
## Solarpunk
Solarpunk is "[science fictions newest genre](https://damiengwalter.com/2022/01/16/what-is-solarpunk/?ref=s3t.org)" and a [design culture](https://builtin.com/greentech/solarpunk?ref=s3t.org) that envisions positive future outcomes where humanity successfully figures out how to live sustainably. It seems to be an attempt to move beyond the distopian pessimism and tell stories about crafting successful solutions to climate change and social issues. Goodreads has a [list of Solarpunk books here](https://www.goodreads.com/list/show/89580.Solarpunk?ref=s3t.org). Below is a link to winners from a recent Solarpunk story writing contest with entries from children, teens and adults.
> "Strawberry Valley" - this was made for Rebecca Spring's short story "Blood Oil", one of the winners in the teen category of [@ExtinctionR](https://twitter.com/ExtinctionR?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org) and [@xrwordsmiths](https://twitter.com/XRWordsmiths?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org) solarpunk storytelling contest. You can read the winning stories at: [https://t.co/tTgS8sVznC](https://t.co/tTgS8sVznC?ref=s3t.org)[#Solarpunk](https://twitter.com/hashtag/Solarpunk?src=hash&ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org) [#XRebellion](https://twitter.com/hashtag/XRebellion?src=hash&ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org) [pic.twitter.com/mNdekeCilG](https://t.co/mNdekeCilG?ref=s3t.org)
>
> — Q1R0Z (@Q1R0Z) [March 2, 2022](https://twitter.com/Q1R0Z/status/1499151202151550979?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org)
## Crypto's Awkward Phase
### Interest in BTC waning?
Bloomberg has noted an apparent reduction in Bitcoin trading volumes and associates this [with the rising interest rates](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-17/bitcoin-risk-reward-calculation-is-being-upended-by-rising-rates?ref=s3t.org). Its a reasonable notion - after all the 2020-2021 heyday seemed to kick off with the publication of [Paul Tudor Jones'](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4345426-paul-tudor-jones-compelling-case-for-owning-bitcoin?ref=s3t.org) thesis: monetary inflation (stimulus and low interest rates) made bitcoin a preferred investment. Now in 2022 - the narrative goes - the Fed is wide awake and determined to stop inflation, so naturally folks aren't as bullish on Bitcoin.
At the same time, policymakers and the press continue to draw and redraw conclusions about crypto. Case in point: Some are now [comparing crypto innovation to the financial experimentation that led to the 2008 recession](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-breakdown/id1438693620?i=1000557851078&ref=s3t.org). This logic ignores the codependency of government and banking that enabled the housing bubble (what Michael Casey calls the “Warped distorted version of capitalism in which profits are privatized and losses are socialized.”) There is no similar codependent relationship in the case of crypto, but this notion that crypto might be a repeat of 2008 is compelling for some.
So - the narrative goes - not only are the authorities finally serious about inflation, they're also intent on preventing another 2008\. So naturally - the narrative goes - folks aren't as bullish on Bitcoin.
Maybe. Maybe not.
### Investor cohorts - when you started matters
First, I think it’s helpful to conceptualize the different classes of investors based on when they got into the market (and the price of Bitcoin was vs what it is today).
These are different cohorts who behave quite differently from each other. Investors who started in 2019 or earlier are in a very different place than investors who started in 2021 or 2022\.
And it’s not just the price difference - it’s what *you’ve lived through* in that longer time span - the dramatic up and down swings.
- If you’ve seen your BTC holdings rise 10x or more you are probably content to hold what you have and make dollar cost average additional contributions.
- Those who have gotten in recently are (in my view) likely thinking longer term, and are planning to leverage dollar cost averaging over that longer term.
In either case, these behaviors probably won't drive volatility or rapid price increases.
Second, as noted last week companies investing in bitcoin are now navigating ESG concerns about energy consumption and will not likely be making the kind of splashy announcements that drove market excitement and price moves in 2020 and early 2021\. They are continuing to invest. They just aren't bragging about it. And even if they did, its just not news anymore.
Commentators noted that the recent [2022 Bitcoin Conference in Miami was more subdued](https://www.theblockcrypto.com/post/141514/bitcoin-2022-loses-some-evangelical-luster-as-crypto-goes-mainstream?ref=s3t.org): more policy oriented and informational vs. the evangelistic anarchy vibe of the 2021 event.
### A new chapter
So is the market losing interest in Bitcoin? Or is it just normalizing it in the pantheon of smart investment options? I think its probably closer to the latter.
This is what mass adoption and growing up feels like. Its what NLW calls [Crypto's Liminal Phase](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-breakdown/id1438693620?i=1000558210179&ref=s3t.org) \- an *in-between period* when one thing has finished but the next hasn’t fully formed. "Crypto is no longer what it was, but is not yet what it is to become."
In other words, we're moving into a new chapter.
- In the previous chapter, demand was driving by FOMO - fear of missing out on outsized gains but with little understanding of utility.
- In the next chapter I think demand will be driven by the adoption of Web3 capabilities as their superior utility and efficiency becomes apparent.
It may take a while for this to happen. This is probably a time for being patient and taking the long view.
## Nature Notes
A Pair of Barred Owls at Homestead Park near Chapel Hill NC. Photo by Ralph Perrine 2022.
### Tiny new frogs discovered in Mexico
Fascinating set of [tiny frogs have been discovered](https://www.nhm.ac.uk/discover/news/2022/april/six-worlds-smallest-frogs-discovered-mexico.html?utm%5Fsource=join1440&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fplacement=newsletter) \- one so small it can sit on 1/4 of a dime (see photo in the article). An in-depth research paper on the frogs and their miniaturization has been published [here](https://bioone.org/journals/herpetological-monographs/volume-36/issue-1/0733-1347-36.1.1/Miniaturization-in-Direct-Developing-Frogs-from-Mexico-with-the-Description/10.1655/0733-1347-36.1.1.short?ref=s3t.org) on BioOne. BTW: BioOne is another excellent open resource for environmental science and biology research - [browse their subject areas here](https://bioone.org/browse/subject?ref=s3t.org).
[Six of the world’s smallest frogs discovered in MexicoSome of the species, described for the first time, are smaller than a 1p coin.Natural History MuseumJames Ashworth](https://www.nhm.ac.uk/discover/news/2022/april/six-worlds-smallest-frogs-discovered-mexico.html?utm%5Fsource=join1440&utm%5Fmedium=email&utm%5Fplacement=newsletter)
### Outdoor Lit for the Beach
Whether you hit the beach during spring break or summer (hopefully both), some part of you probably hopes to spend a dreamy afternoon reading on the beach. Here are a few great reads I own and treasure:
- *Writing the Western Landscape* is a collection of writings from both Mary Austin and John Muir - beautiful picturesque celebrations of the wilderness of the American West.
- *From Laurel Hill to Siler's Bog* is the 7 year nature journal of John Terres, the naturalist and former editor of *Audubon,* a rich chronicle of the flora and fauna ofMason Farm, the beloved biological preserve stewarded by University of North Caroliona.
- *The Woods Stretched for Miles* is a collection of nature essays and stories about the outdoor places and cultures of the South, written by 18 noted authors.
Links to low cost used copies of these books are provided below.
[Writing the Western Landscape (Concord Library Book) by Austin, Mary, Muir, John: As New Paperback (1999) | BellwetherbooksAbeBooks.com: Writing the Western Landscape (Concord Library Book): LIKE NEW/UNREAD!!! Text is Clean and Unmarked! Has a small black line or red dot on bottom/exterior edge of pages.abebooks.comAustin, Mary, Muir, John](https://www.abebooks.com/Writing-Western-Landscape-Concord-Library-Book/30876613547/bd?cm%5Fmmc=ggl-%5F-US%5FShopp%5FTrade0to10-%5F-product%5Fid=COM9780807085271USED-%5F-keyword=&gclid=CjwKCAjwx46TBhBhEiwArA%5FDjB6VjUsI47DZASzvxh40OjebJDlyfr8e4isljhiSEo9PxcNdVtNOLhoC2OUQAvD%5FBwE&ref=s3t.org)
[From Laurel HilL TO SILER’S BOG: THE WALKING ADVENTURES OF A NATURALIST by Terres, John: Near Fine Hardcover (1969) | Between the Covers-Rare Books, Inc. ABAAAbeBooks.com: From Laurel HilL TO SILER’S BOG: THE WALKING ADVENTURES OF A NATURALIST: First edition. Octavo. xix, 227pp. Illustrated by Charles L. Ripper. Near fine with cloth edges lightly faded in a near fine price-clipped dustwrapper.abebooks.comTerres, John](https://www.abebooks.com/servlet/BookDetailsPL?bi=5990571303&searchurl=an%3Dterres%2Bjohn%26n%3D100121503%26sortby%3D17%26tn%3Dlaurel%2Bhill%2Bsilers%2Bbog%2Bwalking&cm%5Fsp=snippet-%5F-srp1-%5F-image17&ref=s3t.org)
[The Woods Stretched for Miles: Good Paperback (1999) | ThriftBooks-AtlantaAbeBooks.com: The Woods Stretched for Miles: Former library book; Pages can have notes/highlighting. Spine may show signs of wear. \~ ThriftBooks: Read More, Spend Lessabebooks.com](https://www.abebooks.com/servlet/BookDetailsPL?bi=31150994459&searchurl=isbn%3D9780820320885%26n%3D100121503%26sortby%3D17&cm%5Fsp=snippet-%5F-srp1-%5F-image2&ref=s3t.org)
## Final Note
Hope you are having a great weekend and getting S3T for success in the week ahead! Thanks again for reading and sharing. Join the conversation on the [S3T Discord](https://discord.gg/DmFwTtss?ref=s3t.org), [Twitter](https://twitter.com/RalphPerrine?ref=s3t.org) or [LinkedIn](www.linkedin.com/in/ralphperrine).
Ralph
*Opinions mine. Not financial advice. I may hold assets discussed.*
### S3T Apr 17: Proof of Work, Energy Sink, Zero Knowledge Proofs, Biomimicry, Owls Wings, Mushroom talk...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-apr-17/
Last updated: 2022-11-17T02:56:26.000Z
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T Apr 10 - Games, Play to Earn, Redesigning Incentives, Cheat Codes, Care Economy, Dowitchers...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-apr-10/
Last updated: 2022-04-10T05:27:59.000Z
*In the metaverse era, gamification takes on a new significance and economic power as Web3 enables the persistence of ownership and identity across digital and physical domains. The dawn of a decentralized gamified world is a rare opportunity to redesign incentives and share the cheat codes.*
## Games
Gaming as an economic activity has captured the imaginations of investors and builders due to a couple drivers:
- Growth during the pandemic ([surpassing sports and movies combined](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/new-areas-investors-are-eying-in-the-exploding-global-gaming-economy-2021-03-03?ref=s3t.org)),
- Fascination with the [*decentralized* ownership, transaction and participation models being developed with Web3 technologies](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/voices/creating-a-gaming-economy-the-power-of-blockchain-decentralisation/?ref=s3t.org).
The non-fungible nature of blockchain offers individuals the ability to create *persistent* identities and assets that can be carried with them across any other games or metaverses they want to participate in. Digital - and games specifically - is finally gaining the ability to protect and persist personal property and identity.
This has profound implications for change leaders who recognize the need to correct the flawed incentives in our current economic status quo. It might just be the largest design opportunity in history.
### Gamification: your chance to redesign everything
Here is an example of how the play to earn economy is creating new kinds of financial arrangements:
*"Thitadilaka in Thailand decided last July that he wanted make more money than he could by simply playing on his own, so he and his friends decided to form what's known in gaming lingo as a "guild". *They allowed their NFTs to be used by people who wanted to play Axie Infinity for free, without investing in an asset, and took a cut of any winnings in return.*"* (see [full story at Economic Times](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/cryptocurrency/crypto-and-gaming-collide-in-high-risk-play-to-earn-economies/articleshow/90724966.cms?from=mdr&ref=s3t.org))
This kind of arrangement is possible because of the persistence of ownership that is possible in blockchain based web3 architectures.
Digging a little deeper:
- GuildFi has published [a guide for designing in game economies](https://medium.com/guildfi/in-game-economy-4f9d9d95a57e?ref=s3t.org).
- Lemniscap recently released a thorough landscape report on the emerging Play to Earn gaming economy ([Overview here](https://medium.com/lemniscap/economics-of-play-to-earn-gaming-economy-4a02a0ee03b?ref=s3t.org), [PDF full text here](https://econteric.com/markets/p2e-report/?ref=s3t.org)). The way they identify the key roles and their interactions is helpful for anyone trying to understand the opportunities in this space.
**Persistence of ownership and identity takes games to a new level:** You can now do more than simply build an intriguing fantasy worlds. You can now build useful economies inside games - economies that can be integrated with and impact the economies of the physical world. How is this so? These in-game - or in-metaverse - economies can carry and trade value that is convertible to value that is recognized in the physical world and or value that can be used in other digital domains. The World Economic Forum report on the future of the digital economy calls this the "[convergence of the physical and digital worlds](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/11/what-play-to-earn-games-mean-for-the-economy-and-metaverse/?ref=s3t.org)".
In other words, this is the chance to redesign just about everything. Specifically **we should focus on opportunities to intentionally redesign the incentives of our economy - especially the flawed ones in the current economic status quo.** The next section below explains why this is such an important point.
### Fun Economy vs Caring Economy
The Bankless [April 4 podcast *Into the Funtier*](https://podcasts.apple.com/mr/podcast/112-into-the-funtier-packy-mccormick/id1499409058?i=1000556171874&ref=s3t.org) is recommended for anyone trying to understand how the nature of work is being influenced by Web3 and its capabilities. At 1:10:35 an interesting discussion starts with a nod to Kurt Vonnegut's foresight that automation would mean fewer jobs. The reasoning goes like this:
- People will need to find work that gives them meaning and fulfillment,
- Flipping JPEGs and playing games to earn digital currency tokens is a way to find meaning and fulfillment the age of full automation.
This viewpoint sounds like it rings true and yet seems a bit disconnected from several realities:
- Its hard to claim that we're doing a great job taking care of people: we have serious food insecurity and health issues in the US and abroad.
- Not everyone can afford computers and Ethereum gas fees for minting or buying NFTs. Its like some people have the "cheat codes" but most don't.
- Right now companies are struggling to find enough workers to do the roles that they have (The talent flight to Web3 has already begun).
While its reasonable to say automation reduces the number of jobs, there are 2 deeper questions for us to wrestle with:
1. How are we spending our time and talent? The size of the gamified metaverse economy is projected by Citi to be $8-12 *Trillion* by 2030 ([Summary here](https://fortune.com/2022/04/01/citi-metaverse-economy-13-trillion-2030/?ref=s3t.org), [Full Report PDF](https://ir.citi.com/gps/x5%2BFQJT3BoHXVu9MsqVRoMdiws3RhL4yhF6Fr8us8oHaOe1W9smOy1%2B8aaAgT3SPuQVtwC5B2%2Fc%3D?ref=s3t.org) here). For comparison, the US Healthcare Sector was [$4.1T in 2020](https://www.cms.gov/Research-Statistics-Data-and-Systems/Statistics-Trends-and-Reports/NationalHealthExpendData/NationalHealthAccountsHistorical?ref=s3t.org), and is [projected to be $6.8T in 2030](https://www.cms.gov/newsroom/press-releases/cms-office-actuary-releases-2021-2030-projections-national-health-expenditures?ref=s3t.org). Let's hope that all that energy, time and talent is doing more than collecting NFTs and waging virtual battles in fantasy worlds.
2. What kind of work *needs* our focus? Work that can be automated is only one category of the kind of work that is needed. When we say "jobs" we are usually thinking about a very narrow subset of the total work to be done, and the value that can be interacted with. There is a large set of other work that is actually not fully reflected in the way we measure and value economic activity today. This set of other work is undervalued: it consists of critically necessary activities that are not properly priced and not properly resourced. This work ends up being done by people who are under-compensated or not compensated at all.
**Play to earn may be good. Care to earn would be *great.***
Photo by [Dominik Lange](https://unsplash.com/@the%5Freal%5Fnapster?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### Caring Work
Caring work refers to several categories of work that are extremely important in yet often overlooked under priced and uncompensated.
The Caring Economy is popularly thought of as care-giving directed at humans, for example caring for the elderly adults, for children, or people with disabilities. It does include this, but also includes taking care of the ecosystems and communities that people depend on for survival. The Center for Partnership Systems has a good framework they call [The Four Pillars of A Caring Economy](https://centerforpartnership.org/news-events/caring-economy-business-fit/?ref=s3t.org) excerpted here:
- "To value and make visible caring for the environment
- To value and make visible the work of care
- To invest in the development of early childhood education: our most important asset
- To pursue transparency and metrics in the Caring Economy: changing our measures of economic health"
Dr. Nancy Folbre, an economist at the University of Massachusetts, has a [particularly clear explanation](https://blog.dol.gov/2021/08/11/an-economists-view-on-the-care-economy?ref=s3t.org) that can guide policymakers, capital managers and investors to find ways to enable rather than stifle the care economy:
💡
*"I use the term care economy as the site of production, development and maintenance of human capabilities — a process very different from producing commodities that easily be bought and sold. A lot of the time and money that goes into the care economy moves outside the market..."* Dr. Nancy Folbre.
Good definitions of the problem and solution approaches are also available from the [International Labor Organization](https://www.ilo.org/global/topics/care-economy/lang--en/index.htm?ref=s3t.org), American University's [CareWork initiative](https://research.american.edu/careworkeconomy/blog/2021/04/02/what-is-the-care-economy-and-why-we-should-know-more-about-it-particularly-now/?ref=s3t.org) and [MIT's SOLVE](https://solve.mit.edu/challenges/the-care-economy?ref=s3t.org).
Photo by [sebastiaan stam](https://unsplash.com/@sebastiaanstam?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### The Opportunities and the Risk
As we enter a new era where digital and physical economies converge, we have exciting opportunities but grave risks.
The risk is that caring work - whether it’s caring for humans or caring for natural ecosystems they depend upon - will continue to be neglected.
In the 20th century, caring work was neglected in favor of industrial profit-making. In the 21st-century will it be neglected in favor of addictive metaversing?
Game designers, corporate organizational designers and Web3 builders have in common several powerful abilities:
- to create awards and meaning for activities that could be vitally important or completely worthless.
- to grant or withhold "cheat codes" - empowerment to achieve desired outcomes.
This is worth thinking about when designing, investing, building the metaverse. We could implement economic arrangements that span digital and physical worlds, and **offer proper incentives and compensation for caring work - in line with the true value that this work actually provides.** People could participate in fun and lucrative activities that make their families, communities and natural environments progressivey healthier and wealthier. Or they could get lost in virtual worlds full of violence that spills over into the physical world.
All of us have a deep need to feel like we are part of something that matters. Something that lets us learn how to contribute to something bigger than ourselves. Something that creates lasting benefits for others.
**Caring work does exactly that. Let's make sure it is a key feature in the Web3 economy.**
Photo by [Marjan Blan | @marjanblan](https://unsplash.com/@marjan%5Fblan?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Ukraine Updates
**Leaving Russia:** Politico has a story on the [thousands of antiwar Russian's who are leaving Russia](https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/04/07/russians-putin-fleeing-00023482?ref=s3t.org), many going to Turkey. Telling response when the interviewer asks a Russian young couple whether they are worried about how they will be treated abroad: “Nowhere are Russians treated as badly as in Russia.”
**Helping Out:** This [beekeeper is raising money to buy vehicles to help evacuate](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-61044961?ref=s3t.org) civilians from war zones in Ukraine. WP keeps a good list of [ways you can help](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/27/how-to-help-ukraine/?ref=s3t.org) the people of Ukraine.
**Power Shifts in the Crypto era:** Some leaders struggle more than others to come to terms with how power is shifting. For an extreme example, this [Foreign Affairs read](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2022-03-23/what-if-russia-makes-deal??ref=s3t.org) highlights Putin's complete failure to understand just how limited the traditional tools of statecraft are in the crypto era. Rolling tanks into cities doesn't prevent Ukraine from integrating into the Western economy. It just activates the crypto network, and accomplishes the opposite of what was intended.
## Nature Notes
### Dowitchers
This past week I was able to spend some time at the Mason Inlet Waterbird Management Area near Wrightsville Beach, NC. The weather was variable - sometimes sunny sometimes windy and stormy, but lots of birds and good photo ops.
I got to see groups of Dowitchers mixed in with Willets and other shorebirds. Dowitchers are unique: the young are raised by the males, and there are two types: Long Billed and Short Billed. Both have very long bills, but I was able to get a comparison shot here:
Short Billed and Long Billed Dowitcher - Photo by Ralph Perrine
Dowitchers feeding - windy rainy early morning. Photo by Ralph Perrine
Dowitchers and a Plover in flight over the marsh at sunset. Photo by Ralph Perrine
[Short-billed Dowitcher Life History, All About Birds, Cornell Lab of OrnithologyIn breeding plumage, Short-billed Dowitchers are lovely orange, brown, and golden shorebirds with chunky bodies and very long bills (despite the name). Look for them in wetlands across North America, from coastal mudflats to sewage ponds and flooded fields. Like the very similar Long-billed Dowitch…The Cornell lab of OrnithologyContact UsCopyright © 2019 Cornell University](https://www.allaboutbirds.org/guide/Short-billed%5FDowitcher/lifehistory?ref=s3t.org)
### Final Note
Thank you again - hope you enjoyed reading this, and feel free to forward to friends or join the conversation on the [S3T Discord](https://discord.gg/DmFwTtss?ref=s3t.org), [Twitter](https://twitter.com/RalphPerrine?ref=s3t.org) or [LinkedIn](www.linkedin.com/in/ralphperrine). Have a great week!
Ralph
*Opinions mine. Not financial advice. I may hold assets discussed.*
### S3T April 3: Multi-chains, Eth killers, art, story telling, undocumented species, lawns...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-april-3/
Last updated: 2022-04-03T05:27:59.000Z
*Winner-take-all gives way to interoperable coexistence in the blockchain competition. Competitors and skeptics can be key partners, illuminating the way forward for change leaders willing to engage in creative story telling and inclusive strategy-making.*
## The Multi-Chain Future
### Competitive Narrative is changing
The previous competition narrative between Ethereum vs other chains ran something like "Ethereum is so slow/expensive that (the others) will eventually kill it." OR "Ethereum has massively more adoption and (the others) will never catch up."
This recent comparison of the [top so-called Ethereum killers](https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2022/02/10/the-top-ethereum-killers-compared/?ref=s3t.org) provides a good rundown of the competitive field and their prospects. Doubtful there will be much killing.
For me, it isn't a question of which chain will win long term. **Its more about *which chains will do well?*** Doing well comes down to
core value propositions offered by the different chains:
- Ethereum defenders like to point to the great developer ecosystem and the [thousands of Ethereum based projects](https://coinmarketcap.com/alexandria/article/ethereum-top-10-biggest-projects?ref=s3t.org).
- Solana advocates brag about how fast and cheap transactions are.
- Cardano fans talk about environmental friendliness.
### Questions Facing Ethereum
Ethereum has a much larger market cap than any of its rivals so far, but does face some challenging questions about its future - especially if the Ethereum community pins its continued dominance on the high number of Ethereum projects:
- How many of these projects are viable long-term? How many are based on value propositions that are meaningful to mainstream consumers?
- Will Ethereum ever be a consumer friendly technology that gains mainstream adoption, or is it just going to be a developer sandbox - a great launch pad for "under the hood" capabilities that are a level or two removed from end user experience and affordability?
- What is the core value proposition that Ethereum puts forward and will other chains be able to replicate it?
So far what we’re seeing is that when crypto *consumers* have a choice they choose a network that has lower gas fees and better speed. Will Eth 2 change this? In time to make a difference? I don't think Ethereum is in danger of being "killed" by competitors. But will it be able to retain its dominance?
### Interoperability introduces a new dynamic
A new set of players sense that "[No-one wants to be locked into one network, one play-to-earn game or one currency](https://bitcoinist.com/multi-chain-evolution-why-blockchains-future-is-interoperable/?ref=s3t.org)." and are driving interoperability to make the multi-chain world seamless for end users with different use cases. For glimpses of where this is headed, consider Aave v3's new [portal and cross-chain accounting](https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2022/03/16/defi-platform-aave-lauches-v3-with-cross-chain-swaps-front-and-center/?ref=s3t.org).
Expect the different chains to key off of each other, finding better and better ways to up their game - like [Polygon's move to Zero Knowledge Proofs in anticipation of Ethereum’s shift to Proof of Stake](https://thedefiant.io/polygon-zero-knowledge-proofs/?ref=s3t.org). Likewise, Ethereum v2 improves its environmental cred by [reducing Ethereums energy consumption by an astounding 99%](https://ethereum.org/en/energy-consumption/?ref=s3t.org).
This won't be a zero sum game. Different chains have different developer communities. Different kinds of users have different needs. Different kinds of Layer 1 and 2 chains will fit those different needs. In other words I think there will be a set of winners.
Taken together these points support an investor thesis that anticipates the interoperable coexistence of multiple chains.
### Blockchains are like Cities
[Haseeb Qureshi](https://medium.com/@hosseeb?source=post%5Fpage-----564327013f86-----------------------------------) argues that its misleading to think of competing blockchains the same way you'd think of social media or other technology platforms. Instead its more accurate to think of [blockchains as the new cities](https://medium.com/dragonfly-research/blockchains-are-cities-564327013f86?ref=s3t.org). I think it's a good analogy - cities belong to economic ecosystems, exchange value, compete and attract citizens who like the unique mix of capabilities offered by a specific city. We don't ask "Which city will win over all the other cities?" We intuit that there will always be multiple cities.
It will be interesting to watch the market caps of Cardono, Solana and Polkadot - Ethereum's closest (but still distant) competitors. Algorand will continue to grow its [community of 500 global organizations building projects](https://www.algorand.com/ecosystem?ref=s3t.org) on its ecosystem ([Directory here](https://developer.algorand.org/ecosystem-projects/?ref=s3t.org)). Tezos is tiny by comparison, but this year is executing on [some ambitious gaming plans](https://esportsinsider.com/2022/03/misfits-crypto-tezos/?ref=s3t.org).
![The Night Train, [undated, 19th Century]
By: David Cox](https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1577083164837-7082127bd3ff?crop=entropy&cs=tinysrgb&fit=max&fm=jpg&ixid=MnwxMTc3M3wwfDF8c2VhcmNofDR8fEJpcm1pbmdoYW0lMjAlMjBUcnVzdHxlbnwwfHx8fDE2NDg5NTE3MjY&ixlib=rb-1.2.1&q=80&w=2000)
Photo by [Birmingham Museums Trust](https://unsplash.com/@birminghammuseumstrust?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## NFTs Flip Fine Art
Professional art appraisers are now beginning to focus on appraising NFTs. [Carolyn Taylor in this interview](https://www.theblockcrypto.com/post/139643/a-professional-art-appraiser-explains-why-valuing-an-nft-is-totally-different-than-judging-a-painting?ref=s3t.org) shares how to value NFT art - it’s different from traditional art appraisal and different goals can lead to different appraisals. Interesting angles I hadn't thought of.
Her firm the [Appraisal Bureau](https://appraisalbureau.com/?ref=s3t.org) works with owners to help them appraise the pieces they have.
💡
***In 2021, collectors spent 5x more on NFTs than on fine art at auction.*** \- [The Block](https://www.theblockcrypto.com/post/139643/a-professional-art-appraiser-explains-why-valuing-an-nft-is-totally-different-than-judging-a-painting?ref=s3t.org)
The estimate above claims 5x more spent on NFTs vs fine art. ArtNews published another estimate suggesting [it might be closer to 3x](https://www.artnews.com/art-news/market/2021-nft-sales-report-1234613782/?ref=s3t.org). Either way, its significant. Interesting point: some of the higher priced NFTs were purchased by groups who were able to organize thanks to the DAO functionality available in the crypto space.
Photo by [Håkon Grimstad](https://unsplash.com/@grimstad?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Change Leadership
### Partnering with Skeptics
Those leading and investing in change often face skepticism and resistance. Metamorphosis is part of life, but is rarely welcomed outright - at least by humans. Caitlin Long - a veteran banker turned crypto exec - shares key insights in an [interview on how JP Morgan Flipped Goldman Sachs in Crypo](https://decrypt.co/96284/caitlin-long-how-jp-morgan-flipped-goldman-sachs-in-crypto?ref=s3t.org). The interview is notable in its review of the current crypto standings of Goldman (early crypto advocate) vs JP Morgan (hesitant adopter). Her insights suggest that skeptics and resistors may actually play a positive role in creating more lasting, more comprehensive embrace of change.
💡
*"\[The CTO\] was so skeptical, and I loved working with him because he really forced me to learn and justify and understand where he was coming from"* \- Caitlin Long on how JP Morgan Flipped Goldman Sachs in Crypo
"\[The CTO\] was so skeptical, and I loved working with him because he really forced me to learn and justify and understand where he was coming from," Long said. "And it actually helped solidify my own views of especially Bitcoin but but crypto more broadly."
Fascinating read and great example of constructive partnership with stakeholders who are initially hesitant or resistant.
### Dismiss the Dismissive Attitude
Change leaders live through cycles that go something like this:
- In the beginning everyone thinks you or your ideas are crazy
- Then some start to come around, and momentum gathers
- Eventually what orginally seemed radical and new becomes the status quo.
After working and living through several of these cycles, it can be tempting to develop a dismissive attitude toward skeptics and resistors. That can cause you to miss valuable opportunities.
Far better, if you are able to **harness the skeptics and resisters to help you learn, develop your thinking, understand the pitfalls and work out the bugs.** Try to relate and partner in a way that shows you value their carefulness and are open to feedback. Easier said than done, but worth it in the long run if you want to enable sustainable enduring change. Honing your story telling ability can help.
### Story Telling: developing your ability to be strategic
This may sound strange, but *story telling is a critical skill* for engaging people in the change that is coming, and helping them to take proactive action. This, it turns out, is also one of the best ways to harness the benefits that skeptics can offer, while also dealing with resistance in a constructive manner. **Stories help people shift their perspective.**
How do you develop your confidence at understanding and telling the story of the future (what we sometimes call a 'thesis') so you can help people think more creatively and shift their perspective?
Jessica Stillman shares the key points of perspective shifting in this [highly recommended read on creativity](https://www.inc.com/jessica-stillman/creativity-training-perspective-shifting.html?ref=s3t.org).
To prompt yourself to tell a story of how things are changing, you can start by asking questions like these:
- How is the game changing in my industry, or in the way customers are trying to satisfy their needs? How will companies be forced to play the game differently in the future?
- What new "ways to play" are being introduced by technology?
- How are peers of my company (or industry) starting to experiment with those new ways to play? Are new competitors emerging?
### Influential Dialogue = Good Strategy Making
Individuals or teams who are hesitant to embrace a new approach are often concerned about the risks or things that are "not fully baked." One way to talk though this is to focus on capabilities becoming available, their value and what happens as they are adopted:
- Technology innovations often introduce new primitives or new foundational capabilities or new power dynamics.
- Different industries experiment (often at different rates) to see if they provide value for their specific use cases.
- Its helpful to look across industries and watch as they go through their respective adoption curves.
Working with your stakeholders - including the skeptics - to create a story that describes your path forward offers an inclusive way to plan and learn together. The more you value communication and welcome concerns and feedback, the more you set the team up for success.
You can take the story telling a step further: Write the story or press release that you want to be able to tell *at the end of the project.*
Why does this work? Intentional living is a process of creating stories and then living them out. If you can envision and tell those stories, people join forces with you and learn how to make it happen successfully.
Blue Gray Gnatcatcher - Hollow Rock Park, Durham NC
## Nature Notes
### Documenting Biodiversity
I continue to be amazed at just how much of the biodiversity of this planet remains undocumented and undiscovered.
Just a couple additional examples and reads I came across this week:
- Alexander Semenov Has dedicated his life to photographing - often for the first time - the stunning and bizarre beauty of [cold water invertebrates](https://news.join1440.com/t/j-l-zkylrhy-ittttjjhuh-il/?ref=s3t.org).
- Up to 40% of this family of [bat species may be still unidentified](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00776-2?utm%5Fsource=join1440&utm%5Fmedium=email).
When reading natural histories of species, I’m often surprised by how often I encounter frank admissions that “nothing is known” about nesting or feeding behaviors of relatively common species - or how often the known behaviors are based on 1-2 observations from decades ago.
The Blue Gray Gnatcatcher - a new spring arrival in the photo above - is an example. According to the [Birds of the World](https://birdsoftheworld.org/bow/species/buggna/cur/systematics?ref=s3t.org) (the definitive collection of information on bird species), little is known about its migratory behaviors. Seven subspecies have been proposed, but some need verification.
So much remains to be learned and discovered. And the exciting part is that now there are more opportunities than ever to get involved and contribute to knowledge of our biodiversity. [eBird.org](https://ebird.org/home?ref=s3t.org) and [iNaturalist](https://www.inaturalist.org/?ref=s3t.org) are a couple of great starting points. For more ideas visit [https://www.citizenscience.gov/](https://www.citizenscience.gov/?ref=s3t.org)
### Lawns Awaken
Its that time again. Things are growing. The lawn is awakening. This article caught my eye because we've always allowed and encouraged clover in our yard. The bees love it, and it turns out clover has a lot of other benefits as well.
[4 Reasons to Let Your Lawn Grow WildA beautiful lawn doesn’t have to be plain.PocketAngely Mercado:extract_focal()/https%3A%2F%2Fpocket-syndicated-images.s3.amazonaws.com%2Farticles%2F7626%2F1648160869_ScreenShot2022-03-24at3.24.42PM.png)](https://getpocket.com/explore/item/4-reasons-to-let-your-lawn-grow-wild?utm%5Fsource=pocket-newtab)
### Final Note
Thank you again for reading and forwarding to friends! To join the conversation, please visit [S3T Discord](https://discord.gg/DmFwTtss?ref=s3t.org), [Twitter](https://twitter.com/RalphPerrine?ref=s3t.org) and now [LinkedIn](www.linkedin.com/in/ralphperrine). Get outdoors, take care of family, and have a good week!
Ralph
*Opinions mine. Not financial advice. I may hold assets discussed.*
##
### S3T Mar 27 - AI, CarePath, Economics & Values, Baby Bonds, Gardening, Wisdom...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-mar-27/
Last updated: 2026-01-14T02:16:02.000Z
*Emerging technology and new innovations are offering crucial opportunities to better align economics to our values. Its idealistic but possible if we adopt a gardener's discipline of attentive daily cultivation - it works for gardens and individuals, communities, companies, portfolios and economies too.*
## AI from Here
In January 2022, after years of hyping an AI for medicine meme, [IBM quietly threw in the towel on Watson](https://www.hpcwire.com/2022/01/21/ibm-watson-health-finally-sold-by-ibm-after-11-months-of-rumors/?ref=s3t.org). Gary Marcus worries AI is [hitting a wall](https://nautil.us/deep-learning-is-hitting-a-wall-14467/?ref=s3t.org).
[Since 2006](https://towardsdatascience.com/the-deep-history-of-deep-learning-3bebeb810fb2?ref=s3t.org) a steady stream of breakthroughs in data capacity and processing power enabled breath-taking improvements in deep learning capabilities. But now, Marcus senses we've hit a plateau, and throwing more data at it doesn't seem to help. AI implementations have a mixed track record:
- Egregious errors when in control of a vehicle
- Non-sensical or toxic advice in conversations
Cem Dilmegani has compiled this very helpful [summary of what is sabotaging AI projects](https://research.aimultiple.com/ai-fail/?ref=s3t.org) \- lack of data, lack of the right talent, and lack of collaboration.
### Counter perspective
I suspect its not that the entire discipline has "hit a wall". Forbes noted in November that a generation of AI startups has [failed to deliver value](https://www.forbes.com/sites/theyec/2021/11/02/why-artificial-intelligence-startups-failed-to-deliver-on-their-promise/?sh=595d1a5a7e87&ref=s3t.org), but also clarified that there are exceptions.
Some practitioners have found ways to apply deep learning in ways that reliably deliver value. Unlike the [failure prone "AI for Enterprise" approaches](https://medium.com/thelaunchpad/your-deep-learning-tools-for-enterprises-startup-will-fail-94fb70683834?ref=s3t.org), these practitioners create specific solutions with a clear eyed understanding of what data is actually available to them, carefully iterate via tight cross-disciplinary collaboration, and govern for safety and ethics.
One example is CarePath, the [award winning platform](https://www.hcinnovationgroup.com/analytics-ai/article/21226970/the-2021-innovator-awards-secondplace-winning-team-blue-cross-blue-shield-of-north-carolina?ref=s3t.org) and governance framework that empowers data scientists to create high accuracy predictive models for healthcare. CarePath enabled the Healthcare team at Blue Cross NC to take a more streamlined and more effective approach to identifying and caring for members at risk of readmissions - health events that could complicate the recovery after release from the hospital. In 2021 this approach resulted in significant operational cost reductions as well as prevention of medical expenses.
(Disclosure: I am the founder and steward of the Blue Cross NC Innovation Garage, which created CarePath.)
### So what then is actually "hitting a wall"?
Maybe what's hitting a wall is the assumption that we can use AI to make things happen without us paying attention - as strongly implied by the common phrase "intelligent automation". That somehow AI can relieve us of the need to be attentive. Maybe this kind of aspiration deserves to hit a wall.
In [this twitter conversation](https://twitter.com/emilymbender/status/1504523576837238792?s=21&ref=s3t.org) Emily Bender highlights just how misguided the ideation of leading AI labs can be. And the replies in Bender's thread go straight to the heart of the matter - *values -* and how easy it is for all of us to talk about them but how hard it is to actually live by them - especially when building new technology capabilities like AI.
### The question to ask
If you are a change leader focused on creating intelligent agents, a great question to ask: *Intelligent agents serving whom?*
- Serving the tech-elite? - endowing them with armies of intelligent reliable agents sent out into the world to extract profit from every human activity? Replacing and exploiting humans?
- Serving those in need? - as in the case of Blue Cross NC, a not-for-profit serving its members with the stated purpose of "better healthcare for all." In other words, using AI to *empower and enhance* \- not replace - humans.
Being part of the journey that resulted in the CarePath platform taught me just how much the AI space requires you to pay *more attention not less.* (More about this skill of attentive cultivation in Nature Notes below - the segment titled "On Gardening.")
### How Innovation impacts economics and values
Emerging technology and new innovations - can offer crucial opportunities to better *align economics to our values*. The pattern of history seems to be:
- People live under a status quo of economic assumptions that don’t align to their values, believing (or being told to believe) that there is no other way.
- Once in a while, something disrupts that status quo.
We are long overdue for a similar disruption. Today's emerging innovations are starting to give us clarity that there actually are better ways and that **our economics can actually support our values rather than work against them.**
This seems especially true where we are learning about how we can use technologies like AI, Blockchain and Cloud *in combination* and enable new capabilities and options we didn't have before.
The hard part is doing the work required to drive the change - design and build the new approach, show others what you are doing, and harness the skeptics and resisters to help you learn and work out the bugs.
Never easy, and always takes longer than it should, but its how good things come into this world.
## Finance: Addressing Inequality
As this Pew Research piece indicates, economic inequality [has been rising at alarming rates in the US](https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2020/01/09/trends-in-income-and-wealth-inequality/?ref=s3t.org), with lower and middle incomes decreasing vs upper incomes as shown in their graph here:
Pew Research Trends in Income and Wealth Inequality
As I've noted here previously, I believe one of the best things we can do to help financial equality is to help people not only prepare for and get good jobs, but also learn how to own and grow capital. That's why I'm intrigued by the ideas in the next segment on Baby Bonds.
### Baby Bonds
Thanks to [economist Darrick Hamilton](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-03-17/baby-bonds-eyed-as-way-to-close-u-s-racial-wealth-gap?utm%5Fcampaign=bw&utm%5Fmedium=distro&utm%5Fsource=yahooUS), Baby Bonds are being increasingly considered by US states as a practical way to address equity gaps. The Urban Institute chart below (from their [excellent explainer on Baby Bonds](https://www.urban.org/urban-wire/how-baby-bonds-could-help-americans-start-adulthood-strong-and-narrow-racial-wealth-gap?ref=s3t.org)) compares the challenges faced by different groups.
From Urban Institute: How Baby Bonds Could Help Americans Start Adulthood Strong and Narrow the Racial Wealth Gap
The Baby Bonds concept is simple: at birth start an investment process that provides for a financial base when the person enters adult hood. Enable this specifically for individuals whose families will be unable to provide this for them.
Connecticut is the [first state in the nation to adopt the concept](https://portal.ct.gov/OTT/Debt-Management/CT-Baby-Bonds?ref=s3t.org) \- here are the key points of their implementation:
- $3200 deposited in a fund at birth for participants in [HUSKY](https://portal.ct.gov/HUSKY?ref=s3t.org), Connecticut's Medicaid and CHIPs program.
- Beneficiaries can access the funds between ages 18-30.
- Funds can be used only for specified purposes: start a business in Connecticut, buy a home in Connecticut, pay for education, or save for retirement.
[A Once Radical Idea to Close the Wealth Gap Is Actually HappeningHow economist Darrick Hamilton brought baby bonds from Bed-Stuy to U.S. statehouses.BloombergBen Steverman](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-03-17/baby-bonds-eyed-as-way-to-close-u-s-racial-wealth-gap?utm%5Fcampaign=bw&utm%5Fmedium=distro&utm%5Fsource=yahooUS)
## Nature Notes
### On Gardening
You may think of gardening as just a hobby for those who are slowing down in life, but you could also think of it differently. Gardening involves a discipline that is core to just about every kind of success: **the discipline of daily attentive cultivation.** There is no substitute for this kind of discipline: The discipline of daily attentive cultivation is what makes individuals, families, businesses, portfolios and economies grow and thrive. It even [applies to cultivating habits](https://www.forbes.com/sites/shivgaglani/2018/12/31/8-strategies-for-cultivating-your-seed-habit/?sh=fb526983bb68&ref=s3t.org).
More gardening thoughts:
- Texas A&M's [lengthy list of benefits of gardening](https://ellisonchair.tamu.edu/health-and-well-being-benefits-of-plants/?ref=s3t.org) for individuals and communities, with references to supporting research for each.
- [Cultivate Your Well Being Seed by Seed](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/16/realestate/gardening-pyschology.html?ref=s3t.org) article by Margaret Roach.
- Dr Sue Stuart-Smith's book, [*The Well Gardened Mind*](https://www.abebooks.com/Gardened-Mind-Stuart-Smith-William-Collins/30859812476/bd?cm%5Fmmc=ggl-%5F-US%5FShopp%5FTrade%5F10to20-%5F-product%5Fid=COM9780008100735USED-%5F-keyword=&gclid=Cj0KCQjw8%5FqRBhCXARIsAE2AtRatxwaUd2CcEzK-TZjRGGDOiXbi-DlOeUcrI84HjYRP-EUR1Fmpg9MaAq0gEALw%5FwcB&ref=s3t.org)
### Remembering Chandler Robbins
This is past week marked the anniversary of the passing of [Chandler Robbins](https://www.audubon.org/news/in-memory-chandler-s-robbins?ref=s3t.org), [a giant of ornithology](https://www.allaboutbirds.org/news/remembering-chan-robbins-a-giant-of-modern-ornithology/?ref=s3t.org), creator of the [North American Breeding Bird Survey](https://www.pwrc.usgs.gov/bbs/?ref=s3t.org) and the author of the original and much loved bird guide *[Birds of North America](https://www.abebooks.com/servlet/BookDetailsPL?bi=31140871956&cm%5Fsp=SEARCHREC-%5F-WIDGET-L-%5F-BDP-R&searchurl=kn%3DBIRDS%2BOF%2BNORTH%2BAMERICA%2Ba%2Bguide%2Bto%2Bfield%2Bidentification%26sortby%3D17&ref=s3t.org)*. Robbins was [a colleague of Rachel Carson](http://www.rachelcarson.org/mChanRobbins.aspx?ref=s3t.org), and one of the first researchers to pay attention to concerns about DDT. Bird Calls Radio has a [legacy interview with Robbins here](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bcr-083-chandler-s-robbins/id1128139090?i=1000375342685&ref=s3t.org).
Robbins was also the ornithologist who in 1956 banded a female Laysan Albatross who came to be known as Wisdom. Banding (placing a small lightweight ID band around the leg of a bird) allows ornithologist to track individual birds and better understand their migratory movements and lifespans. [Wisdom's lifespan has been extraordinary](https://medium.com/usfwspacificislands/worlds-oldest-known-wild-bird-turns-70-and-returns-to-midway-atoll-23e95f7232e6?ref=s3t.org): She returned once again to her nesting grounds in December 2021 presumably to hatch another chick, now in her 70th year.
> Wisdom returns to Midway Atoll on time to celebrate her 70th birthday! Wisdom, a mōlī (Laysan albatross), is the world's oldest known, banded bird. [#WisdomWednesday](https://twitter.com/hashtag/WisdomWednesday?src=hash&ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org)
>
> Learn more about Wisdom's 2021 return: [https://t.co/sl5PakfbmU](https://t.co/sl5PakfbmU?ref=s3t.org)
>
> 📷 by Dragana Connaughton / Schoolyard Films [pic.twitter.com/hIUtrT1abe](https://t.co/hIUtrT1abe?ref=s3t.org)
>
> — USFWS Pacific Region (@USFWSPacific) [December 15, 2021](https://twitter.com/USFWSPacific/status/1471200154669752321?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org)
### Listening for the Travelers in the Sky
When birds migrate they usually fly at night, taking off just after sundown and flying until just before sunrise. As they fly, they call - presumably to each other as a way to stay in touch.
Nocturnal calls of migrating birds are different from the calls and songs we hear from them during the day. Bill Evans and Michael O’Brien spent years innovating ways to figure out what sounds were coming from what birds, and created a library of migratory bird calls identified by species. For a long time, this collection called the *Flight Calls of Migratory Birds* was only available on CD, but now the [entire library of recordings and information is available online here](http://oldbird.org/pubs/fcmb/start.htm?ref=s3t.org)!
In spring, birds migrate on nights when the wind is from the south, and the weather isn't too chilly. On such nights these amazing travelers will be moving unseen through the darkness overhead by the millions. I hope you can find a quiet spot under the stars and listen for them. With the help of the *Flight Calls* library, you may be able to identify some of them. :)
### Final Note: 8 Ways To Have a Better Day
This week, March 28 will be my Dad's birthday. He passed in 2007\. At his funeral, a former team member of his came up to me. "Your Dad used to be my boss, and he was the best boss ever," he said, and then proceeded to show me a little paper which had advice my Dad had shared with the team. It was titled simply "How to Have a Better Day" and it listed the 8 encouragements you see below.
### Final Note
Thank you again for reading each week, and forwarding to friends! To join the conversation, please visit [S3T Discord](https://discord.gg/DmFwTtss?ref=s3t.org) or [Twitter](https://twitter.com/RalphPerrine?ref=s3t.org). Stay safe and have a good week!
Ralph
*Opinions mine. Not financial advice. I may hold assets discussed.*
### S3T Mar 20: Crypto regroups, $ washing, WW3, future of work, climate spiral, nuthatch tool usage...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-mar-20/
Last updated: 2023-12-07T22:54:02.000Z
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T Mar 13: Bretton Woods 3, The next consumer mkt, Rethinking growth, Wind wins, This summer's frogs...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-mar-13/
Last updated: 2022-03-13T13:30:33.000Z
*As the Ukraine conflict continues amid debate about the future of fossil fuel driven geopolitics and the global money system, new indicators - generation-defining stats - offer glimpses of what is to come. This is our chance to rethink economic growth.*
## Hints of what is to come
Steph Smith has accumulated a set of "generation-defining stats" worth paying attention to. See the thread below, and consider what actions you might take based on this list of mind-boggling changes underway?
> In 1994, Jeff Bezos famously spotted a stat that made him leave his high-paying PE job to start Amazon:
>
> 💡 The Internet was growing 2300% per year.
>
> What are the generation-defining stats of today?
>
> I'll post a few to kick things off...
>
> — Steph Smith (@stephsmithio) [March 8, 2022](https://twitter.com/stephsmithio/status/1500986096745779200?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org)
### Bretton Woods 3?
This week Credit Suisse investment strategist Zoltan Pozsar published [a client note](https://plus2.credit-suisse.com/shorturlpdf.html?v=4ZR9-WTBd-V&ref=s3t.org) (PDF) outlining his concerns that the Ukraine conflict and sanctions create an opening for global trade mischief in the East which could fuel instability and inflation in the West, with the potential demise of the dollar.
Pozsar's thesis - that we are moving into a 3rd phase of "Bretton Woods" where currencies are backed by commodities - was widely covered as bullish for bitcoin and the next financial world order ([Yahoo](https://www.yahoo.com/video/credit-suisse-strategist-says-were-172900306.html?ref=s3t.org), [Nasdaq](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/credit-suisse%3A-ensuing-new-financial-order-will-benefit-bitcoin?ref=s3t.org), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/danrunkevicius/2022/03/10/after-this-war-is-over-money-will-never-be-the-same-what-credit-suisses-shocking-prediction-means-for-bitcoin-and-crypto-prices/?sh=24c04f1e6c25&ref=s3t.org)), though to me this feels premature.
Pozsar's analysis of the rift between sinking prices for Russian based commodities vs. skyrocketing prices of non-Russian commodities seems spot on, but not everyone agrees with Pozsar's analysis of the implications:
- [Alex Turnbull counters with a slightly different take](https://syncretica.substack.com/p/a-reply-to-zoltan-pozsar?s=r) noting the multi-pole trade and shipping arrangements that seem to be emerging, as well as the potential benefits of accelerating the "demise of fossil capitalism."
- [Mona Ali sees this as actually *strengthening* the US Dollar](https://twitter.com/MonaAli%5FNY%5FUS/status/1501168342371123203?ref=s3t.org) as a "money-military matrix backed by legal supremacy" and worries about the perpetuation rather than the demise of fossil fuel hegemony.
Pozsar's note is fairly technical so I recommend [NLW's 3/11 podcast](https://www.coindesk.com/podcasts/the-breakdown-with-nlw/the-bretton-woods-iii-thesis/?ref=s3t.org) where he reads excerpts and provides very helpful context and explanations.
For me, the note and the discussion around it underscore 3 themes:
1. **Crypto Adoption Continues.** Bitcoin will continue to be seen as a hedge for investors concerned about macro. Crypto in general will continue its adoption curve (see Next Consumer Market segment below for reasons why).
2. **Market Volatility.** Rampant uncertainty will force institutional investors - or any investors who can be fired for being wrong - to change their thesis and allocations more rapidly than usual, and this will likely increase volatility.
3. **Digital Products.** Products and experiences that can be delivered and enjoyed *digitally* will continue to grow in appeal in contrast to physical, manufactured products deprecated by supply chain gridlock and inflation. (Reused/recycled/vintage products that are not impacted by global supply chains may also get a boost). More about this in the Next Consumer Market segment below.
### The Next Consumer Market
[Data suggests that crypto adoption will grow 5x](https://cryptoslate.com/internet-vs-crypto-adoption-chart-predicts-1-billion-users-by-2027/?ref=s3t.org) by 2027 to about a billion users up from the current estimate of \~200M. This new generation of consumers will presumably be focused on the 4 kinds of consumer experiences that crypto enables (and the global status quo can't):
- Digital products that enhance the portion of their lives lived online.
- Financial services that offer more flexibility, equal access and cost effective capabilities.
- Physical mobility empowered by borderless digital money that can be sent or used anywhere.
- Participation in the governance and impact of decentralized organizations and projects.
This is economic growth, but it can be a very different kind of growth. In fact, we have the opportunity to rethink growth: to move beyond the false trade off between growing the economy vs. sustaining our natural ecosystems.
Photo by [Markus Spiske](https://unsplash.com/@markusspiske?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### Rethinking Growth
The false trade off between economy vs. ecosystem is based on an underestimation of the different forms economic growth can take. We have pinned the entire economy on an overly narrow definition of economic growth: people spending more and more $ on stuff, generated by a cycle which requires depletion and pollution of the world.
This specific kind of narrowly defined growth comes with 2 side effects:
- Malignant environmental impacts that are hard to reverse.
- Vulnerability to geopolitics which are hard to manage (as current events illustrate).
In the conventional wisdom of many economic decision-makers, this kind of growth must continue at all costs or else the economy will collapse. The rapidly created value and volume in the crypto space suggests otherwise.
Being a consumer of massive amounts of physically manufactured goods is not the only way or even the best way to have a satisfying and secure life. There are ways to experience contentment and wealth that have nothing to do with manufacturing supply chains, shopping malls or landfills.
As the adoption curve of crypto plays continues over the next few years, it will be interesting to see how this plays out.
## Nature Notes
### This Summer's Frogs
Watch for quiet pools of water along streams or low lying areas in forests, and you might get a glimpse of egg clusters of one or more species of water frogs. This family includes the common frogs we see and hear in the summer: Leopard Frogs, Bullfrogs and more. The photos above document an egg cluster I found along New Hope Creek in Durham NC. *Related:* Smithsonian's [14 Fun Facts About Frogs](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/14-fun-facts-about-frogs-180947089/?ref=s3t.org).
### The Wind is Winning
The recent auction of offshore wind development rights [netted $1.5B in bids from multiple bidders](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-hold-its-biggest-offshore-wind-auction-2022-02-23/?ref=s3t.org) planning to harness wind energy sufficient to power 2 million homes. By contrast the recent *drilling rights* auction in the Gulf of Mexico netted less than $200M in bids.
### Final Note
Hope you enjoyed this week's note. Thank you again for reading. Its fine to forward to friends and colleagues. To join the conversation, please visit [S3T Discord](https://discord.gg/DmFwTtss?ref=s3t.org) or [Twitter](https://twitter.com/RalphPerrine?ref=s3t.org). Stay safe and have a good week.
Ralph
*Opinions mine. Not financial advice. I may hold assets discussed.*
### S3T - Mar 6: Big Sorts, Ripple effects, Artists, Poets, RIAs, DACS, Shifting priorities...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-mar-6/
Last updated: 2022-03-06T06:27:59.000Z
*As Ukraine war opens a new chapter of world history, a big sort is playing out, in America and globally. Like-minded nations and like -minded groups are banding together. A new twist for the dawn of decentralization. Will we see a shift in investment priorities?*
Photo by [Samuel Jerónimo](https://unsplash.com/@samueljeronimo?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Ukraine
### The Artists and Poets
- **Art from Ukraine** \- Ukranian artists are [bearing witness with their art](https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/ukraine/2022/03/art-from-a-nation-under-attack?ref=s3t.org) \- poignant selection from current artist living and working in the war zone. Below, a remembrance of Ukrainian Poets from the Soviet era.
> "Ukrainians know the price of freedom. They remember the lives and works of their poets." Myroslav Laiuk on the disappeared writers of the Soviet Union. [https://t.co/NbnTVKMgPM](https://t.co/NbnTVKMgPM?ref=s3t.org)
>
> — Literary Hub (@lithub) [March 5, 2022](https://twitter.com/lithub/status/1500199536949661706?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org)
Photo by [Jonathan Cosens Photography](https://unsplash.com/@jcosens?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### Economic Ripple Effects
It is dawning on leaders - corporate and political - that the Russia Ukraine situation will have a lasting impact. Here are two detailed analyses of how the war disrupts Russia and Ukraine's production of energy, base metals and food, and how the impact of this disruption will be felt around the world:
- Expect [high commodity prices, supply chain disruptions, global inflation and regional recessions](https://www.eiu.com/n/global-economic-implications-of-the-russia-ukraine-war/?ref=s3t.org) says EIU Viewpoint.
- Why the timing of this war - on the heels of a pandemic and runaway inflation - risks an [economic catastrophe warns World Bank](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60610537?ref=s3t.org).
- Global insurance and reinsurance [face significant exposure](https://www.reinsurancene.ws/insurers-face-exposure-to-ukraine-invasion-in-multiple-areas-analysts/?ref=s3t.org).
Companies around the world will be impacted as supply chains are redrawn from global to multi-pole arrangements, and nations execute rapid shifts in energy sourcing, while grappling with inflation and economic uncertainty.
## Web3: Building the next financial ecosystem
### Crypto as a war time asset
Crypto's unprecedented financial capabilities are being [used by both sides in the Ukraine war](https://www.forbes.com/sites/martinrivers/2022/03/02/bitcoin-earns-its-stripes-in-the-war-in-ukraine/?sh=5c940c895628&ref=s3t.org) with [no shortage of confusion](https://www.theblockcrypto.com/linked/136189/purported-ukraine-airdrop-is-likely-fake-and-littered-with-red-flags?ref=s3t.org).
💡
"*Mykhailo Fedorov appealed directly to global citizens – *not their political representatives* – to [donate money for his country’s war effort in bitcoin](https://twitter.com/FedorovMykhailo/status/1497549813205848068?ref=s3t.org) and two other cryptocurrencies*"
([Forbes March 2, 2022](https://www.forbes.com/sites/martinrivers/2022/03/02/bitcoin-earns-its-stripes-in-the-war-in-ukraine/?sh=5c940c895628&ref=s3t.org))
### Crypto as a way to prepare for the future
The global chaos and uncertainty seems to be spurring continued focus on joining and building out the next generation financial ecosystem. Previously the motivation was that the old ecosystem was so inefficient and fueled so much inequality. Today a new emerging motivation to accelerate the next generation financial ecosystem: the current system seems so ill prepared for the realities we face in 2022\.
- Citi exec [Morgan McKenney leaves traditional finance](https://provenance.io/blog/posts/day-one?ref=s3t.org) to join Provenance Blockchain Foundation.
💡
*For the first time ever, we have the ability to transform the infrastructure layer of financial services as opposed to continuing to make incremental improvements on the application layer at the top.* \- [Morgan McKenney on her new role as CEO](https://provenance.io/blog/posts/day-one?ref=s3t.org) of Provenance Blockchain Foundation.
- IMA Financial - a Denver based top insurance broker goes crypto: [plans to offer insurance for NFTs](https://www.investing.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/ima-financial-to-sell-nft-insurance-in-decentraland-2777552?ref=s3t.org).
- 12% of first time home buyers [used crypto to help with down payments](https://www.redfin.com/news/real-estate-cryptocurrency-down-payments/?ref=s3t.org) in 2021 per a Q4 2021 survey.
- 61% of Registered Investment Advisors (RIAs) [are considering or already are investing in crypto](https://twitter.com/rasterlyrock/status/1498364218931744770?s=21&ref=s3t.org) for themselves or their clients (Tweet below).
> We presented DeFi to 400+ RIAs last week, and the polls are in:
>
> 61% are considering - or already are - investing in crypto for themselves/clients
>
> 48% have heard of DeFi
>
> 38% have used a crypto wallet
>
> 19% have used a DeFi application
>
> — Ryan Rasmussen (@RasterlyRock) [February 28, 2022](https://twitter.com/RasterlyRock/status/1498364218931744770?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org)
### Roadmap for Investors: Digital Asset Classification Standard
RIAs and Investors finally have a standard taxonomy for classifying Digital Assets: [The Coindesk Digital Asset Classification Standard](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2021/12/14/coindesk-indices-launches-the-digital-asset-classification-standard-a-roadmap-for-investing/?ref=s3t.org) (DACS).
**Problem this solves:** investors managing a portfolio of digital assets usually want to diversify across multiple sectors. In the crypto space it has been challening to figure out how to meaningfully categorize individual digital assets by their function and likely future place in the economy.
Coindesk's [Digital Asset Classification index](https://www.coindesk.com/indices/dacs/?ref=s3t.org) provides handy sortable list of top 500 Digital Assets organized as a 3-tier system with 6 sectors, 21 industry groups and 36 industries.
DACS provides a roadmap for investing, and also an indication of the mindboggling comprehensiveness of the growing Web3 space.
## Sorting the Messy World Order
### Global Sorting: Kindred Spirits
[Francis Fukuyama predicted](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Qzs1Pe6Zs4&ref=s3t.org) the world would sort into multiple poles. The events in Ukraine and the economic sanctions in response will only accelerate this. Azeem Azar argues this requires "rapid investment in technologies that, frankly, are not dependent on fossil fuels or extended supply chains" ([Excellent essay here](https://www.exponentialview.co/the-exponential-ages-maidan-moment/?ref=s3t.org)).
21st century threats posed by pandemics, economic instability and autocratic rogues will bolster collective action among "kindred spirit" nations notes the [Editor's summary of the 2021 Military Balance](https://www.iiss.org/blogs/analysis/2021/02/military-balance-2021-introduction?ref=s3t.org), the respected annual journal that analyzes and ranks the world's military capabilities. (Highly recommended - not your typical editor's note: meaty analysis of rapidly evolving military technologies and skills).
### National Sorting: People like me
Americans seem to be [moving to towns where people think like they do](https://www.npr.org/2022/02/18/1081295373/the-big-sort-americans-move-to-areas-political-alignment?ref=s3t.org) but is this a good thing? [Uhaul](https://www.uhaul.com/Articles/About/U-Haul-Growth-Index-Texas-Is-The-No-1-Growth-State-Of-2021-26380/?ref=s3t.org) and [United Van Lines](https://www.unitedvanlines.com/newsroom/movers-study-2021?ref=s3t.org) annual migration reports suggest that people moving for reasons other than jobs. One notable theme is moving **to be closer to family.** Will this result in increased polarization of our national discourse? Or will it result in more quality conversations and mutual respect?
### Related themes: shifting investment priorities?
Together these points suggest we may see a shift in investment priorities perhaps accelerated by the Ukraine crisis:
- The reduction in reliance on fossil fuels has been underway, but the Ukraine crisis demonstrates just how much work remains.
- The shift from global to regional manufacturing, and reorganizing supply chains around kindred spirit nations will be complicated and will take time. 100% regional or national independence is unrealistic. Certain materials are likely to still come from "non-kindred-spirit" nations.
Will this translate into an emphasis on investment in "hard capabilities" vs consumer capabilities? If so, how will this impact the availability of capital for the play to earn gaming, memecoin, NFT Ape trading sector? Will we see a growing sentiment of *"Ape JPEG business models can wait, we've got supply chains to fix"*?
View from Old Bynum Bridge, Haw River NC
## Nature Notes
### Holding Banks Accountable for Climate Destruction
Several of the world's largest banks continue to finance climate destruction. Their customers are plotting a mass exodus and transfer of funds timed for maximum impact to occur later in 2022\. Learn how you can get involved at the link below:
[Banking on our Future - Third ActWe want to do something real to protect a livable planet. Money—especially the banks we keep it in—is crucial. Join our pledge to move your money if banks don’t stop financing climate destruction.Third Act](https://thirdact.org/what-we-do/banking-on-our-future/?ref=s3t.org)
Happy to see this engagement with the banking system. As noted in previous editions of S3T, certain economic roles have outsized impacts on other players in the economy - forcing bad choices or enabling good choices. Banks and financial services leaders certainly occupy some of these economic roles.
Those who occupy these roles often have a mental model that accepts a false trade off: that one can have economic growth OR healthy natural ecosystems, but not both. *Growth at all costs* has been the unquestioned dogma. The recent economic shocks are forcing us to rethink growth. More on this next week.
### Spring Bird Migration
In the next few weeks, millions of birds will begin their journey's north to their summer breeding grounds. Birdcast will resume its bird migration forecasts on March 15\.
[BirdCast - Bird migration forecasts in real-timeWhen, where, and how far will birds migrate? Our migration forecasts will answer these questions for the first time.The Cornell Lab of Ornithology](https://birdcast.info/?ref=s3t.org)
### Final Note
As I write this, news is spreading of people who are [booking AirBnB's in Ukraine](https://www.forbes.com/sites/suzannerowankelleher/2022/03/05/booking-airbnbs-in-ukraine-donations/?sh=61d7ae84257f&ref=s3t.org) as a way to get funds quickly to citizens of Ukraine. Unprecedented times. Thank you again for reading, and sharing with friends. I hope you have a good week ahead. Feel free to visit [S3T Discord](https://discord.gg/DmFwTtss?ref=s3t.org) or [Twitter](https://twitter.com/RalphPerrine?ref=s3t.org). Stay safe.
Ralph
*Opinions mine. Not financial advice. I may hold assets discussed.*
### S3T Feb 27: Ukraine context, Inflation unmasked, Talent moves, Health costs, Web3, Reinsurance, Trout Lilies...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-feb-27/
Last updated: 2022-02-27T06:27:59.000Z
*The war in Ukraine intensifies concerns about inflation, recently unmasked but rising for decades, undetected by federal measures. The expanding Web3 landscape welcomes workers and consumer-prenuers with a choice: use crypto to build something better? Or just a new kind of lottery ticket?*
## Ukraine
[Bitcoin donations are pouring in](https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoin-donations-pour-in-to-help-ukrainian-military-fight-russia-over-5-million-in-btc-raised/?ref=s3t.org) to support Ukraine's civilian backed military who often lack basics like body armor. Here are latest [highlights of the crypto community's response](https://cointelegraph.com/news/crypto-community-reacts-to-russia-s-war-in-ukraine?ref=s3t.org) to the war. The [Ukranian Red Cross is accepting donations](https://www.redcross.org/about-us/news-and-events/news/2022/ukraine-red-cross-delivers-aid-to-families.html?ref=s3t.org).
[Why Didn't They Stop It?](https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v44/n04/tony-wood2/why-didn-t-they-stop-it?ref=s3t.org) is is one of the best historical contexts I've seen explaining what led up to the current tragedy playing out in Ukraine (Given its NATO / Western point of view, perhaps it should have been titled "Why didn't WE stop it").
## Finance: Inflation
Inflation [concerns sharpened this week](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/22/business/economy/ukraine-russia-inflation-fed.html?ref=s3t.org) over fears that oil and other supply may be disrupted by the war in Europe, and concerns of [wage-price spirals in the US](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/17/business/economy/wages-rise-labor-shortage.html?ref=s3t.org).
### Wage Inflation: Geographic Moves...
The "Great Resignation" of 2021 (and significant moves) suggests people are increasingly sensitive to cost and taxes:
[Americans Moved to Low-Tax States in 2021The pandemic has accelerated changes in the way we live and work, making it far easier for people to move—and they have. As states work to maintain their competitive advantage, they should pay attention to where people are moving, and try to understand why.Tax FoundationJared Walczak](https://taxfoundation.org/state-population-change-2021/?ref=s3t.org)
As people change jobs they typically negotiate for higher salaries so logically - more job changes = upward pressure on wages.
### And Sector Moves: The Rise of Consumer-Prenuers
Complicating matters, **traditional corporations are now competing for talent (and the *focus* of that said talent) against Web3 entities** which offer increasingly attractive side hustles, as [Squarespace founder Anthony Casalena notes here](As Squarespace founder Anthony Casalena notes,).
💡
*"The decentralized economy, Squarespace predicts, will be all side hustle, all the time."* \- [Joel Stein, NYT](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/13/business/how-did-squarespace-know-podcasts-would-get-this-big.html?ref=s3t.org)
So, you can do something fun, something akin to things you used to do *after work*, but now you can make money doing it. [Google search trends ](https://www.thinkwithgoogle.com/intl/en-apac/consumer-insights/consumer-trends/consumer-trends-shaping-future-today-part-time-preneurs/?ref=s3t.org)show the clear spike in interest. See also [The Rise of Covid-Prenuers](https://www.k2e.com/articles/the-rise-of-covid-preneurs/?ref=s3t.org).
Key point: Web3 is probably a bigger force than most recognize (see Web3 Landscape infographic further below).
### Flawed Inflation Tracking
The makings of our current inflation situation are not recent: **maybe we've had inflation for some time now, and just weren't tracking it completely:**
- Two measures are used - CPI and PCE - [both explained here](https://www.clevelandfed.org/newsroom-and-events/publications/economic-trends/2014-economic-trends/et-20140417-pce-and-cpi-inflation-whats-the-difference.aspx?ref=s3t.org). CPI guides Social Security payments, while PCE guides Fed inflation controls.
- Investopedia has [helpful introduction to the concerns](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/07/consumerpriceindex.asp?ref=s3t.org) about whether or not the current federal methods are able to accurately track inflation.
- A dated but [official position of BLS on CPI](https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-1/consumer-price-index-data-quality-how-accurate-is-the-us-cpi.htm?ref=s3t.org) seems to be "it's mostly accurate, but it could be inaccurate and well, its complicated."
These standard measures seem to have a bias toward a 20th century economy where everyone just consumed manufactured goods, which were produced at lower and lower costs as factories moved to countries with lower wages. The dramatic rise in productivity masked the true inflation that was occurring.
💡
If you look at things that are non-manufactured, *and require human attention and expertise* like healthcare, childcare, education - all of these were experiencing dramatic rises in cost well before Covid.
And, and as this thoughtful piece points out, federal inflation measures [do not track the cost of funding your retirement](https://medium.com/alpha-beta-blog/cpi-is-a-highly-flawed-measure-of-inflation-71769e54898b?ref=s3t.org).
## Healthcare and Inflation
A central chart in [PWCs healthcare cost trend analysis for 2022](https://www.pwc.com/us/en/industries/health-industries/library/behind-the-numbers.html?ref=s3t.org) shows healthcare costs *rate of increase* is slowing as health companies lean into digital. But inflation fundamentals are still concerning:
- Healthcare costs (as paid by consumers) [have outpaced the CPI inflation measure](https://www.pgpf.org/blog/2022/02/why-are-americans-paying-more-for-healthcare?ref=s3t.org) (lot of great charts here, scroll down halfway thru to chart titled "*Prices for medical care typically grow faster than inflation*").
- Pharmaceutical industry profits [continue to be an outlier compared to other industries](https://www.bmj.com/content/376/bmj-2021-067367?ref=s3t.org). As shown below, between 2004-2019 drug spending grew 69%:
> Per capita spending on prescription medicine in the U.S. grew by 69% from 2004 to 2019, compared to 41% on average in comparable countries.
>
> From our chart collection on the KFF-[@PetersonCHealth](https://twitter.com/PetersonCHealth?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org) Health System Tracker: [https://t.co/1hu5goRDTJ](https://t.co/1hu5goRDTJ?ref=s3t.org) [pic.twitter.com/Rtr2gW6GT4](https://t.co/Rtr2gW6GT4?ref=s3t.org)
>
> — KFF (Kaiser Family Foundation) (@KFF) [February 20, 2022](https://twitter.com/KFF/status/1495402364823560196?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org)
- Today [50% of US households carry medical debt](https://www.forbes.com/sites/debgordon/2021/10/13/50-of-americans-now-carry-medical-debt-a-new-chronic-condition-for-millions?ref=s3t.org), up from [19% in 2017 per Census records](https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2021/04/who-had-medical-debt-in-united-states.html?ref=s3t.org).
- Cost of not knowing what to treat: Which condition consumes the most healthcare dollars? Per KFF's excellent [Health System Tracker dashboard](https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/indicator/spending/spending-disease-treatment/?ref=s3t.org), the **largest allocation of disease treatment spend (14%) goes to "ill-defined conditions".**
> Spending on disease treatment [https://t.co/5GZCJzi58h](https://t.co/5GZCJzi58h?ref=s3t.org)
>
> — Ralph Perrine (@RalphPerrine) [February 20, 2022](https://twitter.com/RalphPerrine/status/1495423945046216708?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org)
The inflation concerns highlight the unsustainable approach of the US healthcare's default toward protecting corporate profits by transferring risk and cost to consumers - a bit like trying to keep a leaking blimp airborne by stealing kid's balloons:
- Using moral hazard logic to justify one-sided benefits for companies at the cost of consumers.
- Allowing unclear pricing to drive avoidance of healthcare, which then requires more expensive healthcare interventions later.
- Tracking costs on a purely annual basis, without looking at the spillover effects into follow on years and accepting a distorted understanding about how well we are actually managing healthcare costs.
Sadly, so much of what ails healthcare stems from conventional wisdom handed down over the past several decades, accepted without question. The intensifying inflation concerns offer us a chance to finally get serious about rethinking what is possible for US healthcare. **"All the costs, half the care"** is the sad summary of US healthcare in comparison to other developed nations. It doesn't have to be this way.
## Growing Web3 Landscape
[Excellent infographic](https://twitter.com/sblikstad/status/1497221443200892936/photo/1?ref=s3t.org) showing 250+ Web3 projects and companies organized by business sector. Blikstad notes that this is not complete and may continue to expand. The selection currently seems more focused on consumer entertainment products and services than financial services.
> The Web3 landscape.
>
> We are on the cusp of another paradigm shift, enabled by open data, cryptographic keys, and digital assets. [pic.twitter.com/ZvX7fgadCQ](https://t.co/ZvX7fgadCQ?ref=s3t.org)
>
> — Sofia Blikstad (@sblikstad) [February 25, 2022](https://twitter.com/sblikstad/status/1497221443200892936?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org)
As I studied this chart I was struck by the the sheer diversity of different approaches being tested. Within each category multiple contestants vie to become the #1, 2, 3 players of the next era.
It is fascinating - to me - to study the individual candidate projects and gauge their fitness and likelihood of future success. So much to learn here.
### Tools or Lottery Tickets?
One thing that becomes really clear when scrutinizing these emerging players...there seems to be a very clear choice emerging:
- Building a better set of foundational tools for better human outcomes?
- Building more interesting casinos or lottery tickets?
I'm sure some initiatives might qualify as both. But in the first, there is an optimistic sense that we can learn from current systems and mistakes and lay the groundwork for a better future. In the 2nd there is almost a fatalistic notion of - everything is chaos - so just give me more efficient ways to roll the dice and see what happens.
It really comes down to an important choice: **do you choose to see crypto as a way to build something better? or just a new kind of lottery ticket?**
Trout Lily, Durham NC
## Nature Notes
### Spring Wildflowers Starting to Show Up
This week I found the first (for me anyway) Trout Lilies of the year, starting to bloom here and there forest areas near streams (see Photo above). They are typically seen in March here in NC. Learn [more about Trout Lilies](https://www.wildflower.org/plants/result.php?id%5Fplant=eram5&ref=s3t.org) at Wildflower.org.
### Climate Change - Banks catching up to Reinsurance
The finance world is tuning into climate change, amid growing awareness that [central banks need to be better prepared](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/planetpolicy/2021/11/17/climate-change-will-pose-a-huge-disruption-are-the-worlds-banks-ready/?ref=s3t.org) to address the issue. Projections suggest that climate stress could [pose significant financial threats](https://capitalmonitor.ai/institution/banks/banks-and-regulators-face-off-over-climate-stress-tests/?ref=s3t.org) including "**a 20% increase in loan book losses and a 30% rise in probability of default on credit portfolios."**
The reinsurance industry has been preparing for climate change for decades now, long before it reached public awareness. Reinsurance and insurance preparations are sometimes impacted by governments eager to dismiss climate risk assessments that are inconvenient - as illustrated by the infamous story of the NC legislature outlawing an NC [state agency forecast describing NC coastline risks](https://www.vox.com/22686124/climate-change-insurance-flood-wildfire-hurricane-risk?ref=s3t.org).
[Mitigating climate risk | Swiss ReSwiss Re identified the threat of climate change as far back as 1979 and has been analysing its effects on society and the insurance industry ever since.Swiss Re Group](https://www.swissre.com/risk-knowledge/mitigating-climate-risk.html?ref=s3t.org)
**Some elements of DeFi have begun interesting forays into risk transfer and insurance-like ideas** that have a lot of potential application to reinsurance and financial planning. The governance approaches offered by these blockchain based architectures could ensure that public goods are not threatened by private agendas, and go a long way toward preventing the kind of political gridlock and corporate protectionism that blocks timely effective action. I would love to see more coverage of these in the Web3 landscape mentioned above.
### Nature's Best DJ?
A pair of Song Sparrows have been busy and more visible than usual in our yard, and I wonder if they are making preparations to raise a family here this spring. Here's a fascinating read on the song variability of Song Sparrows and [why Song Sparrows might be Nature's best DJ](https://www.npr.org/2022/02/02/1076963953/song-sparrow-dj-animal-research?utm%5Fsource=pocket-newtab).
### Final Note
Thank you again for reading, and forwarding to friends. Continue the discussion on the [S3T Discord](https://discord.gg/DmFwTtss?ref=s3t.org) or [Twitter](https://twitter.com/RalphPerrine?ref=s3t.org). Stay safe and here's hoping for a better week ahead.
Ralph
*Opinions mine. Not financial advice. I may hold assets discussed.*
### S3T Feb 20: Super Bowl, crypto winter, NFTs for musicians, charities, healthcare, Minefields, Nature restoration, Lemurs, SORA...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/feb-20/
Last updated: 2022-02-20T06:27:59.000Z
*Smoke and Mirrors or enduring value? Amid jittery markets, crypto gets its Super Bowl commercials. How many will get on board due to fear of missing out? How many will join in order to help build a better future? To join those builders working outside the limelight, who are diligently learning, creating and restoring?*
## Finance
**Crypto Super Bowl?**
The [Super Bowl featured multiple Crypto commercials](https://www.theverge.com/2022/2/14/22933456/crypto-super-bowl-commercials-impact-advertisements-analysis-fomo?ref=s3t.org) this past Sunday and some are comparing it to the Jan 2000 Super Bowl XXXIV (a.k.a the "[Dot.com Super Bowl](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com%5Fcommercials%5Fduring%5FSuper%5FBowl%5FXXXIV?ref=s3t.org)") which can be summarized in 3 numbers:
- 14 dot.coms
- spent $44M, and
- 4 remain today.
I remember the dot.com years, and am not sure the comparison to dot.coms is accurate. Yes, both eras have their share of hype. My recollection could be faulty, but it seems that today's crypto space has a lot broader participation from non-institional non-regulated entities than the dot.com era did. It also bears noting that the dot.com bubble and crash was [facilitated by the actions of institutional and regulated investment firms and markets](https://www.thebalance.com/what-was-the-dotcom-bubble-5209336?ref=s3t.org).
The crypto space has grown - and survived its own hair-raising ups and downs - without any meaningful facilitation from the regulated financial establishment. As crypto seemingly achieves its "mainstream moment" some worry the emerging space is already [losing sight of its founding principles](https://spaceworms.substack.com/p/crypto-has-forsaken-its-founding). This week Bitcoin [fell back below 40k](https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/news/nasdaq-100-pulls-bitcoin-btc-002729274.html?ref=s3t.org), prompting fears of a "crypto winter". Vitaly says [a winter might be beneficial](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-19/ethereum-founder-buterin-says-crypto-welcomes-another-winter?ref=s3t.org).
**Continued discovery of NFT use cases**
The range of reactions to this thread are worth reviewing:
> NFTs will start cars, open houses, gate real world events, represent ownership contracts for million dollar real world assets,
>
> The JPEG is a test whether you’re looking beyond surface level.
>
> — Matty (@DCLBlogger) [February 15, 2022](https://twitter.com/DCLBlogger/status/1493490191767830531?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org)
[Charitable organizations are trying NFTs](https://www.theblockcrypto.com/news+/133984/how-nfts-are-raising-money-for-charity?ref=s3t.org), taking a test and learn approach to see if NFTs offer advantages over traditional fundraising approaches.
[NFTs can offer musicians better opportunities](https://decrypt.co/92938/steve-aokimore-money-nfts-decade-music?ref=s3t.org) says Veteran DJ and producer Steve Aoki, far better than established music industry's stingy royalties which he says aren't adequate for paying musicians bills. The above article explains a number of creative ways Aoki plans to leverage NFTs and the Web3 ownership model.
💡
*"OK, in the 10 years I’ve been making music… six albums, and you \[combine\] all those advances, what I did in one drop last year in NFTs, I made more money."* \- Steve Aoki, Feb 10
NFTs have implications for healthcare as noted [here (Fast Co)](https://www.fastcompany.com/90719028/its-not-just-art-nfts-could-revolutionize-healthcare-bioethicists-say?ref=s3t.org), [here (Medical Futurist)](https://medicalfuturist.com/nfts-an-health-data/?ref=s3t.org), and [here (Nasdaq)](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/using-blockchain-to-improve-healthcare-information-management?ref=s3t.org) building on ARK Invest's original 2016 [thesis about the potential of blockchain for healthcare](https://ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/use-case-for-blockchain?ref=s3t.org).
**NFTs may additionally be able to play a role in facilitating initiatives focused on improving health outcomes**, as described in the next segment below.
## Healthcare Minefields
The negativity of American healthcare: a non-stop stream of problem statements and shame narratives fueling what often feels like helpless outrage. There has to be a way to engineer outcomes in a more intentional way.
Fig.1 Healthcare issues are like mines - except they grow and multiply over time.
Using minefields as an analogy, we can think about two mindsets we could choose between, when thinking about how to engineer better outcomes. Figure 1 shows a hypothetical progression of unmet health needs present in a population over 3 years. The red dots represent individual cases of unmet and worsening healthcare needs. The size of the dots represents relative severity and costs.
**Mindset 1: Avoid the Mines**
In the first mindset, unmet health needs in populations are like landmines in a field. The challenge is to avoid having to pay for very expensive health treatments - to tiptoe through that minefield without setting off an explosion of medical expense.
**Mindset 2: Clear the Mines**
The second mindset recognizes that unmet health needs in populations differ from landmines in one key aspect: they grow and multiply over time. Over time, unmet health needs in a population get bigger, more costly and harder to avoid.
- When 1 person is on an unhealthy trajectory, the situation will grow worse over time.
- Unhealthy trajectories replicate themselves: an individual on an unhealthy trajectory is more likely to have children who are also not healthy. They are more likely to be attended by stressed out caregivers who are neglecting their own needs. Relatives or close associates may emulate their unhealthy patterns and habits.
Mindset 1 is purely focused on capital preservation *one plan year at a time* (the phrase "plan year" refers to any 12 month period during which a group of people have coverage).
Mindset 2 may seem to be a more conscientious mindset, but it may also be *more effective at capital preservation over multiple years*. It motivates one to think about the value of clearing the mines vs. avoiding them. Rather than wallowing in moral hazard and cost sharing logic ([which has been debunked](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/hec.4023?ref=s3t.org)), let's figure out the best way to work together to *arrest the progression* of unmet healthcare needs of our communities. This will require corporate and community stakeholders to plan across *multiple years rather than 1 fiscal year at a time*.
It would also require a way to grant membership and track - in an immutable but private way - the health progression of individuals as well as groups such as corporate workforces, communities at risk, or affinitized groups (caregivers of people with specific conditions, workout groups, etc). **This space may offer one or more use cases where NFTs could serve a valuable healthcare function.**
I like Mindset 2 because it feels like a good place to start a conversation about shared goals, the obstacles between us and those goals, and our options for getting there. Obstacles and options are just 2 of the [best questions good mentors ask](https://www.fastcompany.com/40543989/the-best-mentors-ask-these-8-questions?ref=s3t.org) those who want to do better. And we most definitely want to do better.
[The Best Mentors Ask These 8 QuestionsAn essential part of being a good mentor is asking the right questions. Here’s a cheat sheet to get you started.Fast CompanyGwen Moran](https://www.fastcompany.com/40543989/the-best-mentors-ask-these-8-questions?ref=s3t.org)
Photo by [Juan Camilo Guarin P](https://unsplash.com/@jcguarinpenaranda?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Nature Notes
**Veritree, a climate solutions platform, enables nature restoration** using blockchain technologies that provide an optimal approach for enabling restoration teams to collect and manage ground-level data and deliver it directly to all stakeholders. For example Veritree allows people around the world to fund tree planting campaigns, claim trees and track their trees as they grow. Happy customers include Cardano and Samsung:
- Samsung has a very ambitious [2M tree planting campaign](https://news.samsung.com/us/samsung-veritree-plant-millions-trees-fight-climate-change/?ref=s3t.org) in Madagascar (the [world's only native habitat for lemurs](https://www.lemurconservationnetwork.org/learn/why-lemurs/?ref=s3t.org)) planned to complete by end of 2022 Q1.
- [Cardano recently completed](https://ito.veritree.com/?ref=s3t.org) a tree planting campaign.
Learn more and get involved at [Veritree.com](https://www.veritree.com/?ref=s3t.org).
> Wow that is that, we are done, 100,000 planted trees have been sent to their owners.[#NFTree](https://twitter.com/hashtag/NFTree?src=hash&ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org) [#CardanoForrest](https://twitter.com/hashtag/CardanoForrest?src=hash&ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org)
>
> — veritree (@veritree\_) [February 15, 2022](https://twitter.com/veritree%5F/status/1493659709559107584?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org)
**SORA - the Searchable Ornithological Research Archive** is a gateway to our rich heritage of 41 ornithological journals and resources, documenting 120 years of North American bird life and research. Unlike many research repositories, SORA does not require registration or subscription fees for access.
[Welcome to SORA, the Searchable Ornithological Research Archive | Searchable Ornithological Research ArchiveThe University of New MexicoAuthor (contains)](https://sora.unm.edu/?ref=s3t.org)
## Final Note
Thank you for reading! Couple of quick points to share:
- We've launched our Discord channel! [Click here for your invite](https://discord.gg/DmFwTtss?ref=s3t.org).
- If you'd like your art featured on the cover image of S3T, DM me on Twitter @RalphPerrine, or leave a message on the S3T Discord. If selected, you'll get a mention and a link to your website or social page.
Have a great week!
Ralph
*Opinions mine. Not financial advice. I may hold assets discussed.*
### S3T Feb 13 - Valentines edition: Interest Rates, Care Economy, Shared Habitats, Messy Gardens...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/feb-13/
Last updated: 2022-02-13T06:27:59.000Z
*Mixed messages about inflation and interest rates raise questions about where to invest. The answer lies in deepening our understanding of the most neglected aspects of our economy - and ourselves. Where we invest is not so important as how we invest: Empathizing and caring enough to own problems? or just finding ways to deflect them?*
## Economic Outlook
### Interest Rates and Instability
Lots of talk of rising interest rates ([here](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/what-global-banks-forecast-fed-rate-hikes-2022-2022-02-11/?ref=s3t.org) and [here](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/interest-rates?ref=s3t.org)). If that happens, *will it effect crypto prices?* This [Coinbase note says yes maybe](https://www.coinbase.com/bytes/archive/crypto-selloff-explained-january-2022?ref=s3t.org): "If interest rates rise suddenly, investors may shift strategies by *selling* some of those assets for cash, which will be able to earn interest with virtually no risk sitting in a savings account."
But those who take this approach might be disappointed - [banks have lots of cash and don't need to attract depositors](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/11/your-money/savings-rates-interest.html?ref=s3t.org). There are a lot of [mixed messages](https://time.com/nextadvisor/investing/cryptocurrency/bitcoin-price-predictions/?ref=s3t.org) about where BTC's future prices (range of 10K to 100K!). [Credit card debt is up](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/10/credit-card-debt-is-rising-and-possibly-interest-rates-too.html?ref=s3t.org) (perhaps on a seasonal cycle), and at least one goldbug sees a "[wave of bankruptcies and foreclosures](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/a-wave-of-bankruptcies-and-foreclosures-appears-to-be-building?ref=s3t.org)" on the horizon.
Many of the current warnings come with a dish of unsolicited advice about what moves to make. This feels like a time of uncertainty, but it also does not feel like a time to do something rash. As always, it is good to plan carefully, seek trusted advice, and when recieving unsolicited advice consider what the advice giver has to gain from your cooperation.
### Project Hamilton
MIT and the Boston Federal Reserve Bank are working together on research to examine approaches for central bank digital currency. MIT's piece on the effort is worth a read to understand where this might go.
[MIT experts test technical research for a hypothetical central bank digital currencyIn collaboration with the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, MIT experts have begun designing and testing a technical framework through which Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) research can be performed in the U.S.MIT News | Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyPeter Dizikes | MIT News Office](https://news.mit.edu/2022/digital-currency-fed-boston-0203?ref=s3t.org)
### Bitcoin Payments?
[OpenNode](https://www.opennode.com/?ref=s3t.org) is building a platform that makes it easy for merchants to accept Bitcoin. Interesting because it suggests momentum toward using **Bitcoin as a way to pay** \- at the same time the IRS approach treats Bitcoin as property (meaning payments have tax implications beyond just sales tax.
As [this helpful guide](https://www.coinbase.com/learn/crypto-basics/understanding-crypto-taxes?ref=s3t.org) explains, the **IRS tax logic** hinges on the point that in order to spend your crypto, you must first *sell it* in order to convert it into cash - and *that sale is a taxable event.* I'm curious what happens if crypto is transferred without such a "sell event" and whether this is what OpenNode hopes to enable.
[Bitcoin payment processor OpenNode raises $20M from Twitter and othersBitcoin payment processor OpenNode has raised $20 million in a Series A funding round and is now valued at $220 million.The BlockYogita Khatri](https://www.theblockcrypto.com/linked/133649/opennode-raises-bitcoin-payment-processor-twitter-others?ref=s3t.org)
###
## Valentine Theme
Homemade Valentines from Bygone Years
*Hope you have plans for a pleasant Valentines Day!* Accordingly, the following sections share several ways for us to increase our ability to love and care for ourselves, our fellow humans and our world.
In past S3T editions we've explored how our own mental models can cause us to adopt limited views about how the economy must work and to falsely believe that certain problems are just unsolvable, and that human suffering is someone else's problem. **Whether you lead change by advising, building, investing or teaching, you probably sense on some level that we have to break out of those old mental models.**
Breaking out of those constraints becomes possible when we make a deliberate attempt to deepen our understanding on several fronts:
### Understanding How to Own Problems Instead of Transferring Them
There is a deep flaw under much of the "best practices" that guide how we process and solve key problems. You can find this flaw in common everyday examples:
- **Customer support phone line systems** that use robots to tell you to "*press 1 for more options*" and "*tell me what you want...I'm sorry I didn't catch that, do you want me to...* (anything except what you actually want)." These systems *might* in some narrow sense "save money." But they impose an enormous amount of waste and frustration. If customers could retrieve all the time they lose being on hold, they'd have more money to spend on your product.
- **Financial "cost savings" initiatives.** Consider how often efficiency initiatives simply push costs into future quarters or years. In the process they force a company to take longer than it should to achieve key transformations. This often occurs alongside "barbershop budgeting": instead of truly picking priorities, just cut everyone's budget ie *everyone gets a haircut*.
- **Health economics** \- The story of healthcare in America is a story about ensuring the solvency and security of one part of an industry by making others insolvent.
- **Economic development at the expense of the environment** \- temporary enrichment for a few by deleting the natural infrastructure required to sustain air, water and food for everyone.
In each case, we are creating some sort of narrow solution, by imposing a bigger problem on everyone else. Benefiting a few while worsening the overall situation for everyone. Pushing burdens onto others who often aren't equipped to deal with those burdens.
The common denominators:
- Solving an overly narrow definition of the problem.
- Solving for the convenience of one party with no regard for the impact to the other stakeholders.
When we take this kind of approach, we don't really take an ownership mindset. Instead of owning the problem and carefully engineering a way to solve it, we just transfer it. To other parties, or future generations. In doing so, we usually just make things worse.
**Change leaders understand that taking an ownership mentality to own and solve a problem has benefits that narrow problem solving doesn't** \- ***even when the attempt to own and solve the problem fails.*** Every attempt to solve a problem teaches you something about the problem and about your approach. Overly narrow approaches short circuit this and miss opportunities for true improvements and innovation.
### Understanding how to grow the Care Economy
The *Care Economy* \- the collective work that supports the "[development and maintenance of human capabilities](https://blog.dol.gov/2021/08/11/an-economists-view-on-the-care-economy?ref=s3t.org)" is so vital yet so **poorly understood and undervalued**. **A significant percentage of caring work is uncompensated,** or under-compensated. Perfect example: compare the wages of a person who denies healthcare claims vs the wages of the person caring for the patient. Another example: consider the way mother's often have to carry so many different kinds of caring roles, - and as [Peterson and Calarco explain](https://getpocket.com/explore/item/other-countries-have-social-safety-nets-the-u-s-has-women?ref=s3t.org) \- the social safety net we seemingly just expect them to provide with little or no compensation.
[“Other Countries Have Social Safety Nets. The U.S. Has Women.”Anne Helen Petersen and Jessica Calarco discuss how mothers are experiencing and responding to pandemic-related disruptions in their normal routines.PocketAnne Helen Petersen:extract_focal()/https%3A%2F%2Fpocket-syndicated-images.s3.amazonaws.com%2Farticles%2F7471%2F1643158981_61f08e0837545.png)](https://getpocket.com/explore/item/other-countries-have-social-safety-nets-the-u-s-has-women?utm%5Fsource=pocket-newtab)
This brings us to the simple reason why we need to help drive a [shift toward a caring economy](https://real-leaders.com/4-ways-to-shift-toward-a-caring-economy/?ref=s3t.org): Our future payoffs are shaped by the kinds of investments we make. If we [invest equitably](https://inequality.org/facts/inequality-care-economy/?ref=s3t.org) in developing and maintaining the capabilities of humans and the capabilities of nature, we will enjoy certain kinds of outcomes. If however, we invest in activities that diminish or marginalize these capabilities, there will be a very different and very grim set of payoffs.
### Understanding how to Empathize
So much good becomes possible when we take the time to understand each other, the burdens that some must bear every day, and the weariness of constantly being reminded that you're different and not understood. Even well-intentioned actions can sometimes take a toll. Menominee poet and activist [Chrystos](https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poets/chrystos?ref=s3t.org) delves into this specific point in her must-read poem *[Into the Racism Workshop](https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poems/146923/into-the-racism-workshop?ref=s3t.org)*.
## Outdoor Notes
Photo by [Emiel Molenaar](https://unsplash.com/@emielmolenaar?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### Yard and Garden Planning
Spring will be here before you know it! Whether you live the rural, suburban, or urban life, you occupy a *Shared Habitat* with dozens maybe hundreds of other species. Adding native plants and flowers to your yard or balcony will make a positive difference for those species and you! Ideas to explore:
**Cornell** is offering an online course "Gardening for Birds and Nature". Check out the [free preview here](https://academy.allaboutbirds.org/free-preview-gardening-for-birds-and-nature/?ref=s3t.org). Excellent way to get ready for spring. Great last minute Valentine Gift!
The **Audubon Society** maintains a [Native Plants Database](https://www.audubon.org/native-plants?ref=s3t.org) where you can enter your zip code to discover trees, shrubs and flowers best suited for your location.
- Filter the results to find plants that attract butterflies as well as specific bird species you want to attract to your yard.
- Once you find plants you want, the site connects you with local native plant nurseries in your area, or gives you options for ordering online via Audubon.
**Natural but not Messy** \- *All About Birds* offers this excellent [guide for Wildlife Gardens](https://www.allaboutbirds.org/news/tips-to-make-a-wildlife-garden-look-great?ref=s3t.org) that nurture nature without triggering an intervention from your HOA.
[Native PlantsNative plants provide food and shelter for local birds and wildlife. Native plants also require less water and fewer chemicals to maintain, which makes them better for the environment. Best of all,Audubon](https://www.audubon.org/native-plants?ref=s3t.org)
### Final Note
Personally, I think the gloriously tangled chaos of nature is enchanting. But I get that not everyone is there yet. :) Thank you for reading and forwarding to a friend. Hope you are S3T for a great week ahead!
Ralph
*Opinions mine. Not financial advice. I may hold assets discussed.*
### S3T Feb 6: AZ 4 BTC, Crypto Quants, FriesDAO, Music Economics, Value Creation, Biomimicry...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-feb/
Last updated: 2022-02-06T06:27:59.000Z
*As Bitcoin revisits the 40s, DAOs, Investors and states like AZ race to experiment and learn as fast as they can how to enable communities to create enduring value. Lessons from US history, and US music history remind us how enduring value or enduring damage come from leader choices. The story of a carpet flooring company offers an inspiring example of getting it right.*
### AZ considers making Bitcoin Legal Tender.
The initial version of the proposed legislation is short and sweet ([PDF here](https://www.azleg.gov/legtext/55leg/2R/bills/SB1341P.pdf?ref=s3t.org)). Track the progress on the [AZ legislative site here](https://apps.azleg.gov/BillStatus/BillOverview?SessionID=125&ref=s3t.org). **Why this matters:** States are [embracing crypto in spite of Fed hesitancy](https://www.protocol.com/newsletters/protocol-fintech/arizona-crypto?rebelltitem=5&ref=s3t.org#rebelltitem5) \- with some interesting could-be-good could-be-really-bad political possibilities. Will be fascinating to see how Arizona navigates federal and state level regulatory landscape.
Photo by [Brock Koch Nichol](https://unsplash.com/@%5Fb%5Fr%5Fo%5Fc%5Fk%5F?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### Rise of Crypto Quants
F9 [a newly launched crypto hedge](https://www.theblockcrypto.com/linked/133048/former-radkl-employees-leave-to-launch-new-quant-hedge-fund?ref=s3t.org) fund made headlines this week. (Crypto hedge funds focus on trading crypto asset trading strategies vs. investing in crypto startups.) F9's launch - specifically their institutional investors - lends credence to the thesis about how financial engineering will evolve over the next 3-5 years:
- Financial engineering methods are being implemented in blockchain based architectures (Web3), making the jump from Traditional Finance (TradFi) to Decentralized Finance (DeFi).
- The Web3 versions of these methods will see faster innovation cycles (compared to TradFi) thanks to lower costs/friction, as well as the use of machine learning and automation.
- These Web3 versions of financial engineering methods will get applied to new spaces where they haven't been previously used. **One particularly interesting possibility would be crossover into healthcare funding (and insurance) models.**
The article notes that the initial crypto hedge funds outperformed other hedge funds in 2021.
### Fries w That? Bridging Digital Communities with Real World Businesses
[friesDAO Bags 1.3M USDC in First 48 hours of Ongoing Whitelist SalefriesDAO claims it has raised 1.3 million USDC in its ongoing experiment on whether an open community can operate a fast-food enterprise in the real world. Read on for details.CoinQuora - Latest Cryptocurrency and Blockchain News.Karikari Daniel](https://coinquora.com/friesdao-bags-1-3m-usdc-in-first-48-hours-of-ongoing-whitelist-sale/?ref=s3t.org)
FriesDAO hopes to fund, create and manage a fast food franchise as a Decentralized Autonomous Organization directly governed by its customers. To me its a crazy-fun but sensible experiment that has the right ingredients to be a strong platform for learning and testing new forms of governance:
- Easy to understand, familiar operating space (we all "get" fast food restaurants)
- Widely used product category (we all eat/have eaten fast food)
- Accessible options for participation (NFT member cards, etc)
The question from here will be, can they learn how to navigate the path toward becoming a national, sustainable entity? A path with challenges like:
- How to handle complex decisions (property selection, supply chain partners, etc).
- How to address regulatory and safety requirements.
- How to address the evolving spectrum of preferences or needs related to things like healthy menus, ingredient selection, fair trade, and organic vs non-organic.
I think this and other initiatives like it has a good chance of enabling our learning toward new and better forms of organization and governance - and not just for fast food chains.
Why the positive outlook? Well, I'm blessed to own the 1897 *Messages and Papers of the Presidents,* a 12 volume treasury of the speeches and correspondence from George Washington to Grover Cleveland (UPenn's online version [here](https://onlinebooks.library.upenn.edu/webbin/metabook?id=mppresidents&ref=s3t.org)). Reading these, you can't help notice the chaotic precariousness of the early days of our nation. Today we look back with a sense of predestination. Back then, so much was unknown, unstructured, debated, misunderstood - it must have been impossible to feel any sense of certainty about the outcome.
Learning to make right choices is messy business. We are in a similar new beginning today. **The chaos should feel familiar.** Here's to making better choices than we did in the past!
> The plan:
>
> \-Buy/finance fast food stores
> \-Build friesDAO store network
> \-Negotiate contract for free/promo food & perks to friesDAO community
> \-Issue limited NFT member cards to early contributors
> \-Stake [$FRIES](https://twitter.com/search?q=%24FRIES&src=ctag&ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org) & earn more NFT cards
> \-Make history with mass retail real world utility [pic.twitter.com/FiBMqWMquG](https://t.co/FiBMqWMquG?ref=s3t.org)
>
> — friesDAO (🍟,🍟) (@friesdao) [February 4, 2022](https://twitter.com/friesdao/status/1489641813736665089?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org)
Photo by [Darius Soodmand](https://unsplash.com/@dsoodmand?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Music, Economics and Equity
I have been learning about [the life of Libba Cotten](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth%5FCotten?ref=s3t.org), blues and folk artist born in Chapel Hill in 1893\. She was left handed and learned to played the guitar upside down, which led her unique signature picking style. Her songs have been sung by the Grateful Dead, Bob Dylan, Peter Paul and Mary and many others. When she [won a Grammy](https://folkways.si.edu/elizabeth-cotten-master-american-folk/music/article/smithsonian?ref=s3t.org) at age 90, she is alleged to have said "*I just wish I had my guitar with me so I could play a song for you all.*"
Cotten is one of the legendary artists featured in the North Carolina Arts Council's [excellent review of African American Musicians from North Carolina](https://www.ncarts.org/african-american-musicians-north-carolina-made-groundbreaking-contributions-american-music?ref=s3t.org) who made groundbreaking contributions to modern music - often without the support of the established music industry.
[African American Musicians from North Carolina Made Groundbreaking Contributions to American MusicRaleigh, N.C. (February 1, 2019) – The Come Hear NC campaign salutes the many African American musicians from North Carolina that made groundbreaking contributions to America’s most important musical genres as we celebrate Black History Month. Internationally renowned jazz pianists and composers The…North Carolina Arts Council](https://www.ncarts.org/african-american-musicians-north-carolina-made-groundbreaking-contributions-american-music?ref=s3t.org)
These are the heroes who created pathways to success for future generations of artists. The struggle continues today as [Desiree Perez](https://hispanicexecutive.com/desiree-perez-roc-nation/?ref=s3t.org) explains in her [thoughtful challenge to music industry leaders](https://www.rollingstone.com/culture-council/articles/leaders-address-gender-inequality-music-industry-1252067/?ref=s3t.org).
One reason the struggle continues is that every new generation of leaders faces a fresh set of temptations - the old choices dressed in new disguises. Temptations to act upon badly flawed assumptions:
- The assumption that the "engine that creates value" is the same thing as the bureaucracy that offers job security (rarely true).
- The assumption that that inequity is sometimes "a business necessity" or is "just being practical" in order to achieve some value (never true).
In the long view, enduring value gets achieved outside of *and in spite of,* misguided business behaviors. This lesson is applicable to a range of situations today - related to equity as well as environmental responsibility. The story of Interface (in the Outdoor Notes section below) offers reason for hope.
##
## Outdoor Notes
Photo by [Mathew Schwartz](https://unsplash.com/@cadop?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### The Patterns of Nature
Biomimicry or Biomemetics refers to the study of nature for the specific purpose of learning patterns or methods that should be applied to the design of human engineered products or systems. Here are [8 examples of biomimicry we already use or are learning to use](https://www.treehugger.com/amazing-examples-of-biomimicry-4869336?ref=s3t.org).
### Interface - a transformation story inspired by nature
You might not expect the flooring industry to offer examples of good choices and creation of enduring value. Today, Interface offers nature inspired carbon neutral flooring solutions that embody the biomimicry approach. [Here is the fascinating story](https://www.interface.com/APAC/en-AU/about/topic/Biomimicry?ref=s3t.org) of how **Interface reinvented themselves** and evolved from the typical petroleum intensive flooring company to a leading sustainability brand with a superior value proposition.
💡
**[“We realized that we were part of an industrial system – a take, make, waste linear system – that’s literally digging up the Earth and converting it to rubbish. And of course it can’t go on \[and on\]; the Earth is finite.” ](http://toolbox.biomimicry.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/CS%5FInterface%5FTBI%5FToolbox-2.pdf?ref=s3t.org)**
\- Ray Anderson, Founder of Interface
[Biomimicry | About | InterfaceView our modular carpet tile products, create your own floor layouts and learn more at interface.comInterfaceRene’ Kamine](https://www.interface.com/APAC/en-AU/about/topic/Biomimicry?ref=s3t.org)
### Final Note
Thank you again for reading! Its ok to forward this to a friend. Hope you have a good week! Continue the conversation on Twitter @RalphPerrine.
Ralph
*Opinions mine. Not financial advice. I may hold assets discussed.*
### S3T Jan 30: Eth beats VISA, IMF angst, dryer bans, mental models, DAOs, unnamed bugs...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-jan-30/
Last updated: 2022-02-01T01:40:59.000Z
*As the competition between old and new finance heats up, new platforms exceed the performance of old ones, the traditional sector hurls demands and accusations at early adopters navigating tricky paths toward maturity. It all comes down to mental models.*
## Old vs New Finance
### Ethereum exceeds Visa in Transaction Volume
Ethereum handled more transaction volume than Visa in 2021, Ethereum handling $11.4 Trillion dollars in transactions vs. Visa at $10.4T. These figures and more insights from the highly recommended Year in Eth Report - link below.
[The Year in Ethereum 2021 — MirrorBy Josh Stark & Evan Van Ness](https://stark.mirror.xyz/q3OnsK7mvfGtTQ72nfoxLyEV5lfYOqUfJIoKBx7BG1I?ref=s3t.org)
### The "Wasting Energy" Accusation
Heard phrases like "Bitcoin uses more power than (name of some country)"?
This excerpt from the Congressional testimony provided at the [recent hearings on energy impacts of blockchains](https://energycommerce.house.gov/committee-activity/hearings/hearing-on-cleaning-up-cryptocurrency-the-energy-impacts-of-blockchains?ref=s3t.org) offers some context:
“*The banking system requires 573 TWh of power to produce $1 trillion of value. That is about 2.5 times the amount of power required to produce the same amount of value in bitcoin. And that differential may explain why the traditional banking system as an industry has generally been critical of cryptocurrency activities.*”
As this [short read](https://casebitcoin.com/critiques/bitcoin-wastes-energy?ref=s3t.org) and this longer but [data-rich comparison of energy use](https://medium.com/coinmonks/is-bitcoin-really-a-climate-emergency-1f85e51687ab?ref=s3t.org) points out, household items like dryers, air conditioners, gaming systems, **each** consume similar or greater amounts of energy than Bitcoin.
Hmmm. So why no calls for bans on dryers? To take a positive view, I hope that Bitcoin's transparency will spur us to be more inquisitive and conscientious about the energy use of the proliferating material goods and services we take for granted.
Los Planes de Renderos, San Salvador, El Salvador. Photo by [Oswaldo Martinez](https://unsplash.com/@oemartinez?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### Early Adopter making IMF nervous
IMF asking El Salvador to stop using Bitcoin is “like blockbuster asking Netflix to remove movies from the Internet“ - one of the [Twitter memes spawned](https://twitter.com/DeepBlueCrypto/status/1486156967353671685?ref=s3t.org) in the wake of the IMF's request that El Salvador stop using Bitcoin as legal tender.
- This [Reuters piece](https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/imf-asks-el-salvador-drop-bitcoin-more-countries-clamp-down-2022-01-26/?ref=s3t.org) reviews the spectrum of angst among nations nervous about the progression of cryptocurrency capabilities.
- [NLW notes](https://nlwcrypto.libsyn.com/el-salvadors-battle-with-the-imf-is-bigger-than-bitcoin?ref=s3t.org) that maybe the real question is *what is more resilient the IMF or bitcoin*?
El Salvador's willingness to explore options like Bitcoin suggests to me the intensity of their desire to escape from constraints imposed by the IMF policies, which have a long history of criticisms ([here](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/imf-worlds-controversial-financial-firefighter?ref=s3t.org), [here](https://archive.globalpolicy.org/social-and-economic-policy/the-three-sisters-and-other-institutions/internal-critics-of-the-world-bank-and-the-imf/50588-interview-with-joseph-stiglitz.html?itemid=id&ref=s3t.org#942), and [here](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/27/imf-economics-inequality-trump-ecuador?ref=s3t.org)) and [not so compelling defenses](https://ies.princeton.edu/pdf/E146.pdf?ref=s3t.org).
El Salvador has a tricky path ahead - navigating its financial obligations, while also maturing the user experience of its very [buggy and vulnerable Chivo wallet](https://www.theblockcrypto.com/post/131452/el-salvadors-chivo-wallet-keeps-breaking-and-users-are-seeking-answers?ref=s3t.org).
If you want to show your support for El Salvador:
- TripAdvisor's [15 Best things to do in El Salvador](https://www.tripadvisor.com/Attractions-g294475-Activities-El%5FSalvador.html?ref=s3t.org) can help you plan a trip. Maybe visit El Zonte, the beach town [where El Salvador's Bitcoin story started](https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/news/el-salvador-bitcoin-beach-began-with-donated-crypto-fortune-2021-6-1030536847?ref=s3t.org), thanks to a surfer.
- Donate to El Salvador's Habitat for Humanity [here](https://www.habitat.org/where-we-build/el-salvador?ref=s3t.org).
## Mental Models
Photo by [Joshua Rawson-Harris](https://unsplash.com/@joshrh19?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### The mental models for our economy
S3T is interested in the behaviors of key economic *roles* and how individuals and organizations who play those roles can be more active and effective at addressing the complex problems that occupy so much of our time and worry in the world today. These complex problems are rooted in the *mental models* that guide finance, healthcare, environmental stewardship and other aspects of our economy. These mental models consist of a set of capabilities and constraints that tell us what is possible or not possible.
Today's established mental models are based on the building blocks of an earlier era: *How we thought things had to work.* We reasoned about what seemed possible based on the building blocks available to us at the time, and we figured out how to make do with what we had.
When these building blocks change, it gives us the opportunity to rethink our mental models. This is a very important kind of learning for change leaders:
- Learning the new building blocks
- Learning how they enable new mental models
- Sharing and teaching these new mental models to others so they can **be more successful at solving the problems they want to solve.**
### Mental Models for Finance
Today new building blocks are being created in the crypto space - we refer to these as "financial primitives." These new building blocks open the door to new mental models. Its critical for change leaders to take the time to understand these new building blocks such as tokens, DAOs, and NFTs because they enable new mental models for finance.
These new building blocks and mental models already promise advantages over the old models:
- More efficient more automated transaction networks
- More diversity in financial instruments
- Better ability to match those diverse financial instruments to more specific needs
- More inclusion and equity in access to capital and financial services - enable more people to own and grow capital.
### Mental Models for Healthcare
One specific evolution that is fascinating and at the root of many many problems that we spend time trying to solve is that of *capital coordination*. In my previous posts on Moral Hazard in Healthcare, I used the phrase "capital protection" to describe roles that are responsible for managing capital. After hearing [this interview with Ian Lee](https://nlwcrypto.libsyn.com/the-state-of-daos-with-syndicates-ian-lee?ref=s3t.org), I see that the phrase *capital coordination* probably better captures the nature of this important function.
The guiding premise of Ian Lee's work and investing is that Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs) can enable more efficient and equitable Capital Coordination. This is pertinent to healthcare financial strategy for a couple of reasons:
- What we refer to as healthcare complexity could be better described as a *suboptimal solution to a complex capital coordination problem.*
- The platforms and processes of healthcare we rely on for this complex capital coordination are inefficient, and one-sided: offering advantages to one set of players while imposing unsustainable burdens on the other players.
This suboptimal solution has its origins in a mental model based on a set of financial primitives (building blocks) from previous eras.
So if DAO‘s promise a better form of capital coordination how exactly would this work for healthcare and how would it make things better?
- Ability to structure more compelling incentives for economic behaviors
- Ability to offer broader financial services and access to funding options
- Better ability to manage, distribute and monetize risk.
Regulatory Note: DAOs do have legal and compliance requirements to navigate. Here are some starting points for learning about them:
- Thorough but crisp [summary of the current legal landscape](https://www.mondaq.com/unitedstates/fin-tech/1140040/legal-issues-confronting-formation-and-operation-of-a-decentralized-autonomous-organization-dao?ref=s3t.org) for DAOs and crypto.
- The State to Watch: Wyoming is [making it easier for DAOs](https://sos.wyo.gov/Business/Docs/DAOs%5FFAQs.pdf?ref=s3t.org) to do business in the state.
So far it seems that the only safe way to get clear on these requirements is to work directly with regulators. Let them know what you're trying to design, invest the time to understand their goals, and involve them in the design.
## Outdoor Notes
Photo by [Andrew Ridley](https://unsplash.com/@aridley88?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### First Known Photos of Species
This fascinating project, titled [The First Known Photographs of Living Specimens](https://www.inaturalist.org/projects/first-known-photographs-of-living-specimens?ref=s3t.org) is a running journal of the first known photographs of 2900 species (and counting). Mind you, this is *first photos ever,* not the first photos that happened to be submitted to a specific platform.
- Photos and notes from each specimen
- Map with markers where observations occurred. More widely distributed than you'd think - not just remote far away places.
This project offers an amazing view into how our understanding of the natural world continues to unfold.
Telamona Reclivata
**Sort of Related:** The photo above shows a leaf hopper Telamona Reclivata a leaf hopper which as yet has no English name. I was excited to discover that I was one of the first few observers to photograph this little bug and share via the iNaturalist app. I think I was maybe #8\. This is not the same as being the *first ever* to photograph a living specimen, but it was very exciting just the same! Learn more about this insect at i[Naturalist ](https://www.inaturalist.org/taxa/774913-Telamona-reclivata?ref=s3t.org)or [BugGuide](https://bugguide.net/node/view/128837?ref=s3t.org).
### Mental Models related to the Value of Nature
I do hope that someday we are able to arrive at a general agreed upon consensus (a mental model!) of how to properly value the exquisite treasures of nature. The dominant mental model accepted by economic policymakers is unfinished:
- The harvestables of nature have been given narrow market-centric valuations.
- The services of nature have not been valued at all. They are instead assumed to be ever-present free conveniences in infinite supply.
This is a topic that I plan to unpack in future editions.
**Final Note**
Hope you are all S3T for a great week! Continue the conversation on Twitter @RalphPerrine. Thank you for reading, and please feel free to forward this newsletter to a comrade.
Best wishes in your endeavors.
Ralph
*Opinions mine. Not financial advice. I may hold assets discussed.*
### S3T Jan 23: CBDC 20 Questions, Capital Protectors, Evolution of Governance, Financial Primitives, Bird Names, Irruptions and more...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-jan-23/
Last updated: 2022-01-23T06:27:59.000Z
*As crypto and tech markets fall, inflation and employment rises, and the Fed mulls CBDCs, the evolution of governance continues with new questions about the responsibilities of capital managers, and new opportunities for leaders who want to implement change faster.*
## Finance
### Federal Reserve CBDC Paper
The Federal Reserve has released its long awaited paper on Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC) titled *[Money and Payments: The US Dollar in the Age of Digital Transformation](https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/money-and-payments-20220120.pdf)*. In their release statement, the Fed positioned the paper as a first exploratory step, to solicit and review "a wide range of views as it continues to study whether a U.S. CBDC would be appropriate."
Pros and Cons:
- Pros: A CBDC might help preserve the international role of the dollar, boost financial inclusion, enable rapid and cost-effective delivery of wages, tax refunds,and other federal payments.
- Cons: A CBDC might cause systemic risks, put other assets at a disadvantage, be a target of hackers. The paper noted also that the government may struggle to balance privacy and data protection vs. the desire to prevent financial crimes.
Other Highlights:
- Cash use in the US is down from 40% of transactions in 2012, to 19% in 2020\. The decline is more rapid in other countries.
- Central banks are researching "offline CBDC payment options" (TEE, PKI in combo with NFC, Bluetooth as described [here](https://www.ledgerinsights.com/visa-proposes-offline-payment-solution-for-cbdc/?ref=s3t.org)) to enable better security, and continuity during disasters.
The release statement invites readers to share their views by answering 20 questions on [this comments form](https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/forms/CBDC).
## Healthcare
### Moral Hazard Part III
Caveat: The language here may seem unfair and accusatory to the passionate and deeply caring individuals working across the different industry verticals in healthcare. To be clear, we're attempting to describe the *economics in play*, not the intentions and character of the individuals working inside the systems guided by those economics.
Photo by [Andre Taissin](https://unsplash.com/@andretaissin?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
**Who are the "bad actors?"**
As described last week, moral hazard in healthcare is described as if *patients* were the "bad actors", and that charging them more, or complicating their care pathways is just a necessary evil for counteracting the behaviors of these "bad actors."
It seems like such an obtuse position, in the face of the national crisis of healthcare affordability.
But for the financial establishment of healthcare it could also be very convenient line of financial logic: it justifies raising prices and taking a greater and greater share of GDP, while blaming things on "consumers."
But what do we mean by the *financial establishment* of healthcare?
This is where it is important to be very clear about who or what we might actually accuse:
**Do not** think in terms of individuals, companies or even healthcare industry segments.
Think in terms of economic *roles*.
There is a specific role that exists across the different verticals of healthcare:
- That role in some way is **responsible to preserve and grow capital**.
- This role is not evil. It has a legitimate purpose.
- This role holds profound influence over healthcare processes and outcomes.
- This role is subject to moral hazard.
Look at any government healthcare program, any hospital system, insurer, just about any team or organization in healthcare, and you will find a person or team that is required to play this role.
**The Role that is subject to Moral Hazard**
Let's call this role "Capital Protector", and let's define it:
*A Capital Protector is an entity that has a responsibility to preserve and grow capital. The Capital Protector entity may directly own the capital, or may be managing capital entrusted to it by another entity. The Capital Protector entity could be an individual, an organization, or even a set of affiliated organizations who have a shared interest in preserving a set of capital.*
What are examples of Capital Protectors at work?
- For-profit healthcare companies working to provide profits to shareholders.
- Healthcare VCs try to generate largest possible revenues and ROI for new medical devices and treatments.
- Health system finance teams trying to ensure healthy balance sheets.
- Health insurers trying to maintain required reserves.
These entities have a large set of protective instruments at their disposal. A few examples (each of these are actually *categories* of protective instruments):
- [Political connections](https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2021/07/big-pharma-largest-lobbying-spender-biden-crackdown/?ref=s3t.org) to ensure that rules are written in their favor.
- [Insurance barriers](https://coveragerights.org/insurance-barriers/?ref=s3t.org) that can be used to reduce how much is paid to cover a patient's treatment cost.
- Regulation designed to [protect investors](https://www.sec.gov/about/what-we-do?ref=s3t.org) and [protect capital](https://mcmahonsolicitors.ie/capital-protection/?ref=s3t.org).
**So where does the moral hazard arise?**
If we state what moral hazard is in simple terms...
*If I am given some kind of advantage, I may be tempted to take advantage of it in an inappropriate manner.*
We can restate the moral hazard premise as follows:
*Moral hazard in healthcare exists when capital protectors use the large set of protective instruments at their disposal to obtain one-sided benefits for themselves at the expense of individuals who need healthcare.*
**To summarize**
As we learned in previous posts, the conventional healthcare industry thinking on moral hazard holds the following:
- Moral hazard exists and that it is a risk to the industry
- **Consumers** are the cause and source of this moral hazard
- Onerous mechanisms like cost and complexity are appropriate and necessary for managing this moral hazard
**It turns out that Capital Protectors are actually the source of moral hazard in healthcare.** *This raises the interesting question: what might be the "onerous mechanisms" appropriate and necessary for managing this moral hazard?*
And is an onerous control mechanism actually what is needed? Or should it be a change in healthcare that reframes the risk/reward equation and aligns our shared interests in a more productive equitable way? **And what are the responsibilities of capital managers to their societies?** I want to develop this idea further in future editions.
If we want to achieve this kind of foundational change in healthcare, then what is the most timely and effective approach for doing so? The next segment on Implementation Paths starts to answer that.
Different governance models offer different pathways for implementation.
## Implementation Paths and the Evolution of Governance
As change leaders, we naturally seek the fastest path rapidly solve the complex and urgent problems of our world.
Learning how to solve a complex problem requires attempts at implementing solutions, learning from the implementation attempts, and iterating or pivoting until the desired outcomes are being achieved.
Given this, it's helpful to know what implementation platforms are available and which ones allow for the *most empirical learning in the least amount of time* (and money).
Implementation platforms have a direct relationship with governance, and governance is evolving as shown here:
**Implementation Path #1: Decree**
The world's oldest implementation platform - where a king, religous leader or similar power decrees that something will be built, invaded or enforced - still has relevance today. Authoritarian governments follow this playbook when they do things like ban bitcoin mining, for example. Large transnational companies can also weld this kind of power. Limitations of this approach:
- It stems from centralized ideation that is narrowly focused on serving the needs of those in power.
- It overlooks or suppresses the needs and human rights of its dependent populations.
- You can't use this option unless you are the one with the power.
**Implementation Path #2: Legislation**
Typically the first thought of - implementation platforms is the law. Write policies and legislation and get it enacted into law. Once the law is passed, think tanks and universities conduct studies reviewing the impact and cost-benefits of the policy, and recommend changes (or often, further study 🙂 ).
**Implementation Path #3: Software Release**
Today we have a newer, faster way of implementing large solutions (and sometimes large problems): Building an releasing a platform or app - think Facebook, TikTok, Slack and think about the huge influences they have had. Emering blockchain architectures seem set to push this even further, by combining code, currency and governance into a single programmable layer.
**Compare the speed of these platforms**
Legislation is the slowest Implementation Path. Consider Healthcare Reform:
- FDR mulled and then abandoned a healthcare agenda,
- Eisenhower briefly floated a National Reinsurance Program,
- Hillary Clinton proposed reforms that were rejected.
- Finally the ACA implemented a set of measures that achieved notable improvements in national coverage, but continue to be debated and questioned by partisan players.
In addition to being the slowest implementation platform, legislation is also - thanks to the partisan bedlam that surrounds any meaningful change - the least likely to allow emperical learning and clear conclusions. Policy does not lead. It lags and gridlocks. Over and over lawmakers struggle to understand the changes being put in motion by technology - whether from the rise of the Internet, or more recently the rise of blockchain based ecosystems.
By contrast consider the rapid rise of [transnational corporations](https://bostonreview.net/articles/beyond-the-nation-state/?ref=s3t.org) like Facebook/Meta - and the impactful platforms and new patterns it implemented. From a small group of college students to a collective user base larger than most nations of the world, developing its own currency and demonstrating more soft power and influence than most nations of the world.
Today the emerging decentralized blockchain architectures, and *the *financial ecosystems* being built on top of them*, show indications of unleashing change in even bigger and faster ways. These architectures do not simply offer building blocks of code - the building blocks are **both code and at the same time programmable financial primitives. That's why they represent an evolutionary forward step in governance.**
The point is, software releases offer much faster more scalable implementation paths than legislation can. If you are serious about solving the pressing problems in your community, nation or world, your options for faster implementation are getting better all the time.
**It feels "full circle" but with a twist:** If you go way back, one of the earlier implementation platforms were the decreed charters that European kings granted to shipping companies. The charters granted wide powers enabling these companies to exploit the natural resources of colonized territories, provide increased tax revenues for the crown, and - where possible - interfere with or contain the colonial profit-making of other European nation-states.
The implementation platform that enabled this colonial era was primarily a *financial* one. The roots of our modern insurance industry derive from this era.
As we stand on the threshold of the next generation financial ecosystem it feels a little like we have come full circle.
But this time, instead of working solely for the health and wealth of a few European kings, we might - *just might* \- have a chance to be focused on enabling a healthy wealthy world.
### Watch: DAOs and Politics
As election season heats up over the course of this year, watch for political teams/ candidates experimenting with ways to leverage DAOs for fundraising.
## Outdoor Notes
### Bird Names
Nightjars, Shearwaters, Noddies, Loons ...Why are birds given such outlandish and odd names?
*Birds of the World* has embedded a new [exhaustive resource on bird names](https://birdsoftheworld.org/bow/news/new-feature-the-key-to-scientific-bird-names-edited-by-james-jobling?ref=s3t.org), based on the life work of James Jobling.
[Birds of the World - New feature: The Key to Scientific Bird Names, Edited by James JoblingWhy is each species named what it is? And what do these names reveal about the birds themselves?Lynx Edicions](https://birdsoftheworld.org/bow/news/new-feature-the-key-to-scientific-bird-names-edited-by-james-jobling?ref=s3t.org)
If you love to haunt used book stores (online or in person), here is a treasure to keep an eye out for: Earnest Choate's *Dictionary of American Bird Names* has a similar resource featuring bird names with their meaning and origins.
### Irruptions
Why is Tyler Hoar's [Finch Irruption Report](https://finchnetwork.org/winter-finch-forecast-2021-2022-by-tyler-hoar?ref=s3t.org) required reading by so many people with bird feeders in their yard?
Well, North America is home to a variety of finch species that depend on wild berries, pine or spruce cones or seeds for survival. When these food supplies vary, "irruptions" (migratory movements further south than normal) - may bring to your yard some winter birds you usually don't get to see in the lower 48\. Snowy Owls are another species that can irupt further south than normal.
*Thank you again for reading. Its ok to forward this to a friend. Have a great week!*
Ralph
*Opinions mine. Not financial advice. I may hold assets discussed.*
### S3T Jan 16: Bears, Hawks, Moral Hazard Vectors, Hospital Capacity, IBWO...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-jan-16/
Last updated: 2024-12-16T12:03:26.000Z
*Whether or not you think the crypto bear market is a cub on its way out, or a monster here to stay, change continues and along with it, rethinking of key concepts like moral hazard. This issue highlights some recommended reads for change leaders focused on solving complex issues rooted in our commonly accepted economics.*
### Crypto Finance
Photo by [Delaney Van](https://unsplash.com/@delaneyvan?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### Sizing the Bear
BTC finally had a [positive week in 2022,](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/01/12/first-mover-asia-crypto-prices-rise-on-better-than-expected-us-inflation-news/?ref=s3t.org) after weeks of sliding downward. Is this the start of a longer bear market? or the end of a mini bear? What root causes are in play and how might they help us "size the bear"?
If you want to believe this is a mini-bear and its just about over - you could argue that these were the main causes:
- Christmas gift giving - Crypto investors had a good year and decided to splurge a little.
- End of year portfolio rebalancing - investors check asset performance, keep and cull accordingly.
- We didn't have the [Grayscale Trust NAV boost](https://www.coindesk.com/podcasts/the-breakdown-with-nlw/are-gbtc-unwinds-bullish-or-bearish-for-bitcoin?ref=s3t.org) we had in Dec 2020\.
If you think its a bigger bear that's going to stick around for a while, here are some supporting arguments:
- Taxes: Investors are digesting the [evolving tax code](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/28/how-to-prepare-for-2022-tax-season-and-potential-crypto-regulation.html?ref=s3t.org). (See also American Institute of CPAs [tax note](https://www.thetaxadviser.com/issues/2021/dec/cryptoassets-2022.html?ref=s3t.org)). Clarity and confusion alike can impact behaviors and ultimately prices.
- Inflation Hawks and Doves: [Hawkish Fed notes](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/fed-may-need-hike-rates-faster-reduce-balance-sheet-quickly-minutes-show-2022-01-05/?ref=s3t.org) and related uncertainty about inflation: if inflation continues to rise, and if larger institutional investors see BTC, ETH etc as safe havens then crypto prices could rise dramatically. If inflation appears to be tamed, then large investor accumulation of crypto might proceed at a more measured pace.
In either scenario we will continue to have Growing Pains: highly visible events that cause doubt or confusion.
- Experiments gone wrong - the disappearance of an admittedly mischievous shape-shifting NFT prompted [this head-scratcher of an expose](https://moxie.org/2022/01/07/web3-first-impressions.html?ref=s3t.org).
- Religious wars over [different flavors of crypto](https://www.coindesk.com/layer2/2021/12/23/what-jack-dorseys-beef-with-web-3-is-really-about/?ref=s3t.org), like [the Dorsey Andreessen feud.](https://nypost.com/2022/01/07/jack-dorsey-trolls-marc-andreessen-again-as-crypto-feud-escalates/?ref=s3t.org)
Add all that up and what do you get? Non-stop surprises. But those surprises offer new opportunities.
> 1st tweet got our account banned.
>
> 2nd tweet got us to 10K followers.
>
> This is the 3rd tweet.
>
> — OPERATOR ◓ (@operator) [January 14, 2022](https://twitter.com/operator/status/1481878967443652608?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org)
### Decentralized Retail: Not so smooth Operator
Speaking of surprises, this tweet seen on Jan 8: "*23 days til we kill Amazon*". Apparently this got [Operator](https://www.operator.com/?ref=s3t.org) banned. But they're [back with more tweets](https://twitter.com/operator?ref=s3t.org). Operator's web site says they are building "a decentralized store where anyone can participate and everyone governs together."
### Getting to Legal Clarity
I’ve noted in this newsletter how much legal and regulatory uncertainty hangs over this space and the need for informed consideration of the risks and issues . The [Global Blockchain Business Council ](https://gbbcouncil.org/?ref=s3t.org)recently launched a new journal the Blockchain Law Journal that will probably become a valuable contributor to clarity - [read the inaugural issue here](https://gbbcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/IJBL-1.pdf?ref=s3t.org)!
## Healthcare
Photo by [Ehud Neuhaus](https://unsplash.com/@paramir?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
### Moral Hazard Part II
*Last week we noted that Healthcare is very tangled up in the "moral hazard" logic of the 18th century, and that its probably time to realize that this construct does not serve us.*
In 2005, Malcom Gladwell published [this essay](https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2005/08/29/the-moral-hazard-myth?ref=s3t.org) which provides a good history of how moral hazard found a home in the health policy logic in the US, but interestingly *not in other western nations*.
[The Moral-Hazard MythThe bad idea behind our failed health-care system.The New YorkerCondé Nast](https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2005/08/29/the-moral-hazard-myth?ref=s3t.org)
The moral hazard section starts about 1/3 way thru - highly recommended read for healthcare leaders.
[This paper](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6128379/?ref=s3t.org) offers a different take, and a window into the interestingly selective way moral hazard is applied to the players in US healthcare system.
The paper acknowledges dissenting opinions, but asserts that moral hazard does exist in health insurance:
"Just like almost any other good, individuals increase their healthcare utilization when the price they have to pay for it is lower."
But healthcare is not just "like any other good." The purchase and selection process is very different. Patients aren't selecting and making purchase decisions the same way they are when they are shopping for rice or apples.
In "normal" retail there are a range of options with clear differences and clear pricing. All of the options are functional and typically backed by a return policy. One brand of rice might be more expensive than another, but I can make dinner with either one. I might like one better than the other. If the rice has bugs in it, I can return it for a refund. Whatever the scenario, I can manage to get some rice and not go hungry. This, as you know, is not how healthcare works.
- Significant portions of healthcare purchases are not discretionary. They are forced by life threatening events, and fear of harm to self or a loved one. This is not the difference between "nice rice" and "cheap rice". This is the difference between getting what you need or not making it.
- Patients rarely have a full understanding of the price at the time they are making their purchase decisions. Neither does anyone else for that matter.
- A very small percentage of patients drive a very large percentage of the spending.
- Patients are not really agents capable of controlling their spending. They have no view into how pricing is calculated, or how it aggregates. In other words, they are not really in a position to be incentivized by price manipulation.
Curiously, these realities are acknowledged directly or indirectly throughout the paper, but never crystallized into actionable information. The concluding paragraphs for dissolve into hazy statements surrounding one premise: demand responds to pricing, so if we just make patients pay more, then demand will subside.
In the face of national crisis of healthcare affordability its an incredibly obtuse position to take.
How many times have you heard, "We didn't go to the doctor because we had no idea what it would cost"? Vague unclear pricing causes people to avoid care. **Delayed utilization forces a more expensive form of utilization later.**
Plot twist: I am inclined to agree with the writers that moral hazard may exist in healthcare. But perhaps **the vector for moral hazard is not the patient.** *Will dig into this next week!*
### Current Status: 1 in 5 hospitals critically understaffed
[Look up your state here](https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/workforce/19-of-us-hospitals-critically-understaffed-21-anticipate-shortages-numbers-by-state.html?ref=s3t.org). NC faring better than most, thanks to stronger than average healthcare community and infrastructure.
###
## Outdoor Notes
Ivory Billed Woodpecker Specimens, Carnegie Mellon Museum of Natural History
[https://www.discovery.com/nature/the-ivory-billed-woodpecker-is-officially-extinct--along-with-22](https://www.discovery.com/nature/the-ivory-billed-woodpecker-is-officially-extinct--along-with-22?ref=s3t.org)
### Ivory Bill Woodpecker - a New Search
This [beautifully illustrated story map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/1dd0a8c84ff6416bbbe2c82d521a7811?ref=s3t.org) provides a excellent overview of the known history of the Ivory Billed Woodpecker as well as locations of sightings (with nice color mapping of where the most frequent sightings occurred). This, our largest woodpecker was [pronounced extinct](https://www.discovery.com/nature/the-ivory-billed-woodpecker-is-officially-extinct--along-with-22?ref=s3t.org) in 2021, but a new search "[Mission Ivorybill](https://www.facebook.com/MissionIvorybill)" is being organized with plans to start Feb 1, 2022 in Lousiana. February is not a bad time to search for an elusive species, since the leaves are off the trees.
Personally, I worry that the bird is extinct, but would be thrilled to be proven wrong. Declaring the bird extinct allows precious funds to be focused on saving other species whose survival could have a higher postive impact to our ecosystems. And, I've known folks who devoted a lot of time to trying to find this bird, only to run out of time and money.
A perhaps more accessible dream: If you're passing through Siloam Springs, Arkansas, stop in for a drink or a burger at the [Ivory Bill Brewing Company](https://www.theivorybill.com/?ref=s3t.org).
*Have a great week! Feel free to forward this to a friend or team member! You may have to move this email from your "promotions" to your "primary" folder (in Gmail) or otherwise mark it important in other email clients.*
Ralph
*Opinions mine. Not financial advice. I may hold assets discussed.*
### S3T Jan 9: NFTs > Pics, POAP, Digital Wallets, Moral Hazard, Bird Bling...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-6/
Last updated: 2022-11-17T02:56:51.000Z
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T - Jan 2, 2022: What 2021 Set the Stage For, Future of Money, Crypto Diversity, Talent Migration, Medical Costs vs Safety, 230K Species...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-5/
Last updated: 2022-01-02T06:28:00.000Z
*Happy New Year! Designing and working toward a wealthy world takes multi-disciplinary teamwork. That's why S3T (pronounced "set") seeks to connect change leaders and arm them with timely insights about the sets of factors impacting the health and wealth of our world. Best wishes in your endeavors in 2022!*
## 2021 was crazy and it set the stage
Cryptocurrencies hit all time highs, [Bitcoin doubled its value](https://time.com/nextadvisor/investing/cryptocurrency/bitcoin-price-history/?ref=s3t.org), NFTs took the world by storm and a hastily assembled decentralized autonomous organization named ConstitutionDAO raised 40M in 1 week, barely losing a Sotheby's auction. By the end of 2021, [1 in 4 Americans owned crypto.](https://cointelegraph.com/news/grayscale-finds-that-over-25-of-us-households-surveyed-currently-own-bitcoin?ref=s3t.org) 59% of them [bought crypto for the first time](https://news.yahoo.com/crypto-survey-details-many-u-151515624.html?ref=s3t.org) this year.
Amid these events, institutional investors, regulators and lawmakers began in earnest educating themselves and preparing for the **next generation financial ecosystem** \- [Alex Thorn provides helpful context](https://nlwcrypto.libsyn.com/the-year-of-institutional-bitcoin-feat-galaxys-alex-thorn?ref=s3t.org).
The future of money is now officially a hot topic: Here are [20 Predictions about the future of money](https://www.coindesk.com/business/2021/11/29/the-future-of-money-20-predictions/?ref=s3t.org). Highly recommended for finance leaders. The contrast between the potential of blockchain based financial platforms vs. the signs of decline in legacy finance systems is getting hard to ignore. Related:
- Low nominal long-term interest rates are [raising new risk management challenges for insurers](https://voxeu.org/article/economics-regulation-and-systemic-risk-insurance-markets?ref=s3t.org).
- Chris Wood on [hedging against collapse of US dollar standard](https://m.economictimes.com/markets/cryptocurrency/jeffries-chris-wood-raises-bitcoin-allocation-by-5-at-cost-of-gold/articleshow/87535972.cms?ref=s3t.org)
- Ray Dalio's [3 Big Worries](https://www.barrons.com/articles/ray-dalio-interview-china-inflation-us-civil-war-51639180030?ref=s3t.org) (Inflation, China US conflict, US Civil War)
## Talent Migration
Photo by [Julia Craice](https://unsplash.com/@jcraice?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
**Is the "Great Resignation" the beginning of a Great *Migration*?** Crypto companies are [hiring like crazy](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/20/technology/silicon-valley-cryptocurrency-start-ups.html?ref=s3t.org), and a new generation of workers are [taking a closer look at what a job is worth](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/28/business/gen-z-workplace-culture.html?ref=s3t.org) and looking for better ways to make a living.
Is this - as Raoul Pal notes - the cohort of 86 million millenials hitting their 30's [exiting the old system](https://twitter.com/raoulgmi/status/1454612829248630790?s=21&ref=s3t.org) headed for the next one?
If so, they aren’t the only ones: [Alex Good writes](https://twitter.com/goodalexander/status/1454642355131326467?s=21&ref=s3t.org) that crypto is “an officially sanctioned way for the ruling class to get their money out of the system before a barrage of financial repression comes into effect via CBDCs. The $ has to flow out before 2025 when all transactions are tracked, and fully taxed.”
## Crypto More Diverse Than Traditional Finance (So Far)
Photo by [Nicolas J Leclercq](https://unsplash.com/@nicolasjleclercq?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
This past summer NORC at the University of Chicago noted that crypto is "[opening up investing opportunities for more diverse investors](https://www.norc.org/NewsEventsPublications/PressReleases/Pages/more-than-one-in-ten-americans-surveyed-invest-in-cryptocurrencies.aspx?ref=s3t.org)" and provided some early supporting data.
Next, Pew Research's latest [report on crypto adoption in the US](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/11/11/16-of-americans-say-they-have-ever-invested-in-traded-or-used-cryptocurrency?ref=s3t.org) includes a fascinating breakout of crypto investors by diversity groups:
- 13% White
- 18% Black
- 21% Hispanic
- 23% Asian
In December A16Z commissioned [another survey which showed a similar spread](https://fortune.com/2021/12/09/who-owns-crypto-bitcoin-dogecoin-etherum-ripple/?ref=s3t.org).
Contrast this with traditional investing statistics: The [2020 Black Investor Survey](https://www.benefitspro.com/2021/03/25/young-black-americans-are-closing-the-investment-gap-but-other-financial-disparities-remain/?ref=s3t.org) showed traditional stock investment rates at 53% for Black investors vs. 76% for White investors.
"What's driving us to crypto is the fact that we've been locked out of the traditional financial system," [says Cleve Mesidor](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaredcouncil/2021/12/30/crypto-creators-and-hbcus-gained-black-culture-momentum-in-2021/?sh=6e695b7f2516&ref=s3t.org) of the Blockchain Association.
Clearly we are very early in the evolution and adoption cycle of crypto, but this provides yet another data point in the growing body of evidence that decentralized finance offers more access and equity than traditional finance.
## Healthcare: Medical Safety
Photo by [Olga Guryanova](https://unsplash.com/@designer4u?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
As noted in [Healthcare Innovation](https://www.hcinnovationgroup.com/clinical-it/patient-safety/news/21246308/leapfrog-adds-several-measures-including-postoperative-sepsis-to-scorecard?ref=s3t.org), the Leapfrog Group's 2021 Hospital Safety data indicates that significant inconsistencies remain in care quality and safety. Look up your 2021 updated state or local [hospital safety grades here](https://www.hospitalsafetygrade.org/?ref=s3t.org).
As noted below, the cost vs. quality gap is becoming *very* noticeable:
> "Overall, 9 in 10 Americans say people are paying too much for the quality of health care they are receiving. "
>
> More via [@CBSNews](https://twitter.com/CBSNews?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org) [https://t.co/Imi2SwhWfT](https://t.co/Imi2SwhWfT?ref=s3t.org)
>
> — The Leapfrog Group (@LeapfrogGroup) [December 28, 2021](https://twitter.com/LeapfrogGroup/status/1475919882520776713?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org)
Why this is relevant: There are a lot of contributing factors to medical safety issues, many of them economic and financial in nature. High cost is no guarantee of quality.
Suffice to say, if we were to design healthcare today, knowing what we know now, it would look nothing like it does today. Legacy healthcare, like legacy finance, seems engineered to provide benefits to an inner circle while the rest of the world remains in the dark about why things are the way they are. This is a topic I look forward to unpacking further in future editions of S3T.
## Outdoor Notes
"The Rocks" at Kure Beach, NC
### Must see: Year End Review of iNaturalist
In 2021 the iNaturalist community documented and gathered data on over 29 million observations of 230,000 different species worldwide (fascinating [annual report dashboard and stats here](https://www.inaturalist.org/stats/2021?ref=s3t.org)). iNaturalist is an open-source online platform with mobile apps that make it easy to identify and gather information about any species, and document for science the biodiversity of our planet. iNaturalist data was used in [591 research initiatives and papers](https://www.gbif.org/resource/search?limit=50&contentType=literature&year=2021&literatureType=journal&gbifDatasetKey=50c9509d-22c7-4a22-a47d-8c48425ef4a7&ref=s3t.org) this year alone.
### Wolves increase road safety
The central finding of [this fascinating study](https://www.pnas.org/content/118/22/e2023251118?ref=s3t.org) is that the presence of wolves changes the behavior of deer, so they stay away from open areas including open roadsides. I'm in favor of a shared habitat model of coexistence with nature, and support the intent of the study. I do wonder if there are some problems that still need to be worked out. For example:
- Many rural roads go thru areas that are heavily forested and not cleared at all - in these areas, does the central premise of the paper still hold true?
- Does the presence of wolves near well travel roadways increase the likelihood of accidents involving wolves?
That said, this is an important and worthwhile line of continued exploration. Wildlife-vehicle collisons (WVCs) cause [sobering numbers](https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/publications/research/safety/08034/exec.cfm?ref=s3t.org) of animal deaths, vehicle damage and human injury every year. Pandemic lockdowns and the shift to remote work did seem to [reduce WVCs significantly](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/article/decline-road-kill-pandemic-lockdown-traffic?ref=s3t.org). Good reason to slow down - you never know what you might encounter.
### For your 2022 Birding Plans
Apple maps has created [this interactive map](https://guides.apple.com/?lsp=9902&pg=17261842065639933637&ref=s3t.org) featuring some of the best National Parks for birding. I learned about a few parks I wasn't familiar with. There are other places that I'd like to see featured in this guide.
Have a great week! Feel free to forward this to a friend or team member!
Ralph
*Opinions mine. Not financial advice. I may hold assets discussed.*
###
### S3T.4 Crypto reg proposals, helping RIAs get BTC, Why SV missed crypto, Inclusion for art, Political diversity and more...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-4/
Last updated: 2021-10-31T17:18:13.000Z
*Welcome to S3T (pronounced "set"). In each issue we examine sets of changes that are impacting the financial, social and natural ecosystems of our world. This month we look at how the emerging decentralized financial ecosystem is impacting regulators, financial advisors, VC and the traditional art world.*
## Crypto Industry Proposes Regulatory Approaches
As federal regulators struggle to craft a coherent response to crypto, the US crypto industry is putting forward its own regulatory proposals this fall - 3 notable reads:
- Coinbase launched their *Digital Asset Policy Proposal* (dApp) with the tagline "Safeguarding America's Financial Leadership." and published the proposal as a [PDF you can download here](https://assets.ctfassets.net/c5bd0wqjc7v0/7FhSemtQvq4P4yS7sJCKMj/a98939d651d7ee24a56a897e2d37ef30/coinbase-digital-asset-policy-proposal.pdf?ref=s3t.org), as well as a [Github repository](https://github.com/coinbase/digital-asset-policy-proposal?ref=s3t.org) to encourage comments and contributions.
- A16Z also published [How to Win the Future](https://a16z.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/How-to-Win-the-Future-1.pdf?ref=s3t.org) \- a policy approach that focuses on the emergence of Web3.0 and sees crypto as one its manifestations. See also A16Z's [policy principles for stablecoins](https://future.a16z.com/stablecoins-stability-and-financial-inclusion?ref=s3t.org).
- FTX published [Policy Goals for Crypto Market Regulation](https://blog.ftx.com/policy/policy-goals-market-regulation/?ref=s3t.org) focused on 4 principles (customer & investor protection, market integrity, financial crime prevention, manage systemic risks).
The three harmonize reasonably well, and come amid continuing mixed signals from Washington.
In contrast, the EU has just rolled out [a proposed crypto regulatory framework](https://www.linklaters.com/en-us/insights/blogs/fintechlinks/2020/october/the-eus-proposal-to-regulate-the-crypto-industry-what-how-and-when?ref=s3t.org) \- the Markets in Crypto Assets (MiCA) - targeted to go into effect in 2024\. The framework is part of the EU's recent Digital Finance Strategy and was developed based on 2 [public consultations that ran from Dec 2019 to March 2020](https://www.linklaters.com/en/insights/blogs/fintechlinks/2019/december/ec-ramps-up-focus-on-fintech-with-an-expert-report-and-two-public-consultations?ref=s3t.org).
Photo by [Pierre Borthiry](https://unsplash.com/@peiobty?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Helping Investment Advisors get up to speed on Bitcoin
Registered investment advisors (RIAs) have been largely mute about cryptocurrencies. The most forward leaning RIAs I've heard would go no further than something like "invest only what you can afford to lose, and no more than 1% of your overall investment portfolio." Fine for a quick elevator conversation, but leaves a lot unanswered.
To address the educational needs of RIA's, Coindesk has launched a [newsletter aimed at investment advisors](https://www.coindesk.com/newsletters/crypto-for-advisors/?ref=s3t.org), and in a piece that seems to be aimed at investment advisors, Adam Blumberg reviews [top 3 motivations for investing in Bitcoin](https://www.yahoo.com/now/revolution-macro-micro-three-ways-130000065.html?ref=s3t.org).
[Revolution, Macro and Micro: Three Ways to Look at a Bitcoin InvestmentUnderstanding the three main investment theses of bitcoin will help you not only allocate to it for clients but also parse through cryptocurrency news, analysis and commentary.YahooAdam Blumberg](https://www.yahoo.com/now/revolution-macro-micro-three-ways-130000065.html?ref=s3t.org)
**Related:** Bank of America launches crypto services and a crypto research unit, saying Bitcoin and crypto "[too big to ignore](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/bank-of-america%3A-bitcoin-and-cryptocurrencies-are-too-large-to-ignore-2021-10-06?ref=s3t.org)".
The unique DIY culture surrounding crypto made it difficult for the established financial advisors, service providers and regulators to find a starting point for learning (outside of their own self initiated experiments). The next item below digs into this a little more.
## Why Silicon Valley (and most everyone else for that matter) has been slow to understand Crypto
The following tweet thread by Dan Held provides a helpful overview of why the crypto space slipped under the radar of most VCs: **building the base layer of the next financial ecosystem is *different*** from the standard platform innovation playbooks that Silicon Valley has gotten good at over the years. Good insights on the limits and blind spots of Silicon Valley and those who take their cues from SV.
> 1/ Why Silicon Valley Doesn't Get Bitcoin
>
> Over the last 12 years of it’s existence, Bitcoin has been misunderstood by Silicon Valley which has led to many cringe worthy moments as they’ve endorsed silly ideas and even worse, scams.
>
> — Dan Held (@danheld) [January 16, 2021](https://twitter.com/danheld/status/1350508724272599041?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org)
---
Photo by [Mayur Deshpande](https://unsplash.com/@mayur%5Fdeshpande?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Diversity and Inclusivity in Art
Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) are enabling [a more diverse set of artists to reach collectors](https://www.forbes.com/sites/rebekahbastian/2021/10/24/the-diversity-equity-and-inclusion-potential-of-nfts/?ref=s3t.org) without going through the gatekeepers of the traditional art world (whose aggregate curation is \~80% the work of white male artists).
Stripe, which enables card payments for NFT platform [Nifty Gateway](https://niftygateway.com/?ref=s3t.org), has released stunning figures on the [growth of the creator economy](https://stripe.com/blog/creator-economy?ref=s3t.org). While the majority of creators are still making [small amounts of income](https://news.artnet.com/market/think-artists-are-getting-rich-off-nfts-think-again-1962752?ref=s3t.org), the average has [risen fast over the past 4 years](https://www.theblockcrypto.com/data/nft-non-fungible-tokens/nft-overview/average-price-of-an-nft-sale?ref=s3t.org).
The net net: A broader more diverse group of digital creators are seeking ways to earn a living by *doing what they do best*, rather than forcing themselves to fit into a material goods economy that is running out of steam.
**The traditional art world is coming along too:** This fall MoMA reveals a new collection, promising "[a broader, more inclusive view](https://www.moma.org/calendar/groups/74?ref=s3t.org) of modern and contemporary art."
---
## Books
*The Dawn of Everything: A New History of Humanity* offers a fascinating panoramic "tour of political diversity" as [Daniel Immerwahr notes in his thoughtful review of *Dawn*](https://www.thenation.com/article/society/graeber-wengrow-dawn-of-everything?ref=s3t.org)*,* which is the last book by David Wengrow and David Graeber (author of *Bullshit Jobs*). The authors of *Dawn* focus on 2 key themes:
- Disputing the notion that the nation state was an unavoidable evolutionary end state, insisting that other options were/are feasible.
- Reviewing a wealth of fascinating often overlooked examples of alternative societal arrangements down through history.
Fascinating book review (and book) for anyone who wants to learn about the implications of decentralized networks of finance and governance - and gain a deeper understanding of the **false tradeoff logic that drives the socialism vs capitalism political food fight.** It is especially relevant for those who are taking an active role in the build out of *the next financial ecosystem*. In this build out, **the distinction between builders vs leaders** \- as articulated in Umair Haque's eye opening 2009 [Builder's Manifesto](https://hbr.org/2009/12/the-builders-manifesto?ref=s3t.org) \- seems more relevant than ever.
---
Inverted photo of New Hope Creek, Oct 2021
## Outdoor Almanac
400 Million Birds were estimated to be on the move, migrating south, the night of Oct 16, 2021\. During migratory months (spring and fall) on any given night several hundred million birds may be in flight.
> [ View this post on Instagram ](https://www.instagram.com/p/CVC9vzprgXr/?utm%5Fsource=ig%5Fembed&utm%5Fcampaign=loading)
>
> [A post shared by Wake Audubon Society (@wakeaudubon)](https://www.instagram.com/p/CVC9vzprgXr/?utm%5Fsource=ig%5Fembed&utm%5Fcampaign=loading)
Note the request in the post above to turn off lights. Here is what happens to migrating birds when they are disoriented by lights during their night migration flights:
> Some of the 226 dead birds I picked up this morning while window collision monitoring for [@NYCAudubon](https://twitter.com/NYCAudubon?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org). 205 from [@3NYWTC](https://twitter.com/3NYWTC?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org) and [@4WTC](https://twitter.com/4WTC?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org) alone. Many others swept up, inaccessible, or too mangled to collect. 30 injured to [@wildbirdfund](https://twitter.com/wildbirdfund?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org). If you’re in NYC today, be careful where you step. [pic.twitter.com/RTjm82NIpy](https://t.co/RTjm82NIpy?ref=s3t.org)
>
> — Melissa Breyer (@MelissaBreyer) [September 14, 2021](https://twitter.com/MelissaBreyer/status/1437812554017947664?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org)
You can help by turning off outdoor lights between sundown and sunrise, and by sharing this concern with your local businesses and elected representatives.
---
*Thank you for reading!*
### S3T.3 VC gets Crypto! Hamsters too! Top Emerging Risks, Money Transfer Disruption, Regulatory FUD vs Learning, Market Cap Moves, and more...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-3/
Last updated: 2021-10-03T21:02:04.000Z
*In this issue we look at key economic shifts underway in our financial ecosystem and how investors, regulators and incumbents are wrestling with new issues and opportunities posed by these changes. Feel free to forward to other interested readers.*
## How Crypto is Impacting the Financial Ecosystem
**VC Making Record Investments in Crypto in 2021** VC funding for blockchain and crypto startups [surpassed previous annual records in June 2021](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-18/venture-capital-makes-a-record-17-billion-bet-on-crypto-world?ref=s3t.org), amid several developing items:
- Evidence that [the Blockchain VC Industry is maturing](https://www.cryptechie.com/p/crypto-vc?ref=s3t.org) (note however it still only represents about 1% of the global VC industry)
- Crypto trading firms themselves are [starting to function as VC](https://www.theblockcrypto.com/news+/119360/why-the-largest-crypto-trading-firms-are-becoming-venture-capitalists-as-well?ref=s3t.org)s
- Maybe - just maybe - we are [underestimating the opportunities](https://versionone.vc/resetting-venture-capital-return-expectations-is-10x-the-new-3x/?ref=s3t.org).
On this last point, I'm torn. I think there is a lot of "cash in the system" driving higher valuations. Strange side note: even [Hamsters are getting great returns](https://cryptopro.news/1d3yiNnM3dpFn1Bb3T3IoG?ref=s3t.org) these days.
**Crypto Market Cap Moves July vs Oct 2021**
Top 10 Cryptocurrencies for October 2021 [as reported by Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/top-10-cryptocurrencies/?ref=s3t.org):
1. Bitcoin
2. Ethereum
3. Tether
4. Cardano
5. Binance Coin
6. XRP
7. Solana
8. USD Coin
9. Polkadot
10. Dogecoin
Several [notable moves since July 2021](https://www.analyticsinsight.net/top-cryptocurrencies-by-market-cap-in-july-2021/?ref=s3t.org):
- Cardano moved up from #5 to #4\.
- Solana moved into the Top 10, taking the #7 spot.
- Uniswap fell out of the Top 10
- Dogecoin fell from #8 to #10.
Notable that the 2 moving upward are widely [seen as competitors to Ethereum](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/solana-vs.-cardano%3A-which-is-the-better-ethereum-killer-2021-07-13?ref=s3t.org). To me they both semi-competitive *and* semi-complementary. All 3 of these represent the rise of **revised financial ecosystems**, platforms that provide compute and transactional services to support the next generation of our economy.
**Money Transfer Disruption Looms** \- Cryptocurrencies show early evidence of offering benefits that traditional cross-border payments companies can't match: Lower fees and *immediate* transaction settlements 24/7\. By contrast, traditional money transfer companies take 2-4 days or more, charge much higher fees, and are often only available during banking hours.
Until now, cryptocurrencies had one drawback: they lacked the large amount of liquidity (access to usable funds) required to facilitate heavy flows of funds between different national currencies.
This is rapidly changing. Asheesh Birla shows how [the liquidity of the crytocurriency world is approaching that of the traditional money transfer industry](https://cryptopro.news/7PF2csjR40O8qBgaPJukMP?ref=s3t.org), fueled by sharp growth in the market cap of stablecoins - from $4B in 2019 to over $100B by mid 2021\. This piece also offers a helpful glimpse into the interesting relationship between stablecoins and cross border payments.
The upshot: Crypto's disruption of the money transfer industry could benefit working families around the world by enabling faster, lower cost transactions. One thing to watch: cryptocurrency-based transfers rely on stablecoins, and stablecoins are currently attracting what seems to me to be an excessive level of fear and suspicion from regulators, as covered in the Deep Dive further below.
### Risk and Insurance
**Top Risk Concerns for Insurers.** AXA has just released its [Future Risks Report for 2021](https://www.axa.com/en/magazine/2021-future-risks-report?ref=s3t.org). Last year Pandemics were at the #1 spot in the list, but this year Climate Change regained the top spot it held in 2018 and 2019, followed by Cybersecurity at #2 and Pandemics at #3\. Each year the AXA Future Risks report highlights top 10 emerging risks of concern for insurers. What is notable to me about this list is that it does not reference the significant risks associated with populations and their health.
**Healthcare: Limitations of Value-Based Care.** Broad consensus from healthcare providers is agreement that we need to graduate from pure fee for service (FFS) model, but health insurers generally need to do a better job [engaging healthcare providers in co-designing a model that is actually sustainable](https://www.hcinnovationgroup.com/policy-value-based-care/accountable-care-organizations-acos/article/21238890/efficiency-one-key-to-success-in-valuebased-care-engagement?ref=s3t.org). A central issue has been - how to handle risk in a sustainable way. As with the population health concerns I alluded to above, there is a lot to unpack here - and I plan to in future issues.
---
Photo by [Ibrahim Boran](https://unsplash.com/@ibrahimboran?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit) / [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm%5Fsource=ghost&utm%5Fmedium=referral&utm%5Fcampaign=api-credit)
## Deep Dive: What to make of regulatory FUD over Stablecoins (and crypto in general)
### Potential Benefits
As HBR notes in this balanced piece, [the economic benefits of stablecoins are significant](https://hbr.org/2021/08/stablecoins-and-the-future-of-money?ref=s3t.org):
- Stablecoins can enable lower cost safer, realtime and more competitive payments that what the current status quo banking system offers.
- Stablecoins could "rapidly make it cheaper for businesses to accept payments and easier for governments to run conditional cash transfer programs (including sending stimulus money). They could connect unbanked or underbanked segments of the population to the financial system."
In addition, cryptocurrency traders typically rely on stablecoins as a tool for capitalizing on volatility swings in crypto markets. For example, if the price of a crypto asset spikes, an investor might convert a portion of holdings to a stablecoin. When the price of the crypto asset drops the investor might do the reverse: convert that portion from stablecoin back to that crypto asset.
### But, we're still worried...
In spite of the benefits and utility, there seems to me to be an excessive level of fear uncertainty and doubt (FUD) among federal and central bank stakeholders:
- That stablecoins could negatively [impact not only crypto markets but also capital markets](https://www.wsj.com/articles/risks-of-crypto-stablecoins-attract-attention-of-yellen-fed-and-sec-11626537601?ref=s3t.org) (WSJ)
- That stablecoins [could compete with the US Dollar](https://www.forbes.com/sites/steveforbes/2021/07/20/will-stablecoins-replace-the-us-dollar-why-the-fed-is-worried/?sh=52049e865de7&ref=s3t.org) (Forbes), or with a central bank digital currency.
- Or [cause financial instability](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/18/the-fed-is-worried-the-rise-of-stablecoins-could-impact-financial-stability.html?ref=s3t.org) (CNBC)
As a result federal and central bank regulators are considering a heavy arsenal of [approaches to address these concerns](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/17/business/economy/federal-reserve-virtual-currency-stablecoin.html?ref=s3t.org). And the FUD is not only directed at stablecoins but at the crypto space in general, all under the notion of protecting investors and consumers.
As [NLW notes in this podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-breakdown/id1438693620?i=1000536555073&ref=s3t.org), crypto as an asset class has higher volatility and higher performance yet never has required a government bail out. *So who exactly is asking for protection?*
> Crypto traders never ask for a government bailout.
>
> Bitcoin solved this.
>
> — Steve Burns (@SJosephBurns) [September 9, 2021](https://twitter.com/SJosephBurns/status/1435950050887315460?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org)
Near the end of [this Bloomberg article](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-22/crypto-risks-existential-threat-as-u-s-crackdown-gathers-steam?ref=s3t.org) see the quote from Celsius Network's CEO saying he believed "bank executives had called the SEC and state regulators to complain about crypto lending firms."
### Current vs Hypothetical Pain
As I read all the pieces coming out on crypto regulatory moves, the lack of balance this conversation is striking - So many remarks seem to ignore the very real pain of the dysfunctional current system, while giving disproportionate weight to hypothetical pains of the emerging system.
One gets the impression that the comfortable incumbents who benefit from the status quo have already "priced in" the pain and dysfunction of the current system, and concluded that since it doesn't impact them personally, they can safely ignore it when making comparisons to the emerging system.
Don't get me wrong, I believe the regulatory community has conscientious, compassionate individuals who are dedicated to serving the public good, and for them, these comments are a cheap shot.
These comments are not directed at them, but rather at a behavior that we should have a conversation about.
**A direct appeal to regulators**
The headline commentary from the regulator community so far screams a near total absence of first hand experience, hypothesizing from afar, opining on things one has clearly not taken the time to personally learn and test.
This is ironic because the crypto space is hard wired for participation, with low barriers to entry. Nothing stops anyone of us from trying this stuff and learning firsthand.
And specifically from me to you: if you are a financial regulator, you most likely *can afford* \- better than most Americans - to test and learn first hand. Open a crypto account, invest in altcoins and stablecoins and see for yourself. Put your bitcoin up as collateral, make yourself a loan. Convert between alt and stablecoins. Create and trade NFTs and see what that's all about. Try all the different things the rest of us are trying.
In other words, *participate.* Learn along with the rest of us. You'll see that there is a lot here that is far from perfect and frankly frustrating. And you'll see where *the real issues* can occur, and *the real work and governance* needs to happen.
There is a world of good and a world of hurt that can come out of this space. It is not without risk. But it is important enough to the future of the world's economies and the future of individuals and families, to warrant you and me personally investing time in first hand learning. If we take a *test and learn* approach our input will be way more relevant and helpful than the hypothesizing of those who never actually got involved.
A potential objection of someone with regulatory responsibilities might be: "*Hey I'd love to participate and test and learn, but will I be creating a conflict of interest if I do this?*" If that is your active concern, one option is to create or support innovation safe harbor legislation, [like this example](https://financialinnovationnow.org/2019/10/21/fin-applauds-rep-mchenrys-financial-services-innovation-act-of-2019/?ref=s3t.org).
And know this: People in the US and other countries are testing and learning because they **don't have a strong sense of confidence in the current system**. On a gut level, most Americans are clear on one thing: you can't rely on wages alone. You've got to have some kind of access to capital that will grow in value or else you won't have what you need for you and your family. That reality is driving what the comfortable like to label - condescendingly - as "reckless retail investor behavior".
The emerging crypto space is immature and full of rough edges, but already it appears to be more capable, more efficient, more open, more accessible and equitable than anything we've seen from the current financial ecosystem, with its voluminous history of corruption, racial bias, onerous fee structures, lopsided inequity and its undeniable track record of reserving meaningful upside for its centralized inner circle while tossing crumbs and fees to the rest of the world.
Our opportunity is to see how to maximize the good and prevent the bad - and we can do that together with a test and learn approach.
---
## Outdoor Almanac
*What's happening outside these days*
### October 9: October Big Day with eBird
> [#OctoberBigDay](https://twitter.com/hashtag/OctoberBigDay?src=hash&ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org) is next weekend! We invite you to go [#birding](https://twitter.com/hashtag/birding?src=hash&ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org) on Oct 9th & share what you find with [#eBird](https://twitter.com/hashtag/eBird?src=hash&ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org). By taking part, you’re also joining in [#GlobalBirdWeekend](https://twitter.com/hashtag/GlobalBirdWeekend?src=hash&ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org) and celebrating [#WorldMigratoryBirdDay](https://twitter.com/hashtag/WorldMigratoryBirdDay?src=hash&ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org). Where will you be eBirding on Saturday? [https://t.co/nnmA8rqtY2](https://t.co/nnmA8rqtY2?ref=s3t.org) [#birds](https://twitter.com/hashtag/birds?src=hash&ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org) [pic.twitter.com/RS0jedohup](https://t.co/RS0jedohup?ref=s3t.org)
>
> — eBird (@Team\_eBird) [October 2, 2021](https://twitter.com/Team%5FeBird/status/1444301150300348421?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=s3t.org)
---
Thank you again for reading! Best wishes for progress and success in your endeavors, and hope you can get outdoors to enjoy the changing of the season.
*Disclaimer: Opinions mine. Information provided here is not intended to serve as investment advice.*
### S3T.2 Wild West Emerging Financial Ecosystem, Roadmap of risk and reward, Black Chipmunks, BirdCast and more!
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-2-wild-west-emerging-financial-ecosystem-roadmap-of-risk-and-reward-black-chipmunks-birdcast-and-more/
Last updated: 2022-11-17T02:52:03.000Z
_This post is for paying subscribers only._
### S3T:1 Mavericks, Mainstreamers, Moths and Manta Rays: Crypto volatility mid year review, Inflation, Math based trust, Covid risk calc...
URL: https://www.s3t.org/s3t-1-mavericks-mainstreamers-moths-and-manta-rays-crypto-volatility-mid-year-review-inflation-math-based-trust-covid-risk-calc/
Last updated: 2023-12-08T18:12:54.000Z
_This post is for paying subscribers only._